Good news/bad news for GOP in NBC/MSNBC/Telemundo poll on immigration… The poll shows that Latino voters are swinging widely for the Democrats, while their support for the GOP is dropping like a rock… Has the GOP learned the Pete Wilson lesson?... There are plenty of short-term (read: 2010) risks for Obama and the Democrats on immigration, too… Breaking down yesterday's testy Obama-Senate GOP meeting… The danger of the White House losing Bob Corker… Labrador fetches a win over Ward in Idaho… And the White House is sending Duncan and Messina to campaign for Giannoulias next month.

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** GOP and immigration: For the Republican Party, politically, there's good news and bad news in our new NBC/MSNBC/Telemundo poll on the subject of immigration. Let's start with the good news: The Arizona anti-illegal immigration law, passed by a GOP-led legislature and signed by a GOP governor, has been a short-term political winner. The poll shows that 61% of the public supports the law, and a Republican congressional candidate who backs the law beats a Democratic candidate who opposes it, 40%-26%. But here's the bad news: Latinos, once a semi-swing group of voters, now have swung overwhelmingly for President Obama and the Democratic Party, and younger Hispanics are moving to the Democrats in even greater numbers

*** Latinos aren't swing voters anymore: For example, 68% of Latinos approve of Obama's job (compared with 48% of overall respondents and 38% of whites), and they view the Democratic Party favorably by a 54%-21% score (versus 41%-40% among all adults and 34%-48% among whites). And their views of the Republican Party? In the poll, the GOP fav/unfav among Latinos is 22%-44%. What's more, Latinos think Democrats would do a better job than Republicans in protecting the interests of minorities (by 58%-11%), in representing the opportunity to move up the economic ladder (46%-20%), in dealing with immigration (37%-12%), and in promoting strong moral values (33%-23%). The only advantage they gave Republicans was in enforcing security along the border (31%-20%). And Latinos remain a sleeping -- yet growing -- political giant: 23% of them aren't registered voters (compared with 12% of whites and 16% of blacks), and

*** Dropping like a rock: It didn't use to be this way. In 2004, George W. Bush, the former governor of Texas, won some 40% of the Latino vote. But in 2006, that percentage for Republicans dropped to 30%, and it was 31% in '08. And check out these party identification averages among Latinos that our Hart (D)/McInturff (R) pollsters put together from our past NBC/WSJ polls; this chart puts together the YEARLY average of all Hispanics surveyed for each year (approximately 900 respondents are included in each yearly sample):

-- In 2004, Dems held a 22-point edge in party identification among Latinos (49%-27%)
-- In 2005, it was 24 points (48%-24%)
-- In 2006, it was 26 points (50%-22%)
-- In 2007, it was 30 points (52%-22%)
-- In 2008, it was 35 points (57%-22%)
-- In 2009, it was 31 points (50%-19%)
-- And so far in 2010, it has been 36 points (58%-22%).

*** The Pete Wilson lesson: Smart GOP strategists know this is a problem; the consensus is that Republicans need to capture AT LEAST 35-40% of the vote to win national contests. Yet looking at Republican primaries across the country, GOP candidates aren't looking at the long-term. In Arizona, John McCain is airing a TV ad declaring "complete the danged fence." In California, Steve Poizner is comparing Meg Whitman to Mexico's president in a TV ad criticizing her opposition to the Arizona law, while Whitman has a TV ad saying she "absolutely" opposes amnesty. And in Alabama, gubernatorial candidate Tim James says, "This is Alabama, we speak English. If you want to live here, learn it." Pete Wilson is an important lesson here, says co-pollster Peter Hart (D): In presidential races from 1952 to 1988, Dems won California just once. After Wilson's Prop. 187, Republicans haven't come close to winning the nation's biggest state. The next California could be Texas, and the GOP can't afford to have that big state become competitive.

*** The risks for Democrats, too: Of course, this doesn't mean that Latino voters won't hesitate to hold Obama and the Democrats accountable, either. In our poll, just 32% of all adults and 45% of Latinos approve of Obama's job on immigration. And yesterday, after his testy meeting with Senate Republicans, the Obama White House authorized the deployment of 1,200 National Guard troops to the border. And what if Obama is unable to pass comprehensive immigration reform, with 60% of the country favoring it, according to our poll? Could the Latino vote swing back?

*** The testy Obama-Senate GOP meeting: Speaking of that testy Obama-Senate Republican meeting yesterday, while perhaps no one should have expected a lovefest, it was even more contentious than we might have expected. And the tone-setter was GOP Sen. Bob Corker, still upset over being dealt out of the bipartisan financial regulatory reform talks. Corker told the president that his appearance came with a "degree of audacity." And Corker added to NBC News in a phone interview that he thought the president's words about bipartisanship didn't match his actions, pointing to financial reform. Corker's particularly angry at the White House because, as he notes, he made most of his Republican colleagues (even those in leadership) upset with his personal push to stay negotiating with Democrats for a bipartisan deal. But he felt at the end that the White House pulled the rug out from under him.

*** The danger of losing Corker: For their part, the White House insists Republicans like Corker have a different definition of bipartisanship than the president does, and that divide is what creates these party-line votes. One word of warning to the White House on Corker: He's not Jim DeMint; he's been one of group of, say, 10 GOP senators who have voted with the White House on occasion. And if there are bad feelings, it won't be helpful to them especially POST-November, when his Senate margin is a LOT closer than it is now. There are other press reports that Susan Collins told the president after the meeting that she seconded Corker's frustration. Bottom line: If the relationship with the Corker-Collins wing of the Senate GOP caucus stays this bad, there's almost ZERO chance that either energy or immigration is being taken up by this Senate this year.

*** Top kill: Today, BP will try the "Top Kill" procedure to stop the underwater oil spill in the Gulf. Said BP CEO Tony Hayward on "TODAY": "Over the last 12 hours continuing through the night, we have continued to take pressure readings and establish flow paths… Later this morning I will review that with the team and I will make a final decision as to whether or not we should proceed." Hayward added, "Our expectations are that if we determine we should proceed, it would happen today. I have to say that it would be a day or two before we can have certainty this worked." Meanwhile, First Read has confirmed that President Obama is expected to hold a news conference on the BP spill tomorrow before heading out to Louisiana on Friday.

*** Labrador fetches a win: And here's a lesson for all congressional candidates: If you're facing plagiarism and other charges heading into an election – like Idaho GOP congressional Vaughn Ward was – you're probably not going to win. "Idaho state Rep. Raul Labrador won a Republican primary Tuesday in the state's 1st district, capping a stunning come-from-behind victory over Vaughn Ward, a Marine Corps veteran and former Senate aide who was highly touted by the national GOP," CQ writes.

