NBC News Justice Correspondent Pete Williams joins Mark Murray and Domenico Montanaro to discuss the anticipated time frame for the Supreme Court to hear the case regarding health care reform.

Transcribed by NBC's Jordan Fraiser.

TRANSCRIPT:

DOMENICO MONTANARO: Alright Mark, well we have another question from DaNoid, another loyal commenter and he says -- I don't know what my blog handle would be anyway, but a, -- "What is the anticipated timeframe for the Supreme Court to hear the case regarding health care reform and what can either side do to accelerate or delay a review by the Supremes?"

MARK MURRAY: Wow, that's a great question, and in fact for more information on that we're going to go to our justice correspondent Pete Williams who knows everything that you need to know about the U.S. Supreme Court, Pete take it away.

NBC NEWS JUSTICE CORRESPONDENT PETE WILLIAMS: Well, first we don't know whether the Supreme Court will take up the health care case, though it seems very likely it will.  If it does, it probably would not be aruged until late February, because the court's oral argument calendar is pretty much filled up until then. Now, in a complicated case like this, the court's decision would probably come at the very end of the term, that would be the last week of June. So far, none of the parties in these health care cases have asked the court to put this on a fast track - not the Obama Administration, not the states or business groups who are challenging the law. So we'll assume it would happen on the kind of schedule that I just mentioned.  Now I suppose we have to consider the possibility that the Supreme Court might actually take this case and then decide that it's too soon to get to the crux of the matter -- whether it's unconstituional to require virtually all Americans to buy health insurance.  Some lower courts have said any such challenge would have to wait until that provision actually kicks in, in 2014. But the Justice Department and the opponents of the law will urge the court not to put that off and decide the big question and those procedural issues all at once. 

DOMENICO MONTANARO: Well thanks Pete, we really appreciate that.  You know, Mark, I mean it really is an important distinction, the fact that we have a lot of time to until this election, health care has been a real, you know, big issue and the administration had a decision to make on whether or not they would do this now, wait until next year.  Supreme Court takes it up-- what do you think winds up happening here?

MARK MURRAY: You know Domenico, I actually think this is a savvy move by the Justice Department and the Obama Administration, so even if they end up losing this fight, so say the Supreme Court in a 5-to-4 decision, the Robert's Court knocks down, … they hold the hearings this term but then they have their decision some June of 2012.  Well the Robert's Court knocks it down, well then there's a decision really to fire up the Democratic base.  We've already seen after the Citizens United decision, the Democrats don't like this Robert's Court and so the Obama Administration could actually kind of turn this into getting their folks fired up.  On the flipside, if somehow the Obama people end up winning this, then that's actually a shot in their arm. So in a way, you could actually look at it, it's win-win.  Now of course, it would be a huge blow to President Obama's historical legacy, for this to go down, but at least short-term politics this could be a win-win situation.

DOMENICO MONTANARO: Well it could be, but the other part of this though, you know, I know there was one election law blog post which made this point that Obama could run against the Robert's Court again, but does that appeal to independents or moderates to say, you know, look at the Supreme Court, this was a wrong decision, it made a bad--you know, I think there might be a lot of people who would look at it as whining, and they would think you know, yes it would fire up the base, it might help with that, but there's going to be some damage control that the administration would need to do if they are to lose this.  But if they were to win a couple of months before, Obama could say, well let's not even talk about this anymore guys, it's settled law.

MARK MURRAY: Right.  Well look it's going to be a great story on top of everything.  It's going to be a story we're going to be following, it's certainly one Pete's going to be following too.

Congress returns Monday from its recess last week to resume debates on spending and trade, all while a bipartisan group of 12 lawmakers from both chambers continues its work on addressing mounting U.S. debt.

The highest-profile item facing the House is set to hit the floor on Tuesday, when lawmakers in that chamber are scheduled to formally vote on an extension of government spending through mid-November. After a nearly-empty House agreed in a procedural vote last week to extend spending for a week, the GOP-held chamber will vote again on the deal negotiated late last month in the Senate to avert a shutdown and extend funding for disaster aid. While the package is expected to win bipartisan support, Republican leaders are mindful of the threat of losing votes from their own members, an occurrence which led to the initial failure of a similar spending measure last month.

Otherwise, the House is set to vote on a variety of bills to loosen regulations, particularly environmental and energy restrictions. Committees will examine the effects of the new Wall Street reform law, the Obama administration's immigration policies, and the prospects for a balanced budget amendment to the U.S. Constitution.

The Senate will look this week at approving a series of President Obama's nominees to judgeships and administrative positions, but the biggest vote could come Monday evening, in a procedural vote on legislation to address Chinese currency manipulation, a bill with rare bipartisan support. That debate has political overtones for 2012, particularly in states with manufacturing sectors that have been hardest hit by the government of China's efforts to keep its currency undervalued. That debate also pairs with a larger debate over free trade initiatives lingering before the Senate.

On the committee level, senators will listen to testimony about how to reform the budgeting process and options for tax reform. A Thursday hearing on that latter topic, by the Senate Finance Committee, comes against the backdrop of continued negotiations by the so-called "supercommittee," the panel established by August's debt ceiling deal to find $1.5 trillion in new savings from the budget. Montana Sen. Max Baucus, the chairman of the Finance Committee, will be listening particularly intently at that hearing, since he's one of six Democrats who sits on that supercommittee. That group of lawmakers is additionally expected to increase the pace of its meetings, convening each day this week.

