The high stakes in the 2012 election… One word that summarizes the House GOP’s first 100 days: bold… House Republicans head home to sell their votes for the Ryan budget plan… Obama hits the road this week to sell his own plan… It was a busy weekend on the early 2012 campaign trail… Bachmann and Haley attend Tea Party rally in South Carolina… And Dems have their candidate in TX SEN.

From NBC's Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Ali Weinberg
*** 2012’s high stakes: So much for the idea that the 2012 presidential election wouldn't live up to its predecessors. While 2012 won't feature the historic candidacies that 2008 did, and while we don't know yet know whether it will be as close as the ones in '00 and '04 were, there will be so much riding on it. For starters, it could decide the future of the U.S. safety net and the basic role of government (a GOP win would make passage of Paul Ryan’s budget plan much more realistic). It will determine what happens to the Bush tax cuts (an Obama win would probably end the tax cuts for the wealthy, while a Republican win would probably extend them). It could decide the fate of the health-care law (though the Supreme Court could do that next year). And it could very well determine the direction of the U.S. Supreme Court (the winner could potentially fill two or three SCOTUS vacancies). All presidential elections have plenty at stake, but this one could have more than many realize right now.

*** The battle over the size and role of government: One of us wrote that Friday’s nearly unanimous House GOP vote in favor of Ryan’s budget was a big gamble on Medicare for the Republican Party: Either the politics of Medicare have changed, or the GOP is about to walk into an electoral buzz saw. But in Sunday’s New York Times, Richard W. Stevenson framed it in an even bigger way, especially when you add the response to the GOP that President Obama gave on Wednesday. “What is under way now is the most fundamental reassessment of the size and role of government – of the balance between personal responsibility and private markets on the one hand and public responsibility and social welfare on the other -- at least since Ronald Reagan and perhaps since F.D.R.”

*** The House GOP’s first 100 days: Indeed, perhaps the best word to summarize the House’s first 100 days under GOP control is this: bold. They just didn’t take up what they campaigned in their “Pledge to America” -- vote to repeal the health-care law, cut spending for the rest of the fiscal year -- they went beyond that. They took on Medicaid, Medicare, abortion, and Planned Parenthood (all of which the “Pledge” ignored or barely mentioned). You can’t say House Republicans were timid, and they certainly were more aggressive than Democrats were during their first 100 days in congressional power in 2007. But Dems in ’07 didn’t do anything to change their glide path toward the White House in ’08. It’s an open question, however, if the House GOP’s first 100 days made the job of their party’s eventual presidential nominee more difficult. In fact, this group does not seem to care about whether they make Mitt Romney's (or Tim Pawlenty’s or Haley Barbour’s) job harder. This type of bold action in 1995 didn't help Bob Dole in 1996.

*** Selling the Ryan plan: While it probably won’t match those health-care town halls from the summer of 2009, House Republicans are going home during this two-week congressional recess to sell the budget plan they voted for on Friday. As Bloomberg News writes, "The budget fight spotlights the political risk confronting Republicans as Washington intensifies its focus on the long-term government deficits that will shape the country’s economic future and frame next year’s elections. How Republican leaders balance the expectations of Tea Party activists, who’ve pushed for cuts in popular programs including entitlements, with the need to protect vulnerable members in swing districts will define the party in the 2012 elections."

*** Selling the Obama plan: But this time, the White House isn't letting the House GOPers own the town hall stage. President Obama also hits the road this week to sell his own budget plan. He heads to Northern Virginia (on Tuesday), Facebook headquarters in Silicon Valley (on Wednesday), and Reno, NV (on Thursday). And by the way, today Obama is sitting down -- once again -- with local TV stations. Today's line-up: Denver, Raleigh, Dallas, and Indianapolis. The one of these that doesn't seem to belong on Obama's usual list of battleground affiliate interviews is Dallas. Then again, we know the demographic numbers in Texas have the Obama folks like David Plouffe and Jim Messina at least intrigued by the idea of at least trying to beef up the voter rolls in Texas and see if they can turn Texas '12 into, say, Virginia and Colorado ’04 -- two states that Kerry ended up NOT contesting but laid enough groundwork to make them competitive a cycle later.

*** Everybody’s working on the weekend… : Last week, we noted that the 2012 president campaign -- unless you’ve missed it -- is off and running. And that was certainly the case over the weekend. Among the activity: Pawlenty addressed a Tea Party rally in Iowa; Barbour was in South Carolina, where he won the Charleston County GOP straw poll and said he'd make up his mind about a presidential bid later this month; Gingrich made a stop in Georgia, where he "called for restrictions on abortion funding and requiring that students study religious references in the Declaration of Independence; Santorum played mini-golf in New Hampshire; and Trump was in Florida, where he "bragged about his intelligence and his business acumen, criticized areas of U.S. domestic and foreign policy, and again raised questions about whether the president is a U.S. citizen," the South Florida Sun-Sentinel noted. And Sarah Palin, in Wisconsin, hit a rally in support of Gov. Scott Walker.

*** Bachmann in South Carolina: And today, Michele Bachmann is in the 2012 spotlight, as she attends a Tea Party rally in Columbia, SC with Gov. Nikki Haley (R). The AP: “Monday's [tax] protest promises to give Bachmann the largest audience she has seen in South Carolina on two swings through the state. She is courting South Carolina support ahead of a decision whether to run for the GOP presidential nomination.”

*** Dems have their candidate in TX: McClatchy reports that Democrats "appear to have recruited retired Lt. Gen. Ricardo Sanchez to run for the U.S. Senate in Texas." Sanchez is the former military commander in Iraq who "was forced out by the Abu Ghraib prison scandal" (and how the left reacts to this will be interesting). Make no mistake: Democrats are the big underdog in the race to fill the Senate seat being vacated by Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R). But Sanchez’s candidacy, as well as Obama’s re-election, gives them a chance of picking up some of the Latino-heavy congressional seats they lost in 2010. Of course, we first need to see what happens in redistricting…

Countdown to NY-26 special election: 36 days
Countdown to Iowa GOP straw poll: 116 days
Countdown to Election Day 2011: 204 days
Countdown to the Iowa caucuses: 294 days
* Note: When the IA caucuses take place depends on whether other states move up

Click here to sign up for First Read emails.
Text FIRST to 622639, to sign up for First Read alerts to your mobile phone.
Check us out on Facebook and also on Twitter.

The Washington Post: "President Obama will hit the road this week and forcibly deliver his message that a combination of spending cuts and tax hikes on the rich is necessary to rein in the nation’s rocketing debt — a high-stakes effort to rally public support ahead of a series of contentious budget battles in Congress."

"From Northern Virginia Community College in Annandale to Facebook’s headquarters in Silicon Valley, Obama will make a series of campaign-style stops in an effort to block a Republican plan that would reduce the deficit by dramatically changing Medicare and reducing spending on education and other social programs."

"Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said Republican leaders have assured the White House they are prepared to lift the debt ceiling in time to avoid disruptions to capital markets and a potential credit default," the Wall Street Journal writes. "In interviews aired on the Sunday talk shows, Mr. Geithner said House Speaker John Boehner and other senior Republicans told President Barack Obama in discussions last week that they were aware of the risk of a credit default and were open to lifting the limit even in the absence of a comprehensive deal to slash the country's debt load."

