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  • Gingrich asks Trump to create 'apprentice' program for poor schoolchildren

    Donald Trump suggested creating an apprentice program for young children following a meeting with Newt Gingrich in New York.

    Donald Trump said he's creating a program similar to "The Apprentice" for poor New York City schoolchildren, an idea he credited to Newt Gingrich.

    While Gingrich might not have snagged an endorsement from Trump following a meeting at the real estate mogul and reality TV star's Manhattan office, it appears the former House Speaker struck a different sort of deal to create the new program.

    "As a number of you know, I've been making the case that we need to work very hard to help poor children in poor neighborhoods acquire opportunities to work," Gingrich said following the pair's meeting. "And I've asked him to take one of the poorest schools in New York, and basically offer at least 10 apprenticeships to kids from those schools, to get them into the world of work and get them into an opportunity to earn money, and get them into a habit of showing up and realizing that hard work gets rewarded and that America's all about the work ethic."


    It's not clear whether the new program would be developed into a television program like Trump's "The Apprentice" on NBC, which has gone through several iterations since its 2004 premiere.

    If nothing else, the plan would appear to keep promoting Gingrich's somewhat controversial push to encourage more relaxed child labor standards, especially in poorer communities.

    "Really poor children in really poor neighborhoods have no habits for working and have nobody around them who works. So they literally have no habit of showing up on Monday. They have no habit of staying all day. They have no habit of I do this and you give me cash unless it's illegal," he explained last week in Des Moines.

    Trump explained: "He did mention if I could do something for some of the kids in very, very poor schools throughout the city. I thought it was a great idea. We call it an apprenticeship, and I think we all know about "The Apprentice." We're going to be picking 10, young, wonderful children, and we're going to make them 'apprenti.' We're going to have a little fun with it, and I think it's going to be something that is really going to prove results. But it was Newt's idea, and I think it's a great idea."

    Trump plans to host a debate later this month in Iowa for Republican presidential candidates. Gingrich is the only candidate to have pledged to attend.

    The two were effusive with praise for each other in their brief remarks following their meeting; Gingrich said he was a "big fan" of Trump, while Trump said he was amazed by Gingrich's success and "how it's really resonated with so many people."

  • Bachmann says her campaign's been flooded with former Cain backers

     

    COLUMBIA, S.C. -- Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann said he campaign has been inundated by former supporters of Herman Cain looking to join the Bachmann team.

    Bachmann wouldn't estimate how many Cain fans had jumped to support her effort, but said "our phone has been ringing off the hook."

    “I just want to say how grateful I am and our campaign is for all of the people who are calling our campaign offices who were formerly Herman Cain supporters,” Bachmann said before an event in Myrtle Beach where she signed copies of her book, “Core of Conviction.”

    Cain, a once-popular presidential candidates among GOP primary voters, announced Saturday that he was suspending his campaign amidst the damage a string of alleged instances of sexual harassment and an affair had done to his campaign. Rival Republican candidates have scrambled to court Cain voters in the meanwhile.

    Bachmann held six book signings during a three-day swing through South Carolina.

  • First Thoughts: Crunch time for Romney

    Crunch time for Romney… And crunch time for Newt, too… With three weeks of TV advertising time before Christmas, don’t lose sight of the outside groups… Four storylines from our new NBC-Marist polls… Who benefits from a strong Ron Paul?... Paul and Gingrich up with new TV ads… Cain is hardly exiting the political stage… And the White House makes its push for Cordray.

    *** Crunch time for Romney: Last week was rough one for Mitt Romney. His critics jumped all over his testy/prickly interview with FOX’s Bret Baier. He didn’t wear well in a focus group of Republican primary voters in Fairfax, VA. Over the weekend, two Iowa polls (NBC-Marist and the Des Moines Register) found him trailing Newt Gingrich in the Hawkeye State, and another NBC-Marist poll showed his lead narrowing in New Hampshire. You could even argue that Herman Cain’s suspended campaign was additional bad news for Romney, because polls -- including our NBC-Marist survey -- find that Cain’s supporters tend to break for Gingrich and Ron Paul over Romney. So that’s the bad news for Romney. The good news is that he has three weeks until the Christmas holidays to right the ship. During that time, we’ll see two more debates in Iowa (on Dec. 10 and Dec. 15), as well as a significant surrogate (New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie) campaigning for him in Iowa later this week.

    *** Flying by the seat of his pants: The next two or three weeks are also crunch time for Gingrich, as he seeks to capitalize on his new front-runner status. As the New York Times writes, “Surging in polls is one thing. But as Newt Gingrich seeks to turn his impressive performance in surveys into votes, he is scrambling madly to build the kind of organization that Mitt Romney has methodically put in place for a year, one that will let him compete through all 50 contests, often in multiple states at once… [A]s an adviser to his skeletal Iowa operation admitted, ‘The reality is we’re flying by the seat of the pants.’” Yet get this: Per NBC’s Alex Moe, Gingrich is up with his first TV ad, a positive 60-second spot that will air in Iowa. And as one of us notices, the ad’s music seems to borrow from the movie “Rudy.” Actually, who doesn’t want their political campaign compared to Rudy? We’re sure that was no accident.

    *** Don’t lose sight on the outside groups: Here’s a question we have: Who is going to do the dirty work for Romney to soften up Gingrich? Will it be that pro-Romney Super PAC, Restore Our Future, which has LOTS of money, and hasn’t spent it yet? Another outside group? Remember, it was an outside group -- fronted by Robert Gibbs, of all people -- that started running TV ads hitting Howard Dean in late 2003/early 2004 to stop Dean and eventually move the nomination back to the “establishment.”

    *** Four storylines from our polls: Our NBC-Marist polls of Iowa and New Hampshire contained four storylines. One, Gingrich is surging in both states. He's leading in Iowa at 26% among likely caucus-goers, followed by Romney at 18%, Paul at 17%, and Cain and Perry at 9%. (When you reallocate the Cain supporters' second choices, it's Gingrich at 28%, Paul and Romney at 19%, and Perry at 10%.) Also, in New Hampshire, Gingrich has gone from 4% in October to 23% now -- a 19-point jump. A second storyline is Romney’s decline in both states; he dropped eight points in Iowa and six points in New Hampshire. (LARGE majorities of Republicans believe Romney’s a moderate, not a conservative; can a “moderate” win a Republican primary?) A third is Rick Perry treading water, despite spending a significant amount of money on TV ads. He’s at 9% in Iowa (a two-point drop since October) and at 3% in New Hampshire (a four-point decline). Remember, no candidate has spent MORE money on TV ads so far than Perry. And a fourth storyline is Ron Paul’s strength -- he’s at 17% in Iowa and 16% in New Hampshire. And that Iowa number climbs when Cain’s not included.

    *** Who benefits from a strong Paul? Paul’s strength raises this question: Who benefits in a three-way contest consisting of Gingrich, Romney, and Paul? Is it Romney, because Paul holds Gingrich back among Tea Party supporters? Or is it Gingrich? Don’t forget: Just four years ago, Fred Thompson’s campaign helped dilute Mike Huckabee’s support (especially in South Carolina), which cleared the way for John McCain to win the GOP nomination. Paul’s 15%-20% in primaries -- and it’s not like he’s in this for the short haul -- means the “winning” number in states will be under 50%. Isn’t that exactly what Romney needs? By the way, NBC’s Anthony Terrell reports that Paul is up with a new TV ad that will air in Iowa and New Hampshire. “You want big cuts? Ron Paul’s been screaming it for years,” the ad states, adding that Paul wants to eliminate the Education, HUD, Commerce, Interior, and Energy departments. "Later, bureaucrats. That's how Ron Paul rolls.”

    *** Cain is hardly exiting the political stage: And while Herman Cain suspended his campaign on Saturday, he isn’t necessarily exiting stage left. Tonight, at 7:30 pm ET, Cain attends an Oklahoma Republican Party “2012 victory” event in Oklahoma City.

    NBC's Domenico Montanaro reports on Herman Cain's rollercoaster campaign and why it the Cain train went off the tracks. 

