President Obama is in Buffalo, NY, and New York City for a DCCC fundraiser tonight, but here's a welcome-to-New York column: "Well, Mr. President, maybe when you come to the city for a political fund-raiser today you can explain how you can allow cuts in funding to protect those of us who live, work and raise our kids in the terrorists' bull's-eye," the New York Daily News' Daly writes. "Cuts that come in the immediate aftermath of the attempted car bombing in Times Square. Which came in the aftermath of the attempted bombings in the subway. Which came in the aftermath of a dozen other attempted attacks. Which came in the aftermath of the mass murder of thousands on 9/11. All of which came before the next attempt, which is sure to come. Most experts think the chances are better than ever it will be in the subways. Yet the Department of Homeland Security is cutting our transit funding from $153 million to $111 million. Money to protect the port is being cut from $45 million to $33.8 million." 

*** UPDATE *** The Obama White House is firing back at the criticism that it has cut funding for New York City transit and port security.

Emails White House spokesman Nick Shapiro:
"The reports are wrong. When all federal funding is totaled, NYC has received a net increase of $47 million for port and transit security over the previous year's budget, the last signed into law by the Bush Administration. Those who suggest otherwise are not counting the more than $100 million in port and transit security grants for NYC from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. With that money, the total for NYC will be $245 million, more than $47million than what was allotted by the Bush Administration in the previous year. In fact, one out of every three recovery dollars for transit and port security went to NYC, making them the largest recipient in the country."

Here's the lead from our new NBC/WSJ poll: "Even after the recent -- and highly publicized -- oil spill in the Gulf Coast, that's the overwhelming sentiment from the public, with six in 10 Americans supporting more offshore drilling… In addition, a majority believes that the potential economic benefits of offshore drilling outweigh its potential harm to the environment." 

"The Obama administration has done its best to repair strained relations with the Afghan leader, its partner in the war against militants in Afghanistan," the AP says. "For his part, Karzai is trying to convince Americans that his regime is worth fighting and dying for, with a visit to Arlington National Cemetery and private talks with top lawmakers."

"Economist Mark Zandi expects the unemployment rate to float above 10 percent during the next few months as workers look to take advantage of improving opportunities. 'The increase in unemployment is a sign of a stronger job market, but it is also a sign of how weak the job market still is and vulnerable the recovery is to anything that might go wrong,' Zandi wrote in an e-mail to The Hill."

Per NBC's Kelly O'Donnell, Elena Kagan is scheduled to meet with five Democrats and two Republicans today: John Kerry (9:00 am ET), Arlen Specter (9:45 am), Chuck Schumer (10:30 am), Susan Collins (11:30 am), Ben Cardin (1:30 pm), Scott Brown (2:15 pm), and Amy Klobuchar (3:15 pm).

The Washington Post looks at Kagan's record as solicitor general. "Since President Obama nominated Kagan to join her inquisitors on the Supreme Court, members of Congress, the public and legal experts have been sifting through her background in search of her stances on important issues and the law. She has not been a judge, so there are no legal opinions to peruse; she made few bold declarations in her writings as a professor and dean of Harvard Law School; and she has been circumspect in speeches. She spent several hours on Capitol Hill meeting with key senators Wednesday but said little about her personal views."

More: "So her 15-month tenure as solicitor general will be scrutinized. But those trying to forecast her potential Supreme Court opinions face a difficult task. The job of solicitor general is to be not a legal philosopher but a lawyer with a client to defend: the United States government." 

The Boston Globe: "Kagan has won many admirers -- because, in large part, of her former position at Harvard, her current post as US solicitor general, and her handful of legal articles. Her intellect and grasp of the law have not been widely challenged. But Kagan's Republican critics, having initially targeted her lack of judicial experience, now are focusing on how her slim volume of legal writings provides little material to judge her fitness for the court."

Republicans have opened an assault on the nomination of Harvard professor Donald Berwick to lead the huge agency that runs Medicare and Medicaid, calling Berwick an advocate for 'rationing' health care," the Boston Globe writes. "Berwick, a pediatrician and president of the Institute for Healthcare Improvement, a not-for-profit organization in Cambridge, is widely respected by many veteran policy officials across the political spectrum, who say he has a firm understanding of how to overhaul parts of the healthcare system that lead to excessive costs, waste, and poor health outcomes. But GOP lawmakers are becoming increasingly vocal in their attacks on Berwick, citing his support of controlling costs and his statements praising aspects of the United Kingdom's national health system. They contend his positions show that he would seek to transform US health care into a tightly controlled system, reducing patient choices and delaying treatments."

The New York Times writes up the introduction of the Kerry-Lieberman energy/climate change bill. "One of the central elements of the Senate bill -- incentives to increase domestic offshore oil production -- was changed in the aftermath of the explosion and fire on the Deepwater Horizon drilling rig in the gulf on April 20, which left an undersea well leaking oil. Instead of providing for a broad expansion of offshore drilling, the measure would have the effect of sharply limiting oil operations off the Atlantic and Pacific coasts by giving states the right to veto any drilling plan that could cause environmental or economic harm."

More: "The Kerry-Lieberman proposal would treat each major sector of the economy differently, while providing something for every major energy interest: loan guarantees for nuclear plant operators, incentives for use of natural gas in transportation, exemptions from emissions caps for heavy industry, generous pollution permits for utilities for years, modest carbon dioxide limits for oil refiners and substantial refunds for consumers. The bill's overall goal is to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions by 17 percent (compared with 2005 levels) by 2020, and by 83 percent by 2050. The targets match those in a House bill passed last year and in the Obama administration's announced policy goal." 

"Kerry and Lieberman are taking a political gamble in releasing the bill without the Republican support that Kerry once called crucial," the Boston Globe adds. "Senator Lindsey Graham, a South Carolina Republican, had spent months helping to craft the proposal, only to back away several weeks ago over opposition to an unrelated immigration overhaul. Graham released a statement this afternoon that, while generally supportive, suggested he thought the chances of passage this year were thin."

"House Minority Whip Eric Cantor has attempted this week to push the Republican Party a little further into the digital era, handing out new gadgets to his colleagues and announcing a new social networking website to get citizen input on spending cuts," Roll Call writes. http://bit.ly/dDeXeV

Per Cantor's office, 43,000 Americans have voted on the Web site, YouCut, and that number is still climbing.

Tampa, here we come: "The Republican Party selected Tampa, Fla., on Wednesday as the site of its 2012 presidential nominating convention, with the city winning out over Phoenix and Salt Lake City as the place to kick off the party's quest to defeat President Obama." http://nyti.ms/ahIrdJ

Here's the Wall Street Journal's lead of the new NBC/WSJ poll: "Republicans have solidified support among voters who had drifted from the party in recent elections, putting the GOP in position for a strong comeback in November's mid-term campaign… Republicans have reassembled their coalition by reconnecting with independents, seniors, blue-collar voters, suburban women and small town and rural voters—all of whom had moved away from the party in the 2006 elections, in which Republicans lost control of the House. Those voter groups now favor GOP control of Congress." 

