He may be politically toxic to his fellow congressional Democrats as well as the butt of endless all-too-easy-to-make puns on late-night comedy shows, but there’s one group of people who seem fairly ready to let Rep. Anthony Weiner keep his job for now.

His constituents.

Only 33 percent of Weiner’s constituents think that the embattled New York Democrat should resign, according to a new NY1-Marist poll of registered voters in the ninth New York congressional district.

Fifty-six percent of respondents said that Weiner should not step down amid the roiling scandal over his admission of inappropriate online relationships with women. An additional 12 percent were unsure.

But although only a third of Weiner’s polled constituents said that their congressman should throw in the towel, many are unsure if they will vote for him in the future. Weiner has long been expected to run for mayor of New York City.

Asked if they would support him again, 30 percent said they will definitely vote for him again, 31 percent said they would definitely not support him, and 38 percent were undecided.

Weiner was re-elected to a seventh term in the House in 2010 by a margin of over 20 points, although that race was closer than previous elections.  (There is a possibility that his existing congressional district could be eliminated in the redistricting process.)

The Pawlenty campaign just announced that former Georgia Gov. Sonny Perdue (R) -- who was serving as Newt Gingrich's national campaign co-chair -- will now be endorsing Pawlenty.

Pawlenty's campaign manager, Nick Ayers, was a former top aide to Perdue.

Said Perdue, in a statement released by the Pawlenty campaign:

Tim Pawlenty is a great man, he was a phenomenal governor, and he is the person I now believe stands the greatest chance of defeating President Obama. He is the only candidate who has laid out a real plan to grow the American economy, and his track record in Minnesota is proof he's the right man for the job.

Despite the recent spate of troubling economic news -- unemployment notched up to 9.1% in May -- White House Press Secretary Jay Carney, said he did not expect the president to retool his message, that recovery takes time.  

In his daily briefing, Carney said many analysts “still believe we’ll have steady economic growth during the second half of this year.”  Carney also reiterated the idea that the President has steered the country out of its most serious economic crisis since the Great Depression by creating two million jobs over the past 15 months.

When NBC’s Mike Viqueira asked Carney if the administration risked seeming “sanguine,” Carney quickly shot down the notion.

“We’re not remotely sanguine about the economy," he said. "We are still in a hole that we need to continue to dig out of caused by this recession."

Earlier Thursday, Bloomberg reported the Obama administration has been discussing a temporary cut in the payroll taxes that businesses pay on wages. Carney called the report “conflated” and reiterated that the payroll tax for employees was enacted less than six months ago. Carney also said there were a lot of ideas that are currently being “bandied about.” Obama has talked about his desire to make permanent a research and development tax credit and tax credits that would create more jobs.

This comes as Vice President Joe Biden and top lawmakers from both parties met for a sixth time to discuss ways to increase the country’s legal borrowing limit which expires on August 2^nd. Republicans are seeking spending cuts that would offset an increase in the $14.3 trillion debt limit, but Democrats have expressed opposition to the Republicans' plan to cut Medicare.

First Read just got off the phone with longtime Gingrich spokesman Rick Tyler, who was part of the exodus from the Gingrich campaign.

While Tyler said he wouldn't go into details, he said the departures were due to a difference of opinion about "the path to victory" for Gingrich.

"There is a path to victory," Tyler said. "But there was a dispute on what that path to victory was."

Tyler -- who sent the now-famous "literati"/"minions" statement about the critical press Gingrich was receiving -- had worked for Gingrich for nearly 12 years.

"It's been an unbelievable 12 years," he told First Read. "I have no regrets. I admire him deeply. I hope he does become president."

But he said that Gingrich needed a different path to victory. That was echoed by strategist Dave Carney, who also departed the Gingrich campaign. "The professional team came to the realization that the direction of the campaign they sought and Newt vision for campaign were incompatible."

Gingrich just released the following statement: "I am committed to running the substantive, solutions-oriented campaign I set out to run earlier this spring. The campaign begins anew Sunday in Los Angeles," when he addresses the Republican Jewish Coalition there.

The Associated Press is reporting that several top aides to presidential candidate Newt Gingrich have quit the 2012 hopeful's campaign.

From AP:

Newt Gingrich's campaign manager and numerous other key aides have resigned together, a strong blow to his hopes for the Republican presidential nomination.

Ginrgrich press spokesman Rick Tyler told The Associated Press that he's resigned along with campaign manager Rob Johnson, senior strategists and aides in key early primary states.

Gingrich’s campaign got off to a rocky start. Confusion resulted when he offered only a brief announcement of his new website during a heavily-publicized campaign appearance in March. News coverage of his formal announcement in May was largely overshadowed by his appearance on NBC’s Meet the Press, when he appeared to dismiss a GOP proposal to overhaul Medicare as “right-wing social engineering.”

He has battled questions about his personal life, most recently a POLITICO report revealing a high-dollar credit account with Tiffany’s luxury jewelry store. And he was ridiculed in the press for taking a lengthy vacation with his wife just a few weeks after he formally launched his campaign.

*** UPDATE *** NBC's Chuck Todd and Mark Murray report: NBC has confirmed the news that top aides to Gingrich -- including Dave Carney, who was heading up Gingrich's efforts in New Hampshire -- have resigned from the campaign.

Carney is a former key adviser to Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who is mulling a presidential bid. And Carney says in a statement to NBC: "The professional team came to the realization that the direction of the campaign they sought and Newt vision for campaign were incompatible."

In addition to Carney, Politico is reporting that other key aides have departed the Gingrich campaign as well. They include campaign manager Rob Johnson, spokesman Rick Tyler, and consultant Katon Dawson.

*** UPDATE 2 *** NBC's Domenico Montanaro reports: Longtime Gingrich ally and attorney, Randy Evans, tells First Read that, yes, senior aides have resigned today en masse from the Gingrich campaign, but he is still on board Gingrich's presidential run.

Among those who have quit today, the man in charge of Gingrich's campaign in Iowa, Craig Schoenfeld, Schoenfeld tells First Read.