    *** On the 2012 trail: Gingrich meets with Donald Trump in New York City… Romney raises money in California… And Santorum makes several campaign stops in Iowa.

    *** The White House’s push for Cordray: Turning to the activity at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, the Obama White House is pushing to get GOP senators to support Richard Cordray nominated to head the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Politico: “President Barack Obama is targeting Red State Republican senators opposed to Richard Cordray’s nomination as director of the new Consumer Financial Protection Bureau — part of his larger strategy to portray the GOP as pawns of Wall Street. Cordray, a well-regarded former Democratic Ohio attorney general and five-time Jeopardy! champion, is likely to be voted down Thursday by a filibuster-proof bloc of GOP senators who don’t want anyone at the helm of the watchdog until the agency’s powers are restricted. That stance, Obama advisers believe, puts GOP senators at risk from constituents who want to see the agency crack down on the financial services industry, especially payday lenders.” The push for Cordray is all part of the White House’s push to make the president look like the populist in Washington. See tomorrow’s “Teddy Roosevelt” narrative that the White House is trying to create. (We’ll have more on that tomorrow.)

    *** Monday’s “Daily Rundown” line-up: David Axelrod on the president’s re-election campaign… Donald Trump on the GOP field and his upcoming forum… Marist College’s Lee Miringoff on the new NBC/Marist polls in New Hampshire and Iowa… Former Reps. Tom Davis (R-VA) and Martin Frost (D-TX) on festering fiscal friction… And more 2012 news with the AP’s Kasie Hunt, ThinkProgress.org’s Faiz Shakir and the New York Times’ Ross Douthat.

    *** Monday’s “NOW with Alex Wagner” line-up: Alex Wagner’s guests include The Nation’s Ari Melber, Politico’s Maggie Haberman, the Daily Caller’s Matt Lewis, The Grio’s Joy-Ann Reid, and the Huffington Post’s Trymaine Lee. 

    *** Monday’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports” line-up (guest-hosted by Savannah Guthrie): NBC’s Savannah Guthrie interviews Iowa GOP Chair Matt Strawn, NBC News campaign embed Jamie Novogrod about the Gingrich/Trump meeting, Politico’s Jim VandeHei, Co-founder of “No Labels” Mark McKinnon about the state of the GOP, NBC’s Jay Gray, and the Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza.

    *** Monday’s “News Nation with Tamron Hall”: MSNBC’s Tamron Hall interviews Robert Traynham, AB Stoddard, and Michael Smerconish, former Pennsylvania AG Walter Cohen (on the latest Sandusky interview), Tuft University’s Peter Levine, and liberal blogger Jane Hamsher.

    Countdown to Iowa caucuses: 29 days
    Countdown to New Hampshire primary: 36 days
    Countdown to South Carolina primary: 47 days
    Countdown to Florida primary: 57 days
    Countdown to Nevada caucuses: 61 days
    Countdown to Super Tuesday: 92 days
    Countdown to Election Day: 339 days

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  • 2012: Gingrich, Paul up with new TV ads

    With about four weeks until the first Republican presidential nominating contest, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has surged to the lead in Iowa and has climbed nearly 20 percentage points in New Hampshire since October, according to new NBC News-Marist polls.

    The New York Daily News says of Gingrich vs. Romney: “These days [Gingrich is] on his best behavior, trying to exorcise his rep as CEO of the ready-aim-fire school of political oratory. But as a GOP mandarin worried, ‘You never know when Newt will pull the pin on that hand grenade he keeps in his suit pocket. But you know he will.’ Like Gingrich, Romney must prove the naysayers wrong. Whoever does the better job of curbing his least appetizing tendencies will be tapped to make the case they both fervently share — that Barack Obama is a failed President.”

    George Will, per Political Wire, on Romney: "Obama is running as Harry Truman did in 1948, against Congress, but Republicans need not supply the real key to Truman's success -- Tom Dewey. Confident that Truman was unelectable, Republicans nominated New York's chilly governor, whose virtues of experience and steadiness were vitiated by one fact: Voters disliked him. Before settling for Romney, conservatives should reconsider two candidates who stumbled early on" – Rick Perry and Jon Huntsman.

    BACHMANN: “The Des Moines Register on a nice endorsement from the influential founder of the socially-conservatives Eagle Forum,” GOP 12 writes, quoting the Register: “Social conservative Phyllis Schlafly has endorsed Michele Bachmann for president and is urging Iowans to caucus for her.”

    CAIN: A defiant Herman Cain suspended his bid for the presidency Saturday. Here’s a look at the rollercoaster ride it was and how it all unraveled for Cain.

    By the way, we break down what exactly suspending a campaign means.

    Cain may have suspended his campaign, but as the New York Post writes, “confirming that his White House bid is effectively over, Cain also promised a presidential endorsement ‘in the near future’ and his campaign reportedly began reaching out to some of his former rivals before his announcement.”

    GINGRICH: He’s out with his first ad, a gauzy video full of string music and overtures about America’s greatness.

    As NBC’s Brooke Brower points out the ad’s music sounds an awful lot like the theme from the movie Rudy.

    The New York Times: “Surging in polls is one thing. But as Newt Gingrich seeks to turn his impressive performance in surveys into votes, he is scrambling madly to build the kind of organization that Mitt Romney has methodically put in place for a year, one that will let him compete through all 50 contests, often in multiple states at once.”

    The anti-Newt… Barney Frank. On ABC, per the Boston Globe: “Newt is the Wizard of Oz. There’s nothing there. He’s ginned up this whole big thing. … He would be a very weak candidate, he would lose heavily and a lot of Democrats would win races.” And: “Romney is understandably seen as insufficiently conservative, because Mitt is insufficiently anything if you believe in principles.”

    Of the Des Moines Register poll, the Boston Globe writes that it “illustrates the resurgence of Gingrich, who lost much of his staff this summer and whose campaign went into debt. … Meanwhile, Romney’s support dropped from 22 percent in October. But one positive note for Romney is that voters still view him as the most able to beat President Obama.”

    “Newt Gingrich ‘is working more aggressively than any of his competitors to organize activists and volunteers" ahead of the Jan. 21 South Carolina primary, "essentially pinning his candidacy on a state filled with Christian conservatives,’ the AP reports,” per Political Wire.

    Gingrich went to Staten Island Saturday and “the crowd ate up his speech, frequently breaking into chants of ‘Newt, Newt, Newt,’” the New York Daily News reports.

    HUNTSMAN: The Hill wonders if Jon Huntsman could play spoiler for Mitt Romney in the Granite State. Huntsman got 9% in the NBC/Marist poll of New Hampshire voters out Sunday. Romney pulled 39% to Gingrich’s 23%.

    PAUL: Paul released another TV ad that will run on broadcast and cable in Iowa and New Hampshire. The ad, titled "Big Dog," calls Paul’s Republican rivals “sorry politicians” in their plan to reduce the deficit, saying they have “lots of bark, but when it’s show time, whimpering like Shih Tzu's.”

    SANTORUM: Political Wire notes: “Ben Smith highlights the ‘saddest statistic’ from Des Moines Register poll which asked, ‘Which of the candidates have you seen in person before the caucuses?’ ‘Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum got 12%. Santorum has run a traditional, all-in Iowa campaign, practically moving to the state and visiting each of its counties. Romney has been there four times this year.’”

    ROMNEY: NBC's Jo Ling Kent reports that Mitt Romney today announced the endorsements of New Hampshire Sheriffs Wayne Estes (R-Strafford County) and Gerald Marcou (R-Coos County).

    “The timing of Mr. Gingrich’s rise, just a month before the nomination voting starts, and his track record in national Republican politics make his a graver threat than earlier surges by Representative Michele Bachmann, Gov. Rick Perry of Texas and Herman Cain. That’s clear from Mr. Romney’s allusions to Mr. Gingrich, a former House speaker, as a ‘lifelong politician,’ an ‘insider’ and a ‘lobbyist’ — with more probably to come in debates and perhaps television advertisements,” John Harwood writes in the New York Times. “‘Mitt likes to say he served in government but didn’t inhale,’ said one of his aides, Eric Fehrnstrom. ‘Newt has taken large inhalations of Washington air.’” (Few believed the first guy who said that either.)

