NEW ORLEANS -- It's Day 2 here at the Republican Leadership Conference, formerly known as the Southern Republican Leadership Conference. (Follow along on Twitter for live updates: @DomenicoNBC.)

We have noted previously on First Read that this election is shaping up to be Mitt Romney vs. The Anti-Romney. It's like basketball, where one team has a bye to the second or third round and awaits the winner from the other bracket. 

Today is a chance for at least four of those, who could be the Anti-Romney, to win over activists at this convention, traditionally dominated by social-conservative rhetoric. Romney is not here. His campaign cited a "scheduling conflict." Tim Pawlenty is also not here; he gave a paid speech yesterday in San Francisco, and is in Minnesota tomorrow at the Right Online conservative conference.

Jon Huntsman was a late scratch yesterday. His campaign said he had a "bad cold," but that his wife and daughter would be coming instead. The campaign yesterday said neither would speak, but the updated schedule from the RLC shows that Huntsman's wife, Mary Kaye will, in fact, be speaking at 1:25 pm ET following Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, who speaks at 12:55 pm ET.

Here's the rest of schedule for today: 

Cain (2:45pET), Paul (3:15pET), DeMint (3:45pET), Bachmann (4:18pET), Santorum (4:48pET), Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal (5:48pET).

The conservative group 60 Plus Association has announced it's airing a TV ad supporting the House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan's plan to overhaul Medicare.

The ad -- which will run on national cable, as well as in Florida and Ohio -- even features Ryan.

"Washington has not been honest with you about Medicare, Ryan says in the ad. "If we do nothing, Medicare spending will nearly double over the next decade, exhausting its remaining funds."

He goes on to say, "No change occurs to Medicare for anybody who's on Medicare or ten years away from retiring."

What the ad doesn't mention: Ryan's plan fundamentally alters the government-run health program for seniors, transforming it into a system where future seniors (those under 55) receive a subsidy/voucher to purchase private health insurance.

In the latest NBC/WSJ poll, those believing that overhaul of Medicare is a bad idea increased from 22% in April to 31% now. By contrast, 22% in the poll say it's a good idea, while 45% don't have an opinion.

Is Pawlenty panicking?... He’s back to criticizing Romney on health care, after taking a pass at the debate… Romney’s recent slip-ups… In Georgia yesterday, Romney didn’t retract his dovish-sounding comments on Afghanistan… More on the War Powers Act debate… Day 2 at the Republican Leadership Conference: Cain (12:30 pm ET), Paul (1:00 pm ET), Bachmann (2:00 pm ET), and Santorum (3:30 pm ET)… And “Meet the Press” has Durbin and Graham, and NBC’s David Gregory breaks down the 2012 race and the NBC/WSJ poll with the NBC Political Unit.

*** Is Pawlenty panicking? Tim Pawlenty had a rough debate Monday night when he refused to criticize Mitt Romney on health care -- after telegraphing that he’d do so the day before. But just ask Barack Obama: Rough primary-season debates happen; everyone has a bad day. And fortunately for Pawlenty, the media world was already moving on to other stories (Weiner, Libya, other candidate stumbles). So why is Pawlenty now reversing himself and attacking Romney? Is he panicking? Yesterday, he fired off this unprompted Tweet: “On seizing debate opportunity re: healthcare: Me 0, Mitt 1. On doing healthcare reform the right way as governor: Me 1, Mitt 0.” And then he said this to FOX’s Hannity last night, which the Pawlenty camp later circulated to reporters: “I should have been much more clear during the debate, Sean. I don’t think we can have a nominee that was involved in the development and construction of ObamaCare and then continues to defend it. And that was the question. I should’ve answered it directly.”

*** Political schizophrenia: What is going on? Pawlenty takes a shot at Romney on FOX last Sunday. Then he refuses to deliver the same critique to Romney’s face on Monday. And three days later -- after many decided to give him a pass and simply say "OK, let's see what happens next time” -- he’s taking more shots on FOX. As we said after the debate, it appears that one of two things is happening. Either the candidate doesn’t agree with his advisers on strategy, or the campaign internally isn’t agreeing on strategy. Either way, that’s not a sign of a winning campaign. And all yesterday did was bring more attention to this issue.

*** Romney's recent slip-ups: After his presidential announcement earlier this month, Romney has enjoyed his best two-week stretch in politics since his days as Massachusetts governor. His economic-focused message resonated amidst the poor economic news; a national poll showed him leading Obama (though it now appears to have been an outlier); and he performed well at Monday's debate, while Pawlenty stumbled. But since that debate, Romney has slipped up. Republican hawks attacked him for his seemingly dovish debate answer on Afghanistan. He got caught measuring the Oval Office drapes when he quipped to a New Hampshire lumber company owner that the next time he’ll be back is in four years, when he’ll “probably have Secret Service.” And yesterday, he told a group of jobless Floridians, “I’m also unemployed.”

*** You’re out of touch… I’m out of time: It wasn’t a disastrous gaffe. The New York Times notes that Romney laughed, and so did those jobless Floridians. And in that respect, what Romney did wasn’t so different when President Obama laughed at shovel-ready projects earlier this week in North Carolina. But this particular Romney slip-up hits at one of the Republican front-runner’s chief vulnerabilities, especially in a tough economy: that the multimillionaire and multi-homeowner appears out of touch to the average American. Romney delivered this response to his I’m-also-unemployed line: “You know, I will always make light of myself, and self-deprecating humor is part of who I am,” he said. “But the reality is that we have a president that doesn’t understand the plight of the unemployed.”

*** Romney doesn’t retract his comments on Afghanistan: Yesterday in Georgia, Romney was asked about GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham’s criticism that Romney’s recent dovish-sounding comments on Afghanistan could make Obama into Reagan and the Republicans into Jimmy Carter. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution says Romney declined to address Graham’s comments, but he didn’t retract what he said at the debate. ”I think we did a superb job in moving the Taliban following 9/11, and that’s why we went there -- to get the Taliban and Al Qaeda out... And now we’re moving to a phase where, to hold on, to the independence and economic vitality which is beginning to grow in Afghanistan, the Afghanis themselves are going to have to step forward…." That's right: Romney was trying to make the case that we're now in a phase in Afghanistan where a war for independence of sorts is being fought. Is that really what's going on there?