COLUMBIA, S.C. -- Blaming Florida's primary selection committee for creating "chaos" in the primary calendar, South Carolina GOP Chairman Chad Connelly announced that the Palmetto State will hold its primary on Saturday, Jan. 21st, 10 days before Florida's on the 31st.

"We will hold our primary on a date that not only benefits the citizens of South Carolina and maximizes our voters' time with the candidates but also in a way that will benefit Republican voters all across America," Connelly said.

This most likely means that the Iowa and New Hampshire contests take place in early and mid-January.

He said 10 days was enough time for candidates to invest in South Carolina's relatively small media market, but added that the compressed calendar would harm his state party's fundraising efforts and voter's chances to meet the hopefuls.

"I lose a month of fundraising time," he complained. "We lose a month of people getting to know these candidates."

But Connelly insisted that candidates would not skip South Carolina to spend more time in Florida.

"Any candidate who ignores our state does so at great peril," he said.

Connelly also called for the Republican National Committee to strip Florida's delegates from the Republican National Convention and to keep intact all delegates in South Carolina and the rest of the early states (Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada), who will have to move their primaries up to January, against RNC rules, because of Florida's move.

He also said conversations with the leaders in the other three early states have indicated to him that a December primary will not happen -- though NBC's Jo Ling Kent reports New Hampshire's Secretary of State Bill Gardner, who has unilateral control over the Granite State's primary date, continued to float December as a possibility. Connelly also said South Carolina will be holding a presidential debate in the days leading up to the primary, but that a date had not yet been secured.

Perry’s bleeding continues… Raising (and lowering) Herman Cain… A decision in the next 48 hours for Christie?... How Rudy Giuliani’s unsuccessful ’08 run could influence Christie’s ultimate decision… Romney the revenue raiser… Romney, Gingrich, and Paul campaign today in New Hampshire, while Bachmann and Santorum stump in Iowa… Obama camp targets GOP field in memo… And the RGA’s bank-shot TV ad against Tomblin.

*** Perry's bleeding continues: Just when Rick Perry was coming up with a stronger answer on his immigration vulnerability, just when he was starting to show progress in New Hampshire, and just before he might have some good news to announce (his 3^rd quarter fundraising report), comes another damaging story for the Texas governor. As the Washington Post reported over the weekend, a racial epithet had been displayed at a hunting camp that he and his family had leased. The story got additional legs when Herman Cain, the only African American in the 2012 GOP field, piled on. “I think that it shows a lack of sensitivity for a long time of not taking that word off of that rock and renaming the place," Cain told ABC yesterday. "It's just basically a case of insensitivity." This, of course, is now the second time that Cain has elbowed Perry; last week he told CNN that he wouldn’t be able to support the Texas governor if he won the GOP nomination. Just like Mike Huckabee did everything he could to stick it to Romney in ’08, Cain appears to be doing that to Perry. And it benefits only one person: Mitt Romney. 

AP

Republican presidential candidate Texas Gov. Rick Perry in Hampton, N.H., Saturday, Oct. 1, 2011.

*** The Old South narrative: If it wasn’t for Cain, Perry’s campaign would have played the “liberal media” or “MSM” card, but Cain made that reaction harder to sell. This story also hurts Perry in the larger “is he electable?” narrative. The Republican Party is a Southern party, but can it come across as “Old South” and win national elections? George W. Bush sold himself as “New South.” And Bush 43’s Northeastern background of sorts (Connecticut schooling) also meant he didn’t actually grow up in the Old South. Perry grew up in the Old South.

*** Raising (and lowering) Cain: After his straw-poll win in Florida, Cain is getting a second look from conservative opinion-makers. The Wall Street Journal's Daniel Henninger has called Cain “a credible candidate” who “deserves a serious look,” while Michael Barone now labels him “a contender.” And over the weekend, Cain won another straw poll, this one sponsored by the National Federation of Republican Women. One reason why he’s resonating with conservatives is that he’s a non-politician with a business record (which might explain why Cain’s getting a second look but Rick Santorum isn’t). So Cain now has his moment, and guess what: He doesn’t appear to be using it. For starters, with about three months until the Iowa caucuses, he’s going on a book tour for much of October. Second, he's not scheduled to be back in Iowa until mid-November. And third, his communications director just left his campaign -- to work for the re-election of Louisiana’s lieutenant governor (!!!). Those aren’t just signs of someone who’s unlikely to win the GOP nomination; they’re signs of someone who isn’t really trying to win, a la Mike Huckabee in 2007-2008. Cain does, however, meet with Donald Trump today. If you judge Huckabee’s 2008 campaign as a success, then Cain is on a successful path.

AP

Republican presidential candidate businessman Herman Cain speaking to reporters in Milton, Georgia, Sunday, Oct. 2, 2011.

*** A decision in the next 48 hours for Christie? NBC’s Jamie Gangel reported on “TODAY” earlier this morning that New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and his team have asked several Republicans who were about to endorse other candidates to hold off until Wednesday. So that means we could know something in the next 48 hours or so. Gangel also matched what other news outlets are reporting: that Christie may be one step closer to getting in to the race and that he is giving it “serious reconsideration”; that he spent the weekend discussing a possible presidential bid with his family; and that his family is on board if he decides to run. 

