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  • NBC/WSJ poll: Obama's standing takes a hit

    Here's the write-up of our full NBC/WSJ poll:

    Two months of oil continuing to gush from a well off the Gulf Coast, as well as an unemployment rate still near 10 percent, have taken a toll on President Barack Obama and his standing with the American public, according to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

    For the first time in the survey, more disapprove of his job performance than approve; for the first time in his presidency, more than 60 percent believe the country is on the wrong track; and as he relieves Gen. Stanley McChrystal of his command in Afghanistan, Obama’s scores on being able to handle a crisis and on being decisive have plummeted since last year.

    This is a president who has been bruised and bloodied by the events of the past few months, although not yet knocked down, say the Democratic and Republican pollsters who conducted the survey.

    “There is just no way that an American president is not going to see his job rating affected” after these events, observed GOP pollster Bill McInturff. “The little faint signs [of improvement] we were seeing in April and May have been squished by two months of this story in the Gulf.”

    Added Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart: “These numbers aren’t good. But they are far from awful.”

    Obama’s declining numbers
    In the poll, Obama’s job-approval rating stands at 45 percent, which is down five points from early last month and down three points from late May.

    Forty-eight percent in the current survey say they disapprove of his job performance.
    What’s more, Obama’s favorable/unfavorable rating is now at 47 percent to 40 percent, down from 49 percent to 38 percent in early May and 52 percent to 35 percent in January.

    His scores on other ascpects of the presidency also have declined. In April 2009, 54 percent gave the president high marks for being able to handle a crisis; now it’s 40 percent.

    In July 2009, 57 percent gave him high marks for being decisive and for his decision-making; now it’s 44 percent.

    And also in July 2009, 61 percent gave him high marks for having strong leadership qualities; now it’s 49 percent.

    A silver lining for Obama is that his personal scores are still strong: 64 percent give him high marks for being easygoing and likeable, and 51 percent give him high marks for being compassionate enough to understand average people.

    Yet those percentages, too, are down from last year.

    “On the personal level,” says Hart, the Democratic pollster, “the public still stays with him.”

    Show more
  • NBC/WSJ poll: GOP retains midterm advantage


    According to the new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, the Republican Party still appears to have the edge heading into November.

    Forty-five percent prefer a GOP-controlled Congress after this year’s elections, compared with 43 percent who want a Democratic-controlled Congress.

    This is the GOP’s second-straight lead on this generic-ballot question, which hasn’t occurred since 2002.

    “The Republican Party has a major advantage in the fall, and this poll just reconfirms that,” says Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart, who conducted this poll with GOP pollster Bill McInturff.

    Moreover, 32 percent say their vote this November will be a signal of opposition to President Obama, versus 27 percent who say it will be a signal of support for him. That’s a reversal from January, when 37 percent said their vote would be in support for the president, while 27 percent said it would be in opposition.

    That said, Obama’s numbers here don’t compare to George W. Bush’s before the 2006 midterms, when 37 percent said their vote would be in opposition to Bush, versus 22 percent who said it would be in support.

    The full poll -- which was conducted June 17-20 of 1,000 adults (200 by cell phone), and which has an overall margin of error of plus-minus 3.1 percentage points -- will be released at 6:30 pm ET.

  • South Carolina, political phoenix?

    State Rep. Tim Scott is one of the South Carolina Republicans leading a potential power surge in the Palmetto State.


    Has any state gone from national punch line to potential political powerhouse any faster than South Carolina appears poised to do?

    There’s been no shortage of bizarre and plain ugly behavior flowing out of the Palmetto State in the past year. You all know the litany: Gov. Mark Sanford’s Appalachian Trail adventure that led to an Argentine mistress and a very public and uncomfortable divorce; the nomination of the unknown and still-mysterious Alvin Greene as the Democratic Senate nominee; the head-scratching allegations of infidelity leveled against state Rep. Nikki Haley and the flat-out racist comments directed at her heritage.

    No wonder the state earned the dubious honor of being tabbed the “stink hole” of Republican politics.

    Suddenly, the day after runoffs in the state set the table for November’s elections, South Carolina appears to be on the brink of becoming one of the most visible, and important, GOP political power centers in the nation.


    Haley’s easy victory over Rep. Graham Barrett (and, really, the state’s GOP establishment) has already launched her into a national star. Should she win, and she will be the favorite, Haley will become a critical voice in the GOP -- a governor outside of Washington who will have a huge voice in the party’s agenda going forward. More importantly, she will be courted relentlessly by those presidential candidates for the always-crucial South Carolina primary in 2012.

    State Rep. Tim Scott looks to be on the road to becoming the first black Republican in the Congress since J.C. Watts in 2002 and the first from the Deep South since Reconstruction. On top of it all, Scott defeated the son of one-time segregationist Strom Thurmond to win the nomination. Scott will be favored this fall and, should he win, will be a high-profile newcomer to Washington in a party always anxious to show its diversity.

    Less noticed in the election results is the growing list of successful conservative candidates backed by South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint, who’s become D.C.’s Godfather of the Tea Party movement -- or at least the anti-Washington movement, despite his perch as an incumbent senator.

