A Capitol Hill source says the Aug. 2nd drop-dead debt-ceiling date is not likely as hard a date as Treasury is leading on.

It could -- and very well may, in fact -- be pushed back to mid-August.

Aug. 2 is probably Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner's "minimum" date, the source said.

Neither side wants that to happen, but neither is any closer to a deal than when the week began.

The government could probably even go to October, the source said, but only by doing undesirable things, like selling gold, for example.

While Rep. Michele Bachmann has forcefully denounced the Medicaid program for swelling the "welfare rolls," the mental health clinic run by her husband has been collecting annual Medicaid payments totaling over $137,000 for the treatment of patients since 2005, according to new figures obtained by NBC News. 

The previously unreported payments are on top of the $24,000 in federal and state funds that Bachmann & Associates, the clinic founded by Marcus Bachmann, a clinical therapist, received in recent years under a state grant to train its employees, state records show. The figures were provided to NBC News in response to a Freedom of Information request. 

The clinic, based in Lake Elmo, Minn., describes itself on its website as offering "quality Christian counseling" for a large number of mental health problems ranging from "anger management" to addictions and eating disorders.

The $161,000 in payments from the Minnesota Department of Human Services to her husband's clinic appear to contradict some of Michelle Bachmann's public accounts this week when she was first asked about the extent to which her family has benefited from government aid. Contacted this afternoon, Alice Stewart, a spokeswoman for Bachmann, said the congresswoman was doing campaign events and was not immediately available for comment.

Questions about the Bachmann family's receipt of government funds arose this week after a Los Angeles Times story reported that a family farm in which Michelle Bachmann is a partner had received nearly $260,000 in federal farm subsidies.

When asked by anchor Chris Wallace on "Fox News Sunday" about the story's assertion that her husband's counseling clinic had also gotten federal and state funds, Bachmann replied that it was "one-time training money that came from the federal government. And it certainly didn't help our clinic."

At another point, she said, "My husband and I did not get the money," adding that it was "mental health training money that went to the employees."

Read more reporting by Michael Isikoff in 'The Isikoff Files'

But state records show that Bachmann & Associates has been collecting payments under the Minnesota's Medicaid program every year for the past six years. Karen Smigielski, a spokeswoman for the state Department of Human Services, said the state's Medicaid program is funded "about 50-50" with federal and state monies. The funds to Bachmann & Associates are for the treatment of low-income mentally ill patients and are based on a "fee for service" basis, meaning the clinic was reimbursed by Medicaid for the services it provided.

Smigielski added that these were not the only government funds that Bachmann & Associates has received. The clinic also participates in managed-care plans that are reimbursed under a separate state-funded Minnesota Health Care program. But the state does not have any records of payment information to the individual clinics that participate. (During her Fox News appearance, Bachmann was not asked about Medicaid payments, and she made no mention of them.)

Another state official, Patrice Vick, communications manager for the Human Services Department, said she was puzzled by Michelle Bachmann's assertion on the broadcast that the funds under the state grant went to employees. While the grant was to train employees to help them treat chemical dependency, the money did not go directly to those being trained, she said. "It went to the clinic," Vick said. 

"The contract was with the clinic," Vick added later. But she  had no immediate information about whether the clinic passed it along directly to the employes being trained or used it to cover its costs of training.  

The issue of her receipt of government aid has gotten attention because Bachmann, a Tea Party favorite, has been a fierce critic of federal spending programs and has called for drastic cutbacks. This has especially been the case on health care, including the expansions of Medicaid called for under the new health care law.

When Minnesota Gov. Mark Dayton signed an executive order earlier this year expanding the state's Medicaid program for more than 95,000 state residents, Bachmann was joined state Republican lawmakers in denouncing the move.

"Right now, Governor Dayton is wanting to commit Minnesota taxpayers to add even more welfare recipients on the welfare rolls at a very great cost," Bachmann said at a news conference in St. Paul in January.

"She's giving hypocrisy a bad name," said Ron Pollock, executive director of Families USA, a consumer health care advocacy group, when asked about the Medicaid payments to Bachmann & Associates. "It's clear when it feathers her nest she's happy for Medicaid expenditures. But people that really need it — folks with disabilities and seniors — she's turning their backs on them."

BETTENSDORF, Iowa -- Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad (R) said that while he understands Mitt Romney’s strategy of largely avoiding Iowa, it wouldn’t help him retain his lead throughout the rest of the primary season.

While waiting for President Obama to arrive at the Alcoa plant in Iowa, Branstad told reporters, “I understand his strategy," adding that he's had assurances from some of Romney's "key people" that he will participate in the Iowa debates and caucuses.

But, he added, "I think he jeopardizes his frontrunner status if he does poorly in Iowa."

Branstad also weighed in on the debt-ceiling debate going on in Washington. He expressed mixed feelings about changes to the corporate tax code floated by Democrats. He praised the idea of lowering federal corporate income-tax rates, saying he was working to do the same thing with commercial and industrial property taxes in his state.

But Branstad was critical of the president when it came to eliminating what Democrats call an accounting loophole that is used in many industries -- the “last out, first in,” or LIFO, provision. It’s an accounting method in which businesses take inventory based on products’ earliest (usually also their lowest) value rather than their actual or current cost.

Using the Alcoa plant as an example of companies that would be hurt, Branstad said, “That would be a step in the wrong direction. It would be an impediment for investments in companies like this in creating jobs because if you can be able to write that equipment off earlier, it’s an advantage to making that investment.”

The Senate Foreign Relations Committee voted, 14-5, to approve a resolution that would authorize United States participation in the NATO-led mission in Libya.

The resolution was offered by Chairman John Kerry (D-MA), and Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), which authorized continued participation of the U.S. military, but banned troops on the ground. It authorized the mission for up to one year after the date of enactment, unless NATO ends it sooner.

This now goes to the Senate floor, where the outcome is uncertain. Democratic aides say it is unlikely the Kerry-McCain resolution will be voted on by the full Senate this week. The Senate is in recess next week -- so any action would come the week of July 11.