*** Remembering Rudy: And yet, why do all the signs and body language still suggest that Christie probably won’t run? Here’s one reason why: Some of his top aides and advisers worked on Rudy Giuliani’s failed presidential campaign in 2008. And remember, Rudy was promised things by many of these same GOP donors and establishment figures -- who are currently wooing Christie -- when he got in the ’08 race. And how did that turn out for him? Also, don’t forget Christie’s own experience about holding off four years. In 2005, he was asked to run for NJ GOV… he chose to wait. How did THAT turn out? Still, the reason he hasn’t said no yet: It appears he does want to be president… some day.

*** Romney the revenue raiser: If you want to know why some conservatives are wary of Mitt Romney's candidacy, look no further than what the New York Times reported yesterday -- Romney, as governor, raised taxes and closed loopholes as a way to increase revenue in Massachusetts. “[T]he Romney administration relentlessly scoured the tax code for more loopholes, extracting hundreds of millions of corporate dollars to help close budget gaps in a state with a struggling economy. It was only after Mr. Romney was gearing up in 2005 for a possible White House bid that he backed away from some of his most assertive tax enforcement proposals amid intensifying complaints from local companies and conservative antitax groups in Washington.” Ask yourself: What’s the difference between what Romney did in Massachusetts and what President Obama and national Democrats are trying to do in DC? So who is Romney giving a wink and a nod to -- moderates and indies, or to conservatives?

*** The money chase: Don’t forget: Between now and Oct. 15 (the deadline to file with the Federal Election Commission), we’ll start seeing the news of what the different campaigns raised in the 3^rd fundraising quarter.

*** On the 2012 trail: Romney holds a town hall in Salem, NH… Gingrich and Paul are also in New Hampshire… And Bachmann and Santorum stump in Iowa.

***Obama camp hits GOP field: Meanwhile, the Obama re-election campaign pens this memo to reporters: “From economics to immigration, Gov. Perry, Gov. Romney and the Republican field have embraced policies that the American people oppose. The campaign to win the Republican nomination has become a campaign to win the hearts and minds of the Tea Party. They would return to policies that have been tried before and done nothing to improve economic security for the middle class, rewarding special interests who can afford to pay for lobbyists instead of looking out for working families. While the President is fighting to create jobs and put money in the pockets of middle class Americans, the Republican candidates have proposed extending tax breaks for large corporations and tax cuts for the wealthiest while allowing special interests to write their own rules.”

*** Calendar chaos: Per NBC’s Ali Weinberg, South Carolina GOP Chairman Chad Connelly will announce his state's 2012 primary date at 11:00 am ET. The SC GOP has indicated it wants to hold the primary at least a week before Florida’s Jan. 31 contest.

*** West Virginia, Mountain Mama: It’s one day before tomorrow’s gubernatorial election in West Virginia. And any football fans in the DC area probably saw the Republican Governors Association TV ad -- multiple times! -- that ties Obama (and his health-care law) to Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin (D). Why is the RGA spending that kind of money in the DC area, which only partially touches West Virginia? Well, it has raised A LOT of money this cycle, and this is the only competitive gubernatorial contest this year. Tomblin is still favored in his contest against businessman Bill Maloney (R). Could the RGA’s bankshot work? We hear it has moved some undecided voters, and that Dems are getting more nervous. We’ll find out for sure tomorrow.

*** I am liberal, hear me roar: Starting today, liberals and progressives will gather in DC for the three-day “Take Back the American Dream Conference.” Among the speakers: Congresswoman Donna Edwards (D-MD), Congressman Barney Frank (D-MA), Congressman Keith Ellison (D-MN), AFL-CIO head Richard Trumka.

*** Monday’s “Daily Rundown” line-up: Republican strategist Charlie Black on the 2012 field… Former Sens. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) and John Sununu (R-NH) on what’s facing Congress (and the super committee) in the next few weeks… MSNBC’s Michael Smerconish on his radio interview with President Obama, and Chris Matthews on tonight’s special live 7:00 pm ET edition of Hardball debating the best strategic options the president has for a path to re-election… And more 2012 headlines with the Washington Post’s Dan Balz, Democratic strategist Karen Finney, and National Review/Bloomberg View’s Ramesh Ponnuru.

*** Monday’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports” line-up: NBC’s Andrea Mitchell interviews Supreme Court Justice Stephen Breyer, MSNBC’s Chris Matthews, Paul Pillar (on his new book on political pressure post-9/11), Arianna Huffington and Rita Wilson, Nancy Brinker, and the Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza.

Countdown to WV GOV contest: 1 day
Countdown to Election Day 2011: 36 days

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“In a sharp rebuke of his Republican rivals, President Barack Obama said anyone who wants to be commander in chief must support the entire US military, including gay service members,” the AP writes. “A combative Obama criticized GOP presidential candidates for staying silent when the crowd at a recent debate booed a gay soldier who asked a question of the contenders via videotape. ‘You want to be commander in chief? You can start by standing up for the men and women who wear the uniform of the United States, even when it’s not politically convenient,’ Obama said during remarks at the annual dinner of the Human Rights Campaign, the nation’s largest gay rights organization. Referencing the boos at the Sept. 22 Republican debate, he said: ‘We don’t believe in standing silent when that happens.’”

