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  • Some fast facts on shutdowns past

    Since the record-breaking 21-day government shutdown at the end of 1995, the analysts at the Congressional Research Service -- the team of analysts that provides in-depth studies on policy and legal issues for  members and committees of Congress  --  have prepared a series of reports (here and here) about the causes and effects of shutdowns past.

    We read them so that you don’t have to.

    Here’s some quick facts about shutdowns in the past and what their effects have been.

    • Before the Carter Administration, federal agencies generally kept their doors open even if Congress had failed to appropriate funds for them. But in 1980, a series of opinions by Attorney General Benjamin Civiletti directed that agency heads must suspend all operations not tied to “the safety of human life or the protection of property” in the event of a funding gap.
    • Other than “essential” employees (see below), some federal employees who are exempted from furlough in the event of a shutdown are: members of Congress, the president, and presidential appointees.
    • There have been 17 funding gaps since 1977, ranging in length from one day to three weeks. Those shutdowns totaled 109 days.
    • Between fiscal year 1977 and 1980 (during Jimmy Carter’s presidency) there were six shutdowns that together totaled 66 days.
    • The longest funding gap since 1977 was a 21 day shutdown in late 1995/ early 1996 after a budget showdown between a Republican-led Congress and the Clinton White House.
    • During that shutdown, 368 National Park Service sites were closed and toxic waste clean-ups efforts at 609 sites were stopped.
    • An estimated 284,000 federal employees were furloughed during the three-week funding gap. About 475,000 “essential” employees continued to work without receiving paychecks. (They later received back pay.)
    • During a five-day shutdown earlier that year, about 800,000 federal employees were furloughed.
    • About 20% of Washington D.C. area contracts took a financial hit as a result of the 1995/6 shutdowns, with about $3.7 billion of independent contractor business affected.

    So, who’s “essential”? While individual agencies and congressional offices define which of their employees are “essential” and “non-essential,” they make those determinations based upon a commonly-cited memo published by the Office of Management and Budget in 1981.

    According to that memorandum, essential employees are classified as those:

    • providing for the national security, including the conduct of foreign relations essential to the national security or the safety of life and property
    • providing for benefit payments and the performance of contract obligations under no-year or multi-year or other funds remaining available for those purposes;
    • conducting essential activities to the extent that they protect life and property, including:

    — medical care of inpatients and emergency outpatient care;

    — activities essential to ensure continued public health and safety, including safe use of food, drugs, and hazardous materials;

    — continuance of air traffic control and other transportation safety functions and the protection of transport property;

    — border and coastal protection and surveillance;

    — protection of federal lands, buildings, waterways, equipment and other property owned by the United States;

    — care of prisoners and other persons in the custody of the United States;

    — law enforcement and criminal investigations;

    — emergency and disaster assistance;

    — activities that ensure production of power and maintenance of the power distribution system;

    — activities essential to the preservation of the essential elements of the money and banking system of the United States, including borrowing and tax collection activities of the Treasury; and

    — activities necessary to maintain protection of research property.

  • Backlash at the polls in Wisconsin

    AP

    Emma Collins, left, Elias Lyam, 14, and Eileen Collins watch early election results for Wisconsin Supreme Court candidate JoAnne Kloppenburg in Madison, Wis. on Tuesday. Kloppenburg faces incumbent Justice David Prosser.

    From NBC’s John Yang and Domenico Montanaro
    Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker wasn't on Tuesday's ballot, but he -- and his effort to limit the collective-bargaining rights for public workers -- may have been the big losers amid near-record, non-November turnout.

    In the only statewide race, which went from low-profile to a closely watched referendum on Walker and his controversial measure after protests roiled the state capitol, Supreme Court Justice David Prosser, a former Republican Speaker, is locked in a too-close-to-call battle with Assistant Attorney General JoAnne Kloppenburg, who has the backing of unions and liberal groups. With 99 percent of the state's precincts reporting, Prosser had a 585-vote lead out of more than 1.4 million ballots cast. A recount is likely.

    A Kloppenburg win would change a 4-3 conservative majority on the court into a 4-3 liberal majority.

    In the four-candidate February primary, before the controversy over the collective bargaining bill exploded, Prosser got 55 percent of the vote and Kloppenburg just 25 percent.

    Prosser addressed supporters at about 1:40 this morning, saying: "I've weathered the nuclear blast, and I'm still standing." Earlier, Kloppenburg told her supporters: "It's not over yet. We're still hopeful."

    And in Milwaukee County, Democrat Chris Abele, a political neophyte who runs his Boston family's philanthropy, trounced Jeff Stone, a veteran Republican state lawmaker, in a special election to replace Walker as County Executive, 61%-39%. Stone's two votes for the collective bargaining bill in the state Assembly were issues in the campaign.

    Kloppenburg appears to have benefited from a very high turnout, which rivaled the turnout in past April presidential primary elections -- 1,472,921 people turned out to vote in this election (736,878 for Prosser, 736,043 for Kloppenburg). That’s very close to the total number of people who turned out for the 2008 presidential primaries -- 1,498,068 and more than the hotly contested Democratic primary between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, where more than 1.1 million people voted.

    In the liberal bastion of Madison, officials said turnout was about 70 percent, with Kloppenburg winning 73 percent of the vote. In Eau Claire County, turnout was so heavy that polling places ran out of machine-readable ballots and had to use hand-counted ballots; the challenger won 58 percent. In left-leaning Milwaukee County, where turnout was also driven by the county executive's race, she won 57 percent of the vote.

    In the race for Milwaukee County Executive, 222,761 people turned out to vote (134,848 for Abele; 87,913 for Stone). That’s almost as many people who turned out for the 2008 presidential primaries, when a total of 251,942 people voted in Milwaukee County -- and more than the Obama-Clinton primary, when 205,931 people voted.

    While the turnout may not be a record, the Supreme Court race did set a record for the amount of money spent by special interest groups: $3.5 million, according to the Brennan Center for Justice at New York University. The top spender was the liberal Greater Wisconsin Committee which spent $1.4 million backing Kloppenburg.

    Wisconsin does not have automatic recounts. A candidate has three business days after the last county reports its official vote count--usually the Monday or Tuesday after Election Day -- to request a recount. They're free to campaigns as long as the margin between the candidates is less than 0.5%.

  • Bachmann 'doubts' shutdown, won't back budget compromise

    Conservative Rep. Michele Bachmann, the founder of the House Tea Party Caucus and a potential 2012 presidential candidate, said Wednesday that she “doubts” the government will shut down at the end of this week due to a budget impasse but that she cannot support current versions of compromise legislation that would avert a federal funding gap.

    “I firmly believe that by Friday a deal will be made,” she said on MSNBC’s The Daily Rundown. “I doubt that we’ll see a government shutdown in the final analysis.”

    The Minnesota lawmaker repeated a common GOP charge that top Democrats are rooting for a shutdown in hopes of pinning unpopular outcomes on conservative lawmakers.

    But while Bachmann pointed the finger at those on the other side of the aisle for eschewing compromise, she also said that she will not support a suggested deal that would cut between $33 billion and $40 billion in federal spending.

    “I cannot vote for the current compromise that we’re looking at,” she said. “I don’t think it is sufficient, because, primarily, it doesn’t include the defunding of Obamacare.”

    Bachmann and other Tea Party activists have argued that a House-passed package of $61 billion in cuts should be considered a minimum starting point for much deeper cuts.

    That number, she said Wednesday, is already a “tremendous compromise” that resulted from some Republicans’ initial demands that the FY11 budget cuts total $100 billion.

    “The Republicans have already compromised,” she said.

  • First Thoughts: The importance of quitting while you're ahead

    If Wisconsin taught us anything, it was this: quit while you’re ahead… And the lesson applies to congressional Republicans: They have already won the congressional spending fight… Schumer said on “TODAY” there’s a “glimmer of hope” that a government shutdown gets avoided… NBC/WSJ poll day… In the Walker referendums in Wisconsin, Dems won the Milwaukee County executive race (Walker’s old job), while the state Supreme Court race is too close to call… High turnout in Wisconsin… Rick Scott’s approval rating nosedives in FL… Tim Kaine meets the press… And David Gregory’s chat with Rick Santorum.