Obama’s signing statement: “President Obama issued a signing statement on Friday night saying that he could bypass a provision in the new budget that would prevent him from appointing White House “czars” to oversee major policy initiatives,” the New York Times says.

More: “During his campaign for president, Mr. Obama criticized President George W. Bush for what he portrayed as abusive use of signing statements to nullify the will of Congress. Mr. Obama vowed to show greater restraint. To be sure, Mr. Bush’s use of signing statements was often informed by a conservative legal theory that invests enormous power in the office of the presidency, a theory to which Mr. Obama has not adhered. But since taking office, Mr. Obama has seemed less reticent to employ signing statements than his campaign statements may have suggested.”

The Sunday New York Times front-paged the work the bipartisan “Gang of Six” is doing in trying to forge a deficit-reduction compromise. “As Mr. Obama and Republican leaders have warred publicly over the budget, this small group of senators has spent four months in dozens of secretive meetings in offices at the Capitol and over dinner at the suburban Virginia home of Senator Mark Warner, a Democrat. The senators have weathered criticism from bloggers and even colleagues, including the leaders of their own parties, who oppose tampering with Social Security or taxes. The gang nearly collapsed several times, including two weeks ago.”

Bloomberg News notes how Tea Party freshmen are heading home to sell their votes in favor of the Ryan budget plan, which -- among other things -- phases out Medicare. The budget fight spotlights the political risk confronting Republicans as Washington intensifies its focus on the long-term government deficits that will shape the country’s economic future and frame next year’s elections. How Republican leaders balance the expectations of Tea Party activists, who’ve pushed for cuts in popular programs including entitlements, with the need to protect vulnerable members in swing districts will define the party in the 2012 elections.

Elizabeth Drew on the Washington budget battle: "The possibility of a bipartisan 'Grand Bargain' has grown dimmer, given the lines that have now been drawn, and the Republicans’ perhaps inevitable hyperbole about the President’s speech, which they denounced as 'partisan' (Heavens!) and a campaign gimmick. They could not entertain the possibility that Obama’s was a serious, thoughtful offering. The House’s adoption Thursday of the deal made between Obama and House Speaker John Boehner last Friday offers a glimmer of a possibility of compromise on much larger issues, but if the past is prologue, they would be compromises essentially on Republican terms.

On Sunday, Speaker John Boehner’s press office announced he was leading a congressional delegation to Iraq.

BACHMANN: “Saying she wants to debate President Barack Obama, U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann edged closer Saturday to a White House bid during a stop in Bluffton, South Carolina,” the Savannah Morning News writes. She told a gathering of more than 300 Tea Party supporters that she’s “setting up a committee in South Carolina next month.”

BARBOUR: Haley Barbour won the Charleston, South Carolina Republican Party straw poll on Friday, CNN writes. He won 22 percent of the 148 votes cast, while Mitt Romney finished second with 12 percent.

In an interview with the New Hampshire Union-Leader’s DiStaso, Barbour stopped short of calling for a withdrawal from Afghanistan but did say it is time for a “total re-evaluation” of the U.S. role there. “"I think it is time for the (Obama) administration to take a step back to look at what we're doing there. And if the mission is nation-building, the American people need to be told that in a very straightforward way. If the mission is still to win the war on terrorism, then we need to reconcile why we have 100,000 soldiers there and why we're spending $2 billion a week,” he said.

GINGRICH: Newt Gingrich spoke at the Gwinnett County, Georgia Republican convention, one of three stops in his home state, where he “blasted Democratic President Barack Obama for his approach to economic, environmental and foreign policy,” the Gwinnett Daily Post reports. “I want to bring a message of hope and opportunity,” he said. “At the beginning of 2013, we’re going to have an opportunity to put America back on track.”

Rep. Tom Price (R-GA) gave Gingrich his formal endorsement – before his official entry in the race, the Atlanta Journal Constitution writes.

PALIN: Sarah Palin spoke at a tea party rally in Madison, Wisconsin on Saturday, where she “defended Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker's stance against public employee unions and then took aim at both the national Republican Party and President Obama,” the Minneapolis Star Tribune recounts. “Challenging national Republicans to stand by principles such as cutting federal spending, Palin invoked the national champion University of Wisconsin women's hockey team. ‘Maybe I should ask them,’ she said of the hockey team members, ‘if we should be suggesting to GOP leaders they need to learn how to fight like a girl,’” she said.

PAWLENTY: Tim Pawlenty headlined Friday’s annual New Hampshire tea party rally in Concord, where he led a crowd in a call-and-response of what he called President Obama’s broken promises on deficit reduction health care and other topics. “Did President Obama break his promise? Yes, he did!” Pawlenty said, Reuters writes.

Pawlenty also spoke at a tea party rally in Des Moines on Saturday, the Minneapolis Star Tribune writes.

ROMNEY: During a stop in Florida on Friday, Mitt Romney said that Iowa and New Hampshire should keep their traditional roles as the first primary contests of the year, but indicated that he would stay out of the controversy over the actual date that Florida holds its primary, the AP reports.

The Boston Globe on Romney’s trip: “Romney met with supporters [Friday] for breakfast, and last night he planned to attend a fund-raiser at the Palm Beach home of billionaire Bill Koch, whose brothers helped fund the Tea Party movement. His trip here is part of a fund-raising tour that is expected to culminate with a phone-a-thon in Las Vegas on May 16, similar to a daylong fund-raising event Romney held in Boston during his last campaign, which drew 600 to 800 people and raised more than $1 million. Romney told donors on a recent conference call that he was expecting 1,000 supporters to make calls in Las Vegas — an astonishing number that even some of his top donors have trouble believing.”

The Boston Globe editorial page defends Mitt Romney’s Massachusetts health care plan, writing that conservatives “might be more favorably disposed if they understood the part Romney played in warding off various schemes feared by business. After an Urban Institute study recommended an individual mandate, Romney made that the core of his plan. That was a way of sidestepping the approach many Democrats favored: a payroll tax of 5 to 7 percent on businesses that did not offer health coverage.”

SANTORUM: Former Sen. Rick Santorum spoke to New Hampshire Tea Partiers at a Republican fundraiser on Saturday, telling the Granite State Liberty Political Action Committee that conservatives need to come together to be heard, the New Hampshire Union-Leader reports.

From NBC's Mark Murray
By voting almost unanimously Friday on House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan's budget -- which would phase out Medicare for those under 55 -- House Republicans have made this gamble for 2012.

Either the normal rules of American politics have changed, or Republicans have walked into an electoral buzz saw -- on a Medicare plan that won't pass the 112th Congress and that many of them didn't campaign on in 2010.

According to the normal rules of politics, voters like their Medicare. A lot. In a February NBC/WSJ poll, a whopping 76 percent of respondents said that significantly cutting Medicare as way to reduce the deficit was unacceptable.

In a separate question, 50 percent said it was unacceptable to gradually turn Medicare into a voucher system -- and that included 56 percent of independents, 61 percent of seniors, and 57 percent of white Blue Dog Democrats. By comparison, 44 percent said that such a plan was acceptable, including 56 percent of GOP primary voters and 65 percent of Tea Party supporters.

(Note: Ryan maintains that his plan wouldn't give seniors a voucher, but would instead give them a subsidy to help them purchase a private-insurance health plan.)

In other words, according to the poll, a fundamental change to Medicare is supported by the right, but not by the middle or the left.