John Harwood says that Obama will likely borrow from George W. Bush’s 2004 re-election playbook. “Circumstances have changed drastically since 2004. America’s economic woes stand to dominate the 2012 dialogue no matter what — probably to Mr. Obama’s detriment. Yet in important electoral battlegrounds, Mr. Obama’s strategists intend to use abortion, gay rights, the environment and successes in the fight against Al Qaeda to counter economic attacks and drive a wedge between Republicans and swing voters. The Democratic shift from defense to offense on those issues stems from evolving public attitudes, intensifying Republican conservatism and the raid that killed Osama bin Laden on Mr. Obama’s orders.”

Channeling what we wrote on Friday, the New York Times notes the president’s growing list of foreign- policy and national-security accomplishments -- which have been overshadowed by the struggling U.S. economy. “Ten years after the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, economic insecurity has replaced national security as Americans’ chief concern, leaving Mr. Obama with little credit for his record of hunting and killing terrorists — a topic that stirred public passions not long ago.”

“The Obama campaign is likely to beat its $55 million target for combined third-quarter contributions to joint party and presidential committees — but likely to lag its record-breaking second-quarter haul, according to Democrats involved in the effort,” Politico reports. (The debt-ceiling debate wiped out about a month of Obama/DNC fundraising…)

“If, as now expected, the justices agree to review the [health] law’s constitutionality, those deliberations would certainly define the court’s coming term,” AP writes. “Their decision could rank as the court’s most significant since the December 2000 ruling that effectively sealed George W. Bush’s election as president.”

“The GOP presidential hopefuls all pay homage to Ronald Reagan, but his so-called 11th commandment of politics -- Thou shalt not speak ill of any fellow Republican -- is being regularly and energetically violated by the two Republican front-runners,” the Boston Globe writes. “The mutually hostile tenor has emerged at an unusually early point in the nominating contest, and it illustrates the high stakes involved. But it also shows that Romney - who for months hardly ever mentioned his primary opponents - is trying to quickly stem Perry’s rise. Just six weeks ago, Romney and his advisers said they did not feel threatened by having Perry in the race and would not change their strategy. Now, rarely a day goes by that his campaign does not try to put Perry on the defensive.”

BACHMANN: Channeling NBC’s Alex Moe, who reported over the weekend that both Bachmann and Perry are ignoring the crucial Northwestern section of Iowa, the L.A. Times writes, “Top Republicans neutral in the race say she squandered opportunities to build on her win and are baffled by the decisions her campaign is making, notably limiting most of her campaigning to Waterloo and the large cities of Des Moines, Ames and Cedar Rapids. ‘She's a great candidate but has turned into a really bad campaigner,’ said one longtime Iowa GOP operative who spoke anonymously to preserve relations with the campaign. ‘She has not gone to northwest Iowa, to the heart of where her support would be. Of Iowa's 99 counties, she's only visited a handful, most of which are urban counties. She needs to go out to the rural counties — she would be well received.’”

CAIN: “Republican presidential candidate Herman Cain said Sunday that he should not have stayed silent after the audience at a GOP debate booed a gay soldier serving in Iraq,” AP writes. “The Georgia businessman told ABC’s ‘This Week’ that it would have been ‘appropriate’ for him to have defended the soldier. None of the candidates on stage at the Sept. 22 forum responded to the boos.”

Smart Politics says there’s been a surge in Cain coverage: “Cain was interviewed or mentioned in 153 news stories on these six broadcast networks during the seven-day stretch, which was third behind only Rick Perry (190) and Mitt Romney (170) for the most in the Republican field. … Cain coverage nearly doubled that of Bachmann, who was interviewed or mentioned in 79 stories last week, followed by Ron Paul at 56 stories.”

CHRISTIE: “Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey should decide soon whether to seek his party’s nomination for the presidency in 2012, Republicans said on the Sunday television talk shows,” the Bloomberg News writes. Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell said on Meet the Press, “He’s an extraordinary communicator; he’s a great governor. I just think whoever’s going to get in needs to do it immediately. We have got 90 days until the caucuses start in Iowa.”

The New York Times adds, “Mr. Christie has not yet decided whether to run and has not authorized the start of a full-fledged campaign operation. But with the governor now seriously considering getting in, his strategists — many of them veterans of Rudolph W. Giuliani’s 2008 campaign — are internally assessing the financial and logistical challenges of mounting a race with less than 100 days until voting is likely to begin.”

Politico’s Haberman: “[T]hree sources who are aware of the discussions in Christieland said their perception is it's likelier than not that he stays out of the 2012 race. However, all three said the same thing - it's a family discussion between Christie and his wife Mary Pat, and he could still decide to run.”

GINGRICH: Newt being Newt: “He’s [Christie] a good governor. If he wants to come and play, we’d be glad to have him come. I think Gov. Perry could advise him that running for president is a little more complicated than being governor.”

PERRY: The Washington Post’s article from Sunday: “In the early years of his political career, Rick Perry began hosting fellow lawmakers, friends and supporters at his family’s secluded West Texas hunting camp, a place known by the name painted in block letters across a large, flat rock standing upright at its gated entrance. ‘@!$%#head,” it read.

Perry's communications director released this statement: "Gov. Perry and his family never owned, controlled or managed the property referenced in the Washington Post story. The 42,000-acre ranch is owned by the Hendricks Home for Children, a West Texas charity.”