    From NBC's Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
    *** The importance of quitting while you’re ahead… : If congressional Republicans should have learned any lesson from the budget showdown in Wisconsin, it was this: quit while you’re ahead. Despite being offered concession after concession on the budget -- as long as he didn’t touch collective-bargaining rights for public employees -- Gov. Scott Walker (R) went big for everything, including the collective bargaining rights. And he’s since paid a steep political price, even though the legislation ultimately passed. Walker’s poll numbers have plummeted. The legislation is now locked up in the courts. The Democratic opposition remains fired up (see last night’s elections in the state; more on them below). And the state appears headed for a slew of recall elections this spring and summer. The political lesson from Wisconsin: If you’re offered 70%-80% of what you want and will look like a hero in accepting the deal, take it. But if you go for everything, be prepared for the backlash.  

    *** … because Republicans have already won: So if you’re the congressional Tea Party caucus, quitting when you’re winning isn’t such a bad outcome. And no matter is the eventual spending cut is $33 billion, $35 billion, or higher, congressional Republicans have already won. It was a point that Senate Republicans quietly are making to us. And it’s a point that President Obama made yesterday. “We are now closer than we have ever been to getting an agreement. There’s no reason why we should not get an agreement,” Obama stated. “As I said before, we have now matched the number that the speaker originally sought.” Folks, they are divided over .83% of the budget. Yes, that decimal point BEFORE the 83 is correct.

    *** A “glimmer of hope”: On “TODAY” this morning, Democratic Sen. Chuck Schumer said that tonight is really the deadline to avoid a government shutdown. And he said there’s a “glimmer of hope” that an agreement gets reached. When pressed where that hope is coming from, Schumer replied it’s potential progress not over the dollar amount, but rather where the cuts would come from. Overnight, we've been hearing similar chatter. There was doom and gloom about a shutdown at 4:00 pm ET yesterday; by 7:00 pm, one could sense a desire to have cooler heads prevail. But that doesn't mean it's happened just yet!

    *** NBC/WSJ poll day! Whom would the American public blame if there’s a government shutdown? How do Americans view Obama and the GOP? What are their thoughts on the early 2012 presidential race? Beginning at 6:30 pm ET, tune into NBC “Nightly News” or click on to MSNBC.com for the answers from our latest NBC/WSJ poll.

    *** The Walker referendums: In the two Wisconsin races that were viewed by some as referendums on Gov. Walker, Democrats won one of them, and the other is too close to call (which actually is already a "victory" for Dems). In the contest to replace Walker as Milwaukee County executive, nonpartisan (but Dem-leaning) Chris Abele trounced Republican Jeff Stone. Abele aired a TV ad comparing Stone to Walker (Stone was quoted as saying that he and Walker share “similar aspirations,” while Walker had praised Stone). And in the higher-profile race for state Supreme Court, conservative incumbent David Prosser and liberal challenger JoAnne Kloppenburg remained essentially deadlocked. With 99% of the state's precincts reporting, per NBC’s John Yang, Prosser had a 585-vote lead out of more than 1.4 million ballots cast. A recount is likely.

    *** Wisconsin’s high turnout: Yet no matter the eventual outcome of the Prosser-Kloppenburg race, Democrats appear to have overperformed in these two contests. Indeed, Yang notes that Kloppenburg seems to have benefited from a very high turnout. In the liberal bastion of Madison, officials said turnout was about 70%, with Kloppenburg winning 73% of the vote there. In Eau Claire County -- where turnout was so heavy that polling places ran out of machine-readable ballots and had to use hand-counted ballots -- she won 58%. And in left-leaning Milwaukee County, where turnout was also driven by the county executive's race, Kloppenburg won 57% of the vote. Bottom line: Walker has polarized the state and could be a potential problem with swing voters.

    *** Rick Scott’s approval rating nosedives: Speaking of polarizing, a new Quinnipiac poll shows that Gov. Rick Scott’s (R) approval rating has nosedived, from 35%-22% in February to 35%-48% now. We’ve said this before and we’ll say it again: The reason why what’s happening with the new hard-charging GOP governors in Florida, Ohio, and Wisconsin is important is that these three states will be important presidential battlegrounds in 2012. 

    *** Kaine meets the press; Wasserman Schultz the new DNC chair: One day after officially announcing his entry into Virginia’s Senate race, Tim Kaine will speak to the press today in Richmond, VA. After delivering a previously scheduled speech on the economy at the University of Richmond Law School at 9:00 am ET, Kaine meets with reporters at the foot of the Capitol Square at 11:00 am. And in replacing Kaine, President Obama last night tapped Debbie Wasserman Schultz as DNC chair, choosing her over ex-Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland and Illinois Sen. Dick Durbin. When word spread Strickland was being considered, an intense lobbying campaign by many women inside and out of the DNC began on behalf of DWS. But she had a few other attributes going for her: 1) her comfort raising money; 2) reliable messenger; and 3) she’s considered a team player (see her transition from Clinton surrogate to Obama surrogate after the '08 primary). The one real negative and concern some had with the idea of DWS is the fact she's in the House Democratic caucus, and those folks, a few people argued to us, are not always as in tune with the swing voter as the White House would like them to be.

    *** 2012 watch: Michele Bachmann will be on "Daily Rundown" at 9:00 am on MSNBC and then speaks at an Americans for Prosperity rally on Capitol Hill at noon ET; Mike Huckabee appears on The Daily Show with Jon Stewart; and Rick Santorum yesterday sat down with NBC’s David Gregory for Meet the Press’ “Press Pass.”

    Countdown to continuing resolution’s expiration: 2 days
    Countdown to NY-26 special election: 48 days
    Countdown to Iowa GOP straw poll: 128 days
    Countdown to Election Day 2011: 216 days
    Countdown to the Iowa caucuses: 306 days
    * Note: When the IA caucuses take place depends on whether other states move up

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  • Congress: Shutdown looms

    “A White House push for a budget deal yesterday devolved into an exchange of accusations over spending priorities and political gamesmanship, increasing the odds of a partial government shutdown on Friday,” the Boston Globe reports.

    Roll Call: “Democratic and Republican leaders scrambled late Tuesday to salvage their weeks-long negotiations over a long-term spending bill after talks collapsed in an exchange of partisan fireworks.”

    The New York Times on the numbers: "While Appropriations Committee aides have been assembling legislation based on $33 billion in cuts, that proposal has not gone over well with many House Republicans, who have already approved $61 billion in spending reductions for this year and do not appear to want to bend far from that figure. Several officials familiar with the morning session at the White House said Mr. Boehner had indicated that he could potentially sell spending cuts of about $40 billion to more of his members — a $7 billion increase from what Democrats viewed as their earlier agreement with the speaker."

    Congressional watcher Norm Ornstein writes, “In many ways, the most interesting dynamic right now is that surrounding Speaker John Boehner, who has in the past been a first-rate legislator, knows how the legislative process works and knows the risks of a shutdown — to the economy and to his party — are high.” And, he says, Republicans eventually will have to defend their budget.

    If there is a government shutdown, what closes and what stays open? Per NBC's Kevin Hurd, Reagan OMB Director David A. Stockman issued a memorandum in 1981 to heads of executive agencies detailing examples of activities that should be exempted from shutting down. The memo, which was included in a Congressional Research Service analysis this February, was used in the 1995-1996 shutdown. It reads:

    Conduct essential activities to the extent that they protect life and property, including:

    a. Medical care of inpatients and emergency outpatient care;
    b. Activities essential to ensure continued public health and safety, including safe use of food and drugs and safe use of hazardous materials;
    c. The continuance of air traffic control and other transportation safety functions and the protection of transport property;
    d. Border and coastal protection and surveillance;
    e. Protection of Federal lands, buildings, waterways, equipment and other property owned by the United States;
    f. Care of prisoners and other persons in the custody of the United States;
    g. Law enforcement and criminal investigations;
    h. Emergency and disaster assistance;
    i. Activities essential to the preservation of the essential elements of the money and banking system of the United States, including borrowing and tax collection activities of the Treasury;
    j. Activities that ensure production of power and maintenance of the power distribution system; and
    k. Activities necessary to maintain protection of research property.