*** The War Powers Act debate: There have been three big political stories this week: 1) the developments in the GOP presidential race; 2) Weiner, which is finally over; and 3) the debate over the War Powers Act when it comes to the limited U.S. involvement in Libya. And as we’ve written before, this third story is more about the war between two branches of government (the executive vs. the legislative). Yet lost in the debate is this argument: The United States is a member of NATO, and this is a NATO-led operation. As such, the U.S. can’t simply pull out of NATO (we're not Germany). Then again, is the White House on shaky legal ground when it comes to the War Powers Act? Consider this: It hasn’t asked the Justice Department’s Office of Legal Counsel to deliver an opinion on the matter since the operation has started and this debate heated up in Congress. Why? Perhaps the administration doesn’t want to know the answer?

*** RLC, Day 2: As one of us reported last night, Newt Gingrich's speech at the Republican Leadership Conference provided a glimpse of what kind of candidate he will be after his staff exodus -- one steeped in policy, who says he won't run a campaign “filled with attack ads” (since he probably won't be able to afford them) while still delivering plenty of red meat for the conservative base (if he can find free forums). Here's today's speaking line-up at the confab: Cain (12:30 pm ET), Paul (1:00 pm ET), Bachmann (2:00 pm ET), and Santorum (3:30 pm ET); Huntsman pulled out because he’s ill. Rick Perry speaks to the conference on Saturday.

*** RLC straw poll: By the way, here are the folks on the RLC's straw poll, the results of which will be released at 3:30 pm ET on Saturday: Bachmann, Cain, Gingrich, Huntsman, Gary Johnson, Thaddeus McCotter, Palin, Paul, Pawlenty, Buddy Roemer, Romney, and Santorum. Rick Perry won't be on the ballot.

*** Previewing “Meet” this Sunday: NBC’s David Gregory interviews Sens. Dick Durbin and Lindsey Graham, and the roundtable consists of L.A. Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, Paul Gigot, NBC’s Richard Engel, Doris Kearns Goodwin, and NBC’s Chuck Todd. And on MTP’s weekly “Press Pass,” Gregory spoke with two members of NBC Political Unit to discuss the 2012 race and the new NBC/WSJ poll.

Countdown to Iowa GOP straw poll: 57 days
Countdown to NV-2 special election: 88 days
Countdown to Election Day 2011: 144 days
Countdown to the Iowa caucuses: 234 days
* Note: When the IA caucuses take place depends on whether other states move up

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BACHMANN: Rep. Michele Bachmann “has made a deal to publish her memoir, selling a book to Sentinel, a conservative imprint at Penguin Group USA, two people familiar with the negotiations said on Thursday,” the New York Times reports. And: “John Fund, a columnist for the Wall Street Journal, will assist with the writing of the book.” More: “One person who saw Ms. Bachmann’s proposal said the book was largely biographical, an account of the formation of her political and economic ideas. Ms. Bachmann was “very impressive” in her meetings with publishers, winning over the skeptics in the room, the person said.”

Andy Parrish, Michele Bachmann’s former chief of staff who now works for her campaign, has moved to Iowa and become a temporary official resident of the state as he begins organizing for the straw poll and caucuses, the Des Moines Register writes.

CAIN: “Cain, the former CEO of the Godfather’s Pizza restaurant chain, is scheduled to hold a morning fundraiser at Dickie Brennan’s Palace Café. And, the event is being hosted by Brennan, among New Orleans’ most well-known and successful chefs and restaurateurs, according to a copy of the invitation obtained by Roll Call.”

Dale Peterson, the man who gained national prominence for a jump-cut ad for Alabama Agriculture Commissioner, endorsed Herman Cain at the Republican Leadership Convention in New Orleans: "We don’t need any more professional politicians."

CHRISTIE: “Gov. Chris Christie is like Adolf Hitler and New Jersey is like Nazi Germany, a local labor leader declared at a rally against the governor’s proposed pension reform moves Thursday,” Politico notes. “’It took World War II to get rid of the last Adolf Hitler — it’s gonna take World War III to get rid of Adolf Christie!’ shouted Communications Workers of America vice president Chris Shelton at a rally outside the statehouse in Trenton.”

GINGRICH: “Newt Gingrich’s campaign may be on life support – nearly devoid of paid staff and even lacking the money to pay the entry free for the Ames Straw poll – but as long as he can afford to fly to events such as the Republican Leadership Conference he’ll have a platform from which to speak. And speak,” Politico’s Martin writes. No longer constrained by campaign advisers who insisted on such conventions as ‘message discipline,’ Gingrich fulminated against President Obama, the news media, activist judges and assorted other liberal bogeymen for 41 minutes here Thursday night. It was classic Newt – slashing attacks, an array of ideas, and a few plugs for his website. All jumbled together with little cohesion.”

HUNTSMAN: “Jon Huntsman's Washington, D.C. fundraiser last night included what one attendee described as an unusually diverse Republican crowd -- including the heads of the two main, and feuding, gay Republican groups,” GOProud and Log Cabin Republicans, Politico’s Ben Smith reports

PAWLENTY: Pawlenty told Sean Hannity that he made a mistake in not directly confronting Romney at the debate: "I think in response to that direct question I should have been much more clear during the debate, Sean. I don't think we can have a nominee that was involved in the development and construction of Obamacare and then continues to defend it and that was the question, I should have answered it directly and instead I stayed focused on Obama...I should have been more clear, I should have made the point that (Romney) was involved in developing it, he really laid the groundwork..."

When you’ve lost Dale Peterson... He took a swipe at Pawlenty for not going after Romney at the debate, saying essentially, when you call someone out for a draw, you can't say it was someone else you were talking about.

Pawlenty was showered with glittery pink confetti by two protestors yesterday as he was signing books at an American Health insurance conference, the Los Angeles Times writes.

ROMNEY: Mitt Romney began speaking to a group of unemployed Floridians by introducing himself as also unemployed, the New York Times noted yesterday. “The references to Mr. Romney’s own unemployment status added yet another humorous, but occasionally awkward, moment to his ever-growing catalog of off-the-cuff remarks that he makes as he seeks the Republican presidential nomination.”

