“A budget estimate released yesterday says that the spending bill negotiated between President Obama and House Speaker John Boehner would produce less than 1 percent of the $38 billion in claimed savings by the end of this budget year,” the AP says. “The Congressional Budget Office estimate shows that the spending bill due for a House vote today would cut just $352 million from the deficit through Sept. 30. About $8 billion in cuts to domestic programs and foreign aid by then are offset by nearly equal increases in defense spending.”

Roll Call calls the debt-limit fight a test for Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. It also reveals some strategy being mulled by Republicans: “allowing a debt limit increase to pass with just Democratic support as a way to make Democrats solely responsible for what likely will be a politically challenging vote and also to pressure Democrats to agree to ‘serious spending reforms.” But “several conservative GOP Senators with tea party ties on Wednesday were unwilling to rule out using the filibuster as a tool to get Democrats to agree to spending reforms such as statutory spending caps and a balanced-budget amendment that they are demanding as part of any increase in the debt ceiling.”

“Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) could be in for a rowdy welcome from unions and liberal groups when he comes to Capitol Hill on Thursday to testify about his work on reducing the state’s budget deficit,” The Hill writes. “A coalition of liberal groups including People for the American Way, Common Cause and Public Campaign is scheduled to give a press conference outside the hearing room before Walker testifies, and union members are traveling in from Wisconsin to attend.”

“Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) has vowed to bring the Senate to a standstill unless congressional leaders agree to allocate $40,000 for a federal study on deepening the Port of Charleston,” The Hill writes, adding, “The senator suffered a setback last week when Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) and Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) did not include the funding in the 2011 budget deal. Graham said he will not block the budget agreement to keep the government funded through the end of September but that he will hold up all other business until the matter is resolved.”

BARBOUR: The Boston Globe’s Johnson on Barbour’s visit to New Hampshire yesterday: “Southern charm collided with Yankee skepticism last night as Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour made his first visit of the year to New Hampshire as a prospective presidential candidate.” Barbour “was peppered with questions about everything from his views on spending cuts and entitlement reform to US intervention in Libya, as voters in the lead presidential primary state upheld their tradition as vetters-in-chief of would-be commanders-in-chief.” He reiterated his view of the Afghanistan war, too.

CHRISTIE: Politico links to a Rutgers-Eagelton poll showing only 22% of registered voters in New Jersey would support a 2012 presidential bid by Gov. Chris Christie, while 65% would oppose it.

GINGRICH: Newt Gingrich’s camp released a statement after President Obama’s speech, saying that it showed “shows he has learned nothing about how to win the future. He continues to operate with a left wing worldview that will hurt seniors, kill jobs, raise gas prices, and increase our crushing debt.” 

Gingrich later told the AP that he thought “Obama's decision to focus on Wisconsin U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan's budget proposal made the Democratic president look weak. ‘It was as if Ryan was the president and he was a desperate challenger,’” Gingrich said.

JOHNSON: “Former N.M. Gov. Gary Johnson will jump into the 2012 GOP presidential primary on April 21 in New Hampshire,” NM Politics reports.

PAWLENTY: After the president’s speech Tim Pawlenty released a statement criticizing it as “window dressing,” but went on to specifically slam the $38 billion budget deal Congress agreed on late last week: “The more we learn about the budget deal the worse it looks.  When you consider that the federal deficit in February alone was over $222 billion, to have actual cuts less than the $38 billion originally advertised is just not serious,” the statement reads.

“Pawlenty's position is well to the right of House Republican leaders, who hailed the measure after negotiations finished,” MinnPost notes.  “In fact, on this point he has allied with Michele Bachmann (who opposes it because it doesn't strip out health reform implementation funding) over Speaker John Boehner, whose deal Pawlenty blasted.”

ROMNEY: “President Obama has fallen behind Mitt Romney in the essential battleground of Florida, according to a pair of polls released this week,” Politico reports. The newest numbers come from a Suffolk University/7NEWS survey that shows Romney ahead by a single point, 43 percent to 42 percent. Romney had a slightly wider, 5-point lead in a Ron Sachs Communications/Mason-Dixon poll published Monday, edging Obama 48 percent to 43 percent.”

Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick praised his state’s health care plan on the fifth anniversary of its signing. Patrick has been making the media rounds, talking about it at a panel discussion at the Center for American Progress, NPR, CNN, MSNBC, and The Daily Show with Jon Stewart. But the Boston Globe writes: “The governor did not respond when given a chance to link former governor Mitt Romney to the state’s plan, which was crafted under the Republican’s leadership. Democrats have used the law’s anniversary this week to tweak Romney, a likely presidential candidate, by thanking him for signing a law many Republicans outside the state do not support.”

SANTORUM: The http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5g7ocyMb-PmRZLuJirNMSlJ6MCPDQ?docId=b68839e541194ec8ac1ef757668910a8">AP: “Former Sen. Rick Santorum on Wednesday announced a fundraising committee that allows him to take the first steps toward a presidential campaign.”

“We're going to determine over the next few weeks as to whether the resources are going be there” for a presidential bid, Santorum said, according to NBC’s Lauren Selsky.

MICHIGAN: “Michigan Democrats said Wednesday they'll pick their presidential favorite in 2012 through a May 5 caucus, avoiding the national party threats, candidate withdrawals and talk of a ‘do-over’ that came after they moved up their 2008 primary to Jan. 15 in spite of party rules,” the AP reports. State Republicans, however, could still hold on to the earlier Feb. 28 date that is currently set by Michigan law. 

FLORIDA: “State House Speaker Dean Cannon announced legislation Wednesday afternoon that could resolve the standoff over Florida's presidential primary date: Setting up a committee with the authority to choose a date any time from early January to early March,” the Tampa Tribune reports. “Under the new law, the governor, House speaker and Senate president would each appoint three members, no more than two from one party, to a presidential primary date selection committee. The Florida secretary of state, who is an appointee of the governor, would be the non-voting chairman. The committee would have sole authority to set the date of the state's primary, making its choice by October.”

President Obama and Congress may have agreed to a spending plan for the rest of the year, but there are still plenty of fiscal battles ahead, including on the debt ceiling and on the 2012 budget. Mark Murray and Domenico Montanaro talk with special guest NBC Congressional correspondent Kelly O'Donnell.

Video was shot by Ali Weinberg and Jason Seher. Edited by Ali Weinberg.

From msnbc.com's Carrie Dann and NBC's Shawna Thomas
Just hours after sitting in the front row while the president verbally walloped his plan to reduce the debt, Rep. Paul Ryan called President Obama’s speech on deficit reduction “a political broadside” and accused the White House of “poisoning wells” on the budget debate.

"What we heard today was not fiscal leadership from our commander in chief,” Ryan said. “What we heard today is a political broadside from our campaigner in chief.”

Calling the president’s speech “very sad,” the House Budget Committee chief said he had previously viewed Obama’s invitation to attend his remarks at George Washington University as an “olive branch."

“Instead what we got was a speech that was excessively partisan,  dramatically inaccurate, and hopelessly inadequate to addressing our country's fiscal challenges,” he said.

Obama did not mention Ryan by name in his address, but he issued a fierce condemnation of one of his plan’s most controversial proposals: phasing out Medicare in favor of a privatized voucher system. “"Put simply," Obama said of Ryan’s plan, “it ends Medicare as we know it.”

On Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid reforms floated by House Republicans, Obama made the case that “we would not be a great country without those commitments” to those in need of safety net programs.

Ryan countered Wednesday that Obama’s remarks contained no new solutions to address the debt issue and that the president’s remarks merely exploited fear rather than proposing a serious solution.  

“We don’t need partisanship,” Ryan said. “We don’t need demagoguery.”

From NBC's Jim Miklaszewski
In what appears to be a shot across the bow, the Pentagon warned today that future cuts in defense spending could threaten national security and "should be shaped by strategy and policy, not budget math."

A statement from Pentagon spokesman Georff Morrell warned that further cuts in defense spending "can not be accomplished without reducing force structure or military capabilities."

Morrell went on to say that negotiations on future Pentagon budgets must be about "managing risks associated with future threats and national security" and consideration of what "future missions the national is willing to forego."

He said the review process for an additional $400 billion cut in defense spending could not be completed in time for the 2012 budget and suggested the additional cuts would not take effect until 2013.

From NBC's Athena Jones
President Barack Obama called on both parties Wednesday to work together "to restore the fiscal responsibility that served us so well in the 1990s," as he laid out his own vision for how to tackle the nation's long-term fiscal challenges.