    DeMint’s candidates have knocked down establishment-backed favorites in several high-profile primary contests -- Rand Paul in Kentucky, Sharron Angle in Nevada, and Mike Lee in Utah yesterday. In Florida, DeMint was an early backer of Marco Rubio before Gov. Charlie Crist bolted to run as an independent. And, in Colorado, DeMint-backed Ken Buck is leading former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton in some -- though considered to be less reliable -- polls.

    Lee is very likely to win this fall, and if he’s joined by some of these other anti-establishment Republicans, DeMint would have quite the little conservative base in the U.S. Senate, making South Carolina a powerful state in GOP politics.

  • What Petraeus can look forward to

    A report released Monday night by the House Oversight and Government Reform national security subcommittee reveals that American taxpayer dollars are being spent on protection payments to Afghani warlords.

    The report, "Warlord, Inc.: Extortion and Corruption Along the U.S. Supply Chain in Afghanistan," details how Pentagon contractors Host Nation Trucking subcontract to militia leaders in order to secure the swift and unhampered movement of American and NATO convoys through hazardous terrain. But as Rep. John Tierney (D- MA) writes in the introduction, "This arrangement has fueled a vast protection racket run by a shadowy network of warlords, strongmen, commanders [and] corrupt Afghan officials."

    He added, "Not only does the system run afoul of the Department's own rules and regulations mandated by Congress. It also appears to risk undermining the U.S. strategy for achieving its goals in Afghanistan."

    By paying protection fees, the contractors give these warlords a reason to maintain private armies, fuel corruption and ultimately undermine America's efforts to build a strong Afghani government. In addition, the protection money paid from the Pentagon's $2.16 billion contract is a "potential source of funding for the Taliban."

    According to the report, the contractors regularly informed military officials of their fears that they were inadvertently fueling insurgents -- concerns that "were largely met with indifference and inaction."

    Here's the Washington Post's report. And here's Newsweek's.

  • 'Stars and Stripes' on McChrystal: 'BOOTED'


    Another screaming Stars and Stripes, a U.S. military newspaper, headline will greet troops in Iraq and Afghanistan tomorrow morning:

    "BOOTED: Obama relieves McChrystal of command; Petraeus to take over."

    Stars and Stripes is the primary source of news for troops in Iraq and Afghanistan, according to the paper's Senior Managing Editor Howard Witt.

    The circulation is about 90,000, about 80 percent of which goes to troops on the frontlines in Afghanistan and Iraq.

  • Obama nominates Petraeus to lead in Afghanistan

    AP

    From left are, Joint Chiefs Chairman Adm. Mike Mullen, Vice President Joe Biden, the president, Petraeus, and Defense Secretary Robert Gates.


    In a decision he said was necessary to sustain "unity of effort" and meet the objectives in a country where American troops have been battling for nine years, President Obama nominated Gen. David Petraeus to lead the war effort in Afghanistan.

    Petraeus, currently commander of U.S. Central Command and formerly the commander of the coalition effort in Iraq, replaces Gen. Stanley McChrystal, just one day after a Rolling Stone Magazine profile created a firestorm by quoting McChrystal and his aides criticizing and mocking high level administration officials like Obama, Vice President Joe Biden, National Security Adviser Gen. Jim Jones and others.

    "All Americans should be grateful for Gen. McChrystal's remarkable career in uniform," the president told reporters gathered in the Rose Garden. "But war is bigger than any one man or woman, whether a private, a general or a president. As difficult as it is to lose Gen. McChrystal, I believe it is a the right decision for our national security."


    Obama was joined at the announcement by Petraeus, Biden, Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Adm. Mike Mullen.

    Calling it his duty to "ensure that no diversion complicates the vital mission" in Afghanistan, the president said McChrystal's conduct had not met the standard that should be set by a commanding general, undermined the civilian control of the military at the core of America's democratic system and had eroded the trust necessary for the team to achieve its objectives in the country. Obama said replacing McChrystal with Petraeus would allow the U.S.-led effort to "maintain the momentum and leadership that we need to succeed."

    Obama met with McChrystal for 30 minutes in the Oval Office this morning, before holding a larger meeting on Afghanistan and Pakistan in the Situation Room with his entire national security team. McChrystal had been called back from Kabul to speak directly to the president. He had been included on the list of expected attendees at the larger meeting, but he was seen departing the White House shortly after his conversation with the president ended.

    The president said McChrystal was someone he had come to respect and admire and that he accepted the general's resignation with "considerable regret." He also made a point of saying the change in personnel was not a done "out of any sense of personal insult."

    At a time when coalition forces in Afghanistan are struggling to win over the hearts and minds of locals who've suffered under some three decades of war and U.S. and allied troops are trying to solidify hard-fought gains in one Taliban stronghold and preparing for extensive operations in another, the president reaffirmed the nation's mission in the country.

    "I just told my national security team that now is the time for all of us to come together, doing so is not an option, but an obligation," Obama said, adding that while he welcomes debate on his team, he will not tolerate division. "Make no mistake, we have a clear goal: we are going to break the Taliban's momentum, we are going to build Afghan capacity, we are going to relentlessly apply pressure on Al Qaeda and its leadership, strengthening the ability of both Afghanistan and Pakistan to do the same."

    The president said he was "extraordinarily grateful" that Petraeus had agreed to serve and noted that he supported and helped design the strategy now in place in Afghanistan.

    "I say to the American people, this is a change in personnel, but it is not a change in policy," Obama said. "He has worked closely with the Afghan and Pakistan governments and with all our partners in the region. He has my full confidence and I am urging the Senate to confirm him for this new assignment as swiftly as possible."

