Five stories to watch on this Primary Day… 1) The insiders vs. the outsiders in FL… 2) Which McCain will we see after his expected primary win?... 3) What happens to Ben Quayle (or Pamela Gorman) in AZ?... 4) What political force is more important in Alaskan politics -- Palin-ism or Stevens-ism?... 5) And don’t forget about the contests in Vermont and Oklahoma… Final polls close in VT at 7:00 pm ET, in FL and OK at 8:00 pm ET, in AZ at 10:00 pm ET, and in AK at 1:00 am ET… Also on tap today: Boehner’s big economic speech… And previewing NJ-3.

From NBC's Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** Five primary day stories to watch: With the exception of the contests on Sept. 14, today is the last great Primary Day of this midterm cycle. And it has plenty of consequence -- with primaries impacting the toss-up gubernatorial and Senate general elections in America's most competitive battleground (Florida), with the GOP's 2008 standard-bearer receiving a highly scrutinized challenge, and with Palin-ism facing off against Stevens-ism in Alaska. Here are the five stories we’re watching.

*** The insiders vs. the outsiders: First, in Florida today, we’ll find out what's worse -- political insiders running in this anti-Washington, anti-establishment political environment, or wealthy billionaire outsiders with flawed resumes. In the GOP gubernatorial primary, state Attorney General Bill McCollum (who was a former member of Congress and ran for the Senate in ’04) faces off against former hospital executive Rick Scott (whose hospital chain was fined for fraud committed during his tenure there). The winner will take on Democrat Alex Sink in the fall, and the question is whether the divisive and expensive McCollum-Scott primary will hurt the GOP’s chances in this race. In the Democratic Senate primary, Congressman Kendrick Meek takes on billionaire Jeff Greene (who made his money betting against subprime loans, who had Mike Tyson serve as the best man at his wedding, and whose yacht has received plenty of negative attention). The winner will compete in a three-way contest along with Marco Rubio (R) and Charlie Crist (I). The question: If Meek wins as expected, will that rob Crist of the Dem votes (and endorsements) he needs? Polls in Florida close at 8:00 pm ET.

*** Which McCain will we see after today? Second, John McCain is expected to cruise to victory in his Senate GOP primary in Arizona against ex-Congressman J.D. Hayworth. But "cruise" is a relative term; don’t expect McCain’s percentage to exceed the 50s. The reason? There’s a third-party candidate in the race, businessman Jim Deakin, who might get double-digit support. So it wouldn’t be surprising if McCain got 55%, Hayworth got 35%, and Deakin got about 10% -- which is why McCain’s campaign was as aggressive as it was (spending some $20 million, hammering Hayworth on the airwaves, moving to the right on immigration). There was always going to be a sizable segment of the GOP electorate in Arizona opposed to McCain; it just turns out that an infomercial huckster wasn’t going to beat him. Our question: Which McCain will we see return to Washington after today -- the Obama-criticizing conservative or the deal-cutting maverick? Polls close in Arizona at 10:00 pm ET.

*** What happens to Ben Quayle? Third, there’s the competitive and crowded congressional GOP primary in Arizona to replace retiring Rep. John Shadegg (R). One of the candidates in the field -- Ben Quayle, son of the ex-VP -- received a considerable amount of attention (and criticism) over his tough anti-Obama TV ad. Also running in this primary is Pamela Gorman, whose TV ad showing her firing a variety of automatic weapons landed her on our list of top ads this cycle. In a more Democratic-friendly year, this district would actually be FULLY in play in the fall. Democrats might make the case they could make this competitive if either Quayle or Gorman end up with the nomination. By the way, remember six months ago -- pre-Arizona immigration law -- when Democrats thought one of their five best pickup opportunities for governor was in Arizona? That’s not the case anymore.

*** Palin-ism vs. Stevens-ism: Fourth, an irony of the Tea Party movement is that one of its key cheerleaders, Sarah Palin, hails from Alaska, which has arguably benefited more from federal spending than any other state in the nation. And that’s why Tea Party- and Palin-backed Joe Miller hasn’t presented much of a challenge to incumbent GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski. As it turns out, bringing home the bacon -- as the late Ted Stevens (R) practiced while in the Senate, and as Murkowski practices now -- trumps the Tea Party’s crusade against pork and spending. Bottom line: Alaskans like their “Bridges to Nowhere.” Final polls in the state close at 1:00 am ET.

*** And don’t forget about Vermont and Oklahoma: Finally, while the primaries in Florida, Arizona, and Alaska have received most of the attention, there are also contests today in Vermont and Oklahoma. In Vermont, where polls close at 7:00 pm ET, a handful of Democrats are competing in a gubernatorial primary, and the winner will face the wonderfully named Brian Dubie (R) in the general election to replace retiring Gov. Jim Douglas (R). And in Oklahoma, where polls close at 8:00 pm ET, there are a couple of congressional run-offs to finalize the field for November.

*** Boehner’s big speech: The other big political event today is House Minority Leader John Boehner’s economic speech, which he was scheduled to deliver at 8:00 am ET at the City Club of Cleveland. Per an advanced copy of the speech, Boehner calls for extending the Bush tax cuts, cutting spending, and eliminating uncertainty for businesses. But a quick read of the speech reveals that it contains more rhetoric than actual policy proposals; it doesn’t really list specifics about how he plans to cut spending and the debt, especially if you extend the Bush tax cuts. He talks about running the House differently, but he doesn't say how exactly. The one bit of news that the wires is running with is Boehner's call for the resignation of Obama's economic team. There’s also one intriguing policy proposal he mentions that a "Speaker Boehner" could find common ground with an Obama White House -- tax-code reform. “We need to take a long and hard look at the undergrowth of deductions, credits, and special carve-outs that our tax code has become,” he is expected to say. Our question: Why is Boehner giving this speech now in late August? Is he testing out what could work?

*** The Dems fire back: While it might be late August, Democrats aren’t holding back their fire at Boehner’s speech. Yesterday, Rep. Debbie Wasserman-Schultz participated in a DNC-sponsored conference call, saying that Boehner would be proposing a return to George W. Bush’s policies. The DNC also has released a Web video whacking the House minority leader. And the White House has blog post pre-butting the speech. “Today, Ohioans will hear an argument for a return to the economic policies that turned a surplus into record deficits and helped create the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression.”