‘Bumps.’ Romney goes for another round of bumps.

The New York Post on Weiner: “Premature evacuation” and its cover today: “Weiner’s rise and fall.”

The New York Daily News: “Stick a fork in Weiner.”

Roll Call notes that Weiner may not have a job in Congress anymore, but his pension and benefits could total more than $1 million in his lifetime.

“The administration, in a report it gave to Congress on Wednesday, said that because the United States is in a supporting role in the NATO-led mission, American forces are not facing the hostilities that would require the president to seek such congressional consent under the War Powers Resolution,” the Boston Globe writes, adding, “Instead of calming lawmakers, the White House report and its claims about no hostilities further inflamed the fierce balance-of-power fight.”

“Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) said Thursday that he is open to reforming Medicare in a way that would leave a traditional fee-for-service system as an option for future seniors,” The Hill writes.

The New York Times: “Attorney General Eric H. Holder Jr. and the top Republican in the Senate, Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, traded barbs on Thursday about whether terrorism suspects captured on American soil should be prosecuted in regular civilian court or sent to Guantánamo Bay, Cuba, to face trial before a military commission.”

This was a rough story to read if you’re the White House. “It was supposed to be the White House’s latest make-nice session with corporate America — a visit by Chief of Staff William M. Daley to a meeting with hundreds of manufacturing executives in town to press lawmakers for looser regulations,” the Washington Post says. “But the outreach soon turned into a rare public dressing down of the president’s policies with his highest-ranking aide.”

Per NBC’s Libby Leist, Vice President Biden yesterday emerged from an afternoon of deficit talks on the Hill in positive spirits -- even heaping high praise on Republican negotiators Eric Cantor and Jon Kyl. Biden said the group has hit "the whole waterfront" in the federal budget and everyone is committed to an agreement that saves $4 trillion over a decade or so. He told reporters that the "tough stuff" is still left to go -- such as big ticket items like changes in Medicare. "There are differences that are going to have to be bridged and wont occur until the end," he said.

Biden “described in general some of the tentative horse-trading involved, saying that the two sides have started cutting smaller deals that are contingent on reaching a larger deal on tougher items, like revenue,” Roll Call writes. Things like, “Now we’re getting down to the real hard stuff,” he said. “I’ll trade you my bicycle for your golf clubs.”

MASSACHUSETTS: “US Senator Chuck Schumer, who has played a prominent role in recruiting Democrats to run for the US Senate, was seen dining this week with Elizabeth Warren, an Obama administration official and former Harvard Law professor some liberals want to challenge US Senator Scott Brown for reelection,” the Boston Globe writes.

MISSOURI: “Former Missouri Treasurer Sarah Steelman, who is running for the GOP nomination to take on Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.), has distanced herself from House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan’s controversial budget plan in a new Web video,” Roll Call writes. “‘The Ryan plan is a start, but it isn’t perfect. I opposed the $500 billion dollar cut in Medicare when it was in the Obamacare bill, and unfortunately, it’s still in the Ryan plan, and I don’t like the idea of vouchers that don’t keep up with the skyrocketing costs of health insurance,’ she said in the video.”

But Hotline On Call notes that Steelman later wouldn't specify whether or not she would have voted for the Ryan budget. "I don't think it's an either/or question on the Ryan Plan," Steelman said in a radio interview. "I think those people in Washington, both Republicans and Democrats, say 'Oh you gotta take a position on this.' Well, there's some things I like about it, there's some things I don't like about it."

NEW YORK: To replace Weiner, in New York, the governor has unilateral authority to set a date for a special election, and the county party chairman – Rep. Joe Crowley -- controls the nominating process. There won’t be a primary, and the earliest an election would take place is in three months, but that was described by Roll Call as “aggressive.”

WISCONSIN: At the liberal Netroots Nation Convention, “Ex-Sen. Russ Feingold on Thursday night sharply criticized Democrats for forming ‘super’ political action committees that can take unlimited corporate cash, flatly calling the entities ‘wrong,’” Roll Call writes.

NEW ORLEANS -- In his second speech since several top aides bolted his campaign last week, Newt Gingrich gave a glimpse here tonight of what kind of candidate he will be going forward -- one steeped in policy, who says he won't run a campaign “filled with attack ads,” while still delivering plenty of red meat for the conservative base.

Gingrich laid out five-point tax plan he claimed would create 25 million jobs and $800 billion a year in revenue. He would:

-       make tax cuts permanent
-       make capital-gains taxes zero
-       slash the corporate tax rate to 12.5%
-       allow companies to expense all new equipment 100%
-       abolish death tax 

Also in his first week – if he had Republican majorities in the House and Senate – he said he would:

-       repeal the financial regulations bills Sarbanes-Oxley and Dodd-Frank;
-       replace the Environmental Protection Agency with his version – the Environmental Solutions Agency
-       modernize the Food and Drug Administration;
-       audit the Federal Reserve Bank and make its core purpose to protect the value of the dollar, not economic growth
-       create “an American energy policy.” “Louisiana,” he said, “is and LA is the best place going.” Off-shore drilling is a major part of the Gulf Coast state’s economy. 

Gingrich urged the crowd at the RLC to make the choice between Republicans and Democrats in the 2012 elections. It’s one between “freedom” and “servitude,” he claimed.

And there was plenty of red meat with talk of White House “czars,” “socialism,” “George Soros,” “the 9^th Circuit, “American Exceptionalism,” and, of course, the obligatory attacks on “the media.”

The core of his argument against President Obama, he said, would be: that he is a national, secular, European Socialist.

“It is the opposite of freedom,” Gingrich said, adding later, “Socialism doesn’t work.”

“This is the only country that says, power comes from God to each one of you personally,” the former speaker of the House boasted.

He claimed that this would be the “most thoughtful, educational election” in more than a century. And it would be one that would not be “filled with attack ads.”

“All you have to say is, ‘Look at reality; it attacks him everyday,’” Gingrich said of Obama, whom he once again called the “food stamps president.”

He said the election “has to come down to proposals,” that he would create 400 executive orders, ready to be signed when he took office, and that if he debates Obama in 2012, he’d make him sign them there if he agreed with any.

