From msnbc.com's Tom Curry
The “Gang of Six” proposal unveiled Tuesday was meant, in part, to convince the bond markets and the ratings agencies such Standard & Poor’s that a majority in Congress will do what’s needed to rein in spending, raise more revenue, and, thus, cut budget deficits.

President Barack Obama embraced the proposal, calling it “a very significant step” because a bipartisan group of senators had declared, among other things, that “we've got to be serious about tackling health care spending and entitlements in a serious way.”

Obama’s reference to health care spending was a reminder of a topic that hadn’t been mentioned a lot in recent weeks amid all the talk of deficits, debt, and default.

Two summers ago, members of Congress were launching a historic debate over paying for health care.  Now they’re consumed by a debate over the debt.

But health care costs haven’t gone away. In fact, the debt and deficit dilemma is largely a question of how bring the growth in health care costs into line with the growth rate of the nation’s income.

On the topic of health care costs, if gaining credibility with the bond markets is the point of the “Gang of Six” effort, then investors will just have to wait for more information.

The plan is more a statement of intent than a binding mechanism for reining in health care costs.

Among some Democratic leaders, there was, at best, hesitation.

“Yesterday a lot of us were calling over to Sen. Conrad’s office and others asking for more detail,” Rep. Chris Van Hollen, D- Md., said on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” Wednesday. “And they said that details will be forthcoming in the next couple of days. It’s really hard to get our caucus to focus on this without some of the details.”

The summary released Tuesday says the plan would order the Senate Finance Committee to abolish the unworkable Sustainable Growth Rate (SGR) formula, which was enacted in 1997 in an attempt to control Medicare cost growth. The SGR proved futile because Congress – including some members of the “Gang of Six” -- kept voting year after year to circumvent it.

The plan also would require the Finance Committee to, within six months, figure out how to come up with health care savings on the order of $500 billion over 10 years. But the plan orders the committee to do that in a way that could “maintain the essential health care services that the poor and elderly rely upon.” How to reconcile those two goals is left unexplained.

The “Gang of Six” plan also says: “Review total federal health care spending starting in 2020 with a target of holding growth to GDP plus one percent per beneficiary and require action by Congress and the President if exceeded.”

To reach the “Gang of Six” goal, Congress in 2020 would have to cut the growth rate of health care costs at least in half. But the outline offers nothing on how Congress might do that. 

Intriguingly the plan also calls for unspecified reductions in “tax expenditures for health,” which likely means the tax break for employer-provided health insurance for workers (currently a form of tax-free income).

So that leaves lot in the category of what former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld would call “the known unknowns.”

In the short term, the detail work would be left to the Finance Committee, headed by a senator who is not part of the “Gang of Six,” Montana Democrat Max Baucus.

James Capretta, a former Bush administration budget official, warned Republicans in a post on the National Review web site Wednesday that Baucus “is an architect of Obamacare. If his committee were to produce any real health-care savings at all, it would be with the same kind of price-setting and central planning that was written into Obamacare.”

Damning words also came from the opposite side of the spectrum on Wednesday, from Gerald McEntee, head of a union that is one of the Democrats’ biggest donors, the American Federation of State, County, and Municipal Employees: “The plan makes enormous cuts in health care programs. And the plan would destabilize employer-sponsored health care coverage for 160 million Americans.”

So even without the details, some critics are savaging the plan. Will more details help, or hurt, the “Gang of Six” cause?

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi today met with Elizabeth Warren to discuss the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau that Warren helped build. 

Tomorrow, July 21, marks the one-year anniversary of the enactment of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act.

And while they went around and congratulated each other about achieving the milestone, they were also cautious of legislation that will be brought to the House floor tomorrow that will significantly reduce the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's powers. 

Tomorrow's legislation, H.R. 1315, would decrease the threshold needed for the Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) to override regulations issued by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) from a 2/3 super-majority, to a simple majority.

Said Warren:

I'm grateful to you for getting us here, but it is ironic that tomorrow there is another fight to try and kill this agency -- another fight to try to cut the legs out from underneath it before it's able to help American families, before it's able to make those credit markets to work not just for the largest financial institutions, not just for those who can hire an army of lawyers, but for families.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said on the floor this morning that he had a "terrific" conversation with President Obama last night regarding the debt debate, and both await word from Speaker John Boehner on how the House plans to proceed.

Reid warned that there only 12 days until the Aug. 2 deadline to pass legislation.

"We cannot default on our debt. We in the Senate can have the greatest ideas in the world, but if they're not accepted in the House we can't extend the debt ceiling... So now we await the House of Representatives"

Reid mentioned three plans that are in play: the Reid-McConnell plan, the Gang of Six propsal, and President Obama's "grand plan."

On the Obama conversation, Reid said, "He understands the issue as well as anyone in the country, if not more so because the buck really does stop at his desk. So I tell all senators to look calm and deliberate, and I'm confident we'll be able to work through this very difficult time."

Boehner spokesman Michael Steel responded to Reid's speech: "We are well aware of the deadline, which is why we hope Sen. Reid will move quickly to schedule a Senate vote on the 'Cut, Cap, and Balance' plan that passed the House with bipartisan support last night." (But only five House Democrats voted for the measure, while nine Republicans voted against it.)

Disconnect between Obama and the Senate vs. House Republicans and the Tea Party… In 2010, the Tea Party and independents were largely on the same page, but that’s not the case anymore… White House is winning the PR battle in the debt fight, per new NBC/WSJ poll… The poll on the economy, Obama, and 2012… And Romney leads the GOP horserace, but Bachmann surges into 2^nd place… Bachmann and son respond to the migraine story… Six GOP presidential candidates participate in Twitter debate… Hoekstra and Dewhurst are running for the Senate… And Dems win first Wisconsin recall race.

*** Disconnect: Yesterday provided us with a clear example of the current disconnect between President Obama and the Senate vs. House Republicans and the Tea Party. In the Senate, we saw dozens of Democratic and Republican senators tripping over themselves to embrace the bipartisan Gang of Six deficit-reduction proposal, which Obama also praised. But in the House, Republicans passed their symbolic "Cut, Cap, and Balance" measure through a mostly party-line vote. And to top it off, freshman Tea Party Rep. Allen West (R-FL) fired off a mean-spirited email to DNC Chair and Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-FL), after she suggested that West’s support for “Cut, Cap, and Balance” would increase costs for Medicare recipients. “You are the most vile, unprofessional ,and despicable member of the US House of Representatives,” West wrote. “You have proven repeatedly that you are not a Lady.” 

