From NBC’s Luke Russert
If a government shutdown becomes inevitable, lawmakers appear ready to pass last-minute legislation to prevent the most unpopular possible effect of a funding gap: the delay of paychecks to members of the armed services.

Rep. Louie Gohmert, R-Texas, has introduced legislation that would pay the military on time even if a larger federal funding lapse occurs. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, R-Texas, has introduced companion legislation in the Senate and has indicated that the measure has ample support on her side of the aisle.

GOP sources tell NBC News that if a shutdown appears inevitable there is a very good possibility this military funding bill would be brought to the House floor, passed quickly, and sent on to the Senate.

“The pressure is fortunately mounting now on both sides to take care of those who are fighting for us,” Gohmert said on his Facebook page.

The House has already passed a measure that would fund the military through the rest of the fiscal year, but it is attached to a larger one-week spending bill that both Senate Democrats and President Obama have said they would reject.

From msnbc.com's Tom Curry:  “We agreed it’s 78... The number was 78…. There’s no question about the number... the number is 78. It was agreed upon last night.” So said Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid Friday afternoon at a press conference describing an agreement that he said he, President Obama, and House Speaker John Boehner had reached on Thursday night to cut spending for the remainder of this fiscal year.

Reid calls it a $78 billion cut.

But why do news stories use the figure $38 billion as the amount that the negotiators have agreed to cut?

The different numbers are simply the result of two different ways of measuring.

First of all, keep in mind we are now in the middle of fiscal year 2011, which began on Oct. 1, 2010.

The cuts being discussed would affect fiscal year 2011 spending.

Compared to what President Obama proposed way back in January of 2010 when he issued his fiscal year 2011 budget blueprint, the deal Reid is describing would spend $78 billion less.

But measured another way, the deal would amount to $38 billion being cut from current spending levels.

For many federal agencies, current spending levels are the same as in fiscal year 2010. That’s because since last September, the Congress has passed and Obama has signed into law a series of interim spending bills, which essentially keep spending at the same level it was at in fiscal year 2010.

But saying the cut amounts to $78 billion makes it appear to be bigger – and that presumably can help Reid make his case that Democrats are making big sacrifices by agreeing to painful cuts in spending.

Or as Sen. Patty Murray, D- Wash., said at Reid’s press conference, “Difficult as it has been, we have compromised and compromised, and we are at a number that some of us are going to have to swallow darn hard, knowing the consequences of that.”

So how big a cut is $38 billion?

It is relatively small in the grand scheme of things. Since projected federal spending this fiscal year will be about $3.7 trillion, according to the Congressional Budget Office, a cut of $38 billion would amount to a one percent reduction.

The government spends roughly $11 billion per day, so $38 billion would be less than four days’ worth of spending.

The number that some House Republicans campaigned on last year was $100 billion in spending cuts. Again that’s measuring against Obama’s fiscal year 2011 funding request and Democrats aren't the only ones to use the measure of the proposed Obama budget when convenient.

When the House Appropriations Committee OK’d its spending reduction bill in February – a bill later rejected by the Senate—committee chairman Rep. Hal Rogers, R- Ky., said, “This bill is a monumental accomplishment for each and every American who believes that their government is spending too much. It dramatically scales back the size and scope of domestic government programs (and) eliminates $100 billion in spending compared to what the President asked for last year.”  The actual figure compared to actual 2010 spending levels is closer to the $61 billion commonly reported.

As of Friday afternoon there was no deal to keep the government open. What will that mean for the Week Ahead? Will this uncertainty keep the President in town? At least one thing is certain, Republicans who want to be president are still hitting the trail.

From NBC's Athena Jones
Deal or no deal, the White House has officially canceled the president's previously planned family trip to Williamsburg, Va., this weekend.

The trip was listed as "TBD" on his schedule last night.

Here's the statement:

"The President will remain in Washington, DC this weekend as he continues to work with Congressional leaders to reach an agreement on the budget. The First Family's trip to Williamsburg has been postponed."

From NBC's Catherine Chomiak and Mark Murray
With the government due to shutdown at midnight, former House Speaker and potential Republican presidential candidate Newt Gingrich accused President Obama of using American troops as political bargaining chips.

"President Obama is deliberately seeking to hold the men and women in uniform and their families hostage, so that politicians can fight over the budget and use the threat of not paying the troops as their weapon -- because liberals know once you take care of the military, most of America is going to say fight it out for a while," Gingrich told the audience at Liberty University's Awakening Conference.

Gingrich was referring to Obama's veto threat of GOP legislation that would fund troops in a government shutdown. However, the legislation also included a funding ban of abortions in Washington, D.C. -- an unacceptable poison pill for Democrats.

After his speech today, Gingrich -- who was speaker during the last government shutdown in 1995-1996 -- told members of press that if he were president, he would have been involved months ago in trying to find compromise on the budget to keep the government open. While Gingrich said you have to compromise, he said compromising on the fundamentals is out of the question. "Let's talk about what our principles are, and then let’s have the courage to follow the principles through to policy," he urged.

"If they can't find some way to work their way through this, they have much bigger problems coming down the road," he added. The 112th Congress still has the 2012 budget and the debt ceiling on the docket. 

In 2012 news, when asked about potential presidential competitor Donald Trump, Gingrich called him a very inventive and interesting person. "He adds a lot to the race," Gingrich said. "Frankly, for a Republican Party that sometimes is a little bit dull having somebody like Trump hang out is going to guarantee that you all have a lot more to cover."