*** 75 House races to watch: NJ-3: The Democratic nominee is first-term incumbent John Adler. The GOP nominee is former NFL player Jon Runyan. Obama won 52% of the vote in this district in ’08, while Bush got 51% in ’04. As of June 30, Adler had $1.9 million in the bank, and Runyan had $470,000. Adler voted for the stimulus and cap-and-trade, but against health care. Both Cook and Rothenberg rate the contest as Lean Democrat.

Countdown to Election Day 2010: 70 days

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"A federal judge in Washington yesterday temporarily blocked the Obama administration’s efforts to expand stem cell research, ruling in a case brought by a former MIT scientist and others who oppose embryonic stem cell research." The judge in the case "said in his 15-page decision that regulations designed to expand federal funding for embryonic stem cell research violated a law prohibiting destruction of embryos for research purposes."

The New York Times: “The ruling came as a shock to scientists at the National Institutes of Health and at universities across the country, which had viewed the Obama administration’s new policy and the grants provided under it as settled law. Scientists scrambled Monday evening to assess the ruling’s immediate impact on their work.”

Per the AP, "The USDA employee who was pushed out of her job during a racial firestorm last month is set to meet [today] with Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack to discuss coming back to work at the agency.”

"A senior US commander said yesterday that he could not predict when Afghanistan might take control of its own security and warned that NATO needs at least another year to recruit and train enough soldiers and police officers."

"Embattled Rep. Charles Rangel shot back Monday night at President Obama's unsolicited advice for him to 'end his career with dignity,'" the New York Daily News writes. "'Frankly, he has not been around long enough to determine what my dignity is,' Rangel said of Obama during a fiery candidates' forum at the Convent Avenue Baptist Church in Harlem.”

"Mitt Romney, having met last weekend in New Hampshire with the staff of his 2008 presidential campaign, is preparing to embark on an aggressive schedule that will take him to more than 25 states in what is seen as a prelude to another possible White House bid," the Boston Globe's Issenberg reports. “Since losing the 2008 Republican nomination, the former Massachusetts governor has sought to reposition himself within the party, de-emphasizing social issues and focusing instead on foreign policy and economic affairs. But the most dramatic re invention may be a stylistic one: Romney is seeking to come across as more easygoing and accessible than the formally dressed, perfectly coiffed, carefully rehearsed candidate of the last campaign."

More: "New Hampshire is the place Romney’s advisers and allies say they see Mitt at rest: a wearer of jeans and driver of a black 2003 Chevy Silverado pickup truck. Some of them are hoping that Romney’s laid-back summer lifestyle will survive Labor Day and endure onto the campaign trail, helping to erase the impression many voters have had of a wealthy candidate almost animatronically focused on winning."

What can Brown do for you? "Sen. Scott Brown is scheduled to spend much of the final three weeks of the August recess on the road raising money for Republican Congressional candidates in a four-state campaign swing that will take him from his home state of Massachusetts to Illinois, California and beyond," Roll Call reports.

From NBC's Ali Weinberg
He hasn't spoken yet, but Democrats are already criticizing House Republican leader John Boehner (R-OH) as offering "more of the same" in a speech on the economy to be delivered tomorrow.

In anticipation of Rep. Boehner's scheduled address at the City Club of Cleveland, DNC Vice Chairwoman Rep. Debbie Wasserman-Schultz said she expected Boehner to reiterate his desire, and, by association, that of all Congressional Republicans, to return to President George W. Bush's fiscal policies, including his failed effort to privatize Social Security and an extension of his tax cuts for the top 1% of earners that are set to expire at the end of 2010.

"John Boehner has been consistent in that he has not abandoned the previous agenda that got us into the ditch in the frstplace," Wasserman-Schultz told reporters on a conference call.

Ohio Democratic Party Chairman Chris Redfern, who joined Wasserman-Schultz on the call, also stuck to the Democratic campaign script, accusing Republicans of wanting to regain legislative control after being voted out in 2006 and then mounting near-unanimous opposition to all of President Obama's major initiatives.

Redfern said Republicans are "stopping President Obama and Democrats from cleaning up the mess they created, and going back to the same policies that got us into this mess to begin with."

When asked specifically about whether Democrats will allow all Bush tax cuts to expire, Wasserman-Schultz said no decisions have been made on the substance or timing of a tax cut announcement.

"Certainly the majority of Democrats are supportive of making sure that if we're reenacting any of those tax cuts it would be for the middle class and working families," she said, adding that there were a variety of opinions on whether to address the tax cuts right away, but that "in terms of timing it's not decided upon."

Responding to the Democrats' pre-buttal of Boehner's speech, Kevin Smith, a spokesman for the Minority Leader, accused Democrats of ignoring proposals put forth in a Republican economic plan available online.

On tomorrow's speech, he wrote that Boehner "will outline common-sense solutions to end the ongoing economic uncertainty, boost small business job creation, and end the spending spree in Washington. Instead of spreading distortions, Democrats should be working with Republicans to support policies that will support true job creation and end the spending spree in Washington.”

A heated "Meet The Press" exchange between Freedomworks founder Dick Armey and Michigan governor Jennifer Granholm over Rep. Paul Ryan's entitlement reform proposals -- considered effective but drastic by some policy experts and observers -- was still being discussed today on the blogs.

According to a Washington Post summary of the plan earlier this month, it would would keep Medicare intact for people over the age of 55, but give those under 55 vouchers to pay for private insurance. These vouchers would grow more slowly than projected medical costs. The Medicare eligibility age would also gradually rise from 65 to 69.

On Social Security, Ryan proposes for benefits to be reduced for workers currently 54 or younger, and have the option of allocating some Social Security tax money into investment accounts.

Only 13 lawmakers have signed on to co-sponsor the bill, which Armey said Sunday represented a lack of "courage" among congressional Republicans.

Liberal blogger Steve Benen at Washington Monthly's Political Animal disagreed with Armey on the substance of the bill, calling it "a right-wing fantasy," but cautioned against being "too quick to dismiss the larger political point of Dick Armey's complaints."