*** The Tea Party vs. everyone else: This disconnect is also evident in our brand-new NBC/WSJ poll. When provided arguments from both sides on whether or not to raise the debt ceiling, 49% support increasing it -- including 66% of Democrats, 50% of independents, and even 50% of non-Tea Party Republicans. Meanwhile, 43% oppose raising the debt ceiling -- including 62% of Tea Party supporters. Moreover, 58% say they favor Obama’s mixed approach to reduce the deficit (through spending cuts, tax increases, and changes to entitlements), including 88% of Democrats and 54% of indies. On the other hand, 36% back the House Republican plan (spending cuts only), including 70% of Tea Party supporters (!!!). House Republican leaders now find themselves caught between their Tea Party base and independents. In 2010, these groups were largely on the same page. That’s not true anymore.

*** The White House is winning the PR battle: The poll also shows that Obama is clearly winning a legislative argument -- in terms of public opinion -- for the first time in his presidency. In addition to having a 22-point lead on his deficit proposal vs. the House GOP’s, a plurality in the poll (by a 38%-31% margin) says the debt ceiling should be raised, which is a sharp reversal from June when a plurality (39%-28%) opposed the move. When told that failing to raise the debt ceiling could jeopardize payments to Social Security recipient and military personnel, 49% support increasing it. And 43% oppose it when told that an increase would make it harder to reduce the deficit. “You are watching opinion shift as people are learning more about the debate,” says NBC/WSJ co-pollster Bill McInturff (R). By the way, one smart Republican said to one of us yesterday: If only his party hadn't gotten themselves trapped by the debt ceiling, they MIGHT have a better shot at winning the LARGER argument.

*** The economy, Obama, and 2012: The other big story in the NBC/WSJ poll remains the public’s pessimism on the economy. Only 26% believe the economy will improve in the next 12 months (down three points from June), while 45% think the worst is still ahead (up four from last month). Perhaps most significantly, 67% say the nation is head in the wrong direction -- the highest mark in Obama’s presidency. But so far, Obama’s overall numbers have held up despite that pessimism. His approval rating stands at 47%, which is down two points from last month. (The growth of the "wrong" track number is among African-Americans and Hispanics, two groups that have NOT largely shifted in their opinion of the president. It explains why the president's number did NOT move much even as WRONG track did.) And in hypothetical 2012 match-ups, he leads Romney by seven points (48%-41%) and Bachmann by 15 (50%-35%). Yet the margin is closer when the president is paired with a generic Republican: 42% say they’d probably vote for Obama, while 39% pick the Republican candidate.

*** Romney’s still ahead, but Bachmann surges into 2^nd: In the race for the GOP presidential nomination, Romney’s still the national leader, getting support from 30% of Republican primary voters. But Bachmann has surged into second place with 16% (she was at 3% last month before announcing her presidential bid). The two are followed by Perry at 11%, Paul at 9%, Gingrich at 8%, Cain at 5%, Santorum at 3%, and Pawlenty and Huntsman at 2%. In the crosstabs, Romney narrowly leads Bachmann among Tea Party supporters, 24%-20%, while Bachmann is ahead among GOP primary voters who identify themselves as very conservative, 24%-22%. This is the third poll in a row where we've had a different Republican surging into double digits out of nowhere. In April, it was Trump; in June, it was Herman Cain; and now it's Bachmann. Of course, don't overlook the fact that Rick Perry is ALREADY sitting in double digits and he hasn't announced. Combine Perry and Bachmann (27%), and there's clearly an opportunity for a coalescing around a Romney alternative.

*** Bachmann and her son respond to the migraine story: Yesterday, Bachmann responded to the Daily Caller report about her migraine headaches, saying: “Like nearly 30 million other Americans, I experience migraines that are easily controllable with medication." And it appears her campaign made her son, a doctor, available for comment to the New York Times. “She would not in any respect meet the definition for not having capacity in one of these episodes,” Dr. Lucas Bachmann told the newspaper. “She is probably not going to run a mile, but in terms of being able to engage, she can comprehend and assess information — without a doubt.” Our take on this whole issue: Rivals can make many arguments about her qualifications to be president, but a lack of energy and inactivity don’t seem to be among them.

*** Bachmann and Paul vote against Cut, Cap, and Balance: By the way, the two GOP presidential candidates -- Bachmann and Paul -- who were able to vote on yesterday’s “Cut, Cap, and Balance” measure voted AGAINST it. Bachmann said in a statement that it didn't go far enough. "While I embrace the principles of Cut, Cap and Balance, the motion does not go far enough in fundamentally restructuring the way Washington spends taxpayer dollars. The principles found in this bill are a step in the right direction toward the fundamental restructuring we need in the way Washington spends taxpayer dollars. Along with cutting spending, putting in place enforceable spending caps that put us on a path to balance and passing a balanced budget amendment, we must also repeal and defund ObamaCare."

*** The Twitter debate: Today, some of the Republican presidential candidates will participate in a debate via Twitter. Politico: “The debate, sponsored by TheTeaParty.net, will feature Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Gary Johnson, Michele Bachmann, Thad McCotter and Herman Cain. Conservative commentator S.E. Cupp and conservative radio host Rusty Humphries will pose the questions, which the candidates will then be encouraged to answer in at most two or three tweets. Others can submit questions to the moderators and candidates by mentioning @140townhall in a tweet.”

*** On the 2012 trail: Cain is in New Hampshire… Pawlenty remains on his RV tour through Iowa… Mitt Romney holds a medial avail in Los Angeles, CA at 5:15 pm ET… Ann Romney campaigns in South Carolina.

*** Hoekstra, Dewhurst running for the Senate: Senate Republicans picked up two significant recruits. Ex-Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R) now says he’s running to challenge incumbent Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) in Michigan. And in Texas, Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst (R) is going to run in the crowded GOP field to fill Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R)’s seat. Hoekstra lost last year’s GOP gubernatorial primary in Michigan to Rick Snyder.

*** Dems win first Wisconsin recall race: “Democratic state Sen. Dave Hansen of Green Bay was the first of nine state senators to face a final recall election, and he easily survived Tuesday,” the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel writes. “Hansen won a lopsided victory over his Republican challenger, wind farm developer David VanderLeest of Green Bay, against whom Democrats and their allies have been hammering away on his personal and legal problems. The victory keeps Democrats in control of a seat that Hansen, 63, has held since 2000.”