"Bottom line was there was a difference in opinion on how to conduct the campaign, in Iowa, the early primary states, and nationally," Schoenfeld said. "Mr. Gingrich deserves to surround himself with those that share his vision on how to conduct his campaign. I remain a Newt Gingrich fan… I think he would be an incredible president. I wish him the best of success."

As reported earlier, others out: longtime Gingrich spokesman Rick Tyler, strategist Dave Carney, campaign manager Rob Johnson. Others have also reported consultant Katon Dawson.

Asked why this happened, Evans said, "Very similar to John McCain in July 2007." 

The implication being that McCain was counted out, but came back to win.

Donald Trump is offering his explanation for why he ducked the 2012 Republican presidential primary race: Republicans are "stupid" and - really - who gives up that much cash?

"I said 'you know what? It’s time to take the money,'" said Trump in a new 4-minute YouTube video posted Thursday. "I really hated what I was seeing from the Republicans."

"Ultimately I don’t want to battle against the Republicans’ stupidity … and at the same time tell NBC I no longer want a hit show," he said.

The real estate mogul also appeared to keep the door open to a third-party presidential bid if "the wrong" candidate seals the GOP nomination.

"I am watching very carefully. If the wrong person is nominated, you watch what happens with Donald Trump and what he does," Trump said. "Because we have to beat Obama. This country cannot last any longer with Obama as our president."

In the video, Trump alleges that he was being offered "all sorts of money" to keep his show "The Apprentice" on the air.

"By the way, even when you’re rich, it’s a lot of money," he said. "Who gives up a hit show? Nobody."

Trump ridiculed two House Republicans - Eric Cantor and Paul Ryan - by name, saying that Republicans who support Ryan’s plan to fundamentally change Medicare have an electoral "death wish" that sorely weakens the party going into the 2012 election.

And Trump lamented that Republicans handed Obama a decisive victory when they passed a "ridiculous" compromise tax bill during last year’s lame duck session of Congress. "He was resurrected, he became the Phoenix, he was like a new man." (That compromise took place, by the way, well before Trump’s presidential flirtation began in earnest. The president’s poll numbers did surge above 50 percent after the compromise bill passed but returned to a 48 percent approval rating the next month, per the NBC/WSJ poll.)

The current CIA Director and Obama's nominee to be the next Secretary of Defense told senators today that he has "every confidence" that the Iraqis will ask the U.S. to maintain a presence in Iraq beyond the December 2011 deadline for U.S. troop withdrawal.

Asked whether the U.S. is on track to draw down troops from Iraq at the end of the year, Leon Panetta told Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), "It's clear to me that Iraq is considering the possibility of making a request for some kind of presence to remain there."

Panetta said that he has "every confidence" that a request like that is "forthcoming at some point."

Speaking toward the end of his confirmation hearing before the Senate Armed Services Committee, Panetta added that the Iraqi prime minister and leadership would have to present the U.S. with what they need and on what timeline.

Mark and Domenico debate whether President Obama can generate the same kind of voter turnout he did four years ago in the upcoming 2012 election.

Edited by NBC's Jason Seher.

Five reasons to take Michele Bachmann seriously… 1) she’s running, 2) she’ll raise lots of money, 3) she’ll stand out at the debates, 4) she could be the only female in the field, and 5) she can fill the Tea Party void… What about Rick Perry?... Is Giuliani about to get in?... Romney gets tough welcome in Detroit… White House mulls business payroll tax cut… The Biden talks continue… Answering why Ensign and Vitter didn’t get the same political pressure to resign as Weiner is currently receiving… And with McKenna in the race for WA GOV, it’s now or never for the GOP to win a governor’s race in the state (in a presidential year).

*** Five reasons to take Bachmann seriously: In the next week, Minnesota Congresswoman Michelle Bachmann, thanks mostly to her decision to participate in next week's Republican primary debate, is going to be getting her first big moment in the national political spotlight. For the last two years, she's been a caricature -- a spoof on "Saturday Night Live," a political lightning rod, and an easy target for some folks to try and use her as a way to drive independents or moderates away from the GOP. But here are five reasons to take Michele Bachmann seriously in the race for the Republican nomination: One, there's clear evidence she's running (hiring Ed Rollins, participating at the debate). Two, she's going to able to raise money, lots of it (take a look at what she raised last cycle). Three, she will stand out at the debates. Four, she's going to be the only female in the field (if Palin doesn't run). And five, and most importantly, she has the ability to win over the sizeable number of Republicans who were cheering on Donald Trump (for a while) and who are listening to Herman Cain (right now). This segment of the GOP wants a candidate who will carry the Tea Party banner, who talks strongly about his/her religious faith, and who will take the fight to President Obama.

*** A female Huckabee who can raise money? In this respect, Bachmann has the POTENTIAL to be this cycle's female version of Mike Huckabee -- and she can do something Huck never could do: raise lots of money. An instant player in Iowa and South Carolina? Check. A key attraction at the debates? Check. Will take the fight to Obama, as well as Romney, Huntsman, and Pawlenty? Check. Of course, this doesn't mean she WILL catch fire come next year. But if we're thinking about candidates who could be the lone alternative still standing against Mitt Romney after Feb. 2012, Bachmann has to be on the list.

*** What about Perry? Another Republican who could be on that list: Texas Gov. Rick Perry. The Wall Street Journal: “[O]ver the past two weeks, political advisers and friends say, Mr. Perry has changed his tune on a possible presidential campaign. In private conversations, they say, the three-term governor said he worries that the current GOP contenders have yet to stir real excitement within the party and may struggle when facing President Barack Obama. ‘He thinks there is a void [in the current field of candidates], and that he might be uniquely positioned to fill that void,’ said one Perry confidant who talked to the governor last week.” Perry is making SOME moves, and don't forget the big prayer day he's organizing for later this summer. It's worth noting that two of his key campaign aides for the past are both with Newt Gingrich, and Gingrich has actually spent a lot of time courting Perry. If Perry gets in, how much does that hurt Gingrich?

