House and Senate buy two more weeks, but then what? … White House and Senate Dems have a failure to communicate… It’s NBC/WSJ poll day… Pragmatism vs. centrism and Obama’s event with Jeb Bush on Friday… Afghanistan and the GOP… The RNC goes up with ad in Wisconsin… Team Newt’s mixed signals… Huckabee’s incorrect statement about Kenya… Barbour addresses U.S. Chamber of Commerce… And Kerry and Lieberman to appear on “Andrea Mitchell Reports.”

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** Buying two more weeks: Circle March 18 on your calendars, because it will be the next deadline in the Republican-vs.-Democrat spending showdown on Capitol Hill. Yesterday, per NBC’s Shawna Thomas and Kelly O’Donnell, the House passed its short-term continuing resolution (containing $4 billion in cuts) to extend government funding for two weeks, which will expire on March 18. The vote was 335-91, with 85 Dems and six GOPers voting no. And today at 11:00 am ET, the Senate will take up the same measure. Once it passes, it will go to President Obama’s desk for his signature. And then … we’ll start this process over again. But this time, the burden shifts to Senate Democrats to come up with a plan to fund the government over the rest of the year. The House has already presented two plans -- 1) this two-week stopgap and 2) broader legislation containing $61 billion in cuts. Also, the New York Times reports that “one senior Senate Republican official predicted ... that at least one more temporary budget bill was in the cards before any final agreement.”

*** What we’ve got here is a failure to communicate: Yet here’s what we’ve learned this week: The White House and Senate Democrats don’t seem to be communicating well. This came out after the Obama White House floated an idea for a four-week continuing resolution. House Republicans complained that they heard about the request too late to do anything about, while the White House has claimed they've been involved in the process (though have been careful NOT to say they've been involved in the negotiations). No one will say for the record why the president called Speaker Boehner before the House vote yesterday. But here are a few questions worth asking: Was it the president asking the speaker for more time to develop a four-week CR? Was it the president trying to clear up confusion in communications between the Senate Dem leadership and the House GOP leadership? Here's what we do know: The call happened at lunchtime, and the House Republicans voted for the CR about three hours later. And we also know the communication between the White House and Senate Democrats was not great during the lame duck session, in particular, with Sen. Chuck Schumer. Draw your own conclusions.

*** NBC/WSJ poll day! What does the American public think about a government shutdown? Whom would they blame if it happens? Tune in to NBC Nightly News, or click on to MSNBC.com, beginning at 6:30 pm ET for the results from our new NBC/WSJ poll, which also will contain numbers on Obama’s standing and the 2012 race.

*** Pragmatism vs. centrism: We agree with the analysis that President Obama hasn’t really moved from the left (where he was in 2009-2010) to the center (for 2011-2012); instead, he’s pretty much been in the same ideological place. But what Obama has done is emphasize -- as we head into 2012 -- that he’s a pragmatist. It’s why he said he’s seeking to eliminate unnecessary regulations. It’s why he spoke at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. And it’s why, on Friday, he’ll meet with Jeb Bush to discuss education. There’s a difference between pragmatism and centrism. Reagan attempted the same balance, as did Bush 43. Clinton was more of a centrist from the beginning, so his shift was easier to sell at the time.

*** Afghanistan and the GOP: You know the sayings, “You never play poker against someone whose first name is a U.S. city,” and, “You never fight a land war in Asia.” Interestingly, Defense Secretary Robert Gates, who also served under George W. Bush during the Iraq surge, made the latter point -- and more -- in a speech he gave at West Point last week. “Any future Defense secretary who advises the president to again send a big American land army into Asia or into the Middle East or Africa should 'have his head examined,' as General [Douglas] MacArthur so delicately put it.” It was a similar line that got then-RNC Chair Michael Steele in trouble. And, privately, we’ve recently heard other prominent Republicans express doubts about Afghanistan. In our January NBC/WSJ poll, only a combined 31% of Republicans want U.S. troops to leave Afghanistan now or removed beginning on the July 2011 timetable (versus a combined 52% of Democrats). Republicans right now are the ones who are propping up the poll numbers in support of Afghanistan, but if they begin to start questioning the war…At a minimum, Gates' rather blunt remarks (which have been left open to interpretation by folks with their own agendas) haven't started a HIGH-profile debate about the war just yet, but they still might. Reminder: Later this month, Gen. Petraeus comes to Washington to update Congress on the war.

*** The RNC goes up in Wisconsin: The Republican National Committee now becomes the second national GOP party committee to air a TV ad in Wisconsin’s budget standoff. An RNC spokesperson says that the ad will air in Madison and Milwaukee for the rest of the week. (However, it doesn’t appear it’s as large of a buy as the RGA’s.)

*** Team Newt’s mixed signals: The bad news for Newt Gingrich: It appears that his team isn’t on the same page about his presidential announcement. The good news: Joe Biden proved that you can begin your campaign with rocky start and still be the VP pick. Yesterday, news organizations -- though not NBC News, despite making every effort to confirm it (but was repeatedly told they would NOT confirm the "explore" aspect of the story -- reported that Gingrich would announce the formation of his exploratory committee on Thursday in a media avail with Georgia Gov. Nathan Deal (R). Gingrich adviser Joe Gaylord told the Des Moines Register, “You can’t say that this is tantamount to an announcement of candidacy. It is the announcement of an exploratory committee that says, ‘Is it really feasible for me to do this? And let me check this out in the next six or seven weeks, because I want to find out if it’s real before I do it.’” Then, last night, Gingrich’s top spokesman sent this clarification: “To be clear, while Speaker Gingrich is in Georgia on Thursday, he will NOT announce the formation of an exploratory committee.”

*** Exploratory phase vs. exploratory committee? So what the heck is going on? Politico has a smart answer: It comes down to semantics. Gingrich might tell reporters that he’s “intending” to announce his presidential bid or that he’s entering an exploratory “phase.” Politico writes, “Untangling the web of business and political groups Gingrich is involved in has proven complicated and he’s not in a position just yet to take a more formal step toward running.” Remember, the SECOND you file a statement of candidacy with the Federal Election Commission, you are legally a candidate for president. There is no such thing as an "exploratory committee." That said, you can "test the waters," but that's a longer explanation and one that DOES allow a presidential candidate to avoid being called a candidate and, say, violating a business contract. One thing is for sure, though: Newt will get a fair share of media attention on Thursday, no matter what he says.