During a roughly 50-minute speech at George Washington University, Obama offered what he termed a "balanced approach" to getting the deficit under control by keeping domestic spending low, cutting defense spending, reducing excess health care spending, and reforming the tax code. The president's plan would reduce the deficit by $4 trillion over "12 years or less."

"Any serious plan to tackle our deficit will require us to put everything on the table, and take on excess spending wherever it exists in the budget," Obama said. "A serious plan doesn't require us to balance our budget overnight - in fact, economists think that with the economy just starting to grow again, we need a phased-in approach - but it does require tough decisions and support from our leaders in both parties now."

Total outstanding US debt stands at about $14.2 trillion, according to the Treasury Department, while the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office estimates the deficit for FY2011 alone will reach some $1.5 trillion.

While the president has frequently sprinkled his speeches with references to the need to reduce America's growing deficit -- often mentioning that it's one he inherited when he took office -- he has rarely devoted this much time at one event to laying out the steps he is willing to take.

The fight over how to bring the deficit under control is likely to play out during the battles over the FY2012 budget and raising the nation's debt limit. Administration officials are hoping today's speech will help show deficit-minded voters the president is serious about putting the nation on a firmer fiscal footing, while continuing to invest in areas like education, infrastructure and research and development that will help accelerate economic growth, create jobs and help the country compete on the global stage.

"We have to live within our means, we have to reduce our deficit, and we have to get back on a path that will allow us to pay down our debt," the president said. "And we have to do it in a way that protects the recovery, and protects the investments we need to grow, create jobs, and win the future."

* Proposals and reaction
Obama's proposal builds off of the deficit reduction measures included in his 2012 budget and borrows from the recommendations of the fiscal commission he created. The plan would cut non-security discretionary spending by $770 billion by 2023, reduce defense spending by $400 billion, reduce health care spending by $480 billion over that period and an additional $1 trillion over the subsequent decade, lower Medicaid spending by at least $100 billion and Medicare spending by at least $200 billion over 10 years. Obama also wants to see $360 billion in spending reductions for mandatory programs like agricultural subsidies, federal pension insurance and anti-fraud measures by 2023.

He has proposed a "debt failsafe" that he said would hold him -- and Washington -- accountable for failing to reach the goals he is setting. The plan would include a trigger that would require across-the-board spending reductions if, by 2014, the national debt is not projected to fall as a share of the economy.

The president said little on Social Security, which he does not believe is in crisis, arguing only that there should be a bipartisan effort to strengthen the costly entitlement program.

The speech was short on specifics on how to achieve the proposed cuts -- in fact one senior administration official conceded on a conference call before the speech that the White House was "putting forward a framework and we're not trying to lock down every detail."

Still, the president made a point of drawing a distinction between his approach and the one proposed by Congressman Paul Ryan, the Wisconsin Republican whose plan for cutting $4.4 trillion from the deficit the White House believes favors the wealthy at the expense of seniors, the disabled and the poor.

Obama said Ryan's plan had been championed by House Republicans and "embraced by several of their party's presidential candidates" -- a notable reference to the upcoming 2012 campaign -- and said the congressman deserved credit for putting one forward. But he argued the plan's cuts to clean energy, education and transportation and the changes it would make to Medicare and Medicaid would result in a "fundamentally different" nation than the one Americans have known throughout most of the country's history. 

"This vision is less about reducing the deficit than it is about changing the basic social compact in America," the president said of the Republican budget. "I don't think there's anything courageous about asking for sacrifice from those who can least afford it."

The president has also proposed allowing the Bush-era tax rates for the wealthy -- couples making more than $250,000 and individuals making $200,000 -- to expire -- a move Republicans have already said they oppose. The president tried to end those tax breaks last year to fulfill a promise he made during the presidential campaign, but was stymied. In today's speech, he said he would "refuse" to renew those cuts again.

Obama and Vice President Biden briefed a bipartisan group of lawmakers on the plan this morning, including House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH), Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), Representatives Eric Cantor (R-VA) and Steny Hoyer (D-MD), Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV), Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and  Senators Dick Durbin (D-IL) and Jon Kyl (R-AZ). The president has asked Boehner, Reid, Pelosi and McConnell  to each designate four members of their caucuses to participate in negotiations on a legislative framework for deficit reduction. The discussions would be led by Biden and would begin early next month.

As part of their pre-buttal to Obama's speech, the Republican National Committee released a video of the president underperforming at various sports from basketball to bowling to golf, while calling for him to engage in an "adult conversation."

Other responses to Obama's proposals were more serious, with Boehner releasing a statement after the speech in support of Ryan's proposals and sounding a familiar GOP refrain against tax increases.

“To reduce the economic uncertainty hanging over American job creators we must demonstrate that we’re willing to take action.” Boehner’s release said in part.” And any plan that starts with job-destroying tax hikes is a non-starter. We need to grow our economy – not our government – by creating a better environment for private sector job growth. That’s why Republicans are fighting for meaningful spending cuts and fighting against any tax increases on American small businesses.”

From NBC's Mark Murray and Domenico Montanaro
President Obama's address today was part a recent history of America's growing deficits, part a defense of entitlement programs like Medicare and Medicaid, and part an explanation of his vision how to reduce trillions of dollars over the next several years.

But more than anything else, the address at George Washington University was the president's first 2012 campaign speech a week after he formally filed for re-election. And it was an effort to define the Republican Party -- arguments we’re sure to hear over the next year and a half.

Obama took aim at the GOP budget proposal by House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan (R-WI), which would phase out Medicare. The House of Representatives will vote on the measure later this week.

"It’s a vision that says America can’t afford to keep the promise we’ve made to care for our seniors," Obama said. "It says that 10 years from now, if you’re a 65-year-old who’s eligible for Medicare, you should have to pay nearly $6,400 more than you would today. It says instead of guaranteed health care, you will get a voucher. And if that voucher isn’t worth enough to buy insurance, tough luck -- you’re on your own."

"Put simply," he added, it ends Medicare as we know it."

He contrasted that Medicare proposal with the GOP support of permanent tax cuts, even for those making $250,000 or more a year. "This is a vision that says even though America can’t afford to invest in education or clean energy; even though we can’t afford to care for seniors and poor children, we can somehow afford more than $1 trillion in new tax breaks for the wealthy."

The president also defended safety-net programs like Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security. "We are a better country because of these commitments,” he said. “I’ll go further -- we would not be a great country without those commitments."

But Obama warned that if these entitlement programs aren't reformed, it will be more difficult to for future generations to afford these programs. "To those in my own party, I say that if we truly believe in a progressive vision of our society, we have the obligation to prove that we can afford our commitments." 

As far as the president's own proposal to reduce the deficit, he called for a "balanced" approach -- finding additional savings in domestic programs, eliminating "wasteful" defense spending, using the health-care law to slow the growth of Medicare, refusing to renew the tax cuts for those making more than $250,000 per year, and reforming the tax code.

"This is my approach to reduce the deficit by $4 trillion over the next 12 years," Obama said. "It’s an approach that achieves about $2 trillion in spending cuts across the budget... And it achieves these goals while protecting the middle class, our commitment to seniors, and our investments in the future."

Yet how the math adds up to achieve those reductions remains an open question. The White House hasn’t posted a plan, and the president called for creating another group, led by Vice President Biden and congressional leaders, to come up with legislation.

Acknowledging that many Americans and politicians might not agree with his approach, the president called to bring Democrats and Republicans together -- once again trying to rise above the fray (despite his tough critique of the GOP's budget plan). "This morning, I met with Democratic and Republican leaders in Congress to discuss the approach I laid out today,” he said. “And in early May, the vice president will begin regular meetings with leaders in both parties with the aim of reaching a final agreement on a plan to reduce the deficit by the end of June."

He ended his speech by calling for common ground -- even after his harsh words for the Ryan plan. "Though I’m sure the criticism of what I’ve said here today will be fierce in some quarters, and my critique of the House Republican approach has been strong,” the president said. “Americans deserve and will demand that we all bridge our differences, and find common ground."      

As if on cue, Republicans quickly criticized Obama’s speech. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who formed his presidential exploratory committee earlier this week, said in a statement: "Instead of supporting spending cuts that lead to real deficit reduction and true reform of Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security, the president dug deep into his liberal playbook for ‘solutions’ highlighted by higher taxes."

Romney added, "With over 20 million people who are unemployed or who have stopped looking for work, the last thing we should be doing is raising taxes on job-creators, entrepreneurs, and small business owners across America.”