It’s a familiar Gingrich for those who’ve followed him, the New Old Gingrich, one who is used to being unfiltered and speaking to friendly audiences, but also one who hasn’t campaigned for office in more than a decade. And there’s a difference between an “analyst” and someone who is hoping to win over enough people to vote for him for president.

From NBC’s Libby Leist and Greg Martin
A day after the Obama administration issued its report on U.S. activities in Libya, top senators on the Foreign Relations and Armed Services Committees are ramping up their criticism of the White House for not sufficiently consulting Congress on the conflict.

The White House issued the report after House Speaker John Boehner challenged the administration to defend the constitutionality of the operation before a 90-day benchmark since the Libya operation began.

Republicans are calling it "puzzling," "laughable," and even "bizarre" that the White House argued the U.S. is not involved in "hostilities" in Libya that would require Congressional authorization under the War Powers Act.

Even Democratic Sen. John Kerry, the Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and a close ally of the White House, believes Congress should be able to weigh in.

"We're always better and we're always stronger when we have the expression of the American people through the Congress in support of something and I'm disposed to try to do that," he told reporters this afternoon just off the Senate floor.

Kerry does not believe the mission requires Congressional authorization but he intends to co-sponsor a resolution with Republican Sen. John McCain that will include language specifically authorizing "limited activities" in Libya. That resolution could be taken up in the Senate Foreign Relations Committee next week.

"We're prepared to take something to the floor," Kerry said.

The Massachusetts senator added that he believes there is already a legal basis for the U.S. operation under NATO, and he said emphatically that the U.S. is NOT at war.

"I don't think American forces and troops are in harm’s way. We're not directly engaging our armed forces into those hostilities," he said.

Sen. Dick Durbin, the number two Democrat in the Senate and a member of the Foreign Relations Committee, disputed the White House's argument that the War Powers Act should not apply to the Libyan operation on Thursday.

"I believe that what we are engaged in with Libya is a matter that should come under the War Powers Resolution," he said on the Senate floor. "I believe that we should, as a Congress, consider it under the War Powers Resolution...it will give the President clear authority and will also establish the clear authority of Congress."

He told reporters after his floor speech that a vote to approve the president's action is "the right thing to do."

"Make it official. I would vote in support of that," he said.

Earlier Thursday on the Senate floor, McCain, a supporter of the mission, strongly challenged the legal argument that the War Powers Resolution does not apply because the U.S. is not engaged in a state of "hostilities" there.

He called it a "confusing breach of common sense."

He added, "I agree that actions like these do not amount to a full-blown state of war, and I would certainly grant that I am no legal scholar, but I find it rather hard to swallow that U.S. Armed Forces dropping bombs and killing enemy personnel in a foreign country does not amount to a state of hostilities."

Armed Services Republican Sen. Lindsay Graham – who also serves as a Judge Advocate General’s Corps (JAG) attorney – called the Administration's rationale "lawerly."

Graham said the White House’s “convoluted definition of 'hostilities'” will “basically back us in a corner.”  

Another Republican on the Foreign Relations Committee, Sen. Bob Corker of Tennessee, called the administration's argument "one of the more bizarre things I've seen occur since I've been here.”

He said the President has bungled the consultation with Congress from the start.

"It's strange because my sense is had they come to ask for authorization on the front end and just been open about it, these are the kinds of things that typically there's overwhelming bipartisan support,” Corker said. 

NEW ORLEANS -- The biggest news out of Gary Johnson's speech isn't going to be any measure of where Johnson stands in his quest to get the Republican presidential nomination. The former New Mexico governor is decidedly lower tier, and the polite listening here for the most part is proof of that. 

But there is a growing Republican split emerging on foreign policy, especially on Afghanistan. Johnson and Rep. Ron Paul's brand of Libertarian, non-interventionist foreign policy is becoming more mainstream, and that was evident here as well with this socially conservative crowd.

"Let's get out of Iraq and Afghanistan tomorrow," Johnson boasted. About half the crowd applauded. One man whistled. But he's the same man who did so when Johnson called for the legalization of marijuana.

That Johnson or Paul calls for getting out of conflicts places is one thing, but Gov. Haley Barbour (R-MS), when most thought he was running for president, called for an end to the war in Afghanistan. Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, who is going to announce his bid for the presidency Tuesday, is the latest to take up the mantle. And Mitt Romney, the presumed front-runner, seemed to open the door to it as well during the GOP debate Monday.

In a speech in San Francisco today, Republican presidential hopeful Tim Pawlenty addressed the nation's top health-insurer lobbying group, where he criticized President Obama's health-care law. 

Speaking at the America's Health Insurance Plans (AHIP) conference -- for which he was reportedly paid by the health-insurer group -- Pawlenty said that the health care law is not financially sound.

“Within 15 years or less, the system will be financially bankrupt like most of the current entitlements are or will soon be."

He added that the law will be "one of the worst mistakes" and that the only way to fix it is to repeal the law.

"My approach is to say repeal the whole thing and start over. I think it is in philosophically, directionally, fundamentally flawed. The idea that the federal government is going to take into Washington, DC this chunk of our economy -- manage it, limit choices, limit options, create the oversight, regulate it, finance it, staff it -- I think will be 20 years from now one of the worst mistakes of the modern history of the country."

NEW ORLEANS -- Social conservative values have taken a backseat in this presidential election so far, with the rise of the Tea Party and the economy struggling.

But starting today, they will be on full display here. Over the next three days, seven Republican presidential hopefuls speak at the Republican Leadership Conference, formerly known as the Southern Republican Leadership Conference.

Former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, former Godfather’s Pizza CEO Herman Cain, Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, Texas Rep. Ron Paul, and former Louisiana Gov. Buddy Roemer will all address the faithful, as will Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who’s “thinking about” a bid.

Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman was a late scratch because he “came down with a cold,” according to spokesman Tim Miller. Huntsman’s wife and daughter are going in his stead, Miller added.

Also notably absent: presumed front-runner Mitt Romney, who has never been a darling of this crowd; and Tim Pawlenty.