    The Boston Globe also looks at who would keep working and who might not if there’s a government shutdown.

    The Boston Globe breaks down what exactly is in Rep. Paul Ryan’s (R-WI) budget proposal, including Medicare: “Wipes out funding for Obama’s health care initiative and changes the status of Medicare as an open-ended entitlement. People now 54 and younger would upon retirement get a fixed amount from the federal government to buy insurance from a range of regulated private plans. The payment would go directly to the health insurance plan. Starting in 2022, the eligibility age for Medicare, now 65, would be gradually increased until it reaches 67 in 2033. Seniors already on Medicare and people within 10 years of retirement would be able to go into the traditional program as it exists today.”

    The New York Daily News says Ryan “is grabbing the third rail of American politics with both hands… But it does reframe the debate in Washington, with Republicans showing they're willing to propose politically risky cuts to keep the deficit from spiraling out of control.”

    The New York Times on the proposal: “By its mix of deep cuts in taxes and domestic spending, and its shrinkage of the American safety net, the plan sets the conservative parameter of the debate over the nation’s budget priorities further to the right than at any time since the modern federal government began taking shape nearly eight decades ago.”

    “Democrats and Republicans wasted no time on Tuesday turning House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan’s budget plan into a partisan rallying point,” Roll Call writes.

    For all the talk of Ryan’s budget, don’t forget about the “Gang of Six,” The Hill reminds.

    “All but a dozen Senate Democrats joined a united Senate GOP Conference on Tuesday in voting 87-12 to send Obama the House-passed version of a bill to repeal a requirement that companies to file a 1099 form with the IRS every time they conduct $600 worth of business with a vendor,” Roll Call writes.

  • Obama agenda: Back to New York

    The New York Daily News: “President Obama is making his second visit to the city in as many weeks - and is calling upon an unlikely ally to shore up the support of his political base. Obama will be speaking Wednesday for the first time as commander in chief at the annual convention of the National Action Network and standing with its founder, the Rev. Al Sharpton - whom the President largely ignored before his 2008 election.”

    “Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner told lawmakers Tuesday that the administration is crafting a corporate tax reform plan that would eliminate some tax preferences in exchange for a lower corporate tax rate,” The Hill reports. “Geithner had previously said that he wants the administration and Congress to work together on overhauling the corporate tax code, but this appeared to be the first time he has mentioned an administration reform proposal.” 

    Obama will do a Facebook town hall from Facebook’s headquarters April 20.

    Rahm Emanuel won't take over as mayor for another month, but he's already wielding his influence, NBC’s John Yang reports. He had a pretty good day in Tuesday's Chicago City Council run-off elections: His candidates won in seven of the nine races he publicly got involved in. His big win was the defeat of 83-year-old Bernard Stone, the second-longest serving member of the council, by challenger Debra Silverstein, an accountant who's married to an influential state senator. Emanuel spent the last weekend of the campaign going door-to-door with Silverstein.

  • Badger state showdown: Too close to call

    “Justice David Prosser clung to a narrow lead over Assistant Attorney General JoAnne Kloppenburg in the state Supreme Court race early Wednesday, after a hard-fought campaign dominated by political forces and outside interest groups,” the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel writes. “But even with 99% of the vote counted, fewer than 600 votes - about 0.04% of ballots - separated the candidates. And The Associated Press said early Wednesday that the race was too close to call and that it would take hours or most of the day to get a final tally.”

    “That close margin had political insiders from both sides talking about the possibility of a recount, which Wisconsin has avoided in statewide races in recent decades. Any recount could be followed by lawsuits - litigation that potentially would be decided by the high court.”

    The paper makes this additional point: "In the contest for a 10-year term, Kloppenburg is trying to accomplish the rare feat of unseating a sitting justice. Michael Gableman defeated then-Justice Louis Butler in 2008, but before that it had been 41 years since an incumbent lost a race for a high court seat. Unlike Butler, who was appointed to the post, Prosser was elected to his current term."

    In the other race -- for Gov. Scott Walker’s old job as Milwaukee County executive -- “Chris Abele - a 44-year-old philanthropist, scion of a wealthy Boston family and political neophyte - handily defeated state Rep. Jeff Stone (R-Greendale),” the Journal Sentinel also reports.

    More: “Abele campaigned with $1 million of his own money as someone with fresh ideas to tackle the county's nagging financial problems. Though light on specifics, Abele outlined an approach that emphasizes efficiency moves. He put much of his advertising firepower into trying to fuse Stone with Gov. Scott Walker and his controversial push to end most collective bargaining for public employees.”

    The numbers: Per AP, Abele got 134,848; Stone 87,913.

  • 2012: Treading gingerly on Ryan’s plan

    “Mindful of the political risks, Republican presidential hopefuls treaded gingerly — or ducked — as House Republicans unveiled a budget plan that would slash federal spending by about $5 trillion over 10 years while revamping health programs for the elderly and poor,” the Los Angeles Times writes. “Several, including former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, praised the budget's sponsor, Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan, but stopped short of fully endorsing the blueprint and didn't indicate whether they backed the massive changes in Medicare and Medicaid. Others were silent on the plan, including two Republicans who rarely pass up opportunities to inject themselves into the latest national debate: former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann.”

    “A mating dance is underway between the tea party and the likely 2012 Republican presidential candidates, with tea party organizers pushing the candidates and their aides to take hard-line positions on cutting the government and reducing taxes in return for possible support,” Politico writes.

    BACHMANN: Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad compared Michele Bachmann’s star power to that of Sarah Palin’s: “If Congresswoman Bachmann gets in, she has the potential to appeal to a lot of people who might have gone for Governor Palin,” Branstad said Monday, according to The State Column. “Imagine if they both got in. That could make it really interesting.”

    DANIELS: We know state leaders are urging everyone to ‘take a haircut,’ but not like this: On Monday, Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels shaved the beard of Republican state Rep. Milo Smith, who grew it out during the five weeks that Democrats boycotted the House and went to Illinois to protest Republican measures. Smith was asked to hold off shaving so that legislators could auction off the rights to save his beard for charity. Two constituents offered $1,000 if Daniels did the honors, the Chicago Tribune reports.

    GINGRICH: Newt Gingrich will speak at the 9th District Republican Party of Georgia Convention in Cumming, Georgia on April 16, the Dalton Daily Citizen writes.

    HUCKABEE: Mike Huckabee criticized news outlets for linking to a Mother Jones Magazine story that said Huckabee’s administration destroyed all of his records when the former Arkansas governor launched his 2008 presidential bid. “’What I don't understand is how the supposed 'legitimate' press is used for pawns by Mother Jones, Media Matters, and other partisan organizations and how they could use material from sources like that without doing their own fact checking,’” Huckabee said according to US News.

    HUNTSMAN: Politico’s Ben Smith recalls an interview with Jani Iwamoto, a Democratic member of the Salt Lake County Council who went to high school with Jon Huntsman, whose thoughts toward him reflect the bipartisan appeal he still has in his home state – as compared to former governors like Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty who have largely renounced positions that home-state Democrats gravitated towards. “Iwamoto's 11-year old daughter recently asked her whose sign they would put up in their yard if Obama faces off against Huntsman in 2012. ‘I think we'd have to put up both,’ she said.”

    Jon Huntsman will make his first appearance in New Hampshire on May 21, the New Hampshire Union-Leader writes, when he is the graduation speaker at Southern New Hampshire University. “‘We are very excited about it,’ said university spokesman Gregg Mazzola, who noted than then-Sen. Barack Obama was the SNHU commencement speaker in 2007.”

    PAUL: Ron Paul will decide on his bid for president in a month.

    PAWLENTY: Tim Pawlenty praised Rep. Paul Ryan for releasing his budget proposal yesterday, The Hill writes. He did not touch on the merits of the budget itself, but rather said the issue was “going to be debated for several months to come” and that the more immediate concern is the vote to raise the debt ceiling.

    Pawlenty became the third presidential hopeful to dine at New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie’s mansion last Thursday, the AP writes.

    ROMNEY: “Mitt Romney’s Free and Strong America PAC has donated $45,000 to the Republican Party and the party’s House and Senate campaign committees,” the Washington Post’s Cillizza notes. “I believe that by electing Republicans, we will make America strong and prosperous again,” Romney said in a statement.

