Our breakdown of the 2^nd quarter fundraising expectations game: A good quarter for Obama would be $60 million-plus (almost twice what he raised in the 2^nd quarter of ’07), and a great quarter would be $80 million-plus… A very good quarter for Romney would be $30-$40 million (more than he raised in the 1^st quarter of ’07)… What would be bad news for Pawlenty: If he doesn’t raise more than $6.5 million (the amount that Chris Dodd and Bill Richardson pulled in the 1^st quarter of ’07)

*** The dash for dollars: The first milepost of the 2012 presidential race comes on Thursday, when the 2^nd fundraising quarter (April 1 to June 30) ends. While the campaigns don’t have to officially file their fundraising numbers until July 15, we can still play the financial expectations game, according to history and our reporting. Let’s start with President Obama: A good quarter for him would be in excess of $60 million -- which is almost twice the amount (about $35 million) that both George W. Bush raised in the 2^nd quarter of 2003 and Obama himself raised in the 2^nd quarter of 2007. A great quarter would $80 million or more. (If he’s going to raise $1 billion, he’s got to average about $150 million per quarter, and you’d expect his numbers to increase by the general election.) As a lowball number, the campaign says it’s shooting for a combined $60 million with the DNC’s cash. What to watch: Obama’s online fundraising; despite initial concerns that it might not match his 2008 pace, we’ve heard Team Obama is more than pleased with its online haul so far. It says it has a goal of 450,000 overall donors this quarter…

*** Obama's team pushes back against the $60 million and $80 million figures, saying they aren't realistic. "All of the president's events have been joint events for the DNC and the campaign (the Obama victory fund), and a higher share of those dollars go to the DNC – so your expectations for the campaign are totally unrealistic and not going to be met by a longshot," campaign spokesman Ben LaBolt tells First Read. "Why would the campaign itself be expected to double or exceed doubling what we did in '07, without a primary opponent? That just aint going to happen."

*** Obama vs. Romney: As everyone expects, Romney will lap the GOP field in fundraising. His campaign is floating a haul of about $20 million for the quarter, but remember he raised MORE than $20 million in the first quarter of 2007. Given his $10 million-plus single fundraising day -- in addition to all of his other fundraisers over the past couple of months -- a very good quarter would be in excess of $30-$40 million. Note: Romney is raising only primary money (maximum contribution $2,500), and he isn’t putting any of his personal money into the pot.

*** The rest: TPaw, Bachmann, and Huntsman: As Politico reported last week, the buzz is that Tim Pawlenty has been struggling on the financial front. We’ve heard and read that he’s expected to raise more than $2 to $4 million, which would be less than $6 million-plus that both Chris Dodd and Bill Richardson pulled in during the 1^st quarter of 2007. Anything substantially less than that -- let alone the $10 million-plus Romney raised in a single day -- would be yet another blow for his campaign. Although Michele Bachmann has been in the race for just two weeks, she’s proved she’s a formidable fundraiser, having raked in more than $13.5 million for her House race last year, and she has nearly $2 million left over from that campaign she can roll over to her presidential account. Similarly, Huntsman has been in the race for just a week, but pulled in $1.2 million in a single fundraiser, and has a total of 18 money events between his announcement and June 30. He has also said he’s loaning the campaign a certain amount to “prime the pump.”

Bachmann’s turn for overdrive: Before her official campaign announcement today, Des Moines Register poll shows her running neck-and-neck for the lead in Iowa… The poll has rough news for Pawlenty, and it shows that Romney is the strong overall front-runner in the GOP race… Obama today talks debt ceiling with Reid and McConnell (separately)… And a possible compromise: defense spending cuts.

*** Bachmann’s turn for overdrive: More than two weeks ago, we said it was important to take a Michele Bachmann campaign seriously, and the new Des Moines Register poll of likely Iowa GOP caucus-goers backs that up. According to the survey, Mitt Romney (at 23%) is running neck-and-neck with Bachmann (22%), followed by Herman Cain (10%), Newt Gingrich (7%), Ron Paul (7%), Tim Pawlenty (6%), and Rick Santorum (4%). Bachmann couldn’t have wished for better news to set up her official announcement, which she makes today from Waterloo, IA at 10:00 am ET. And surprisingly, the poll overshadowed Sarah Palin’s stop in Iowa on Tuesday, which had the potential of overshadowing Bachmann’s day today. Bachmann has one good problem: She’s peaking early. Can she keep it up? And keep this in mind: Bachmann is doing this without the so-called MSM; in fact, she’s even doing it without FOX News (whose Chris Wallace asked her yesterday if she was a “flake”).

*** Rough news for Pawlenty: If the poll is great news for Bachmann, it’s bad news for Pawlenty -- who has put so much effort into Iowa. (Do note, however: The poll was conducted before his TV advertising in the state began.) The Des Moines Register survey, on top of the rough two weeks he’s had after the New Hampshire debate, has to hurt fundraising (more on that below). On “TODAY” this morning, Pawlenty responded that these early polls aren’t always good predictors. “If they were, we’d have Hillary Clinton as president,” he said, noting that Mike Huckabee was at 4% in the poll at this point in the ’08 cycle. “We still have plenty of time.”

*** Romney the strong front-runner: And then we come to Romney. He’s now out in front in both Iowa (barely) and New Hampshire (overwhelmingly). Yes, he’s vulnerable. But he’s just not the front-runner; he’s a STRONGER front-runner than many in Washington will believe. Then again, the last three strong front-runners in the summer before the nominating contests were Howard Dean (2004), Hillary Clinton (2008), and Mitt Romney himself (2008). The one bad piece of news for Romney in the Des Moines Register poll: It takes away his ability to make a surprising finish in the Hawkeye State, even if he decides not to play in the caucuses. And given his 52%-38% fav/ufav among likely caucus-goers (compared with Bachmann’s 64%-12% score and Pawlenty’s 58%-13%), he doesn’t have much more room for growth. In fact, he’s just the second choice of 10% of likely caucus-goers.

*** On the 2012 trail: Romney’s in New Hampshire, holding events in Salem and Concord… Santorum’s in Iowa… And Huntsman raises money in California.

*** Going negative early: On Friday, the Karl Rove-founded Crossroads GPS group announced it was launching a $20 million TV ad campaign aimed at President Obama, including a $5 million buy that begins today. Is there ever a bad time to spend $20 million? However, you could argue that this is a coming a little early. Does it have the ability to numb the public -- especially in the battleground states -- if we head down this negative path so early?

*** Obama to meet with Reid and McConnell (separately) to discuss the debt ceiling: Away from the presidential campaign trail, the big story remains the debt-ceiling talks. Obama and Vice President Biden meet with Senate Majority Leader Reid at 10:30 am ET, and then they meet separately with Senate Minority Leader McConnell at 5:00 pm. McConnell, per his office, will tell the president that raising taxes has to be off the table. Democrats, of course, want to cut oil subsidies and raise taxes on the very rich. And there does appear to be some wiggle room, but not much. McConnell aide Don Stewart wouldn't say if raising taxes on those making $1 million a year, for example, is completely off the table. Instead, he said Democrats want hundreds of billions in new revenues and, "You can't get there with the easy stuff," he said.