And Democrats are already playing offense. "UNBELIEVABLE! DEAN HELLER VOTES TO END MEDICARE," reads a press release the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee sent about Nevada GOP Congressman Dean Heller, who's running for the Senate in 2012.

Only four House Republicans -- Ron Paul (TX), Walter Jones (NC), Denny Rehberg (MT), and David McKinley (WV) -- voted against the GOP budget measure. (Rehberg is running for Montana's Senate seat next year, and McKinley potentially faces a tough contest for re-election in 2012.)

The other House Republicans, from safe or competitive districts, voted for the budget. "I’m surprised at everyone outside of Utah who voted for that," said Jess McIntosh, a spokeswoman at the Democratic group EMILY's List. "Seniors went GOP in record numbers last year. Let’s see what happens in 2012."

A GOP strategist admitted that backing the Ryan plan is risky for the Republican Party. "I'm afraid the GOP is walking into a buzz saw," the strategist told First Read before today's vote. "There is no electoral mandate for entitlement reform. In fact, Democrats suffered with seniors in 2010 because of their cuts to Medicare in the health care bill."

On the other hand, Ryan and congressional Republicans are gambling that the politics over entitlement reform have changed -- that the country's finances are in such a mess that Medicare has to be altered.

"They are going to demagogue us, and it's that demagoguery that has always prevented political leaders in the past from actually trying to fix the problem. We can't keep kicking this can down the road," Ryan said on FOX News earlier this month. "The president has punted. We're not going to follow suit. And, yes, we will be giving our political adversaries things to use against us in the next election, and shame on them if they do that."

Democrats will definitely use the budget plan on Republicans in the next election. The only question is whether it will work.

Msnbc.com's Carrie Dann contributed to this article.

From NBC's Catherine Chomiak
Four potential Republican presidential candidates stopped in New Hampshire today to address an Americans for Prosperity Tea Party rally in Concord. 

Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R), in his third visit to the state this year, told the crowd, “We’re here today to send the message -- to the big government, big unions, big business, what I'd call the triangle of greed, the bailout businesses, big government, big unions. Let’s send them this message: Don’t tread on me!”

In his seventh swing through the Granite State since January, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum (R) said he was happy to be back. “No better place to be than, to talk about the overburden of taxation than the place that stands up and fights for limited government more than the great state of New Hampshire. So it's great to be here,” he said.

Outside the New Hampshire statehouse, Herman Cain told key constituents, “One of our biggest crisis is we have a deficiency of leadership in the White House.” This was his fourth trip to the state this year.

Former Louisiana Gov. Buddy Roemer (R) explained to the group gathered how his campaign would be financed and how it would make him a better president than any of the other potential candidates. “I accept no contribution great than $100,” Roemer said, “I take no PAC money. I report all monies given to me and I am free to lead a rising America.” This was his first time in the state this year.

The stop in New Hampshire is a must-do for those seeking their party’s nomination for president. The first-in-the-nation primary state has a long history of evaluating an meeting all prospective and declared candidates. The Tea Party, which the presidential hopefuls addressed today, is a growing constituency that will be important in the 2012 presidential race.

A look at the week ahead in politics: Palin's back on the scene, GOP hopefuls scatter across the primary states, Bill Clinton goes home again, Geithner on Meet, taxes due Monday, Obama heads to Facebook, Gary Johnson gets in, and asleep on the job.

The House has passed a FY2012 budget plan that would cut trillions in spending over the next decade and fundamentally transform the current Medicare system.

The vote in favor of the budget proposed by Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wisc., could prove politically perilous for some Republicans, who are likely to be painted by political opponents as insensitive to older voters who favor the current Medicare system.

But ultimately, only four Republicans voted against the measure, which includes a proposal to gradually transition the current Medicare system into a government-funded voucher program for seniors to purchase private health insurance.

All Democrats opposed the Republican budget.

Republicans voting against the Ryan plan were Reps. Ron Paul of Texas, Walter Jones of North Carolina, David McKinley of West Virginia, and Denny Rehberg of Montana.

In a February 2011 NBC/WSJ poll, half of respondents said that replacing Medicare with a voucher system was an “unacceptable” method to address the nation’s deficit, while 44 percent called the idea "acceptable."

Rep. Steve Israel, the campaign chairman charged with leading the committee to elect more House Democrats in 2012 , said this afternoon that his party will use the vote in campaign ads against vulnerable Republicans who support the Ryan plan. “We're going to hold every single Republican accountable for choosing to protect the special interest and turning their back on America's senior citizens by terminating their Medicare benefit,” he told ABC.

Earlier Friday, Democrats used a surprise strategy to force a close vote on a budget proposed by the Republican Study Committee, a caucus of conservatives in the house. Shouting and finger-pointing erupted on the House floor as Democrats voted “present” rather than ‘nay’ on that budget proposal in the effort to embarrass the GOP into approving a plan other than Ryan’s.  The RSC budget narrowly failed.

The Ryan plan is not expected to pass the Senate.

FILE - President Obama stands with Jon Huntsman at a town hall style event with Chinese youths at the Museum of Science and Technology in Shanghai in 2009. (AP)

This isn't the first time Jon Huntsman's work for the Obama administration has been an issue. And it won't the last, especially if Huntsman -- who is leaving his post as U.S. ambassador to China -- ends up running for the GOP presidential nomination.

The Daily Caller reports:

“You are a remarkable leader,” Huntsman wrote to Obama in an Aug. 16, 2009 note, underlining the word “remarkable,” “and it has been a great honor getting to know you.”

The letter thanks Obama for “the graciousness and kindness you have shown me and my family – particularly your confidence in my ability to represent you in China.” Huntsman said he was “leaving behind a state we love – but anticipating an extraordinary experience in Beijing.”

The response from Huntsman's camp:

Reached for comment about the letters, a political strategist who supports Huntsman tried to pin their release on the Obama White House.

“Need further proof that the White House fears Jon Huntsman? I think not,” the source said.

The person who sent the letters to TheDC did so on the condition their identity not be disclosed.

Today’s House vote on Paul Ryan’s budget could be a tough vote for the GOP… Breaking down yesterday’s votes on the short-term measure to fund the government for the rest of the fiscal year… Obama talks about his “political vote” against raising the debt ceiling in ’06… Santorum, Pawlenty, Cain, and Roemer attend Tea Party tax protest in New Hampshire… Palin to attend a similar rally in Wisconsin on Saturday… Romney focuses on Florida… The Democratic Super Pacmen… Deval Patrick hits Romney… Geithner to appear on “Meet the Press”… And Arizona legislature passes birther bill.

From NBC's Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** A tough vote: Despite a little pre-vote drama, the House of Representatives easily passed the short-term spending measure yesterday, albeit with some help from House Democrats. And with passage by the Senate, the legislation now heads to President Obama’s desk. But a more consequential House vote -- as far as the 2012 elections are concerned -- takes place today. Between 2:00 pm and 3:00 pm ET, the House will vote on Paul Ryan’s budget. And because it (among other things) phases out Medicare as we know it, which Obama reinforced in his speech on Wednesday, it could end up being a harder vote for GOP members than they may realize. “This is a tough vote, and this vote is going to come back and haunt some members,” former GOP Congressman and NRCC head Tom Davis said on MSNBC’s “Daily Rundown” this week. In retrospect, the Dem votes on health care in 2009 and 2010 certainly impacted last year’s midterms. But Democrats, after months of debate, knew what was coming. We’re not sure that some House Republicans know what they’re in store for after today’s vote. For those Republicans in the Midwest and states with older populations, take note.

