From NBC's Mark Murray
First Read has learned that House Republicans will unveil their agenda for the next Congress -- i.e., their version of a Contract with America -- on Thursday in Sterling, VA, according to House Minority Leader John Boehner's office.

Sterling, located in Virginia's 10th Congressional district, was once a reliably Republican area but has trended blue in the last five years. Its residents supported George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004 but swung for Obama in the 2008 election. The district also voted for Democrats Gov. Tim Kaine in 2005 and Sen. Jim Webb in 2006.

The middle strikes back… Fear and loathing at the Values Voter Summit… Newt Gingrich -- an unserious man?... The 2012 Gang of Moderates?... Obama to campaign for Sestak, while Biden stumps for Strickland… DSCC hits O’Donnell with new TV ad, as O’Donnell becomes the first Senate candidate (we know of) who has admitted to dabbling in witchcraft… Abercrombie wins Hawaii’s Dem gubernatorial primary… And profiling OH-18.

From NBC's Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** The middle strikes back: After Christine O’Donnell’s victory last week, the middle of the Republican Party is now striking back. First, Lisa Murkowski announced late Friday that she was mounting a write-in bid, which has the potential to complicate the Alaska Senate race for Republicans (she refers to her GOP foe, Joe Miller, as an "extremist"). Next, on “Meet the Press,” Colin Powell said the Tea Party movement isn’t really addressing the issues. “I want to cut spending. I want to have lower taxes. But how do you do that?” he asked. Third, GOP Sen. Susan Collins took this shot at fellow Sen. Jim DeMint: “It is a new and shocking development to have a member of our conference opposing incumbent Republicans.” And fourth, the Sunday New York Times front-paged a story how New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg -- once a Republican and now an independent -- is working to help elect centrist Democrats and Republicans. “Look, people are angry,” he told the Times. “Their anger is understandable… Anger, however, is not a government strategy. It’s not a way to govern.”

*** Fear and loathing in DC: But there was plenty of anger at last week’s Values Voter Summit in DC, where Mike Pence won the presidential-preference straw poll. Here was Alabama Republican Dale Peterson, who was featured in some of the more colorful TV ads this cycle: “I may get arrows and bullets shot at me or something, but we've got a guy that hates America, I'm just gonna go ahead and say it. OK. Until we get rid of Barry, or Barack, or-- I haven't seen his little feet on that birth certificate, so I don't know what he is, alright.” Here was Gary Bauer: "The cause of the violence is an Islamic culture that keeps hundreds of millions of people right on the edge or murder and mayhem 24 hours a day!” And here was Newt Gingrich: “On the one front, we have a secular, socialist machine led by Obama, Pelosi and Reid, and on the other front we have radical Islamists, who would fundamentally change this country into a system none of us would recognize.”

*** An Unserious Man: Indeed, for someone who has been admired for his ideas, Gingrich in the last two years has been reaching in the bottom of the barrel in American politics. In addition to his comments at the Values Voter Summit, Gingrich said that the best way to understand Obama was through his “Kenyan, anti-colonial behavior." And in 2009, he called Sonia Sotomayor a racist. If he runs in 2012, are these comments enough to disqualify him as a serious presidential candidate? Bottom line: He is on his way to forfeiting legitimacy as serious voice inside the Republican Party. In fact, both Powell and Bill Clinton ganged up on Newt on “Meet” yesterday. Here was Powell: “Mr. Gingrich does these things from time to time with a big, bold statement... And he does it occasionally to make news and to also stir up dust.” And here was Clinton: “Well, keep in mind, after the 1994 election, one of the first things that Speaker Gingrich said was that Hillary and I were the enemy of normal Americans.” But at what point is Gingrich no longer excused for this talk with, "Oh, it's Newt being Newt." He's not an unfiltered politician, but someone who is actually very careful about what he says; this isn't the crazy aunt or uncle in the basement.

*** The Gang of Moderates: Here’s one other point we want to make about the middle striking back: Note these senators who are all up in 2012: Snowe, Dick Lugar, Jon Tester, Claire McCaskill, Bob Corker, Bob Casey, and Jim Webb. What do they all have in common? They’re all moderates, and all of them could face -- potentially -- tough primaries or general elections two years from now. Don’t be surprised if these folks try to work with each other to stay elected. It will be an interesting caucus to follow. This gang (of something or other) is going to make a comeback, and if they actually stick together they COULD, become a governing force. The Balkanization of the Senate appears to be inevitable.

*** Pence: I’m a Christian first: And here’s another point we want to make about the Values Voter Summit: It shouldn’t be surprising that Pence won the straw poll. Why? Because out of all the potential 2012ers, he made his Christianity front and center. “I’m a Christian, a conservative and a Republican in that order,” he said. And note his use of the word "conservative" before "Republican"; that's also something the base likes to hear. They are angry enough at the Republican Party, so branding one's self as a "conservative" is how many of these Washington Republicans or establishment Republicans can attempt to show some distance from what the base has NOT liked about the GOP.

*** Obama’s day: At noon ET, President Obama participates in a town-hall discussion on jobs that’s sponsored by CNBC. Then, later in the afternoon, he heads to Philly to host three fundraising events for Democratic Senate nominee Joe Sestak and the DNC. Meanwhile, Vice President Biden today campaigns for Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland.

*** DSCC hits O’Donnell in TV ad: The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is airing a new TV ad in Delaware that hits O'Donnell (R) for not paying her previous campaign aides, for racking up debt during her '08 campaign, and for not paying her taxes. “We don't know a lot about Christine O'Donnell. But here's what we do know: She'll fit right in, in Washington,” the ad’s narrator says. “O'Donnell spends money she doesn't have. Hired employees she didn't pay. Stiffed businesses. Didn't pay her taxes.” Of course, the biggest story involving O’Donnell is the video clip of her admitting that she “dabbled into witchcraft.”