*** Rudy, Rudy, Rudy: Yesterday, the Weekly Standard’s Bill Kristol reported, per “two reliable sources,” that Rudy Giuliani intends to run for president and that he might announce soon.  Privately, as we've reported here a few times these last few weeks, we’ve heard that Giuliani is thinking hard about a run. And in his mind, he’d like to do it; think redemption. But whether or not that means he actually runs is anyone’s guess. If he does make a bid, Giuliani realizes -- unlike in 2008 -- that he’d have to camp out in New Hampshire. Yet that would make the Granite State a crowded place, with Romney, Jon Huntsman, and even Ron Paul staking their candidacies on the state. By the way, many of the smarter money and strategic folks who did work for Rudy in 2008 are sitting on the sidelines waiting for somebody else to run: Chris Christie.

*** Romney’s tough welcome in Detroit: Meanwhile, Romney remains in Michigan, where he’s already met with voters in Livnoia and holds a roundtable discussion and tours a business later this morning in Detroit. The DNC greets Romney with a Web video entitled “Welcome to Detroit, Mitt Romney,” playing up Romney’s Nov. 2008 op-ed on the auto industry entitled “Let Detroit Go Bankrupt” (which was the paper’s headline, not Romney’s). The local headlines are rough for Romney. The Detroit Free Press: “Romney defends his stance on U.S. auto rescue as he courts Michigan voters.” The Detroit News: “Michigan politicians hack Romney over auto bailout stance.”

*** White House in “do anything” mode on the economy? As yet another national poll (CBS’s) finds President Obama’s approval rating returning below 50% --due to the recent spate of bad economic news -- the White House is looking for something, anything, to do. Here’s Bloomberg News: “President Barack Obama’s advisers have discussed seeking a temporary cut in the payroll taxes businesses pay on wages as they debate ways to spur hiring amid signs that the recovery is slowing, according to people familiar with the matter. The idea, which is in preliminary stages of discussion, is among several being talked about at the White House as the economy holds center stage for the administration and Congress.” Advisers remind us this is not a "new" idea, per se, and aren't ready to agree with the premise that there is ramped UP talk about this idea. But the president himself hinted earlier this week that there are SOME things (which are designed to get through a Republican House) that he's considering.

*** The Biden talks continue: At 12:30 pm ET, on Capitol Hill, Vice President Biden holds the latest round of deficit-reduction talks. The other participants: Sens. Daniel Inouye (D), Jon Kyl (R), and Max Baucus (D); Reps. Eric Cantor (R), James Clyburn (D), and Chris Van Hollen (D); and administration officials Tim Geithner, Jacob Lew, and Gene Sperling.

*** Answering why Ensign and Vitter didn’t get the same political pressure Weiner is receiving: Turning briefly to Weiner-gate, liberals and progressives have asked this question: Why is there a political drumbeat for embattled Democratic Congressman Anthony Weiner to resign when that didn’t exist for scandal-plagued Republicans like Sens. John Ensign and David Vitter? But there’s a simple reason for the difference. With Weiner, the entire Republican Party has leaned its shoulder into putting the Democratic Party in a box. RNC Chairman Reince Priebus has gone on “TODAY” to demand Weiner’s resignation, while a top aide to House Minority Leader Eric Cantor has tweeted the latest developments in the story. By contrast, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee issued press releases for a week when the Ensign news first broke. But after that, Democrats let go. You didn’t see then-DNC Tim Kaine (who as a Senate candidate has now called for Weiner’s resignation) go on “TODAY” to demand Ensign’s ouster.  And you didn't see other Democrats do the same thing with Vitter. Republicans are much more disciplined at the drumbeat than Democrats have proven to be. Of course, there may be ONE big reason Democrats tread differently on sex scandals: Bill Clinton.

*** Now or never for the WA GOP: According to our research, Washington happens to be the state that’s gone the longest without having a Republican win a gubernatorial race there (since 1980), while South Dakota has gone the longest since a Democratic gubernatorial candidate won (1970. But now that Republicans got their top candidate in Washington state to run for governor next year -- Attorney General Rob McKenna -- it’s now or never for the GOP to take back the governor’s mansion in a presidential year. If McKenna can’t win, after Dino Rossi’s three failed statewide bids, then it’s hard to envision when Republicans will ever win it back.

Countdown to Iowa GOP straw poll: 65 days
Countdown to NV-2 special election: 96 days
Countdown to Election Day 2011: 152 days
Countdown to the Iowa caucuses: 242 days
* Note: When the IA caucuses take place depends on whether other states move up

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BACHMANN: Stu Rothenberg says it’s time to reassess what he calls his “knee-jerk reaction” that a member of the House can’t win the presidency. After all, it’s happened just once – back in 1880, when James Garfield won. And only two other times have members won major party nominations, both in the 19^th Century. “But with Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann expected to enter the GOP race, and growing speculation that House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) might also eventually jump in, it’s time for me to reassess,” Rothenberg writes in Roll Call today.

GINGRICH: Newt Gingrich yesterday signed a pledge from the grassroots organization Strong America Now, which encourages businesses to apply a business model that is supposed to increase efficiency. He signed it “in anticipation of the group’s deficit protest and information event ‘Deficit Free America Summit’ on June 18th in Des Moines, Iowa, the Nashua Telegraph reports.

PALIN: The Sarah Palin camp hits back at Michele Bachmann adviser Ed Rollins for criticizing Palin as not serious, The Hill reports. “Michael Glassner, the chief of staff at Palin's political action committee, SarahPAC, said that Rollins has a history of making foolish comments. ‘Beltway political strategist Ed Rollins has a long, long track record of taking high profile jobs and promptly sticking his foot in his mouth,’ Glassner said in the statement.”

PAUL: Freshman New Hampshire state Sen. Jim Forsyth, who the New Hampshire Union-Leader calls a “rising state conservative leader,” will chair Ron Paul’s campaign in the Granite State, the Union-Leader reports.

PAWLENTY: “Republican presidential hopeful Tim Pawlenty secured a major endorsement in the early primary state of South Carolina on Wednesday, picking up the support of U.S. Rep. Joe Wilson,” CNN reports. “Wilson will serve as co-chairman of the former Minnesota governor's campaign in South Carolina.”