*** Huck’s incorrect statement: All the attention Mike Huckabee received yesterday for stating -- incorrectly -- that Obama grew up in Kenya and is a reminder that presidential scrutiny is a different kind of scrutiny. (Remember when John McCain had to denounce folks for referring to Obama as “Hussein”?) That’s why conservative talk radio’s obsession with Kenya or Obama’s birth certificate is a potential tripwire for any Republican running for president. A Huckabee spokesperson later said that the former Arkansas governor misspoke and meant Indonesia, not Kenya. (But if Huck meant Indonesia, why did he talk about British colonialism in that radio interview? The Dutch were the colonialists in Indonesia.)

*** 2012 watch: Huckabee will be promoting his book in Tulsa and Edmond, OK, while Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour speaks before the U.S. Chamber of Commerce in DC.

*** Programming note: Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman John Kerry (D) and Sen. Joe Lieberman (I) will discuss the situation in Libya on “Andrea Mitchell Reports,” which begins at 1:00 pm ET.

Countdown to continuing resolution’s expiration: 2 days
Countdown to Iowa GOP straw poll: 163 days
Countdown to Election Day 2011: 251 days
Countdown to the Iowa caucuses: 341 days
* Note: When the IA caucuses take place depends on whether other states move up

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Per the New York Times, "The House on Tuesday approved a two-week budget measure that cuts $4 billion in federal spending. Senate Democrats said they would quickly pass the bill and send it to President Obama, averting any immediate threat of a government shutdown when current financing runs out Friday."

More: "The imminent approval of the bill represents a victory for House Republicans in the early stages of the budget battle since they have been able to force Senate Democrats to accept a measure with some cuts. Mr. Reid and other Democratic leaders initially said they wanted to maintain financing at current levels while a long-term deal was worked out."

“Senate Democrats conceded Tuesday that House Republicans won round one of the budget fight, but they are vowing a bigger battle later this month,” The Hill writes, adding, “Centrists who are facing tough reelections in Republican-leaning states want to support additional spending cuts for the rest of the fiscal year. Some are more willing to accept reductions to social programs than to defense and agriculture programs. Disappointed and boxed-in Democratic senators suggested Tuesday they would win — next time.”

Congressional watcher Norm Ornstein writes, “Perhaps two weeks of tough negotiations reaches a deal for the rest of the year. What are the odds of that? I would put them at 10 percent, being generous. As I wrote last week, the likelihood of a deal that would cut more than $15 billion to $20 billion from what will be a half year of the fiscal 2011 discretionary budget is itself exceedingly slim. The odds are minuscule that the tea-party-driven freshmen would accept the equivalent of 15 or 20 cents on the dollar from their pledge to cut $100 billion this year without first pushing for a confrontation. They did not come here to cave barely three months into their terms. And now, of course, they are being egged on by former Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.), who has written that the shutdowns in 1995 were great for Republicans and for the country, and nothing to fear compared with abandoning conservative principles… I fear, that we change in April from confrontation over $2 billion or $4 billion to confrontation over raising the debt limit, a much more deadly risk to the American and global economy.”

Just in time for tax day… Treasury says the U.S. government will hit the $14.3 trillion debt limit between April 15 and May 31, The Hill reports. 

“Despite constitutional concerns, the Senate passed a bill proposed by Sen. Barbara Boxer by unanimous consent Tuesday that would block the president and Members of Congress from getting a salary during a government shutdown,” Roll Call writes.

“Seven House Republicans stood alone in the fight to protect federal funding for Planned Parenthood. And now each of them faces attacks from the left and right, forced to walk a political tightrope because the new House GOP majority has, intentionally or not, diluted a message of fiscal responsibility with a debate over social issues,” Roll Call reports, adding, “There were two freshmen among the seven Republican dissidents: Reps. Robert Dold (Ill.) and Richard Hanna (N.Y.). The others were Reps. Judy Biggert (Ill.), Mary Bono Mack (Calif.), Charlie Dent (Pa.) and Rodney Frelinghuysen (N.J.). In his own category is Rep. Charles Bass (N.H.), who returned to Congress this year after a four-year hiatus.”

Really, Charlie Rangel? He said this before the Congressional Black Caucus Monday: “Collective bargaining is something that is so close to slavery in terms of abolishing it, that it is not an American concept to tell people that they cannot discuss their economic position.”

Former Sen. Larry Craig (R-ID) was spotted on the Hill yesterday. He’s in the process of registering as a lobbyist and plans to spend two weeks a month in DC. Roll Call’s headline: “Craig takes a lobbying stance.”

Speaking of lobbying, former Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT) was named chairman of the Motion Picture Association of America, a job The Hill calls “the most prestigious job on K Street.” 

“President Barack Obama will share a political stage at a Miami high school Friday with former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, giving the president’s education initiative a bi-partisan boost,” the Miami Herald writes. “The Republican governor, who last summer criticized Obama as ‘childish’ for continuing to blame the sluggish economy on former President George W. Bush, will join the president and Education Secretary Arne Duncan at Miami Central Senior High School where Obama is to deliver remarks on his push for improving U.S. schools.”

“Despite his spirited defense of his brother, Bush has lauded some of Obama’s education efforts and has said he believes education is one area where the political parties can find common ground.”

The Hill’s Youngman writes that the late start (by 2007 standards anyway) to the 2012 election “has enabled Obama to focus on being president.”

So much for closing Gitmo: “Attorney General Eric Holder left open the possibility Tuesday that the Guantánamo Bay terrorist prison camp might live on beyond President Obama’s first term. Asked in a congressional hearing whether the prison would be closed by November 2012, Holder said: ‘I don’t know,’” The Hill says. 

“Education and local government bear the brunt of Gov. Scott Walker's first budget, a reform-minded plan that cuts about $1 billion in state aid and prevents officials from raising taxes to make up the difference,” the Wisconsin State Journal reports.