*** M-U-R-K-O-W-S-K-I: We'll have more on the Alaska Senate race later this week, as well as the power these indie/third party candidacies might have in helping the Democrats hang on to House and Senate seats they'd otherwise lose. But keep this in mind about Alaska: The Democrats may not be able to put this Senate seat in play, even with Murkowski write-in bid. The base Democratic vote has proven to be VERY weak in federal races in non-presidential election years. In the seven House or Senate general elections dating back to 1990, the average percentage for the Democratic nominee for either race is 27%. The high was 40% in the 2006 House race; the low was 11% in the 2002 Senate race (Stevens win). The generic Dem vote in Alaska is a lot lower than in most states. And Check out Murkowski's Web site; there’s no use of the word "Republican.” She'll be appealing to some union members (huge chunk in Alaska actually) and some Democrats.

*** Aloha and goodbye to the primary season: In the final competitive primary of the cycle, ex-Hawaii Congressman Neil Abercrombie “crushed former Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann 60 percent to 38 percent” in the Democratic primary for governor, the Honolulu Star Advertiser reported. In the general election, Abercrombie will face Lt. Gov. Duke Aiona (R).

*** 75 House races to watch: OH-18: The Democratic nominee is two-term incumbent Zack Space, and the GOP nominee is state Sen. Bob Gibbs. McCain won 53% of the vote in the district in 2008, while Bush got 57% in ’04. As of June 30, Space had $1.3 million in the bank, versus Gibbs’ $200,000. Space voted for the stimulus and cap-and-trade, but voted no on health care. Both Cook and Rothenberg rate the contest as Lean Democrat.

*** More midterm news: In Connecticut, Richard Blumenthal has a TV ad responding to attacks from Team McMahon.

Countdown to Election Day 2010: 43 days

Click here to sign up for First Read emails.
Text FIRST to 622639, to sign up for First Read alerts to your mobile phone.
Check us out on Facebook and also on Twitter.

"Would-be Speaker John Boehner asserted last week that he can manage a strongly conservative, tea-party-inspired majority next year, but potential government shutdowns and efforts to terminate earmarks are already emerging as issues that could divide his party," Roll Call writes. "Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa), one of the most outspoken conservatives in the House, said last week that he wants Boehner and other House leaders to sign a 'blood oath' that they will include a repeal of health care reform in every appropriations bill next year, even if President Barack Obama vetoes the bills and a government shutdown occurs."

The Washington Post notes the handful of Dem House members and candidates who are putting distance between themselves and Speaker Nancy Pelosi. "Democrats from a number of states, including Texas, Ohio and North Carolina, are running away from Pelosi in a harsh political climate. Distancing one's self from the speaker is nothing new for many Democrats, including Edwards, but the number of incumbents and the volume of their criticism of the party House leader is larger than it has been in past election cycles - and the volume of their criticism is louder."

It's that time of year again. Roll Call does its 50 Richest Members edition. Coming in at No. 1--Sen. John Kerry, followed by Rep. Darrell Issa (R-CA), then Rep. Jane Harman (D-CA), Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D-WV), Michael McCaul (R-TX), Mark Warner (D-VA), Jared Polis (D-CO), Vern Buchanan (R-FL), Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ), Dianne Feinstein (D-CA), Alan Grayson (D-FL), Nancy Pelosi (D-CA).

A gathering of social conservatives selected Indiana Republican Mike Pence on Saturday as their top choice for the 2012 presidential ticket.

Pence, whose speech to the group Friday urged unabashed discussion of social issues as well as fiscal concerns in the run up to the 2010 and 2012 elections, won 24 percent of the vote in the presidential preference straw poll held at this year's Family Research Council's Values Voter Summit in Washington D.C.

"Those who would have us ignore the battle being fought over life, marriage and religious liberty have forgotten the lessons of history," Pence said in his address at the gathering Friday. "America's darkest moments have come when economic arguments trumped moral principles."

Pence received about 12 percent of the vote in last year's straw poll, coming in just behind former vice presidential nominee and Tea Party darling Sarah Palin.

Palin, who did not speak at the event this year, came in a distant fifth in this year's poll.

Former Arkansas Gov. Huckabee, who easily grabbed first place in the conference's 2009 poll, dropped to second place this year, receiving 22 percent of the vote.

Presumed presidential contender Mitt Romney, who narrowly won the top spot in the 2007 survey over Huckabee (although the result was disputed because of a wide divide in votes cast in-person and online), came in third, with 13 percent.

In his speech to the group on Friday, Romney concentrated on foreign policy and fiscal issues, doling out relatively few lines that catered to the attendees' strong opposition to gay marriage and abortion.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who spoke to the group Saturday morning, came in fourth.

Not appearing on the straw poll ballot was Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, who asked to be removed from the list because he was unable to attend the conference. He is concluding a trade mission in China and Japan this weekend.

Organizers added the name of Gov. Mitch Daniels of Indiana to the ballot after Pawlenty's was removed. Daniels, though rarely mentioned by name, was a frequent target for criticism by the summit's speakers --- notably by Pence -- for his statement that conservatives should declare a "truce" over social issues and coalesce around Republican proposals to control spending and jumpstart the economy.

Others on the ballot included Sen. John Thune of South Dakota, Sen. Jim DeMint of South Carolina, Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey, and ex-Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania.

*** CORRECTION *** An earlier version of this post misidentified the state represented by Sen. John Thune. It is corrected above.

From msnbc.com's Carrie Dann:

Three days after she astounded political observers by upsetting a longtime Republican lawmaker in Delaware's Senate primary, Christine O'Donnell made her national debut to the conservative base Friday, delivering anti-"elitism" zingers and channeling backer Sarah Palin in a rousingly-received address to a conservative gathering in Washington D.C.

O'Donnell, who has full-throatedly endorsed the Tea Party and been flatly declared unelectable by establishment Republicans, told attendees at the Family Research Council's Values Voters Summit that Washington insiders have marginalized the conservative political movement because "they don't get us."

"They call us wacky. They call us wingnuts," she said.

"We call us we the people," she added to thundrous applause.

The Tea Party movement's simple message to big government, O'Donnell said: "You are not the boss of me."

O'Donnell's address, punctuated by frequenct dinging of the "DC cocktail crowd," the "ruling class," and the "green police," drew a sharp contrast between an activist "us" and an establishment "them" -- the same sentiment that endeared her most prominent endorser - Sarah Palin - to many Republicans. "There are more of us than there are of them," she declared.