    SANTORUM: Santorum sat down for an NBC’s Meet the Press “Press Pass” Web segment and said the slow start to the 2012 campaign has been a "blessing" to him because it's given him time to consult with his family (he has seven children, ages 2-19) and make his decision about whether or not to enter the race. "When the favorite is, sort of, not doing anything," he said, "it creates a vacuum and most everybody else in the race is pretty far down and so any one person entering the race doesn't make the race go. The race goes when the bigger players decide to get in. And since they haven't it's created a vacuum that so far, collectively, no one's been able to fill." Watch the full interview here. Santorum also talks about the budget, how best for Republicans to beat Obama in 2012, and the 2011 NHL playoffs (hint: he likes the Penguins).

    Former Sen. Rick Santorum will make his first visit of the cycle to Nevada on April 7th, where he’ll headline a fundraiser for the Washoe County Republican Party, CNN reports.

    Santorum will speak in Cedar Rapids, Iowa on April 26th, the second participant in “the chairman’s series” of discussions hosted by state Republican chairman Matt Strawn, the Des Moines Register reports.

    He’ll also appear at the Family Institute of Connecticut’s September banquet, the Hartford Courant reports. 

    TRUMP: An adviser of Donald Trump’s says the real-estate mogul’s scheduled appearance at an April 15 Tea Party rally in Florida is “a recognition” of the fact that Florida may move its primary date earlier in the cycle, Politico writes.

  • Walker orders lobbyist's son to return to previous job

    From NBC's John Yang
    Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) has ordered that the son of a prominent lobbyist be returned to an earlier, lower-paying state job.

    On Monday, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reported that Brian Deschane, 27, was hired in January for a $62,728-a-year management job in the state Department of Regulation and Licensing and then moved a month later to the Commerce Department to a job that paid $85,000 -- a 26% raise.

    On Tuesday, Walker "directed his administration to move in another direction" after he "learned the details of this agency staffing decision," according to a statement from his office.

    Deschane has no college degree and two convictions for drunk driving. His father is Jerry Deschane, the longtime lobbyist for the Wisconsin Builders Association. The trade group's political action committee was one of the top five donors to Walker's campaign, giving $29,000, and members of the group gave at least another $92,000.

  • Wasserman Schultz selected as DNC chair

    From Chuck Todd, Domenico Montanaro, and Mark Murray
    Florida Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz has been selected as the new chair of the Democratic National Committee, Democratic sources tell NBC News. 

    Wasserman Schultz will not give up her House seat. Former Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT) also served concurrently as DNC chair and as a U.S. Senator.

    Wasserman Schultz replaces outgoing DNC Chair Tim Kaine, who announced today he is running for the open U.S. Senate seat in Virginia.

    CORRECTION: An earlier version of this post incorrectly stated that Wasserman Schultz would have been the first woman to run either party. In fact, there were women that ran both the RNC and the DNC -- Mary Louise Smith ran the Republican National Committee from 1974 to 1977. Jean Westwood and Debra DeLee ran the DNC.

  • White House: Ryan plan fails the fairness 'test'

    White House Press Secretary Jay Carney released this statement on House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan's budget plan.

    In short, Carney said that while Obama agrees that the U.S. must reduce its long-term budget deficit, Ryan's plan -- by phasing out Medicare and turning Medicaid into a block grant -- doesn't do it fairly. 

    The President believes that dramatically reducing America’s long-term deficit is essential to growing our economy and winning the future. Today, Congressman Ryan laid out his vision for how to do that, and he is right that we cannot solve our fiscal challenge by focusing on the narrow slice of domestic spending that has occupied so much of our recent attention. But while we agree with his ultimate goal, we strongly disagree with his approach. Any plan to reduce our deficit must reflect the American values of fairness and shared sacrifice. Congressman Ryan’s plan fails this test. It cuts taxes for millionaires and special interests while placing a greater burden on seniors who depend on Medicare or live in nursing homes, families struggling with a child who has serious disabilities, workers who have lost their health care coverage, and students and their families who rely on Pell grants. The President believes there is a more balanced way to put America on a path to prosperity. But despite our differences, all of us – Democrats and Republicans – have an obligation to find common ground in a way that is true to our values and meets our responsibilities to the American people.

  • Ryan frames voter 'choice' on GOP budget

    From msnbc.com’s Carrie Dann: With the spotlight blazing onto the 73-page Republican 2012 budget resolution unveiled Tuesday, the plan's author is framing the sweeping changes to federal spending as one side of a "choice" for the American people in the next election  

    AP

    House Budget Committee member Rep. Tom McClintock, R-Calif., looks on at right as committee committee Chairman Paul Ryan, R-Wis. touts his 2012 federal budget during a news conference on Capitol Hill today.

    “We have a moral obligation to our country, to our constituents, to at least give them a choice,” said House Budget Committee chairman Rep. Paul Ryan in remarks Tuesday at the American Enterprise Institute. “So if we don’t get agreements in the intervening time because [of] politics, at least in 2012 they’ll have a real choice.”

    The GOP budget plan – which would cut about $5 million from the federal deficit and overhaul entitlement programs Medicare and Medicaid – offers a daring solution to extract the nation from under a mountain of debt but risks facing a backlash from voters who may see it as a threat to federal health care services essential to older and poorer Americans. Compared with Obama's budget, the GOP plan would cut $6.2 trillion over 10 years.

    The plan's transformative changes to health care spending and (yet-to-be-proposed) changes to Social Security are not countered by any revenue-increasing mechanisms that might be favored by Democrats, making the full plan all but politically unviable in the short term.

    Ryan argues that, without a preemptive overhaul to prevent a debt crisis that would lead to “European-style austerity,” the same reforms would have to be jarringly implemented in the future rather than responsibly introduced now.

    "Members of Congress who understand this believe that the smart best thing to do, the compassionate and humane thing, is to fix this now on our terms in a sensible way than punting and seeing more pain later,” he said.

    Democrats came out swinging in response to the Republican plan, painting the GOP-backed proposals as devastating to the elderly.

    Ryan’s Democratic counterpart on the House Budget Committee, Maryland Democrat Chris Van Hollen, accused Republicans of “shift[ing] the entire risk of rising healthcare costs to seniors” with the proposal.

    "House Republicans should be honest with the American people and repeal giveaways to the oil companies and tax breaks for the ultra-wealthy before forcing seniors to clip coupons if they need to see a doctor," said Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Steve Israel in a statement. "Seniors who are paying a lifetime into Medicare deserve to count on the system they have."

    Despite Israel’s reference to current Medicare beneficiaries, the summary of Ryan’s plan presented on the House Budget Committee website said his proposals would apply only to new Medicare beneficiaries starting in 2022, in other words, only to people who are now under age 54. “There would be no disruptions in the current Medicare fee-for-service program for those currently enrolled or becoming eligible in the next ten years,” the plan summary said.

    Ryan dismissed Israel’s blistering characterization as knee-jerk politics.

    ”Here's the deal. Is this a political weapon? Of course it is.  but you have to say things like that - which are distortions and demagogueries, no two ways about it - in order to score any kind of political points.

    “Shame on him for doing it,” he said.

    While Ryan’s fellow Republicans have been supportive of the Wisconsin lawmaker’s willingness to lead the GOP charge on difficult spending choices, those who would like to bear the party’s standard in the 2012 election have not – so far – specifically embraced the details of the plan.

    Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty praised Ryan's "leadership" and noted that the "budget is going to be debated for several months to come."

    "With over $14 trillion debt already, we should not allow Washington’s big spenders to put us further in the hole. We must get our fiscal house in order with real spending cuts and with real structural reforms that stop the spending spree before it bankrupts our country," he said in a statement." 

    Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney said he is"on the same page" as Ryan and said that the GOP chief is "setting the right tone" for controlling spending. "I applaud Rep. Paul Ryan for recognizing the looming financial crisis that faces our nation and for the creative and bold thinking that he brings to the debate," he said.

  • Boehner's mixed messages

    AP

    House Speaker John Boehner, right, accompanied by House Majority Leader Eric Cantor of Va., speaks during a news conference on Capitol Hill in Washington, today.

