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  • Off the top turnbuckle...

    Like a soap operatic professional wrestling script, once-out-of-the race Rob Simmons appears to be running down the hallway, back into the ring.

    Political Wire points out a New London Day piece that shows Simmons "will begin airing TV ads urging voters to "look at the issues" before voting in the Aug. 10 primary."

    Rumors have circulated pretty much since Simmons suspended his campaign that he was getting back in. It's perhaps one ploy to raise his profile and make the most of limited resources, particularly against front-runner WWE mogul Linda McMahon, who could potentially spend about $50 million on her campaign.

    The Day:

    In a press release on Wednesday, Simmons said he would spend some of his remaining campaign funds on the TV spots.

    "For the past two months, I have been travelling the state supporting my fellow Republican candidates," Simmons said. "Everywhere I go people ask me if I am still running for the U.S. Senate. My response has been 'I'm still on the ballot.'" ...

    Here's the script of the Simmons ad:

    "Today, it's important to vote with your heart and your head. Bailouts and tax increases have crippled the economy and cost us jobs. Small business is our backbone. Let's help them. National security must remain strong. Put your trust in the candidate who is and will be an advocate for veterans. These issues will have a lasting effect on our children. In the Republican primary on August tenth, you do have a choice. I'm Rob Simmons, I'm still on the ballot, and I approved this message."

    Show more
  • Blago: Gov't 'proved I was innocent'

    Disgraced former Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich might not be taking the stand in his trial, but he was happy to speak to the cameras.

    He explained that he did not take the stand in his defense because "the government proved my case, proved I was innocent, and there was nothing further for me to add." His defense team, by the way, rested its case today without calling a single witness.

    He said there was a split among his father-and-son legal team. Blago said he and Sam Adam Jr. wanted him to testify; Sam Sr., however, did not. Blagojevich insisted that he did nothing illegal, that the prosecution only proved that he was "brainstorming about some ideas." He added, "Yes, they proved some of the ideas were stupid. They also proved some of the ideas were good."

    The loquacious Blagojevich concluded with a lesson learned. "I would like to say that I have learned a lot of lessons from this," he said, "and perhaps the biggest lesson is that I talk too much."

    He might mean that in more ways than one.

  • Ryan urges fiscal discipline from GOP

    From Msnbc.com's Jason Strachman Miller
    The top Republican on the House Budget Committee on Wednesday called for a new generation of Republican lawmakers to return to the fiscal fundamentals of the GOP.

    “If we want to be clear with the American people, we have to acknowledge we didn’t do it right when we had the majority the last time,” said Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., citing earmarks and excessive federal spending as areas in which Republicans failed to practice fiscal discipline.

    Speaking at the American Enterprise Institute, Ryan, a sixth-term congressman from Wisconsin's first congressional district, said that GOP lawmakers like him who have long advocated for budgetary restraint are not "back-benchers anymore."

    “We’ve ascended to more positions of leadership and responsibility in the fiscal policy of our party. There’s no way we’re going to let stuff like that happen under our watch, or we’re leaving,” he said.

    Ryan said that the Democratic Party is leading America into a “European socialism welfare state.”

    “The progressivists’ tale is wrong because it misstates the very nature of free enterprise,” Ryan said. “It presumes free enterprise is materialistic and selfish.”

    Ryan's plan, “A Road Map for America’s Future,” proposes replacing the current corporate income tax with a with a border-adjustable business consumption tax of 8.5 percent, which he says would result in more incentives for new businesses to operate in America.

    The plan is predicated on the repeal of universal health care and offers a complete consumer-driven replacement. It would give all Americans a refundable tax credit to buy health insurance and allow individual investment accounts to be carved out of Social Security.

    “This isn’t a plan for austerity and pain,” Ryan said. “It’s a prudent, temperate, achievable modest plan for prosperity that fulfills our commitment to the mission of retirement health assistance and other safety net programs."

    Ryan acknowledged his plan could lead to attacks from the Democrats during the mid-term elections, but stated that the GOP has a responsibility to get back to the fundamentals of their beliefs.

    “We went from a very principled new majority, to looking at the Democratic machine we just defeated. And [we] decided, let’s just turn it into a Republican machine,” Ryan said. “And then the earmarks and all the other things occurred and we became an incumbent party.

    "That’s why I’m putting all these ideas out there. If we get elected, we have the moral obligation and authority to act on those ideas.”

  • Clyburn: 'Haste makes waste'


    Didn’t the White House ever learn that “haste makes waste”? Apparently they forgot the old adage when they fired Shirley Sherrod yesterday, Rep. James Clyburn (D-SC) told NBC’s Savannah Guthrie today on Andrea Mitchell Reports. “That's exactly what happened here,” Clyburn said. “There was too much haste and it created a very horrible situation for what seems to be an outstanding human being.”

    With all of the technological dicing and splicing that’s done today, the administration should have known better than to react quickly before getting all the facts, Clyburn pointed out. “This kind of reaction to a doctored video is just absolutely horrible,” he said. “We need to take a real hard look at how we go about reporting the news, and reacting to the news, because that's what happened here. Both the reporting and the reacting were horrible.”

    Clyburn didn’t just criticize the White House and the media, he called on everyone to be introspective and learn from the situation. “I think all of us really need to take stock of ourselves and let us use this as a moment to never again react to any videotape out there, any kind of audiotape that may be out there,” he said.

    Although the administration apologized shortly after Clyburn’s interview, he argued that words alone wouldn’t do. “It’s what we do that really matters,” said Clyburn, who turned 70 today. “Something must be done to demonstrate that we realize that we acted too hastily in this instance,” he said.

    Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

  • Obama signs financial regulatory overhaul

    From NBC's Athena Jones
    After a hard-won legislative victory, President Obama signed into law the most sweeping regulatory overhaul since the Great Depression.

    The president thanked the members of Congress who helped push the bill through, including Sen. Chris Dodd and Rep. Barney Frank, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, all of whom were on hand for the signing ceremony at the Ronald Reagan Building. He also thanked the three Republican senators who voted to pass a bill he said would "lift our economy."

    Among other things the new law establishes a Consumer Financial Protection Bureau to be housed at the Federal Reserve that will write rules governing credit providers and a Financial Stability Oversight Council to monitor systemic risks. It gives the government so-called resolution authority to unwind failing financial firms that could threaten the financial system, requires greater transparency in the derivatives market, limits investments by commercial banks in private equity or hedge funds and allows shareholders a say on how executives are compensated.


    After the health care overhaul, this bill marks the White House's most significant legislative achievement, one the administration has argued is essential to the economic recovery, in part because it will provide greater certainty to investors and put a stop to the kind of bad loans, mainly mortgages, that fueled what Obama called a "debt-based bubble."

    "We all stand to gain from these reforms," Obama said. "We all win when investors around the world have confidence in our markets; we all win when shareholders have more power and information; we all win when consumers are protected against abuse and we all win when folks are rewarded based on how well they perform, not how well they evade accountability."

    He went on to say the financial system could work effectively only when there were clear rules and basic safeguards to prevent abuse.