Attendees at the gathering of social conservatives received O'Donnell with a standing ovation as members of the press hurried to the filing area in time to hear her address. She won hearty applause for one-liners like this one skewering the political left: "They'll buy your teenaged daughter an abortion, but they wont let her buy a sugary soda in her school's vending machine."

Unlike some of the day's previous Republican speakers, O'Donnell has blurred no lines about her affiliation with the Tea Party. On Friday, she noted that the movement can seem disorganized and strident. "We're loud, we're rowdy, [and] we're passionate," she said, adding that while it "isn't tame ... boy, it sure is good."

The Delaware Republican's chances of winning the general election the same state that sent Joe Biden to Capitol Hill are considered very low in light of her conservative views and a torrent of opposition research detailing controversial statements she has made in the past. But her debut today likely ensures that - even six weeks from now - we'll be far from seeing the last of her.

The last primary of the 2010 cycle in Hawaii, Congress to take on "Don't Ask, Don't Tell," Gingrich addresses Values Voters, Obama raises money for Sestak, addresses the U.N.

FULL VIDEO HERE.

Record poverty levels during the last decade underscore the need for strict regulatory measures like a consumer protection agency, President Obama said as he introduced Elizabeth Warren, who will serve as the special assistant to the White House on the creation of the new Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

A Census Bureau report released Thursday showed that the number of Americans living in poverty reached a 51-year high of 43.6 million Americans, or one in seven people. Median household income also fell 4.2 percent by 2009 since the recession began in 2007.

The growing number of families who fall below the poverty line means that not only must the recession be ended, but long-term changes put in place, Obama said.

"That's why as we dig our way out of the recession we need to set our eyes on policies that grow the middle class," he said in a Rose Garden address this afternoon.

Obama praised Elizabeth Warren, a Harvard law professor who chaired the Congressional Oversight Panel, tasked with monitoring the Treasury Department's actions to restore the economy. He called her "one of the country's fiercest advocates for the middle class" who would be the "architect" of the new bureau and advise the president and Treasury on policies that would guard against predatory lending and misleading banking information.

"For years, financial companies have been able to spend millions on their own watchdogs" like lobbyists, Obama said, adding that it was their right to do so. Now, he added, "consumers will also have a powerful watchdog; an independent watchdog whose job it is to stand up for their interests, for their family's future."

Republican Study Committee Chairman Rep. Tom Price released a statement immediately following the president's announcement, expressing his disdain at the administration's decision to appoint Warren to her position rather than subject her to a Senate confirmation hearing.

"Elizabeth Warren could conceivably hold this post for years without ever having to answer to the people's elected representatives. If that does not concern you, I don't know what will," Price said in a statement.

It's not official yet, it looks like tonight's announcement by Sen. Lisa Murkowski is likely to be a "yes" on a write-in campaign, her home state paper reports.

The Anchorage Daily News is reporting that Murkowski supporters have sent out emails inviting friends to a "kick-off event" tonight - when the incumbent lawmaker is scheduled to announce whether she will mount a write-in campaign for the November election.

Bonnie Jack, who was a Murkowski elections observer for the count of absentee votes, sent out an email this morning. “Join us at the Kick-off of Senator Lisa's campaign -- with a theme of "write in her name in and fill in the oval."

Denai'na Convention Center, third floor and hopefully out on the sunny deck, 5 pm. Bring your family including children, friends and business associates. We plan to make history!”

Jack confirmed to me that she sent the email, and indicated that obviously the conclusion to be drawn from it is that Murkowski is running

Bloggers take aim at Democratic critiques of the Tea Party today, as one liberal standard-bearer praises the group and Democratic voters in New York and Washington demonstrate, as one conservative blogger sees it, the kind of party-splitting sentiment that many political observers say is dividing the GOP on ideological faultlines.

Balloon Juice's DougJ responds to a quote by former Vermont governor and DNC chair Howard Dean that “I actually approve of most of what the tea party is doing… I think it’s great to have individuals reach out to take their own responsibility for their own [future] and lashing out against government that has really forgotten them."

I think it’s fair to say that DC elites have forgotten about the unemployed. But teatards (this is the same study I linked to before) are not disproportionately unemployed or economically disadvantaged.

Much of Bush’s 2004 re-election strategy involved firing up the teatard base (they weren’t called that before but it’s the same people).

Conservative blogger James Richardson at Red State criticizes Democrats for ousting D.C. mayor Adrien Fenty, "whose pragmatism earned him national praise," and re-electing Rep. Charlie Rangel of New York, "a 20-term legislator for Congress whose ethics probes had become a symbol of corruption and a clarion call for term limits."

With all the speculation that the GOP had been torn asunder by the Tea Party movement in its bid to refashion the party in its own image, one might be inclined to believe, wrongly, that anecdote. One splashy headline after the next has fomented the expectation that the lunatics had stormed the hospital, with loony policies abounding: Social Security to be phased out; the Department of Education to dissolve; and the 14th Amendment to be repealed.

But it was not the Republican Party that caved Tuesday night to deep-pocketed labor unions or willfully overlooked a career of stunning ethics violations in its intraparty contests in Washington and New York City. That’s the kind of change in which President Obama’s Democratic Party believes - though if generic ballot polls are an accurate indicator of the national mood, it’s not the change for which Americans signed up in 2008.

NBC's Kelly O'Donnell reports: Michelle Bachmann at the Values Voters Summit said:

"...or like Speaker Pelosi, who has been busy, uh, sticking the taxpayer with her $100,000 bar tab for alcohol on the military jets that she's flying...."

Senior Pelosi aides immediately reached out to refute Bachmann's assertion as totally false:

“Speaker Pelosi does not drink alcohol. There is no alcohol service on the domestic flights the Air Force operates for travel from Washington to San Francisco for the speaker."

From msnbc.com's Carrie Dann:

Just six weeks out from the November elections, advocates of smaller government and private-sector solutions to the nation's economic problems appear increasingly giddy at the prospect of a new Republican wave into the halls of Congress.

But for those who place social issues like federal bans on gay marriage and abortion at the top of their political wishlist, it's a little more complicated.

Four GOP leaders - each named as potential 2012 presidential candidates -- used their addresses at Friday's opening day of the socially conservative Family Research Council's Values Voter Summit to weave together economic and social issues, painting fiscal responsibility and smaller government as moral imperatives in line with Christian values.