The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel adds, “Gov. Scott Walker vowed Tuesday to close a $3.5 billion budget gap by remolding Wisconsin government at every level: slashing aid to public schools and local governments while setting up increases in private school aid; eliminating 1,200 state jobs; and placing the tightest limits on property taxes that the state has seen. To balance the budget without raising taxes or fees, the Republican governor is calling for sacrifices and changes affecting residents across the state, from students and participants in the SeniorCare prescription drug plan to poor families receiving health care or welfare from the state.”

“Wisconsin's union-busting Republican governor threatened Tuesday to lay off hundreds of public sector workers if the Democratic lawmakers who split the state don't return and vote on his proposed budget,” the New York Daily News reports.

“The clash between pro-union protesters and Republican leaders in Wisconsin could spark a resurgence of the American labor movement, the head of the nation's largest labor federation said Tuesday,” the AP says. “It's the kind of attention unions have been craving for years as leaders have tried without success to rekindle the vigor that organized labor enjoyed at its peak in the 1950s and 1960s. ‘We've been looking for a spark and the spark found us,’ said Thea Lee, deputy chief of staff and trade expert for the AFL-CIO. ‘This isn't a fight we looked for, but it is one we can turn to our advantage.’ Union members last year represented just 11.9 percent of the American work force, way down from about 25 percent in the 1980s and 35 percent in the middle of the last century.” 

“The well-funded anti-abortion-rights group Susan B. Anthony List is pushing Republican presidential candidates to declare whether taxpayer dollars should go to Planned Parenthood,” Roll Call reports. “‘We’re going to want presidential candidates to commit,’ SBA List President Marjorie Dannenfelser told Roll Call this week.”

BACHMANN: Rep. Michele Bachmann will headline the Republican State Committee of New Hampshire’s March 12 fundraiser in Nashua, the L.A. Times writes. 

BARBOUR: “Barbour, a possible Republican candidate for president, said in congressional testimony that while it was the right of Massachusetts to have its own healthcare plan — enacted by then-Gov. Mitt Romney (R) — such a plan would be detrimental to most states,” The Hill reports. “‘Massachusetts has a state health insurance program that they're happy with. And that's their right,’ Barbour said in a hearing on healthcare reform before the House Energy and Commerce Committee. ‘We don't want that. That's not good for us,” he added. 

The Jackson-Clarion Ledger writes that race won’t be a defining factor in Haley Barbour’s presidential prospects. “That issue is of far more interest to GOP primary opponents, the media and Democrats than it is to GOP primary voters. Why? Barbour doesn't have a record as a wild-eyed segregationist. He's preached ‘big tent’ Republicanism for decades.”

CHRISTIE: Chris Christie “said in an interview he believed he could win the Republican nomination but was not ready to be president,” Reuters reports. “‘I have people calling me and saying to me 'Let me explain to you how you could win.' And I'm like, 'You're barking up the wrong tree. I already know I could win.' That's not the issue,’ Christie said in an interview released on the National Review Online, when asked if he could be the Republican nominee.” 

GINGRICH: Roll Call says the former speaker’s expected run for president “was greeted by official Washington with a mixture of indifference, excitement and a general prediction that the former Speaker can’t win.”

Of the dueling messages out of the Gingrich camp over whether he’ll announce an exploratory committee in Atlanta on Thursday, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes, “Bottom line, reporters on Thursday will ask Gingrich whether he’s entering an exploratory phase of a presidential campaign. What he answers is his business.” 

GOP 12’s Heinze looks at how Gingrich might try to overcome some of his negatives.

HUCKABEE: “Less than a year before the South's first presidential primary, a new poll shows former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee leading a field of prospective Republican candidates among Southern voters,” the Miami Herald writes. “Huckabee easily led former House Speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia, 21.9 percent to 12.9 percent… in the poll of 11 Southern states by Winthrop University of Rock Hill, S.C.” 

PAWLENTY: Former Gov. Tim Pawlenty said he would make a decision about whether to run for president “some time in the next 45 days or less,” Minnesota Public Radio reports. 

Pawlenty donated nearly 50 boxes of documents, personal memos and CDs of radio interviews to the Minnesota Historical Society, the Minneapolis Star-Tribune reports. 

ROMNEY: “Former Governor Mitt Romney this afternoon announced a series of donations to congressional Republicans, which could prove influential in winning endorsements in his expected presidential bid,” the Boston Globe reports. “Romney, through his Free and Strong America PAC, said he was contributing a total of $83,500 to 38 US House members and two US Senators,” including freshmen and members from South Carolina and Florida – key primary states. 

SANTORUM: “Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum is the first likely presidential candidate to confirm an appearance at ‘Taxpayer Tea Party Rally’ on April 15 at the State House,” the Manchester Union-Leader writes. 

OKLAHOMA: “The [state] Senate has approved a measure that moves the date of Oklahoma's presidential primary election from February to March,” the AP writes. “The Senate on Tuesday unanimously approved the bill, which now heads to the House.” 

MINNESOTA: ““Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, a likely 2012 GOP presidential contender, says his home state's Republican Party should move back the date of its scheduled early presidential caucus to avoid a conflict with the New Hampshire primary and Iowa caucus,” the Manchester Union-Leader writes.  

MISSOURI: “Dueling bills in Missouri's legislature both aim to move the state's presidential primary in line with party rules, but one could lessen the state's role in the nominating process,” Politico writes. One “would move Missouri's primary to March 6, bringing it in accordance with party rules that prohibit any states other than Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada from voting before March. But a second bill, introduced this week by state Rep. Jay Barnes, would move Missouri's primary all the way back to June 12.” 

SOUTH CAROLINA: “South Carolina could be forced to advance its 2012 presidential primary in order to retain its first-in-the-South status if Florida leaders continue to defy the wishes of national Republicans,” the Spartanburg Herald-Journal writes. 

From NBC's Shawna Thomas
Capitol Hill's staffers, journalists and members of Congress were greeted by a retro sight on Monday morning.

Styrofoam. 

When Democrats held the majority, the various cafeterias throughout the Capitol complex served their wares in compostable food containers as a part of former Speaker Nancy Pelosi's initiative to "Green the Capitol."

But the GOP's reorganization of the House means that the more environmentally-friendly containers and utensils – which were biodegradable but flimsy - have been replaced with cheaper plastic and Styrofoam versions.