    The Romney campaign says no to Lincoln-Douglas debates with Gingrich.

    The New York Times got behind-the-scenes access to a FOX forum on Saturday. “Mr. Romney, a former Massachusetts governor, was the last to arrive at the Fox News offices in Midtown Manhattan. He came in with his wife, Ann, and a smattering of aides and travel staff, and they quickly settled into a small conference room near the 12th-floor studio. Spotting the reporter, Mr. Romney’s aides sprang into action, asking where he worked and what he was doing there, and then insisting that he not physically approach Mr. Romney before or after he was questioned on television by the attorneys general and Mr. Huckabee.  The request was reiterated to executives at Fox News.”

  • Congress: Frosty

    “President Barack Obama's relationships with Congressional Republicans have withered in recent months, casting doubt on his ability to influence Congress during the election season next year as well as his ability to push an aggressive agenda if he wins a second term,” Roll Call writes. “Though Republicans are in a good position to hold the levers of power in both chambers come 2013, several rank-and-file GOP Senators told Roll Call last week that Obama hasn't called them at all this year — and several said his standoffish relations have hurt his agenda in a chamber that is pivotal to any White House legislative successes.” Olympia Snowe, “who is up for re-election next year, said the Obama White House has the worst relationship with Congress of any of the six presidents with whom she's served.”

    Then again, from Obama’s first days in office, congressional Republicans didn’t exactly embrace the president with open arms.

  • Obama agenda: The Cordray push

    Bloomberg News: “President Barack Obama is setting up to campaign as a populist defender of the middle class, using the fight over his nominee to run the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and the extension of a payroll tax cut. The president will be ‘aggressively’ campaigning for Richard Cordray’s confirmation ahead of a likely Dec. 8 Senate vote, White House spokesman Josh Earnest told reporters yesterday.”

    President Obama got laughs at the Kennedy Center Honors Sunday night. Of cellist Yo-Yo Ma, Obama said, "Everybody likes him. You've got to give me some tips. … I thought about asking him to go talk to Congress."

    “The president of the United States is defending his faith in America, confronting GOP efforts to undercut his leadership and raise questions about his patriotism as he seeks re-election,” AP writes. “In the battle over "American exceptionalism," Obama used a recent trip to Asia to highlight America's role as the strongest and most influential nation on earth. In this election season, responding to the Republican critique is essential for Obama, the only incumbent ever compelled to show a birth certificate to defend his legitimacy.”

    Newark Mayor Corey Booker will campaign in New Hampshire Friday for President Obama, the Boston Globe reports.

    “President Obama is planning to jet off to Hawaii for a 17-day Christmas vacation,” the New York Daily News reports. “Obama, who visited the island two weeks ago for an economic summit, is set to relax in Honolulu from Dec. 17 to Jan. 2. The family trip to Hawaii over the holidays has become routine for Obama, who grew up on the island.”

    “A chance encounter with Vice President Dick Cheney at a shopping center in Colorado allowed Steven Howards to express his disgust with the Iraq war and touch Cheney on the shoulder,” AP writes. “It also led to Howards' arrest by Secret Service agents. Five years later, Howards' claim that the agents detained him because of his criticism is the subject of a lawsuit that the Supreme Court could hear. The justices could say Monday whether they'll take the case. … Agents Virgil D. ‘Gus’ Reichle Jr. and Dan Doyle have the support of the Obama administration in arguing they should be shielded from such suits when they have a good reason, or probable cause, to make an arrest.”

  • More 2012: Wither Iowa?

    IOWA: “For the past few decades, presidential hopefuls made a show of their Iowa campaigns, boasting local endorsements and flashing extensive lists of chairmen from the state’s 99 counties, backers who will be ready to turn out supporters for that candidate at the caucuses,” Roll Call writes. “But this cycle, campaigns aren’t playing the traditional ground game. Presidential candidates have minimally organized their Iowa campaigns — if they’re organizing at all. One month before the Jan. 3 caucuses, Iowa veterans expect one of the most unpredictable, nontraditional caucuses in recent history.”

  • Gingrich takes control in Iowa

    With about four weeks until the first Republican presidential nominating contest, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has surged to the lead in Iowa and has climbed nearly 20 percentage points in New Hampshire since October, according to new NBC News-Marist polls.

    Meanwhile, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has seen his support drop in both states.

    In Iowa, which holds its caucuses on Jan. 3, Gingrich gets the support of 26 percent of likely caucus-goers (including those leaning towards a candidate) -- a 21-point jump since October.

    Read the NBC News-Marist poll Iowa Annotated Questionnaire

    He’s followed by Romney at 18 percent (an eight-point decline), Texas Rep. Ron Paul at 17 percent (a five-point increase), Herman Cain at 9 percent (an 11-point drop) and Texas Gov. Rick Perry at 9 percent (a two-point dip). No other Republican presidential candidate gets more than 5 percent support among likely caucus-goers.

    With Cain’s decision to suspend his campaign -- which he announced on Saturday -- a reallocation of his supporters’ second-choice picks puts Gingrich ahead of the Iowa horse race with 28 percent; Paul and Romney are tied at 19 percent; and Perry lands at 10 percent. (The NBC-Marist polls were conducted before Cain suspended his campaign.)

    Among all Republican respondents in Iowa, the breakdown is Gingrich with 25 percent, Romney at 18 percent and Paul at 16 percent.

    Romney still leads in New Hampshire
    In New Hampshire, which holds its primary on Jan. 10, Romney continues to lead, getting the support of 39 percent of likely GOP primary voters. But that’s a six-point decline since October.

    Romney is followed in the Granite State by Gingrich at 23 percent (a 19-point gain), Paul at 16 percent (a three-point increase), and former Utah Gov. Huntsman at 9 percent (a four-point jump). No other Republican candidate gets more than 3 percent support.

    Read the NBC News-Marist poll New Hampshire Annotated Questionnaire

    The decision by Cain -- who is at 2 percent support in New Hampshire -- to suspend his campaign doesn’t change the race there all that much: Romney stays at 39 percent, while Gingrich moves one point to 24 percent.

    Among all New Hampshire Republicans, the breakdown is Romney with 40 percent, Gingrich with 21 percent, Paul with 16 percent, and Huntsman at 10 percent.

    What’s hurting Romney
    What appears to be hurting Romney: perceptions of his ideology and his record as Massachusetts governor.

    A combined 71 percent of likely Republican caucus-goers in Iowa, as well as a combined 71 percent of likely GOP primary voters in New Hampshire, view Romney as either “moderate” or “liberal.”

    Among Iowa Republicans identifying with the Tea Party -- who make up about half of all likely caucus-goers -- Gingrich leads Romney, 32 percent to 11 percent. And among Tea Party Republicans in New Hampshire, Gingrich and Romney are tied at 33 percent each.

    What’s more, 63 percent of likely Iowa caucus-goers and 60 percent of likely New Hampshire primary voters say it’s unacceptable if a presidential candidate supports an individual health-care mandate (as Romney helped enact in Massachusetts).

    By comparison, 47 percent of likely Iowa caucus-goers and 41 percent of likely New Hampshire primary voters say it’s unacceptable if a candidate favors some sort of limited legalization -- or “amnesty” -- for illegal immigrants living in the United States (as Gingrich has suggested he supports).

    Measuring Obama
    Turning to the general election in Iowa and New Hampshire, President Barack Obama’s approval rating remains underwater in both states.

    Forty-three percent of registered voters in Iowa approve of his job performance, which is up one point from October. In New Hampshire, 40 percent of registered voters approve of his job performance, up two points.

    Yet -- with one exception -- he leads all GOP challengers in hypothetical match-ups in the Hawkeye State. He’s ahead of Romney by seven points among registered voters (46 percent to 39 percent), Gingrich by 10 points (47 percent to 37 percent) and Perry by 11 points (48 percent to 37 percent).

    The one exception: Paul ties him at 42 percent for each.