IOWA: "Iowa's Democratic Gov. Chet Culver is getting some front-line help in his tough re-election race from Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr," CQ reports. The Vice President will appear with Culver at a May 18th rally in Cedar Rapids. 

MASSACHUSETTS: The Boston Globe looks at how Martha Coakley, running unopposed for Attorney General, is campaigning hard and doing lots of retail politics. "The one thing that I'm going to make sure is that I dispel any misperception that I don't care about voters or I don't care about meeting ordinary people," Coakley said. "If the message is you need to be out with people, that's a good message and I'm happy to hear it. And I'm going to continue to be out there."

MICHIGAN: A man featured in Attorney General Mike Cox's latest campaign ad demanded that he be removed from the ad, as he supports Cox's primary opponent Rick Snyder. "I find it appalling he is using my image in a shameful attack ad on another opponent," the unwilling extra, Derek Moss, told the Detroit News. 

PENNSYLVANIA: "Pennsylvania congressional candidate Tim Burns (R) is caught in the middle of a debate over the so-called FairTax," The Hill notes. 

SOUTH CAROLINA: Gov. Mark Sanford's ex-wife Jenny is campaigning tomorrow for gubernatorial candidate Nikki Haley, the AP reports. 

UTAH: Speaking to several news outlets yesterday, Rep. Jason Chaffetz floated the idea of a Senate bid to unseat Orrin Hatch in the 2012 primary. "I'm not willing to shut the door on a potential Senate run," Chaffetz told National Review Online. "I serve at the will of the delegates. If that's what they want, then maybe I will."

And former Sen. Rick Santorum endorses Mike Lee for Senate.

From NBC's Mark Murray
Here's our write-up of the new NBC/WSJ poll:

WASHINGTON - Drill, baby, drill.

Even after the recent — and highly publicized — oil spill in the Gulf Coast, that's the overwhelming sentiment from the public, with six in 10 Americans supporting more offshore drilling, according to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

In addition, a majority believes that the potential economic benefits of offshore drilling outweigh its potential harm to the environment.

Those aren't the only striking results from this survey, which was conducted after several significant and newsworthy events:

-- Nearly two-thirds of Americans back Arizona's new controversial immigration law;
-- After the failed car bomb in Times Square, 58 percent of respondents say they're worried this country will experience another terrorist attack, the highest percentage on this question in almost five years;
-- And in the wake of the federal government's fraud charges against Wall Street giant Goldman Sachs, a clear majority thinks that the biggest concern about the financial reform legislation moving through Congress is that it won't go far enough to rein in Wall Street's perceived excesses.

The more things change ...
Yet given these events and findings, perhaps the biggest takeaway from the poll is that the overall political environment remains virtually unchanged.

Half of the nation still approves of President Barack Obama's job performance; Republicans continue to enjoy an enthusiasm advantage heading into the upcoming midterm elections; and more than eight in 10 remain dissatisfied about the economy.

"The more things change, the more they stay the same," says Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart, who conducted this survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff. "The dynamics of 2010 are overriding any of these huge events that are happening."

Adds McInturff, "We have a corrosive economy, and that economy is continuing to be a weight on the political system."

Click here for the rest of the story.

From NBC's Ali Weinberg
A collection of the day's TV and radio campaign ads.

PA-12, National Republican Trust PA, "Mark Critz, Washington Insider: We DO Know Who You Are!"
5/11
ANNCR: "Your name is Mark. You want to represent Pennsylvania 12. Nice try Mark, but where have you been? Not here in Pennsylvania creating jobs. No, you've been sucking up to the Washington crowd who's bankrupting the country. Listen Mark, we can make this easy. Just admit you're a Washington insider, a hand-picked pawn of Obama and Pelosi. And Mark, we do know who you are." ANNCR: "Paid for by the National Republican Trust PAC which is responsible for the content of this message."

HI-1, Djou, "Families First"
5/12
DJOU 'S WIFE: "These are the faces of Hawaii. They work hard, pay their taxes, play by the rules. And my husband Charles Djou has always stood up for them. Whether it's fighting corruption, wasteful government spending or tax increases, Charles always puts Hawaii's families first. In Congress Charles will free small businesses from crippling taxes and create new jobs. He's thoughtful, and hardworking, and represents the future. Charles Djou for Congress." DJOU: "I'm Charles Djou and I approve this message."

MA GOV, Republican Governors Association, "9/11"
5/10
OPERATOR: 9-1-1, What's your emergency? WOMAN: Politics as usual. Up at the statehouse. OPERATOR: Tim Cahill. He's the state treasurer! OPERATOR: Okay Ma'am, I can't help you unless you calm down and tell me what happened. WOMAN: Tim Cahill turned out to be just another Beacon Hill politician. OPERATOR: Do you mean like Deval Patrick and Sal DiMasi? What can you tell me about them? WOMAN: Well, for starters, Tim Cahill hands out state contracts to his campaign fundraisers! OPERATOR: Tim Cahill's reckless with our money! He bought a whole new fleet of cars down at the lottery. OPERATOR: Ugh, guys like him make my blood boil. Anything else? WOMAN: Yeah. Tim Cahill spent over a million dollars redecorating one of his offices. Fancy TVs, blue lighting, art deco! OPERATOR: Are you sure you're not confusing him with Governor Deval Patrick? WOMAN: They're pratcially the same. OPERATOR: All units, we have an emergency at the state house. Be on the lookout for Tim Cahill. Turns out he's just another Beacon Hill politician. ANNCR: Visit TheCahillReport.com to learn more. Paid for by the Republican Governors Association.

AL GOV, James, "Dropping"
5/10
ANNCR: "He's dropping like a rock. He went from first to near-last. Bradley Byrne. Alabama saw the truth. Byrne's no conservative. So what's a typical politician to do? Desperate, outright lies about Tim James, the true conservative. Who knows what Byrne will throw in next? The kitchen sink? Beware of slick trial lawyers dropping in the polls. They'll say anything."

MI GOV, Americans for Job Security, "Disappointed"
5/11
Good people can get sucked into the Washington, D.C. tax and spend culture. My biggest disappointment? West Michigan congressman Pete Hoekstra. Hoekstra voted for the Wall Street bailout and the Bridge to Nowhere in Alaska. And Hoekstra supports a new tax on services like auto repair and day care. And Hoekstra won't sign a pledge not to raise our taxes even more. I expected better from Pete. Call him and tell him taxes and bailouts hurt Michigan families.

PA-12, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, "He's Really Not For You"
5/11
"Tim Burns supports a 23 percent national sales tax. What will it cost you? A bag of groceries, $8 more. A tank of gas, $13 more. Medicine for your family, $147 more. And Tim Burns won't protect our jobs. He's even pledged to support corporate tax loopholes for companies that ship jobs overseas. Tim Burns, he's really not for you. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is responsible for the content of this advertising."