*** Are defense spending cuts the path to compromise? But maybe they can get there will cuts in defense spending. The Washington Post: “As President Obama prepares to meet Monday with Senate leaders to try to restart talks about the swollen national debt, some Republicans see a potential path to compromise: significant cuts in military spending. Senior GOP lawmakers and leadership aides said it would be far easier to build support for a debt-reduction package that cuts the Pentagon budget — a key Democratic demand — than one that raises revenue by tinkering with the tax code. Last week, Republicans walked out of talks led by Vice President Biden, insisting that the White House take tax increases off the table.” Defense cuts are a possibility, says Michael Steel, a spokesman for House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH), who is going to play a key role in the final outcome of a debt-limit deal. “Boehner has always said that there's waste at the Pentagon, just like the rest of the government,” Steel told First Read before adding, “Tax hikes on small businesses are definitely off the table.”

Countdown to Iowa GOP straw poll: 47 days
Countdown to NV-2 special election: 78 days
Countdown to Election Day 2011: 134 days
Countdown to the Iowa caucuses: 224 days
* Note: When the IA caucuses take place depends on whether other states move up

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“Mitt Romney and Michele Bachmann sit atop the standings in the first Des Moines Register Iowa poll on the Republican field, the Register reports. Romney has 23% of support from likely Republican caucus-goers, and Bachmann trails him by only one point with 22 percent. “The other candidates tested register in single digits: former U.S. Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich and Texas Rep. Ron Paul, 7 percent each; former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, 6 percent; former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, 4 percent; and former Utah Gov. and ambassador to China Jon Huntsman, 2 percent.” (Here’s the full poll.)

Even if fundraising reports don’t always predict the winner of a primary, the second-quarter campaign finance reports candidates will fill at the end of the month will be informative, National Journal writes: “Electability is on Republican voters' minds already; now, we get a hint at just who can make the credible argument that they can go toe to toe with perhaps the best finance operation in American political history.”

BACHMANN: The Des Moines Register takes a closer look at Bachmann’s numbers in the Iowa poll: “Bachmann, 55, rates the strongest with very conservative caucusgoers, along with those who are well-educated and ages 45 to 64. More respondents pick her as their second choice, 18 percent, than name Romney, 10 percent.”

AP on the countdown to the Bachmann kickoff announcement: “Michele Bachmann, a Minnesota congresswoman with deep tea party appeal, was ready Monday to officially plow into the Republican presidential primary with a conservative and often freewheeling message honed to the party's base.”

In an interview on “TODAY,” Bachmann told NBC’s Kelly O’Donnell: "I'm a businesswoman. As a former federal tax lawyer, I've seen the devastation of high taxes on businesses, farmers and individuals. I've seen it, I've lived it, I've practiced that in the courtroom."

On the eve of her big speech, Bachmann took a stroll down memory lane in Waterloo, reminiscing about her house “near the Dairy Queen,” the old family church and eating Wonder Bread sandwiches, the Register writes.

Bachmann went up on the radio in Iowa on Friday, in which she calls Waterloo is her hometown and invited Iowans to a “welcome home” event last night, Politico reports. 

And we're not sure that Herman Cain or Gary Johnson have gotten this question, which might ignite another round of sexism charges: "On 'Fox News Sunday,' host Chris Wallace quizzed Bachmann on a series of apparent inconsistencies in her legislative record and personal background — from Medicare to government subsidies and earmarks to her opposition to same-sex marriage," the Washington Post says.

"Then, as he wrapped up the interview, Wallace asked her: 'Are you a flake?' 'I think that would be insulting to say something like that because I’m a serious person,' Bachmann retorted. In the face of sharp questioning from Wallace, Bachmann appeared steely and calm, noting that she has 'a titanium spine.'"

GINGRICH: Speaking at a Tea Party bus tour event in Indianola, IA, Gingrich said the passage of gay marriage in New York showed the nation is “drifting toward a terrible muddle,” Reuters reports. “Saying he thinks marriage is between a man and a woman, he told reporters that he ‘would like to find ways to defend that view as legitimately and effectively as possible.’”

HUNTSMAN: “Huntsman’s chances of winning South Carolina’s first-in-the-South GOP 2012 presidential primary took a hit Sunday when U.S. Sen. Jim DeMint said he will not support his candidacy,” the Greenville News writes. “Huntsman, formerly governor of Utah, has declined to sign a pledge to support a balanced budget amendment to the U.S. Constitution, and that’s a deal-breaker for fellow Republican DeMint.”

PAUL: Bloomberg news notes that Ron Paul, and particularly his anti-Federal Reserve message, has become more mainstream – unlike his bid four years ago.

PAWLENTY: Although Pawlenty has spent 26 days in Iowa this election cycle, has a strong stable of Iowa operatives and was the first in the state to go up with a TV ad, he registered only 6 percent in the first Des Moines Register Iowa poll, the Register reports. (But the poll was conducted just before Pawlenty went up with his ads in Iowa.) “If I were the Pawlenty camp, I would be enormously concerned about this poll,” the Cook Political Report’s Jennifer Duffy told the Register.

Pawlenty spokesman Eric Woolson compared Pawlenty’s standings to those of Mike Huckabee, the underdog who eventually won Iowa. “Sunday’s poll and others like it are a flashback to four years ago, when Mike Huckabee was at a similar position – well liked but not yet widely known,” Woolson said, according to the Register. (The silver lining in the poll is that he has high favorability ratings.)

Adding to his cable ad buy in the state, Pawlenty is running radio ads in the Des Moines Media market from June 24^th to July 4th, Politico reports.

The radio ad’s message is similar to what’s being broadcast on TV:

Pawlenty: When I ran for governor I said, look, we have to tell the truth, and the truth is, the liberal approach has failed our state.
Announcer: For decades, Minnesota spending had grown at twenty percent.  Tim Pawlenty shrank that down to one percent, and cut spending in real terms for the first time in history.
But that's not all.
Pawlenty did heath care reform the right way.  No mandates. No takeovers.
And on nominating judges?
Pro-life Pawlenty turned a liberal supreme court into a conservative one.
Pawlenty: If I can do it in Minnesota, we can do it in Washington.

ROMNEY: Though Romney led the Iowa Poll, he only got 23% of the vote. Historically, only once since 1980 has anyone gotten less than 30% of the vote and won Iowa – Bob Dole in 1996 won with 26% over Pat Buchanan who grabbed 23%. Romney was only the second choice of 10% in the poll, tied with Herman Cain. Bachmann topped the second choice column with 18%. Paul and Pawlenty finished higher than Romney, each getting 12%.

SANTORUM: The Rick Santorum campaign announced on Friday that former Rep. Gresham Barrett (R-SC) will chair Santorum’s efforts in South Carolina, the AP reports. Barrett ran for governor in 2010 and was defeated in a runoff by now-Gov. Nikki Haley, who won with 65% of the vote.

The two big issues this week: the debt ceiling and Libya. The House is off, so all the action is on the Senate side. Today, President Obama and Vice President Biden meet separately with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) on the debt ceiling. McConnell will tell Obama that raising taxes has to be off the table, McConnell spokesman Don Stewart tells First Read. Bloomberg reports that “among the tensions the president may confront” in his meeting with McConnell is a $72 billion business tax break that Obama is targeting. The White House sees the “so-called last-in-first-out, or LIFO, provision,” as a loophole. It’s “a method of accounting for inventory costs.”

On Friday, Democrats said for the first time out loud what was already known by most observers -- that they want to cut oil subsidies and raise taxes on the very rich. But it remained unclear by how much. By the way, The Hill notes that Democrats don’t want measures that “raise tax revenue” to be called “tax increases.”

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi told CNN that “tax subsidies” have to be on the table. “You can’t cut your way out of the deficit,” Pelosi said, per Bloomberg. “You have to have revenue on the table.”

But McConnell contended on ABC, “Throwing more tax revenue into the mix won’t get us the desired results. And it won’t pass.”

