From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell
Nevada Republican John Ensign apparently heard a few too many comparisons that Wall Street behaved like Las Vegas. 

He took issue. 

Ensign's family is in the casino business. The senator faces his own ethical issues after an affair and accusations he used improper influence to help the woman's husband get lobbying work.

"Many people in Las Vegas take offense to Wall Street," Ensign said, according to a rough transcript. "In Las Vegas, people know the odds against them and play anyway." On Wall Street, though, they "manipulate odds while you're playing the game."

He added that those on Wall Street tweak the odds in their favor.

Sen. Mark Pryor of Arkansas added, "In Las Vegas, people are betting play with their own money" -- unlike on Wall Street.

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Charlie Crist is expected to announce his Senate plans Thursday.

"Speaking to reporters after Tuesday's Cabinet meeting, Crist said, 'I'd like to wrap it up,'" AP reports. "Asked what has changed that's making him consider an independent run, Crist quietly responded, 'I don't know.'"

Adam Smith at the St. Pete Times also floats this possibility:

"Another key date for Charlie Crist's senate deliberations June 18. Why? Because that's the when ballots are printed for the Aug. 24 primary. One option not yet off the table is for Charlie Crist to qualify for the Republican primary and spend the next seven weeks pounding on Marco Rubio and/or praying for more dirt to emerge on the Miami frontrunner. If it still looks bleak by then, Crist could drop out of the race in time to have his name removed from the ballot. He wouldn't have to face an electoral loss and he wouldn't be accused of betraying his party."

From msnbc.com's Carrie Dann
Barack Obama's home state of Illinois may be just across the river from the southeastern Iowa counties he will visit this afternoon, but the Hawkeye State is probably starting to feel pretty familiar to the president as well.

Today's swing through the nation's first caucus state will be Obama's third since becoming president. He visited Iowa City in March to tout the freshly signed health-care bill, and he hit the city of Newton in central Iowa last year to celebrate Earth Day.

And that's on top of more than 175 public appearances that Obama made in the state while campaigning for the Jan. 3 Democratic caucuses, according to records kept by the Iowa Democratic Party.

On today's economy-themed trip, he'll make three stops in southeastern Iowa: in Mount Pleasant, Ottumwa, and Ft. Madison. The three counties he plans to stop in are familiar territory for the one-time upstart presidential candidate. The IDP's caucus tally shows that Obama stopped in Lee County twice in 2007 while campaigning in the state, appeared in Henry County's Mount Pleasant once, and made two public appearances in Wapello County's Ottumwa.

(That investment paid off in the form of a caucus victory for Obama in only one of the three counties: Henry. Hillary Clinton pulled in the most support in Lee County, the southernmost in the state. John Edwards -- who appeared twice for community meetings at the same community college where Obama will hold a town hall meeting today -- won in Wapello. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee won all three counties on Jan. 3 in the Republican caucuses.)

From NBC's Betsy Cline and Domenico Montanaro
House Republican Leader John Boehner told reporters today that he "respected" Arizona's newly-passed immigration law. At a brief press conference following the weekly House Republican leadership meeting, Boehner carefully avoided saying whether or not he agreed with the law, but said, "We respect the people of Arizona and their right to write their own laws."

Rep. Eric Cantor, House minority whip and the only Jewish member in attendance, told reporters that comparisons between the Arizona legislation and Nazi Germany "smack of being inappropriate."

Florida Senate candidate Marco Rubio, a Tea Party favorite, released a statement, saying he has "concerns" about the legislation, but also walking a fine line. He said, in part:

States certainly have the right to enact policies to protect their citizens, but Arizona's policy shows the difficulty and limitations of states trying to act piecemeal to solve what is a serious federal problem. From what I have read in news reports, I do have concerns about this legislation. While I don't believe Arizona's policy was based on anything other than trying to get a handle on our broken borders, I think aspects of the law, especially that dealing with 'reasonable suspicion,' are going to put our law enforcement officers in an incredibly difficult position. It could also unreasonably single out people who are here legally, including many American citizens. Throughout American history and throughout this administration we have seen that when government is given an inch it takes a mile. I hope Congress and the Obama Administration will use the Arizona legislation not as an excuse to try and jam through amnesty legislation, but to finally act on border states' requests for help with security and fix the things about our immigration system that can be fixed right now -- securing the border, reforming the visa and entry process, and cracking down on employers who exploit illegal immigrants.

Boehner also used today's press conference to cast doubt on the purpose of Obama's debt commission, which is meeting in Washington now.

"Washington doesn't have a revenue problem, Washington has a spending problem," Boehner said of the commission. "I hope this is a serious effort," he said, "and I hope it doesn't become an excuse to raise taxes."

From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell
Four Democratic Senators today are objecting to a new privacy policy that Facebook announced earlier this month. The senators say this change makes personal info more available.

Sens. Charles Schumer (NY), Michael Bennet (CO), Mark Begich (AK) and Al Franken (MN) are sending a letter urging Facebook to change its "opt out" policy to an "opt in," so users can avoid receiving unsolicited advertisements. 

Aides say users can opt out, but the default is that their info is accessible to outside Web sites. The senators want Facebook to reverse that. 

They are also complaining to the Federal Trade Commission.

*** UPDATE *** Facebook reached out to First Read for a response. "We appreciate the concerns raised by Sen. Schumer and expect that further dialogue with interested members of Congress about the user controls that accompany the tools announced by Facebook last week will alleviate any concerns they may have," said spokesman Andrew Noyes.

Facebook also wrote a blog post on the issue, trying to answer questions users might have and penned a letter to Schumer, in which it claims: "Facebook is a leader in transparency of our policies, notification to our users, and security of their data."