And House Speaker John Boehner said, “To reduce the economic uncertainty hanging over American job creators we must demonstrate that we’re willing to take action. And any plan that starts with job-destroying tax hikes is a non-starter. We need to grow our economy -- not our government -- by creating a better environment for private sector job growth.

Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus charged today that President Obama is long on speeches and short on follow through.

“We'll probably be talking in another in six months before another 'great speech' from the president who is in love with the sound of his own voice,” Priebus said this afternoon on MSNBC’s Andrea Mitchell Reports.

Congress is expected to vote tomorrow on a continuing resolution that would keep the government funded through September. But when that expires, observers are expecting another fight over the 2012 budget.

“He's in love with giving speeches,” Priebus continued, “but he's not really in love with following through with his promises and his rhetoric.”

Priebus noted that Obama had a chance to rein in entitlement spending, when he rolled out his 2012 budget, but didn’t do so. “His time of embracing reducing debt came in his budget, which he didn't do anything about,” he said.

The RNC chief rejected the idea of any potential tax increases – even for the wealthy, equating that to “tax hikes for people with small businesses.” That was an argument Republicans made during the 2010 debate over the expiring Bush tax cuts.

He then repeated a GOP talking point that is being hammered all over the airwaves: “We don’t have a revenue problem in this country,” Priebus said. “We have enough money coming in. The problem in this country, and the president has said himself over and over, is that we are addicted to spending in Washington and that's where the focus needs to be.”

Priebus isn’t the first to make the political charge Obama is long on speeches, but short on substance. Hillary Clinton took to using the “Speeches not Solutions” slogan in attacking candidate Obama during the bitter 2007-2008 Democratic primary. John McCain charged that Obama used “empty words.”

The White House and Democratic National Committee would argue that the president won the primary, the general election and got health care passed with a similar approach.

From NBC's Shawna Thomas
Returning from a White House briefing in advance of the president’s remarks on the deficit this afternoon, Republican House and Senate leaders remained unreceptive to President Barack Obama’s strategy for taking on the nation’s growing debt.

"The President gave us a general outline,” said House Speaker John Boehner. “But the one area that we know we're not going to get very far on is the idea that we're going to raise taxes on the very people we expect to invest in our economies and to help create jobs.”

The leaders called the discussion "frank" and "constructive," but their sharp critiques indicated some loose interpretations of those more complimentary adjectives.

While conceding that "not meeting our debt obligations is a very bad idea," Boehner agreed with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell that both chambers would oppose raising the federal debt limit without attaching robust legislation to reduce the deficit.

The leaders’ linkage of the two issues almost assures that the Democrat's desire to have a "clean” vote on the debt ceiling may be a pipe dream.  

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner has said that he expects the country to reach its debt limit by May 16th, but that default could be held off until July 8th. 

Asked if the president seemed open to tying other obligations to the debt ceiling vote, the speaker responded with one word, "Yes." 

"We've got to take meaningful steps towards solving our long term debt problem if in fact we're going to find the votes to increase the debt ceiling,” he added.  

From NBC’s Doug Adams
Calling Social Security "broken," three Republican senators unveiled a plan Wednesday to overhaul the 75-year old entitlement program by raising the retirement age and reducing benefits for some wealthier Americans.

Two freshmen -- Tea Party Republicans Mike Lee of Utah and Rand Paul of Kentucky -- joined Sen. Lindsay Graham of South Carolina, who has been working on this issue for more than five years.

A key part of their proposal would be to gradually raise the mandatory retirement age to 70 years old by 2032. 

“If you talk to young people in America - they've already accepted this,” Paul said. “I tell people ‘the knowledge has already been discounted. Young people know the age will have to go up gradually.’”

The senators also proposed "means testing" for Social Security benefits, meaning the reduction of benefits for wealthier Americans.

Under their plan, seniors making over $43,000 a year would have their monthly benefits reduced by $300 to $400 by 2032.

This year is the first year in which Social Security pays out more than it takes in, because people are living longer, and the huge wave of Baby Boomers is starting to hit retirement age. 

Neither Rep. Paul Ryan’s FY2012 budget nor the deficit plans outlined by President Barack Obama to date address specifics for addressing Social Security’s long-term solvency.

Graham noted the political hazards of discussing changes to benefits for America’s retirees, saying that Paul and Lee are the only co-signatories on his proposal.

"These are the only 2 guys I could find,” he said.

Mnsbc.com's Carrie Dann contributed.

When President Barack Obama takes the stage on Wednesday to discuss his plan for deficit reduction, the author of a rival GOP budget plan is likely to be on most observers' minds as well.

House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan's FY2012 budget, which would eliminate $6 trillion in federal spending over the next decade, would fundamentally transform Medicare and make major changes to Medicaid spending.

Democrats have called those changes "dangerous," and, while Ryan has won praise from many in his party for showing leadership on the budget issue, not all GOP leaders have categorically embraced its specifics.

Here's a quick summary of where possible 2012 Republican contenders stand on the Paul Ryan plan:

ROMNEY 
Praising Ryan for his “bold thinking,” the former Massachusetts governor was supportive but vague in a statement issued after the Ryan plan was released.

“I applaud Rep. Paul Ryan for recognizing the looming financial crisis that faces our nation and for the creative and bold thinking that he brings to the debate,” he said. “He is setting the right tone for finally getting spending and entitlements under control. Anyone who has read my book knows that we are on the same page.”

PAWLENTY
Without naming specifics of the Ryan budget, the former Minnesota governor drew a contrast between Ryan’s leadership and the president’s.  

“Thanks to Paul Ryan in Congress, the American people finally have someone offering real leadership in Washington. President Obama has failed to lead and make tough choices his entire time in the White House. While the budget is going to be debated for several months to come, the more immediate issue we face is President Obama’s plans to raise the debt ceiling next month,” he said. “That's a really bad idea.”

“With over $14 trillion debt already, we should not allow Washington’s big spenders to put us further in the hole,” he added. “We must get our fiscal house in order with real spending cuts and with real structural reforms that stop the spending spree before it bankrupts our country.”

DANIELS
Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels lauded the plan, and also preemptively challenged its dissenters.

“The House budget resolution is the first serious proposal produced by either party to deal with the overriding issue of our time,” he said in a statement. “The national debt we are amassing threatens the livelihood and the liberty of every single American, and in particular the life prospects of our young people. Anyone criticizing this plan without offering a specific and equally bold program of his own has failed in the public duty to be honest and clear with Americans about the gravest danger we are facing together.”

BACHMANN
Minnesota conservative Rep. Michele Bachmann told the Associated Press that she supports the notion of a subsidy system for people under age 55, but she wouldn’t say if she backs the Ryan Medicare proposal specifically.

"It's an aspirational document. It's not a piece of legislation," she said.

SANTORUM
The former Pennsylvania senator was one of the most direct of the potential 2012 candidate in embracing the specifics of Ryan’s plan.

“I commend Chairman Ryan’s long-term budget proposal that tackles entitlement programs, particularly his proposed reforms of the Medicaid program,” Santorum said in a written statement. He also said the Republican plan’s “approach to reforming Medicare is right on target to streamline the program, reduce waste and allow future Medicare beneficiaries to have more of a say in the needs of their benefits with a market driven approach.”

GINGRICH
The onetime House speaker pointed to the “general shape” of the Ryan-proposed reforms. "Paul Ryan is going to define modern conservatism at a serious level. You can quibble over details but the general shape of what he's doing will define 2012 for Republicans," he said on a radio show.

In an interview with the New York Times, however, Gingrich warned that proposing to overhaul entitlement programs could be very tricky politics.

“I think it is a dangerous political exercise,” Mr. Gingrich said. “This is not something that Republicans can afford to handle lightly.”

HUCKABEE
Taking a realist’s approach to the plan’s political steam, the former Arkansas governor pointed out that “it’s doubtful” the Ryan budget will be passed in its current form. He called the plan “a start.”

His statement: "I have been reviewing the document since its release – and so far, several of Congressman Ryan's ideas, are ideas that I have been advocating for many months. I am especially pleased that the proposal provides for streamlining many government agencies and repealing Obamacare."

"It’s doubtful the House’s proposal will be passed in its current form, and it’s unlikely that this one proposal will be the ultimate solution to all of our economic problems.  But Congressman Ryan's proposal is certainly a start – one that I support as a small step to restoring fiscal sanity and reducing the size of government."

PALIN
Also calling the plan a “start” was former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, who tweeted: “There is hope! Serious and necessary leadership rolls out serious and necessary reform proposal. Good start."