There appears to be at least some wiggle room for Republicans on taxes, but not much. Stewart wouldn't say if raising taxes on those making $1 million a year, for example, is completely off the table. Instead, he said Democrats want hundreds of billions in new revenues and, "You can't get there with the easy stuff," he said.

Not easy for Republicans are defense cuts, but apparently those, too, are on the table, the Washington Post reports. That’s a possibility, says Michael Steel, a spokesman for House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH), who is going to play a key role in the final outcome of a debt-limit deal. “Boehner has always said that there's waste at the Pentagon, just like the rest of the government,” Steel told First Read before adding, “Tax hikes on small businesses are definitely off the table.”

Roll Call outlines the tricky path for Boehner to negotiate something that will “win the backing of the majority of his Conference.”

On Libya, on Friday, the House voted down a resolution that would have authorized continued use of force, similar to one being considered in the Senate and could come up for a vote this week, sponsored by Sens. John McCain (R-AZ) and John Kerry (D-MA). The House also, however, voted down a bill "to limit the use of funds" in support of NATO for the Libya operation.

The Democratic split on Libya was clear on Meet the Press with Sens. Jack Reed (D-RI) and Jim Webb (D-VA). Reed said he'd support Kerry-McCain. Webb, on the other hand, pointed to Senate Foreign Relations Committee Ranking Member Sen. Dick Lugar's (R-IN) five amendments to Kerry-McCain that would limit the president's authority, including not allowing ground troops, peace-keeping, or nation-building there.

Tomorrow, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee holds a hearing on Libya with the State Department lawyers who crafted the administration's argument that it is not engaging in "hostilities." Then the committee is expected to mark up Kerry-McCain. It's not clear yet when it could come up for a full Senate vote.

“President Obama will now take a leading role in negotiations to raise the debt limit, a test of his leadership that will have profound economic effects,” The Hill writes, adding, “Obama will meet this morning with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) and this afternoon with Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.). Democratic aides characterized these meetings as an appeal to the ‘cooler heads’ in the Senate. Cantor’s sudden move was initially seen as a blow that threatened to collapse the talks. But Republican aides said Friday it was part of an expected and natural transition to the final phase, which they said would have to take place between the president and Congress’s highest-ranking leaders.”

While the New York Times editorial page and Maureen Dowd have criticized Obama for not leading on the drive for gay marriage, the paper’s Nick Confessore  has a piece suggesting that the politics of gay marriage are a bit different outside the East Coast. “After a string of defeats in recent years from California to Maine, the movement to legalize same-sex marriage is hoping its unexpected victory in New York will revive efforts to legalize gay weddings around the nation. But the movement’s success here could prove difficult to replicate. Twenty-nine states have constitutional bans on same-sex marriage, while 12 others have laws against it. And many of those states where support for same-sex marriage is high have already acted on the issue.” 

“An independent expenditure committee run by Democrats launched a six-figure media buy Monday targeting eight House Republicans for voting in favor of their party’s Medicare reform plan,” Roll Call reports. “The House Majority Political Action Committee hits GOP Reps. Rick Crawford (Ark.), Tim Griffin (Ark.), Scott Tipton (Colo.), Steve King (Iowa), Bobby Schilling (Ill.), Charles Bass (N.H.) and Joe Heck (Nev.) in radio spots for voting in April in support of the House GOP budget resolution, which includes Medicare reform. The group is running a similar advertisement criticizing Rep. Chip Cravaack (R-Minn.) on cable.”

This, in addition, to conservative-aligned group Crossroads GPS announcing Friday a $20 million initiative, including a $5 million ad buy against President Obama on the economy. Those ads begin airing today in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Missouri, North Carolina, New Mexico, Nevada, and Virginia.

Members of Congress are getting far fewer visits from endorsement-seeking presidential hopefuls this election cycle given the unpopularity of Washington, Politico writes. Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) half-jokingly called an insider’s endorsement “the kiss of death.”

NEW HAMPSHIRE: President Obama may be faced with more pressure to push for same-sex marriage, as Republicans in the first-in-the-nation primary state are likely to vote on a repeal on a state law allowing gay marriage, around the same time as the state’s primary, The Hill writes.

PENNSYLVANIA: “Republicans know they can't afford to get greedy when they redraw the Pennsylvania Congressional map this time around,” Roll Call reports. “The Keystone State GOP stretched the boundaries of its House districts beyond their limits a decade ago, producing a handful of competitive seats that have traded party hands in the wave elections of recent cycles.”

Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R) is headed back into the political spotlight. The only question is for how long.

Palin, who may or may not run for president, will attend on Tuesday the premiere of a glowing pro-Palin documentary in Iowa, which holds the first presidential nominating contest.

The documentary, “The Undefeated,” chronicles her accomplishments as Alaska governor, highlights the attacks she received from Hollywood and the media when she was the GOP’s vice-presidential nominee in 2008 and throws some punches at the Republican Party’s establishment, accusing GOP leaders of not defending her.

Although Palin played no personal role in producing the documentary, she has screened the film (and so have numerous members of the political press corps).

Palin’s appearance in Iowa could potentially step on Michele Bachmann’s official presidential announcement in the Hawkeye State, which takes place on Monday.

Palin was accused of stepping on Mitt Romney’s official presidential announcement in New Hampshire earlier this month, when her East Coast bus tour arrived in the Granite State the same day as Romney’s announcement.

Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) has laid out what he says can't be part of a debt-ceiling compromise to the president, namely tax increases.

While Boehner is asking the president to "lead," Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) held a conference call today to ask the Republicans to act like "adults." 

"As you know, the rug was pulled out from under the discussions yesterday when Leader Cantor abruptly exited the talks," Schumer said. "To paraphrase Speaker Boehner, this was not an adult moment."

Today was one of the first times Van Hollen, who has been a part of the debt-ceiling talks with Vice President Joe Biden, has laid out some of the revenue raisers that the Democrats are trying to work into a deal -- oil company subsidies and tax breaks for the rich.

"The signal they [Republicans] sent was they're prepared to put everyone's jobs at risks in order to protect tax payer subsidies for big oil companies, tax breaks for corporate jets and tax preferences for billionaires," Van Hollen said.

It has been unclear for weeks whether the Republicans involved in the talks would be willing to accept some revenue raisers along with spending cuts, to help offset raising the debt ceiling by trillions of dollars. Before pulling out of the debt-ceiling talks, asked if closing tax loopholes or eliminating certain tax credits were on the table, Cantor said, "More revenues really comes from growth in the private sector. But if you want to talk about the kind of revenues the other side seems to want to talk about, for instance, we are talking trillions in these discussions. Right? And let's just say that there is a loophole that the other side is fixated on because perhaps they don't like the parties that may enjoy some type of preference or loophole in the code, for instance oil and gas industries. You look at the value of the so called revenue savings...you have to wonder, is this about policy and substance or is this about politics?"

Reporters tried to nail Cantor down on if there are any acceptable revenue raisers, but he demurred.

It's also unclear if cutting subsidies or raising taxes on the rich are all Democrats want. And it's also not clear by how much Democrats would want to do either. A Democratic plan in 2007 would have cut $14 billion in oil subsidies over 10 years.

Van Hollen said he thought there was some hope on this issue last week, when the Senate voted to limit some of the ethanol subsidies for the purpose of deficit reduction. 

"Apparently that did not signal any move from the Republican position of protecting special-interest tax breaks," Van Hollen said. "Look, it's pretty simple, until the Republicans are more worried about reducing the deficit than they are about Grover Norquist, we've got a problem."

