LE MARS, Iowa -- The Newt Gingrich campaign claims to be in good financial health as 2011 draws to a close, raising an estimated $9 million between October and December.

A spokesman for the former House speaker said the campaign's finances had recovered somewhat from their summer doldrums, when Gingrich reported incurring about $1 million in debt.

“The campaign has money,” Gingrich Spokesman R.C. Hammond told the press bus trailing Gingrich’s on his second day of his Iowa "Jobs & Growth Bus Tour."

“The campaign, for the fourth quarter, has raised a similar amount of money to what John McCain raised in 2007 at the same point…it’s about $9 million dollars,” Hammond told reporters, adding that their average campaign donation is between $75 and $100.

Hammond stopped both Gingrich's bus and the press bus on the side of the highway to board the press bus to inform reporters about their fundraising prowess. Up until this point, the Gingrich campaign had been rather hushed on how much money they had raised, saying it was their “strategy.” 

It provides some positive news for Gingrich on the same day a CNN/TIME poll was published, showing his standing sliding to fourth place among likely Iowa caucus-goers.

"Today’s CNN poll,” the Gingrich spokesman said, “shows Mitt Romney has a ceiling and he spent $13 million since ’07 in the state of Iowa, and he can't break it."

Hammond decided to release these numbers to the press tonight, as Gingrich was on a tele-town hall with Iowans, because of an “erroneous report” misstating the campaign’s fundraising.

The influx in donations for Gingrich corresponds with his surge in the polls in late November and early December; Hammond said funds started to pick up after the FOX debate in Ames, Iowa. He had raised a mere $800,000 for the third quarter (July through September).

On Oct. 25, Gingrich told reporters in New Hampshire that his campaign had already raised more money in October than they did in all of the third quarter. 

Gingrich’s spokesman also said “the campaign has paid off some of the debt obligations occurred over the summer” and that they will have a positive balance of cash on hand when the quarter ends on Dec. 31. He did note, though, “Any good campaign three days before the Iowa caucus won’t have a lot” of cash on hand.

The campaign is only spending $500,000 on television ads in Iowa this week leading up to the caucus. While that is more than it has spent in previous weeks, it is significantly less than what Gingrich’s GOP rivals are spending.

MANCHESTER, NH -- Former two-term New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson officially dropped out of the Republican race for the White House today to run for the Libertarian Party's nomination.

Johnson said he's "deeply disappointed" by the GOP in a process he deemed "not fair." His campaign first announced the shift last week.

"Frankly, I have been deeply disappointed by the treatment I received in the Republican nomination process," Johnson said at his announcement in Sante Fe. "The process was not fair and open."

Johnson is the first major candidate to run as a third-party candidate. His jump comes after serving as New Mexico governor as a Republican from 1995 to 2003 and months of campaigning in New Hampshire, where he was unable to rise above low single digits in state-wide polls. Johnson was famous for criss-crossing the state on his bicycle and hosting a town hall meeting in Concord -- to which no one showed up.

Nationally, Johnson has been known for supporting the legalization of marijuana. Unlike most of his GOP counterparts, he also supports gay marriage and abortion rights.

As a libertarian-minded candidate, Johnson often had a difficult time escaping the shadow of the more popular Texas Rep. Ron Paul, who champions similar positions as Johnson. Paul has told NBC News he has no intentions of running as a third-party candidate, but did not completely rule it out if he is unsuccessful in his Republican bid.

Johnson said Paul's potential failure to win the GOP nomination was part of his own calculus to run as a Libertarian.

"While Ron Paul is a good man and a libertarian who I proudly endorsed in 2008, there is no guarantee he will be the Republican nominee," Johnson said.

Johnson said moving to the Libertarian Party was "both a difficult decision -- and an easy one."

"I have a lot of Republican history and a lot of Republican supporters. But in the final analysis ... I am a Libertarian -- that is someone who is fiscally very conservative but holds freedom-based positions on the issues that govern our personal behavior," he explained.

If Johnson wins the Libertarian Party's nomination, his name would appear on the general election ballot in all 50 states.

DUBUQUE, Iowa -- With a new poll showing a Rick Santorum surge just six days before the Iowa caucuses, the presidential hopeful continued to stress his conservative credentials and take jabs at nearly all his Republican rivals while campaigning through eastern Iowa today.

A CNN/Time Poll released today shows the time Santorum has spent campaigning in Iowa may be starting to pay off. The former Pennsylvania senator gets the support of 16% of likely Iowa caucus-goers, according to the survey. That's an 11-point increase from earlier this month, and it puts him in third place with a comfortable lead over Texas Gov. Rick Perry and Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann -- the two candidates Santorum said he is most directly competing with for the support of Iowa's most socially conservative caucus goers.

"We have the highest favorable ratings in the state right now. They like the positions I take on the issues," Santorum told reporters before the poll had been released. "They've seen the negative attacks on me, but they're not anywhere near what the other candidates have to deal with and their problems in their past. And that's a plus for us."

A renewed interest in Santorum has been visible on the campaign trail as well. He has consistently drawn crowds between 70 to 100 voters this week. It's a far cry from the numbers Mitt Romney and Ron Paul have been getting (who are No. 1 and No. 2, respectively, in the poll). But it's a huge boost from the number of attendees he's gotten as recently as earlier this month.

Santorum's closing argument to caucus goers is simple: "Don't settle."

"Ladies and gentleman, you have a chance to send a message to the man in New York and Washington," he told a crowd of supporters. "You folks teach them a lesson...as to what Iowans, conservatives want as the candidate coming out of this state. You do that, you will change the dynamic of this race, and you'll have the opportunity to say we didn't settle."

And as other candidates are using the home stretch to rifle off their conservative credentials, Santorum is reminding Iowans of his. Endorsements from strong conservative leaders like Bob Vander Plaats, the head of The Family Leader, have helped him make his case. Though he spent today in eastern Iowa, a mostly Democratic area of the state, his campaign has plans to head to the very Republican western part of the state late in the week -- a move likely aimed to strengthen his already deep support in the area.

Santorum says he's confident voters who are looking for a strong conservative will turn to him.

"Some of the presidential candidates on the Republican side say this; they say, 'I believe that life begins at conception.' Ladies and gentleman, that is a concession.  That is a concession to the left; that is a concession to President Obama," Santorum said. Life beginning at conception is not a belief; it is a fact." 