*** Breaking down yesterday’s votes: Speaking of yesterday’s spending vote, the House passed it by a 260-167 margin, with 59 Republicans voting against it and 81 Democrats supporting it. Here’s a further breakdown, per NBC’s Shawna Thomas and MSNBC.com’s Carrie Dann: 27 of the 59 GOP dissenters were freshmen. And out of those 27, 12 are classified by NBC News as Tea Party-backed freshmen. Other notable GOP no’s are declared or possible statewide candidates for president or statewide office: Bachmann, Chaffetz, Flake, Heller, Pence, and Rehberg. In the Senate, the vote was 81-19. Per NBC’s Kelly O’Donnell, the GOP no’s were: Coburn, Crapo, DeMint, Ensign, Graham, Hatch, Inhofe, Johnson, Lee, Paul, Risch, Rubio, Shelby, Toomey, and Vitter. And the no’s from Democrats and Dem-leaning independents: Leahy, Levin, Sanders, and Wyden.

*** “A political vote”: In an interview with ABC yesterday, Obama talked about another vote -- his 2006 vote against raising the debt ceiling, which he described as “political.”” He said: “I think that it’s important to understand the vantage point of a senator versus the vantage point of a president. When you’re a senator, traditionally what’s happened is this is always a lousy vote. Nobody likes to be tagged as having increased the debt limit for the United States by a trillion dollars or a trillion and a half, whatever the number is. And so, traditionally the president’s party bears the burden of passing it. As President, you start realizing, ‘You know what? We-- we can’t play around with this stuff. This is the full faith in credit of the United States." And so that was just a example of a new senator you know, making what is a political vote as opposed to doing what was important for the country.  And I’m the first one to acknowledge it.”  Do as I say, not as I do? Tough lesson for anyone to learn until they themselves make the mistake?

*** The Tax Day protests cometh -- early: Beginning at 11:30 am ET at the statehouse in Concord, NH, the conservative group Americans for Prosperity -- which has ties to the billionaire Koch brothers -- holds a third annual Taxpayer Tea Party rally. Among the speakers are four Republicans running for president: Rick Santorum, Tim Pawlenty, Herman Cain, and Buddy Roemer. And on Saturday, Sarah Palin will attend an Americans for Prosperity Tea Party rally in Wisconsin. Note: Tax Day this year takes place on Monday, April 18.

*** Florida, Florida, Florida: How important is Florida becoming to Mitt Romney, even this far out? Consider: 1) Romney will be in Orlando today talking to Florida taxpayers outside an H&R Block branch at 11:00 am ET; 2) he has penned an op-ed in the Orlando Sentinel in which he praises the Tea Party, calls for the health-care law to be repealed, and proposes to reform corporate taxes; and 3) the early Romney campaign picked up the endorsement of Florida Congressman Connie Mack. Team Romney probably sees Florida the same way John McCain saw South Carolina in ’08: the place where you need a win after New Hampshire. Romney probably realizes that he’s going to lose in Iowa and South Carolina, and so needs a win in Florida. The possible danger: What happens if -- a la 2008 on the Dem side -- Florida ends up violating the RNC calendar and the other GOP presidentials decide not to play in the Sunshine State? Chew on that for a moment…

*** Super Pacmen: A year after various outside GOP groups -- like Americans for Prosperity, American Crossroads, Crossroads GPS, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce -- helped Republicans win back control of the House and pick up Senate seats, Democrats are responding with their own groups for 2012. They are either “Super PACs” (which accept unlimited contributions from named donors) or 501c(4)s (which accept unlimited contributions from anonymous donors, a practice Democrats decried last year). Strikingly, these groups have their own individual niches, and they are talking to one another as much as the law allows, they say. There are five of them:

-- The effort by former Obama White House aides Bill Burton and Sean Sweeney, which will focus on TV advertisements to help Democrats in the presidential contest
-- Majority PAC, which will focus on Senate races and is being run by former Harry Reid aides Susan McCue and Rebecca Lambe, as well as party operatives Jim Jordan and J.B. Poersch
-- House Majority PAC, which will focus on House races and is being run by former DCCC aides Ali Lapp, Nicole Runge, and Ryan Rudominer
-- American Bridge, which will focus on research and communications and is led by founder David Brock, chair Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, and former Reid aide Rodell Mollineau
-- Protect Your Care, which will focus on defending the health-care law and is being led by Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick, former Wisconsin Gov. Jim Doyle, and the Center for American Progress’ Neera Tanden.

Every campaign cycle has the other party learning (and sometimes OVER-learning) the tactical lessons from the last cycle.

*** Patrick vs. Romney: Speaking of Patrick, don’t miss his comment about Romney on Meet the Press’ Web “Press Pass”: “I think he was not as interested in and focused on doing the job as governor as many of us wanted, and he got a lot of criticism for that at the top. He’s always wanted to be president—he’s been running for president for a long, long time. I’m backing the other guy.” By the way, here’s the “Meet” lineup for Sunday: Treasury Secretary Geithner, plus a roundtable consisting of GOP Sen. Mike Lee, Alan Greenspan, former Dem Sen. Jennifer Granholm, Jon Meacham, and Tavis Smiley.

*** Arizona legislature passes “birther” bill: Three months after President Obama helped rally Arizona after the shootings in Tucson, the state legislature passed a bill that is considered an insult to the president. The Arizona Republic: “The Arizona Legislature has become the first in the nation to pass a measure requiring presidential candidates to provide proof of citizenship in order to get on the state's ballot. House Bill 2177 got final approval Thursday night from the House. It will be transmitted to Gov. Jan Brewer, who will then have five days to sign it, veto it or do nothing and allow it to become law.”

Countdown to NY-26 special election: 39 days
Countdown to Iowa GOP straw poll: 119 days
Countdown to Election Day 2011: 207 days
Countdown to the Iowa caucuses: 297 days
* Note: When the IA caucuses take place depends on whether other states move up

Click here to sign up for First Read emails.
Text FIRST to 622639, to sign up for First Read alerts to your mobile phone.
Check us out on Facebook and also on Twitter.

Supporters take photos of President Obama at a fundraising kickoff event at Navy Pier in Chicago last night. (AP)

The Chicago Tribune covers the president’s fundraisers in his hometown last night. “Speaking in Navy Pier's Grand Ballroom before an estimated 2,300 people who paid $100 to $250 to attend, Obama challenged the crowd to come together for him as they did four years ago. ‘Ordinary folks can do extraordinary things. That's what this campaign is about,’ Obama said at the event, which also featured Bulls all-star point guard and South Side native Derrick Rose, forward Joakim Noah and a former star from the team's championship years, B.J. Armstrong. The president later donned a Bulls cap.”

Politico adds, "The campaign’s main message in these early days is that supporters need to generate the opening wave of grassroots excitement, without relying on the president to fire up supporters personally, as he was able to do in 2008. 'Over the next three months, six months, nine months, I’m going to be a little preoccupied,' he told donors at the first of three Chicago fundraisers. 'I’m not going to see all of you as often I’d like. It means that I’m not going to be able to make that phone call to you and thank you even though my gratitude is profound.'"

