As we wrote earlier today in First Thoughts, President Obama is likely to revisit several themes that he discussed in his first State of the Union address, like the economy and political civility.

We put together a montage of some major themes - and seminal moments - of previous State of the Union addresses.

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

From NBC's Pete Williams
Attorney General Eric Holder called today's life sentence -- the maximum allowed by law -- for convicted bombing conspirator Ahmed Ghailani a demonstration of "the strength of the American justice system in holding terrorists accountable for their actions." 

While the jury's verdict in November was something of a setback for the government, finding Ghailani guilty of only one of 285 counts in the 1998 bombings of two US embassies in Africa, today's sentence of life in prison was what the government had urged the judge to impose. Ghailani was convicted in November of helping al Qaeda plotters obtain the materials they needed to build two powerful bombs that killed 213 people at the embassy in Kenya and 11 more at the embassy in Tanzania.

Today's legal victory for the government is somewhat muted, however. Ghailani, once viewed as a test case for putting detainees from Guantanamo Bay on trial in U.S. civilian courts, may turn out to the last such case. 

Holder said the sentence shows the government's resolve to "use every tool available to the government to do so," invoking the language he has employed to argue that terrorism detainees can be effectively tried in regular civilian courts and not only before military commissions.

But Congress has blocked the government from any further use of one of those tools, by revoking the authority to bring any more Gitmo prisoners to the U.S. to face trial in civilian courts. While Justice Department officials continue to believe that such high-profile terror suspects as Khalid Sheikh Mohammed should be tried in the U.S., there's a growing sense that if the 9/11 detainees are ever going to be put on trial, it will probably be before a military commission at Guantanamo.

NBCChicago's Mary Ann Ahern reports that the Illinois Supreme Court will hear Rahm Emanuel's appeal to knock him off the ballot in Chicago's Feb. 22 mayoral election.

From NBC's John Yang
The Illinois Supreme Court has just issued a stay of the appeals court's order knocking Rahm Emanuel off the ballot and directing the Chicago Board of Election Commissioners to restore his name to the ballot.

This is a strong indication that the court will accept the case and, perhaps, of which way the justices are leaning.

*** UPDATE *** NBC's Pete Williams has more:

Less than 24 hours after an Illinois appeals court bumped Rahm Emanuel off the ballot for Chicago's election for mayor, the state's supreme court put that ruling on hold and ordered the city to include his name on any ballots being printed.

"The Board of Elections is directed that if any ballots are printed while this Court is considering this case, the ballots should include the name of petitioner Rahm Emanuel as a candidate for Mayor of the City of Chicago," the Supreme Court said in a one-page, unsigned order.

The court said it acted after receiving legal briefs from Emanuel and from his legal opponents who claimed he was unqualified because he did not meet residency requirements of state law. Today's order left unresolved whether the state's high court would take up the entire case on a speeded-up basis, but the order gave Emanuel the rapid relief he was seeking -- to keep his name on the ballot.

*** UPDATE TWO***  NBC Chicago's Mary Ann Ahern reports that the court will hear Emanuel's appeal.

From NBC’s Luke Russert
*** UPDATE *** Pelosi has declined Cantor's invitation to sit together at the State of the Union Address, saying that she has already arranged to sit with Rep. Roscoe Bartlett, R-Md.

In a tweet, Pelosi said, "I thank @GOPLeader for his #SOTU offer, but I invited my friend Rep. Bartlett from MD yesterday & am pleased he accepted."
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*** UPDATE TWO *** Cantor will now sit with Rep. Bobby Scott, D-Va., tonight.

From Cantor spokesman Brad Dayspring:

"Minority Leader Pelosi declined Eric's offer, which would have resulted in the two party leaders sitting together. Eric will be sitting at the traditional spot on the House floor reserved for the Majority Leader and will be joined by Rep. Bobby Scott, his friend and colleague from Richmond."

GOP aides tell NBC News that Rep. Eric Cantor's chief of staff has asked Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi's office if she would like to sit next to the Republican Majority Leader for tonight's State of the Union.

When asked by NBC News about the offer, Cantor said, "I've not heard a response back from her office."

It is unclear whether or not she will accept the invite. As Democratic leader, she does have an assigned table in the room.

Yesterday, Cantor said that he wasn’t sure which Democratic colleague he would join for the address but noted that he would be happy to sit – as yesterday’s rumors hinted - next to Minority Whip Steny Hoyer, D-Md.

Cantor’s invitation to Pelosi comes on the heels of some harsh words for the former speaker. On Monday, Cantor praised Hoyer for his willingness to work productively across the aisle, a collegiality that Cantor said lay in “stark contrast” to his relationship with Pelosi.

“I would love to have the opportunity for her to engage in some type of working relationship so that we can actually deliver results,” he said.  “Thus far it seems she is continuing to drive the ideological agenda just the same as she did over the last four years.”

NBC’s Shawna Thomas and Carrie Dann contributed.

From NBC's John Yang
Rahm Emanuel's attorneys have filed their appeal with the Illinois State Supreme Court.

Technically, it is a request for permission to file an appeal. It takes four of the seven justices to agree to hear the case. One of the justices is Anne Burke, the wife of powerful Chicago Alderman Ed Burke, who has endorsed Emanuel opponent Gery Chico. Ed Burke is also the chairman of the panel that decides which Democratic judicial candidates get the blessing of the Cook County Democratic Party -- so a lot of judges owe their election to his support.

Both the traditionally Republican Chicago Tribune editorial page and the editorial page of the Chicago Sun-Times blasted the appeals court ruling that knocked Emanuel off the ballot. The Trib editorial's headline: "Judicial Arrogance." The Sun-Times': "Rahm ruling a disservice to voters."

*** UPDATE *** NBC's Pete Williams breaks down the appeal:

Yesterday's court decision "is one of the most far-reaching election law rulings ever to be issued by an Illinois court, not only because of its implications for the current Chicago mayoral election but also for the unprecedented restriction that it imposes" on the ability of people to run for office, Emanuel's lawyers say in briefs filed today.

The lower court found that while Emanuel was qualified to vote in the election, he wasn't qualified to run, because he did not physically live in Chicago for at least a year before Election Day. Such a finding has never been endorsed by any state appeals court in Illinois, his lawyers argue.

In fact, Emanuel's lawyers say, previous court rulings hold that the residency requirements for candidates are based on the rules voting eligibility. The lower court simply made up a stricter standard for candidates, they argue.

They also claim that the lower court's new standard -- that a candidate must physically live in a city for a year in order to run for local office -- would create all kinds of doubt. What about people whose companies assign them to work for a month on a special project out of town? How about members of Congress who are typically gone for several days a week? Would they be barred from running for a municipal office, on the grounds that they did not physically live in the city for an entire year before an election?