The timing of the fifth annual meeting of social conservatives could be seen as inopportune for Republican strategists, who hope to capture the lion's share of the independent vote in the midterm elections amidst widespread dissatisfaction with Democrats' handling of the economy. Party leaders like potential presidential candidates Gov. Haley Barbour of Mississippi and Gov. Mitch Daniels of Indiana have warned that an overt focus on wedge issues like gay marriage and abortion would be unhelpful for the party's cause going into November.

On Friday, Rep. Mike Pence addressed the fissure directly, noting that GOP leaders have advised social conservatives that "the American people are focused on jobs and spending and our movement would do well to stand aside."

Pence said that it is essential that Republicans multi-task and retain their focus on social as well as fiscal issues. "We must focus on our fiscal crisis and support our troops. We must work to create jobs and protect innocent human life," he said.

He warned of the economic costs of government services if "the family continues to collapse" and urged Republican leaders to "stand for life, traditional marriage, and religious liberty without apology."

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee addressed the same divide, characterizing the financial crisis that caused the country's economic woes as "the result of the breakdown of ... character and integrity."

"We must realize there's a direct correlation between the stability of families and the stability of our economy," Huckabee said Friday. "I'm so tired of people telling me we don't want to hear about issues of the family."

Those message appeared to be a direct response to Republican leaders like Barbour and Daniels -- who was excoriated by social conservatives for proposing a "truce" on social issues in favor of a united message on economic growth.

"I’ll put my bonafides up against anybody as a social conservative," Barbour said earlier this month. “But that ain’t going to change anybody’s vote this year because people are concerned about job, the economy, growth and taxes… you are using up valuable time and resources that can be used to talk to people about what they care about.”

Tea Party darling Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., argued that economic and social positions espoused by conservatives are derived both from Christian values and constitutional tenets.

"The pursuit of happiness is about individuals having the right to the fruit of their own labors," she told the crowd. "It's that simple."

The Tea Party's emphasis on individual freedoms, she added, represents "people are reclaiming our inalieable rights given to us by almighty God."

Somewhat in contrast to the other speakers, former and presumed future presidential GOP contender Mitt Romney spoke only briefly of social issues, noting that American values "include the sanctity of life and the preservation of marriage," over 10 minutes into his address to the group.

"But the Obama administration has taken its assault to even more American values," he added, naming government intervention in health care, tax increases, school vouchers, and the passage of the Employee Free Choice Act among them.

Romney also linked America's economic system to the moral imperative to aid those in need. "America's model of innovation, capitalism, and free enterprise has lifted literally billions of the world's poor out of poverty," he said.

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Anyone who remembers Mike Huckabee from the 2008 campaign, it was his Baptist preacher folksiness and one-liners that helped him connect with base voters and activists. That propelled him to a win in Iowa, despite limited campaign structure, organization, or money.

There was no shortage of vintage Huckabee today here at the Values Voters Summit in Washington, DC, where he is the defending winner of the group's straw poll.

Some choice lines:

"We survived Barack Obama's recovery summer. I'm looking forward to our recovery fall."

"Let's convene those death panels and offer a lethal injection to congressional arrogance."

The government is "inflicting torture" to our "pockets" and "principles."

"I hope Jeremiah Wright looks out his window (the day after Election Day) and sees those chickens come home to roost."

He joked about the Dugger family, on their 19th child, and is on hand here. (They are slated to do a musical performance here.) He said, "I was worried they wouldn't be at capacity, but I heard the Duggers were here" and knew it wouldn't be a problem."

He called on the people here to be engaged and to vote this fall because a GOP-led House and Senate would be a "backstop" to the "extreme left agenda" of Obama-Pelosi.

He charged that Obama was uncomfortable leading the U.S., that he treated the White House as an "ivory tower." And that he took "three months to realize" that the BP disaster "wasn't Tony Hayward's disaster, it was his." He took another dig at Obama on the oil spill saying he seemed "more annoyed than engaged."

As was the case here for many speakers here, he conflated "moral values" with fiscal responsibility. He said the Wall Street meltdown was a "meltdown of morals."

What a week in politics… The week’s implication on 2012: good news for Obama, bad news for Romney?... It’s decision day about whether Murkowski will make her write-in bid… The Christine O’Donnell Show at today’s Values Voter Summit… Coons to appear with Biden… Palin in Iowa… The nation’s final primary -- in Hawaii -- takes place tomorrow… Obama to officially announce Elizabeth Warren at 1:30 pm ET… First Read’s Top 10 Senate takeovers (with Delaware off the list)… And our Top 10 Gov takeovers.

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** The week that was: What a week in politics. We saw the defeat of one of the last Gerald Ford Republicans (Mike Castle), as well as the birth of Sarah Palin’s doppelganger (Christine O’Donnell). And today, we could see another crazy political story (Lisa Murkowski possibly mounting a write-in bid in Alaska’s Senate race). However, it’s arguable that this week could have more impact on 2012 than this November. Indeed, the person who might be feeling the worst right now isn’t President Obama, but rather Mitt Romney. Why? Because he's heading into ’12 as the establishment front-runner, and if this past primary season has taught us anything, it’s that being the establishment front-runner isn’t a good place to be. Plus, any hopes Romney had of sort of flying OVER the Tea Party movement have been dashed. He'll have to play and play hard for this vote and it's going to shift the entire GOP field to the right. Speaking of Obama, one could argue he and the White House had a pretty good week. Why? He got a few days off from being attacked.

*** Decision day for Murkowski: As she stated earlier this week, Murkowski will decide today if she will run as a write-in candidate in Alaska Senate’s race. The National Republican Senatorial Committee is concerned enough that she might run that it fired off this statement yesterday: “Alaska’s voters have spoken, and have chosen Joe Miller as their Republican U.S. Senate nominee. If Sen. Murkowski is truly committed to doing ‘what is right’ for her state, then we hope that she will step forward and fully endorse Joe Miller’s candidacy. No matter what Sen. Murkowski decides for her own political interests in the future, Republicans are united behind Joe Miller’s nomination, and we are confident that he will be elected Alaska’s next U.S. senator in November.” If Murkowski goes write-in, Club for Growth tells us they'll do a similar "return the donations" campaign as they did with Specter and Crist.

