From NBC's Pete Williams
A Secret Service spokesman says Tareq and Michaele Salahi, the couple that crashed the first Obama state dinner last year, were stopped last night close to the White House after their limo driver ran a red light.

The spokesman says an officer in the Secret Service uniformed division saw their car go through the red light, then appear to prepare to drive onto the Elipse, a street near the White House not open to normal traffic. When the limo stopped and put on its flashers, the officer questioned the driver and the Salahis. The driver was given a ticket and allowed to leave.

One government official said it appeared that the Salahis were preparing to be photographed in front of the White House during the state dinner but said there was no indication they were trying to get into the dinner.

Senators already react to Tuesday's primaries -- by bucking the establishment… Immigration returns… Rand Paul's opposition to the '64 Civil Rights Act, and when being an unconventional candidate isn't always an asset… Flashback: Paul's father, Ron, said on "Meet" in 2007 that he would have voted against the act… McConnell's defenders push back… Linda McMahon admits playing a role in the New York Times piece on Blumenthal… And another poll shows Whitman's lead over Poizner has declined.

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** Bucking the establishment: Remember when Scott Brown's victory in January prompted Democrats to essentially pronounce that health care was dead? Well, we're once again seeing Capitol Hill react (perhaps overreact?) to Tuesday's primary results. If Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell thought their jobs were tough before, try doing it after senators decide that one of the lessons of the early primary season is "bucking the establishment." Yesterday, Democratic Sens. Russ Feingold and Maria Cantwell, as well as Scott Brown, joined the GOP's successful filibuster to temporarily stop the financial reform legislation. Feingold's beef: the legislation didn't go far enough. "I very much want this body to craft a bill that can prevent the kind of crisis we experienced in the future," he said. "But the bill before us needs some work before we can make that claim." If the seed is not just planted in senators' heads -- but also takes hold -- to stand up to Reid/McConnell, it could gum up the Senate even more than it looks these days.

*** Immigration returns: In the past few days, other issues (the oil spill in the Gulf, Tuesday's elections, the Kagan SCOTUS nomination) have overshadowed the debate over Arizona's immigration law, as well as whether Congress will even attempt to take up immigration legislation this year. Well, immigration returned in a big way yesterday -- with yesterday's state visit by Mexico's president and also by the little girl who expressed her mother's concern to First Lady Michelle Obama that the administration was trying to round up all illegal immigrants. Perhaps the one thing we learned yesterday: First Lady Michelle Obama is politically quick on her feet. Her ability to comfort and dodge the little girl's question without riling up either side of the immigration debate was impressive.

*** When being unconventional isn't always an asset: As we wrote yesterday, what made Rand Paul a strong primary candidate -- and what also potentially makes him a strong general-election candidate -- is that he's an unconventional candidate who's willing to say unconventional things. But that also has a downside now that he's stepped in the national spotlight. Exhibit A: his admission last night to MSNBC's Rachel Maddow that he opposes part of the 1964 Civil Rights Act. In the interview, he objected to a portion of the law making it a crime for businesses to discriminate on the basis of race. Paul's answer: "[I]f you decide that restaurants are publicly owned and not privately owned, then do you say that you should have the right to bring your gun into a restaurant even though the owner of the restaurant says 'well no, we don't want to have guns in here' the bar says 'we don't want to have guns in here because people might drink and start fighting and shoot each-other.' Does the owner of the restaurant own his restaurant? Or does the government own his restaurant?"  

*** Like father, like son? Of course, this same kind of issue dogged Paul's father, Ron, during his 2008 presidential bid. Ron Paul's libertarian views -- that the government has no place except when expressly authorized by the Constitution -- aren't necessarily mainstream GOP positions. He consistently voted against hurricane relief; he opposed the Iraq war; he favors a return to the gold standard; he wants to decriminalize drugs; and he has stated his own past opposition to the 1964 Civil Rights Act. In fact, on "Meet the Press" in Dec. 2007, Paul said he would have voted against the '64 Civil Rights Act. "So it's a property rights issue. And this idea that all private property is under the domain of the federal government I think is wrong." By the way, is there any Senate race in the country that the GOP in DC (read: NRSC) will have less influence in than Kentucky? The distrust between the Paul campaign and the NRSC during the primary will make it VERY difficult for the two to work together. As Paul does damage control (assuming he does today), it'll give us a sense of just how much influence the NRSC can have.

*** McConnell's defenders push back: Mitch McConnell's supporters have pushed back against the idea that the Senate minority leader might need to watch his back -- after his defeats on health care, his possible defeat on financial reform, and Trey Grayson's loss in Kentucky's primary. First, these supporters point to polling that shows McConnell having a very high approval rating in Kentucky, even among Paul supporters. Second, the idea that somehow he has to worry about his place in leadership or those who second guess health care aren't giving him credit on the political damage he's caused the White House. He made health care MUCH more difficult to pass, and in their minds has been instrumental in making the issue as negative as it is right now for the Democratic Party. Finally, they say he's always looking over his shoulder -- meaning he's constantly checking the pulse of the conference. And McConnell observers tell us that if he had a problem, he'd probably know before others. Bottom line, they argue: McConnell had a bad day Tuesday, but it's nothing more.

*** Hardly playing it cool: As others have mentioned, Linda McMahon's (R) campaign committed a rookie mistake by taking credit for the damaging New York Times story on Richard Blumenthal (D) exaggerating his military service in the Connecticut Senate contest. (Just imagine if Team Obama had taken credit for its $400 haircut hit on John Edwards; it would have become big news because many observers assumed it was Team Hillary that was responsible for it.) Well, now McMahon herself is on the record taking partial credit for the New York Times story on Blumenthal. Asked by a local reporter if her campaign was responsible for the hit, she answered: "We did," McMahon said. "We've had some role with our research, yes." Every day that the PROCESS of the Blumenthal story is a story (and it is again today as they Blumenthal folks are pushing around an extended play version of the NYT video), it's another day that he can survive this. That said, there are plenty of Democrats who note the silence from actual Vietnam veterans who are Democratic senators. One would assume the Blumenthal folks have reached out. Nothing yet?

*** More midterm news: In California, a new PCCC poll shows that Meg Whitman's lead over Steve Poizner has nosedived from 50 points to nine points (38%-29%) among GOP voters… In Idaho, Sarah Palin is heading to Boise to campaign for one of the Republican candidates (Vaughn Ward) vying to defeat Rep. Walt Minnick (D) in the fall… And Sen. Bob Bennett (R) is scheduled to hold a news conference today to announce whether he's going to make a write-in bid to keep his Senate seat. (Politico speculates that, because the newser is at the NRSC headquarters, Bennett is unlikely to go the write-in route.)