Monday night, Emanuel's lawyers asked the state supreme court to block the lower court's order and direct election officials to keep his name on the ballot. The court has not yet acted on that request.

From NBC's Pete Williams
Six Supreme Court Justices plan to attend tonight's State of the Union address, the same number as last year.

A court spokesman confirms the number, but the court isn't saying which of them will attend. Even so, it's possible to make a very good guess.

It's a cinch that the justices nominated by Democratic presidents will be there -- Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Stephen Breyer, Sonia Sotomayor, and Elena Kagan. As for the other two, Anthony Kennedy is very likely to attend, as he has at the last four addresses.

That leaves the sixth spot. We know it won't be Samuel Alito, who is in Hawaii for a long-standing speaking engagement. He wasn't on the bench Monday when the court handed down opinions, either.

My guess: Chief Justice John Roberts. He has attended every one of the speeches since he came on the court. And despite the dust-up over last year's State of the Union -- when President Obama criticized the court's ruling in the big campaign spending case and Roberts later called the annual event "a political pep rally" -- the mood this year is different. 

Members of Congress want to emphasize their ability to behave in a civil manner. Against that backdrop, a decision by Roberts to stay away would seem especially obvious. For that reason, it's highly likely he'll there tonight.

And now, the data: In the past 16 years, six is the largest number of justices to attend a State of the Union (or speech to a joint session of Congress in the years when it's not formally the State of the Union address). In 2006-2008, just four attended. Two came in 2002. Justice Stephen Breyer was the only justice to attend in 2001 and 2003-2005. And no justices at all came in 2000.

What has changed since Obama’s last State of the Union: The GOP now controls the House, the president has the political momentum, the labor market is headed in the right direction, and the tone (at least temporarily) isn't as harsh… What hasn’t changed: The themes Obama will address tonight, as well as a 9%-plus unemployment rate… Tonight’s State of the Union address takes place at 9:00 pm ET… Watch the re-election message: In his ’03 SOTU, Bush stressed security, while Clinton unveiled his triangulation rhetoric in ’95… Paul Ryan's also in the spotlight… Law, politics, and Chicago’s mayoral race… And don’t forget about the mayoral recall in Omaha.

From NBC's Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** What has changed (and what hasn’t): Many of the themes that President Obama is expected to discuss tonight in his State of the Union address -- the future and competitiveness, job creation, deficit reduction, investments in infrastructure, civility in politics -- aren’t new. In fact, they were parts of the State of the Union speech he delivered a year ago. (One example: “What the American people hope -- what they deserve -- is for all of us, Democrats and Republicans, to work through our differences…”) But while tonight’s words might not change much, the political environment certainly has. For starters, Republicans now control the House (so it will be John Boehner, not Nancy Pelosi, standing behind Obama tonight), and they’ve gained additional seats in the Senate, which makes it all but impossible for Democrats to enjoy the same legislative successes they had in ’09 and ’10. 

*** The answer, my friend, is blowing in the political winds: The political winds also have changed. In last year’s State of the Union address, Democrats had just lost the special Senate election in Massachusetts days earlier, which ended their filibuster-proof majority in that chamber, threatened health care’s final passage, and gave the GOP considerable momentum heading into the midterms. Now? It’s Obama with the political momentum, as his approval rating sits at 53% in the new NBC/WSJ poll (compared with Bill Clinton’s 45% and George W. Bush’s 54% at this same juncture). Conversely, Republicans -- in power in Congress for just a couple of weeks -- have seen their favorable rating go from a net positive to a net negative, and they're viewed as too inflexible in dealing with Obama. And the political mood seemed to have an impact on 2010 Obama, as he was a tad defensive on health care and took after the Supreme Court on Citizens United which, perhaps, led to the most memorable aspect of that State of the Union -- the reaction from Justices Alito and Roberts. It’s a reminder that even in a planned event like the SOTU, the unexpected can overshadow the expected.

*** It’s the economy, stupid: Then there’s the economy. The Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs report issued before the 2010 State of the Union showed the economy had lost 109,000 jobs the month before and 4.7 million jobs for all of ’09. Now? The last report showed the economy gained 103,000 jobs last month and 1.1 million jobs for all of 2010. Still, the overall unemployment hasn’t changed significantly: When Obama spoke last year, it was at 9.9%; now it’s 9.4%. Indeed, even though the labor market is getting better instead of worse, we’ll probably hear Obama say something similar to this line from a year ago: “One in 10 Americans still cannot find work. Many businesses have shuttered. Home values have declined. Small towns and rural communities have been hit especially hard. And for those who’d already known poverty, life has become that much harder.”

*** Raising Arizona: And then there’s the tone. A year ago, while we didn’t see a member of Congress yell, “You lie!” to the president at the State of the Union, the atmosphere was pretty rowdy, with some GOP members waving their own health-care outlines. But after the attempted assassination of Rep. Gabrielle Giffords -- in addition to the others who were either killed or wounded earlier this month in Tucson -- the tone is likely to be much different than it was last year. The biggest example: The Democrats and Republicans who plan to sit together of sitting on one side or the other. On “TODAY,” NBC’s Savannah Guthrie reported that there will be an empty chair in Giffords’ honor tonight, and some members are planning to wear ribbons. What’s more, the first lady’s box will include Giffords’ doctor, the parents of the slain Christina Taylor-Green and the intern Daniel Hernandez.

*** The re-election message: Another thing to watch tonight: The overall theme of Obama’s address is likely to be a key component of his re-election campaign. In 2003, George W. Bush began his State of the Union talking about bipartisanship, the economy, Social Security, and Medicare. But then he pivoted to what became a staple of his ’04 campaign: "Our war against terror is a contest of will in which perseverance is power. In the ruins of two towers, at the western wall of the Pentagon, on a field in Pennsylvania, this nation made a pledge, and we renew that pledge tonight: Whatever the duration of this struggle and whatever the difficulties, we will not permit the triumph of violence in the affairs of men; free people will set the course of history." (There was also this line, too: “The British government has learned that Saddam Hussein recently sought significant quantities of uranium from Africa.")

*** Foreshadowing Bush’s security message in ’04 and Clinton’s triangulation in ’96: And here was Bill Clinton in his ’95 State of the Union. He was contrite after his party’s midterm shellacking. “In this effort I am frank to say that I have made my mistakes, and I have learned again the importance of humility in all human endeavor.” And then he pivoted to the language of triangulation. “I think we all agree that we have to change the way the government works. Let's make it smaller, less costly, and smarter; leaner, not meaner." Also: "Our job here is to expand opportunity, not bureaucracy, to empower people to make the most of their own lives, and to enhance our security here at home and abroad.” And: "So let this be the year we end welfare as we know it. But also let this be the year that we are all able to stop using this issue to divide America." Don't expect Obama to be this blunt on "mistakes."

