From msnbc.com's Carrie Dann:

Washington DC is buzzing this morning, especially around the Lincoln Memorial, site of Glenn Beck's Restoring Honor rally. Speakers at the event include Sarah Palin and St. Louis Cardinals manager Tony La Russa.

The rally has attracted tens of thousands (or many more according to one estimate), including many tea party-type supporters, a group we profiled here yesterday, What message are attendees trying to send and what are they expecting to hear and achieve with today's rally? Carrie Dann is on the Mall to find out. That and more from the Mall in a running update below:

"The cocoon": Joe, who declined to give his last name, is a groundskeeper from Lancaster, Pa. He says attendees are here to send a message about what he calls the "the cocoon" of D.C., where lawmakers have "no idea what's really going on out there." He says his wife has been looking for work for 18 months.

He stands by Beck's message that today isn't about politics.

"It's not about Sarah Palin," he says, "It's about unity in this country."

Big goverment: Ken and Arlene Fogg came to D.C. From Sanbonville, N.H. Today's a familiar feeling - they were here for the 9/12 march last year. (Today's rally might be a little smaller, Arlene cautioned.)

Military veteran Ken Fogg says he's here mainly to protest government spending by "this ridiculous administration." The president, he said, is "a communist."

Ken says he voted Republican in 2008 but is no fan of McCain, who failed to question Obama hard enough on issues like his legal birth certificate. He was disappointed to see McCain win his senate primary last week.

Off the couch: John and Bobbi Janson from Allentown, Pa. say they've always voted, but that they're heeding the call of Beck and others to step up their civic efforts.

"We've been sitting on the couch too long," says Bobbi.

But they shy away from the word "political" and say that they don't donate to any political parties. They share the small-government values of the Tea Party but don't think of themselves as members.

"'Political'... That's like a used car salesman," Bobbi says.

The retirees say they don't feel represented by lawmakers, who break promises to their constituents. "Just don't run on something you don't intend to do," John says.

On Palin, Bobbi thinks sometimes her statements are a little too radical for many peoples' taste. "Some things are really far out there, but she's not off the mark all the time."

Carrie Dann tweets: Folks here very adamant that they don't vote only for Rs. Most say they're indies or have voted Dem at least once.

"We've got to turn back to God": Butch and Sylvia Wilson took a tour bus to D.C. with 50 other attendees from Harwood, Ga. this morning.

Sylvia watches Beck every day and says she's bought all of his books. 'He's an honest man," she says.

She calls Obama "a crook" - Butch jumps in to say that his administration is "trying to ruin the country."

"He's just a puppy," Sylvia adds about Obama, "there's all kinds of people pulling his strings. Unions, George Soros, all the people in the administration."

The retired couple say they "absolutely" think of themselves as Tea Party advocates and that their top concern is government debt.

But also of great concern is the state of faith in the country. "We've got to turn back to God and ask for forgiveness," Sylvia says. "And we support godly people in office."

Heat causing concern: There is frustration by medical personnel trying to evacuate dehydrated folks, of which there is a steady stream.

One mounted police officer was shushed by the crowd as he shouted for them to clear the way.

"We're not trying to be nice here people," he snapped, "We're trying to save somebody's life!"

McCain no hero among some: A construction contractor from Boston, Mass., didn't want to be named because his "name is already on a government list somewhere"

But he warned that we are "on the verge of a civil war" over immigration. People "won't stand for" citizenship and benefits for illegal immigrants, he says.

He said he is unhappy his home senator, Scott Brown, for "stabbing us in the back" by supporting the financial regulation bill passed last month and says it's a "tragedy" that McCain won his primary in Arizona last week.

NBC's Domenico Montanaro tweets from the Mall: There won't be official #s. Parks Svc/police don't do that anymore. But official at top of memorial said 300-325K. There are a LOT of people.

Sparks of tension: A counter-rally group called MLK "celebratethedream" is on scene with a banner that labels Beck "a nightmare."

Organizers from that group engaged in arguments about race and history with rally attendees. The two groups engaged in a shrill volley of insults, Carrie Dann reports, with labels such as "racists," and "communists" exchanged. The tensions have calmed for the moment with police officers at the scene.

Closing thoughts from Carrie Dann: Today's rally was indisputably huge. NBC's Domenico Montanaro noted one park service official's estimate of over 300,000 but please note that the park service no longer provides "official" estimates.

People came from as far as Washington State - although many that I spoke with were from up and down the Eastern seaboard.

Most were on relentlessly on message, deemphasizing the political overtones of the event and highlighting the religious and unifying themes instead.

And almost every person I spoke with wanted to highlight that they don't think of themselves as Republicans. They vote "their conscience" and pay little attention to the party apparatus.

(That's not to say that they don't hold the most conservative of views -- Obama's birth certificate, union conspiracies, even the threat of civil war were mentioned. But those issues came up only when prompted to weigh in on Democrats and the administration)

Disillusionment with government seems to be the common thread that unites them. Many people said they have been bitterly disappointed with their elected officials - Republicans and Democrats alike. "They're all breaking their promises," one woman told me. Another man from Massachussetts accused Scott Brown for "stabbing us in the back" once he got to Washington.

One political figure whose name was mentioned frequently: Sen. John McCain. Three supporters - unprompted - mentioned their disappointment with his primary victory, deriding the former GOP presidential nominee as "a liberal."

And to a man (or woman), each Beck supporter I spoke with planned to vote in November -- and was eager to push the attributes of the candidates they support.

At this weekend’s “Restoring Honor” rally, Tea Party devotees will descend on the city they love to hate: Washington D.C.

Master of Ceremonies Glenn Beck and the "Restoring Honor" event organizers say that the rally is “a non-political and non-partisan event” that should not be characterized as a “Tea Party rally.” But appearances by Beck and Sarah Palin ensure that many or most of the attendees will be people who share the conservative small-government principles that unite Tea Party fans.

But just who makes up the Tea Party? We dug deep into the crosstabs of the latest NBC/WSJ poll conducted by Peter Hart and Bill McInturff to learn a little more about this group - a little less than a third of registered voters - who say they're interested in voting for Tea Party candidates.

It is true that Tea Party supporters are mostly white. According to the NBC/WSJ poll, 84 percent of registered voters who said they may be interested in voting for the Tea Party were white, while about 6 percent were black, and 3 percent were Hispanic. (But it’s also worth noting that the dominance of white Tea Party supporters is no more dramatic than the racial breakdown for the GOP as a whole; in the same sample, 90 percent of respondents who classified themselves as Republican were white.)