    After his roughly eight minutes of remarks, the president left the podium, ignoring a shouted question about whether the war in Afghanistan could be won, a question war critics have been raising since before Obama's December announcement of a surge of some 30,000 troops into the country.

  • In lieu of appeal, Obama admin. to issue new oil drill ban


    After yesterday vowing to seek an appeal quickly, administration officials now say the Justice Department will refrain from any legal action in response to yesterday's court order that temporarily blocks the Interior Department's moratorium on offshore drilling.

    The plan now is for the government to seek a new moratorium, doing so in a way that avoids some of the legal problems identified by the judge who issued yesterday's injunction. For example, the judge chided the Interior Department for claiming that a panel of outside experts had endorsed the moratorium issued in late May, when, in fact, they favored something less sweeping.

    Once the Interior Department issues its new moratorium, the government fully expects another legal challenge and very likely another court order blocking it. But on the second round, with a modified moratorium, the Justice Department believes it would be on firmer ground to seek an appeal.


    Yesterday, the federal judge who temporarily blocked the government's moratorium on deepwater drilling was harshly critical of the Obama administration in his 22-page legal opinion, both on how the halt to drilling was conceived and on what effect it would have in Gulf states. The flavor of Judge Martin Feldman's order is captured in a single footnote. It quotes from an Interior Department report, which said the BP oil disaster was "commanding the Department of Interior's resources." He adds, "A disturbing admission by this Administration."

    The judge notes that the moratorium was first proposed in a report by Interior Secretary Ken Salazar, issued in late May. It called for a six-month moratorium on permits for new wells being drilled using floating rigs. Such a conclusion, the report said, was peer-reviewed by a panel of outside experts. But that statement, Judge Feldman wrote, was a misrepresentation, because the experts "envisioned a more limited kind of moratorium."

    The judge chided the administration for glossing over the difference between the dangers of drilling in up to 500 feet of water compared to drilling in depths of 1,000 feet or more.

    "The court is unable to divine or fathom a relationship between the findings and the immense scope of the moratorium," he said. "What seems clear is that the federal government has been pressed by what happened on the Deepwater Horizon into an otherwise sweeping confirmation that all Gulf deepwater drilling activities put us all in a universal threat of irreparable harm."

    He added, "Are all airplanes a danger because one was? All oil tankers like Exxon Valdez? All trains? All mines? That sort of thinking seems heavy-handed, and rather overbearing," he adds. Judge Feldman concludes by accusing the government of underestimating the effect of even a six-month drilling moratorium on the Gulf economy. "It is only a matter of time before more business and jobs and livelihoods will be lost," made worse, he says, by "the movement of the rigs to other sites around the world.

    An Obama administration official had said the government would appeal the judge's order.

    "We will take the legal and administrative steps necessary to ensure that deepwater drilling does not continue until more aggressive safety regulations, containment and clean-up plans are in place," the official said yesterday.

  • Who will be the next CENTCOM commander?


    His seat is still warm, but names are already circulating for who will take over as CENTCOM Commander when Petraeus heads to Afghanistan.

    The front runner for now is Lt. Gen. John Allen, who has been deputy commander of CENTCOM for the past two years. He's a Marine and was recently on a short list to be the next Commandant of the Marine Corps, but he was passed over, because Pentagon leadership thought he would be better as a combatant commander. Now he has that chance.

    At a minimum, he'll be the Acting CENTCOM Commander after Petraeus is confirmed by Capitol Hill.

  • President Clinton cheers on U.S. soccer

    AP

    From left to right: Landon Donovan, whose strike put the U.S. through to the World Cup's round-robin; former President Clinton kicking a ball in South Africa; Clinton looking on during today's match; VP Biden and wife Jill (in red) cheering on the U.S. against England.


    Like much of the rest of the nation, captivated by the U.S. men's soccer team's riveting 1-0 victory over Algeria today, former President Bill Clinton was cheering on the U.S. side. And he was doing it in person. In the final minutes, like the entire U.S. fan base, he was on the edge of his seat.

    Vice President Biden attended the opening ceremony, met with the team, cheered it on during its 1-1 England tie and returned to Washington soon after. Biden certainly has more pressing matters to deal with today with the president's ouster of Gen. McChrystal and replacing him with CENTCOM Commander David Petraeus. McChrystal and his team ridiculed Biden, who voiced his opposition to McChrystal's operation. Biden preferred the war be narrower in scope and more focused on Pakistan.

    The U.S.'s win secures the top spot in Group C. The top two teams qualify from each group for a round-robin, one-loss knockout tournament field of 16.

    The team was minutes from not qualifying before -- in the 91st minute -- midfielder Landon Donovan took a rebound and put it in the back of the net with a low, hard strike. This came after a barrage of offense from the U.S. in a wide-open match that pitted two teams, who needed a win to move through. In a parallel match, England defeated Slovenia 1-0 to also secure a place in the tournament.

    The U.S. will find out its next opponent some time after 4:00 pm ET after the results of the final Group D matches between Germany-Ghana and Serbia-Australia. The U.S., by virtue of its top group finish, would face the second-place team from Group D. Ghana currently leads it, but with a tenuous one-point edge over both Germany and Serbia.