Benen suggested that the reform Ryan advocates put voice, in the form of unpalatable changes, to the kind of tough cuts Republicans would support if they weren't so politically unattractive.

"Ryan himself has conceded that his GOP colleagues are too afraid to endorse a plan they agree with: "They're talking to their pollsters and their pollsters are saying, 'Stay away from this.'To this extent, Armey raises a reasonable argument: if Paul is putting on paper what Republicans really believe, why don't they have the courage of their convictions? Why not have the guts to endorse a budget plan that reflects their actual thinking?" Benen wrote.

"Armey, who started FreedomWorks and is an instigator of the teabaggers, issued a warning to House and Senate GOPers: Get on board with the teabagger's agenda, which is enshrined in legislation sponsored by Rep. Paul 'Flim-Flam man' Ryan," wrote AMERICAblog's Joe Sudbay.

"Armey talks like he's got the power to defeat Republicans who don't get on board," Sudbay wrote, adding, "I love a good intra-GOP battle."

On the conservative side, HotAir's Allahpundit noted first that it was Granholm, not Armey, who brought up Ryan's plan: Gregory’s question has to do with tea-party candidates being out of the mainstream and she leaps from that to an attack on the roadmap. Partly that’s because Dems are in panic mode about losing seniors’ votes and figure that distorting Ryan’s plan is the best way to spook them into voting blue this fall. But as I’ve said before, part of it is also a function of Ryan being a serious policy thinker who’s not given to the sort of rhetorical excess that lends itself to the left’s 'all conservatives are kooks' message."

On the issue of the proposal's political salience, Allahpundit's observation almost mimicked those from the left: "I figure most tea partiers would love it as a show of fiscal conservative principle; centrists, who are loath to tinker with Social Security and Medicare, would likely freak out; and a third faction in the middle would welcome the move from a policy standpoint but would panic at the thought of Republicans handing the Dems a major opportunity to change the subject when they’re on the ropes. But then, that’s the problem with entitlements writ large, isn’t it? Everyone agrees that we need to talk about them — just not right now, when it’s politically inconvenient. Someday."

Watch the discussion here:

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Former Nebraska Sen. Chuck Hagel, a Republican, endorsed Rep. Joe Sestak (D) in his bid for Senate. Hagel's wife endorsed Barack Obama for president.

AP:

Hagel told The Associated Press on Monday that Sestak has demonstrated during his two terms in Congress that he puts what's best for the country before the interests of his party. He said Sestak's courage and integrity as a legislator are qualities the nation needs more of. He refused to comment on the candidacy of Sestak's opponent, Republican Pat Toomey, a former congressman. ... Hagel plans to announce his endorsement Tuesday at news conferences with Sestak in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia.

Will the insiders strike back in tomorrow’s primaries in AK, AZ and FL?... The Four M’s -- McCain, Murkowski, McCollum, and Meek -- are favored… Biden’s busy day… Is Lee Fisher in trouble in OH?... Mitch McConnell takes Obama “at his word” that he’s a Christian… McConnell also can’t answer how Republicans plan to pay for extending the Bush tax cuts… Profiling ND-AL… And Harry Reid rakes in the celebrity cash.

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** The insiders strike back? This midterm cycle -- so far -- hasn’t been kind to some career or establishment-backed politicians. We saw this play out in Utah (with Bob Bennett’s convention defeat), in Kentucky (where Rand Paul beat Trey Grayson), in Pennsylvania (where two-term Congressman Joe Sestak bested five-term Sen. Arlen Specter), in Nevada (with Sharron Angle’s victory), and even in Michigan (where outsider Rick Snyder defeated a congressman and state attorney general for the GOP gubernatorial nomination). But according to the polls and the political momentum in tomorrow’s primaries in Alaska, Arizona, and Florida, the insiders appear be staging a comeback. “The contests offer more evidence that establishment candidates can prosper in this year of the outsider,” the Washington Post’s Dan Balz writes. “They are also a reminder that personal wealth cannot overcome personal flaws, particularly among political novices.” There certainly might be a stick-with-the-devil-we-know story tomorrow.

*** The Four M’s -- McCain, Murkowski, McCollum, and Meek -- are favored: In Arizona, for starters, Sen. John McCain would seem like a sure political casualty in this anti-Washington, anti-establishment environment; after all, few politicians have been in office longer and more are associated more with Washington than he is. But McCain is expected to cruise to victory in his GOP Senate primary against J.D. Hayworth. Ditto Sen. Lisa Murkowski in her GOP primary against Palin-backed Joe Miller. And in Florida, a new Mason-Dixon poll shows state Attorney General Bill McCollum leading wealthy outsider Rick Scott by nine points (45%-36%) in the GOP gubernatorial primary, and Congressman Kendrick Meek ahead of wealthy outsider Jeff Greene by 12 points (42%-30%). A new Quinnipiac poll also has McCollum and Meek out in front. If they win tomorrow, the happiest guy in Florida may very well be Marco Rubio, because McCollum would be the GOP’s stronger candidate at the top of the ticket (and ensure Haley Barbour's RGA would play in the state), and Meek could take Dem votes (and more importantly Dem endorsements) away from Charlie Crist.

*** Biden’s busy day: While President Obama vacations in Martha’s Vineyard, Vice President Biden has a very busy day. At 11:00 am ET, he addresses the Veterans of Foreign Wars convention in Indianapolis, where he will discuss the end of combat operations in Iraq. Then, at 3:00 pm ET, he speaks in Toledo, OH about the success of the U.S. auto industry, and he’ll be joined by Gov. Ted Strickland, Sen. Sherrod Brown, and Rep. Marcy Kaptur. And at 4:30 pm ET, he attends a campaign event for Strickland, who’s running for re-election.