PA-12, Alliance for Retired Americans PAC, "Critz on Side of PA Seniors"
5/12
"Why are seniors across Western Pennsylvania voting Mark Critz for Congress? Because Mark Critz alone signed the pledge not to privatize Social Security, so your retirement won't be gambled away by Wall Street. Critz will make sure Medicare is sound and always there. And Mark Critzwill fight for real relief for seniors through lower prescription drug costs. On May 18th, stand with the Alliance for Retired Americans and Western Pennsylvania seniors. Vote Mark Critz for Congress. The Alliance for Retired Americans Political Action Fund is responsible for the content of this advertisement."

AL GOV, Byrne, "Follow the Money"
5/6
"Montgomery corruption. Just follow the money. As two-year college chancellor, Bradley Byrne stopped double dipping and AEA corruption. Now union bosses Paul Hubbert and Joe Reed, both Democrat Party chairs, are working with Tim James' campaign, funneling money to a phony PAC attacking Byrne. The Alabama Republican Party condemns the phony PAC as a 'deception to mislead voters.' Montgomery corruption. Just follow the money. AEA union bosses and Tim James: caught deceiving Republicans"

FL GOV, Scott, "Immigration" (radio) 
5/11
"If we have laws in this country, shouldn't police officers be allowed to enforce them? For ye    ars Washington has limited local police ability to enforce immigration laws. Now Arizona is changing that....and Florida should too. If someone gets stopped for speeding or arrested for robbery, the police should be allowed determine if they are here legally. It's just common sense. President Obama and other liberals call it discrimination. Nonsense. As Republicans, we reject any discrimination of any kind. This is simply a common sense effort to enforce the law. America is a nation of immigrants, and that makes us strong. We are also a nation of laws and these are dangerous times. It's time we start enforcing those laws, and that's what I'll do as Governor."

ME GOV, Rosa Scarcelli, "Signs"
5/12
SCARCELLI: "Sometimes, the signs are just there. The career politicians that got us here won't change things. But I will. I'm Rosa Scarcelli. I've spent my whole life here in Maine creating good jobs and opportunity. I'll put Augusta back on the side of working families instead of special interests. And I'll put the best ideas to work, no matter what party they come from. Together, we'll move Maine forward."

NM GOV, Denish, "First TV Ad"
5/11
DENISH: "Being from Hobbs is a good way to learn every community matters. As Lt. Governor, I've made it a priority to get out of Santa Fe and focus on what happens in all of our communities." MAN: "She is committed to honest, ethical, open government." WOMAN: "It's not about her, it's about us; and I think she gets that." WOMAN 2: "She'll do the right thing. No matter what." DENISH: "I've never been one of those 'good ol' boys' and never wanted to be one of those 'good ol' boys.' As a small business owner I balanced a budget and I made a payroll. And I didn't spend money that I didn't have. Government needs to do the same thing. As Governor, one of the first things I'll do is cut waste out of government. Let's get rid of the bloated bureaucracy. Slash the state car fleet. And get rid of unnecessary political appointees. And focus on what really matters in New Mexico: Job creation, improving education, and turning New Mexico's economy around."

NM GOV, Martinez, "Carly"
5/12
MOTHER: Our little girl was named Carly. Our little girl, she was a sweetheart. We knew there was something awful wrong. DAUGHTER: My dad had to tell me and he was broken. SON: We're not going to get to see Carly again. DAUGHTER: Susana defended Carly heroically. FATHER: Susana has that courage to go out and fight. SON: She really took the time to love us and help us get put back together again in a lot of ways. MOTHER: Grateful to Susana. Grateful to her forever.

OR GOV, Bradbury, "Gov. Barbara Roberts endorses Bill Bradbury for Governor" 5/10
ROBERTS: "Bill Bradbury is my strong choice for governor of Oregon. I hope you'll join me in this crucial campaign. Let's make Bill Bradbury the next governor of the state of Oregon."

From NBC's Mark Murray
Here's another set of numbers from the new NBC/WSJ poll we're teasing:

Nearly two-thirds of Americans back Arizona's new anti-illegal immigration law, which makes it a state crime for a person to be in the country illegally. The law also requires local and state law enforcement officials to question people about their immigration status if they suspect they're in the country illegally.

Sixty-four percent favor this law, while 34 percent oppose it. But those numbers are essentially reversed among Latinos -- with 70 percent of them opposing the law, and only 27 percent supporting it.

Even though almost two-thirds of the public supports Arizona's law, nearly an identical number (66 percent) believe it will lead to the discrimination of Latino immigrants who reside in the U.S. legally.

The full NBC/WSJ poll is released at 6:30 pm ET.

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Florida Gov. Charlie Crist made it official and changed his voter registration today from Republican to Independent.
 
"I'm independent, I'm free," Crist said, per the Jacksonville Observer. "And I think people want somebody who's independent to represent them in the U.S. Senate. And I'm going to make my registration reflect that, too."

The Tampa Tribune: "Asked this morning about his party switch coming the same day as Tampa was named the site of the 2012 Republican convention, Crist said, 'It is ironic, isn't it?'"

From NBC's Mark Murray
It's official -- the Republican National Committee's convention-site selection committee has recommended Tampa, Fla., for its 2012 political convention, which will take place the week of Aug. 27, 2012.

The full RNC will vote on this recommendation this August.

The other finalist cities were Phoenix, AZ, and Salt Lake City, UT.

Here's the RNC's release:

RNC SITE SELECTION COMMITTEE TO RECOMMEND TAMPA-ST. PETERSBURG FOR 2012 REPUBLICAN NATIONAL CONVENTION

WASHINGTON, D.C. - The Republican National Committee today announced that its Site Selection Committee has voted to recommend Tampa-St. Petersburg to host the 2012 Republican National Convention, pending the successful negotiation of the site city agreement. The full RNC will vote on the recommendation at its Summer Meeting in August, 2010. The convention will be held the week of August 27, 2012.

"We are honored and privileged to accept the bid from Tampa, Florida to host the Republican National Convention in 2012. The host committee's hard work and dedication resulted in a tremendous bid that we are confident will produce a successful event. The Tampa area boasts state-of-the-art facilities, exciting and vibrant downtowns, and a clear enthusiasm from the community to host our convention. We look forward to joining our compatriots in the Sunshine State for our convention in 2012," said RNC Chairman Michael Steele.

"We are very excited to accept Tampa's bid for the 2012 Republican National Convention. Tampa has put a great deal of effort into showcasing their city and what they have to offer. We are looking forward to a successful convention in Florida," said Site Selection Committee Chair Holly Hughes.
The Site Selection Committee reviewed bids from three cities: Phoenix, Salt Lake City, and Tampa-St. Petersburg and visited each city in March and April.

