The AP on Florida Gov. Charlie Crist's impending decision on whether to stay in the U.S. Senate race as a Republican or independent – or if he just drops his bid completely: "The very thing that once made Gov. Charlie Crist the clear Republican choice to run for U.S. Senate is also what will perhaps make it inevitable that he will eventually buck the party to run as an independent: his embrace -- literally and figuratively -- of bipartisanship." The AP: "[T]hree confidants have said he's already decided to abandon his long-shot GOP primary bid and run as an independent." 

The St. Pete Times: "Gov. Charlie Crist, a pariah in the Republican Party that has been vital to his success, will launch a risky political career today as a "people's candidate" for the U.S. Senate with no party affiliation… It will be an extraordinary event in Florida's colorful political history, as a one-term governor who blew a 30-point lead in the Republican Senate primary is forced to run an unconventional race." 

"It's a long fall for Crist and the Republican leaders, who were initially enthusiastic about his Senate run," The Hill notes. 

The Orlando Sentinel: "Barring an eleventh-hour change of heart, Gov. Charlie Crist will turn Florida's U.S. Senate race on its head today by formally announcing he will run as an independent and leave the party that made him one of the most recognizable politicians in the state… He will begin campaigning almost immediately, having already scheduled a weekend fundraiser in South Florida, the sources said." 

Stu Rothenberg says that while there will be a saturation of media coverage on Crist's switch, there may be less political implications than meets the eye.

The Wall Street Journal writes, "Recent Supreme Court nominees have come before the Senate with such slim records on abortion that their views were anybody's guess. Not so with Diane Wood, a Chicago federal appellate judge who is on the White House's short list of candidates for the latest high-court vacancy. Judge Wood has expressed approval for the philosophy behind the Roe v. Wade decision establishing a woman's right to abortion, which was written by her former boss, Justice Harry Blackmun."

ARKANSAS: Blanche Lincoln releases a new ad claiming opponent Bill Halter supports raising Social Security taxes and cutting benefits, which the Halter camp called a "flat lie," writes the Arkansas blog Tolbert Report.

ILLINOIS: Alexi Giannoulias got his hug from Obama, NBCChicago reports.

NEVADA: The Hill: "Nevada Senate candidate Sue Lowden has seen her momentum slow in recent weeks as she has struggled to defend her claim that a bartering system -- such as paying doctors with chickens -- can lower the cost of healthcare." She said, "Before we all started having healthcare, in the olden days, our grandparents, they would bring a chicken to the doctor. I'm not backing down from that system." And: "The quote has left Washington-based Republican strategists scratching their heads."

NORTH CAROLINA: "The two leading Democratic candidates in the North Carolina Senate race are entering the final weekend before the primary with more of a whimper than a roar, while party operatives are coming to terms with the prospect that a resource-draining runoff appears likely," Roll Call reports.

From NBC's Ken Strickland
Without having to have a vote, the full Senate agreed to move to start debate on the financial regulatory reform bill. The chamber did it through a procedure called "unanimous consent" -- meaning that all senators agreed to start the debate.

So after three votes where every single Republican voted against starting debate, every Republican agreed to start debate after saying they got some concessions from Democrats.

From NBC's Jenna Pfeffer and Ali Weinberg
A funny thing happened at today's fiscal/deficit-reduction forum.

During an interview with CBS' Bob Schieffer, former President Bill Clinton suggested that he didn't believe investment bankers at Goldman Sachs deserved the heaping condemnation they've received from Congress and the public for profiting from allegedly recommending and selling securities that were expected to fail.

"I think they're really mad about the SEC deal," Clinton said, referring to the Securities and Exchange Committee's investigation into trades made by Goldman upon the recommendation of hedge fund manager John Paulson, who bet that the derivatives would fail by buying insurance against the investments of third parties whom Goldman assured were buying strong financial products.

"I think they think the timing was suspect and they don't believe they violated the law," he continued, adding that he was "not sure" whether the timing between the SEC investigation and Congress' attempt to pass financial regulatory reform legislation meant the two bodies conspired to frame Goldman Sachs and use them as a scapegoat for the excesses of the financial industry.

"I've read a lot of material on this and I'm not sure they violated the law by not telling people that John Paulson suggested the securities that would be in the CDO (collateralized debt obligation) because of the ability of people on the other side to get information," Clinton said, suggesting that the burden rests with investors to gain information about the kind of financial product they were investing in.

From NBC's Athena Jones
QUINCY, IL -- At his last stop on a two-day, three-state tour of the Midwest, President Obama today said that recklessness on Wall Street threatened the dreams and prospects of ordinary Americans. And he applauded the apparent agreement made in the Senate to move financial overhaul legislation to the floor.

After a day spent touring a biofuels plant and stopping by a diner and farm in Missouri, the president gave a wide-ranging speech at a civic center here just blocks from the banks of the Mississippi River -- in a town he visited during the 2008 campaign to help fill sandbags to guard against floods.

Much as he has done throughout the trip, Obama defended steps -- some of them unpopular -- that his administration had taken to get the economy back on track, stressing the health-care overhaul, tax relief for working families and businesses, extending unemployment benefits, and providing much-needed aid to states.

But he had a special message for Wall Street banks he said had used other people's money to gamble on risky investments.

"This crisis we went through, it wasn't part of the normal economic cycle," Obama said, before going on the describe actions on Wall Street that led the economy to the brink of collapse. "They were making bets on, you know, what was gonna happen in the housing market."

"They would create these derivatives and all these instruments that nobody understood," he continued. "But it was basically operating like a big casino, and it was producing big profits and big bonuses for them. But it was all built on shaky economics, and some of these subprime loans that had been given out -- and because we did not have commonsense rules in place -- those irresponsible practices came awfully close to bringing down our entire economy and millions of dreams along with it."