Here’s the breakdown of the vote:

YEAS: Kerry, Boxer, Menendez, Cardin, Casey, Webb, Shaheen, Coons, Durbin, Udall, Rubio, Inhofe, Isakson, Barrasso

NAYS: Lugar, Corker, Risch, Demint, Lee

BETTENSDORF, Iowa -- President Obama visited the Alcoa aluminum plant here in a trip meant both to highlight his administration's new manufacturing initiatives and check in with a key 2012 battleground state.

After touring some of the plant's machinery and products, Obama's began his remarks by noting the flurry of activity in the first caucus state among Republican candidates as they jockey for support and donors.

"I know you've been seeing a lot of politicians around lately. Something tells me that you may see a few more before February is over," Obama told the crowd, reminding them that he and voters in the state "go back a long way."

"We've got some history together, and together were going to make some more history for years to come."

Iowa is a swing state. Obama won it with 54 percent in 2008, but former President George W. Bush won it four years – by less than a percentage point over Sen. John Kerry – and Al Gore won it in 2000.

The president used the appearance at a manufacturing plant to tout his recent pro-manufacturing initiatives, including a program meant to match community college training with local businesses' job needs, and a partnership between universities, corporations and the federal government to share research and development.

His speech sounded more like a stump speech, however. He pledged to "make America the best place for middle class jobs," and, taking a swipe at slow-moving talks over the debt ceiling, contrasted the fast pace of the Alcoa plant to the inertia in the nation's capitol.

"Instead of having the kind of squabbling we see in Washington all the time,” Obama said, “we have to work together the way workers, engineers, the business side of Alcoa thinks together.”

Obama's speech prompted a response from Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R), who has been trying to gain a foothold in Iowa for arguably the longest out of any other Republican presidential hopefuls.

"Speeches like the one President Obama gave today will not create a single job,” Pawlenty said. “Leadership that is heavy on rhetoric and light on results does not grow our economy. We need a President who will not only talk about making tough choices, but actually has a record of results."

Republicans dug in their heels on the debt ceiling today, once again dismissing Democrats' attempts at raising revenue as tax increases.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), who met with President Obama yesterday and called it a "useful" meeting, said at a Senate stakeout he was "perplexed" by why the president "thinks tax increases ... would be a good idea in this economy."

Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ) added, once again, "We will not agree to raise taxes."

Kyl directly went after some of the specifics that Democrats have floated, like an inventory accounting provision called "Last In, First Out," or LIFO, saying they would all affect "small businesses."

He also claimed Democrats want to raise gas taxes, which he called "antithetical" to the release of some oil from the strategic oil reserve.

"It's bad for economic growth," he said, echoing McConnell. He added, the "last thing we want to do is saddle" businesses with "more taxes."

Democrats argue they do not want to raise taxes, but get rid of some tax deductions for the rich, close tax loopholes like for corporate jets, and cut some subsidies and Defense spending.

Suffice it to say, Democrats and Republicans remain at an impasse on the talks. They are about $1 trillion away from the $2 trillion to $2.5 trillion figure they want to get to in order to cover the government through the 2012 elections.

Since the talks led by Vice President Biden broke down last week, the two parties have engaged in a public-relations battle with familiar talking points -- Republicans argue that Democrats want to raise taxes on small businesses; Democrats argue that the GOP is simply looking out for the rich.

McConnell spokesman Don Stewart dismissed the issue of corporate jets, in particular, noting that will not close the gap.

"It's hundreds of billions in tax hikes," he said emphatically, repeating it over and over for the growing crowd of reporters in the hallways here. "You're not writing this down," he said lightheartedly imploring one reporter. "Is anyone Twittering this?"

Asked if he'd call it an "impasse," Stewart responded, "We'd call it, 'They insist on tax hikes. And that can't pass Congress.'"

President Obama is scheduled to meet tomorrow with Senate Democratic leaders at the White House. There is no meeting with McConnell or other Republicans slated yet.

Both Democratic and Republican leadership aides dismissed a rumor that debt ceiling deadline would be extended beyond Aug. 2. That's still the working date leadership of both parties is working with.

In advance of Thursday's second-quarter fundraising deadline, Obama 2012 campaign manager Jim Messina yesterday sent this message to the millions on President Obama's email list:

Watch the President's video, and then donate $5 or more to be automatically entered for the chance to have dinner with him.

In the video, the president announces that Joe Biden will join him at the dinner. "I’ve got a pretty big announcement about that contest the campaign is running where you can join me for dinner. We’re setting another place at the table for Joe Biden."

The potential trouble: The Web video was shot from the White House, and as ReaClearPolitics reports, it's against the law -- for the president or any federal government employee -- to solicit funds from "any room or building occupied in the discharge of official duties."

It shall be unlawful for an individual who is an officer of employee of the Federal Government, including the President, Vice President, and Members of Congress, to solicit or receive a donation of money or other thing of value in connection with a Federal, State or local election, while in any room or building occupied in the discharge of official duties by an officer or employee of the United States, from any person.

The White House makes three arguments defending the Web video, which it says was shot by the Democratic National Committee. One, it says it's NOT a fundraising solicitation. "This is not a fundraising solicitation in any way shape or form," an official tells First Read. "We don't solicit funds from the White House."

When pressed that the email from Messina asks for a donation of $5 or more, the official responds, "But you don't have to give to win. The raffle is a raffle. If you give, you're entered, but you can enter without giving."

Two, the White House maintains that raising money from the White House isn't illegal -- what is illegal is raising it from particular rooms where business is conducted. "We are allowed to actually fundraise from certain rooms, but this administration has chosen not to," the official adds.

And three, the White House argues that previous presidents -- including George W. Bush and Ronald Reagan -- have used certain White House rooms as a backdrop for fundraising pitches.

Mary Boyle, the vice president for communications at the good-government group Common Cause, contends that the Web video ISN'T analogous to raising money from the Lincoln Bedroom. "It's encouraging small-dollar contributions, something we think is important."

Boyle's bigger beef is with Obama's March meeting with big donors in the White House's Blue Room. "It was disappointing to see... It has the appearance that these are donors who are getting special treatment, because they have a lot of money."

"It all goes back to our broken campaign system," Boyle adds. "This is what you've got to do to raise money."

In a speech today to the Council on Foreign Relations in New York City, Republican presidential candidate Tim Pawlenty took a hawkish view on foreign policy, drawing contrasts with President Obama and some of his GOP rivals.

