From msnbc.com's Tom Curry in Bellevue, Wash.:

Scott Brown, the regular guy from Wrentham, Mass. who last January suddenly was the first Republican since 1972 to be elected senator from Massachusetts, came to Bellevue, Washington Tuesday to raise money for Republican Senate candidate Dino Rossi.

Brown let it be known he still is a regular guy. "I came from driving my daughter to college and I think the last thing I did was I took out the trash. It's trash day back home," he told reporters before speaking to a gathering of 400 at the Westin Hotel.

Brown, a phenomenon for having won in a state that Barack Obama had carried only 14 months earlier with 62 percent of the vote, stopped on his way to California to appear at fundraisers for Republican candidates Carly Fiorina and Meg Whitman.

He said his message on his transcontinental trip was aimed not just at Republicans, but at all voters.

"Being a new guy in Washington, we need other new people who are going to look out for people's wallets and pocketbooks and focus on the debt and the spending and the taxation," Brown said.

Although Brown has been in the Senate since February, he still refers to the other 99 members of the Senate as "they."

"They are not talking; they are not working together to solve problems," he complained.

Brown said after he met Rossi, "I asked if I could help him. He didn't ask me." Rossi "cares about jobs; he has experience in that sector," Brown said.

The two men don't see eye-on-eye on the Chris Dodd-Barney Frank Wall Street reform bill that Brown voted for in July. (Brown was one of only three GOP senators to vote for the bill.)

With Rossi standing at his side, Brown said, "We're not going to agree on everything – I certainly hope not. He's from a different part of the country, different needs…. I am from Massachusetts – the number two financial services industry in the country."

Part of Rossi's criticism of the financial regulation bill was that it omitted reform of mortgage loan behemoths Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Brown asked, "Does that mean we do nothing? I felt that the rules and regulations needed to be upgraded… some of them hadn't been changed in 50 years."

Brown said the basic problem in the nation's capitol remains: "Absolutely no paying attention to the needs of average Americans." All that most Americans want, Brown said, is "take their kids out to a movie and then go out to dinner with their wives or husbands, pay their mortgage, pay for school -- and they're scared. They see the amount of debt that's been incurred." By debt he meant federal debt.

Democrats, he said, "don't want to have a true bipartisanship." He cited the $30 billion small bank lending bill which Rossi's Democratic opponent Sen. Patty Murray is pushing.

"If you let us be part of the amendment process and have one amendment" then he and other Republicans might be willing to allow the bill to move forward, Brown said. "It's very important if we're going to get this country moving again to work in a bipartisan manner to tackle these problems and Dino is going to be a great addition to that."

One attendee at the Rossi fundraiser was Republican National Committee member Fredi Simpson from Wenatchee, Wash., east of the Cascade Mountains," where we're extremely conservative." She said, "We're not going to get someone as conservative as we are to represent Massachusetts as a Republican. So Scott Brown was great."

She added, "Dino is very conservative. We're not concerned that Dino is going to be like a Scott Brown. I think Dino is between a Marco Rubio and Jim DeMint -- and Scott Brown."

Simpson acknowledged Murray's legislative skills, saying the three-term Democratic senator "had played the political chess game extremely well. She's done great things for the veterans; in Wenatchee, she helped put in a veterans clinic."

But, she said, the problem for Murray "is that people are starting to wake up."

From msnbc.com's Vaughn Ververs:

Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski has conceded in her primary battle against unknown-challenger Joe Miller in the Alaska GOP primary after a full day of absentee vote counting that left her just 199 votes closer to victory than she was a week ago.

Saying that she can no longer see "a scenario where the primary will turn out in my favor," Murkowski threw in the towel on a re-election bid that she has trailed in by 1,668 votes since the primary on August 24. The counting of absentee and questionable ballots resumed Tuesday and although Murkowski at one point reduced her deficit to 1,210, the day ended with her behind by 1,630 votes.

While the primary between Miller and Murkowski revolved around some uniquely Alaskan dynamics, the outcome further advances the national midterm picture as well. Miller will become the fifth bona fide tea party-backed Republican Senate nominee this year, joining: Rand Paul in Kentucky, Sharon Angle in Nevada, Ken Buck in Colorado and Mike Lee in Utah.

Two of those candidates defeated incumbent Republican senators (Murkowski and Utah's Bob Bennett). The other three defeated GOP establishment-backed candidates in the primaries. If you're looking for the tea party's impact on this election, the senate races this fall will be the major barometer of its success.

The White House has released excerpts of President Obama's Oval Office address on the end of combat operations in Iraq. Some examples:

Tonight, I am announcing that the American combat mission in Iraq has ended. Operation Iraqi Freedom is over, and the Iraqi people now have lead responsibility for the security of their country. This was my pledge to the American people as a candidate for this office. Last February, I announced a plan that would bring our combat brigades out of Iraq, while redoubling our efforts to strengthen Iraq's Security Forces and support its government and people. That is what we have done. We have removed nearly 100,000 U.S. troops from Iraq. We have closed or transferred hundreds of bases to the Iraqis. And we have moved millions of pieces of equipment out of Iraq.

[snip]

Ending this war is not only in Iraq's interest - it is in our own. The United States has paid a huge price to put the future of Iraq in the hands of its people. We have sent our young men and women to make enormous sacrifices in Iraq, and spent vast resources abroad at a time of tight budgets at home. We have persevered because of a belief we share with the Iraqi people - a belief that out of the ashes of war, a new beginning could be born in this cradle of civilization. Through this remarkable chapter in the history of the United States and Iraq, we have met our responsibility. Now, it is time to turn the page.

Harry Reid and Joe Sestak both have ads out using their opponents' own words against them; Crossroads GPS has a new ad tying Jack Conway to President Obama's health care plan; and in Texas, Democratic gubernatorial nominee Bill White says Gov. Rick Perry is partying with too many lobbyists.

KY SEN, anti-Conway (Crossroads GPS) "Bad Sign"
8/30
ANNCR: Obamacare is the wrong way for Kentucky. And Jack Conway is going the wrong way too. Obama care means $525 billion in job-killing taxes. It means higher insurance premiums. 500 billion dollars cut from Medicare. Reduced benefits for 113,000 Kentucky seniors. And intrusive big government mandates. It's the wrong way, Conway.