The committee's decision was based on an independent and objective scorecard that was reviewed thoroughly by committee members. The committee looked at a several factors including the number and proximity of hotels, capacity of the arena to hold the convention, transportation, security, media work space, convention office space, and the ability to finance the operation.
The Site Selection Committee is made up of thirteen RNC members. Two voting members and one alternate member are elected from each of the four regions and Michigan Committeewoman Holly Hughes chairs the committee.

From NBC's Athena Jones
WASHINGTON -- President Obama and his Afghan counterpart downplayed past disagreements on Wednesday as they reaffirmed a long-term commitment to working together to defeat extremists and improve security and governance in the region.

The fence-mending visit comes several weeks after an intense exchange between the two countries. Soon after Obama delivered a tough message to the Afghan leader to crack down on corruption and improve governance during a surprise visit to Kabul in March, President Hamid Karzai accused the US government of interfering with elections in the country and even threatened to join the Taliban, remarks that drew sharp rebukes from American officials.

During an East Room press conference after their private Oval Office meeting, Obama said any relationship in a "complicated, difficult environment" was going to have moments of tension and disagreement and he reiterated the US's commitment to a stable Afghanistan he sees as key to America and the world's security.

"Our job is to be a good friend and to be frank with President Karzai in saying 'Here's where we think we've got to put more effort," Obama said. "President Karzai's job is to represent his country and insist that its sovereignty is properly respected, even as he goes about the hard task of bringing about changes in his government and economy and so I am very comfortable with the strong efforts that President Karzai has made thus far and I think that we both agree that we're going to have to make more efforts in future."

The administration's goal in the region is to prevent Afghanistan and Pakistan from becoming safe havens for Al Qaeda and other extremists. Doing so requires not only clearing and holding areas previously controlled or dominated by militants, but instituting strong government and security structures once those areas are cleared.

Karzai's visit comes at about the halfway point between Obama's December decision to send an additional 30,000 troops to the country -- about half of whom have arrived, with the rest due by this summer -- and the next large-scale review of America's strategy there. American officials said they hoped the visit would help the partners take stock of the progress made and talk about areas where more was needed.

Much of the president's Afghan team was seated in the front row during the event, including Gen. Jim Jones, Amb. Karl Eikenberry, Gen. Stanley McChrystal, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Richard Holbrooke, the administration's special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan. As have other officials in recent days, the president sought to make clear that America's commitment to the country would not end once the U.S. troop presence begins to diminish in the region, starting in July of 2011.

"Part of what I've tried to emphasize to President Karzai and the Afghan people, but also to the American people, is that this is a long-term partnership that is not simply defined by our military presence," he said. "After July 2011, we are still going to have an interest in making sure that Afghanistan is secure, that economic development is taking place, that good governance is being is promoted and so we're going to still be putting in resources."

After an Afghan journalist addressed a question about civilian casualties to Karzai, Obama made a point of stating that the United States does not take civilian casualties lightly and does everything it can to prevent them.

"Let me be very clear about what I told President Karzai: when there's a civilian casualty, that is not just a political problem for me," Obama said. "I am ultimately accountable, just as Gen. McChrystal is accountable, for somebody who's not on the battlefield who got killed and that is something that I have to carry with me."

Karzai arrived in Washington on Monday and met with Clinton on Tuesday, at one point acknowledging that relations between the two countries had been "at times quarrelsome." Today he said the countries' decade-long relationship was "strong and well-rooted" and that the tensions of recent months reflected its strength and depth.

The Afghan president brought with him several members of his Cabinet who met with U.S. officials yesterday and discussed policy goals in areas ranging from agriculture and economic development to security, governance and education.

US officials have said plans to build up and train Afghan police and army forces are on track and say Karzai has made some positive changes in the area of governance by, for instance, giving more power to the High Office of Oversight, the special office responsible for anti-corruption measures inside the Kabul government and by mandating disclosure of financial assets by Afghan senior officials.

In the coming weeks, Karzai will host a Consultative Peace Jirga to consult with Afghans about efforts to bring about peace, including the potential for reconciling with elements of the Taliban and reintegrating them into Afghan society, provided they lay down their arms and accept the Afghan constitution. Karzai said his focus would be on the thousands of Taliban that were not ideologically driven and that were not linked with Al Qaeda or other terrorists networks or controlled by foreign elements.

"There are thousands of them who are country boys who've been driven by intimidation or fear," he said. "It is these thousands of Taliban who are not against Afghanistan or against the Afghan people or their country, who are not against America either, or the rest of the world and who want to come back to Afghanistan if given and opportunity and provided the political means. It's this group of the Taliban that we are addressing in the peace jirga."

In July, Karzai hosts an international conference in Kabul, which Clinton is set to attend, where he is expected to deliver action plans on a series of commitments he made to improve governance in his inaugural address and at a London conference. Parliamentary elections are expected to take place by September, followed by another round of the U.S.-Pakistani strategic dialogue, another important part of the process of stabilizing the region, and a December review of the president's Afghan strategy, Lt. Gen. Douglas Lute, special assistant to the president for Afghanistan and Pakistan, explained in a briefing to reporters.

The Afghan president, who visited wounded warriors at Walter Reed Army Medical Center in Washington yesterday, is scheduled to eat lunch in the Cabinet room, have a photo op with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on the hill this afternoon and attend a dinner at Vice President Biden's residence in the evening.

From NBC's Mark Murray
Here's the first set of numbers we're releasing from our new NBC/WSJ poll, which comes out in full beginning at 6:30 pm ET:

According to the poll, more than 80% see problems with America's two-party system -- with 31% believing it's seriously broken and that America needs a third party, and with another 52% saying that it has real problems but that it can still work with some improvements.

Only 15% of Americans believe the two-party system works fairly well.

The poll was taken May 6-10, and these numbers have a margin of error of plus-minus 3.1 percentage points.

From NBC's Athena Jones
WASHINGTON -- The White House plans to send a $118 million bill to Congress that would lift the cap on an energy company's liability in covering the costs of oil spills and strengthen recovery efforts in the Gulf of Mexico.

Oil continues to leak out of the ocean floor at the site of a rig owned by British Petroleum and fisheries in the region have been closed, putting at risk the livelihoods of local businesses along the Coast. The company continues to try to plug the breach, but it is already clear that the economic and environmental impact could be large. Administration officials reiterated today that BP will pay for the damages caused by the spill.

"The president is sending up to Congress a legislative package that will lift the cap on damage, increase the ceiling on the amount of money that can be expended on recovery per incident from the Oil Spill Liability Trust Fund and provide other authorities and funding to help the federal government respond quickly to this crisis," Carol Browner, Assistant to the President for Energy and Climate Change, said on a conference call to roll out the legislation."

The White House believes the current law, the Oil Pollution Act, needs updating, since it was passed two decades ago when offshore oil drilling represented a much smaller portion of the nation's energy supply. That law caps a company's liability at $75 million. Legislation has already been proposed that would raise that cap to $10 billion. Officials would not say how high the ceiling should be on damages and stressed that the White House would work with Congress on exact figures, but they did say that any lifting of the cap would apply retroactively.