Tea Party voters also tend to be older. Six in ten of the Tea Party voters in the poll were over 45 years old.

About 60 percent of those who said they were interested in voting for Tea Party candidates do not have a college degree. That’s about the same as registered voters at large. About 40 percent reported an annual household income of over $75,000 – making them a tad more affluent than the rest of the public.

Tea Party voters do tend to identify as Republicans, and they are closely aligned with the rest of the GOP on dimensions like their disapproval of Barack Obama and their view of the direction the country is headed. But just because most of these voters are Republicans, it doesn't mean that Republicans are big fans of the Tea Party. Almost half of self-identified Republicans say they are neutral on the Tea Party, have negative feelings about it, or are unable to say what they think about it at all.

So how are Tea Party voters different from your garden-variety GOPer?

One hint might be their job security. A quarter of Tea Party voters in the August survey said they are “very dissatisfied” with their job security, compared to only 16 percent of Republicans overall.

They’re also more likely to be dissatisfied with the current state of the Republican Party. Thirty-six percent of poll respondents who are interested in voting for Tea Party candidates say they have negative feelings about the GOP. (Only about one in five generic Republicans say the same.)

They're not all Republicans. Hart and McInturff found that about nine percent of their May sample represented independents and Democrats who view the Tea Party positively. These Americans are particularly disaffected; more than 20 percent of this group did not vote in the 2008 election, and more than half believe that the country's political and economic systems put them at a disadvantage.

And, they’re energized. Seventy-two percent of Tea Party voters say they’re very interested in the November election. (For Republicans overall, it’s a handful of points lower at 68 percent.) Those numbers spell trouble for Democrats, half of whose voters are lukewarm about the election.

Of course, the folks who are taking the time to travel to Washington D.C. for the “Restoring Honor” rally won’t be exactly representative of all Tea Party voters. But you can bet a lot of reporters will be asking questions of the enthusiastic attendees of Beck’s much-publicized event.

This is certainly going to spark some conspiracy theories in the competitive Rick Perry-vs.-Bill White gubernatorial contest in Texas. Harris County is Houston, where White was mayor and where his base should come from on Election Day.

The Houston Chronicle reports:

Harris County Clerk Beverly Kaufman this morning said she is confident of timely, clean elections in November, even as a fire that destroyed the county's entire inventory of 10,000 electronic voting machines still burned.

Kaufman urged voters to cast their ballots early to help the county cope with a possible shortage of equipment on election day.

"Because I don’t expect to have 10,000 pieces to work with, no matter what we do, I’m sure that we’re going to be putting on a full court press urging people to vote early," Kaufman said.

[snip]

Houston Fire Department spokesman Patrick Trahan said arson investigators were at the scene of the fire, but no cause has been determined.

The three-alarm blaze started about 4:15 a.m. at the football field-size warehouse the county uses to store its election equipment. Firefighters extinguished the flames about four hours later.

WATCH THE FULL WEEK AHEAD VIDEO HERE.

President Obama's vacation ends and addresses Katrina and Iraq. Plus, new jobs numbers, elections in West Virginia and Louisiana, the Glenn Beck-Sarah Palin rally, and a California Senate debate.

WATCH THE FULL WEEK AHEAD VIDEO HERE.

Joe Miller, who leads incumbent Sen. Lisa Murkowski by less than 2,000 votes, Tweeted the following today:

@JoeWMiller: What's the difference b/n selling out your party's values and the oldest profession? http://bit.ly/93kXBr

Oldest profession? The Tweet has since been deleted. (Hat tip: Swing State Project for having the screen shot of the deleted Tweet.)

*** UPDATE *** Miller has issued an apology via Twitter, blaming the message on a staffer and saying that it had been referring to Libertarians, not Murkowski herself. "Please accept my apologies. Staffer trying to encourage Libertarians not to sell out," he wrote.

Murkowski, for her part, issued a blistering statement.

"Alaskans deserve better. This type of statement is inexcusable from someone who wants to represent our state,” Senator Murkowski said. “While I have been focused on the remaining ballots, the Miller campaign has launched yet another smear campaign against me. They lied about my record during the primary and now they have resorted to name-calling–it’s disgusting.”

“Alaskan values have never included a complete disregard for the truth or a lack of common decency,” Murkowski said. “Mr. Miller owes all Alaskans, women and my family an apology.”

From msnbc.com's Tom Curry:

Lisa Murkowski's uncertain future and John McCain's victory in Arizona's GOP primary this week are reminders that in the summer of 2006 -- four long years ago – there was a Republican immigration reform bloc which voted for allowing illegal immigrants to become legal residents.

Both Murkowski and McCain were members of that pro-reform bloc, as was Republican Senate Leader Mitch McConnell.
Twenty-three Republican senators voted for the 2006 McCain-Kennedy comprehensive immigration reform, which passed the Senate by a vote of 62 to 36.

At most, only seven of those 23 GOP senators will still be members when the Senate convenes next January.

They are: McCain, McConnell, Lindsey Graham, Maine's Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe, and Richard Lugar of Indiana. Add Murkowski, if she prevails once absentee ballots are tallied in Alaska.

But the other 16 Republican reform supporters from 2006 are gone from the Senate, or soon will be.

Defeated this year were Robert Bennett of Utah and former Republican Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania. Retiring at year's end are three more: Sam Brownback, Judd Gregg, and George Voinovich. Mel Martinez left the Senate last year.

Defeated in 2008 were Norm Coleman, Gordon Smith, and Ted Stevens. Another five GOP senators retired that year. Two more were defeated in 2006.
In a few cases, the pro-reform GOP senators were replaced by liberal Democrats who'd support an immigration measure along the lines of the McCain-Kennedy bill. For instance, liberal Republican Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island, who voted for the McCain-Kennedy bill, was defeated in 2006 by liberal Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse, who voiced support for the legislation.

But in other cases, a likely anti-reform vote will replace a pro-reform vote. In Utah, conservative Mike Lee is almost certain to win in November after having defeated Bennett in Utah.

Lee says on his campaign web site that Congress must ensure that "illegal aliens will not receive amnesty in any form, and must return to their own countries before applying for a visa."