His primary target was Obama, whom he called "timid, slow, and too often without a clear understanding of our interests."

The former Minnesota governor also knocked the president on the subject of Israel. "It breaks my heart that President Obama treats Israel, our great friend, as a problem rather than as an ally,” Pawlenty said.

Both in his prepared remarks -- read on teleprompter -- and in the Q&A following,  Pawlenty tried to separate himself from fellow Republicans. "Parts of the Republican Party now seem to be trying to out-bid the Democrats in appealing to isolationist sentiments. This is no time for uncertain leadership in either party. The stakes are simply too high, and the opportunity is simply too great."

Pawlenty gave his speech at a time when GOP foreign-policy views seem to be splitting. While not mentioning any of his rivals by name, Pawlenty took a swipe at those have been hesitant about continuing the U.S. military role in Afghanistan. "What is wrong is for the Republican Party to shrink from the challenges of American leadership in the world," he said. "History repeatedly warns us that in the long run, weakness in foreign policy costs us and our children much more than we'll save in a budget line item."

"America already has one political party devoted to decline, retrenchment, and withdrawal," he said. "It does not need a second one."

“It is not wrong for Republicans to debate the timing of our military drawdown in Afghanistan,” Pawlenty also stated, adding: "though my belief is that Gen. Petreaus’ voice ought to carry the most weight on that question."

It all depends on what your definition of “hostilities” is.

The Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing today on Libya -- pitting the administration’s lawyer who wrote the argument that the U.S. is not involved in “hostilities” in Libya against some senators -- would have been almost comedic if it weren’t so serious.

Harold Koh, the State Department lawyer defended the language, saying that the word "hostilities" in the War Powers Resolution is an "ambiguous term of art.”

That was after Sen. Jim Webb (D-VA) challenged the contention that the U.S. was not in a shooting war in Libya.

On not seeking congressional approval, Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN) asked Koh if he is glad that the administration went down the route of "basically sticking a stick in the eye" of Congress, as it relates to Libya by not seeking Congressional authorization under the War Powers Resolution.

Koh essentially apologized. "Senator,” he said, “that was not our intent, and if you felt that stick was stuck that was not our goal."

He said he would have come up earlier for briefings. "I take responsibility," he said.

Sen. Richard Lugar (R-IN), the committee’s ranking member, ripped into the Obama administration at the start of the hearing, saying the White House’s consultations with Congress have been "perfunctory, incomplete, and dismissive of reasonable requests." He said the Clinton administration on Bosnia worked much more closely -- in a “meaningful” way -- with Congress.

“There was no good reason why President Obama should have failed to seek Congressional authorization to go to war in Libya," Lugar said. "Presidents should not be able to avoid Constitutional responsibilities merely because engaging the people's representatives is inconvenient or uncertain.”

As for the “hostilities” argument, Lugar said, "The highly dubious arguments offered by the Obama Administration for not needing congressional approval break new ground in justifying a unilateral Presidential decision to use force."

Michele Bachmann made what appears to be another gaffe on history. When asked by ABC this morning to explain why she once said that the nation's Founding Fathers fought tirelessly to end slavery, Bachmann replied:

Well if you look at one of our Founding Fathers, John Quincy Adams, that’s absolutely true. He was a very young boy when he was with his father serving essentially as his father’s secretary. He tirelessly worked throughout his life to make sure that we did in fact one day eradicate slavery….

The problem: John Quincy Adams was just 8 years old when the Declaration of Independence was signed.

But instead of accusing ABC of asking a "gotcha" question -- or complaining of media bias -- Bachmann simply moved on to the next question. And that's what she also did after FOX News host Chris Wallace asked if she was a "flake" on Sunday.

"He did apologize, and I was happy to accept his apology," Bachmann told FOX's Hannity last night. "And we'll move on."

That's a clear contrast with Sarah Palin, who rarely moves on.

While we've complained about the constant comparisons between Bachmann and Palin -- though both are conservative women, they have different records and political identities -- Palin has been much more willing to engage her critics and the news media.

After all, Palin directly challenged David Letterman after the late-night comedian joked about one of her daughters; she was involved in a public spat with the father of her grandson; and she routinely pushes back against the media, like this Tweet from yesterday:

sigh* media making things up again MT @POLITICO2012: Sarah Palin reaching out to IOWA operatives http://politi.co/j9kQko by@maghabepolitico

When NBC's Matt Lauer asked Bachmann on "TODAY" this morning if she feared being "Palin-ized" -- i.e., attacked the same way Palin was -- Bachmann replied this way:

“That’s something that goes with the territory… There will be attacks to come.”

Democrats have packed the hearing room for the first-ever DREAM Act testimony. More than 200 people are in the room, including many students, who say they are undocumented and pushing for the passage of the bill. The bill would grant a path to citizenship for children brought to the United States illegally.

The bill has little chance of passing the Senate, but Democrats' theory might as well be if at first (or second or third or fourth) you fail, try, try again. It failed in December 2010, 55-41, unable to garner enough support to overcome a filibuster.

And that was when Democrats had a wider majority. Yet Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL), an Obama ally, has reintroduced it and has 34 sponsors. Democratic leadership aides acknowledge it has little chance at passage, but today's hearing was congressional Democrats' and the Obama administration's latest push to bring attention to the issue, one they believe benefits them politically.

A large number of those undocumented students are Hispanic, and 2010 Census data shows them to be the largest-growing group in the country. They are vital to President Obama's 2012 reelection chances.

Testimony today became snippy at times, particularly between Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) -- who opposes the bill -- and Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano, a former border-state governor.

At one point, Cornyn interrupted Napolitano, accusing her of not answering his question.

"I thought I was answering your question," she responded.

"Well, you're not," Cornyn shot back with a smile.

He moved on to Education Secretary Arne Duncan, who argued passing the DREAM Act would help decrease U.S. debt and deficits -- based on the Congressional Budget Office's analysis -- and that, "We need as much talent as we can get."

The administration's argument today on this issue is three-fold: economic, educational, and security.

“This is an investment, not an expense," Duncan contended.

Napolitano argued that Homeland Security would be better served, redirecting their resources on criminals, not students who are trying to learn.

