Despite weeks of controversy sparked by a Dallas pastor labeling Mitt Romney's Mormon religion a cult, a study released today shows that Americans are no more familiar with the presidential hopeful's religious beliefs now than they were in July.

The study, conducted by the Public Religion Research Institute, shows that only 42% of Americans can correctly identify Romney as a Mormon. That number is statistically unchanged since the group's last survey, conducted in July, when 40% of Americans said they knew Romney was a Mormon.

The only subgroup in the study to show significantly increased knowledge of Romney's religion since July was evangelical Protestants, whose knowledge of Romney's religious faith rose from 44% in July to 53% now.

Unsurprisingly, the study shows a correlation in which those more likely to be paying attention to the GOP primary are also more likely to know more about Romney's religion. Among Tea Party members and registered Republicans, knowledge of Romney's religion hovers above 50%, and in surveyed registered voters it holds at 49%.

With not one but two Mormons in this GOP presidential race (Jon Huntsman is the other), knowledge and acceptance of Mormonism, formally the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints, has been creeping up. In the latest NBC/WSJ poll, two thirds of respondents said they were comfortable with Romney's faith, and that it would not interfere with his decision making as president.

Beyond the political realm, Mormonism has taken a larger role in the cultural discourse of late as well. The success of the Tony-award winning musical "The Book of Mormon" by the creators of South Park, as well as a multi-million dollar ad campaign featuring a diverse cast and prominent Mormons like The Killers frontman Brandon Flowers, have raised awareness of the religion, in their own ways.

Mainstream news outlets have discovered Mormons, too - even in unlikely places like Brooklyn. Just this morning, the New York Times ran a feature story about Mormon style in among young people from BYU to Bushwick. Their findings, in summary: skinny jeans are ok, beards and tattoos, not so much.

Mitt Romney's showed flashes of testiness at last week's debate. It was the first time a national audience saw it, but that side of him has come through several times on the campaign trail this time around -- something that wasn't seen as much in 2007-2008.

Romney's raw reactions are reminiscent of New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, whose popularity with conservatives seemed to soar higher because of his contentious moments with voters. Christie considered a run himself, but opted against it and endorsed Romney.

But is Romney channeling his inner Christie -- or is this just how he reacts to being challenged?

There's a split on the interpretations of Romney's testy moments. Some, including the campaign, say the moments reflect strength. Others thought differently.

Republican voters may respond to the confrontational style in a primary, but will swing voters in a general election?

Romney campaign spokeswoman Andrea Saul responded this way in an email to First Read:

"These moments have been moments of strength for Gov. Romney -- he has shown his passion about the issues and made it clear that he is going to stand up for what he believes in and to defend his record from misrepresentations."

The statement pivoted to President Obama:

"While President Obama has created an economic disaster zone, yet still seems to think things are going well, Gov. Romney realizes that this campaign is about the big issues facing our country and understands what is at stake."

Is the economy picking up some steam?… Economy grows at rate of 2.5% in 3rdQ… Team Perry to limit debate participation after Nov. 9… Yesterday was a day of backtracks for Romney and Perry… Herman Cain: Disorganization Man?… And Connie Mack gets into FL Senate race. 

*** Is the economy picking up some steam? The most significant political story over the past few months -- at least as it relates to 2012 -- hasn’t been the latest developments in the GOP presidential field, or President Obama’s barnstorming through the country, or even the Occupy Wall Street protests (which have become more violent recently). Instead, it’s been the stalling economy, which began last spring (with the rising gas prices and the devastation in Japan). Today, there’s evidence that the economy is picking up some steam, at least for now. The Commerce Department says, per the AP, that the economy grew at a rate of 2.5% in the 3^rd quarter. By comparison, 1^st quarter GDP growth was at 0.4%, while 2nd quarter growth was 1.3%. "The big story is we're no longer on life support," said Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi financial economist Chris Rupkey, per CNBC’s Patti Domm. "We're not at stall speed of 1%, like we were in the first half of the year. Stall speed is where bad things can happen."

*** Perry to skip debates after Nov. 9? The fall debate season hasn’t been kind to Rick Perry, and his campaign is now suggesting he will limit his participation in future debates after the CNBC debate in Michigan on Nov. 9. “We’re about 60 days away from votes being cast,” Perry Communications Director, Ray Sullivan said on CNN, per Bloomberg. “The candidates need to spend time in Iowa doing those town halls and spending a lot more time with the voters, who oftentimes have the best questions and press the candidates the hardest.” Sullivan went on to say, “We’re taking each of these as they come, examining the schedule and examining the opportunities and the opportunity costs.” And Perry spokesman Mark Miner told Politico: "We said we would do Michigan but the primaries are around the corner and you have to use your time accordingly." If you've followed Perry's career closely and if you've read the "Eggheads" about the Perry way of doing this on the campaign trail, this shouldn't come as a surprise. Perry's folks believe in the retail campaign strategy; it's a Perry strength, one he's yet to be able to showcase which is why they want off the debate trail.

*** A day of backtracks: Yesterday’s news from the GOP campaign amounted to a day of backtracks. First, after declining on Tuesday to comment on Ohio's referendum on its collective-bargaining law, Romney apologized. "I'm sorry if I created any confusion in that regard," Romney said at a rally in Fairfax, VA yesterday. "I fully support Gov. Kasich's, I think it's called Question 2, in Ohio. Fully support that." (It’s called Issue 2.) Next, Perry walked back his birther comments yesterday. "I don't think I was expressing doubts," he said of his previous comments about the validity of the president's birth certificate in an interview with Tampa's Bay News 9 to be aired Sunday, per the St. Petersburg Times. "I was just having some fun with Donald Trump." Folks, neither candidate has had a very good week. Just read the paragraph again.