"And so when we say, 'Well, I believe it,' then people think, 'Well, it's a particle of faith."

And though he does not have the money to run negative ads, the previously overlooked candidate has given a tongue-lashing to nearly every candidate, especially Paul, whose foreign policy he's called "incomprehensible."

He also called Gingrich "an inventor" who should not be in charge of the country. And he blasted Romney for running as a "liberal Republican" when challenging Sen. Ted Kennedy in Massachusetts.

The first candidate to visit all of the Hawkeye State's 99 counties said it is his long courtship with voters that is paying off. Despite not having as much as a campaign bus, he will continue to barnstorm through the state up until the caucus.

"We have a lot of work to do," Santorum said. "A lot of work."

MASON CITY, Iowa -- Iowa GOP Chairman Matt Strawn today resigned from his position with Strong America Now after the founder’s Super PAC sent campaign mailers to Iowans praising Newt Gingrich and attacking Mitt Romney.

Strawn announced he resigned immediately from any further involvement with Strong America Now after the Strong America Now Super PAC -- both founded by Michael George -- released two separate direct mail pieces calling Romney “the second-most dangerous man in America” and backing Gingrich for president, as NBC News reported late Tuesday.

The Super PAC appears to be tied to the prominent 501(c)(4) non-profit organization focused on eliminating the national debt, Strong America Now. The same address that is listed as paying for the Super PAC mailers is listed on Strong America Now’s website –- an address in Lewisville, TX.

Strawn has been receiving a paycheck from the 501(c)(4) since last February, when he agreed to serve as an Iowa state co-chair for the group. He even spoke on Strong America Now’s behalf at various events throughout the state this year.

As chairman of the Iowa Republican Party, Strawn is expected to remain neutral in the upcoming first-in-the-nation caucuses, which the Iowa GOP runs.

In his letter informing George of his resignation -- reported exclusively by The Iowa Republican this morning -- Strawn said he wanted to “remove any appearance of conflict with my neutrality and impartiality with the Republican presidential nomination contest.”

Despite legal separations between the Super PAC and the non-profit organization, Strawn left, claiming he was not made aware the group was going to move towards aliening itself with one candidate and attacking another.

“While the Strong America Now super PAC may be a separate legal entity, the reality is that the assurances I was once given are no longer true regarding candidate advocacy,” he said in the letter.

Even the 501(c)(4) -- which hasn’t publically endorsed a candidate -- has sent mailers to Iowans in recent weeks rating the candidates. The Strong America Now voter guide for Iowans last week gave Gingrich, Rick Santorum, and Rick Perry all grades of “A,” while Romney got a “D” from the organization.

Many Iowa Republicans say it was a smart move for Chairman Strawn to finally cut ties with both of George’s organizations.

“It's extremely important for any party official to stay neutral from supporting or endorsing any candidate, Super PAC or advocacy group as it can appear to taint the process,” longtime Iowan Republican Becky Beach told NBC News. “It's just unfair to the other hard working folks in the race.” 

"He had to walk a fine line," Dave Funk, who worked with Strawn at Strong America Now as a surrogate speaker, added about Strawn working at the organization.

"If the subject of the Super PAC came up, or any other state party issues, we removed ourselves from the conversation. There is no question Matt did the right thing and conducted himself appropriately," he said.

CLINTON, Iowa -- Mitt Romney didn't need a new poll today to demonstrate that his prospects were looking up in Iowa -- though he got one anyway.

Instead, all he needed to do was take a look at the crowds overflowing out the doors of his events in Eastern Iowa.

"The response I'm getting is really quite heartening, and I can't tell you what's going to happen," Romney told reporters this afternoon. "I can't join the expectations game, but I can tell you that I feel pretty good about the support I'm getting here in Iowa and new Hampshire for that matter. And it looks like we're going to be off to a good start."

Moments after Romney spoke, the political world got confirmation of his good feeling, when CNN/Time released new poll results of likely Iowa caucus-goers, showing Romney in first place at 25% and Ron Paul next at 22%.

While that difference remains within the poll's margin of error, and the count includes only registered Republicans -- a fact which may leave out many Paul supporters -- it is likely still a welcome development for the Romney campaign, as it looks to lock down support in early primary states and avoid a lengthy and potentially damaging nomination fight.

Romney, who has spent just 11 days campaigning in Iowa this election cycle, brought an armada of supporters with him to the Hawkeye state this week. As the candidate and his wife travel the eastern part of the state, top Romney surrogates from neighboring states are also campaigning on his behalf here -- with former Sens. Jim Talent (R-MO) and Norm Coleman (R-MN) and current Sen. John Thune (R-SD) making joint stops today. On Friday, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie will also stump for Romney.

Illinois Congressman Aaron Schock, whose district borders Iowa, also campaigned for Romney today, introducing him at his first two campaign stops.

"You know what it means to be a Chicago politician," Schock said ominously to the crowd at Romney's first event, just across the Mississippi river from Illinois, before extolling them to caucus for Romney, whom he said the White House most feared.

While Romney-supporting Super PAC Restore Our Future has been spending millions in negative ads attacking his GOP opponents, most notably Newt Gingrich, Romney himself has largely tried to avoid referencing his rivals by name on the stump. He told reporters today he intended to keep the focus on President Obama going forward.

"I think people want a nominee who can beat Barack Obama. So they are focused on the message and the passion and the organization and the energy to beat Barack Obama," Romney said. "Let's focus on the person who really is the target of our effort, and that’s what I'm doing."

But Romney did make a backhanded reference to Paul this morning, telling a breakfast crowd this morning that his closest competitor in Iowa thought it was "okay" for Iran to get a nuclear bomb.

"One of the people running for president thinks it’s OK for Iran to have a nuclear weapon. I don’t," Romney said in response to a question about keeping Israel secure. "I don’t trust Ayatollahs I don't trust Ahmadinejad. I don't trust those who back Hamas and Hezbollah."

But later in the day, Romney told NBC reporter Joe St. George he would "absolutely" vote for Paul if he were to become the Republican nominee. When asked the same question at his media avail this afternoon, Romney said he had a number of different positions from Paul, but that "relative to Obama," he would support him.