    In New Hampshire, Romney leads Obama by three points (46 percent to 43 percent), although that’s down from Romney’s nine-point advantage in October.

    But Obama leads all other Republicans in the state -- Paul (by two points), Gingrich (by 10) and Perry (by 15).

    The Iowa NBC-Marist survey was conducted Nov. 27-29 of 2,896 registered voters (margin of error of plus-minus 1.8 percentage points) 916 Republicans (plus-minus 3.2 percentage points) and 425 likely GOP caucus-goers (plus-minus 4.8 percentage points.

    The New Hampshire poll was conducted Nov. 28-30 of 2,263 registered voters (plus-minus 2.1 percentage points), 967 total Republicans (plus-minus 3.2 percentage points) and 696 likely GOP primary voters (plus-minus 3.7 percentage points).

    Mark Murray covers politics for NBC News.

  • Gingrich surges in Des Moines Register poll

    DES MOINES, Iowa -- One month ahead of the highly anticipated Iowa caucuses, one candidate has effectively ended his campaign and a new poll in the first-in-the-nation state provides more evidence that a new dynamic has emerged.

    A new Iowa Poll by the Des Moines Register shows that former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has surged into a clear lead in the state, the results coming on the same day that Georgia businessman Herman Cain suspended his run for the White House.

    In the new survey, taken before Cain's announcement, Gingrich received 25 percent of support from likely caucus goers.  His showing is a gain of 18 percentage points since the last Iowa Poll was released on Oct. 29. That poll showed Gingrich in fifth place, trailing Cain and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

    Romney dropped 6 percentage points and into third place in the new survey, polling at just 16 percent

    Rep. Ron Paul of Texas moved into second place in the Register's poll, with 18 percent, up from 12 percent.

    Eleven percent of likely caucus goers say they are undecided. Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota trails with 8 percent (the same she polled in the October poll), Texas Gov. Rick Perry and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum are tied at 6 percent, and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman came in at 2 percent.

    Although the poll was conducted before his announcement, Cain received just 8 percent in the new poll.

    Gingrich has risen despite spending no money on television advertising in the state thus far and having just opened a campaign headquarters in the state this week.

    This new Iowa Poll was made public just after a prominent Northwest Iowa newspaper, the Sioux City Journal, give its endorsement to Romney saying he has the "experience, skills and charisma to lead the country." The Register has yet to endorse a candidate.

    Gingrich now commands a nine-point lead over Romney with 30 days to go before Iowans vote.

    "Solutions matter and so does Iowa. Newt is going to keep campaigning hard and when it is time to caucus Iowa will be able to choose a President who is offering leadership now," Gingrich spokesman R.C. Hammond told NBC News shortly after the poll was released.

    Such volatility in Iowa is not abnormal.  Four years ago at this time, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee jumped ahead of Romney in the Des Moines Register poll. Huckabee moved ahead of Romney by 5 percentage points and went on to win the caucuses a month later.

     New NBC News/Marist polls from Iowa and New Hampshire will be released Sunday at 9 a.m. EST, as well.

    An analysis from the Des Moines Register notes that the race in Iowa is still far from settled, as 60 percent said they could still change their minds. Forty-three percent of likely caucus goers picked Gingrich as first or second, according to the paper.

    There are three upcoming debates in Iowa: Dec. 10, Dec. 15 and Dec. 27.

     

  • Iowa reacts to the Cain train derailment

    URBANDALE, IA -- The announcement by former Godfathers Pizza CEO Herman Cain that he is suspending his run for president exactly one month before the Iowa caucuses drew wistful reactions today from top Iowa staffers and volunteers.

    "The Cain train has been derailed today," Cain's Iowa Chairman Steve Grubbs told NBC News during an on-camera interview shortly after Cain's announcement, which was delivered from Atlanta, GA.

    Grubbs, who joined the campaign right after Cain began his rise in the polls, said he was "disappointed" his candidate dropped out, but noted recent scandals took the presidential hopeful away from his message.

    "Boy, what I would have given for a couple of drama-free weeks just to focus on message and organization," Grubbs said.

    Cain received weeks of scrutiny over a possible extramarital affair and sexual-harassment allegations against him, though he denied the claims. The most recent allegation -- and, it seems final straw for his campaign -- came two weeks ago, when Ginger White accused the Georgia businessman of engaging in a 13-year affair with her. Cain said the two were merely friends and he helped her financially, although he later revealed to the media he never informed his wife of 43 years, Gloria, that he was helping White.

    Neither Grubbs nor other Iowa campaign staff knew what Cain would say when he took the podium at what was billed as an event marking the opening of his Georgia headquarters.

    "I'm the Iowa communications director for Iowa, but I know nothing," said Lisa Lockwood, a staffer in Cain's state headquarters here in Urbandale, shortly before the announcement.

    Lockwood watched Cain's announcement stream in live on her laptop as a gaggle of reporters looked on. 

    "I'm surprised, I'm disappointed," Lockwood said afterward, visibly choked up. "I think he's an awesome man, and I think he would have been awesome president."

    Outside Lockwood's office, the headquarters had the feel of a campaign abruptly interrupted. Three-thousand yard signs had just been delivered to the office Tuesday night.

    State director Larry Tuel said cubicles for phone banks had been installed only days ago.

    "I like a fight, and I think Herman Cain does, too," Tuel said. "I wanted to stay in, because I think we could do well in Iowa.

    One supporter, Patti Spencer Burdette, said she spent all day Friday delivering signs for the campaign. 

    "We love him, and he loves us," Burdette said. "Were a family. And there's sadness in the family."

    But outside his family of stalwart volunteers, support for Cain has dropped in Iowa since the allegations came to light. A new Des Moines Register Iowa poll shows Herman Cain polling at just 8% among likely caucus-goers. This is down from the 23% of support he received in the Register's October poll.

    Iowa GOP Chairman Matt Strawn told NBC News Cain's that withdrawal -- 30 days before the caucuses -- adds yet more uncertainty to a very fluid and crowded race.

    "I think there is a huge opportunity for those Herman Cain supporters to find a home behind a candidate or two and give them momentum," Strawn said.

    Several caucus-goers inside a restaurant near Cain's headquarters paid tribute to Cain Saturday, but added that during the past several weeks they had settled on a candidate: former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.

    "He has an intelligent grasp of all the issues, and I perceive he is the most competent to lead this nation back into its prosperity," said James Sandin, a Des Moines resident, of Gingrich.

    But Sandin added that he is a strong admirer of Cain. "He portrayed himself as a man of the people. A common man, a business man, not a politician," he said.  "He will be missed in the campaign."

  • What 'suspending' a campaign means

    Herman Cain today said he was "suspending" his campaign -- a distinction that is a political one rather than a legal one, says Michael Toner, a prominent Republican election lawyer and former Federal Election Commission chairman.

    "It gives you more flexibility politically" and "political cover to get back in the race," if a candidate chooses to do so, Toner said. "It gives you more wiggle room."

    By not officially terminating his campaign, a candidate can continue to raise money to retire debt. But a candidate would not be ALLOWED to terminate unless they paid off their obligations and debts.

    For example, Hillary Clinton's 2008 campaign has never been terminated, because she still owes outstanding debts and obligations. She, too, "suspended" her campaign.

    There is nothing a candidate would file with the FEC to say they are "suspending" their campaign, Toner said, and it would take months for them to officially "terminate" it, because of those debts and obligations, anyway.

    *** UPDATE *** For those asking about ballot access and public financing...

    Cain will likely remain on ballots for which he has already qualified, but it all depends on state law, another election lawyer said.

    And, hypothetically, a candidate would also continue to be eligible for public financing -- if he applied for it. It's unlikely that Cain applied for those funds, as he's made no public comments about it.

    It's also possible -- again, hypothetically -- depending on how state laws are written, that a secretary of state could interpret Cain's announcement today as withdrawing from the race and that he is no longer to be included on a ballot.

    More likely, however, short of official "termination," which could take months because of debts and obligations owed (a campaign can't be terminated if it has them), then Cain's name would remain on whatever ballots he's already on.