MO SEN, Carnahan, "Mug"
8/30
CARNAHAN: "I'm Robin Carnahan. And I approve this message." ANNCR: "Congressman Roy Blunt (R-07). He got caught trying to insert a secret deal for tobacco giant Phillip Morris into a bill just days after company executives gave him over $30,000. He voted to weaken the rules on lobbyist gifts. Rode corporate jets provided by a defense contractor convicted of bribery. And he's taken more money from lobbyists than any member of Congress. Roy Blunt. He's the very worst of Washington"

NV SEN, Reid, "Spoiled"
8/30
VEGAS RESIDENT DEBRA HARDING: "I got up every day looking for a job. The unemployment benefits helped me get through." ANNCR: "(ex-Assemb.) Sharron Angle (R) opposes extending unemployment benefits." ANGLE: "No, I wouldn't have voted for unemployment extensions." ANNCR: "She says laid off workers are spoiled." ANGLE: "We really have spoiled our citizenry. ... "They want to be dependent on the government." HARDING: "I'm not spoiled, and I don't want to be dependent on anybody. If Sharron Angle doesn't get that, she should be out of work, not people like me." REID: "I'm Harry Reid, and I approve this message"

NH SEN, anti-Hodes, (Chamber of Commerce)
8/31
ANNCR: "Live free or die, the motto New Hampshire proudly lives by. Paul Hodes' motto? Tax, borrow or spend, with your money. Hodes voted for a government takeover of health care, Hodes voted for a job killing energy tax. Hodes' out of control spending helped push America's debt to 13 trillion dollars. Call Paul Hodes and tell him more taxing, borrowing and spending is the problem, not the solution. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is responsible for the content of this advertising"

PA SEN, Sestak, "Zero"
8/30
SESTAK: "I'm Joe Sestak and I authorize this message." ANNCR: "Do you think corporations pay their fair share? Pat Toomey thinks corporations shouldn't pay any taxes." TOOMEY: "Let's not tax corporations. I think the solution is to eliminate corporate taxes altogether." ANNCR: "The middle class is struggling. But Toomey thinks it's Oil Companies and Wall Street banks who should pay no taxes - Zero. No wonder Toomey's been called Wall Street's Congressman." TOOMEY: "The solution is to eliminate corporate taxes altogether." ANNCR: "Pat Toomey -- He's for them. Not for us"

WI SEN, Feingold, "Looks Out for Us"
8/30
IRIS: "When the economy collapsed, Senator Feingold helped pass tax cuts." LINDA: "For 95% of Wisconsin families." JOHN: "Russ also fought for tax credits for small businesses." DAN: "And relief from rising health care costs." ANNE: "But Ron Johnson opposed every one of those tax breaks." LAVONNE: "Johnson thinks that the wealthiest Americans, millionaires like him, ought to have their taxes lowered." MECHELLE: "We can't afford that kind of thinking again." JOHN: "We need someone like Russ, who looks out for us." FEINGOLD: "I'm Russ Feingold and I approve this message because you deserve a senator who's on your side"

TX GOV, White, "Rick Perry's Lobbyist Ball"
8/30
WHITE: "You want to know who pulls the strings in (Gov.) Rick Perry's (R) Texas? Check out the big fundraiser on Thursday in Austin at the fanciest hotel in town. They're 30 hosts, 29 of the 30 are registered lobbyists. Many used to work on Perry's staff. If you want state government to work for you, for all the people, people of both political parties, join our campaign. Help us move Texas forward. I'm in it for Texas"

GA GOV, anti-Barnes (RGA) "Iron Fist"
8/30
ANNCR: "One man ruled with an iron fist, giving us laws and politics we did not want and did not support. When challenged, he was thin-skinned and arrogant, putting the blame on others. Think we're talking about Barack Obama? We're not. We're talking about former Governor Roy Barnes. Roy Barnes ruled Georgia for four years and the results were disastrous. Can Georgia really afford more of the same?"

DC, anti-Washington Teachers' Union/Michelle Rhee Center for Union Facts, "Thanks Teachers Union"
8/27
ANNCR: What do you love about the DC Teachers' Union? WOMAN: I think it's great that they put politics above my child's education. BOY: It's cool how the union makes it almost impossible for schools to fire bad teachers. TEACHER: It's impressive how my dues money supports politicians I don't even like. ANNCR: DC Teachers' Union has failed our kids. Played politics. And now is threatening to file a lawsuit to block recent progress. Find out more at TeachersUnionExposed.com/DC. TEACHER: Thanks, Teachers' Unions.

From NBC's Doug Adams
They are counting votes in Alaska today. The Elections Divisions is updating results all day, and as of 5:00 pm ET, Joe Miller's lead over incumbent Lisa Murkowski had narrowed slightly.

Miller began the day with a 1,668-vote lead. But the latest results show the margin now down to 1,460 votes.

A total of about 5,300 votes have been added to the totals today, with more to come.

After today, there will be two more days of counting -- on Friday Sept. 3 and Wednesday Sept. 8, when a final count will be released. Results are to be certified on Sept. 17.

From NBC's Mark Murray
Minnesota Gov. -- and potential presidential candidate -- Tim Pawlenty (R) today signed an executive order prohibiting his state from requesting new grants tied to the new health-care law. The AP adds, "The governor said he won't pull grant applications that have already been submitted or turn down federal cash in categories that fit with the direction that Minnesota has taken in health care policy."

Pawlenty is leaving office at the end of the year, and his successor -- either Democrat Mark Dayton or Republican Tom Emmer -- could overturn the executive order. (Dayton would most likely overturn it, while Emmer wouldn't.)

Democrats have blasted Pawlenty's executive order as a political move that's tied to his presidential ambitions. “After rejecting $7.8 billion dollars for his cash-strapped state where taxpayers are struggling to make ends meet and denying health care to a quarter million of his fellow Minnesotans, Tim Pawlenty’s executive order to state employees might as well have read ‘You will henceforth work for my presidential ambitions instead of the people of Minnesota,'" said DNC spokesman Hari Sevugan.

A Pawlenty adviser responded that the executive order is consistent with the governor's free-market principles.

Nevertheless, you can bet that Pawlenty -- if he does run for president -- will want 2011 to be about health care, in order to draw the comparison's between the health-care law and what likely GOP front-runner Mitt Romney signed into law in Massachusetts.

Interestingly, DNC chairman Tim Kaine is holding a previously planned press conference in Minnesota tomorrow with Dayton, where you can bet the executive order is addressed.

As President Obama prepares to address the nation on the wars on Iraq and Afghanistan tonight, two bloggers offered vastly different interpretations of the still-rising death toll in Afghanistan so far, and which leader's handling of the war -- George W. Bush's or Obama's -- is to blame.

Linking to a Washington Post article citing 22 American deaths in Afghanistan over the past five days, AMERICAblog's liberal writer Joe Sudbay wrote that responsibility begins with the president who started the war and who, in his mind, did not set enough groundwork to prevent a situation like the present one.

This is Obama's problem now, obviously. But, history and the American people should never forgive Bush for letting the situation in Afghanistan get so out of control... Seriously, back in October of 2001, when it seemed that most Americans were supportive of the war in Afghanistan, could you ever have imagined that we'd be seeing 'record-high death tolls' in the summer of 2010?