COLUMBIA, S.C. -- While Rick Perry makes an all-out sprint in Iowa, he’s keeping a hand in South Carolina by releasing a robo-call featuring Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, who is campaigning for Perry in the Hawkeye State.

In the call, acquired from sources within the Perry campaign, Jindal says Perry’s campaign is “finishing strong in Iowa,“ adding that Perry is a “consistent conservative who will completely overhaul Washington” and who “is not afraid to tell the truth about the danger our country is in.”

“South Carolina can make sure that we have a conservative nominee. I believe Rick Perry is the strong conservative we need,” Jindal continues on the 23-second robo call.

Jindal, a fellow southern governor with a high national profile, hit the trail with Perry in Iowa last week, at one point correcting the Texas governor about details in his tax plan.
 
Listen to the audio here. The full script of call:

Hi, this is Governor Bobby Jindal. I’ve been on the road with Rick Perry in Iowa where his campaign is finishing strong. Governor Perry is a consistent conservative who will completely overhaul Washington. Rick Perry is not afraid to tell the truth about the danger our country is in. South Carolina can make sure that we have a conservative nominee. I believe Rick Perry is the strong conservative we need. Paid for by Rick Perry.org, Inc.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney may well be the emerging front-runner heading into Tuesday's Iowa caucuses, according to a new poll of Hawkeye State Republicans likely to participate in the contest.

Romney enjoys a slight advantage over Texas Rep. Ron Paul, according to a CNN/TIME poll released Wednesday; former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who's been pummeled by ads in the state, has fallen to fourth -- behind former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum.

Romney also enjoys a commanding lead over other Republican candidates in New Hampshire.

Twenty-five percent of likely caucus-goers said they would choose Romney. Paul was the choice of 22 percent, while 16 percent named Santorum, and 14 percent named Gingrich. Eleven percent said they would support Texas Gov. Rick Perry, and nine percent back Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann, the winner of August's straw poll.

Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, who's not competing in the state, ranks as the choice of one percent of Iowa Republicans.

The polls reflect shifting political terrain in Iowa since the release of polls earlier this month, which showed Gingrich ahead of his GOP challengers in Iowa. An NBC News-Marist poll released Dec. 4 found Gingrich leading as the preference of 21 percent of likely caucus-goers, followed by Romney at 18 percent and Paul at 17 percent. The Des Moines Register's Iowa poll showed similar results.

(A new NBC News-Marist poll of the Iowa caucuses will be released later this week.)

In the intervening weeks, the different candidates -- along with super PACs acting on their behalf -- have spent millions on ads in the state. Arguably the most significant expenditures have been made by Restore our Future, a pro-Romney super PAC that has run ads castigating Gingrich, and the Paul campaign, which has also spent to promote the libertarian-minded candidate, and in opposition to Romney and Gingrich.

Santorum has also been the beneficiary of increased social conservative suppoprt, most notably from Bob Vander Plaats, the head of The Family Leader, who endorsed the former senator independent of his group.

The new figures also underscore the fluidity of the GOP field ahead of the Jan. 3 caucus. Gingrich has slid over the past month just as Herman Cain and Bachmann -- who had each led in Iowa at one point -- had faded. The poll points to the possibility of even more shifting in the final days of the Iowa campaign: 54 percent of likely caucus-goers said they will definitely support the candidate they named, but 43 percent said they might change their mind.

Once Iowa's contest is decided, the candidates will head to New Hampshire, the host of the nation's first primary and the cycle's second nominating contest.

Forty-four percent of likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire said they would back Romney. Paul places second, at 17 percent, followed by Gingrich at 16 percent, Huntsman at nine percent, Santorum at four percent, Bachmann at three percent and Perry at two percent.

Fifty-one percent of New Hampshire primary voters said they've made up their mind, while 45 percent said they may change their mind -- offering hope to the winner of Iowa's caucuses to use a win there as a springboard heading into the Granite State.

The polls, conducted Dec. 21-24 and Dec. 26-27 by ORC, have a 4.5 percent margin of error for the Iowa results, and a four percent margin of error for the New Hampshire results.

NEWTON, Iowa -- Ron Paul's appearance at the Iowa Speedway here drew the most media attention of the campaign season -- television and print journalists, as well as photographers, made the room tough to navigate.

Paul told the audience he wants to be the first president in history where the federal government shrunk -- instead of expanded -- "by thousands of pages and regulations."

On foreign policy, Paul asked, "How long do we have to stay in Korea?" He went on to explain how the U.S. military has had a presence in that country "since I was in high school." He also said Americans have been subsidizing Japan since World War II.

On Iraq, Paul said it is "so sad what's happening," telling the audience that before the war there, Iraqis were "arch enemies" of Iran; now they are "buddying up."

He said that in order to solve the nation's financial problems, Americans need to ask, "What should the role of government be?"

"Police the world, run your personal lives, and run economy? If that's what you want, this can't work."

The Texas congressman reminded the audience about the upcoming caucuses and said a message will be sent, telling voters that it's a choice between him or the status quo.

One audience member said he was a veteran and wanted Paul as the commander-in-chief. Paul responded by telling the man he served five years in the military, voted against the wars, and receives more donations from members of the military than all other candidates combined.

Asked about going back to the gold standard, Paul said he'd "like to go forward with a gold standard" and let the markets help decide.

Asked about federal funding of the Peace Corps, Paul said the organization is "not authorized under the constitution," and those responsibilities "should be done through voluntary groups."

And on eliminating the Energy Department, Paul was asked who would control nuclear waste. He said the Defense Department would take care of those responsibilities.

Video edited by Morgan Parmet

DECORAH, Iowa -- It was almost exactly five months ago when Newt Gingrich was first campaigning in this far Northeastern town in Iowa, but a lot has changed since his last visit.

Gingrich last visited this section of the Hawkeye State in late July, mere weeks after almost all of the former speaker's senior staff quit. During that visit, Gingrich found himself near Luther College for his wife Callista's band reunion concert.

Gingrich was trailing heavily in the polls and almost $1 million in debt at that point, and ventured into Decorah with a bare-bones staff, introducing himself to diners with a quip: “I will be the only Newt Gingrich on the ballot."