From NBC's Ken Strickland
According to Democratic leadership aides, Majority Leader Harry Reid will call for another vote to start the debate on the financial regulatory reform bill this afternoon.

The vote is set for 4:30 pm ET.

Reid fell two votes short yesterday of the 60 needed to bring the bill to the floor.

If at first you don't succeed on Wall Street reform, try, try again… Goldman's Blankfein testifies on the Hill… Obama heads to IA and the Midwest… Grover Norquist's group goes after Alan Simpson (and Simpson will respond on MSNBC's "Andrea Mitchell Reports")… First Read profiles SCOTUS possibility Martha Minow (who taught Obama at Harvard Law)… Tim Burns plays the Murtha card in PA-12… And a new Salt Lake Tribune poll has Sen. Bob Bennett in third among UT GOP convention-goers.

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** Let's try this again: In the early evening yesterday, Republicans united to stop Democrats from getting 60 votes to move the financial reform legislation to the Senate floor. In the 57-41 vote, Democratic Sen. Ben Nelson joined the Republicans (as did Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, in a procedural move so he can call for another vote later). Democrats immediately pounced, accusing Republicans of trying to protect Wall Street. Republicans responded with their attack that the Dem legislation institutionalizes Wall Street bailouts. Reid plans to call for more votes today, tomorrow and beyond, and the betting is that the legislation will eventually reach the floor and get passed after Dems make some tweaks to the bill. The Washington Post: "GOP negotiators said their goal remains a final bill that includes enough changes that it can win broad support from both parties. But Democrats are looking to limit their concessions and say they will probably win a few conversions among Republicans who have expressed support for the overwhelming majority of the bill in its current form."

*** Goldman on the Hill: As the Senate attempts to get the financial reform bill to the floor, Goldman Sachs is back in the news. Beginning at 10:00 am ET, Goldman CEO Lloyd Blankfein testifies before the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee. According to open remarks, Blankfein will say this about the SEC's fraud case against Goldman: "While we strongly disagree with the SEC's complaint, I also recognize how such a complicated transaction may look to many people. To them, it is confirmation of how out of control they believe Wall Street has become, no matter how sophisticated the parties or what disclosures were made. We have to do a better job of striking the balance between what an informed client believes is important to his or her investing goals and what the public believes is overly complex and risky." Fabrice ("fab Fab") Tourre also will testify.

*** Obama's Midwest swing: As we noted throughout the 2008 presidential campaign, geography was an important secret to Obama's success. In both the nominating contests and general election, he won the states -- or came really close -- that border Illinois: IN, IA MO, and WI. (The sole exception was KY, which also shares a border with Illinois.) Indeed, his electoral math was pretty much this: Win the East Coast, West Coast, and Midwest (as well as CO, NV, NC, and VA). Today and tomorrow, President Obama returns to the Midwest region to talk jobs and the economy. He makes two stops in Southeast Iowa today (delivering remarks in Ft. Madison at 2:10 pm ET and holding a town hall in Ottumwa at 5:35 pm ET.) According to a Des Moines Register poll in February, Obama's approval rating in Iowa dipped to 49%-44%. On Wednesday, the president hits Macon, MO and Quincy, IL. 

*** Obama, Culver, Carnahan, and Alexi: The New York Times' Zeleny writes that this trip to Iowa, the state that brought Obama's presidential candidacy to life, appears designed to bolster his standing. "The president's name may not be on the ballot in November, but his record is on the line. For the past 50 years, nearly without exception, the party has lost seats whenever its president's average approval rating in September and October before the election dropped below 50 percent." But Obama isn't the only Democratic politician whose political standing might need a boost while the president is on this Midwest swing -- so too does Iowa Gov. Chet Culver (whose re-election chances look incredibly shaky), Senate candidate Robin Carnahan (who will appear with Obama on Wednesday and is locked in a tight contest vs. Roy Blunt), and Illinois Senate candidate Alexi Giannoulias (who will join Obama in Quincy, IL on Wednesday). 

*** Grover Norquist vs. Alan Simpson: Before Obama departs on his Midwest swing, he will greet members of his deficit-reduction commission, chaired by former Clinton Chief of Staff Erskine Bowles (D) and former Sen. Alan Simpson (R). And the president will deliver brief remarks about the commission's work at 9:45 am ET. But already, Grover Norquist's Americans for Tax Reform is trying to delegitimize Simpson's GOP and tax-cutting credentials by noting that the former senator, among other things, voted for the tax hike that broke George H.W. Bush's "read my lips" tax pledge, supported the Social Security tax hike during Reagan's presidency, and voted against the Tax Reform Act of 1986. (Of course, what does this say about Americans for Tax Reform when H.W. Bush and Reagan also backed some of these tax increases?) Tune into MSNBC's "Andrea Mitchell Reports," which airs beginning at 1:00 pm, for Simpson's response to Norquist; Andrea Mitchell pre-taped an interview with both Simpson and Bowles. "Andrea Mitchell Reports" also interviews Homeland Security Secretary Napolitano to talk about the new Arizona immigration law. 

*** No SCOTUS pick this week: Yesterday, White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs confirmed that President Obama WOULD NOT be making his Supreme Court pick this week. Our best guess is to expect the pick to come next week or the week after…

*** Meet Martha Minow: In our latest look at potential SCOTUS replacements, we profile Martha Minow, dean of Harvard Law School. She's served in that post since 2009, when she replaced Elena Kagan, who's another SCOTUS possibility. Minow, who has been on the Harvard faculty since 1981, is close to Obama and taught him while he was in law school there. In 2009, Obama nominated her to the board of the Legal Services Corporation. The Boston Globe reported: "Minow helped inspire Obama to enter public service instead of seeking his fortune on Wall Street. 'When I was at Harvard Law School I had a teacher who changed my life -- Martha Minow,' he said during the 2008 presidential campaign." Minow's father, Newt, was one of Obama's mentors at the Chicago law firm where Obama worked." Minow clerked for Justice Thurgood Marshall, earned her law degree from Yale, did her undergrad work at Michigan, and got her master's in education at Harvard. (She's also a lecturer at Harvard's Graduate School of Education.) 
 