Norquist is the anti-tax activist from the Americans for Tax Reform. Most of the GOP -- 236 House members, 41 senators, and most of the presidential candidates -- have signed the his group's Tax Protection Pledge. The pledge states that along with opposing an increase in the income-tax rate for individuals and businesses the signer will also "oppose any net reduction or elimination of deductions and credits, unless matched dollar for dollar by further reducing tax rates."

That is, in part, why Boehner said this: "The president and his party may want a debt-limit increase that includes tax hikes, but such a proposal cannot pass the House."

Schumer added, "What is increasingly clear is that Republicans will not have enough votes in their caucus ... to get this deal passed. They need Democrats to get a deal passed. That means a final deal will have to include some Democratic priorities."

So, what now? The president is meeting with Senate leaders next week, including Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell who also opposes tax increases being on the table. Both parties have clearly outlined the lines in the sand. What's unclear is how this hurdle gets cleared, before Aug. 2nd, with both parties being able to save face.

Crossroads GPS, one of the two Karl Rove-founded GOP outside groups that played such a big role in last year's midterm elections, is back on the air.

This time, it's running a $5 million ad buy -- as part of a $20 million initiative -- hitting President Obama on the economy. The two-week ad campaign begins airing on Monday, and it will appear in battleground states like Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Missouri, North Carolina, New Mexico, Nevada, and Virginia. It also will air in Nebraska and Montana, which hold key Senate contests in 2012.

"Fourteen million out of work.America drowning in debt," the ad concludes. "It’s time to take away Obama’s blank check."

Bill Burton of the Democratic Super PAC group Priorities USA Action issued this statement about the Crossroads GPS ad buy:

"Not content with the grave economic crisis he helped to leave our country with, Karl Rove now wants to stop President Obama from fixing it. While President Obama is making progress, the Republican economic plan would 'essentially end Medicare' in order to give tax breaks to oil companies and their other wealthy donors. Whether it's by running millions of dollars in negative ads about the economy or by walking away from critical economic talks in Congress, Washington Republicans are demonstrating an unwavering commitment to stopping any real progress on the economy."

President Obama picked the industry-heavy city of Pittsburgh to announce a new initiative to encourage public and private sector collaboration to develop innovations in manufacturing, which he said he hoped would usher in “a renaissance of American manufacturing.”

Surrounded by high-tech machinery as he stood in Carnegie Mellon University's Engineering Center, the president introduced the Advanced Manufacturing Partnership, which will make $500 million of federal funding available to corporations and universities for research and development in emerging technologies.

An example is a decision by Procter & Gamble to share with smaller manufacturers software that it created with the Los Alamos National Laboratory that would reduce the cost of developing diapers by simulating some physical materials involved in the research process, rather than actually using those materials.

"Folks chuckle, but those who've been parents are always on the lookout for indestructible, military-grade diapers," Obama said.

The president's announcement comes as unemployment claims ticked up by 9,000 claims between the last two preceding weeks. He lamented that, for better or worse, this generation "has been pounded by wave after wave of economic change," including the prevalence of outsourcing and advancements in efficiency that have led to the disappearance of about a third of manufacturing jobs in the past 13 years.

He said that this partnership is geared toward helping manufacturers find new products to create, which the administration hopes will lead to more jobs to make such products.

"We have not run out of stuff to make,” Obama said. “We’ve just got to reinvigorate our manufacturing sector so that it leads the world the way it always has.”

In a conference call before the president's speech, Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus said because of the poor economy, President Obama would not fare as well in Pennsylvania as he did in the 2008 general election, when he won the crucial state by more than 10 percentage points.

"In 2008, Pennsylvania went for Obama based on his rhetoric,” Priebus contended. “In 2012 he's going to be judged on his results.”

Democrats also have a built-in advantage in the Keystone state, because they have about a million more registered voters than Democrats. The last time Republicans won Pennsylvania was in the 1988 landslide, when George H.W. Bush beat Michael Dukakis by just 2 points

Republicans, though, saw big gains in Pennsylvania in the 2010 elections, electing a Republican governor and senator, and now, just seven of the state's 19 House members are Democrats. Pennsylvania GOP Chairman Bob Gleason predicted the state would not swing Democratic again in 2012.

"We're almost red,” Gleason said, “and we're going to finish it off next year.”

Domenico Montanaro also contributed to this report.

Produced and edited by Andrew Gross and Domenico Montanaro

Speaking at a National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO) event in San Antonio yesteday, Texas Gov. Rick Perry delivered a joke that reportedly fell flat with the Hispanic audience.

“Young Hispanics in Texas can aspire to be the next Rolando Pablos, the chairman of the Texas racing commission; maybe the next Roberto de Hoyos, who heads our economic development shop; and one of my favorites, the head of the Texas Alcoholic Beverage Commission Jose Cuevas." 

The joke: Cuevas sounds a lot like the tequila brand Jose Cuervo.

"Is that awesome? That is the right job for that man," Perry said.

As the AP noted, "But a joke about how perfect it was to appoint Jose Cuevas to the Texas Alcoholic Beverage Commission because his name sounds like Jose Cuervo - a brand of tequila - fell flat. Perry struggled to regain his confidence as he described Texas as a land of opportunity."

The House has voted against giving President Obama limited authorization to continue on with the operations in Libya. This is the resolution that was sponsored by Rep. Alcee Hastings (D-FL) and is similiar to the Kerry/McCain resolution.

The vote: 123 (115 Dems, 8 GOPers) were in favor of the resolution, while 295 voted against it (70 Dems, 225 GOPers).

The House now moves on to debating the resolution to defund some of America's efforts in Libya.

*** UPDATE ***
The eight Republicans who voted yes:
Dent PA
Dreier CA (House Rules Chair)
King IA
King NY (House Homeland Security Chair)
Kinzinger IL
McCotter MI
Rivera FL
Rogers MI (House Intel Chair)

The 70 Dems members who voted no:
Andrews NJ
Baldwin WI
Becerra CA (Dem Leadership)
Bishop GA
Braley IA
Capuano MA
Carney DE
Carson IN
Cicilline RI
Clarke MI
Clarke NY
Clay MO
Conyers MI (Ranking Member of the Judiciary Committee)
Costello IL
Davis IL
DeFazio OR
Farr CA
Frank MA
Gonzalez TX
Green, Gene TX
Grijalva AZ (Head of the progressive caucus)
Gutierrez IL
Hanabusa HI
Himes CT
Hinchey NY
Hinojosa TX
Holt NJ
Honda CA
Jackson IL
Keating MA
Kucinich OH
Larson CT
Lee CA (former head of the congressional black caucus)
Lewis GA
Lipinski IL
Loebsack IA
Lofgren, Zoe CA
Luján NM
Lynch MA
Maloney NY
McGovern MA
McIntyre NC
Michaud ME
Miller, George CA
Moore WI
Murphy CT
Nadler NY
Pallone NJ
Pastor AZ
Peterson MN
Pingree ME
Quigley IL
Richardson CA
Ross AR
Sanchez, Loretta CA
Schrader OR
Scott VA
Serrano NY
Sherman CA
Shuler NC
Slaughter NY
Stark CA
Tierney MA
Tsongas MA
Velázquez NY
Visclosky IN
Waters CA
Waxman CA
Woolsey CA
Wu OR

A capacity crowd gathered last night at Watkins Recreation Center Park for what proved to be an historic night of semi-competitive women's charity softball.

Select female members of Congress faced off against the Washington press corps -- for charity. All proceeds of the event went to the Young Survival Coalition, an organization which works on behalf of young women with breast cancer.

Under the setting sun, the captain for the congressional team -- Sen. Kristen Gillibrand (D-NY) -- took to the mound with a laser focus, vanquishing press corps batters with no mercy and helping the members out to an early lead.