Fast-forward five months to Dec. 27. Gingrich and his wife returned Tuesday to the town where Callista graduated college from to hold an event in the pizza shop beneath the apartment she lived in her senior year at Luther.

A crowd of almost 200 people packed the Mabe's Pizza basement to capacity. Press barely fit; print reporters sat on the floor practically beneath the podium at which Gingrich spoke, while TV cameras and still photographers shoved their way into somewhat acceptable positions to shoot the event.

A malt box, speakers, an advance team, security men with ear pieces and press secretaries were all seen crammed in the crowded room. The campaign manager rarely travels with the candidate anymore and the Gingriches, with their higher profile, cannot chat with the press as much.  The crowd lined up for pictures and autographs with the Gingrich’s as soon as the event concluded.

(Contrast that with the late July visit, when just two reporters -- from NBC News and the Los Angeles Times -- tagged along with Gingrich and his wife as they rode in the town's annual Nordic Feset Grand Parade. The former speaker held an impromptu and brief press conference afterward, with no mult box, lights, or campaign press secretary present.)

The former House Speaker is now polling very high in the first-in-the-nation caucus state -- a front-runner by some accounts. He may even win on Jan. 3. The campaign’s fundraising has improved drastically since the summer, although the campaign spokesperson said they would still post some debt at the end of this quarter.

After such a well-attended and somewhat organized event at Mabe’s, it’s hard to think just 21 short weeks ago, Gingrich was riding on the Winneshiek Country GOP float in a parade here, surrounded by floats with Vikings and Wizard of Oz dancers, in which few seemed to take notice a presidential candidate for president was even in the small Iowan town.

The Ron Paul campaign released another ad this morning, a flashy 30-second spot titled, “Washington Machine." It begins airing today on Iowa and New Hampshire TV, according to the Paul campaign.

An announcer says, “Serial hypocrites" (over an image of Newt Gingrich) "and flip-floppers" (over an image of Mitt Romney) "can’t clean up the mess” in Washington.

And over pictures of Ron Paul: "One man stands alone," pointing out that Paul will cut $1 trillion in his first year and balance the budget in three years. “Consistent, incorruptible, guided by faith and principle," the announcer says.

It ends with "Ron Paul: the one we’ve been looking for.”

URBANDALE, Iowa -- Texas Gov. Rick Perry on Wednesday warned that President Obama's health reform law could result in the death of ill patients, relating the story of a cancer patient he met Tuesday at a campaign stop in Creston, Iowa.

"She came up to me and she said 'Governor, if you don't get rid of Obamacare, I'm dead," he recounted. "She said they will never take care of me. And that's a powerful testimony by that lady."

The governor, who won cheers for his promise to use an executive order to gut the law, though most of the health reform law's major components haven't gone into effect yet. Perry spoke to a packed house at the biweekly breakfast meeting of the Westside Conservative Club at the Machine Shed Restaurant in Urbandale.

Perry, a veteran who served in the United States Air Force, also unveiled a new swipe at Obama for failing to schedule a "simple parade" for soldiers returning from Iraq.

"It really disturbs me that nearly after 10 years of war that this president wouldn't welcome home those heroes with a simple parade," he said, briefly appearing to become emotional. "Maybe it's because this war is unpopular with the Democrats, I don't know. But Mr. President, our soldiers come first."

The Texas governor, who has been haunted by a memorable debate gaffe from the CNBC debate last month, found himself in a refreshing position at the start of the event: correcting someone else's oops.

Arizona Sheriff Joe Arpaio, a top surrogate for Perry, especially on the issue of immigration, introduced the candidate at the breakfast meeting, beginning his remarks with a shout out to the "Buckeyes."

The home team for fans of the University of Iowa is the Hawkeyes; the Buckeyes are the mascot of Ohio State University. The crowd laughed and booed as Arpaio joked, "It's 3 o'clock Phoenix time."

Taking the microphone minutes later, Perry leapt in for the save, referencing another college team with dedicated fans in the state.

"Actually, there's probably some Cyclones in this crowd," he said, referencing Iowa State's team, after teasing Arpaio for the error.

The all-out brawl for Iowa begins… Pro-Gingrich Super PAC to the rescue… Paul’s latest TV ad… Perry desperately trying to woo evangelical voters… Did 2011 hurt the GOP’s brand?... Fast facts about the Iowa caucuses: looking at turnout… Don’t lose sight of what’s happening in Iran… And Ben Nelson’s announcement yesterday really doesn’t change much.

*** The all-out brawl for Iowa begins: From all the activity on the campaign trail yesterday, it was almost as if the GOP candidates and their campaigns woke up from the Christmas holiday and realized that the Iowa caucuses are just a week away. We saw Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum blast Ron Paul, with Gingrich even saying that he wouldn’t vote for Paul if he becomes the GOP nominee. Text messages sent to Iowa Republicans questioned Mitt Romney’s anti-abortion bona fides, according to NBC’s Alex Moe. Romney, as NBC’s Jo Ling Kent reported, compared Gingrich’s inability to get on Virginia’s ballot to “Lucille Ball and the chocolate factory,” even as he focused most of his fire on President Obama. And late last night, we learned that a new pro-Gingrich Super PAC, Strong America Now, has sent direct mail pieces to Iowa Republicans calling Romney “the second-most dangerous man in America.” The all-out battle for Iowa is fully underway. 

*** A pro-Newt Super PAC to the rescue: In addition to the group Strong America Now, the primary pro-Gingrich Super PAC -- Winning Our Future -- is up with a new TV ad defending Gingrich and stating: “Don’t let the liberal Republican establishment pick our candidate.” But the $263,000 of airtime Winning Our Future has purchased in Iowa pales in comparison to the nearly $3 million that the pro-Romney Super PAC Restore Our Future has spent in the Hawkeye State so far. (That’s more than a 10-to-1 difference.) Here’s the updated ad spending in Iowa: Perry $4.3 million, Restore Our Future $2.8 million, Paul $2.3 million, Make Us Great Again $1.6 million, Gingrich $840,000, Red, White, and Blue Fund $330,000, and Winning Our Future $263,000.

*** “Ron Paul, the one we’ve been looking for”: Meanwhile, Paul has a brand-new TV ad for Iowa and New Hampshire, according to his campaign. The ad criticizes Gingrich for being a serial hypocrite and Romney for being a flip-flopper. And it concludes with this line: “Consistent, incorruptible, guided by faith and principle -- Ron Paul, the one we’ve been looking for.”