*** Minow's pros and cons: Pros: Minow is an accomplished academic. The White House could sell her as someone who knows how law affects the daily lives of the American people because of her work on human rights (she founded Co-existence, a U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees Program), as well as her background in family law and her work on challenges students with disabilities face. Among her cons: Minow has never been a judge, so there are no judicial opinions to comb through that would signal what kind of justice she would be. What is out there reveals a pretty liberal track record, which could make for a fight from Republicans. She was one of four law school deans to pen a letter to Congress, advocating for a repeal of the military's "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" policy.

*** Super Senate Tuesday: In Kentucky, Rand Paul is airing a new TV ad touting the endorsement he received from retiring Sen. Jim Bunning (R)… Also in Kentucky, Dan Mongiardo and Jack Conway are running new TV ads… And in the special election to replace the late Rep. Jack Murtha (D), Tim Burns (R) has a new TV ad hitting Mark Critz's ties to Murtha.

*** More midterm news: In Massachusetts, the RGA is hitting independent Tim Cahill in TV and radio ads "to clear a path" for GOP gubernatorial candidate Charles Baker, the Boston Globe writes… In New York, Republicans are preparing "to file a lawsuit this week that would force New York Democratic Gov. David Paterson to call a special election for the seat vacated by former Rep. Eric Massa (D-N.Y.)," Politico says… And in Utah, a new Salt Lake Tribune poll shows incumbent Sen. Bob Bennett (R) in third place among GOP convention delegates.

Countdown to IN, NC, and OH primaries: 7 days
Countdown to NE and WV primaries: 14 days
Countdown to AR, KY, OR and PA primaries, and PA-12 special: 21 days
Countdown to HI special election: 25 days
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 189 days

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"Republicans closed ranks Monday to block Democrats' overhaul of financial regulation, a standoff that throws the sweeping legislation into a period of uncertainty," the Wall Street Journal writes. "On a 57-41 vote, Democrats fell short of the 60 votes they needed to begin debate, even losing one of their own. The vote dramatized how politicized the debate has become on an issue once thought to be a ripe for cross-party cooperation." 

The New York Times adds, "Republicans said they were intent on winning substantive changes to the bill and accused the Democrats of rushing the most far-reaching overhaul of the financial regulatory system since the Great Depression. Both sides say they expect the overhaul eventually will be approved." 

The Boston Globe: "The 57-to-41 vote -- three shy of the number that Senate rules say are needed to end the filibuster and proceed -- is a setback for Democrats who have been pushing for the biggest overhaul of financial regulations since the Great Depression. It could give Republicans, who oppose several key aspects of the proposal, more momentum in brokering a bipartisan compromise. Polls suggest the legislation is popular with the public, but it has drawn strong opposition from securities industry lobbyists. Democrats appeared intent on pushing forward, betting that Republicans will eventually cave under public pressure to support the bill."  
 
The New York Daily News: "The setback may only be temporary. Key Democrats and Republicans are still trying to reach a deal for a bipartisan reform package."  
 
Roll Call sees it this way: "Senate Democrats got exactly what they wanted Monday night: a concrete way to try to tar Republicans as beholden to Wall Street schemers who would put the country in danger of another financial industry collapse."  
 
And how about this? "Sen. Ben Nelson may find himself embroiled in yet another controversy over special deals for his state, considering the Nebraska Democrat on Monday voted against bringing up a financial regulatory reform bill after a provision that could have benefited Nebraska billionaire Warren Buffett was dropped," Roll Call reports. 

A Goldman grilling? "Fabrice Tourre was smooth with the ladies, but the Goldman Sachs trader at the center of the firm's big scandal will have a tougher time charming a panel of senators Tuesday," the New York Daily News reports. "The elusive Tourre -- or 'fab Fab,' as he calls himself -- is due to be grilled by an investigations subcommittee along with Goldman Chairman Lloyd Blankfein. The Securities and Exchange Commission charges the firm drew investors toward the collapsing housing market in 2007 -- then made big money by helping to bet against it. Racy e-mails suggest Tourre, a 31-year-old Frenchman, wasn't just playing the market -- he was playing two women at the same time.

The Senate HELP Committee will focus on mine safety today.  
 
Must be nice... "Most careers end with a gold watch or a happy hour. For retiring House Science and Technology Chairman Bart Gordon (D-Tenn.), the parting gift from the nation's taxpayers appears to be an all-expenses-paid tour of Italy, Switzerland and China," Roll Call reports. "Gordon told his constituents in mid-December that he was calling it quits after 13 terms. Since then, the Blue Dog Coalition member has embarked on a global victory lap of sorts, spending tens of thousands of dollars to sample international locales while traveling on official government business."

It's all about debt and the economy for President Obama today as he speaks before the first meeting of his debt commission and then heads out to the Midwest with stops in Iowa.  
 
The New York Times: "[O]n Tuesday, Mr. Obama is returning to the place his candidacy sprang to life, here in Iowa, for the start of a two-day trip to the Midwest. He is not planning to appear with Democratic candidates as he moves from city to city on the latest leg of his Main Street economic tour, but rather to talk -- and listen -- to factory workers, farmers and citizens he meets along the way."