After both sides huddled behind closed doors Friday afternoon, the message from both Senate Democrats and House Republicans remained clear.

They’re still stuck.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, flanked by all Senate Democrats, emerged from a closed-door meeting with his caucus to press House Speaker John Boehner to sell his conservative members on a deal that would avert a government shutdown.

If Boehner and his caucus fail to agree to a compromise that can pass both chambers of Congress before midnight tonight, Reid said, “it will be crystal clear to the American people that Democrats are reasonable and Republicans are responsible for shutting down the government.”

Reid accuses House negotiators of “backing off” a base number for cuts that was agreed to in a White House meeting late last night. That deal would have kept discretionary spending cuts at $73 billion and then added additional reductions in mandatory and Pentagon spending, he said.

Now, Democrats maintain that Republicans are holding up an agreement because of their insistence on pulling federal funding for family planning and women’s health organizations that also provide abortions.

“They can keep their word to cut the deficit or they can shutdown America’s government over women’s access to health care,” Reid said of House Republicans. “If that sounds ridiculous it’s because it is ridiculous.”

But Boehner announced after meeting with his members that “almost all” of the policy issues that have been thwarting a deal have been resolved, reiterating that the depth of spending cuts remains the sticking point in his negotiations with Democrats.

"We're not going to roll over and sell out the American people like it's been done time and again in Washington," Boehner said. "We're damn serious about it."

Tempers are clearly flaring in the negotiations as time ticks closer to tonight’s midnight funding deadline.

Asked today about his earlier statement that the vice president became visibly upset during last night’s talks, Reid responded “Joe Biden wasn't flustered, he was damn mad.”

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
There has been disagreement among Democrats and Republicans over what the actual sticking points are on cutting a deal before a potential government shutdown tonight at midnight.

Democrats say it's all about ideology -- for extraneous funding measures, particularly for Planned Parenthood. Republicans publicly say it's still about the overall level of spending, though they don't disagree that both sides haven't found agreement over Planned Parenthood funding.

Well, now the conservative, anti-abortion-rights group, Susan B. Anthony List put out a statement, charging that President Obama wants "to shut down government to keep Planned Parenthood running."

"The President has singled out Planned Parenthood, a significant financial and political supporter for special attention and protection," said Marjorie Dannenfelser, president of the group. "It is extraordinary that the President sees federal funding for the nation's number one abortion provider as more important than paychecks for federal workers and funding for our military. When is the question going to be asked of President Obama and Senator Harry Reid, 'Why is it reasonable to shut down the government in order to protect Planned Parenthood?'"

The group will hold a conference call at 3:00 pm ET to press their case.

House Speaker John Boehner announced Friday that he will forego pay in the event of a government shutdown, joining a growing list of lawmakers who say they will donate or return their paychecks if federal workers or members of the military are denied theirs by a funding gap.

“In the event of a lapse in appropriations for fiscal year 2011 causing a government shutdown, I will return any and all compensation that I would otherwise be entitled during such a lapse in appropriations,” Boehner said in a letter to his House colleagues.

As NBC’s Luke Russert wrote this week, unless legislation passes today to suspend members’ pay, lawmakers will still receive their paychecks as scheduled. Most members of Congress make $174,000 annually; those in leadership positions make more. 

That contrast is proving unpopular, as members of the military and many “essential” federal workers would have to report for work but only be paid retroactively if there's a federal funding gap.

Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, R-Texas, has introduced legislation that would ensure members of the military get their paychecks on time. The measure appears to have enough support to pass in the Senate but it has not yet been brought up for a vote.

NBC's Kelly O'Donnell reports that a source inside a Democratic caucus meeting said that Reid is seeking a way to protect military salaries before the end of the day.  "We will not leave here today until we take care of the troops," Reid said, according to the source.

Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.V., circulated a letter to senators earlier this week to urge them to return their pay to the United States Treasury in the event of a shutdown. Other members, including Rep. Michele Bachmann and Sen. Orrin Hatch, have said that they will donate their pay to military families if a budget deal isn’t reached.

On Friday, Boehner instructed his members that they may volunteer to return their salaries via the committee that oversees day-to-day operations in the House.

“Should you desire to have your compensation returned to the United States Treasury, you may do so and House Administration Committee can assist in executing your decision,” he wrote. 

From NBC's Pete Williams
In official parlance, they’re called “spending gaps,” a term the experts prefer to “government shutdown,” because the government doesn’t fully shut down. They’ve been imposed 17 times since 1976, the year Congress began its revised budgeting process.    

PAST FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWNS

Year        Beginning date            Length in Days     Ending date
                (at midnight)

1976        Thursday, Sept 30        10                         Monday, Oct 11

1977        Friday, Sept 30             12                         Thursday, Oct 13
                Monday, Oct 31              8                         Wednesday, Nov 9
                Wednesday, Nov 30       8                         Friday, Dec 9

1978        Saturday, Sept 30         17                        Wednesday, Oct 18

1979        Sunday, Sept 30            11                        Friday, Oct 12

1981        Friday, Nov 20                 2                        Monday, Nov 23

1982        Thursday, Sept 30           1                        Saturday, Oct 2
                Friday, Dec 17                 3                        Tuesday, Dec 21

1983        Thursday, Nov 10            3                        Monday, Nov 14

1984        Sunday, Sept 30             2                        Wednesday, Oct 3
                Wednesday, Oct 3          1                        Friday, Oct 5

1986        Thursday, Oct 16            1                        Saturday, Oct 18

1987        Friday, Dec 18                1                         Sunday, Dec 20

1990        Friday, Oct 5                   3                         Tuesday, Oct 9

1995        Monday, Nov 13             5                         Sunday, Nov 19
                Friday, Dec 15                21                       Saturday, Jan 6, 1996

Republicans and Democrats remained locked in a budget impasse Friday morning, with both sides identifying different sticking points that are preventing a deal to fund the federal government.