Today, however, Pawlenty is delivering a paid speech in San Francisco on health care before America’s Health Insurance Plans, an industry group, which staunchly opposed the health-care overhaul that passed last year. He will also be speaking tomorrow in Minnesota at the RightOnline Conference. Bachmann and Cain are speaking at both the RLC and RightOnline.

Among the major speakers -- Mike Huckabee, who has ruled out a bid but is very popular here. Huckabee has just taken the stage. Before the speech, he was stage right, taking pictures and signing books with a line that stretched about 25 feet.

Of those running for president, Johnson (5:00 pm ET) and Gingrich (8:00 pm ET) speak this evening.

The show really gets underway tomorrow. The speakers include: Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, who bowed out of the presidential race; Cain; Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC); Bachmann; Santorum; Paul; and Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal.

Perry speaks Saturday, the same day the results of the straw poll will be announced (2:30 pm ET).

There are 12 names on the straw poll: Bachmann, Cain, Gingrich, Huntsman, Johnson, Rep. Thaddeus McCotter (R-MI), Palin, Paul, Pawlenty, Roemer, Romney, and Santorum.

For full coverage, follow along on Twitter: @DomenicoNBC

As we noted yesterday, former Gov. Mitt Romney’s off-the-cuff confidence about winning the presidency earned him a scolding from a New Hampshire newspaper.

He may not be doing himself any favors with another quip delivered to a coffee-shop roundtable of unemployed Floridians this morning.

Per the NYT’s Jeff Zeleny, Romney pointed out to the eight jobless folks participating in the discussion “I’m also unemployed.”

The comment drew laughter, Zeleny reports, and the GOP presidential hopeful added a light note of humility at the end of the conversation. “I wish I had a job for everybody,” Romney said. He added, “I may be unemployed for longer than I’d like.”

But that didn’t prevent Romney’s line from being quickly circulated by Democrats eager to paint the wealthy former venture capitalist as out of touch with struggling Americans. DNC Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz responded to the comment, calling Romney's remark "inappropriate and insensitive."

"Being unemployed, Mr. Romney, is not a joke – not to my constituents in Florida or to millions of Americans across the country," she said in a statement.

(Romney, by the way, filed financial disclosure forms in 2007 indicating that he and his wife hold assets of as much as $250 million.)

After receiving a considerable amount of criticism for NOT hitting Mitt Romney on health care at Monday's debate -- after telegraphing that he would the day before by saying "ObamneyCare" -- Tim Pawlenty has attacked Romney with this Tweet:

On seizing debate opportunity re: healthcare: Me 0, Mitt 1. On doing healthcare reform the right way as governor: Me 1, Mitt 0.

The Tweet comes after a Pawlenty spokeman told the New York Times that the campaign is taking a long view of the race. “We take the long view, which is the right view,” the spokesman told the paper. “Presidential campaigns are marathons. They are not won or lost in a night or a week or a month.”

*** UPDATE *** This isn't the first time that Pawlenty has issued an attack via Twitter. Last month, he said this about President Obama:

@BarackObama sorry to interrupt the European pub crawl, but what was your Medicare plan?

Rep. Anthony Weiner, D-N.Y., has resigned.

In a raucous New York press conference, the embattled New York congressman again apologized for the "embarassment" he caused with his salacious online interaction with several women over the past three years.

“I am here today to again apologize for the personal mistakes I have made and the embarrassment I have caused," he said in his brief remarks. "I make this apology to my neighbors and my constituents but I make it particularly to my wife Huma.”

“I had hoped to be able to continue the work that the citizens of my district elected me to do, to fight for the middle class and those struggling to make it," he said. "But unfortunately the distraction that I have created has made that impossible. So today I am announcing my resignation from Congress.”

Weiner was heckled throughout his remarks, with obscene commentary from bystanders a Howard Stern staff member often drowning out his words.

He appeared alone, without his wife Huma Abedin, and took no questions.

Ten days after admitting that he lied about sending sexually-charged text messages and photos to women he met online, Rep. Anthony Weiner, D-N.Y., is preparing to step down.

NBC News confirms that Weiner called Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chair Rep. Steve Israel last night to inform them he had decided to resign on Thursday.

The New York Times was the first to report that Weiner told friends of his plan to resign under mounting pressure from House Democratic leaders, who were poised Thursday to strip the New York congressman of his committee assignments.

Weiner has scheduled a 2pm ET news conference in New York.

At a regularly-scheduled press conference Thursday morning, Pelosi repeatedly declined to comment on the matter until after Weiner's afternoon event.

NBC reported shortly before the news broke that congressional staff members appeared to be packing up Weiner’s office this morning. Per NBC's Alex Moe, two staff members and two interns left the office with their belongings after turning off lights and locking the door.

Weiner resisted giving up his seat for more than a week, despite calls for his resignation from Pelosi and President Barack Obama.

But the Times reports that Weiner decided to step down after “having long discussions” with his wife, Huma Abedin, who just returned Tuesday from an overseas trip with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. News broke last week that Abedin is pregnant.

Republican House Speaker John Boehner told reporters at a press conference Thursday morning that Weiner had not informed him of his decision to resign, adding that the episode has been a "distraction."

Another headline from our NBC/WSJ poll: The House GOP honeymoon is more than over… Obama’s approval and percentage against Romney is at 50% or higher in every region but the South… What should concern Team Obama: The undecideds on the generic ballot aren’t happy people… Romney opens up big lead in GOP horserace, but you can also see how Romney is potentially vulnerable to a Tea Party challenge… Pawlenty hasn’t caught fire yet, but aides insist the race is a marathon… Obama’s approval on Libya takes a hit… Republican Leadership Conference (in New Orleans) and Netroots Nation (in Minneapolis) both begin today… And Romney’s in Florida and Georgia, while Santorum’s in New Hampshire.

*** The GOP honeymoon is over: By now, you've probably seen the headlines from the new NBC/WSJ poll: just 45% of GOP primary voters are satisfied with their presidential field, Obama is up six points on Romney, and the economy remains potentially perilous for the incumbent president. But another important story in our poll is how the Republican Party’s honeymoon after taking control of Congress in January is more than over. Consider: Congress’ approval rating is a dismal 18%, down four points from last month; it's not been this low since March 2010 (health- care month) The GOP’s fav/unfav is 30%-44%, compared with the Democratic Party’s 38%-39% score. What’s more, only 10% of respondents have a “great deal” or “quite a bit” of confidence in Congress, and majorities of ALL respondents (including Republicans) believe the House GOP has not brought much change. And the number thinking the GOP proposal to overhaul Medicare is a bad idea has increased nine points since April to 31%; just 22% believe it’s a good idea. The one piece of non-bad news for Republicans in the poll: They’re tied on the congressional ballot with Democrats.