    Wins by Germany and Serbia would send those two through with the U.S. taking on Serbia. A Germany-Ghana tie plus a Serbia win would send Serbia to the top of the group, eliminate Germany and put Ghana in second -- to face the U.S. If Germany wins and Serbia ties, Germany wins the group, Ghana and Serbia would have four points each, and it would come down to goal differential. Currently Ghana is +1 and Serbia is even.

    The winner of that first round U.S. tournament match would face the winner of Uruguay-South Korea.

  • NBC: McChrystal relieved of command


    US sources tell NBC News President Obama has relieved Gen. McChrystal of his command. NBC's Chuck Todd also reports from the White House that President Obama accepted McChrystal's resignation.

    *** UPDATE *** Wires are reporting the president has chosen Gen. David Petraeus to replace McChrystal.

    *** UPDATE 2 *** General McChrystal just released a written statement:

    This morning the President accepted my resignation as Commander of U.S. and NATO Coalition Forces in Afghanistan. I strongly support the President's strategy in Afghanistan and am deeply committed to our coalition forces, our partner nations, and the Afghan people. It was out of respect for this commitment -- and a desire to see the mission succeed -- that I tendered my resignation. It has been my privilege and honor to lead our nation's finest.

  • Haley: Palin gave campaign 'amazing boost'

    Newly minted South Carolina GOP gubernatorial nominee Nikki Haley appeared on MSNBC's Morning Joe this morning to discuss her victory in the state's primary. Asked about the impact that Sarah Palin's endorsement had on her once-longshot campaign, Haley said that the former Alaska governor's backing gave her "an amazing boost and a push of credibility."

    Watch the full interview here:

    Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

  • NBC/WSJ poll: 50% disapprove of Obama on Gulf spill

    AP

    President Barack Obama picks up a "tar ball" during a tour of areas impacted by the Gulf Coast oil spill on May 28, 2010.


    According to the new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, 50 percent of Americans disapprove of President Obama's handling of the oil spill in the Gulf, versus 42 percent who approve of his handling.

    But the public gives him better ratings than it does Congress, the federal government, and BP.

    In the poll, a combined 48 percent believe that Obama has done more or as much as expected in dealing with spill.

    By comparison, however, 39 percent say the same of Congress, 36 percent say that of the federal government (including the Interior Department and the Environmental Protection Agency), and just 27 percent say that of BP.

    The full NBC/WSJ poll -- which was taken June 17-20 of 1,000 adults, and which has an overall margin of error of plus-minus 3.1 percentage points --- will be released at 6:30 pm ET.

  • Joe Barton: Who's sorry now?

    *** UPDATE 2 *** Rep. Barton's communications director reached out to First Read to take responsibility for the Tweet. (See below)


    Rep. Joe Barton infamously apologized to BP last week at a hearing for what he called a White House "shakedown" and infringement of a private company.

    The Texas Republican then apologized for apologizing only after Republican leadership vowed to strip him of his all-important ranking status on the House Energy and Commerce Committee if he refused.

    Today, a "Tweet" of his raises new questions as to just how sorry he is. He wrote: "Joe Barton Was Right," linking to a perspective item written on a blog of the conservative magazine The American Spectator with the same headline.

    (Hat tip: Dave Weigel)

    *** UPDATE *** NBC's Ellie Hall reports that Barton's Tweet has now, in fact, been deleted.

    *** UPDATE 2 *** Rep. Barton's communications director reached out to First Read to take responsibility for the Tweet. Sean Brown writes:

    Since you guys wrote an article about it its morning: I did it!

    Without thinking about it much, I added a headline from one of the daily news clips to a website that is, in turn, linked to the congressman’s Twitter account. Mr. Barton was not aware of the Tweet…

  • Gates, Mullen at White House


    A Pentagon official says that both Secretary Gates and Admiral Mullen are at the White House now.

    After their meeting with Gen. McChrystal, the secretary and joint chiefs chairman met privately for a short time.

    A senior defense official said that after that meeting neither Secretary Gates nor Admiral Mullen knew what McChrystal's fate would be.

  • McChrystal has left the White House

    Read into this what you will, but Gen. McChrystal has left the White House.

    NBC's Athena Jones reports that at 10:25 am, McChrystal was spotted exiting the White House and loading a car -- only about 45 minutes after he first entered the White House.

    NBC's Andrea Mitchell reports on the whereabouts of Afghanistan-Pakistan envoy Richard Holbrooke. He is in Islamabad today, where he met with President Zardari and others. He is scheduled to participate in the 11:30 am ET Af-Pak review by secure video conference from the embassy. Holbrooke was one of those ridiculed by McChrystal in the Rolling Stone piece.

  • The possible McChrystal replacements

    NBC's Athena Jones reports that Gen. McChrystal arrived at the White House at around 9:40 am, about 15 minutes after Vice President Biden.

    Nobody knows yet if President Obama will relieve the general of his duties, but NBC's Courtney Kube reports on some of the potential replacement names floating around the Pentagon -- if Obama does decide to go that route. Even if the president does not decide to let him go, this could be an important group of people to keep an eye on going forward.

    Here are a few possible replacements for General McChrystal that have been floating around the Pentagon this morning:

    Three top options:
    General James Mattis, Marine Corps, Commander of Joint Forces Command
    - General Odierno has been nominated to replace Mattis, but, obviously, has not yet. Mattis was on the very short list to be the next Commandant of the Marine Corps, but was passed over for General Amos several days ago.