    Now the attention turns to implementing the bill. Obama must nominate -- and the Senate must confirm -- people to head new agencies like the Consumer Protection Bureau and the Office of Financial Research and independent regulators must write the new rules the bill calls for, a process government officials acknowledged would likely be the subject of an intense lobbying effort by industry "stakeholders."

    In a briefing with reporters on Tuesday, Deputy Treasury Secretary Neal Wolin and Deputy Director of the National Economic Council Diana Farrell said the administration was determined to ensure a transparent rule-making process.

    The officials laid out a timeline for implementation of several aspects of the bill, saying the government's resolution authority would be effective immediately and the consumer protection office would be stood up within a year. According to a fact sheet provided by the White House, the Volcker Rule limiting risk-taking by commercial banks would take effect within 18 months. Neither official would hazard a guess as to how many new people would be hired as a result of the new law or guess when the heads of the new agencies could be named.

    Among those on hand for the signing were TARP watchdog Elizabeth Warren -- said to be a candidate for head of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFP), former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker -- who proposed the Volcker Rule and bankers like Barclays PLC President Bob Diamond, Bank of New York Mellon President Gerald Hassell and Citigroup CEO Vikram Pandit.

    Speaking to reporters at the White House after the bill signing, Iowa Attorney General Tom Miller, Massachusetts Attorney General Martha Coakley and Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan threw their support behind Warren to head the CFP, noting that the bureau was her idea.

    "I can't think of anybody who'd be better," Coakley said.

    Critics who believe the Obama administration is anti-business have suggested more bankers should have been invited to the event, while more general criticism of the new law has centered on whether it would do enough to prevent a future crisis and whether it ends "too big to fail", even as the president promised in his speech that the overhaul would "put a stop to taxpayer bailouts once and for all."

    Volcker himself has expressed concern that restrictions on commercial banks' investments were watered down and others -- especially Republicans -- are angry the bill failed to overhaul the government-sponsored mortgages companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac -- which some have called "ground zero" in the financial crisis.

    In an email, the Republican National Committee called the bill a "Main Street Takeover" and said voters didn't trusts government to overhaul financial regulations.

  • LA-SEN gets a little less family-friendly

    When Louisiana Republican Chet Traylor bounded into a primary challenge against Sen. David Vitter just moments before the state’s filing deadline, he alluded to a pair of sizzling stories about Vitter’s personal life, including a 2007 prostitution scandal and a recent allegation that Vitter knowingly continuted to employ an aide accused of domestic violence. “You know, quite frankly, if he weren't in trouble and didn't have problems, I wouldn't be in the race,” Traylor said at the time.

    But Traylor’s own unconventional romantic history – including a relationship with his daughter-in-law – may cause the former state Supreme Court justice some problems of his own.

    As the The News-Star reported yesterday:

    State Rep. Noble Ellington, D-Winnsboro, said that Traylor was "significantly involved" in the cause of his divorce from Peggy McDowell, who later married Chet Traylor and became Peggy McDowell Traylor.

    Noble Ellington said in an interview Monday that Traylor was "certainly part of the reason" for his divorce from his then wife. Traylor denies the accusation and said Ellington and the former Peggy McDowell, who died last year, were separated before his relationship with McDowell began.

    "That's absolutely untrue," Traylor replied when asked if he played a part in Ellington's divorce.

    Traylor is also currently involved in a romantic relationship with Denise Lively, the estranged wife of his stepson, Ryan Ellington, the son of Noble Ellington.

    Lively and Ryan Ellington remain legally married, but both he and Traylor said the Lively-Traylor relationship began while Lively and Ryan Ellington were separated.

    A few months after the death of Peggy McDowell Traylor, Chet Traylor began the relationship with Lively. Ryan Ellington said a divorce with Denise Lively is pending.

    Ryan Ellington and his brother, Noble Ellington III, also sued Traylor last month, alleging that their stepfather has resisted their attempts to gather their deceased mother's bank records and some of her property.

  • First Patty Murray, now Charlie Crist


    The conservative American Action Network -- which first targeted Sen. Patty Murray (D) in a tough (and provocative) TV ad -- is now turning its attention to Charlie Crist (I).

    According to the group, this new anti-Crist TV ad is a significant buy in the Tampa/St. Pete and Panama City markets.

    One thing you might not know about the American Action Network is that former GOP Sen. Norm Coleman is its chairman.

  • Capito won't run for the Senate

    The Charleston Daily Mail (WV) reports that GOP Rep. Shelley Moore Capito won't run in the special election for Robert Byrd's Senate seat, side-stepping what would have been a competitive contest against Gov. Joe Manchin (D), who is running for the seat.

    Rep. Shelley Moore Capito, R-W.Va., will not run for the state's vacant U.S. Senate seat, she announced this morning... Capito gave several reasons for staying out of the race, including a possible legal challenge that could confuse an already confused process.

    "There has been enough unnecessary chaos and controversy surrounding the vacancy in the U.S. Senate," she said in a statement released this morning. "My candidacy would create more uncertainty, invite a legal challenge, and misrepresent my priorities as a public servant."

    Her announcement ends speculation that Capito and Manchin might have mounted one of the nastiest political campaigns ever run in the state.

  • First thoughts: Snookered

    Learning the lesson -- again -- how Breitbart and his protégés are more interested in liberal scalps than the truth… Why no one looks good in this story, especially the media… Liberals’ numerical disadvantage to conservatives… Obama signs yet another domestic achievement into law at 11:30 am ET… What happens when the GOP co-opts the Tea Party?... RNC having to deal with more damage control… In Georgia, it’s Handel vs. Deal in the GOP run-off for governor, while Roy Barnes cruises to victory in the Dem primary… Profiling AL-5… And Ellsworth out with his second TV ad.

    From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
    *** Snookered: After conservative activist James O’Keefe pleaded guilty to a misdemeanor for entering a federal building under false pretenses, you would have thought that all of us in the ACTUAL news business would have learned this lesson about Andrew Breitbart and his protégés: They’re not out for the truth; they’re out for scalps. So once again, we find out that Breitbart has distributed an EDITED video that gets wide play on Drudge and cable TV; that the target of the video is embarrassed, forced to resign, or stripped of federal funding; and that -- surprise, surprise -- the video didn’t tell the whole truth.

    *** No one looks good here: The most recent example -- an Agriculture Department employee apparently giving a racist speech before the NAACP, the Obama administration firing this employee, but it turns out that the speech was actually a positive one -- doesn’t make anyone look good. The Ag Department (which dismissed the employee, but is now reexamining the matter), the White House (which is always quick to jettison anyone under conservative fire, especially when it comes to race), or the NAACP (which, after its spat with the Tea Party over race, condemned her speech but has taken it back). But those who look the worst here are the news media. Any credible journalist or journalistic organization given an edited video would want to see the full context, right? Especially if you know the source has an agenda, right? Yet the same questions could be asked of the White House. How did an administration that complains so much about the 24-7 media culture -- often correctly, we might add -- act without knowing all the facts?

    *** Beware of the shiny metal object: Breitbart and other conservatives used race as the bait to guilt the so-called MSM and the Obama administration. Is this a story about race? Is it a story about the media? It's both, but let's not let race be the shiny metal object that distracts from the conversation about today's media culture and Washington's addiction to it.