He also supports Graham's idea of ending the automatic granting of citizenship to children born in the United State to illegal immigrant mothers.
By the way, the then junior senator from Illinois, Barack Obama, voted for the 2006 McCain-Kennedy bill.

It included a provision that said state and local police and sheriffs "have the inherent authority of a sovereign entity to investigate, apprehend, arrest, detain, or transfer to Federal custody" non-citizens in order to help enforce "the criminal provisions of the immigration laws of the United States in the normal course of carrying out the law enforcement duties of such personnel."

It added, "This State authority has never been displaced or preempted by a Federal law."

The exact extent of that state authority is one issue in the Obama administration's legal battle to block enforcement of Arizona's much-debated SB 1070 which sets up an immigration status-verification system to be used by police.

From NBC's Mark Murray
Charlie Crist (I) today reversed his position on the health-care law -- twice in one day.

In an interview, he said this: "I would have voted for it, but I think it can be done better. I really do."

But as Adam Smith of the St. Pete Times notes, this was a reversal on what Crist said about the law last month: "Had I been in the United States Senate at the time, I would have voted against the bill because of unacceptable provisions like the cuts to the Medicare Advantage program. But being an independent, I have the freedom to be an honest broker for the people of Florida without regard for political party, and the reality is this: despite its serious flaws, the Obama health care bill does have some positive aspects."

And now Crist's campaign has reversed itself from the reversal with this statement:

If I misspoke, I want to be abundantly clear: the health care bill was too big, too expensive, and expanded the role of government far too much. Had I been in the United States Senate at the time, I would have voted against the bill because of unacceptable provisions like the cuts to the Medicare Advantage program.

The Orlando Sentinel's Jim Stratton wonders if Florida voters have come to accept Crist's shape-shifting ways. "Could it be that many voters give Crist a pass on his chameleon-like ability to change his mind? He’s been doing it for an awfully long time, yet he keeps getting elected... If they don’t expect him to hold firm on a policy issue, they’re not devastated if he switches. They might not like it, but, so far, it hasn’t alienated them enough to abandon Crist."

From NBC's Lea Sutton
Not so fast!

That was Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Chris Van Hollen's message today for congressional Republicans, who he says are "already popping the champagne bottles" to celebrate November's elections. During a news conference at the National Press Club, Van Hollen said Republicans were having a "pre-mature celebration" and that Democrats will retain the majority.

He listed three reasons why he believes the GOP will be disappointed in November:
1) Americans don't want to return to the same economic policy that "got us into trouble in the first place." Van Hollen said that after eight years of the Bush administration, "our economy was driven into the ditch."

2) GOP candidates emerging from primaries across the country are on the "far right" of the political spectrum, and that is not what America wants.

3) "Campaigns do matter," and congressional Democrats have been preparing since last year. "We have been prepping for what we knew would be tough midterms from the beginning", he said

In particular, Van Hollen blamed George W. Bush's economic policies for the damaged economy, saying that 700,000 jobs per month were being lost when Bush left office and that there was a "1.3 trillion deficit the day President Obama was sworn into office." He said that Republicans, like House Minority Leader John Boehner, planned to enact the same agenda going forward, and that the American people don't want that.

When asked if he was concerned about recent Democratic campaign advertisements that seemed to be "running away from" Speaker Pelosi and President Obama, the Democrat said that the job of a member of Congress is to represent their constituents; that the Democrats have a spectrum of views; and that they are doing the right thing by demonstrating that they are "independent thinkers."

From NBC's Mark Murray
Today's top news:
*** "The U.S. economy grew at a 1.6 percent annual rate in the second quarter, less than previously calculated, as companies reined in inventories and the trade deficit widened," Business Week writes.

*** The investigations cometh, if Republicans take back the House. Politico: "If President Barack Obama needed any more incentive to go all out for Democrats this fall, here it is: Republicans are planning a wave of committee investigations targeting the White House and Democratic allies if they win back the majority. Everything from the microscopic – the New Black Panther party – to the massive –- think bailouts – is on the GOP to-do list."

*** The latest in the still-undecided Joe Miller vs. Lisa Murkowski GOP Senate primary: "The Alaska Division of Elections said Thursday that it has more than 20,000 absentee and questioned ballots left to process from Tuesday's primary election. Most are expected to be Republican primary ballots that will decide the too-close-to-call race," the Anchorage Daily News reports. "The state has received back 11,266 absentee ballots so far out of over 16,000 requested. The ballots had to be postmarked by Tuesday's election but can come in as much as 15 days afterward. There are also 658 early votes not yet counted and 8,972 questioned ballots."

On today's political radar:
*** At 10:00 am ET, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Chris Van Hollen is delivering a speech at the National Press Club, where he describe the choice between Democratic governance and the GOP's. "Van Hollen's remarks will focus on Republican Leader John Boehner's speech earlier this week outlining House Republicans' destructive agenda and the Tea Party pushing Republican to the extreme right," a DCCC spokesman tells First Read. "Van Hollen will also highlight the DCCC's National Day of Action where volunteers will knock more than 200,000 neighbors doors this Saturday."

*** Relatedly, the Democratic National Committee has released a Web video highlighting the GOP's conservative nominees. The video is entitled: "GOP Tea Party: These People Could be in Charge."

*** At 11:00 am ET, a group of progressives and women's organizations are hosting a conference call to demand that President Obama fire former GOP Sen. Alan Simpson as co-chair of the president's deficit reduction commission -- after controversial comments Simpson made in talking about Social Security.

Looking at the midterm races:
*** A new Las Vegas Review-Journal/Mason-Dixon poll shows Harry Reid at 45% and Sharron Angle at 44%. The more interesting news from the poll: "Two-thirds of voters who say they back Sharron Angle wish another Republican had won the nomination... And 58 percent of [undecided] voters say they wish Reid hadn't won the Democratic nomination, suggesting a majority of Nevadans are unhappy with their choices."

*** "Two days after he lost the Republican nomination for governor, [Bill] McCollum still refuses to support winner Rick Scott, and continues to raise questions about his former rival's character," the Miami Herald writes about the lingering bad blood after Tuesday's GOP gubernatorial primary in Florida.

Note: On Fridays during this month of August, we’re scaling back our morning note. But we’re still providing something to read as you head to the beach or take advantage (hopefully) of a long weekend.

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** First Read’s Top 10 Election Night upsets: After Tuesday’s shocking political outcome in Alaska, we came up with what we consider the Top 10 Election Night upsets so far this 2009-2010 cycle.