*** Is Fisher in trouble? But guess who WON’T be with the VP in Ohio today, according to Biden’s schedule? Ohio Democratic Senate nominee Lee Fisher. And we can tell you that there is already a real debate in Democratic circles whether Fisher’s campaign is a lost cause, despite the fact that polls showed him actually leading Rob Portman (R) just a couple of months ago. Check out this tough piece from the Dayton Daily News: “[A]s Fisher campaigns across the state he is battling not just Portman but the perception that the campaign is getting away from him with the Sept. 28 start of early voting little more than a month away.” We recently wrote that Missouri could be slipping away from Democrats. But the DSCC tried to squash that talk with the announcement of a serious ad buy for the fall. But we haven't seen that yet for Fisher in Ohio. Our guess is that Democrats wish Carnahan's campaign were running with Ohio's electorate, but that's not the case. *** UPDATE *** Fisher's campaign tells First Read that Fisher WILL BE in attendance at the event in Toledo, OH; his name wasn't listed on Biden's schedule.

*** “As far as I know” vs. “I take him at his word”: In March of 2008, the usually precise Hillary Clinton received a considerable amount of criticism when she told Steve Kroft of “60 Minutes” that Barack Obama wasn’t a Muslim -- “as far as I know.” (As far as she knows? It was a terrible choice of words.) Well, on “Meet the Press” yesterday, GOP Senate leader Mitch McConnell gave what appeared to be a similar answer when NBC’s David Gregory asked why 34% of Republicans, according to that recent Pew poll, believe the president is a Muslim. McConnell’s response: “The president says he's a Christian; I take him at his word. I don't think that's in dispute.” (I take him at his word?) McConnell’s spokesman, Don Stewart, emailed First Read: "Some are trying to make this into something it's not… He was clear as a bell, particularly when people listened to the whole thing.”

*** It’s time for a GOP elected official to speak up and cut off the nonsense: The full context of McConnell's remarks certainly back up Stewart's spin, but it's a reminder it may take elected officials to help cut off this nonsense that, somehow, the president is not who he says he is. It's nothing new in American politics for fringe elements to start lies. But what's different these days is that the fringe can find a fairly loud megaphone to sell their snake oil.

*** “What are you talking about, ‘Paid for’”? What might have been more interesting about McConnell's appearance was that it highlighted the struggle that he and other Republicans have had on reconciling support for extending the Bush tax cuts with their push for deficit reduction. McConnell: “Well, what, what, what, what are you talking about, ‘Paid for’? This is existing tax policy. It's been in place for 10 years. What they're talking about is raising taxes, impacting 50% of small business income in the middle of what most Americans think is a recession. That is not a responsible thing to do in my judgment.” He later said, “You're talking about current tax policy. Why did all it of a sudden become something that may [be] ‘paid for.’” However, as Paul Krugman writes in today’s Times, the current/existing policy that McConnell and others voted for during the Bush years was written to expire in 2010. So isn’t that the existing policy?

*** 75 House races to watch: ND-AL: The Democratic nominee is nine-term incumbent Rep. Earl Pomeroy. The GOP nominee is former state rep and majority leader Rick Berg. McCain won 53% in this district in ’08, and Bush won 63% in ’04. As of June 30, Pomeroy had $1.7 million in the bank, versus Berg’s $750,000. Pomeroy voted for the stimulus and health care, but against cap-and-trade. Both Cook and Rothenberg rate the race as Toss Up.

*** More midterm news: In Alaska, in her debate last week, Lisa Murkowski “accused Joe Miller of lying about her position on health care. Miller, for his part, said she supports abortion rights and other things that aren’t in the Constitution,” the Anchorage Daily News notes… And in Nevada, The Hill writes, Harry Reid is raking in the celebrity cash.

Countdown to AK, AZ, FL, and VT primaries: 1 day
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 71 days

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In the Sunday Washington Post, Dan Balz looked at the similarities and differences between Reagan’s first two years as president and Obama’s. “Both men succeeded unpopular presidents of the opposite party. Both offered big and bold plans… Both presidents were forced by events that preceded their elections to contend with economies in serious trouble. Both saw the unemployment rate rise sharply during their first two years in office -- under Reagan, the rate hit 10.8 percent by November 1982 -- and both saw their approval ratings decline as the numbers of jobless grew… Republicans suffered significant losses in the House in Reagan's first midterm election, giving Democrats an even larger majority. Most Democrats are braced for a similarly bad night this November.”

But: “The economy rebounded significantly during Reagan's third and fourth years in office. The unemployment rate declined, although not spectacularly. It was still at 8.3 percent in December 1983 and at 7.5 percent in August 1984 as the general election campaign was entering its final months… the contrary, the outlook for 2011 and 2012 is far more modest. The Congressional Budget Office said in its latest forecast last week that the pace of growth in the coming years "is likely to be slower than usual" compared with past recessions.”

The Sunday New York Times reported that the president "plans to make a high-profile speech on the drawdown next week, and aides are discussing whether to have him meet with returning troops. Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. will address the Veterans of Foreign Wars in Indianapolis on Monday."

The Washington Post notes how Republicans are criticizing Obama’s 10-day vacation in Martha’s Vineyard. “One potential complication: Obama has spent far less time on vacation than his Republican predecessor, George W. Bush, had at this point in his presidency. Veteran CBS News White House correspondent Mark Knoller, a fastidious keeper of presidential statistics, has kept count. By his tally, Obama has embarked on nine ‘vacations’ since taking office, bringing his total days off to 48. Some of those trips lasted a day and some, like his Christmas holiday in Hawaii, more than a week. By comparison, Bush had visited his ranch in Crawford, Tex., 14 times at this point in his administration and spent 115 days there. And yes, Democrats let him have it, too, complaining that he was a chronic vacationer.”

The Boston Globe: “Thus far, the vacationing president and his family have stayed mostly out of view, which political specialists say reflects a justifiable demand for privacy combined with White House concern about negative political fallout if the president is shown enjoying a privileged retreat during hard economic times.”

The New York Daily News: “‘The president says he's a Christian. I take him at his word,’ Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said Sunday on NBC's ‘Meet the Press.’ ‘I think the faith that most Americans are questioning is the President's faith in the government to generate jobs.’ But McConnell's carefully worded remark raised eyebrows among those who felt the statement was intentionally cagey.”

“Republican Rep. Paul Broun of Georgia won his seat in Congress campaigning as a strict defender of the Constitution. He carries a copy in his pocket and is particularly fond of invoking the Second Amendment right to bear arms. But it turns out there are parts of the document he doesn't care for -- lots of them,” the AP writes. “He wants to get rid of the language about birthright citizenship, federal income taxes and direct election of senators, among others. He would add plenty of stuff, including explicitly authorizing castration as punishment for child rapists.