With just over 12 hours until the deadline to pass a funding measure or shut the government down, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid pointed to a quarrel over funding women’s health centers as the reason for the continuing standoff, while House Speaker John Boehner said flatly that only differences over spending levels remain between the two warring sides.

Democrats have painted the conflict as one solely over the abortion issue, arguing that Republicans refuse to drop their push to scrap funding for Planned Parenthood even at risk of a shutdown.

Boehner disputed that Friday morning.

“There is only one reason that we do not have an agreement as yet and that issue is spending,” Boehner told the press in brief remarks. 

Reid told reporters earlier Friday that the dispute over depth of the spending reductions has been resolved and that he and Boehner have agreed on $38 billion in cuts.

The impasse solely hinges on government funding for health centers that include Planned Parenthood, an abortion provider, Reid said.

“It's an ideological battle that has nothing to do with [the] fiscal integrity of this country, everything to do with the ideology on that other side of the Capitol,” Reid said.

Aides from both parties said top negotiators, including the chiefs of staff to Boehner and Reid, worked at the Capitol until 3am ET last night without a deal. The president has asked for notification on the status of the cuts by noon.

Both House Republicans and Senate Democrats will huddle in private talks early this afternoon, and GOP leaders are expected to speak after their meeting.

The Senate took steps last night to take up and possibly amend the one-week short term continuing resolution that was passed in the House yesterday.

Boehner urged the Senate on Friday to pass that one-week measure, which would fund the Pentagon (and thus paychecks to members of the armed services) for the rest of the year. But that bill also includes deep spending cuts and a policy rider addressing abortions in the District of Columbia. The White House has said it will veto it.  

NBC's Kelly O'Donnell and Shawna Thomas contributed to this report.

Hours until tonight’s deadline, many are acting as if the spending standoff has become a Kennedy-Khrushchev-like showdown… And it’s ridiculous… But remember: It often looks the most ridiculous before the deal… The latest developments and the latest sticking points… Waiting for Superman (er, President Obama)… Our next crisis: the debt ceiling… The danger of misreading your mandate… A gray backlash over Medicare?... And Prosser retakes the lead -- big time -- in Wisconsin.

From NBC's Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** On the brink: From the look of things, many are acting as if we’re in the midst of a modern-day Kennedy-vs.-Khrushchev showdown. But instead of a standoff over nuclear missiles in Cuba, Democrats and Republicans are on the brink of a government shutdown over the difference of a few billion dollars, Planned Parenthood, and abortions in Washington, DC. (We somehow missed how Planned Parenthood was an issue in last year’s midterms. We also somehow missed the complaints when Dems voted for previous legislation with a DC abortion funding ban.) It’s all ridiculous -- something which House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer acknowledged on “TODAY” this morning. But just like it’s always darkest before dawn, it always looks the most ridiculous before the deal. The question Dem and GOP lawmakers need to ponder: Are they really going to shut down the federal government over $300 million for Planned Parenthood? That’s what the debate has really come down to.

*** The latest developments: Per NBC’s Kelly O’Donnell, aides from both parties say the top negotiators -- including the chiefs of staff to Boehner and Reid -- worked at the Capitol until 3:00 am ET without a deal. They expect to begin again around 8:00 am and expect to notify the president about their status at "mid morning." He asked to know by noon. Dem sources, O’Donnell adds, say there is "no movement on "Title X," the government funding name for health centers like Planned Parenthood. Republicans say talks stalled an impasse largely over the size of cuts -- and their composition. Both sides agree "there has been some narrowing on the riders."

*** “Further along today than we were yesterday”: After last night’s Obama-Boehner-Reid meeting, President Obama gave these remarks to cameras, “I’m not yet prepared to express wild optimism. But I think we are further along today than we were yesterday.” Also, Boehner and Reid released a JOINT statement: “We have narrowed the issues; however, we have not yet reached an agreement. We will continue to work through the night to attempt to resolve our remaining differences.” Obama has since canceled today’s visit to Indiana, and his family’s trip to Williamsburg, VA is now TBD. Roll Call is reporting that he won’t cut a final deal with Obama and Reid until he has vetted it with his GOP members at their conference meeting at noon ET. What we’re hearing from the White House is that riders like things over abortion are the outstanding differences, while Republicans insist it’s over the dollar amount. But this is not about money. As with the health-care law, this is all about the culture war.

*** Waiting for Superman: The Beltway narrative on the budget showdown has turned to Obama’s leadership. The Washington Post’s Balz asks, “Is he too slow to react? Is he diffident in the face of serious challenges? Is he reluctant to exercise the full powers of the presidency? Would events have turned out differently had he moved with greater force earlier?” And here’s Politico: “Republicans have hit President Barack Obama for being out of touch, disengaged and unwilling to lead on the budget negotiations — and Democrats aren’t wild about his taste for last-minute heroics either.” Of course, over the past two years, this narrative has popped up time and time again. Over the health-care legislation (which passed). The economy (which is improving). The BP spill (which was stopped). The tax-cut deal (which passed). Egypt (which saw a relatively peaceful transfer of power). Libya (which so far has not). And now this budget fight (whose outcome is undetermined). Once this story ends -- whenever that occurs -- we’ll move to the next crisis. But at what point do members of Congress need to take responsibility for what happens in their chambers?