President Obama admitted on ABC yesterday that he made a “political vote” when he voted against the debt-ceiling being raised in 2006. “That was just an example of a new Senator, you know, making what is a political vote, as opposed to doing what was important for the country. And I’m the first one to acknowledge it,” he said per Roll Call.

“Hispanics now outnumber African-Americans for the first time in most US metropolitan areas, shifting the political and racial dynamics in cities once dominated by whites and blacks,” the AP reports from the latest Census data released this week.

"The U.S. House of Representatives passed hard-fought legislation Thursday that slices nearly $40 billion out of the government budget for the remainder of the fiscal year," the AP reports. "The Senate followed with its approval quickly, voting 81-19."

The New York Times: “Scores of House Republicans deserted their leadership to vote against the bill … saying it did not go far enough. As a result, Speaker John A. Boehner was forced to rely on large numbers of Democrats to pass the measure.”

“More than half the Democratic caucus split with President Obama and voted against the 2011 spending deal Thursday,” The Hill adds. “In the 260-167 vote, 108 of the no votes came from House Democrats, including Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.).”

Rep. Paul Ryan’s (R-WI) controversial budget proposal will get a vote in the House today. The AP: “A bold but politically risky plan to cut billions of dollars from the federal budget is coming to a House vote, with insurgent Republicans rallying behind the idea of fundamentally reshaping the government's role in health care for the elderly and the poor.”

“Senate Democrats and the White House are pressuring Republican members of the Gang of Six to reach an agreement on a deficit-reduction package so it can be used as a credible alternative to the budget unveiled last week by House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), according to Senate sources,” The Hill reports. Obama friend Dick Durbin, who’s a member of the Gang of Six said, “They’re impatient and I don’t blame them. Let’s look back at the healthcare debate. There was a study group there that never finished.”

BACHMANN: “LensCrafters is not happy that Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann has yanked the company into America's abortion debate,” the New York Daily News says. “The international eyewear retailer requested that the Tea Party darling and aspiring presidential candidate stop using the company's name days after Bachmann said Planned Parenthood was ‘the LensCrafters of big abortion.’”

Michele Bachmann released a statement after her vote on the Continuing Resolution to fund the government through September:  “The American people gave us a mandate last fall to cut spending, and to fight to repeal ObamaCare and defund Planned Parenthood. This CR fell woefully short in terms of spending cuts, and left the other two key issues as stand-alone amendments. I was pleased to vote for both of those amendments, but they were defeated in the Senate.”

BARBOUR: Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour’s visit to Riley’s Gun Shop in Hooksett, New Hampshire “underscored not only Barbour's support for Second Amendment freedoms, but also his affinity for the ideals embraced in the lead presidential primary state,” the Boston Globe writes. During a conversation with owner Ralph Demicco and, later, reporters against a backdrop of ammunition boxes, Barbour expressed his support for low taxes and aversion to government spending; for the right to keep and bear arms; and for the Granite State's conservative tradition. ‘I told them outside, 'A lot of targets' – the liberal media,’ Barbour quipped to Demicco as the two chatted amid a pack of reporters, television, and still cameras.”

HUCKABEE: Without the aid of anyone in the Huckabee camp, a group of Iowa loyalists to the former Arkansas governor have started a campaign – complete with online radio show, Facebook page and telephone campaign - to stay committed to the state’s 2008 caucus winner, the Des Moines Register writes. “As other potential conservative contenders roam Iowa’s presidential testing grounds and scoop up ace Iowa strategists for their campaigns, Huckabee fans began to feel anxious about the lack of organizing here for their guy. So they pulled out the four-year-old campaign lists and have so far contacted about 540 people who helped catapult Huckabee to a top finish in Iowa’s first-in-the-nation Republican caucuses in 2008.”

PALIN: Sarah Palin will attend a Tea Party Tax Day Rally, sponsored by Americans for Prosperity, in Wisconsin on Saturday, The Hill reports.

PAUL: Ron Paul has formed a “testing the waters” campaign.

ROMNEY: “Since his defeat in the 2008 GOP presidential primary, a few political friends have given generously to Romney’s political operation, providing him a financial and organizational edge as the 2012 campaign gets underway,” The Boston Globe reports. But Romney has also “become a master of a controversial but legal fund-raising technique that relies on a network of loosely regulated state political action committees to collect those funds.” Donations that exceed federal PAC limits were donated to Romney’s state PACs and then the money was transferred to the federal PAC. Here’s a look at Romney’s top contributors. He was able to raise $1.5 million from just 38 people – an average of more than $39,000 a person.

SANTORUM: Rick Santorum told the New Hampshire Union-Leader’s John DiStaso that he found the biggest encouragement to take the next step toward a presidential candidacy in the reception he received in New Hampshire. “I don't mean to sound patronizing and I'm not being patronizing, but the thing that convinced me more than any other thing that has happened is the great reception I've gotten in New Hampshire," Santorum said. "It has really surprised me, the warmth of the reception, the crowds and the volunteers and the affirmation of what they're looking for is someone who's authentic and has stood for these principles in good times and in bad times."

TRUMP: Stumped: “The Donald ducked a question about how many members serve in the House of Representatives in a profile published in Time today,” The New York Post writes. "Well, I don't want to answer your questions because this isn't a history class," said Trump, who insisted he knew the answer. "You could get some stiff that knows every one of those answers, but is incapable of governing."

From NBC's Catherine Chomiak
Visiting New Hampshire today, Mississippi Gov. and potential GOP presidential candidate Haley Barbour faced questions about Washington. His second trip to the Granite State this year included a stop by a Hooksett restaurant and gun shop as well as some questions about the budget.
 
While shaking local patrons’ hands, one man asked him about the budget deal that passed in the House today. The man, concerned that the continuing resolution didn’t deliver the types of cuts Republicans promised, called the numbers “dishonest,” referring to the $38.5 billion spending-cut deal the Congressional Budget Office now estimates only creates $350 million in savings for this year (but includes bigger cuts in future years).

“We’ve got three bites at the apple,” Barbour explained, “We’ve had the little bite at the apple. Next, we hit the debt ceiling. The debt ceiling is our maximum point of leverage. And then we have the real budget. And so, I’m not harsh on the House guys.”
           
Barbour also weighed in on the GOP budget proposal by Rep. Paul Ryan. “The main thing Congressman Ryan did is he was direct with the American people, upfront with the American people. President Obama says currently entitlements are not sustainable, but he’s never proposed doing anything about it until, maybe he did yesterday,” Barbour said referencing Obama’s speech in Washington yesterday.
           
If Barbour were in Obama’s shoes right now his plan would be, “economic growth and spending cuts together get you a balanced budget.”
           
Barbour also addressed the birther issue, brought back to life by another potential Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump. “I just accept at face value that the president’s born where he says he’s born,” Barbour said flatly.
           
While in the first-in-the-nation primary state Barbour dismissed the notion of running for vice president and joked, “Any Republican candidate for president who can’t carry Mississippi probably is not going to get very far.”

By a vote of 81-19, the Senate has passed a bill to fund the government for the rest of year, officially averting a government shutdown with its approval of the budget deal struck late last week.

The bill, which passed the House earlier this afternoon, now goes to the president's desk.

Fifteen Republican senators, three Democrats, and one independent (who caucuses with Democrats) voted against the measure.