Countdown to HI special election: 3 days
Countdown to ID primary: 6 days
Countdown to CA, IA, ME, NJ, ND, SC, SD, and VA primaries, and AR run-off: 20 days:
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 167 days

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The New York Times front-pages a "what went right" story on Democrats' victory in the PA-12 special election. "They were successful in pushing the party message that the economy is improving and that jobs are returning because of steps taken by the Democratic-controlled Congress and Mr. Obama. They say Republicans were unable to define the race around the national issues they hope will carry them in the fall, despite an effort to tie Mr. Critz to Speaker Nancy Pelosi Mr. Obama and the Democratic health care legislation."

"House Democratic leaders had a clear message for their nervous rank and file as they assessed the Pennsylvania special election results Wednesday morning: It might not be that bad," Roll Call reports. "The Democratic victory in the late Rep. John Murtha's district punctured the Republican narrative that a GOP machine turbocharged by tea party energy would run roughshod over the Democratic majority this fall by running against health care, Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and President Barack Obama, Democrats said."

"A buoyant Pelosi (D-Calif.) on Wednesday basked in the Democrats' special-election triumph while bashing Republicans and expressing confidence that her party will retain control of the House," The Hill writes.

Stu Rothenberg reflects: "What a really weird week," he writes in his column in Roll Call. He adds, "The defeat of Republican Tim Burns in the Pennsylvania 12th district special election obviously is the biggest blow to the GOP, which hoped to show the existence of an early wave building against Democrats and President Barack Obama. That didn't happen, in part because of strong Democratic turnout in the race and statewide."

The Washington Post quotes one congressional Democrat who wasn't pleased that the White House seemed to abandon Arlen Specter. "'Let me get this straight: If you think I can't win, you're not going to spend political capital on me, even though I spill buckets of blood for you?' [Virginia Rep. Gerry] Connolly said. 'The White House can't be [keeping] distance from people who have walked the plank for them, even when they might lose. Loyalty matters in this business.'"

ARKANSAS: "Sen. Blanche Lincoln on Wednesday asked for, and received, assurances of support from her Democratic colleagues as she prepares for a June 8 primary runoff against Arkansas Lt. Gov. Bill Halter -- although it remained unclear what form that assistance might take beyond campaign contributions," Roll Call writes.

KENTUCKY: The New York Post profiles Rand Paul: "How conservative is he? The 47-year-old Paul - who trounced establishment candidate Trey Grayson in Kentucky's GOP Senate primary Tuesday -- wants to abolish the federal departments of education, commerce and energy, as well as the income tax. Like Palin, with whom Paul now stands atop the Tea Party cake, he is opposed to all government bailouts and earmarks, and President Obama's 'socialist' health care law. He favors a constitutional amendment banning abortion, even in cases of rape and incest. But in a libertarian twist, he also favors legalizing medical marijuana." More: "The self-styled man of the people was defending his decision to hold his victory party Tuesday night at an exclusive country club. Enter Tiger. 'I think at one time, people used to think of golf and golf clubs and golf courses as being exclusive,' Paul explained on 'Good Morning America.' '[But] I think Tiger Woods has helped to broaden that, in the sense that he's brought golf to a lot of the cities and to city youth.'"

A) Woods grew up in Orange County, CA (not exactly the "city,") and graduated from Stanford, and B) Is bringing up Tiger Woods the best person nowadays to use as a defense for anything?

The latest potential crisis for the Obama administration: "South Korea said Thursday that an international investigation has found overwhelming evidence that one of its warships was sunk by a torpedo made in North Korea and that the weapon was fired by a North Korean submarine," the Washington Post writes.

White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs released this statement last night: "This act of aggression is one more instance of North Korea's unacceptable behavior and defiance of international law. This attack constitutes a challenge to international peace and security and is a violation of the Armistice Agreement. The President spoke with President Lee on May 17 and made clear that the United States fully supports the Republic of Korea, both in the effort to secure justice for the 46 service members killed in this attack and in its defense against further acts of aggression."

The AP: "Attorney General Eric Holder and the rest of the Obama administration are suddenly playing offense in the political free-for-all over how best to wage the war on terror. Criticized for months by Republicans as not being tough on terrorism, the administration is offering to work with Congress to modify the public safety exception on Miranda warnings."

The New York Post has the Obamas, dressed for last night's state dinner, on its cover with Michelle Obama tending to the president's eye. Headline: "Apple of my eye."

"The Senate on Wednesday rejected an effort by Democratic leaders to complete work on a sweeping financial regulatory bill as two key Democratic holdouts said it still did not tighten rules on Wall Street enough," the New York Times reports. "The holdouts — Senators Maria Cantwell of Washington and Russ Feingold of Wisconsin — joined with 39 Republicans to block an effort by the majority leader, Harry Reid of Nevada, to wrap up debate on the bill."

The Boston Globe says that Scott Brown also joined the filibuster. "The Massachusetts Republican, who initially said he would vote with the Democrats, appeared to have drawn the ire of Senate majority leader Harry Reid. 'I don't know a lot about everything, but I know how to count votes,' Reid, who lost on the procedural vote, said at a press conference. 'Now, I'm not going to be giving any names and verses, but a senator broke his word with me.' That senator appeared to have been Brown."

"The good news for soon-to-be ex-Rep. Mark Souder: There are no rules that expressly prohibit Members of Congress from sleeping with their staff," Roll Call writes.

"The Pentagon's 'Don't ask, don't tell' policy will be nothing but a memory by year's end, Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) declared Wednesday," The Hill writes.

"It was strike two for a major science funding bill yesterday as House Republicans again united to derail legislation they said was too expensive. Going down to defeat was legislation that would have committed more than $40 billion over three years to boost funding for the National Science Foundation and other federal agencies involved in basic and applied science, provided loan guarantees to small businesses developing new technologies, and promoted science and math education," the Boston Globe reports. And check this out:  "Congress enacted a first version of the legislation in 2007 with a large majority in the House and a unanimous vote in the Senate. But in this election year, with Republicans out to show their antispending credentials, things are different."

Mexican President Felipe Calderon will be on Capitol Hill today and press the case for immigration reform.

"House Democrats are pushing forward today with a measure to strike back at the controversial Supreme Court decision loosening restrictions on political spending. But leaders are split on the strategy for advancing the bill -- a debate that highlights broader Caucus tensions over how best to prepare the party for potentially brutal midterms," Roll Call reports.

Rep. Pete King says suddenly New York has gotten an additional $121 million in funding.

CALIFORNIA: "Despite spending $68 million of her fortune on a half-year torrent of TV ads, billionaire former eBay CEO Meg Whitman's once-robust lead over Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner in the Republican race for governor has dwindled from 50 points to just nine points [38% to 29%], according to a new statewide poll," the San Francisco Chronicle writes. And in the GOP Senate primary Carly Fiorina holds a narrow lead over former Rep. Tom Campbell, according to a poll by the Public Policy Institute of California.