 "Styrofoam and Libya," one Hill staffer was overheard saying. "Are we back in the 80's?"

The change is part of the winding down of the "Green the Capitol" program, which - for now - still has a website that proudly boasts about the ecofriendly takeout boxes and cups as a major accomplishment.

But Republicans argue that the initiative did very little for the Capitol environment and cost taxpayers hundreds of thousands of dollars.

"According to information provided by the House IG and the CAO, the composting program has increased the House's overall operating costs by an estimated $475,000 annually,” said House Administration Committee Chairman Rep. Dan Lungren, R-Calif. “The program has also increased the House's energy consumption through the use of additional electricity for the pulping process and the increased hauling distance to the composting facility."

Pelosi took to the Twitterverse Monday night to express her disappointment in Styrofoam’s return. "#SoBeIt GOP brings back Styrofoam & ends composting--House will send 535 more tons to landfills #TalkAboutGovtWaste,” she wrote.  

During the recent debate over federal spending levels, Rep. Ed Whitfield, R-Ky., proposed an amendment requiring that lawmakers defund the full “Green the Capitol” program this year instead of waiting until the new fiscal year. 

In a statement on the House floor Whitfield said, "This amendment basically simply removes $1.5 million from the greening of the Capitol project. There was a total of about $7 million in this project. The project is basically over with, and there is approximately $1.5 million left. If we go on and eliminate the program now, that $1.5 million can be put directly to reducing the debt."  

It passed by voice vote in the middle of the night. 

Msnbc.com's Carrie Dann contributed.

In a step to avert a government shutdown before the current funding measure expires later this week, the House has passed a two-week spending bill would cut federal spending by $4 billion.

The vote was 335-91, with six Republicans opposing the GOP-authored measure. On the other side of the aisle, 104 Democrats voted for it, while 85 voted against the bill.

The Republican-backed stopgap bill was considered palatable by many Democrats because it drew on suggestions made by President Barack Obama in his budget for this year.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said Tuesday that the Senate will approve the bill within the next two days, giving lawmakers an additional two weeks to negotiate a longer-term measure to fund the government.

Some GOP House members opposed the bill because it did not include more controversial measures to defund Planned Parenthood and the implementation of the Obama-backed health care plan.

Conservative Rep. Steve King of Iowa tweeted shortly before the vote, “I will vote "NO" on 2week CR bc some of ObamaCare is funded by it & Pence amendment to block Planned Parenthood is not in.”

*** UPDATE *** Per NBC's Shawna Thomas, the six Republicans who voted against the spending bill were: Reps. Steve King of Iowa, Michele Bachmann of Minnesota, Ron Paul of Texas, Walter Jones of North Carolina, Louie Gohmert of Texas, and Justin Amash of Michigan.

*** UPDATED WITH HUCKPAC RESPONSE AFTER THE JUMP ***

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro and Sarah Blackwill
Mike Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor considering another run for president in 2012, inaccurately claimed on a conservative talk-radio show that President Obama grew up in Kenya.

"[O]ne thing that I do know is his having grown up in Kenya, his view of the Brits, for example, very different than the average American," Huckabee told host Steve Malzberg, the Washington Post reported. (Huckabee is on a multi-state book tour that is taking him to key presidential nominating states.)

Huckabee's claim that President Obama grew up in Kenya is false. President Obama was born in Hawaii and spent part of his youth in Indonesia, not Kenya. The president's biological father was Kenyan, and Obama barely knew him.

Huckabee has said he believes President Obama was born in the United States -- unlike the so-called "Birthers," who believe falsely that the president was born elsewhere. Huckabee reiterated his standard reasoning for that again today.

"The only reason I'm not as confident that there's something about the birth certificate ... is because I know the Clintons well, and believe me they had lots of investigators out on him," Huckabee said, "and I'm convinced if there was anything they could have found on that they would have found it, and I promise they would have used it."

But Huckabee didn't shoot down other conspiracy theories like the president not having health or college records, floated by Malzberg. Here's a partial transcript:

MALZBERG: Don't you think it's fair also to ask him - I know your stance on this - how come we don't have a health record? We don't have a college record? We don't have a birth certif- why Mr. Obama did you spend millions of dollars in courts all over this country to defend against having to present a birth certificate. It's one thing to say, "You've seen it, goodbye. But why go to court and send lawyers to defend against having to show it?" Don't you think we deserve to know more about this man?

HUCKABEE: I would love to know more - what I know is troubling enough. And one thing that I do know is his having grown up in Kenya - his view of the Brits, for example, very different from the average American. When he gave the bust back to [of Winston Churchill] -- of Winston Churchill, yeah. A great insult to the British, but if you think about it - his perspective growing up in Kenya with a Kenyan father and granfather, their view of the Mau Mau Revolution is very different from ours, because he probably grew up hearing that the British were a bunch of imperialists who persecuted his grandfather.

MALZBERG: He despises the West, he despises the Brits, and I think he could take it all out on Israel, and that's why he despises Israel. He's not too thrilled with our history either... Would you say to him or at least ask him in a debate: Why did you go to court and spend millions of dollars on lawyers to prevent from having to show your birth certificate? If you have one, and it's there, why not show it?

HUCKABEE: The only reason I'm not as confident that there's something about the birth certificate, Steve, is because I know the Clintons well, and believe me they had lots of investigators out on him, and I'm convinced if there was anything they could have found on that they would have found it and I promised they would have used it.

*** UPDATE *** HuckPAC Executive Director J. Hogan Gidley says Huckabee "simply misspoke":

“Governor Huckabee simply misspoke when he alluded to President Obama growing up in ‘Kenya.’  The Governor meant to say the President grew up in Indonesia. When the Governor mentioned he wanted to know more about the President, he wasn’t talking about the President’s place of birth - the Governor believes the President was born in Hawaii. The Governor would however like to know more about where President Obama’s liberal policies come from and what else the President plans to do to this country - as do most Americans.” 

From NBC's Catherine Chomiak
This past Friday, Utah Sen. Orrin Hatch (R) called health-care reform a “stupid, dumb-ass program.” 

Today, he continued to use strong language to express his opposition to the law -- but didn’t go as far -- when talking about the White House's offer to expedite a waiver process that would allow states to opt out of parts of the act.