While this reporter was told the match between the two sides is often a quiet affair, a palpable tension hung heavy in the air as the innings wore on. Press coach Dave Espo (Associated Press) exchanged words with the umpires on numerous close calls drawing jeers from the members bench.

Deadlocked at 4-4 going into the final inning, a hush fell over the nearly 800 fans in attendance. Gillibrand stoically approached the mound and worked through the press side without incident.

As the members took their final turn at bat, even VIP members Nancy Pelosi (donning a celebratory cheerleader's pom-pom) and Steny Hoyer clamored for a view of the deciding at-bats.

Gillibrand was robbed of a single with an unforgettable grab in the outfield by a spry press member, and the congressional team was down to its last two outs.

In a questionable move by press coaches Espo and Carl Hulse (New York Times), the press corps intentionally walked two members -- hoping to take the bats out of the members' hands. With two runners on, DNC Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-FL) strode to the plate with the unmistakable look of determination in her eyes. Capitalizing on a pitch straight down the middle, Wasserman Schultz ripped a blazing liner between the second baseman and shortstop to drive home the winning run. Met by Sen. Gillibrand and the entire members team, Wasserman Schultz was mobbed at home plate by the female members of Congress, where they were presented with a pink and gold trophy to commemorate the victory.

With the sun finally vanished from the June sky, both teams shook hands and exchanged pleasantries. And as NBC's Andrea Mitchell -- who did the play-by-play for the event -- reminded everyone, the real winner was the Young Survival Coalition and the brave women every day fighting breast cancer.

Pelosi closed the evening, thanking all the participants and fans and praised her fellow members for a rousing performance, asserting, "When Democrats and Republicans work together, they can do great things."

From NBC's Shawna Thomas and Carrie Dann
A day after his second-in-command pulled out of bipartisan debt talks, House Speaker John Boehner delivered a direct challenge to the White House and said flatly that the House cannot pass a deficit-reduction deal that incorporates any tax increases.

“The president and his party may want a debt limit increase that includes tax hikes, but such a proposal cannot pass the House,” Boehner said in a statement.

Echoing the sentiment of GOP Majority Leader Eric Cantor, who abruptly withdrew from the Biden-led negotiations yesterday along with Senate counterpart Sen. Jon Kyl, R-Ariz., Boehner said that a debt ceiling deal must include direct involvement by the president. 

“If the president wants this done, he must lead,” Boehner said.

While Republicans and Democrats have agreed on substantial spending cuts, the issue of taxes to raise revenue remains at an impasse. Most Democrats believe that some tax hikes are necessary to help close the gaping federal deficit.

It’s unclear if Boehner’s statement also means that closing tax loopholes and nixing some existing tax credits are off the table for House Republicans.

Obama will meet Monday with Democratic and Republican leaders in the Senate in an effort to reboot the stalled talks, NBC confirmed. The White House has not yet contacted the Boehner's office to set up a meeting on the deal.

While GOP leaders have categorically refused to OK any tax increases, the public is mixed on whether or not raising taxes is an acceptable way to address the deficit.

Asked in an NBC/WSJ poll earlier this year, respondents were equally split, with a third favoring tax increases to address the deficit, a third advocating for “cutting important programs,” and a third preferring to delay addressing the deficit until later.

But more than 80 percent said placing a surtax on those making more than $1 million was acceptable, and nearly 70 percent were supportive of phasing out the Bush tax cuts for families earning $250,000 per year or more.

NBC's Mark Murray contributed to this report.

From msnbc.com's Tom Curry
The House will vote Friday on a bill that would cut off funds for some -- not all -- U.S. military operations in Libya.  The funding bill, offered by two-term Rep. Tom Rooney, R- Fla., has large exceptions: it would not stop funding for search and rescue, intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, operational planning, or aerial refueling operations.

Spokesman Michael Mahaffey said Friday that Rooney did not have an estimate of the amount of money that his bill would save, but “it does significantly cut back on what the administration is doing.”

But Republican presidential hopeful Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, told the House in debate Friday that Rooney’s bill would have little effect. “This says ‘deny funding’ but there are too many exceptions, and the exceptions are to allow the very things that the president is doing.” Paul said House members who oppose President Barack Obama’s Libya mission should defeat the Rooney bill, as well as defeating a one-year use of force authorization.

According to Sen. Richard Lugar, R-Ind., senior Republican on the Foreign Relations Committee, who argues that Obama needs to get congressional authorization for the Libya mission, said, “The administration estimates that the cost of these operations will exceed $1 billion by September.”

Here’s where that Libya spending fits in the larger defense budget.

Total Defense Department spending authority for the current fiscal year, which ends Sept. 30, is $671 billion. If U.S. operations over Libya end up costing $1 billion this fiscal year, that would be about one-tenth of one percent of total spending.

The defense spending bill for fiscal year 2012 which the House Appropriations Committee approved two weeks ago would decrease total spending by $22 billion from the current level, about a 3 percent cut.

It would reduce spending on operations in Afghanistan, Iraq and other places under the heading of the “Global War on Terror” by $39 billion, but increase other spending by $17 billion. For instance the bill would spend $15 billion on ten new ships for the Navy which now has 285 ships, the smallest Navy that the United States has had since 1916, according to Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Gary Roughead.

This year discretionary military spending -- not including retirement benefits -- will amount to 19 percent of total federal outlays. At the end of Bill Clinton’s presidency, discretionary military spending accounted for 16 percent of total spending. To bring spending back to the Clinton-era level, Congress would need to cut about $120 billion out of FY 2012 military spending -- more than five times as much as the House bill would cut.

Here's how we expect today's votes on Libya to go in the House:

1. Right now, the House is voting on the RULE to govern debate of both Libya-related measures. We could refer to this as a preliminary vote. This will pass.

2. The House will then move on to debating H. J. Res. 68, which authorizes the limited use of the U.S. Armed Forces in Support of the NATO mission in Libya. (This is similar to what Kerry/McCain introduced in the Senate.) After this debate concludes, the House will vote on this resolution. We expect this vote to happen between noon and 1:00 pm ET. We believe this will fail in the House.   

3. The House will then debate H.R. 2278, which limits the use of funds appropriated to the Department of Defense for Libya operations. The practical effect of this bill would be that the U.S. could not participate in aerial bombing campaigns in Libya anymore, but would still allow funds to be used for:

(1) search and rescue;
(2) intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance;
(3) aerial refueling;
(4) operational planning

Please note that the Senate has no plans to take up this second bill, and there's pretty much no chance it would become law. However, this vote will be interesting because there's a very good chance it could pass with bipartisan support. The GOP says they're not whipping it. Also, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton came and spoke to the Democratic caucus yesterday in an effort to shore up support for the preisdent's policy in Libya. 

We expect the vote on this bill to happen between 2:00 pm and 3:00 pm. 

With nearly eight months until IA and NH, Romney is acting and sounding like the GOP nominee… But is this all a primary strategy?... Obama talks manufacturing in Pittsburgh at 11:00 am ET… The oil stimulus… Obama, as expected, didn’t back gay marriage last night, but came close… Christie once again says no to 2012… The importance of Grover  Norquist… Today’s National Right to Life convention in FL… And Des Moines Register poll comes out Saturday night.