*** Obama is at 50% or higher in every region except the South: As mentioned above, Obama leads Romney by six points (49%-43%) in a hypothetical general-election match up, despite all the grim economic numbers in the poll. But when you look at the Obama-vs.-Romney split by region, you see Obama’s lead over Romney is even stronger when thinking about the Electoral College. Obama is at 50% or higher against Romney in the Northeast (54%-36%), Midwest (50%-41%), and West (55%-40%). The one place that’s bolstering Romney’s numbers is in the South, where the Republican leads by a 49%-43% margin. Similarly, Obama’s overall job-approval is above 50% everywhere outside the South.

*** What should concern Obama: On the other hand, here’s what should concern Team Obama: On a generic presidential ballot, 45% say they would probably vote to re-elect the president, while 40% say they’d probably vote for the Republican candidate. But among the 13% who said it depends or are unsure, just 31% approve of Obama’s job, 76% think the country is headed in the wrong direction, and 80% believe the economy will get worse or stay the same over the next 12 months. Getting those last 5.1 percentage points is going to be one tough slog. Think about it: $1 billion will be spent to woo about five to six million Americans. 

*** Romney vs. the rest: Turning to the GOP horserace, Romney has opened up a sizable lead. In a 10-candidate trial heat, he gets 30%, while the next-highest Republican (Palin) gets 14%. And in a smaller six-candidate field, Romney’s percentage increases to 43%, while the next highest (Paul and Bachmann) are at 11%. But you can also see how Romney is potentially vulnerable to a Tea Party candidate. In the 10-candidate trial heat, the percentage that Palin, Herman Cain, and Rick Perry receive is a combined 34%, which is higher than Romney’s 30%. So the dynamic to watch over the next several months is whether more conservative Republicans coalesce around a single Romney challenger (Bachmann, Perry, someone else), or if this vote gets divided up.

*** Pawlenty still hasn’t caught fire: And what about Pawlenty, the Republican everyone originally thought would be the main alternative to Romney? According to the poll -- which was conducted mostly before Monday’s tough debate for the former Minnesota governor -- Pawlenty has seen his name ID increase from April to June, MSNBC.com’s Carrie Dann has noted. But he registers at just 4% in the 10-candidate GOP trial heat, behind even Paul (at 7%) and Gingrich (at 6%) and behind a NON-candidate: Rick Perry (8%). Of course, Pawlenty still has plenty of time. And a strong showing at the Ames Straw Poll and then in the Iowa caucuses could catapult him back into that main alternative position. But T-Paw hasn’t caught fire yet. By the way, the New York Times reports today that Pawlenty’s camp believes everyone will forget T-Paw’s debate performance on Monday. “We take the long view, which is the right view,” spokesman Alex Conant told the paper. “Presidential campaigns are marathons. They are not won or lost in a night or a week or a month.” Speaking of Iowa, Pawlenty is out with a new direct mail piece aimed at Iowa Republicans. The No. 1 item he highlights from his governorship: conservative judges.

*** Obama’s approval on Libya takes a hit: A final observation from the poll: President Obama isn’t only having trouble with Congress when it comes to the limited U.S. intervention in Libya. Per the poll, 46% approve of the president’s handling of the situation there, which is down eight points from April. By comparison, 36% disapprove. But a majority (51%) believes the U.S. should stay involved in Libya until Khaddafy is ousted.

*** Republican Leadership Conference and Netroots Nation begin today: The three-day Republican Leadership Conference cattle call begins today in New Orleans. Speaking today: Gary Johnson (at 4:10 pm ET) and Gingrich (7:25 pm ET). Speaking tomorrow: Huntsman, Cain, Paul, Bachmann, and Santorum. And on Saturday: Rick Perry. The straw poll results also come out on Saturday. Meanwhile, in Minnesota, the liberal Netroots Nation begins.

*** On the 2012 trail: Elsewhere, Romney stumps in Tampa, FL and then raises money in Atlanta, GA… And Santorum is in New Hampshire.

Countdown to Iowa GOP straw poll: 58 days
Countdown to NV-2 special election: 89 days
Countdown to Election Day 2011: 145 days
Countdown to the Iowa caucuses: 235 days
* Note: When the IA caucuses take place depends on whether other states move up

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Time magazine sees the GOP race shaping up like the NCAA basketball tournament – with two brackets: the insiders vs. the outsiders.

“The ‘wimp factor’ — a label that was once applied with derision to George H.W. Bush — might be back to haunt the Republican Party,” The Hill writes. “Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty are the putative front-runners among the declared 2012 candidates. They both have many attributes. But neither man is liable to be confused with John Wayne.”

Here’s our take on the new NBC/WSJ poll: “[W]ith about eight months until the first GOP nominating contests, less than half of Republican primary voters — 45 percent — say they are satisfied with their current crop of presidential candidates, according to a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. That's substantially lower than the 73 percent of Republicans who were satisfied in the summer of 2007 (when the GOP candidates included John McCain, Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee), as well as the 68 percent who were satisfied in early 1996 (when Bob Dole won the GOP nomination).”

Here’s the Wall Street Journal’s: “Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has surged to a clear lead in the Republican race for the presidential nomination, but his party's attacks on President Barack Obama's economic stewardship have yet to shake the president's lead over the GOP... At the same time, rising anxieties over the economy continue to erode the political environment for the president, pointing to a tight re-election fight."

BACHMANN: The Atlantic’s Joshua Green writes, “Bachmann has always seemed limited by the same qualities that make her irresistible to a certain kind of conservative. But on Monday night, she displayed a broader appeal. From her very first answer, which she used to declare her presidential candidacy, Bachmann sounded not only cogent but often convincing… Bachmann's history of slip-ups and strange claims makes it a little hard to believe that the woman who shone in the debate is here for the duration. But Republicans are yearning to be excited. They'll make allowances. If Bachmann can keep it together a little longer, this may not be the last surprise she offers.”