He told the audience he had been calling for better rules on Wall Street since 2007, and he hailed the progress made on the financial regulatory bill in the Senate today, after Republicans -- who voted three times to block debate -- reversed course.

"I'm very pleased that after a few days of delay, it appears an agreement may be in hand to allow this debate to move forward on the Senate floor on this critical issue. And I want to work with anyone, Republican or Democrat, who wants to pursue reforms in good faith."

Obama said the bill would bring derivatives trading "out of the dark alleys into the light of day," and would include strong consumer protections.

"What I don't want is a deal made that is written by the financial industry lobbyists," he said. "I want a bill that's written for you, for the American people."

The president spoke before a friendly crowd that had waited hours to see him. Before the event, about 50 protesters -- many of them self-proclaimed Tea Partiers -- stood outside, some holding the yellow "Don't Tread on Me" flag with the coiled snake and signs railing against "big government."

From NBC's Ali Weinberg
A forum featuring some appointees to President Obama's bipartisan deficit-reducing commission resulted in two major points of  consensus: current spending levels will eventually lead to another fiscal crisis, and ideological differences, combined with lack of political will, may prevent the commission from producing concrete recommendations on how to reduce the nation's record deficit.

Kicking off the half-day Peter G. Peterson Foundation fiscal summit, the co-chairs of the Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform, Erskine Bowles, a Democrat, and Alan Simpson, a former Republican senator, said that while political differences may bar the commission from hammering out individual suggestions, its baseline goal should be to raise awareness of an impending crisis with a public still reeling from the effects of the 2008 implosion. 

"Progress is educating the American people and getting a push on elected officials to face up to these problems," Bowles said. "We have to convince the American people that this problem is real," he added.

Simpson reiterated President Obama's assertion that everything is on the table when it comes to deficit-reduction strategies, even a concept like the value added tax, political kryptonite to Republicans.

"VAT tax, what the hell," Simpson said, explaining that the measure, which adds market value to a product at each stage of its manufacture, would have to be accompanied by some reductions to income taxes to ease the burden on consumers faced with a tarrif on once-untaxed items.  "It's not like they're slapping it on top of the income tax," he added.

Bowles' and Simpson's predictions of partisan gridlock later played themselves out during a panel discussion featuring widely divergent viewpoints on responsible deficit-reduction strategies.

Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI), also on the debt commission, warned that unsustainable levels of Social Security and Medicare payouts, compounded by high levels of spending on government programs, would "sink" the American economy.

"There is a huge, massive structural problem," Ryan said. "Excessive spending and more borrowing is driving the deficits." He added that President Obama's tax increases on high-income individuals and businesses making over $250,000 a year would stifle overall economic growth.

"The Fed's going to be raising interest rates and tightening up the money supply," he warned.

More liberal members of the panel, however, advocated continued government spending policies geared towards an incremental goal of job creation before turning toward long-term systemic reforms.

"The first step towards deficit reduction is generating jobs, which may drive the deficit in the short term," Economic Policy Institute president Lawrence Mishel said. He added that the Social Security shortfall is "the least of our problems."

Alice Rivlin, also on the debt commission and the first director of the Congressional Budget Office, struck a conciliatory tone, saying that while there was "too much talk about Social Security," raising the retirement age in the future would prove that Washington is "grown up enough to do something about" the program, which most economists agree is dangerously close to reaching insolvency. 

Bob Greenstein, the founder and executive director of the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, had a recommendation for members of both parties on the debt commission: don't aim for major policy changes.

"It's difficult to get 14 of 18 members to agree," he said. "I would actually recommend not that we give up, but that we don't set expectations too high because one thing we don't need is another storyline of another failure," he added.

During the summit's conclusion, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan also advised the commission to keep the president and Congressional leaders of informed of its progress, and not attempt to be immune to political sensitivities.

"There is no such thing as an independent commission that doesn't link itself up in real time to the political mechanism," Greenspan said.

"I would very much suggest to these veteran co-heads, who know more about this issue than I could ever know, that they make certain as they go forward that the President's on board and senior people in the Republican congress are shaking their heads in agreement," Greenspan said. "If that does not happen, the commission will write a very interesting report and everyone may read it, and it goes on the shelf for posterity."

From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell
Maine Republican Sen. Susan Collins tells NBC News she will drop her opposition and vote to let financial regulatory reform move forward. Collins' vote is not enough alone to break the impasse, but it's an important signal and start.

The GOP meeting is about to begin, so members can learn details of the agreement worked out by Sens. Dodd and Shelby. 

We do not know when the vote will be held or how other Republicans will vote. Democratic Sen. Ben Nelson had been a no as well.

If the motion passes, the financial reform bill jumps to the next phase for floor debate and amendments.

From NBC's Ken Strickland and Mark Murray
We've gone from "All Night Long" to "Let's Make a Deal."

[Youtube:qcYf64aKDJo]

It appears the pieces are in place to end the standoff on the Senate financial reform bill -- in place, but not completely done. 

As Senate Minority Mitch McConnell suggested in a statement, Democratic Sen. Chris Dodd and Republican Sen. Richard Shelby have reached a deal on the "too big to fail" component of the bill. The details are still unclear, but it more than likely pertains to the $50 billion fund to wind down failing firms. Shelby didn't get everything he wanted for sure, but he got something. The consumer protection agency is still a big area on contention.

The next thing is for Shelby is to present his deal to the entire Senate GOP caucus. That will happen in a closed-door meeting at 4:30 pm in the Capitol. In that meeting, Republicans will then decide if they want to vote to allow the debate to begin on the bill. They've blocked it three times so far.