*** More midterm news: In California, Tom Campbell and Carly Fiorina participated in a debate yesterday… In Colorado, in a sign of trouble for Jane Norton, former state Sen. Tom Wiens "is ending his Senate campaign and endorsing county prosecutor Ken Buck (R) for the seat incumbent Michael Bennet (D) is defending," CQ reports… And in Illinois, the White House is sending Education Secretary Arnie Duncan and Deputy Chief of Staff Jim Messina to campaign for Alexi Giannoulias in June. 
  
Countdown to CA, IA, ME, NJ, ND, SC, SD, and VA primaries, and AR run-off: 13 days:
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 160 days

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Here are the results from our brand-new NBC/MSNBC/Telemundo poll on immigration: "White and Latino Americans are deeply divided over immigration, their allegiances to the nation's political parties and their opinions about President Barack Obama, according to a new NBC/MSNBC/Telemundo poll. And in the wake of Arizona's controversial anti-illegal immigration law, the survey suggests that Republicans could get an immediate political boost, but may face a long-term problem among Latinos, the nation's fastest-growing demographic group."

"'Are there areas where the Republicans can make short-term gains? Yes,' says Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart, who conducted this poll with GOP pollster Bill McInturff. 'But the fear is that they have long-term losses.'"

"President Obama will deploy 1,200 National Guard troops and request an extra $500 million to secure the Mexican border, his administration said Tuesday, a move dismissed by Republicans as insufficient to win their cooperation on an overhaul of the nation's immigration system," the Washington Post reports.

More: "Obama's proposal came after a testy, closed-door meeting with Senate Republicans on Capitol Hill in which the president clashed with his 2008 campaign rival, Sen. John McCain (Ariz.), according to people present. The two sparred over creating a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants -- something McCain previously supported -- and a new Arizona law that requires police to identify illegal immigrants. 'I said we needed to secure the border first,' McCain recounted after Obama's visit to the GOP luncheon. On the Arizona law, McCain said, 'I pointed out that members of his administration who have not read the law have mischaracterized the law.'" 

The New York Times adds that the move "also reflected political pressure in the president's own party with midterm election campaigns under way and with what is expected to be a tumultuous debate on overhauling immigration law coming up on Capitol Hill." 

"Speaking at a series of fundraisers for Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer, Obama chided Republicans for sitting on the sidelines and putting politics ahead of the needs of the American people. 'There are members of their base who think if somebody even smiles at me, they think, 'You're a traitor, you smiled at Obama,'' the president said."

The New York Times on Obama's meeting yesterday with Senate Republicans: "By nearly all accounts, pent-up frustrations boiled over as the president and the very lawmakers who have consistently opposed much of his agenda engaged in spirited and at times confrontational exchanges over immigration, spending, White House tactics and other issues during a private 75-minute session."

"Senator John McCain, Mr. Obama's former presidential rival, lashed out at the administration for its portrayal of the new immigration law in his home state of Arizona. And Senator Bob Corker of Tennessee suggested that the administration had been less than sincere in trying to seek a bipartisan deal on the financial regulatory overhaul, which was passed last week with just four Republican votes." 

Roll Call's headline on the meeting: "Republican Senators Call Obama Insulated, Aloof." Sen. John Cornyn, chair of the NRSC, alleged, "It's clear that he is relying on other people for the information and the positions that are being taken with regard to legislation on the floor, and I would say it appeared to be he was somewhat insulated from what actually is going on."

Republicans did not react well to Obama's meeting with them yesterday. Sen. Pat Roberts (R-KS): "He needs to take a Valium before he comes in and talks to Republicans. He's pretty thin-skinned."

Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS) "described the meeting as 'testy,' and fellow GOP Senator John Thune of South Dakota called it a 'lively discussion.'"

Sen. Bob Corker accused the president of "duplicity": "I've always found it's good to be frank. If you have an opportunity to talk to someone, you should talk about what's on your mind," Corker said, but "he questioned 'the audacity' of Obama's asking for Republican help after bipartisan talks on financial reform broke down and his landmark health-care bill passed solely on Democratic votes. 'My question is again: How can you reconcile that duplicity?' Corker said."

The president's response: "We had a good, frank discussion on a whole range of issues."

Going West… The Washington Post on Democrats' challenge of keeping "voters who helped the party turn Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico from Republican to Democratic in the presidential election just months after the party's national convention in Denver... [Voters are] worried about federal spending. They're anxious about a new health care law in a region where a doctor can be several hours' drive away. They're afraid that Democrats' climate-change proposals will kill jobs in oil and gas fields. Illegal immigration dominates the debate, and opponents of Arizona's new immigration law don't see a salient alternative coming from Democrats." 

ALABAMA: Griffith's test: "In one week, former Democratic Rep. Parker Griffith will face Alabama voters for the first time as a Republican," Roll Call writes. "The election comes exactly two weeks after Democratic primary voters rejected this cycle's higher-profile party-switcher, Sen. Arlen Specter (Pa.)." 

CALIFORNIA: "The two leading candidates in California's GOP primary for U.S. Senate on Tuesday defended their past support for certain tax measures that proved unpopular with voters," the AP writes. "Fiorina got in the best zinger of the night when she complained about her opponents trying to distort her record…'I would say it's taxing my patience, but I don't want to give Tom Campbell another idea for a tax increase,' she said."

COLORADO: "Former Colorado state Sen. Tom Wiens (R) is ending his Senate campaign and endorsing county prosecutor Ken Buck (R) for the seat incumbent Michael Bennet (D) is defending," CQ reports.

KENTUCKY: Rand Paul got back on the campaign trail. Paul, an opthamologist, donned scrubs at a friendly event and on his first week as nominee for the Senate, he quoted Dickens: "It was the best of it times. It was the worst of times."

IDAHO: Raul Labrador upset establishment GOP pick Vaughn Ward in the primary in the first congressional district in Idaho, 48%-39%. Ward's nearly 20-point lead evaporated in a month after a series of missteps. Labrador had the backing of the Boise Tea Party, but Ward had the backing of the NRCC and Sarah Palin. Labrador goes into the general election now seriously underfunded against incumbent freshman Democrat Walt Minnick. This race is a toss up, but it is yet another seat that Republicans should win, but may be difficult to pull off and that could leave them short of control of the House. Pennies add up.

The AP: "Labrador won the race despite a significant fundraising disadvantage and a campaign endorsement for Ward by former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin. Labrador's victory sets up a battle with first-term Democrat Walt Minnick in November." And the race wasn't even close: "With 435 of 462 precincts reporting, Labrador collected 48.1 percent of the vote compared to 38.8 percent for Ward."

TEXAS: "Texas Gov. Rick Perry's condemnation of the federal government and championing of states' rights is moving into print with the planned publication of a book he's writing in time for this year's midterm elections," the Dallas Morning News writes. In the book, Perry "will argue that federal bailouts, increased spending and an overhauled health care system are examples of how Washington, D.C., is expanding its reach," an announcement said yesterday.