*** Wednesday’s “Daily Rundown” lineup: Sens. Michael Bennet (D-CO) and Mark Kirk (R-IL) on the Gang of Six debt plan… NBC/WSJ pollsters Bill McInturff and Peter Hart with more details from our new poll… 2012 news with Roll Call’s Christina Bellantoni, PBS NewsHour’s David Chalian, and Cynthia Tucker of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution…

*** “Wednesday’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports” lineup: NBC’s Andrea Mitchell reports from Capitol Hill, and she will interview Dem Sen. Chuck Schumer and Wasserman Schultz.

Countdown to Wisconsin recall general for GOP senators: 20 days
Countdown to Iowa GOP straw poll: 24 days
Countdown to Wisconsin recall general for Dem senators: 27 days
Countdown to NV-2 and NY-9 special elections: 55 days
Countdown to Election Day 2011: 111 days
Countdown to the Iowa caucuses: 20` days
* Note: When the IA caucuses take place depends on whether other states move up

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Our take on the new NBC/WSJ poll: “As Democrats and Republicans wrestle over spending and deficits in advance of an Aug. 2 deadline to raise the debt ceiling, most Americans want their political leaders to compromise rather stand their ground, according to a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. “Strong majorities of Democrats and independents prefer that Democratic congressional leaders make compromises in this budget debate, while almost 70 percent of independents want Republican leaders to do the same. And nearly six in 10 favor President Barack Obama’s proposal to lower the federal deficit by $4 trillion over 10 years by cutting federal spending, raising tax revenue from the wealthy and reducing some Medicare spending.

More: “But there’s one hurdle to this compromise: A majority of Republicans – and nearly two-thirds of Tea Party supporters – want GOP leaders to hold their ground.”

The Wall Street Journal’s take: “The poll … found a dramatic shift in attitudes toward the debt-ceiling debate as the public tunes in to the issue that is consuming Washington. A plurality of Americans—38%—said the debt ceiling should be raised, against 31% who said it shouldn't.”

And here’s a the new Washington Post/ABC poll: “Majorities of Americans see both President Obama and congressional Republicans as not willing enough to compromise in their budget negotiations, but the public views the GOP leaders as particularly intransigent.”

“The bipartisan proposal from the so-called Gang of Six senators to reduce deficits by nearly $4 trillion over the coming decade — and its warm reception from 43 other senators of both parties — renewed hopes for a deal days after talks between Mr. Obama and Congressional leaders had reached an impasse,” the New York Times says.

“But while its sponsorship by staunch conservatives as well as liberals suggested enough flexibility within both parties to get a deal eventually, it would be all but impossible to turn it into detailed legislation — at the moment it is a four-page outline — and pass it in less than two weeks. Both parties were considering ways to use the proposal as the basis for a broader budget agreement if they can find a way to get past the immediate pressure to increase the debt limit.”

The Washington Post adds, “As many policymakers were turning their attention to the new [Gang of Six] strategy, the Republican-controlled House forged ahead Tuesday with another approach to the debt crisis, voting to sharply cut spending and tie an increase in the debt limit to the eventual adoption of a balanced-budget amendment. The measure is unlikely to pass the Senate, and Obama has promised to veto the bill if it does.”

Politico tees up today’s GOP Twitter debate. “The debate, sponsored by TheTeaParty.net, will feature Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Gary Johnson, Michele Bachmann, Thad McCotter and Herman Cain. Conservative commentator S.E. Cupp and conservative radio host Rusty Humphries will pose the questions, which the candidates will then be encouraged to answer in at most two or three tweets. Others can submit questions to the moderators and candidates by mentioning @140townhall in a tweet.”

Also: "Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, Ron Paul and Jon Huntsman will be skipping the event... Starting at 3 p.m. Wednesday, the debate can be seen at 140TownHall.com or by following the hashtag #140townhall."

Here's the story on the full NBC/WSJ poll:

As Democrats and Republicans wrestle over spending and deficits in advance of an Aug. 2 deadline to raise the debt ceiling, most Americans want their political leaders to compromise rather stand their ground, according to a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.  

Strong majorities of Democrats and independents prefer that Democratic congressional leaders make compromises in this budget debate, while almost 70 percent of independents want Republican leaders to do the same. And nearly six in 10 favor President Barack Obama’s proposal to lower the federal deficit by $4 trillion over 10 years by cutting federal spending, raising tax revenue from the wealthy and reducing some Medicare spending.

By comparison, only about a third of respondents prefer the House Republican proposal to reduce the deficit by $2.5 trillion over 10 years through cutting spending alone and not raising additional revenues.

Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart, who conducted the survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff, says the public’s message can be summed up in one phrase: “Compromise and get it done.”

“The public feels like this is a real problem that needs a real solution,” Hart explains. “And they want compromise by both parties.”

But there’s one hurdle to this compromise: A majority of Republicans – and nearly 70 percent of Tea Party supporters – want GOP leaders to hold their ground.

In the race for the Republican presidential nomination, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney remains the national leader with 30 percent of GOP primary voters saying he’s their first choice, according to a new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll.

But Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann has surged into second place with support from 16 percent of GOP primary voters. A month ago -- before she announced her presidential bid -- Bachmann was just at 3 percent in the survey.

(In the current poll's crosstabs, Romney narrowly leads Bachmann among Tea Party supporters, 24 to 20 percent, while Bachmann is ahead among Republican primary voters who identify themselves as very conservative, 24 to 22 percent.)

In the GOP trial heat, Romney and Bachmann are followed by Texas Gov. Rick Perry (who hasn’t yet decided on a presidential run) at 11 percent, Texas Congressman Ron Paul at 9 percent and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 8 percent.

Behind them are ex-Godfather’s Pizza CEO Herman Cain at 5 percent, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum at 3 percent and former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman tied at 2 percent.

The full NBC/Wall Street Journal poll -- which was conducted of 1,000 adults (200 reached by cell phone) from July 14-17, and it has an overall margin of error of plus-minus 3.1 percentage points -- is released at 6:30 pm ET. 

After a campaign rally in South Carolina today, Michele Bachmann responded to a Daily Caller report alleging the congresswoman has migraines that leave her "incapacitated."