*** Perry desperately wooing evangelical voters: Don’t miss how Rick Perry is trying to out-Huckabee Huckabee in Iowa. As NBC’s Carrie Dann reported last night, Perry said that he has reversed his acceptance of abortion in some circumstances and now opposes it even in cases of rape and incest. When you take this change in position and add it to his rhetoric on the campaign trail and in his TV ads, you see a Perry who’s making a desperate attempt to woo evangelical voters in Iowa.

*** Did 2011 hurt the GOP’s brand? In today’s Washington Post, Dan Balz raises a very important question as look ahead to next year’s general election: Have the events of 2011 -- in Congress, in the states (like Florida, Ohio, and Wisconsin), and on the GOP presidential campaign trail -- hurt the Republican Party’s brand? “Republicans are united on many policy issues, but the tea party’s influence has pushed all the presidential candidates to the right. And Obama has seized the opportunity to argue to independent voters that, whatever their disappointment with his record, they should think twice before handing power to the Republicans.”

*** Fast facts about the Iowa caucuses: In our latest installment of facts you need to know about next week’s contest in the Hawkeye State, we look at the possible turnout. Bottom line: No one is quite sure how high turnout will be. On the one hand, Republican voters are fired up about the opportunity to defeat President Obama in 2012. On the other hand, the current field of GOP candidates is light on top-tier challengers. The question: Will it top the record-breaking turnout (nearly 120,000) from last cycle? Here are the past turnout numbers for the GOP Iowa caucuses:
2008: 118,411
2000: 85,761
1996 (last time Republicans were running against an incumbent Dem): 90,889
1988: 108,560
1980: 106,051

*** Don’t lose sight of what’s happening in Iran: The news coming out of Iran -- that it might block all oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz to retaliate against U.S. economic sanctions -- is a reminder for all politicos that next year’s issue matrix could change in the blink of an eye. After all, how many people in Dec. 2007 were talking about the perilous state of the U.S. economy? In Dec. 2009, who could believe that Republicans (with power from the Tea Party) were set to win back control of the House? And in Dec. 2010, was anyone talking about the Arab Spring? A U.S. military confrontation with Iran in the Strait of Hormuz would certainly change the landscape of the 2012 presidential election, no matter how high the unemployment rate is.

*** Nelson’s announcement doesn’t change much: While Democratic Sen. Ben Nelson’s announcement yesterday that he would not to seek re-election next year was a blow to Democrats, it really doesn’t change the math or outlook for control of the Senate. First, Republicans already have a very realistic chance of winning a Senate majority next year (they need to net four pick-ups if Obama wins re-election, three if he doesn’t). Two, polls had shown that Nelson faced a difficult challenge to hold on to his seat, and it was already one of the GOP’s top pick-up opportunities. Three, if Obama wins re-election and if Elizabeth Warren beats Scott Brown in Massachusetts -- both very possible outcomes -- then Democrats have a VERY realistic chance of holding the Senate. Why? Because Obama and Warren wins would push the number the GOP needs to take control of the Senate to five, meaning that Dems could afford losing in ND, NE, MT, and MO. And because an Obama win likely means that Dem Senate candidates win in VA, OH, and WI. Bottom line: Nothing changed yesterday…

Countdown to Iowa caucuses: 6 days
Countdown to New Hampshire primary: 13 days
Countdown to South Carolina primary: 24 days
Countdown to Florida primary: 34 days
Countdown to Nevada caucuses: 38 days
Countdown to Super Tuesday: 69 days
Countdown to Election Day: 316 days

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*** Wednesday’s “Daily Rundown” line-up (with guest host Chris Cillizza): Romney Campaign Senior Adviser Eric Fehrnstrom… NBC News Campaign Embeds Carrie Dann and Jamie Novogrod from the road in Iowa… Craig Shirley on his World War II book “December 1941”… One of us (!!!) with the day’s top 2012 headlines, and more trail news with the Washington Post’s Anne Kornblut, National Review/Bloomberg View’s Ramesh Ponnuru, and Roll Call’s John Stanton.

*** Wednesday’s “Jansing & Co.” line-up: MSNBC’s Chris Jansing interviews Perry Communications Director Ray Sullivan, WHO Radio’s Simon Conway, Tea Party activist Jennifer Horn, Comcast DC Bureau Chief Robert Traynham, Pulitzer Prize winning journalist Karen Hunter, and the LA Times’ David Lautner.

*** Wednesday’s “NOW with Alex Wagner” line-up: Alex Wagner’s guests include New York Magazine's John Heilemann, New York Times Magazine Editor Hugo Lindgren, Politico’s Maggie Haberman, the Huffington Post’s Sam Stein, and NDN’s Alicia Menendez.

*** Wednesday’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports” line-up: Guest host Chris Cillizza interviews Chuck Todd about his Gingrich interview, the Washington Post’s Jonathan Capehart, FreedomWorks’ Matt Kibbe, Politico’s Jonathan Martin, National Journal’s Jill Lawrence, strategists Steve McMahon and David Winston, CNBC’s John Harwood, and NBC’s Ayman Mohyeldin in Cairo.

“During their first appearances in Iowa after the Christmas holiday, leading Republican presidential candidates Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney had two different targets during a pair of appearances in the eastern part of the state,” the Boston Globe’s Johnson reports. “Gingrich, the former House speaker from Georgia, reached out yesterday for the potent conservative Iowa caucus voting bloc with a battle cry for the soul of the GOP.”

The New York Times: “The Republican presidential candidates sharpened their criticism of Representative Ron Paul on Tuesday in an effort to keep his support from growing among voters who are frustrated with government and may be inclined to send a message to the Washington establishment by supporting him in the Iowa caucuses.”

The Washington Post: “The Republican presidential candidates opened an intensive week of campaigning in wide-open Iowa on Tuesday with the embattled Newt Gingrich casting rival Mitt Romney as an establishment defender of big government and accusing Romney’s supporters of lying about his record.”

BACHMANN: The Bachmann campaign removed the name of a South Carolina Democratic strategist from a list of the campaign’s grassroots supporters in South Carolina, NBC’s Ali Weinberg reports. The strategist said he had responded “yes” to an email solicitation from the Bachmann campaign asking him to support her efforts. 