WASHINGTON: AP looks at Dino Rossi's chances in the Senate race: "Dino Rossi is best known for losing one of the closest governor's races in U.S. history. Now Republicans hope he can ride a GOP tide and unseat Washington state's powerful senior senator, Democrat Patty Murray." 

From NBC's Athena Jones and Domenico Montanaro
President Obama will deploy 1,200 troops to the Southwest border between the United States and Mexico, according to a statement from an administration official.

Obama will request $500 million "in supplemental funds for enhanced border protection and law enforcement activities," including "intelligence; surveillance and reconnaissance support; intelligence analysis; immediate support to counternarcotics enforcement; and training capacity until Customs and Border Patrol can recruit and train additional officers and agents to serve on the border."

The White House also reiterated in the statement that the administration will "work with Congress to fix our broken immigration system through comprehensive reform."

Here's the full statement:

Additional Support for Strategic and Integrated Southwest Border Security:

As part of his comprehensive plan to secure the Southwest border, President Obama will request $500 million in supplemental funds for enhanced border protection and law enforcement activities. The President will also deploy up to an additional, requirements-based 1,200 National Guard troops to the border to provide intelligence; surveillance and reconnaissance support; intelligence analysis; immediate support to counternarcotics enforcement; and training capacity until Customs and Border Patrol can recruit and train additional officers and agents to serve on the border. Funds will be utilized to enhance technology at the border, share information and support with State, Local, and Tribal law enforcement, and increase DoJ and DHS presence and law enforcement activities at the border, to include increased agents, investigators, and prosecutors, as part of a multi-layered effort to target illicit networks trafficking in people, drugs, illegal weapons, and money. Deploying additional Guard as part of the President's strategic and integrated approach will provide immediate enhancement to the unprecedented and ongoing border protection and security efforts that over the last 16 months have increased pressure on illegal trafficking organizations through record seizures of illegal weapons and bulk cash transiting from the United States to Mexico, resulted in significant seizures of illegal drugs headed into the United States, reduced illegal immigration into the United States, and lower average violent crime statistics in states along the Southwest Border. It will also help build on and complement the strong security partnership with Mexico on display during last week's State Visit. We will also continue to work with Congress to fix our broken immigration system through comprehensive reform, which would provide lasting and dedicated resources by which to secure our borders and make our communities safer.

From NBC's Chuck Todd
The White House is now publicly acknowledging that the president will travel to the Gulf region on Friday; details to be released shortly.

On Friday, the president is SCHEDULED to already be in Chicago.

From NBC's Ali Weinberg
President Obama today urged Congress to quickly pass a newly announced package of loans, credits and tax incentives that the White House says will spur job growth among small businesses.

At an event honoring small-business owners, who expanded their companies using Recovery Act loans, President Obama highlighted tax credits and Recovery Act lending programs that his administration has already put in place, but stressed that more had to be done to spur job growth in small business, which he called "the driving force behind this recovery."

The White House unveiled several new proposals it would be sending to Congress, including a $30 billion fund for community banks to lend to small businesses; a $20 billion fund to be used by state programs to encourage private lenders to extend more credit to small businesses; and an elimination of all capital gains taxes on small business investment.

Obama urged Congress to put aside partisan beliefs and act in the interest of getting Americans back to work.

"This shouldn't be an issue of big government versus small government," he said. "This is an issue of putting our government on the side of the small business owners who create most of the jobs in this country."

Addressing the crisis foremost on the administration's plate, Obama also mentioned the Small Business Association's efforts to support economic development in the communities hardest hit by the BP oil spill.

"From the very beginning of this disaster, the SBA has acted quickly to assist fishermen and fishing-dependent small businesses. They're offering low-interest loans and deferrals of existing loans. And while small businesses are encouraged to file claims with BP, these loans and deferrals can provide much needed temporary assistance."

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Labor unions continue to try and drive the stake through incumbent Blanche Lincoln politically ahead of the June 8th runoff with Lt. Gov. Bill Halter.

An official for the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees, AFL-CIO, union says it bought $855,000 worth of TV ad time through June 7th for a spot tying Lincoln to... Washington.

It is ironic considering the ad is paid for by AFSCME, which is based in Washington.

Asked about it, AFL-CIO spokesman Eddie Vale said, "Thousands and thousands of members who live and work in Arkansas that voted to support Halter."

Vale contends this is not a case of a DC union telling Arkansans what to do, but the other way around. "We don't tell them what to do," he claimed. "They tell us what to do about endorsements. So AFSCME members in Arkansas, were part of the vote by the Arkansas State Federation, who voted to endorse Halter. Once they made that decision we endorsed and helped in the campaign. In political endorsements/races we nationally, ONLY implement what that state decides to do."

A female voice with a slight drawl says in the ad, "When Blanche Lincoln moved her family full time to Washington, DC, she quickly became part of the place. And that's the problem."

It alleges further that "She was on the move all right, cozying up to the lobbyists, their big money and influence -- Goldman Sachs and the other Wall Street banks, big insurance companies like Blue Cross, big oil insiders -- BP, Texaco, and Amoco and the like. She took their money, did their bidding, moved up -- the Washington way. Then voted to send our good-paying Arkansas jobs like China and Mexico, used our money to bail out her Wall Street buddies.

And: "The more Blanche Lincoln voted with the Washington insiders, the further she moved away from us. How far away? Just days ago, she didn't cast a ballot in Arkansas because she'd already asked to vote absentee -- in Virginia. Hmmpf."

It concludes: "Blanche Lincoln packed up and left us years ago. Maybe it's time to send her packing for good."

"When Blanche Lincoln moved her family full time to Washington, DC, she quickly became part of the place. And that's the problem.  ... "The more Blanche Lincoln voted with the Washington insiders, the further she moved away from us."

From NBC's Jim Miklaszewski
While Defense Secretary Robert Gates is still opposed to the repeal of "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" until after the Defense Department completes a comprehensive review of the implications, he says today he's willing to accept the compromise amendment put forth by the Democrats in Congress.

Pentagon spokesman Geoff Morrell issued the following statement:

Secretary Gates continues to believe that ideally a DoD review should be completed before there is any legislation to repeal the "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" law. With Congress having indicated that is not possible, the secretary can accept the language in the proposed amendment.

While the language indicates Gates bowed to pressure from the White House, Morrell refused to answer any questions from Pentagon reporters.

From NBC's Chuck Todd and Athena Jones
White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel, in Israel on a private family visit, will meet with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday, May 26, for an informal discussion of a range of issues in the U.S.-Israel bilateral relationship, according to a White House official.

On Thursday, May 27, he and his family will also visit with President Simon Peres.

From NBC's Doug Adams
At a hearing this morning before Senate Enviornmental and Natural Resources committee this morning, an Interior Department official clarified the issue of whether the administration had approved new drilling permits in the past month.