"Over the past two years," Napolitano said in her opening statement, "we have focused enforcement resources on identifying criminal aliens and those who pose the greatest security threats to our communities. The DREAM Act supports these important priorities because only individuals of good moral character who have not committed any crime that would make them inadmissible to the United States would be eligible for DREAM Act relief."

John Wayne mix-ups aside, Rep. Michele Bachmann has long been criticized by opponents who say she uses questionably-sourced data and overly bombastic language in her claims.

This morning on The Daily Rundown, Politifact.com’s Bill Adair fact-checked several of Bachmann’s recent claims.

Check out the Truth-O-Meter results here:

From msnbc.com's Tom Curry:
On Tuesday the Ohio Senate might vote on a bill to require voters to show a form of photo identification when they go to the polls.

John McClelland, a spokesman for the state’s Republican Senate caucus, said it’s unclear whether the Senate will take action on the bill before its summer recess. The senators’ immediate focus is on the state's two-year operating budget, which must be approved by Thursday.

A voter ID bill potentially has big implications since voters in Ohio may decide who becomes president.

Since World War II, Ohio has gone with the winner of the presidential election every time but once. The state, which will have 18 electoral votes in next year’s election, was decisive in 2004 and 1976, helping give narrow victories to George W. Bush and Jimmy Carter.

Rep. Kathleen Clyde, D-Ohio, a former elections official, argued that the voter ID bill ought to be rejected. “Over the last 50 years, we have broken down barriers to voting,” she said, “We have eliminated literacy tests and poll taxes.  We have expanded early voting to accommodate voters that are working longer hours.  We should continue to make voting accessible.  This measure instead takes us backward.”

But Republicans argue the ID requirements are not burdensome and ask people to do no more than they’d have to do to rent a car, board a flight, or check into a motel.

Ohio Secretary of State Jon Husted, a Republican, signaled his opposition last week to any bill that would include “a rigid photo identification provision that does little to protect against fraud and excludes legally registered voters' ballots from counting.”

Battles are also underway over voting and voter registration in other states.

Last week the Pennsylvania state House passed a bill requiring voters to show photo identification; the state Senate hasn’t yet acted on it.

The Associated Press reported that New Hampshire Gov. John Lynch, a Democrat, vetoed a bill Monday that would have required voters to show photo identification before they cast a ballot.

Last week in North Carolina, Gov. Bev Perdue, a Democrat, vetoed a voter ID bill.

Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and North Carolina are potential battlegrounds in the 2012 presidential contest.

And in a related development, last week Maine Gov. Paul LePage, a Republican, signed the bill into law a bill which ends the state’s election-day registration procedure.

According to Ballot Access News, Maine had election-day registration since 1973 and had been one of eight states with that policy.

Proponents of Election Day voter registration will try to get enough signatures to put the issue on the ballot for a referendum. “I fully expect Maine supporters of same-day registration to put a referendum on the ballot and I predict the voters will then vote to keep same-day registration,” said Richard Winger, editor of Ballot Access News.

The trend toward requiring voters to show identification reflects the Republicans’ extraordinary success in the 2010 election. Republicans won control of legislatures in several states, including New Hampshire, Maine, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, and won governors’ races in 11 states which had had Democratic governors -- including Ohio, Pennsylvania, Maine and Wisconsin, where last month Gov. Scott Walker signed a voter ID bill into law.

According to the National Conference of State Legislatures, there are seven strict photo ID states where voters must show a photo ID in order to vote. Voters unable to show photo ID on Election Day are permitted to cast a provisional ballot, but the voter must return to election officials within a fixed number of days after Election Day to provide the photo ID. 

NCSL said that at the beginning of the year, only two states, Georgia and Indiana, had strict photo ID laws. 

Two more, Kansas and Wisconsin, passed new strict photo ID laws this year, with a few more poised to join that group. Tennessee's new photo ID requirement takes effect next January.

Iowa still matters… Obama delivers speech on manufacturing from Bettendorf, IA at 1:05 pm ET… Bachmann leaves Iowa and heads to New Hampshire and South Carolina… Palin appears at movie premiere in Pella, IA tonight… The end of Palin-palooza?... Do Romney, Bachmann, and Perry all have problems with conservative elites?... Is Pawlenty still a top-tier candidate?... T-Paw delivers a foreign-policy speech at the Council on Foreign Relations at 9:30 am ET… And debt and Libya debates continue on Capitol Hill.

*** Iowa matters: So who, exactly, is still saying that Iowa doesn't matter? After Michele Bachmann's formal announcement yesterday in the state (in Waterloo), Sarah Palin tonight attends the premiere of that pro-Palin documentary, "The Undefeated" (in Pella). And the president of the United States also is in Iowa today, delivering a 1:05 pm ET speech on manufacturing (in Bettendorf). Memo to the Mitt Romneys and Jon Huntsmans who aren’t making Iowa a priority right now: Obama is in the Hawkeye State today because it’s a swing state. And by not aggressively playing in Iowa, are they downplaying their Iowa chances in the general? Consider: It’s very difficult THIS CYCLE to imagine how a Republican nominee gets to 270 electoral votes without winning two of the three states of Iowa, Ohio, and Wisconsin. The road to the White House for a Republican goes through the Midwest -- or it doesn't happen.

*** Bachmann heads to New Hampshire and South Carolina: Speaking of Bachmann, she campaigns today in New Hampshire before heading to South Carolina. On “TODAY” this morning, she declared she’s running a 50-state campaign “because I intend to be the nominee.” She added, “We are the candidate that’s going places.” When NBC’s Matt Lauer asked her how she’d lower the unemployment rate, Bachmann answered this way: repeal the health-care law, lower the corporate tax rate, and cut back on spending. And when Lauer asked her if she feared being “Palin-ized” -- a term a Tea Party leader told NBC’s Andrea Mitchell yesterday -- Bachmann replied, “That’s something that goes with the territory… There will be attacks to come.”