A GOP source tells NBC News that "it's probably enough" to end the filibuster and start debate on the bill. If that's the case, there will still be at least of few days of debate and voting on amendments on bill before final passage.

And then there's the House. It passed a completely difference version of the bill in December. And that means one of two things could happen.

First and the easiest, the House could take up and pass the Senate bill. Or the House and Senate would "conference" or merge the bills, followed by each chamber voting again to pass that new merged bill.

From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell, Michelle Perry, and Mark Murray
... because we're about to go "all night long" in the U.S. Senate on financial reform.

[Youtube:QiLziusKW4s]

As Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) told Andrea Mitchell on MSNBC, the Democratic leadership is prepared to require senators remain here through the night. They can use procedures to demand the presence of all senators in what's known as a "live quorum call." If senators do not appear, the Senate Majority Leader can ask the Sergeant at Arms to physically compel members to be present.

Democrats have signed up in shifts to speak on financial regulatory reform through the wee hours. Republican aides say they have not scheduled their line-up of speakers just yet, but would be prepared to get their members ready to talk about their preferred issues for hours.

Reid can call for another vote, but that's not required to keep the lights on. This may have zero substance, but it can provide political theater for Democrats to make their point that Republicans are blocking progress.

From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell
At 12:20 pm ET, we expect the third vote to try to bring the financial reform legislation to the Senate floor.

*** UPDATE *** Per NBC's Ken Strickland, the vote failed for the third-straight time.

This time, it was 56-42. Ben Nelson once again voted with the Republicans.

From NBC's Mark Murray
As a colleague just remarked to me, this doesn't sound like someone who's dropping out of his Senate contest.

The Charlie Crist campaign has released this advisory:

MEDIA ADVISORY: Governor Crist To Hold Senate Qualifying Event
TALLAHASSEE – The Charlie Crist for U.S. Senate campaign today announced that Gov. Crist will be holding a candidate qualifying event for the U.S. Senate tomorrow, April 29th at 5:00 pm at Straub Park in downtown St. Petersburg, FL. The event is open to the public and press.

Governor Crist Senate Qualifying Event
Thursday, April 29th at 5:00 pm
Straub Park
Beach Drive (Between First and Fifth Avenues; north of the Museum of Fine Arts)
St. Petersburg, FL 33701

From NBC's Mark Murray
Republicans are arguing that Democrats' appeal to young and minority voters is an effort to "play the race card."

On Monday, President Obama released an video to supporters, in which he said (among other things): "It will be up to each of you to make sure that the young people, African Americans, Latinos, and women, who powered our victory in 2008 stand together once again."

And today, the Wall Street Journal (subscription required) reports that DNC Chairman Tim Kaine today is expected to lay out a plan "to energize its base and appeal to such distinct groups as African-Americans, Latinos and younger voters, among others."

Said National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Ken Spain in an email to reporters: "DNC Chairman Tim Kaine gave voters a sneak peak at their 2010 strategy: Play the race card from the bottom of the deck. After promising to transcend the political debate in this country, President Obama and his hand-picked party boss plan to shamelessly engage in race-baiting."

Added Republican National Committee spokesman Doug Heye: "Only days after our post-racial president made an appeal based on class warfare and race, Gov. Kaine is doing the same thing. It tells you how bad things are for them. Desperate times call for desperate measures, only now it's on an advanced timetable."

Of course, this RNC hit comes just days after Chairman Michael Steele was courting African-American voters and denouncing the GOP's past so-called "Southern Strategy" that alienated minority voters.

DNC spokesman Brad Woodhouse fires back: "Working to turn out voters who were new to the process in 2008 -- the majority of which as a matter of fact were people of color and young people -- is no more an appeal to race than Michael Steele saying he's going to bring a 'hip hop' makeover to the Republican Party or an 'urban' feel to the GOP."

*** UPDATE *** The NRCC's Ken Spain clarifies to First Read that he was referring to the Wall Street Journal's assertion that "Democratic Party leaders are accusing opponents of trying to delegitimize President Barack Obama and of preparing to suppress the votes of minority and poor voters in the November election."

Says Spain: "Gov. Kaine's accusations regarding a secret Republican plot to 'suppress' minority votes are outrageous and absurd. Republicans hope to energize and appeal to minority voters on the issues, not by fear-mongering and race-baiting. Voters deserve a real debate on the issues, particularly when it comes to the issue of jobs, including the unacceptably high unemployment rate in the African-American and Hispanic communities under President Obama and his Democrat-led Congress."

Obama's picture-perfect day in Iowa… Today, will we see one Senate candidate (Alexi) hug the president as tightly as possibly, with the other one (Carnahan) giving him the buddy pat?... Is Charlie Crist (potentially) leaving the GOP? Or is the GOP leaving Charlie Crist?... Left and right blast Obama's deficit-reduction commission… Obama, Jeb Bush, and Rubio all speak out against AZ's immigration law… First Read profiles SCOTUS possibility Sidney Thomas… Today's the one-year anniversary of Arlen Specter switching parties… And in a new Q-poll, Fisher leads Brunner in OH by 17 points.

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** Picture perfect? The Obama White House probably couldn't have asked for a better picture yesterday. On a day in DC when members of Congress were raising a sh&%-storm on Goldman Sachs and when senators were unable -- once again -- to bring the financial reform legislation to the floor, there was President Obama in the swing state of Iowa meeting with factory workers, eating rhubarb pie, posing with a 107-year-old woman, and even kissing a few babies. There also was Obama railing against how Washington works. ("It's one thing to oppose [financial] reform, but to oppose even talking about reform in front of the American people? That's not right.") Despite the Democrats' political troubles this midterm season, as well as the president's pedestrian poll numbers, it's often easy to forget that Obama is still the most popular Washington politician in the country. And he's also the one who has the ability to portray himself as being above the fray, especially when he leaves DC.