*** Disorganization Man: The New York Times is the latest to look at the disorganization inside the Cain campaign. “[I]nterviews with Mr. Cain’s former staff members, volunteers and supporters give a glimpse of a candidate who appeared to show ambivalence toward basic campaign management, which led to problems in hiring, scheduling, fund-raising and messaging.” The Times also has this nugget: “And then there was that e-mail to the staff about traveling in a car with Mr. Cain: ‘Do not speak to him unless you are spoken to,’ the memo said. ‘I found it odd,’ said a former staff member who liked to prep Mr. Cain for appearances while driving.” And be sure to read Dan Balz’s take on a Peter Hart-conducted focus group, which liked Cain but wasn’t sure he was ready to be president. 

*** On the 2012 trail: Cain (via satellite), Gingrich, and Santorum participate in the News Corp/College Board "Education & Election 2012" Presidential Forum in New York City… Paul attends a house party in New Hampshire… And Cain speaks at a Lincoln Day Dinner in Arkansas. 

*** Connie Mack gets into FL Senate race: There’s another Republican getting into the Florida Senate race, the Miami Herald reports. “Florida Congressman Connie Mack planns to enter the Republican race for U.S. Senate, adding a big name to a contest that has lacked drama for months. ’Connie Mack is running for the U.S. Senate. He is making calls. He is assembling a team. And he will have more to announce about the run in the weeks ahead,’ said David James, a senior adviser.” (Hat tip: Taegan Goddard.) Bill Nelson could be very vulnerable, but the current GOP field has been lackluster in fundraising and is not well known. Connie Mack, whose father with the same name served in the Senate for two terms, has the instant name ID to potentially put this race in play.

*** Thursday’s “Daily Rundown” line-up: White House Deputy Senior Adviser Stephanie Cutter on President Obama’s executive action push… Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) on his brewing fight with Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) over the Big 12’s plans for college football expansion… One of us (!!!) on reactions to Romney’s recent reactions and NBC’s Mike Isikoff on Romney’s big D.C. establishment fundraiser… Daily Beast/CNBC’s Fast Money Contributor Zachary Karabell on what Europe’s debt developments mean for the U.S… And more 2012 news with TIME’s Michael Scherer, National Journal’s Beth Reinhard, and former RNC Chairman Michael Steele.

*** Thursday’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports” line-up: NBC’s Andrea Mitchell interviews former White House Deputy Communications Director Jen Psaki, Texas Monthly’s Paul Burka, EU Ambassador Joao De Almeida, Rep. Allyson Schwartz, former Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell, Time’s Richard Stengel, Rep. Kevin Brady, and the Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza. 

*** MTP’s “Press Pass”: In his weekly “Press Pass,” NBC’s David Gregory interviewed Rep. Elijah Cummings (D-MD), who said this about Herman Cain: “I think the Tea Partiers like him because he has these fast snappy answers and they don’t want to be, you know they’ve been accused as being racists, and I think when they can vote for a Herman Cain and hear him say the things that he says they feel like, ‘Well, you know, I can, I support this guy and he’s and so he, he’s, it shows that I’m not racist and I’m supportive.’” 

Countdown to Election Day 2011: 12 days
Countdown to Iowa caucuses: 68 days
Countdown to Nevada caucuses: 79 days
Countdown to South Carolina primary: 86 days
Countdown to Super Tuesday: 131 days

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CAIN: Herman Cain, per NBC’s Andrew Rafferty, spoke in Corpus Christi, TX, at a Nueces County Republican Women dinner. About 900 people attended. “I don’t know how many of you saw that last debate. I didn’t realize that that bull’s eye on my back was that big. They came after me like I had talked about their mama.” More: “Back in the early 1990s when I was a businessman running Godfather’s Pizza, I had to fight HillaryCare and be an outspoken voice against HillaryCare During the passage of ObamaCare, I had to fight ObamaCare and he passed it anyway against the will of the people. So it seems that many of my years have been fighting some kind of Care – HillaryCare, ObamaCare, and now I have to fight RomneyCare to get the nomination.”

And on foreign policy, where he has stumbled, Cain said, “I don’t need to know the detail of every one of the issues we face.  We’ve got plenty of experts who can fill in the details.  But we need to have a philosophy as to how we are going to approach dealing with every nation on the planet that we have or might have a relationship with.”

National Journal reports: “Republican presidential candidate Herman Cain has collected over $680,000 in corporate director fees and stock-option exercises since the beginning of 2010, according to a just-released financial disclosure form. The paperwork also indicates that the former Godfather's Pizza CEO used some of his personal wealth to float his campaign a loan worth upwards of $500,000.”

PERRY: “President Barack Obama’s political machine is increasingly making common cause with Texas Gov. Rick Perry against a shared enemy: Mitt Romney,” Politico writes.

ROMNEY: Mother Jones has this story: "Walid Phares, the recently announced [2] co-chair of GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney's Middle East advisory group, has a long résumé. College professor. Author. Political pundit. Counterterrorism expert. But there's one chapter of his life that you won't find on his CV: He was a high ranking political official in a sectarian religious militia responsible for massacres during Lebanon's brutal, 15-year civil war."

“In recent weeks, Mitt Romney has given fresh life to the longtime political complaint that he lacks a core,” Boston.com’s Glen Johnson writes. “The criticism has been leveled anew both by rival Democrats and Republicans, who may be hyperbolic as they work to dethrone him as a GOP presidential front-runner. The consistency of the complaint, though, underscores a major challenge the former Massachusetts governor faces if he hopes to win his party’s nomination and unseat President Obama just over a year from now. Can voters still getting to know him grow to trust what he says?”

Karl Rove on FOX yesterday said of his backtracks on the Ohio law, per GOP 12: "I think he made a mistake yesterday by saying 'Oh, it's not up to me'. I think it was smart of him to recognize how problematic that was. .... Who didn't think about this issue when they knew they were going to Ohio and going to a phone bank where they were calling people on behalf of proposition five? This happens in a campaign, but it's problematic, because it adds to the narrative that he is not strong. The good news is, so far, he's stronger than the rest of the pack."

“Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney is leading the polls in all four early voting states, according to four polls released today by CNN/TIME/ORC International,” Boston.com’s Political Intelligence blog writes.

The Boston Globe: “In his second run for the White House, Romney is portraying his home state—and his own role in it—in a different light. Rather than showcase how hard he fought against liberal Massachusetts politicians, he cites how he was able to work with them to get things done. Rather than disparage the state’s political culture, he holds it up as an example of how bipartisanship should be conducted in Washington—and why he should be the one to make it happen.”

“Democrats on a special Congressional committee assigned to reduce the nation’s debt load on Wednesday made their first offer to Republicans based on earlier budget talks that ultimately collapsed,” the New York Times says. “A majority of the 6 Democrats on the 12-member panel threw their support behind a plan that they said incorporated some ideas discussed over the summer by President Obama and Speaker John A. Boehner.”

More: “The Democratic plan would trim much more, a total of $2.5 trillion to $3 trillion, through cuts in the growth of federal entitlement programs, including Medicare, and more than $1 trillion in new tax revenues.” 

The Washington Post: “Republicans quickly rejected that offer. Senior aides called the tax and stimulus provisions unacceptable. The GOP countered Wednesday with its own plan to tame the debt without raising taxes.” 

“Members of the so-called ‘super committee’ emerged in public today after weeks of closed-door meetings but did little to address growing doubts in the Capitol about their ability to agree on a major deficit-reduction plan,” the Boston Globe writes.

Liberal group Americans United for Change takes aim at Paul Ryan in a Web video for him yesterday deriding the “politics of division” and charging that President Obama is “sowing social unrest and class resentment.” The group asks, “Has Paul Ryan met Paul Ryan?” It links together his floor statements, and media interviews, including him saying the health care bill would raise taxes on small businesses and workers, cost 5.5 million jobs and would be a “government takeover,” and him agreeing that “America is on the road to serfdom,” and agreeing with Rick Perry that Social Security is a Ponzi scheme and Mitt Romney that it is run like a “criminal enterprise.”

Channeling a point we’ve made time and time again, the New York Times writes that Obama’s standing with African-American voters remains incredibly strong. “Despite a school of thought in Washington that Mr. Obama’s support among blacks has weakened because of the poor economy and a sense of unmet expectations, interviews and public opinion surveys show that his standing remains remarkably strong among African-Americans. The question now for the Obama campaign is whether it can energize those voters — many of whom were drawn to the polls for the first time in 2008 by the historic nature of his candidacy coupled with an aggressive registration program — even with a rate of joblessness among blacks that far exceeds national figures.”

CONCORD, N.H. -- Following a weekend of New Hampshire staff departures and controversy, Michele Bachmann made it official that she is running in the first-in-the nation primary. However, unlike most other candidates, she skipped the tradition of registering in person and instead filed by mail. Her paperwork and $1,000 check arrived this morning via express mail. Her filing is officially complete, Secretary of State Bill Gardner told NBC News this morning.

According to Gardner, 26 candidates have registered in total thus far for the primary -- 21 Republicans and five Democrats. The most Republicans ever to run in a Granite State primary was in 1992 with 25. With Texas Gov. Rick Perry filing Friday at noon and probably other lesser-known candidates yet to register, 2012 could be a record-breaking year for the GOP.

The only publicly declared candidate the Secretary of State's office has not yet heard from is former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson, who put out a media advisory saying he is campaigning in Arizona, Oct. 27-29. So, unless he files today in person or this week by mail, his name will not appear on the New Hampshire ballot. The deadline is Friday.

Republican operative Eric Woolson will be named Iowa campaign manager for the Michele Bachmann campaign, NBC News can confirm.

An announcement will go out tomorrow.

Woolson, who was hired about a month ago to lead the Bachmann campaign's communications in Iowa, was Mike Huckabee's 2008 Presidential campaign manager in Iowa. Sources stress this is a newly created role in the Iowa campaign office -- an indication, sources say, that the campaign is growing.

MANCHESTER, N.H. -- Newt Gingrich has hired an additional three full-time paid staffers to their New Hampshire campaign team in a continued effort to expand the former Speaker of the House's national campaign strategy, which comes in the midst of rising campaign contributions announced by Gingrich yesterday, sources tell NBC News.

The staffers joined Gingrich and recently hired New Hampshire State Director Andrew Hemingway yesterday when Gingrich filed for the New Hampshire primary. Their state headquarters will open next week in downtown Concord.

The campaign confirmed Alex Talcott will serve as the New Hampshire Coalitions Director. He recently worked on the Rep. Thaddeus McCotter campaign and is a public-relations principal at Vaura Consulting, LLC. He is a lawyer and teaches economics at Newbury College.

As reported yesterday, Matt LeDuc, who was the New Hampshire Director of Operations for Michele Bachmann, will serve as Gingrich's director of communications in the Granite State.

Pam Smith will be Gingrich's New Hampshire volunteer coordinator. Previously, she was a coordinator for NH 912 (a Tea Party-affiliated group) and worked on Congressman Frank Guinta's campaign.

Gingrich plans to open two more offices in New Hampshire in the near future and eventually expand into five across the state ahead of what is likely to be a January primary. The campaign says it will probably hire more staffers in the coming weeks. Major staff announcements are expected in Iowa soon as well.

The U.S. Supreme Court could decide as early as two weeks from now whether to take up the titanic legal battle over President Obama's health care law.

The court revealed today that the first of the challenges to reach the Supreme Court will come before the justices on Nov. 10th, during one of their regular weekly conferences where they decide, in private, which cases to hear. Legal experts are nearly unanimous in believing that the court will agree to hear the health-care issue during its current term, but there's no deadline for the justices to act on whether to do so. If the court agrees in November to take up the health care issue, it would probably be argued in March, with a decision by late June. 