"Like nearly 30 million other Americans, I experience migraines that are easily controllable with medication," Bachmann said.

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

The article quoted a former aide of Bachmann questioning her ability to "withstand the most difficult challenges facing America" during "crisis management mode." But Bachmann said that the migraines will not affect her campaign for the White House or her job performance if she is elected.

"I'd like to be abundantly clear: My ability to function effectively will not affect my ability to serve as commander-in-chief," Bachmann said. "Since entering this campaign for the presidency, I have maintained a full schedule between my duties as a congresswoman and as a presidential candidate traveling across the nation to meet with voters."

Bachmann turned the attention from the condition that affects "individuals in nearly one in four American households" to the economic challenges facing the country.

"While I appreciate the concern for myself and for my health, the greater concern should be the debate that is occurring today in Washington, D.C. over whether or not we will increase our debt, spending, and taxes," Bachmann said.

A group of freshman House Republicans descended on the White House this morning to demand that President Obama present in writing his own debt-ceiling proposal that reduces the deficit by cutting government spending.

Alongside curious tourists on Pennsylvania Ave, the 21 Republicans held a press conference outside the White House gates to blast the president for what they described as a failure of leadership on the showdown over raising the nation's debt limit.

The group said they came to the White House to get a response to their June letter signed by over 70 House Republicans calling on Obama to "come forward with a detailed plan that reduces the national debt and addresses entitlement reform."

Rep. Mike Kelly (R-PA) declared, "We have asked him [Obama] for a plan... It's time for you to be president and quit being a candidate."

And Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-MI) said, "We have to deal with our spending decisions... I'm here for a solution."

Under sweltering temperatures, the rhetoric during the photo op also became heated with Rep. Jeff Duncan (R-SC) telling Obama: "Get off the golf course" and put his debt ceiling proposal in writing.

Addressing reporters in the White House's briefing room, President Obama today embraced a proposal by a bipartisan group of U.S. senators to reduce the nation's deficit by some $4 trillion over the next 10 years.

Obama called the proposal "a very significant step," and said it was consistent with the "balanced" deficit-reduction roadmap he's been pushing for. "We now have a bipartisan group of senators who agree with that approach," the president said. "The hope is that everyone seizes this opportunity."

Obama's comments came after Oklahoma GOP Sen. Tom Coburn rejoined the bipartisan "Gang of Six" senators working on a deficit-reduction proposal. Politico reported that Republican Sen. Lamar Alexander said he would back the plan as well.

According to a summary obtained by NBC News, the Gang of Six proposal would:
-- immediately cut the deficit by $500 billion
-- cut discretionary spending
-- "strengthen" entitlement programs like Medicare and Medicaid
-- reform the tax code
-- and reform Social Security on a track isolated from deficit reduction.

In his statement to reporters, Obama said that the ongoing negotiations between Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell continues. But he called that effort -- which would raise the debt ceiling -- "the bare minimum that has to be achieved."

A majority of Americans say that Congress failing to raise the debt ceiling would be a real and serious problem, according to a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

Fifty-five percent of all respondents -- including 63 percent of Democrats, 59 percent of independents and 47 percent of Republicans -- believe that not raising the ceiling would be problematic.

That's compared with just 18 percent who say it wouldn't be a real and serious problem. But that number jumps up to 33 percent among self-identified Tea Party supporters.

The Obama administration has said that Aug. 2 -- exactly two weeks from now -- is the date when the U.S. Treasury Department exhausts its borrowing authority, unless the debt ceiling is increased.

The full NBC/WSJ poll, which will be released at 6:30 pm ET, was taken of 1,000 adults (including 200 by cell phone) from July 14-17. It has an overall margin of error of plus-minus 3.1 percentage points.

Law enforcement sources say the FBI has arrested an agent of Pakistan's official state intelligence service, accusing him of making thousands of dollars in political contributions in the United States without disclosing his connections to the Pakistani government.

Syed Ghulam Fai will appear in federal court this afternoon in Alexandria, Virginia.  He's not charged with being a spy. But he is charged with being an unregistered agent or lobbyist of the Pakistani government.

He's the exective director of a group called the Kashmiri American Council, the sources say, and he has given tens of thousands of dollars to congressional candidates and party organizations. U.S. officials say there's no reason to believe that members of Congress or other organizations that received his contributions were aware of his government connections.

A call to the Kashmiri American Council's office in Washington went unanswered this morning. 

The blame game: Who killed the grand bargain?... David Brooks points the finger at Republicans and conservatives… Today’s symbolic “Cut, Cap, and Balance” vote in the House… White House steps up its PR effort… NBC/WSJ poll day!... Coburn releases his own deficit-reduction plan… Perry walks back his “called” comment… Bachmann’s in South Carolina, while Pawlenty continues his RV tour through Iowa… And today’s first recall race in Wisconsin.

*** The blame game: With Congress now on a course to raise the debt ceiling via an enlarged version of Mitch McConnell’s “disapproval” maneuver (the Biden group spending cuts + Reid's commissions), the question turns to: How did Washington pass up the grand bargain to deal with deficit reduction, entitlement reform, and tax reform? There’s plenty of blame to go around depending on your point of view or seat in the peanut gallery -- and we’ll be examining the culprits here over the next few days -- but the New York Times’ David Brooks today singles out the Republicans and conservatives who gutted any chance of the grand bargain passing Congress. His targets: the Beltway Bandits (including anti-tax activist Grover Norquist, whom Brooks calls the “Zelig of Republican catastrophe”), the Big Government Blowhards (i.e., the talk-radio jocks), the Show Horses (Palin and Bachmann), and the Permanent Campaigners (Brooks doesn’t name Eric Cantor here, but it’s pretty clear to whom he’s referring).

*** “Gods of the New Dawn?” Brooks concludes his column this way, “All of these groups share the same mentality. They do not see politics as the art of the possible. They do not believe in seizing opportunities to make steady, messy progress toward conservative goals. They believe that politics is a cataclysmic struggle. They believe that if they can remain pure in their faith then someday their party will win a total and permanent victory over its foes. They believe they are Gods of the New Dawn.” Case in point: GOP Sen. Tom Coburn, who released his own plan yesterday (see below), was hit hard for his budget plan by … Grover Norquist. Clearly, that's a feud that's gotten personal.