1. Scott Brown tops Martha Coakley: Maybe the biggest overall upset since Hillary Clinton’s New Hampshire primary victory. Coakley was supposed to be a sure thing in the race to fill Ted Kennedy’s Senate seat in blue Massachusetts. But out of nowhere, Brown began gaining ground on Coakley in the polls. On Election Night, he pulled off the stunner, ending the Democrats’ filibuster-proof majority.

2. Joe Miller vs. Lisa Murkowski: Tuesday’s Alaska Senate GOP primary -- which Miller now leads by 1,668 votes, with absentee ballots still be counted -- turned Conventional Wisdom on its head and reminded us that no incumbent is safe this cycle.

3. Lincoln edges Halter: Remember when the polls and C.W. pointed to Bill Halter beating Blanche Lincoln in the Democratic Senate run-off in Arkansas? Well, Lincoln pulled off the upset. Unfortunately for her, repeating that feat in November will be much more difficult.

4. NY-23: Democrat Bill Owens capitalized on GOP-vs.-Tea Party infighting and captured the special congressional election victory on Election Day 2009.

5. Meet Alvin Greene: In a South Carolina primary dominated by the competitive -- and salacious -- GOP gubernatorial race, unknown Alvin Greene bested state lawmaker and judge Vic Rawl to win the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate. Afterward, we discovered that Greene was unemployed and had been arrested on a charge of felony obscenity.

6. Nikki Haley turns into GOP star: Speaking of that GOP gubernatorial race in South Carolina, state Rep. Nikki Haley rode a Sarah Palin endorsement to beat some of the biggest names in state politics -- Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer, state Attorney General Henry McMaster, and Rep. Gresham Barrett. Yes, Haley led in the polls heading into the primary, and she cruised to victory in the run-off. But considering where she came from, that’s an upset in our book.

7. Deal vs. Handel: Although the Palin endorsement helped Haley, it wasn’t enough for Karen Handel, who -- in a bit of a surprise -- lost her GOP gubernatorial run-off in Georgia against ex-Rep. Nathan Deal.

8. Scott beats McCollum: Fueled by the millions of dollars he poured into the race, Rick Scott jumped out to a lead over Bill McCollum in the GOP primary for Florida governor. But some late polls showed McCollum retaking the lead. Scott, however, pulled out the win on Tuesday.

9. Labrador fetches a win: In Idaho’s GOP congressional primary, Vaughn Ward was the establishment’s top choice to take on incumbent Dem Rep. Walt Minnick. But after a series of gaffes by Ward -- including allegations of plagiarizing Obama’s famous 2004 convention speech -- Raul Labrador won the contest.

10. Just Askins: Despite trailing in the polls, Lt. Gov. Jari Askins defeated state Attorney General Drew Edmondson in Oklahoma’s Democratic gubernatorial primary. Askins now faces Republican Mary Fallin in the race to become the state’s first female governor.

*** UPDATE *** The Hotline's Dan Roem reminds us of two other upsets this cycle: Robert Bentley winning Alabama's GOP gubernatorial primary, and Ron Sparks defeating Artur Davis in Alabama's Dem gubernatorial primary.

Conservative Democratic Rep. Bobby Bright, who's facing a tough race for his congressional seat in Alabama, undoubtedly wants to put a little distance between himself and the national Democratic Party. After all, President Obama won just 37% in the district in 2008.

But is this a little too much distance?

The Montgomery Advertiser reports:

Bright, who is in his first year in Congress and facing a battle against Montgomery City Councilwoman Martha Roby this fall, joked that Pelosi might lose her own election, decide not to run for the speaker’s job or otherwise not be available.

He suggested, jokingly he insisted to his audience, that Pelosi could fall ill and die in coming months. That remark drew laughter from the crowd.

Greg Sargent called the paper's reporter, Cosby Woodruff, to get more on the context of Bright's remarks. "He had been asked a question from the audience about his support for Pelosi," Woodruff told Sargent. "He said, `Let's wait until that comes up. He listed a long list of reasons why Pelosi might not run for Speaker of the House."

"The last one was, `heck, she might even get sick and die.'"

In March of 2004, President George W. Bush launched the first ads of his re-election campaign. Moments into one of the spots, a few misty images of the decimated Twin Towers and New York City firefighters drifted across the screen before a slow dissolve into video of a family hoisting an American flag.

An outcry soon followed.

Families of 9/11 victims urged Bush to pull the ads. One firefighter compared the use of the photos to the looting of nearby stores during the chaos after the plane hit. “The image of firefighters at Ground Zero should not be used for this stuff, for politics,” he fumed.

“Just look at the amount of attention those two seconds got,” says Ken Goldstein, director of the Wisconsin Advertising Project. Goldstein notes that only a handful of political ads in 2002 hazarded references to September 11, 2001. But by October 2004, up to 7 percent of political advertisements for federal candidates made reference to the attacks, according to the Project's count.

And when a plan to build an Islamic community center two blocks from the site of the attacks in Manhattan burst into a national political controversy last month, a few political ads featuring the smoking ruins emerged again.

Rick Lazio, a Republican candidate for governor in New York, recently launched an ad that features 9/11 imagery while attacking Democrat Andrew Cuomo for defending the construction of the mosque. Missouri GOP Senate candidate Roy Blunt ultimately pulled down a similarly-themed Web spot that slammed opponent Robin Carnahan's position on the issue. (Blunt said he did not even know about the clip until it was removed.)

Networks flatly rejected another ad, produced by the National Republican Trust PAC, that featured the most graphic footage from the plane crashes and portrayed Muslims as armed jihadists.

So, are 9/11 images still taboo in American politics? And are they worth the risk?

“Tough imagery works – but only if it fits, if it has context,” says Professor John Geer of Vanderbilt University. “It’s like playing with fire, but fire can be a very powerful weapon.”

Studies show ads that cause anxiety can make viewers more open to new information, adds Christopher Weber, a Louisiana State University professor who studies political communication. For political candidates hoping to snare undecided voters, that can be an enticing proposition. (Also, according to research in this field, you’re much more likely to remember negative information associated with a candidate than positive information.)

But it can also be risky, Weber cautions – and not just because of the political blowback a candidate may experience if an ad presents controversial and stressful images. Research subjects who watched political ads that exposed them to too much fear or anxiety had trouble learning new facts and were less motivated to vote.