If the court agrees on Nov. 10th to take any or all of the cases, we could hear that day, or we might hear the following Monday when court orders are typically announced. But contentious cases are often discussed several times before the court gets around to taking a vote on whether to grant them, so it could take a few weeks before we know.

The five cases ready for the justices to consider ask the court to decide these questions:

- Did Congress exceed its powers in requiring that virtually all Americans buy health insurance, and, if it did, must the entire health care law fall or can parts of it survive?

- Can a challenge to the insurance requirement be brought now, before the law goes into effect in 2014?

- Do new Medicaid requirements in the law impose excessive burdens on the states?

Republican presidential hopeful Herman Cain will have some star power when he begins his two-day swing through Alabama on Friday.

No, it’s not a Hollywood celebrity. It’s Internet celebrity Dale Peterson, whose straight-talking ads that aired during his run for Alabama Agriculture Commissioner went viral and reached an audience well beyond his home state -- though, he didn't win the race.

The (Mobile, AL) Press-Register is reporting that Peterson will introduce Cain at a campaign event in Tuscaloosa, AL, on Saturday.  Though Peterson’s campaign was unsuccessful, his ads -- in which he called his opponent “a dummy” -- have made him a popular figure, both on YouTube and in GOP speaking circuits.

Peterson endorsed Cain in June, and told The Press-Register, “He’s genuine,” and, “I’ve got a good sense about people — maybe you’d call it horse sense -- but he’s the real deal.”

He also said he has advised Cain not to lose his straight-talking style in light of new media attention and reportedly serves as chairman of Cain’s agricultural advisory committee. 

In response to comments made by activist Apostle Claver, who is black, saying, "It's the Democratic party that's the racists," during an event Cain spoke at an hour later and likely didn't hear, Cain's spokesman said, "Our campaign is all about promoting civil dialogue."

But it was Cain, who in 2005, wrote, "[C]ongressional Democrats do not want all Americans to drink from the same retirement fountains. They insinuate that we are not smart enough to ride in the front of the retirement bus with them. … At least with separate water fountains blacks and whites each had water to drink."

And he wrote of Social Security that it is "built-in discrimination," that "deceased black men essentially fund a large percentage of the retirement income of elderly white women," and he called it "immoral," "oppressive," and that it and the tax code impose "involuntary servitude."

He has also said during this campaign that "African Americans have been brainwashed" into voting for Democrats.

Here's the full post.

First, it was "no reason to think otherwise." Then it was, "I don't have a clue." Then it was "a distraction."

And on Day Four, it's finally, "I have no doubt."

After days of questions, Texas Gov. Rick Perry said unequivocally that he believes the president is an American citizen.

"I don't think I was expressing doubts," he said of his previous comments about the validity of the president's birth certificate in an interview with Tampa's Bay News 9 to be aired Sunday, per the St. Petersburg Times. "I was just having some fun with Donald Trump."

Asked if he believes President Obama is an American citizen, Perry responded, "I have no doubt about it."

Perry's flirtation with birtherism, which began Sunday in an interview published in Parade Magazine, resulted in at least a partial overshadowing of his rollout of a flat tax-based economic plan in Gray Court, S.C., yesterday. Perry implied that his questions about Obama's birth certificate were meant in "fun" during an interview with CNBC's John Harwood, but he also appeared to sympathize with Trump's skepticism that the president's birth certificate -- which he made public in an April press conference -- is real.

"I don't have a clue about ... what his birth certificate says," Perry told Harwood. "But it's also a great distraction."

But in the interview in Tampa, where Perry held a fundraising event Wednesday, the Texas governor dismissed the whole controversy as a joke.

"It's fun to... Ya know, lighten up," he said.

Perry also challenged his competitors to reveal other personal documents, including college transcripts. (Perry's recently published grades at Texas A&M reflected his academic struggles.)

"Let's lay out our income taxes," he said. "Let's lay out our college transcripts. Mine's been on the front page of the paper. So if we're going to lay out all these things, let's lay them all out.

Here's a partial transcript:

PERRY: "I don't think I was expressing doubts. I was just having some fun with Donald Trump. So I...."

ADAM SMITH, ST. PETE TIMES: Are you comfortable that he's an American citizen?

PERRY: Oh yeah. It's fun to.. Ya know, lighten up.

SMITH: So you have no doubt he's an American citizen?

PERRY: "I have no doubt about it. But here's the more interesting thing. Let's lay out our income taxes. Let's lay out our college transcripts. Mine's been on the front page of the paper. So if we're going to lay out all these things, let's lay them all out."

After declining to comment yesterday on Ohio's collective-bargaining law, Romney today said he apologizes for the confusion.

He said he fully supports Ohio Gov. John Kasich "110%."

"I'm sorry if I created any confusion in that regard," Romney said at a rally in Fairfax, VA. "I fully support Gov. Kasich's, I think it's called Question 2, in Ohio. Fully support that."

But yesterday while in Ohio, and standing on the steps of a building where inside local activists were making calls to gather support on the measure, Romney said, "I'm not speaking about the particular ballot issues. Those are up to the people of Ohio, but I certainly support the effort of the Governor to rein in the scale of government." He added yesterday, "I'm not terribly familiar with the two ballot initiatives, but I'm certainly supportive of the Republican party's efforts here."

The collective-bargaining law is on the ballot this November and, according to polls, is unpopular. But Romney expressed support for Kasich's efforts in a Facebook post in June.

"I think back on my website as early as April," Romney said today, "I laid out that I support Question 2 and Gov. Kasich's effort to restrict collective bargaining in Ohio in the ways he's described. So I fully support that. But what I was referring to was I know there are other ballot issues there in Ohio, and I wasn't taking a position on those."

But Romney's campaign was asked by NBC yesterday specifically about Question 2, and it also declined to comment on it outside of echoing what Romney would later say.

The other measure had to do with health-care mandates. That's the one Romney now contends he was talking about.