    *** Liberals’ numerical disadvantage: From the conservative blogosphere to the liberal one… When the liberal blogosphere confab, Netroots Nation, kicks off tomorrow in Las Vegas, it will inevitably further the "Why are progressives disappointed in Obama?" storyline. In the past few months, liberal commentators have bemoaned that the public option wasn’t included in the health care law, that the financial reform legislation -- which President Obama will sign into law today -- isn’t strong enough, and that Gitmo still isn't closed. The Nation's Eric Alterman even penned a widely discussed essay explaining these disappointments on a system that's stacked against progressives. But here is something to consider: It's the country -- not the system -- that's stacked against liberals and progressives.

    *** For Democrats, it’s all about the center: From 1989 (after Reagan's presidency) to now, the most stable data in the NBC/WSJ poll has been that roughly one-fifth of the country identifies as being liberal, while one-third identifies being conservative. Even in 2008, when Obama decisively won the presidency, the average in the poll was 25% liberal, 36% conservative. And in 1996, when Bill Clinton easily won re-election, it was 22% liberal, 34% conservative. For Democrats, this means that if they want to win national elections, they need to win about 60% of the self-described moderate vote -- which Obama did in '08 and congressional Dems did in '06, per the exit polls. By comparison, however, John Kerry got 54% of the moderate vote in 2004.

    *** Changing the trajectory: So the bigger question for Democrats and liberals shouldn't be: "Why isn't Obama's presidency more progressive?" Instead, it should be: "Why isn't the country more progressive?" During the '08 presidential campaign, Obama declared (controversially at the time): "Reagan changed the trajectory of America in a way that Richard Nixon did not and in a way that Bill Clinton did not." He was correct. And progressives -- as well as historians -- might better judge Obama 10 to 15 years from now, whether his administration was able to bend the trajectory of American politics like Reagan did after '88.

    *** Another domestic achievement: Here’s one consequence of the USDA/race/NAACP/Breitbart story: The media is going to pay more attention to it than to President Obama’s second-biggest domestic achievement so far this year. At 11:30 am ET, President Obama signs the financial reform legislation into law. Obama also will sign the extension of unemployment benefits into law -- but he’ll have to wait. NBC’s Ken Strickland and Shawna Thomas reported yesterday that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said Republicans are making him burn the 30 hours that is required, but often waived, after a filibuster is broken. "We just passed badly needed legislation to help two-and-a-half million unemployed," Reid said on the Senate floor. "To show the lack of understanding and feeling and compassion of the Republicans, they're making us waste 30 hours."

    *** What happens when the GOP co-opts the Tea Party? Per NBC’s Luke Russert and Shawna Thomas, the brand-new Tea Party caucus will hold its first meeting today at 9:00 am ET, and then holds a press conference at 10:00 am. And here are those who have RSVPed to attend: Michele Bachmann (MN), Paul Broun (R-GA), Dan Burton (R-IN), John Carter (R-TX), John Culberson (R-TX), Louie Gohmert (R-TX), Pete Hoekstra (R-MI), Steve King (R-IA), Mike Pence (R-IN), Pete Sessions (R-TX), Cliff Stearns (R-FL), Todd Tiahrt (R-KS). Do note that at least two of these members -- Sessions and Pence -- are part of the GOP leadership. What’s more, as MSNBC.com Carrie Dann notes, all of these members come from VERY safe GOP districts. In fact, they won on average 62% of the vote in their 2008 elections. The decision by Sessions to join the Tea Party caucus might be comfortable to him as Congressman Sessions, but is it the right thing for NRCC Chairman Sessions, especially since there are moderates in places like New Hampshire or New York or Massachusetts who probably will NOT join the Tea Party caucus?

    *** More damage control for the RNC: The Washington Times reports, “The Republican National Committee failed to report more than $7 million in debt to the Federal Election Commission in recent months - a move that made its bottom line appear healthier than it is heading into the midterm elections and that also raises the prospect of a hefty fine. In a memo to RNC budget committee members, RNC Treasurer Randy Pullen on Tuesday accused Chairman Michael S. Steele and his chief of staff, Michael Leavitt, of trying to conceal the information from him by ordering staff not to communicate with the treasurer - a charge RNC officials deny. Mr. Pullen told the members that he had discovered $3.3 million in debt from April and $3.8 million from May, which he said had led him to file erroneous reports with the FEC. He amended the FEC filings Tuesday.” The RNC denies to First Read that it has any debt, and says every invoice Pullen used was already paid for. But it can’t be dismissed: The RNC’s treasurer and chairman are at odds here, and this news only helps groups like Karl Rove’s that are trying to raise money outside the RNC.

    *** The Georgia results: In Georgia last night, Karen Handel -- boosted by her Palin endorsement -- got a plurality (34%) in the GOP gubernatorial primary, and will compete in an Aug. 10 run-off against second-place finisher Nathan Deal, who got 23%. And in the Democratic primary, former Gov. Roy Barnes easily won his primary, getting 66% -- an impressive feat considering that he was competing against (among others) the state’s top African-American elected official (two-term Attorney General Thurbert Baker). It is worth noting how the Republican Governors Association, which wasn’t too fond of seeing onetime-frontrunner John Oxendine (who finished fourth) winning, has benefited from Palin’s endorsements. They were more than happy to see Nikki Haley win in South Carolina. Ditto Handel in Georgia… In many ways, the RGA has been clever about using Palin late to dispatch with problem potential nominees in New Mexico, South Carolina and, now, Georgia.

    *** 75 House races to watch: Previewing AL-5: Today, we look at the race in AL-5, where incumbent Parker Griffith (R) lost his primary after switching from the Democratic Party to the Republican Party. The Democratic nominee is Steve Raby, who won his primary with 62%. And the GOP nominee is Mo Brooks, who won with 51%. John McCain won 61% of the vote in this district in ’08, and George W. Bush won 60% in ’04.

    *** More midterm news: In June, the DSCC outraised the NRSC, Politico writes… In Arkansas, a new Reuters/Ipsos poll shows John Boozman (R) leading Blanche Lincoln (D) by 19 points… And in Indiana, Brad Ellsworth (D) has unveiled his second TV ad.

    Countdown to OK primary: 6 days
    Countdown to KS and MO primaries: 13 days
    Countdown to CO and CT primaries: 20 days
    Countdown to Election Day 2010: 104 days

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  • Congress: Jobless benefits and Kagan clear hurdles

    The Boston Globe’s top story: “Senate Democrats yesterday revived an extension of unemployment benefits for 2.5 million Americans, managing to break through a GOP deadlock rooted in deep disagreements over the economy… Barely 10 minutes after Vice President Joe Biden administered the oath of office to [Carte] Goodwin, the Senate began the roll call vote to end the filibuster. Goodwin was among the last to vote, offering a soft aye and getting applause from a gallery packed with friends and supporters from West Virginia.”

    But the Senate wasn’t able to pass the legislation yesterday, NBC’s Ken Strickland and Shawna Thomas report. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said Republicans are making him burn the 30 hours that is required, but often waived, after a filibuster is broken. "We just passed badly needed legislation to help two-and-a-half million unemployed," Reid said on the Senate floor. "To show the lack of understanding and feeling and compassion of the Republicans, they're making us waste 30 hours."