CONNECTICUT: The Boston Globe: "Just months ago, Republican Linda McMahon's quest for the US Senate seat here seemed quixotic at best: a former world wrestling executive, with no political experience or network, spending millions of her own fortune on an election in a heavily Democratic state. But with a strong anti-establishment mood sweeping the country, McMahon's candidacy has gone from a curiosity to a genuine threat to the experienced GOP opponent she faces in a party nominating contest tomorrow — and to Democrats who are newly worried about revelations that their party's front-runner, state Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, incorrectly said that he served in Vietnam."

IDAHO: "Sarah Palin announced Tuesday she's coming to Boise, just four days before the Primary election," KTVB reports, "to help Republican Vaughn Ward, who is running for the U.S. House of Representatives in a bid to unseat Democrat Walt Minnick.

IOWA: "Vice President Joe Biden on Tuesday told Iowans the economy was improving nationally and that Iowa was ahead of that trend," the Des Moines Register writes of Biden's visit yesterday. "The truth is it's a depression for millions and millions of Americans still,' Biden said in campaigning for Iowa Gov. Chet Culver. 'You're blessed here in Iowa. Things are not nearly as bad as they are in the rest of the country.'"

NEW YORK: Vito's back. "In a startling move, the Staten Island Republican Party last night nominated scandal-scarred ex-Rep. Vito Fossella for his old seat - even though he wasn't even there," the New York Post reports.

From NBC's Luke Russert
What did the leadership know? And when did they know it?

Those are questions House Republicans have asked their Democratic counterparts regarding the accusations that ex-Rep. Eric Massa (D) harassed members of his staff. For weeks now, Republicans have been arguing that the Democratic leadership was too slow to act after first hearing about the Massa allegations.

Now these same questions are being asked of Republican leaders regarding Rep. Mark Souder's (R) affair with a female staffer -- in particular what House GOP Conference Chairman Mike Pence (R) knew and when. Souder has said he will resign his seat on Friday.

Here is the timeline of events, according to Pence and other aides close the GOP leadership:

On Wednesday, May 12, Pence was alerted to rumors that Souder was having an extramarital affair. Pence confronted Souder on the House floor the next day, on May 13, and demanded to know the details of what was going on between Souder and at the time an unidentified woman.

Pence said in an interview with NBC News: "I was approached by a journalist, I think, Wednesday of last week, who asked if I had heard anything about my colleague. I indicated that I hadn't. I then approached Mr. Souder on Thursday on the House floor to inform him of that inquiry, and it was at that point that he shared that he had been involved in an extramarital affair; it's a deeply saddening event."

But Pence, according to House leadership aides, never mentioned the rumors to House Minority Leader John Boehner -- ironic given the GOP's criticism of Democrats for not acting on the initial rumors surrounding Massa.

When asked about why Pence was slow to act, Pence spokesman Matt Lloyd replied, "In response to a general media inquiry, Mr. Pence confronted Mr. Souder on Thursday. Mr. Souder confessed to an affair, but did not mention that it was with a part-time staff member. It was not until Sunday evening that Mr. Souder called Mr. Pence to inform him that the affair was with a part-time staff member. Mr. Pence encouraged Mr. Souder to resign immediately and notified Ethics on Monday."

Pence's claim that he didn't know the affair was with a staffer would seem to minimize its seriousness, because an affair with a non-staffer doesn't bring up the type of concerns that would be sent to the House Ethics Committee.

But others have a different understanding of events. Senior aides close to the GOP leadership tell NBC that Souder's staff originally dismissed the allegations of an affair as pure rumor on May 13, and continued dismissing the story the next day. According to these aides, it wasn't until Saturday that Souder's staff requested a meeting with GOP leadership aides to take place the next day, when the staff admitted to Boehner's staff that an affair had taken place -- and that it was with a staffer.

Once confirmed, Boehner alerted the House Ethics Committee of Souder's affair in a letter he sent on Monday. By Tuesday morning -- May 18 -- the story broke.

From NBC's Ali Weinberg
The Super Senate Tuesday race getting the most blogosphere play this afternoon? The special election in Pennsylvania's twelfth district, where Democrat Mark Critz, a former top aide to the late Rep. John Murtha, defeated Tim Burns, a Republican. Liberals used the race to laugh off dire general election predictions, while conservatives insisted the outcome was an anomaly.

AMERICAblog made a headline out of a phrase used in a Politico article: "Republicans failed spectacularly."

And Balloon Juice suggested the anti Pelosi/Obama route won't resonate with some general election voters: "So the Democrat won the race in Pennsylvania 12, defeating the surefire strategy of attacking a grandmotherly figure who looks like damned near every other yinzer grandma in Pittsburgh. Good thinking, Republicans. You might want to try to run on an issue in the fall, rather than just trashing Pelosi. Those who haven't heard of her don't care, and those who have heard of her are either wondering how throwing eggs at her will get them a job or why you are picking on the Italian grandmother who smiles nervously when she is on camera."

Daily Kos made light of pundits' predictions that a Democratic loss in PA-12 would augur loss of the House majority, but a win wasn't indicative of anything: "Had the Republicans taken the seat, the media would've undoubtedly double downed on their narrative of imminent Democratic doom. Instead, we get this from the AP: 'any attempt to read into the results a probable trend for the fall campaign was hazardous — particularly given Critz's victory over Republican Tim Burns to succeed Democrat Murtha in Congress.'" 

Kos: "Ah yes. We can't read anything into those results. The Democrat won after all!"

Washington Monthly used the PA-12 example to stifle the "anti-incumbent" and "anti-Democrat" death knells. In the PA House race, "Again, no incumbent. And the guy close to the (albeit dead) incumbent won... Put it this way: if yesterday's results were really a signal that incumbents are in deep trouble, one would assume that Dems would be panicky today, since they're in the majority. But the opposite is true -- Republicans are reeling after setbacks in Kentucky and Pennsylvania, and Democrats are feeling increasingly optimistic."

Red State noted that Mark Critz had to appeal to a more conservative base to win the election: "Tim Burns lost the special election in PA-12, but will now run in the general election for November against the Democrat. It is important to note that the Democrat, Critz, to get the win had to run to the right, repudiating large portions of Barack Obama's agenda."

NRO's Kathryn Jean Lopez ascribed Burns' loss to the fact that Democrats had more voting opportunities than Republicans, thus driving them out in larger numbers: "How exactly is it a level playing field when the Democrats have a statewide U.S. Senate primary happening at the same time? There was no comparative factor getting Republicans motivated to interrupt their busy lives to vote. That's not soreloserdom blogging, it's just attention to reality. The Democrats were more motivated in this race. This ain't the end of a trend. It's just another special election, in a Democratic district, and on a big Democratic primary day. And a Democrat won. Disappointing. But not paradigm-smashing shocking. And not devastating."

NRO's Campaign Spot blogger Jim Geraghty agreed with Lopez: "Yes, it's a special election, and turnout is always significantly lower for elections not held in November. But a key part of winning a special election is getting out the vote among your party's base, and in this area, the Burns campaign dramatically underperformed. Traditionally, Republicans perform better than usual in special elections. Burns won the primary, and will face Critz on the ballot again in November. He will need to dramatically improve his get-out-the-vote operations or hope that the state's leading Republicans, Senate candidate Pat Toomey and gubernatorial candidate Tom Corbett, have epic coattails."