    From NBC’s Luke Russert and Domenico Montanaro
    House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) gave mixed messages after his meeting at the White House on whether both sides were closer or not to an agreement.

    On the one hand, Boehner said:

    "This is an important step that we face today in order to get real cuts, the White House is proposing cuts far beyond things that we would have imagined so we want to get an agreement and we want to keep the government open."

    But, on the other:

    "They'd like to insist $33 billion is the top number. That is not acceptable; we will continue to fight for the largest cuts possible and policy riders."

    Boehner said it was a “good discussion” at the White House , but “there was no agreement reached” and “conversations will continue.”

    “We've made clear that we are fighting for the largest spending cuts possible, real spending cuts here,” he continued. “No smoke and mirrors. We it clear that there was never an agreement at $33 billion dollars and that we are going to continue again the largest cuts possible. We aren't going to allow the Senate or the White House to put us in a box with two bad options."

    It’s not clear what the smoke or the mirrors are. But $33 billion would be the largest cut in history, according to the Washington Post. (The libertarian-leaning think-tank The Cato Institute disagrees with that.)

    *** UPDATE *** Boehner spokesman Michael Steel sends along this response: “Boehner was simply saying that the Democrats who run Washington are pushing ‘smoke and mirrors’ budget gimmicks beyond anything we would imagine supporting.”

  • Obama: Americans want both sides to 'act like grownups'

    From NBC’s Athena Jones and Domenico Montanaro
    In a move reminiscent to his push for a tax deal at the end of last year, President Obama made an unannounced trip to the White House briefing room to push for a budget deal.

    AP

    President Obama talks about the budget today at the White House.

    Obama said both sides were "closer than we've ever been before" on reaching a budget deal and that the only question is whether politics or ideology are going to get in the way of preventing a government shutdown.

    The last thing the economy needs is a government shutdown, Obama said, adding that his team will work as long as necessary to reach an agreement on the budget.

    Obama said there would be a meeting between House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) later today, and that if progress wasn't made in that meeting, he wanted congressional leaders to come back to the White House tomorrow for more talks.

    White House Press Secretary Jay Carney later dodged questions about whether that meant the president would cancel his planned trips Wednesday to Pennsylvania and New York.

    On the prospect of another short-term continuing resolution, Obama said it wouldn't be his preference, but that if over next 24 to 48 hours, a deal was done and the two sides just can't get the paperwork through quickly enough, a short-term CR under those circumstances is something the White House would support.

    Obama said the American people expect both sides to "act like grownups" and not focus on scoring political points. Americans are worrying about gas prices and jobs, and that's what the government should be focused on, he said.

    While the president said Democrats were willing to offer additional proposals for cuts, he did not offer specifics.

  • Kaine makes his Senate bid official

    From NBC's Mark Murray and Domenico Montanaro
    One day after President Obama announced his re-election bid, current DNC Chairman (and former Virginia Gov.) Tim Kaine has officially declared he's running for the open Senate seat being vacated by Sen. Jim Webb (D).

    In a video on his campaign Web site, Kaine -- wearing a plaid shirt and sitting on wooden steps -- harkens back to his days as Richmond mayor, city council member, and governor. He makes no mention, however, of being Obama’s DNC chairman. There are no images or mention of the president, either.

    He even takes a shot at Washington. Virginia, he said, has a “tradition of balance and civility that is sadly disappearing from Washington... I know that Washington can learn a few things from Virginia.”

    Kaine's entry in the race represents the Democrats' biggest recruiting victory of the 2012 cycle, and he gives the Democrats, at worst, a 50%-50% chance of keeping Webb's seat.

    His entry also potentially sets up an enticing general election against former GOP Virginia Sen. (and former Gov.) George Allen.

    The National Republican Senatorial Committee issued this statement in response to Kaine getting into the race: “Over the last several years, Tim Kaine has been the most vocal cheerleader in Washington for the reckless fiscal policies and massive expansion of government that have been the hallmark of the Obama Administration.  And now Tim Kaine is staking his election hopes on this costly partisan agenda that has failed to create new jobs while driving our national debt past $14 trillion

    An unanswered question: Who replaces Kaine as DNC chairman? Former Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland and current Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz are two names who have been mentioned for the post.

  • Demagogue this

    From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
    Before unveiling his fiscal plan that would phase out Medicare (and make big cuts to much of the rest of the budget), Budget Committee Chairman Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) said this on Sunday of Democrats:

    “They are going to demagogue us, and it's that demagoguery that has always prevented political leaders in the past from actually trying to fix the problem. We can't keep kicking this can down the road. The president has punted. We're not going to follow suit. And, yes, we will be giving our political adversaries things to use against us in the next election, and shame on them if they do that.”

    But in American politics, there’s usually enough shame to go around.

    Before the 2010 elections, it was Republicans doing the demagogue-ing -- so to speak. The GOP -- as well as outside conservative groups (like Crossroads GPS and 60 Plus, the conservative alternative to AARP) -- criticized the proposed cuts to Medicare in the health-care overhaul.

    The Democratic National Committee attempted to play defense, but Republicans blitzed the airwaves grabbing onto the Medicare issue. (At First Read, we wrote about the GOP’s 180 -- and now apparent 360 -- on Medicare here, here, and here.)

    Here’s a sampling of scripts and links from other ads Republicans and Republican-leaning groups ran:

    60 Plus vs. former Rep. Allen Boyd (D-FL): Older man: “Allen Boyd has betrayed Florida seniors.” Woman: “Instead of voting to protect us, he supported Nancy Pelosi’s liberal agenda.” Another woman: “Boyd voted for Nancy Pelosi’s health care bill, which would cut $500 billion from Medicare.” Another man: “That will hurt the quality of our care.” Woman: “We thought Boyd was looking out for us. But Allen Boyd switched his vote on health care.” Man: “Florida seniors can send Allen Boyd a message – he betrayed us. This November, we’ll remember.” (Hat tip: Politifact.)

    Crossroads GPS vs. Joe Sestak (D-PA):  “What’s Congressman Joe Sestak done? He voted to gut Medicare, slashing benefits for Pennsylvania seniors. The Obama-Sestak scheme could jeopardize access to care for millions. … Gutting Medicare, hurting seniors, killing jobs, Pennsylvania can’t afford Joe Sestak.”

    That looks very similar to this NRSC vs. Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO): Bennet: “I’ve been in Washington only a year.” Announcer: “And what’s Bennet done? He voted to gut Medicare, jeopardizing benefits for over 200,000 Colorado seniors. … Gutting Medicare, hurting seniors, killing jobs.”

    Crossroads GPS vs. Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA): “California seniors are worried. Barbara Boxer voted to cut spending on Medicare benefits by $500 billion. Cuts so costly to hospitals and nursing homes that they could stop taking Medicare altogether. Boxer’s cut would sharply reduce benefits for some and could jeopardize access to care for millions of others.  … Check the facts and take action. Call Boxer. Stop the Medicare cuts.”

    And here was former RNC Chairman Michael Steele touting his proposed “Seniors Bill of Rights”: “No cuts to Medicare to pay for another program. Zero.”

    There was even an RNC Spanish-language radio ad (translated, per RealClearPolitics): “Where is the money going to come from?  Will you really cut funding for Medicare to pay for it? How can that be good? That’s really going to hurt our seniors. Big federal spending programs, no improvement in jobs, and Medicare cuts. That’s just not good enough. We can’t afford for things to keep on this way.  Mr. President - is this the best you can do.”

    From the ambiguously named, “League of American Voters”: Young woman: “Cutting Medicare $400 billion?” Faux government official: “Streamlining. The elderly are such a drain on the system.”

    Rep. Erik Paulsen (R-MN) v. Jim Meffert (DFL-MN): “Meffert’s for the trillion-dollar health-care takeover and a massive $500 billion cut in Medicare”

    Here was the NRCC against former Rep. Mark Schauer (D-MI): “Maybe Schauer’s trying to hide his own vote to cut $500 billion from Medicare. Listen to Schauer caught on tape.” Schauer’s voice: “Yes, there are Medicare cuts.” Announcer: “Did Schauer really vote to cut Medicare?” Schauer again: “There are Medicare cuts.” Announcer: “Let’s save Medicare, and cut Schauer.”