*** The end of Palin-palooza? You might not have noticed, but Saturday night's release of the Des Moines Register poll may very well have ended Palin-palooza, assuming Palin doesn't enter the presidential race. Saturday morning, the news came out that she would attend tonight’s movie debut, which produced speculation that Palin might step on Bachmann’s launch -- just like she stepped on Mitt Romney’s launch earlier this month in New Hampshire. But a funny thing happened later that night after the release of the poll, which showed Bachmann tied for the lead in Iowa: Palin was barely in conversation on Sunday and Monday. And guess what: Bachmann stepped on Palin. Of course, Palin could very well dip her toes back in the presidential waters tonight. And she could fire up another bus tour. But unless she gets into the race, Palin-palooza will soon be coming to an end.

*** Problems with the elite: It’s worth noting that the top-two GOP candidates in that Des Moines Register poll (Romney and Bachmann) right now are probably the top-two overall Republican candidates. And here’s something to chew on: Both have conservative elite problems. Romney’s are well chronicled -- his health-care law, the enemies he made in ’08, mistrust among elite social conservatives. As for Bachmann, remember that her House colleagues rejected her bid for a leadership post earlier this year. This is going to get re-litigated at some point; if she can’t woo those who know her best… And if Rick Perry gets into the presidential contest, he’d also have conservative elite problems, given that the Bush crowd isn’t a fan. This is an interesting phenomenon, one which Democrats (with either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama) didn’t have in ’08.

*** Is Pawlenty a top-tier candidate? At 9:30 am ET at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York City, Tim Pawlenty delivers a foreign-policy speech, in which he takes aim at some recent dovish-sounding rhetoric from fellow GOP presidential hopefuls. “What is wrong,” he’s expected to say, according to excerpts, “is for the Republican Party to shrink from the challenges of American leadership in the world. History repeatedly warns us that in the long run, weakness in foreign policy costs us and our children much more than we'll save in a budget line item.” With this speech -- and with his other activities -- Pawlenty is still acting like a top-tier candidate. But after a rough past couple of weeks, he’s going to have to prove (with his 2^nd quarter numbers, at the next debate, in future polls) that he actually belongs in the conversation as a top-tier candidate.

*** On the 2012 trail: Elsewhere today, Huntsman is in Utah and Texas… Santorum’s in Iowa… And Gingrich conducts radio interviews.

*** Debt debate continues on the Hill: The politics of the debt ceiling continue to top the agenda on the Hill. Democrats and Republicans are playing chicken on the debt ceiling and Medicare. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell wants to get Democrats to include Medicare cuts in a debt-ceiling deal -- in hopes of blunting the message that it's the GOP that wants to cut the program. Democrats, on the other hand, see it to their political advantage not to include entitlements and instead want new revenue to come from closing tax loopholes, cutting corporate subsidies, and cutting defense spending.

*** The unanswered questions: On the debt debate, we’re no longer at Square One (the Biden-Cantor talks took care of that), but it does seem as if Democrats and Republicans are looking for a Plan B. So call it "Square B." Indeed, there are still these questions: Who goes first -- the House or the Senate? Does McConnell play a bigger role than he did in the fight over the Continuing Resolution? (The thinking is that he will.) Will it be a two-year deal to get through the 2012 election? (It appears everyone prefers that.) And do Senate Democrats have the votes to pass it through the chamber even on a simple majority vote? (Remember that the vote won’t be easy for the Jon Testers, Claire McCaskills, and Ben Nelsons etc.)

*** Libya debate also continues on the Hill: The politics of Libya also will be on full display today -- in what’s expected to be a contentious Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing. The administration lawyer, Harold Koh (who wrote the argument that the U.S. isn't engaged in "hostilities") will testify. The hearing begins at 10:00 am ET. The committee will also vote on the Kerry-McCain resolution supporting U.S. action in Libya. But there are five amendments to consider from Ranking Republican Dick Lugar (IN) that would limit the president’s authority, including calling for no ground troops to be used. Per NBC’s Libby Leist, Lugar – the president’s one-time ally on foreign affairs – will lash out at Obama. He will take on the president for not seeking congressional authorization for the mission. He says the White House consultations with Congress have been "perfunctory, incomplete, and dismissive of reasonable requests."

Countdown to Iowa GOP straw poll: 46 days
Countdown to NV-2 special election: 77 days
Countdown to Election Day 2011: 133 days
Countdown to the Iowa caucuses: 223 days
* Note: When the IA caucuses take place depends on whether other states move up

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The Washington Post writes, “President Obama and top White House aides are waging a behind-the-scenes push to win over skeptical big-dollar donors — whose early money is needed to help fund a dramatic summertime expansion of his battleground-state machinery. Campaign officials are working to broaden Obama’s network of ‘bundlers,’ the well-connected rainmakers tasked with soliciting big checks from wealthy donors, while seeking to preserve the aura of a grass-roots movement by luring back the kind of small Internet donations that helped shatter fundraising records four years ago.”

The New York Times’ Andrew Ross Sorkin: “The conventional wisdom … is that Wall Street has turned its back on Mr. Obama out of frustration with his so-called antibusiness rhetoric and ‘fat cat’ comments about bankers. But Wall Street’s absence may be more about optics — the way things appear— than reality. Behind the scenes, it seems that many bankers are not running away from the president as quickly as some might suspect.”

Romney continues to bracket Obama’s trips outside the White House. The top story in the Des Moines Register: “As Obama heads to Iowa, Romney criticizes him on jobs.” (There’s where your presidential campaign stands in a nutshell.)

Nathan Gonzales writes in Roll Call: “With his trip to Davenport, Iowa, on Tuesday, President Barack Obama returns to a media market that he shunned in the 2008 presidential contest. Even though Iowa is traditionally a swing state, the Obama campaign refused to air television ads in the general election in the Quad Cities because of the exorbitant cost, according to a campaign source.”

“President Obama formally entered debt talks Monday with a pair of Oval Office meetings with Senate leaders, hoping that face-to-face talks could set the stage for detailed negotiations seeking more than $2 trillion in federal savings in exchange for continued Treasury borrowing to finance government operations,” the Washington Post says. “While no immediate breakthroughs were reported, the talks were meant to signal Obama’s increased personal involvement in the issue after the dissolution last week of a group led by Vice President Biden and congressional leadership deputies.”

“Let's make a deal – not,” the New York Post writes. “President Obama did not make much of a splash yesterday when he finally dived headfirst into stalled negotiations to cut federal spending and raise the debt limit.”