"The waivers fail to give relief to state newly burdened with billions of dollars in new Medicaid spending mandates. I was on public television yesterday, right after [HHS] Secretary Sebelius who was saying this change from 2017 to 2014 is going to give you all kinds of flexibility. I'll tell you that's BULL! There's no question about it," he said, avoiding profanity at the Federation of American Hospitals Conference this morning in Washington, D.C. 

"As for the administrations claim that it has provided a needed flexibility to the states," Hatch continued, "I believe the technical legal term is bologna."

House Majority Leader Eric Cantor and Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour also addressed the group of medical administrators.

On the budget, Hatch and Cantor warned of tough choices as they attempt to “tighten the belt” of the government. And they expressed a willingness to take on entitlement reform -- under the right circumstances.

“We have serious problems ahead of us, and they require serious answers and some very tough conversations with the American people. We can’t have everything and choices need to be made. It’s just that simple,” Hatch said.

“What we need to do is to focus on jobs and the economy and make sure that we are dealing with our fiscal situation because many who we rely upon to drive this economy are waiting for the government to do what they are doing which is to tighten the belt and to find a way to do more with less,” Cantor added.

Echoing Cantor, Barbour emphasized the need for concentration on jobs and the economy.  “Less spending clearly is our goal and our mandate, but it’s a means to an end. We want a bigger more vibrant economy that employs more people."

Cantor and Hatch say entitlement reform is necessary in order to truly reduce the government’s debt. “The budget, we have said, will contain a prescription or a vision as to how we expect to deal with the future of entitlement programs in this country,” Cantor promised.

While the continuing resolution may have a plan for entitlement programs, Hatch signals that it will take both chambers of Congress and the White House to get anywhere. 

“We’re not going to make any headway on entitlement spending without presidential leadership. We all know that. Members of Congress know that if they do something about Social Security, Medicaid, Medicare, alone the president can demagogue that issue and use it for political purposes. No, we have to work together in these areas,” he explained.

From NBC's Ken Strickland
At a news conference today, Majority Leader Harry Reid said he expects the Senate to pass the House GOP's short-term spending bill within the next 48 hours, thereby averting a government shutdown.

The House is expected to pass the bill later today. It funds government operations for two weeks, containing $4-billion in spending cuts.

Prior to Reid's statement, Republican Leader Mitch McConell said he was "confident" the House bill would pass when it reached the Senate.

Reid said he and Senate Democrats wanted a bill longer than two weeks, allowing more time to negotiate a long term spending bill.  But Republicans rejected his proposals, Reid said.

Yesterday, we wrote about an estimate by Moody's economist Mark Zandi, who projected that House Republicans’ proposed spending cuts could cost the American economy 700,000 jobs through 2012.

Today, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said that projection is overstated.

Testifying before the Senate Banking and Urban Affairs Committee Tuesday, Bernanke said that his analysis “doesn't give a number that high” for job losses resulting from the GOP plan to eliminate $61 billion in government spending this year, adding that the cuts would only reduce growth "on the margin."

Bernanke estimated the cuts would result in the reduction of “several tenths [of a percent] on GDP"  – far less than the two percent projected in a recent report by Goldman Sachs.

A reduction in federal spending of “$60 billion to $100 billion is not sufficient to get to that level,” Bernanke said. “But it would, of course, have the effect of reducing growth on the margin, certainly.”

Democrats have been touting the Goldman Sachs and Zandi analyses, saying that the numbers prove that the GOP plan would hobble the economic recovery. Republicans countered yesterday by pointing out Zandi’s support for the stimulus plan passed by Democrats in the early days of the Obama presidency.

House Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy's office quickly circulated Bernanke's remarks to reporters Tuesday, saying that the Fed chair's comments "echoed what other economic experts have been saying for days."

"Senate Democrats should find new talking points if they're going to continue to stand in the way of House Republican efforts to eliminate barriers to job creation through much needed spending reductions," the written statement read.

*** UPDATE *** In the hearing, Sen. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., asked Bernanke whether or not he agreed with Zandi's statement that “cuts, significant cuts, could cause job loss.”

"The cuts would presumably lower overall demand in the economy and would have some effect on growth and employment," Bernanke responded. "Yes."

NBC's Luke Russert contributed.

NBC's Kelly O'Donnell has the details (after the jump) on the coming Government Accountability Office report, previewed in First Thoughts, that will be out later today outlining government waste due to duplication. The report could provide a road map for other cuts to make as the White House pushes for a 30-day continuing resolution to avoid a government shutdown. (The two-week CR would end just as the president is scheduled to make a trip to South America.) Here's some of what was in Thoughts:

NBC’s Ken Strickland reports that as lawmakers scour the administrative landscape looking to cut billions in spending, a nonpartisan report commissioned by Congress will be released today showing that billions worth of savings could be achieved by eliminating duplicative and overlapping government programs. Sen. Tom Coburn (R) told a few reporters yesterday that the report "makes us all look like jackasses." The Oklahoma senator, Strick adds, authored the legislation requiring to the Government Accountability Office to "identify federal programs, agencies, offices, and initiatives with duplicative goals and activities, to estimate the cost of such duplication, and to make recommendations to Congress for consolidation and elimination of such duplication."

Oklahoma Republican Sen. Tom Coburn estimates the cost is at least $100 billion, but there is no official amount identified.

"Considering the amount of program dollars involved in the issues we have identified, even limited adjustments could result in significant savings," the GAO concluded.

Aides provided a preview of key findings and examples of duplication, mismanagement and waste:

·    Dangerous lack of coordination regarding defenses against biological terror threats.  At least five departments, eight agencies and more than two dozen presidential appointees oversee $6.48 billion related to bioterrorism.  GAO writes: "There is no national plan to coordinate federal, state, and local efforts following a bioterror attack, and the United States lacks the technical and operational capabilities required for an adequate response."

·    $1 trillion for special tax benefits, many of which are redundant.   GAO writes: "For fiscal year 2009, the U.S. Department of the Treasury listed a total of 173 tax expenditures, some of which were the same magnitude or larger than related federal spending for some mission areas."

·    Financial literacy education offered by a government with a $14 trillion debt.  Twenty agencies operate 56 programs dedicated to financial literacy but GAO and agencies can't estimate what they cost.  