David Hayes, deputy secretary of the Interior, explained that no permits for "initial" drilling had been issued in the past month -- that is, a permit "to put a new hole in the ground." 

He said the Department issued a halt any new APD permits (Application for Permit to Drill) and that none have been issued since April 20th, the date of the Deepwater Horizon accident.

However, there is a second kind of drilling permit, called a "bypass permit" that a company may ask for -- often for safety reasons if they have to move or make changes to an ongoing drilling operation. Those kinds of permits -- for ongoing operations -- have been approved in the past month.

Administration officials also testified that, as of yesterday, BP had spent $760 million for the cleanup effort so far and the government had spent more than $72 million so far. The officials said they intended to have BP reimburse taxpayers for the government money spent.

From NBC's Jenna Pfeffer
In a conference call yesterday, Democratic pollster Al Quinlan said that, according to likely voters in a Greenberg Quinlan Rosner poll, "Dick Blumenthal is the one who is going to stand up for ordinary people…he's a fighter."

In spite of the controversy over whether Blumenthal (D), Connecticut's attorney general, mischaracterized his Vietnam service last week, the new Democratic poll  shows Blumenthal still ahead of Republican opponent Linda McMahon (R-CT) by 15 points, 55-40%. Quinlan said McMahon may not as popular as she would hope, despite the $15 million running ads. She said she intends to spend $50 million.

In the poll, Blumenthal retained a net-positive favorable/unfavorable rating of 55/28. This was despite the fact that 91% of the likely voters said that they had heard, seen, or read about the recent scandal surrounding Blumenthal. 

Quinlan emphasized that this shows how solid the Democratic base is in Connecticut, as Blumenthal got a 95% favorability rating among Democrats. It is also striking that he got a 57% favorability rating among unaffiliated voters. He had a 23% rating among Republicans. Quinlan said Blumenthal leads among people of all ages and sexes.

The poll was conducted through live telephone interviews last Wednesday and Thursday, May 19-20. There were 602 respondents and a 4% margin of error.

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
A majority of Americans do not think the administration has done a good job handling the oil spill crisis in the Gulf of Mexico, according to a new Pew/National Journal poll.

"A total of 57% of voters say they rate the admin's handling of the spill as only fair (31%) or poor (26%). Only 31% say the admin is doing an excellent or good job," Hotline writes.

And it's even worse for BP: "Fully 70% of voters say the company is handling the matter poorly or only fairly, while just 19% five the company positive marks."

From NBC's Mark Murray
In a speech today, Connecticut Senate candidate Rob Simmons (R) said he was scaling back his campaign, essentially ceding the GOP primary contest to Linda McMahon, who won the state GOP convention on Friday.

That would set up a general election contest between McMahon and Richard Blumenthal (D) for Chris Dodd's (D) Senate seat.

Simmons said, "Speaking for myself and my family ... we understand the mathematical reality of competing against an opponent with unlimited financial resources who has already invested over 16 and a half million dollars in this campaign - by far more than any senate candidate in the country - and who has an unlimited ability to continue spending at an extraordinary rate."
 
More Simmons: "On this basis we have decided, reluctantly and prayerfully, to scale back the campaign. We will release staff to pursue other opportunities and curtail campaign activities. This is not an easy decision or a happy decision. But we believe it is the right decision."

A Republican source observing the race says that, by scaling back, Simmons' campaign will cease completely, but he's remaining on the ballot because of the volatility in the race -- on both the GOP and Democratic sides. 

Below is the entire speech...

"For the past sixteen months my family has been actively engaged in a campaign to bring a Connecticut Republican to the U.S. Senate this November. We have been joined in this endeavor by an Army of donors, volunteers and well wishers, a solid array of party leaders and an extraordinarily talented campaign staff.

"We all felt strongly that I had the experience, qualifications and opportunity to be that Connecticut Republican Senate candidate. On this basis we set as an important goal to win the Republican Nomination at the Convention on May 21st. We fell just short of that goal last Friday.

"For some time now I have expressed the hope that all the Connecticut Republican candidates for the U.S. Senate would agree to unite behind the convention winner to avoid a divisive and expensive primary. No one accepted the challenge. The Simmons for Senate campaign has every right to proceed with a primary challenge based on our convention record of winning 46% of the vote.

"Speaking for myself and my family, however, we understand the mathematical reality of competing against an opponent with unlimited financial resources who has already invested over 16 and a half million dollars in this campaign - by far more than any senate candidate in the country - and who has an unlimited ability to continue spending at an extraordinary rate.

"On this basis we have decided, reluctantly and prayerfully, to scale back the campaign. We will release staff to pursue other opportunities and curtail campaign activities. This is not an easy decision or a happy decision. But we believe it is the right decision.

"In my life of public service - in the U.S. Army, the CIA, the U.S. Senate Staff and, yes, even in elective politics - I have always tried to put the public good ahead of private gain. It is this sense of service above self, nurtured in my early days as a young soldier in Vietnam, has been my motivating force for the past 40 years. That is what motivates me to make this decision now.

"As a party endorsed candidate in ten races under the Connecticut Republican banner, and a winner of eight, I can never fully thank the many good people who have supported me over the years. They include members of my own party as well as Independents and Democrats, all of whom have come together across party lines with a sense of working for the common good of the people we serve.

"I can never repay my family and friends, near and far, who have been with me under the most trying circumstances, and who have shared in the thrilling victories and the agonizing defeats.

"While my name will remain on the primary ballot, in the coming months I will devote myself to helping other Republican candidates for public office who I believe will bring to Connecticut and the Nation the leadership we need at this most difficult time

Rossi's expected announcement expands the Senate GOP playing field to 11 seats… Tonight, Obama heads to one of them -- California -- to raise money for Barbara Boxer… Rob Simmons is expected to end his Senate candidacy, setting up a Blumenthal-McMahon general election… Simmons would become the third NRSC recruit not win the GOP nomination (so beware, Dino Rossi)… House GOP leaders hold their Great American Speak-out… It's Primary Day in Idaho, and all eyes on the GOP primary in ID-1… Polls there close at 10:00 pm ET… And a DGA-led group goes on the attack against Kasich in Ohio.

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** Senate state of play: First Read has confirmed that, in Washington state, twice-failed gubernatorial candidate Dino Rossi (R) is expected to announce his bid on Wednesday to challenge Sen. Patty Murray (D). Rossi's entry now gives the GOP 11 pick-up opportunities this cycle (in AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, IL, IN, NV, ND, PA and WA), which is enough to win back control of the Senate. But in order to do that, Republicans essentially need to run the table and also win the GOP-held seats that Democrats have put in play (FL, KY, MO, NH, and OH). So Republicans need everything to break their way to regain the Senate. And while that may seem like a tall order, remember that as we've seen in past cycles ('02, '04, '06, '08), competitive races tend to break in one direction. One thing is for sure: These 16 potentially competitive races make up one heck of a Senate battleground map. It's easily one of the largest Senate maps we've seen in more than a decade. John Cornyn has done his job -- which is to expand the playing field.