    A candidate has to apply to the FEC to "terminate" a campaign. There is no legal distinction for "suspending" a campaign. In other words, Cain has declared he will no longer be an active candidate -- signifcant politically -- but, technically, he is still one in the eyes of federal law.

    And on public funding, technically if a candidate applied for public financing, then his campaign would still receive that money -- unless his campaign was "terminated."

    *** UPDATE 2 *** Cleta Mitchell, another GOP election lawyer who works with candidates and committees, said, "I think this particular campaign has used that term as a 'soft landing' exit rather than the more dramatic statement of 'terminating.'

    "There was a point in time when presidential candidates accepting federal matching funds would use the term 'suspend,' so they could still receive their federal matching funds after their campaigns had ended. However, Herman Cain isn't (to my knowledge) receiving the federal matching funds for the primary. So I think it is essentially in this instance a euphemism for ending his campaign and had no legal impact."

  • Gingrich accepts Trump debate invitation, praises Cain and Bill Clinton

    STATEN ISLAND, NY --- Newt Gingrich on Saturday accepted an invitation to appear at a December debate moderated by bombastic TV personality Donald Trump, smilingly as he asked reporters, "Who can resist The Donald?" 

    "I would want to go just for the entertainment value," he added. "I can't imagine what a debate hosted by Donald Trump would be like." 

    A spokesperson confirmed to NBC News that Gingrich will attend the Dec. 27 event. 

    "In all seriousness, Trump is a unique American character," said the former House speaker. "It'd be like if Bill Gates called and said, 'Hi, I’d like to host a debate.' The correct answer would be, 'Yes.' You wouldn't say, 'Hi, I gotta check my calendar." 

    Gingrich's remarks came at a press conference held moments after Herman Cain announced the suspension of his scandal-plagued campaign. 

    He said that he "appreciates" Herman Cain's reasons for bowing out, and praised the Atlanta businessman for having "the courage" to run for president. 

    "He deserves credit for having the courage to talk about big ideas and to focus on the economy," Gingrich later told a town hall crowd of more than 500 at a Staten Island hotel. "I know he's going to create a new citizen organization and stay active in public life." 

    Gingrich told reporters that he spoke to Cain today, but would not characterize the "personal conversation." Asked if he anticipates to be the recipient of Cain's endorsement, Gingrich responded, "I don't anticipate anything. Herman Cain's gotta make up his own mind." 

    But, he added,  "I hope to meet with him sometime next week."

    In addition to praising his fellow conservatives, Gingrich also had kind words to say for his one-time bitterest rival, former President Bill Clinton -- and he alluded to Clinton's "little courtesies," including one that rankled the speaker back in his congressional heyday. 

    "We couldn't have gotten done what we did without Clinton" Gingrich said, "Clinton had been governor for 10 years. He understood negotiating with a legislature. Little things. Having the right picnic for families. Having families with children bring the kids over. Having people fly on Air Force One. Little courtesies."

    The comment is noteworthy because Gingrich famously complained that Clinton made himself and then-Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole sit in the back of Air Force One on a 1995 flight. "It's petty, but I think it's human," Gingrich said at the time. Gingrich also helped lead the effort to impeach Clinton over the Monica Lewinsky affair. 

    (Ironically, on Saturday, Gingrich praised "all the little human things" that Clinton knew how to do to win favor.) 

    NBC's Alex Moe contributed to this report. 

  • Huntsman takes a pass on Huckabee, Trump events

    GOOSE CREEK, S.C. –- Jon Huntsman suggested today that he won’t be participating in Mike Huckabee’s FOX News forum tonight, because it does not further his ultimate goal of winning New Hampshire’s primary.

    “We're going to stay focused on the endpoint -- that's winning New Hampshire. You do as much a you can during the course of each week,” he told NBC News after speaking to members of the Berkeley County Republican Party at the American Legion club here. 

    Rather, Huntsman will be in Charlotte, NC tonight, meeting with supporters at a tailgate before the ACC championship game between Clemson and Virginia Tech, according to his campaign.

    Huntsman could, in fact, have his dance card filled with various forums, including those hosted by Huckabee, Donald Trump and Newt Gingrich, but he’s decided only to accept Gingrich’s invitation, explaining today that the former House speaker’s Lincoln-Douglas-style debate would be free of, as Huntsman put it, “nonsense.” 

    “It provides a platform of substance where you get more than 60 seconds or 30 seconds to talk about the pressing issues of the day,” Huntsman said of the debate with Gingrich, scheduled for Dec. 12. “That kind of format will lend itself to a free-flowing discussion uninterrupted by nonsense.”

    Huntsman also had terse words for Trump, who is moderating a Newsmax debate on Dec. 27 in Des Moines, Iowa. “I’m not going to journey to New York City to meet with Don Trump. You just need know that,” he said, to scattered laughter, at the American Legion.

  • Romney flexes organizational muscle in New Hampshire

    MANCHESTER, NH -- On a cold, clear New Hampshire morning, the Romney campaign today opened a blitzkrieg grassroots effort in New Hampshire, designed to show off the campaign's organizational strength and support in a state considered vital to the former Massachusetts governor's presidential aspirations.

    The campaign said the new effort, entitled "Earn It With Mitt," included 500 volunteers fanning out to knock on doors, distribute yard signs, and make thousands of calls across the state. And he kicked it off with a rally, headlined by Romney and his former presidential rival, Tim Pawlenty, here in Manchester.

    While Romney and Pawlenty stayed on message during the rally -- Pawlenty praised Romney's electability and values, and Romney attacked the president for his 17-day holiday vacation -- the day's brewing political news about the race's two Georgian candidates dominated the press availability that followed. 

    Asked whether he could claim any of Herman Cain's supporters should Cain drop out of the race (and hours later, Cain suspended his campaign), Romney was hopeful.

    "I hope that they give us a good careful look, that they see the work we're doing and the commitment of our people and recognize that what America needs right now is a leader, and I hope that as they evaluate the various candidates they'll conclude that I'm the leader America needs," Romney said.

    Romney was also pressed repeatedly to comment on the surging Newt Gingrich, and to offer criticism of the former House speaker. But Romney demurred, saying only that there would be time to draw more distinctions later, but noting that their biggest differences were in their backgrounds.

    "I happen to think that the biggest difference between us is our life experience, and that that experience will be figured into people's consideration as to who should be the nominee," Romney said. 

    Following the rally, Romney hit the streets of Manchester, with a pack of reporters trailing him, to knock on doors and ask for votes. Although no one answered Romney's knock at the first three homes he visited, Romney remained in notably high spirits as more folks came out to say hello along the half-hour walk.

    Throughout the walk, Romney chatted casually -- and somewhat uncharacteristically -- with reporters about topics as varied as his Christmas plans (Iowa, New Hampshire or Massachusetts), his French speaking skills ("still pretty good"), and even the challenges of making conversation with strangers while campaigning -- a skill Romney is often criticized for lacking.

    "It's awkward to come up to people you don't know and start talking to them. I think probably having learned that with my dad back when I was just a teenager has steeled me to the rigors of a ... what can be awkward for some folks, of having someone come up and start talking to them. But you get over that," Romney told reporters as he walked down Chestnut Street. "I don't know any techniques. You just go up and say hello and hopefully strike it off. And by the way, there are always a few folks who are not happy to see you and let you know that. It's all part of the experience."

  • Paul says no to Trump, joins Huntsman in skipping debate

    Jim Bourg/REUTERS

    Republican presidential candidates (L-R) former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA), U.S. Representative Ron Paul (R-TX), Texas Governor Rick Perry, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, businessman Herman Cain, former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-GA), U.S. Representative Michele Bachmann (R-MN), and former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman stand at attentiond during the singing of the national anthem during the CNN GOP National Security debate in Washington, November 22, 2011. REUTERS/Jim Bourg

    NASHUA, N.H.--Ron Paul will not appear at the NewsMax debate moderated by Donald Trump because it is "beneath the presidency" and not worth his time, he told NBC News today. Paul joins Jon Huntsman who yesterday declined an invitation to the December 27 debate.