·    Economic development programs with little evidence of economic development.  The federal government runs 80 economic development programs across 4 agencies at a cost of $6.5 billion. 

·    Highways programs have not been rebooted since 1956.  The Department of Transportation (DOT) spends $58 billion on 100 separate programs run by five DOT agencies with 6,000 employees.  GAO says the programs have "not evolved to reflect current priorities in transportation planning."

·    Special treatment for catfish.  GAO found that the Farm Bill assigned the United States Department of Agriculture responsibility for monitoring catfish, thus splitting seafood oversight between USDA and FDA.  Fifteen federal agencies administer more than 30 food related laws.

·    Senseless duplication among military branches.  GAO found that the military wastes untold billions on duplication and overlap.  For instance, Army and Air Force transportable base equipment, which includes mobile housing and dining facilities, could be used by both service, but are not.

Democrats and Republicans -- surprisingly -- are seeking compromise and common ground… Except in Wisconsin, where Gov. Walker unveils his budget today… Obama White House wants to extend the temporary stopgap spending bill from two weeks to a month… What happened to Orrin Hatch?... GAO on duplication and overlap… And 2012 calendar chaos (some advice to politicos: don’t make New Year’s plans, unless they’re in Des Moines).

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** Common ground… : You wouldn’t mistake it for a chorus of kumbaya, but Democrats and Republicans recently have been seeking "common ground" (remember, don't say "compromise"), or are at least doing their best to make it look that way. As we noted yesterday, House Republicans and Senate Democrats seem likely to cut a deal averting a government shutdown -- for a couple of weeks, that is. And yesterday, President Obama offered a concession to Republicans that would allow states to apply for a waiver, beginning in 2014, to opt out of key provisions of the health-care law (like the mandate and the exchanges) if the states could still meet the law’s goals. After two-plus years of nearly all-out partisan war, why are Democrats and Republicans hugging it out, no matter how sincere it is? Because that’s what the public seems to want. According to a survey by NBC/WSJ co-pollsters Peter Hart (D) and Bill McInturff (R), conducted for the Rockefeller Foundation, 66% say they prefer their elected leaders in Washington to compromise or seek common ground, including 65% of independents and 58% of Republicans (but just 46% of Tea Party supporters). Let's repeat one result again: 65% of independents…

*** … Except in Wisconsin: But that common ground has been elusive in Wisconsin, where Gov. Scott Walker (R) won’t budge on his effort to strip collective bargaining rights for public employees. And it’s perhaps the reason why Walker is struggling to get his budget deal done. Indeed, the Republican Governors Association is airing a new TV ad to defend Walker, becoming the first national party/committee organization to weigh in on the conflict with paid advertising. (Democrats are pointing out that it’s striking the RGA is dropping significant money “to prop up an incumbent three and half years away from re-election.”) And a brand-new New York Times/CBS poll shows that Walker may have picked the wrong fight on collective bargaining. “Americans oppose weakening the bargaining rights of public employee unions by a margin of nearly two to one: 60% to 33%.” As we’ve written before, Walker still is poised to win the legislative fight -- the state Senate Democrats have to come home at some point -- but he isn’t winning the political fight. Walker takes center stage in Wisconsin today when he unveils his budget. By the way, keep an eye on potential Dem state senate defectors, not just potential GOP state senate defectors. We’re getting to a point in this standoff where it may be open season on BOTH sides of the aisle. 

*** From two weeks to a full month: Back to Washington, Politico is reporting -- and NBC has confirmed -- that the White House is seeking to extend the temporary CR from two weeks to a full month. “Showing the first signs of coming off the sideline, the White House made a late bid Monday to extend the life of a stopgap government funding bill to a full month and thereby allow more time for the administration to become engaged in the House-Senate talks. The House is slated to vote Tuesday on a two week extension of the current continuing resolution due to expire this Friday, Mar. 4. The administration would instead like that to run a full 30 days, and this triggered a meeting Monday evening between Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) in the senator’s offices.” There are a couple of roadmaps to make this happen, one is the president's 2012 budget (more cuts could be used); the other is a new GAO report about redundant regulations (see below).

*** What happened to Hatch? Speaking of refusing to compromise or find common ground, Utah Sen. Orrin Hatch (R) seems to be taking a page from the 2009-2010 McCain playbook -- and beyond. Here was Hatch yesterday on the health-care law: “It’s good to allow them to work out their own problems rather than a one-size-fits-all federal government, stupid, dumb-ass program… It really is an awful piece of crap.” It was surprising that Hatch -- a senator who has been a willing participant in his share of bipartisan partnerships -- would publicly use such salty language. Up for re-election next year, Hatch is doing everything possible in his effort to avoid the fate that took down Bob Bennett in 2010. In what is even more striking than what we saw with McCain, Hatch, at least rhetorically, already hardly resembles the senator that many of us have covered over the last two decades.

*** Duplication and overlap: And Hatch isn’t the only GOP senator using some salty language. NBC’s Ken Strickland reports that as lawmakers scour the administrative landscape looking to cut billions in spending, a nonpartisan report commissioned by Congress will be released today showing that billions worth of savings could be achieved by eliminating duplicative and overlapping government programs. Sen. Tom Coburn (R) told a few reporters yesterday that the report "makes us all look like jackasses." The Oklahoma senator, Strick adds, authored the legislation requiring to the Government Accountability Office to "identify federal programs, agencies, offices, and initiatives with duplicative goals and activities, to estimate the cost of such duplication, and to make recommendations to Congress for consolidation and elimination of such duplication."

*** Calendar chaos: Don't miss this Politico Ben Smith piece on how Minnesota is the latest state that could disrupt the entire 2012 presidential calendar. Florida is ALSO threatening leapfrogging. and has a primary on the books for January. This is all a reminder that Reince Priebus has NO control over the calendar. Candidates don't either. The man who does is New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardener, because nobody protects the IA/NH turf more aggressively than he does. He'll sit back, wait for FL and MN and any other state to make its move, and he'll leapfrog, triggering Iowa's move before. And all of us should once again not make big New Year’s Eve plans, except if you already are living in Des Moines.