This hot-and-cold take on the Constitution is surprisingly common within the GOP, particularly among those like Broun who portray themselves as strict Constitutionalists and who frequently accuse Democrats of twisting the document to serve political aims. Republicans have proposed at least 42 Constitutional amendments in the current Congress, including one that has gained favor recently to eliminate the automatic grant of citizenship to anyone born in the United States.”

ALASKA: The Anchorage Daily News recounts Thursday’s debate between Sen. Lisa Murkowski and her Republican challenger Joe Miller: “Sen. Lisa Murkowski on Thursday night accused Joe Miller of lying about her position on health care. Miller, for his part, said she supports abortion rights and other things that aren’t in the Constitution.”

ARIZONA: The AP notes that McCain has turned the “vulnerable label into front-runner.” He has done it, in part, by spending some $20 million on the primary and by recognizing the potential threat early.

The Hill with a similar headline: “McCain poised to crush Hayworth on Tuesday.”

Bloomberg News examines the implications of Sen. John McCain’s reversal on the issue of immigration: “a McCain victory would come with a price beyond the more than $19 million he has spent for the primary: support from onetime Hispanic allies; the ‘maverick’ persona he has promoted in his four terms in the Senate; and his ability to compromise with Democrats in Washington.”

FLORIDA: The Miami Herald writes of tomorrow’s gubernatorial primary: “Tuesday's election will culminate a bitter four-month contest between self-financed newcomer Scott and longtime politician McCollum that saw record spending for a state primary campaign - mostly by Scott, who has written checks for more than $30 million to blanket the state's TV airwaves with his commercials.”

A Mason-Dixon poll shows Bill McCollum with a 9-point lead over Scott and Rep. Kendrick Meek up 12 points against Jeff Greene, the Orlando Sentinel writes.

The Sarasota Herald-Tribune asks whether the GOP will be able to overcome the nasty McCollum-Scott gubernatorial primary. “Many primary elections have rough campaigns that turn negative, but what makes this governor's race different is the more than $50 million spent on television advertising aimed at tearing down the character of the two Republicans.”

From Msnbc.com's Tom Curry
New Jersey Governor Chris Christie has enjoyed a week of positive buzz.

The governor began the week by standing out from the crowd of pundits and politicians, striking a rhetorical balance on the proposed mosque near the World Trade Center site.

“I understand acutely the pain and sorrow and upset of the family members who lost loved ones that day at the hands of radical Muslim extremists. And their sensitivities and concerns have to be taken into account,” he said. But he added, “We cannot paint all of Islam with that brush. ...We have to bring people together.”

He condemned the mosque “being used as a political football by both parties.” And he got in a slap at President Obama: “what disturbs me about the president's remarks is that he is now using it as a political football as well.”

A new Quinnipiac survey released Thursday found that 51 percent of his state’s voters think Christie is doing a good job as governor; among independents, 61 percent approve of his performance.

New Jersey voters surveyed in the poll were split on President Obama’s job approval: 47 percent to 47 percent – this is in a state the president carried with 57 percent in 2008.

Another New Jersey poll, the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll conducted Aug. 6-8, found only 39 percent saying Christie was doing an excellent or good job as governor.

Despite that, the poll showed the governor has enviable traits for a politician: 74 percent agree he is independent and 70 percent view him as a strong leader.

“I think the party is where Chris Christie is,” said NBC’s Andrea Mitchell Wednesday on MSNBC’s Morning Joe. “There are people like Chris Christie who are the future leaders of the Republican Party.” To which Joe Scarborough responded that Christie “is going to be on everybody’s short ticket (for vice president) in 2012” – a clip that Christie’s staff touts on the governor’s Youtube site.

Finally the Republican Governors Association (RGA) announced it would debut early next month a 20-minute film tribute to Christie and his victory over Democrat Jon Corzine in last year’s election.

Target audience: GOP activists on their laptops. “A large number of grassroots conservatives are going to want to watch it,” said RGA spokesman Mike Schrimpf.

“There is not one iota of political benefit to these films,” scoffed Nathan Daschle, executive director of the Democratic Governors Association. “They are a complete waste of time and money, but as long as the RGA wants to keep throwing their money at them, I'm all for it.”

He added, “When 2010 voters head to the polls this year, Chris Christie will be the last thing on their minds.”

Christie’s message is clear, old-school Republican: “We said we wanted to have less spending, smaller government, lower taxes, and common-sense regulation that was going to grow private-sector jobs.” His budget will cut planned state spending by $11 billion.

“Republicans across the country need to get back to our brand,” Christie says.

His own brand seems to be doing just fine for the moment, but where do things go from here for Christie?

When I asked Daschle about Christie last month, he told me: “Republicans are in a desperate search for a leader. They have about ten people who are competing for the claim of leader of the party. Unfortunately for them, nine of the ten are claiming leadership for reasons that have nothing to do with what they do in office.”

Christie is different from those would-be leaders, Daschle implied. “Chris Christie comes along and, frankly, to his credit does exactly what he said he was going to do, does exactly what Jon Corzine said he was going to do. And he’s made lot of noise in New Jersey and a lot of conservatives take this as a rallying cry for an agenda that they want put forth.”

But he added “The reality is that Christie is at a 35 percent approval rating and I would not be surprised at all if Chris Christie were a one-term governor.”

Since that interview, Christie’s approval rating has improved, as measured by Quinnipiac.

Christie may have a down-ballot benefit for the GOP this year in the Garden State.

“Our polling shows voters who like him are much more likely to vote Republican, even in Democratic districts,” said political scientist David Redlawsk, the director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers. “Republican candidates are happy to be seen with him. Jon Runyan (running against Democrat Rep. John Adler in New Jersey’s Third congressional district) is featuring him at a fundraiser next week, and Rep. Scott Garrett (the Republican who represents the state’s Fifth district) has been happy to be seen with him at a county fair. In general they seem to embrace him”

More unpalatable state budget choices will be needed next year, Redlawsk said. “There is much more to come, most likely, since a massive structural deficit remains, including huge pension obligations that remain unfunded.”
So Christie’s New Jersey approval numbers “may get worse, but perhaps not since voters are sort of positive towards the guy himself and already expect the worst.”