*** Obama today: But he isn't going to escape politics today… On the second day of his two-day swing through the Midwest, Obama gives a speech on the economy at 2:00 pm ET in Macon, MO (where Robin Carnahan will appear), and then he will urge passage of Wall Street reform at a 5:00 pm speech in Quincy, IL (where Alexi Giannoulias will appear). Think one Senate candidate (Giannoulias) will want to hug Obama as tightly as possible, while the other one (Carnahan) might want to give him just the buddy pat?

*** Crist is leaning to shoot over the trees: Several days ago, we reported that Charlie Crist was getting advice from GOP operative Mitch Bainwol. In an interview with First Read, Bainwol gives a golfing metaphor to describe the advice he's currently giving Crist: Instead of trying the risky play to shoot over the trees to get to the hole (i.e., make an indie bid), the smarter play is to go around the tree, even if that means an extra stroke or two (i.e., drop out of the race). But right now, per Bainwol, Crist appears to be leaning to shoot over the trees.

*** Who abandoned whom? As Crist mulls an independent bid -- and on the one-year anniversary of Arlen Specter switching parties -- this question seems appropriate to ask: Is Crist (potentially) leaving the Republican Party? Or is the Republican Party leaving him? How he answers that question will probably determine what he decides to do on Thursday, when he's supposed to make up his mind. On the one hand, Crist's the one who's thinking of running as an indie, creating a path for a Dem victory in Florida; he backed Obama's economic stimulus when almost no other Republican did; and he recently vetoed that education bill that was very popular among Florida Republicans. On the other hand, this is the same Charlie Crist who just two years ago was seen as the GOP's rising star (potential McCain VP, 2012 presidential possibility; the guy who essentially delivered the GOP nomination to McCain); the GOP once had a history of leaders (Eisenhower, Bush 41, McCain of '01-'06) who didn't always put party first; and there's a legitimate argument to make whether Reagan (who raised taxes and signed amnesty for illegal immigrants into law) would be considered a RINO today.

*** Crist's problems go beyond ideology: That said, Crist's problems have gone well beyond ideology. One complaint we've heard from Republicans is that -- outside of fundraising -- he did little in 2009 to prepare himself against a potentially tough race against Marco Rubio. "He took this race for granted for way too long," one GOP strategist tells First Read. (What if he had hit Rubio on the credit card charges, say, last fall?) Crist also didn't size up the changing political environment inside the GOP the way that McCain, for example, has done in Arizona. And as the St. Pete Times noted in a piece over the weekend, critics have viewed Crist as someone who's always looking at the next job. "He got elected education commissioner and spent the entire time running for attorney general," a former state GOP chairman told the paper. "He got to be attorney general and spent the entire time running for governor. When he got to be governor, he spent the first two years running for vice president and the last two running for the United States Senate."

*** No Country for Immature Men: But in American politics today, ideology and party loyalty appear to trump everything else. For example, just look at the partisan attacks aimed at Obama's deficit-reduction commission. As we noted yesterday, Grover Norquist's anti-tax group Americans for Tax Reform questioned commission co-chair Alan Simpson's (R) GOP and tax-cutting credentials. And also yesterday, liberals criticized both Simpson and the other co-chair, Erskine Bowles (D), for participating today in budget hawk Pete Peterson's summit in DC. Yet here's the truth that most people, even some of the partisans, know about reducing the deficit: It will probably take a combination of BOTH budget cuts and tax hikes or new taxes. But the way the system works in Washington tries to dissuade the adults from even being able to have a rational conversation. 

*** Kaine's contrast: At his remarks this afternoon at the Christian Science Monitor's lunch, DNC Chairman Tim Kaine is expected to draw clear lines between the Democratic and Republican parties. Per an excerpt of his remarks: "At a time when many Americans doubted the capacity of government to tackle and solve big problems, we have shown that we are the Results Party. We act decisively to solve problems that confront Americans in their homes, businesses, schools and communities. And, most of what we have done has been in the face of Republican obstruction trying to protect a special interest status quo that has not worked for the American people. So, voters will have a clear choice." More Kaine: "We've seen just how extreme and divisive the Republican Party has become. The level of extreme rhetoric emanating from Party leaders … is creating internal civil war within the GOP and increasingly striking a negative chord with American voters who are fundamentally optimistic about the nation and our need to work together in a tough time."

*** Obama, Rubio, and Jeb on Arizona's law: Turning to the thorny issue of immigration, President Obama used his sharpest language yesterday to denounce Arizona's new anti-immigration law. "You can imagine if you are an Hispanic American in Arizona -- you're great grandparents may have been there before Arizona was a state -- but now suddenly if you don't have your papers and if you took your kid for ice cream, you're going to be harassed. That's not right way to go." Yesterday, we also saw conservative heroes Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush criticize the Arizona law. But wake us when a major Republican not from a state with a large Latino population comes out against the law. Then again, both Bush and Rubio might give them cover to do so. And the line of "the frustration is understandable, but this law goes too far" might become a comfortable place for some GOPers with true national ambitions to stay.

*** Just askin': With Obama overnighting in Des Moines last night, you think any prospective SCOTUS possibilities -- say a federal judge or two from nearby Chicago or Montana -- might have had an interview with the president?