Countdown to continuing resolution’s expiration: 3 days
Countdown to Iowa GOP straw poll: 164 days
Countdown to Election Day 2011: 252 days
Countdown to the Iowa caucuses: 342 days
* Note: When the IA caucuses take place depends on whether other states move up

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“Gov. Scott Walker will reveal on Tuesday the full cuts in state programs such as health care for the poor and aid to local governments needed to balance the state's more than $3 billion budget deficit over the next two years,” the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel writes. “At the same time, the state will hit a deadline for doing a refinancing deal that the Republican governor said is key to solving a more immediate budget problem and preventing the layoffs of up to 1,500 state workers. On Monday, Senate Democrats who have blocked that deal by holing up in Illinois put forward their own plan that they said could prevent the layoffs even if the refinancing falls through.”

More: “Walker has drawn considerable controversy in recent weeks for a budget-repair bill that would repeal most union bargaining rights for public workers. But his 2011-'13 budget plan will have tough decisions that will affect even more people in the state - including what he says will be more than $1 billion in cuts to state aid to school districts and local governments. The budget repair ‘is the first shoe to drop, but it's the second shoe that's going to be the much bigger shoe,’ said Todd Berry, president of the Wisconsin Taxpayers Alliance.”

Per the latest New York Times/CBS poll, “As labor battles erupt in state capitals around the nation, a majority of Americans say they oppose efforts to weaken the collective bargaining rights of public employee unions and are also against cutting the pay or benefits of public workers to reduce state budget deficits.”

And a Pew poll finds that by a 42%-31% margin, Americans say they side with Wisconsin’s public employee unions over Republican Gov. Scott Walker. They are split, however, on who would be more to blame if the federal government shutdown – 36% say they would blame Republicans, 35% say Democrats, with 17% saying both.

The AP: “The state’s largest public employee union filed a complaint yesterday alleging Walker has engaged in unfair labor practices by refusing to negotiate.”

“President Obama sought to defuse criticism of the new health-care overhaul Monday by saying he is willing to give states an earlier opportunity to opt out of certain key requirements - but only if they can find their own ways to accomplish the law's goals,” the Washington Post says.

The New York Times: “The announcement is the first time Mr. Obama has called for altering a central component of his signature health care law, although he has backed removing a specific tax provision that both parties regard as onerous on business. But the prospects for the proposal appear dim. Congress would have to approve the change through legislation, and House Republican leaders said Monday that they were committed to repealing the law, not amending it. Even if the change were approved, it could be difficult for states to meet the federal requirements for the waivers.”

The Boston Globe said the offer was Obama “displaying his willingness to compromise on one of the most controversial aspects of the overhaul.”

On spending cuts, AP writes, “Siding with congressional Republicans, the White House voiced general approval yesterday for a short-term bill that makes immediate cuts in federal spending while preventing a threatened government shutdown. ‘We’re pleased that there seems to be some progress and we think we’re moving in the right direction,’ press secretary Jay Carney said of a bill that Republicans intend to pass in the House today.”

Politico: “Showing the first signs of coming off the sideline, the White House made a late bid Monday to extend the life of a stopgap government funding bill to a full month and thereby allow more time for the administration to become engaged in the House-Senate talks. The House is slated to vote Tuesday on a two week extension of the current continuing resolution due to expire this Friday, Mar. 4. The administration would instead like that to run a full 30 days, and this triggered a meeting Monday evening between Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) in the senator’s offices.”

“Senate Democrats appear poised to swallow the House GOP’s $4 billion spending cut package to avert a government shutdown this week but are trying to figure out how to avoid getting squeezed again in two weeks,” Roll Call writes.

Democrats are highlighting this Wall Street Journal story. “Federal spending cuts passed recently by the House would slash grants for antiterrorism work at the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey by two-thirds, or some $22 million. A preliminary breakdown of the budget bill passed by the House earlier this month would lower the Port Authority's share to $11.2 million from $33.8 million, part of an overall move to shrink the port security grant program to $95.5 million from $288 million.”

Not that a minority leader can do much of anything in the House, but “House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) is showing no enthusiasm for the new proposal from Republicans to avoid a government shutdown, putting her at odds with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.). … ‘Republicans want to cut an additional $4 billion, which includes stripping support for some pressing educational challenges without redirecting these critical resources to meet the educational needs of our children,’ Pelosi said in a statement. ‘This is not a good place to start.’”

Rep. Rush Holt (D-NJ), who is a nuclear physicist and five-time Jeopardy champion, beat Jeopardy computer “Watson” in a round on Capitol Hill organized by IBM, which makes the computer. “At the end of his round, Holt (right) had 8,600 points to Watson's 6,200. Holt's fellow Rep. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) (left) also competed in the round and scored 1,000 points,” The Hill reports, adding, “Cassidy and Holt were among the five members of Congress taking part in Monday's bipartisan ‘Watson vs. Members’ tournament. They were joined by Reps. Jim Himes (D-Conn.), Jared Polis (D-Colo.) and Nan Hayworth (R-N.Y.). Holt may be the only member to have beaten Watson, but Himes, a former Rhodes Scholar, became the crowd favorite when he bet all his points on a double jeopardy question about a chicken recipe, and won (the answer was ‘coq au vin’). Himes was the only lawmaker to play in two rounds, besting Polis and Hayworth, but not Watson.”

DANIELS: On NPR yesterday, Mitch Daniels discussed his role as OMB director under George W. Bush, saying that the budget surplus “was going away and it wouldn’t have mattered who was president, let alone in the supporting role of budget director.” But, the Washington Post asserts, Daniels “conveniently airbrushes out of the picture the Republican president -- George H.W. Bush -- who did the most to reduce the budget deficit… Moreover, Daniels's assertion that the surplus was bound to disappear in any case is too cute by half. The projected surplus was the main reason why George W. Bush said - repeatedly - that the nation could afford a $1.6 trillion tax cut. Certainly, when Daniels was budget director, he did not suggest that the surplus was ‘going away.’” 
 