As expected, the Senate has voted down a measure to defund Planned Parenthood, with five Republicans voting with Democrats to keep the funding in place.

The vote was 42-58.

Republicans voting against the stand-alone resolution to defund Planned Parenthood were: Sen. Scott Brown of Massachusetts, Sen. Mark Kirk of Illinois, Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, and Sens. Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe of Maine.

The same resolution passed the House earlier today by a vote of 241 to 185. Seven House Republicans voted to keep the Planned Parenthood funding, while 10 Democrats voted to eliminate it.

The budget agreement completed last Friday included a deal to eliminate a “rider” attached to the must-pass funding bill that would have cut  “Title X” funding for women’s health organizations that also conduct abortions.  

NBC's Kelly O'Donnell contributed

From NBC’s Lauren Stephenson
Sen. Pat Toomey (R-PA) appeared on "Andrea Mitchell Reports" this afternoon to discuss the impending decision to raise the debt ceiling. Toomey said "the big divide here is between an administration that wants us to raise the debt ceiling with no conditions and no change in policy -- and those of us, like myself, who think we should raise the debt ceiling, provided that we have some structural and process reforms."

Toomey disagreed with Treasury Secretary Geithner's analogy that not raising the debt ceiling is like defaulting on your mortgage or credit card bills. "That analogy, of course, totally obscures the fact that both your mortgage and your credit card are debts that you have incurred."

The Republican said he has a better analogy: "A family that has been living beyond its means and run up huge debt would have to make some tough decisions, like maybe laying off the nanny, not going on an expensive vacation. Maybe they would have to make some cuts."

While the Pennsylvania senator intends to release his own budget proposal, he was complimentary of House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan's plan stating it is "bold and courageous, and has very substantive and very constructive reforms of the kind we need."

The senator did not give specific details of his proposal, saying it is "a work in progress."

From NBC's Michelle Perry
Appearing on MSNBC's "Andrea Mitchell Reports," Florida Sen. Marco Rubio (R) said he will not support the short-term spending deal when it reaches the Senate.

"I understand people worked really hard on it. I understand the tough position that many in leadership are in. But I want to see this issue dealt with, with a seriousness and the intensity that it deserves. This is a major issue -- perhaps as an important issue as anything that policymakers have had to tackle in this country in the last 25 or 30 years, and I don't sense urgency around it."

The freshman senator was critical of the process on Capitol Hill, "I get up here and I realize there's not a real seriousness about dealing with this issue. So I'm not going to come up here and start participating in what I think are not serious efforts towards solving this."

Of the current debate on the 2012 budget and debt ceiling, Rubio said he doesn't see a "serious effort" coming from Treasury Secretary Geithner and the Obama White House. "If we come back in a few weeks and all we do is raise the debt limit without any plan to get a hold of this problem, we're risking a catastrophe. I agree, I don't like this politics by brinksmanship. Let's start working on it now, stop giving campaign speeches, and give real solutions to the problem."

When asked if he would oppose any efforts to add social issues on to the debt ceiling, as was seen with abortion and Planned Parenthood in the short-term spending deal, Rubio told Mitchell, "I want the debt issue to be dealt with in its totality as a debt issue. That's what I hope we'll do."

Rubio, extremely popular with the Tea Party and a rising star in his party is seen by some as a top GOP vice presidential candidate in 2012. But the senator says his job is big enough, "I suppose I should be flattered by those statements they've made, but the reality is I'm focused on this job."

From NBC's Shawna Thomas and Carrie Dann
The House has passed a compromise budget bill to fund the government for the rest of the fiscal year, with 59 Republicans breaking with House Speaker John Boehner to vote against the measure.

The vote was 260-167, with 81 Democrats voting for the deal reached by negotiators late last Friday night.

The bill – which was originally advertised as cutting $38 billion in federal spending – has been criticized by some conservative Republicans who said that the cuts were inadequate to address the government’s ballooning debt. 

The Congressional Budget Office said Thursday that, although it does reduce government agencies’ authority to spend almost $40 billion, CBO estimates that the total savings in the bill are closer to about $20-25 billion for this fiscal year.

Of the 59 GOP defections, 27 were freshmen members. The number of Republicans who broke with their party is comparable to those who bucked their leaders when the last stopgap “continuing resolution” passed the House on March 15. Fifty-four Republicans opposed that measure.

But the Republican opposition signals that Boehner did not have enough GOP votes to pass the budget deal without Democratic support. (There are currently 241 Republicans in the house; it takes 217 'yes' votes to pass a bill.)

Speaking on the House floor before the vote, Boehner acknowledged that the compromise legislation, which he negotiated for with President Barack Obama and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, did not contain the depth of cuts he would have wanted.

“Is it perfect? No,” he said. “I'd be the first one to admit that it's flawed.”

“Well, welcome to divided government,” he added.

The bill now goes to the Senate, which is expected to pass it later today.

From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
A day after President Obama gave a withering speech that eviscerated House Republicans' budget proposal, Democrats said they would use the GOP agenda to help them hold the Senate.

“The foil of this election is not the past; it is the present and most decidedly the future,” Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA), chairwoman of the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee, told reporters at a meeting this morning to discuss the 2012 landscape in which Senate control hangs in the balance.

Democrats face an uphill climb in their chances at holding the Senate -- 23 of their members (or ones who caucus with them) are up for reelection next year. Republicans need to flip four seats to take control if President Obama wins re-election; if he doesn’t, they just need to net three.

Asked what a good night for her party would be on Election Night 2012, Murray said, “Winning the majority of the United States Senate.”

Murray said she is more optimistic today about holding the Senate than when she was first offered the job. Then, it was “doom and gloom,” she said, adding though that she sees a “changing landscape” that is moving toward Democrats. She said the DSCC’s Web site, for example, has seen contributions increase three-and-a-half times since this time in 2009.

With Republicans in control of the House, “we’re seeing most decidedly what their agenda is,” Murray said. She cited, in particular, Republicans’ stance during last week’s budget and spending debate that threatened a government shutdown.

“The last open item wasn’t budget cuts,” she contended, “it was women’s health care” and cuts to Planned Parenthood.

She argued that jobs and the economy are still No. 1 in voters’ minds, especially independents,’ and they are looking at Republicans and thinking, “What? You talked about the debt and deficit and here’s what you want to do?”

Couple that with the Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) budget “and what people are seeing is what they stand for,” Murray said. She described the Ryan budget as one that asks no sacrifice of billionaires, one that would hurt working families, and “dramatically goes after Medicare.”

“This is a real dagger in the heart of a lot of American families,” Murray said, adding later that it shows the “difference between who we are and what they believe in.”

Still, Democrats will largely be playing defense. First Read's latest Top 10 Senate Takeovers showed eight of the top 10 were Republican targets -- North Dakota, Nebraska, Montana, Missouri, Virginia, New Mexico, Florida, and Michigan. Democrats' best targets are in Nevada and Massachusetts. Nevada is likely to be a toss up. Democrats have high hopes for left-leaning Massachusetts in an election year. But so far, they don't have a candidate and, more importantly, incumbent Republican Scott Brown remains popular.

Murray unveiled today what she called Democrats’ “Six in ’12” campaign -- meaning six places they will go on offense next year, including Nevada and Massachusetts, as well as Maine, Indiana, Arizona, and even Texas. Maine and Indiana were there because of the potential for Tea Party primary challengers to topple GOP incumbents; and Arizona and Texas because of “changing demographics.”