*** Meet Sidney Thomas: Speaking of Montana… In the latest of our profiles of potential SCOTUS picks, we take a look today at 9th Circuit Judge Sidney Thomas. Before being appointed by Bill Clinton to that court in 1995, Thomas served as a private-practice attorney in Billings, MT. According to reports, Senate Finance Chairman Max Baucus (D-MT.) has been championing Thomas' candidacy to the Supreme Court. Among his pros (from the White House's perspective): Would bring educational diversity to the court, becoming the only current justice who doesn't have a degree from an Ivy League school (his degrees: B.A., Montana State Univ., J.D., University of Montana)… Would also bring geographical diversity as its only current member who has western roots (Kennedy and Breyer hail from California, while all other justices hail east of the Mississippi River)… Has won praise for his easygoing manner…. Among his cons: If he's selected, most of the political world who hasn't read this write-up will ask: Who is Sidney Thomas?

*** Super Senate Tuesday: In Pennsylvania's Democratic Senate primary, Joe Sestak is delivering a speech at 6:30 pm ET in DC to mark Arlen Specter's one-year anniversary of switching parties… And Michael J. Fox has cut a TV ad in support of Specter. *** NOTE *** We mistakenly included a news clip that was a year old, and have since taken it out.  

*** More midterm news: In Illinois, the Cook Political Report has moved the Senate contest from "Toss-up" to "Lean Republican."… In North Carolina, Dem Senate candidate Elaine Marshall has released her first TV ad… In Ohio's Democratic Senate primary, Lee Fisher has opened up a 17-point lead (41%-24%) over Jennifer Brunner, according to a Quinnipiac poll of likely primary voters. 

Countdown to IN, NC, and OH primaries: 6 days
Countdown to NE and WV primaries: 13 days
Countdown to AR, KY, OR and PA primaries, and PA-12 special: 20 days
Countdown to HI special election: 24 days
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 188 days

Click here to sign up for First Read emails.
Text FIRST to 622639, to sign up for First Read alerts to your mobile phone.
Check us out on Facebook and also on Twitter. 

The New York Daily News headline: "Senate Republicans block Wall Street financial reform for second straight day."

Roll Call: "Senate Democrats think they have figured out how to go on offense against a united GOP intent on watering down and frustrating their agenda: Make them vote. Again, and again, and again, if need be. In what could be a template for the rest of the year, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) has taken off the gloves and forced Republicans into a corner on financial reform, putting the onus on them to explain to the public why they are voting repeatedly to block debate on the bill."

"Senate Republicans, attacked for twice blocking legislation to rein in Wall Street, floated a partial alternative proposal yesterday and said it could lead to a compromise on an issue that commands strong public support," the AP writes. "The 20-page outline includes provisions that would let struggling financial giants fail before assessing costs for their liquidation instead of creating a prepaid resolution fund. It would also impose regulation on many but not all trades of derivatives; seek a more limited council to ensure consumer protections, rather than creating an agency; and overhaul regulations on mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, an issue Democrats want to take up in separate legislation."

Turning to yesterday's Senate hearing on Goldman Sachs…. "Even before the first question was leveled inside the Senate chamber, yesterday was going to be uncomfortable for Goldman Sachs. But then the questions kept coming -- and coming and coming," the Boston Globe writes. "Into the evening, Goldman Sachs executives met with confrontation and blunt questioning as senators from both parties challenged them over their aggressive marketing of mortgage investments at a time when the housing market was already starting to falter. In an atmosphere charged by public animosity toward Wall Street, the senators compared the bankers to bookies, and asked why Goldman had sold investments that its own sales team had disparaged with a vulgarity."

Congress-watcher Norm Ornstein writes, "The deterioration of the center in American politics is one of the most distressing signs of dysfunction in our political system." And "it is even more apparent outside Washington, especially in the electoral process." His solution is "one simple, powerful reform could transform our politics, our dialogue and even our policy outcomes" -- mandatory attendance at the polls. "Australia, where I have spent some time and know many top leaders from both major parties, provides the best example. Down Under, voters who do not show up at the polls are subject to a modest fine, the equivalent of about $15, or less than a parking ticket. That modest nudge has over time boosted Aussie turnout to more than 95 percent. The fine matters; it has also led to an ethos that it is an obligation for citizens to vote."

"President Obama strongly criticized Senate Republicans on Tuesday for blocking proposed legislation to tighten regulation of the financial system, vowing that he would 'not let this effort fall victim to industry lobbyists who want to kill it,'" the New York Times reports. "Mr. Obama, returning to the scene of one of his greatest political triumphs, the 2008 presidential caucuses, struck a populist theme at a town-hall-style meeting."

"'It's one thing to oppose reform, but to oppose even talking about reform in front of the American people?" Mr. Obama said to cheers from the audience. 'That's not right.'"

"An increase in terrorist attacks in Pakistan and Afghanistan triggered a spike in the number of civilians killed or wounded there last year, pushing South Asia past the Middle East as the top terror region in the world, according to figures compiled by a U.S. intelligence agency," the AP says. 
 
More AP: "The Obama administration said yesterday it will provide some but not all the materials a Senate committee wants on last year's Fort Hood shooting rampage, setting up a potential legal showdown with Congress."

If Darrell Issa is going after the RNC, you know the perception of the RNC is that bad… In response to a mailing by the Republican National Committee with the word "census" on it -- again -- Republican Rep. Darrell Issa "introduced a bill Tuesday to prevent deceptive uses of the word 'census' on non-federal direct mail," Roll Call writes. In Issa's statement, he says, "The RNC's mailings plainly violate the spirit and intent of the law. Deceptive mailings must not be allowed to interfere with the constitutionally mandated Census. This legislation deserves bipartisan support, and I am working with Congressional Democrats to advance this bill as expeditiously as possible." 
 