"I've said that should be up to individual states," he said today. "I, of course, took my state in one direction; they may want to go in a differnt direction. I don't want to tell them what I think they ought to do in that regard. That's up to them. It was with regards to that issue that I didn't want to make a commitment. And I don't even know what their Question 1 is, if there is a Question 1. I don't know what that one is. But with regards to Question 2, which is the collective-bargaining question, I am 110% behind Gov. Kasich and in support of that question.

Yesterday, rival Rick Perry went after Romney on Ohio, accusing him of "finger in the wind" politics.

This "say or do anything" narrative is one Romney is particularly vulnerable on. And it's one that Democrats hit Hillary Clinton on in 2007 after she hedged on whether she supported or opposed drivers' licenses for illegal immigrants. It took Clinton days to clarify. Romney made sure he did it the next day.

On MSNBC this morning, we map out the early states and who has the most at stake.

And for my parachute pants reference, here's what played just before my hit:

Romney doesn’t take a stand in Ohio on collective-bargaining rights … Perry goes after him for “finger in the wind politics” … Obama straddles line between campaign mode and not on Leno, strikes somber chord again at fundraiser, unveils student-loan initiative in Denver … Perry’s post-card politics … Cain leads in another national poll, but he’s selling books in Texas … Perry fifth… Romney’s big-bucks DC fundraiser.

*** Say anything? What hurt Hillary Clinton after that Oct. 30, 2007 debate wasn't her exact answer on drivers’ licenses for illegal immigrants. Rather, it was that the entire exchange (and the days after) reinforced a negative narrative about Hillary -- namely that she was willing to say or do anything to get elected as president. Similarly, Mitt Romney's rough day yesterday didn't have as much to do with his actual position (or non-position) on Ohio's anti-collective-bargaining law as it raised doubts about his conservative bona fides. To recap: On the day of a debate (moderated by one of us), on the day of a brand-new poll, and two weeks before the election, Romney walked in a call center for the Ohio GOP on Issue 2, and he refused to take a position on it, even though he's endorsed it before. It was an unforced error.

*** Having it both ways: We understand why Romney wanted to have it both ways. He wants to prove he's a conservative on fiscal issues, but he also wants to protect himself in the general in union-heavy states like Ohio and Michigan -- on an issue that labor is likely to win. And, not surprisingly, his GOP rivals piled on. "Mitt Romney's finger-in-the-wind politics continued today when he refused to support right-to-work reforms signed by Ohio Governor John Kasich -- reforms Romney supported in June,” Perry spokesman Ray Sullivan said in a statement. “Americans are tired of politicians who change their beliefs to match public opinion polls. Mitt Romney has a long record of doing this on issues like government-mandated health care and the Obama stimulus. Mitt Romney needs to realize that when you try to stand on both sides of an issue, you stand for nothing." Bottom line: Romney didn't make a lot of friends yesterday in Ohio, where Republicans are trying to win an uphill battle. So don't be surprised if he comes back to the Buckeye State to try to fix it. A new Quinnipiac poll out today shows Romney losing to President Obama 45%-41% and to Herman Cain in a GOP primary, 28%-21%.

*** Getting personal on collective-bargaining rights: As for last night's debate over Issue 2, both sides -- ex-Rep. Dennis Eckart (D) of We are Ohio (which supports repeal of the law curbing collective-bargaining rights for public workers) and state Sen. Keith Faber (R) of Building a Better Ohio (which wants to keep it) -- performed well. But you could see why the Building a Better Ohio folks are trailing in the polls. Democrats and the unions have been able to personalize the issue, arguing how the police, firefighters, and nurses will be affected. Also, Faber was unable to name any part of the law that may have gone too far. The public wants reforms, but it also doesn't want rigidity. The contest takes place less than two weeks from today.

*** Perry goes on air: Perry is going up with his first ad in Iowa today. The 30-second ad’s tone is upbeat and focuses on energy, per NBC’s Alex Moe. “As president, I’ll create at least 2.5 million new jobs,” Perry says. But that’s a pretty low bar, considering 14 million are out of work. It's a pace President Obama has been on since October 2010 (1.5 million jobs have been created since then. Prior to that, going back to February 2009, about 3.7 million were lost as a result of the near-financial meltdown). Over four years, 2.5 million jobs only averages just over 52,000 jobs a month. It's a fairly easy promise to keep. But does that qualify as bold?

*** Straddling the line: On The Tonight Show with Jay Leno, President Obama was asked if he’s been watching the Republican debates. “I’m going to wait until everyone is voted off the island,” he joked. “Once they narrow it down to one or two, I’ll start paying attention.” Yet, less than a month ago, Obama criticized the GOP field for not standing up for a gay soldier, who was booed at a debate. “You want to be commander in chief, you can start by standing up for the men and women who wear the uniform of the United States, even when it’s not politically convenient,” he said Oct. 1 at a dinner before the gay-rights advocacy group the Human Rights Campaign. The president is still trying to straddle the "I'm not in campaign mode" even as he is in "campaign mode.”

*** Laying out the stakes: The president struck a somber tone in at least one moment at another fundraiser: “We have lost our ambition,” he said at an event in San Francisco. “Our imagination and our willingness to do things that built the Golden Gate Bridge and the Hoover Dam and unleash all the potential in this country.” He also acknowledged mistakes and the less energy with him this time around. “I know I’m a little grayer, not as trendy... I was the new, new thing. We've had setbacks. I've made mistakes on occasion. Michelle reminds me of those frequently." But before critics pounce on the president for not believing in “American exceptionalism,” he also said, “[T]hat vision is still there. … That fundamental belief in the American people is still there.” And: “[A]merica is the greatest country around the world.” NBC’s Kristen Welker, who was on the ground at the speech, notes that the entire speech was not somber. The president is obviously in a tough battle for reelection and is trying to lay out the gravity of the stakes in 2012. And it just might be working. His campaign has already seen a million donors and he’s outraised the entire GOP field combined.