    Now freshman Rep. Dan Benishek (R-MI) vowed: “Social Security and Medicare are a promise we’ve made to our seniors. And I will keep that promise.” Announcer: “Dr. Dan Benishek’s plan would guarantee Social Security and Medicare for the future.”

    Lamar Alexander (in Senate Republicans’ video at about 0:46): “We can say no to higher taxes, higher premiums, and cuts to Medicare.”

    Here (and here) were DNC ads vs. Republicans on Medicare.

  • Is this controlling Wisconsin's budget?

    From NBC's John Yang
    At least one Wisconsin state employee seems to be doing just fine without collective bargaining.

    As Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) tries to rein in public worker's pay and benefits in the name of controlling the state budget, he's dealing with the disclosure that his administration hired the 27-year-old son of a veteran lobbyist for a management job and has already promoted him and given him a 26% pay raise -- despite not having a college degree and having two drunk-driving convictions.

    The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reported that Walker's campaign manager and now chief of staff, Keith Gilkes, recommended Brian Deschane for a job interview at the state's Department of Regulation and Licensing. In January, he was hired as a $64,728-a-year manager in that department. A month later, Commerce Secretary Paul Jadin put Deschane in charge of a reorganization of his agency -- boosting his salary to $81,500.

    Deschane is the son of Jerry Deschane, the long-time lobbyist for the Wisconsin Builders Association, whose political action committee gave Walker's campaign $29,000 and whose members contributed at least another $92,000.

    The elder Deschane acknowledges mentioning to Gilkes that his son was looking for a job. The younger Deschane didn't return messages from either the Milwaukee newspaper or the Associated Press.

    Walker spokesman Cullen Werwie said the administration knew of the younger Deschane's drunk-driving convictions, but "felt he had changed his habits and that these past incidents would in no way affect his performance at this job."

  • First Thoughts: The bold and the cautious

    The bold and the cautious… GOP takes a big risk with going bold on the spending-cut impasse and with Medicare/Medicaid… White House takes a beating for Gitmo reversal… Are we on the brink of a shutdown?... Obama meets with congressional leaders at 10:15 am ET to try to resolve the impasse… The difference between the lame duck and now: Obama had credibility with his base, while Boehner doesn’t (at least not yet)… Circle July 8 on your calendars… Ryan’s budget rollout… Two additional reasons why his plan seems DOA: Almost everyone likes Medicare, and excluding those 55 and older never seems to work… Today’s two referendums on Scott Walker… And 270 to win.

    From NBC's Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
    *** The bold and the cautious: There is something about winning an election that emboldens a political party. We saw it after 2008, when President Obama went big with his stimulus and health-care plans, as well as his promise to close the Guantanamo Bay prison. And we’re seeing it again after 2010, with House Republicans refusing -- it seems for now -- to meet Democrats half way in reducing spending for the rest of the year; with Paul Ryan’s plan today to overhaul Medicaid and Medicare; and with Gov. Scott Walker’s (R) push on collective bargaining. Similarly, there’s something about trying to win an election that makes a political party VERY cautious. We saw it last year, when House Republicans refused to say anything about reforming entitlement programs, and when most didn’t dare touch Ryan’s “road map” for reform on the campaign trail. And we’re seeing it again now, with the Obama administration -- on the very day the president announces his re-election bid -- scuttling its promise to try Khalid Shaikh Mohammed in federal court.  

    *** GOP takes a big risk: So today’s question is this: What will win out in 2011 and 2012 -- boldness or caution? In his column today, National Journal’s Charlie Cook believes the bold House Republicans are taking a very big risk with going bold. “[T]alking with Republican pollsters, strategists and veteran campaign professionals recently, I now hear sounds of concern that haven’t been heard in almost two years. Among the worries the party now has is that a government shutdown could get blamed on the GOP. Additionally, these party insiders believe that taking on entitlements, specifically Medicare, could jeopardize the party’s hold on the House, its strong chances of taking the Senate and the stronghold that the party has been established with older white voters— not coincidentally, Medicare recipients.” Voters want both boldness and caution, and it's a balancing act.

    *** White House takes a beating: While House Republicans are taking a big risk, the Obama White House is taking a beating for bowing to politics, reality, and caution in reversing its effort to try KSM in federal court. The New York Times editorial page puts it well: “That retreat was a victory for congressional pandering and an embarrassment for the Obama administration, which failed to stand up to it.” The about-face was a painful reminder that “Change you can believe in” sometimes becomes “Change doesn’t happen if the politics is no longer on your side.”

    *** On the brink of a shutdown? The biggest story today, though, is the 10:15 am ET meeting at the White House to try and resolve the spending-cut impasse. The attendees: President Obama, Vice President Biden, House Speaker John Boehner, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, House Appropriations Chairman Hal Rogers, and Senate Appropriations Chair Dan Inouye. Last week, we wrote not to believe the hype about a government shutdown -- mainly because while Boehner had said there was no deal, he never was rejecting the $33 billion compromise figure. But something happened yesterday. “I’ve made clear that their $33 billion is not enough and many of the cuts that the White House and Senate Democrats are talking about are full of smoke and mirrors,” Boehner said in a statement yesterday. His office later followed up with this: “Tonight, Speaker Boehner informed House Republicans that tomorrow … House Administration Committee Chairman Dan Lungren will issue guidance to all members on how the House would operate in the event Senate Democrats shut down the government.” Boehner's change of heart came after Senate Democrats and House Republicans couldn't agree on the number of permanent cuts vs. temporary cuts, and that's why Boehner went from vagueness regarding the $33 billion to being more definitive yesterday. More than ever before, we seem on the brink of a shutdown.

    *** Credibility with the base: The biggest difference between the lame-duck battle over the Bush tax cuts and the current impasse over spending cuts is: Obama had the credibility to tell his base to accept temporarily extending the tax cuts for the wealthy in return for jobless benefits and a payroll tax cut. As you remember, Democrats weren’t happy with the compromise, but they eventually acquiesced (and then turned their attention to other issues, like “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” and New START). But Boehner doesn’t have that same credibility with his base, at least not yet. He can't tell the base, “Take this half a loaf.” They don't yet trust him. And that’s why we’re on the brink of a shutdown.

    *** Circle July 8 on your calendars: By the way, we now have a date for the next big congressional battle, if we ever get to it. Reuters: “The United States will hit the legal limit on its ability to borrow no later than May 16, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said on Monday, ramping up pressure on Congress to act to avoid a debt default.” And that means the debt ceiling has to be raised no LATER than July 8.

    *** Ryan’s rollout: The other big story today -- besides today’s White House meeting to resolve the spending-cut impasse -- is House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan’s rollout of his 2012 budget plan, which includes an overhaul of Medicare and Medicaid. Ryan holds a press conference at 10:30 am ET, and speaks at the conservative American Enterprise Institute at noon ET. As we wrote yesterday, there are a few reasons why Ryan’s proposals won’t likely go anywhere for now: 1) Ryan has no bipartisan cover; 2) Dems are still in control of the White House and Senate; and 3) Ryan didn’t back the bipartisan Deficit Commission recommendations. But there are two more reasons why the proposals are DOA. One, Medicare remains the best government brand out there. Almost EVERYONE loves the program, so good luck cutting it. Republicans got control of the House and "won" the health care PR battle by, well, to borrow a word that some are using a lot today: "demogogue-ing" Medicare. Two, excluding those 55 and older from changes NEVER seems to work. Just ask George W. Bush what happened with his Social Security reform.

    *** The referendums on Scott Walker: The political fight in Wisconsin won't be ending any time soon -- with court battles and recall elections on the horizon. And today, there are two general-election races in the state that some may view as referendums on Gov. Scott Walker (R). In the race to replace Walker as Milwaukee County executive, nonpartisan (though Democratic leaning) Chris Abele faces off against Republican Jeff Stone. Abele has aired a TV ad comparing Stone to Walker (Stone has been quoted as saying that he and Walker share “similar aspirations,” while Walker has praised Stone). In a second race -- for state Supreme Court -- incumbent conservative David Prosser takes on more liberal challenger JoAnne Kloppenburg, and Democrats have played up a quote from a Prosser spokesperson saying the justice would be a “complement” to Walker. The contest has even featured this over-the-top ad.