More: "Perry’s father painted over offensive language on a rock soon after leasing the 1,000-acre parcel in the early 1980s. When Gov. Perry was party to the hunting lease from 1997 to 2007, the property was described as northern pasture. He has not been to the property since 2006. In 1991, the Texas Legislature passed a bill to rename old, offensive place names.”

But per the Post article, “Perry’s version of events differs in many respects from the recollections of seven people, interviewed by The Washington Post, who spoke in detail of their memories of seeing the rock with the name at various points during the years that Perry was associated with the property through his father, partners or his signature on a lease. Some who had watched Perry’s political ascent recalled their reaction to the name on the rock and their worry that it could become a political liability for Perry.”

“As Texas governor, Rick Perry spent tens of millions in taxpayer money to lure some of the nation's leading mortgage companies to expand their business in his state, calling it a national model for creating jobs. But the plan backfired,” AP writes.

ROMNEY: “On his Fox News show, Huckabee pressed him on issues dear to conservative voters, such as abortion and same-sex marriage,” AP writes. “Romney said he would appoint conservative Supreme Court justices. And he defended his Massachusetts health care plan, saying he would have backed an amendment to the state’s constitution to prevent subsidizing abortion.”

SANTORUM: He said on FOX: "I've heard it in Florida, I've heard it in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.... they're tired of the Mitt and Rick show, and they want to hear from the other candidates.”

“A Brennan Center study finds 19 recently passed voting laws in 14 states could make it significantly harder for more than five million eligible voters to cast ballots in 2012, leading to ‘significant electoral impact in next year's hard-fought races,’” Taegan Goddard writes, adding, “Minorities, poor and young voters will likely be most affected.”

Roll Call: “The conventional wisdom is that odds favor Republicans winning control of the Senate next year. But an examination of the 2012 landscape at the end of the third quarter shows the chamber’s majority could go either way.”

MASSACHUSETTS: The front page of the Boston Herald: “Poll vault!” about a poll showing Elizabeth Warren and Scott Brown in a statistical tie. Brown leads 41%-38% in a University of Massachusetts Lowell/Boston Herald poll. Warren leads the Democratic field by wide margins.

NEVADA: “Nevada Republicans decided Saturday to move up the GOP presidential caucuses to January to preserve the state's early voting spot, although it will cost the Silver State half its delegates at the national convention,” The Las Vegas Review-Journal reports. “The GOP executive board voted to go ahead with plans to hold its caucuses on the Saturday following New Hampshire, once that state decides a new date. It will be after the traditional first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses. Nevada moved its caucus date from Feb. 18 in response to Florida's decision on Friday to hold its primary Jan. 31.”

SOUTH CAROLINA: South Carolina GOP Chairman Chad Connelly will announce his state’s 2012 primary date today at 11:00 am ET. 

Asbury Park Press/AP

Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ) didn't lead on Sunday as to whether he'd run for president as he reviewed the National Guard in a stop in Sea Girt, N.J.

SEA GIRT, N.J. -- On a bright, clear day along the Jersey Shore, Gov. Chris Christie seemed to enjoy reviewing the National Guard here, one of his duties as New Jersey's commander in chief, but shed no light on whether he planned to seek the role of the nation's top commander.

Instead, after pinning on medals and riding in the back of an open Humvee to review several units scattered across the parade grounds, he gave a five-minute, wholly apolitical speech, in which he thanked the service members and their families for the sacrifices they have endured, and told them it was an honor to serve with them.

He also pointed out the New Jersey guard's exemplary service during Hurricane Irene. Christie accepted two gifts from the Guard -- a statuette commemorating his leadership during Irene, and a howitzer shell.

Despite shouted questions from the media during his departure, Christie chose not to answer whether he was running for president.

AP

Herman Cain speaks before the Florida Straw Poll.

KANSAS CITY, Mo. -- After delivering a rousing speech with multiple standing ovations on Saturday, presidential hopeful Herman Cain overwhelmingly won the National Federation of Republican Women’s Convention straw poll with 48.9% of the vote.

Cheers erupted in the convention hall after Cain’s name was revealed. Rick Perry placed a distant second with 14.1%, and Mitt Romney was third with 13.3%. Newt Gingrich, who spoke at the group’s luncheon Saturday, placed fourth with 12.5%.

Rick Santorum also appeared in front of the convention Saturday and finished fifth with 6.9%.

According to The Palladian View, who conducted the straw poll, 60% of the convention participated and the results represent 41 out of 50 states. 

The poll followed up with a question: Who would be your second choice? Cain took 23.8% of that vote with Gingrich at 20.8%, followed by Perry 15.8%, Romney 12.9%, and Santorum 10.3%.

The women at this convention said they were satisfied with the choice of Republican candidates for president, with 80.8% saying yes.

Asked if Chris Christie and Sarah Palin were added to the list, would they change their vote, 43.3% said no; 34% said they would vote for Christie, and 22.7% would vote for Palin.