*** Another executive action: Today at 12:45 pm ET in Denver, he will announce another executive action, this time on student loans. According to administration officials, the President will announce a new "Pay as You Earn" program that brings federal student loan payments down to 10% of a graduate's discretionary income and forgives all of their debt after 20 years of payment, NBC’s Shawna Thomas reports. A similar program was already on the books for 2014, but now it will be applicable to next year’s graduates. The administration says this program could aid 1.6 million people. And for people who have two or more of certain types of federal student loans, they'll have a six-month window next year to consolidate them into one loan, therefore lowering the interest rate and making repayment a little less confusing. The White House says about 6 million students and recent graduates could take advantage of this and it could reduce their interest rate by up to 0.5%.

*** Post-card politics, can it deliver? In unveiling his 20-20 optional flat-tax plan, Rick Perry brought with him a prop – a post card. In fact, he held up it up or said “post card” nine times, twice during his speech announcing his plan and seven times in a press conference in the afternoon. (The post card was a folded-over sheet of paper with an income tax form on it that he says is all you need to do your taxes.) But with yet another national poll showing him fading (at just 6% in a new CBS/New York Times poll, behind Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul, with Herman Cain leading), Perry is coming out swinging. In two days, in addition to questioning the president’s birth certificate (which he dismissed as a distraction yesterday), he hit Cain on 9-9-9, called Romney a “fat cat” whose plan just “nibbles around the edges,” and went after Romney on the Ohio ballot measures.

*** DC GOP establishment coalescing around Romney? Romney and some of his top congressional supporters are gathering this morning (starting at 8:00 am ET) at the Capitol Hill offices of the American Trucking Association for a power breakfast fundraiser co-hosted by a lineup of Washington’s most influential lobbyists, NBC’s Michael Isikoff reports. An invitation for the event – obtained by NBC News -- provides a glimpse into how the capital’s Republican power figures are coming together behind the Massachusetts governor despite his less than commanding position in the polls. “It’s the Washington establishment coalescing behind him,” said one lobbyist who asked not to be identified about the trucking association fundraiser. “What this means is all the guys talking to their clients and their corporations and telling them, ‘Mitt is the guy.’” After the fundraiser, Romney does an event with the Fairfax County, Virginia GOP.

*** Wednesday’s “The Daily Rundown” line-up with guest host Chris Cillizza: Rep. Karen Bass (D-CA) on President Obama’s West Coast swing and the Democrats’ economic message for 2012… one of us (!!!) on the latest in Perry vs. Romney… Cook Political Report’s David Wasserman and Rothenberg Political Report/Roll Call’s Nathan Gonzales on the latest redistricting developments… more 2012 news with Washington Post’s Perry Bacon, National Journal’s Reid Wilson and syndicated columnist Cynthia Tucker.

*** Wednesday’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports” line-up with guest host NBC’s Savannah Guthrie: White House adviser Melody Barnes on the president’s student-loan action, DCCC Chairman Rep. Steve Israel (D-NY), and the Washington Post’s E.J. Dionne.

Countdown to Election Day 2011: 13 days
Countdown to Iowa caucuses: 69 days
Countdown to Nevada caucuses: 80 days
Countdown to South Carolina primary: 87 days
Countdown to Super Tuesday: 132 days

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A CBS/New York Times poll released last night showed Cain up 25%-21% over Romney, with Perry fading all the way to fifth with just 6%. That’s down from 12% at the beginning of the month and 23% in September. Newt Gingrich is up to double digits at 10%. Ron Paul’s behind him at 8%.

But where was Cain yesterday? Signing books and giving a speech in Le Marque, Texas. He remains in Texas for an event in Corpus Christie. Texas’ primary, by the way, isn’t until March 6^th.

The Washington Post: “At a moment when the fragility of the economy ranks at the top of American concerns, sharp differences have begun to emerge in how the leading GOP presidential contenders would solve the problem — illuminating not only a diversity in approach, but a striking contrast in the candidates’ governing philosophies.”

GINGRICH: The Boston Globe reports the Gingrich campaign hired his first New Hampshire staff and plans to open five offices in the Granite State, hoping to bring the candidate “back from the brink.” This comes as Gingrich announced his campaign fundraising totals this month surpassed the amount he raised in the entire third quarter, per NBC’s Jo Ling Kent and Alex Moe.

HUNTSMAN: He said last night at George Washington University in DC, per NBC’s Matt Loffman: "My good friend Rick Perry talked about a flat tax today.  I'm okay with a flat tax, but you know what? For Rick, it's an option because he still keeps the old system.  So if you're gaming the tax system based upon loopholes and deductions, you're going to keep gaming the system.  And all I'm saying, the tax system of yesterday, it's done.  It's gone.  We're phasing everything out."

PERRY: In a new web video released today, Perry says he will create at least 2.5 million new jobs.

Per GOP 12, on O’Reilly last night on FOX, Perry didn't just say that he's made mistakes in the debates, he actually said that the debates themselves were mistakes.

ROMNEY: NBC’s Garrett Haake reports Rep. Mark Amodei of Nevada will endorse Mitt Romney, giving the former Massachusetts governor both of Nevada’s GOP congressmen, and their lieutenant governor.

SANTORUM: “As Herman Cain’s star appears to be declining, there is already media speculation on who will be the next ‘it flavor’ of the 2012 race,” GOP 12’s Christian Heinze writes.

House GOP Budget Chairman Paul Ryan (R-WI) will give what is being billed as a major address about the politics of division in America, NBC’s Luke Russert reports. It is meant to be interpreted as a kind of GOP response to the campaign-style events that President Obama has been engaged in over the last few weeks.

Ryan is the GOP's strongest policy wonk, but this speech reads more like a story than a math text book. Example: "Well, Warren Buffett gets the same health and retirement benefits from the government as his secretary,” he will say according to prepared remarks shared with NBC. “But our proposals to modestly income-adjust Social Security and Medicare benefits have been met with sheer demagoguery by leading members of the President's party."