In reality, however, many of those are likely long shots.

National Republican Senatorial Committee spokesman Brian Walsh responded this way in a statement: “While national Democrats appear oblivious to the reality that a number of their incumbents are running in red states next year, Republicans can only hope they continue to demand that every one of their candidates toe the party line in favor of higher taxes, more spending and a record debt. Instead of listening to voters and learning from their losses at the ballot box last November, Democrats are doubling-down on their big government agenda and their extreme, left-wing rhetoric leaves their party even more vulnerable to losing control of the Senate next year.

Murray, though, described herself as “pragmatic,” and said of the job ahead for Democrats: “This is not easy.”

From NBC's Jason Seher
In a House Oversight and Government Reform Committee hearing exploring state and municipal debt, Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-OH) challenged Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) to admit his legislative campaign aimed at stripping public employees’ collective bargaining rights did nothing to help solve his state’s budget deficit.
 
"If the unions agreed to the financial cuts you demand," Kucinich told Walker, "I don't understand how repealing collective bargaining rights for public workers shows us anything about state debt."
 
The longtime Ohio congressman accused Walker of politicizing an important state fiscal debate and claimed his legislation impacting unions saved no money whatsoever. Citing a document published by the Wisconsin Legislative Fiscal Bureau asserting that Walker’s efforts to the repeal the rights of state workers were non-fiscal, Kucinich briefly clashed with committee chairman Darrell Issa (R-CA), when he asked for unanimous consent to have the document included as part of the official record. 

Issa said, while "we fully expect to include it in the record," he reserved the right to object to the document until it had been vetted by committee members. That outraged Kucinich.
 
"In the 14 years I've been on the committee," Kucinich said, "I've never had a chairman reserve the right to object to a document that is central to this hearing. It's a political issue!"
 
Kucinich continued his assault on Walker and other Wisconsin Republicans, blaming them for the $137 million budget shortfall that roused this entire debate. Wisconsin allowed their estate tax to expire on Jan. 1, 2008. Kucinich argued that had Wisconsin not let the estate tax expire, the revenue that would have been collected from wealthy estates would have totaled enough to cover the $137 million deficit. Concluding his questioning, Kucinich did thank Gov. Walker in the hearing -- if only backhandedly.    
 
"Gov. Walker has done an inadvertent public service -- by exposing the mindset that is privatizing government and bringing the public sphere to the forefront. Is government going to be auctioned off to the highest bidder? To corporations who drive up the cost of government and services?"
 
Arguing that his reforms went a long way in protecting the middle class and the average Wisconsin worker, Walker said that he would never speak "an ill-word on any of these decent public workers," and that his measures protected public sector employees from massive layoffs. The budget deficit, he said, left him with a choice between making these reforms or handing out pink slips to thousands of public sector employees -- a choice he contends was relatively easy. 
  
"If I have to choose between making these massive layoffs and making reforms," said Walker, "I'm going to choose those reforms."
 
Walker also asserted the unions were consistently unreasonable in negotiations, rejecting proposal after proposal. While Walker admitted that unions agreed to the measures impacting direct contributions to public employee pensions and raising their health insurance premiums, he maintained they failed to rein in local unions across the state. In the weeks that followed the initial negotiations, Walker said his administration quickly discovered state union leaders could not speak for the rest of the state as local unions settled their contracts without including increased health-care or pension contributions.

As Politico's Ben Smith has pointed out, some prominent African Americans aren't exactly fans of Donald Trump’s questions about President Obama’s citizenship.

And African Americans, one of us wrote earlier this week, happen to be one of the  few voting blocs with a solid net-positive view of the real estate mogul. According to a February NBC/WSJ poll, 27 percent of black respondents have a favorable opinion of Trump, while 22 percent take a negative view. (Compare that to 26% positive/ 29% negative overall.)

That may be true, but today on the Fred Dicker radio show, Trump boasted of his relationship with the black community in a particularly, well, blunt way.

"I have a great relationship with the blacks,” Trump said. “I've always had a great relationship with the blacks.”

Referring to poll numbers that show enduringly high support for President Barack Obama among black voters, Trump pointed to race as a reason that he – like Hillary Clinton before him– would be unable to capture more African-American support.

“Unfortunately, it seems that, you know, the numbers you cite are very, very frightening numbers," he said.

Trump is expected to make a decision on a presidential run by June.

Per a written statement, "On the May 22^nd Season Finale of Celebrity Apprentice, Mr. Trump may announce the time and place of a press conference at which time he will make a statement as to whether or not he will run for President of the United States."

Nevada Congresswoman Shelley Berkley (D), who represents Las Vegas, will make a bid for next year's open Senate seat being vacated by Sen. John Ensign (R), First Read has confirmed.

Another member of Congress from Nevada, Dean Heller (R), has announced he's running for the seat -- though on the Republican side.

AP

President Obama delivers his speech at George Washington University yesterday on debt and deficits. It served really as a first campaign speech of 2012 for Obama.

The 2012 race is certainly off and running… Tonight in Chicago, Obama attends his first fundraisers as a 2012 candidate… Today’s House vote on the spending-cut deal: How many GOP votes does Boehner get? And do Pelosi and Bachmann end up voting the same way?... Breaking down Obama’s deficit speech -- his three audiences, the Ryan foil, and the GOP rebuttal… Scott Walker testifies on Capitol Hill… Santorum says he’s testing the waters… A busy day in the Granite State… And DCCC announces $19.6 million haul in first quarter.

From NBC's Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** Off and running: Somewhat lost in the clashes over spending and the deficit this week has been this development: The 2012 presidential race is off and running. Last week, President Obama officially filed for his re-election. Earlier this week, Mitt Romney formed his committee (calling it an "exploratory" but filing a statement of candidacy), while Tim Pawlenty reminded the country that he's "running for president" (before saying that he'd make his official announcement later). Yesterday, Obama delivered what seemed to be his first 2012 campaign speech, and Romney, Pawlenty, and Newt Gingrich issued statements reacting to it. Then Rick Santorum last night announced he’s established a testing-the-waters committee. And Donald Trump has been, well, everywhere these past few weeks. 

*** Obama heads back home to Chicago: And tonight, Obama attends his first fundraiser as a 2012 candidate -- three of them, in fact. The fundraisers, which will take place in his home town of Chicago, will raise several million dollars for the joint DNC-Obama campaign fund. Two of them will feature a combined 225 donors who will contribute as much as $30,000-plus per person to the joint fund. The other one will be attended by approximately 2,000 people who will donate at least $100 per person. Among the attendees tonight: former Chicago Bulls point guard BJ Armstrong, current Bulls point guard Derrick Rose, Rashard Mendenhall of the Pittsburgh Steelers, and Chicago Cubs legend Ernie Banks. Also Grammy Award-winning artist Colbie Caillat will perform. 