The bill being introduced would provide unemployment assistance, food and nutrition assistance, help those affected by the spill find work, provide aid to fisheries and fishermen, provide funding to the Food and Drug Administration to increase inspection of fish and seafood, to the Dept. of Interior for additional inspections and enforcement of safety regulations on offshore platforms and more funding for the Environmental Protection Agency for environmental impact studies. The majority of the cost of this legislation would be charged to BP as the "responsible party," the officials said, without providing more specific estimates.

The legislation also calls for a 1-cent per barrel increase in taxes on the industry, raising the tax from 8 cents per barrel to 9 cents immediately and then to 10 cents in 2017. That money would go to the Oil Spill Liability Trust Fund, the government trust fund that helps cover damage claims from such spills. It would raise the cap on expenditures from that fund for any single incident to $1.5 billion, from $1 billion and the cap on natural resource damage assessments and claims to $750 million, from $500 million.

White House officials said they had alerted members of Congress that the bill was coming and said they were hopeful it could be passed in "the next few weeks", but they declined to talk about a specific legislative strategy or say whether any of the Democratic or Republican lawmakers they had spoken with had offered support for it.

The White House has not taken a position on whether to support a provision in the energy bill being put forward by Sens. John Kerry (D-MA) and Joe Lieberman (I-CT) that would allow states to ban oil drilling within 75 miles off their coast.

Is Arlen Specter the next longtime incumbent to go down?... 14-term Rep. Alan Mollohan last night became the first House incumbent to lose this cycle… Sen. Bob Bennett, who lost last weekend, hasn't ruled out a write-in candidacy… Karzai's in town, but that news is being overshadowed by other issues… Kagan starts her one-on-ones on Capitol Hill… Kerry and Lieberman unveil climate bill… New NBC/WSJ poll comes out at 6:30 pm ET… RNC to pick the host of its 2012 convention (and Tampa seems to be the smart bet)… Bill Halter to appear on "Daily Rundown"… And Charlie Crist officially changes his voter registration.

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** Is Specter next? Just like we saw last week in Utah before Sen. Bob Bennett's defeat, the political buzzards are once again circling over a longtime incumbent's head. This week's target: Sen. Arlen Specter. A new Franklin & Marshall poll shows Joe Sestak leading Specter by two points (38%-36%) among likely Pennsylvania primary voters, while a new Quinnipiac poll has Specter up by two (44%-42%), but that's down from his eight-point lead in the poll a week ago and his 21-point lead last month. Meanwhile, the New York Times, Washington Post, and Politico all have parachuted into the race, noting Specter's difficulty convincing Democrats to vote for this longtime former Republican. And this anecdote, via Politico, doesn't help: "[A]t the end of his remarks when Specter again thanked the 'the Allegheny County Republicans' for their endorsement, many couldn't help but laugh nervously and shoot did-he-really-just-say-that looks at each other." Specter will appear on MSNBC's "Andrea Mitchell Reports, which airs beginning at 1:00 pm ET. "

*** Looking ahead to the general: One of the more fascinating questions in Dem circles is this (and there's a real split among some of the smartest pols in the West Wing): Who is the better general-election candidate against Pat Toomey (R) -- Specter or Sestak? The Franklin & Marshall poll has Toomey leading Specter by two points among registered voters (35%-33%) and Toomey leading Sestak by one (29%-28%). By the way, we asked this question earlier, and we ask again: Can any incumbent polling under 45% less than week out win?

*** Mollohan becomes first House incumbent to lose: Last night, we saw the first House incumbent to lose this cycle -- West Virginia's Alan Mollohan, who lost his Democratic primary against state Sen. Mike Oliverio, 56%-44%. However, we should be a bit careful in over-analyzing Mollohan's defeat. There were many unique issues going on this race (the ethics clouds hovering over Mollohan, Oliverio running to Mollohan's right, Oliverio perhaps being the Dems' better general-election candidate) that you could argue that Mollohan might have met the same fate in a better environment. Still, when you start adding up Bennett, Mollohan, perhaps Specter, and maybe Blanche Lincoln, the anti-incumbent narrative overpowers all the caveats.

*** Bennett to pull a Lieberman? Speaking of Bennett, the Utah Republican hasn't ruled out a possible write-in candidacy. "Sen. Robert Bennett (R-Utah), who lost his bid for re-nomination on Saturday, has not ruled out running as a write-in candidate for the Senate this fall. 'I've made no decisions to make a decision," he said Tuesday when asked about his political future. 'I've made a firm decision not to make any decisions at the moment.' Bennett would only say he'd make a decision 'later.'" But would it be a write-in campaign in the PRIMARY or a write-in campaign in the general? There seems to be some question… Write-in via primary might be an easier pill for the GOP leadership in Washington to swallow.

*** Karzai's in town -- and is anyone paying attention? Several weeks ago, Afghanistan President Karzai was BIG news -- whether it was the threat that his government would team up with the Taliban, or the Obama administration signaling that it might cancel Karzai's upcoming visit to the U.S. Well, Karzai is in the U.S. to meet today with President Obama and the visit, surprisingly, has been overshadowed by other events. The oil spill in the Gulf. Kagan's SCOTUS nomination. The incumbents who are losing races in Utah and West Virginia. Obama holds a bilateral with Karzai at 10:15 am, and the two hold a joint press conference at 11:15 am. An hour later, they have lunch.

*** Kagan hits the Hill: Per NBC's Ken Strickland, Supreme Court nominee Elena Kagan holds her first one-on-one meetings with senators on Capitol Hill today. At 10:00 am ET, Kagan meets with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid; at 11:00 am, she visits with Minority Leader Mitch McConnell; at noon, it's with Judiciary Committee Chairman Pat Leahy; at 12:45 pm, it's with Judiciary ranking member Jeff Sessions; and at 2:30 pm, it's with Sen. Dick Durbin (D). The meetings are closed, but the press is allowed a photo-op at the beginning. It's important to note that these meetings -- especially the ones with the Senate Judiciary Committee members -- are much more than courtesy calls as ex-White House Counsel Greg Craig pointed out on "Daily Rundown" yesterday. Sotomayor acing these meetings pretty much assured her confirmation, while Harriet Miers bombing them pretty much assured her eventual withdrawal. In many ways, the real tough (and controversial) questions get asked in these private settings.

*** Kerry and Lieberman -- minus Graham: Much has happened since the last time we really discussed the Kerry-Graham-Lieberman energy/climate change legislation. First, Graham pulled his support. Second came the oil spill in the Gulf. According to the Washington Post, Kerry and Lieberman are introducing their bill today. "The energy and climate bill Sens. John Kerry (D-Mass.) and Joseph I. Lieberman (I-Conn.) will unveil Wednesday will give states the right to veto offshore oil drilling in a neighboring state, according to sources briefed on the plan." What does the public think of offshore drilling after the spill? The Arizona immigration law? President Obama's standing? The health care law? We'll have answers to those questions and more in our new NBC/WSJ poll, which comes out in full at 6:30 pm ET. 