*** Under wraps: As for "news" out of the SOTU, the White House has kept this speech more under wraps than the last three speeches the president has delivered in the House chamber. Is this a result of the new more disciplined Daley/Plouffe regime? Perhaps…

*** Ryan in the spotlight: Delivering the GOP’s State of the Union response will be Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI), chairman of the House Budget Committee. Per a House GOP leadership aide, Ryan “will make clear in his address that Washington’s spending binge is hampering job creation and piling debt on our children and grandchildren.” The aide also says that Ryan will draw a line in the sand on the debt ceiling. “While the Obama Administration has asked Congress to approve an increase in the debt limit, Ryan will make clear that spending cuts and spending reforms must come first, a point that GOP leaders in both the House and Senate have also made.” The congressman will deliver his response from the House Budget Committee’s hearing room. Meanwhile, Rep. Michele Bachmann will give a SOTU response sponsored by the Tea Party Express, an event that is not playing well with House GOP leaders, like Eric Cantor, who bluntly wondered aloud yesterday at a pen-and-pad briefing why the press is giving Bachmann so much attention.

*** The law, politics, and Chicago’s mayoral race: Moving from Washington to the electoral confusion in Chicago’s mayoral race, we have this question: How much was an appellate panel’s decision yesterday to throw front-runner Rahm Emanuel off the ballot a legal decision, and how much of it is hardball Chicago politics? To us, this seems to come down to the letter of the law (that a candidate must physically reside in Chicago a year before the contest) versus the spirit of the law (that you’re a resident if you’re paying taxes there, voting there, and owning a home there while temporarily working for the White House). In any event, unless Emanuel’s team is granted a stay, the Chicago Board of Elections says it’s moving ahead and printing ballots WITHOUT Emanuel’s name on them. "We're going to press with one less candidate for mayor," Langdon Neal, the chairman of Chicago’s Board of Election Commissioners said, per NBC’s John Yang. Ballots have to be ready for the start of early voting one week from today, Jan. 31. Bottom line: Rahm's candidacy is in big trouble. Can it be saved by Republicans on the IL Supreme Court who might fear a more liberal mayor?

*** Total Recall -- in Omaha: While we’re all focused on the State of the Union, as well as what’s happening in Chicago, don’t lose sight of this story: Residents of Omaha, NE are voting today on whether to recall their elected mayor, Democrat Jim Suttle. Recall advocates, per the AP, have cited “‘excessive taxes, broken promises and union deals that cost taxpayers millions and threaten Omaha's economic future.’ But Suttle says he has turned the city's finances around, eliminating a projected $12.4 million shortfall in last year's budget to end 2010 with a $3.3 million surplus.” This Omaha recall isn't scandal based; it’s simply a way to channel voter anger over budget issues in the city. It's just the type of thing to could get politically contagious. A little reminder: In 2003, California voters recalled their governor, and the man who replaced him ended up having lower poll numbers and a bigger budget deficit than the man he replaced.

*** 2012 watch: Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum are in Iowa, addressing the Iowa Renewable Fuels Association… Tim Pawlenty’s in New Hampshire… Sarah Palin speaks before a hunting group in Reno, NV.

Countdown Chicago’s mayoral election: 28 days
Countdown to Election Day 2011: 287 days
Countdown to the Iowa caucuses: 377 days
* Note: When the IA caucuses take place depends on whether other states move up

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“When President Barack Obama delivers his second State of the Union address to a joint session of Congress, he will have a special charge: winning over Republicans still skeptical about whether he is willing to compromise and be an ally in the fight to create jobs, reduce the deficit and get the budget back in the black,” Roll Call writes. It adds, “This year’s speech couldn’t be more different from last year’s. Rather than focus on specific Democratic policy proposals, Obama will speak in broad themes that already have strong bipartisan support: job creation, international competitiveness and fiscal discipline. And he will be looking to appeal to a new GOP House majority -- and independent voters --  with talk of consensus building and gentler rhetoric; he will build on the message he delivered in his speech earlier this month at the Tucson, Ariz., memorial.”

The New York Times: "In his first State of the Union address before a Congress under divided control, advisers say Mr. Obama will lay out his case for investment in education and infrastructure, while tempering his call for new initiatives with an acknowledgment of the country’s long-term fiscal challenges. The speech — the details of which have been held more closely than usual — offers the president an opportunity to redefine his administration at the start of the 2012 presidential campaign."

The Hill wonders if Bill Clinton’s 1995 address can serve as a roadmap to Obama’s tonight: “Clinton in 1995 called for the New Covenant, an agreement that lawmakers would work on behalf of the people to cut government’s size and make it more responsible to Americans. Obama’s 2011 speech is themed “Winning the Future,” and is focused on making a direct appeal to lawmakers and the nation on the need to enhance the country’s global competitiveness.”

By the way, the hero intern Daniel Hernandez “credited with saving the life of Rep. Gabrielle Giffords is urging President Obama to support tougher gun laws in response to the deadly Arizona shootings.” He said, “It is my hope that President Obama and Congress will work together right away to reform our gun background-check system so that all records of dangerous people are in the system and all gun buyers will have to pass a thorough background check,” Hernandez said Monday in a statement. Such changes should “be done in a way that does not infringe on Second Amendment rights,” he added, “so that responsible citizens may exercise their right to bear arms.”

The Daily News’ DeFrank: “If there's any doubt Obama now gets the new centrist reality, it should be erased by his response to the Tucson horror. Not his speech at the memorial service, although his powerful, healing remarks drew rare bipartisan accolades and burnished Obama's political comeback. It was, instead, his decision to offer an Air Force One seat to a rookie congressman who famously called him the worst President in history in a campaign spot. Lyndon Johnson would have taken his wrath out on a water project in young Ben Quayle's home district. Barack Obama saw an opportunity to be magnanimous - and presidential - and grabbed it.”

“Among the advice Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) is getting before Tuesday night’s big speech: Stick with broad themes; don’t be negative; and smile and look like Ronald Reagan,” The Hill reports.

Carol Browner, the head of the White House Office of Energy and Environment, is leaving the administration, NBC’s Savannah Guthrie reported last night. There’s no word from the administration on whether Browner will be replaced or if the position will be eliminated.

The New York Times says her departure “signals at least a temporary slowing of the ambitious environmental goals of President Obama’s first two years in the face of new Republican strength in Congress.” 