BARBOUR
In a tweet, the Mississippi governor said that “Rep. Ryan's budget recognizes the problem with government: too much spending without fiscal responsibility.”  He also signed on to a letter with other Republican governors saying that the plan “halts the out of control spending spree of recent years, and imposes a back to basics, fiscal discipline that voters clearly asked for in last November's mid-term elections.”

TRUMP
Emphasizing that he “cherish[es] our seniors,” The Donald said in an interview that Republicans are on a risky “ledge” by backing a plan that could be perceived as hurting older Americans. “I’d have to study the plan,” Trump said in an interview on CNN. “I will tell you, I think it's very dangerous for the Republicans to go on this ledge, because I, for one, would have to be very, very careful.”

“I have a lot of respect for Paul Ryan, but what is happening is the Republicans are going way, way, way far out on the ledge,” he said.

Obama steps into the deficit/debt/entitlement fray with his speech at 1:35 pm ET… Why is he doing it? The smart money: to use Ryan’s budget plan as a foil, as well as to placate arm-chair pundits and indies… An important reality check: The talk about cutting spending and reducing the deficit is primarily coming from the right… The lack of political will in reforming entitlements… How did we get from a budget surplus to deficits as far as the eye can see?... Obama to preview speech to congressional leaders at 10:40 am… Boehner’s still trying to sell the spending-cut deal… On T-Paw’s “I’m running for president”… On Romney’s “Why didn’t they call me?”… And Santorum to announce “next steps” tonight on FOX.

From NBC's Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** Stepping into the fray: Outside of campaigns for high office, nothing in American politics brings more passion, argument, and risk than tackling entitlements and taxes. "Hands off my Social Security!" one side will say. "Don't even think about raising my taxes!" the other will reply. And if you talk about cutting military spending, watch out. Stepping into this fray, in fact, is the equivalent of walking into a biker bar and punching someone in the face, no matter how much that person deserved it. It's nothing but trouble. Yet just two months after President Obama -- who's up for re-election next year -- declined to address entitlements in his FY 2012 budget, he's stepping into this fray with a speech at George Washington University at 1:35 pm ET.

*** Using Ryan’s plan as a foil and placating arm-chair pundits and indies: If it's nothing but trouble, then why is he doing it? Is it to blast Paul Ryan and Republicans who want to phase out Medicare (as many Democrats seem to want)? Is it to appeal to independents as a sensible reformer, even if nothing gets done (which his campaign strategists would like)? Or is it to truly lay out an actual plan that could pass and become law (which Erskine Bowles, Alan Simpson, and Andrew Sullivan are crossing their fingers for)? From our reporting and hunches, it’s more of the first two. Expect the president to use Ryan’s budget as a foil. Heading into next year’s election, if the two plans are Ryan’s and Obama’s, that’s a fight the White House thinks it can win. (Democratic operatives are probably licking their chops at the opportunity to go after the “Ryan-Romney plan” or “Ryan-Pawlenty plan” in states like Florida, Ohio and Iowa.) Moreover, Obama seems to be delivering this speech to placate arm-chair pundits and independents, who want to at least hear the president’s plans for tackling the debt.

*** An important reality check: Of course, if Obama doesn’t offer a specific plan today, the White House is opening itself up to criticism from the chattering class. But it’s criticism it would probably take. Why? Talk about cutting the deficit and government spending is coming exclusively from the right. In our February NBC/WSJ poll, Democrats and independents overwhelmingly said job creation and economic growth should be the government’s top priority, versus Republicans and Tea Party supporters who said it should be the deficit and government spending. In addition, when Americans say they want to reduce the deficit, they also don’t want to see their benefits go away. In that February survey, 67% said it was unacceptable to cut Medicaid to balance the budget, 76% said it was unacceptable to cut Medicare, and 77% said it was unacceptable to cut Social Security. And in our most recent NBC/WSJ survey last week, while 61% said they favor a balanced-budget amendment, 69% said they would OPPOSE one if it requires a significant cut to Medicaid, Medicare, and veterans benefits.

*** A lack of public support and political will: When it comes to deficit/debt/entitlement reform, there have always been plenty of plans. Bowles-Simpson. Ryan. Schakowsky. The so-called Gang of Six. What always seems to be lacking, though, is political will. Yesterday, House Speaker John Boehner released a saying that any kind of tax increase is a “non-starter,” despite the fact that Americans are paying a lower level in taxes than at any point since 1950. “We don’t have deficits because Americans are taxed too little, we have deficits because Washington spends too much,” Boehner said. On the other hand, liberals reject any cuts to Medicare, Medicaid, or Social Security, even though entitlements like Medicare are long-term drivers of U.S. deficits. "President Obama: If you cut Medicare and Medicaid benefits … don't ask for a penny of my money or an hour of my time in 2012,” the Progressive Change Campaign Committee said in a pledge it’s circulating to its members. So when you add it all up -- the lack of political will, a lack of public demand -- you see why this is usually more talk than action.

*** How did we get here? So how did we get from a budget surplus at the beginning of George W. Bush’s presidency to deficits and debt as far as the eye can see? Here’s a quick timeline: the Bush tax cuts (2001), 9/11 and the Afghanistan war (2001), the Iraq war (2003), more tax cuts, the unpaid-for Medicare prescription-drug benefit (2003), the financial collapse and economic downturn (2008), the Obama stimulus (2009), and the two-year extension of the Bush tax cuts (2010). Then you add the aging Baby Boomers to the whole mix. Back in 2009, the New York Times calculated that 37% of the deficits were due the economic downturn, 33% were due to Bush’s policies, 20% were due to Obama’s extensions of Bush’s policies, and another 10% were due to Obama’s policies like the stimulus.

*** Obama to preview speech to congressional leaders: Before he delivers his speech today, President Obama will preview it at 10:40 am ET before a bipartisan group of congressional leaders. Expected to attend: Speaker John Boehner, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, and Sens. Dick Durbin and Jon Kyl.

*** Boehner still trying to sell the deal: Turning from entitlements to last week’s spending-cut deal, it certainly looks like Boehner is trying to sell Republicans and conservatives on the deal in advance of Thursday’s vote. A press release Boehner’s folks issued yesterday was entitled: “President Who Began 2011 Saying “No Cuts” Now Poised to Sign Largest Spending Cut Since WWII.” As it turns out, conservatives aren’t happy with the deal, given that many of the spending cuts don’t directly come from this year’s discretionary spending. The AP: “The historic $38 billion in budget cuts resulting from at-times hostile bargaining between Congress and the Obama White House were accomplished in large part by pruning money left over from previous years, using accounting sleight of hand and going after programs President Barack Obama had targeted anyway.” In retrospect, it appears the White House got as good of a deal as it could get.  

*** “I’m running for president”: You just knew this was coming. Lots of people got excited last night after Tim Pawlenty told CNN that “I’m running for president” (even though we already know T-Paw is running and even though he later added that “we'll have a final or full announcement in the coming weeks”). Here’s an important point to remember: There really isn’t such a thing as an exploratory committee. You are either testing the waters (as Newt Gingrich is doing now) or you’ve filed paperwork with the FEC to begin raising money for a full-fledged presidential campaign (as Obama, Pawlenty and Romney have done). Yet there’s a reason why candidates say they’re setting up an exploratory committee, tell an interviewer they’re “running” but add they will have an announcement later, and then formally announce (“Today, I am officially announcing my bid for president”) in Iowa or their hometown. They want several bites at the apple. Legally, Pawlenty, Romney and Obama (as well as Herman Cain and Buddy Roemer) are all ACTIVE presidential candidates.

*** “Why didn’t you call me?” Romney, meanwhile, appeared on CNBC's "The Kudlow Report" yesterday, and gave this response on the 5th anniversary of Massachusetts' health-care reform becoming law: I'm very happy that the Democrats are celebrating the fact that we put in a health-care proposal in Massachusetts as an experiment," he said, per NBC's Lauren Selsky. "And I have one question for them -- why didn't anyone of them or the president ever call me and say what worked what didn't?" It’s the second time he’s used this line. But here’s a weakness in that defense: What if Romney’s health-care advisers also advised the White House? Paging MIT’s Jonathan Gruber…

*** More 2012: Rick Santorum will appear on FOX at 10:00 pm ET tonight, and a spokeswoman tells First Read that he will “announce the next steps he is taking in weighing a run for president in 2012”… Newt Gingrich hits a fundraiser in Atlanta… And Haley Barbour and Buddy Roemer are in New Hampshire.