But Lopez and Geraghty's colleague /corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YjgwMjY2NGY4ZDY2MTM1ZWI1YzA3MDM4Yzk3Yzg1Njc=">Ramesh Ponnuru pointed out that Republicans have been building up national momentum for months, suggesting they should have rallied voters swept up in the anti-Democratic wave: "That prediction, if true, should translate into Republicans' picking up open seats in socially conservative, McCain-voting districts. That it

From NBC's Ken Strickland
CAPITOL HILL -- Yes, earlier it was written here that the financial regulations bill was approaching the final leg of its journey toward passage.

Well, Democrats appear to have hit a big ol' snag.

Majority Leader Harry Reid postponed a key procedural vote that was scheduled for 2:00 pm ET and instead will meet with his caucus behind closed doors to "find the way forward," according to one aide. The Senate is in recess now.

In simple terms, they're stuck.

It could be resolved in next couple of hours, but as of now the resolution for this is unclear.

What's wrong? Could be several things.

To break the filibuster and advance the bill, Reid will need 60 votes -- that means everyone in the Democratic Caucus and at least one Republican. So it begs the question if the votes are there. Are Blanche Lincoln and Arlen Specter back from their primaries? Are there some defections within the Democratic ranks?

There have also been a lot of problems trying to negotiate who will get a vote on their amendment. So if even one member is dissatisfied about getting a vote on his or her amendment, it can create a ripple effect of problems.

From NBC's Athena Jones
WASHINGTON -- Immigration dominated the conversation at the press conference President Obama and his Mexican counterpart held after their private meetings here Wednesday morning.

Both Obama and President Felipe Calderon spoke about the challenges presented by illegal immigration during their opening statements and both questions during the brief Q and A covered the topic. The issue even came up during an event the two first ladies held with schoolchildren.

How to deal with illegal immigration has been a political hot-button issue in recent years, one no Congress has succeeded in resolving. At today's event, Obama twice made the point of saying that illegal immigration was "down not up" despite perceptions, because his administration had devoted "unprecedented resources" in personnel and technology to securing America's borders. He said the federal government must act to decrease the likelihood that states would pass their own laws to deal with illegal immigration and he repeated much of what he has said in the past about supporting comprehensive immigration reform, but needing Republicans to get something done.

"I don't have 60 votes in the Senate," Obama said. "There have been some people who've expressed an interest, but if they're willing to come forward and get a working group and get this moving, I'm actually confident that we can get it done."

Still, progress on this issue looks increasingly unlikely in this tough election year.

Immigration came up almost as soon as Calderon arrived for a welcome ceremony on the South Lawn this morning. After Obama spoke, calling the United States and Mexico "not simply neighbors, bound by geography and history" but friends and partners, Calderon talked about common challenges the countries faced, including immigration and drug-trafficking, and about the need to start a "new chapter of cooperation" and to combat discrimination.

"I know that we share the interest in promoting dignified, legal and orderly living conditions to all migrant workers," Calderon said. "Many of them, despite their significant contribution to the economy and to the society of the United States, still live in the shadows and, occasionally, as in Arizona, they even face discrimination."

The Mexican president was referring to the controversial Arizona law that requires police to question people suspected of being in the country illegally, provided they are stopped for another violation. Though the legislation was revised in an attempt to prevent racial profiling, both presidents believe its application could lead to harassment.

The two leaders also discussed Iran, Honduras, Haiti the economy, clean energy and drug and weapons trafficking during their meetings, with Obama noting that the United States was devoting "significant resources" to screening 100% of rail cargo heading into Mexico, in an effort to thwart gunrunners.

First Lady gets immigration question
Immigration even came up during a visit First Lady Michelle Obama and Mexican First Lady Margarita Zavala made to a Maryland elementary school. According to the pool report, a second-grader told Mrs. Obama that her mother said "Barack Obama is taking everybody away that doesn't have papers," referring to documentation proving citizenship or the right to work in the United States.

Mrs. Obama responded that it was important "to make that people can be here with the right kind of papers."

The child said her mother did not have any papers.

"Well we have to work on that," Mrs. Obama told the little girl. "We have to fix that and everybody's got to work together in Congress to make sure that happens. That's right."

The first lady, the Bidens and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton joined economic adviser Larry Summers, Washington Mayor Adrian Fenty, Homeland Security Adviser John Brennan, Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel, Homeland Secretary Janet Napolitano and other dignitaries and school children on the South Lawn for the festive event.

The Obamas are hosting Calderon and his wife for a state dinner tonight.

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
It looks like "Chicken-gate" may have come too early for Democrats.

The Club for Growth endorsed former state Rep. Sharron Angle in the GOP Senate primary in Nevada.

The frontrunner has been former state Republican party chairwoman Sue Lowden. But her comments about bartering chickens as a form of health care have made Republicans think twice about her potential strength against Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D), one of the most endangered incumbents left this cycle.

Lowden's lead has dropped in polling. A May 10-11 Mason-Dixon poll showed Lowden leading Angle and Danny Tarkanian 30%-25%-22%. But that is a big drop from a month earlier when the same poll showed Lowden leading Tarkanian and Angle, 45%-27%-5%.

"Sharron Angle is everything a pro-growth, limited-government, economic conservative can be, and everything Washington and the country need right now," Club for Growth President Chris Chocola said in a statement. "She was the undisputed fiscal conservative leader in the Nevada State Assembly, and she has the courage and skill to step into the same role in the U.S. Senate.  Sharron Angle is the true economic conservative in the Nevada Senate race, a candid, common-sense leader with the courage to stand up against liberal big spenders in both parties. Sharron is Harry Reid's worst nightmare, and Nevada's best hope. Her courageous, honest style and principled leadership will do more good in six years in the Senate than Reid's corrupt backroom deals and trillion-dollar boondoggles could in a lifetime." 

This is the 12th endorsement for the Club for Growth. The others include: incumbent Sens. Jim DeMint (SC) and Tom Coburn (Okla.), Senate candidates Marco Rubio (FL) and Pat Toomey (PA), House candidates Kevin Calvey (OK-5), Tom Graves (GA-9), Tim Huelskamp (KS-1), Mike Pompeo (KS-4), Robin Smith (TN-3), Jeff Duncan (SC-3), and Tim Scott (SC-01).

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
We mentioned in First Thoughts this morning that Rand Paul said, "Kentucky," the place he's running to be senator of, just once last night in his acceptance speech.

Compare that with the number of times he said, "Tea Party."

He said that phrase nine times.

From NBC's Pete Williams and Mark Murray
The confirmation hearings for Supreme Court nominee Elena Kagan will begin Monday, June 28, according to Sen. Patrick Leahy, chairman of the Judiciary Committee.