*** The next crisis: the debt ceiling: And that next crisis, by the way, will probably be over raising the debt ceiling. And if you thought this spending fight has been tough to resolve, just wait until we reach that battle later this year. In our latest NBC/WSJ poll, only 16% say the debt ceiling should be raised, versus 46% who say it shouldn’t; 38% say they don’t know enough. But when respondents were told that failing to raise the debt ceiling would make the government unable to pay its bills and that the government would default on its debt payments, that 16% moved up to just 32%. Meanwhile, 62% said the ceiling SHOULD NOT be raised because doing so would make it harder to get the nation’s financial house in order. And then get ready for the 2012 budget fight this fall…

*** Misreading your mandate: Looking at the current spending fight -- as well as the House GOP effort to phase out Medicare -- National Journal’s Charlie Cook makes this point: “One of the biggest and most frequent mistakes in politics is for a party to misread its mandate. When it happens, independent and swing voters get angry and punish a candidate or a party on Election Day. Because American politics is a zero-sum game, punishing one party means rewarding the other party—even when the latter is not necessarily deserving of support. Frequently, the party that benefits from the spanking mistakenly interprets it to mean that the public is embracing every aspect of its agenda. Republicans shouldn’t forget that their party had dismal favorable/unfavorable poll ratings last fall. They won because they weren’t Democrats.”

*** A gray backlash? And in his weekly National Journal column, Ron Brownstein explains why Republicans trying to touch Medicare is so potentially perilous for the GOP in 2012. “Republicans won about three-fifths of white seniors in both the 2008 presidential and 2010 House elections, and they now hold 99 of the 150 House districts with the highest proportion of the elderly. A gray backlash could cost them dearly (especially if President Obama, Clinton-like, successfully links the GOP tax-cut and Medicare proposals).” Brownstein also notes that this is the FIFTH time since 1980 that Republicans “have followed an electoral breakthrough by attempting to restructure Medicare or Social Security.”

*** Prosser takes back the lead: Meanwhile, in Wisconsin’s still-undecided state Supreme Court race, conservative David Prosser has regained the lead -- big time. The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports: “Waukesha County Clerk Kathy Nickolaus said Thursday that she failed to save on her computer and then report 14,315 votes in the city of Brookfield, omitting them entirely in an unofficial total she released after Tuesday's election. With other smaller errors in Waukesha County, Prosser gained 7,582 votes over his challenger, JoAnne Kloppenburg, leaving the sitting justice significantly ahead for now amid ongoing official counting.” And it was all because Nickolaus said she forgot to hit save on her computer. Wow.

Countdown to continuing resolution’s expiration: midnight ET
Countdown to NY-26 special election: 46 days
Countdown to Iowa GOP straw poll: 126 days
Countdown to Election Day 2011: 214 days
Countdown to the Iowa caucuses: 304 days
* Note: When the IA caucuses take place depends on whether other states move up

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The Boston Globe’s six-column banner front-page headline: “Nation girds for a shutdown.”

The Hill’s headline: “Brinkmanship and traded barbs in the shadow of a shutdown.”

The New York Times on the outstanding differences: “The two sides appeared to be only a few billion dollars apart on the level of spending to be approved for the balance of this year, a relatively small gap in a $3.5 trillion budget. Negotiations appeared to be hung up mostly over Republican demands to tighten restrictions on financing for abortions and to limit environmental regulations, and by Mr. Boehner’s desire to squeeze every dollar in cuts out of the Democrats that he could.”

“Senate Democrats are likely to try to pass a short-term spending bill of their own if Majority Leader Harry Reid, Speaker John Boehner and President Barack Obama fail to reach a breakthrough at a White House meeting Thursday night,” Roll Call reports. “Senate Budget Chairman Kent Conrad said Democrats would offer a short-term spending bill if talks break down, the North Dakota Democrat said after a caucus meeting Thursday afternoon. The bill would include funding for troops for the remainder of the fiscal year, but it would not include policy riders sought by House Republicans.”

House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA) “contended that there is bipartisan support in the Senate for the bill, which the House passed with the support of 15 Democrats on Thursday afternoon. ‘It is utterly unfathomable why Democrats in the Senate and the White House don’t recognize the fiscal crisis we are facing,’ he told reporters doing a news conference shortly after the House vote,” Roll Call writes.

“As it appeared increasingly likely Thursday afternoon that the government would shut down Saturday, House Democrats said they would push a measure that would restore pay for furloughed government employees,” Roll Call reports.

How about these fighting words from Chuck Schumer: "Speaker Boehner is somebody we all have a great deal of affection for and sympathy for," Schumer said on the Senate floor, per The Hill. "But you know, Mr. President, the hour is nigh and leadership is called for. And to allow this small group … to dominate everything that is happening and hurt millions of innocent people is not leadership." (“The hour is nigh”?)

Tea Party freshman Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT), per The Hill: “Why was it that a few months ago … when the president had both Houses under the control of his party — why did he opt not to pass a budget for fiscal year 2011? … “It was either irresponsible on one hand or deliberate and malicious on the other with intention to bring about a sequence of events that would culminate inevitably in a government shutdown.”

Here’s one consolation prize: “In the event of a government shutdown, two of Capitol Hill's most popular watering holes want to make sure that congressional staffers can still afford a cocktail,” The Hill writes. They’re talking one-cent beers for those with congressional Ids and half-priced martinis.