*** Eyeing the general election… : A funny thing has happened in the past week: Mitt Romney, more and more, is acting and sounding like the GOP’s general-election nominee. In advance of President Obama’s visit to Pittsburgh today, Romney pre-butted the appearance giving an interview to the Pittsburgh Tribune ("The president has failed the American people on the economy," he told the paper.) We learned he’s holding an upcoming fundraiser in London (even though he criticized Obama in his announcement speech for taking his inspiration “from the capitals of Europe”). Politico reports what everyone expects: that Romney will lap the GOP field in fundraising for the second quarter. And yesterday came news that Romney allies are creating a Super PAC -- which can raise and spend unlimited money -- to go head-to-head with one formed by Obama allies. Romney even quipped last week to a New Hampshire lumber company owner that the next time he’ll be back is in four years, when he’ll “probably have Secret Service.” And these are just the latest examples of Romney appearing to look past the primaries…

***… with nearly eight months to go until IA and NH: Asked if Team Romney is already eyeing the general election, spokeswoman Andrea Saul didn’t deny it: “This election is a referendum on President Obama and his failure to create jobs. Mitt Romney … has made restoring American competitiveness and growing our economy to create good jobs the central goals of his campaign.” But as Howard Dean, Hillary Clinton, and even Romney himself know well, winning the summer before primary season isn’t a guarantee of winning the nomination. After all, we have nearly eights to go before Iowa and New Hampshire. And as one of us already asked this week, does Romney’s general-election focus risk alienating GOP primary voters? Pawlenty spokesman Alex Conant tells First Read: “Anybody who wants to be the Republican nominee needs to do well in the early states of Iowa and New Hampshire, and be able to make a sharp contrast with President Obama on issues like individual mandates and health care. Tim Pawlenty will.”

*** But is it all about primary strategy? Yet one Romney ally makes this important point: His acting and sounding like the GOP nominee is all about the winning the primary. “The candidate and the organization fully recognize that this is a nomination that has to be earned from Republican voters,” the ally tells First Read. “It's a wide-open race and it will be very competitive.” But: “To win the nomination, you have to prove to Republican voters you have the best message, best organization and the ability to beat President Obama and what is expected to be a billion-dollar campaign organization on his behalf. Bracketing the president in Pittsburgh and organizing financial support from supporters currently overseas shows a candidate and an organization promoting a contrast with Obama on the number one issue, the economy.” In fact, the same ally contended, Romney isn’t alienating primary voters, but connecting with them because of his focus on the economy.

*** The oil stimulus: As mentioned above, Obama delivers a speech at 11:00 am ET at Carnegie Mellon University's National Robotics Engineering Center in Pittsburgh. Per the White House, his remarks will highlight the importance of manufacturing, and he’s unveiling a new initiative (the Advanced Manufacturing Partnership), which will encourage industry and universities to work together to devise innovations in domestic manufacturing. Yet the biggest economic news for Obama came yesterday, when the U.S. -- along with the International Energy Agency -- decided to release a combined 60 million barrels of oil to bring down fuel prices. Make no mistake: This is designed to provide more stimulus to the U.S. and world economy. The Washington Post: “In a note to clients, Eurasia Group analyst Greg Priddy called the stockpile release ‘stimulus’ by other means.’ With a key Federal Reserve program that bolsters the economy coming to an end, he said, ‘it seems policymakers in the executive branch, in the U.S. and elsewhere, have decided to pull another arrow from their quiver.’”

*** Obama didn’t back gay marriage, but came close: As expected, Obama didn’t fully back gay marriage at last night’s LGBT fundraiser in New York City, but he got close. "Yes, we have more work to do. Yes, we have more progress to make. Yes, I expect continued impatience with me on occasion. But understand this -- look, I think of teenagers like the one who wrote me, and they remind me that there should be impatience when it comes to the fight for basic equality.  We've made enormous advances just in these last two and a half years. But there are still young people out there looking for us to do more." He concluded, "If you keep up the fight, and if you will devote your time and your energies to this campaign one more time, I promise you we will write another chapter in that story [of progress]."

*** Christie once again says no on 2012: In an appearance on “TODAY,” where he talked about his bipartisan budget deal in New Jersey, Gov. Chris Christie once again said no on a 2012 presidential bid. “There is no different answer,” he said. “I am governor. I want to be governor.” When NBC’s Matt Lauer followed up if this means “no,” Christie answered in the affirmative. He said he wants the GOP to have a strong general-election nominee in 2012. “But it is not going to be me.” Also in the interview, Christie suggested his bipartisan deal should serve as a model to President Obama and congressional Republicans. “Everybody needs to take risk; everybody needs to bring skin in the game.” And he took this shot at Obama when Lauer asked what should be taking place on in the debt negotiations: “First, the president can show up.” Christie also appears on “Meet the Press” this weekend.

 *** The importance of Grover Norquist: When House Majority Leader Eric Cantor and GOP Sen. Jon Kyl walked away from the bipartisan debt talks yesterday, they didn’t blame Vice President Biden and the Democrats for negotiating in bad faith. They also didn’t cite an unwillingness to offer cuts or touch entitlement programs like Medicare. Instead, both Cantor and Kyl walked away because of tax increases. “The Democrats continue to insist that any deal must include tax increases,” Cantor said in a statement. House Speaker John Boehner later added, "These conversations could continue if they take the tax hikes out of the conversation." How did any kind of tax increase become non-negotiable -- when both Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush raised taxes, when tax levels are a decades-long low, when the U.S. is fighting three wars, and when polls show that tax hikes are acceptable to the public? Enter Grover Norquist.

*** His objective: to shrink government: Norquist is president of Americans for Tax Reform, and he created an anti-tax pledge beginning in 1986 for federal and state political candidates. The pledge bars them for supporting ANY tax increase on individuals and corporations, as well as any other revenue increases like eliminating certain tax credits. (The exception: It allows changes in deductions and credits if the same legislation offers an equal or greater tax reduction.) As of this month, 236 House members, 41 U.S. senators -- almost all of them Republicans -- had signed the pledge, including Boehner, Cantor, and Kyl. And Mitt Romney signed it yesterday once again. Norquist’s objective: to shrink the size of government by denying it tax revenue. “I don't want to abolish government. I simply want to reduce it to the size where I can drag it into the bathroom and drown it in the bathtub,” he told NPR in 2001. In an interview yesterday with First Read, Norquist said the drowning part was hyperbole. “I want it so small it could fit in the bathtub.”  

*** Democrats and Simpson fight back: Norquist doesn’t take credit for Cantor and Kyl walking away from the debt talks. But he says that the pledge makes politicians accountable for saying they won’t raise taxes. “He can’t weasel out of the pledge… Voters know the guy put it in writing.” Democrats believe Norquist and his pledge are chiefly responsible for blocking any kind of “grand bargain” on deficit reduction, with Democrats putting entitlement programs on the table and Republicans offering a compromise on tax revenue. So does one Republican, ex-Wyoming Sen. Alan Simpson: “Grover needs to get some rest, and I'd love to see him somehow come out for something instead of against,” Simpson said last year. Norquist’s retort to Simpson: “He just name calls. He just wants a tax increase. He can’t have one.”

*** But are extra revenues on the table? Yet what Simpson called for when co-chairing Obama’s deficit-reduction commission -- eliminating some tax deductions and subsidies as a way to boost revenues -- is still being considered by some Republicans. On MSNBC yesterday, Idaho Sen. Mike Crapo, who has been working with other senators on deficit reduction, said: “Revenue does need to be brought to the table.” But Norquist says that any focus on tax deductions and subsidies should be part of a separate tax-reform effort. “Tax reform is one issue, and spending reform is another issue.” Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s office agrees. “It’s a big, complicated effort that [McConnell] said will be done separately, as it can’t be done by Aug. 1,” said spokesman Don Stewart.

*** Addressing National Right to Life: A few Republican presidential hopefuls today will address the National Right to Life convention taking place in Jacksonville, FL. Herman Cain, Rick Santorum, and Ron Paul are scheduled to directly address the audience, while Bachmann and Pawlenty will speak via skype.