Also: "The president's visit, which will be followed on Wednesday by stops in Missouri and Illinois, has a secondary purpose. His advisers say that every trip to Iowa, the state that delivered his first victory on the road to the White House, fortifies Mr. Obama and recharges his batteries for the headwinds to come."

"The furor over Arizona's new law cracking down on illegal immigrants grew Monday as opponents used refried beans to smear swastikas on the state Capitol, civil rights leaders demanded a boycott of the state and the Obama administration weighed a possible legal challenge," the AP writes. 

A congressional hearing with Janet Napolitano today is expected to take a turn to immigration. Yesterday, she said of the law, "That one is a misguided law. It's not a good law enforcement law. It's not a good law in any number of reasons."

The DNC has produced a Web video targeting Mitt Romney on the financial reform legislation. Says a Dem source: "We're not waiting until this fall to make a campaign issue out of unanimous Republican opposition to Wall Street reform; we're starting right now."

The Hill writes, "Romney has been out in front of other 2012 Republicans in opposition to the bill, and is arguably the candidate most seen with the closest ties to the financial services industry, having graduated from the Harvard Business School and founded Bain Capital, a major private equity firm."

Meanwhile, the RNC produced a Web video whacking Obama's "job-less" tour across the country.

The AP's Sidoti dives into the thorny issue of immigration: "Arizona's tough new immigration law swiftly reconfigured the national political landscape in an already high-octane election year. It creates peril for Democrats and Republicans on a divisive issue with implications for national security, states rights and race… It's almost certain that neither Republicans nor Democrats wanted to have a fight over such a volatile issue just six months before congressional elections that will determine the balance of power in Washington."

ARIZONA: Yesterday, we mentioned one group's allegation that Lindsey Graham was trying to protect John McCain from having to take a vote on immigration by saying he wouldn't cooperate if it went ahead of climate change. Today, Roll Call reports on Jon Kyl's efforts at campaigning and raising money for McCain most weekends. "Kyl is using his immense credibility with conservatives to shore up McCain's right flank -- a liability for the longtime political maverick," the paper writes. "It's my top priority," Kyl said of McCain's race ranks on his political to-do list. 

INDIANA: "The path back [for Dan Coats] hasn't been as smooth as the Republican Party envisioned when it recruited Coats to challenge Democratic Sen. Evan Bayh, who later decided he wouldn't seek re-election," AP writes. "Coats' long Washington record, years away from the state and challenges from the right have raised some doubts about him securing the nomination in the May 4 primary. Consider this: Days after he announced he would run, Coats stopped by a local deli to talk to voters. The first question from a married couple: 'Where do you live?' Coats explained that he had just leased a home in Indianapolis and would be selling his house in North Carolina, but the encounter proved emblematic of a fitful campaign." 

KENTUCKY: "The latest installment of the air war in the Democratic Senate primary has Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo hitting state Attorney General Jack Conway in a pair of 15-second ads," Roll Call writes. "One of the commercials casts Conway as beholden to Wall Street interests. The other suggests that he isn't an advocate for coal."  
 
MASSACHUSETTS: "The Republican Governors Association, hoping to clear a path for Charles D. Baker, will launch a hard-hitting television and radio ad campaign today targeting state Treasurer Timothy P. Cahill, an independent who is trying to outflank Baker on the right in this year's governor's race," the Boston Globe reports.   
 
NEW YORK: "New York Republicans are preparing to file a lawsuit this week that would force New York Democratic Gov. David Paterson to call a special election for the seat vacated by former Rep. Eric Massa (D-N.Y.), Politico reports.  
 
UTAH: "Unless Sen. Bob Bennett's political fortunes change dramatically in the next two weeks, he could become Utah's first incumbent U.S. senator to lose his party's nomination in seven decades. A new Salt Lake Tribune poll of Republican delegates shows Bennett running in third [with 16%], behind GOP challengers Mike Lee [37%] and Tim Bridgewater [20%]." 

From NBC's Mark Murray
Statement from President Obama on the GOP blocking the financial reform legislation from moving forward in the Senate:

I am deeply disappointed that Senate Republicans voted in a block against allowing a public debate on Wall Street reform to begin. Some of these Senators may believe that this obstruction is a good political strategy, and others may see delay as an opportunity to take this debate behind closed doors, where financial industry lobbyists can water down reform or kill it altogether. But the American people can't afford that. A lack of consumer protections and a lack of accountability on Wall Street nearly brought our economy to its knees, and helped cause the pain that has left millions of Americans without jobs and without homes. The reform that both parties have been working on for a year would prevent a crisis like this from happening again, and I urge the Senate to get back to work and put the interests of the country ahead of party.

From NBC's Mark Murray
Breaking News, per the AP: "Republicans block action on financial regulation in legislation's first Senate showdown."

The vote was 57-41; 60 votes were to move the legislation to the floor. One Senate Democrat, Ben Nelson, voted with the Republicans. (*** UPDATE *** NBC's Ken Strickland adds that Harry Reid also voted NO but only because he had to switch his vote from "yes" in order to call for another vote later; it's a procedural thing. Republicans Bennett and Bond did not vote today.)  

The legislation's prospects for passage are still alive. But Republicans -- and Nelson perhaps -- are blocking the legislation from proceeding to make changes to it.

Still, Democrats are pouncing on Republicans for blocking the legislation. Here is New Jersey Sen. Bob Menendez, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee: "We now have Republicans on the record voting to giving big banks $700 billion of taxpayer funds -- but opposing holding them accountable for it. November will be a choice for voters, and over the past few months, Republicans have positioned themselves on the side of the special interests. On health care, Republicans stood with the insurance companies. On tobacco legislation, Republicans stood with big tobacco. On Wall Street reform, Republicans are standing with the corporate interests. Make no mistake about it: voters will understand that Democrats are the ones cleaning up the mess we inherited by putting the people's interests ahead of the special interests."