    "I didn't think it was worthwhile to go and I didn't think it was a real debate," Paul said after a town hall meeting in New Hampshire. Paul spoke to more than 150 supporters and undecided voters.

    In a statement, the Paul campaign questioned the seriousness of the debate format. "The selection of a reality television personality to host a presidential debate that voters nationwide will be watching is beneath the office of the Presidency and flies in the face of that office’s history and dignity," campaign chairman Jesse Benton said in a statement this morning.

    Slideshow: Ron Paul

    "Mr. Trump's participation as moderator will distract from questions and answers concerning important issues such as the national economy, crushing federal government debt, the role of the federal government, foreign policy, and the like," Benton added via email. "To be sure, Mr. Trump's participation will contribute to an unwanted circus-like atmosphere."

    Trump opted not to run for president in May after a period of flirtation with the idea.

    Paul -- who will participate in tonight's Fox News candidates' forum hosted by 2008 GOP candidate Mike Huckabee -- also cited Iowa-specific reasons for skipping the NewsMax debate. After he dropped out of the race for the White House, Trump bowed out of a keynote speech at a fundraising dinner hosted by the Manhattan County GOP in Iowa. He was eventually replaced by Rick Perry but not before extensive planning around his anticipated speech and printed invitations had been distributed.

    "I didn't think we should honor Trump because he dishonored the Republican Party out in Iowa by stiffing them," Paul said in New Hampshire today. "And they lost a lot of money out of it. I think he ought to apologize to the Republican Party of Iowa and see if he can help them out for the money they lost."

    The Paul campaign did leave the option open to later consider a debate appearance, but only if Trump apologizes to the Iowa GOP and "rectifies in full the situation."

    Last night, Jon Huntsman declared he also will not attend the NewsMax debate.

    "We have declined to participate in the 'Presidential Apprentice' Debate with The Donald," Huntsman spokesperson Tim Miller said. "The Republican Party deserves a serious discussion of the issues so voters can choose a leader they trust to defeat President Obama and turn our economy around."

    "We look forward to watching Governor Romney suck up to Trump with a big bowl of popcorn," Miller continued.

    GOP front-runner Newt Gingrich has confirmed he will attend, but the Romney campaign has yet to publicly accept or decline the invitation to the Trump debate.

  • Cain suspends campaign

    Herman Cain announced Saturday he is suspending his campaign for the Republican presidential nomination. This suspension comes after weeks of scrutiny over alleged sexual misconduct and accusations of an extramarital affair.

     

    Herman Cain said Saturday that he is suspending his bid for the Republican presidential nomination, choosing to end his campaign after weathering weeks of scrutiny over alleged sexual misconduct and accusations of an extramarital affair.

    "As of today, with a lot of prayer and soul searching, I am suspending my presidential campaign," Cain said at an appearance outside his campaign headquarters in Atlanta. "I am suspending my presidential campaign because of the continued distraction, the continued hurt caused on me and my family. Not because we are not fighters."

    Cain said he's launching a "plan B" of his public career, a new policy-oriented website called TheCainSolutions.com. He said he will endorse a Republican candidate for president "in the near future." His announcement could lead to the effective end to his campaign, but technically leaves open the option of reviving his bid for the presidency.

    "I am not going to be silenced, and I am not going away," he defiantly told disappointed supporters.

    SLIDESHOW: Herman Cain

    Cain's announcement nodded to the continued scrutiny that's surrounded his campaign since a media storm that began on Oct. 31, when POLITICO reported that the National Restaurant Association had settled sexual harassment claims brought by two women against Cain. The former Godfather’s Pizza CEO steadfastly denied the allegations, even as other women – some anonymously – emerged to make similar allegations against Cain. “The charges and the accusations I absolutely reject. They simply didn't happen. They simply did not happen,” the candidate said at a Nov. 8 press conference after Sharon Bialek, a former restaurant association official, publicly detailed harassment claims against Cain.


    “As far as these accusations causing me to back off and maybe withdraw from this presidential primary race … ain’t gonna happen,” declared Cain during that address.

    VIDEO: Cain denies allegations of sexual harassment

    On Nov. 28, an Atlanta woman told a FOX affiliate that she had engaged in a 13-year-long affair with Cain. Ginger White said their relationship had ended only recently, when Cain started to pursue the GOP nomination. Her claims took on an added degree of gravity after Cain acknowledged sending money, without his wife’s knowledge, to White. He maintained the two were merely friends, and had never engaged in a romantic relationship.

    Those allegations prompted Cain, who had defiantly pledged to stay in the race and had continually denied any wrongdoing, to take a breath and reflect on the direction of his campaign. He told senior staff on Tuesday that he was taking time to “reassess.” During that “reassessment” period, Cain and his top staffers sent mixed messages about whether that meant the candidate would drop out. The Cain camp then revealed a Friday meeting between the candidate and his wife, Gloria, the first since White made her allegations.

    Ahead of that meeting, Cain made this statement during a campaign stop: “Tomorrow in Atlanta I will be making an announcement. But nobody’s gonna get me to make that prematurely … Tomorrow we will be opening our headquarters in northwest Georgia where we will also clarify – there’s that word again, clarify – exactly what the next steps are.”

    Cain's wife appeared with him at the announcement, receiving chants of "Glo-ri-a!" from the crowd. Herman Cain said he was "at peace" with his wife, his family, and himself. 

    "I have made many mistakes in life -- everybody has. I made mistakes professionally, personally, as a candidate, in terms of how I run my campaign. And I take responsibility or the mistakes that I have made," he said. "But because of these false and unproved accusations, it has … had a tremendous painful price on my family."

    Cain spoke of his campaign mostly in the past tense throughout his speech, lashing out at the media for fueling the frenzy that became associated with his campaign.

    Cain’s decision to abandon his campaign marks a somewhat remarkable reversal of fortunes for what was, by all accounts, an unconventional campaign. Having never been previously elected to office, Cain surged to prominence in a fluid GOP primary season in part due to the strength of his “9-9-9” economic plan. The plan, which calls for a nine percent national sales tax along with nine percent flat taxes on personal and corporate income, became the cornerstone of his campaign.

    CARTOON SLIDESHOW: Herman Cain

    Texas Gov. Rick Perry’s stumbles in Republican debates this fall helped create an opening for Cain, who ascended to nominal frontrunner status by mid-October, when an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll found him leading the Republican field nationally, as the choice of 27 percent of Republicans. Cain’s national success appeared to translate to key primary states, too; a late October Iowa Poll conducted by the Des Moines Register found Cain vying for the lead in the state’s caucuses. (By comparison, a late November poll conducted for the Register found Cain’s support had plummeted to eight percent.)

    Cain’s rise had seemingly defied conventional political wisdom, considering the unusual way in which he managed his campaign. The candidate spent little time in traditional primary states like Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. Instead, Cain traveled across the U.S., making stops in states like Wisconsin or Ohio, which don’t host meaningful primary contests. And Cain’s decision to effectively put his campaign on hold this fall to pursue a book tour in the thick of the campaign raised eyebrows among political observers.

    VIDEO: Cain on "Meet the Press"

    During those trips, Cain committed other errors that contributed to rising doubts about the viability of his campaign. Iowa Rep. Steve King, an influential conservative in his state's Jan. 3 caucus, expressed that sentiment on Twitter: "Virtuous or not, declaring in or out, however we feel for him, Herman Cain's campaign is over."

    Cain had rather cavalierly said that he didn’t feel the need to understand the intricacies of foreign policy. (“We need a leader, not a reader,” he declared at a mid-November campaign stop.)  One particular meeting, with the editors of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, helped cement growing concerns about Cain when he awkwardly stumbled for an answer to a question about how he would assess President Barack Obama’s policy toward Libya.

    "President Obama supported the uprising, correct? President Obama called for the removal of (Moammar) Gadhafi. I just wanted to make sure we're talking about the same thing before I say, 'Yes, I agreed' or 'No I didn't agree,'" he said, before stopping himself and reconsidering his answer. 

    "I got all this stuff twirling around in my head," he explained.

    This post was last updated at 2:14 p.m.