*** Weekend heads up: The Des Moines Register poll gauging the early 2012 GOP Iowa field will be released at 10:00 pm ET on Saturday.

*** On the 2012 trail: Elsewhere today, Huntsman campaigns in Nevada.

Countdown to Iowa GOP straw poll: 50 days
Countdown to NV-2 special election: 81 days
Countdown to Election Day 2011: 137 days
Countdown to the Iowa caucuses: 227 days
* Note: When the IA caucuses take place depends on whether other states move up

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Good soldiers? “The nation’s top military officer and its top diplomat made clear yesterday that President Obama rejected the advice of his generals in choosing a quicker path to winding down the war in Afghanistan,” the AP reports.

The Washington Post: “U.S. military leaders said Thursday that President Obama’s decision to remove forces from Afghanistan in the middle of a fighting season poses some risk to recent battlefield gains but publicly supported his plan to bring home 33,000 troops by the end of next summer. Neither his civilian advisers nor his military commanders won all that they had sought in Obama’s withdrawal decision, which will bring home 10,000 troops this year and another 23,000 by September 2012. But Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Gen. David H. Petraeus, the commander in Afghanistan, said in testimony on Capitol Hill that they believed the president had heard their proposals and set a policy they can carry out.”

The New York Times adds, “Gen. David H. Petraeus, the top American commander in Afghanistan, said Thursday that President Obama’s new schedule for drawing down forces there was “more aggressive” than he had recommended and increased the risk that the military would not meet all its goals. But General Petraeus, pressed for his personal views at a Senate hearing on his nomination as director of central intelligence, said the president had to consider many factors beyond the battlefield and that he fully accepted Mr. Obama’s plan. It would bring home 33,000 troops by September 2012 and withdraw the remaining 68,000 by the end of 2014."

Politico writes up Obama's appearance at the LGBT fundraiser in NYC: "President Barack Obama called for equal rights for gay couples Thursday, but stopped short of voicing support for legalizing same-sex marriage at a gala LGBT fundraiser held in the heart of a state whose legislature is on the verge of taking a vote on the issue. The president couched the notion of rights for the nation’s gay community in the framework of civil rights, casting his own election as part of an evolutionary process in the nation over the last two-and-a-half years, one that also involved economic woes and overseas wars."

First Lady Michelle Obama did pushups with Archbishop Desmond Tutu in South Africa.

Candidates next week will be shuttling around the country trying raise money just before the June 30^th FEC filing deadline, “the first milestone,” the Washington Times writes, “when the candidates, aides and the press can compare who is best-positioned in the early money chase — and who is coming up short.”

“Republicans are starting to pay more attention to the candidates who hope to take on President Barack Obama next year, and so far that's been a good thing for Michele Bachmann and Tim Pawlenty,” AP writes. “Not for Newt Gingrich. Overall, a new Associated Press-GfK poll shows, Republicans are giving the field of challengers a so-so assessment as interest in the race increases. And, with growing doubts among Americans that Obama deserves re-election, Democratic interest in the GOP field is significant, too.”

BACHMANN: “New York retiree Phyllis Hornung has never been to Minnesota and has no ties to the state -- other than the steady stream of campaign donations she sends to Michele Bachmann,” the AP reports. “Almost every other month last year, Hornung sent the conservative Republican congresswoman a check for $25, or sometimes $75. ‘She captured my heart immediately,’ said Hornung.” The big picture: “The $350 that Hornung has donated is a tiny fraction of the $13.5 million Bachmann hauled in for her 2010 race — more than any other candidate for Congress. But donors such as Hornung are the main supply line for a fundraising machine that is humming as Bachmann begins her campaign for the Republican presidential nomination.”

CAIN: The L.A. Times’ Malcolm writes: “Herman Cain may have found the perfect way to get media attention Wednesday: call the real journalists ‘stupid’ for believing the words that come out of his mouth, and deem the most popular faux journalist a racist for ... being a comedian.” What Cain said, "Don’t try to pass a 2,700-page bill.” And: "You and I didn’t have time to read it. We’re too busy trying to live — send our kids to school. That’s why I am only going to allow small bills — three pages. You’ll have time to read that one over the dinner table." Cain contends, “Some of these idiotic reporters thought I was serious. The joke’s on them.”

GINGRICH: Gingrich said yesterday in Baltimore to the Maryland GOP, per Talking Points Memo: "No administration in modern times has failed younger blacks more than the Obama administration.”

Newt Gingrich will meet the Iowa Tea Party bus tour on Saturday in Indianola, IA, his campaign announced yesterday. But Gingrich “declined to purchase a lot today to participate in the Ames straw poll, a national spokesman confirmed in an interview with The Des Moines Register. The decision is not a reflection of a troubled campaign but rather an effort to run a more focused grassroots organization, said spokesman R.C. Hammond.”

Gingrich was on with Bill O’Reilly yesterday and defended his campaign defections, NBC’s Lauren Selsky reports. O’Reilly asked if he was surprised so many people quit, to which Gingrich said he “wasn't surprised, because we had a basic difference about strategy. … I think we're in a different environment, like 1980 and 1994, and we need a very positive, solutions-oriented campaign and one that goes directly to all Americans and is very different from a traditional political campaign.

Asked why they all quit, Gingrich said, “I think part of it is just that the route I’m taking is a hard route. It’s a route that says we're going to talk about very big ideas; we're going to use the Internet…. We had a fundamental disagreement about the approach to the American people and how you should structure the campaign. John McCain went through something like this in the summer of 2007 -- the way you should focus on it.” And he said his advisers apparently thought his book on American exceptionalism was “fluff.” “I happen to think that's integral to the 2012 election,” Gingrich said of talking about the topic. “The consultants all thought it was fluff, that it was irrelevant.”

HUNTSMAN: Business Week’s McCormick this central point, “Every Presidential candidate has political baggage. Much of Jon Huntsman's is made in China. It's not just the two years he spent as Barack Obama's ambassador in Beijing, which some fellow Republicans are using to question whether he's sufficiently conservative. As he launches his campaign, Huntsman will likely find himself having to answer a much tougher question from recession-weary voters: Why is the booming family business that made him rich creating thousands of jobs in Asia and the rest of the world instead of the U.S.?”

National Journal interviews Huntsman, and he says his decision to enter the race was a last-minute one and that as of six months ago he always intended to return to the private sector. “Huntsman emphasized that his intention to resign had nothing to do with his political ambitions. ‘Heavens no,’ he said. ‘Absolutely not… That was a last-minute decision.’” National Journal notes: “The question of when Huntsman started preparing for a White House bid is a sensitive one because federal law prohibits administration officials from engaging in politics.” And: “Huntsman declined to reveal the amount of his own money he had invested in the campaign, but put the amount at $1 million to $2 million ‘in rough terms.’”

The Louisville Courier-Journal also brings up the Immaculate Campaign: “The move should prompt other questions that go beyond whether it's good form for an ambassador to resign and run against the president that appointed him. An ambassador is prohibited from taking part in partisan campaigns, but the story goes that some powerful elves were busy building Mr. Huntsman's campaign that was ready and waiting upon his return. The newly minted candidate said he was shocked and humbled to find all that groundwork done. Voters are forgiven if their skeptics' meters hit tilt.”

PAUL: “Ron Paul is ramping up his travel schedule over the next week while promoting a sometimes-overlooked part of his platform: his opposition to abortion rights,” The Hill writes. “The libertarian-leaning Texas congressman will look to burnish his credentials with anti-abortion-rights voters when he speaks at the National Right to Life Committee’s annual convention on Friday in the Sunshine State.”