Redlawsk added it’s “simply too early to know” whether Christie is viable as a national candidate. “The next year is likely to be more difficult, and how he handles it will determine his long-term future.”

For now, Christie is important nationally, said GOP pollster Whit Ayres, primarily because he is “showing that Republicans are not goners in the Northeast if they govern from a common sense, conservative perspective.”

There are five more primaries this Tuesday, with big races in Florida and Arizona to be settled.

Plus, the "worst president in history," get your gun, and who's on a cow?

VIDEO: Watch a preview here in The Week Ahead.

The debate over the citizenship rights of children of illegal immigrants doesn’t seem to be going away.

In the latest development, former Attorney General Alberto Gonzales – who is of Mexican descent – spoke out against GOP-backed proposals to amend the Fourteenth Amendment to prevent automatic citizenship for all children born in the United States regardless of their parents’ immigration status.

“Because most undocumented workers come here to provide for themselves and their families, a constitutional amendment will not solve our immigration crisis,” he wrote in a Washington Post op-ed. “People will certainly continue to cross our borders to find a better life, irrespective of the possibilities of U.S. citizenship.”

Some have disagreed with Gonzales’s assessment. Cable news channels and the blogoshere have been abuzz in recent weeks with chatter and debate about a phenomenon called “drop and leave.”

The expression is blunt political short-hand for what some claim is a common occurrence: immigrants deliberately traveling to the United States for the purpose giving birth on U.S. soil to a child, and then returning home.

The Fourteenth Amendment to the U.S. Constitution grants "birthright citizenship" to any individual born in the United States. Critics of "drop and leave," including some members of Congress, claim illegal immigrants are abusing that provided right, and have been calling a new amendment of the Constitution to eliminate that very provision.

“To have a child in America, they cross the border, they go to the emergency room, have a child, and that child's automatically an American citizen,” Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., said on FOX News last month. “That shouldn't be the case. That attracts people here for all the wrong reasons.”

Critics call such children "anchor babies," because as citizens they can “anchor” their families in the U.S.

Lawmakers and pundits who favor possible changes to the Fourteenth Amendment, including Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., have pointed to recent news reports about “birth tourism” -- describing businesses that provide travel packages to expectant mothers wanting to deliver their children in the United States.

A recent Washington Post report described how one Taiwanese couple has helped over 500 Chinese mothers give birth to citizen babies in America over the five years they have been in business. A June 2010 Times of London story detailed a package offered by one hotel in New York City (the Marmara Manhattan hotel, part of a Turkish hospitality chain). The paper reported that the package offered a two-month stay, including medical fees for mothers-to-be, for a total of about £28,000 ($43,440). A sales official for the hotel said that no such package exists at this time, but would not comment on whether or not recent press reports about the program were accurate. A Marmara public relations spokesperson declined to comment for this story.

Does "drop-and-leave" happen? Do non-residents of the United States come to American hospitals specifically to have babies who automatically become American citizens? And is it common?

Although it does happen -- there have been some documented cases -- there's no hard evidence that non-citizens are motivated to have children here simply because of the incentive of citizenship for a member of their family.

According to a birth report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, a total of 7,775 U.S. births in 2007 were to parents who did not reside in the United States. That’s less than two tenths of one percent of all births nationwide.

But that figure only includes births to parents who are temporary visitors to the U.S. It does not include the number of births to parents who are already living the United States illegally. It's difficult to count or calculate that number, although a 2009 study by the Pew Hispanic Center estimated there are about four million American-born children of illegal immigrants living in the country today.

Graham and other Republicans are correct in saying that estimates of the number of citizen children of illegal immigrants is on the rise. The estimated number of U.S. citizen children with at least one undocumented parent rose from 2.7 million in 2003 to 4 million in 2008, according to Pew.

But the claim that automatic citizenship “attracts” illegal parents to have children on U.S. soil lacks such definitive data.

Jeffrey Passel, a demographer who co-authored the Pew Hispanic Center study, says that there is not conclusive evidence that having American-born children is a major motivator for undocumented immigrants who make their way into the United States.

“If having a baby was the incentive, we’d see more females” migrating across the border to the United States, he said. (The flow of illegal immigrants from Mexico is more than 60 percent male.)

Some who support changing the Fourteenth Amendment argue that undocumented immigrants view having a U.S.-citizen “anchor baby” as a way to discourage federal authorities from deporting them if they are apprehended.

But Anna O. Law, a political science professor at DePaul University, says that courts are not sympathetic. She points out that the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals recently upheld a strict standard of evidence for those wishing to defer deportation. They must demonstrate “exceptional and unusual hardship.”

“Exceptional and unusual hardship’ does not include the fact of having a U.S. citizen child,” she said. “Absolutely not.”

Whether or not many illegal parents are having children on U.S. soil as a strategy to stay in the U.S., one statistic shows the U.S. continues to deport significant numbers of illegal parents who have had children here.

According to a 2009 Department of Homeland Security report, U.S. immigration officials deported more than 100,000 non-U.S. citizens between 1998 and 2007 despite their having at least one child with U.S. citizenship. About 80 percent of those parents had recorded criminal convictions; 20 percent were deported based on their immigration status alone.

NBC's Rich Gardella contributed to this report.

The Democratic National Committee is going up with an ad today called "Big Choices," touting what Democrats have done AND uses President Bush saying, "fool me once, you can't get fooled again." But it's only running on national cable and will run through next week. We'll see if they put more money behind it after this test run.

- Corporate donations after the Citizens United ruling are getting more attention. In addition to the million-dollar NewsCorp donation to the Republican Governors Association, AP reports that some institutional shareholders of Target and Best Buy are "urging the boards of both [companies] to increase their oversight of campaign contributions." Target and Best Buy have given a combined $250,000 to a fund to boost a Republican candidate for governor in Minnesota. There have been protests from gay rights groups and others, including a MoveOn.org ad that was reportedly rejected by MSNBC, prompting MoveOn to criticize General Electric. (GE is the parent company of NBC Universal.)