Forbes columnist Leonard Burman shreds Tim Pawlenty’s economic plan, calling his plans for sustained 5% annual growth and the reduction or elimination of tax rates “fantasy tax policy.” More: “There is one more difference between fantasy sports and fantasy tax policy. The fantasy sport player is just some jock wannabee with a computer. Tim Pawlenty could be the next president.”

Pawlenty’s wife Mary is hitting the campaign solo, Politico writes. She’ll deliver he keynote speech at a Nashua Area Federated Republican Women luncheon on June 20, honoring tea-party congressional candidate Jennifer Horn as woman of the year.

Politico notes that former G.E. CEO Jack Welch praised Pawlenty last night on Piers Morgan’s show on CNN, saying Pawlenty is “starting to intrigue the hell out of me.” When asked by Morgan who on the Republican side interested Welch, he said, “If you had asked me that a month ago, I would have said, well, Mitt Romney might be the best guy, et cetera. The most obvious guy. But everything (I’ve seen) Tim Pawlenty say in the last month appeals to me.” (Here’s video.)

PERRY: While aides continue to insist that Rick Perry is not eyeing a presidential run, the signs are beginning to show that he might be, the Wall Street Journal writes. “Republican operatives in Washington and elsewhere say they have received calls recently from prominent Texas GOP donors seeking advice on how Mr. Perry might navigate a late entry into the field. It was unclear whether Mr. Perry or anyone on his team had instigated the calls.” One hurdle for Perry if he does decide to run? His two top campaign aides both signed on with Newt Gingrich, the Journal says.

ROMNEY: Making a swing through Michigan, Mitt Romney has to defend his opposition to a federal bailout of General Motors and Chrysler, but he told the Detroit Free Press that he’s “not worried” about his position. He said he agreed with some of the steps Obama took, including running the companies through a structured bankruptcy. “‘What I suggested was they shouldn't just write a check,’” he said.

Republican Rep. Thaddeus McCotter (R-MI) slammed Romney yesterday for not supporting the auto bailout, the Detroit News reports. “Motor City hospitality dictates a Michigan message to Mitt that our struggling families, entrepreneurs and workers think Mr. Romney and Mr. Obama are not rivals, they're running mates,” McCotter, who is considering a presidential bid, said in a statement.

Romney will visit Atlanta, Georgia on June 16 for a fundraiser, the AP reports. State Attorney General Sam Olens is among the co-chairmen for the event.

SANTORUM: Rick Santorum signed the anti-tax pledge from the conservative group Americans for Tax Reform with group president Grover Norquist standing by, the AP writes. Santorum said signing the pledge was a “minimum” and while he offered no specifics said, “We need to have pro-growth oriented taxes to get this economy up and going.”

Santorum will be back in Iowa on Saturday for a homeschooling conference – his 16^th trip to the state this election cycle, according to the Des Moines Register.

Bloomberg News reports, “President Barack Obama’s advisers have discussed seeking a temporary cut in the payroll taxes businesses pay on wages as they debate ways to spur hiring amid signs that the recovery is slowing, according to people familiar with the matter. The idea, which is in preliminary stages of discussion, is among several being talked about at the White House as the economy holds center stage for the administration and Congress.”

Time magazine: "For now, Obama's aides have chosen to take a careful path, aiming to spur short-term growth while protecting the President from Republican charges that he is a Big Government big spender. How? In public, they talk of "leveraging the private sector" and "investing in the future," with more long-term funds for infrastructure, education and energy, not more bailouts or stimulus. The White House agrees with Boehner that long-term budget cuts and entitlement reforms could add some confidence to the markets, but some Obama aides also want more short-term stimulus to make sure the economy does not languish. "In an ideal world," says one Obama adviser, "you would still have a little more help to the economy right now."

Per a new CBS poll, Obama’s approval rating is down to 48% (after a bin Laden bounce to 57%), while Quinnipiac has it at 47% (down from 52%).

But as we wrote yesterday, what’s most instructive here is that Obama’s numbers are in the mid-to-high 40s -- which isn’t smooth sailing for an incumbent president but which also isn’t necessarily perilous (16 months out) given the current economic headwinds. Folks, we have a LONG way to go…

The Obama re-election campaign's activities are heating up. For the first time, it issued a press advisory announcing an Obama fundraiser in Miami on June 13 (the same day as the GOP presidential debate in New Hampshire). The campaign, per an official, has also announced the hiring of its political director: Katherine Archuleta, who currently serves as Labor Secretary Hilda Solis' chief of staff.

“Obama has issued just one veto every 435 days; the presidential average since 1881 is once every 20 days,” the University of Minnesota’s Smart Politics blog writes.

Here’s a portion of NBC’s Jesusemen Edoro’s dispatch of Vice President Biden’s remarks on Sunday night at the Ford Theatre Society’s annual gala: Biden applauded actress Julie Andrews and former pro basketball player Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, the "Lincoln Medal" honorees of the night. "Whether it was the sweet sound of Julie's voice or the swish of Kareem's sky hook, these two people fit into the sweeping ach of Americas greatness, Biden said." Then quoting Abraham Lincoln, the vice president added, "Whatever you are, be a good one, you two are the very best at what you do." The gala included performances Avery Brooks, Scott Bakula, Richard Dreyfuss, Anika Noni Rose, the cast of the musical “Liberty Smith,” and more.

“A US Senate proposal to delay a reduction in the swipe card fees charged to retailers failed,” the Boston Globe writes, adding, “The issue has fueled a fierce lobbying on Capitol Hill battle in recent months between banks and retailers over the fees that banks charge to stores when customers swipe their debit cards. Tester’s amendment would have delayed that reduction by one year, and required the Federal Reserve to study the issue for six months.”

“Rarely do Senate votes get decided in what participants describe as a “cage match,’” Roll Call writes. “But that’s exactly what appeared to happen Wednesday morning in the office of Sen. Mark Begich, where top lobbyists from the retail and bank industries faced off in a last-minute bid to convince the Alaska Democrat that he should side with them on a proposal to delay new limits on fees for debit card transactions.”