*** Barack-O-Bama, the San Francisco treat: This expanded state of play is the reason why President Obama heads to San Francisco later today for multiple fundraisers for Sen. Barbara Boxer and the DSCC. In fact, this is Obama's second trip in the last two months to help Boxer, and you can bet that Obama now will have to fly out to the West Coast again to raise money for Patty Murray. By the way, Obama has a pretty busy day. He delivers remarks on proposals for small business jobs at 11:15 am ET. He then addresses the Senate GOP caucus on Capitol Hill at 12:05 pm (which is closed to press). And then he meets with President Napolitano of Italy at 2:00 pm.

*** Simmons expected to end campaign: While Senate Republicans are gaining one candidate, it appears that they're losing another. At 9:00 am ET, Connecticut Senate candidate Rob Simmons (R), a former member of Congress, is making an announcement on the future of his campaign. And all signs seem to be suggesting that he'll end his candidacy. Simmons' statement today comes after losing at the Connecticut GOP convention to Linda McMahon on Friday, although Simmons vowed to stay in the race after that defeat. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee reminds us that if Simmons drops out, he'll become the third NRSC recruit to not win the GOP nomination, joining Charlie Crist (who's now running as an indie) and Trey Grayson (who lost to Rand Paul). So beware, Dino Rossi -- indeed, Sarah Palin already has backed another Washington state candidate, Clint Didier. Still, when looking at the Cornyn/GOP recruits, they probably picked the right folks for general elections. So it's more a sign of just how hard both the Democratic White House and the Republican congressional leadership are having this year convincing its grassroots of who they want.

*** The great American Speak-Out: At 10:30 am ET, House Republican leaders are holding an event to unveil "America Speaking Out," an effort to engage Americans across the country and give them a voice in creating the GOP's campaign platform for the fall elections. As the Washington Post writes, "Republicans, aware that some of the anti-Washington fervor among the public is aimed at both parties, don't want to simply put out a formal agenda without buy-in from voters, particularly conservatives. So, along with the [Web] site, House Republicans will hold town hall meetings around the country starting next week. They want to use this process to get ideas for the 'Contract With America'-style policy document they are set to release closer to the election." Democrats are calling the effort "yet another Republican taxpayer funded rebranding effort designed to return to the failed Bush agenda." 

*** Sunlight on my shoulders, makes me happy: By the way, a Washington Post editorial perhaps makes the best point we've seen regarding the allegations that the White House offered Joe Sestak a job to keep him from challenging Arlen Specter. The editorial argues that the "White House position that everyone should just trust it and go away is unacceptable from any administration; it is especially hypocritical coming from this one… This response would hardly have satisfied those who were upset during the previous administration about the firing of U.S. attorneys. If there was nothing improper, why not all that sunlight Mr. Obama promised?" And here's one more point: If nothing improper happened, wouldn't sunlight stop a lot of the conspiracy theories about this that are now surfacing? 

*** My Private Idaho: Idaho holds its primaries today, and the sole race to watch -- the GOP primary for ID-1 -- could shed some additional light on the battle for House control. The primary pits Marine reservist Vaughn Ward, the establishment pick, against Tea Party-endorsed state Assemblyman Raul Labrador, who is gaining fast in the polls. (Labrador also has the backing of former GOP Rep. Bill Sali, the daughter of former GOP Rep. Helen Chenoweth, Idaho Right to Life, and much of the state legislature.) After a series of missteps, Ward has seen what was almost a 20-point lead all but evaporate in the past month as a Mason-Dixon poll shows Ward at 31% and Labrador at 28% (with 37% undecided). The winner will take on Dem incumbent Walt Minnick, who defeated Sali in 2008. Given Minnick's freshman status and the national environment, Republicans are targeting this seat, which McCain won with more than 60% of the vote. But Minnick is running a strong race. "He's had the best month of any D freshman by far," said David Wasserman, the Cook Political Report's House editor. Polls are open from 10:00 am ET to 10:00 pm ET.

*** Palin's influence on the line: As was the case in PA-12 last week, if Republicans are unable to win this kind of seat in November, it might be difficult to see how they gain the 39-40 seats necessary to take back the House. Sarah Palin -- who was born in Idaho and eventually graduated from the University of Idaho -- campaigned last week for Ward, despite the Boise Tea Party's support for Labrador. Ward is now at least the third candidate Palin has backed who isn't exactly a Tea Party favorite. The others: Carly Fiorina (California Senate) and John McCain (in Arizona).

*** More midterm news: In California, Meg Whitman has a new TV ad touting endorsements from Condi Rice and Mitt Romney, Ben Smith reports… And in Ohio, Politico writes that "Building a Stronger Ohio, an outside Democratic group led by the Democratic Governors Association, is set to air a television ad this week attacking former Cong. John Kasich, the Republican challenging incumbent Gov. Ted Strickland (D)."

Countdown to CA, IA, ME, NJ, ND, SC, SD, and VA primaries, and AR run-off: 14 days:
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 161 days

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Everyone's getting frustrated, the Washington Post says. "The tenuous alliance among the Obama administration, the oil firm BP and Gulf Coast officials was visibly fraying on Monday, with exasperation on all sides mounting as oil from a deep-water gusher began lapping at the region's environmentally fragile shoreline. Meanwhile, the administration faced growing questions about whether it should be taking more control of the situation, rather than ceding so much of the decision-making about stopping the oil spill to the company that created it." 

"On Tuesday, President Barack Obama will ask Senate Republicans to set aside their objections to his broad immigration goals," The Hill reports. "The lunchtime meeting with the GOP conference comes as Senate Democrats and Republicans gird for a battle over immigration during debate on a $58.8 billion emergency supplemental bill."

"President Obama has endorsed a 'don't ask, don't tell' compromise between lawmakers and the Defense Department, the White House announced Monday, an agreement that may sidestep a key obstacle to repealing the military's policy banning gay men and lesbians from serving openly in the armed forces," the Washington Post front-pages. "The compromise was finalized in meetings Monday at the White House and on Capitol Hill. Lawmakers will now, within days, vote on amendments that would repeal the Clinton-era policy, with a provision ensuring that any change would not take effect until after the Pentagon completes a study about its impact on troops. That study is due to Congress by Dec. 1." 

The New York Times adds, "It was not clear whether the deal had secured the votes necessary to pass the House and Senate, but the agreement removed the Pentagon's objections to having Congress vote quickly on repealing the contentious 17-year-old policy, which bars gay men and lesbians from serving openly in the armed services... [E]ven if the measure passes, the policy cannot not change until after Dec. 1, when the Pentagon completes a review of its readiness to deal with the changes. Mr. Obama, his defense secretary and the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff would also be required to certify that repeal would not harm readiness."   