NBC’s Ken Strickland notes that prom night comes to Congress as member scurry to find bipartisan dates for the president's State of the Union address. In a news conference this morning, the four members leading the push for bipartisan seating will make the case that their largely symbolic effort "can help shape the tone in our broader political debate." Driving the issue are Sens. Lisa Murkowski (R) and Mark Udall (D), along with Reps. Heath Shuler (D) and Paul Gosar (R). The latest announcements of "who's-taking-who" on the Senate side include Murkowski & Mikulski; Warner & Chambliss, Rockefeller & Hutchison; and Coons & Boozman.

Roll Call: “As Members of Congress scramble to find opposite-party seating partners for the State of the Union address, the scene inside the House chamber tonight could look like a giant speed-dating event.”

Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-UT) is having a hard time finding a date and took his laments to Twitter… “So I don't have a date to SOTU. Oh, how it is to be the ugly conservative. I see Rep. Issa is ‘going with’ Rep. Towns. Towns was choice 1.” And: “If I sit with a RINO, does that count? Better not get stuck with Rep Weiner! Perhaps the First Lady needs a date?”

Rep. Jared Polis (D-CO) offered Chaffetz a seat with the neighboring Colorado bipartisan coalition. Anthony Weiner (D-NY) is going to be himself. He Tweeted: “I'll be sitting on the GOP side of the aisle for the SOTU.  But ill be standing and clapping mostly.”

But Rep. Paul Broun (R-GA) channeled his inner Admiral Ackbar. "I believe firmly that it is a trap and a ruse that the Democrats are proposing," Broun said last week. "They don't want civility, they want silence from the Republicans. And sitting together being kissy kissy is just another way to silence Republicans and also to show, to keep the American people from seeing how few of them there are in the U.S. House now."

A bipartisan effort to strike a narrow tax provision from the health care law regains momentum today, NBC’s Strickland reports. At issue is a reporting requirement tucked into the law that mandates businesses submit IRS tax form 1099 for every vendor it plays more than $600. (It was designed to prevent vendors from underreporting income to the IRS while simultaneously offsetting the cost of the health care law. Instead, opponents say, it will create a paperwork nightmare for small businesses and the IRS.) GOP Sen. Mike Johanns holds a conference call this morning (with Dem Sen. Joe Manchin) to reintroduce a bill he offered last year to repeal "1099." And Democrat Max Baucus will also introduce his own version today with several cosponsors.

House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA) criticized Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) for not reaching out more and praised Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D-MD).

First, health care, then abortion, now a gay marriage ban in DC. That’s the latest from House Republicans. “House conservatives say they will pursue legislation that would ban gay marriage in the nation’s capital. Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), chairman of the conservative Republican Study Committee (RSC), told The Hill that he will push for a vote on the controversial issue in the 112th Congress. The RSC has 175 members.” 

Aside from New Hampshire’s election of Tea Party activist Jack Kimball as state Republican party chair, “two other tea party-affiliated candidates knocked off establishment picks to win state party chairmanships Saturday—radio talk show host Kirby Wilbur in Washington state and conservative activist Tom Morrissey in Arizona,” Politico writes. “A third GOP chairman elected Saturday, Oregon’s Allen Alley, didn’t hail from the grassroots conservative populist wing of the party but he aggressively courted it—and his message of tight-fisted spending appealed to tea party activists.”

The Wall Street Journal deems Newt Gingrich and Tim Pawlenty the two rumored presidential candidates who have done the most so far to reach out to Hispanic voters.

BACHMANN: Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia addressed a group of lawmakers at a gathering sponsored by the Tea Party Caucus, organized by Rep. Michele Bachmann, Bloomberg reports. “Scalia’s speech was the first in a series of seminars the Tea Party Caucus plans to hold twice a month to refresh members on ‘basic principles,’ said Doug Sachtleben, a spokesman for Bachmann.”

BARBOUR: “Mississippi Gov Haley Barbour will visit the Republican-heavy Upstate of South Carolina Wednesday for two private events with local GOP officials to discuss a potential presidential run,” Politico reports.

CHRISTIE: “Political analysts said the New Jersey governor on Monday significantly broadened his national credentials as a social conservative by joining abortion protesters at a rally and encouraging them to ‘stand up and speak strongly in favor for the protection of every human life,’” the Daily Record writes. “Marie E. Tasy, executive director of New Jersey Right to Life, said it was the first time a New Jersey governor had addressed a pro-life rally.”

HUCKABEE: The former Arkansas governor decision to delay his presidential decision until summer means he won’t participate in any debates scheduled for earlier in the year, Politico writes. “’You want to schedule a debate for March or May, knock yourselves out,’ Huckabee said. ‘If I'm not there, you can still have it. But I'm not going to be there.’"

PAWLENTY: From Concord, N.H., Roll Call writes, “He didn’t go after former presidential candidate Mitt Romney by name, but former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty said he has to work harder to connect with the people of New Hampshire than ‘anybody who ran last time.’” He said, “I didn’t run last time, so anybody who ran last time has a built-in name ID advantage and some legacy infrastructure. But we’re making good progress, because history shows there’s more than enough room in these races for somebody who didn’t run last time to build an organization. We’ve got to go out and earn support. That’s what we’re doing.”

Call it “T-Paw: The Movie.” The former Minnesota governor released a dramatic, minute-and-a-half long promotional web video for his book.

“About 100 people showed up at the Barnes and Nobles store in Manchester [New Hampshire] on Monday, where Pawlenty spent an hour signing copies of his book, ‘Courage to Stand: An American Story,’” WMUR reports.

Later last night, Pawlenty spoke to a “friendly crowd” at a Merrimack County Republican Committee reception in Concord, NH. “’We are the most successful and most prosperous nation because we're the freest nation the world has ever known,” Pawlenty told the crowd, according to the Concord Monitor. Today, Pawlenty speaks at a Politics and Eggs event in Bedford, NH, the Monitor adds.

THUNE: The senator changed his fundraisers, fueling speculation that it could mean he’s mulling a run in 2012. His former fundraiser has another prominent client – Rep. Mike Pence – and her husband was a top aide to Mitt Romney during his 2008 run. “It is possible that she and Thune separated because of the conflict that would ensue if both Republican Members enter the GOP presidential primary,” Roll Call writes, adding, “[T]here is speculation that she is poised to sign on with Romney for a 2012 run that is expected to launch at some point this year.”

IOWA: “A movie starring two Academy Award winners will make its world premiere in Des Moines this week. Promoters of the film, called ‘The Genesis Code,’ say they chose Iowa for the debut because of the state’s important political role as the first-in-the-nation Presidential Caucus state,” Radio Iowa reports.