GINGRICH: The Hill writes, “Newt Gingrich’s simultaneous courtship of the base of the Republican Party and Latino voters could pose major problems for his likely bid for the White House… The former House Speaker has set up a bilingual news and opinion website directed at Latinos and has staked out a nuanced position on immigration reform that some critics have labeled amnesty. At the same time, Gingrich has tried to woo conservative activists, coming out against the construction of a mosque near the Ground Zero site in lower Manhattan and calling for the elimination of the Environmental Protection Agency. The problem, according to some observers, is that Gingrich’s stance on immigration doesn’t lend itself to an easy explanation for a conservative talk-radio audience.”

He’ll speak in Iowa March 7.

HUCKABEE: “In heavily Democratic Dubuque (IA), former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee brought out many folks who want to see him in the White House,” the Dubuque Telegraph Herald wrote of his appearance yesterday. “‘I'm telling (supporters who ask) that I'm seriously considering running; I'm watching the response to my book, which lays it all out so people will know what I stand for,’ said Huckabee.” 
 
Yesterday afternoon in Cedar Rapids, Huckabee told reporters that he’ll run a “smarter” campaign in 2012 if he launches a bid, Radio Iowa writes. “’ I’m trying to be smarter and not be stupid enough to go out there and try to sustain a campaign for an unnecessarily long period of time,’” Huckabee said.

“At the close of a six-city book tour through the leadoff presidential caucus state, Huckabee said Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, should discuss the problems with the bill he signed in 2006 requiring all state residents to obtain health insurance,” the Des Moines Register writes. “‘States try bold things. If they don’t work, the whole country hasn’t suffered,’ Huckabee said. ‘What I don’t understand is why Obama would take a plan that didn’t work out like it’s supposed to and try to impose it on the rest of the 50 states.’” 
 
“Mike Huckabee is set to deliver the keynote speech at the National Rifle Association's Celebration of American Values Freedom Experience, April 30, in Pittsburgh, PA,” GOP12’s Heinze reports.

PALIN: Palin-friendly talk-show host Tammy Bruce is attacking Chris Christie for saying the former Alaska governor needs more unscripted moments to be taken seriously. She derided Christie in a Tweet as “Mr. Smug” and took a shot at him for his weight: “Mr. Smug, whose act involves screaming at people, says Palin needs more ‘unscripted moments.’ Weird how Christie says absolutely *nothing* about the current president who can't open his piehole w/o a teleprompter, but goes after Palin. And I would guess if Palin ever solicited advice from Christie it would be limited to whether Chunky Monkey is better than Cherry Garcia. @GovChristie is bad on immigration, 2nd amendment, & supports cap & tax. And he has the gall to even *talk* about Palin?”

PAWLENTY: Although the former governor now says he would support Republicans considering a government shutdown, the Minnesota Independent points out that he was singing a different tune in 2005, when, the AP reports, he said: “‘Minnesotans need to hear about and understand the real human impacts if state government shuts down. State parks will close, rest areas will be boarded up, and new drivers licenses won’t be issued. More than 15,000 state employees — hardworking, dedicated people — will essentially be locked out of their jobs…  Anyone who considers the negative impacts of a shutdown should see it as a reason to seriously get back to the negotiating table.’”

Tea-Paw, the sequel. After speaking before Tea Party Patriots in Phoenix over the weekend, Pawlenty is up with a video paying homage to the Tea Party.

Stu Rothenberg writes in Roll Call, “In a Republican presidential race that could include the likes of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, former Speaker Newt Gingrich (Ga.) and Mississippi Gov. (and former Republican National Committee Chairman) Haley Barbour, Tim Pawlenty’s most troublesome potential opponent could well be a fellow Minnesotan, Rep. Michele Bachmann… Although the two Minnesota Republicans don’t necessarily appeal to the same people, Bachmann’s presence in the Republican contest would undoubtedly draw some Minnesota money and support that would otherwise go to Pawlenty, even if only because he was the ‘local’ guy in the race. After all, Bachmann represents the most Republican district in the Gopher State.”

ROMNEY: During a meeting with governors at the White House, President Obama took a not-so-veiled swipe at the health care plan passed by Mitt Romney when he was governor of Massachusetts. “‘I agree with Mitt Romney, who recently said he is proud of what he accomplished on health care,’ Obama said, in a soundbite likely to be recycled over and over by the Republican's rivals for the 2012 nomination,” AFP writes.

“Mitt Romney is on top in Michigan, according to a new poll,” Politico writes. “A survey by the Lansing-based polling firm EPIC/MRA found President Barack Obama trailing the former Massachusetts governor in a hypothetical matchup by 5 points, 41 to 46 percent.

MASSACHUSETTS: Gov. Deval Patrick, “breaching all manner of political protocol,” rattled off the names of the four potential Senate candidates who’ve already chatted with him: “City Year co-founder Alan Khazei, who made a failed attempt for the Democratic nomination in last year's Senate special election; Newton Mayor Setti Warren, little more than a year in office; veteran Salem Mayor Kim Driscoll; and Democratic activist Robert Massie, a 1994 candidate for lieutenant governor. Patrick also said Robert Pozen, a former executive at Fidelity Investments and MFS Investment Management, had reached out to him but they had failed to connect.”

MINNESOTA: If the Minnesota Democratic and Republican parties don’t jointly agree today to move the state’s caucuses back, the caucus will be held Feb.  7 – one day after Iowa, Politico reports. “The date can only be changed with the consent of both political parties. The parties must, according to the statute, agree to change the date "no later than March 1 of each odd-numbered year" -- that is, tomorrow. But the Minnesota Republican Party has refused to budge, arguing that its caucus is merely a non-binding affair held on the same date as a non-binding presidential straw poll.”

NEBRASKA: “Sen. Ben Nelson (D-Neb.), chairman of the Senate Appropriations Legislative Branch subcommittee, announced Monday that he would seek the 5 percent cut for the remainder of the year,” The Hill reports, adding, “Because Washington surely needs more fiscal accountability these days, we should adapt Harry Truman’s well-known phrase and say, ‘The Buck Shrinks Here,’ ” he said. Nelson is up for reelection in 2012.

VIRGINIA: With Tim Kaine set to decide soon whether or not he'll run for Jim Webb's Senate seat, the National Republican Senatorial Committee has a new Web ad hitting Kaine.

A Democratic Party official emails First Read, "That's an awful lot of trouble for someone not even in the race. I know they're going to have a bloody primary with deeply flawed candidates, but you'd think they'd be better at hiding how worried they are."