There's every reason to expect that this hearing will unfold as past ones have, which would be as follows:
-- Monday June 28: opening statements from committee members and, toward the end of the day, from the nominee;
-- Tuesday and Wednesday: questions from senators for the nominee;
-- Thursday: remaining questions, if any, and beginning of other witness in support of and opposed to the nominee;
-- Friday: Remaining outside witnesses, if any.

By the way, Obama's Organizing for America has unveiled a Web site to spread the word about Kagan to the president's supporters. An OFA spokeswoman tells First Read: "The 'Kagan for Justice Action Center' provides a place for volunteers to find facts about Solicitor General Kagan, listen to her speak in her own words, and a form to sign declaring their support for her. The Action Center also has interactive tools that make it easier for people to send a letter to the editor of a local newspaper and call a local radio talk show to discuss her."

From NBC's Scott Foster
The Obama White House brought together several former Clinton White House colleagues of Supreme Court nominee Elena Kagan today to share their reflections and praise her qualifications for the nation's top court.

In a conference call that included former White House Chief of Staff John Podesta and former speechwriter Michael Waldman, several of Kagan's former White House colleagues showered her with numerous compliments.

Podesta called her "wicked smart," saying she was "in a special class," with a "first rate legal intellect." He explained she impressed co-workers with her ability to work with people on the other side of the political aisle. As would be expected in such a forum, none of the participants had a negative thing to say about Kagan.

From 1995 to 1999, Kagan served as President Clinton's Associate White House Counsel, focusing on the constitutionality of legislation.

Former speechwriter Waldman said one of her strengths was her ability to "translate between the highly technical technical language of some of the brainiest policy wonks and the American people."

Asked directly about her views on such thorny legal issues as Roe v. Wade, as well affirmative action, Podesta punted, saying she'll have a chance to speak for herself during her confirmation hearings.

Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Patrick Leahy announced today those hearings are set to being June 28.

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Mark Souder's announced resignation yesterday made us want to take a look back at the 1994 Republican Revolution almuni, since the Indiana congressman was part of that class.

Republicans picked up 54 seats in the House that year after 40 years of Democratic control. There were 75 total new Republicans in 1994 (including three who won special elections that year).

The maximum number of alumni who could remain in the House next Congress are 11: Bilbray CA, Frelinghuysen NJ, Hastings WA, Jones NC, Latham IA, LaTourette OH, Lobiondo NJ, Lucas OK, Myrick NC, Thornberry TX, and Whitfield KY.

VIDEO: NBC's Chuck Todd breaks down the Class of '94 on MSNBC's The Daily Rundown.

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Seven others are sitting senators: Brownback KS, Burr NC, Chambliss GA, Coburn OK, Ensign NV, Graham SC, Wicker MS. There is also one sitting governor (for now) -- Mark Sanford SC. And one former governor is running for governor again -- Bob Ehrlich in Maryland. Two others are running for governor currently; and two are running for Senate, including J.D. Hayworth in Arizona against John McCain.

There were at least nine scandals, including cheating, embezzlement, messy divorces, gay sexting, an FBI investigation, jail time, and a trip to Argentina.

There's also one Obama cabinet secretary (Ray LaHood) and a cable talk show host (Joe Scarborough).

Here's a by the numbers look at the Class of '94:

BY THE NUMBERS
75 Republicans, who were swept into the House in 1994
23 are current members of Congress
16 remain in the U.S. House
11 is the maximum that will remain in the House after this Congress
  9 scandals (at least) -- Ensign, Foley, Ney (faced jail time), Sanford, Souder, Enid Greene Waldholtz, Weldon, Bunn, Christensen 
  7 sitting U.S. Senators
  5 sitting members are retiring from the House or running for other office -- Radanovich, Shadegg, Souder, Tiahrt (running for Senate), Wamp (running for governor)
  3 running for governor -- Brownback, Ehrlich, Wamp
  2 running for Senate -- Hayworth, Tiahrt
  1 sitting governor -- Mark Sanford
  1 Obama cabinet secretary -- Ray LaHood
  1 cable talk show host -- Joe Scarborough

NBC's Jenna Pfeffer contributed to this report.

The outsiders (Paul, Sestak) defeat the insiders (Grayson, Specter)… Will Lincoln be the next incumbent to go down to defeat on June 8?... PA-12 shows that a good candidate and campaign can overcome a tough political environment… The Democrats' relatively good night… John Boozman's VERY GOOD night… Turnout down in Pennsylvania, but up in Kentucky… Does Mitch McConnell need to watch his back?... Blumenthal lives for another day, but now he has to worry about both Linda McMahon and the New York Times… And the Obama White House hosts its second state dinner (will there be any more party-crashers?)

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** The Outsiders: Last night's wins by Rand Paul (R) and Joe Sestak (D) weren't flukes. As we wrote yesterday, both men are a bit quirky, both are a bit unconventional, and both are relative political outsiders -- at least compared with their opponents. And those characteristics made them ideal candidates in a political environment where the public is dissatisfied with Congress, with the federal government, and with business as usual. The question for Paul and Sestak is whether their unconventional campaigns can succeed in a general election. As for last night's insiders, 30-year incumbent Arlen Specter (D), the longest-serving senator in Pennsylvania history, became the third incumbent in the last 10 days to go down to defeat (joining Republican Bob Bennett and Democrat Alan Mollohan). And in Kentucky, Paul beat Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell's handpicked candidate, Trey Grayson (R).

*** 'Victory over Washington, D.C.': Both Paul and Sestak struck outsider and anti-Washington messages in their victory speeches. Said Paul: "I have a message, a message from the Tea Party, a message that is loud and clear and does not mince words: We've come to take our government back." (Strikingly, Paul said the word "Kentucky" just once in his speech last night; that'll become a potential issue for him in the fall.) And here's what Sestak said: "This is what democracy looks like -- a win for the people over the establishment, over the status quo, victory over Washington D.C." As the Washington Post says, "Tuesday's results were the most powerful indicator to date of the voter anger and dissatisfaction that has shaped the political climate all year."

*** Spare some change? If you go back to Scott Brown's victory in January -- or even Obama's in 2008 -- voters still seem to be sending the message that they want change. This has been a frustrated and angry electorate since 2006, and that's why we're seeing this anger at Washington, on both sides. By the way, it's worth remembering that Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison lost her Texas gubernatorial primary back in March, so we have -- for now -- three incumbent senators who have lost this year: Hutchison, Bennett, and Specter. Which brings us to…

*** Run-off in Arkansas: Will Bill Halter in Arkansas be the next outsider to win? It's quite possible since Halter forced incumbent Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) into a June 8 run-off, with Lincoln getting just 45% to Halter's 43% (and another candidate, D.C. Morrison, got a surprising 13%). In the physics of politics, you have to assume that much of the Morrison vote would end up going to the challenger Halter and not the incumbent Lincoln. In fact, according to our back-of-the-envelope math, Halter wins in a two-way if he gets only 60% of the Morrison vote. Organized labor and progressive groups are touting their active campaigning -- and millions of dollars -- for Halter. But the biggest winner in Arkansas last night was clearly John Boozman (R), who was able to avoid a run-off in the GOP's crowded eight-candidate Senate primary by getting 53% of the vote. Folks, Boozman goes into the general election as the clear favorite to win this seat in November. In our Senate rankings, Arkansas has been sitting at No. 3 or No. 4, it could spike up to No. 2 at some point behind North Dakota -- and ahead of even Delaware.