*** Today’s symbolic House vote: Speaking of purity and zero-sum politics, the House today votes on the so-called “Cut, Cap, and Balance” legislation that has almost no chance of becoming law. The measure combines a debt-ceiling increase with immediate spending cuts, spending caps, and a balanced budget constitutional amendment that includes a two-thirds majority provision on taxes. It’s expected to pass the House, but it has little chance of clearing the Democratic-controlled Senate (or even getting many Senate Dem votes because of the tax hike provision). And yesterday, the Obama White House issued a veto threat against the House legislation, saying it “would set unrealistic spending caps that could result in significant cuts to education, research and development, and other programs critical to growing our economy and winning the future. It could also lead to severe cuts in Medicare and Social Security.” House Speaker Boehner responded to the veto threat with a video, NBC’s Luke Russert reports. “The issue is not congressional inaction, but rather the president's unwillingness to cut spending and restrain the future growth of our government," Boehner says in it. The Senate will vote on “Cut, Cap, and Balance” later this week.  

*** White House steps up its PR effort: In addition to yesterday’s veto threat, White House economic adviser Jason Furman further criticizes the “Cut, Cap, and Balance” measure on the White House’s blog. “The bill would abruptly cut more than $100 billion in spending in the first year alone, a step that Congressional Budget Office Director Doug Elmendorf stated would ‘affect our projections for GDP growth over the next two years,’” Furman writes. “It would cut Medicaid by one-third over the decade, and by nearly 50% by 2030… And it would cut programs for the most vulnerable – for example, by food stamp benefits for a family of four by $1,760 per year or cut 8 million households from the program.” This is just the latest example of the Obama White House stepping up its PR effort in the debt-ceiling fight that they believe they are winning right now.

*** NBC/WSJ poll day! So who is winning (or at least isn’t losing) the current political fight over debt limit? What is the American public more concerned about -- cuts to entitlements or tax increases? And what is President Obama’s standing heading into 2012? Tune into NBC “Nightly News,” or click on to MSNBC.com, for the answers from our new NBC/WSJ poll, which is released in full beginning at 6:30 pm ET.

*** Coburn releases his own plan: Meanwhile, NBC’s Libby Leist notes that GOP Sen. Tom Coburn yesterday released his massive $9 trillion deficit-reduction plan. It contains sweeping cuts across the federal government that would reduce the size of government by 20%. In an afternoon press conference, Coburn told reporters, "It’s rough, but it’s necessary... Nine trillion dollars is very reasonable. That sounds idiotic to Washington."Aides to Coburn said he released this plan to call attention to the fact that the $1 to $2 trillion in cuts that the White House and GOP leaders are discussing is just a drop in the bucket compared with what’s needed to solve the national crisis. Coburn told reporters in a later pen and pad session, "Two trillion dollars? That doesn't even cover interest on debt we have right now. If interest rates go up two points you've just doubled it."

*** Rick Perry watch: As we mentioned yesterday, Texas Gov. Rick Perry seemed VERY open to a presidential run over the weekend, telling the Des Moines Register: “I’m getting more and more comfortable every day that this is what I’ve been called to do. This is what America needs.” But he walked back those comments yesterday, especially regarding the “calling” part. "There's a lot of different ways to be called. My mother may call me for dinner. My friends may call me for something. There are people calling from all across this country ... and saying, 'Man, we wish you would consider doing this,'" Perry said, according to the Houston Chronicle.

*** On the 2012 trail: Bachmann is in South Carolina, making stops in Columbia and Aiken… And Pawlenty continues his RV tour through Iowa, hitting Boone, Marshalltow, and Pella.

*** Today’s first Wisconsin recall race: The first round of Wisconsin recall primaries took place last week. And today comes the first recall general election -- with incumbent state Sen. Dave Hansen (D) facing off against Republican David Vanderleest. The race is seen as a barometer for the future recall general elections (on Aug. 9) against the six GOP state senators who voted for Gov. Scott Walker's collective-bargaining legislation, and (on Aug. 16) against two other Democrats who fled the state to stop that vote. Democrats need to net a gain of three state Senate seats during these contests to regain control of the chamber. Hansen is expected to win, in part because the GOP’s preferred candidate was unable to get on the ballot. Polls in Wisconsin close at 9:00 pm ET.

*** Tuesday’s “Daily Rundown” lineup: DNC Chair/Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-FL) and Club for Growth President Chris Chocola on the latest developments in the debt ceiling discussions… NBC’s Mike Isikoff and MSNBC.com’s Richard Wolffe on Rupert Murdoch’s testimony to Parliament and what the U.K. hacking scandal could mean for media and politics here in the U.S.

*** Tuesday’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports”: And with the one-year anniversary of the financial-reform legislation being signed into law, NBC’s Andrea Mitchell interviews Democratic Congressman Barney Frank.

Countdown to Wisconsin recall general for GOP senators: 21 days
Countdown to Iowa GOP straw poll: 25 days
Countdown to Wisconsin recall general for Dem senators: 28 days
Countdown to NV-2 and NY-9 special elections: 56 days
Countdown to Election Day 2011: 112 days
Countdown to the Iowa caucuses: 202 days
* Note: When the IA caucuses take place depends on whether other states move up

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The New York Times: “With Republicans and Democrats still deeply divided over how to shrink the budget deficit and the national debt, the only way for them to avoid a financial crisis at this late date may be to perform a legislative magic trick.  The idea, conjured by Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the Republican leader, would allow Republicans to accede to an increase in the government’s debt limit without actually voting for it or giving in to President Obama’s demand for tax increases as part of any deal.”

But before turning to McConnell’s maneuver… “The House will vote on a ‘cut, cap and balance’ plan to let the government borrow another $2.4 trillion - but only after big and immediate spending cuts and adoption by Congress of a constitutional amendment requiring a balanced budget,” the AP says. “The plan is doomed in the Democratic-controlled Senate, and the White House has promised a veto.” 

The Washington Post adds that Democrats "hope that the cut, cap and balance measure will convince House Republicans that they need to sign on to the Senate compromise.”

In a blog post on the White House’s Web site, economic adviser Jason Furman responded to the “Cut, Cap, and Balance” measure this way: “[I]t is critical that we not bring down our deficits and debt at the expense of economic growth, innovation and job creation, or place the greatest burden on older Americans and the most vulnerable. That is precisely what the House’s Cut, Cap and Balance plan would do – a proposal that White House Press Secretary Jay Carney described as ‘duck, dodge and dismantle.’”