  • Rare day in Iowa with no candidates campaigning

     

    DES MOINES, Iowa -- With just 32 days until Iowa's influential caucuses -- and with no clear frontrunner in the polls -- not a single GOP candidate for president is campaigning here today. Not one.

    Not overall frontrunner Mitt Romney, who finally does have ads on the air.

    Not the latest anti-Romney candidate to emerge, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.

    Not Herman Cain who is back in Georgia to meet with his wife amidst allegations of a long-term extramarital affair.

    Not Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who believes he is at his best when he is doing the very kind of hand-to-hand campaigning that Iowans value.

    Not even Texas Rep. Ron Paul, who has the potential to surprise here, or former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, the only candidate to have campaigned in each of Iowa’s 99 counties, or Michele Bachmann, whose fate rests with her finish in the Hawkeye State. (Only Bachmann and Gingrich held events in the state earlier in the week; Santorum comes Sunday before another couple candidate free days yet again.)

    “This cycle has definitely been different from previous cycles, and at this point nothing is surprising,” Iowa Secretary of State Matt Schultz told NBC News. He adds that he believes the race here is still wide-open heading into the final leg. “It will be a race that comes down to the wire here in Iowa."

    This cycle, candidates are relying more on TV ads, direct mailers, telemarketing calls, and the Internet to push their ground game in Iowa rather than the usual retail-style politics.

    Perry is frequently airing new ads in television markets across the state (a new one came out just today). Iowans receive literature in their mailboxes on a continuous basis from most candidates, with the exception of Gingrich who has not spent any money on ads in the state. And hundreds of calls are placed each day by campaign staff and volunteers asking voters to come out and caucus on Jan. 3rd.

    “TV ads, mailers and debates may help boost name ID and give a sense of comfort through artificially-inflated poll numbers,” said caucus veteran Tim Albrecht, who serves as Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad’s spokesman and is unaffiliated this cycle. “The true test of a candidates strength displays itself on caucus night, where Iowans will turn out for the person who takes the time to demonstrate, in person, why they should be the next president.”

    And with less then five weeks until the caucuses, some campaigns are still trying to lay roots in Iowa. The Gingrich campaign, for example, just opened its headquarters here three days ago and hired its fifth staffer today. Romney’s campaign in Iowa, while it has had 5 paid staffers actively working the state for months, also only recently opened its official headquarters here.

    Other campaigns have invested more resources in the first-in-the-nation caucus state: Bachmann employees 12 paid staffers here, Perry 10, Santorum 9, Paul 5 and Cain 4.

    With or without the candidates, campaign staff and volunteers are using other means to reach voters and garner support.

    “I think that the majority of the GOP candidates are doing a good job of staying in touch with Iowa caucus goers even when they're not in Iowa,” undecided caucus goer Becky Beach said.
     
    “The process is so long in Iowa, a voter trying to make a decision would have to have their head in the sand not to be able to follow all the candidates daily if they so choose,” Beach added. “ I think it's moving over to social networking and the 24/7 news cycle.”

    But typically, caucus goers do not reward those who spend little time in their state.

    “Candidates who fail to put in the time, energy and attention needed to turn out Iowans will find themselves scratching their heads on caucus night, but they shouldn't,” Albrecht said. “Time and again, caucus-goers have rewarded the candidates who take the time to visit, organize and organize some more.”

    Former Des Moines Register political reporter David Yepsen said candidate-free days in Iowa are to be expected.

    “Frankly, they are a chance for reporters and campaign staffers to get some other work done,” Yepsen told NBC News.

    “Time is the most precious resource a campaign has,” he said. “With the calendar this compressed and money hard to come by for some, the candidates simply have to be off in other states or in the money-centers getting refueled.”

  • Romney and Gingrich campaigns a study in contrast in N.H.

     

    MANCHESTER, N.H. -- With mere weeks until New Hampshire's primary, Mitt Romney and the surging Newt Gingrich's campaigns are a study in contrast.

    Romney, the former governor of neighboring Massachusetts and the longstanding favorite to win the nation's first primary, is a veteran operation whose structure is built squarely on experience, steadiness and New Hampshire roots.

    Gingrich, whose campaign is in the midst of a renaissance since having been all but written off this summer, has the wind at his back. His Granite State operation is younger, entrepreneurial and free-wheeling.

    With five weeks to go until the election, each campaign, which are separated by just a mile of light traffic on Manchester's main drag, share a single goal: buckle down, stay on top, survive and win.

    Gingrich's campaign is trying to capitalize on newfound interest in his rebounding campaign, driven in part by an endorsement by the influential New Hampshire Union Leader. The campaignjust  added its first paid staffer at the end of October; Over the past few weeks, Gingrich has hired eight staff members, opened a headquarters, and fanned out across the state to capitalize on new interest in Newt Gingrich.

    State director Andrew Hemingway is hiring their first set of field staffers, and brought on Carli Dimino, who will serve as their Hispanic outreach coordinator. Dimino drove to New Hampshire from Pennsylvania on a whim because she just wanted to help in any way she could, Hemingway said.

    Dimino's hiring is indicative of a larger organizational spirit, Hemingway explains. With little direction from their national staff, Hemingway and his team are rapidly building a structure to drive voter turnout on the Jan. 10 primary day.

    The challenge for Gingrich is to build on the new momentum, and not allow it to dissipate by the primary.

    One mile down Elm Street, the Romney campaign is keenly aware of the ongoing search for a "Mitt alternative" and is taking nothing for granted. The memory of losing the lead ahead of the 2008 primary is still fresh in their memory. This weekend, Romney himself and his surrogate-in-chief Tim Pawlenty will launch a major push for supporters using their well-oiled grassroots operation that the campaign calls "second to none."

    "We have an even stronger grassroots organization in 2011 than we did in 2007 and we've been able to retain the vast majority of the support we were able to build in 2007," spokesperson Ryan Williams told NBC News.

    This Saturday at an event entitled "Earn It with Mitt," Romney's campaign says they will knock on 5,000 doors, make 12,000 volunteer phone calls and send 500 volunteers out across the state. According to Williams, Romney has visited all 10 counties and done 17 town hall-style meetings while his campaign has knocked on 26,000 doors and made 200,000 supporter calls to date.

    Romney's advisers have the benefit of experience when it comes to running for president. Their 2012 campaign is leaner than the 2008 operation; Romney himself is deployed selectively, and he's focused the bulk of his effort on winning here, where he maintains a home. They hope an intense ground game will help stave off a reprise of 2008.

    "We have focused on running a traditional grassroots New Hampshire campaign," said Romney's New Hampshire state director Jason McBride.
    This Saturday, McBride explained, is "one of the many steps that Mitt Romney, the campaign, and its volunteers and supporters will take to earn the support of the voters in the run up to the New Hampshire primary."

    Gingrich's campaign, by contrast, cites signs of raw enthusiasm in the former Speaker's candidacy as a sign of their rise.

    "Stuff is just happening by themselves," Hemingway told NBC News. "You can't buy that. it doesn't matter what your organization -- that is the type of passion that's been tapped into.... It's kind of taken on a life of its own and it is kind of like a fire hose. But I don't think we are drinking from it, we are trying to point it in the right direction."

    But there are growing pains, too, associated with the campaign's works to quickly become operational. Two weeks ago, Gingrich's campaign submitted a list of delegates scrawled in sloppy handwriting to the Secretary of State's office and opted not to fill out the maximum 20 delegate spots and 20 alternates. Although only 12 delegates are required by the Republican National Committee and Gingrich's campaign surpassed that, the campaign's style was interpreted as messy and disorganized.

    In response, New Hampshire communications director Matt LeDuc sent out a rapid-fire statement yesterday. This morning, he followed up by sending supporters an unlikely list of direct email addresses for staffers in the state, including personal email contacts for a couple of their most senior advisors.

    "We want to make sure you know how to reach us, anytime," LeDuc wrote. "So go ahead, email us. We're probably up working anyway."

    Hemingway believes the bumps and bruises comes with the territory, and he is confident they will cement a base of supporters to help them fan out across the state that is critical to Romney's path to the nomination.