*** Is this really 1994? Here's another lesson we learned from last night: A good campaign can overcome a tough political environment. In the only contest pitting a Democrat against a Republican, Mark Critz (D) defeated Tim Burns (R) in the special congressional election to replace the late Rep. Jack Murtha (D) in Pennsylvania. As we've pointed out, this isn't a good sign for the GOP in its quest to take back the House in November. Why? Because this was a race that Republicans -- in this kind of political environment -- should have been able to win. Yes, Democrats outnumber Republicans in the district. And, yes, the Dem turnout in the competitive Sestak-vs.-Specter primary helped Critz (though the statewide Dem turnout wasn't overly impressive). But this was the only congressional district in the country that John Kerry won in '04 but Obama lost in '08, meaning that it was ripe for the picking. Remember, back in 1994, Republicans were the ones winning House special elections. But can this be '94 all over again if the Democrats are the ones winning these things -- four straight this cycle (PA-12, NY-23, CA-10, NY-20) and seven since 2008 (IL-14, MS-1, LA-6). By the way, there was a ton of finger-pointing among House Republicans after they lost the NY-23 special late last year; it could be worse internally after last night.

*** A good night for the Dems? Indeed, it wouldn't be wrong to view all of last night's results as a good night for the Democratic Party. In addition to holding on to the Murtha seat, they ended up with two relatively blank-slate candidates (Sestak in Pennsylvania and Jack Conway in Kentucky) -- and maybe three (if Bill Halter wins the run-off in Arkansas) -- who might fare better in this anti-incumbent/anti-establishment environment. It's quite possible that Democrats end up losing all three Senate contests in November. But it's also hard to argue now that Specter, Mongiardo, and Lincoln would have been the party's stronger general-election candidates. And if the Democrats win one of these races in November, they'll consider that a victory of sorts.

*** Breaking down the turnout: Last night, turnout in the Pennsylvania Senate primary (slightly more than 1 million) was down from the equally competitive 2002 primary between Ed Rendell and Bob Casey (1.2 million). But turnout was up in Kentucky -- for both parties. The Dem Senate primary had 514,000 voters, compared with the 348,000 who turned out for the '07 Dem gubernatorial primary or the 285,000 who turned out for the '03 gubernatorial primary. And on the GOP side, Rand Paul got more votes last night (206,000) than the COMBINED votes for Ernie Fletcher or Ann Northup in the '07 GOP gubernatorial primary (202,000). The Paul turnout was all the more impressive considering this was a closed GOP primary, and that all voter registration changes had to be made by Dec. 31, 2009.

*** Does McConnell need to watch his back? Given Grayson's loss (and Paul's victory) last night, people are now beginning to ask this question: When does Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell need to start racking up some victories? And if he doesn't, could his leadership post be in jeopardy. Consider: He went all in on health care and lost; he tried to go all in on financial reform and appears to be losing; he lost -- badly -- in yesterday's Paul-Grayson primary; and his preferred candidate in the 2007 GOP gubernatorial primary in his state didn't win, either. When you combine McConnell's struggles with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's poor poll numbers, we might have the weakest pair of Senate leaders, politically, that we've seen in quite some time.

*** Blumenthal lives for another day: As for Richard Blumenthal's current struggles, his press conference yesterday, where he was surrounded by veterans who testified on his behalf, allowed him to live for another day. But there are still legitimate questions to ask here: Why is he glorifying his service in the Marine Reserves when that was essentially a route to avoid combat in the '60s and '70s? Why didn't he or his staff correct news accounts suggesting that he served in Vietnam? And why is no one still asking about his erroneous claim that he was captain of the Harvard swim team? Today, the New York Times yet another tough front-page piece on Blumenthal, as well as a hard-hitting editorial. Not only does Blumenthal have to contend with Linda McMahon and her millions, but he also now has to deal with the New York Times, which is a problem he may not be able to overcome.

*** Iran, Mexico, and Obama: In other news, "The Obama administration announced an agreement on Tuesday with other major powers, including Russia and China, to impose a fourth set of sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program, setting the stage for an intense tug of war with Tehran as it tries to avoid passage of the penalties by the full United Nations Security Council," the New York Times writes. "Daily Rundown" today interviews UN Ambassador Susan Rice on this issue. Also today, the president holds a press conference with Mexican President Calderon (at 11:50 am ET) and then hosts a state dinner for him (at 7:10 pm).

Countdown to HI special election: 3 days
Countdown to ID primary: 6 days
Countdown to CA, IA, ME, NJ, ND, SC, SD, and VA primaries, and AR run-off: 20 days:
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 167 days

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The New York Times says that the contests in Pennsylvania and Kentucky, as well as the one in Arkansas, "illustrated anew the serious threats both parties face from candidates who are able to portray themselves as outsiders and eager to shake up the system."

The Washington Post: "Tuesday's results were the most powerful indicator to date of the voter anger and dissatisfaction that has shaped the political climate all year."

Politico adds, "The anti-establishment, anti-incumbent fevers on display Tuesday are not new. The ideologically charged, grassroots activists flexing their muscle in this week's primary showdowns are the same breed as primary voters who four years ago stripped the Democratic nomination away from Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, who later won as an independent. What's now clear, in a way that wasn't before, is that these results reflect a genuine national phenomenon, not simply isolated spasms in response to single issues or local circumstances."

The A1, above-the-fold headline in The Boston Globe: "Tea Party triumphs in Ky. primary."

The New York Daily News' cover: "Ugly early: Bam's man Specter shown door in Pa.; Palin Tea Party pal upsets GOP regulars in Ky."  

The Daily News' DeFrank: "Tuesday's balloting is a fresh reminder of what all the combatants have understood for months: It's a lousy year to be a Democrat, an incumbent or President Obama. At the very least, Democratic majorities in the Senate and House will shrink significantly this November." (That, despite Sestak running stronger against Toomey than Specter in polling and Democrats' win in PA-12, a place Republicans should win if they hope to take back the House.) 

ARKANSAS: As Republican John Boozman wins the Republican Senate nomination, "Arkansas Sen. Blanche Lincoln failed to win the majority of votes in the Democratic primary Tuesday and now faces a three-week fight with Lt. Gov. Bill Halter for her party's nomination," the AP writes.