*** Tampa, here we come? Also today, we're expected to receive a decision from the RNC about where it plans to hold its 2012 convention. As we mentioned last week, the safe bet is Tampa, FL -- given the apparent flaws with the other two possibilities of Phoenix (due to the boycotts of Arizona) and Salt Lake City (with the Romney/Mormon storyline). An RNC spokeswoman tells First Read that its site-selection committee will have a closed-door meeting this afternoon, and members will announce the city they selected. "The full RNC committee will vote to ratify the city at the summer meeting in August," the spokeswoman adds.

*** Super Senate Tuesday: With the Arkansas primary taking place six days from now, MSNBC's "Daily Rundown" interviews Bill Halter. His opponent, Sen. Blanche Lincoln, will be on the show tomorrow.
 
*** More midterm news: In Florida, at 2:45 pm ET, Charlie Crist officially changes his voter registration… In Georgia, Jimmy Carter's grandson won a special election for a state Senate seat… And in Utah: "Roughly half of likely Utah voters surveyed in a poll say they would vote for someone other than U.S. Sen. Orrin Hatch if he were up for re-election this year," the AP writes, citing a new Salt Lake Tribune poll. Hatch is not up for re-election until 2012.

Countdown to AR, KY, OR and PA primaries, and PA-12 special: 6 days
Countdown to HI special election: 10 days
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 174 days

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"Democrat Alan Mollohan became the first member of the U.S. House to be ousted this spring primary season, after his opponent mounted a campaign that questioned the 14-term congressman's ethics and support for federal health care reform," the Charleston Gazette reports. "Mollohan conceded Tuesday night, ending nearly 28 years in the House. Unofficial returns showed that with 100 percent of precincts reporting, state Sen. Mike Oliverio carried 56 percent of the votes to Mollohan's 44 percent." 

The Washington Post says Oliverio "will face former state delegate David McKinley, who won the Republican primary Tuesday night." More: "Republicans had made clear that they preferred to run against Mollohan and must now reorient their strategy. Besides being damaged by ethics allegations over the past few years, Mollohan had drawn opposition for his vote in favor of President Obama's health-care bill."

Roll Call: "GOP strategists had hoped to face a politically weakened Mollohan in the general election but are still expected to make a play for a historically Democratic but culturally conservative district that gave Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) 57 percent of the vote in the 2008 presidential election. Even with Mollohan now out of the picture, McKinley told West Virginia radio host Hoppy Kercheval on Tuesday night that his race with Oliverio 'is going to be a referendum on the Obama administration and Nancy Pelosi's liberal agenda.'"  

In Georgia: "Unofficial returns show Republicans Tom Graves and Lee Hawkins as the top finishers in the eight-person race to succeed [GOP Rep. Nathan] Deal, who stepped down from the 9th District seat to seek the GOP nomination for governor. With 97 percent of precincts reporting, Graves had 34 percent of the vote and Hawkins 23 percent." The Graves-Hawkins run-off will take place on June 8.

Also in the Peach State, Jason Carter -- Jimmy Carter's grandson -- won a special election for a suburban Atlanta state Senate seat. The AP says the victory made Jason Carter "the first in his family to win elected office since his grandfather took the White House more than three decades ago."

"This whole judicial experience thing didn't matter to top Republicans when their own party was doing the nominating," the AP writes. Texas Sen. John Cornyn in 2005 noted that "40 percent of the men and women who have served as Supreme Court justices" had no judicial experience. "One reason I felt so strongly about Harriet Miers' qualifications is I thought she would fill some very important gaps in the Supreme Court. Because right now you have people who've been federal judges, circuit judges most of their lives or academicians." Cornyn in 2010 on Kagan: "Ms. Kagan is ... a surprising choice because she lacks judicial experience," Cornyn said Monday. "Most Americans believe that prior judicial experience is a necessary credential for a Supreme Court Justice." And there are others...

Message misstep? Roll Call reports that Republicans "already appear to have a major problem" on their Kagan critique -- "Their rank-and-file Members aren't buying into it… [T]he aggressive posture doesn't appear to be resonating with many of the rank and file, who say that her lack of judicial experience should not be used against her." 

"Elena Kagan, President Obama's nominee to the Supreme Court, once recommended to President Bill Clinton that he support a Democratic-sponsored ban on some late-term abortions as a way to defeat a stronger measure gaining momentum in the Senate," the New York Times says. "As a White House domestic policy aide, Ms. Kagan sent Mr. Clinton a memorandum urging him to endorse the ban sponsored by Senator Tom Daschle, Democrat of South Dakota. The memo anticipated that the Daschle plan would fail but suggested that it would provide political cover for enough senators to stick by the president when he ultimately vetoed the tougher bill sponsored by Republicans."    

The Boston Globe: "[S]upporters of Kagan ... say her role in the law school's complicated history with the military has been oversimplified and misinterpreted. They also dismiss accusations of an antimilitary bias." 

"While Americans still are very worried about the economy, their concern over jobs has dropped to second in the Gallup poll. In the numbers released this morning, 26% of respondents said the overall economy was the most important problem facing the country, while 22% said jobs -- an eight-point drop from a month ago." 

Norm Ornstein writes: "We are losing some of our best legislators this year, which is painful to us Congress-watchers and Congress-lovers… Washington insider status is an epithet these days, endangering even some Republicans despite their minority status…

"The TARP vote may be one of the most unpopular in modern times, but it also will likely go down as one of the most beneficial to the country; I believe that it saved us from horrible depression and deflation and will prove to be very cost-effective. As for the health care reform bill, Wyden/Bennett was the only seriously bipartisan reform effort, and it was to many people (me included) the best alternative out there. That Bennett would be punished for finding a market-driven health care reform idea is truly sad." 

MASSACHUSETTS: "Governor Deval Patrick yesterday blasted Arizona's new immigration law, accused his gubernatorial opponents of grandstanding on the issue, and said supporters of such crackdowns were 'trying to invent a villain for political purposes,'" The Boston Globe writes.

"The Republican Governors Association is intensifying its campaign to beat down the independent candidacy of state Treasurer Timothy P. Cahill and give the GOP candidate, Charles D. Baker, a clearer shot at victory in the fall election," The Boston Globe reports. "Two weeks after launching $1 million worth of attack ads aimed at Cahill, the association began airing a second onslaught of negative television, radio, and Internet spots yesterday, a clear indication that the Republican Party, eager to reclaim the corner office, sees Cahill as a major impediment six months from Election Day."

MICHIGAN: Gubernatorial candidate Mike Cox released an ad criticizing his opponent Rep. Pete Hoekstra for co-sponsoring the "Bridge to Nowhere" instead of building "bridges to prosperity" in Michigan.

NEW JERSEY: "Cory Booker handily won a second term as mayor of Newark last night, and told supporters that his administration will continue to deliver change even as the New Jersey city faces a difficult financial future."