The Des Moines Register previously wrote that the film is “a $5 million Focus on the Family-approved dramatic film that focuses on reconciling the Book of Genesis with science’s explanation for the origins of the universe.” 

Roll Call profiles Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA), who embarks on a second term at the DSCC.

MICHIGAN: “Former Michigan Republican Party chairman Saul Anuzis says he is considering a possible run against Democratic U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow in 2012,” the AP writes. 

NEW HAMPSHIRE: A new survey finds that former Republican Senate candidate Ovide Lamontagne would earn 37% of the gubernatorial vote if the election were held today, New Hampshire Journal says. 

From NBC’s Shawna Thomas and Carrie Dann
Tea Party favorite Michele Bachmann may be delivering a speech after President Barack Obama’s State of the Union address tomorrow, but a top House Republican was careful on Monday to emphasize that hers is not the GOP-sanctioned response.

"Paul Ryan's giving the official Republican response,” said Majority Leader Eric Cantor at a pen-and-pad briefing with reporters. He added that Bachmann will have an opinion about what the president has to say "just as the other 534 members of the House and Senate [are going to."]

Bachmann’s response, which is sponsored by the Tea Party Express, will be broadcast online, while Ryan’s remarks will be carried by major television networks.

Per a House leadership aide, Ryan is expected to focus on spending cuts – a message underscored by the fact that he’ll deliver his remarks from the committee room of the budget panel he now chairs.

Asked what he hopes to hear from the president on Tuesday night, Cantor reiterated his message from his appearance on NBC’s Meet the Press over the weekend.

"The question is, is he going to decouple himself from what we have seen over the last two years and what he has been selling? Is he going to continue to sell that ... or will there be a new direction."  Cantor said. "And I think that the success of this Congress will rest on that question as will, frankly, the outcome of the election in November 2012."

While Republicans and Democrats continue to pair off with bipartisan “dates” to sit with during the president’s speech, it’s unclear where exactly Rep. Cantor will end up. An initial plan for Cantor to be seated next to his Democratic predecessor, Rep. Steny Hoyer, appears to be up in the air now as members of the House leadership teams hammer out their exact seating arrangements.

From NBC's Pete Williams
The Illinois appeals court that found Rahm Emanuel unqualified to run for mayor of Chicago ruled today that while he is unquestionably qualified to vote in the election, he isn't qualified to be a candidate because he hasn't lived in the city for a year before the election.

The case turns on the meaning of an Illinois law providing that a person cannot run for a city office "unless that person is a qualified elector of the municipality and has resided in the municipality" for at least a year preceding the election.

It's an issue for Emanuel -- a Chicago native and former congressman representing the city -- because he went to Washington to become White House chief of staff when President Obama was elected. At first, he lived in an apartment while his family remained in Chicago. Then, in June 2009, he and his family rented a Washington, DC house while leasing the Chicago house to another family. 

The 2-1 ruling said Emanuel meets the less restrictive state law test of being "a qualified elector," because he clearly intended to live in Washington temporarily and then return to Chicago. What's more, Illinois law says no voter can be found to have lost his legal residence "by reason of his or her absence on business of the United States."

But the court found that the legal test for the residence of a candidate is more narrow.  The requirement that a candidate must have "resided in" the city for a year before the election means, the court said, to "actually live rather than having legal voting residence" -- a qualification that Emanuel "unquestionably does not satisfy."

The court cited a 1901 ruling of the Illinois Supreme Court, which said that someone who has residence in name only, as opposed to actually living in the city, "has no better opportunities for knowing the wants and rightful demands of his constituents than a non-resident, as is as much beyond the wholesome influence of direct contact with them.

The court's dissenting vote, Justice Bertina Lampkin, said her fellow judges ignored long-standing Illinois court rulings about whether being qualified to vote was good enough to be eligible to run as a candidate. The majority's reading of the law "is indefensible," Lampkin said. She accused her colleagues of embarking "on a revision of Illinois law concerning candidate residency requirements."

President Barack Obama has named White House attorney Don Verrilli as the next solicitor general of the United States.

The job of the government's top lawyer has been vacant since Elena Kagan departed the post to become a Supreme Court justice. Kagan's former deputy, Neal Katyal, has been serving as the acting solicitor general since her departure.

Verrilli is best known for his work on intellectual property and telecommunications cases during his 20 years in private practice at the Jenner & Block law firm. He was the lead attorney representing major entertainment companies in the 2005 Supreme Court ruling that peer-to-peer file-sharing websites like Grokster could be sued for copyright infringement for material swapped on their sites.

Verrilli has participated in more than 100 cases before the high court, according to the White House, and has argued twelve. He also served for over a decade as a constitutional law professor at Georgetown University.

He must be confirmed by the Senate.

NBC's Athena Jones contributed to this report.

From NBC's Athena Jones
JAN 24 -- At an event to announce some 50 proposals to help service members and their families, President Obama called support for military families not just a moral obligation but a matter of national security.

The series of recommendations reach across numerous federal agencies and the president noted that 16 members of his Cabinet had committed their departments to making military families one of their highest priorities.

The proposals aim to expand career and education options for military families, address homelessness and mental health and protect families from predatory lending. Some of the initiatives are already underway.

"We aren't simply reaffirming our commitment to military families we are upping our game," the president told the crowd gathered in the East Room. "One percent of Americans may be fighting our wars, 100 percent of Americans need to be supporting our troops and their families."

Among the guests in attendance were Attorney General Eric Holder, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, Interior Secretary Ken Salazar, Education Secretary Arne Duncan, Energy Secretary Steven Chu, White House Domestic Policy Adviser Melody Barnes and Sen. John McCain (R-AZ).

Dr. Jill Biden and First Lady Michelle Obama spoke briefly before the president's remarks. Along with nutrition and exercise, military families have been a main focus of the first lady's over the past two years.

"For me and for Jill, this isn't about just understanding your concerns," the first lady said. "It's about addressing your concerns.  It's about telling your stories throughout the country, but more importantly, giving you a voice with decision-makers."

The recommendations to address some of the critical needs of military families are included in the final report of the Presidential Study Directive-9 (PSD-9), "Strengthening our Military Families: Meeting America's Commitment."

NBC News and Politico have set the date for the GOP presidential debate at the Reagan Library: May 2.