Still, political advertising experts point out, a provocative ad with images of the Pentagon or the Twin Towers can make a point, even if it’s never seen by most voters. Ads that reference 9/11 get free airtime as media outlets cover them, and they can often drive journalists to reframe elections around national security and foreign policy issues. “The audience is really not the public," Geer says. "It's the Fourth Estate."

The Senate race is Connecticut has essentially turned into a contest between Richard Blumenthal's (D) mischaracterization of his military service and Linda McMahon's (R) stewardship of World Wrestling Entertainment.

And for McMahon, there's this tough headline in the New London (CT) Day: "Dead wrestler's father blasts McMahon, WWE"

From the story:

Harley McNaught was planning to stay silent and grieve. Then he saw what Linda McMahon said about his dead son.

McMahon, the former CEO of World Wrestling Entertainment, was asked last week about the death of McNaught's son, who wrestled for the WWE as Lance Cade and who had struggled with an addiction to painkillers before being released by the company, then dying earlier this month of heart failure.

"I might have met him once," McMahon said as she insisted that the company could not be blamed for deaths of its employees outside the ring.

That response has left Harley McNaught and his son's other survivors furious.

"I've been with him on two different WWE functions where she came up to him and knew him by name," McNaught said in an interview from his office in San Antonio, where Lance died, aged 29, on Aug. 13.

"She disrespected him," McNaught said. "She disrespected my family."

As we've mentioned before, you've got to wonder if this Senate campaign has been good for WWE's business.

Three different ways GOP moderates have tried to survive the Tea Party’s takeover of the GOP… Miller leads Murkowski by 1,688 votes in Alaska… And Murkowski can’t really pull a full Lieberman and run as an independent… The latest maneuvers in Florida’s fascinating three-way Senate race… Rick Scott appears on "Daily Rundown"... Profiling NV-3… And Scott Brown raises money for Mark Kirk.

From NBC's Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** Surviving the Tea Party’s takeover of the GOP: One of the more profound changes in American politics is how much more conservative the nominees inside the Republican Party have become. The Tea Party and Jim DeMint are now closer to the representing the center of the GOP, not George W. Bush and his “compassionate conservatism.” This has presented longtime Republican moderates/centrists with a dilemma of what to do, and we’ve seen three different responses so far, which were on display in some form this past Tuesday. One path was demonstrated by John McCain, who decided to shift his positions (on immigration, Supreme Court judges) just enough to the right. He easily won his primary on Tuesday. A second response was exemplified by Lisa Murkowski, who essentially stayed as she was. She appears headed for a defeat in the too-close-to-call GOP Senate primary in Alaska. And a third trail was blazed by Charlie Crist, who decided to leave his party. He’s currently engaged in Florida’s three-way Senate contest. Who charted the right course?

*** Stuck in the middle with you? This rightward movement inside the GOP appears likely to pay big dividends this fall. Republicans are energized, Democrats are not (right now), and the economy is hardly humming -- all of which are a recipe for significant Republican gains in November. But when we head into the 2012 presidential election, when the electorate expands, you got to wonder if a Republican Party that doesn’t have room for a John McCain of 2001-2007, a Charlie Crist of 2007-2008, or a Lisa Murkowski of 2010 can reclaim the center of American politics and the presidency, even if they gain control of Congress in the fall. Then again, the center will judge the GOP on not just how it conducts itself if they get the majority, but on the results.

*** Miller leads Murkowski by 1,688 votes: Joe Miller’s lead over Murkowski has narrowed to 1,688 votes (47,027 to 45,359) with all Alaska precincts now reporting, the Anchorage Daily News reports. “More than 16,000 absentees were requested from the Division of Elections and about 7,600 of them have come back so far… None of the absentees has been counted. Absentee ballots had to be postmarked by Tuesday but could arrive up to 10 days after the election if mailed in the United States and 15 days if overseas. The Division of Elections will do its first count Aug. 31, with additional counts scheduled for Sept. 3 and Sept. 8.” Using the 16,000 number, it means Murkowski would need to win 56% of the absentee vote to make up the difference.

*** Murkowski can’t pull a full Lieberman: If Murkowski ends up falling short, there’s speculation that she might want to pull a Lieberman or a Crist and run as an independent. But Murkowski really can’t pull a Lieberman if she ends up falling short after the absentee ballots are counted. Gail Fenumiai, director of Alaska's Division of Elections, told First Read that the deadline for independents/no party affiliation candidates to file was June 1. But Murkowski still has a couple of potential options: 1) file as a write-in candidate or 2) get the Libertarian candidate Fredrick "David" Haase to step down and have the party name her as replacement.

*** The latest movement in Florida: We’re convinced that Florida’s three-way Senate contest will be the most fascinating -- and unpredictable -- Senate race this fall. Here are some of the developments after Tuesday’s primaries: The Meek campaign issued press releases that highlighted Crist previously calling himself a conservative, trying to blunt Crist’s appeal among Democrats… After Meek’s primary victory, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee released a statement praising Meek’s win, but didn’t name his opponents as it had done after past primaries… And Marco Rubio released his first general-election TV ad, which appeared to be an obvious attempt to gain support beyond his GOP base. Lots of maneuvering by all three sides… By the way, meet Rick Scott, the GOP nominee for governor in Florida, on today's “Daily Rundown.” http://bit.ly/bHO54M

*** 75 House races to watch: NV-3: The Democratic nominee is freshman Rep. Dina Titus, while the GOP nominee is former state Sen. Joe Heck. Obama won 55% in this district in ’08, and Bush won 50% in ’04. As of June 30, Titus had $1.2 million in the bank, compared with Heck’s $360,000. Titus voted yes on the stimulus, cap-and-trade, and health care. Cook rates the contest a Toss Up, and Rothenberg has it Toss Up/Tilt Republican.

*** More midterms: In Illinois, Scott Brown is holding a fundraiser for GOP Senate nominee Mark Kirk… In Kentucky’s Senate race, Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour will stump for Rand Paul on Sept. 19… And in Nevada, Harry Reid “personally called out Sharron Angle after an audio clip came to light this week in which his Republican challenger agreed with a conservative radio host that there are ‘domestic enemies’ in the Senate and Congress,” the Las Vegas Review-Journal writes.