*** The Christine O'Donnell Show: Today and tomorrow bring us another 2012 cattle call -- the Family Research Council's annual Values Voter Summit in DC -- with speeches today by Mike Huckabee (9:00 am ET), Michele Bachmann (9:25 am), Jim DeMint (10:50 am), Mike Pence (11:15 am), Romney (11:40 am), and Rick Santorum (2:00 pm). And Saturday morning, Newt Gingrich will speak (at 9:50 am). But the main event at the cattle call is suddenly the moment Christine O’Donnell takes the stage this afternoon (at 3:25 pm). It’s worth noting that O’Donnell has become a four-day national story, and that has its advantages and disadvantages. Advantage: As NBC’s Kelly O’Donnell (no relation) reported on “TODAY,” O’Donnell has raised nearly $1 million since her victory on Tuesday -- matching the amount that Dem opponent Chris Coons had in the bank as of last month. Disadvantage: Much of the attention she’s received has been negative -- stories that might not play well in blue Delaware. Then again, as we saw with Palin originally, O’Donnell could benefit in short run from the media pile on.

*** Coons to appear with Biden today: NBC’s Kelly O’Donnell also reports that, according to aides, Christine O’Donnell’s appearance today before the Values Voters Summit will "not be grandiose." She’s expected to deliver "the same message that has resonated with Delawareans and everyday Americans." Meanwhile, Coons will appear with Vice President Biden at an event this afternoon in Delaware. Here’s how the Wilmington News Journal described last night’s O’Donnell-Coons forum: “Coons said he would not attack O'Donnell's character... Asked early on about past remarks, O'Donnell sought to distance herself from some of her most controversial statements, made as head of the Savior's Alliance for Lifting the Truth, equating masturbation with adultery.”

*** Palin in Iowa: Speaking of Palin above, the former Alaska governor tonight headlines the Ronald Reagan dinner in Iowa. The Des Moines Register: “The political eyes of the nation and world will be watching Sarah Palin's scheduled appearance in Iowa tonight for signals about her plans. More than 50 news media organizations, from as far away as London, plan to cover the Republican Party's biggest celebrity when she headlines the Iowa Republicans' marquee fundraiser in Des Moines. It's her first appearance in Iowa as a 2012 presidential prospect.”

*** Aloha -- and goodbye to the primary season: Here’s another political story that we’ll be watching this weekend: the nation’s final primary takes place on Saturday, in Hawaii. The marquee contest there is the Democratic primary for governor, led by former U.S. Rep. Neil Abercrombie and Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann. As you’ll see below, we rank Hawaii’s gubernatorial race as a top Dem pick-up opportunity.

*** Obama to announce Warren’s hire: At 1:30 pm ET, President Obama will officially announce his hire of Elizabeth Warren to advise the creation of the new Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Warren has written this post on the White House’s blog: “The president asked me, and I enthusiastically agreed, to serve as an assistant to the president and special adviser to the secretary of the Treasury on the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. He has also asked me to take on the job to get the new CFPB started-right now. The president and I are committed to the same vision on CFPB, and I am confident that I will have the tools I need to get the job done.”

*** First Read’s Top 10 Senate takeovers: As promised, with Christine O'Donnell's victory on Tuesday, we've moved Delaware off our list of the Senate seats most likely to switch parties in November. Still, all 10 here are GOP pick-up opportunities. The number in parentheses is our ranking from last week.
1. North Dakota (1): Solid R
2. Arkansas (3): Probable R
3. Indiana (4): Probable R
4. Pennsylvania (5): Lean R
5. Illinois (6): Toss Up
6. Colorado (7): Toss Up
7. Nevada (8): Toss Up
8. Wisconsin (9): Toss Up
9. California (11): Toss Up
10. Washington (10): Toss Up

*** Nos. 11 through 21: Florida (Lean R), Missouri (Lean R), Kentucky (Lean R), West Virginia (Lean D), Ohio (Lean R), New Hampshire (Lean R), Connecticut (Lean D), North Carolina (Probable R), Louisiana (Probable R), Alaska (Probable R), Delaware (Probable D).

*** First Read’s Top 10 governor takeovers: And here is our ranking of the 10 most likely governorships to switch parties in November. The number in parentheses is our ranking from last month.
1. Wyoming (1): Solid R
2. Kansas (2): Solid R
3. Tennessee (3): Probable R
4. Michigan (5): Probable R
5. Iowa (4): Probable R
6. Rhode Island (unranked): Toss Up -- either the Democratic nominee (Frank Caprio) or the independent (Lincoln Chafee) is likely to win
7. Oklahoma (7): Lean R
8. Hawaii (6): Lean D
9. Pennsylvania (8): Lean R
10. Ohio (unranked): Lean R

*** Our gubernatorial Toss Ups: CA, FL, GA, IL, MA, ME, MD, MN, NM, OR, RI, TX, VT

Countdown to HI primaries: 1 day
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 46 days

Click here to sign up for First Read emails.
Text FIRST to 622639, to sign up for First Read alerts to your mobile phone.
Check us out on Facebook and also on Twitter.

"Elizabeth Warren said Friday that she 'enthusiastically agreed' with President Barack Obama’s request that she play a special advisory role in leading the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, an agency that she said will require everyone 'to pull up our socks and get to work,'" Roll Call writes.

Here’s the post Warren wrote on the White House’s blog: “The president asked me, and I enthusiastically agreed, to serve as an assistant to the president and special adviser to the secretary of the Treasury on the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. He has also asked me to take on the job to get the new CFPB started-right now. The president and I are committed to the same vision on CFPB, and I am confident that I will have the tools I need to get the job done.
President Obama understands the importance of leveling the playing field again for families and creating protections that work not just for the wealthy or connected, but for every American. The new consumer bureau is based on a pretty simple idea: people ought to be able to read their credit card and mortgage contracts and know the deal. They shouldn't learn about an unfair rule or practice only when it bites them-way too late for them to do anything about it.”