“First lady Michelle Obama will visit Vermont for a series of events after she stops in Boston on Thursday for a fund-raiser at the Chestnut Hill home of Democratic activists Elaine and Gerald Schuster,” the Boston Globe writes.

“A federal judge yesterday temporarily blocked parts of Georgia’s strict new law targeting illegal immigration from taking effect, including a provision that authorizes police to check the immigration status of suspects without proper identification and to detain illegal immigrants,” AP writes.

BACHMANN: “Republican Michele Bachmann officially launched her White House bid yesterday, casting herself as hard-charging conservative capable of carrying the party into the 2012 election over a crowded field of GOP rivals,” the Boston Globe writes.

The New York Times’ Zeleny: “As she returned to her childhood home in Waterloo, where she lived until the age of 12, Mrs. Bachmann asked voters to ‘make a bold choice’ as they weigh the Republican contenders. She presented herself as a forceful conservative, unafraid to confront the party establishment and unwilling to compromise on its principles in her quest to win the nomination to challenge President Obama.”

She gets two more Pinocchios from the Washington Post’s Fact Checker: “Bachmann’s announcement speech had relatively minor transgressions, factwise, but she did worse in her pre-announcement interviews. We are pleased to see she has modified her language on the 800,000 jobs — though this stale talking point should be dropped altogether — but she erred badly on her assertion about the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. She needs to figure out how to eliminate the use of hyperbole — such as “massive” or “all” — from her vocabulary.”

Politico looks at Bachmann's thin legislative resume: “Bachmann has never had a bill or resolution she’s sponsored signed into law, and she’s never wielded a committee gavel, either at the full or subcommittee level. Bachmann’s amendments and bills have rarely been considered by any committee, even with the House under GOP control. In a chamber that rewards substantive policy work and insider maneuvering, Bachmann has shunned the inside game, choosing to be more of a bomb thrower than a legislator.”

"The president of the United States is threatened by my candidacy," Bachmann said on FOX’s Hannity last night, per NBC’s Matt Loffman. "He fears me. He sees me as a serious, substantive competitor. I think he sees that I have a very clear path to victory for the nomination, and I think that he wants to do whatever he can to diminish me because he thinks he'll have to see me in the debates."

On her misstatement that John Wayne was born in Waterloo: “Clearly he was born in Iowa. The point is, John Wayne represents patriotism and great American values. He wasn't afraid to stand up for the greatness of the United States of America. That's what we need. That's what the American people want. They want a president that's going to stand up for our allies and stand against our enemies. They want someone who's going to fight for America."

Bachmann to CBN’s David Brody on Mitt Romney: “Well, I think particularly now, Governor Romney has stated that he is pro-life, I take him at his word but, he’s had some issues with that in his past, where he has taken various positions. This was a wonderful opportunity to sign the [Susan B. Anthony List’s] pledge and demonstrate that he’s pro-life. He chose not to. I think that’s troubling and I think that he should have signed the pledge.”

CAIN: “Herman Cain's state director and lone New Hampshire staffer has resigned, leaving the campaign without a New Hampshire presence at least for the time being, the Granite Status has learned,” the New Hampshire Union-Leader reports.

On FOX last night, Cain said he wasn't offended by Jon Stewart's recent segment on “The Daily Show about Cain's proposal of three-page pieces of legislation. "I'm not playing the race card," he said, per NBC’s Loffman. "Some people in the media are playing the race card. I didn't complain."

More: "It's not about color, I keep saying that. It's about content of ideas and it is about character."

PAUL: Catch this exchange on Iowa Radio, per The Hill: Host Jan Mickelson asked Paul: "Are we going to experience -- are you predicting in essence -- if bankruptcy is the cure for Greece, is it also the cure for the United States?" Paul’s response: "Absolutely.”

PAWLENTY: Ahead of his foreign-policy speech today, he gets the neo-con blessing, per The Hill: “I think Pawlenty and his statements is the heir to the McCain-Reagan active, internationalist foreign policy that has characterized Republicans for a couple generations,” said Randy Scheunemann, “a former adviser to McCain’s 2008 presidential campaign who’s advised former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R) in the past few years.”

ROMNEY: He said yesterday in New Hampshire of Obama, per the Boston Globe: “He did not cause this recession, but he made it worse. It will be essential to have a person who understands how the economy works, understands what it takes to create and grow jobs, in the White House.”

(Memo to Romney: The recession technically ended a while ago; the Dow is considerably higher than it was in ’09; corporate profits are up; and the unemployment rate has dropped nearly a full point since Nov. 2010.)

The Washington Examiner’s Byron York: “Ever since Mitt Romney's unsuccessful run for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination, there's been much discussion of whether GOP voters would accept a Mormon candidate. Would evangelical conservatives, in particular, look past the former Massachusetts governor's faith to vote for him? The underlying assumption was that the more conservative the views, the more intolerant the voter. Now, it turns out a better question might be whether Democratic voters would accept a Mormon candidate.”

Politico’s Rogers said Obama was greeted by “a double-barrel blast” by McConnell, who peremptorily rejected any deal that would include the added revenues Obama wants together with spending cuts… The administration insists that a “significant” agreement was still possible, but it also adopted a more combative tone Monday in response to the stalemate.”

White House officials told the New York Times: “Mr. McConnell, who has raised the prospect of a short-term increase in the debt limit if the two sides cannot agree, appeared to be banking on Democratic reluctance to take two votes on a debt limit increase before the 2012 elections to force them to agree to savings from cuts in Medicare and Medicaid without new revenue.”

The meeting lasted more than an hour, but McConnell’s team is mum on the content of it. An aide told First Read that “one way or another it will” get done by Aug. 2^nd.

The Washington Post reports the two sides have agreed on at least $1.3 trillion, though Republicans are pushing for closer to $1.7  trillion. “How the negotiators reach the $2 trillion line has set off an ideological battle across the Capitol,” the Post writes.

“When dozens of raucous conservative activists Monday stormed the National Republican Senatorial Committee and demanded the GOP campaign arm stay out of the Utah Senate race, it looked like the tea party mob was at it again,” Roll Call writes. “But underneath the chanting and handmade signs was a carefully orchestrated educational event, an effort by FreedomWorks to incorporate technical dominance and political savvy into a grass-roots movement built on passion and theatrics.”