Conservative blogger Dave Poff at Red State attributed the rising death toll to what he called Obama's indeciciveness in the region.

In 86 months the total number of casualties in Afghanistan was 630 under the Bush command. Under Obama’s weak, waffling, hand-wringing and navel-gazing command, in just 19 months, the US casualty count as of August 30, 2010 now surpasses Bush’s numbers, sitting now at a total of 632…and counting. How can this be?

We’ve had 4,763 strategy reviews. We’ve made kissy-face with our enemies. We’ve announced to them that we have a date-certain withdrawal plan if only they could just quiet themselves and wait us out. We’ve changed leadership on the ground, modified the ROE, incorporated the Rahm Emanuel-style approach to winning friends and influencing people there, and we’ve even begun indirect negotiations with our enemy to help facilitate their return to power once we tuck tail and run.

The AP writes:

A Republican candidate for Wisconsin governor has begun running ads in which he dons boxing gloves and vows to "go the distance" against the likely Democratic nominee, who was viciously beaten outside a fairground last year and left with serious injuries.

Scott Walker's campaign said Tuesday that it didn't intend to make reference to the August 2009 attack outside the Wisconsin State Fair that left Tom Barrett, Milwaukee's mayor, with injuries to his head, mouth, face and hand. Barrett tried to help a screaming woman struggling to protect her 1-year-old granddaughter from being taken by her drunk, belligerent father.

The attacker, who was sentenced in July to 12 years in prison, beat Barrett with a metal object. The mayor has had three surgeries on his hand, which doctors say may never fully recover.

Here's the TV ad:

It's a fascinating dilemma for Florida Democrats -- do you vote for your party's nominee, Kendrick Meek, or independent Charlie Crist?

One argument we've heard is that because Meek has less money and a lower name ID, and because Crist has a stronger pull with independents and has led in the most recent polls, voting for Crist is the safest way keep Marco Rubio (R) from winning the three-way Senate contest.

But Steve Schale, who ran the Florida campaign for Obama-Biden in '08, thinks just the opposite:

[F]or Crist, who after 20 years of being a GOP insider, his only path to victory is to find a way to be Democratic enough to win enough Democrats, Republican enough to win enough Republicans, and to do that in a way where he doesn't anger Independents. Not exactly the easiest thing to do, when Democrats now have a plausible alternative in Meek and Republicans in Rubio. If Greene had won, it might be a different story.

Democrats who support Crist keep saying to me, "well, we just need Dems to vote for Crist," but that just isn't going to happen in the margins he needs to win.

Today, Rubio has the clearest path to victory, but once Democrats figure out that Meek is their only option, his path will get much more clear as well.

From NBC's Mark Murray
In another example of how Republicans continually drive -- and dominate -- the political narrative in Washington, the current discussion in advance of tonight's Oval Office address on Iraq is whether President Obama should acknowledge that George W. Bush's troop surge worked.

Here's John Boehner in remarks he'll deliver later today: “Some leaders who opposed, criticized, and fought tooth-and-nail to stop the surge strategy now proudly claim credit for the results… [T]oday, we mark not the defeat those voices anticipated, but progress.”

And here's John McCain in a Wall Street Journal op-ed: "Though most Democrats still cannot bear to admit it, the war in Iraq is ending successfully because the surge worked... It would be nice if President Obama could finally find it in himself to give his predecessor the credit he deserves."

What's striking, though, is how this argument focuses only on what happened from 2007 to 2009, not what happened from 2002 to 2006. As Politics Daily's Jill Lawrence argues, "The issue isn't who supported or opposed the surge. It's who supported or opposed the war in the first place." (Both Boehner and McCain voted to authorize the war against Iraq.)

Lawrence adds, "There are also, of course, the huge issues raised by the way we ran this war once we were in it: the dearth of planning and regional awareness, the massive level of incompetence... Home-schooled 20-somethings with no accounting background chosen to manage Iraq's $13-billion budget. A 24-year-old with no finance experience tasked with re-opening Iraq's stock exchange. Incompetents worrying about smoking prevention while Baghdad burned. Experts pushed out in favor of people whose main qualifications were that they opposed abortion and had voted for Bush. Please, never again."

How the Iraq war -- at least in American politics -- went from “shock and awe” to barely a whimper… Obama to deliver Oval Office address at 8:00 pm ET marking the end of combat operations in Iraq… Why the administration isn’t declaring victory or “mission accomplished”… In his speech, Obama will also discuss Afghanistan and the need to refocus U.S. financial resources at home… And he’ll mention George W. Bush by name, per latest draft… Obama meets with U.S. soldiers at Fort Bliss, TX before tonight’s speech, while Biden remains in Iraq… Boehner and McConnell respond that the surge worked… Looking at past Oval Office speeches… Caveat emptor on the Gallup poll everyone is talking about… Profiling AZ-5… And Joe Sestak up with his first general-election TV ad.

From Mark Murray and Ali Weinberg
*** From ‘shock and awe’ to a whimper: From 2003 to 2008, the Iraq war unquestionably drove American politics. It was a central issue in the 2004 presidential election; it helped Democrats recapture control of Congress in 2006; and it catapulted Barack Obama to win the Democratic presidential nomination. But as now-President Obama officially marks the end of combat operations in Iraq in an Oval Office address at 8:00 pm ET, it’s striking how it has mostly disappeared as a political issue. “The Iraq war began with shock and awe, and ends with barely a whimper,” says Brian Katulis, a senior fellow on national security policy at the left-leaning Center for American Progress. Much of this is due to the U.S. economy taking center stage since Sept. 15, 2008. But it's also due to the escalation in Afghanistan, as well as the Obama administration's reluctance to declare victory in Iraq.

*** No guarantee of smooth sailing: As we’ve said before, there’s a reason why the administration won’t declare victory: because 50,000 U.S. troops still remain in Iraq, because there’s ongoing violence there, and because Iraq hasn't been able to form a government. “What you've seen is lower and lower levels of violence. The Iraqi security forces are functioning at least as well -- if not better -- than any of us had anticipated,” the president told NBC’s Brian Williams on Sunday. “That doesn't mean that it's going be smooth sailing from here on out. That's why we've still got a training operation there. That's why we're going continue to conduct joint counterterrorism operations… But we're confident that that will get done. And that we're going be a long term partner within Iraq. But we're not going to be operating in the same combat role that we have in the past.”

*** Previewing the speech: NBC’s Savannah Guthrie reports that in Obama’s remarks tonight, he’ll discuss Iraq, the service by U.S. troops, the war in Afghanistan, and the need to refocus U.S. financial resources at home. Speechwriters were working on the address well past midnight, Guthrie adds, and the latest draft mentions George W. Bush by name. In an interview on “TODAY,” White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs stressed that the U.S. role in Iraq is now to assist Iraqis. “They are in charge of their future,” he said. “They will write their history from this point on.” Before Obama’s primetime speech tonight, he travels to Fort Bliss, TX, where he will meet with troops around 1:10 pm ET before heading back to Washington. Yesterday, the president met with wounded soldiers at Walter Reed. Vice President Biden, meanwhile, remains in Iraq.