Countdown to NY-26 special election: 41 days
Countdown to Iowa GOP straw poll: 121 days
Countdown to Election Day 2011: 209 days
Countdown to the Iowa caucuses: 299 days
* Note: When the IA caucuses take place depends on whether other states move up

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AP

President Obama poses for photographers at the White House after he spoke regarding the budget and averted government shutdown last Friday. The president will speak today at The George Washington University about the nation's spending habits.

“President Obama, jumping into a debt-reduction debate that will help define the rest of his term, will outline his ideas today for curbing the costs of Medicare and Medicaid and taking other steps to turn around the nation’s spending habits,” the AP’s Feller writes. “Ahead of his effort, House Republicans warned they would not consider any plan that includes tax increases.”

The Washington Post’s preview: “Lawmakers in both parties are urging President Obama to offer a detailed plan for curbing the national debt in the speech he is to deliver Wednesday, warning that they will not authorize fresh borrowing unless he agrees to mandatory restraints on future spending.”

The New York Times’ Leonhardt proposes this suggestion for tackling the nation’s deficit/debt: Let the Bush tax cuts expire for all Americans.

The Hill writes of the left’s “anxiety” over President Obama’s “shift to the political center.” The Washington Post also notes that liberals are disappointed with the president after cutting last week’s deal with Republicans.

But the latest NBC/WSJ polling doesn’t bare out that it’s any wider than that. Obama’s approval ratings among Democrats and liberals have been solid and steady. It’s actually up since December with those groups. The April NBC/WSJ poll showed Democrats approve of the president’s job 83%-13%; in February, it was 82%-13%; in January, it was 86%-9%; and in December, it was 76%-17%. Among liberals, it was 79%-17% in April; in February, it was 81%-15%; in January, it was 82%-12%; and in December, it was 71%-21%.

President Obama’s half-sister was on CNN telling birthers to essentially get over it, that he was born in Hawaii.

And NBC’s Michael Isikoff interviewed the former director of Hawaii’s Department of Health, who said of people asking questions about Obama’s birth: "It’s kind of ludicrous at this point." Of the birthers, Dr. Chiyome Fukino said, “They’re going to question the ink on which it was written or say it was fabricated. The whole thing is silly." And, Fukino who has seen the “long form” birth certificate, added, "It is real, and no amount of saying it is not, is going to change that… What he got, everybody got. He put out exactly what everybody gets when they ask for a birth certificate."

“Despite scattered opposition from both ends of the political spectrum, House Republicans and the White House both predicted approval yesterday for the hard-bargained $38 billion package of spending cuts that narrowly avoided a government shutdown,” AP writes.

“Mark Meckler, co-founder of Tea Party Patriots, says dissatisfaction with the budget deal has local activists already seeking out primary challengers to sitting House GOP members who are supporting the deal,” The Hill writes. "I'm literally getting emails by the hour from people talking about primary challenges," Meckler said.

Roll Call writes: “The prospects for a grand bipartisan debt deal may depend in large part on the personal marketing skills of Sen. Saxby Chambliss.” (By the way, Tea Party Patriots is not exactly a fan of Chambliss because of his TARP vote.)

The Boston Globe’s Johnson writes of John Kerry and John McCain soothing their rift that developed during the 2008 campaign.

“The Republican National Committee announced Tuesday that it raised slightly more than $7 million in March, finishing the month with $3.2 million in cash on hand and $19.8 million in debt from the 2010 election cycle,” Roll Call reports, adding, “The fundraising news came at the same time as the announcement that the RNC has hired Angela Meyers to serve as its new finance director.”

GOP 12’s Christian Heinze, writing in The Hill, looks at the double-edged sword of attempts at humor by candidates.

BACHMANN: Michele Bachmann will visit New Hampshire on April 18, the New Hampshire Union-Leader’s DiStaso reports. She’ll meet with about two dozen to 30 state Tea Party leaders.

BARBOUR: Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour begins his two-day visit to New Hampshire today, which includes a reception at a private residence in the town of Bow; a breakfast at a French restaurant in Manchester, a meet-and-greet at Riley’s Gun Shop in Hooksett; and a reception with the Greater Manchester Federation of Republican Women, the Memphis Commercial Appeal writes.

Barbour deflected several questions about Mitt Romney’s health care plan when he visited the Congressional Health Care Caucus yesterday, saying only that “the similarities are obvious,” the New York Times writes, adding that Barbour said he’ll be “in or out” for the presidency by the end of April.

DANIELS: In an editorial board with the Indianapolis Star, Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels was asked to respond to Time columnist Joel Klein plea for Daniels to enter the race and his characterization of the rest of the GOP field as a “freak show.” “‘It's always good to be held to a low standard,’ [Daniels] said and envisioned his campaign being praised with the words: ‘At least he's not a freak.’” On whether Daniels accepts that President Obama was born in Hawaii, he said: “I guess I do, but I don't care… I don't think it's material. I accept that he was."

GINGRICH: Newt Gingrich is “highly unlikely” to meet the criteria for the Fox News Channel/South Carolina GOP’s May 5 debate, The Hill reports, as participants must register a presidential exploratory committee or have announced a formal campaign for president by April 29^. “Specifically, the April 29 requirement does not fit within our time line,” Gingrich’s spokesman explained.

Gingrich showed his documentary at Texas A&M University yesterday, student newspaper The Battalion writes.

HUCKABEE: Mike Huckabee tweeted a birthday greeting yesterday to Iowa conservative Bob Vander Plaats, who turns 48 today, the Des Moines Register writes. Vander Plaats invited Huckabee to speak in his group The Family Leader’s presidential lecture series but Huckabee hasn’t accepted so far.

“Mike Huckabee and Donald Trump had a one-on-one meeting last week, a sit-down that left the former Arkansas governor with the impression that the developer is indeed going to run for president,” Politico reports. “The get-together came as Huckabee, multiple sources said, has been quietly meeting with donors in New York for the past month as he himself weighs a run.”

PAWLENTY: Pawlenty said on CNN yesterday that he is “running for president,” a statement his campaign quickly sought to downplay, as Pawlenty has not officially announced a bid, AFP notes.

Pawlenty’s exploratory committee announced its political director of its exploratory committee, Jon Seaton, who ran the Iowa caucus operation for John McCain’s 2008 bid and was the regional campaign manager for Ohio and Pennsylvania during the general election. 

The New Hampshire Union-Leader’s DiStaso reports that Tim Pawlenty will participate in the first New Hampshire Republican presidential debate on June 7.

ROMNEY: Questioning a candidate’s citizenship is familiar territory for the Romney family, as lawyers for Mitt Romney’s father, then-Michigan Gov. George Romney, investigated the question in the 1960s when the elder Romney was running for president, Forbes writes. George Romney was born in a Mormon colony in Chihuahua, Mexico.

SANTORUM: Rick Santorum will discuss the next step he will be taking regarding a potential presidential bid tonight on Fox News, New Hampshire Union-Leader’s DiStaso writes. “It's anticipated that Santorum, who announced on Monday that he will participate in a presidential debate in New Hampshire on June 7, will move closer to a candidacy, perhaps with the formation of an exploratory committee.”

TRUMP: “Rep. Anthony Weiner (D-N.Y.) suggested that Trump, the real estate mogul and reality TV star, should be fired for running for president and the comments he's made while readying a possible campaign,” The Hill reports. Weiner tweeted: “There is no law against stupid, but when is Comcast/NBC/Kabletown gonna fire Trump? #MaybeWeDoNeedSuchALaw.”

IOWA: The Atlantic profiles state conservative kingmaker Bob Vander Plaats.

MISSOURI: “Sen. Claire McCaskill raised more than $1 million for her 2012 re-election campaign during the first quarter, the Associated Press reported Tuesday. The first-term Missouri Democrat dwarfed the fundraising effort of one potential Republican opponent, Ed Martin, who announced earlier in the day that he had raised more than $162,000 in the same period,” per Roll Call.

NEW JERSEY: “Gov. Chris Christie said Tuesday he’s inclined to move New Jersey’s 2012 presidential primary to June to save money and avoid penalties such as losing delegates,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

SOUTH CAROLINA: Conservatives in South Carolina – as elsewhere, “have been radicalized,” Politico writes. “What began as disappointment in the fiscal sins they believe were committed by the Bush White House has now turned into rage and fear over the policies pursued by President Obama, who they see as nothing short of a wild-eyed liberal intent on turning America into France,” and there was more talk at two recent county conventions of Michele Bachmann, Donald Trump and even freshman congressman Allen West than there was of the more establishment potential candidates. 

VIRGINIA: “Former Sen. George Allen (R-Va.) raised $1.5 million for his 2012 Senate race during the first quarter of the year,” The Hill reports.