PAWLENTY: “With a key fundraising deadline looming, GOP presidential candidate Tim Pawlenty will spend nearly all of next week soliciting money from donors to fill his campaign coffers,” The Hill reports. “Between Monday and Thursday, the former Minnesota governor is scheduled to travel to New York City, Atlanta and Florida to make one last fundraising push before Thursday’s second-quarter filing deadline with the Federal Election Commission.”

A survey of the National Association of Evangelicals’ 100-some board members revealed that 45 percent of them would name Tim Pawlenty as their favored Republican candidate, versus just 14 percent for Mitt Romney, Christianity Today reports.

PERRY: Perry told McClatchy yesterday on his considering a bid for president: "I'm still giving it good cogitation," he said.

Another indication Rick Perry wants to run for president? His aides are contacting the organizer of a small 4-H fair in New Hampshire to inquire about setting up a booth at the fair, Real Clear Politics reports. The organizer, Republican consultant Fran Wendelboe, said, “My event is pretty small potatoes. You don't have someone call to inquire about renting a booth unless you're pretty sure that you may need to book one."

Perry got a lukewarm reception from audience members at the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials yesterday, the Texas Tribune reports. “Perry’s appearance before the group in San Antonio came less than 24 hours before a House committee will meet to decide if one of the most divisive issues of the session, the “sanctuary cities” legislation, advances to the House floor for a debate. The timing did not appear to be lost on the crowd of more than 500. And if it was a litmus test for Perry, who is considering a run for the White House next year, it signaled the climb to woo Hispanics is currently an uphill one at best.”

ROMNEY: Mitt Romney is getting his own super-PAC, called Restore our Future PAC. The New York Times: “Citing a similar effort that recently started on behalf of President Obama and the Obama campaign’s vow to raise record amounts for his re-election, Mr. Romney’s campaign welcomed the help.”

Romney sat down with the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review to criticize President Obama’s economic policies ahead of the president’s visit to the city today to talk about manufacturing. “[I[s he proud of the 160,000 jobs lost in Pennsylvania since he was elected president?" Romney said. "Or the 51,000 manufacturing jobs lost in Pennsylvania?"

A little presumptuous? “Mitt Romney is planning to travel to London next month for a fund-raiser in one of the banking capitals of the world, soliciting campaign contributions from well-connected Americans abroad as he attempts to expand his fund-raising base across the Atlantic,” the Boston Globe reports.

“Congressional Republicans abruptly pulled out of debt-reduction talks with the White House on Thursday and demanded that President Obama meet directly with GOP leaders to resolve an impasse over taxes,” the Washington Post says. “With the clock ticking toward an Aug. 2 deadline, senior Republicans said negotiations led by Vice President Biden had ceased making headway as congressional Democrats pressed for as much as $400 billion in new taxes on corporations and the nation’s wealthiest households.”

IOWA: Straw poll drama: As candidates made bids on lots for the Ames straw poll yesterday, “pressure spiked” as one candidate who made an offer declined to be identified, the Des Moines Register reports. People representing other campaigns walked out in protest, but the walk-out ended after Rep. Thaddeus McCotter agreed to be identified.

The Iowa Republican has the breakdown of bidding for spots at the straw poll. Ron Paul was the highest bidder for a lot for $31,000. 

The Washington Post’s Cilizza has a primer on what we’ll learn – and what we won’t learn – from the Des Moines Register’s Saturday release of its first Iowa ballot test.

NEW HAMPSHIRE: At a press conference in the New Hampshire Legislative Office Building, Iowa GOP Chairman Matt Strawn pledged to work with his Granite State counterparts to maintain their posts as the nation’s first two primary states, the New Hampshire Union-Leader writes. “There is no daylight between Iowa and New Hampshire in protecting our states’ roles,” Strawn said. “You have an ally in the Hawkeye State.”

In response to President Obama's announcement that he will begin removing U.S. troops from Afghanistan next month, Afghan President Hamid Karzai expressed gratitude to the troops today, just days after accusing the coalition forces of having ulterior motives and of negotiating with the Taliban.

"The transition of the security and the withdrawal of the foreign troops from Afghanistan means the Afghan forces must be strengthened," Karzai said, embracing Obama’s plan to remove 33,000 U.S. troops from Afghanistan by the end of the year.  Karzai also said he considers the withdrawals as “a good measure.”

But Karzai’s previous accusations did not go unnoticed at the White House. 

According to White House Deputy National Security Adviser Denis McDonough, President Obama spoke with President Karzai about his critical comments yesterday.

"President Karzai suggested that perhaps he was misquoted,” McDonough said today on MSNBC’s "Andrea Mitchell Reports." McDonough also noted that Karzai’s remarks today were “a much more positive expression of appreciation to our troops and their families” and “more in line with the kind of sacrifice our troops have made.”

The Taliban also responded to the withdrawal announcement, promising to increase violence against all foreign soldiers as long as troops remain in Afghanistan. But McDonough insists that U.S. forces will continue to keep the heat on the Taliban in order to further demolish its influence in the region.

“Even at the end of this drawdown, Andrea, you’re still talking about 68,000 of the world’s finest fighting force maintaining that pressure on the Taliban,” McDonough said. “So, we don’t think they’re going to wait this out. And the longer they wait out, the more Afghan national security forces we can train and then it’ll be the Afghan’s fight to take to them.”

Though he calls President Obama's plan to withdraw the 30,000 U.S. "surge" troops from Afghanistan by the summer of 2012 "substantial" and "positive," the chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee said the withdrawal of the remaining troops to stay through 2014 is too slow.

"I think I will be arguing that it ... should be faster after the summer of 2012," Democratic Sen. Carl Levin told Andrea Mitchell on MSNBC's "Andrea Mitchell Reports," citing the "positive" conditions on the ground.

The Michigan senator recently called on the president to bring home 15,000 troops fighting in Afghanistan by the end of the year.

The Afghan army has grown but has also become stronger because "there's been a lot more partnering and training of the Afghan army with us and with other coalition forces," he said.

He also stated that "the Taliban's worst nightmare" is a faster drawdown, because the terror group could no longer use foreign involvement in Afghanistan as a "propaganda tool for recruiting."

But Levin realizes there is still a long way to go, and recent comments by Afghan President Hamid Karzai -- including his statement that NATO-led coalition forces are in Afghanistan "for their own purposes, for their own goals, and they’re using our soil for that" -- cause setbacks.

Levin told Mitchell "those comments were highly distrurbing, and when I go to Afghanistan in the next couple weeks, I will do what the president did and that's to tell President Karzai directly that those kind of comments play right into the hands of the Taliban -- which is the common enemy."

Former top aides to Mitt Romney have established a "Super PAC" -- Restore Our Future PAC -- to compete against one recently formed by President Obama's allies, the Bill Burton-led Priorities USA Action. Burton previously served as Obama's deputy press secretary.

Organizer Charles Spies, who served as Romney's chief financial officer and counsel in 2008, tells First Read that Restore Our Future is an FEC-registered "Super PAC," which means that all donors are disclosed -- as opposed to a 501(c)(4) group, where donors can remain anonymous. Both types of groups can spend and raise unlimited amounts of money.

(Burton has two groups: Priorities USA Action, which has to disclose donors, and Priorities USA, which doesn't have to. Similarly, the Karl Rove-led American Crossroads has to disclose donors, but Crossroads GPS doesn't have to.)

As the Washington Post reported, Restore Our Future is set up to help Romney combat Priorities USA Action, but could also be used against Republican primary opponents.