    *** Is Walker toxic?  If Democrats win one or both of these races by tying the Republican to Walker, it could be further evidence that Walker is politically toxic in Wisconsin and that Dems have the momentum in the state. And these two contests are just the beginning: The first recall election of a GOP state senator looks like it will take place a couple of months from now…

    *** 270 to win: Finally, the Web site 270toWin.com plugged in First Read’s presidential toss-up states. It found 70 scenarios how Obama could reach 270 electoral votes or higher, 50 scenarios how the GOP nominee could get to 270 and above, and 13 different ways we could see a 269-269 tie. Digest that last fact a minute: 13 different scenarios for a 269-269 tie. Cue the screams from electoral college reformers.

    Countdown to continuing resolution’s expiration: 3 days
    Countdown to NY-26 special election: 49 days
    Countdown to Iowa GOP straw poll: 129 days
    Countdown to Election Day 2011: 217 days
    Countdown to the Iowa caucuses: 307 days
    * Note: When the IA caucuses take place depends on whether other states move up

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  • Congress: Deadlocked

    “With budget talks deadlocked, House Republicans drafted a one-week bill last night to cut spending by $12 billion, fully fund the Pentagon, and avert a government shutdown threatened for Friday. At the same time, they disclosed plans to instruct lawmakers ‘on how the House would operate in the event Senate Democrats shut down the government,’” the AP reports. “The display of brinksmanship came at the end of a day marked by increasing acrimony in budget negotiations, and drew a sarcastic response from Democrats. ‘House Republicans should focus on negotiating, not planning dress rehearsals for a shutdown that the Tea Party so desires,’ said Jon Summers, a spokesman for Senate majority leader Harry Reid, a Nevada Democrat.”

    More: “A one-week measure that contains an additional $12 billion would presumably be reassuring to Tea Party-backed lawmakers, who are among the most vocal in seeking to reduce the size and scope of the government. It would also be difficult for most Democrats to support. But by including the money the Pentagon needs for the next six months, Republicans hoped to increase the pressure on them.”

    The short-term CR, however, “includes a controversial abortion rider,” Roll Call notes. The bill “would prohibit the District of Columbia government from using federal or local funds to pay for abortions for low-income women.”

    NBC’s Shawna Thomas quotes a GOP aide: "Senate Democrats and the White House don't get serious about passing a funding bill for the rest of the year that will really cut spending and help end the uncertainty that makes it harder to create American jobs."

    There’s some fatigue among House Republicans on the CR debate: “GOP lawmakers and aides said that while they are not ready to abandon the fight over a six-month continuing resolution, they are nevertheless itching to take up other issues, including a new budget bill, the debt limit, gas prices and the situation in Libya,” Roll Call reports.

    What’s behind this? A GOP source tells The Hill: Boehner “said he needs this [the as-of-yet-introduced bill] and the support of the conference going into that meeting at the White House, because he feels it gives him more leverage.”

    Meanwhile, Roll Call says “House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan’s bold new budget blueprint could not have come at a more opportune time for Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio), who will have to sell conservatives on a compromise with Senate Democrats and the White House to keep the government operating past Friday.” The paper makes this point: Ryan’s plan “could help Boehner convince his Conference that now is the time to cut a deal — even if it means compromising with Democrats on spending and policy riders.”

    The Hill calls this “a defining moment” for Ryan. “Ryan must now sell his plan to two distinct audiences: fellow conservatives and then the wider public.”

    Red State’s Erickson wrote this on Twitter: “Having read what Paul Ryan is proposing, I really like it. But I think it should be where we want to end negotiations, not begin them.” And then: “It's official. I must now hate the Paul Ryan budget. David Brooks is in love with it.”

    Brooks calls it “the most comprehensive and most courageous budget reform proposal any of us have seen in our lifetimes. Ryan is expected to leap into the vacuum left by the president’s passivity…  His proposal will set the standard of seriousness for anybody who wants to play in this discussion. It will become the 2012 Republican platform, no matter who is the nominee.”

    (Question: If Ryan’s proposal sets the standard of seriousness, why didn’t Ryan back the equally serious -- and more bipartisan -- Deficit Commission recommendations?)

    “Forty-one senators have pledged to filibuster any bipartisan spending bill that includes an amendment to strip federal funding from Planned Parenthood, threatening an impasse with House conservatives,” The Hill writes.

    Jim DeMint says, “Republican lawmakers need to be willing to risk their political careers to win support for a balanced-budget amendment,” per The Hill.

  • Obama agenda: Capitulation

    The New York Times: "The Obama administration, ending more than a year of indecision with a major policy reversal, will prosecute Khalid Shaikh Mohammed and four other people accused of plotting the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks before a military commission and not a civilian court, as it once planned. Attorney General Eric H. Holder Jr. announced on Monday that he has cleared military prosecutors at Guantánamo Bay, Cuba, to file war-crimes charges against the five detainees in the Sept. 11 case."

    More: The shift was foreshadowed by stiffening Congressional resistance to bringing Guantánamo detainees into the United States, and by other recent steps clearing the way for new tribunal trials. Still, it marked a significant moment of capitulation in the Obama administration’s largely frustrated effort to dismantle counterterrorism architecture left behind by former President George W. Bush."

    “Obama set the spending record, $760 million for the primary and general elections, in 2008. His outlay for 2012 is expected to surpass that benchmark and top $1 billion, even though he is unlikely to face a formidable primary opponent,” the Boston Globe writes, adding that fundraising likely can’t come from small donors. “Analysts say that mobilization will have to extend well beyond the grass-roots level the president envisions and embrace big-money donors as well. In Obama’s campaign for the presidency in 2008, tens of thousands of small-time donors flocked to his campaign, attracted by his message and his position as an outsider. Now, as an incumbent, he will find it harder to cultivate such enthusiasm.”

    “The federal government will hit the statutory debt limit by May 16 if Congress does not act, according to the Treasury Department,” The Hill reports.

    After giving a policy speech at the University of New Hampshire, Vice President Biden pepped up 50 prominent Democrats and volunteers for Organizing for America in Portsmouth, telling the supporters “that they need to get to work now while the administration focuses on more pressing concerns,” the Boston Globe reports.

    President Obama will host a state dinner for Germany’s Angela Merkel June 7.

  • 2012: On Social Media

    The Boston Globe’s Johnson looks at “the prominent role social media will play in the 2012 presidential campaign… It allows them to bypass what George W. Bush used to call ‘the filter,’ and what Sarah Palin has more tartly termed ‘the lamestream media.’ For the candidates, it's also an affordable and immediate way to spread their views.”

    BACHMANN: Rep. Michele Bachmann has hired Wes Enos, who served as Mike Huckabee’s political director for the former governor’s winning Iowa caucus campaign, The Hill reports. “The hiring of Enos is also another sign that Huckabee won't make a run at the presidency in 2012. His former Iowa campaign manager, Eric Woolson, is already on board as an adviser to former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty.” 

    Channeling a point one of us made from Iowa, The Hill says: “The vacuum created by former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin’s (R) absence from the 2012 campaign trail presents a major opportunity for the woman she once hinted might share a presidential ticket with her: Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.). With strategists and conservative activists increasingly convinced that Palin won’t make a run for the White House next year, she is losing some clout among her contingent of grassroots devotees who are eager to hit the 2012 campaign trail and rally behind an alternative to President Obama.”

    DANIELS: Mitch Daniels will deliver a speech on his education agenda at the American Enterprise Institute on May 4, Politico reports, adding the timing is significant because “[t]he Hoosier has been mum about whether he intends to run for president, but has indicated he'll make up his mind after his legislative session, now slated to end on April 29. Should legislators meet their deadline, Daniels’s AEI speech could amount to his unofficial campaign debut.”

    GINGRICH: “Former House speaker Newt Gingrich, in his third visit to New Hampshire in three weeks, laid out several tax proposals yesterday, saying they would trigger an explosion of investment and new jobs,” the AP writes. “Gingrich called for reducing to zero the capital gains tax, making permanent the George W. Bush-era tax cuts, allowing companies to write off 100 percent of new equipment purchases in the first year, and eliminating the estate tax. He also called for a 12.5 percent corporate tax rate, saying a reasonable tax rate would stop such companies as General Electric from sheltering profits to avoid paying federal taxes. … ‘It’s not bad luck that we have high unemployment; it’s bad policies,’ he said.”