- Alberto Gonzales has an op-ed in the Washington Post coming out against changing or repealing the 14th Amendment and calling for comprehensive immigration reform:

I do not support such an amendment. Based on principles from my tenure as a judge, I think constitutional amendments should be reserved for extraordinary circumstances that we cannot address effectively through legislation or regulation. Because most undocumented workers come here to provide for themselves and their families, a constitutional amendment will not solve our immigration crisis. People will certainly continue to cross our borders to find a better life, irrespective of the possibilities of U.S. citizenship. As the nation's former chief law enforcement officer and a citizen who believes in the rule of law, I cannot condone anyone coming into this country illegally. However, as a father who wants the best for my own children, I understand why these parents risk coming to America -- especially when there is little fear of prosecution. If we want to stop this practice, we should pass and enforce comprehensive immigration legislation rather than amend our Constitution.

It highlights a continued division between Republicans, particularly between some Hispanic Republicans and some white Republicans, on how to handle the issue of immigration.

- The New York Times profiles Bill Clinton's role as a campaigner this fall, and labels him the "Defender in Chief." Michelle Obama, Vice President Joe Biden, and, of course, the president are expected to be the main Democratic surrogates this fall.

- The Times magazine also profiles Joe Sestak, the Democrat running for Senate in Pennsylvania, and goes along with him on a campaign event, calling him something between a "tireless" and "maniacal" campaigner. At one point, Sestak nearly runs over a toddler and the reporter had to get out of the way to avoid a collision with Sestak, so the congressman could shake hands. In DC, operatives who have worked for Sestak have said privately that he can be tough to work for. The Times story recounts a story in The Hill in which a Capitol Hill veteran says Sestak is “a guy to avoid unless you are desperate for a job.” It also notes a Navy Times story that says he created a “poor command climate,” something known within the Pentagon and was an issue during the Democratic primary campaign when Arlen Specter tried to use that against Sestak.

- Quote of the Day: So far it's is Rod Blagojevich on NBC's Today show. When asked if he had enough money to fund a new trial, he said: "I take solace in the Biblical story of David. I don't have a slingshot, but I have the truth on my side."

- And hasn't Blago suffered enough? He's so broke, that a storage facility where he apparently owes $100,000, auctioned off several of his belongings, including a life-size Elvis statue. It sold for $20,500.

- And finally with Roger Clemens' indictment yesterday for lying to Congress about using performance-enhancing drugs, Bostonians are claiming he's a Damn Yankee: The Boston Globe reports that several Fenway dwellers yesterday held the view that when they heard about the indictment they thought it was "awesome." The Globe: "It was hard to find anyone around Fenway Park yesterday who didn’t have a similar opinion."

Note: On Fridays during this month of August, we’re scaling back our morning note. But we’re still providing something to read as you head to the beach or take advantage (hopefully) of a long weekend.

From NBC's Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** First Read’s Top 10 governor takeovers: If it’s Friday, it’s time for another Top 10 list. Today, we look at what we consider the Top 10 states where a party will win/lose control of a governor’s mansion. The number in parentheses is our last ranking (from June).
1. Wyoming (1): Matt Mead won the crowded GOP primary on Tuesday, and he’s the overwhelming favorite to replace outgoing Gov. Dave Freudenthal (D).
2. Kansas (2): Hello, Gov. Sam Brownback (R).
3. Tennessee (3): It’s Bill Haslam (R) vs. Mike McWherter (D) to replace term-limited Gov. Phil Bredesen, and the moderate Haslam has the edge.
4. Iowa (7): When Gov. Chet Culver (D) is admitting to mistakes, as he did earlier this week, you know he’s in deep trouble. The GOP nominee is ex-Gov. Terry Branstad (R).
5. Michigan (6): Another GOP moderate, Rick “One Tough Nerd” Snyder (R), won the GOP nomination, and he’s leading in the polls by double digits against Virg Bernero (D).
6. Hawaii (5): Democrats have a crowded field for the Sept. 18 primary – led by ex-Rep. Neil Abercrombie -- but they’re the favorites here.
7. Oklahoma (4): One thing we know will happen: The Sooner State is going to elect its first female governor -- either Mary Fallin (R) or Jari Askins. Fallin is the favorite in this red state.
8. Pennsylvania (8): Attorney General Tom Corbett (R) is the clear front-runner to succeed term-limited Gov. Ed Rendell (D).
9. Connecticut (9): Democrats got their stronger candidate, ex-Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy (D), who faces off against former ambassador to Ireland Tom Foley (R).
10. Minnesota (10): Ex-Sen. Mark Dayton (D), who narrowly won this month’s Dem primary, probably has the edge against Tom Emmer (R), but the race to replace retiring Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) could be closer than people think.

*** First Read’s Gubernatorial ratings:
Toss Ups (11): CA, FL, GA, IL, MA, MN, NM, OH, WI, RI, VT
Lean Democrat (5): CT, HI, ME, MD, OR
Lean Republican (5): IA, MI, OK, PA, TX
Probable Democrat (1): CO
Probable Republican (6): AL, AZ, ID, SC, NV, TN
Solid Democrat (3): AR, NH, NY
Solid Republican (6): AK, KS, NE, SD, UT, WY

Is "Obama as a Muslim" the new "Birther" question for Republican candidates?

In an interview with Roll Call, GOP candidate Tom Ganley, running against vulnerable Democratic incumbent Betty Sutton in OH-13 (No. 62 in the First Read Field of 64), would not say whether he thinks the president is a Muslim.

He's not, as we keep reiterating. He's a Christian.

He told Roll Call:

“I don’t have a position on whether he’s a Muslim."

The wealthy car dealer "has already loaned his campaign $6.5 million and had $6.7 million in cash as of June 30. As of midsummer, Sutton had $930,000 in the bank," Roll Call writes.

*** UPDATE *** Ganley's campaign points First Read to a follow up posted by the Cleveland Plain-Dealer:

When asked whether he believes Obama is a Muslim, Ganley "said he would prefer not to answer that question, because he felt it was irrelevant to the interview at hand," said Ganley spokeswoman, Meghan Snyder. "For the record, he doesn't believe the president is Muslim."