"Laura Bush has finally opened up publicly about the mysterious car accident she had when she was 17, a crash that claimed the life of a high school friend on a dark country road in Midland, Tex," the New York Times writes of a new book out by the former first lady. And: "On several occasions in the book, Ms. Bush admonishes her husband's political adversaries for 'calling him names,' and she pointedly rebuts criticism of some of his key decisions. She suggested that his highly criticized fly-over of New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina was in the best interests of the victims and aid workers on the ground."
 
And how about this? "Ms. Bush also suggests, apparently for the first time, that she, Mr. Bush, and several members of their staff may have been poisoned during a visit to Germany for a G8 Summit. They all became mysteriously sick, and the president was bedridden for part of the trip. The Secret Service investigated the possibility they were poisoned, she writes, but doctors could only conclude that they all contracted a virus."

"Members of Congress face the most anti-incumbent electorate since 1994, with less than a third of all voters saying they are inclined to support their representatives in November, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. Dissatisfaction is widespread, crossing party lines, ideologies and virtually all groups of voters. Less than a quarter of independents and just three in 10 Republicans say they're leaning toward backing an incumbent this fall. Even among Democrats, who control the House, the Senate and the White House, opinion is evenly divided on the question."

More: "Still, for President Obama and his party, there are some positive signs in the poll. The public trusts Democrats more than Republicans to handle the major problems facing the country by a double-digit margin, giving Democrats a bigger lead than they held two months ago, when Congress was engaged in the long endgame over divisive health-care legislation. A majority continues to see Obama as 'just about right' ideologically, despite repeated GOP efforts to define the president as outside the mainstream."

"DNC Chairman Tim Kaine is laying out his party's strategy for the fall elections in an appearance at the Christian Science Monitor lunch today," Politico reports. "In the longest section of his remarks, Kaine will say Democrats plan to make the campaign not a simple referendum on the president's policies, but 'a clear choice between continued progress and a return to the failed policies that created the biggest period of economic decline since the Great Depression.'" 
 
FLORIDA: "Gov. Charlie Crist told reporters today he'd make his decision on whether to run for U.S. Senate as an independent by Thursday -- a day before the deadline to make the switch," the Florida Sun-Sentinel reports.

HAWAII: "National Republicans are taking a page from Senate Republicans' successful playbook in Massachusetts by appearing to keep out of the upcoming House special election in Hawaii," Roll Call reports. "In traditionally Democratic states such as Hawaii and Massachusetts, visible intervention from the national GOP doesn't help candidates like Honolulu City Councilman Charles Djou (R), who is waging a competitive campaign in the free-for-all May 22 special election in a district that gave President Barack Obama 70 percent of the vote two years ago."

ILLINOIS: Before embattled Senate candidate Alexi Giannoulias appears with President Obama in Quincy, IL, the Cook Political Report moves the race from Tossup to the more competitive Lean Republican. "Now that Broadway has failed -- a failure that will cost the FDIC an estimated $394 million -- its impact on Giannoulias' campaign is enormous, and it is entirely possible that the fallout could force him from the race," the Cook Report writes. 

MASSACHUSETTS: "Republican Charles D. Baker is campaigning for governor as a fiscal hard-liner, repeatedly attacking Governor Deval Patrick and Democrats in the Legislature for raising taxes and showing little discipline on spending," the Boston Globe writes before adding, "But Baker's own experience in the public and private sectors -- as a one-term selectman in Swampscott, as the state's top budget official, and as the chief executive of a major health insurer -- muddies his critique. In all three roles, Baker either relied on new revenue to balance the books or had the luxury of a booming economy, obviating the need for drastic cuts." 
 
"State Treasurer Timothy P. Cahill, targeted in a hard-hitting ad campaign by a national Republican group, blamed the attacks squarely on his Republican gubernatorial rival, Charles D. Baker, who he said is resorting to negative tactics to prop up his flailing campaign," the Boston Globe reports. The ads are being run by the Republican Governors Association.

MISSOURI: Robin Carnahan will appear with Obama when he tours an ethanol plant in Macon, MO. "Carnahan plans to use the event to talk about jobs for Missouri," the AP reports.

NORTH CAROLINA: Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, who is running for Senate, releases her first campaign ad playing up her experience and "guts." 
 
PENNSYLVANIA: On the one-year anniversary of Specter's party switch, challenger Joe Sestak will speak in Washington and hit him on that and " 'set the record straight' about his time in the Navy," PoliticsPA reports.  
 
Actor Michael J. Fox cuts a campaign spot for Specter, praising his work on behalf of medical research funding.

From NBC's Ali Weinberg
The spate of criticism toward members of President Obama's debt-reduction team continued today as a group of progressive economists claimed that a one-day "fiscal summit," reflects the undue "Wall Street" influence of the summit's host, former investment banker and New York Fed chairman Peter G. Peterson, over the White House's economic policy.

As First Read reported earlier today, Grover Norquist's conservative group Americans for Tax Reform yesterday questioned the anti-tax bona fides of former Sen. Alan Simpson (R-WY), who chairs Obama's Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform with Erskine Bowles, accusing him of, among other actions, voting for a Social Security tax increase while Ronald Reagan was president.

Today, both Simpson and Bowles got heat from the left, as economists on a call organized by the liberal think tank Campaign for America's Future (CAF), criticized them for steering Obama's debt commission in a "dangerously conservative direction," focusing more on cutting the deficit through Medicare and Social Security reductions than medium-term goals of restoring the economy to its pre-recession levels of employment and revenue.