And here's Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid: "Senate Democrats are committed to holding Wall Street accountable and putting consumers back in control. We expect to have more votes this week in order to move our bill to the floor. We remain open to working with our Republican colleagues, but we will not tolerate efforts to slow-walk this process or water down this reform because it is too important to middle-class families in Nevada and across America."

From NBC's Pete Williams
Official concern is very low over the Ohio man arrested Sunday at the North Carolina airport where President Obama's plane took off.

Based on the airport police report, it appears that Joseph McVey pulled into the rental car parking lot about a minute after the president's plane left. His appearance provoked curiosity, because his car was loaded with police scanners and antennas. He had flashing police-style lights and a siren. And he was carrying a sidearm.

However, officials say he had a license to carry the gun and was apparently the kind of person who likes to hang around cops and help out -- in parades with crowd control, for example. 

This morning, one official familiar with the investigation says McVey heard the president's plane was at the airport and wanted to see it take off.

McVey has been charged with a misdemeanor, common law public nuisance violation. But there's nothing to indicate that it's going to go much further.

From NBC's Mark Murray
Why are Senate Democrats proceeding on their financial reform bill -- despite maybe not having the 60 votes (right now) needed to bring the legislation to the floor?

Because of poll numbers like these:

A new Washington Post/ABC poll finds that 65% of Americans support stricter regulations on how banks and financial institutions conduct their business.

Overall, the public is split on how President Obama is handling the regulation of the financial industry -- 48% approve and 48% disapprove.

But they trust Obama on this issue more than they do Republicans -- 52% say they trust the president to do a better job handling this issue, while 35% say they trust Republicans more.

The poll was conducted of 1,001 adults from April 22 to April 25, and it has a margin of error of plus-minus 3 percentage points.

From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell
The Senate comes back at 2:00 pm ET, with an opportunity for senators to talk about any issue. At 3:00 pm, it resumes consideration the Financial Regulatory Reform bill. And at 5:00 pm, the Senate takes what is commonly referred to as a "test vote." 

The actual terminology is: "the motion to invoke cloture on the motion to proceed to S. 3217."

This vote is just a first step to bring the bill to the Senate floor and begin debate.  If Democrats fail to reach the needed 60 votes as if expected now, they can continue negotiations with Republicans and try again. A miss for Democrats today does not kill the bill.

Still, Democrats are almost daring Republicans to block today's procedural vote. "Today, Republicans face a major choice: Will they stand up for the American people, and join us to hold Wall Street accountable for the reckless gambling that cost 8 million Americans their jobs and millions more their economic livelihood? Or will they follow the marching orders they've been getting at their secret, closed-door meetings with Wall Street executives, and continue to protect Wall Street?" said a spokesman to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.

"We remain eager to work with Republicans who are sincere about reforming Wall Street, and we are hopeful for bipartisan agreement on this important effort. But there are no two ways about it: a vote against even opening debate on holding Wall Street accountable is a vote to protect Wall Street."

Obama video asks supporters for their help in the midterms… Keeping track of the next five weeks in politics… Will Senate Dems get 60 votes to move forward on the financial reform bill?... Trying to make sense of Lindsey Graham's reversal (on energy and immigration)… Why both political parties didn't want to move on immigration until 2011… Profiling potential SCOTUS candidate Jennifer Granholm… The Giannoulias bank failure… And wrapping up the Lincoln-vs.-Halter and Grayson-vs.-Paul debates.

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** Nationalize this: This morning, the Democratic National Committee and Organizing for America (Obama's 13 million-member grassroots email list) will be blasting out a video of President Obama asking supporters for their help in the 2010 midterm elections. In particular, the Democrats are hoping to mobilize the so-called "Obama surge voters" -- young voters, minority voters, and often first-time voters who turned out in 2008. Dems were unsuccessful in getting these folks to the polls in last year's New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial contests and in this year's special Senate election in Massachusetts. The White House and the DNC are embracing the 2010 midterms as referendum on Obama. But will the candidates follow suit? Not every Democrat running wants the midterms nationalized, and this will lead to some disagreements. But as recent history suggests, going local doesn't always work in wave elections. This is a page from the '02 Bush playbook, in which the GOP embraced the nationalization of the election. Of course, this isn't 2002…

*** The next five weeks: Between now and Memorial Day, there will enough events on the calendar to keep the political world plenty busy. Here's a helpful clip-and-save calendar to keep track of them all:
April 30: Florida's filing deadline (will Charlie Crist, as expected, make an indie bid?)
May 4: OH, IN, and NC primaries
May 6: Parliamentary elections in Britain
May 7: April's job numbers are released
May 8: UT GOP convention
May 11: NE and WV primaries
May 18: Super Senate Tuesday: AR, KY, and PA primaries, plus PA-12 special election
May 22: Special congressional election in Hawaii
In Between: We'll likely see final action of the financial reform legislation, Obama's SCOTUS pick, maybe work on immigration, and movement on energy/climate change (though that's less likely with Lindsey Graham pulling his support). Phew.