Other interesting poll results from this GOP women's conference:

- 42.6% say the economy most concerns them, followed by taxes and federal spending with 18.4%, and electability in November in third with 13.3%.
- Asked if these women would rather see a man or woman serve as president of the United States, 75.6% said it doesn't matter.
- And asked if they consider themselves a member of the Tea Party, the group was split -- 50.5% said yes, 49.5% said no.
- Out of the 41 of 50 states represented, Texas had the plurality of members with 14.1%, followed by California, Missouri, Kansas, Arizona, South Carolina, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nevada, and Arkansas.

AP

Rep. Michele Bachmann (left) and Texas Gov. Rick Perry (right)

DES MOINES, Iowa -- With the 2012 presidential campaign well underway here, the first-in-the-nation caucus state, the top tier Republican candidates have largely ignored a crucial part of the state: the Northwest quadrant.

“There is not a more important region in Iowa than the Northwest counties,” a GOP strategist tells First Read. “While making up just a quarter of the state, they have an enormous, out-sized say in who will win Iowa.”

Texas Gov. Rick Perry, the supposed frontrunner, and Congresswoman Michele Bachmann, the winner of the Ames Straw Poll in August, have focused their campaigns thus far in the center of the state -- only a short radius from the capital city. Bachmann has only held four of her more than 70 events in the state in the Northwest, while Perry has yet to visit the region at all.

“Sometimes campaigns get a little bit lazy, and they skip the edges, but there’s an awful lot of votes in Northwest Iowa,” former Iowa GOP Chairman and CEO of Victory Enterprises Steve Grubbs admitted.

While former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has ignored Iowa all together, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, Texas Congressmen Ron Paul, former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich and former Godfather’s Pizza CEO Herman Cain have spent considerable amounts of time in the Northwest counties. Santorum, according to the Des Moines Register’s candidate tracker, has held 46 events in the region.

"Sen. Santorum is connecting well with Northwest Iowa voters, because he is speaking to the issues that they care most deeply about," said Jamie Johnson, state coalitions director for Santorum's campaign. "People appreciate his authenticity."

With Gingrich and Paul both making campaign stops in Sioux City last week, many Republicans heavily involved in the caucus process are surprised Perry and Bachmann are not trying to capitalize on the voters there yet.

“There is a goldmine of votes in Northwest Iowa,” a Republican strategist said, “and the GOP candidates had better get serious about campaigning there soon, or risk losing vital votes in Northwest Iowa.

“Northwest Iowa is a strongly conservative, evangelical, and heavily Republican area,” Dennis Goldford, a political science professor at Drake University, pointed out. There are not only more Republicans than Democrats in that area, Goldford said, but also more Republicans than independents. Registered independents outnumber both registered Democrats and Republicans statewide.

“Western Iowa, in general, and Northwest Iowa, in particular, have always played an important role in the Republican precinct caucuses, and that will be just as true in 2012,” admits Eric Woolson, Bachmann’s Iowa communications director and former Mike Huckabee aide.

The Northwestern part of the Hawkeye State has proved to be a key area for Republicans in recent elections. Both the 2008 caucus winner, Huckabee, and the 2010 gubernatorial winner, Terry Branstad, posted large turnout numbers in the counties in the most conservative part of the state.

“Gov. Huckabee was very popular in Northwest Iowa and had strong support in the area,” Woolson said.

Why then, if the Northwest region helped propel Huckabee ahead of Romney, who spent the most in the state, are Perry and Bachmann not spending more time there?

David Yepsen, the longtime political writer for The Des Moines Register and now a professor at Southern Illinois University, says expect to see more of an emphasis in the region this fall.

“The race hasn’t gelled enough,” Yepsen said. “It may be the campaigns are still trying to figure out: (1) what the calendar is, (2) what the field is, and (3) how to play it. It’s amazing how fluid it is this close to caucus night. As we get closer to the date, you’ll see more effort being expended there.”

Perry’s Iowa Chairman Bob Haus, said the governor would be putting a focus on the Northwest counties moving forward.

“There are big Republican population areas up there,” he said, “but there is also just a lot of conservative activists that I think Gov. Perry would appeal to in terms of his philosophy and stance on the issue.”

As for the Bachmann strategy, Woolson said, the congresswoman “will be devoting quite a bit of time to campaigning in Northwest Iowa as we go forward to caucus night."

Bachmann, in fact, heads to the region Monday, and Perry makes his first trip there next weekend.

Gov. Rick Perry's team pushed back Sunday on a Washington Post story charging that a racial epithet was displayed for decades on a hunting property leased by the Texas governor's family.

Perry's team says that the governor's father Ray painted over the name -- a holdover from the area's long cowboy culture -- in the early 1980s. That conflicts with the account of a total of seven sources -- who spoke on the condition of anonymity -- who told the Post that the offensive name of the hunting grounds was written on a flat slab of rock at the entrance to the property and was visible during the 1980s and 1990s when Perry launched his political career. One source said the word could be seen as late as 2008.

In a response to First Read, Perry Communications Director Ray Sullivan disputed the accuracy of those accounts.

"The rock was obscured in 1983 or 1984 and remained so," he said. "Named interviewees in the story corroborate that. The story has no named sources seeing the name on the rock in later 80s and 90s claim and those unnamed sources contradict one another."

Sullivan said Perry's last visit to the property was in December 2006 and that he stopped leasing it in 2007. The Perry campaign says the story's suggestion that Perry brought guests to the property when the offensive language was visible is also false. 