The New York Post: “Huma pregnant! Pop goes the weasel.” 

The New York Daily News: “Little Weiner in the oven.”

IOWA: Rep. Steve King (R-IA) recorded a video message for Tea Party activists on as they embark on their bus tour from June 13 to July 2, the Iowa Independent reports. In the video, King praises the activists for helping 2012 candidates shape their message by using a “new platform.”

MONTANA: “Gov. Brian Schweitzer — term-limited and leaving office next year — has declined to rule out challenging Baucus in the Democratic primary” in 2014, Roll Call writes. “The Senator's low approval ratings could motivate formidable Republicans to also enter the race.”

NEW HAMPSHIRE: The Union-Leader’s DiStaso says he doesn’t expect participants in Monday’s presidential debate to take too many jabs at the current frontrunner, Mitt Romney. “We don't expect all-out attacks by any of the candidates — not at this early stage of the game. They realize that this will be the first time many ‘regular’ voters in New Hampshire and across the country will be tuning in to the campaign in a serious way. While the candidates will want to make a strong, decisive first impression, they don't want that first impression to be as an attack dog by going ‘negative.’”

The latest monthly budget report from the Congressional Budget Office shows the deficit for first eight months of fiscal year 2012 was just a bit smaller than same period last year.

But revenues coming in to the Treasury continue to go up in a healthy way: a 28.5% increase in personal income tax revenues, compared to the same period last year.

One conclusion: even as debate rages in Washington over raising income tax rates and eliminating tax breaks, the federal government is seeing strong revenue growth -- with no increase in income tax rates and no elimination of tax breaks.

In fact, the tax package President Obama signed into law last December extended a variety of tax breaks and cut taxes by $374 billion for this calendar year.

But tempering the good news on revenue growth, here’s some perspective: While personal income tax revenues were up in the first eight months of FY 2012, they are still below where they were three years ago, before the recession fully hit.

So far this fiscal year, income tax revenues are at $702 billion, according to the CBO report. But in the same period back in fiscal year 2008, they stood at $769 billion.

Total revenues – including corporate tax, individual income tax, and Medicare and Social Security taxes -- are still 11 percent below where they were at the same point in fiscal year 2008. (The federal government’s fiscal year runs from October 1 to the following September 30, so FY 2008 began in October 2007.)

Meanwhile, when CBO adjusts for special factors like prepayments of deposit insurance by banks, spending is up only one percent overall so far in the current fiscal year.

Worryingly, as in previous months, the fastest growing item of spending is interest payments on the debt – and that’s even with today’s extraordinarily low interest rates.

How much more revenue could be gained if just half of today’s unemployed were working?

A back-of-the-envelope estimate: If 7 million more people were working, and assuming each paid an average of $7,500 in federal taxes this year, that would be another $52.5 billion in annual revenue.

With jobs and the economy topping Americans' concerns, President Obama headed to a community college in Northern Virginia to highlight the need to train workers for the manufacturing jobs he believes are key to strengthening the economy.

The president returned to North Virginia Community College to announce several new initiatives that are part of the "Skills for America's Future" program launched last year to focus on workforce training, including plans to help half-a-million community college students get industry-recognized credentials that will helped them get skilled jobs, provide more opportunities for at-risk youth and provide new online tools to connect workers with employers.

The president toured labs at the college's Alexandria campus where students are trained to work on advanced vehicles, before delivering brief remarks.

"Right now there are people across America with talents just waiting to be tapped, sparks waiting to be lit," he said. "Our job is to light them and there's no time to lose when we've got folks looking for work, when we've got companies that need to stay competitive in this 21st Century economy and when we know that we've gotta rebuild the middle class and a lot of that's going to have to do how well we do in manufacturing and how well we do in jobs that are related to making products here in the United States of America."

Obama also pushed Congress to pass -- or reauthorize -- the Workforce Investment Act, a federal job training program.

The U.S. economy added just 54,000 jobs in May, growing at much-slower pace than expected and not nearly quickly enough to put a dent in the unemployment rate, which ticked up to 9.1 percent. The economy is almost certainly going to take center stage in next year's presidential election.

Today's speech was aimed at showing the president is concerned about the issue at the top of voters' minds and is doing everything possible to tackle it. Still, there is not much appetite in Congress for more stimulus and while the president argued manufacturing training programs were necessary to provide companies with the skilled workers they need, employment in that sector actually fell slightly -- by 5,000 jobs -- in May.

Obama held a town hall on the debt and deficit at the community college's Annandale Campus in April.

Your First Read authors, as well as the rest of the political press, gave considerable attention to yesterday's Washington Post/ABC poll, which shows Mitt Romney leading President Obama by three points among registered voters, 49%-46%.

But a new Quinnipiac poll -- conducted around the same time as the Post/ABC poll, though for a bit longer period of time -- finds Obama in the lead by six points, 47%-41%.

But what's probably most instructive in both polls is that Obama finds himself in the mid-to-high 40s, which isn't smooth sailing for an incumbent president, but it also isn't necessarily perilous, especially given the current economic headwinds (like the high gas prices).

In other hypothetical general-election match-ups in the poll, Obama leads Jon Huntsman by 14 points (48%-34%), Tim Pawlenty by 12 points (48%-36%), and Sarah Palin by 17 points (53%-36%).

The Quinnipiac poll also showed Romney leading the Republican primary pack at 25% -- followed by Palin at 15%, Herman Cain at 9%, and Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul at 8%.

We're shooting another edition of Inside the Boiler Room today. Got a question? Post it below!

Is Romney a stronger front-runner than we all thought?... Then again, are expectations getting too high for him?... What the Ed Rollins hire says about Bachmann’s potential campaign: She’s no Sarah Palin… Tim Pawlenty, truth-teller?... Newt is back from vacation, stumping in New Hampshire… Obama talks the economy at Northern Virginia Community College at 11:30 am ET… Cain is in New York, and Santorum’s in New Hampshire.