PENNSYLVANIA: "A close primary race has divided Republicans in the late Rep. John Murtha's district and has helped Democrat Mark Critz take the lead [44%-38% against Tim Burns] in the special election to replace him, according to a Susquehanna Polling & Research survey," the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review writes.

UTAH: "Roughly half of likely Utah voters surveyed in a poll say they would vote for someone other than U.S. Sen. Orrin Hatch if he were up for re-election this year," the AP writes, citing a new Salt Lake Tribune poll. Hatch is not up for re-election until 2012. 

From NBC's Jenna Pfeffer
The BBC reports: "Conservative leader David Cameron is the new U.K. prime minister ... after traveling to Buckingham Palace to formally accept the Queen's request to form the next government." 
 
Despite yesterday's speculation that the Liberal Democrats might join the Labour Party after its leader -- Gordon Brown -- stepped down, they ultimately decided to support the Conservatives. The Liberal Democrats declared that the Labour Party never took a potential progressive coalition seriously.
 
The Conservatives, led by Cameron, won the most seats in last week's U.K. elections, but they did not acquire the majority that they needed. Therefore, Liberal Democratic support was essential in their quest to take government control.
 
In his speech today, Cameron proclaimed that the Conservatives plan to establish "a proper and full coalition" with the Liberal Democrats.

From NBC's Michelle Perry and Mark Murray
Republican Sen. John Cornyn -- a member of the Judiciary Commitee that will eventually hear Supreme Court nominee Elena Kagan's testimony -- says he has real questions about Kagan's experience and her background as an educator.

Cornyn told Savannah Guthrie today on MSNBC's "Andrea Mitchell Reports": "When the president said he was going to appoint someone who could understand the impact of law on average, everyday people, Elena Kagan is not that person."

When Guthrie asked if Cornyn thought that failed Bush SCOTUS nominee Harriet Miers was more qualified than Kagan, the senator responded: "Certainly, by virtue of her practical legal experience, Ms. Miers had more experience."

(Cornyn is correct that Miers had more experience as a practicing attorney; she at one time was the first female to head a large-sized Texas law firm. But if qualified also means a deep understanding of the Supreme Court and unquestioned knowledge of the U.S. Constitution, then Cornyn's claim is more than arguable.)

Still, Cornyn thinks there is a "probability" Kagan will be confirmed -- and he also said that she will receive a "civilized and dignified hearing."

From NBC's Mark Murray and Sarah Blackwill
As we mentioned earlier this morning, Arlen Specter's (D) campaign is up with a new TV ad featuring President Obama, who praises Specter.

[Youtube:s-MqJFxMDOg]

However, it's very similar to a 2004 Specter TV ad starring George W. Bush.

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From NBC's Andrea Mitchell and Mark Murray
Vice President Biden's office just released a statement that his son, Beau, has been hospitalized in Delaware.

Delaware Attorney General Beau Biden is at Christiana Medical Center undergoing treatment at present. He is alert and awake, and communicating with his parents and his wife, who are with him. We will provide more details as they become available.

According to a spokesperson in the vice president's office, Beau Biden is up talking and conscious. This all happened after Vice President Biden completed morning shows from Delaware today. Beau also was in Delaware when this happened. *** UPDATE *** We don't know what Beau's medical condition is. 

Note there is family medical history here, with Joe Biden having recovered fully from an aneurysm.

*** UPDATE *** The Vice President's office just released a statement from Dr. Timothy Gardner, medical director of the Center for Heart and Vascular Surgery at Christiana Care Health System, who said that Beau Biden might have suffered a mild stroke.

"Delaware Attorney General Beau Biden was admitted this morning to Christiana Hospital in Newark, Delaware after having what we believe to be a mild stroke. He is in good spirits and talking with his family at the hospital. He is fully alert, in stable condition and has full motor and speech skills. We expect him to make a complete recovery."  

From NBC's Courtney Kube
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Afghan President Hamid Karzai both said that any disagreements between their two countries would not hinder several days of meetings while the Afghan leader is visiting D.C.

"The ability to disagree on issues of importance to our respective countries and peoples is not an obstacle to achieving our shared objectives," Clinton said, adding that disagreement actually "reflects a level of trust that is essential to any meaningful dialogue and enduring strategic partnership."

Surrounded by U.S. and Afghan leaders, Clinton spoke at the opening meeting this morning for about 12 minutes, saying that the U.S. "has no illusions about the difficult road ahead," but still promising that the U.S. commitment to Afghanistan would endure "long after the last combat soldier has laid down his arms."

Karzai then began a rambling 11-minute stream-of-conscience-like statement, introducing several members of his delegation and beginning nearly every sentence with "Madame Secretary." He thanked the U.S. for being a part of a "very important part" of Afghanistan's history, saying that Afghans are known around the world for not forgetting the past, and they will not forget the U.S. contribution.

Karzai also downplayed recent tensions between "As two mature nations and two mature governments, by now the Afghan government is mature, too, we will be having disagreements from time to time," Karzai said, adding that disagreements from time to time are the sign of a mature relationship.

Also in the meeting: Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mike Mullen, FBI Director Robert Mueller, CIA Director Leon Panetta, Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack, Commander of NATO-ISAF Forces General Stan McChrystal, Ambassador Karl Eikenberry, Afghan Minister of Defense Wardak, and Special Representative to Afghanistan and Pakistan Richard Holbrooke.

Bob Bennett's defeat might be just the beginning… Does Alan Mollohan in West Virginia become the next incumbent to lose?... What happened to Specter?... The Pennsylvania Democrat airs a new TV ad featuring Obama…. McCain's "complete the danged fence" ad contradicts much of what he said on illegal immigration from 2005-2007… Kagan's good, but not great, roll out (and what's with David Brooks criticizing someone for being an ambitious, yet cautious, overachiever from the Acela Corridor?)… Why WV-1 matters… Polls close in West Virginia at 7:30 pm ET, and they close in Nebraska at 9:00 pm ET.

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** Throw'em out: Republican Bob Bennett's defeat on Saturday might have been only the start of what's to come. Today and next Tuesday, there will be primaries where we could see additional incumbents lose -- this time on the Democratic side. Voters today head to the polls in West Virginia, where longtime Rep. Alan Mollohan (D) could be in jeopardy of losing his seat; he's trying to fend off a primary challenge from state Sen. Mike Oliverio. Then next week, we'll have primaries in Arkansas (where Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln is facing a primary challenge from Bill Halter) and in Pennsylvania (where one tracking poll has Joe Sestak now leading incumbent Sen. Arlen Specter). What happens in these three contests could very well establish a clear theme for this midterm cycle: anti-incumbency (er, anti-WASHINGTON) -- on both sides. Because in West Virginia, this isn't a clear left-right primary challenge; Mollohan's been trying to run to his primary challengers left at times.