The Hartford Courant on Obama stumping for Richard Blumenthal yesterday: President Barack Obama swooped almost literally into Republican Linda McMahon's backyard Thursday to raise money for Democrats and the wrestling maven's opponent at a big-money fundraiser in Connecticut's richest town... 'There are very few races that are more important to me than the race for United States Senate here,' Obama said... 'Dick, she has more money than you — just in case there was any confusion,' Obama said to Blumenthal as the crowd laughed.

"In a report being released Friday by Vice President Joe Biden, the White House pushes back against criticism of its $814 billion stimulus program and highlights 100 projects that it says are creating jobs and growing the economy," the AP writes. "Republicans cite a nearly 10 percent unemployment rate in arguing that the stimulus has been a costly failure."

"Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and Republicans are betting voters will agree that tax cuts for the rich could provide a trickle-down boost to the ailing economy, relying once again on Reagan-era principles sacred to the GOP," the Boston Globe writes. "It’s a tough pitch to a skeptical electorate, and so far polls show a majority of Americans surveyed disagree with Republicans on extending tax cuts to the wealthiest 3 percent of taxpayers."

The AP on its latest poll: "More than half the Americans surveyed supported raising taxes on the nation’s rich, in a new poll that also showed deep political divisions over the issue as Democrats struggle with President Obama’s call to boost levies on the wealthy. Less than 50 days from elections that Republicans hope will hand them control of Congress, the Associated Press-GfK Poll is otherwise stuffed with encouraging signs for the GOP. Huge majorities called the economy sickly and said Congress is doing its job badly. By a 46 percent to 41 percent tally, people wanted Republicans to steer the economy, the first GOP edge on that number one concern of voters polled. And while respondents were evenly split over whether they preferred their district’s Democratic or GOP congressional candidate, those likeliest to vote tilted toward the Republicans, 53 percent to 43 percent."

The Washington Post front-pages, “The playbook for winning the Republican presidential nomination begins with a set of inviolable rules: Start early, raise millions, build an organization, and trudge across the country seeking the blessing of mayors and money men. But in a world where the most careful plans can be rendered obsolete by a Sarah Palin tweet (see: Primary, Delaware), many in the party have begun to question whether those old, pre-'tea party' rules still apply. So as the would-be 2012 GOP presidential candidates are salivating at what they see as President Obama's growing vulnerabilities, they are also reassessing their assumptions about what it will take to win."

Does this translate to the fall? "Just 21% of those asked have a favorable view of Palin, according to a CBS News/New York Times poll, which also found that 19% support the Tea Party."

"Parties and politicians preparing for the final months of the 2010 election cycle have opened a record number of joint fundraising committees to allow donors to write larger checks than individual campaigns can collect," Roll Call writes. "Campaigns have filed paperwork for more than 700 such groups since the beginning of 2009 — doubling the number that were active during the 2006 midterm elections, according to a CQ MoneyLine study of Federal Election Commission records."

“The liberal group MoveOn announced … that it is funding two television ads in New Hampshire and Kentucky seeking to tie Republican Senate candidates Kelly Ayotte and Rand Paul to the Chamber of Commerce,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

DELAWARE: Stu Rothenberg predicts Christine O'Donnell's defeat this fall: "[I]n Delaware, winning conservatives isn’t enough. It isn’t close to enough. And that’s why Christine O’Donnell and her tea party allies just won a battle but will lose the war." And he reminds this to conservatives: "As South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint might say, better 30 dependable conservatives than 51 Republicans in name only. But Castle would have voted to organize the Senate for the GOP and would have voted most of the time with his party. Chris Coons, the New Castle County executive and the Democratic Senate nominee, will vote to have Democrats organize the Senate and will vote with his party virtually all of the time."

At last night’s debate between Democratic Senate nominee Chris Coons and Republican nominee Christine O’Donnell, both “steered clear of the character attacks that marked a rancorous GOP primary fight during Thursday night's first debate of their race for the U.S. Senate,” the Wilmington News-Journal writes. “Coons said he would not attack O'Donnell's character, a tactic employed by her own party in the Republican primary that ended Tuesday with her defeat of party favorite Mike Castle.”

HAWAII: The AP goes to Hawaii to preview the governor's race there. The primary on Saturday is the last of this busy and tumultuous primary season: After a bitter campaign marked by mudslinging and contentious divisions over race, religion and gay rights, two longtime political rivals in Hawaii meet in a primary Saturday to decide which Democrat will try to recapture the governor's seat from Republican hands after eight years. Former U.S. Rep. Neil Abercrombie and former Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann, who first faced each other in a primary 24 years ago, are competing in a tight race for the chance to succeed Gov. Linda Lingle in President Barack Obama's birth state."

MISSOURI: Fox News Channel is suing Democratic Senate nominee Robin Carnahan for using its footage in a campaign ad, calling it a “smear campaign,” Radio and TV Business Report writes. “Charging the Carnahan campaign with violating the Copyright Act, the suit begins, ‘In a smear ad against political rival Roy Blunt, Defendant Robin Carnahan for Senate, Inc. usurped proprietary footage from the Fox News Network to made it appear – falsely – that FNC and Christopher Wallace, one of the nation’s most respected political journalists, are endorsing Robin Carnahan’s campaign for United States Senate.’”

NEW YORK: Despite Carl Paladino calling former Gov. George Pataki and "degenerate idiot," Pataki said he'll endorse him.

PENNSYLVANIA: "For many in this stretch of rolling forests, small towns and dairy farms, images of the two U.S. Senate candidates are shaped by the steady stream of television commercials that cast Democrat Joe Sestak and Republican Pat Toomey as extremists who are wrecking the economy," the AP writes. "Voters know almost nothing else about the candidates, both of whom live a four-hour drive away and seldom pass through the expansive north-central Pennsylvania corridor."

From NBC's Carrie Dann and Ken Strickland
With over 70 percent of voters saying that they disapprove of the job Congress is doing, it’s not surprising that many of them are itching to “throw out the bums,” as GOP Sen. Jim DeMint put it on NBC's TODAY Show this morning.

But many Americans (including many First Read commenters during this week’s “Exit Interviews” series on the United States Senate) believe that it shouldn’t take an electoral defeat to show members of Congress the door.