*** The strong GOP front-runner? As it’s turned out, Mitt Romney has had a great last seven days, even if Sarah Palin stepped on his toes last Thursday. The economic message he unveiled in his announcement couldn’t have come at a better time for him (amid bad economic news for the Obama White House). The new Washington Post/ABC poll, which shows him leading Obama, helps with fundraising and highlights his electability credentials. And a robo-poll finds him with a sizeable lead in South Carolina, where he wasn’t planning to heavily compete. All of which raise this question: Is Romney a stronger front-runner than we all thought? It’s easy to list his weaknesses -- his 2008 campaign, his health-care law, his past flip-flops -- but we can’t dismiss the bounce he’s received since announcing his presidential campaign and the other strengths he  brings to this campaign.

*** Great Expectations: But there’s a flip side to this early bump: expectations. When you talk to Team Romney, they are a bit nervous about getting ahead too quickly. As Howard Dean, Hillary Clinton, and even Romney himself found out the hard way in 2008 (after being the ONLY Republican that year to lead in both Iowa and New Hampshire, at the same time), being the front-runner -- in the summer before the nominating contests -- is a precarious position. There’s nowhere to go but down… 

*** What the Rollins hire says about Bachmann’s potential campaign: Michele Bachmann’s emerging campaign team took a shot at Sarah Palin, with new strategist Ed Rollins criticizing her for not being serious. "Sarah has not been serious over the last couple of years," he said on FOX. But Rollins brings both the good and bad for Team Bachmann. As Mother Jones’ David Corn has uncovered, Rollins previously questioned Bachmann’s own seriousness after her Tea Party response to President Obama’s State of the Union. But the most significant thing about Bachmann’s hiring of Rollins is that it should end -- once and for all -- the simplistic/conventional Acela Corridor analysis that always puts her in the same space with Palin. The fact is, Bachmann went out of her comfort zone and hired a top Republican strategist. Palin hasn’t, and she probably wouldn't ever do that. Bachmann's not fighting for the same space as Palin; she's fighting in the same space as Herman Cain, Rick Santorum, even Tim Pawlenty. So, folks: Be careful on this Palin vs. Bachmann media narrative. It borders on, well, you know…

*** Tim Pawlenty, truth-teller? One difficulty when a politician casts himself/herself as a truth-teller -- as Tim Pawlenty has done on ethanol, Social Security, etc. -- is that no successful politician can tell all truths. In American politics, there will always be exaggerations, empty promises, gimmicks, and sacred cows. And Pawlenty yesterday may have undercut his narrative of being a truth-teller when he pledged to grow the economy by 5% annually, something that didn’t even happened during the economic boom in the late 1990s. Every president would LOVE 5% growth annually; and if there was an actual way to create it, every president would have done it.

*** Newt is back from vacation: Guess what, folks: Newt Gingrich is back on the campaign trail today, stumping in New Hampshire. It’s his first appearance on the trail since May 26. He officially launched his presidential bid on May 11.

*** Obama and the economy: President Obama may have thought hosting German Chancellor Angela Merkel for a state dinner yesterday would give him a temporary break from the gloomy economic news. But he had no such luck as he tried to calm nervous Americans with more upbeat news in a media avail with Merkel. “Prior to this month, we had seen three months of very robust job growth in the private sector. And so we were very encouraged by that,” he said yesterday. “This month, you still saw job growth in the private sector, but it had slowed down. We don’t yet know whether this is a one-month episode or a longer trend.” Many aides acknowledge that the bad jobs report released last week only raises the stakes for the next one because one can be a bump in the road. But two?

*** Super-NOVA: At 11:30 am ET in Northern Virginia, Obama will talk more about the economy when he delivers a speech at Northern Virginia Community College. Per the White House, the president will “highlight the importance of training and preparing our workforce to compete for manufacturing jobs across our country.” Also today, he  meets with Nigeria’s president at the White House, and honors the Auburn University football team for winning the 2010 BCS college football championship.

*** Boren won’t run for re-election: Creating a possible pick-up opportunity for Republicans, conservative Oklahoma Democratic Congressman Dan Boren announced he wouldn’t seek re-election in 2012. The AP: "Boren, 37, a conservative Democrat who comfortably won reelection last year, said that he is proud of his record and that he was picked three times to represent Oklahoma’s Second District, which has long voted Republican in presidential elections."

*** On the 2012 trail: Elsewhere today, Cain is in New York participating in an Americans for Prosperity rally against capping carbon emissions… And Santorum makes three stops in New Hampshire, including one where he will sign the Americans for Tax Reform pledge not to raise taxes if elected.

Countdown to Iowa GOP straw poll: 66 days
Countdown to NV-2 special election: 97 days
Countdown to Election Day 2011: 153 days
Countdown to the Iowa caucuses: 243 days
* Note: When the IA caucuses take place depends on whether other states move up

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BACHMANN: Michele Bachmann’s adviser Ed Rollins took on Sarah Palin yesterday while appearing on a radio show, saying she has “not been serious over the last couple of years,” The Hill writes. “Bachmann has publicly been gracious toward Palin in public, but Rollins's comments indicate that there could be more sniping between the two Tea Party favorites if both decide to enter the presidential race.”

But Mother Jones finds instances when new Bachmann adviser Ed Rollins criticized his new boss as not a serious candidate. Rollins’ explanation? "That was before she hired me!” he said, in part.

CAIN: Republican presidential candidate Herman Cain said on CNN last night that his biggest problem with President Obama is his "lack of leadership," NBC’s Matt Loffman notes. "Lack of leadership on those critical issues, particularly the economy, is my number one problem with what the president is doing," Cain said.

GINGRICH: Today Newt Gingrich will sign the Strong America Now deficit reduction pledge, a group promoting cutting the deficit by promoting business practices known as the Lean Six Sigma strategy, the New Hampshire Union-Leader reports. “Gingrich will sign the pledge at C&M Machine Products, Inc. in Hudson, which describes itself on its web site as ‘a world class supplier of precision components to Fortune 500 companies, as well as middle and lower tier manufacturers.’”

HUNTSMAN: Huntsman will make his third trip to New Hampshire this Friday, Real Clear Politics reports, for “a total of about eight public events in two days. Add that to the 11 from this past weekend and the 13 he attended three weeks before, and Huntsman will have held an eye-popping 32 Granite State events in less than a month, far outpacing the visits of his competition.”