*** Showdown in the Senate: Speaking of the financial reform legislation, we're expected to see a procedural vote to bring the bill to the Senate floor; it needs 60 votes to pass. And right now, it's unclear whether Democrats will be able to convince at least one Republican to get to 60. The Washington Post: "Despite optimism on both sides that a bipartisan compromise will emerge, the lack of a deal has increased the chances of at least a temporary showdown between the two parties… 'It's my expectation that we will not go forward with this partisan bill tomorrow,' Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said on 'Fox News Sunday.' 'It's not ready yet.'" More from another Republican: "'I think that nothing happens between now and tomorrow, that the Democrats will not get cloture,' Sen. Richard C. Shelby (Ala.) said" on NBC's Meet the Press. Democrats believe they can win the P.R. argument on this one if the Senate Republicans stay united and keep the bill from getting to the floor. Some Republican political strategists are nervous about looking protective of Wall Street. We'll see.

*** Lindsey's reversal: Turning to energy and immigration, was anyone else a bit confused by GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham's decision to pull his support from the Kerry-Graham-Lieberman energy/climate change bill that was supposed to be introduced today -- because Democrats appear to be moving forward first on immigration? After all, back in a March interview, Graham criticized Obama for not leading on immigration. But now he's upset they might move ahead on the issue this year? And why did he wait to say this until after the Arizona bill became law, versus a couple of weeks ago when Harry Reid told Latinos in Nevada that he wanted to move on immigration? The pro-immigration reform group America's Voice is alleging that Graham wants to save his friend, John McCain, from having to vote on the immigration legislation. "With the primary scheduled for late August, Graham does not want to subject his friend to a 'tough vote' this summer," the group said. "So he decided to blame the president, slow walk the immigration bill, and gear up on climate change." Still, Graham is the one GOPer even remotely close to the White House on energy and immigration, so he's holding a lot of cards right now.

*** You know what they say about best laid plans…: Believe it or not, but neither political party really wanted to deal with immigration this year. The White House had been signaling early 2011, and that was a timetable that Republican leaders seemed to have preferred. And there are PLENTY of swing district and swing state Democrats that didn't want to take that same tough vote on immigration in a midterm year as well. But a few things happened. First was the less-publicized promise by Reid, which had election-year decision written all over it. Then, of course, was the real trigger -- the new Arizona law. While long term, there seems to be agreement that an immigration debate potentially polarizes Hispanics against the GOP helping Democrats in a presidential year, it's a mixed bag -- at best -- for both parties in a midterm.

*** Meet Jennifer Granholm: In our latest look at potential SCOTUS replacements, we profile term-limited Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm (D), who has served in that post since 2003. Before that, she was Michigan's attorney general, worked as a federal prosecutor, and clerked for 6th Circuit Court of Appeals Judge Damon Keith. Among her pros (from the White House's perspective): Like Janet Napolitano, whom we profiled on Friday, Granholm is a politician, and she'd bring a different perspective to the court; in fact, she'd be the first non-judge to be elevated to the court since 1972… She's pro-choice (but while governor to signed a bill giving pregnant women considering abortion the option of viewing ultrasound pictures)… And she appears to have good relations with Team Obama (due to her beauty-pageant past, good looks, and considerable debating skills, she played the part of Sarah Palin for Joe Biden's VP debate practice).

*** Granholm's pros and cons: Among her cons: Granholm has never been a judge or a law scholar, so there is no track record about her judicial philosophy… Given that Michigan has the highest unemployment rate in the nation (at 14.1%), critics might seize on that to evaluate her tenure as governor… And she endorsed Hillary Clinton over Barack Obama in the Democratic presidential primary season… Here's one other thing worth knowing about Granholm: If selected and confirmed, she would be the first Supreme Court justice to be born outside of the United States since Felix Frankfurter (who was born in Vienna, Austria)

*** Bank on it: We really didn't see either the Democratic or Republican parties make much noise over the failure of Alexi Giannoulias' family bank, which occurred on Friday. Why? Because both Alexi and the GOP have the same short-term strategy: Don't make a huge political deal over this now. The rationale: It could lead to candidate replacement talk. The quicker this goes away the better for both Alexi (who can hunker down) and the GOP (which can still run against the same flawed candidate). That said, the Giannoulias campaign is going up with its first TV ad, and it takes the bank's failure head on. "If a business like my father's, that he started 30 years ago, can fail, it's happening everywhere," Giannoulias says in the ad. "People want someone who's going to fight for them, someone who's been through tough times, someone who's seen, looked at those problems in the face and continues to move on and continues to fight and to struggle for people."

*** Super Senate Tuesday (debate wrap): The Arkansas Democrat-Gazette on Friday's Lincoln-Halter debate: "Halter said he thinks it was unseemly for Sen. Blanche Lincoln to accept contributions from Goldman Sachs, since it represents 'the very folks you're supposed to regulate.' Lincoln countered that she no longer is accepting contributions from Goldman Sachs and that she recently presented the 'toughest reform bill on Wall Street that anyone has seen.' Halter also said Friday he would have voted against the $700 billion bailout of the nation's banks that Lincoln supported in 2008." The AP covers the second Lincoln-Halter debate on Saturday. "Sen. Blanche Lincoln and Lt. Gov. Bill Halter exchanged some of their most heated charges on unions and negative campaigning." And here's the write-up on Friday's Grayson-vs.-Paul debate: Paul called Grayson a liar for telling voters he's pro-choice, and Grayson called Paul a hypocrite for campaigning against federal earmarks while taking money from people tied to companies that have received them."

Countdown to IN, NC, and OH primaries: 8 days
Countdown to NE and WV primaries: 15 days
Countdown to AR, KY, OR and PA primaries, and PA-12 special: 22 days
Countdown to HI special election: 26 days
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 190 days

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The AP on President Obama's eulogy at yesterday's memorial service for the 29 West Virginia coal miners killed: "They lived and they died pursuing the American Dream, working in dangerous conditions underground to help keep the lights on across the country, a somber President Barack Obama said today in a eulogy to the workers who died in the worst mine accident in a generation."