Countdown to LA primaries: 2 days
Countdown to DC, MD. MA, NH, NY, RI, and WI primaries: 19 days
Countdown to HI primaries: 23 days
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 68 days

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"President Barack Obama will deliver his second major speech from the Oval Office next week when he addresses the nation on Iraq, the White House announced Wednesday."

Will there be outrage like there was last year? Yesterday, the White House also announced that Obama would deliver a speech to students on Sept. 14, which will be broadcast in schools and nationwide.

"President Obama took a break from his Martha's Vineyard vacation on Wednesday to phone his economic advisers, including Timothy Geithner and Larry Summers," The Hill writes. "The call came one day after House GOP Leader John Boehner (Ohio) called on Obama to fire his Treasury Secretary, Geithner, and the head of the National Economic Council, Summers, in a speech blasting the administration's economic policies."

"More than 3 million seniors may have to switch their Medicare prescription plan next year, even if they are perfectly happy with it, because of an attempt by the government to simplify their lives," the AP writes. "The policy change could turn into a hassle for seniors who had not intended to switch plans during Medicare’s open enrollment season this fall. And it risks undercutting President Obama’s promise that people who like their health care plans can keep them."

"Yesterday marked the anniversary of Kennedy’s death, an occasion that, even before the cemetery’s iron gates opened to the public, drew Kennedy’s youngest son, Patrick, according to cemetery officials," the Boston Globe reports. "The dew was still fresh on the ground. Rainwater dripped from the cross on Kennedy’s grave. One early visitor left a small sailboat with three colorful sails, a remembrance of Kennedy’s passion for the sea."

From msnbc.com's Vaughn Ververs:

Approximately 99.8 percent of Americans don't live in the state of Alaska. Among national political journalists and pundits that number may be north of 100 percent, if that's possible.

Most of the nation knows next to nothing about our 49th state outside of the long winter nights and summer days, the Deadliest Catch or the Iditarod sled dog race. The political world has recently gotten a crash course on Alaska, thanks to Sarah Palin's sudden emergence onto the scene two years ago.

But the surprised reaction emanating from the East Coast Wednesday morning over the state's Republican Senate primary shows there's a great deal left to be learned about politics in the last frontier. The fact that a totally unknown attorney like Joe Miller could be on the verge of defeating incumbent Lisa Murkowski (who was supposed to win overwhelmingly according to the polls) had heads spinning in Washington today.

What happened? Was it Palin (who backed Miller and has feuded with Murkowski)? Was it the Tea Party (elements of which were in the race early and often -- the Our Country Deserves Better PAC/TeaPartyExpress.org spent over $500,000 on the race in the last month)? Is it part of the anti-Washington, anti-establishment sentiment that seems to have popped up elsewhere this year?

Perhaps it was a little bit of those things, but there are other factors to consider as well, most of them involving the particular nature of Alaskans.

The state is hard to understand not just because it is so far away from the political heartbeat in Washington but because it is so inaccessible. Anyone can drop into Dayton, Ohio or Denver, Colorado for a short period of time and pick up the vibe of the place. They can read the local papers, watch the local news, and talk to the local folks.

Parachuting into Wasilla for days, weeks or even months may give you an idea of what that city is and how it operates but tells you nothing about living in Fairbanks, Juneau, Valdez, Nome, Kotzebue, Kodiak or Ketchikan.

Just fewer than 700,000 people live in the state, about 280,000 of whom reside in Anchorage, the largest city. Yet if you were to superimpose the state over the "lower 48," it would stretch from the Canadian Border to the Gulf of Mexico, or twisted another way, it parts of it would stretch from the Atlantic to the Pacific oceans.

So it's a big place, one that can't be easy to poll. It's also a remote part of the world, something we were reminded of by the fatal plane crash that took the life of former Sen. Ted Stevens just weeks ago.

As someone who lived in various parts of the state growing up (including Wasilla) for a total of about five years, and someone who has had family living there for more than 20 years, I'm no expert but think I can bring a little perspective to the situation.

Life is fundamentally different in Alaska, as are many of the customs and some of the language. That's not unique in the U.S. but while other regional differences have become ingrained in our overall national culture, Alaska's remoteness keeps it a mystery.

There were chuckles, laughs and head-shaking when Sarah Palin talked about the "snowmachine" her husband raced after being thrust onto the 2008 stage. It didn't strike me as strange or funny in the least. That's what Alaskans call the vehicle that most Americans know as a snowmobile.

That's a simple example of the sort of unfamiliarity that likely led most campaign observers, including myself, to conclude at the outset of yesterday's primary that Lisa Murkowski would cruise to a win over Joe Miller. She may yet pull out a squeaker but it doesn't appear promising. Had I thought a little deeper and studied up just a little more, I might have picked up on some of the signs of a much closer contest.

The seniority argument: Murkowski made the sell that her eight years in the Senate and lessons learned from Stevens had placed her in a position to bring home the bacon. No doubt, Alaskans have benefited greatly from federal largess for decades and most of them don't want that to end. Stevens just barely lost his re-election bid in 2008 but only after he was convicted on seven felony counts of corruption. Had the trial drug on past the election or the charges thrown out before voters were forced to weigh in rather than after the fact, Stevens almost certainly would have prevailed. Alaskans never forgot what he meant for the state.

But this was a Republican primary and promises of more pork and reliance on Washington was never going to be the winning argument among a group of voters more riled up about what they see as a growing and intrusive federal government.

Palin and the Tea Party: That the Tea Party movement would get a warm reception in Alaska is hardly surprising. In many ways, Palin herself is a product of the libertarian, anti-government, leave-us-alone mentality that is ingrained in many Alaskans and so the attraction is natural between the two.

But it would be a mistake to overplay either Palin's impact or the movement's overall role in the state's politics. Alaskans have long been mostly united by a common goal: The use of the state's natural resources for their betterment. No issue in recent years has played a larger role than the bid to open up the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge for oil and natural gas exploration.

But just because the majority may be united on that issue doesn't mean voters agree on all others. The perception of Alaskans is that they dislike government – until it comes time to get the handouts. The reality is more complex than that, just as it is everywhere else. It's just that for some time now, one issue has dominated the state when it comes to sending officials to Washington. A Murkowski loss does not necessarily change that. A Democratic win in November might.