On FOX last night, Sean Hannity asked Bachmann if she feels the current primary will come down to a battle between establishment candidates and Tea Party ones? Her answer, per NBC’s Lauren Selsky: "Well, people really do care about this country, that's the good news. One thing I've always done is try to put principle over party. I'm proud to be a Republican, very proud. But I also put principle above that, and the marvelous thing about the Tea Party is the fact it is made up of a broad-based coalition of Democrats and independents and Libertarians and people who've never been political at all. People mistakenly think the Tea Party is the right wing of Republican Party. It's a broad coalition of people who love the United States of America and want the country to do well for their children too and they're very nervous about that right now."

CAIN: Politico’s Simon writes, “I don’t know if Monday’s debate will be quickly forgotten, replaced in our memories by a jumble of other debates, but I am going to remember it as the debate in which the entire Republican field to date refused to speak out for Muslim-Americans. They refused to speak out for the ones fighting for America in our armed forces, for the ones serving in Congress and for the ones living peaceful, productive and, yes, American lives. The silence of these candidates was an act of cowardice.”

GIULIANI: “Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani held meetings with two Republican heavyweights in New York Wednesday in an attempt to gauge support ahead of a potential 2012 campaign,” the New York Post writes. “Giuliani, 67, held separate meetings with two allies -- Texas Gov. Rick Perry and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie in Manhattan.”

HUNTSMAN: “Add Mary Kaye Huntsman to the list of active spouses in the race for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination,” the Boston Globe writes. “She sent out an email this morning urging readers to sign up to watch her husband, former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman, announce for president next week.”

The video accompanying the email was, um, something else.

PAWLENTY: “Tim Pawlenty’s first campaign mailer is set to land in Iowa mailboxes on Thursday,” Politico writes. “Introducing himself to voters, Pawlenty gives a short rundown of his biography, from his hardscrabble upbringing to his record as Minnesota governor.”

The New York Times: “Tim Pawlenty’s performance in Monday night’s debate was roundly panned after the former Minnesota governor appeared overly reluctant to press earlier attacks against his Republican rival, Mitt Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts. But Mr. Pawlenty and his senior aides take comfort in the fact that such moments, while important, can be overcome, especially when they take place this early in the rapid-paced, Twitter-fueled presidential campaign season.”

SANTORUM: “Ex-U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum (R., Pa.) has quit his post as a member of the board of directors of Universal Health Services Inc., the King of Prussia, for-profit hospital chain that relies on taxpayer-funded programs for more than one-third of its revenue, "as a result of his recent and formal announcement" that he's running for president of the United States, Universal said Wednesday,” The Philadelphia Inquirer reports. “Santorum is stepping away from a post that paid him $168,000 in cash and stock last year for attending board and compensation committee meetings.”

ROMNEY: “Mitt Romney, during a debate Monday night, appeared much more open to withdrawing troops from Afghanistan than he had been when he was in the war-torn country this winter. The stance irked some hawkish Republicans who worry that Romney and other candidates advocating withdrawal are abandoning their party orthodoxy,” the Boston Globe writes.

“House Republicans wary of the Obama administration's Aug. 2 deadline for raising the debt ceiling think they have support for their skepticism from a surprising source — former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan,” Roll Call writes. “Greenspan met with a small group of House Republican Policy Committee members Monday afternoon. Republican sources familiar with the meeting said their takeaway from Greenspan's presentation was that the administration has more wiggle room than it is letting on if a final deal on raising the $14.3 trillion debt ceiling is not reached by the proposed deadline.”

“A series of policy battles that have broken out among House Republicans poses a significant challenge to Speaker John Boehner’s (R-Ohio) effort to unify his troops on a bill raising the nation’s debt ceiling,” The Hill adds. “In recent weeks, intra-party skirmishes have emerged on a range of issues, including patent reform and a proposed tax holiday.”

“Representative Gabrielle Giffords of Arizona was released from a Houston hospital yesterday, five months after being shot in the head during a political event,” AP reports.

“[C]ongressional leaders saw their wealth climb last year as the economy struggled to pull out of a recession while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained more than 1,100 points,” The Hill writes. Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s wealth grew 62% and John Boehner remained a multimillionaire.

“Senator John Kerry reported more holdings in media companies than any other member of Congress, including a $1.75 million stake in Comcast, which owns NBC, and a $600,000 stake in News Corp, which owns Fox News, according to an analysis released today,” the Boston Globe writes. “The holdings, which Kerry says belong to his wife, were listed on financial disclosure forms analyzed by the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics. In all, 59 federal lawmakers have media interests worth between $3.8 million and $7.7 million, with the average individual reporting holdings ranging from $65,000 to $131,000. The forms require lawmakers to list ranges rather than exact dollar amounts.”

The Boston Globe finds from Scott Brown’s financial disclosure that he made $700,000 for his autobiography.

“The Obama administration argued Wednesday that its nearly three-month-old military involvement in Libya does not require congressional approval because of the supporting role most U.S. forces are playing there, a position that puts it at odds with some Republican leaders and the antiwar wing of its own party,” the Washington Post reports. “The White House reasoning, included in a 32-page report to Congress, is the administration’s first detailed response to complaints from lawmakers of both parties, who say President Obama has exceeded his authority as commander in chief by waging war in Libya without congressional authorization.”

The New York Times: “In contending that the limited American role did not oblige the administration to ask for authorization under the War Powers Resolution, the report asserted that ‘U.S. operations do not involve sustained fighting or active exchanges of fire with hostile forces, nor do they involve U.S. ground troops.’ Still, the White House acknowledged, the operation has cost the Pentagon $716 million in its first two months and will have cost $1.1 billion by September at the current scale of operations.”

A Quinnipiac poll in Pennsylvania shows President Obama beating Mitt Romney 47%-40%. Obama’s approval in the state is now 48%-48%, up from 42%-53% in April. The reason: Independents have shifted dramatically. The now approve of his job 48%-47%.