    How many times in the past year and a half has this line been written? “Splitting largely along party lines….” This time it’s in reference to the vote for Elena Kagan’s confirmation to the Supreme Court. She won one GOP vote on the Judiciary Committee from Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina. Said Graham, “It was not a hard decision… She will serve this nation honorably, and [she] would not have been someone I would have chosen, but the person who did choose, President Obama, I think chose wisely.” Conservative interest groups, like pro-gun lobby the National Rifle Association and anti-abortion rights group Susan B. Anthony List, opposed her and pressured Republicans.

    “Senate Democrats remain deeply divided over how or whether to debate energy and climate change legislation this month, with some suggesting Tuesday that the party should do little or nothing on the politically charged topic so close to the midterm elections,” Roll Call writes.

    “President Obama’s nominee to oversee the nation’s intelligence community vowed yesterday to ‘push the envelope’ in broadening his authority and pledged that he would not be a ‘hood ornament’ for a system marked by the recent massive expansion of top secret agencies and contracts,” the AP writes.

    Roll Call noted, “President Barack Obama sent the Senate his nomination of Donald Berwick as administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services on Monday -- a move that comes two weeks after Obama bypassed Congress to put his stalled nominee in the post until the end of 2011.”

  • Obama agenda: Rebuffed

    The AP: “Prime Minister David Cameron of Britain said yesterday that he would not order a fresh investigation into why Scotland set free a convicted bomber or whether BP had a role in it. In declaring his position — to potentially make public more information from an earlier investigation of the man’s release, but not start a new probe — Cameron politely but roundly rebuffed the US government in his first White House visit.”

    What happens in a Breitbart-Fox News world, as they try for scalps: “Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack said Wednesday he will reconsider the department's decision to oust a black employee over racially tinged remarks after learning more about what she said.” The mid-level official in charge of rural development in Georgia Shirley “Sherrod said her remarks, delivered in March at a local NAACP banquet in Georgia, were part of a larger story about learning from her mistakes and racial reconciliation, not racism, and they were taken out of context by a blogger who posted only part of her speech. Vilsack's statement came after the NAACP posted the full video of Sherrod's comments Tuesday night.”

    More: “The Obama administration's move to reconsider her employment was an absolute reversal from hours earlier, when a White House official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said President Barack Obama had been briefed on Sherrod's resignation after the fact and stood by the Agriculture Department's handling of it. The white farming family that was the subject of the story also stood by Sherrod and said she should stay. ‘We probably wouldn't have (our farm) today if it hadn't been for her leading us in the right direction,’ said Eloise Spooner, the wife of farmer Roger Spooner of Iron City, Ga. ‘I wish she could get her job back because she was good to us, I tell you.’”

    The Washington Post: “For some on the right, Sherrod's comments as initially reported reinforced a larger, more sinister narrative: that the administration of the first African American to occupy the White House practices its own brand of racism… Suspicions on the right that Obama has a hidden agenda -- theories stoked in part by conservative media and sometimes involving race -- have been a subplot of his rise, beginning almost as soon as he announced his campaign. They lie beneath many of the questions that conservatives on the political fringes have raised about his motives, his legitimacy and even his citizenship.”

    “On the other hand, some of the president's allies on the left have at times reflexively seen racism as the real force behind the vehemence of the opposition against Obama's policies and decisions.”

    “The president of the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People apologized Tuesday to a black civil servant whose ouster the civil rights organization had originally cheered,” the New York Times adds. “After seeing the full video, the N.A.A.C.P. said Tuesday that it had been ‘snookered’ into believing Ms. Sherrod had acted with bias. ‘We are in a moment where there is heightened sensitivity and concern, including within the N.A.A.C.P., about discrimination against white people,’ said Benjamin T. Jealous, the group’s president. He said the N.A.A.C.P. wanted ‘to be clear that there’s a single yardstick by which civil rights are judged.’”

  • GOP watch: A debt to pay?

    “The Republican National Committee failed to report more than $7 million in debt to the Federal Election Commission in recent months - a move that made its bottom line appear healthier than it is heading into the midterm elections and that also raises the prospect of a hefty fine,” the Washington Times says. “In a memo to RNC budget committee members, RNC Treasurer Randy Pullen on Tuesday accused Chairman Michael S. Steele and his chief of staff, Michael Leavitt, of trying to conceal the information from him by ordering staff not to communicate with the treasurer - a charge RNC officials deny.”

    “Mr. Pullen told the members that he had discovered $3.3 million in debt from April and $3.8 million from May, which he said had led him to file erroneous reports with the FEC. He amended the FEC filings Tuesday.”

  • The midterms: Results from Georgia

    “The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee outraised its Republican counterpart by $3 million in June to regain a slight cash-on-hand advantage heading into July,” Roll Call reports. “The DSCC raised more than $7.1 million in June and ended the month with more than $21 million in the bank for the November elections. The National Republican Senatorial Committee raised more than $4 million in June and closed out the month with $19.7 million in the bank, the committee announced Tuesday.”

    “House GOP campaign chief Rep. Pete Sessions (Texas) said that he has joined the newly-formed Tea Party caucus,” The Hill reports, adding: “Sessions said that every Tea Party event that he’s been to over the past year and a half has consisted of “one-third Democrats, one-third Republicans and one-third Independents. They are 100 percent fired up about trying to save this country from a big government that is taxing, spending and causing deficit.” Polls don’t bear out Sessions’ claim at a pen-and-pad with reporters yesterday. They show that Tea Party activists are overwhelmingly conservative.

    GEORGIA: Former Gov. Roy Barnes won the Democratic nomination outright last night with a commanding win over state Attorney General Thurbert Baker, 66%-22%.

    It’s Sarah Palin-backed Karen Handel vs. Newt Gingrich-endorsed Nathan Deal for the GOP gubernatorial primary runoff. “State Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine slipped to fourth place after leading the pack in polls for much of the race,” The Hill notes. Oxendine finished behind Eric Johnson.

    Despite outspending his Democratic primary opponent 20 to 1, incumbent Rep. John Barrow won his primary just 58%-42%. He was running against the same opponent, state Rep. Regina Thomas, from 2008, whom he defeated by 52 points then. Thomas used his vote against health care in this heavily African-American district, but, in the end, it wasn’t enough.

    In the attorney general’s race that featured an explosive but factually misleading ad against former prosecutor Ken Hodges, Hodges won easily with 65% of the vote over state Rep. Rob Teilhet (35%).

    “In a surprise Tuesday, the former chief of staff to retiring Rep. John Linder (R-Ga.) finished first in a crowded Republican primary, but it wasn't enough to avoid an August runoff,” The Hill notes. “Rob Woodall won 37 percent of the vote with radio host Jody Hice coming in second at 26 percent. State Rep. Clay Cox won't even make it into the August runoff finishing third with 20 percent of the vote. Cox was considered the frontrunner in the 7th District, though most observers thought a runoff was likely. Cox was a favorite of Tea Party groups in the state and had the backing of the state's GOP establishment including Gov. Sonny Perdue and state House Speaker David Ralston.”