GINGRICH: A pro-Gingrich Super PAC sent out a mailer in Iowa yesterday, labeling Romney the “second-most dangerous man in America,” NBC’s Alex Moe reports.

What Gingrich’s campaign workers in New Hampshire do in their spare time -- who doesn’t like a break-dancing elf?

ROMNEY: “Town & Country once pegged Mitt Romney for “weekends at the White House,” but not because of his 2008 or current presidential campaigns,” the Boston Globe says. “Instead, in its June 1967 issue, the magazine branded him a “serious chap” and swooned over his height and ‘dark hair and eyes’ as it put him on its list of ‘America’s most eligible young men.’ At the time, 20-year-old Willard Mitt Romney was the son of a presidential candidate, then-Michigan Governor George Romney.”

He wins the endorsement of the Boston Herald, which hasn’t always been in his corner. “Now we are more aware than most of our former governor’s reputation for being, well, a bit stiff. But this is a contest for what we used to call Leader of the Free World (before Barack Obama downgraded the job), not Mr. Congeniality or the guy you’d most like to have a beer with,” the Herald writes. “We don’t need a buddy in the White House; we need a leader — one who can work with a deeply divided Congress and a deeply divided nation.”

He disagreed with Gingrich yesterday on his stance on judges: “Romney said he would not allow Congress to subpoena judges to explain their rulings or to remove judges,” the Boston Globe writes. “‘Then we make a super branch known as Congress,’ Romney said. ‘We have a balance of power constitutionally, and I don’t want one branch, Congress, or even the president, to assume power above the other branches.’”

Romney was on FOX this morning, and echoing his closing argument started yesterday, he said of the 2012 election: “It’s an election about the soul of America.” On the primary and the report yesterday that Gingrich had expressed support for Romney’s health-care law in Massachusetts: “I knew that he supported the plan in the past … until he got into the race this year.” He said the plan “was right for our state” and was “based on conservative principles that came from Newt Gingrich and the Heritage Foundation … I will do what’s right for the people I represent.”

Romney continued on Gingrich: “He’s made a number of ‘mistakes’ very recently in this presidential campaign.” And: “I’m not going to change my beliefs” just because he’s in a presidential campaign.

On Iraq, Romney said, “If I were president, I would have carried out the Status of Forces Agreement,” which would have allowed the U.S. to keep between 10,000 and 20,000 troops in Iraq. But said he would not send troops back. “We can’t send troops all over the world where there are bad things happening.” He said there could have been a better transition in Iraq. “We can’t fix everything in the world,” he added again, when asked what he’d do today. “We’ve lost our capacity to use our military might because he pulled the troops out so quickly.” Now, the U.S. has to use “soft power.”

PERRY: Taegan Goddard points out: “Despite writing a book on 10th amendment rights, Rick Perry is asking federal judges to intervene and allow him on the Virginia presidential primary ballot.”

NBC’s Carrie Dann reports on Rick Perry’s “transformation” to move more to the right on abortion. He’s now against exceptions for rape and incest, he says, after seeing a film produced by former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who, by the way, won Iowa in 2008.

SANTORUM: “Rick Santorum isn't going down without a fight. In fact, that fight might be lifting him up,” the AP’s Beaumont writes. “His cash-strapped campaign has only just started running TV ads, and his organization is small in a state whose contests rely on the ability of campaigns to turn out a slew of supporters. Still, there's evidence that Iowa Republicans, many of whom are still undecided and looking for a conservative candidate, may be starting to give the former Pennsylvania senator a look at just the right time.”

More: “In recent days, Santorum's crowds have started growing as he rallies conservatives with a pit bull's pugnaciousness, and just a touch of anger. He has earned the support of a number of key backers of former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who won the 2008 Republican caucuses. They include former gubernatorial candidate Bob Vander Plaats, conservative Sioux City radio host Sam Clovis and some influential evangelical pastors. He landed the endorsement Tuesday of evangelical conservative activists Alex and Brett Harris, founders of Huck's Army, a national group that supported Huckabee's 2008 campaign.”

NEBRASKA: “Democratic Sen. Ben Nelson survived nearly two decades representing heavily Republican Nebraska by carving a path down the political center,” the AP says. “But faced with navigating that road in an increasingly polarizing climate, Nelson is stepping away -- and swinging the door wide open for the GOP.” The wire service points out that Nelson “was facing a tough campaign against several Republicans who've spent the past several months attacking his support for President Barack Obama's health care overhaul and federal stimulus legislation.”

obtained by NBC News

MASON CITY, Iowa – The Strong America Now Super PAC is sending direct mail pieces to Iowans this week in support of Newt Gingrich while attacking Mitt Romney – something the Gingrich campaign has vowed not to tolerate.

"Romney is the second most dangerous man in America and will perpetuate Obama's slide into financial crisis," one of at least two mailers from the Super PAC floating around the state reads. "Don't let Romney backers mislead you!" it continues.

"Newt Gingrich,” that same piece of literature reads, “Has the proven experience eliminating the deficit and making America prosperous."

obtained by NBC News

Another mailer from the Strong America Now Super PAC calls Gingrich "the right choice" and says he is the only candidate that has the track record to reduce the deficit. 

Romney, on the other hand, the ad reads, "has refused to sign a pledge to eliminate the deficit by the end of his first term in office… Romney's plan comes nowhere close to eliminating the federal deficit – at any point."

The former House Speaker has been very critical of Romney’s Super PAC, Restore Our Future, as it has been running endless negative television ads and mailing numerous anti-Gingrich campaign pieces.

Last Tuesday in Iowa, Gingrich even called on Romney to publicly demand his Super PACs only run positive ads.

"He can say that he condemns negative ads and I ask that PAC to run only positive ads. It is very simple. Anything short of that is bologna. We ought to understand these are his people, running his ads, doing his dirty work while he pretends to be above it," Gingrich said in Ottumwa, Iowa, on Dec. 20.

The Speaker's campaign would not comment on what seems to clearly be a pro-Gingrich Super PAC that is attacking Romney – one of the Strong America Now Super PAC mailers reads: "Newt Gingrich for president."