*** The GOP’s response -- the surge worked: Obama, however, isn’t the only U.S. politician talking about Iraq today. In a speech he’s delivering before the American Legion Convention in Milwaukee, WI at 2:10 pm ET, House Minority Leader John Boehner will credit the success in Iraq to Bush’s troop surge. “When Gen. Petraeus embarked on the surge strategy in Jan. 2007, it was widely viewed as our last chance to save Iraq from spiraling into an irreversible descent toward chaos,” Boehner will say, according to excerpts his office has released. “Some leaders who opposed, criticized, and fought tooth-and-nail to stop the surge strategy now proudly claim credit for the results… [T]oday, we mark not the defeat those voices anticipated, but progress.” Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell will say something similar in Kentucky today. “Thankfully, we can say today that our troops, the surge, and the Petraeus plan all succeeded where many in Washington thought they would fail.”

*** Gibbs’ response: When NBC’s Matt Lauer asked Gibbs about this GOP critique on “TODAY” this morning, he responded -- as he did during the presidential campaign in 2008 -- that adding more U.S. troops in Iraq wasn’t the only solution. Iraq, Gibbs said, needed a diplomatic and political surge, too.

*** Previous Oval Office speeches: Tonight’s Oval Office address will be Obama’s second as president (his first, on the Gulf oil spill, took place on June 15). Here are some of the famous Oval Office speeches, per NBC’s Marcie Rickun: JFK’s report to the American people on the Soviet arms build-up in Cuba (1962), JFK’s speech on civil rights (1963), LBJ’s address on the U.S. riots (1967), LBJ’s announcement he wasn’t seek re-election (1968), Nixon’s announcement of his resignation (1974), Ford’s statement announcing Nixon’s pardon (1974), Carter’s energy speech (1977), Carter’s “malaise” speech (1979), Reagan’s speech on the Challenger tragedy (1986), Reagan’s remarks on Iran Contra (1987), Reagan’s farewell speech (1989), George H.W. Bush’s announcement of military action in the Persian Gulf (1991), Clinton’s budget speech (1993), Clinton’s Somalia address (1993), Clinton’s remarks on Haiti (1994), Clinton’s speech on bombing Sudan and Afghanistan (1998), George W. Bush’s Sept. 11 address (2001), George W. Bush’s announcement of the Iraq war’s start (2003), and George W. Bush’s address on Iraq and the war on terror (2007).

*** Caveat emptor: Many are touting the new Gallup poll showing Republicans with a 10-point lead in the generic ballot among registered voters -- the largest GOP lead in the history of the poll. But we said it last month when Gallup showed Dems with the generic-ballot edge, and we’ll say it again now: Live by the Gallup daily tracking, die by the Gallup daily tracking.

*** 75 House races to watch: AZ-5: The Democratic nominee is second-term Rep. Harry Mitchell, who was first elected in 2006. The GOP nominee is Maricopa County Treasurer David Schweikert. In 2008, McCain won 51% in this district, while Bush won 54% in ’04. As of Aug. 24, Mitchell had $1.5 million in the bank, compared with nearly $700,000 for Schweikert. Mitchell voted no on the stimulus and cap-and-trade, but yes on health care. Both Cook and Rothenberg rate the contest as Lean Democratic.

*** More midterm news: In Alaska, Politico reports that Democrats are sticking with their Senate nominee, Sitka Mayor Scott McAdams… In Minnesota, a new Minnesota Public Radio/Humphrey Institute poll shows Mark Dayton (D) and Tom Emmer (R) tied at 34% among likely voters in the state’s gubernatorial contest… In Missouri’s Senate race, Robin Carnahan’s (D) campaign is up with a new TV ad hitting Roy Blunt (R)… And in Pennsylvania, Joe Sestak (D) is up with his first TV ad of the general election, hitting Pat Toomey (R) on his call to eliminate all corporate taxes.

Countdown to DC, MD. MA, NH, NY, RI, and WI primaries: 14 days
Countdown to HI primaries: 18 days
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 63 days

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The Washington Post front-pages the risks for Obama regarding Iraq. “President Obama is promoting the decision to end the U.S. combat mission in Iraq on Tuesday as a fulfillment of his campaign promise to draw the war to a close. But some of the president's detractors are using the same moment to question the wisdom of doing so - noting that Iraq is still afflicted with violence and has yet to form a government.”

USA Today: “President Obama heads to Fort Bliss in Texas today to thank troops for their service before addressing the nation from the Oval Office tonight about the end of combat operations in Iraq… Today's task: trying to convince a skeptical public that a war he didn't start and didn't support ended as well as it could have on his watch. A recent USA TODAY Poll found that 60% of Americans do not believe the situation in Iraq warranted sending troops into battle.”

More: “In marking the transition from combat to a role supporting the Iraqis, Obama will not make the ‘mission accomplished’ declaration that was on a banner hanging near President George W. Bush when Bush declared that major combat operations were over in Iraq as he spoke aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln in 2003. ‘You won't hear those words coming from us,’ White House press secretary Robert Gibbs said Monday. Instead, in the second Oval Office address of his presidency — the first was June 15 on the BP oil spill — Obama will discuss ‘what does this drawdown now mean for our national security.’”

The New York Times says that Obama “will still strike a promises-kept theme, aides said, even as he seeks to reconcile his opposition to the Iraq war — and his opposition to the so-called troop surge, which Republicans and many military officials credit for the decrease in violence in Iraq — with his role as a wartime commander in chief seeking to credit his troops with carrying out a difficult mission. The president, his aides said, will seek to honor the American soldiers who served in Iraq.”

The BBC: “Iraq's prime minister has said the country is ‘independent’ as the US formally ends combat operations. Nouri Maliki said the country's security forces would now deal with all threats, domestic or other… ‘Iraq today is sovereign and independent,’ Mr Maliki told Iraqis in a televised address.”

“We’re going to be just fine. They’re going to be just fine,’’ Vice President Biden said in Iraq yesterday, per the Washington Post.

In Afghanistan, meanwhile: “Five U.S. troops were killed by roadside bombs and insurgent fire in southern and eastern Afghanistan on Tuesday, the latest casualties in a particularly bloody spell that has left 12 service members dead in two days, and 19 since Saturday.”

Per NBC’s Athena Jones, Obama will host a series of bilateral meetings on Wednesday with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, Palestinian Authority President Abbas, Egyptian President Mubarak, and Jordan's King Abdullah. Obama will likely deliver a statement on the Middle East peace process some time late on Wednesday afternoon.