NEVADA: “Nevada Rep. Shelley Berkley (D) leads appointed Sen. Dean Heller (R) by 5 points in a Senate poll released Tuesday by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and pollster Mark Mellman,” Roll Call writes. “Berkley took 42 percent to Heller’s 37 percent, showing the likely nominees in a tight battle that will continue for the next 17 months. A Mellman Group poll in March found Berkley leading 42 percent to 38 percent.”

UTAH: The Daily Caller reports, "FreedomWorks PAC plans to launch a 'Retire Orrin Hatch' campaign at the Utah Republican Convention this Saturday, the group’s first major move of the 2012 congressional cycle."

“Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-Utah) said Sen. Orrin Hatch (R) has probably been in office long enough but stopped short of saying he will definitely challenge the six-term incumbent,” Roll Call writes. “‘He’s asking voters to keep him there for 42 contiguous years, which I don’t know that that’s necessarily a healthy thing,’ Chaffetz said Tuesday on Hugh Hewitt’s radio show.”

Though congressional members taking part in today's ongoing deficit-reduction talks with Vice President Joe Biden said they are increasingly optimistic that compromise can be reached, the ranking Democrat on the House Financial Services Committee says the influence of the Tea Party is endangering the chance for a deal.
 
Congressman Barney Frank, in an interview with Andrea Mitchell on MSNBC, said Tea Party favorite Michele Bachmann -- a frequent critic of his -- is a "dominant figure in the House of Representatives."
 
Frank continued, "I think half of the Republicans in the House agree with her. The other half are afraid of losing the primary to somebody who agrees with her."
 
Bachmann has said she will not vote to raise the debt limit any under circumstance.
 
Congressman Frank said on "Andrea Mitchell Reports" that Bachmann's "no" vote and her influence over other members of the House makes him concerned a compromise will not be reached.
 
"A deep unrealism has set in... People [like Bachmann] do not understand the damage this could do to the economy."
 
The Massachusetts congressman said other members of Congress share the "view that you can cut Social Security and Medicare and domestic programs, do nothing about taxing the very wealthy and most importantly do nothing about the military. These are people who want to stay in Iraq."
 
According to Frank, the military budget has been a non-negotiable subject for "very conservative Republicans."

"Some of us tried to make some reasonable reductions in the military budget and they rejected that."

Here's another tease from our new NBC/WSJ poll: In a straight up-or-down question on whether the debt ceiling should be increased or not, a plurality of 39 percent say it shouldn't be raised, while 28 percent say it should.

But those numbers change when the language is altered: 46 percent say the debt ceiling SHOULD be raised when told that failing to do so would stop Social Security and military payments and would potentially hurt the economy.

By comparison, 42 percent said the debt ceiling SHOULD NOT be raised when told that doing it would increase spending and make it harder to reduce the deficit.

The full NBC/WSJ poll will be released at 6:30 pm ET.

Soon-to-be declared presidential candidate Jon Huntsman wasn’t on the stage on Monday when some of his 2012 rivals responded to questions about US military operations overseas, but the former Utah governor is making a splash today with his call for an end to American involvement in Libya and Afghanistan.

In an exclusive interview with Esquire - excerpts of which were released today - the former Utah governor says the prolonged US involvement in Afghanistan doesn’t “serve our strategic interests” and says of the intervention in Libya “we just can’t afford it.”

From Esquire:

"If you can't define a winning exit strategy for the American people, where we somehow come out ahead, then we're wasting our money, and we're wasting our strategic resources," Huntsman told Esquire as part of a long profile in its August issue. "It's a tribal state, and it always will be. Whether we like it or not, whenever we withdraw from Afghanistan, whether it's now or years from now, we'll have an incendiary situation... Should we stay and play traffic cop? I don't think that serves our strategic interests."

Huntsman also said that he wouldn't have intervened in Libya - "We just can't afford it" - and would seek to make serious cuts in the military's budget. "If you can't find anything there to cut, you're not looking hard enough."

Political junkies will also relish some juicy quotes in the piece from former-McCain-adviser-turned-Huntsman-right-hand John Weaver, who calls the current GOP field “the weakest since 1940.”

Weaver also has choice words for former Gov. Mitt Romney (“What version are we on now? Mitt 5.0? 6.0?”) and former Gov. Tim Pawlenty (“there's nothing worse than seeing a nice guy pretend that he's angry.”)

Read the post from Chris Jones’ piece here.

From NBC's Sylvie Stein
Once again, the overlapping war-making roles of Congress and the president have come into conflict – this time over U.S. operations in Libya.

Yesterday afternoon, House Speaker John Boehner sent a letter to President Obama demanding that he provide a cogent explanation for committing troops to Libya no later than Friday. If Obama continues involvement in NATO operations and does not comply with this deadline, he will be in violation of the War Powers Resolution, Boehner warns.

Sunday will be the 90^th day since Obama notified Congress of U.S. military deployment to enforce a no-fly zone over Libya, designed to protect the rebel National Transitional Council (NTC) – now recognized by fourteen countries as the legitimate government of Libya – fighting Muammar Qaddafi’s regime. U.S. forces initiated the no-fly zone, with Obama saying he felt compelled to act because Qaddafi threatened to “show no mercy” to his own citizens who opposed him.

“The Constitution requires the president to ‘take care that the laws be faithfully executed,’ and one of those laws is the War Powers Resolution, which requires an approving action by Congress or withdrawal within 90 days from the notification of a military operation,” Boehner said in the letter.

Though the White House has obeyed the law by notifying Congress of the initial involvement in Libya, and by reporting – at more than ten hearing and thirty briefings – the status of U.S. commitment, the Obama administration never sought congressional approval.

“We are in the final stages of preparing extensive information for the House and Senate that will address a whole host of issues about our ongoing efforts in Libya,” White House National Security Council spokesman Tommy Vietor said Tuesday. He added that the White House will also explain what the Obama administration views as legal grounds for continuing operations in Libya without authorization from Congress.

Meanwhile, Senator John McCain advised against undermining Obama in what could be a crucial moment in expelling Qaddafi.

“Let’s be very careful that the Congress does not say something… that would encourage Qaddafi to believe that somehow we have lost our commitment to him leaving office,” McCain said.