    "This is what I tell my staff every day: we can talk about all the national polls that we want, but the reality is that we are 10 points behind, in the fourth quarter and we just have to put our heads down and win over the next person that we talk to," Hemingway said.

    But winning against a well-organized Romney campaign machine in the midst of such a new surge will not be easy.

    "Probably this time last month, the interest in the Gingrich campaign in this state was probably something akin to a drip that was coming out of a kitchen faucet. Now it's something that's akin to a firehose going off," said Rich Killion, an unaffiliated New Hampshire-based political consultant who previously supported Tim Pawlenty.

    "Even with 40 days, we have a lifetime til this race gets off. Mitt Romney is strong but New Hampshire is always tough ground to close on. "[Voters] decide late and they decide late by habit. Newt Gingrich is being given an opportunity to audition to be the alternative," Killion said. "Others have failed at this becase of inability or inaction."

  • Cain won't preview tomorrow's announcement

    At a Town Hall today in Rock Hill, SC, Herman Cain said he will make a big announcement tomorrow to clarify his next steps.

     

    ROCK HILL, S.C. -- Speculation about the future of Herman Cain's presidential campaign will likely come to an end in less than
    24 hours, the candidate told supporters during a town hall here this afternoon.

    "Tomorrow in Atlanta, I will be making an announcement, but nobody's going to get me to make that announcement prematurely," said Cain."That's all there is to that.  So tomorrow  we're going to be opening our headquarters in Northwest Georgia where we will also clarify, there's that word again, clarify exactly what the next steps are."

    The future of Cain's campaign has been watched closely since Tuesday, when he told senior staffers that he would "reassess" his bid for the presidency.  On the trail this week, the former Georgia businessman has remained defiant in speeches, but has been less reassuring that his campaign will continue when speaking to press. He's consistently said that the decision will be made by Cain and his family.

    "My wife and family comes first. I got to take that into consideration. I don't doubt the support that I have," he said.

    Cain is traveling to Atlanta where he will meet with his wife face-to-face for the first time since a Georgia woman claimed to have had a 13-year affair with Cain.

    Earlier today, his campaign sent out an appeal to supporters asking to show their support to keep Cain in the race.  The the nearly 200 supporters gathered here enthusiastically cheered for the embattled presidential candidate, with one voter using the question and answer portion of the town hall to plead with Cain not to quit.

    Asked by a reporter after the event if he would drop out, Cain said only that he needed to speak with his

  • Trump to moderate GOP presidential debate

    Donald Trump tells NewsNation's Tamron Hall "I think we'll have a lot to discuss," regarding the debate he will moderate Dec. 27th in Iowa.

     

    Real estate mogul Donald Trump will host a debate for Republican presidential candidates in Iowa just days before the state's Jan. 3 caucuses.

    Trump spokesman Michael Cohen confirmed the details of a New York Times report to NBC News: Trump, the star of the reality show "The Apprentice," will moderate a debate on Dec. 27 in Des Moines, Iowa. The debate is being sponsored by the conservative magazine Newsmax.

    Cohen told NBC he had no list of confirmed candidates, and wasn't able to name the venue yet. He also stressed that it is not a "Donald Trump Debate," just that Trump would be moderating.

    Still, the debate keeps with the outsized role Trump has played in the primary process since ruling out running himself for the GOP nomination. Most of the other candidates in the race have met with Trump, though, who has continued to opine on the race -- and even flirt with an independent bid for the presidency.

  • Cain to make 'major announcement' Saturday

    Herman Cain's campaign told NBC News the presidential candidate will make a "major announcement" tomorrow in Atlanta. Andrea Mitchell reports.

    Alfredo Ortiz, a Georgia-based press secretary with the Herman Cain campaign, tells NBC News that Herman Cain will make a "major announcement" tomorrow in Atlanta at his new campaign office in DeKalb County.

    Ortiz would not allude to the nature of the announcement other than to say it is a "major announcement."

    Click here for a Herman Cain photo slideshow

    Cain has been the subject of media scrutiny for weeks, sparked by an Oct. 31 story in Politico reporting that the National Restaurant Association had settled sexual harassment claims brought by two women.

    On Nov. 28, an Atlanta woman, Ginger White, announced that she had engaged in a 13-year-long affair with Cain. The former Godfather's Pizza CEO acknowledged sending money to White, but insisted they were merely friends.

    He told senior staffers on Tuesday that he was taking time to “reassess” his campaign.

    The announcement follows the first planned face-to-face meeting between Cain and his wife, Gloria, since White came forward.

    Cain's campaign has pushed forward with business-as-usual in the meanwhile, soliciting donations from supporters, and launching new efforts, such as "Women for Herman Cain," an initiative spearheaded by his wife.

  • Perry ad in Iowa emphasizes Christian faith

    Rick Perry's campaign released a new ad Friday showcasing the Texas governor's religious faith to Iowa voters.

    Perry's campaign released a 30-second spot in which he emphasizes his Christian roots; the ad plays to socially conservative voters in Iowa who might impact the state's Jan. 3 caucus in Perry's favor.

    "When you run for president, you get a bunch of questions about your faith. People want to know what drives you, how you make decisions," Perry says in the spot. "Now some liberals say that faith is a sign of weakness. Well they're wrong. I think we all need God's help."

    Perry's evangelical faith has been a selling point for his candidacy. He hosted a national day of prayer in August, which in part stoked speculation that he might run for president after having initially said otherwise.

  • Inside the Boiler Room: Does Romney take Gingrich's rise in the polls seriously?

    Inside the Boiler Room NBC's Mark Murray and Domenico Montanaro debate how serious the campaign of Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney is taking GOP hopeful and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich's rise in the polls, and whether the Romney camp will now reconsider Iowa.

    Thanks to phinephancy-4252115 for the question! Keep an eye out for the next editions of Inside the Boiler Room and don't forget to post your questions for Mark Murray and Domenico Montanaro. You can also tweet us, @NBCFirstRead,@mmurraypolitics or @DomenicoNBC, or post on our Facebook page.

    Video edited and transcribed by NBC's Morgan Parmet. 

    TRANSCRIPT:

    MARK MURRAY: Welcome to the latest edition of inside the boiler room. I'm Mark Murray joined by my colleague Domenico Montanaro. Domenico, we have a question from phinephancy. This is phinephancy's first question, I think, inside the boiler room. How serious is the Romney campaign taking Newt Gingrich's rise in the polls? Will they now reconsider Iowa?

    DOMENICO MONTANARO: Well, we know they're reconsidering Iowa a little bit. They went up with their first TV ad. So they're actually going to play there a little bit. I think they're taking New Gingrich's rise a little bit more seriously than they were a week ago. You know we've started to see a back and forth over about two or three days. Newt Gingrich called Mitt Romney the former front runner.

    MARK MURRAY: Right. 

    DOMENICO MONTANARO: And Romney hit him back calling him a lifelong politician. Newt Gingrich hit him back. Romney hit him back. So, you know, I think it's going to be a really interesting next 30 days. 

    MARK MURRAY: Right, the only question is is this two man race going to stay? I mean remember it wasn't too long ago we thought we had a two man race between Rick Perry and Mitt Romney in August and September. Look how that ended up turning out. One other thing about Mitt Romney. He's actually going to have Chris Christie campaigning for him. I mean yes, there is a play going on for Iowa. They might not be all in, but this is now a significant contest and the stakes are very high.

    DOMENICO MONTANARO: They're like two legs in. 

    MARK MURRAY: Right. 

    DOMENICO MONTANARO: One other small thing, The Hill newspaper today had a blind item from a member of congress Republican saying Newt Gingrich's finger is always six inches away from the self-destruct button. 

    MARK MURRAY: (laughs)

    DOMENICO MONTANARO: So, you know, that's what a lot of people are talking about. If he's able to maintain the message discipline and he said himself he needs to be more disciplined. If he maintains that discipline, maybe he can be the guy over the next 30 days to compete with Romney head to head. 

    MARK MURRAY: We have about 30 days to go until Iowa.

    DOMENICO MONTANARO: We'll see.

    MARK MURRAY: We'll see. Thanks.

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