    The New Hampshire Union Leader writes that Newt Gingrich’s speech at St. Anselm College was centered on fiscal issues, although he didn’t shy away from criticizing President Obama. “At the rate that Obama and others are running up the debt, you will pay for the equivalent of a house, just for this generation's politicians' debt,” he said.

    Gingrich also accused President Obama of trying to “extort contributions” from donors by announcing his official re-election campaign, CNN notes.

    He also distanced his own experience with government shutdown from the current atmosphere in Congress. “In every single way, Speaker (John) Boehner inherited a more complicated and a more difficult situation than I had,” Gingrich told reporters, according to the Concord Monitor.

    PALIN: According to Mediaite, Sarah Palin will get her own E! “True Hollywood Story” later this month, Politico notes.

    ROMNEY: Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney will participate in a tea-party affiliated presidential summit in New Hampshire at the end of this month, according to the host group, Americans for Prosperity. The forum will also feature Tim Pawlenty, Rick Santorum and Herman Cain, National Journal writes.

    While he has thus far avoided providing his own opinions on foreign policy issues, Mitt Romney has been quick to criticize President Obama’s decisions abroad, Real Clear Politics writes. Romney is also beginning to set up a dichotomy between himself and President Obama on foreign policy: that as a businessman, Romney has better negotiating skills than President Obama does.

    Romney “called President Obama ‘inexperienced and naïve’ in light of the administration's reversal on military trials for suspected terrorists,” The Hill writes. “‘An inexperienced and naïve president has finally reversed himself on Guantanamo and terrorist trials; let’s hope he sees the light on his other flawed policies,’ Romney said in a statement.”

    TRUMP: Stu Rothenberg, writing in Roll Call, doesn’t see the humor in Donald Trump’s flirtation with a presidential run: “Talk of Trump as a future president or even as a serious contender for the GOP nomination is so far beyond stupid that I almost don’t know where to begin. I can’t believe that so many people are chattering about the possibility that he might run and could be elected, though admittedly most of them are laughing about the absurdity of the prospect.”

  • More 2012: ‘Syrup farmers’ and ‘ethanol freaks’

    FLORIDA: The Miami Herald writes that Republican activists in the Sunshine State are beginning to fear the loss of special perks usually given to the state by the national GOP, especially as it hosts the 2012 convention, if the state sticks its planned violation of RNC rules by moving up its primary date.

    Orange County, Florida Republican Party Chairman Lew Oliver wrote a letter to state Republican committee members calling on the legislature to stick to its guns on the early primary, the Sarasota Herald-Tribune writes. Oliver resorted to a little name-calling, decrying New Hampshire Republicans as “a collection of syrup farmers” and their Iowa counterparts “ethanol freaks.”

    NEW HAMPSHIRE: Two conservative kingmakers, Sens. Jim DeMint (SC) and Steve King (IA) will headline the “First in the Nation Freedom Forum,” hosted by non-profit group We The People in New Hampshire, The Hill reports. The event will also feature three “top tier” presidential candidates, according to the group’s president, Jennifer Horn.

    In an op-ed for the Boston Globe, former Republican Sen. John E. Sununu takes a shot at Sarah Palin and Donald Trump, whose fixation on the idea of running for president, Sununu writes, represents the nature of “exactly the type of political figure our country’s founders were worried about.” He continues: “For the record, I do not view Palin or Trump as a threat to the republic. But like the framers, I have always felt ill at ease with officeholders or candidates who are too enamored with the idea of holding a particular office.”Aides to some likely Republican presidential candidates are grousing over the idea of RNC-sanctioned debates in which the committee would decide the format and moderators of each debate and candidates would help raise money by holding fundraisers held in conjunction with the forums, Politico reports.

    “Former White House Press Secretary Ari Fleischer will help lead a Republican National Committee effort to adjust and refine the party's national message heading into 2012,” The Hill reports.

  • An army of robots descends on Capitol Hill (well, kinda)

    From NBC's Shawna Thomas and Carrie Dann
    A policy goal of one member of the United States Senate got a boost this afternoon from one nearly-universal fact about modern American culture:

    Almost everyone thinks robots are way cool.

    Sen. Jean Shaheen (D-N.H.) was aided by a small army of robots (and by the teams of students who built them) on Monday in unveiling legislation to help high schoolers gain more access to programs furthering science, technology, engineering and math education.

    In a presentation tied to the legislation’s introduction, student participants in a national robotics competition called FIRST (For Inspiration and Recognition of Science and Technology) exhibited their remote-controlled creations in a hearing room normally reserved for decorous Senate hearings on military issues.

    Luckily for humanity's side in a hypothetical apocalyptic man vs. machine science-fiction scenario, these teenage-engineered robots were at least more Johnny 5 than Cylon.

    Shaheen, a former teacher herself, used the event to stress the point that "traditional teaching methods don't appeal to a lot of these students."

    The Innovation Inspiration School Grant Program she has proposed would create a public/private partnership by encouraging school districts to find businesses that will match federal funds and provide math and science industry mentors. 

    The New Hampshire Democrat is hoping the program will be included in the reauthorization of the early and secondary education act later this year. 

    But while Shaheen described the legislation as providing "new incentives and resources for our schools to think outside the box," it's hard to divorce the announcement itself from the timing.

    On a week when government spending is in the forefront of the news and the House GOP's 2011 continuing resolution cuts $4.9 billion from current Education Department spending,  it's difficult to see on paper how proposals for new spending are going to fare. Also, conspicuously absent from the list of cosponsors is anyone's name with an "R" next to it. 

    Still, participants in the FIRST program say that while “playing with robots” sounds like a taunt directed at the lovable pocket-protected high school nerd character in a John Hughes movie, technology education initiatives have some serious benefits.

    Tavon Johnson, a 16-year-old student at Willow High School, said his mother first talked him into learning about robots but that he plans to keep participating when he goes to college.  "I believe FIRST is important because it teaches students science and technology," said Johnson.  "When I first began I didn't know too much about tools, too much about measurements and now FIRST has really changed me."

    Because FIRST is an extracurricular activity, others say, programs like this one can answer the question of what kids are doing after school.  "It does not happen during school hours," said 17-year-old Jade Womack of George Mason High School.  “There are six weeks where you are allowed to build a robot and so I usually expect that if I come to school at 7am, I'm leaving school at 7pm. It's a lot of time and commitment." 

  • Cops investigating pig's foot sent to Rep. Peter King's office

    From NBC's Luke Russert
    A Capitol Hill source tells NBC that the Washington D.C. office of Rep. Peter King (R-N.Y.) was sent a bloody pig's foot with a note attached that contained anti-Semitic ramblings.

    The note referenced King's controversial hearing last month about Muslim extremism within the United States.

    The Capitol Hill police are treating this incident as an "open investigation."

    The pig's foot was found when the package it was contained in was radiated and scanned for explosives. The package never actually reached King's office and was intercepted beforehand.

  • Former Rep. John Adler, D-NJ, dies at 51

    AP

    FILE - Former U.S. Rep. John Adler, D-NJ, stops to answer a question as he walks from a polling place in June 2010 after voting in the state's primary election. The New Jersey Star Ledger reported Monday that state Sen. Paul Sarlo announced Adler's death after a hearing today.

    Former Rep. John Adler, a New Jersey Democrat who served for one term in the United States House and for over 15 years in the New Jersey state senate, has died at the age of 51.

    Adler underwent emergency surgery last month after he contracted a staph infection in the lining of his heart. The former congressman's  father also suffered from a heart ailment and died when the younger Adler was a teenager.

    The New Jersey Star Ledger reported Monday that state Sen. Paul Sarlo announced Adler’s death after a hearing today.

    The Harvard graduate and longtime state lawmaker served in the New Jersey state senate from 1992-2008 before being elected to the U.S. House in a tight race against Lockheed Martin executive Chris Myers. He served on the House Financial Services Committee for two years but was defeated in 2010 by his Republican challenger, former NFL player Jon Runyan.

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