During his weekend in North Carolina, the president met with the Rev. Billy Graham. 
 
Today, Obama meets with the New York Yankees, the 2009 World Series champions, at the White House. Later, "the president will deliver remarks at a summit intended to identify ways to strengthen economic ties between the United States and Muslim communities around the world."
 
Sen. Chuck Schumer says he disagrees with President Obama's tactics on Israel.

"Rep. Tom Price (R-Ga.) told The Hill that the 'embarrassing and reckless' administration stances meant that President Barack Obama is 'increasing danger in the world, not decreasing it.'"

The New York Post: "Sections of court papers filed by scandal-scarred former Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich that were mistakenly made public show a deeper involvement by President Obama in picking his Senate successor and call into question the president's public statements on the case. According to passages in the papers filed Thursday by Blagojevich's lawyers -- which were blacked out under a judge's order but made visible by a computer glitch -- Obama, then president-elect, spoke directly to the disgraced governor on Dec. 1, 2008. But just one week later -- on the day Blagojevich was indicted -- Obama told reporters flatly, 'I had no contact with the governor or his office, and so we were not -- I was not aware of what was happening.'"

"Rarely have Senate Democrats been so calm about losing a vote. And that's what it looks like will happen in Monday's showdown with Republicans over financial regulatory reform," Roll Call reports. "With continued uncertainty about whether they can avoid a filibuster of the measure, Democrats said they are prepared to either excoriate Republicans for blocking needed Wall Street reforms or hold hands with them around a compromise bill heading into a two- to three-week floor debate."

Reuters: "Democrats in Congress plan to unveil tough proposals this week to counter a Supreme Court ruling that allows corporations to spend unlimited amounts on U.S. elections."

"Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) on Saturday sought to quell growing anger from environmentalists and liberal Democrats frustrated by his decision to focus on comprehensive immigration reform at the likely expense of climate legislation," Roll Call says. "In a statement released by his office Saturday, Reid not only backed away from hints that immigration could preempt the climate measure, but he also committed to putting the immigration reform bill through the Judiciary Committee before floor consideration, a process that could add weeks to the debate and significantly hurt a bipartisan compromise." 
 
Joe Lieberman is "encouraged" after talking with Majority Leader Harry Reid that climate change legislation will come to the floor this year. He pointed to needing to get Lindsey Graham on board. Graham doesn't want immigration to go first. 
 
Politico: "Backers of a bipartisan climate change bill are scrambling to revive efforts to pass legislation before the November midterms — even as Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid sticks by plans to slow-walk the measure behind immigration reform. Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham's decision to pull out of the high-stakes energy negotiations Saturday dealt a major blow to prospects that the once-in-a-generation legislation will be passed before the midterms. But as tempers cooled Sunday, the White House and Senate Democrats who back the effort worked behind the scenes to defuse tensions between the South Carolina Republican and Reid (D-Nev.) over the bill's timing, according to people close to the talks."

On immigration, Chuck Schumer is targeting Republicans Scott Brown, Lisa Murkowski, George LeMieux, Dick Lugar, and Judd Gregg -- "all of whom President Barack Obama reached out to last week on the issue," Roll Call reports. 
 
Roll Call writes, ""Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) acknowledged Friday he has been subpoenaed in the federal trial of former Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D)."

"The publisher of former President George W. Bush's book 'Decision Points' on Sunday set a Nov. 9 release date, unveiled its cover design and announced new details about it," the AP says. "Bush has said he is not writing a traditional memoir but an account of key decisions in his life. The cover features a photo of then-President Bush alone with his thoughts, standing in the Rose Garden Colonnade, wearing a dark suit and holding a briefing book, his head turned slightly from the camera. According to Crown Publishers, 'Decision Points' will offer "gripping, never-before-heard detail" on such historic events as the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks and the 2000 presidential election along with Bush's decision to quit drinking, his relationship with his family and other personal details."

The Sunday New York Times said that "nearly a dozen well-established House Democrats … are bracing for something they rarely face: serious competition," including Reps. David Obey (WI), Earl Pomeroy (ND), John Spratt (SC), and Ike Skelton (MO). "Democratic Congressional officials -- well aware that a president's party typically loses seats in midterm elections -- have long been preparing for a tough year. But that [Rep. David] Obey here in Wisconsin and other veteran lawmakers like Representative Earl Pomeroy of North Dakota suddenly find themselves in a fight reflects an increasingly sour mood toward the Democratic Party and incumbents."

The Washington Post: "President Obama will declare his stake in the November midterm elections for the first time on Monday as his Democratic Party announces an ambitious strategy to appeal to independent voters in its quest to maintain control of Congress. Obama plans to issue a call-to-action video message to his supporters on Monday, the first in a series of personal efforts designed to rekindle the grass-roots magic that propelled him to the presidency in service to his party's congressional and gubernatorial candidates, Democratic officials said."

ARIZONA: On the state's new immigration law… Sen. John McCain, "who endorsed the tough new Arizona law earlier this week, defended it as necessary because of the federal government's inability to secure the border. 'If the president doesn't like what the Arizona Legislature and governor may be doing, then I call on the president to immediately call for the dispatch of 3,000 National Guard troops to our border and mandate that 3,000 additional Border Patrol [officers] be sent to our border as well,' McCain said at a news conference Friday," The Hill reports.

ARKANSAS: "U.S. Sen. Blanche Lincoln and Lt. Gov. Bill Halter said they wanted to tone down an increasingly bitter fight for the Democratic Senate nomination in Arkansas as they faced off in their first debate Friday night… But the simultaneous pleas to stop the negative tone of the race didn't stop Halter and Lincoln from criticizing each other over financial regulation, health care and unions," Arkansas Business writes. 
 