The Times also writes that even after his successful shepherding of the Senate financial reform legislation through the Senate, Chris Dodd still isn't that popular back at home. "Given the yin-and-yang dynamic that governs today's political landscape, Mr. Dodd offers a basic object lesson: the more entrenched someone is in Washington, the less popular he is at home. That lesson applies to a growing number of incumbents on Capitol Hill -- the latest being Senator Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania, who was defeated in a Democratic primary last Tuesday. ("We came in the same day," Mr. Dodd said with some wistfulness.)"

"Raul Labrador and Vaughn Ward lead a crowd of GOP candidates who are vying to take on freshman Rep. Walt Minnick (D-Idaho) -- and tea party activists are deeply divided over which candidate deserves their support," Politico writes. "Minnick, who is unopposed in the Democratic primary, was endorsed last month by the Tea Party Express -- the only Democrat in Congress to receive the national group's support. The mid-April endorsement surprised even Minnick, who never courted the tea party support but nevertheless said he was 'pleased' to have their backing."

"Can conservative, tea party backers in Idaho's 1st Congressional District muster enough support to lift state Rep. Raul Labrador to an upset over Iraq veteran Vaughn Ward, who used his significant fundraising lead to buy television ads to rail against big government and the federal deficit?" the AP asks ahead of the Republican primary election today.

Roll Call: "Republican officials in Washington will be nervously watching the results of today's primary in Idaho's 1st district, where their highly touted candidate is struggling to secure the GOP nomination to challenge Rep. Walt Minnick (D). Vaughn Ward, a Marine Corps veteran and former CIA official and Senate aide, has long been promoted by the National Republican Congressional Committee, which made him one of its vaunted first 10 'Young Guns.' But a string of stumbles by Ward's campaign has turned what should have been an easy primary win into an uncomfortably close race with state Rep. Raul Labrador, a staunch conservative who is running as a political outsider unafraid to take on his party's establishment."

It's just not good news for Ward when this is the highest story in the paper about today's election: "Three hours after the Vaughn Ward campaign e-mailed a last-minute appeal for votes Monday, Sen. Mike Crapo called on the 1st District GOP candidate to correct the e-mail's "inaccurate impression" that Crapo endorses Ward. Ward apparently did not respond to Crapo's suggestion and declined repeated requests from the Idaho Statesman for comment."

Ward's campaign said his event with Sarah Palin helped raise between $40,000 and $50,000.

The cover of the Idaho Statesman isn't the primary today, but a Mason-Dixon poll showing broad statewide support for the state's lawsuit against the health-care law.

ARKANSAS: "In the days following Tuesday's Democratic Senate primary election, the Arkansas political class has been consumed by a question: Who the heck is D.C. Morrison, and how did he capture 13 percent of the vote?" Politico asks. "Morrison's performance has handed [Lieutenant Gov. Bill] Halter a fresh argument on the stump: More than 55 percent of Democratic primary participants voted for someone other than [Sen. Blanche] Lincoln."

CALIFORNIA: Meg Whitman's new ad, touting the endorsements of Mitt Romney and Condoleezza Rice, represents "a markedly different tone from the ground on which most of the [gubernatorial] primary has been fought -- and from her own previous ad, staking out a hard line on immigration," Politico's Ben Smith observes.

COLORADO: "Colorado Senate candidate Andrew Romanoff is casting his victory at the state party convention as a reflection of the anti-incumbent mood that is sweeping the nation," The Hill writes. The former Colorado House Speaker told the paper: "The message that Joe Sestak and Bill Halter delivered last week appeals to a lot of Coloradoans, too. The willingness of a candidate to buck his or her own party is something Coloradoans reward."

CONNECTICUT: "Former U.S. Rep. Rob Simmons is expected to withdraw from Connecticut's U.S. Senate race, days after pledging to challenge wrestling executive Linda McMahon in a Republican primary," the AP says.

OHIO: "Building a Stronger Ohio, an outside Democratic group led by the Democratic Governors Association, is set to air a television ad this week attacking former Cong. John Kasich, the Republican challenging incumbent Gov. Ted Strickland (D)," the Rothenberg Political Report writes, predicting it will mimick Gov. Strickland's last ad attacking Kasich for working for Lehman Brothers after leaving Congress. 

SOUTH CAROLINA: "Sex and scandal are again in South Carolina's political air," the AP reports. "A year ago, it was Gov. Mark Sanford's tearful confession of secretly skipping out of the country to rendezvous with an Argentine woman he called his soul mate. On Monday, it was a political blogger's claim of an affair with a rising star in the governor's race: state Rep. Nikki Haley. Three years ago, it was the state treasurer whose affinity for cocaine had him facing federal charges and prison time. It's not the Grand Old Party conservatives had in mind when they built their party on the bulwarks of the Christian Coalition of America." 

WASHINGTON: "Republican Dino Rossi is hiring key campaign staffers and is expected to officially enter the U.S. Senate race against incumbent Patty Murray as early as Wednesday," the Seattle Times writes.

WISCONSIN: Stu Rothenberg goes pop culture in his Roll Call column with this: "Scott Duffy welcome to your New Real World." Rothenberg writes that Duffy in some ways may have a tougher time against the new candidate in WI-7 than against David Obey.

From NBC's Athena Jones
WASHINGTON -- As part of what the administration sees as its efforts to reduce unnecessary spending and demonstrate President Obama's commitment to getting the country's fiscal house in order, the president is proposing legislation that would force Congress to vote on a package of White House-proposed cuts to spending bills.

The legislation is the Obama administration's answer to the line-item veto, which the Supreme Court struck down in 1998. Under the bill, which Congress must approve, the president would submit a package of rescissions to Congress within 45 days after passage of a spending bill. The package of cuts would cover discretionary spending and non-entitlement mandatory spending and it would be taken up first by the House. Once passed there, the Senate would have 25 days to vote on it.

"The line-item veto gave the knife to the president," Peter Orszag, director of the White House Office of Management and Budget, said in a conference call with reporters. "That was unconstitutional. Here, we are providing a way for the president to give the knife back to Congress to help it cut out unnecessary fat."

Even though data show the economy is pulling out of its worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, Americans remain concerned about the ballooning budget deficit, a fact Republicans have sought to use to their advantage.

Obama has repeatedly tried to show he is concerned with fiscal restraint, for instance by setting up a bipartisan debt commission to look at ways to reduce the deficit; signing new PAYGO legislation, which requires new spending or tax cuts be offset by reductions elsewhere and by proposing a three-year freeze on non-security discretionary funding -- a move the White House says will save $250 billion over the next 10 years relative to continuing the 2010 funding levels.