    Here are results for all the races from the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

  • Conservative blogs mum on Tea Party Caucus

    As NBC's Luke Russert reports, the Tea Party caucus holds its first meeting tomorrow. But you might not have known that if you read only conservative blogs today.

    Bloggers on the right are quick to celebrate their preferred candidates in primary races. A quick scan shows posts in recent days supporting Republican Senate candidate Roy Blunt, IL-17's Bobby Schilling, NC-7's Ilario Pantano and OK-5's Kevin Calvey.

    But conservative blogs are far more loathe to recognize the Tea Party's recent assimilation into the very institution its candidates are seeking to shake up, and in many cases are running explicitly against: Capitol Hill.

    In fact, one of the only mentions today of the Tea Party caucus is one of concern, from NRO's Kathryn Jean Lopez, whose piece "Institutionalizing the Tea" suggests that the very organization of the Tea Party could lead to its undoing.

    "House freshman Republican Jason Chaffetz of Utah — rumored to be a right-wing challenger to Orrin Hatch in 2012 — tells me he is outright 'opposed' to the existence of a tea-party caucus in the House," Lopez wrote. “'The more you try to put structure around the tea-party, the more compromised it will become,' Chaffetz told Lopez.

    "Chaffetz’s comments reflect an overall confusion among conservatives on the Hill this morning, unclear about the need for the caucus, given that both the Republican Study Committee and the leadership have been open to and encouraging of tea parties (remember the tea parties on the Hill?).

    "Records and leadership and agenda-setting should be the tests, not box-checking memberships," she continued.

    But Lopez checked her fear by describing the conditions in which the new doesn't damage the Tea Party Cause: "As long as joining it doesn’t become a litmus test, one more group on the Hill hailing the Constitution and liberty can’t be a bad thing," she wrote.

    A day before the House Administration Committee approved the Tea Party Caucus' existence, Red State blogger Erick Erickson's post on Sunday further crystallized the rift between establishment Republicans and Tea Partiers in a post titled, "Senate Republicans to Tea Party Activists: Go To H - E - Double Hockeysticks."

    Erickson wrote, "One of the good old boys of the club who can speak freely because he’s on the outside lobbying in now is the former leader of the Senate Republicans, Trent Lott."

    He posted Lott's statement that "“As soon as [Tea Partiers] get here, we need to co-opt them," but that he still has "faith in the visceral judgment of the American people" that the Tea Party will not be elected in large enough numbers to threaten non-Tea Party Republicans.

    Erickson did, however, tout NRSC Chairman John Cornyn's statement, back from a fundraising trip in Colorado, that "The candidates are not ours to choose... They're the choice of the primary voters in the states, and I think we should respect their choices."

    Note, however, Cornyn's verbal distancing from the Tea Party, making and "us" and "them" distinction between the Republican Senate campaign committee's choices and those of Tea Party supporters.

  • Four things to watch in Georgia primaries

    As polls head toward closing in Georgia (they close at 7:00 pm ET), here are four things to watch as results roll in:

    • 1. The power of Sarah Palin in GOP primaries. She has singlehandedly transformed the Republican gubernatorial race.
    • 2. The power of the black vote, which could make up more than half of the electorate in a Georgia Democratic primary for the first time.
    • 3. Can voting against the Obama agenda hurt conservative Democrats?
    • 4. Do facts or emotion matter more in TV ads?

    For more on those, click here.

  • Cameron: No Lockerbie inquiry

    From NBC's Ali Weinberg
    British Prime Minister David Cameron said the Scottish government "had no business" releasing the Lockerbie bomber from prison, but said that he would not stage an inquiry into British Petroleum's involvement in Abdelbaset Ali al-Megrahi's return to his native Libya.

    Standing next to President Obama during the leaders' first joint press conference, Cameron also urged against prejudging BP's interference in the case, stressing the company's job-creating role in his country and his host's.

    "BP is an important company to both the British and the American economies. Thousands of jobs on both sides of the Atlantic depend on it, so it's in the interests of both our countries as we agreed that it remains a strong and stable company in the future," Cameron said.

    According to AP reports, approximately 18 million Britons hold shares in BP in one form or another, many through their pension funds.

    "And let us not confuse the oil spill with the Libyan bomber," Cameron added, expressing his desire not to see BP blamed for an undue share of the world's ills.

    Cameron also said that he would order his cabinet secretary to review any still-unpublished British documents that might shed more light on whether BP specifically lobbied the Scottish government on al-Megrahi's behalf to maintain commercial ties with Libya.

    He said he wasn't "currently minded" to hold a British inquiry into the case. "I think publishing this information combined with the inquiry that's already been hold will give people the certainty they need about the circumstances surrounding this decision," he said.

    President Obama sidestepped a question as to whether he would like to see a Congressional investigation of the circumstances surrounding the bomber's release, instead deferring to his British counterpart.

    "I think the key thing to understand here is we've got a British prime minister who shares our anger over the decision, who also objects to how it played out, and so I'm fully supportive of Prime Minister Cameron's efforts to gain a better understanding of it," Obama said.

    The press conference came just hours after the two leaders met privately for a working lunch. Besides BP, one of the other issues discussed was the war in Afghanistan. Britain has 10,000 troops in Afghanistan, but Cameron has indicated that he wants all soldiers to be gone by 2015.

    The leaders seemed to reflect a difference of opinion on dealing with the Taliban, with President Obama expressing a far more aggressive stance than Cameron, despite a report in the British newspaper The Guardian today saying that the White House is considering negotiating with senior Taliban members.

    "We're going to break the Taliban's momentum," Obama said.

    Cameron took a more conciliatory tone. "To those people currently fighting, if they give up violence, if they cut themselves off from Al-Qaeda, if they accept the basic tenants of the Afghan constitution, they can have a future in a peaceful Afghanistan," he said.

  • Bachmann-chaired 'Tea Party' Caucus holds first meeting tomorrow


    Tomorrow the House "Tea Party" Caucus chaired by Rep. Michelle Bachmann (R-MN) will hold its first meeting.

    The caucus has presented a sort of conundrum for many Republicans. While they want to tap into the energy and excitement that the Tea Party brings, they would rather not deal with some of the out of the mainstream positions that come along with some in the Tea Party.

    GOP members are now in the process of deciding whether or not they will join the Tea Party Caucus.

    Prominent GOP-ers who have joined the Tea Party Caucus so far:

    • GOP Conference Chairman Mike Pence (R-IN)
    • NRCC Chairman Pete Sessions (R-TX)
    • Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R-MI) -- the ranking member on the Select Committee on Intelligence who is also running for governor of Michigan

    Prominent GOP-ers who have declined invitations so far:

    • Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH)
    • Minority Whip Eric Cantor (R-VA)

    Bachmann did not bother to inform the GOP leadership that she was going to start the Tea Party Caucus. GOP leadership aides have strongly hinted to NBC News that they were less than pleased at its creation.

    THE TEA PARTY CAUCUS PRESS RELEASE:

    Tea Party Caucus to Hold First Meeting Tomorrow

    (Washington, D.C.) On Wednesday, July 21, the newly formed Tea Party Caucus will be holding its first meeting at 9:00 AM ET. Members of the Caucus will hear from a handful of Americans about how the current economic environment and policies of Congress are impacting their families and businesses.