The Energy Department emails First Read, “Secretary Chu is launching a new DOE-Ad Council [Public Service Announcement] campaign built around the slogan ‘Saving Energy Saves You Money.’ It highlights the little things people can do to make their homes more comfortable and save money in the process.  It’ll feature two TV spots, a radio spot, billboards, and internet ads that direct people to www.EnergySavers.gov for helpful tips on how to save money by saving energy.”   

The Washington Post: “A report offering new details regarding the House ethics committee’s handling of the investigation of Rep. Maxine Waters (D-Calif.) has led to calls for a new probe — this time, of the panel itself. Politico reported Monday that two of the committee’s former attorneys may have compromised the Waters investigation by improperly communicating with Republican committee members.”

Politico adds, “Rep. Maxine Waters is calling for the House Ethics Committee to dismiss the long-running case against her, claiming she can’t get fair treatment from the secretive panel in the wake of allegations that staffers improperly shared information in an investigation into her finances.”

More: “Waters … was reacting to a POLITICO story Monday that included internal emails, memos and documents from inside the Ethics Committee that revealed bitter internal disputes on the panel over the allegations against Waters. Blake Chisam, the former staff director and chief counsel for the Ethics Committee, accused the two lead investigators on the Waters case of secretly feeding information to Republicans on the Ethics Committee, including Alabama Rep. Jo Bonner. Chisam also accused the staffers of misleading lawmakers and other staff on the status of the Waters investigation. Bonner is now chairman of the Ethics Committee.”

Politico says that there are clear GOP favorites in Iowa and New Hampshire. But in South Carolina, it’s wide open. “The first-in-the-South primary couldn’t be any more unsettled. By this point in the 2008 campaign, the Republican contenders had the state’s top consultants locked up, expansive staffs on the ground, and extensive rosters of endorsements. Voters had already been inundated with TV ads. A variety of pollsters had been in the field for months. This time around? Crickets.”

“There’s been very little polling, no ads have been aired, and the campaigns are barely staffed up. Just one of the state’s top consultants — who play a unique and exaggerated role in Columbia’s political culture — has signed up with a major candidate. A Fox News debate in May turned out to be a dud, since most of the best-known presidential prospects skipped it.”

BACHMANN: On the campaign trail yesterday in South Carolina, Bachmann endorsed the “Cut, Cap, and Balance” measure the House will vote on today, NBC’s Morgan Parmet notes. "The principles that are found in the ‘Cut, Cap and Balance’ pledge will put us in the right direction for fundamentally restructuring the way that Washington, DC is currently spending our tax dollars,” Bachmann said. “However, in signing this pledge, I'm also adding an additional line… We must also add this line and that's to repeal and defund Obamacare."

The Daily Caller -- using only a handful of anonymous former aides and advisers as sources -- alleges that Bachmann “suffers from stress-induced medical episodes that she has characterized as severe headaches. These episodes, say witnesses, occur once a week on average and can “incapacitate” her for days at time. On at least three occasions, Bachmann has landed in the hospital as a result.”

PAWLENTY: Campaigning in Iowa yesterday, “Pawlenty, a former governor of Minnesota, said Republicans in Congress ‘better get something good’ in return for agreeing to raise the $14.3 trillion debt ceiling,” the Des Moines Register reports.

ROMNEY: The Des Moines Register also writes, “Presumptive national front-runner Mitt Romney has visited Iowa just once this year to meet personally with Iowa Republicans, but he talked with nearly 10,000 of them last night by telephone. Romney promised to come for the Iowa State Fair in August, and added, ‘you won’t be seeing too little of us.’”

“The tele-town hall meeting, the first in Iowa this election cycle, and his comments to listeners indicate he’s not writing off the state, just not running at full sprint here yet.”

SANTORUM: On FOX last night, Santorum criticized Mitch McConnell’s “disapproval” gambit as a way to increase the debt ceiling, per NBC’s Parmet. “You don’t give someone who’s fumbling the ball in leadership, you don't give him the ball to run with it,” Santorum said. “The bottom line is the president [abdicated] his responsibility in leading this country through this very difficult debt crisis that he has in a large part created.”

Even though the White House didn't appoint Elizabeth Warren to the position, Senate Republicans stand ready to filibuster President Obama's nominee to head the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, Richard Cordray.

And it's not because of Cordray's qualifications or ideology. Rather, it's because Republicans want to reform a law they didn't support in the first place.

"I would remind [Obama] that Senate Republicans still aren't interested in approving anyone to the position until the president agrees to make this massive new government bureaucracy more accountable and transparent to the American people," Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said on the Senate floor today.

McConnell added, "On May 5 of this year, 44 Republican senators signed a letter to the president stating that `we will not support the consideration of any nominee, regardless of party affiliation, to be the CFPB director until the structure of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is reformed.'"

But if Senate Republicans simply want to reform to the bureau, why didn't they try to work with the Obama White House -- by being willing to vote for the legislation that was going to pass -- on changing the law? Instead, every Republican (save for Scott Brown, Susan Collins, and Olympia Snowe) voted against the financial-reform legislation that created the bureau. It's a question that conservative commentator David Frum raised after passage of last year's health-care law.

At the beginning of this process we made a strategic decision: unlike, say, Democrats in 2001 when President Bush proposed his first tax cut, we would make no deal with the administration. No negotiations, no compromise, nothing. We were going for all the marbles. This would be Obama’s Waterloo.

[snip]

Barack Obama badly wanted Republican votes for his plan. Could we have leveraged his desire to align the plan more closely with conservative views? To finance it without redistributive taxes on productive enterprise – without weighing so heavily on small business – without expanding Medicaid? Too late now. They are all the law.

Yet Senate Republicans argue that Democrats would have never made a deal to tinker with the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

"Democrats had 59 votes in the Senate and didn’t have to or want to work with us on this," McConnell spokesman Don Stewart tells First Read. "And the two things we’ve asked for (a board like the other bureaus/agencies have; accountability to Congress like others have) are non-starters -- even today."

During the health-care debate, Stewart adds, Democrats "didn’t need or want us, and any changes we got would have been minor. Same with [the financial-reform legislation]. They voted down all of our proposals that could have drawn Republican votes because they didn’t ... need us."