“The House voted Thursday to block Environmental Protection Agency climate regulations, a win for Republicans who have put hobbling the agency's greenhouse gas rules at the top of their policy agenda,” The Hill reports. “But the Senate rejected the same measure Wednesday and the White House has threatened to veto the legislation, leaving the likelihood of the bill becoming law very small.”

“Sen. Charles Schumer is expected to support legislation backed by the banking industry that would put him into conflict with Sen. Dick Durbin, a rival to succeed Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.),” The Hill reports.

Politico writes, "Republicans have hit President Barack Obama for being out of touch, disengaged and unwilling to lead on the budget negotiations — and Democrats aren’t wild about his taste for last-minute heroics either."

But: "Administration officials say that’s flat wrong and that Obama’s team has been quietly working with lawmakers for weeks. The president’s late entry into direct talks was a calculated strategy, they say, to avoid overexposing Democrats’ sole marquee star and to gain maximum leverage after House Republicans and Senate Democrats fell short of an agreement. And to the doubters, they say it works."

The Washington Post's Balz adds, "If Obama has shown anything in his two-plus years in the White House, it is a combination of substantive ambition and procedural caution. Add to that an innate distaste for ideological confrontation and his dislike for the demands of the 24/7 news cycle that often rules Washington’s political community. His advisers argue that his forward thinking, his persistence and his patience have produced desired results and allowed him to achieve notable successes. But they have come at the price of doubts about the strength of his leadership and his commitment to take on the fights that his supporters think are necessary."

President Obama said this last night, per Roll Call: “What I’ve said to the Speaker and what I’ve said to Harry Reid is because the machinery of the shutdown is necessarily starting to move, I expect an answer in the morning. And my hope is, is that I’ll be able to announce to the American people sometime relatively early in the day that a shutdown has been averted.” More: “The president postponed a trip to Indianapolis that he had scheduled for Friday, the White House announced late Thursday, but another planned trip to Williamsburg, Va., was still possible.” Yet, per The Hill, the president said: "I'm not yet prepared to express wild optimism, but we're further along today than we were yesterday," Obama said in his second late-night visit to the White House briefing room in about 24 hours.

But: “Boehner has been adamant that any agreement should be able to garner the 218 GOP votes to pass it, and he won’t cut a deal with Reid and Obama until he has vetted it with his members. The earliest he could do so is at a planned Conference meeting at noon Friday.”

Former Reagan Budget Director David Stockman tells the Daily Beast: “Bring it on! “I think the Republicans need to stand rigidly firm and shut the government down for a few days. The Obama White House is weak. If the Republicans hold the line, Obama will fold faster than a lawn chair. And the Republicans will get their $60 billion in reductions.” (Hat tip: Taegan Goddard.)

“Lawmakers overwhelmingly applauded the notion of Gen. David Petraeus heading the CIA, but some stopped shy of endorsing the current agency boss as the best candidate for Defense secretary,” The Hill writes.

Prince Charles is headed to the White House while in Washington May 3-5.

“A conservative-leaning Wisconsin county corrected its count yesterday, giving an unofficial 7,500-vote lead to the incumbent in the hotly contested state Supreme Court race seen as a referendum on Governor Scott Walker’s divisive union-rights law,” AP reports. “Waukesha County Clerk Kathy Nickolaus said the votes weren’t reported Tuesday because of ‘human error.’ ‘This is not a case of extra votes or extra ballots being found,’ she said.”

Ctrl-S is your friend: “In one explosive stroke Thursday, the clerk in a Republican stronghold tilted the tight Supreme Court race in favor of Justice David Prosser by recovering thousands of untallied votes for the incumbent,” the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports. “Waukesha County Clerk Kathy Nickolaus said Thursday that she failed to save on her computer and then report 14,315 votes in the city of Brookfield, omitting them entirely in an unofficial total she released after Tuesday's election. With other smaller errors in Waukesha County, Prosser gained 7,582 votes over his challenger, JoAnne Kloppenburg, leaving the sitting justice significantly ahead for now amid ongoing official counting.”

BACHMANN: Rep. Michelle Bachmann will be the “fifth and final participant” at the Americans for Prosperity Foundation’s summit on April 29 in Manchester, NH, Roll Call reports. The other four are Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, Rick Santorum, and Herman Cain.

BARBOUR: While visiting lawmakers in Tallahassee, FL, Haley Barbour said he would run in the state’s primary “whenever they have it,” declining to say whether he thought Florida should be punished for having an early primary, the Miami Herald writes.

CHRISTIE: “Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey said it would be an ‘obscenity’ to not take on the teachers union, which is protecting ‘lousy’ educators as he seeks to overhaul tenure and improve student performance,” Bloomberg reports. It’s worth pointing out that for all the bluster New Jersey public schools are among the highest performing in the country.

DANIELS: Although the White House has canceled the trip, Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels would have greeted President Obama on the tarmac in Indianapolis today when the president arrived for an event at a transmission plant, The Hill says.

GINGRICH: Newt Gingrich penned a letter on behalf of the NAACP endorsing their drive for alternatives to prison, Politico’s Ben Smith writes.

Gingrich will hold a fundraiser in Atlanta, GA, April 13, the Greenfield Reporter says.

HUNTSMAN: Jon Huntsman’s harsh criticism of China during his last public address as the American ambassador there reveals possibilities for how Huntsman could campaign for the presidency, The Hill writes. He “could initiate a very serious campaign discussion of Chinese manipulation of its currency, and unfair Chinese trade practices that damage New Hampshire and other American workers as part of a larger discussion about the American and world economies… This approach, consistent with recent Huntsman moves and his political style, would bring a ‘grownup’ message that many voters want.”