    Following the Caucus meeting, a press conference will be held at 10 AM located at the House Triangle with guests and Members of Congress.

    The Caucus meeting itself will be Members only, and media are encouraged to attend the press conference that follows.

    The Tea Party Caucus was formed to bring Members' attention to the cries of everyday Americans who are calling for fiscal responsibility, adherence to the Constitution, and limited government.

    NOTE: Steny Hoyer (D-MD) had the following to say about the Tea Party today:

    "The Tea Party per se I don't think is racist."

    "There are obviously, as I said on Sunday, I have seen some virulent racist tracks which I believe are harmful to the public discourse and inconsistent with Americans values. You would have to ask the Tea Party whether they agree with those or not. I mean I don't know who the tea party is number one. You know, the answer to that question is I think that Joe Biden essentially said the same thing in a different, slightly different way. I don't have any reason to believe the Tea Party itself is racist."

    When asked his feelings about the newly formed tea party caucus he said, "We'll see how many of the Republicans join the Tea Party Caucus and see whether or not they want to adopt the Tea Party Agenda."

  • Jobless benefits extension reaches cloture


    The Senate has reached cloture on the unemployment insurance benefits extension. The vote was 60 to 40. When the newly sworn-in Sen. Goodwin of WV voted, members applauded on the floor.

    *** UPDATE *** NBC's Ken Strickland reports on how Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid secured the 60 votes needed to break the filibuster on the bill. Maine Republican Sens. Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe voted with Democrats; Democrat Ben Nelson (NE), however, voted with Republicans.

    We're still awaiting word on when the Senate will vote to pass the bill. More than likely it should happen later today. Passage only requires a simple majority vote.

    The bill then will move to the House.

  • The (Senate) Replacements

    AP

    Carte Goodwin is Gov. Joe Manchin's appointee to the late U.S. Sen. Robert Byrd's seat.

    Since the Seventeenth Amendment to the Constitution was ratified nearly 100 years ago, Americans have directly elected the two U.S. senators from their home state by popular vote.

    Except when they haven't.

    At this moment, residents of five states – well over 50 million Americans – are partly represented in the Senate by a lawmaker who has never won a Senate election. At 2:15pm ET today, when Carte Goodwin is sworn in as the next senator from the state of West Virginia, that number will increase by another 1.8 million citizens.

    Each of the current unelected senators was appointed by his or her states’ governor to fill a vacancy in the wake of a senator’s departure due to death, early retirement, or departure for another job in government. Goodwin of West Virginia will join Sens. Roland Burris of Illinois, Kirsten Gillibrand of New York, Michael Bennet of Colorado, Ted Kaufman of Delaware, and George LeMieux of Florida on the list of this year’s appointees. Former Sen. Paul Kirk, D-Mass., served for less than four months before being replaced by Sen. Scott Brown, who won a January special election to replace the late Sen. Ted Kennedy.

    Appointments are not unusual. According to Senate Historian Don Ritchie, there have been 188 appointments to the Senate since 1913. The current Congress’s seven appointments isn’t even close to the record: During the 79th Congress, between 1945-47, a total of 14 senators were appointed.

    Many one-time appointees went on to famed careers in the Senate. Sen. Sam Ervin of North Carolina, appointed in 1954, chaired the Senate committee that investigated the Watergate scandal that toppled Richard Nixon’s presidency. Sen. Ted Stevens of Alaska, appointed in 1968, exited Congress as one of of the longest-serving senators in history when he was defeated for re-election 40 years later.

    Still, some observers and lawmakers are raising alarms about several recent appointments, which have bred political squabbling and – in the case of the appointment of a new Illinois senator by former Gov. Rod Blagojevich – criminal allegations. Blagojevich is accused of attempting to sell the Senate seat vacated by President Barack Obama to the highest bidder.

    “The way some of these situations were handled was alarmingly undemocratic and included behind-the-scenes deal-making that left voters out in the cold,” Sen. Russ Feingold, D-Wisc., said bluntly last year.

    Less extreme than Blagojevich’s high-profile corruption case, but still troubling to reform-minded lawmakers like Feingold, is the perception that appointees are merely keeping the seats warm for future candidates.

    Over the last 100 years, over 60 percent of appointed senators have chosen to run for a full term in that seat. (Their success rate isn’t stellar, however. Only half of those candidates won their bids, compared to the three-quarters of all Senate incumbents who won re-election over the same period of time.)

    But of the seven senators appointed in this session of Congress, only two are expected to even try to keep their jobs.

    Goodwin is not one of them. Soon to be the newest U.S. senator, Goodwin was tapped by West Virginia Gov. Joe Manchin to fill the seat left empty when Democrat Robert Byrd died earlier this year. The 36-year-old former Manchin aide has said he won't run for the seat, and his onetime boss announced today that he will himself seek it this fall.

    Republican George LeMieux of Florida was similarly chosen by a former employer now angling for a run at his job. Gov. Charlie Crist is now running as an independent for the same seat he gave LeMieux, his former chief of staff, in August 2009.

    It’s worth noting that so-dubbed “seat warming” is also not a new phenomenon. Sen. Ted Kennedy was too young to step into his brother’s Senate seat when John F. Kennedy won the presidency in 1960, so family friend Benjamin Smith II took over the seat for two years until the young Kennedy was eligible to run in the special election.

    Appointing the widow of a male senator who has died in office has also been a fairly common practice.

    Feingold, whose home state of Wisconsin is one of a handful that does not allow gubernatorial appointments, hopes to one day overhaul the appointment system, which he says “undermines representative government.”

    He has proposed a constitutional amendment that would mandate special elections in the wake of Senate vacancies.

    The amendment has bipartisan support, with co-sponsorship fromRepublican Sen. John McCain of Arizona and Democrat Sen. Mark Begich of Alaska, but it has been stalled in the Senate Judiciary Committee since last year. And passing a constitutional amendment is a very heavy lift; it would require the approval of two-thirds of both houses of Congress as well as three-fourths of state legislatures.

  • Graham joins panel's Dems to approve Kagan

    Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina on Tuesday voted in favor of the nomination of Supreme Court nominee Elena Kagan, making him the only GOP member of the Senate Judiciary Committee to back Obama’s pick for the high court.

    The panel, made up of 12 Democrats and seven Republicans, approved Kagan’s nomination by a vote of 13-6. Every Democrat on the panel supported her, while every Republican other than Graham opposed her. The nomination will go to a full Senate vote within the next few weeks.

    "At the end of the day, after the hearing, it was not a hard decision for me to make," Graham said in announcing his decision. "I thought she did a very good job and she will serve this nation honorably. And it would not have been someone I would have chosen, but the person who did choose, President Obama, I think chose wisely."

    Graham repeatedly noted areas of ideological disagreement between himself and the nominee, emphasizing that she is "a liberal."

    But, he said Kagan had met the Constitutional requirements to warrant his support. "Is the person qualified? Is it a person of good character? Are they someone that understands the difference between being a judge and a politician?" he said. "Quite frankly, I think she's passed all those tests."