The New York Times writes up Obama’s remarks on the economy yesterday. “He chided Senate Republicans for engaging in ‘pure partisan politics’ by holding up a jobs bill that would offer tax breaks to small businesses and ease credit with a $30 billion initiative to channel loans through community banks. ‘I ask Senate Republicans to drop the blockade,’ Mr. Obama said. The president also said he and his team were ‘hard at work in identifying additional measures,’ including extending tax cuts for the middle class that are scheduled to expire this year, increasing government investment in clean energy and rebuilding more infrastructure.”

“Republicans lead by 51% to 41% among registered voters in Gallup weekly tracking of 2010 congressional voting preferences,” Gallup reports. “The 10-percentage-point lead is the GOP's largest so far this year and is its largest in Gallup's history of tracking the midterm generic ballot for Congress.”

CONNECTICUT: “Two weeks to the day after a former wrestler died at the age of 29, another one of GOP Senate nominee Linda McMahon's former stars [Gertrude ‘Luna’ Vachon] -- who the company acknowledges it sent to rehab for substance abuse last year -- was found dead Friday,” the Danbury News Times writes.

ILLINOIS: “Senate candidate Alexi Giannoulias plans to challenge the budget record of the Republican Party, including rival candidate Mark Kirk,” the AP writes. “The Chicago Democrat is scheduled to deliver a speech Tuesday where he'll blast Republicans for overspending during the last Bush administration and leaving the country with a huge deficit.”

NEVADA: “Some of the most powerful figures in Northern Nevada are hosting a fundraiser for GOP gubernatorial hopeful Brian Sandoval at some private suites in the Eldorado,” the Las Vegas Sun’s Ralston reports.

TEXAS: Democratic gubernatorial nominee Bill White hits Gov. Rick Perry for hosting a fundaiser hosted mostly by registered lobbyists (hat tip: Hotline).

From Doug Adams
Here's the latest news on the still-too-close-to-call Alaska GOP Senate primary between incumbent Sen. Lisa Murkowski and challenger Joe Miller. The bottom line is we should have a MUCH clearer picture about the outcome in the next 48 hours.

Here are the numbers:
Currently, Miller leads Murkowski by 1,668 votes, out of more than 92,000 cast.

There are 23,472 ballots still to be counted, and the majority of them (13,740) are absentees. Reportedly, about 16,000 absentee ballots were requested, so it's conceivable another 2,300 ballots could arrive, but it's probably much much lower. The state allows 15 days after the election for absentees to arrive, as long as they are postmarked by Election Day.

Another 9,069 are "questioned ballots" -- most often the issue is the voter cast the ballot in a precinct other than where they live. A high percentage of questioned ballots get thrown out generally.

There are also 663 "early" votes that need to be counted.

Tomorrow, a large chunk of the ballots will be counted. The Alaska Division of Elections will count all the early votes, all the absentee ballots received to date, and all the questioned ballots that have been resolved. Bottom line: A good 15,000 or more votes will be counted.

On Sept. 3, they will do another count of resolved "question" ballots, and late absentees.

On Sept. 8, they will have the final count of remaining ballots.

Statisticians say that Republicans made up about 75% of the voters last week, so if that percentage holds up, Murkowski would need the vote of roughly 55% to make up her deficit.

In Kentucky, Jack Conway's Senate campaign is out with its first (expletive-free) ad; Missouri Rep. Roy Blunt is hit with yet another ad highlighting his vote in favor of the bailout; and in Georgia's gubernatorial race, former governor Roy Barnes calls for a fresh start, neglecting to mention that he's a former governor.

KY SEN, Conway, "Darn Good"
8/29
COP #1: "Jack Conway is the chief law enforcement officer in Kentucky and a darn good one." COP #2: "He's been very tough on crime." COP #3: "Jack was part of the biggest drug bust in Kentucky history. COP #2: "Very instrumental in protecting the children of Kentucky." COP #4: "Jack Conway's locked up people who abused the elderly." COP #2: "He's got an A rating with the NRA." COP #5: "We need a senator who will treat criminals like criminals." COP #1: "We're backing Jack Conway." COP #5: "Kentucky sheriffs and police are endorsing Jack Conway." COP #1: "Jack Conway is the man for the job for Senate." CONWAY: "I'm Jack Conway, and I'm proud to approve this message"

MO SEN, anti-Blunt (DSCC), "Bailout"
8/28
ANNCR: "Roy Blunt's Washington. A culture of corruption and special intersts. Where Missouri gets left behind. And when our economy collapsed, Washington is where Roy Blunt took the lead. And voted for the $700 billion Wall Street bailout. Roy Blunt has taken over $1.6 million in contributions from Wall Street. And Washington is where Roy Blunt was named one of Congress' most corrupt politicians. Roy Blunt. He isn't just in Washington. He is Washington. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is responsible for the content of this advertising"

NV SEN, anti-Reid (Family Research Council Action PAC) "A New Battle: Stop Harry Reid"
8/26
ANNCR: "They fought in trenches. Stormed beaches. Cut through sweltering jungles. Marched over burning deserts. Our military has protected our soil, seas and skies. But today they're drawn into a new battle. Harry Reid and homosexual activists are attempting to advance their political agenda. By overturning Don't Ask, Don't Tell. Our military is for protection, not politics. Stop Harry Reid. Family Research Council Action PAC is responsible for the content of this advertising"

NC SEN, Burr, "Main Street"
8/27
ANNCR: "He's down home North Carolina. Home nearly every weekend, listening, working for us. Been named a hero for taxpayers. You see, Richard Burr is willing to cut spending, while others spend more. Believes growing the economy and creating jobs starts with limiting government, supporting hard working people. He's tight with our tax dollars. Heck, that's just common-sense." BURR: "That's the North Carolina way. I'm Richard Burr and I approve this message because together, we can change tomorrow"

GA GOV, Barnes, "Fresh Start"
8/27
ANNCR: "It's time for a fresh start in Georgia. But not with Nathan Deal, whose ethics are under investigation. We can't afford a governor who might spend months in court trying to save himself rather than working every day to save Georgia. Our choice is between the proven experience and competence of Roy Barnes or ethical questions about Nathan Deal. Can we afford to gamble? Nathan Deal. Just more of the same"

GA GOV, Barnes, "Padlock"
8/27
ANNCR: "Congressman Deal is hiding something. We think it's in his income tax records. But they're locked up tight. Congressman Deal. Just more of the same old ethics"