From NBC’s Lauren Selsky
Former Florida Governor and failed United States Senate candidate Charlie Crist released a video yesterday apologizing for his use of the 1985 Talking Heads song "Road to Nowhere" in a 2010 campaign YouTube ad.

The apology is part of a settlement with Talking Heads frontman David Byrne, who sued Crist for $1 million after learning Crist had used his song without permission.

In the apology video, Crist says to camera, "The use of David Byrne's song, and his voice in my campaign advertisement without his permission was wrong and should not have occurred." Crist also acknowledges "Mr. Byrne has never permitted his songs to be used for advertisement of any kind."

As Time's Swampland blog points out, Byrne is just one of many rockstars who've asked Republican politicians to stop using their music during campaigns, accusing them of distorting their song's messages.

Here’s all of what Crist says in the video:

"Hi I'm Charlie Crist. During 2012 I ran for a seat in the United State Senate. During that campaign, a video advertisement utilized a song made famous by David Byrne and the Talking Heads called Road to Nowhere. The advertisement was posted on my campaign website, on YouTube, and sent out via email. Regrettably, the campaign did not ask permission to obtain a license from Mr. Byrne to use Road to Nowhere in the advertisement. In fact, Mr. Byrne has never permitted his songs to be used for advertisement of any kind - a position I respect deeply. The use of David Byrne's song, and his voice in my campaign advertisement without his permission was wrong and should not have occurred. I do not support, nor do I condone any actions taken by anyone involved in a senate campaign that were inconsistent with David Byrne's rights or with any other artist's rights or the various legal protections afforded to intellectual property I sincerely apologize to David Byrne for using his famous song and his unique voice in my campaign advertisement without his permission. I pledge that should there be any future election campaigns for me, I will respect and uphold the rights of artists and obtain permission or a license for the use of any copyrighted work. Thank you."

From NBC's Athena Jones
The Obamas and the Bidens highlighted the sacrifices military families make daily to serve a nation that has been at war for nearly a decade as they launched a program aimed at urging communities to do more to support them.

The president, the vice president, the first lady and the second lady each spoke at the "Joining Forces" event in the East Room on Tuesday about their effort to get companies, non-profits, faith-based institutions to provide more employment, job training and educational opportunities for veterans and military spouses, help employers create military family-friendly workplaces and schools to ease transferability for military-connected students.

Military service members represent just 1 percent of the population, but shoulder the responsibility of protecting our entire country, White House officials often point out. Freedom is not free, President Obama said during his brief remarks before an audience made up of members of the administration, lawmakers, military families and representatives from more than two dozen businesses and military organizations.

"For 234 years our freedom has been paid by the service and sacrifice of those who have stepped forward, raised their hand and said 'Send me'," he said. "As a nation it is our solemn duty and our moral obligation to serve these patriots as well as they serve us."

Biden -- whose son Beau is a captain in the Delaware Army National Guard and did a year-long tour of duty in Iraq -- focused on the lengthy deployments of many servicemembers in recent years.

"This generation of warriors may be among the most devoted because of the long, long, long periods of service that they have had to endure," the vice president said. "I don't think there's ever been a time in history when a generation of military families has had to endure for as long and as much as this generation of American families of servicemen."

Military families have long been a central issue for the first lady, in addition to her efforts to improve childhood health and nutrition and both Michelle Obama and Dr. Jill Biden have spent a great deal of time visiting with them. "You are all heroes," Dr. Jill Biden said of servicemembers and their families. The first lady, who spoke last, echoed that sentiment, calling military families America's "heroes on the home front" and saying that every community is a military community.

"This campaign is about all of us -- all of us joining together as Americans to give back to the extraordinary military families who serve and sacrifice so much every day," the first lady said. "'Joining Forces' is a challenge to every segment of American society to take action."

The initiative announced today is focused mainly on raising public awareness about the need to better support soldiers, sailors, airmen, marines, coastguardsmen, National Guard and reserve, military spouses, veterans and survivors of fallen troops. It does not include any financial commitments from the government and officials could not say how many military families they hope to reach through the program.

According to a fact sheet provided by the White House, companies like Walmart, Siemens and Cisco have promised hiring and training programs for veterans and family members or transportable job options for military spouses or both. Organizations like the National Math and Science Initiative, the National PTA, the Military Child Education Coalition, Intel, Best Buy's Geek Squad and McGraw Hill have committed to programs  to support academic achievement of military children and improve education and training opportunities and health care organizations like WebMD, the American Heart Association, the YMCA and the U.S. Tennis Association have said they will expand access to wellness programs and resources for military families.

Mrs. Obama and Dr. Biden will embark on a multi-state tour tomorrow to publicize the initiative. They plan to visit Camp Lejeune in North Carolina, Brooke Army Medical Center in San Antonio, TX, and participate in event with military families in Denver and Colorado Springs, CO and in Columbus, OH.

Support for the military is considered a safe, non-controversial political cause seen as a win-win, but this White House effort includes a controversial figure: Retired Gen. Stanley McChrystal, who was removed as head of the US war effort in Afghanistan after he criticized the administration in a Rolling Stone article last year, will head up the advisory board for this initiative. Patricia Shinseki, the wife of Veterans Affairs Secretary Eric Shinseki will also be on the board, but other members of the have not yet been named.

Today's event also drew criticism from a group representing gay military families. Servicemembers United, which says it is the nation's largest organization of gay and lesbian troops and veterans, put out a release saying the White House had refused to include one of their representatives at the "Joining Forces" launch "because of nothing but lingering political homophobia."

"The President has been crystal clear that the Administration is moving forward with the repeal of Don't Ask, Don't Tell quickly and efficiently," Kristina Schake, the first lady's communications director said in a statement in response to the group's release. "However, it still remains the law.  The White House, including the First Lady and Dr. Biden, look forward to working with the families of gay and lesbian service members after certification occurs and repeal goes into effect."

Politico’s Ben Smith makes some interesting points -- and has some punchy quotes -- about the risk Donald Trump faces in going the birther route, particularly to his business. And numbers in a recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll highlights that risk.

Smith writes: 

“Trump's shows [as host of NBC’s Celebrity Apprentice] boast a solid African-American viewership and black cast members some of whom he's likely alienating.”

In Smith’s post, Marc Morial, president of the National Urban League, (and others) connected the dots between birtherism and race. "There's a lot of people that I've talked to instinctively think that he's using the issue as a proxy for race," Morial said, adding, “It's like a modern day Salem witch trial -- because there's no merit to it.”

The February NBC/WSJ poll showed 26% had a favorable opinion of Trump, while 29% had a negative one. And the groups that had the most favorable opinion of Trump were Hispanics (33%-23%) and African Americans (27%-22%).

That should be a warning sign to Trump that not all publicity is good publicity and that there is substantial risk in potentially alienating black viewers.

Others with a favorable opinion of Trump in the poll: Tea Party supporters (29%-25%), Republicans (31%-28%), Northeasterners (32%-25%), Midwesterners (30%-27%), those with less than a high school education (34/24).

He’s a net-negative with whites (26%-30%), white men (27%-31%), white women (25%-28%), suburban voters (24%-35%), GOP/Non-Tea (30%-31%), the South (28%-29%), the West (13%-34%).

Another national presidential horserace poll now shows a surge by Donald Trump, with the real estate mogul tied for first with former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee among Republicans surveyed.

According to the CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey, Trump and Huckabee are the first choice of 19 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, with former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin coming in at third with 12 percent.

But the one trait those three top-runners – making up exactly 50% of the first choice candidates of those polled - have in common? They all seem much less likely than other GOP competitors to actually mount a run for president.

While Trump could certainly deploy his news-cycle monopolizing publicity if he decided to run, the requirement that candidates publish a lengthy financial disclosure statement could preclude the business magnate from participating in the race.

Huckabee, who enjoyed a meteoric rise to national prominence during the 2008 election, would have to give up a lucrative television presence to run again in 2012. (Huckabee has reportedly been meeting with potential financial donors, although he has made clear that he will not make a decision on a run until this summer – far later than most of the more well-organized candidates in the race.)

And Palin, who has taken a much less high-profile role in recent months, appears to have made few formal moves towards a run so far. Additionally, her perch as a top conservative female candidate has been increasingly occupied by Tea Party favorite Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota. (Bachmann stood at five percent in the CNN survey.)

According to the CNN poll, regardless of whether they support her, 53 percent of Republicans say they would like to see Palin run while 47 percent would prefer she sit the 2012 contest out. The numbers are similar for Trump, whom 56 percent of GOP-affiliated respondents would like to see run, compared to 43 percent who would rather see the coiffed tycoon stay in the private sector.