CALIFORNIA: “Rep. Lynn Woolsey announced Monday that she will not run for an 11th term in 2012, saying she will turn 75 before the next election and that the time has come to move on,” Roll Call writes.

MASSACHUSETTS: Democrats are trying to push gay marriage as an issue against Sen. Scott Brown (R) who is up for reelection next year. “Brown’s camp noted that he voted last year to repeal the military’s ‘Don’t ask, don’t tell’ policy on gays serving openly in the military,” the Boston Globe writes, adding comment from Brown’s spokesman Colin Reed:  “We’ve already had the debate on gay marriage in Massachusetts. It’s time to move on. Senator Brown’s focus is on jobs.”

SOUTH CAROLINA: “South Carolina's governor will veto proposals to use taxpayer money to run the first-in-the-South Republican presidential primary in February, officials said Monday,” AP reports. “Two officials familiar with Republican Gov. Nikki Haley's decision spoke on condition of not being identified, saying they did not want to pre-empt her veto announcements expected Tuesday.”

What’s the difference between the actor who will forever embody the American ideal of craggy cowboy masculinity and the serial killer who forever made clowns way way creepier than they’d ever been before?

One answer turns out to be four letters and about 150 miles – not quite enough to keep Rep. Michele Bachmann from prompting a chorus of internet giggles for apparently mixing them up.

On the day of her presidential announcement,  Bachmann, an Iowa native, told FOX News that she and John Wayne share a hometown. “John Wayne was from Waterloo, Iowa,” she said. “That's the kind of spirit that I have, too."

Bachmann repeated that idea to NBC News in an interview. "I'm not pining for nostalgia back in the 50s and 60s, that isn't it," she told NBC's Kelly O'Donnell. "But that sensibility about how we were grounded here is so important. For instance, another American that was born in Waterloo was John Wayne. We were a very patriotic 'yay rah rah America' city and nation and I think that's what America's looking for again."

The problem: While actor John Wayne – the gravelly-voiced Western film star known for his characteristic walk and his conservative values– was in fact from Iowa (and, Bachmann’s campaign later pointed out, his parents briefly lived in Waterloo), he was born in Winterset, about 150 miles away.

The famous similarly-named guy who did make his home in Waterloo: John Wayne Gacy -- the serial killer known for dressing as “Pogo the Clown” who buried over two dozen of his young male victims in the crawlspace of his Illinois home.

Gacy, who was born in Chicago, lived in Waterloo in the late 1960s before serving time for sodomy at Anamosa State Penitentiary. He would later go on to commit more than 30 murders.

The mix-up – which, considering the Iowa roots of both men, isn’t as baffling as some Bachmann critics may make it out to be-- isn’t independently the kind of gaffe that makes voters suddenly change their minds. But it’s certain to become late-night comedy fodder for a candidate who has already been ridiculed for a more serious historical mangling of details about the beginning of the Revolutionary War.

Democrats say both sides have agreed to at least $1 trillion-plus in cuts over a 10-year period, but the goal is to get to between $2 trillion to $2.5 trillion in cuts and revenue to cover the government through 2012.

(The $1 trillion-plus figure, according to a leadership aide, would only last about seven months before the government hits the ceiling again. Republicans want cuts that equal the amount the debt limit is raised.)

So how do they make up the difference before the Aug. 2 deadline?

Republicans want more cuts. Democrats think it can be made up with a combination of cutting tax deductions for the wealthiest Americans, subsidies (like for ethanol, corporations and oil companies), tax “loopholes” (like for corporate jets and an inventory accounting provision called “Last In, First Out,” or LIFO), and defense cuts. Democrats are targeting up to $300 billion in Defense cuts, but don’t think they will get that much.

Democrats are setting up a populist pitch -- social services for the middle class and the poor versus breaks for corporations and the rich.

"Do we perpetuate a system that allows for subsidies in revenues for oil and gas, for example, or owners of corporate private jets, and then call for cuts in things like food safety or weather services?" White House Press Secretary Carney said at today's White House briefing, for example.

Democrats often talk about raising taxes on the richest, specifically on those making $1 million a year or more -- something that is popular in polls. But the aide said that’s not likely to be part of a final debt-ceiling deal, because that would mean undoing the tax-cut deal the president struck in December. (That extended cuts for two years, which would put the expiration of those at December 2012, right after the presidential election.)

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) will meet with President Obama in less than an hour and said in a floor speech today he will tell the president that tax increases have to be "off the table."

"I intend to ask the President what he's prepared to do, outside of raising taxes, about the massive deficits and debt that have accumulated on his watch,” he said, adding, "Move past the tax hikes and talk about what’s possible.”

He continued: "[Democrats] don't seem to understand that the voters didn't elect dozens of additional Republicans to the House of Representatives last November because they wanted their taxes raised. They sent them here to reverse policies that failed."

Speaking right before McConnell on the Senate floor this afternoon, Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) offered few details about his meeting with the president at the White House. He called it "productive." He then accused Republican leadership of worrying more about politics than the economy in the deficit talks. 

"I hope they'll join us to create jobs and set aside their desire to please the tea party and defeat President Obama," Reid said.

Democrats had been trying to make the case -- aimed at McConnell -- that those items (tax deductions, subsidies, and "loopholes") are not tax increases at all.

McConnell doesn’t seem to be buying it.

He also again called on the president to include cuts to entitlements, something that has proven to be politically unpopular for Republicans who backed Rep. Paul Ryan's (R-WI) controversial budget proposal that would partially privatize Medicare.

"Save our entitlements from bankruptcy," McConnell said.

Democrats think it's an issue that can help them take back the House and retain power in the Senate.

Those familiar with McConnell's thinking have said the senator has long believed that if entitlements were to be touched, both parties needed to do it together. Otherwise, the party that went first would suffer politically.

Democrats believe McConnell’s stance is purely political, that his intention is to draw Democrats into cutting Medicare to help blunt the advantage Democrats have currently on the issue. But Democrats, equally cognizant of the politics, don’t want to cede that advantage.