"The White House commission and Peterson's conservatives could cause the President and Congress to pivot away from job creation and stimulus even as the economy remains fragile," which would be "disastrous both economically and politically," CAF's co-director Roger Hickey warned on the call.

"If you put the cart before the horse and emphasize deficit-reduction first, it's a more painful way to get the budget balanced," added Robert Kuttner, co-founder and editor of the American Prospect.

Kuttner also said that Peterson's wealth and exposure through his epononymous foundation afforded him a strong voice in the debate on economic recovery, especially when some members of the commission are already sympathetic to his views.

"The Pete Petersons of the world have the megaphone and the conventional wisdom, even intimidated president of the United States that he has to have [Peterson's] version of fiscal austerity," Kuttner said.

Peterson, a co-founder of the Blackstone investment firm and former New York Fed chairman, was also Secretary of Commerce in 1972 under President Nixon, and served on economic advisory panels during the Ford and Clinton administrations. He convened the summit through his epononymous foundation with the goal of fostering a "national bipartisan dialogue on America's fiscal challenges," according to the foundation's website.

The summit's roster includes former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, Sen. Judd Gregg (R-NH) and Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI), and President Clinton's Treasury secretary Robert Rubin. Hickey said that the summit's very guest list demonstrates Peterson's attempts at exerting influence over the Obama administration.

"Rubin presided over the deregulation of Wall Street and the orgy of speculation and fraud that brought the financial system crashing down," Hickey said. "The Wall Street billionaires who activiated financial deregulation, who created the fiscal crisis, are gathering tomorrow to lecture senior citizens and the rest of us about the need to tighten our belts and slash Social Security and Medicare," he added.

Today's conference call fell on the same day that the deficit commission began its work. At opening remarks today, President Obama stressed that the commission would not fall prey to "special interest pressures, to the pull of local concerns, and to the reality familiar to every single American -- it's a lot easier to spend a dollar than to save one."

Obama continued, "We're not playing that game. I'm not going to say what's in. I'm not going to say what's out. I want this commission to be free to do its work."

Later toward the end of the meeting, Simpson lambasted critics on the right who have accused the commission of being "a stalking horse for taxes," saying that he and Bowles are only "stalking horses for our grandchildren" and that he has never been the favorite of the extreme wing of his party.

In remarks geared to reflect the difficulty of reaching a bipartisan consensus on deficit reduction, Simpson had criticism for both parties, who he said "have done nothing to stem this unstemmable tide. I was in the Senate for 18 years and the cry to me was always: Al, go bring home the bacon. Well, the pig has died."

From NBC's Ken Strickland and Mark Murray
Once again, Senate Republicans stopped Democrats from getting the 60 votes they need to bring the financial reform legislation to the floor.

The vote, like yesterday's, was 57-41.

From NBC's Mike Kosnar and Mark Murray
In testimony today before the Senate Judiciary Committee, Arizona's former governor -- Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano (D) -- says she has concerns about the state's new immigration law.

First, she noted that in Arizona, laws do not go into effect until 90 days after the close of the current state legislative session. Napolitano said that will give the Department of Justice time to review whether the law meets constitutional safeguards. When asked whether the law is constitutional, Napolitano refused to offer her own opinion.

What she did say was that from a law enforcement perspective, the law "will detract from and siphon resources that we need to focus on those in the country illegally who are, those who are committing the most serious crimes in addition to violating our nation's immigration laws."

Napolitano also said she has concerns that too many federal immigration resources will be needed in conjunction with any local or state arrests of simple violators -- such as detention and court proceedings -- when those resources should be used to go after more dangerous immigrants.

She went on to say that there is "no value added" by giving Arizona authorities the right to question anyone about their immigration status.

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Republicans have been railing against the financial regulation legislation, saying it would continue bailouts and that it would not end too big to fail.

Sen. Mitch McConnell claimed that the legislation would further bailouts beause of a $50 billion fund that is currently in the legislation. That is false, as we've reported previously, because it's a fund that would be used to liquidate a company and would be paid for by the banks.

But it is likely, however, that this legislation would not end too big to fail, as we have also reported before. Most experts agree that the only way to end too big to fail would be to break up the big banks or limit their size and scope.

But Republicans have been playing an interesting dance on "too big to fail" -- railing against its existence, but not advocating for the policies that would truly end it.

Now, there is an economic argument that the country needs very large banks. But Republicans, like Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, who was on MSNBC's Daily Rundown this morning, appear to be trying to have it both ways.

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Host Savannah Guthrie asked Hutchison what changes would have to be made to the legislation for her to vote for it.

"We would have to make sure that 'too big to fail' is gone away, that taxpayer bailouts will never happen again," she said. "And this bill does not satisfy the Republicans that it will end the advantage that big financial institutions have over our community banks."

OK, so then Hutchison would be for breaking up the banks or setting limits on their scope, right? Wrong.

Guthrie followed up and asked, "Would you support an amendment offered by Sens. Brown and Kaufmann that would actually set hard limits on how big banks could get?"

"No, because I want our banks to be able to compete in the global market place," she said. "I just want to make sure that we have the regulations in place that keep them from doing the crazy swaps and derivatives that they were doing that was a part of this financial fallout. But I don't want them not to be able to compete with European banks or Asian banks. We need to be globally competitive."

Then this afternoon, Sen. David Vitter re-Tweeted a news release from the Louisiana GOP that hit Democratic Senate hopeful and current congressman Charlie Melancon for supporting the financial reform bill.

The headline: "Melancon and Obama Siding with Wall Street Instead of Louisiana."

Why?

"It is really no surprise that Charlie Melancon has been cheerleading Obama's bill to create a permanent bailout for irresponsible financial firms and institutionalizes 'too big to fail,'" it continues.