Abortion: Fewer than 100,000 voters participated in the GOP primary, not a terrible number considering the overall size of the state, but a smallish one nonetheless. Missed in much of the commentary and analysis was the contest over a ballot measure that would require parents to be notified before an abortion is provided to girls under 18 years of age. Social conservatives have long been a strong wing of the GOP there. Pat Buchanan won the state in his 1996 bid for the GOP presidential nomination. It is not surprising that such a measure would stir those passions.

The parental notification measure passed with 55 percent of the vote after a fierce campaign that bled over into the Senate contest as Miller forces turned Murkowski's support for abortion rights into an issue, even as she backed the ballot measure. A quick glance at the numbers show that more than three times more voters participated in the GOP Senate primary as the Democratic one, suggesting at least that the issue had some impact on turnout overall.

Frank Murkowski: When then-Senator Frank Murkowski was elected governor in 2002, he found himself in the awkward position of having to appoint his own successor. He picked his daughter.

The move never sat well with Alaskans of either party and voters would later pass an initiative to change the rules for future appointments. Alaska is most certainly not a dynasty state. Still, two years later, buoyed by President Bush's reelection, Lisa Murkowski narrowly won the seat outright over former Democratic Gov. Tony Knowles.

But Frank Murkowski's troubles in the state were then just beginning. After a tumultuous four years in the statehouse, a little-known former Wasilla mayor came from out of nowhere and defeated him in the Republican primary. Just four years later, Palin may get much of the credit (or blame) for the defeat of another Murkowski to a political unknown.

Only in Alaska.

Sen. Lisa Murkowski cannot pull a Joe Lieberman and run as an independent if she loses to upstart lawyer Joe Miller, according to state election law.

Gail Fenumiai, director of Alaska's Division of Elections, told First Read that the deadline for independents/no party affiliation candidates to file was June 1st. Collected signatures had to be turned in by yesterday.

Murkowski still has a couple of options potentially: (1) file as a write-in candidate, or (2) get the Libertarian candidate Fredrick "David" Haase to step down and the party names her as replacement.

At last count, Murkowski was down 1,492 votes after another wave of absentees came in. Murkowski was down 1,960 votes as of this morning. Murkowski's campaign was confident, it could win with thousands of remaining absentees to be counted.

The Alaska Daily News:

Murkowski campaign manager John Bitney said many people voted absentee before the final advertising blitz launched by the Tea Party Express. Bitney said the Murkowski campaign also had an outreach effort to people who had requested absentee ballots, reaching thousands of them.

From NBC's Mark Murray and Sarah Blackwill
Want more evidence that Marco Rubio (R) is trying to widen his appeal beyond his GOP base? Check out his first TV ad of the general election, which highlights his biography and his parents' search for the American Dream.

"My parents lost everything: their home, families, friends, even their country. But they found something too -- America," Rubio says in the ad. "What makes our story so special is that it isn't unique. The American dream is still a reality and I approve this message because that's worth fight for."

With Democrats trying to take advantage of the too-close-to-call GOP Senate primary in Alaska between Lisa Murkowski and Joe Miller, Republicans are passing around a clip of DNC Communications Director Brad Woodhouse unable to name the Democratic nominee ... Scott McAdams.

In fairness to Woodhouse, McAdams' name wasn't on our radar screen until today, either.

From NBC's Pete Williams
Justice Department lawyers are preparing to ask a federal judge to put a hold on his ruling this week that blocks awarding further federal grants for stem-cell research.

The federal government intends to appeal the ruling by U.S. District Court Judge Royce Lamberth. But an administration official says government lawyers will also argue that the injunction imposed by the judge will seriously jeopardize ongoing stem-cell research. Justice Department lawyers are now gathering affidavits to support that claim, the official says.

Groups opposed to research on stem cells obtained from human embryos have praised the judge's order. Americans United for Life called it a sensible ruling -- one that "reconfirms what we already knew, that administration policy is in violation of the law."

But some legal scholars are questioning Judge Lamberth's conclusion that the Obama administration's policy violates a federal law, one that says no federal funds can be used for research "in which" human embryos are destroyed. Because obtaining the stem cells destroys embryos, the judge said, it follows that subsequent research "is clearly research in which an embryo is destroyed."

But an expert on health-care law argues that the congressional ban does not prohibit federal funding of research that is "related to, associated with, has a connection to, or builds upon the fruits of" embryo destruction.

"It only prohibits funding of research in which embryos are destroyed," says UCLA Professor Russell Korobkin.

Because the law at issue is tacked onto congressional appropriations bills, he says, "the reasonable interpretation of the scope of the research in question is to follow the money in the grant request. If the grant application seeks money for an activity that directly results in embryo destruction, this proposal constitutes research "in which" the embryo is destroyed."

But writing on the legal blog of fellow UCLA law professor Eugene Volokh, Korobkin said if an applicant seeks money to study an existing stem-cell line, the research in question is not research "in which" the embryo is destroyed.

This is one way to make news at a debate.

A man running for mayor of Providence proposed to his girlfriend (who is also his campaign manager) during closing remarks at last night's debate. The candidate is Chris Young, described as a "perennial gadfly candidate" by local affiliate WPRI.

Scroll to 2:27 of the following video (hat tip: Taegan Goddard)

Politics is in the air, and so are various iterations of presidential-run denials and nondenials from possible GOP 2012 candidates.

Today's is Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, who told the Louisville Courier-Journal this morning that his lack of big dollar fundraising and primary-state jaunts provides proof that he's not eying the White House.

Says the paper, reporting on Daniels’ comments during a meeting with its editorial board:

“Daniels said he is not interested in the post, is not raising money for such a campaign and has not spent much time outside of Indiana. He said all are proof that he is not running.”

The motorcycle-riding gov has been coy before about whether he's planning a run, saying that he's "open" to the idea. In an interview on Fox News Sunday earlier this month, Daniels said:

"Many people have asked that I at least keep an open mind, and I've said all right. But you know, that's -- my attention is entirely fixed on the challenges and, I think, opportunities facing Indiana and trying to do the people's business well here, and that's where it's going to remain."

Daniels received some sunny press recently when GOP Sen. Dick Lugar said that he hopes that the governor “strongly” considers a White House bid.