In a speech today at Johns Hopkins University, Larry Summers, an economic adviser to the president, said steps to reduce the deficit -- projected to be $1.5 trillion or more than 10 percent of GDP this year -- would cut it in half as a share of the economy over the next two to three years, marking the fastest rate of deficit reduction since World War II.

Similar proposals to provide the president with the power to make cuts to spending bills went down to defeat in Congress and prospects for this legislation are unclear. Orszag said several members of the budget team had participated in briefings with members of Congress on the proposal and said he was "hopeful" about passage.

"I think you're going to see an embrace from those who are most concerned about eliminating unnecessary spending," Orszag said. "I think the fiscal context has changed as it became necessary to combat a severe economic downturn and ongoing deficits have become a growing concern."

From msnbc.com's Carrie Dann
Rep. Joe Sestak's victory in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary over incumbent Sen. Arlen Specter may have won him the "giant killer" moniker, but it also pulled a bubbling controversy onto the national stage.

As First Read wrote on Friday, national Republicans have used his come-from-behind victory to intensify the spotlight on Sestak's claim -- first made in February -- that he was offered a job by a White House official in exchange for dropping his challenge to Specter, the administration's favored candidate in the race.

On Sunday's "Meet the Press," Sestak confirmed that such a conversation took place but refused to say who made the offer and what kind of job was discussed.

Here's the key exchange between Sestak and NBC's David Gregory:
MR. GREGORY: Yes or no, straightforward question. Were you, were you offered a job, and what was the job?
REP. SESTAK: I was offered a job, and I answered that.
MR. GREGORY: You said no, you wouldn't take the job. Was it the secretary of the Navy?
REP. SESTAK: Right. And I also said, "Look, I'm getting into this...
MR. GREGORY: Was it the secretary of the Navy job?
REP. SESTAK: Anything that go  -- goes beyond that is others -- for others to talk about.

A direct offer of employment could be illegal under U.S. Code. Republicans point to three statutes that make it a misdemeanor to solicit or receive employment in exchange for political activity or to use one's official government authority to interfere in an election.

White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said Sunday that there was "nothing inappropriate" about any conversations the Pennsylvania lawmaker had with any administration staffers.

"I'm not a lawyer," he said on CBS' "Face the Nation." "But lawyers in the White House and others have looked into conversations that were had with Congressman Sestak. And nothing inappropriate happened."

The issue has been brewing since early March, when House Oversight and Government Reform ranking member Darrell Issa (R) first sent a letter to the White House counsel asking for additional information about Sestak's claim.

"While the White House may think this is politics as usual, what is spectacularly unusual is when a candidate – a U.S. Congressman no less – freely acknowledges such a proposal," Issa wrote. "Almost always candidates keep quiet about such deals, and for good reason – they are against the law."

From NBC's Andrea Mitchell
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in Beijing today spoke on camera about North Korea's torpedoing of a South Korean ship -- now that South Korea, the U.S. and the UN have in recent days declared they have forensic proof North Korea was behind the incident. She is in intensive talks, she said, with the Chinese on this -- and will be heading next to South Korea for further talks -- with the Chinese joining. The U.S. is also seeking action against North Korea at the Security Council.

Experts in and outside the administration think the North Korea action may have something to do with succession in North Korea -- but in fact they dont really know what is going on. But they think this has the potential to become a real crisis between North and South -- which would draw the U.S. in. It is a big setback for delicate talks to move toward diplomatic relations.

At Clinton's news conference she said:

"First, we endorse President Lee's call on North Korea to come forward with the facts regarding this act of aggression and, above all, stop its belligerence and threatening behavior.

"Second, our support for South Korea's defense is unequivocal, and President Obama has directed his military commanders to coordinate closely with their Korean counterparts to ensure readiness and to deter future aggression. As part of our ongoing dialogue, we will explore further enhancements to our joint posture on the Peninsula.

"Third, we support President Lee's call to bring this issue to the United Nations Security Council. I will be working with Ambassador Rice and our Korean counterparts, as well as Japan, China, and other UN Security Council member states to reach agreement on a way forward in the Council.

"Fourth, President Obama has directed U.S. Government agencies to review their existing authorities and policies related to North Korea, to ensure that we have adequate measures in place, and to identify areas where adjustments would be appropriate."

She also said:

"We are working hard to avoid an escalation, belligerence and provocation. This is a highly precarious situation that the North Koreans have caused in the region and it is one that every country that neighbors or is in proximity to North Korea understands must be contained, so that is what we are working to achieve and at the same time to send a message to North Korea that we are not simply resuming business as usual, that we intend to work with the international community to create a climate in which both consequences are felt by North Korea and working to change their behavior going forward to avoid the kind of escalation that would be very regrettable."

From NBC's Mark Murray
Just as state Rep. Nikki Haley (R) was beginning to gain momentum in South Carolina's competitive four-way June 8 gubernatorial primary -- especially after winning Sarah Palin's endorsement -- this story has the potential to dramatically alter the race to succeed Gov. Mark Sanford (R).

Will Folks, a prominent South Carolina Republican blogger who was Sanford's former press secretary, admits to having an "inappropriate physical relationship" with Haley "several years ago." Haley has been married to her husband, Michael, for 13 years, and they have two children.

Folks suggests that he's revealing his past relationship with Haley because it's being leaked to news organizations. "It is what it is, and aside from the Haley family – Michael, Nikki, Rena and Nalin – I feel no need to apologize or explain myself to anyone. People are human. We make mistakes. And as I have learned from experience, the key to life isn't the mistakes we make, it's how we choose to handle them."

Haley denies any infidelity. "I have been 100% faithful to my husband throughout our 13 years of marriage," she said in a statement, per NBC affiliate WIS-TV. "This claim against me is categorically and totally false." Haley added that Folks' allegations was "South Carolina politics at its worst" -- although Folks' blog reportedly has been very favorable toward Haley's candidacy.

In the June 8 GOP primary, Haley is taking on state Attorney General Henry McMaster, Rep. Gresham Barrett, and Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer.

Of course, it was the term-limited Sanford's affair with an Argentina woman that essentially rendered him a lame-duck governor.

*** UPDATE *** Palin defends Haley in a Facebook post. "South Carolina: don't let some blogger make any accusation against your Nikki if the guy doesn't even have the guts or the integrity to speak further on such a significant claim. And don't believe anything a liberal rag claims or suggests unless the reporter involved has the integrity and the facts to report to you so you can make up your own mind."

But Folks is more than a blogger; he's a Republican Haley supporter, who served as Gov. Sanford's spokesman.

Obama administration under growing pressure to do more in the Gulf… The GOP's financial and organizational disadvantage, and how it might cost the party House seats in November… Republicans win in Hawaii… Blumenthal says he's sorry (but in a statement and nearly a week after his press conference)… The anti-establishment folks performed well in Colorado's conventions… Cuomo officially enters New York's gubernatorial contest (and portrays himself as an outsider)… And McCain -- again -- criticizes the administration on immigration.