Highlighting the politics, the Senate's No. 2 Republican, Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ) – who walked out of the Vice President Biden-led debt-ceiling negotiations – also spoke on the floor in front of a sign that read: "The Obama Economic Record - He's Making it Worse" He responded to the White House proposals to raise new tax revenue through measures like ending tax breaks for oil companies.

"Leave it alone,” he said. “Just don’t touch it. … Don’t force us to raise taxes.”

The veteran pollster behind the Des Moines Register poll says Michele Bachmann’s Monday announcement could not have come at a better time.

"I don't know that you could orchestrate an announcement better than this" Ann Selzer, President of Iowa public opinion research firm Selzer & Company INC, told Andrea Mitchell on MSNBC’s "Andrea Mitchell Reports."

Bachmann’s announcement came just hours after the Des Moines Register poll of likely Iowa Republican caucus-goers revealed Bachmann, who received 22% in the poll is statistically tied with presumed presidential frontrunner Mitt Romney, who received 23%.

Selzer said the Minnesota congresswoman is "signaling that she's prepared to invest time in Iowa and [is] prepared to really cultivate a broader following than she gets just naturally."

But what about Romney?

"It's been clear to us in Iowa that Mitt Romney wasn't sure how he wanted to play this state at all... He's been here once this year, so he's not really signaling that he really wants to work the state," she said.

The poll also proved to be "demoralizing" to Tim Pawlenty’s campaign. The former Minnesota Governor came in sixth, with 6% of likely GOP caucus-goers.
 
But do not count him out, says Selzer.

"His favorability factor is really pretty good. People like him. There are very few who dislike him."

If at first you don't succeed, try try again: Former Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D) was convicted on 17 of 20 charges in his retrial.

A jury has convicted former Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich of nearly all the corruption charges against him, including trying to sell or trade President Barack Obama's old Senate seat.

Blagojevich had faced 20 charges, including the Senate seat allegation and that he schemed to shake down executives for campaign donations. He was convicted on all charges regarding the Senate seat.

The jurors delivered their verdicts Monday after deliberating nine days.

Blagojevich testified for seven days, denying wrongdoing.

Prosecutors said he lied and the proof was on FBI wiretaps. Those included a widely parodied clip in which Blagojevich calls the Senate opportunity "f------ golden."

[snip]

Jurors in his first trial deadlocked on all but one charge, convicting Blagojevich of lying to the FBI.

In her presidential announcement today from her hometown in Waterloo, IA, Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann (R) portrayed herself as the Tea Party's champion.

"It may have started small, but our voice is growing louder, our voice is growing stronger, and it’s made up of Americans from all walks of life like a three-legged stool," she said.  "It's made up of  peace-through-strength conservatives, and I am one of those. It is made up of fiscal conservatives, and I am one of those. It is made up of social  conservatives, and I am one of those."

"And it’s made up of the Tea Party movement, and I am one of those." 

Her rationale for her presidential bid: She can't wait until tomorrow. "I seek the presidency -- not for vanity, but because America is at crucial moment. And I believe [we] must make bold choice if we are to secure a promise for our future, because we simply cannot kick the can of problems down the road, because our problems, quite frankly, are today; our problems are not tomorrow."

And she used announcement to deliver an attack on President Obama's first two-and-half years in the White House.

"We can't afford four more years of failed leadership here and abroad," she said. "We can't afford four more years of millions of Americans who are out of work and who aren't making enough in wages to support a family."

She continued, "We can't afford four more years of a housing crisis where we continually watch the value of our home devalued in front of our eyes... And we can't afford four more years of a ... foreign policy, with a president who leads from behind and who doesn't stand up for friends like Israel."

"We cannot afford four more years of Barack Obama," she said to applause.

Obama 2012 campaign spokesman Ben LaBolt offered this statement in response to Bachmann's announcement:

Congresswoman Bachmann talks about reclaiming the American Dream but her policies would erode the path to prosperity for middle class families.  She voted for a budget plan that would extend tax cuts for the richest Americans on the backs of seniors and the middle class while ending Medicare as we know it. Congresswoman Bachmann introduced legislation to repeal Wall Street oversight - risking a repeat of the financial crisis -- and while she voted to preserve subsidies for oil and gas companies she opposes making the investments necessary to enhance America's competitiveness and create the jobs of the future.

This weekend’s much-anticipated Des Moines Register poll gave a positive jolt to Rep. Michele Bachmann, a negative one to Tim Pawlenty, and cause for some cautious optimism to Mitt Romney. But with 224 days until the Iowa caucuses, candidates can take caution or comfort in looking back at how the competition was shaping up this time before the last round of nominating contests.

Romney, now the frontrunner for the 2012 race with 23 percent support in the Register poll, was at 30 percent in the same poll in May 2007. At the time, he was running well ahead of the eventual GOP nominee, Sen. John McCain, who garnered the support of 18 percent of that poll’s respondents.

But, as First Read pointed out this morning, the well-known Romney may be bumping up against a ceiling in the Hawkeye State. His unfavorable rating now is 38 percent, with 52 percent giving him a favorable rating. Compare that to his sky-high 72-to-13 percent net positive four years ago -- numbers that are closer to where native Iowan Michele Bachmann’s are now.

Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, who clocked in at a disappointing six percent in the weekend poll, is taking comfort in the fact that the eventual winner of the 2008 GOP caucuses – former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee – sat at just four percent in the Des Moines Register survey in 2007. (It may sting a little bit, though, that he’s running slightly BEHIND where short-timer Gov. Tommy Thompson was – seven percent – this time four years ago.)

Handing out the final decisions of the current term, the Supreme Court issued two -- one of which is related to politics.

It invalidated, by a 5-4 vote, a 1998 Arizona law that gave a financial boost to publicly funded candidates if their privately funded opponents spent more money.

Under the law, candidates who declined to accept campaign contributions could participate in the public financing system, which gave them a lump-sum grant for the campaign. But if an opponent, who was not publicly funded outspent the amount of the state grant, the publicly funded candidate received more money from the state to bring the candidates into rough spending parity.

The system was challenged on First Amendment grounds by several privately funded candidates, who claimed that they reined in their spending to avoid triggering the matching funds for their publicly funded opponents. The law, they argued, acted as a restraint on their campaigns and thus violated their free-speech rights.