    Graham also addressed one of the main GOP arguments against her nomination: Kagan's decision as Harvard Law School dean to prohibit military recruiters from using a campus career center on the basis that the "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" policy barring openly gay men and women from serving in the military violated the school's anti-discrimination rules.

    "If I believed that she had animosity in her heart about those who wear the uniform, I could easily vote no," Graham said. "I don't believe that."

    He was the only Republican member of the committee to support nominee Sonia Sotomayor in 2009.

    Minutes before Graham’s statement of support, his office released a letter from Kagan to the South Carolina lawmaker praising her friend and former law school classmate Miguel Estrada. Estrada’s nomination to the federal bench by President George W. Bush was blocked by Democrats in the Senate in 2003.

    The senior Republican on the committee, Sen. Jeff Sessions, R-Ala., formally announced his opposition to Kagan’s nomination in a USA Today op-ed earlier Tuesday.

    “Throughout her career, Ms. Kagan has placed her politics above the law," Sessions wrote. “She has never been a judge, never tried a case before a jury and has practiced law for only three years. She is the least experienced nominee in the last half-century.”

    *** UPDATE *** President Obama hailed the committee's vote in a written statement:

    Elena Kagan is one of this country's leading legal minds, and has shown throughout this process that, if confirmed, she would be a fair and impartial Supreme Court Justice who understands how decisions made by the Court affect the lives of everyday Americans. Today's vote by the Senate Judiciary Committee is a bipartisan affirmation of her strong performance during her confirmation hearings. I want to thank the Judiciary Committee for giving her a thorough, timely and respectful hearing, and I look forward to the full Senate taking up and voting on this nomination before the August recess.

  • A liberated Charlie Crist

    Don't miss today's Wall Street Journal profile of Charlie Crist, which lists his various -- depending on your point of view -- policy shifts or flip-flops. "It's liberating," Crist said of running as an independent, rather than in primary chock-full of the most ideological voters. "It's a lot of fun, and I'm convinced it's what the people want."

    More from the article:

    Mr. Crist this year vetoed an education bill and an abortion bill sent to him by the legislature, which won him praise from many teachers and liberal women's groups. Now, in calling a special legislative session to discuss a state-constitution ban on oil drilling in state waters, he is gambling that voters will see him as protecting Florida's tourism industry in the aftermath of the Gulf oil spill... Mr. Crist's opponents note that he was open to considering offshore drilling as recently as 2009.

    [snip]

    Mr. Crist has made other policy shifts. Despite pledging as a Republican to help repeal President Obama's health-care overhaul, Mr. Crist now says he does not support such a move. He has long called himself "pro-life," doing so even in the interview last week. He is now quick to add that while he personally opposes abortion, he would not seek to overturn Roe v. Wade and supports abortion rights.

    He came out last year in opposition to the Supreme Court nomination of Justice Sonia Sotomayor, but now says that he "probably" took that position because he felt pressure from the GOP primary. Asked if he felt differently now, he said: "Perhaps."

    "I want to do what is in my heart," Mr. Crist said last week. "But other influences have some effect, to a degree."

    And then there's this:

    Mr. Crist said he had spoken twice in recent weeks with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. The governor said he had not offered any assurances that he would caucus with the Democrats as an independent, but the discussions with Mr. Reid signal that he may be moving in that direction.

  • First thoughts: A busy midsummer day

    On this busy midsummer day, the Senate Judiciary Committee meets to vote on the Kagan nomination at 10:00 am ET… Also at 10:00 am, Joe Manchin is expected to announce his Senate bid… British PM David Cameron meets with Obama and holds joint presser at 2:00 pm… Dems appear to have their 60 votes to clear GOP filibuster on extending the unemployment benefits without deficit reduction… Primary Day in Georgia; polls close at 7:00 pm… Blunt targets Carnahan -- and Obama -- in new TV ad… Why open seats matter… And profiling the first of our 75 House races to watch: AL-2.


    *** A busy midsummer day: Where to begin on this busy midsummer day -- the Senate vote extending unemployment benefits, the Judiciary Committee vote on Elena Kagan’s SCOTUS nomination, Joe Manchin’s likely announcement that he’ll run for the Senate, David Cameron’s visit to D.C., or tonight’s primaries in Georgia? We’ll start chronologically. At 10:00 am ET, per NBC’s Ken Strickland, the Senate Judiciary Committee will meet to vote on Kagan’s Supreme Court nomination. (Note: The vote won’t happen right at 10:00 am; it’s just when the session starts). Democrats have a 12-7 edge on the committee, so Kagan’s passage is a sure thing. The only drama will be to see if Sen. Lindsey Graham will be the sole GOP vote for Kagan -- as was the case for Sonia Sotomayor.

    *** Manchin is running. What about Shelley Moore Capito? Also at 10:00 am, West Virginia Gov. Joe Manchin is set to announce his intention for a possible bid for Robert Byrd’s Senate seat. This announcement comes after the state legislature passed legislation yesterday clearing the way for a special election for the seat for Nov. 2 (and primaries for Aug. 28). And get this: “The law makes way for [Republican] Rep. Shelley Moore Capito to run for the Senate seat and for reelection to her House seat if she wants,” Politico writes. “Moore Capito is expected to announce whether she will run later this week… The filing deadline for the special election is this Friday at 5 PM.” Moore's calculation is more than just dealing with the possibility of losing to Manchin; she may have to worry about a contested primary. It's not as easy of a decision as it may look to some non-West Virginian political junkies.

    *** David Cameron comes to town: At 11:00 am, President Obama holds a bilateral discussion at the White House with new British Prime Minister David Cameron. At 12:20 pm, the two men -- along with Vice President Biden -- have a working lunch. And then, at 2:00 pm, Obama and Cameron hold a joint press conference. Expect the BP/Lockerbie news to dominate Cameron’s visit. Cameron will also meet with Senate leaders, specifically dealing with the concerns of the New York/New Jersey senators regarding the early release of the Lockerbie bomber.

    *** Breaking the filibuster: At the same time that Obama and Cameron will be talking to reporters, the Senate will be working to clear a GOP filibuster on extending the unemployment benefits. At 2:15 pm, Strickland says new (and temporary) West Virginia Sen. Carte Goodwin will be sworn in, giving Democrats their 60 votes to break the filibuster. (All 59 Dem senators, minus Ben Nelson, are expected to vote for cloture, in addition to the two Maine Republicans.) At 2:30 pm, the Senate will vote to break the filibuster. Strick then says that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Minority Leader McConnell have to negotiate when to schedule the vote for final passage of the UI bill. If the leaders play nice, the vote on passage will more then likely happen later in the afternoon or in the evening. Then, per NBC’s Luke Russert, House will take up the legislation on Wednesday. Once it’s passed, it will go to Obama’s desk for his signature. This unemployment benefits extension lasts through November; White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs hinted the president might ask for another extension if the unemployment rate in November is still above 9%.