A Ryan aide says his intention is to “directly confront President Obama's attempt to divide Americans, and explain why raising hurdles to success and stifling upward mobility is not only bad policy, but also antithetical to our timeless principles; encourage President Obama to take another look at reforms in the House-passed budget to reduce government subsidies for those who are already successful; to join the growing bipartisan consensus on tax reform that is simple, fair and competitive; and to make good on his promise to unite Americans; expose the real class warfare that alienates the American people from their government: a class of bureaucrats and crony capitalists trying to rig the rules, call the shots, and preserve their place atop society; advance a principled, pro-growth alternative to the President's path of debt, doubt, and decline.” And: “Urge conservatives not to shrink from the President's predictable attacks, not to play it safe, but to advance an agenda that helps restore the promise and prosperity of our exceptional nation.”

Mitt Romney and some of his top congressional supporters are gathering Wednesday morning at the Capitol Hill offices of the American Trucking Association for a power breakfast fundraiser co-hosted by a line up of Washington’s most influential lobbyists.

An invitation for the  event -- obtained by NBC News -- provides a glimpse into how the capital’s Republican power figures are coming together behind the Massachusetts governor despite his less than commanding position in the polls.

“It’s the Washington establishment coalescing behind him,” said one lobbyist who asked not to be identified about the trucking association fundraiser. “What this means is all the guys talking to their clients and their corporations and telling them, ‘Mitt is the guy.’”

The breakfast event is part of a quick D.C. buckraking tour for Romney that is expected to rake in over $500,000. On Tuesday night, Romney swung by the home of technology executive Bobbie Kilberg for a fundraiser whose guests included Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell, chairman of the Republican Governors Association (and often mentioned as a possible vice presidential candidate.)

Among the congressional co-hosts for the Wednesday event are several top GOP leaders who are now backing Romney, including House Oversight and Government Reform chair Rep. Darrell Issa, Armed Services Committee chair Buck McKeon, Intelligence Committee chair Rep. Mike Rogers, Sens. Roy Blunt of Missouri and Orrin Hatch of Utah. Also on the list is freshman Arkansas Rep. Tim Griffin, a protégé of former Karl Rove who recently endorsed Romney and agreed to head up his campaign in Arkansas.

But even more interesting are the twelve D.C. lobbyists are also co-hosting the event: Among them: superlobbyist Wayne Berman (a national finance co-chair of the Romney campaign) and his partner at Ogilvy Government Relations Drew Maloney (clients include the American Petroleum Institute, Chevron and Verizon), Jeff Choudhry of the Nickles Group (Eli Lilly, Walmart, Comcast) , Philmore Anderson of Navigators Global (AT&T, General Motors) and Mark Isakowitz of Fierce, Isakowitz (Coca-Cola, Apple, American Gaming Association) and Ron Kaufman of Dutko Worldwide (Allergan, American Pacific and In Situ Oil Sands Alliance.)

Why the American Trucking Association office? Its convenience, explained First Read’s lobbyist source. Its right off Capitol Hill -- easy for members and next door to the Republican National Committee’s Capitol Hill Club. (The trucking group’s president is Bill Graves, a former governor of Kansas.)

And next week, Romney has what may be his biggest Wall Street fundraising yet -- a mega event at the Grand Hyatt hotel with over 100 co-hosts, including many from Wall Street investment and banking firms.

By NBC's Jo Ling Kent and Alex Moe

CONCORD, NH and DES MOINES, Iowa-- While filing papers for the New Hampshire primary Tuesday, Newt Gingrich announced his campaign fundraising totals this month alone have surpassed the amount raised in the entire third quarter.

"As of today, [we] raised more money in October than we raised in the entire last quarter.  And we have more donors as of 2 days ago than we've had all the last quarter," Gingrich said.

Campaign spokesman R.C. Hammond confirmed to NBC News that Gingrich "surpassed the $800,000 mark today." According to the campaign, they have received 11,200 donations this month at an average of $75. Three out of four donors are first-time contributors.

This comes after Herman Cain said he'd been raising $1 million a week since Oct. 1. Gingrich's team gave no indication of how much exactly they've raised, just that it was more than the $808,000 it took in from July to September.

"There was a long stretch where we didn't have much resources and a lot of people thought we were dead," Gingrich told reporters.

Gingrich - who recently expanded his staff and hired a New Hampshire state director, Andrew Hemingway - also hired a former Michele Bachmann staffer. Matt LeDuc recently left the Bachmann campaign in the Granite State during the staff exodus this week, Hemingway confirmed to NBC News today.

The former House Speaker called this an "upward swing that gives us the resources to be more competitive" across the country. The Gingrich campaign's Iowa headquarters will be officially opening in the coming weeks.

"If we continue to improve at this pace, I think we'll be able to run a full-blown campaign and be totally competitive in terms of advertising and other things by the time we get to early January," Gingrich said.

“Money translates into ground game and ground game is important in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina,” Hammond said. The addition of paid Iowa staffers is forthcoming.

Gingrich also declared his commitment to competing in the New Hampshire primary, arguing that front-runner Mitt Romney will face a challenge in the state's contest despite the former Massachusetts governor's strong poll numbers that put him in a double-digit lead in the state.

"I do not believe that Governor Romney has a lock on this state," Gingrich said. "The governor has a strong lead here, but the campaign has only begun in terms of ideas and issues and drawing contrast." 

Gingrich is polling nationally at 8 percent, according to a recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

When asked why he felt momentum in his campaign, Gingrich credited his recent debate performances and criticized his fellow candidates.

"I do think that bickering is destructive for the Republican Party," he said of the debates. "I think that it diminishes the respect people have for the process..I think it's bad for the party."

The high-profile Massachusetts Senate race is already getting a significant TV ad buy. The environmental group, the League of Conservation Voters, is going up with a $1.8 million broadcast and cable ad buy in the Boston media market, according to a source with the group.