The purpose of the Strong America Now Super PAC mailers, according to the FEC website, is to support Gingrich and also "opposes Mitt Romney."

obtained by NBC News

Chip Somodevilla / Getty Images

Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney greets supporters and signs autographs Tuesday during a rally at the Hotel Blackhawk in Davenport, Iowa.

DAVENPORT, IA -- Opening his final push toward next week's Iowa caucus, Mitt Romney on Tuesday night delivered a more polished version of his so-called "closing argument" speech, in which he ignored his GOP rivals for the nomination and focused on drawing stark contrasts with President Barack Obama.

Harkening back to a speech by then-candidate Obama in Davenport in 2007, Romney said the president has failed to deliver on his campaign promises to bring people together and to fix Washington.

"Gone is the 'hope and change' candidate of Davenport. Gone is the candidate who would heal the nation. Instead, the campaigner in chief divides Americans, engages in class warfare and resorts to distortion and demagoguery," Romney said. "Once, Barack Obama appealed to our better angels; today he demonizes fellow Americans."

The former Massachusetts governor begins a three-day bus tour of the Hawkeye state Wednesday, when he will be joined by top surrogates. Recent polls show the on-again-off-again front runner battling for the top spot in the state -- which Romney's campaign has long argued he does not have to win to secure the nomination -- with Texas Rep. Ron Paul, and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.

In previous visits, Romney has drawn respectful crowds if little enthusiasm. Tuesday night he drew cheers from an overflow crowd, which spilled out of the ballroom and into the adjoining hallway, when he laid out a dramatic vision for the 2012 general election to come.

"This is an election not only to replace a president. It is an election to save the soul of America," Romney said. "It is a choice between two destinies."

Those dueling destinies -- a so-called "opportunity society" versus an "entitlement society" has been a recurring theme of Romney's for weeks on the stump. Tonight he further defined the two possible futures for the United States.

Romney said president Obama's healthcare plan, his National Labor Relations Board appointees battling Boeing, and his administration's support for companies like Solyndra were all examples of an entitlement society's governmental abuses.

"Now we know how an entitlement society works -- those in government control the resources and make the rules.  And while the rest of us stand still, they make sure that their friends get ahead," Romney said.

Democrats were quick to respond.

"Governor Romney didn’t learn the lessons of the economic crisis -- instead, he has proposed a return to the same policies that caused it, letting Wall Street write its own rules again and making middle-class families pay for tax cuts for millionaires, billionaires, and corporations," Ben LaBolt, Obama's campaign spokesman, said in a statement released just as the speech concluded. "While President Obama is fighting for an economy that rewards hard work and responsibility and provides every American with a fair shake, Mitt Romney believes in skewing the playing field toward those at the top while leaving Americans facing a challenge on their own."

Romney -- who spent $10 million in the Hawkeye state four years ago only to be dealt a devastating second-place finish -- localized his speech with a brief nod to the pioneer spirit of Iowans.

"Iowa was built by men and women who pursued their dreams.  Pioneers came here for a better life. They tilled the land and planted crops. They took prairie and turned it into community," Romney said.

Toward the end of the speech, Romney also took a swipe at Joe Biden for an op-ed piece the vice president wrote last week in the Des Moines Register.

"You have to feel sorry for Joe Biden. Four years ago, he warned us about Barack Obama. It turns out he was right," Romney said, with the crowd laughing as soon as he mentioned Biden's name. "Now, every day, he has to keep quiet about that.  And you know how hard that is for Joe.

"So he wrote a column in the Des Moines Register. He says Republicans don't care," Romney continued.  "No, Mr. Biden, we do care that under your policies more Americans have lost their jobs, more Americans are on food stamps, and more Americans have lost their homes. Blaming others is not a plan to get America working. On January 3, Iowa will start our plan to get America working."

OSCEOLA, Iowa -- In what the Texas governor calls a  "transformation," Rick Perry on Tuesday said that he has reversed his acceptance of abortion in some severe circumstances, saying that he now opposes the procedure even in cases of rape and incest.

Perry said the change came after seeing the "Gift of Life" film produced by former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. He told an audience of Iowans at Clark Electric Co-op in Osceola that he was moved by the story of a woman who introduced the film during a screening earlier this month in Des Moines.

"She said, 'I am the product of rape.' And she said 'my life has worth,'" Perry said of his exchange with the woman. "It was a powerful moment."

The Texas governor made the statement in response to a question from Joshua Verwers, a pastor at Full Faith Christian Center in Chariton, who noted that Perry had recently signed a stringent Personhood USA pledge that urges signatories to oppose abortion "without exception and without compromise."

Candidates Rick Santorum, Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul have also signed the pledge.

Verwers said after the event that he was initially skeptical of Perry's flip on the position but that the governor's answer was "too perfect" and "sincere" to have come from anywhere but Perry's own heart.

"I do believe it was a sincere answer and that he has converted his position and that he would support personhood," the pastor told reporters.

Charlie Riedel / AP

Republican presidential candidate, Texas Gov. Rick Perry speaks during a campaign stop at the Main Street Cafe in Council Bluffs, Iowa, on Tuesday.

After failing to secure a spot in Virginia's presidential primary, the presidential campaign of Gov. Rick Perry on Tuesday filed a federal court challenge to the state's stringent ballot access rules.

Perry was one of several candidates, including Newt Gingrich, who failed to gather 10,000 individual voters' signatures by Friday's deadline. 

"We believe that the Virginia provisions unconstitutionally restrict the rights of candidates and voters by severely restricting access to the ballot, and we hope to have those provisions overturned or modified to provide greater ballot access to Virginia voters and the candidates seeking to earn their support," said Perry communications director Ray Sullivan in a statement. 

Perry's lawsuit challenges the constitutionality of a state law that says those who circulate petitions to get a candidate on the ballot must be eligible, or registered, to vote in the state. Perry claims that requirement violates his freedom of speech and association.

He also challenges another provision of Virginia law that requires that a portion of signatures for statewide candidates must come from each congressional district in the state. Those signers must attest that they intended to vote in the primary of the candidate's political party.

Perry's campaign notes that other states' laws similar to Virginia's ban on out-of-state petition circulators have been struck down by federal courts.

One of the nation's leading experts on election law predicted tough going for Perry's challenge.