Full statement follows:

"A number of claims made in the story are incorrect, inconsistent, and anonymous, including the implication that Rick Perry brought groups to the lease when the word on the rock was still visible.  The one consistent fact in the story is that the word on a rock was painted over and obscured many years ago. Governor Perry and his family never owned, controlled or managed the property referenced in the Washington Post story.  The 42,000-acre ranch is owned by the Hendricks Home for Children, a West Texas charity.

"Perry’s father painted over offensive language on a rock soon after leasing the 1,000-acre parcel in the early 1980s. When Governor Perry was party to the hunting lease from 1997 to 2007, the property was described as northern pasture. He has not been to the property since 2006. In 1991 the Texas Legislature passed a bill to rename old, offensive place names."

Brian Chilson / AP

Former President Bill Clinton is greeted by well wishers Saturday as he arrives at a Little Rock, Ark., celebration of the 20th anniversary of his announcement that he would run for president of the United States.

LITTLE ROCK, AR -- Bill and Hillary Clinton emerged from the doors of the Old State House here this afternoon to greet thousands of their oldest supporters at the site where almost 20 years earlier the governor of Arkansas announced he would run for president.

Clinton said the challenges the current administration is dealing with are the same he faced when he moved into the White House.  But the economic climate now is worse than at any time he was president.

"Now the big challenge to our perfect union once again is a terrible economic crisis, more different, and deeper and more difficult than the one I faced," Clinton said. "Another young president is facing similar challenges ... underlying those challenges is the same old debate about whether government is the problem or we need smart government and a changing economy working together to create the opportunities of tomorrow."

Clinton advisers and staff descended on Little Rock this weekend to celebrate the 20-year anniversary of his decision to seek the White House.  On Friday, a panel of Clinton's top campaign advisers, including campaign manager James Carville, discussed their tumultuous road to the White House. Saturday night, many of the former staffer and supporters gathered for a reception on the grounds of the Clinton Presidential Library.

"I got my start in national politics with President Clinton," said Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel, who worked his way to become Clinton's political director.  "I wouldn't be the mayor of the city of Chicago, I wouldn't be a congressman, I wouldn't have been chief of staff for President Obama if it wasn't for the journey I joined."

The scene today mimicked campaign rallies Clinton held while seeking the presidency.  Fleetwood Mac’s “Don’t Stop” – the theme song of his run in 1992 – played while he took the podium.  He shook hands and greeted supporters on the rope line for more than an hour after the event.

While the former president critiqued the “anti-government strategy” from Republicans and offered ideas for improving the nation’s struggling economy, he remained largely reflective and thankful to his wife and the people in Arkansas who helped him win the White House.

"I've had a great time these last 10 years being a has-been and watching Hillary be a senator, run for president, be Secretary of State,” Clinton said.  “When we met many, many years ago - 40 plus to be exact - I thought she was the most gifted person of my generation.  I still feel that way.”

Many in the crowd sported signs from the Clinton-Gore ticket of the early 1990s. 

Harvey Joe Sanner of Des Arc, Ark., could point to the exact spot he shook then candidate Clinton’s hand after his announcement on Oct. 3, 1991.

“He had such a great message,” Sanner remembers.  “We’ve lost a lot of ground in this country.”

Herman Cain's communications director resigned today. Ellen Carmichael confirms to First Read that she has stepped down from the campaign, amicably, she says, to pursue other career opportunities.

"I'm eager to move back to Washington, D.C., where I used to live and all my friends are and just kind of get into a different aspect of the political arena," she said in a telephone interview. "I've been with Mr. Cain for more than a year, and I'm very, very fond of him and think the world of him, and we're close, and I have a great deal of admiration and respect for him. And after a year, you just get to the point where you're ready to go. I came to that point. So there's no ill will. It's a very amicable split."

Carmichael said she thinks Cain is doing well and gaining momentum, but "it just came to a point, where I was at peace with the decision to leave. I have been with the campaign for the good days and the bad days. When others left, I stayed. I've just gotten to the point where he's in a great place, and I'm really confident in what he's able to do. And because of the fact that he's in such a good place that I feel comfortable in leaving. Not leaving when he was down and out. I feel comfortable in moving along with my own life. It's nice to know that you were one of the original people when this thing started and to watch what it's become has been an unbelievable joy, and I'm grateful for the opportunity. To know that he's in a good spot, I know that I'm not abandoning him. He's going to be well taken care of."

Cain has seen a rise in some polls, with the stumbles of Texas Gov. Rick Perry. But some have questioned why then Cain wasn't going to be in the key early state of Iowa again until November. Instead, he's on a book tour, leading observers to question if he's a serious candidate.

DES MOINES, Iowa –- Democratic National Committee Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman-Schultz says the Republican Party is more worried about beating President Barack Obama than about creating jobs.

“So far, they only appear to care about one job -- Barack Obama’s -- and Democrats care about American jobs,” Wasserman-Schultz said this afternoon during a press avail.

The chairwoman is spending the weekend in the Hawkeye State not only campaigning for a few Members of Congress but also pushing for passage of the president’s American Jobs Act.

“The benefit of the American Jobs Act, not only would it be a shot in the arm for the economy, but President Obama proposed it with it being fully paid for," Wasserman-Schultz said. "We are confident. We can’t afford to wait. We can’t spend months or weeks waiting for scores. We need to act. The American people need jobs now."