So what's next for Elizabeth Warren? Many say it's a run for Senate. But for now it seems it's vacation -- and heading back to Boston.

Warren -- appearing on MSNBC's "Andrea Mitchell Reports" moments after President Obama announced Richard Cordray would lead the Consumer Protection Agency that she helped create -- didn't telegraph her pitch about whether she'd challenge incumbent Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown (R) next year.

"Massachusetts does beckon, in sense that it is my home and I need to go home." She added, "I will do more thinking then, but I need to do that thinking not from Washington. I need to go home."

But first, Warren told Mitchell that it's time for a little vacation. "I am going to take my little grandchildren and my great nieces and nephews, and we are all headed to Legoland."

If she does run, can Red Sox Nation be sure she won't make the same misstep as previous Democratic nominee Martha Coakley -- who incorrectly stated that ex-Red Sox pitcher Curt Schilling was a Yankees fan?

"My husband makes sure, he is the one that is 13th generation Massachusetts, and believe me he keeps up with the Red Sox and every other team in Boston."

In an interview with NBC this afternoon in the White house briefing room, famed investor Warren Buffett said he believes a debt-ceiling deal will be passed by the Aug. 2 deadline. He said Congress needs to work past partisan boundaries, and that a failure to pass the deal would mean a global perception of America as a nation that can't think ahead.

Said Buffett:

We cannot go to Aug. 2 and tell the rest of the world, "Look because we're having this little fight in our sandbox back here, that we're going to essentially default on obligations of the United States for the first time in our history."

That's a level of immaturity that I don't believe even this Congress is up to. So it'll happen, we'll get something, and in the end we have to get something. But why not aim high rather than aim low?

Buffett also compared the gamesmanship of pushing the deal to the brink to Russian roulette.   

But you're running a risk that's abolsutely silly to run. I mean, why stick a gun to your head and say well there's only a bullet in one of the six chambers. So I'll spin it and pull it and it probably won't happen -- you're running a totally unnecessary risk and you're sending a signal to the rest of the world that we really can't think ahead in this country.

Although the debate over the debt ceiling is far from over, a new CBS News poll shows that no one is winning -- but one side is certainly losing: congressional Republicans.

According to the survey, a whopping 71% disapprove of their handling of the debt-ceiling negotiations, versus 58% who say that about congressional Democrats and 48% who say that about President Obama.

From the network's write up of their poll:

Americans are unimpressed with their political leaders' handling of the debt ceiling crisis, with a new CBS News poll showing a majority disapprove of all the involved parties' conduct, but Republicans in Congress fare the worst, with just 21 percent backing their resistance to raising taxes.

President Obama earned the most generous approval ratings for his handling of the weeks-old negotiations, but still more people said they disapproved (48 percent) than approved (43 percent) of what he has done and said... Approval drops to 31 percent for the Democrats in Congress, and only 21 percent of the people surveyed said they approved of Republicans' handling of the negotiations, while 71 percent disapprove.

In the third installment of its $20 million advertising campaign, the Karl Rove-founded Crossroads GPS is airing TV ads aimed at 10 Democratic House members. "No more reckless spending, no new taxes, and no more blank checks," the ad goes.

Here's the one targeting Kentucky Democratic Congressman Ben Chandler, who narrowly won re-election last year.

Crossroads GPS -- which can spend and raise unlimited sums and which doesn't have to disclose its donors -- earlier aired TV ads hitting President Obama first and then Democratic senators up for re-election in 2012.

Holding pattern in debt-limit debate… Obama to officially tap Richard Cordray at 1:05 pm ET to head Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, bypassing Elizabeth Warren -- who is now free to possibly pursue a Senate bid… NBC and Facebook team up to host NH “Meet the Press” presidential debate… Rick Perry to decide within next two to three weeks?... Breaking down the 2^nd quarter fundraising numbers… RNC getting out of the Steele trap… Pawlenty begins RV tour through Iowa… And Congressman Leonard Boswell scuffles with armed intruder (and is fine).

*** Holding pattern: In the contentious and still unresolved debt-limit debate, much of the public activity this week will be meaningless. For instance, House and Senate Republicans will be voting on a Balanced Budget Amendment, which isn’t expected to garner the two-thirds vote needed to pass the Senate. (The GOP leadership idea might be to convince its rank-and-file that such an amendment can’t pass, setting the stage for Mitch McConnell’s Plan B.) So all the real action will be behind the scenes, and the story remains in a holding pattern until we have a deal, which won’t be until after the Balanced Budget Amendment votes. Perhaps the eventual deal gets reached as early as Friday. But come on: This is Washington, and it'll probably take the weekend, and then some.

*** Two-track process: As noted above, the House GOP leadership needs to show -- and not just say -- to some of its new rank-and-file members that a Balanced Budget Amendment cannot pass. So once that's out of the way (after a necessary amount of messaging to go with it), the real convincing takes place. Right now, Senate leaders Harry Reid and Mitch McConnell (along with White House staffers) are busy crafting a deal that will include, apparently, MORE THAN $1 trillion in spending cuts to go along with McConnell’s “disapproval” idea, in addition to the "don't call them commissions" commissions on tax reform and entitlements. Already, word is leaking out that Senate Democrats are more open to cuts than what House Democrats, as a whole, are open to (remember, quite a few Senate Democrats are up for re-election in swing or red states).

*** Obama taps Cordray to head Consumer protection bureau; Warren to run for the Senate? At 1:05 pm ET, President Obama will announce he’s naming former Ohio Attorney General Richard Cordray to head the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Bloomberg News: “Cordray became the assistant director for enforcement at the consumer bureau after he lost his re-election bid as Ohio attorney general in November. Elizabeth Warren, special adviser to the treasury secretary and assistant to the president, recruited him shortly after the election. Warren, a law professor on leave from Harvard University, won't remain as an assistant to the president, the senior administration official said.” So where is she going? Don’t be surprised if it’s a Senate bid to challenge Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown (R). As one plugged-in Democrat tells First Read, "Now that there's a nominee, [Warren] can seriously and finally make a decision about running for Senate.” As we've noted before, Warren is probably the ONLY Democrat that could give Brown a real race, since she'd have a national fundraising network she could build nearly instantly. If she gets in, it could rival Kaine-Allen as the marquee race of 2012.