More than seven in 10 Republicans would like to see Huckabee run.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who announced the formation of an exploratory committee yesterday, had the support of 11 percent of the poll’s GOP respondents, as did former House Spekaer Newt Gingrich.

Romney, the GOP front-runner, is finally in… And he gets in the day before the anniversary of his MA health-care law, which will be a defining issue for him in 2011-2012… Pay attention to Romney’s second-quarter haul… What else we learned from Romney’s announcement… Liberals are once again disappointed with Obama… But there’s a reason why GOP presidents play to their base, while Dem presidents don’t… At noon ET, the Obamas and the Bidens mark the launch of an initiative to honor U.S. service members and their families… Walker comes to DC on Thursday… And Campaign to Defeat Barack Obama launches TV ad in battleground states.

From NBC's Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** The GOP front-runner is finally in: One week after President Obama filed the paperwork for his re-election bid, Mitt Romney -- the front-runner for the GOP nomination -- yesterday officially entered the 2012 race. On Twitter and in a video announcement, Romney announced the formation of his presidential exploratory committee, which enables him to begin raising money for the presidential contest. He becomes the fourth Republican presidential candidate to form an exploratory committee, joining Tim Pawlenty, Herman Cain, and Buddy Roemer. What surprised political observers wasn’t that Romney announced, but rather that he did so just before today’s fifth anniversary of him signing Massachusetts’ health-care reform into law and gave oxygen to a Democratic Party stunt planned for days to "honor" this day for Romney.

*** A defining anniversary: Yet it may be fitting that Romney jumped into the presidential waters so close to that anniversary, because Massachusetts’ law will define his primary candidacy. He either figures out how to navigate and wins the nomination, or the issue kills his chances. It may be that simple. Like the Iraq war resolution vote was for Hillary Clinton, that health-care act -- due to its similarities to President Obama’s own law -- will not only define Romney’s candidacy, but will also give his opponents an opening to take him down. (Remember, Hillary still could have won the Dem nomination in ’08 despite the Iraq war vote depending on some tactical decisions that in hindsight were HUGE mistakes, most notably, failing to organize in the caucus states) So Romney’s timing yesterday was either brave (because he isn’t going to let the anniversary phase him) or a mistake (because it only feeds more discussion about his health-care law). Romney spokeswoman Andrea Saul explains the timing to First Read, “In our view, any day is a good day to talk about jobs and the economy.”

*** Watching Romney’s second-quarter haul: Now that Romney’s in just after the second fundraising quarter has begun, it will be interesting to see how much money he’ll end up raising during that period; he's been quietly PREPARING to raise money for months to create a "shock and awe" type of fundraising report.  Will it be $20 to $25 million? Will it be $40 to $50 million? The answer will give us a good idea of how strong of a front-runner Romney will be. The reports about his fundraising team have been mixed; he's signed people who were NOT with him in 2008, and there are some 2008 fundraisers who are still holding back.  

*** What else we learned from Romney’s announcement: Finally, we learned -- or reconfirmed -- a few other things from Romney’s announcement yesterday. One, he's placing emphasis on New Hampshire (that's where he shot the announcement video) and to a lesser extent Nevada.  Two, he's continuing his low-key approach (announcing via Twitter and Facebook). Three, he's focusing on the economy (which was the main subject of his video). And four, the new Romney logo looks a lot like Aquafresh’s, and his “Believe in America” slogan is similar to one John Kerry used in ’04. Then again, Obama borrowed “Winning the Future” from Newt Gingrich. It’s a reminder that there are no original ideas; just repackaged oldies but goodies.

*** Base politics: It’s like clockwork. Just Days after Obama cut his budget deal with Republicans, liberals are disappointed at the president. Here was Paul Krugman yesterday, and the online NYT comments to Krugman’s piece were even tougher on the president. Of course, it’s a cliché that Republican presidents play to their base, while Democratic presidents often alienate it. But as our recent NBC/WSJ poll suggests, there’s a reason why this happens: Only 21% identify themselves as liberal (either very liberal or somewhat liberal), compared with 37% who say they are conservative (very conservative or somewhat conservative); 40% say they’re moderate. The dilemma for Democrats: To win national elections, they have to win a larger share of the moderate vote than Republicans do. And that’s why Democratic presidents -- whether they’re Bill Clinton or Barack Obama or the next one -- often disappoint their base. What’s surprising here is that we haven’t seen the liberal disappointment manifest itself more. At least so far… And part of the reason: The president has a problem with liberal ELITES, but not the liberal RANK-N-FILE. Just look at his numbers with base Democratic voters; they are essentially as strong as ever.

*** Obama’s day: At noon ET, President Obama, Vice President Biden, the first lady, and Dr. Jill Biden deliver remarks to mark the launch of the initiative by the first lady and Dr. Biden to support and honor America’s service members and their families.

*** Walker comes to DC: On Thursday, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) will come to DC to testify before GOP Rep. Darrell Issa’s House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, per NBC’s Luke Russert. The panel is entitled, "State and Municipal Debt: Tough Choices Ahead." Speaking of Wisconsin, the vote reversal that seems to have tipped the race to conservative state Supreme Court Justice David Prosser has raised some eyebrows. The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: “The Democrat on the Waukesha County Board of Canvassers who was widely quoted as endorsing the county clerk's official ballot count that flipped the state Supreme Court winner last week said Monday that she was never told about more than 14,000 missing votes from the city of Brookfield until shortly before a Thursday news conference.” By the way, the Democratic Governors Association has a Web video hitting some of the new GOP governors.

*** 2012 watch: Pawlenty has private meetings in Florida… Also, Pawlenty's newly minted campaign manager Nick Ayers makes his TV debut on MSNBC’s “Daily Rundown” at 9:00 am ET… Gingrich is in College Station, TX, where he shows one of his documentaries and does local interview… Giuliani’s in Naples, FL, for a lecture series… Cain has a rally in Missouri… And yesterday, the Campaign to Defeat Barack Obama, a sister group to the Tea Party Express, launched a 60-second TV ad aimed at the president to air in NV, MI, WI, OH, MI, CO, and PA (at a buy of $250,000). Message-wise, the ad's all over the place, but we point it out because it may officially be known as the first paid TV ad of the 2012 presidential campaign.

Countdown to NY-26 special election: 42 days
Countdown to Iowa GOP straw poll: 122 days
Countdown to Election Day 2011: 210 days
Countdown to the Iowa caucuses: 300 days
* Note: When the IA caucuses take place depends on whether other states move up

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“Democrats and Republicans wasted no time drawing stark battle lines for the coming fight over raising the debt limit as a top Republican dismissed out of hand the White House’s calls for a simple increase to the nation’s borrowing authority,” Roll Call reports. “‘We are not going to vote to raise the debt limit unless we see some guarantees’ on mandatory spending caps and entitlement reform, House Majority Leader Eric Cantor said Monday.”

“Wall Street is getting used to high drama in Congress, but the fight over raising the debt limit will test even that seasoned resolve,” The Hill writes. “If Wall Street saw the fight over legislation to fund the government as playing with matches, it sees the fight over the debt ceiling as playing with plastic explosives, said Steve Bell, a former staff director with the Senate Budget Committee.”

The Boston Globe looks at what’s already been cut from the budget and what wasn’t, including $5.3 billion in earmarks.

The New York Times adds, “Democrats spoke proudly of their success in staving off painful cuts to programs near and dear to them, ones that became the centerpiece of their fight against huge cuts sought by Republicans. But as some details of the plan to cut roughly $38 billion in federal spending came trickling out Monday, it was clear that many of those programs, while cut nowhere near as much as Republicans had hoped, were significantly nibbled at.”

More: The spending bill would maintain the maximum Pell grant award for low-income students at $5,550. But it would end a new Pell grant program for summer school students, saving hundreds of millions of dollars. President Obama successfully resisted Republican efforts to take all federal money from the Planned Parenthood Federation of America. But the spending bill cuts money for the program that finances many family-planning services provided by Planned Parenthood and other organizations, Title X of the Public Health Service Act. The appropriation would be reduced to $300 million, from $317 million, Congressional aides said.”

By the way, Roll Call notes that Republicans can’t pass the CR deal with just Republican votes, but GOP leadership isn’t going after Democrats because they believe enough of those votes will be there since the president and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid endorsed the deal.

“The eleventh-hour budget deal struck late last week poses a challenge for the promises that House Republicans made to increase transparency,” The Hill reports. “Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.) has scheduled a vote on the final spending bill for Wednesday, but as of Monday evening, the legislation hadn’t been released publicly.”