NM GOV, Martinez, "Jet"
8/26
ANNCR: "(LG) Diane Denish (D). Rules for us are below her. Denish told schools to cut energy use 10 percent. But used the state's luxury jet as an air taxi for her family and friends. Wasting $367,000 in tax money. And breaking state regulations 39 times. Claimed state rules don't Richardson and Denish. Schools cut their budgets while Diane Denish wasted tax money flying a luxury jet. Diane Denish. Above the rules. More of the same"

OH GOV, "Nilda,"
8/27
NILDA: "My husband worked at Invacare for nearly 22 years and his job was eliminated in 2006. It was devastating; it was completely devastating. John Kasich sat on Invacare's board as a director and signed off jobs being outsourced and sent to China and Mexico. I believe they sent those jobs overseas so they can make more profit. I don't think John Kasich values hard-working people. I don't think we can trust John Kasich as governor"

OH GOV, "Truth,"
8/27
ANNCR: "John Kasich's Washington friends don't want you to know the real record on trade. Ted Strickland voted against NAFTA and against the special trade deal for China. John Kasich voted for them and for more than 20 trade deals that hurt Ohio workers. Kasich's trade deals cost Ohio thousands of jobs -- 49,000 jos to Mexico, 91,000 to China. Kasich and Wall Street made millions outsourcing while Ohio lost jobs." KASICH: "I think that free trade is the way to go." ANNCR: "We just can't trust Kasich as governor"

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is up with its first independent-expenditure TV ad of the cycle, and the target is former "Real World" star Sean Duffy (R) in WI-7.

The ad reveals two things: 1) Dems see blasting Republicans on Social Security as their bread-and-butter play, and 2) they obviously see -- as we do -- WI-7 (the seat retiring Democratic Rep. David Obey is vacating) as one of the swing districts in November.*** UPDATE *** The National Republican Congressional Committee responds, “This false and deliberately misleading ad is nothing more than a desperate attempt to distract Wisconsin families from the fact that Washington Democrats have mismanaged our economy from day one. As Sean Duffy has stated on several occasions, he is 100% committed to protecting Social Security. In fact, Julie Lassa is the only candidate in this race that Wisconsin seniors need to fear as she has endorsed the Democrats’ efforts to slash hundreds of billions of dollars from Medicare to pay for their government takeover of healthcare.”

The DCCC is basing Duffy's support of privatizing Social Security on his support for GOP. Paul Ryan's "roadmap," which advocates the privatization of Social Security and Medicare.

Liberal and conservative blogs gave their thoughts on Saturday's dueling rallies: Glenn Beck's "Restoring America's Honor" at the Lincoln Memorial and Rev. Al Sharpton's celebration of the 47th anniversary of Dr. Martin Luther King Jr's "I Have a Dream" speech.

One point resonated particularly loudly in the liberal blogosphere: that while Beck told rally attendants that "America today begins to turn back to God," his own religion, Mormonism, is viewed in many Christian communities with skepticism at the least and downright opposition at the most.

Liberal blogger Steve Benen linked to reports from several Christian news outlets and figures that condemn Beck's religion while supporting his political views.

Tea Partiers and related right-wing activists have often been split, just below the surface, between competing factions -- largely secular libertarians who focus on fiscal issues and the scope of government vs. religious-right-style theocrats who are still inclined to fight a culture war. Saturday's gathering seemed to suggest the latter contingent might have the edge.

But then there's the other fissure -- theocrats comfortable with a Mormon's leadership role in their so-called 'movement,' and theocrats who appreciate Beck's madness, but not his LDS membership.

Think Progress joined the liberal blogs pointing out Beck's religion, writing of his turning the supposedly apolitical event into "a stinging political missive against Obama," after Beck, appearing on Fox News the day after the rally, said that Obama's version of Christianity is "a perversion of the gospel of Jesus Christ as most Christians know it."

Ironically, while Beck is casting stones to undermine Obama’s faith, his own faith is one that many Christians view as a 'perversion of the gospel of Jesus Christ.' Beck, a converted Mormon who had been raised in a Catholic home, has been attacked by many evangelicals who say he is not a Christian 'because of his Mormon beliefs.

Meanwhile, conservative bloggers like Red State's Dave Poff commented on what other people had to say about the rally.

It should be lost on NO one how incredibly diverse and divisive the news coverage of events in DC on 8/28 has been; the white guys are talking about God and Country while the black guys are threatening to beat them up over it as they express their intolerance for insufficient levels of freebies and shout out their demands for even more nannyism from the State. And, of course, those who dare disagree with them are racists and bigots.

He also compared the number of times God was invoked at both rallies.

The fact that Sharpton, like King, is a Reverand would lead most of us to expect invocations of God and our greater purpose in pursuing Him in our daily lives and our struggle for equality. King mentioned God four times in his I have a Dream speech, and Beck mentioned God twice in the first 5 minutes of his own 'Restoring Honor' speech at the Lincoln Memorial…a few steps and 47 years away. Sharpton mentioned God not once in his own speech, choosing instead to refer to 'us' and 'them' and 'we' and 'they' on multiple occasions while simultaneously calling for unity.

Hot Air's Allahpundit noticed a similarity between how President Obama handled a question from NBC's Brian Williams on his impression of Beck's rally and Obama's infamous "guns and religion" remark from 2008.

Obama's response to the rally question: "Given all those anxieties — and given the fact that, you know, in none of these situations are you going to be fix things overnight. It’s not surprising that somebody like a Mr. Beck is able to stir up a certain portion of the country."

Isn’t this his infamous bitter/clinger theory of small-town values voters dressed up in slightly more politic language?

Allahpundit also wrote that Obama seemed to have mischaracterized the rally.

He says he didn’t watch the rally so he may be under the impression that it was a three-hour 'the socialists are coming!' Obama bash-fest. Not so; Weigel is closer to the mark in describing it as 'the world’s largest megachurch.' I don’t know what The One was thinking, but dismissing what ended up being a big revival meeting as a byproduct of economic anxiety is not the way to ingratiate oneself with religious voters.

From NBC's Ali Weinberg
After his 10-day vacation and stop yesterday in New Orleans, President Obama kicked off his first day back at the White House with a call for Senate Republicans to "drop the blockade" on passing a bill intended to increase lending and to reduce capital gains taxes for small businesses.

The bill has floundered in the Senate since a Republican filibuster in late July, due to objections over a $30 billion government-funded lending pool -- a part of the bill that the White House proposed to Congress in early May.

"This bill has been held up by a partisan minority that won't even allow it to go to a vote," Obama said.

He added that passing the bill should be Congress's "first order of business" when it returns from recess in September, adding that he would be addressing the proposals in the bill in the days and weeks to come.

"Just this morning, a story showed that small businesses have put hiring and expanding on hold while waiting for the Senate to act on this bill," Obama said, likely referring to a USA Today article on businesses in holding patterns. "Simply put, holding this bill hostage is directly detrimental to our economic growth."