Stunning development: Murkowski trails Miller by 1,960 votes in AK GOP Senate primary… We might not know the final result for days... How to explain why McCain easily won in AZ but Murkowski is in trouble: Anger is trumping accomplishments… That’s a lesson vulnerable Democrats might want to learn… If Miller wins, he’d be the fifth Tea Party insurgent to win a GOP Senate primary… Palin-ism bests Stevens-ism?... In FL, it’s Sink vs. Scott for governor, and Crist vs. Meek vs. Rubio for the Senate… How the Conventional Wisdom has been wrong in the Sunshine State…. And profiling NM-2.

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** Anger trumps accomplishments: So much for the idea that insiders were making a comeback last night. In a stunning development in Alaska's GOP Senate primary, incumbent Lisa Murkowski (R) trails virtually unknown Joe Miller, who was backed by the Tea Party and Sarah Palin, by 1,960 votes with 98% of precincts reporting. In Florida, meanwhile, wealthy outsider Rick Scott bested establishment politician Bill McCollum, even though McCollum led in some late polls. And proving that all it takes to triumph in a crowded GOP field in Arizona is to air an incendiary TV ad aimed at the president -- plus have a famous last name and the most money -- Ben Quayle won the Republican primary for the open congressional seat vacated by Rep. John Shadegg (R). In addition to being blows to Conventional Wisdom and some polling, these results tell us something very significant about American politics right now: The candidates who are channeling the public’s anger best are winning, especially on the GOP side. One observer put it this way: If 2008 was about "hope," then 2010 might be about “fear" -- with Republicans running on fear of Obama/Dems, while Dems will be running on fear of returning to Bush/GOP policies.

*** Why McCain won and Murkowski is in trouble: In fact, this explains why someone like John McCain cruised to victory last night in Arizona and Murkowski didn’t. McCain -- though it meant reversing himself on some key issues like immigration -- picked up the pitchfork and channeled the growing anger on the right. Murkowski, on the other hand, touted her record and what she had done for Alaska. Indeed, how McCain ran his campaign could very well be a model for Democrats or any troubled incumbent in November: go negative and peel the paint off of your opponent. Incumbents who run on what they’ve done in D.C. and for their constituents back home are wasting their time and money. Or as one observer put it to us: "Anyone running positive TV ads right now is better off giving that money to charity." Positive doesn't work until you've completely dismantled your opponent (see: Hayworth, J.D.).

*** The Tea Party wins again? If Miller ends up beating Murkowski -- and we probably won’t know the outcome for more than a week from now, with absentee ballots still to be counted -- the senator would become the seventh incumbent to lose this cycle, joining Bob Bennett in UT, Alan Mollohan in WV, Arlen Specter in PA, Parker Griffith in AL, Bob Inglis in SC, and Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick in MI. But more importantly, Miller would become the fifth Tea Party insurgent to win a GOP Senate primary, following Mike Lee in UT, Rand Paul in KY, Sharron Angle in NV, and Ken Buck in CO. (A Dem operative emails First Read that Murkowski would be the seventh NRSC candidate, and second sitting member, to go down this cycle.) Perhaps one of the most underreported stories heading into November is what the U.S. Senate -- the world's greatest deliberative body -- would look like next year with these Tea Partiers as members. Bennett and Murkowski were known as Republicans who would cut deals. But what happens when you replace these folks with Lee or Miller? Then again, partisans on both the left and right want to blow up the Senate, so they very might get their wish.

*** Palin-ism vs. Stevens-ism, revisited: Yesterday, we explained that Murkowski was likely heading to victory because the Tea Party and Palin-ism don’t have as much pull in Alaska as in other states; Alaska, after all, has benefited so much from federal spending. Well, you can now scratch that. Check out what Miller told our affiliate in Anchorage last night: "Alaskans are prepared to enter a new era of politics -- an era of self-dependency." That is a full-fledged rejection of the "Uncle Ted Stevens" way of representing the state. Msnbc.com’s Vaughn Ververs (a one-time Alaska resident himself) reminds us that it didn’t help Murkowski that she was appointed to her Senate seat by her father. That’s obviously something that Alaskans still remember, and it looks like it came back to haunt her. Finally, for those making the point how Sarah Palin helped power Joe Miller, consider that the last GOP primary candidate Palin actually stumped for on the campaign trail -- Karen Handel in Georgia -- lost her run-off two weeks ago.

*** How Conventional Wisdom has been wrong in Florida… : With Florida's general-election field now set -- it's Scott (R) vs. Alex Sink (D) for governor, and Charlie Crist (I) vs. Kendrick Meek (D) vs. Marco Rubio (R) for Senate -- it's worth remembering how wrong Conventional Wisdom has been in the Sunshine State so far this year. Many thought Crist was a goner after making his indie bid for the Senate. Now? He has been leading the three-way race in many polls (for whatever they are worth this year!). Many thought Bill McCollum and Kendrick Meek were shoo-ins to win their party's nominations. Then came along Rick Scott and Jeff Greene, both of whom took the lead as of a few weeks ago. And just as soon as some polls showed McCollum ahead in the final days of the race, Scott ends up winning. Go figure.

*** … and how it could be wrong come November: Now Conventional Wisdom has now settled on two these two storylines: 1) that Dem nominee Sink -- because of the divisive McCollum-Scott primary -- has the short-term advantage in the gubernatorial contest, and 2) that Meek will take away Dem votes from Crist. But if the past has been any guide in Florida this year, beware of the Conventional Wisdom. We just don’t know how either race will play out. (There's even the Bud Chiles factor that some Republicans are clinging to. The son of the late Gov./Sen. Lawton, is on the ballot and because Crist is bringing more attention to indies, he could find traction if he gets the money.) But what we DO know is that the Democratic Governors Association will need to spend its money in Florida to counter Scott’s millions. That could very well mean less money for folks like Gov. Pat Quinn in IL and Dan Onorato in PA or any other Democrat running in states that aren't Florida, Colorado, or Ohio. So while Haley Barbour might not have wanted Scott, he's going to save money there, as well as in California.

*** 75 House races to watch: NM-2: The Democratic nominee is first-term incumbent and oil businessman Harry Teague. The GOP nominee is former Congressman Steve Pearce, who served three terms in Congress before unsuccessfully running for Senate in 2008. McCain won 50% of the vote in this district in ’08, while Bush got 58% here in ’04. As of June 30, Teague had $1.17 million in the bank, and Pearce had $1.02 million. Teague voted for the stimulus and cap-and-trade, but against health care. Cook rates the contest as a Toss-Up while Rothenberg rates it Lean Republican.

Countdown to Election Day 2010: 69 days

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