"Such a suit now faces long odds, both legally and politically," said Prof. Rick Hasen of the University of California at Irvine Schoool of law.

The initial hurdle, Hasen explained, is the failure to bring suit before filing time. "This is an emergency of Perry's (and Gingrich's) own making. Surely they knew of the requirement earlier," he said.

Hasen said the federal courts have reached mixed decisions on residency requirements for petition circulators. 

Sullivan told NBC News on Friday that the campaign planned to review "the facts and the law to determine whether an appeal or challenge is warranted." 

In a statement released to press Tuesday, the Perry campaign argued that the Virginia rules are "onerous" and deny both candidates and voters their 1st and 14th amendment rights "to meaningfully participate in the political process." 

The Virginia contest is scheduled for March 6. 

NBC News justice correspondent Pete Williams reported from Washington. NBC News correspondent Carrie Dann reported from Osceola, Iowa.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich suggested he might not vote for Ron Paul as the GOP presidential nominee versus President Obama in 2012.

Gingrich, in an interview Tuesday on CNN, assailed Paul as not serious and unelectable; Gingrich said the Texas congressman must answer for a series of newsletters published by his office that contained racist and anti-Semitic language.

"He's got to come up with some very straight answers to get somebody to take him seriously. Would I be willing to listen to him? Sure. I think the choice of Ron Paul or Barack Obama would be a very bad choice for America," Gingrich aid on CNN's "Situation Room with Wolf Blitzer" when asked if he would vote for Obama or Paul.

When first asked the question, Gingrich flatly responded with a "no," and later called the prospect of a general election matchup between Obama and Paul as presenting a "very hard choice."

"There will come a morning people won’t take him as a serious person," Gingrich said of Paul.

Gingrich has re-emerged Tuesday after the holiday break to take on a more aggressive tone in response to attacks by his GOP rivals. The former speaker's staff maintains that Gingrich is simply responding to attacks, and not violating his pledge to run a positive, attack-free campaign.

But Gingrich accused Paul of "systemic avoidance of reality" in his advertisements, and said that Paul would never win the nomination.

Those tough words toward Paul, who's surged into a top contender spot in Iowa's caucuses, come after a day in which Gingrich and his campaign assailed Mitt Romney as a "Massachusetts moderate."

Gingrich challenged Romney in the interview over the negative tack taken by his campaign toward Gingrich. Romney should be "man enough to own" that style of campaigning, Gingrich said.

If you're going to run a negative campaign...be man enough to own it."

MASON CITY, Iowa --  Republican presidential hopeful Rick Santorum, whose months spent campaigning in Iowa is beginning to show signs of increased support, went after Iowa frontrunner Ron Paul today, calling a potential GOP nomination of the Texas congressman's "incomprehensible" and reminding voters of the 76-year-old's age.

During two campaign stops in the Hawkeye State, Santorum used the issue of a nuclear Iran to contrast himself against Paul, who during a debate this month said the greatest danger of Iran attempting to get materials for a nuclear weapon is that a president could overreact.

"You'll have a presidential nominee in Ron Paul, who will be to the left of Barack Obama on national security," Santorum said. "It's almost incomprehensible that we would have a candidate that would be that disconnected to reality."

And Santorum even went so far as to invoke Paul's age: "He's going to be 78 years old. How many 78-year-olds change their opinion?"

The former Pennsylvania senator also used the issue to pivot to an attack on Paul's record as a legislator. "Show me one bill he's passed in Congress," Santorum said. "He's been there 20 years."

Instead, the candidate who has been polling in the single digits but whose campaign is now showing signs of life with one week until the Jan. 3 caucuses, said Paul's history as a lawmaker prove that his popular economic platforms will not pass Congress, but that he will be able to execute orders as Commander-In-Chief, which will leave conservative voters with the opposite of what they want -- no changes to the economy and a military with a minimal presence overseas.

But Paul was not the only candidate Santorum mentioned today. He critiqued Gingrich for saying illegal immigrants here longer than 25 years should not be prosecuted, and said his time campaigning through Iowa has made him better prepared for the scrutiny of being president -- something, Santorum contends, that could have served Rick Perry well.

But for a presidential hopeful, who spent so much time in Iowa, much will be made of how he finishes in Iowa. On WHO Radio in Des Moines today, Santorum would only say that a last-place finish in the caucuses would cause him to drop out. 

Santorum told NBC News, "We need to do well."

Asked what constitutes well, he said, "It's like the Supreme Court said, you know it when you see it," a reference to Justice Potter Stewart's 1964 remark on obscenity.

Thanks to Frank "Grimey" Grimes, Springfield USA for the question!

Edited and produced by NBC's Matt Loffman

PORTSMOUTH N.H. -- With just a week to go before the Iowa caucuses, Mitt Romney said Newt Gingrich's failure to qualify for the Virginia GOP primary ballot indicated a disorganized campaign effort.

“I think he compared it to Pearl Harbor. I think it’s more like Lucille Ball and the chocolate factory,” Romney told reporters at a campaign stop at Geno's Chowder House. “I mean, you got to get it organized.”

Romney was referring to an episode of "I Love Lucy," during which Lucy has trouble keeping up with an accelerating chocolate candy assembly line.

This was the second time today Romney swiped Gingrich. This morning in Londonderry, Romney called Gingrich's Virginia primary miss "not the best hour" of his bid for the White House.

"He's running his campaign in a way he thinks best," Romney said. "Obviously the Virginia setting was not the best hour of his campaign."

Gingrich failed to collect the necessary 10,000 signatures required to appear on the ballot in Virginia, where he lives. When Virginia state primary officials announced it, his campaign manager Michael Krull likened it to Japan's attack on Pearl Harbor.

“Newt and I agreed that the analogy is December 1941: We have experienced an unexpected setback, but we will re-group and re-focus with increased determination, commitment and positive action,” Krull wrote in an email.

This also comes just one day after reporters unearthed a 2006 memo penned by Gingrich, praising the health-care reform law Mitt Romney championed as governor of Massachusetts.

The barbs are the latest in a back and forth, beginning last week when Romney questioned Gingrich's ability to survive a general election against Barack Obama. Gingrich hit back, saying, he could indeed "take the heat" and challenged Romney to a one-on-one debate, which Romney declined.