They advocate for term limits that would cap the number of years lawmakers can serve on Capitol Hill.

The average length of service for senators this Congress is 12.8 years, just over two terms. It’s a full term longer for the senators who are leaving the chamber at the end of this year. The average length of service of the elected senators who are retiring or who were voted out this year (not including Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski, who will announce whether or not she will mount a write-in candidacy tomorrow) is 18.8 years.

Republican Sen. Sam Brownback is retiring this year because he limited himself to serving only two full terms. He believes that all senators should follow his example.

"You can find 100 competent people to do these jobs year in, year out," said the Kansas lawmaker in his exit interview with NBC News. "And you ought to have a change of blood and a change of ideas."

Brownback believes that, as senators serve longer, power is consolidated in fewer hands and over time creates a more partisan Congress.

Last year, Brownback joined Republicans Jim DeMint of South Carolina, Tom Coburn of Oklahoma, and Kay Bailey Hutchison of Texas in proposing an amendment that would cap Senate service at two terms. (Hutchison is currently serving her third term, having failed to win the Republican nomination for governor in her home state in March.)

Term limits are gaining steam as a campaign issue as well. Several successful Tea Party candidates – including Colorado’s Ken Buck, Kentucky’s Rand Paul, and Delaware’s Christine O’Donnell – supported the idea during their primary campaigns.

It’s a popular idea. A recent FOX News poll found that almost eight in 10 registered voters said they would like to see a cap put on how long members of Congress can serve.

Brownback, who's now running for Kansas governor, also wants term limits for Supreme Court justices. Members of the high court have served lifetime appointments since the nation’s founding.

Either suggestion presents a steep climb for would-be reformers. Implementing term limits for either senators or justices would mean a constitutional amendment – which would require either a national constitutional convention or the approval of two-thirds of both houses of Congress.

From NBC's Ken Strickland
Democratic Sen. Chris Dodd waited 27 years before he became the chairman of the Senate Banking Committee. But Republican Saxby Chambliss got the top spot on the chamber’s agriculture panel only two years after being elected senator.

What gives?

"Republicans do a better job with this than the Democrats," Dodd said during an exit interview with NBC News. "It's good for the institution."

Senate Republicans limit their chairmanships to six years. (This also applies to the "ranking member" position when the GOP is in the minority.) But Democrats allow their members to hold committee gavels indefinitely.

Dodd says he prefers the Republican way.

"I think it's good for the members. They don't get so ossified, waiting for someone to die or get defeated, or make a different choice, to move up,” Dodd said of the GOP’s more fluid system for committee leadership. “They kind of force the institution and individuals to move along."

(To be clear, the rise to chairmanship is by no means an exact science for either party, often involving luck, timing, and election results.)

Dodd spent more than 20 years each on the Senate Foreign Relations, Banking, and Health Committees, sitting behind then-Chairmen Joe Biden, Paul Sarbanes, and Ted Kennedy, respectively.

"I teased them," he said laughing, "loved [them] dearly, built great friendships with them - but for 25 years they never moved." That changed in 2007 when Sarbanes retired and Dodd took the Banking Committee gavel.

NBC's Ken Strickland sat down with nine senators departing the upper chamber this year. He asked Evan Bayh, Robert Bennett, Sam Brownback, Kit Bond, Jim Bunning, Chris Dodd, Byron Dorgan, Judd Gregg, and George Voinovich the same eight questions and a wildcard query. This excerpt was taken from the transcript of that interview. Additional reporting can be found on politics.msnbc.com

From NBC's Athena Jones
WASHINGTON, DC, Sept. 16 - Calling efforts to double U.S. exports over the next five years a top priority, President Obama said that helping American companies ship more goods and services abroad would add jobs, which are sorely needed amidst flagging GDP growth.

In a conference call with reporters yesterday previewing today's event, Commerce Secretary Gary Locke said exports -- which are up roughly 18 percent this year -- are leading the recovery from the worst recession since the 1930s. The president said today that if exports grow at 14 or 15% a year, the goal of doubling them in five years would be achievable.

"The more American companies export, the more they produce and the more they produce, the more people they hire," Obama said during brief remarks at the beginning of the first meeting of the President's Export Council (PEC). "And that means more jobs -- good jobs that often pay as much as 15 percent more than average."

The economy grew just 1.6 percent in the second quarter, revised down from a previous forecast of 2.4 percent projected earlier, and the high unemployment rate will remain a key Republican talking point as midterm elections approach.

Among the recommendations on how to boost exports put forth by advisers to the president -- including Cabinet officials and heads of trade-related government agencies -- were expanding access to credit and to information on export opportunities for small and medium-sized companies, increasing trade advocacy and export promotion efforts, removing barriers to US goods and enforcing existing trade rules.

Businesses want to see the United States seal more trade deals, something the president addressed in his remarks.

"We're also working to resolve outstanding issues with our free trade agreements with our key partners, like Korea, and to seek congressional approval as soon as possible," he said.

Obama also spoke of plans to help troops returning from Iraq and Afghanistan re-enter the workforce.

"I think it's terrific that we are going to look at a veterans retraining initiative that would help them translate their remarkable leadership skills but also their technology skills, skills they've honed in the military, into careers in the high-demand science and technology fields that will keep America economically strong and globally competitive well into the future," he said.

After the meeting, Locke joined Boeing President and CEO Jim McNerney and Xerox CEO Ursula Burns, the chair and vice chair of the PEC, respectively, outside the West Wing to take questions from reporters.

McNerney stressed the need for America to complete more free-trade agreements to keep from loosing market share to Europe, Asia and South American countries. He said some 600 trade agreements were being negotiated around the world, while the United States was working on agreements "in the single digits."

The GOP ideological struggle and what impact it will have in November. ... Remember, though, the enthusiasm gap is still the most important story this midterm. ... Elizabeth Warren, a bone to liberals? Will the 'get energized' as VP Biden warns in interview with Rachel Maddow? ... DeMint moderates tone on TODAY and interview for NIGHTLY NEWS, as GOP seeks unity. ... Obama to Connecticut -- another look at the Dem Senate firewall. ... So goes Ohio, and right now it's going Republican. ... Meg Whitman breaks financial record, upping her contribution to a whopping $119 million (!!!). ... NBC's Ken Strickland's last in "Exit Interview" series with Chris Dodd and Sam Brownback. ... And profiling OH-16.