The moderators will be NBC's Brian Williams and Politico's John Harris. Below is the press release:

DATE ANNOUNCED FOR FIRST GOP PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE OF THE 2012 SEASON
 
REAGAN "CENTENNIAL" DEBATE TO BE TELEVISED ON MSNBC, TELEMUNDO, CNBC, AND LIVESTREAMED ON POLITICO

NBC NEWS' BRIAN WILLIAMS AND POLITICO'S JOHN F. HARRIS TO CO-MODERATE

Simi Valley, CA – The Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation announced today that May 2, 2011 is the date for the Republican presidential candidates’ debate being held at the Reagan Library. The Reagan Foundation also announced a host of details about the first Republican debate of the 2012 campaign season, including a roster of some of the nation's top journalists from NBC News, POLITICO and Telemundo to take part in the questioning.

“We have established a wonderful tradition – of which I know Ronnie would be so proud – of using the Library as a first-in-the-nation forum for candidates to introduce themselves and their visions for America to a national audience,” former First Lady Nancy Reagan said.

The Reagan Library, in Simi Valley, California, was also the venue for the first Republican debate of the 2008 campaign cycle. Mrs. Reagan and the Presidential Foundation announced last fall the plan to host the candidates as the 2012 campaign season begins.

In addition to the date of this year’s gathering — selected by the Presidential Foundation after consultation with national Republicans — there are several important features of the Library Debate announced by Mrs. Reagan today:

*Brian Williams, anchor of the top-rated NBC Nightly News, will be co-moderator, along with POLITICO Editor-in-Chief John F. Harris, a presidential scholar and one of the nation's top political journalists. A Telemundo reporter will also join in the questioning.

*NBC News and POLITICO will be joined by Telemundo and CNBC in airing the debate. This will mark the first time a news organization aimed at Hispanic Americans and the nation’s leading business news network will join in the inaugural debate of a presidential campaign season.

*The debate will air on MSNBC, POLITICO.com, CNBC and Telemundo.

The Reagan Presidential Foundation plans to play host to both the first GOP presidential debate of the 2012 election cycle on May 2, 2011 and a second GOP debate on the eve of the Super Tuesday primaries.

The Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation is a non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to the preservation and promotion of Ronald Reagan's legacy of inspired freedom and his timeless principles of individual liberty, economic opportunity, global democracy, and national pride. It sustains the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library and Museum, the Reagan Center for Public Affairs, the Walter and Leonore Annenberg Presidential Learning Center and The Air Force One Pavilion. Located in Simi Valley, California the Library houses 63 million pages of Gubernatorial, Presidential and personal papers and over 60,000 gifts and artifacts chronicling the lives of Ronald and Nancy Reagan. It now also serves as the final resting place of America’s 40th President. www.reaganfoundation.org

NBC News has been a leading source of global news and information for more than 75 years. Operating around the clock with bureaus in key cities in the U.S. and overseas, NBC News provides immediate coverage and in-depth reporting of major events to a worldwide audience. Telemundo, the second-largest Spanish-language network in the United States, reaches 93% of Hispanic and Latino American households. CNBC is the recognized world leader in business news, providing real-time financial market coverage and business information to more than 390 million homes worldwide, including more than 95 million households in the United States and Canada.

POLITICO is a Washington, D.C.-based political journalism organization that serves as the one-stop shop for the fastest, most in-depth coverage of the president, the new Congress and the 2012 presidential race. POLITICO’s journalists break news and drive conversation about the White House, Capitol Hill and Washington lobbying, plus the intersection of politics with Wall Street, media and personalities. POLITICO launched in January of 2007 with the mission of covering politics with enterprise, style and impact.

From NBC's John Yang
CHICAGO -- Rahm Emanuel's attorneys say they intend to appeal the ruling to the state Supreme Court, perhaps as soon as tomorrow.

Four of the seven Supreme Court justices have to agree to hear the case. One of the justices is the wife of Chicago Alderman Edward Burke, who has endorsed one of Emanuel's opponents. One of Emanuel's attorneys tells WMAQ's Mary Ann Ahern that they do not intend to ask her to recuse herself.

Emanuel's lead attorney also acknowledges to Ahern that the state Supreme Court does not usually overturn the appeals court.

And early voting in the race starts one week from today -- Jan. 31.

George Allen is out of political exile and wrapping himself in the Tea Party.

In a video released today announcing his 2012 bid for his old Senate seat, Allen jumps on the Tea Party bandwagon, hitting the themes of “freedom,” “spending,” “mandates,” “the American Dream” and even the founding fathers.

“One of my heroes, Thomas Jefferson, said that the sum of good government is a wise and frugal government that shall not take from the mouths of labor the bread they have earned,” Allen says.

He added a line that could double as his own theme: “Friends, it’s time for an American comeback.

“A comeback with leaders in Washington who listen to we, the people, adhere to foundational principles, rein in spending and start creating opportunities for more jobs.”

He pledges to “repeal and replace this government-mandated health-care experiment, pass a balanced-budget amendment, and the line-item veto, and reduce our families’ energy costs by unleashing our American resources and creativity.”

He signs off, “Thank you and please stay strong for freedom.”

As we wrote in First Thoughts on Allen’s chances: “[K]eep this in mind: While rematches are tough in general, a pre-Macaca Allen beat a relatively weak Chuck Robb (D) by just 52%-48% in 2000, a year Al Gore didn’t even compete in Virginia (and lost the state 52%-44%). Of course, the Democrats still have to convince Webb to run for re-election. But if Webb does -- or if Tim Kaine takes his place if he doesn’t -- it could be much more difficult than many are realizing for Allen to win if Obama’s re-election chances are looking strong. Be careful handicapping this race ONLY through the prism of 2006 or 2010; presidential years dramatically alter the Virginia electorate.”

Here’s the full script, per his campaign:

You know what we’ve been getting from Washington?

Overspending, finger pointing and government mandates.

What’s missing?

Listening.

Hi, I’m George Allen.

Susan and I have been traveling throughout the Commonwealth listening to the voices of Virginia.

And people are anxious and worried about losing their jobs, and their homes.  Fearful that the rising national debt will rob our children of the opportunities we had. And frustrated, really frustrated that Washington continues to ignore us.

One of my heroes, Thomas Jefferson said that the sum of good government is a wise and frugal Government… that shall not take from the mouths of labor the bread they have earned.

I believe that these principles are as true today as they were at the foundation of our United States.

The pivotal elections coming up in 2012 are going to determine the trajectory of our country, whether the opportunity to achieve the American Dream will continue to decline, or begin to ascend again.

Friends, it’s time for an American comeback.

A comeback with leaders in Washington who listen to We The People, adhere to foundational principles, rein in spending and start creating opportunities for more jobs.

Now to get we’re going to need more leaders listening to Virginia voices.

Leaders who will fight to Repeal and replace this government mandated healthcare experiment, Pass a balanced budget amendment and the line-item veto, And reduce our families’ energy costs by unleashing our American resources and creativity.