It's unclear, however, how the measure would be paid for. The president tasked the joint "supercommittee" with finding a way to do so.

She contended Republicans in Congress want to beat Obama at the expense of the U.S. economy. A lot of the problems, Wasserman-Schultz said, come from the Tea Party and what she said was a lack of leadership by Speaker John Boehner to allow a small group of members to dictate what his caucus will or will not support.

“They are willing to allow the economy to remain stagnant for another 14 months and not move forward together in recovery in order to just be able to regain the White House,” Wasserman-Schultz said about the Republicans not supporting Obama's jobs act.

Of course, she also weighed in on the 2012 GOP presidential race while speaking to reporters at Drake University. After all, she was in that all-important first-in-the-nation caucus state.

“They are really all the same," the Florida congresswoman said. "It doesn’t really much matter which one of them wins the primary. They can’t out right wing the other enough."

The DNC chair, who only mentioned GOP contenders Rick Perry and Mitt Romney by name once, says she is confident that President Obama will win reelection and believes that Democrats can take back the House of Representatives, as well. She said she plans to be back in Iowa a few times next year.

HAMPTON, ATKINSON and MANCHESTER NH -- Stumping in Mitt Romney's backyard on Saturday, an energetic Texas Gov. Rick Perry worked aggressively to assure New Hampshire voters that he is the best GOP candidate to address border security and immigration issues.

"I'm a governor. I don't have the pleasure of standing on the stage and criticizing," he told a town hall audience in Hampton, in reference to attacks he has weathered from rivals on his handling of illegal immigration in his home state of Texas. "I have to deal with these issues."

Perry fielded questions throughout the day on his support for a 2001 bill to offer in-state tuition to illegal immigrants, which he explained as a state-based solution to prevent those students from ending up "on the government dole" due to their lack of education. He also highlighted his fights as Texas governor to institute voter identification laws and prevent illegal immigrants from obtaining drivers licenses. 

Although Romney signs and T-shirted volunteers were present throughout the governor's four campaign appearances of the day in New Hampshire, Perry did not attack Romney by name -- instead focusing on his own economic credentials and his solutions for border security.

Asked about the issue by a voter who supports Perry's philosophy of strategic metropolitan fencing rather than a continuous barrier across the US-Mexico border, Perry said that the latter would create a "false sense of security we don't have boots on the ground."

The Texas governor also suggested that he would be open to sending U.S. troops to Mexico to aid that nation's government in eliminating drug cartels -- a position he also voiced before his 2012 run.

"We were able to stop the drug cartels in Colombia was with a coordinated effort. It may require our military in Mexico, working in concert with them, to kill these drug cartels and keep them off our border and to destroy their network," he said. "I don't know all the different scenarios that would be out there, but I think it is very important for us to work with them to keep that country from failing."

Perry spokesman Robert Black said that Perry was not advocating specifically for a U.S. military presence in the nation's southern neighbor, but that he is prepared to "look at all options" to help resolve violence that is spilling over the border. "We need to look at any ways that we can coordinate to shut that violence down," Black said.

Perry also continued to tout his economic credentials, even hinting at some additional star power in his kitchen cabinet when he mentioned that he has been consulting with former presidential candidate Steve Forbes on fiscal policy.

Black confirmed that Perry met with Forbes in New York on a recent fundraising visit.

From the seacoast to the state's hub, Perry hopped across southern New Hampshire, hitting a woodsy town hall, a country club crowd, and a chili cookoff dampened by afternoon rain.

He finished his Granite State swing by kissing one of the region's most important political rings.

Appearing at the home of Republican gubernatorial candidate and one-time Senate contender Ovide Lamontagne, Perry offered vocal support to a candidate whose endorsement is one of the most prized of the cycle.

"This country will be better when you have a man like Ovide in your capitol," Perry said. "That's the kind of governor that we long for in this country."

HAMPTON, NH -- At a town hall meeting earlier this morning, Texas Gov. Rick Perry offered an in-depth explanation why the Lone Star State -- under his watch -- has allowed illegal immigrants to receive in-state tuition at Texas universities and colleges.

The explanation was received well by the crowd here.

"We have, for decades, had a federal government that has absolutely failed in its constitutional duty to defend our border," Perry said.

"I'm a governor. I don't have the pleasure of standing on the stage and criticizing. I have to deal with these issues," he later added.

Perry continued, "In 2001, we had this choice: Are we going to kick these children over to the curb and say you cannot have access to college? Because the fact of the matter is there's no way they could pay the out-of-state tuition. And are we going to have them on the government dole over here because they're not educated? Or are we going to have them in our institutions of higher learning, paying in state tuition, pursuing citizenship?"

"So in Texas, we made the decision that it was in our best interest as a state -- economically and otherwise -- to have those young people in our institutions of higher learning becoming educated to be part of our skilled workforce."

David Connors, the man who asked Perry the in-state tuition question, said he was satisfied with the governor's answer.

"Send these kids to jail? Or are you trying to make them productive members of society? And I guess from that point of reference, I agree with him."

Connors, who said he arrived at the town hall 100% against in-state tuition for illegal immigrants, was swayed by Perry's answer at the town hall.

"I came in here saying no, and I'm going out now saying maybe," he told NBC News.

As for his vote in the New Hampshire primary, Connors says he "could" support Perry, but is waiting to hear from all the candidates.