KENTUCKY: "Democratic leaders were relishing the Republican primary victory of tea party candidate Rand Paul, suggesting he will be an easy target for them in November for Kentucky's U.S. Senate seat," AP writes.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who endorsed Secretary of State Trey Grayson above Rand Paul, said of Paul's victory: "Dr. Paul ran an outstanding campaign which clearly struck a chord with Kentucky voters and I congratulate him on his impressive victory. Now Kentucky republicans will unite in standing against the overreaching policies of the Obama Administration. We are spiraling further into unsustainable debt and Kentucky needs Rand Paul in the U.S. Senate because he will work every day to stop this crippling agenda." Time writes: "Paul has said he might not support his fellow Kentuckian, McConnell, for a new term as party leader. And no sooner had Tuesday's results been posted than Richard Viguerie, a longtime conservative warrior, suggested McConnell step aside."

"In his acceptance speech, [Democratic nominee Jack] Conway addressed all the national–and international–attention on the state's Republican primary, in which Tea Party favorite Rand Paul was the victor, WFPL reports. "It's my understanding that the eyes of the national media have descended on our beloved Commonwealth of Kentucky tonight. I've got news for them: both Jack Conway and Dan Mongiardo got more votes than Rand Paul tonight…."  

PENNSYLVANIA: [Sen. Arlen] Specter, "famous as an electoral Houdini, finally found himself in a tight spot he could not escape -- standing for election in a year of voter hostility to Washington incumbents. Not even his surprise switch in parties 13 months ago could save him," the Philadelphia Inquirer writes.

"Sestak, a second-term congressman from suburban Philadelphia and a former Navy admiral, will face off against Republican nominee Pat Toomey in a campaign expected to focus on wallets, pocketbooks and kitchen tables from opposite ends of the political spectrum," AP writes.

"The role of endorser in chief isn't working so well for President Barack Obama," AP's Babington writes. "Sen. Arlen Specter became the fourth Democrat in seven months to lose a high-profile race despite the president's active involvement, raising doubts about Obama's ability to help fellow Democrats in this November's elections."

PA2010 on Mark Critz's win in the 12th district special election: It "was a victory for Democrats looking to cut against the narrative that the national political climate is working against them, one immediately hailed by party leaders from Harrisburg to Washington."

Roll Call on PA-12: "Democrat Mark Critz won a special election Tuesday in southwestern Pennsylvania, a symbolic and consequential victory that will buoy the spirits of a party that is defending dozens of competitive districts in this fall's midterm elections. ... Democrats promoted Critz's victory as a body blow to the Republican campaign to win a majority of House seats, noting that Pennsylvania's 12th voted narrowly for Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) in the 2008 presidential election and that Republicans would have a hard time gaining dozens of seats if they couldn't win Murtha's seat."

"Rep. Joe Sestak's defeat of Sen. Arlen Specter in the Democratic Senate primary and Democrat Mark Critz's special election victory took the lion's share of attention in Tuesday's balloting in Pennsylvania, but voters in a handful of Keystone State districts also set up competitive House matchups for November," Roll Call notes.

The AP: "Propelled by a new Arizona law, the debate over immigration reform will take center stage when President Barack Obama welcomes Mexico's Felipe Calderon to the White House and could overshadow the drug wars as the prime topic in talks between the two countries for the first time in years." 
 
"The White House sent the Senate Judiciary Committee thousands of pages of Kagan's speeches and writings, including her work as solicitor general and articles she wrote years ago for Princeton University's campus newspaper," AP writes. "The White House is trying to paint a fuller picture of Kagan, whose thin record of legal writings has left some senators suspicious of her views."

"President Obama met with 37 Jewish members of the House and Senate Tuesday to soothe concerns over recent rough spots in U.S.-Israeli relations," the New York Daily News reports.  
 
The New York Post reports that Obama said, "I walked through a minefield in the Middle East and I stepped on the land mines. I got some toes blown off." More: "Obama also said America's relationship with Israel is 'fundamentally strong' and the 'rift is greatly overstated.'" 

CONNECTICUT: "US Senate candidate Richard Blumenthal yesterday said that he had 'misspoken' in claiming more than once that he served in Vietnam, dismissing the furor that threatened to endanger a seemingly safe Democratic seat as a matter of 'a few misplaced words,'" The Boston Globe reports, adding, "Blumenthal is widely known for his dedication to veterans issues and has spoken at hundreds of events, many times about the mistreatment veterans received after returning from Vietnam." Yet: "The misstatements persisted for years even though Blumenthal is known to pore over press clips and call reporters to clarify or correct points."

"Party officials squashed early talk about trying to get Dodd to reconsider his retirement plan and jump back into the race," the New York Daily News writes. It adds, "Democratic operatives on Capitol Hill and the White House said professional wresting exec McMahon may have thrown Blumenthal a lifeline by bragging about her politically motivated hit. 'This was better than a wrestling move: She nailed him, but then learned that in politics you don't go out and take a bow after you hit your opponent over the head with a folding chair. It was unseemly,' a Capitol Hill Democratic operative said."

The Hill looks at the efforts in Connecticut to possibly replace Blumenthal days ahead of that state's party convention.

The New York Post on Blumenthal: "Conn. man!" But they're not done there. They also use "Semper Lie" in their headline. It points out: "He also did nothing to correct several fawning newspaper articles that credited him with serving in Vietnam."

FLORIDA: "Gov. Charlie Crist, up until last month a Republican, will step into a bastion of Democratic politics this weekend with a speech to the AFL-CIO of Florida as the union umbrella group vets candidates for possible endorsement," the Sarasota Herald Tribune reports.

INDIANA: Indiana's congressional delegation will have a different look in January with Rep. Mark Souder's decision to resign. He's the third of the state's nine congressmen to step down this year," AP notes. (The others: Reps. Steven Buyer and Brad Ellsworth. Sen. Evan Bayh also announced he's not running for reelection. Ellsworth is running for Bayh's seat.)

Here's lookin' at you, John Boehner: "After Rep. Mark Souder's (R-Ind.) confession Tuesday that he had an extra-martial affair with a staff member, House Democrats held their fire and chose not to ignite a new round of rhetorical attacks on Republican ethics -- for now," Roll Call reports. "Democratic aides warned, though, that they by no means plan to give GOP leaders a pass on the House's latest sex scandal, making it clear that they'll attempt to force Republican leaders to answer tough questions on what they knew about the affair and when they knew it, just as Republicans did following Rep. Eric Massa's resignation from the House."

MICHIGAN: Attorney General Mike Cox is up with his second ad against Rep. Pete Hoekstra. According to the Detroit Free Press, the ad accuses Hoekstra of "voting for the federal bailout of Wall Street banks and for raising the federal debt ceiling. It also promotes Cox's record of trimming costs by cutting his staff."

SOUTH CAROLINA: Gubernatorial candidate Rep. Gresham Barrett "has released a television ad the advocates an Arizona-style enforcement of federal immigration law in South Carolina," The State reports.