Today I’m announcing my candidacy for the U.S. Senate.

You know me as someone willing to fight for the people of Virginia,  And I’d like the responsibility to fight for you again.

Hire me on for six years and I pledge to work hard restoring freedom, personal responsibility and opportunity for all.

Our cause is one we all share.

To bring Virginia’s voices and values back to Washington.

And Susan and I sure look forward to seeing you on the trail ahead, listening and discussing ideas for achievable reforms that’ll put our country back on the path to prosperity.

Thank you and please stay strong for freedom.

For most law-abiding citizens, the groan-worthy chore of jury service is usually their closest brush with the American legal system.

Not so for two of D.C.’s top politicos, who have been spotted in the last week reporting for jury duty.

Last week, Supreme Court Justice Elena Kagan appeared for duty at a superior court in Washington D.C.  And today, Vice President (and former Senate Judiciary Commitee chairman) Joe Biden showed up in his home state of Delaware to answer his summons.

In a statement, the Vice President’s office described Biden’s afternoon in court as service “in his capacity as a private citizen.” He was dismissed Monday without being called to serve on a jury. (Kagan was also dismissed after a few hours.)  

"I don't consider myself different than any other person," Biden said. "This is important ... It is an honor to be a part of the system.”

So, could Biden have been chosen to serve on a jury?

Technically, it was possible.

There’s no specific exemption that prevents celebrities – political or otherwise – from having to show up for jury duty or serve during a trial, although they are usually granted “hardship” exceptions if they request them. But many of Washington’s biggest luminaries have been called to serve – and there have been a handful of high-profile politicians who have been selected -- with some even being elected to lead their peers as jury foremen.

“It rarely happens, but it does happen,” says Dr. Jeffrey Frederick, the director of Jury Research Services at the National Legal Research Group and the author of “Mastering Voir Dire and Jury Selection.”

During the process of “voir dire” – or the questioning of potential jurors - attorneys in a case have the option of dismissing a certain number of potential jurors with no questions asked as long as they are not rejecting individuals on a discriminatory basis. Lawyers can also make the case to a judge that a potential juror’s background or beliefs make him or her unable to judge the case fairly.

But, Frederick says, the argument that a jury shouldn’t contain a legal expert -- like Biden, a former chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, or Kagan,  a former Solicitor General and a Supreme Court Justice – probably wouldn’t fly.

“Just knowing the law doesn’t mean that you can’t serve,” he said.

Case in point:  Former county prosecutor and onetime Democratic presidential nominee Sen. John Kerry got the green light to sit on a jury for a 2005 Massachusetts case involving injury claims resulting from a car accident.  Kerry, who was elected foreman, said at the time that he was “a little surprised” that attorneys in the case didn’t object to his placement on the jury but that he “enjoyed” the experience.

Similarly, Mayor Rudy Giuliani’s status as New York City’s top official and a former federal prosecutor did not prevent him from serving as the jury foreman on a personal injury case in 1999.

A sitting president has not served on a jury in the modern era, but several recent commanders-in-chief have received a summons in the mail. Presidents Ronald Reagan, George W. Bush, and Bill Clinton were all summoned for jury duty but later let off the hook by the courts. (Clinton said that he would be willing to serve on a 2003 case involving a gang shooting, but he was dismissed by the judge.)  

Biden, who last served jury duty in 2000, said today that he’d like to see the current president follow his lead.

“I hope the president serves in Chicago if he is called,” Biden said.

But if he delivered the same advice to Obama last year, it went unheeded.  Almost exactly a year ago today, Obama was granted a request to be excused from reporting for duty at a county courthouse in a Chicago suburb.

His excuse? Obama was – as he is today - preparing for his first State of the Union address.

Rahm Emanuel (D), a former White House chief of staff

Rahm Emanuel might not qualify to run for mayor after all.

NBC Chicago reports:

Rahm Emanuel's residency fight just took a turn for the worse. The Illinois Appellate Court ruled 2-1 to overturn a Chicago Board of Elections decision to allow Rahm Emanuel on the mayoral ballot. Rahm's Attorney Kevin Forde says "its a surprise."

*** UPDATE *** Here's the court's opinion.

From NBC's Athena Jones
At his press briefing, White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs announced that joining Daniel Hernandez in the first lady's box at tomorrow's State of the Union will be other figures from the Tucson tragedy: the family of Christina-Taylor Green and also Dr. Peter Rhee, one of Rep. Giffords' doctors.

President Obama at last year's State of the Union

Obama’s SOTU to emphasize the future and competitiveness… He’ll also discuss bipartisan cooperation, job creation, deficit reduction, and investments… Republicans, meanwhile, this week zero in on spending cuts… NBC/WSJ poll finds a divided (and unsure) public on how to eliminate the deficit… The Tea Party flexes its muscles in New Hampshire… And George Allen is expected to announce his Senate bid, setting up (potentially) a rematch against Jim Webb.

From NBC's Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** Back to the future: In an email over the weekend to his grassroots supporters, President Obama previewed his State of the Union address, which he’ll deliver on Tuesday night. Obama’s message: He’s going to focus on the future. “My principal focus, my number one focus, is going be making sure that we are competitive, that we are growing, and we are creating jobs not just now but well into the future,” he said. “How do we make sure that people have good jobs with good benefits? How do we make sure that somebody who has a good idea can suddenly start a business? How are we going to make sure that we have the most innovative, dynamic economy in the world? And how do we make sure that our kids are able to compete with workers anywhere in the world?” You'll recall, the White House tried a version of this message on the campaign trail last fall with its "made in America" sloganeering. It didn't quite take off at the time, as spending and size/scope of government issues crowded it out.

*** Bipartisan cooperation, job creation, deficit reduction, and investments: On “TODAY,” NBC’s Savannah Guthrie further previewed Tuesday’s speech. Aides told Guthrie that Obama will emphasize working with Republicans whenever possible. He’ll also talk about the need for job creation, especially by increasing exports. And he’ll discuss the need for tough decisions on spending to reduce the deficit (a senior aide says the president will be fairly specific about spending cuts, but cautions not to expect something as comprehensive as the budget itself, which will be unveiled in a few weeks.). At the same time, however, Obama will call for “investments” in key areas like education and infrastructure. Guthrie also has this nugget: Daniel Hernandez, the hero intern from the Tucson shootings, will be in the first lady's box for the state of the union.

Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY)

*** Republicans zero in on spending: Meanwhile, Republicans this week will be focused on spending cuts. And they are reacting to the president's use of "investments" with a jaundiced eye, as both House Majority Leader Cantor and Senate Majority Leader McConnell singled out the term Sunday as cover for "spending." The Washington Post says House Republicans "will consider a resolution that would enact immediate and drastic spending cuts to domestic programs of nearly every variety. The resolution was designed to give Republicans a platform on spending to contrast with Obama's State of the Union message." And the New York Times adds: "In a series of carefully choreographed appearances on Sunday morning talk shows here, Republicans sought to draw the battle lines for the Tuesday night speech over government spending. With Mr. Obama planning to call for 'investments' of tax dollars in specific areas like education, infrastructure and technology, Republicans insisted that 'investment' was just another name for spending that the nation can ill afford."

*** A divided (and unsure) public on how to eliminate the deficit: While Americans, according to polls, want to reduce federal spending, they’re unclear how to achieve that goal. In our recent NBC/WSJ survey, 47% said that budget deficit can solely be eliminated by cutting wasteful spending, versus 46% who say it will take a combination of spending cuts and tax increases. And get this: When those wasteful-spending-cuts-only folks are told that the deficit can’t be eliminated entirely that way, 32% of them advocate cutting important programs (like Social Security and Medicare), 29% want to raise taxes, and 30% call to postpone eliminating the deficit. Bottom line: Everyone says they want to reduce the deficit, but the American public is unsure -- and not all that informed -- how to get there. There's no popular solution to the debt problem. Whatever is agreed (if anything is agreed to) will be politically unpopular with a good chunk of the electorate. So the two parties either hold hands and jump off the cliff together, or…

Tea Party activist Jack Kimball, the newly elected chairman of the New Hampshire GOP.

*** The Tea Party flexes its muscles in New Hampshire: If you thought the Tea Party’s influence on the Republican Party had diminished after the November midterms, think again. Over the weekend, a Tea Party-backed candidate (Jack Kimball) defeated the establishment-backed choice (Juliana Bergeron) in the contest for chair of the New Hampshire Republican Party. As the New York Times put it, “The race was watched as a sign of how much influence Tea Party groups will exert here in the lead-up to New Hampshire’s presidential primary, the first in the nation, tentatively scheduled for Feb. 14, 2012. Mr. Kimball wasted no time in saying, minutes after his election, that he wanted the state’s Republican primary voters to choose a ‘good, strong conservative’ candidate.” On the one hand, it’s not surprising that a state that gave Pat Buchanan a presidential primary victory would elect a Tea Party person to head the state GOP. On the other hand, you can’t write off the independent vote in the Granite State. By the way, keep an eye on what's going on in state GOP elections, not just for party chair but for committee member posts, etc. There's a new breed of conservative activist getting involved in state politics, crowding out some longtime establishment types.

Former Sen. George Allen (R-VA)

*** George Allen’s rematch: Former Virginia Sen. George Allen (R) -- once considered a leading GOP presidential candidate before he lost his seat to Jim Webb (D) -- is expected today to announce he’s running for old job again in 2012. But keep this in mind: While rematches are tough in general, a pre-Macaca Allen beat a relatively weak Chuck Robb (D) by just 52%-48% in 2000, a year Al Gore didn’t even compete in Virginia (and lost the state 52%-44%). Of course, the Democrats still have to convince Webb to run for re-election. But if Webb does -- or if Tim Kaine takes his place if he doesn’t -- it could be much more difficult than many are realizing for Allen to win if Obama’s re-election chances are looking strong. Be careful handicapping this race ONLY through the prism of 2006 or 2010; presidential years dramatically alter the Virginia electorate.

Countdown Chicago’s mayoral election: 29 days
Countdown to Election Day 2011: 288 days
Countdown to the Iowa caucuses: 378 days
* Note: When the IA caucuses take place depends on whether other states move up

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On Sunday, the New York Times previewed Obama’s State of the Union, which he’ll deliver on Tuesday. “President Obama will outline an agenda for ‘winning the future’ in his State of the Union address on Tuesday night, striking a theme of national unity and renewal as he stresses the need for government spending in key areas and an attack on the budget deficit. Mr. Obama previewed the themes in a video e-mailed Saturday evening to supporters who had helped in his election campaign. But the video made plain that his speech would be geared more broadly toward the political center, to independent voters and business owners and executives alienated by the expansion of government and the partisan legislative fights of the past two years.”

The Washington Post editorializes, "'WE CAN no longer afford to leave the hard choices for the next budget, the next administration or the next generation.' This was what President Obama had to say when he unveiled his budget - two years ago. We quoted his statement again last year, as the president released the fiscal 2011 budget, as a reminder of the central, unmet challenge facing the administration. We return to it because the problem of mounting debt is even more urgently true today. Time is running out for Mr. Obama to propose those hard choices and, more important, to fight for their adoption and implementation. We do not doubt the sincerity of his concern about the nation's precarious fiscal state. But we remain unpersuaded, and increasingly concerned, about the seriousness of his resolve to do something about it.”

Democratic pollster Geoff Garin offered Obama this advice in National Journal: “He should not give a typical State of the Union speech that is a laundry list of issues. In that regard, it’s OK with me if he leaves a lot out. This ought to be a speech that drives to a single conclusion rather than lots of different conclusions…”

What are progressives looking for in Obama’s address? Writes David Corn: “Progressives will be listening on Tuesday night to what Obama has to say about policy matters -- Social Security, job creation, Afghanistan. They will be quite sensitive to any hints that he's willing to follow the suggestions of deficit hawks on Social Security and budget cuts. (In this speech, Obama will continue his tightrope walk: hailing government efforts to keep the anemic recovery going, while calling for a path toward balancing the government's books.) But most of all, they will be looking for signs that Obama is willing to battle the conservative and Republican forces that politically outmaneuvered him this past year.”

E.J. Dionne has a similar suggestion. “Obama will no doubt call for bipartisan cooperation to achieve long-term fiscal balance, but he should also be prepared to fight. With this crowd, his slogan should be: hope, but verify.”

The Hill gives seven reasons Obama will be tough to beat in 2012: 1) Incumbents are tough to beat; 2) Obama’s move to the center; 3) The economy is showing signs of life; 4) Presidential elections are usually more about personality than policies; 5) Democrats still have fresh memories of Bush; 6). RNC debt; 7) People like divided government.

The AP: “Former secretary of state Colin Powell ruled out a return to government service yesterday but said he still supports President Obama even though he hasn’t yet decided whom to vote for in 2012.”

President Obama and other have op-eds in USA Today commemorating what would have been Ronald Reagan’s 100th birthday; Reagan’s birthday is Feb. 6.

By the way, the Seattle Post-Intelligencer’s Connelly looks at Reagan’s record and agrees with Reagan’s son, Ron, that the elder Reagan, so lionized by today’s right, couldn’t have won the Republican nomination today.