"I do not believe President Obama's religion has any impact on the need for jobs in Ohio's 13th district," Ganley said in a press statement. "According to the White House, our president is a Christian and I have no reason to believe otherwise."

What party is Joe Donnelly again? The Indiana congressman is a Democrat, but he doesn't want his constituents to know that. He's running for re-election in the second congressional district, ranked 49th most likely takeover in our First Read Field of 64.

From watching his ads this cycle, one would think he was an independent. It's no accident. Donnelly calls himself "independent" twice in his latest ad. And he takes aim at House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's "energy tax" (and former President Bush for wanting to privatize Social Security.) Calling the controversial cap-and-trade bill an "energy tax" has been a talking point used almost exclusively by Republicans and their surrogates. Donnelly earlier went up with an ad derided the "crowd in Washington," which included President Obama, Pelosi, and Republican Minority Leader John Boehner.

Part of what an announcer says of Donnelly: "Joe Donnelly is Indiana's most independent Congressman. Joe opposed President Bush's attempts to privatize Social Security. And voted against Nancy Pelosi's energy tax on Hoosier families. ... Joe Donnelly is the independent voice who protects Hoosier families."

Hat tip: Hotline.

The Republicans Governors Association is going to debut a 20-minute movie, called "A New Jersey," about the election of Chris Christie in New Jersey at a D.C. movie theater. Seriously.

Here's a preview of the short film that features very serious piano music, a forlorn President Obama, and chants of "Yes, we can" for Christie:

Remember November Act I: 'A New Jersey' Opening Featurette from Republican Governors Association on Vimeo.

Remember the Dream. Remember November. from Republican Governors Association on Vimeo.

Here's the RGA's release:

RGA Announces Remember November: A New Jersey
The Republican Governors Association announced today that it will release a 20+ minute film highlighting the election of Governor Chris Christie and his first eight months in office. A preview of the film is available by visiting www.RememberNovember.com.

The film will debut Wednesday, September 8 at E Street Cinema in Washington, D.C. as well as online.

“Chris Christie’s campaign, transition and first eight months in office is a case study of how the RGA, our candidates and governors are reviving the Republican Party,” said RGA Executive Director Nick Ayers.

“Few people in January of 2009 gave us a chance to win a state Obama had just carried by nearly 15 points, and even fewer thought a Republican could fundamentally change a state dominated by Democrats,” Ayers continued. “But Chris Christie and the RGA adopted a ‘no excuses’ mentality and proved the pundits wrong.”

“Over the last 18 months, this model has shown the path forward for our Party,” Ayers said. “Americans are begging for political leaders who will reduce spending and impose fiscal sanity, and Chris Christie is delivering.”

When it is released, A New Jersey will be the longest in a series of videos reminding voters of the importance of this year’s elections. The previously released Remember November videos have been loaded more than two million times on the web.

“We have long said that our model to rebuild the party begins at the state level with governors’ races,” Ayers said. “The RGA’s $7 million investment in New Jersey combined with Chris Christie’s candidacy and his transformational leadership as governor is a preview of what we can accomplish if conservatives Remember November.”

CORRECTION: An earlier version of this post linked to the wrong RGA trailer. It has been replaced.

From NBC's Ali Weinberg
Before leaving for a ten-day vacation in Martha's Vineyard, President Obama criticized Congressional Republicans for blocking a bill that would increase loans and reduce taxes for small businesses.

Obama added that Republican opposition to the bill, which failed to pass by a 58-42 margin at the end of July, "defies common sense," asserting that the bill incorporated both Republican and Democratic ideas.

He added that today's announcement of record jobless claims, as well as a new Labor Department report that 60% of job losses come from small businesses, underscore the need for Congress to pass a bill when it reconvenes in the fall.

Unemployment claims increased by 12,000 last week to 500,000 -- the first time the benefits have reached the half-million mark since November, according to the AP.

"When Congress reconvenes," Obama said, "this jobs bill will be the first business out of the gate and the Senate Republican leadership needs to stop its efforts to block it."

NBC's Mike Viqueira, who is traveling with the president in Martha's Vineyard, reports that on the heels of polls showing a substantial number of Americans either don't know what religion President Obama is, or think -- falsely -- that he's a Muslim, the White House is out with a statement on the president's Christian faith and what it means to him.

Attributed to Jen Psaki, White House deputy communications director:

President Obama is a committed Christian, and his faith is an important part of his daily life. He prays every day, he seeks a small circle of Christian pastors to give him spiritual advice and counseling, he even receives a daily devotional that he uses each morning. The President's Christian faith is a part of who he is, but not a part of what the public or the media is focused on everyday.

The poll's findings are not surprising given the scope of the issues we are focused on-a recovering economy, bringing troops home from Iraq, putting healthcare and financial reform implementation in place. The President's strong Christian faith is what guides him through these challenges but he doesn't wear it on his sleeve.

Outside groups are ramping up for the fall. We saw EMILY's List anti-Sarah Palin fundraising campaign, now on the other end of the political spectrum, the conservative Club for Growth is wading into competitive House races in TN-8, AR-2, SC-5, and IN-9. The races are all rated in First Read's Field of 64 (in rank order by likelihood they will switch parties): No. 5 AR-2, No. 32 TN-8, No. 39 SC-5, No. 48 IN-9.

CQ Politics reports:

"The club is backing farmer Stephen Fincher in Tennessee's open 8th district and attorney Tim Griffin in Arkansas open 2nd district. It also endorsed state Sen. Mick Mulvaney in his fight against House Budget Committee Chairman John Spratt in South Carolina's 5th district and attorney Todd Young against Rep. Barron Hill in Indiana's 9th district. The club has endorsed 21 candidates so far this cycle but before now its House endorsements have been in safely Republican districts where the only competition was in GOP primaries. Club spokesman Mike Connolly acknowledged Thursday that the latest endorsements are the result of the group turning its attention to the general election. ... Last cycle, the club dropped about $24 million supporting candidates it had endorsed. Club officials have said they expect to exceed that spending total this cycle."

The club has been criticized in past elections (by First Read included) for backing more conservative candidates in primaries than more moderate ones who would have a better chance at winning in some districts like in NY-23 in 2009. In these cases, these are the candidates who have already won primaries.