*** What's the matter with Specter? How did Specter go from leading by double digits to now trailing in one tracking poll? We have one theory: Voters in Pennsylvania have longer memories than Washington does. While the famously unpredictable Specter has been a reliably Democratic vote since switching parties, many Democratic voters have spent decades voting against him. And so it took just one Sestak TV ad -- linking Specter to Bush and Palin, and also highlighting that Specter switched parties to save his job -- to drive home the message that Specter isn't a Democrat. Terry Madonna, who directs Franklin and Marshall College's Keystone Poll, tells First Read that Specter is being "triple whammied" by his GOP past, by Sestak's message, and by a potentially anti-incumbent wave. 

*** And what does Specter do now? In response, Specter is going up with a TV ad that features Obama praising the Pennsylvania senator. (Interestingly, the ad is VERY similar to the one Specter ran in 2004 featuring Bush praising him.) Another question: Does Obama go campaign for Specter? On "TODAY," Vice President Biden told NBC's Matt Lauer that he will campaign for Specter on Friday and possibly Monday, but he didn't say if Obama would do the same (though the implication seemed to be that Biden was going to do whatever asked, in lieu of Specter asking for another Obama appearance). The one thing that could very well benefit Specter is organization -- labor, Rendell, and the DSCC are all backing him. And don't forget that, in 2004, many of us thought that Specter wasn't going to beat Toomey in his GOP primary. But he did…

*** McCain's "Danged" ad: Could this same theory we mentioned above -- that voters have a longer memory than Washington does -- and also the wave of anti-incumbency/Washington apply to John McCain, too? The Arizona senator has a tough new anti-illegal immigration TV ad ("Complete the Danged Fence") that contradicts much of what he said on the issue from 2005-2007, like this comment from the GOP presidential primary debates ("We're not going to erect barriers and fences"). Politicians reverse course all the time --remember when Obama opposed health-care mandates? -- but McCain's new TV ad can strike some as so antithetical to his political identity, nearly the equivalent of Ronald Reagan airing an ad praising the air-traffic controllers. On the other hand, it appears McCain is trying to sell skeptical Arizona GOP voters that he's gotten the message on immigration. In this ad, he almost seems to be telling them, "You convinced me." The question is whether they will buy it. Should McCain have gone one more step in the ad and acknowledged his previous opposition to the fence? 

*** A good, but not great, roll out: Yesterday's Kagan roll out by the White House was good -- but not great. What she seems to be lacking is a compelling narrative like we saw with Sotomayor's nomination. In his New York Times column, David Brooks hits on this, criticizing her for being an overachieving, yet cautious, striver from the Acela Corridor (which is a bit ironic because that description could apply to Brooks, too). "She also is apparently prudential, deliberate and cautious," he writes. "She does not seem to be one who leaps into a fray when the consequences might be unpredictable." Still, all signs are pointing to Kagan's eventual confirmation mainly because there's not the energy -- on either side -- for a long protracted battle. But given some of the tougher-than-expected hits we saw from Republicans yesterday (no judicial experience, on living nowhere outside DC/NYC/Chicago), we're pretty convinced that anyone more liberal than Kagan (like Diane Wood) would have started with a much lower vote ceiling than Kagan has right now. 

*** California, here we come: In California, Steve Poizner is suddenly catching up to Meg Whitman in the state's GOP gubernatorial primary. What's going on there? It appears that voters are starting to get engaged (though a tad late) – like they did in Pennsylvania and Arkansas.

*** If It's Tuesday...: As mentioned above, voters today head to the polls in West Virginia and also in Nebraska. The race to watch is the Democratic congressional primary in WV-1, which one of us previewed on Friday. Democrats think Alan Mollohan, the longtime incumbent, could be in jeopardy of losing his seat. Mollohan, who faced ethical questions in 2006 but survived because of the national climate, is trying to fend off a challenge from state Sen. Mike Oliverio. Regardless of who wins the primary, Republicans are targeting this seat. And this is not 2006, either. Polls open at 6:30 am ET and close at 7:30 pm ET. In Nebraska, Gov. Dave Heineman (R) faces primary challengers, but is favored to win. Polls there are open from 9:00 am ET to 9:00 pm ET. 

*** Why WV-1 matters: The big question on Election Night will likely be whether Republicans will take back control of the House. And WV-1, which we listed as one of our Majority Makers, is one of those places where the GOP probably HAS to win if they are going to take over the House. Remember, they need 40 seats. That's a lot -- and it also means they have to win in some places where Democrats are currently favored. If Oliverio somehow pulls off the upset, that likely moves the seat toward the Republicans. And even if Mollohan survives, he could be in for a tough fight this fall.

Countdown to AR, KY, OR and PA primaries, and PA-12 special: 7 days
Countdown to HI special election: 11 days
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 175 days

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Text FIRST to 622639, to sign up for First Read alerts to your mobile phone.
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"Supreme Court nominee Elena Kagan embarks on her quest for Senate confirmation with a strong presumption of success, drawing praise from majority Democrats and nary the threat of an all-out election-year battle from Republicans," the AP writes.

New York Daily News veteran Washington watcher Tom DeFrank writes: "Elena Kagan's confirmation should sail through like fellow New Yorker Sonia Sotomayor's slam dunk last August -- and perhaps more easily. Kagan fits the political profile of an ideal pick -- she's young, brilliant, already confirmed once as solicitor general and gets along well with the brethren on the bench she'll soon join."

That said… "By choosing his administration's chief legal advocate for an open seat on the court, President Obama triggered a hailstorm of conservative accusations that he is seeking an automatic vote in favor of his legislative agenda," the Washington Post says. "On the other side of the ideological spectrum, liberals -- while generally supportive -- worried whether Kagan would be a reliable counterweight to the court's conservative majority." 

The New York Times: "The selection of Solicitor General Elena Kagan to be the nation's 112th justice extends a quarter-century pattern in which Republican presidents generally install strong conservatives on the Supreme Court while Democratic presidents pick candidates who often disappoint their liberal base." 

The Boston Globe's front page features a beaming Obama looking at a smiling Elena Kagan with the headline, "Into battle over Kagan."  
 
Here's the Globe's longer look at her time as Harvard's dean: "If she is confirmed as a Supreme Court justice, Elena Kagan will be well prepared for the fractiousness that often marks the nation's highest court, having brought peace and, some say, happiness to Harvard Law School. During her nearly six years as the first female dean of the school, Kagan earned high marks for building consensus among the faculty's notoriously warring factions. She modernized curriculum and attracted academic stars, transforming an institution that had a stellar name but was, by many accounts, ossified and often dysfunctional. She made 43 teaching appointments, a stunning number, given that divisions among the faculty, which must approve hirings, had resulted in a logjam. Several of her appointments included professors with conservative leanings, which helped assuage complaints that Harvard did not welcome such views."

Looking for old photos of Kagan? Try this slideshow, including this one of her in high school.  
 
The Wall Street Journal, on its front page, features a photo of Kagan playing softball.