PALIN: “A Democratic congressman from Oregon is questioning whether it was appropriate for the National Park Service to give special treatment to former Alaska governor Sarah Palin during her recent ‘One Nation’ bus tour to historic sites on the East Coast,” the Washington Post writes. “Representative Earl Blumenauer, an Oregon Democrat who sits on the House Ways and Means and Budget committees, sent a letter yesterday to Park Service director John Jarvis asking for an accounting of whether taxpayer resources were spent to accommodate the Palins.”

PAWLENTY: The New York Times on Pawlenty’s speech in Chicago yesterday: “Former Gov. Tim Pawlenty called on Tuesday for more than $2 trillion in tax cuts for individuals and businesses over the next decade and two to three times as much in federal spending reductions and loophole closings, saying that such policies would drive rapid economic growth."

The AP: “The former Minnesota governor's plan aims for a bullish 5 percent annual growth that would balance the federal budget while forgoing trillions of dollars in tax revenue… His own team acknowledged the assumptions were aggressive. One critic called it ‘patently ridiculous,’” as sustained 5 percent growth for a decade would be unprecedented in modern times.

According to Politico, Conservative group Club for Growth’s president Chris Chocola praised Pawlenty’s speech, writing that Pawlenty was “exactly right in calling for cleaning up the tax code by instituting flatter tax rates and eliminating tax loopholes and giveaways. His support for cutting the corporate tax rate, eliminating the capital gains tax and dividend tax is outstanding.”

ROMNEY: Per NBC’s Loffman, Romney said in a CNN interview that he would not let his religious beliefs influence decisions he would make as president including abortion rights and gay rights -- though he believes that marriage should be between one man and one woman. He refused to be labeled as a "spokesman" for the Mormon Church. "I'm not here in a religious context; I'm here as a candidate for president," he said.  "And as a candidate for president, or as a president, I would have to represent the interests of all the people."

According to a new Quinnipiac Poll, “More than a third of U.S. voters have some qualms about a Mormon president, even as Republicans prefer former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney over other presidential candidates,” Bloomberg writes. While 36% of voters say they were “somewhat” or “entirely uncomfortable” with a Mormon presidential candidate, Mitt Romney led the Republican field with 25 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents.

The Boston Globe’s Viser looks at Romney’s more laid-back style this time around: “As he reintroduces himself to Republican voters, Mitt Romney is increasingly trying to highlight a more casual side of himself” that appears designed to make Romney appear more, well, average. But some suggest the updated style runs the risk of making him seem calculating, and willing to change his image if that’s what it takes to become president.”

“After a spate of discouraging economic reports, President Obama insisted yesterday he is not afraid of the country slipping into a double-dip recession,” the AP writes. “But at the same time he displayed some impatience and said the pace of the recovery has got to accelerate.” And: Obama “tried to project both confidence and empathy.”

“President Obama on Wednesday will outline an expansion of a worker-training program intended to boost the manufacturing sector,” The Hill notes. “The ‘Skills for America’s Future’ program is an industry-led initiative intended to improve partnerships with community colleges and create easier to understand, uniform job training requirement standards for prospective manufacturing employees.”

The Washington Post: “The hugely expensive U.S. attempt at nation-building in Afghanistan has had only limited success and may not survive an American withdrawal, according to the findings of a two-year congressional investigation to be released Wednesday. The report calls on the administration to rethink urgently its assistance programs as President Obama prepares to begin drawing down the number of U.S. troops in Afghanistan this summer.”

“The Obama administration on Tuesday night may have thrown a monkey wrench into Senate Democratic plans to pass what they see as a jobs bill -- by implying the bill spends too much money,” The Hill writes.

The New York Post calls for Anthony Weiner to resign: “Fall on your sword, Weiner” is the Post’s cover.

The New York Daily News dubs him the “Pee Wee Herman of Congress” and its cover: “Putz’s porn star.”

The New York Times: “Mr. Weiner spent much of the past 24 hours apologizing over and over to stunned Congressional colleagues and Democratic leaders angry at him for misleading them and the public. Even neighboring House Democrats seemed shaken, with many of them worrying that worse disclosures may still surface. In a tense telephone call with Mr. Weiner, during which he apologized, Representative Nydia M. Velázquez of Brooklyn scolded him, as she recalled: ‘How can you explain that somebody can be so smart but so stupid?’”

“Asked if Mr. Weiner should resign, she replied, ‘The most important thing in this business is credibility.’”

“A full 51% of city voters think Weiner should not be forced to resign his Queens-Brooklyn House seat, a New York 1-Marist poll taken hours after the congressman fessed to sext-capades found,” The New York Daily News writes. “However, 56% think the ambitious politician should not run for Gracie Mansion in 2013, a depressing total for a candidate many political observers had pegged as the front-runner before the scandal broke.”

“Rep. Anthony Weiner insisted he will not resign, but a cloud now looms over the New York Democrat’s once-bright political future,” Roll Call reports. “His New York City mayoral ambitions are all but dead, and his hold on his Congressional seat is in jeopardy.”

“While House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi stopped short of calling for Rep. Anthony Weiner to resign, her demand for an ethics investigation into his online affairs clearly signaled that her Caucus thinks it's time for him to go,” Roll Call writes. “Democrats said Pelosi's unprecedented decision to swiftly call for an ethics investigation — and her harsh words for the New York Democrat — has sent a not-so-subtle sign that leadership does not want to see a protracted scandal at a time when Democrats are battling for control of the House.”

“When John Boehner rose from Minority Leader to Speaker in January, he not only expanded his staff and his paycheck, he more than doubled the expense-account check he cashes each month,” Roll Call writes. He receives a direct payment from taxpayers each month of $2,083.33, up from $833 a month. “Boehner now appears to be the only Member of the House accepting this money in direct payments each month.”

“Republicans want a short-term increase to the debt ceiling if the talks led by Vice President Biden do not produce sufficient spending cuts, Senate Minority Whip Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.) said Tuesday,” The Hill reports.