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** Under pressure: As everyone can attest, receiving blame for something that's not your fault -- or that you can't fix -- isn't fair. But life, being president, and the state of American politics aren't fair. And the Obama administration is now coming under increased criticism for the oil spill in the Gulf and its response to the crisis. One of President Obama's more underappreciated talents is his public demeanor; he's never too hot or too cold, too high or too low. But as the underwater spill continues and as the oil has reached the shore, there's growing pressure for Obama to do something more -- even if it's just on the P.R. front. That's why we wouldn't be surprised if the president once again visits the Gulf region. He's got to demonstrate that he's doing something or that he's as publicly frustrated as everyone else is. The real issue many seem to have with the administration is their reliance on BP, which in many ways is unavoidable. But what's been hard to stomach is the fact that BP has either intentionally misled the public on the scope of the disaster or, just as bad, can't get its arms around it and is overwhelmed. At noon ET, Obama participates in a conference call with Gulf Coast governors on the BP spill.

*** Money and organization matter: As we mentioned last week -- as well as in the New York Times op-ed we wrote on Sunday -- the Democrats' PA-12 win proved that good candidates and good campaigns can win even in the worst of political environments. The victory also cast doubt on the GOP's ability to gain the net 40 or so seats it needs to win control of the House in November. One thing to keep in mind is that in the best possible political environment for the Democrats in 2006 (after Hurricane Katrina, after casualties had increased in Iraq, after numerous GOP ethics and corruption scandals, and with Bush's approval below 40%), Democrats gained 30 seats. And two reasons why it wasn't more than that were the NRCC's money and organization. Indeed, a GOP source who helped oversee the 2006 House races tells First Read that the GOP committee helped save at least 15 House Republican incumbents, including Marilyn Musgrave, Chris Shays, Jim Gerlach, Thelma Drake, Jon Porter, and Dave Reichert. (Some of those members, of course, didn't survive in '08.)

*** 2006 vs. now: Indeed, when you think about it, Democrats could very well have won 40-45 seats in 2006. And now the situation has reversed itself: Republicans are the ones who have the advantage with the political environment, but Democrats have the edge in money (the DCCC has $27 million in the bank, versus the NRCC's $11 million) and organization (evidenced by the DCCC's streak until Saturday in winning special elections). The Republicans' money disadvantage, in particular, will force the GOP to make some tough decisions in the fall. "Do they spend what it takes to win -- so 20 seats or so? Or spread the money thin in 40-50 [seats] and hope for the best?" that GOP source emails asks.

*** The demoralization factor: One other point not to be missed about 2006 and now (as well as 1994 and now) is the demoralization factor, and it's not there for Democrats. Sure, the enthusiasm gap is there, but there isn't a doom-and-gloom in the base that was there with Democrats in '94 and Republicans in '06.

*** GOP wins in Hawaii: On Saturday, however, the GOP finally ended its losing streak in highly competitive House special elections when Charles Djou (R) won the contest to fill the seat vacated by Neil Abercrombie, who is running for governor. But the 39% Djou won -- compared with Colleen Hanabusa's (D) 31% and Ed Case's 28% (D) -- isn't reason to believe that Republicans will keep the seat in November. Why? Because the combined Dem percentage was nearly 59% to Djou's nearly 40%. The bitter feud that divided the Democratic vote in this district that Obama won with 70% in 2008 is embarrassing for the Democratic Party, but it should be able to easily win back the seat in November, when it will have just one candidate after the party's Sept. 18 primary. For bragging rights about winning in Obama's birthplace, the GOP needed Djou to be in the mid 40s. Hanabusa, who was in third in the polls, appears to be in a stronger position for that primary after her surprising second-place finish.

*** Blumenthal says he's sorry: In Connecticut, embattled Senate candidate Richard Blumenthal (D) has now apologized for exaggerating his military service. The apology comes via a written statement, and it comes days after his press conference where he expressed regret but not apology. "At times when I have sought to honor veterans, I have not been as clear or precise as I should have been about my service in the Marine Corps Reserves. I have firmly and clearly expressed regret and taken responsibility for my words. I have made mistakes and I am sorry. I truly regret offending anyone. I will always champion the cause of Connecticut's and our nation's veterans." It wasn't nearly as defiant of a tone as his press conference was last Tuesday. It turns out to have been mixed weekend for Blumenthal. DNC Chairman Tim Kaine said he was "wrong" to misstate his past military service; a new Democratic poll (conducted May 19-20) shows Blumenthal leading Linda McMahon, 55%-40%; and Blumenthal ended up winning Connecticut's Dem convention on Friday.

*** More anti-establishment wins: In the other conventions over the weekend, in Colorado, the anti-establishment beat the establishment -- businessman Dan Maes topped front-runner Scott McInnis for the top billing in August's GOP gubernatorial primary; Ken Buck beat Jane Norton in the GOP Senate race; and Andrew Romanoff got 60% to Sen. Michael Bennet's 40% in the Democratic Senate race. These convention contests determine the placement on the Aug. 10 primary ballot, and victory at the convention doesn't predict eventual primary success. As the AP writes, "In 2004, Colorado Springs Schools Superintendent Mike Miles got top billing over Salazar in the Senate Democratic primary. But Salazar went on to win the primary and the general election." 

*** Cuomo makes it official: And now even the establishment types are trying to portray themselves as the outsiders. Officially announcing his bid for New York governor on Saturday, Andrew Cuomo aimed directly at Albany. "Appearing in front of the former Manhattan courthouse named for Boss Tweed, the corrupt political boss of Tammany Hall, Mr. Cuomo told a crowd of supporters: 'Unfortunately, Albany's antics today could make Boss Tweed blush. Our message today is simple. Enough is enough,'" the New York Times wrote on Sunday. "In a year in which incumbents everywhere are under attack, Mr. Cuomo is trying to run against Albany, which could be difficult to sell, given his history. He is the son of former Gov. Mario M. Cuomo, for whom he served as political director, and he has deep connections in state and national politics."

*** More Midterm News: In Arizona, while delivering petition signatures for a position on the August ballot, Sen. John McCain "defended Arizona's tough crackdown on illegal immigration and lashed out at President Barack Obama for criticizing it," the AP writes… In California, Steve Poizner hits Meg Whitman on immigration (and even compares her to Mexico's president)… And in Florida, a new St. Pete Times/Miami Herald/Bay News 9 poll has Charlie Crist at 30% among registered voters, Marco Rubio at 27%, and Kendrick Meek at 15%.
   
Countdown to ID primary: 1 day
Countdown to CA, IA, ME, NJ, ND, SC, SD, and VA primaries, and AR run-off: 15 days:
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 162 days

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