    Lieutenant General David Rodriguez, Army, Commander International Security Assistance Force Joint Command
    - He's one of McChrystal's closest advisers and colleagues, and took the helm as the first Commander of IJC last fall. He's also been the Deputy Commander of US Forces Afghanistan since March. He was Gates' senior military assistant before that and was known to have a very good relationship with Gates.

    NOTE: If McChrystal resigns, Rodriguez will likely serve as the interim commander of ISAF, regardless of who's selected.

    Martin Dempsey, Army, Commander of U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC)
    - He and General Petraeus have been ships passing in the night for the past several years -- Dempsey served as Acting Commander of CENTCOM for about 6 months in 2008, before Petraeus took the helm. He also took over the police training mission in Iraq from Petraeus in 2007. He's well-respected and was rumored as a name to take the mission last year before McChrystal got the job.

    Other possibles (less likely):
    Lieutenant General Bill Caldwell, Army, Commander of the NATO Training Mission in Afghanistan
    - He just took the helm of training the Afghan Security Forces, which is considered a critical mission in Afghanistan, so he's not likely to be pulled out. That being said, he is well-respected and has done multiple deployments to both Iraq and Afghanistan, including one year as the spokesperson for Multi-National Forces in Iraq (in other words, he is comfortable with the media).

    General Walter "Skip" Sharp, Army, Commander of US Forces Korea
    - He's got about 40 years service in the military, has deployed to every major conflict since Bosnia, and even served as Director of the Joint Staff.

    NBC's Savannah Guthrie and Chuck Todd report Obama is expected to speak on camera here at the White House after his 11:35 am meeting with his national security team. No time given yet.

    Kube also reports that a senior Pentagon official says he expects the president to make a statement about McChrystal early this afternoon.

  • First thoughts: Will he stay or will he go?

    AP

    Gen. Stanley McChrystal arrives at the White House in Washington, Wednesday, June 23, 2010, for a meeting with President Barack Obama.

    Will McChrystal stay or go?... There are downsides for Obama with either scenario… The intense focus on McChrystal has turned Washington's attention to the war's shortcomings… Michael Hastings as William Miller in "Almost Famous"… Ken Salazar's new moratorium… No real surprises on Super Runoff Tuesday -- Haley wins in SC, Marshall wins in NC, and Lee (in a minor upset) wins in UT… Also, Inglis becomes the fifth incumbent to lose this cycle, as well as another TARP victim… McCain hits Hayworth in new TV ad on infomercial-gate… And American Crossroads' poor fundraising.

    From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
    *** Will he stay or will he go? According to NBC's Jim Miklaszewski, Gen. Stanley McChrystal arrived at the Pentagon earlier this morning, before his meeting later today at the White House with President Obama and his national security team. When Mik asked the general if he offered his resignation, McChrystal replied, "Come on, you know better than that. No!" Of course, no one is sure what Obama will decide to do after this morning's meeting, but it's clear that the president is facing a no-win situation. The downsides to keeping McChrystal: it would create the perception that it damages the chain of command and civilian authority over the military; it would raise doubts about Obama's toughness (a spate of "Is Obama tough enough" columns are probably just a "click send" away); and it could hurt troop morale (if McChrystal is saying these things about the administration, what would the troops think of the White House?). But if Obama decides to keep him, it will be because the president believes it will damage the war effort.

    *** A no-win situation: Here are the downsides to firing McChrystal: it would force Obama to scramble to find another general; it would re-open the entire debate over Afghanistan; and it would probably embolden opponents of the current Afghan strategy (one which the president is "completely invested in" as an aide re-emphasized to us yesterday). But if Obama does fire him, it will be because the president believes this is the final straw for McChrystal (after the Pat Tillman controversy and the general's previous criticisms of the administration). Yet whatever Obama decides, we guarantee this: This will become a chapter in every book about Obama's presidency. It is a giant moment. In fact, you could argue that everything that has happened in the past three months -- the Gulf spill, Europe's economic problems, the Arizona immigration law -- all deserve their own chapters.

    *** When the 'good' war goes 'bad': As we predicted, all the focus on McChrystal and the Rolling Stone article forced the chattering class -- which had been fixated on the Gulf spill, the economy, and the midterms -- to turn its attention to the administration's policy in Afghanistan. And the result isn't pretty. Politico says the controversy is "a reminder of just how badly Barack Obama's 'good war' in Afghanistan is going." Maureen Dowd calls it "just another sign of the complete incoherence of Afghan policy. The people in charge are divided against each other. And the policy is divided against itself." And here's Tom Friedman: "The ugly truth is that no one in the Obama White House wanted this Afghan surge. The only reason they proceeded was because no one knew how to get out of it — or had the courage to pull the plug."

    *** Almost Famous? On a lighter note, does anyone else see the similarities between Michael Hastings' piece in Rolling Stone and the movie "Almost Famous"? You have a freelance journalist working for Rolling Stone who gets accidentally embedded with his subject; the journalist ends up staying with the subject longer than originally planned; and the journalist ends up writing a juicy story that causes a stir and gets the subject in trouble. The only thing missing is this current story is someone proclaiming, "I AM A GOLDEN GOD!" Of course, maybe McChrystal or his aides did say something similar during those Bud Light Lime benders… By the way, Bud Light Lime? Really? Who knows, maybe the entire White House team will come out singing Tiny Dancer after today's Afghanistan-strategy meeting.