Sen. Mike Lee and Rep. Jason Chaffetz, who both worked for Huntsman while he was governor of Utah, were mum on whom they’d support for president if both Huntsman and Mitt Romney ended up running, the Salt Lake Tribune writes.

PAWLENTY: Tim Pawlenty’s exploratory committee is planning a fundraiser on May 18 in Minneapolis, Minnesota Public Radio reports. “Someone with knowledge of the event told us the evening gathering in Minneapolis is one of several scheduled around the country. It's not clear who is invited to the Minneapolis fundraiser, how much money will be raised or how many people will be there.”

TRUMP: New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie told ABC he doesn’t think Donald Trump -- whom he calls “a really good friend of mine” -- really wants to be president or take the Republican nomination, The New York Times writes.     

MASSACHUSETTS: “Former Governor Mitt Romney should be flattered by national Democrats’ efforts to delay next year’s Massachusetts presidential primary, but the overly clever ploy to undermine moderate Republicans is an insult to everyone who actually votes in the Commonwealth,” the Boston Globe’s editorial page writes.

VIRGINIA: “Virginia Senate candidate George Allen (R) apologized Wednesday to an African-American reporter for asking him, ‘What position did you play?’ in an incident that evoked his infamous ‘macaca’ gaffe,” The Hill writes, adding, “The incident renewed debate over whether Allen has learned his lesson since making a costly racial remark during his failed 2006 Senate campaign.”

WASHINGTON: “The Washington state Senate has approved a measure that suspends the 2012 presidential primary to save $10 million in the next two-year budget. The measure directs the Secretary of State to suspend the presidential primary, leaving only caucuses for the Democratic and Republican parties to allocate delegates for their national conventions,” AP reports.  

After a Thursday night meeting with House Speaker John Boehner and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, President Obama announced there is still no agreement on a plan to fund the government through the rest of this fiscal year but held out the possibility of a deal by early Friday morning.

Following White House meetings on Wednesday night and again on Thursday afternoon, Reid and Boehner appeared together to speak about the negotiations.  But neither spoke after the latest meeting, instead opting to issue a joint statement reading:  "We have narrowed the issues, however, we have not yet reached an agreement. We will continue to work through the night to attempt to resolve our remaining differences.”

Obama echoed that sentiment, saying, "We made some additional progress this evening."  But he noted the late hour of the negotiations and attempted to put a timetable on the matter.  "My hope is I’ll be able to announce to the American people sometime relatively early in the day that a shutdown has been averted," Obama said.

The government would begin to shut down non-essential services beginning at midnight on Friday if congress fails to pass some spending measure.

From NBC's Shawna Thomas and Carrie Dann
While all federal agencies are required to write and maintain shutdown plans, very few of those plans are available to the general public. 

Congressional staffers – the group of federal employees closest to the lawmakers who could create or avoid a shutdown – have more information than most, but some say that there are still a lot of unanswered questions for Capitol Hill aides.

The House Administration Committee offers a new website to help explain how congressional offices should navigate a shutdown.  Salley Wood, communications director for the committee, said the site -- which can be found here -- went live on Tuesday when the committee issued its initial guidance to congressional offices.  

But while that information is more than many other workers have, aides say there is still a lot of uncertainty about what a shutdown might mean for the thousands of federal employees who work on the Hill.

"There's no question that House Admin is in a tough spot, but the information has not been as accessible as we’d like,” said one Democratic aide. “There may be more information going to Chiefs of Staff, but most staff members feel a little in the dark." 

For some aides, they may be “in the dark” because their individual offices are keeping them there. It is up to each office to decide, based on a three-pronged set of criteria, who is essential and non-essential.  

Wood said that the committee did not "instruct any timing" for the offices to make those staffing decisions, although they recommended that offices give employees ample notice of the possibility of a furlough. 

Per the federal code, “essential” congressional staffers:

1. perform activities "that entail or directly support Members’ performance of their constitutional responsibilities (including activities that entail the protection of the House’s and Members’ constitutional prerogatives)."

2.  perform activities that entail the safe-guarding of human life;

3.  perform activities that entail the protection of property.

According to committee guidance, that would definitely mean furloughs for the staff at the House Gift Shop, guides at the Capitol Visitors Center, the Botanic Gardens and the Flag Office.

But the first of the three standards is fairly broad, leading some members of Congress to say that they expect to keep most or all of their staff members at work even if there is a shutdown.

Rep. Jan Schakowsky, D-Ill., said yesterday, "I believe that especially during a shutdown that every member of my staff is going to be essential to answer all of the questions." 

House Oversight and Government Reform Committee Chairman Darrell Issa, R-Calif., tweeted Wednesday, “If gov't shuts down, we won't. I believe those who choose to come into work fall under my Constitutional arm. Accountability must continue.”

Another unanswered question for employees: whether or not furloughed staff members can count on back pay.

During past government shutdowns, all furloughed workers did eventually receive delayed paychecks, but nothing in current law guarantees that they will this time around if a shutdown occurs.

That’s a point made sharply in a newly-published document from the Administration Committee explaining how offices should plan on navigating a shutdown.

The document reads:

Historically, when the federal government's funding has lapsed, the subsequent spending authority (whether

Continuing Resolution or an enacted appropriations bill) has provided for retroactive payment to employees.