How strong is the Snooki Lobby? “Republicans have targeted for repeal a tax on tanning-bed services meant to offset costs of the new healthcare law,” The Hill reports.

“Former Sen. Evan Bayh (D-Ind.) and one-time White House chief of staff Andy Card have joined the U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s campaign against burdensome regulations,” The Hill notes. “Bayh and Card will travel around the United States to provide a “bipartisan message on regulatory reform” through speeches, events and media appearances, according to a memo that was obtained by the Center for Public Integrity.”

CALIFORNIA: “California Members will get the first glimpse into their political futures later this week, when the state’s independent redistricting commission releases its first draft of the new Congressional district maps,” Roll Call writes. The maps will be released Friday.

COLORADO: “Michael Hancock proved Tuesday that Denver voters love an underdog and are willing to forgive missteps from a likable guy,” the Denver Post writes. “The city councilman parlayed a rough childhood into a stunning success story and defeated former state Sen. Chris Romer to claim the job of Denver mayor that he boldly predicted as a teenager he'd one day hold.” He won 58%-42%.

NEVADA: “In her first bid for elected office, Carolyn Goodman crushed a politically experienced rival Tuesday and established a Goodman dynasty at Las Vegas City Hall,” the Las Vegas Review-Journal writes. She won 61%-39%.

OKLAHOMA: “Representative Dan Boren, Oklahoma’s only Democratic member of Congress and the son of one of its most powerful men, said yesterday that he will not seek a fifth term next year because he is tired of campaigning and wants to spend more time with his family,” AP writes.

Exactly 10 years ago today, George W. Bush signed the first of his large tax cuts into law, which President Obama temporarily extended last December.

And get this: In those 10 years -- under two different presidents and after more tax cuts -- the U.S. economy has lost a net of 1.1 million jobs.

Of course, much has taken place in those 10 years. The recession of 2001. The 9/11 attacks. The 2008 financial collapse. And the global economic downturn that followed.

But those 1.1 million jobs lost -- compared with more than 20 million jobs added during higher tax rates in the 1990s -- make the argument that lower taxes aren't always a guarantee for economic growth and job expansion.

The reason from the left: The Bush tax cuts were heavily tilted toward the wealthy, who are less inclined to spend their excess money. What's more, they reduced the amount of revenue flowing into the Treasury Department's coffers.

"The Bush tax cuts are a major driver of our current deficit -- and have been and will continue to be," argues Chuck Marr, director of federal tax policy at the liberal-leaning Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.

Chris Edwards, the director of tax policy studies at the libertarian-leaning Cato Institute, has a different take on the Bush tax cuts.

Edwards says the 2001 cuts (which included lower individual tax rates) turned out to be less effective than the later ones enacted in 2003 (on dividends and capital gains). "Bush's cuts were half and half in my view."

He also contends that it's too simplistic to extrapolate from the last 10 years that tax cuts -- in general -- don't work. "So much goes on in the economy," Edwards said, referring to external events, trade policies, and spending. "Clinton's higher tax rate doesn't prove any kind of relationship."

The current crop of Republican presidential hopefuls are continuing to bet on lower taxes. In his speech at the University of Chicago today, former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty proposed decreasing individual income-tax rates to just two levels: 10% and 25%; 35% is the current top level. And he also called for a lower corporate-tax rate.

"Growing at 5% a year -- rather than at the current level of 1.8% -- would net us millions of new jobs," Pawlenty said. "How do we do it? In short, we create more economic growth by creating more economic freedom."

The Democratic-leaning Center for American Progress today denounce Tim Pawlenty's economic plan as "patently ridiculous," saying there is absolutely no way the former Minnesota governor's plans would cure the country's economic woes.

"It's just radical to say the least," said Michael Ettlinger, the group's vice president for economic policy. "The tax cuts for the richest millionaires, billionaires, and corporations are really breathtaking."

As NBC's Lauren Selsky noted earlier, Pawlenty's plan would overhaul the tax code, reducing the corporate tax rate from 35% to 15%, closing loopholes, eliminating special interest handouts, and creating a fairer and flatter tax system overall. But Ettlinger and Michael Linden, the center's tax and budget policy director, claim these measures only worsen the debt crisis. Linden estimated Pawlenty's proposal to exempt all income from capital gains and dividends would cost more than $1 trillion in revenue over the next 10 years.

Both Linden and Ettlinger say Pawlenty's remedies are inadequeate, because his revenue projections overestimate how much the economy can grow. Pawlenty projected that the economy, under his leadership, would be able to by 5%. But during the economic expansions of 1983-1987 and 1996-1999, the economy never grew above 5% annually -- let alone over 10 years.

"Historically, it's never happened," Ettinger said. "But if pigs had wings, they'd fly. If we had 20% economic growth a year, we'd be done with the deficit in six weeks."

Can Rep. Anthony Weiner (D-NY) survive an ethics investigation and calls for his resignation?

The former head of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, Martin Frost, has some advice. Although the context is “totally different,” Frost said, "A very interesting solution to this would be to urge him to do what Phil Gramm did," referring to the former Texas politician.

Frost cited the then-Texas Democrat's decision to resign from his congressional seat and run as a Republican in the special election for the seat he vacated. 

"If Anthony Weiner wants to be vindicated, that would be an interesting path to follow... [He could ] say I'll run in the special election. Let the voters of my district make a decision on this matter."

But vindication may not be possible if Weiner loses his seat to redistricting.

"When New York loses two seats, which is the case here, one is taken upstate and one is taken out of the city. It may be the legislature says, 'OK, this is the seat we eliminate in the city,'" Frost said on MSNBC's "Andrea Mitchell Reports."

Weiner's immediate challenge may be to face a House ethics investigation. On Tuesday, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi sent a letter to House Ethics Committee Chair Jo Bonner, urging the committee to investigate the New York congressman's conduct -- a day after Weiner admitted to sending lewd photos to women via social media websites.

Though "the Ethics Committee could very well seriously reprimand him," Frost says Weiner will not face expulsion from the House.

"You don't get expelled for anything short of committing a felony," said Frost, the former Texas congressman.