    *** Salazar's new moratorium order: Turning from McChrystal to the Gulf spill, Interior Secretary Ken Salazar said yesterday that the Obama administration would be issuing a new deep-drilling moratorium -- after a federal judge ruled yesterday to block the current moratorium. "We see clear evidence every day, as oil spills from BP's well, of the need for a pause on deepwater drilling. That evidence mounts as BP continues to be unable to stop its blowout, notwithstanding the huge efforts and help from the federal scientific team and most major oil companies operating in the Gulf of Mexico," Salazar said. "Based on this ever-growing evidence, I will issue a new order in the coming days that eliminates any doubt that a moratorium is needed, appropriate, and within our authorities." (Fascinating that the administration has decided NOT to keep fighting this in court.) What are American's opinions about the spill, about President Obama's handling of it, and about the need for offshore drilling? Tune into NBC, or click onto MSNBC.com, beginning at 6:30 pm ET for the latest answers from our new NBC/WSJ poll.

    *** No real surprises last night: There wasn't a Blanche Lincoln-like surprise in last night's runoffs, which played out the way most thought they would. In South Carolina, Nikki Haley won the GOP's gubernatorial nomination, making her an instant Republican star and the favorite in the fall. Also in South Carolina, GOP Rep. Bob Inglis became the fifth incumbent this cycle to lose a primary for re-election, while Tim Scott (an African American) beat Paul Thurmond (Strom Thurmond's son), making him the front-runner to be the GOP's first black congressman since J.C. Watts. In North Carolina, Elaine Marshall defeated Cal Cunningham (the DSCC's favorite) in the Democratic Senate primary, and she will face Sen. Richard Burr (R) in November. Utah gave us our minor surprise of the evening, with Mike Lee edging Tim Bridgewater in the state's GOP Senate primary. Lee is now overwhelming favorite to succeed defeated Sen. Bob Bennett (R).

    *** TARP's victims: As mentioned above, Inglis became the fifth incumbent to lose a primary for re-election, following Bennett (R-UT), Alan Mollohan (D-WV), Arlen Specter (D-PA), and Parker Griffith (R-AL). What's more, GOP Rep. Gresham Barrett -- who lost to Haley in South Carolina's gubernatorial runoff -- became the third senator or member of Congress to lose a primary for higher office, following Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX) and Artur Davis (D-AL). What do all of these folks have in common (except for Griffith, who wasn't in Congress then)? They all voted for the TARP bailout in 2008. This might be the most underreported trend of the 2010 cycle. (In fact, remember that Blanche Lincoln, another TARP voter, almost lost earlier this month. Bill Halter's first attack ad was on … the bailout) Here's another takeaway from the Inglis loss and even Haley's win: GOP primary voters are sending this message – we want you more conservative. Inglis wasn't seen as being conservative enough, while Haley (Mark Sanford's ideological heir) was the most conservative candidate in the SC primary field.

    *** Midterm news: In Arizona, John McCain is going up with a new TV ad hitting J.D. Hayworth on infomercial-gate as the campaign continues its "June is for defining Hayworth strategy"… In Florida, Democratic Senate candidates Kendrick Meek and Jeff Greene squared off in a debate where Meek's mother became a topic. ("How dare you attack the character of my mother," Meek said. Responded Greene: "I'm not attacking your mother, I'm attacking you.")… In New Hampshire, Paul Hodes launched his first TV ad, which goes after Kelly Ayotte… And the Karl Rove-/Ed Gillespie-backed American Crossroads group raised just $200 in May, Politico wrote.

    Countdown to AL run-off: 20 days
    Countdown to GA primary: 27 days
    Countdown to OK primary: 34 days
    Countdown to KS and MO primaries: 41 days
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  • Obama agenda: Under fire

    The New York Times’ front page: President Obama will confront the fate of his top commander in Afghanistan Wednesday after a firestorm over remarks the general and members of his staff made that were contemptuous of senior administration officials. Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal has prepared a letter of resignation, though President Obama had not made up his mind whether to accept it when they meet Wednesday morning.”

    “Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal's belittling critique of some of the Obama administration's top officials left the president with a stark choice on Tuesday: overlook comments that border on insubordination, or fire his top commander at a critical moment in Afghanistan,” the Washington Post adds.

    The Boston Globe's editorial page argues against firing McChrystal: "There MAY yet be reasons for President Obama to dismiss his commander in Afghanistan, General Stanley McChrystal, but allowing a Rolling Stone reporter to tag along for a boozy mission to France isn’t one of them… none of this bears on his job as commander. And the civilian control of the military is in no danger, unless making doo-doo jokes about uber-envoy Richard Holbrooke is a threat to the Constitution. There’s nothing in the article that is a firing offense." But because of "his vaguely insubordinate suggestion that he couldn’t back Biden’s plan ... McChrystal is probably overdue for another dressing-down."


    The AP: "Gen. Stanley McChrystal was put in charge of a drifting war in Afghanistan in part because he wasn't afraid to speak up. That quality may prove to be his downfall as President Barack Obama decides whether to fire him."

    The New York Post goes nuts on its cover: "CIVIL WAR! The general vs. Obama: Oval Office showdown over insults."