From NBC's Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** Fired up and ready to go? While Christine O’Donnell’s victory Tuesday night has sparked discussions about the ideological struggle inside the GOP, here’s an additional question: What impact will it have on the Democratic Party and liberal voters at least as it relates to November? Will it serve as a tipping point to motivate more Democrats to go to the polls? Or will they continue to be less excited and enthusiastic than their GOP counterparts? As we’ve said before, the enthusiasm gap between Democrats and Republicans is arguably the most important story this midterm season. And it's the difference between Democrats having a shot at holding the House vs. probably losing both the House and Senate in a gigantic wave.

*** The ‘Professional Left’ and Warren: But fair or not, from what we’ve read on the blogs and in our email inboxes, some members of the “professional left” -- as White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs described them -- have been fired up more about the lack of a public option in the health-care law, Alan Simpson’s comments about Social Security, and whether or not Elizabeth Warren will head up the new consumer board than about whether Democrats hold on to Congress in November. Does that begin to change? Speaking of Warren, as we reported was likely earlier this week, President Obama is appointing her to be a “special adviser” to the president and Treasury Secretary Geithner in helping to stand up the new Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. This enables Warren to bypass a contentious confirmation process. But it’s unclear whether she will actually head up the agency when it’s up and running. It's possible this is a way to get folks in the Senate a little more comfortable with her if she ends up being the person to actually run the agency.

*** GOP tries for unity: In the past day and a half, Republicans showed signs of trying to mend fences after a tumultuous 48 hours of finger-pointing and name-calling. The NRSC, which on Election Night put out just a 17-word statement acknowledging O'Donnell's victory, endorsed her yesterday (but with an asterisk). (Mike Castle still has not.) In what's likely a sign of the times for Republicans running for president, Mitt Romney endorsed her. (Will he stump for her?) And this morning on TODAY, and in an interview to air on NIGHTLY NEWS, Jim DeMint struck a more conciliatory tone. Despite having said yesterday, per Politico, “Republicans are not prepared to take over the Senate,” he moderated that to NBC, saying he meant that Republicans weren’t ready "now,” but that he thinks they will be ready by Election Day. And he praised GOP leadership, including Mitch McConnell and NRSC Chair John Cornyn. He dismissed criticism from moderate Republicans that he’s more interested in ideological purity than winning. He pointed to candidates faring well in Florida and Pennsylvania, for example. "You're not going to find purity in politics,” he said. “It's not about ideological purity as it is about common sense." He did, however, take a shot at the GOP aide quoted on Election Night as saying he had gone too far and lost all "credibility,” calling the person an "anonymous coward. No one said that to my face."

*** The Dem firewall: This evening, President Obama heads to Stamford, CT, where he will deliver remarks for Senate nominee Richard Blumenthal (D) at 6:15 pm ET. Connecticut is one of three states -- California and Washington State are the others -- that make up the Dem firewall to ensure their hold of the Senate in November. What these states have in common: They’re blue states where the president can make a difference in November (i.e., his job rating is above 50%). But the fact that they’re the firewall tells you all you need to know about the current direction of the political winds right now. Connecticut is a real thorn for Democrats because, on the one hand, they believe GOP nominee WWE executive Linda McMahon is a very flawed candidate. On the other hand, Blumenthal clearly is struggling to connect to voters, and the fact he's spent his career in elective office makes him very vulnerable to this "throw them all out" mentality that clearly is striking a chord with a large segment of the electorate all over the country.

*** Sounding the alarm in Ohio: Over the last couple of months, we’ve made the point that Democrats could have a better-than-expected midterm night -- especially as it relates to 2012 -- if they win the gubernatorial races in Colorado, Florida, and Ohio in this particular political climate. Ohio, however, is looking grim for the Dems right now. A new Quinnipiac poll shows John Kasich (R) leading incumbent Gov. Ted Strickland (D) by a whopping 17 points among likely voters, 54%-37%. That margin isn’t too far off from a new CNN/Time poll, which shows Kasich up by 11 points. Democrats following the race say internal polling has Kasich in the lead, but only by a few points. Still, Democrats have all but conceded the Senate race (notice the lack of money pouring into the state on behalf of Fisher). There are all sorts of rumors that key labor groups might not add EXTRA staff to the state and instead focus on, say, Wisconsin. Ohio has been a bright spot for Democrats in 2006 and 2008 (when the national winds were blowing their way), but now it is showing it's still one of the country's top five swing states as it's swinging back to the Republicans as the national winds do the same.

*** Big bucks, big bucks, no whammies: The Los Angeles Times reports that Meg Whitman (R) wrote her gubernatorial campaign a $15 million check, bringing the amount of money she’s personally invested in the contest to $119 million -- which breaks Michael Bloomberg’s record of $109 million during his ’09 mayoral re-election bid.

*** The ‘Exit Interviews’: In his last big story about the U.S. Senators who are retiring this year, NBC Senate producer Ken Strickland writes about the personal relationships (some of them unlikely ones) that are crucial to getting things done in the chamber. And here are some snippets of posts that will run later on First Read today. Chris Dodd on the difference between how Democrats and Republicans award their chairmanships: "Republicans do a better job with this than the Democrats," he said. "It's good for the institution." And Sam Brownback (R) on why there should be term limits: "You can find 100 competent people to do these jobs year in, year out," he added. "And you ought to have a change of blood and a change of ideas."

*** 75 House races to watch: OH-16: The Democratic nominee is first-term incumbent John Boccieri, and the GOP nominee is businessman Jim Renacci. McCain won 50% in this district in 2008, while Bush got 54% in 2004. As of June 30, Boccieri had more than $1 million in the bank versus $660,000 for Renacci. Boccieri voted for the stimulus, cap-and-trade, and health care. Cook rates it Lean Democrat, while Rothenberg has it Toss Up.

Countdown to HI primaries: 2 days
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 47 days

Click here to sign up for First Read emails.
Text FIRST to 622639, to sign up for First Read alerts to your mobile phone.
Check us out on Facebook and also on Twitter.