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Blanche Lincoln was unable to avoid a runoff tonight, per the AP, which is reporting that the race is headed for a one-on-one matchup between Lincoln and Lt. Gov. Bill Halter.

This does not bode well for Lincoln, who has been unable to get above 45% in the polls before tonight, and that is holding true again tonight.

With 43% in, she is up only 44%-42% with D.C. Morrison garnering 14%.

The question is where do those Morrison votes go now -- if they weren't going to vote for Lincoln in the primary the first time around, why would they vote for her in the June 8th runoff? It's a sell Lincoln will try to make over the next few weeks.

From NBC's Mark Murray
Republican Tim Burns has conceded to Democrat Mark Critz in the special election to fill the late Jack Murtha's (D) congressional seat in Pennsylvania. The AP still hasn't called the race, however.

With Critz's apparent victory, this becomes the SEVENTH-straight competitive special House contest that Democrats have won and the GOP has lost since 2008.

And as we pointed out in First Read this morning, this GOP loss -- in this environment -- raises REAL questions about the Republican Party's ability to take back in the House in November.

Why? If the GOP couldn't win here -- the only congressional seat that John Kerry won in '04 but Obama lost in '08 -- it's not going to have an easy time netting the 40 House seats in November it needs to retake the House.

*** Will The NRCC Keep Losing Special Elections? Over the past two election cycles -- in good times for the party, but also not-so good times -- Democrats have accomplished this feat: They've won six consecutive competitive House special elections (in IL-14, LA-6, MS-1, NY-20, NY-23, and CA-11). That streak could very well come to an end in today's other big contest: the toss-up special congressional race between Tim Burns (R) and Mark Critz (D) to replace the late Rep. Jack Murtha (D). But if Republicans lose this contest, it could be a potentially ominous sign for Republicans in their quest to retake the House. In this environment, if they can't win here -- the only district that John Kerry won in '04 but Obama lost in '08, yet where Dems still outnumber Republicans -- it raises questions about their ability to do the things, mechanically, they will need to pick up the 40 seats necessary to take back the House in November.

 

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Now that the AP has called the race for Joe Sestak, here's a look back at Specter's career:

ARLEN SPECTER FACTS
- First elected to the U.S. Senate in 1980
- Longest-serving senator in Pennsylvania history
- Switched parties to Democrat in April 2009
- He's no stranger to close elections

Prior Elections:
- 2004: 53%-42% over Rep. Joe Hoeffel; barely survived his primary, against -- Pat Toomey, by a 51%-49% margin, or about 17,000 votes out of more than a million. He spent $15 million in the primary. Campaign slogan was "Courage. Clout. Convictions.")
- 1998 won with 61%
- 1996 ran for president, but dropped out in 1995 before a primary or caucus
- 1992 won with 49%-46% after becoming a target of women's groups because of his questioning of Anita Hill during the Clarence Thomas Supreme Court confirmation hearings, leading to his almost losing the 1992 Senate race.
- 1986 won with 56%-43%
- 1980 won with 50%-48% (won primary 36%-33% over a former state party chairman, then defeated a low-spending Democrat)
- 1978 ran and lost race for governor in the GOP primary
- 1976 ran and lost race for Senate in the GOP primary
- 1973 lost reelection bid to district attorney
- 1969 won reelection as district attorney
- 1965 first won election as district attorney

Biographical:
- Grew up in Russell, KS -- also the home of Bob Dole.
- Father was a Jewish immigrant from the Ukraine. Father was a tailor and peddler who owned a junkyard.
- Moved to Philadelphia at age 17, attended UPENN.
- Served in the Air Force
- Graduated from Yale Law, returned to Philadelphia to practice.
- Worked the Warren Commission in 1964 investigating the death of John F. Kennedy as a top staffer. He helped develop the single-bullet theory.
- Credited more than anyone else for defeating the nomination of Robert Bork in 1987
- Urged President Bush not to nominate justices who would overturn Roe v. Wade as chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee. Because of that Majority Leader Bill Frist refused to endorse him.
- Was integral in the creation of the bipartisan "Gang of 14."
- Said the NSA's surveillance of Americans violated FISA and introduced a bill saying so.
- Called for habeas corpus rights for Guantanamo inmates
- Said Justice Dept would be better off if Alberto Gonzales resigned (after the US Atty firings scandal surfaced)
- Has pushed for medical research.
- Dealt with health problems: brain tumor, stage IV-B Hodgkin's lymphoma (underwent chemotherapy in 2005 and 2008). And he never missed a Senate session. 

Voting Record:
- Has bucked the party on numerous votes, most recently on the stimulus, which prompted his party switch.
- Also voted with Democrats on GOP-proposed tax cut in 1999, the minimum wage in 1999, the federal tobacco lawsuit in 2000, and overtime regulations in 2003 and 2005

SOURCE: Almanac of American Politics

From NBC's Andrea Mitchell
Two top Specter supporters tell NBC News that Arlen Specter cannot overcome Joe Sestak's lead in Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) to win this Pennsylvania Democratic primary.

The Democratic Party officials say that Specter's lead in Philadelphia will not be large enough, and they think that, by 11:00 pm ET, it will be over.

They are confident that the lead of the Democratic candidate in the special election to succeed the late John Murtha will hold up.

With more than half of precincts reporting, Sestak leads Specter, 53%-47%.

*** UPDATE *** The AP just called the race for Sestak.

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
The AP has called the Kentucky Democratic primary for state Attorney General Jack Conway. Conway leads 44%-43%, up by less than 8,000 votes, with almost all of the polls closed.

So that means your Kentucky Senate race field is set. It Conway vs. Rand Paul.

It's likely that handicappers tomorrow will make this seat a toss up.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee doesn't think so. They will point to the environment and the Republican leanings of the state.

*** UPDATE *** The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is out with its statement. Note the line of attack from Chairman Bob Menendez:

"Congratulations to Jack Conway on winning a hard-fought primary. Both Jack Conway and Dan Mongiardo deserve credit for waging thoughtful, aggressive campaigns. Tomorrow, we begin the general election and the choice for Kentucky voters could not be any starker. Jack Conway is a crusading attorney general who has taken on the special interests in Kentucky and will shake up Washington by doing the same in the United States Senate. Rand Paul would abolish the Department of Education, would disband the Federal Reserve, and would end farm subsidies for Kentucky's farmers. Rand Paul may love the national media spotlight but he has shown no interest in growing Kentucky's economy or creating new jobs. The people of Kentucky deserve a United States Senator who will fight every day for the state's middle class – and that is Jack Conway."

From NBC's Ali Weinberg
Republican Senate nominee Rand Paul (KY) gave his acceptance speech shortly after polls declared him the winner over Secretary of State Trey Grayson. Paul thanked his mother Carol and father, Texas Rep. Ron Paul, for "teaching me individual responsibility as well as what individual freedom is about."

The soundtrack as he took to the podium? Rush's "Freewill."