    The Post dubs McChrystal "Gen. Bigmouth."

    The New York Daily News: "General Chaos: McBigmouth and Bam in showdown."

    More Daily News: "In America, generals with runaway egos and mouths tend to become gone-away generals. ... McChrystal might even survive the latest firestorm if he could point to success in the war, but the most damning quote in the magazine article put his future in doubt. It came from a sergeant who put it to McChrystal straight up: 'Sir, some of the guys here, sir, think we're losing, sir.'"

    Jon Stewart on the whole controversy: "I may be a four-star general and you may be a reporter for some hippie magazine, but I feel like I can trust you."

    Should the President fire Gen. McChrystal? You can vote here. So far with almost 400 votes on the First Read poll, voters are split 54%-46%.

  • Obama agenda: Judge blocks moratorium

    A federal judge threw out President Obama's sweeping ban on deepwater drilling yesterday, saying the White House rashly overreacted to the Gulf oil disaster. US District Judge Martin Feldman in New Orleans said Obama wrongly assumed that 'because one rig failed,' all rigs drilling new wells 'present an imminent danger.'"

    NBC's Pete Williams reports: The federal judge who temporarily blocked the government's moratorium on deepwater drilling Tuesday is harshly critical of the Obama administration in his 22-page legal opinion, both on how the halt to drilling was conceived and on what effect it would have in Gulf states. The flavor of Judge Martin Feldman's order is captured in a single footnote. It quotes from an Interior Department report, which said the BP oil disaster was "commanding the Department of Interior's resources." He adds, "A disturbing admission by this Administration."

    Yesterday, Interior Secretary Ken Salazar said the administration would unveil a new -- and perhaps more targeted -- moratorium. "We see clear evidence every day, as oil spills from BP's well, of the need for a pause on deepwater drilling," he said in a statement. "That evidence mounts as BP continues to be unable to stop its blowout, notwithstanding the huge efforts and help from the federal scientific team and most major oil companies operating in the Gulf of Mexico. The evidence also continues to mount that industry needs to raise the bar on blowout prevention, containment, and response planning before deepwater drilling should continue."

    Salazar concluded: "Based on this ever-growing evidence, I will issue a new order in the coming days that eliminates any doubt that a moratorium is needed, appropriate, and within our authorities.

  • Congress: Pelosi plays hardball

    "Speaker Nancy Pelosi has been playing hardball to try to salvage what she can from the Democrats’ long-stalled jobs agenda. But the California Democrat is testing the limits of her power as she struggles to corral a growing roster of nervous rank-and-filers," Roll Call reports. "Pelosi is used to getting her way. Time and again the influential Speaker has proven her mettle, even in the face of difficult odds. Yet as the clock ticks toward the challenging midterm elections, Pelosi is finding no lift is easy -- whether it be getting her moderates on board for an extension of tax cuts and expired unemployment benefits or a package aimed at rolling back a controversial Supreme Court decision that lifted restrictions on corporate political spending."

    "Representative Barney Frank, trying to complete intense negotiations between the House and Senate over a massive revision of financial regulations, is coming under significant lobbying pressure from across the political spectrum as he tries this week to come up with a compromise that can win final approval," the Boston Globe writes.

    "The Senate confirmed 64 Obama administration nominees Tuesday, the largest package to move through the chamber this year," Roll Call writes.

    "Unlike most lawmakers on Capitol Hill, Rep. Cliff Stearns (R-Fla.) is not distancing himself from beleaguered Rep. Joe Barton (R-Texas). At least not yet," The Hill reports. "While some GOP lawmakers want Barton removed as the top Republican on the Energy and Commerce Committee, Stearns is set to appear with the Texas lawmaker at a fundraiser next week."

  • The midterms: Super Runoff Tuesday results

    AP

    Mike Lee, Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate from Utah, declares victory in the Republican primary as he holds up a copy of the U.S. Constitution (left). Nikki Haley speaks to supporters after winning the Republican nomination for governor in Columbia, S.C (right).

    NORTH CAROLINA: Secretary of State Elaine Marshall won the Democratic nomination against former state senator Cal Cunningham. "While the race Tuesday will decide who challenges Burr in November, voters appear unconcerned about the results, with only a sparse 38,000 turning out in early balloting across the state," the AP reported. "Both candidates expected a low turnout and cited the timing of the runoff right after the conclusion of the academic calendar."

    SOUTH CAROLINA: "With her victory, state Rep. Haley moved one step closer to becoming the first female governor in the conservative-leaning state," the AP says. "With 31 percent of the precincts reporting in the runoff, she led with 54 percent of the vote to Rep. Gresham Barrett's 45 percent."

    The AP reports that State Rep. Tim Scott beat Paul Thurmond, the son of former Sen. Strom Thurmond, in the 1st District Republican runoff. "If Scott wins the open seat in November, he will become the only African-American Republican member of Congress," Politico observes.

    Roll Call: "South Carolina state Rep. Tim Scott is on his way to becoming the first black Republican to serve in Congress since Rep. J.C. Watts (Okla.) left in 2002, after winning a landslide victory in a Tuesday runoff."


    The Hill's headline: "Son of one-time segregationist loses to black Republican."

    And: "Representative Bob Inglis, a six-term Republican, became the latest incumbent to lose his primary election," the New York Times writes. "He was easily defeated by Trey Gowdy, a prosecutor, who had criticized Mr. Inglis for his vote to support a bailout of the banking industry in 2008."