This, however, is not guaranteed. The exact details of retroactive payment (if any is authorized) will depend

on the language of a continuing resolution or enacted appropriations bill. The normal payroll cycle may be

disrupted by a lapse in appropriations and checks may be issued at irregular times.

Rep. Jim Moran, D-Va., announced late Thursday that he is introducing legislation to guarantee that federal workers get back pay in the event of a shutdown.  But there's no word on whether the legislation, which he is cosponsoring with fellow northern Virginian Rep. Frank Wolf, R-Va., will get a vote on the House floor.

NBC's Luke Russert contributed.

From msnbc.com's Tom Curry:
Warning of the effects of a partial federal government shutdown President Obama said Wednesday that it “means that small business owners who are counting on that loan to open their business, to make payroll, to expand, suddenly they can't do it.”

Was he correct?

The federal Small Business Administration said that in the event of shutdown there will be no new approvals of some types of SBA loan applications.

SBA estimates that each week the agency is shut down would mean more than $400 million in capital that will not be going to small businesses through SBA-supported lending. This would work out to over 1,000 small businesses a week not getting loans.

Some types of SBA loans will continue to be processed, such as Disaster Assistance loans for homeowners, renters and businesses.

According to the American Bankers Association, less than 10 percent of small business loans are backed by the SBA.

According to ABA spokeswoman Carol Kaplan, “Since less than 10 percent of commercial loans are SBA-backed, the overall impact of a shutdown would be minimal. However, a shutdown would mean that SBA loans currently in the pipeline -- which normally take weeks to process -- would be held up even longer. For a company that is relying on an SBA-backed loan, the delay could have a serious impact.”

Small businesses are defined by the SBA as those having fewer than 500 employees. They represent 99.9 percent of the nation’s businesses.

According to a study by the National Federation of Independent Businesses, about 5 percent of small businesses participate in SBA finance related programs. 

So, said NFIB spokeswoman Cynthia Magnuson, the group does not agree with Obama’s assessment, since a government shutdown “would not impact the vast majority of small-business owners. Moreover, we’re not hearing from our members that they are at all worried about SBA funding. Our members are more concerned that Washington gets its spending under control and reaches a sustainable budget solution that protects small businesses from economic uncertainty.”

(NFIB’s political action committee gives mostly to Republican candidates.)

When Obama referred to small business owners relying on loans to make their payroll, he might have been compressing the time frame.

It takes weeks for the loans to be processed -- so an owner wouldn’t get his loan in time to make next week’s payroll. And a small firm facing urgent payroll demands might not qualify for a loan to begin with.

Obama also warned of the impact of a shutdown on home mortgage lending, saying a shutdown “means folks who are potentially processing a mortgage, they may not be able to get it.”

Melanie Roussell, a spokeswoman for the Department of Housing and Urban Development, said that during a government shutdown, the Federal Housing Administration staff will not be on duty to underwrite or approve any new loans.

In 2010 FHA insurance was provided for 40 percent of the purchase market and 9 percent of the house refinance market. Last year, 80 percent of all FHA-backed loans were for first-time homebuyers. “In the recent market, where private capital has not been available, FHA has stepped in. FHA serves a much larger share of the market than we have in previous years,” Roussell said. Since the last federal government shutdown in 1995-1996, FHA market share has more than doubled, she said.

Few people are nostalgic about the 26 days of shutdowns that froze the federal government in the waning months of 1995.

But the possibility of the first federal shutdown since the Macarena was cool has a lot of people recalling an era when a compromise to avoid a shutdown was a “Jagged Little Pill” for both sides to swallow … an age when lines of Alicia Silverstone’s dialogue from Clueless aptly described how the American public viewed Congress ….  a time when people unironically used the exclamation "Psych!"

Yeah… remember the 90s?

Two shutdowns lasted from November 14 through November 19, 1995 and from December 16, 1995 to January 6, 1996. At the time, the first edition of Dreams from My Father had just been published; Rep. John Boehner was giving President Bill Clinton coal for Christmas, and it was unusual to see a news story in which the Speaker of the House (Newt Gingrich) cried in public.

And the year that brought you the last government shutdown also brought you virtual pets, Pinky and the Brain, and Cal Ripken’s record-breaking 2,131th consecutive game.

Here’s some other tidbits from what trends, flicks, and tunes were --  um, “phat”? --  the last time that a congressional budget impasse caused federal workers to wonder how “essential” they really were:

• In December 1995, “One Sweet Day” by Boyz II Men (feat. Mariah Carey) topped the Billboard charts.  Also big in the last months of the year that also brought you the original Saved by the Bell! soundtrack: Coolio’s "Gangster’s Paradise" and “Waterfalls” by TLC.
• The Beatles were back, with Anthology  1 leading album sales, while recent releases like Hootie’s Cracked Rear Viewand Alanis Morisette’s 16x platinum international debut were still selling like hotcakes for the holiday season.
• As the shutdown dragged on through the nation’s New Year’s Eve celebration, viewers of "Dick Clark’s New Year’s Rockin Eve" could enjoy the talents of Yasmine Bleeth of Baywatch, Jamie Walters of Beverly Hills 90210, Brandy, the Goo Goo Dolls, and the Rembrandts (famous for the song “I’ll Be There for You” -  the theme of Friends, which was in its second season. You know, the one when Monica was dating Tom Selleck?)
• Kids flicks Jumanji and the original Toy Story movie were vying for first place at the box office. Moviegoers could have also enjoyed Mortal Kombat, Ace Ventura: When Nature Calls, Get Shorty, or GoldenEye.
• Lovers of a snarky towhead and his chummy stuffed tiger were mourning the end of comic strip Calvin & Hobbes, which signed off on the last day of 1995.
• The Christmas of Tickle-me-Elmo was yet to come (that was 1996), but Beanie Babies were a top toy for holiday gift-giving in 1995.  Pogs remained big with the kids, as did all forms of plastic incarnations of Toy Story protagonists Buzz Lightyear and Sheriff Woody.