ILLINOIS: Broadway Bank, owned by the family of Democratic Senate candidate Alexi Giannoulias, "was among seven Illinois banks whose failure was announced on Friday," Reuters reports. "In comments late Friday, Giannoulias called the bank's closing 'an incredibly sad and heartbreaking day for me and my family,' adding when he left the bank in 2006 to become state treasurer 'it was one of the best-performing in Illinois.'"

KENTUCKY: "During a sold-out debate sponsored by the Northern Kentucky Chamber of Commerce, [Republican Senate candidate Rand] Paul called [opponent Trey] Grayson a liar for telling voters he's pro-choice, and Grayson called Paul a hypocrite for campaigning against federal earmarks while taking money from people tied to companies that have received them."

NEW YORK: "Former Gov. Eliot Spitzer portrayed Andrew M. Cuomo as a man whose decisions have often been driven by political considerations and whose worldview has largely been shaped by the culture of Albany," the New York Times reports after an interview with Spitzer. "His skepticism came through about whether the attorney general, if elected governor, will take unpopular positions and confront entrenched interests." 
 
"Outraged Democrats rebuked Eliot Spitzer yesterday, accusing the disgraced former governor of settling scores with a bitter attack on Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, the party's all-but-certain gubernatorial nominee. Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver (D-Manhattan) said Spitzer's blunt assessment of Cuomo as a politically driven Albany insider appeared 'to be an attempt at payback' for Cuomo's role in the ex-governor's spectacular downfall."

UTAH: The AP profiles vulnerable Sen. Bob Bennett (R). "Republican Sen. Bob Bennett -- darling of the National Rifle Association and grandson of a Mormon Church president -- suddenly may not be conservative enough for ultraconservative Utah." And circle this date: May 8th. That's the state party convention, and Bennett needs "to win at least 40 percent of the 3,500 delegates at the state GOP's convention May 8." More: "His struggle to win a fourth six-year term underscores two forces driving the GOP's fortunes in 2010 as the party out of power seeks more seats in Congress: Incumbency isn't a problem just for Democrats, and ideological purity is an issue of increasing importance for many Republican voters."

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has claimed that the financial reform bill would lead to further bailouts.

"If you look at it carefully," he said, "it will lead to endless taxpayer bailouts of Wall Street banks."

But his claim, which has been denounced as false by independent fact checkers, is based on the existence of a $50 billion fund in the legislation. That fund would be used if large banks get in trouble again.

Sounds like a bailout, right?

Not true. Why?

One, this fund would be used to liquidate a company -- to put them out of business -- not to save them.

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Two, most importantly, none of the money would be from taxpayers. Those too-big-to-fail banks would pay fees to the federal government, specifically for the program.

President Obama criticized Republicans for this at his speech in New York.

"What's not legitimate," he said, "is to suggest that somehow the legislation being proposed is going to encourage future taxpayer bailouts."

OK, fair enough. But then he said this,

"[A] vote for reform is a vote to put a stop to taxpayer-funded bailouts," Obama said. "That's the truth. End of story."

Well, that's not exactly the end of the story. There's no guarantee that the government wouldn't again have to bailout one of these large banks in the future. If they say they are about to go under and, without government support, the economy will collapse, it would be very difficult for whoever is president not to take action.

Most experts agree that without breaking up those very large banks, and limiting the number of things they can have their hands in, it's almost impossible to end "too big to fail."

And no one's moving forward with THAT in Congress.

And here's the rest of your look ahead at the week ahead in politics.

We find out if Charlie Crist stays in the race, becomes an independent, or drops out, Obama to West Virginia miners memorial, Obama to Iowa, Illinois, Missouri, a vote on financial reform Monday, a bailout and "too big to fail" FACT CHECK. Plus, we bailout the airline industry by putting out that pesky volcano.

Click here for the full video.

From NBC's Mark Murray
Breaking News: Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer (R) has signed the state legislation into law that, among other things, requires local law enforcement officials to force those suspected of being illegal immigrants to prove their citizenship or legal status.

Critics say the legislation amounts to racial profiling. But Brewer countered, "I will not tolerate racial discrimination or racial profiling in Arizona."

Brewer said she signed the legislation into law due to "decades of federal inaction" that have created a "dangerous and unacceptable" situation in the state.

From NBC's Mark Murray
NBCChicago's Ward Room has video of Chicago Mayor Richard Daley saying he has no problems with White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel saying that he wants to be mayor of Chicago one day.

"No, he's not stepping on my toes," Daley said. "He's a good friend of mine. I think it was something that he should be proud of, that someday he would like to be mayor. I didn't give him any advice. I don't give people advice. I don't advise people. I'm not their adviser. But there's nothing wrong with people having a commitment to public service."

From NBC's Mark Murray
Politico's Martin takes a look at the man who is caught in the middle of the "Will Charlie Crist run as an indie?" story: Sen. George LeMieux (R).

LeMieux is Crist's former top adviser, and he was appointed by Crist to fill out the remainder of Sen. Mel Martinez's term.

Martin reports, citing a source, that LeMieux will end up endorsing Marco Rubio if Crist runs as an independent.

From the article:

LeMieux's dilemma — to choose between his political mentor and his own electoral ambition — couldn't come at a worse time. At a moment when some of his fellow appointed senators attract attention mostly for purposes of derision, the mild-mannered, 40-year-old Florida native has won plaudits from a range of his colleagues — some of whom say they'd like him to return to the Senate.

His appointment last summer raised eyebrows in Tallahassee and Washington — LeMieux had never previously served in office and his chief credential was his relationship with the man who tapped him — but he's already dispelled the notion that he would be a mere seat warmer until Crist got to town.