Republicans pre-butted the president's speech, as the Republican National Committee held a conference call with Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) and former Congressional Budget Office director Douglas Holtz-Eakin, who assailed the Obama administration and Congress for implementing what they called failed economic policies.

While he did not directly refer to the small business bill, Ryan criticized what he called a "fiscal explosion," citing programs like the economic stimulus plan, health care reform, and financial regulation that he said drove up the nation's debt without creating jobs.

"The Keynesian experiment of more spending has failed to produce jobs," Ryan said, referring to economist John Maynard Keynes' theory of macro-economic stabilization through government intervention.

Both speakers offered, in broad terms, their own recommendations for economic recovery. Holtz-Eakin said growth needs to come through private investment and international trade, while Ryan reiterated his desire to restructure government spending, first and foremost through its entitlement programs.

Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich is enjoying a new round of perennial presidential candidacy buzz – he came in a surprisingly strong third in a recent 2012 preference poll among Iowa Republicans - but his personal life continues to dog him.

Conservative Republican Sen. Tom Coburn of Oklahoma bluntly stated his concern about the twice-divorced, thrice-married Gingrich during a Friday town hall.

"He's the last person I'd vote for for president of the United States,” Coburn said, per the Tulsa World. “His life indicates he does not have a commitment to the character traits necessary to be a great president."

Coburn said that Gingrich’s personal history indicates that he “doesn't know anything about commitment to marriage.”

A recent profile in Esquire magazine explored that history, including details of the affairs that ended his first two marriages. The writer interviewed Gingrich’s second wife, Marianne, who painted a frank picture of her ex-husband's moral inconsistencies.

"He believes that what he says in public and how he lives don't have to be connected," she said in the interview. "If you believe that, then yeah, you can run for president."

*** UPDATE *** Msnbc.com's Tom Curry points out that Coburn has long been critical of the former House Speaker.

In his 2003 book, Breach of Trust, Coburn portrayed Gingrich as lacking in courage and in good judgment.

Coburn said Gingrich was outwitted by President Bill Clinton in the 1995 battle over the budget which led to temporary shutdown of the government. “Our leaders folded instead of standing their ground,” Coburn wrote. “History shows that the shutdown fight was a fight we could have won.”

Glenn Beck’s “Restoring Honor” rally came to a peaceful and orderly conclusion on Saturday evening, and by now, most of the event’s attendees are back in their hometowns. So, fervent controversy over the specifics of the event – which, as Beck promised, contained few overt political statements, albeit with partisan overtones – should be quieting down too, right?

Not for the crowd estimators, it ain’t.

Estimates of just how many people attended Saturday’s event have varied from modest calculations of under 90,000 to brassy declarations of over a million.

CBS News, which hired company AirPhotosLive.com to conduct an estimate, put the tally at around 87,000. One park service official told NBC News that the number was somewhere around 300,000. (The National Park Service no longer issues official crowd estimates after it was pilloried for allegedly miscalculating attendance at the 1995 Million Man March.)

Beck himself told the crowd that he’d seen estimates that “between 300,000 and 500,000” people showed up. Sarah Palin told POLITICO’s Jonathan Martin that she was disappointed by an Associated Press description of the “tens of thousands” of ralliers, adding that she believed turnout to have been over 100,000.

And, at a rally piggybacking off of the Restoring Honor event, Minnesota congresswoman and Tea Party darling Rep. Michele Bachmann challenged anyone who calculated Beck’s audience at anything less than seven digits. “We're not going let anyone get away with saying there were less than a million here today because we were witnesses," Bachmann said.

The truth is probably somewhere in the middle. But, regardless of the precise number, the crowd stretching from the steps of the Lincoln Memorial to beyond the World War II Memorial was most certainly a sobering sight for Democrats.

Although Beck supporters at the event offered mostly vague notions of exactly what the nation as a whole must restore or recapture, all of those that Msnbc.com interviewed were adamant that they hope to vote “liberals” and “career politicians” out of office in the upcoming midterm elections.

“We've been sitting on the couch too long," said Bobbi Janson from Allentown, Penn. “We’ve got to get this message out.”

In advance of President Obama's Oval Office address tomorrow on Iraq and Afghanistan, the vice president's office has just announced that Joe Biden has arrived in Iraq. Per a release:

The Vice President’s visit at this juncture will reinforce the long-term U.S. commitment to Iraq. The Vice President will meet with Iraqi President Jalal Talabani, Vice President Tariq al-Hashimi, Vice President Adil Abd al-Mahdi, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, leader of the Iraqiyya coalition Ayad Allawi, Chairman of the Islamic Supreme Council Ammar al-Hakim and other political leaders to discuss the latest developments in Iraq and to urge Iraqi leaders to conclude negotiations on the formation of a new government.

From NBC's Mark Murray
Earlier, we noted that, over the next two weeks, President Obama's schedule will be heavy on items not related to the economy: Hurricane Katrina (yesterday), Iraq/Afghanistan (tomorrow), Middle East peace (Wednesday), and the 9/11 anniversary (next week).

Clearly not wanting the economy to take a backseat to those other issues, the White House has just announced that Obama will make a statement to reporters at 12:30 pm ET. Per MSNBC's Richard Wolffe, the subject is the economy.

Obama’s next two weeks probably won’t have a heavy focus on the economy… The president spoke yesterday with NBC’s Brian Williams about New Orleans after Katrina, the BP spill, the economy, and Glenn Beck… New York Times on the “reluctant warrior” in the White House… Time to follow the Tea Party money… It’s Manchin vs. Raese in West Virginia’s Senate race… It’s Vitter vs. Melancon in Louisiana… Roger Clemens to be arraigned in DC at 2:00 pm ET… Profiling AZ-1… And Adrian Fenty trails in DC mayoral race, per Washington Post poll.

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Ali Weinberg
*** Obama’s next two weeks: Those hoping that President Obama would make a hard pivot to the economy after his 10-day vacation might not get their wish -- at least over the next two weeks. Yesterday, he was in New Orleans, where he marked Hurricane Katrina’s fifth anniversary. Tomorrow, he’ll deliver his second formal Oval Office address, this time to discuss the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. On Wednesday, the AP notes, he’ll dive into Middle East peace talks, hosting Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Palestinian President Abbas. And then next week comes the 9/11 anniversary, which will only rekindle the controversy over the mosque near Ground Zero. The one exception, at least this week, will probably occur on Friday, when the new job numbers are released. Still, despite the calls from Democrats for Obama to focus more on the economy, the economic cake seems mostly baked for the upcoming midterms.