And this one’s for all the congressional staffers who may not be able to use their Blackberries to check their work emails during a potential shutdown… In 1995, Motorola unveiled its StarTac mobile phone, the lightest cell phone made to date.  Its price tag: $1000.

Ironic.

Don'cha think?  

From msnbc.com's Tom Curry:  With no accord between the president and Congress on a spending plan for the remainder of this fiscal year, much less any prospect of reaching a budget consensus for the new fiscal year which starts in October, the government has reached the halfway point in fiscal year 2011.

The Congressional Budget Office reported Thursday that federal spending is growing more slowly than revenue – once you adjust the data for some special factors such as pre-payment of Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation premiums.

The encouraging news in the CBO report is that revenues are up 7 percent, compared to the first six months of the previous year. Personal income tax revenues jumped by more than 20 percent, compared to the same period last year, evidence of a recovery in incomes and in hiring.  (About 1.3 million more people were working last month than in March of 2010.)

CBO said that overall spending growth is outrunning revenue growth: total outlays were up by $179 billion, or 11 percent. But it said that figure was skewed by special factors in the previous fiscal year, such as the FDIC pre-payments.

So CBO said adjusted federal spending growth – sifting out the onetime factors – is at about one percent.

National income, or gross domestic product, is growing by about 3.5 percent. So if that trend were to continue – faster GDP growth than federal spending growth – the deficit would begin to shrink.

The fastest growing categories of spending in the first half of the fiscal year: interest on the government debt, which was up 13 percent and the Medicaid health insurance program for low-income people, up by nearly 9 percent.

The cost of paying interest on the debt now accounts for nearly 7 percent of all federal outlays.

The level of federal debt is now higher than at any time since 1947 when the government was paying off the costs of fighting the Second World War. CBO forecasts that it will go even higher in the years ahead.

“With such a large increase in debt, plus an expected increase in interest rates as the economic recovery strengthens, interest payments on the debt are poised to skyrocket over the next decade,” CBO warned last January.

Raising the federal government’s borrowing limit will dominate congressional debate in the next several weeks, with Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner having warned Congress this week that the debt limit will be reached no later than May 16.

A new NBC News /Wall Street Journal poll showed that only 16 percent of those polled think Congress should raise the debt ceiling; 46 percent opposed the ideas and 38 percent said they didn’t know enough to have an opinion.

AP

House Speaker John Boehner, right, and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid walk outside the White House to talk to reporters after their meeting with President Obama regarding the budget and possible government shutdown.

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro and Athena Jones
House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV), standing side-by-side, emerged from the White House moments ago to say that the two sides had still not yet been able to strike a deal.

There's "no agreement" yet, Boehner said, calling the meeting "polite" and "to the point." But both Boehner and Reid said talks will continue. Staffers will begin another round of negotiations at 3:00 pm ET, and the principals will return to the White House at 7:00 pm ET for more talks.

"We are continuing to work toward an agreement," Boehner said. "All of us believe we can get to an agreement, but we're not there yet."

Boehner reiterated that he asked President Obama to sign the bold stopgap measure he declared would "fund our troops and keep the government open."

“I did ask the president to sign the stopgap measure we passed to fund our troops and to keep our government open and I did express to the president my disappointment that he suggested he would veto that bill,” Boehner said. “Our goal is to reduce spending in order to lead to a better environment for job creation in America and I do believe that it's important that we take this moment and get the largest spending cuts possible that'll help our economy."

Republicans proposed, and just passed, a one-week continuing resolution that would cut an additional $12 billion in federal funding. President Obama has vowed to veto that. The bill has become a political football for Republicans, and is much more than a "troop-funding bill," as the GOP suggests. There are so-called "riders" in the bill that would cut funding to Planned Parenthood, and more, that would do little to cut the deficit but are ideological elements important to the conservative base.

(Riders are defined by the U.S. Senate as: "Informal term for a nongermane amendment to a bill or an amendment to an appropriation bill that changes the permanent law governing a program funded by the bill.")

For context, that number is more than the last two CRs combined -- $10 billion over the last five weeks.

That stop gap bill would not have passed the Senate, according to Reid.

House Democrats have proposed to no avail a "clean" CR that would keep funding levels the same for a week. That is not likely to see the light of day in the Republican-controlled House.

"We'll see you back here at 7 o'clock," Reid joked at the beginning of his remarks. He said both sides "had a frank discussion" and said he is "disappointed we haven't gotten something done at this point." He stressed, "In a matter of a little more than 24 hours, unless we work something out, the government will shut down,” Reid said, before going on to cite a private-sector report that estimated even a temporary shutdown would pare 0.2% from the GDP. “We are going to continue to work to get this done. It's uh not easy to do, but it's doable and as I said we don't have a lot of time to do that.”

Reid added that he's hoping they will have a deal after they meet at 7:00 pm ET.

From NBC's Luke Russert
The House just passed a temporary one-week spending bill that would fund the government for another week, fund the Pentagon through the rest of fiscal year 2011, and cut $12 billion in spending.

The vote was 247-181.

The White House has threatened to veto this bill if it comes to the president's desk, and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid called it “a nonstarter” this morning.