    *** The night the lights went out in Georgia: All it seemingly took was an endorsement by Sarah Palin -- via Facebook no less -- that vaulted former Secretary of State Karen Handel into the lead in today’s Georgia’s GOP gubernatorial primary. Before the endorsement, Handel was in second place in the Mason-Dixon poll, trailing front-runner Ken Oxendine by eight points (31%-28%); now, she’s leading him by seven (29%-22%). Assuming that no one reaches 50%, the top-two finishers in this seven-candidate field -- which also includes former Rep. Nathan Deal -- will compete in an Aug. 10 run-off. On the Democratic side, former Gov. Roy Barnes is the favorite in an equally crowded primary that also includes state Attorney General Thurbert Baker. Privately, Republicans outside of Georgia are hopeful Oxendine has a weak showing in the primary; his nomination is the one many GOPers fear the most. As for Barnes, to avoid a runoff while running against the state's highest-ranking African-American elected official (Baker) would be astounding. Polls close at 7:00 pm ET.

    *** Caveat on the 'Palin Effect': If Handel ends up winning the GOP nomination, she’d be the second female that a Palin endorsement would have catapulted into the gubernatorial spotlight, joining South Carolina’s Nikki Haley. As the New York Times’ Zeleny wrote of Palin: “That she is leaving a major footprint on the 2010 midterm elections is not disputed, but less clear is whether the endorsements are rooted in an effort to amplify her image or to create a political strategy for the future.” Also less clear is her impact on races beyond GOP primaries. Indeed, our June NBC/WSJ poll found that her endorsement could be toxic in a general election: Just 25% said they were enthusiastic or comfortable with a candidate endorsed by Palin, while 52% said they had reservations or were very uncomfortable with that attribute. Refudiate that…

    *** Down the ballot in Georgia: One congressional primary to watch is the Dem race in the 12th district. Rep. John Barrow faces Regina Thomas, a former state senator. Barrow has the money advantage, but Georgia political watchers are not writing off Thomas, who is black and well known in this district. Also, the attorney general's race is drawing attention because of what may be the most emotional and controversial TV ad this cycle. In it, a mother whose son was shot by police accuses candidate and prosecutor Ken Hodges (D) of not getting an indictment on the officer, because he "forgot to swear him in, tried to hide the video and then refused to reopen the case. I could never get an answer why." The teary-eyed mom concludes, "Mr. Hodges should not be our next attorney general." The ad, run by Democratic state Rep. Rob Teilhet, has caused a shake-up in the race. The Hodges campaign has called it unfair and untrue, and an independent fact-checker rated Teilhet's claim that Hodges botched the case as "false."

    *** Blunt vs. Carnahan and Obama: Meanwhile, in Missouri, likely GOP Senate nominee Roy Blunt is going up with a TV ad aimed at both Robin Carnahan -- and President Obama, Politico reports. The ad features Obama’s comment at a fundraiser for Carnahan earlier this month that Carnahan winning would give him another vote in the Senate. It concludes, “Roy Blunt -- he’ll work for Missouri, not Barack Obama.” This is a significant development in the national electoral landscape for this reason: It's the most direct anti-Obama message we've seen made by a Republican running in a general election in a swing state. Now, that said, Blunt is trying to appeal to primary voters a tad right now. But if this ad against Carnahan, using Obama, does raise the Democrat's negatives, don't be surprised if it gets copied by GOP candidates across the country. This is an interesting test to keep an eye on.

    *** Why open seats matter: Bloomberg News has a great take on the second-quarter fundraising, noting that House GOP candidates running in competitive OPEN seats have a clear advantage over their Democratic counterparts. But the vast majority of House Democratic incumbents have a financial advantage over their GOP challengers. This is why open seats matter, and why the relatively few number of Dem open seats is yet another difference why this might not be 1994. By the way, the Rothenberg Political Report now projects Republicans picking up 28-33 seats. They need 39 to take back control of the House.

    *** A friendly warning: A warning about all the focus on a new tracking poll showing Democrats now leading on the congressional ballot. Live by the daily tracking polls, die by the daily tracking polls. There's a reason we are careful when we discuss even the reputable daily tracking polls because the fluctuations on an even week-to-week basis can make even the smartest political analyst look silly.

    *** 75 House races to watch: Previewing AL-2: With the exception of Labor Day, there are now officially 75 BUSINESS days until Election Day. And beginning today, we will begin profiling (briefly) our 75 House races to watch (approximately 65 Democratic held seats and approximately 10 GOP seats). In alphabetical order, we’re starting with AL-2. The Democratic candidate is Bobby Bright (the one-term incumbent), and his GOP challenger is Martha Roby. McCain got 63% of the vote in this district in ’08, and Bush got 67% in ’04. Bright voted against the stimulus, cap-and-trade, and health care. Bright won by less than 2,000 votes in his 2008 race. This is a Democratic-held seat that many folks believe gets washed away in a wave; it’s all about whether national narrative takes hold in the district.

    Countdown to OK primary: 7 days
    Countdown to KS and MO primaries: 14 days
    Countdown to CO and CT primaries: 21 days
    Countdown to Election Day 2010: 105 days

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  • Congress: UI, Goodwin, Kagan, Clapper

    The New York Daily News: "President Obama and Senate Democrats expect they will have the votes Tuesday to pass an extension of unemployment benefits on the fourth try. The vote is set for shortly after Democrat Carte Goodwin of West Virginia is sworn in to fill the vacancy left by the late Sen. Robert Byrd."

    MSNBC.com's Dann and Miller on today's Kagan Judiciary Committee confirmation vote: "After more than two months in the national spotlight and over 17 hours of grueling committee testimony, Elena Kagan is poised to take one step closer to a permanent seat on the bench of the Supreme Court of the United States." The vote won't be a "nailbiter," they point out, because Democrats control the committee 12-7. How assured has Kagan's nomination been? "One Republican lawmaker, Sen. John Cornyn, even accidentally betrayed the widely-held expectation that she will eventually win confirmation, reportedly referring to the nominee at one point during the hearing process as 'soon-to-be Justice Kagan. '"

    The AP says, "the only real question [on today's Kagan vote] is whether she will get any Republican votes."


    "Tough questions and blunt answers are likely Tuesday when retired Air Force Gen. James T. Clapper goes before the Senate Intelligence Committee seeking confirmation as the next director of national intelligence," the AP writes. "Clapper is expected to explain how he would streamline the massive flow of information from the intelligence community's 16 agencies. He has already answered more than 80 questions from the Intelligence Committee, providing some 90 pages in responses that will be posted to the committee's website at the start of the hearing."

    How this for a make-up session? While campaigning yesterday for a Pennsylvania congressional candidate, Vice President Joe Biden called House Speaker Nancy Pelosi "the most powerful person in American politics -- With the exception of the president of the United States. And I mean that sincerely.” He added, “The single most successful, the single most persuasive, the single most strategic leader I have ever worked with is Nancy Pelosi.” He also called her "the mother of health care."

    The Tea Party now has an official House caucus (seriously.)

  • Obama agenda: London calling

    "On the way to Washington, British Prime Minister David Cameron said he wants to talk about Afghanistan, Middle East peace prospects and the global economy. Everyone else wants to talk about BP," the AP says.

    "A lawyer for Rod Blagojevich said yesterday that the defense plans to call White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel as a witness in the ousted Illinois governor’s corruption trial," the AP writes, adding, "A lobbyist testified earlier that Emanuel urged him to make sure Blagojevich knew the president-elect wanted Jarrett to get the Senate seat."

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