*** Brian Williams’ interview with Obama: NBC’s Brian Williams spoke with the president while he was in New Orleans yesterday. Obama on the city’s recovery after Katrina: “What you've seen … in New Orleans is steady progress. But, you know, we've still got a long way to go.” On the BP spill: “We've got a lot more work to do. But the fact is because of the sturdiness and swiftness of the response, there's a lot less oil hitting these shores and these beaches than anybody would have anticipated.” On short-term ways to help the economy: “We should be passing legislation that helps small businesses get credit. That eliminates capital gains taxes so that they have more incentive to invest right now.” On those who incorrectly believe he’s a Muslim: “I don't think the American people want me to spend all my time worrying about it.” And on Glenn Beck’s rally last Saturday: “Given all [the country’s] anxieties … it’s not surprising that somebody like a Mr. Beck is able to stir up a certain portion of the country. That's been true throughout our history.”

*** The reluctant warrior: In advance of Tuesday night’s Oval Office address on Iraq and Afghanistan, the New York Times’ Peter Baker yesterday wrote a lengthy piece about Obama’s first two years as commander-in-chief. “A year and a half into his presidency, Mr. Obama appears to be a reluctant warrior. Even as he draws down troops in Iraq, he has been abundantly willing to use force to advance national interests… But advisers said he did not see himself as a war president in the way his predecessor did.” The article is a sort of Rorschach test. If you don’t like Obama, you’ll fixate on the story’s focus that the president views the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan as a distraction and that he doesn’t necessarily understand the military’s culture. On the other hand, if you do like him, or are rooting for him, you’ll fixate on the article’s emphasis of how deliberative and careful he’s tried to be in managing both wars.

*** Follow the money: With the huge crowd that gathered at Saturday’s Glenn Beck event, many are now seeing the Tea Party as a political force to be reckoned with come November -- and possibly beyond. Here’s one headline: “Beck rally signals election trouble for Dems.” But if the Tea Party is now a huge force, impacting both GOP primaries and the general election, it’s important for news organizations to begin explaining the groups financing this Tea Party movement. The New Yorker’s Jane Mayer started things off in her recent piece on the billionaire Koch brothers, who have financed one of the big Tea Party movers, Americans for Prosperity. “The anti-government fervor infusing the 2010 elections represents a political triumph for the Kochs. By giving money to ‘educate,’ fund, and organize Tea Party protesters, they have helped turn their private agenda into a mass movement.”

*** Why Manchin might not be a sure bet in November: The general election is now set in the race to fill the remainder of Robert Byrd’s (D) Senate seat in West Virginia, after Gov. Joe Manchin (D) and businessman John Raese (R) won their respective primaries on Saturday. Although Manchin is undoubtedly the front-runner in this contest -- due in large part to his high approval ratings -- here’s a word of caution for Democrats: Popular governors running for the Senate haven’t always enjoyed success. In 1994, Wyoming Gov. Mike Sullivan (D) lost to Craig Thomas (R); in 1996, Nebraska Gov. Ben Nelson (D), whose poll numbers were in the 60s, lost to Chuck Hagel (R); and also in ‘96, popular Massachusetts Gov. Bill Weld (R) lost to Sen. John Kerry (D). What makes someone a well-liked and successful governor isn’t always what voters seem to want from their U.S. senator.

*** And why David Vitter could be a sure thing in the fall: Also on Saturday, as expected, Sen. David Vitter (R) cruised to victory in GOP Senate primary in Louisiana, while Rep. Charlie Melancon (D) won the Dem primary. The Vitter-Melancon contest has the potential to be competitive, or it could be a Republican blowout. If it’s the latter, there’s a good story to tell about how Vitter -- despite all of his baggage -- could end up winning a second term. Part of this could be explained by the state’s increasingly GOP tilt. But it also could be explained by the overall political environment. If this were 2006 or 2008, Vitter might be holding on for dear life. But as Rod Blagojevich and Jim Doyle discovered in ’06, flawed candidates can sometimes easily win when the political winds are at their party’s back.

*** Clemens to be arraigned: At 2:00 pm ET, former baseball star Roger Clemens is set to be arraigned before a U.S. district court in DC.

*** 75 House races to watch: AZ-1: The Democratic nominee is first-term incumbent Ann Kirkpatrick, while the GOP nominee is dentist Paul Gosar. In 2008, McCain received 54% of the vote in the district, and Bush got an identical percentage in ’04. As of Aug. 24, Kirkpatrick had $1.4 million in the bank, compared with Gosar’s $410,000. Kirkpatrick voted no on the stimulus and cap-and-trade, but voted yes on health care. Both Cook and Rothenberg rate the contest as Lean Democratic.

*** More midterms: In California, the Los Angeles Times covers the “tight race” between Meg Whitman (R) and Jerry Brown (D)… In DC’s mayoral contest, incumbent Adrian Fenty is trailing primary challenger Vincent Gray by 17 points (53%-36%) per a Washington Post poll… In Illinois, Gen. Wesley Clark stumps for Alex Giannoulias (D)… In New Hampshire, the Union Leader endorsed Ovide Lamontagne in the upcoming GOP Senate primary…. And in New Mexico’s gubernatorial race, an Albuquerque Journal poll shows Susana Martinez (R) leading Diane Denish (D) by six points, 45%-39%.

Countdown to DC, MD. MA, NH, NY, RI, and WI primaries: 15 days
Countdown to HI primaries: 19 days
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 64 days

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The Washington Post: “President Obama marked the fifth anniversary of Hurricane Katrina on Sunday with a solidarity visit to this city still recovering from the devastating storm, pledging to ‘stand with you and fight alongside you until the job is done.’” More: “‘The work ahead will not be easy,’ Obama told an audience of several hundred students, professors and community leaders at Xavier University, a campus that was shut down for months after the hurricane. ‘There will be setbacks. There will be challenges along the way. But today, thanks to you and the people of this great city, New Orleans is blossoming once more.’”

The New York Times adds, “‘There are some wounds that do not heal,’ the president acknowledged. ‘There are some losses that cannot be repaid. And for many who lived through those harrowing days five years ago, there is a searing memory that time will not erase.’”

“Conservative commentator Glenn Beck voiced sharper criticism of President Obama's religious beliefs on Sunday than he and other speakers offered from the podium of the rally Beck organized at the Lincoln Memorial a day earlier,” the Washington Post writes. “During an interview on ‘Fox News Sunday,’ which was filmed after Saturday's rally, Beck claimed that Obama ‘is a guy who understands the world through liberation theology, which is oppressor-and-victim.’ ‘People aren't recognizing his version of Christianity,’ Beck added.”

Beck and Sarah Palin “won't be teaming up on a presidential ticket in 2012, the talk show host said Sunday, after their combined star power drew thousands to the National Mall this weekend. ‘Not a chance,’ Beck said on ‘Fox News Sunday,’ on the network that broadcasts the radio and TV host's popular daily show. ‘I have no desire to be president of the United States. Zero desire. I don't think that I would be electable.’”