 *** Today’s House vote: Moving from the 2012 presidential campaign to the spending fight on Capitol Hill, it isn’t every day that Nancy Pelosi and Michele Bachmann vote the same way. But it looks like that could happen with today’s House vote on the $38.5 billion spending-cut deal that the White House and congressional Republicans reached last Friday. (The Hill reports that Pelosi has been silent about how she would vote, but that two other members of the Democrats’ House leadership team will vote against the legislation.) More importantly, the vote isn’t going to be easy for Speaker John Boehner, and the biggest story to watch here is how many House Republicans end up voting for it -- especially with the Congressional Budget Office estimating that the legislation creates only $350 MILLION in savings this year (because it increases about $5 billion for Pentagon programs). In fact, Boehner writes an op-ed in Politico defending and selling the deal. Per NBC’s Shawna Thomas, the House is expected to vote on the spending-cut measure between 2:00 pm and 3:00 pm ET, and the Senate is planning to debate and vote on it today as well.

 *** Obama's three audiences: President Obama's deficit/debt/entitlement speech yesterday appeared to have three audiences. Those elusive independent voters were his first audience, and he told them he would cut the budget but with balance and sacrifice for all. Democratic liberals upset by Friday's spending-cut deal and December's tax-cut deal made up a second audience. To them, Obama gave a full-throated defense of the safety-net programs and vowed he would sunset the tax cuts for the wealthy. Republicans were his final audience. To them, he skewered their proposal to phase out Medicare and to keep those tax cuts for the wealthy. And Obama delivered another message to the GOP: It was under their party's previous president and GOP-controlled Congress that began racking up the deficits. In short, the speech was as much about defining the GOP budget plan -- coming before the House votes on the Ryan proposal on Friday -- as it was checking the box on addressing the deficit and debt.

 *** The GOP’s rebuttal: But Republicans delivered this message back at Obama: raising taxes is a non-starter. Boehner: “Any plan that starts with job-destroying tax hikes is a non-starter. We need to grow our economy -- not our government -- by creating a better environment for private sector job growth.” And here’s Mitt Romney: "With over 20 million people who are unemployed or who have stopped looking for work, the last thing we should be doing is raising taxes on job-creators, entrepreneurs, and small business owners across America.”  It's hard to believe there really was common ground found -- as the president's surrogates tried to claim last night and this morning. Sure, both parties agree that the growing deficits and debt need to be tackled, but there are DRAMATIC differences between the two parties on how to get there. Does anyone believe either party is ready to cave now BEFORE a presidential election year? Good luck with that new commission.

 *** Other quick thoughts on yesterday’s speech: While Paul Ryan’s move to go first in the entitlement debate “smoked” out Obama, as an Urban Institute fellow told the New York Times, Ryan’s plan gave Obama a foil -- and a chance to lay out a potentially optimistic campaign message against what he sees as the GOP’s pessimistic plan. Put another way, it allows the incumbent to be able to run against something in 2012. Yet the speech also was inconsistent by blasting the GOP idea but then calling for both sides to still come together. Obama even acknowledged the inconsistency yesterday. "Though I’m sure the criticism of what I’ve said here today will be fierce in some quarters, and my critique of the House Republican approach has been strong, Americans deserve and will demand that we all make an effort to bridge our differences and find common ground," he said.

*** Scott Walker on Capitol Hill: Beginning at 9:30 am ET, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) will testify before Darrell Issa’s House Oversight and Government Reform Committee. The topic: “State and Municipal Debt: Tough Choices Ahead.” The Hill says that Walker could be in for a rowdy welcome. “A coalition of liberal groups including People for the American Way, Common Cause and Public Campaign is scheduled to give a press conference outside the hearing room before Walker testifies, and union members are traveling in from Wisconsin to attend.”

*** Santorum says he’s testing the waters: On FOX last night, Rick Santorum announced he was establishing a “testing the waters” committee, which is similar to what Newt Gingrich (for now) has set up. “We're going to determine over the next few weeks as to whether the resources are going be there” for a presidential bid, he said, according to NBC’s Lauren Selsky. Remember, the only OFFICIAL way to "explore" running for president is to open a "testing the waters" committee with the FEC. These campaigns that have "exploratory" in their name are actually legal full-fledged campaigns for president.

*** A busy day in the Granite State: Santorum, Haley Barbour, Tim Pawlenty, and Buddy Roemer are all in New Hampshire today; in fact, Santorum will lay out his plan for job growth, the nation’s debt, and government spending. Meanwhile, Herman Cain begins his day in Michigan to attend a Tea Party rally, and then makes a speech at Furman University in South Carolina

*** DSCC and DCCC news: At 11:00 am ET, DSCC Chair Patty Murray holds a pen-and-pad session with reporters to discuss how the GOP budget plan “will impact the 2012 Senate landscape.” And the DCCC today is announcing that it raised $19.6 million in the first quarter of 2011, which it says is the committee’s biggest off-year first quarter ever.

*** Programming note: Florida Sen. Marco Rubio (R) appears on “Andrea Mitchell Reports,” which airs at 1:00 pm ET. 

Countdown to NY-26 special election: 40 days
Countdown to Iowa GOP straw poll: 120 days
Countdown to Election Day 2011: 208 days
Countdown to the Iowa caucuses: 298 days
* Note: When the IA caucuses take place depends on whether other states move up

Click here to sign up for First Read emails.
Text FIRST to 622639, to sign up for First Read alerts to your mobile phone.
Check us out on Facebook and also on Twitter.

The Washington Post’s Dan Balz writes, “Obama’s address left many questions unanswered, but there was no doubt that the president and his White House advisers regarded it as one of the most important political speeches he will make in his second two years in office. It was an effort to regain the offensive in a debate that will dominate budget negotiations for the rest of this year and will probably shape the choices voters will face in the 2012 presidential election.”

“President Barack Obama asked Congress to adopt a mix of revenue increases and spending cuts to tame the nation's long-term budget deficits, in a combative speech that portrayed Republicans as backing ‘tax cuts for millionaires and billionaires’ while demanding sacrifice from the nation's seniors, poor and the middle class,” the Wall Street Journal adds.

The New York Times: "In a sign of the tensions the plan may cause within the administration, officials at the Pentagon said Mr. Gates was not told of Mr. Obama’s proposal until Tuesday. In a statement, a Pentagon spokesman, Geoff Morrell, said that 'further significant defense cuts' would reduce the military’s capability. 'It is important that any reduction in funding be shaped by strategy and policy choices, and not be a budget math exercise,' Mr. Morrell said."

Time magazine's Joe Klein: The strongest section of the President's speech was a history lesson. We didn't have a significant deficit problem 10 years ago. We had a budget surplus. We did have the long-term question of how to pay for the baby boomers' old-age benefits, but that was, and is, a manageable problem. The "crisis" we face was visited upon us by the very people now screaming loudest about the budget deficit. Republicans, colleagues of Paul Ryan's, voted for the Bush tax cuts — which, as Obama noted, added $500 billion per year to the deficit — and they also voted for the (unpaid for) wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and a massive (unpaid for) Medicare prescription-drug benefit.

The Boston Globe’s take: “The president had asked Ryan to attend the speech at George Washington University. But at the end of the address, the chairman of the House Budget Committee left frustrated by the details of Obama’s plan and the tone of his words. ‘When the president reached out to ask us to attend his speech, we were expecting an olive branch,’ Ryan said in a statement. ‘Instead, his speech was excessively partisan, dramatically inaccurate, and hopelessly inadequate to address our fiscal crisis.’”

Here’s a helpful graphic based on AP comparing Obama’s plan to Ryan’s.

Roll Call: “Obama’s proposal merely sets an opening bid for negotiations with the GOP over the next two months.”