The ad accuses incumbent Republican Sen. Scott Brown of having "gone Washington" and that he "hasn’t voted a single time for the environment since he’s been in Washington, which is something we’re pretty sure his constituents are going to be surprised to hear," the source said.

AP

President Obama (left) during a taping with late-night talk-show host Jay Leno Tuesday.

On tonight’s episode of The Tonight Show with Jay Leno, President Obama, asked whether he’s watching the GOP debates, he invoked a reference that is more 2000 than 2011.

"I'm going to wait until everybody's voted off the island," the president quipped, invoking the reality show "Survivor." "Once they've narrowed it down to one or two, I'll start paying attention."

In a more serious part of the interview, according to excerpts released, Leno asked the president about former Libyan leader Moammar Khaddafy’s death. President Obama said his demise should send a message to other dictators around the world.

“This is somebody who, for 40 years, has terrorized his country and supported terrorism," Obama said. "And he had an opportunity during the Arab Spring to finally let loose of his grip on power and to peacefully transition into democracy. We gave him ample opportunity, and he wouldn't do it.” 

The president continued, “You never like to see anybody come to the kind of end that he did, but I think it obviously sends a strong message around the world to dictators that … people long to be free.” 

According to pool reports, the president’s Tonight Show taping lasted for 25 minutes, and he will be seen in three segments. It airs tonight on NBC.

AP

Republican presidential hopeful Rick Perry holds up his post-card sized version of the tax form he says Americans would fill out if his 20-20 plan were enacted.

Herman Cain’s made a career out of catchy slogans. 9-9-9 is just the latest for the former motivational speaker. Rick Perry may be trying to take a page out of the gimmicky playbook and adding a prop -- the post card.

“That’s all you need,” Perry said holding up a folded over sheet of paper, the size of a post card. On it, an income tax form, he says is all that would be needed to do your taxes if his 20-20 optional flat-tax plan is passed.

“How many people would rather have the old system in place?” he asked rhetorically, before holding up the paper again. “Let’s do it on a post card; let’s do it this way.”

Swiping at Cain, he said his plan wouldn’t include a value-added tax, or a sales tax. “That’s the difference right there,” Perry said, referring to 9-9-not-a-pizza-9. “This post card is the way to do it.”

He added, “This is the way to go” again holding up the paper.

And holding it up one more time, he said, “We’re going to be talking about things like this.”

In all today he said “post card” or held up the paper nine times, seven just at this afternoon’s news conference.

NBC’s Matt Loffman and Morgan Parmet contributed to this report.

There is a glimmer of bipartisan agreement in a perpetually divided DC. 

Today the Obama administration released two statements, saying the administration agrees with two (yes, two) of the bills Republicans are poised to bring to the House floor this week.

The first is a bill that repeals a 3% withholding on some payments that the government makes to private contractors. The 3% withholding rule, which was signed into law years ago, has been postponed multiple times. 

Repealing this law is a part of the President’s American Jobs Act, and it’s listed as one of the points of agreement the House Republicans wrote about in a letter to the President back in September.

The second bill lays out how to pay for the first bill.

“The effect of the repeal of the withholding requirement would be to avoid a decrease in cash flow to these contractors, which would allow them to retain these funds and use them to create jobs and pay suppliers,” explains the OMB.  

The issue of the 3% withholding has been a political football for the last few weeks, with the Senate voting down a repeal because Democrats didn’t agree with how the Senate Republicans wanted to pay for it. And last night, the speaker's communication’s office sent around an email basically daring the White House to oppose their version of the bill.

If the bills pass the House this week, the next narrative on this issue could be an odd one -- where the House and the White House are aligned against a Senate that may agree with the policy, but is notoriously slow to act.

Only 28 days stand between the deficit “Supercommitte” and the looming deadline of Nov. 23rd, leaving some worried that the time constraint may make a deal harder to achieve.

"Time is short. That doesn't give you a lot of confidence," House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D-MD) told reporters today, "But the reports that I have received from our three [members of the committee] is that there is an honest effort."

Doubts about whether a deal will be struck by the deadline are beginning to rise, with Hoyer stepping away from a generally positive tone he has held before. 

"I'm not optimistic,” he said today. “I'm hopeful.”

When pressed if he was confident that a deal would be met, he made sure to clarify his opinion. 

"Did I say I was confident?" Hoyer asked reporters.

"You said you were hopeful," a reporter said.

"Hopeful is not confident," Hoyer responded.

The Supercommittee has been tasked with achieving $1.5 trillion in cuts as part of the debt limit deal reached in August.  If at least $1.2 trillion in cuts is not reached, a "trigger" will be pulled which will result in just under $1 trillion in across the board cuts to defense and entitlements.

"Obviously there is a strong constraint of time," Rep. John Larson (D-CT) explained to reporters today, "but a great opportunity here." 

Larson hinted to the current Congressional calendar as need for concern. 

If Congress continues with its current schedule, there are only five days in which both the House and Senate will be in session at the same time between now and the Nov. 23rd deadline. Members of the Supercommittee have been meeting during recesses the past weeks, so the lack of overlap is not necessarily a cause for panic, but it does create logistical barriers.

Democrats in the House continue to push for a "big deal" that reaches somewhere in the vicinity of $4 trillion, and falls within the guidelines of previous deficit reduction groups that have tried, but failed, to achieve that level of cuts in the deficit.

"I think it's absolutely essential that we do so, that we succeed in producing a product that is a big deal and not a small deal," Hoyer said. "If we do a small deal we'll have to revist that."

Republican Supercommittee co-Chair Rep. Jeb Hensarling, who has repeatedly said that "nothing is off the table," says he is "encouraged" that they will be able to reach a consensus.

"I remain encouraged that the members of the Joint-Select Committee know how serious the situation is, and I believe they are all committed to achieving the goal," Hensarling told reporters today. "The report is due at midnight on November 22^nd, and we still have plenty of time to make that."