    "With 76 percent reporting, The Associated Press called the contest for Gowdy, who had 73 percent to Inglis' 27 percent," Roll Call writes. "Inglis is the third House Member to be defeated in a party primary in a cycle that has come to be defined by voter anger and an anti-establishment backlash."

    UTAH: In a bit of a surprise, "Mike Lee slid past Tim Bridgewater Tuesday to win the Republican nomination for U.S. Senator," the St. George Daily Spectrum reports. "A constitutional lawyer who has vowed to fight government expansion if elected, Lee was a favorite of local Tea Party groups, and heads into the General Election a heavy favorite against [Democratic nominee Sam] Granato. Republicans have won each Utah Senate election for the last 40 years." Bob Bennett-backed Bridgewater had a lead in public polls heading into the runoff.

    The AP profiles Lee, a former Sam Alito clerk, and focused on his upbringing in a family of lawyers who discussed the Constitution at the dinner table and Lee recounted attending Supreme Court hearings when he was 10 years old: "Lee won on Tuesday, earning a nearly a 5,000 vote lead with 84 percent of precincts reporting for about 51 percent of the vote. ... The California-based Tea Party Express spent $30,000 supporting Lee in the campaign's closing days, mostly on radio advertisements."

  • The midterms: The rest

    ILLINOIS: “Scott Lee Cohen, the 45-year-old pawnshop owner from Chicago who won the Democratic nomination for lieutenant governor this spring, only to withdraw after allegations surfaced of past bad behavior, filed petitions Monday as an independent candidate for governor,” the Springfield State Journal-Register writes.

    IOWA: Joe the Plumber (aka Samuel Joseph Wurzelbacher) is heading to Des Moines for a Tea Party event on July 4, the Des Moines Register reports.

    LOUISIANA: ABC reports that an aide to Sen. David Vitter pleaded guilty to attacking a girlfriend, and the aide was working on ... women's issues.

    NEVADA: Republican Senate nominee Sharron Angle has hired national Republican media firm BrabenderCox to create radio and TV ads for her campaign, the Nevada Sun reports. The firm also worked for Rudy Giuliani’s 2008 presidential bid.

    NEW HAMPSHIRE: Democratic Senate candidate Paul Hodes is up with a new ad accusing Republican frontrunner Kelly Ayotte of foul play in her inaction to prosecute the Financial Resources Mortgage Ponzi scheme, local station WMUR reports.

  • GOP watch: Mazel tov, Abramoff

    "Disgraced former lobbyist Jack Abramoff has found a new source of dough -- pizza. Abramoff, who was released from prison to a halfway house this month, has started a new job at Baltimore's self-proclaimed 'Best Kosher Pizza,' the Baltimore Jewish Times reported Monday. According to the paper, he will work at Tov Pizza for at least six months 'in almost all areas of the restaurant" and potentially on marketing strategies,'" the New York Daily News reports.

  • Obama: McChrystal showed 'poor judgment'

    NBC's Athena Jones reports that President Obama was asked a question at a "pool spray" about whether he'd fire Gen. McChrystal.

    Obama declined to say if he would. Instead, he said the following:

    He's on his way here. I will meet with him. [Defense Secretary] Gates will meet with him. It's clear the article shows poor judgment, but I also want to make sure I talk to him directly before I make any decisions.

    Even as he is on his way, central focus is success in making sure Al Qaeda and affiliates cannot attack us and its allies. People are making enormous sacrifices. So whatever decision I make is determined on making sure we have a strategy that justifies the sacrifice.

    NBC's Chuck Todd reports that despite some reports to the contrary, McChrystal has not offered his resignation, according to two senior administration aides. However, he has informed his superiors that he is prepared to do so.

    It's semantics to some, but important semantics in this case.

    A senior aide also said there is a path for McChrystal to save his job. Everything depends on how the meeting with the president goes tomorrow morning.

  • Mexico joins Ariz. lawsuit


    The government of Mexico today formally joined a lawsuit in federal court challenging Arizona's new immigration law, saying that the highest levels of the Mexican government have grave concerns about it.

    "Each day, approximately 65,000 Mexicans are admitted into Arizona; and each day they spend an average of $7.35 million in its stores, restaurants, and other businesses," says a friend-of-court brief filed by Mexico. But if the new law takes effect, "Mexican citizens will be afraid to visit Arizona for work or pleasure out of concern that they will be subject to unlawful police scrutiny and detention," the brief says.

    The law creates "an imminent threat of state-sanctioned bias or discrimination, resulting not only in individual injury but also in broader social and economic harms to its citizens."


    "Given the public rhetoric by the Arizona Governor and other state officials," the brief says, "Mexico is rightfully concerned for the civil rights of its citizens in Arizona." The law gives local police officers "carte blanche authority to stereotype and to rely on the popular perception that appearances and foreign-ness" are justifiable reasons to treat members of a targeted group differently, it says.

    Mexico also argues that its relations with the United States on immigration, trade, and security depend on a consistent foreign policy, something that would be frustrated if states "establish their own requirements that conflict not only with each other but also with the efforts, priorities and commitments of the US federal government."

    Mexico's friend-of-court brief is part of the lawsuit filed against the state by a coalition of civil rights and service organizations.

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