Rand Paul says he’ll vote against the budget deal.

Rush Limbaugh says Republicans caved.

“New York's congressional delegation trashed President Obama's budget compromise Monday, calling it ‘irresponsible,’ ‘dangerous’ and ‘immoral,’” the New York Daily News reports.

Stu Rothenberg, writing in Roll Call, notes that there will likely be lots more last-minute negotiations to come, calling it a byproduct “of the highly partisan environment that we find ourselves in.”

DC Mayor Vince Gray and city council members were arrested on Capitol Hill last night protesting the budget cuts.

In advance of Obama’s speech on entitlements tomorrow, the Washington Post’s Greg Sargent interviews former Clinton speechwriter Michael Waldman, who recounts that Clinton drew a line in the sand on Medicare. “While Clinton, a New Democrat, did push for welfare reform and call for a balanced budget to restore his fiscal credibility, the former president pivoted from there to a major, protracted public fight over Medicare — and an unabashed defense of a liberal role for government — that was crucial in restoring his public standing.”

“Few remember this part of the story, but Waldman notes that Clinton seized on the Medicare standoff to reaffirm his support for the social contract as embodied in Lyndon Johnson’s Medicare promise to America, frequently referring to proposals to cut Medicare as an affront to our “values.” Clinton even used Johnson’s pen to veto the GOP’s budget.”

Sargent concludes, “Waldman noted that Obama now has a chance to do the same. ‘This is an opportunity for him to spell out with clarity his vision of the role of government,’ Waldman said. ‘If he doesn’t, it will be an opportunity lost.’”

Is this what President Obama winds up endorsing? “Gang of Six negotiators are close to striking a deal on a deficit-reduction package, according to Senate sources,” The Hill reports. “White House officials and Democrats are pressing for the six negotiators to wrap up their talks by the Easter recess beginning on April 16.”

“The White House said yesterday that President Obama regrets his vote as a senator in 2006 against raising the debt limit — the same kind of increase he is now pressuring Congress to approve,” AP writes.

Per the New York Times, “Just four months into their new majority, House Republicans face a potentially defining Medicare vote this week that is sure to become a centerpiece of Democratic efforts to recapture the House in 2012 and spill into the presidential and Senate campaigns as well.”

“Republicans acknowledge that the vote is risky, and party strategists have warned House leaders about the dangers, aides said. But Republicans are calculating that the political ground has shifted, making the public, concerned about the mounting national debt, receptive to proposals to rein in costs by reshaping the program.”

Newt Gingrich and Michele Bachmann will attend the Minnesota Family Council’s annual fundraising dinner in Minneapolis on May 17, the Minnesota Independent reports. The event, called “Rediscovering Faith, Family and Freedom,” will feature Gingrich’s film “Rediscovering God in America.” 

BACHMANN: Speaking at an event sponsored by the Iowa conservative group The Family Leader, Rep. Michele Bachmann said she will vote against the federal budget compromise because it does not remove funding for President Obama’s health care law, the AP reports.

Reuters adds that Bachmann told the crowd that she “broke with my own leadership this weekend” over the budget package.

Bachmann was on FOX last night, per NBC's Lauren Selsky. Bachmann said she wouldn't vote to raise the debt ceiling. Asked about Donald Trump the "birther" issue he has raised, Bachmann said she's taken the president at his word -- and as far as she's concerned if she decides to throw her hat in the ring anyone can look at her birth certificate.

BARBOUR: “Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour will make his first New Hampshire appearance later this week, checking off the last of the must-stop early presidential primary states as he creeps closer to a White House run,” Roll Call notes. “The Southern Republican opens his Granite State tour Wednesday night at a private reception in Bow.”

The clients that Haley Barbour worked for in his former career as a lobbyist could hurt him on some very important issues for Republicans, the AP writes. In addition to his work for the Mexican government to lobby on immigration reform, Barbour’s firm also lobbied for a fuel alternative to ethanol (a big commodity in Iowa) and on behalf of three universities looking to secure federal spending.

PALIN: Sarah Palin wins just 5 percent in a Sachs/Mason Dixon poll of Florida voters gauging their presidential picks, The State Column notes. Mitt Romney leads the poll with 23 percent support.

PAUL: Rep. Ron Paul, also speaking at the Family Leader event, criticized the deal brokered by President Obama and congressional leaders, as well as Rep. Paul Ryan’s budget proposal, Reuters writes. “Paul said both the Obama and Ryan plans accept the idea the government will want to run the welfare system. ‘Ryan's, even though he makes an attempt at it, doesn't reject that notion. I do,’ Paul said.”

ROMNEY: Mitt Romney became the fourth Republican to form an exploratory committee as they mull bids for the White House in 2012. The Boston Globe says it’s something “he has been preparing for almost since he lost the 2008 Republican nomination. With little fanfare for the much-expected move, the former Massachusetts governor revealed the decision in an understated video posted on a website and on his Facebook page. The setting — an unannounced visit yesterday morning to meet with University of New Hampshire students — was telling: The Granite State is considered a must-win primary for Romney… Romney plans to open his campaign headquarters next month in Boston — in the same building his last campaign was based, in the North End. Aides declined to say whether he would participate in the first GOP presidential debate, scheduled for May 5.”

The Boston Globe’s Glen Johnson: “In announcing his presidential exploratory committee in a deliberately understated way, Romney declared his intentions — on his terms and in his own tone — with a variety of messages for an array of audiences.” More: “To President Obama, Romney asserted that the battle is joined… To the Democratic Party, Romney set his terms of engagement… To his primary rivals, and to the media, Romney rolled out his plan in a businesslike fashion reminiscent of the highly efficient and disciplined 2000 Bush campaign.” He also notes: “Two words absent from the speech: ‘health’ and ‘care.’ Also left unsaid was the $1.3 billion budget deficit his successor, Democrat Deval Patrick, claimed he inherited as governor.”

On the five-year anniversary of the signing of Massachusetts’ health-care plan, “Iowa Democrats are doing it to tweak Mitt Romney. So are New Hampshire Democrats and Massachusetts Democrats, who are even rolling out a ‘Thank you Mitt Romney’ sheet cake today,” the Boston Globe writes, going on to look at the details of the bill, that it expanded coverage but did little to rein in costs, and that it largely remains popular in the state.

The New Hampshire Democratic Party, in fact, is holding a press conference marking the anniversary at 11:15 am ET.

New Hampshire Republican Party Chairman Jack Kimball defended the Romney health care plan yesterday, saying on CNN that the plan “was an innovative experiment, he's a very smart man and what he did was he came up with this program geared for the state of Massachusetts, it was never meant to be some model for a national health care program. And Mitt Romney's made it very clear and as recently as a few weeks ago to me that he's in favor of complete repeal of 'Obamacare' and that each state should come up with their own plan.”

If Romney’s slogan, “Believe in America,” sounds familiar, that might be because it was also the title of John Kerry’s cross-country tour in August of 2004, Politico’s Ben Smith points out, adding, “if there's one parallel the wealthy Massachusetts politician whose foes are already waving online flip-flops doesn't particularly welcome, it's to Kerry.”

With his 2008 South Carolina team largely dismantled and support from conservative heavies like Sen. Jim DeMint and Gov. Nikki Haley far from assured, Mitt Romney could be the “heavy underdog” in the South Carolina presidential primary, Real Clear Politics writes. 

SANTORUM: Rick Santorum today became the first candidate, declared or prospective, to announce his participation in New Hampshire’s first scheduled primary debate on June 7, the New Hampshire Union-Leader’s DiStaso writes. DiStaso adds, though that “A source close to the debate said three other major likely candidates have told organizers that they will be there.”

TRUMP: In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, Donald Trump said he will “probably” run as an independent candidate for U.S. President in 2012 if he does not receive the Republican Party’s nomination. He also praised Sarah Palin for being “so nice and so gracious” on the Birther issue, saying she said he was doing “a great service” by -- falsely -- questioning President Obama’s citizenship.

Trump has taken a much harder line on benefits for gay couples and gay marriage than his previously moderate stances, Mother Jones points out, noting that he said in 2000 that he supported “a very strong domestic-partnership law” although he told the Des Moines Register last month that his position on legalizing gay marriage and giving “civil benefits” to same-sex couples was “no and no.”

In a pre-recorded interview on FOX last night, Trump rehashed the same issues he's been talking about for weeks, NBC's Lauren Selsky notes. When pressed for a date when he'll announce his decision about running for president, Trump said on or before June 1.