*** NBC and Facebook team up to host NH "Meet The Press" debate: NBC News and Facebook today are announcing they are co-hosting a GOP presidential debate right before the New Hampshire primary. Per the press release, “On the Sunday immediately before the New Hampshire Republican primary, NBC News’ ‘Meet the Press’ and Facebook will present an innovative, multi-platform forum for the GOP presidential debate.  In this unique venue, candidates will make their case to voters and viewers will be able to react and discuss within their online communities. The event will take place at 9 a.m. ET in the historic Chubb Theatre at the Capitol Center for the Arts in Concord, New Hampshire. The NBC News Facebook GOP Debate, moderated by NBC's David Gregory, will air on the NBC network as a special edition of “Meet the Press” and will stream live on Facebook to create an interactive experience.” The oldest and most influential public affairs TV show in the country teams up with the largest and most influential social networking site in the world. Doesn't get bigger than that! Stay tuned into this space online and on Facebook and other social net sites for more on this debate later today.

*** Rick Perry to decide soon? Over the weekend, the Des Moines Register reported that Texas Gov. Rick Perry would likely decide whether he’ll run for president in the next two or three weeks. “I’m not ready to tell you that I’m ready to announce that I’m in,” Perry told the paper. “But I’m getting more and more comfortable every day that this is what I’ve been called to do. This is what America needs.” But he also said this: “I’ll be real honest with you, I don’t wake up in the morning – never did and still don’t today – and say, ‘Gee, I want to be president of the United States.’” Remember: Haley Barbour seemed like a sure bet to run, too. So did Mario Cuomo in 1992. And Mark Warner was absolutely a sure bet in 2006. So if you haven't announced already, there's a reason. He's not had a burning desire until now. Bottom line: No matter how many staffers are hired, nothing is done until it's done.

*** The official 2^nd quarter numbers: After looking at the 2^nd quarter fundraising reports, here are the actual numbers the presidential campaigns raised, as well as the amount of money they had in the bank at the end of the quarter (June 30):
-- Obama: $46.3 million raised, $37.1 million cash on hand
-- Romney: $18.4 million raised, $12.7 million cash on hand
-- Paul: $4.5 million raised, $3.0 million cash on hand
-- Pawlenty: $4.3 million raised, $2.0 million cash on hand ($1.4 million for the primary)
-- Bachmann: $4.2 million raised, $3.7 million cash on hand
-- Cain: $2.6 million (including $500,000 of his own money), $481,000 cash on hand
-- Gingrich: $2.1 million raised, $320,000 cash on hand
-- Santorum: $580,000 raised, $230,000 cash on hand
Note: Huntsman isn’t required to file until the 3^rd quarter, but his campaign says he raised $4.1 million (about half of which is his own money)

*** Grassroots donors vs. maxed-out donors: Per this handy New York Times breakdown, 49% of Obama’s $46.3 million came in donations under $200, and 26% were maximum $2,500 donations. By comparison, however, just 6% of Romney’s were under $200, while a whopping 70% were the maximum. In other words, Romney appears to have already maxed out his base of donors. (Where is the rest going to come from?) The other small-dollar percentages of campaign contributions under $200: Bachmann 67%, Cain 58%, Paul 54%, Gingrich 46%, Santorum 25%, Pawlenty 11%

*** Other 2^nd quarter tidbits: By the way, Romney only brought in a little over $2 million the day in May when his campaign announced they raked in $10 million-plus. His campaign tells First Read that the $10 million consisted of pledges, and the checks were processed when they were received. Some other nuggets via the Washington Post: “Mitt Romney is big into political consultants and security guards, underscoring the establishment nature of his campaign. Newt Gingrich is so fond of the Internet and luxury jets that he got himself $1 million in hock. And President Obama has devoted about a third of his $14 million in early expenditures to fundraising — suggesting that it really does take money to make money.”

*** Getting out of the Steele trap: The Republican National Committee has announced raising $19 million in the 2^nd quarter – which is half of the $38 million Obama raised for the Democratic National Committee under the joint Obama-DNC fund. The RNC’s figure is a pretty good one, considering they don’t have a sitting president to help them raise money. The bad news: The committee has $17.5 debt, after beginning with $25 million in debt at the beginning of the year. RNC Chairman Reince Priebus is trying to get out of the Steele trap and he’s turned the corner. But he has a ways to go…

*** On the 2012 trail: Bachmann holds a media avail in Omaha, NE after surveying flooding in Iowa with GOP Rep. Steve King; she later heads to South Carolina… Pawlenty’s in Iowa, kicking off an RV “Road to Results” tour that will end on Friday (here’s the RV)… And Santorum is in New Hampshire.

*** Congressman scuffles with armed intruder: This is a jaw-dropping story: “U.S. Rep. Leonard Boswell scuffled with an armed intruder at his southern Iowa farmhouse late Saturday night before his grandson pointed a gun at the intruder, who then fled,” the Des Moines Register reports. “No arrests had been reported by Sunday evening. Decatur County Sheriff Herbert Muir said Sunday night that he doesn't think Boswell's house was targeted, either because of his job or for another reason. He said it was probably a random attempted robbery thwarted in part because the robber didn't realize how many people were in the house.”

*** Monday’s “Daily Rundown” lineup: DGA Chairman Gov. Martin O’Malley (D-MD) and Americans for Tax Reform’s Grover Norquist on debt deal deliberations… The Cook Report’s Jennifer Duffy and Democratic strategist Jamal Simmons on Sen. McCaskill’s take that Sen. McConnell’s plan is “so that Mitch can become majority floor leader”… National Journal’s Beth Reinhard, the Washington Post’s Dan Balz, and the New York Times’ Jeff Zeleny on 2012 and more.

Countdown to Wisconsin recall general/primaries for Dem senators: 1 day
Countdown to Wisconsin recall general for GOP senators: 22 days
Countdown to Iowa GOP straw poll: 26 days
Countdown to Wisconsin recall general for Dem senators: 29 days
Countdown to NV-2 and NY-9 special elections: 57 days
Countdown to Election Day 2011: 113 days
Countdown to the Iowa caucuses: 203 days
* Note: When the IA caucuses take place depends on whether other states move up

Click here to sign up for First Read emails.
Text FIRST to 622639, to sign up for First Read alerts to your mobile phone.
Check us out on Facebook and also on Twitter. Follow us @chucktodd, @mmurraypolitics, @DomenicoNBC, @aliweinberg, @brookebrower