But then, it laments: "The bill Melancon supports would also create a new super-bureaucracy that would allow unelected federal regulators to seize any business they see fit."

From NBC's Athena Jones
FT. MADISON, IA -- President Obama today kicked off a two-day, multi-stop trip to the Midwest with a tour of a wind turbine plant just across the Illinois border here, saying he wanted to talk with locals about the financial pain towns like this one are feeling but also about their economic potential.

Obama chose the Siemens Wind Turbine Blade Manufacturing Plant to highlight clean energy, which has long been a central part of his economic agenda. The plant employs 600, and it supports 350 other jobs in Lee County -- an area where unemployment is hovering at around 11%.

"Lately, we've been able to report some welcome news after a hard two years -- our economy is growing, our markets are climbing, our businesses are beginning to create jobs again. " he told the crowd. "The recovery isn't reaching everyone just yet. Times are still tough in towns like Fort Madison and times, are still tough for middle-class Americans, who had been swimming against the current for years before this economic tidal wave hit."

This trip back to the state where it all began for a one-time, long-shot presidential candidate is part of an effort to show the president understands the problems facing ordinary Americans who are still struggling as the economic recovery slowly takes hold. It's also an attempt to help shore up support for the Democratic president here in Iowa, Illinois, and Missouri, as the party prepares for a tough midterm election in the fall.

The president talked about his plan to rebuild the U.S. economy on a stronger foundation by overhauling the health-care system, improving schools, and updating the rules governing Wall Street. But today's focus was on clean energy, an industry Obama believes will be central to America's ability to compete in the 21st century global economy.

Republican critics have argued the president has not focused enough of job creation. In selling his administration's recovery efforts, Obama noted that the stimulus made "the largest investment in clean energy in our nation's history."

"That investment was part of the Recovery Act, and this facility took advantage of that act's Advanced Energy Manufacturing Tax Credit -- which allowed you to add equipment, boost output, and hire new workers right here in Fort Madison."

Calling wind power a key part of a comprehensive strategy to end America's dependence on foreign oil, Obama said he believed Congress would pass an energy and climate bill that would create more jobs in towns like this one.

The president holds a town hall in Ottumwa, IA later today. And on Wednesday, he visits a bio-refining company in Macon, MO; a farm in Palmyra, MO; and then speaks in Quincy, IL, where he is expected to emphasize the need to overhaul financial market regulations.

*** UPDATE, per NBC's Jenna Pfeffer *** In a conference call sponsored by the Republican National Committee, Iowa Republican Party Chairman Matt Strawn said he appreciated President Obama's visit to Iowa today. But Strawn bashed the president's economic policies.

"Unemployment has continued to rise, and Iowans want to get back to work," Strawn said on the call. 

Strawn urged the administration to work on "creating an environment that incentivizes job creation" and providing access to capital, instead of recklessly increasing federal spending. He asserted that Congressional overspending will just lead to a spike in interest rates, as well as that the administration's policies are just inhibiting small businesses from innovating and expanding.

Finally, Strawn ended the call by reaffirming the common GOP concern that the Obama administration is "piling debt" onto future generations of Americans because of out-of-control spending.

From NBC's Mark Murray
NBC's Andrea Mitchell interviewed the two co-chairs of President Obama's deficit-reduction commission, Erskine Bowles (D) and Alan Simpson (R), on her 1:00 pm ET MSNBC show. And the always-colorful Simpson, the former Wyoming senator, had plenty to say.

On dealing with the attacks the commission is receiving from the right and left:

MR. SIMPSON: We don't have any illusions. We both have loving wives and children and grandchildren, and we can go home to them. And we won't go home and suck our thumb, but we're going to give it a try.

I've never heard more cackling from the left and the right and the seniors. It's just -- it's an impossible thing we're doing, but I'm one of those naive people. I've been in impossible things -- immigration, Iraq Study Group. I've seen successes, and I don't know where we're going, but I do know that everything is on the table.

Someone you, you mean tell me that the new health-care bill is on the table? And we said, yeah.

MS. MITCHELL: Everything? Including the health-care bill?

MR. SIMPSON: Everything.

On the criticism he's receiving from anti-tax advocate Grover Norquist:

People should write and ask for his books because he's spending taxpayer money to send out this drivel. Somebody should write and be sure that he's spending those taxpayer bucks properly.

And on the increasingly partisan environment in the Senate:

Well, I think a lot of the venom came from the House. When I was there, the House was under the control of one party. It wouldn't have mattered if it would have been the Republicans, and the venom -- and they said, I've got to get out of this atmosphere, so they came to the Senate.

And they brought that terrible partisanship with them. Even the conquerors got tired of being, you know, after the slaves, and they just crawled out of the hole to the slave ship and came over to the Senate and started beating everybody up over there.

From NBC's Mark Murray
Earlier this morning, Republican aides seized on this potentially explosive charge: that the Obama administration swept under the rug an independent score on its health-care bill -- a week before passage -- that showed the legislation would actually increase health spending. 

The conservative American Spectator reported:

The economic report released last week by Health and Human Services, which indicated that President Barack Obama's health care "reform" law would actually increase the cost of health care and impose higher costs on consumers, had been submitted to the office of HHS Secretary Kathleen Sebelius more than a week before the Congressional votes on the bill, according to career HHS sources, who added that Sebelius's staff refused to review the document before the vote was taken.

"The reason we were given was that they did not want to influence the vote," says an HHS source. "Which is actually the point of having a review like this, you would think."

A little back story: While the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimated that the health-care legislation (Senate bill, plus reconciliation bill) would reduce the deficit by $138 billion over 10 years and $1.2 trillion over the next 10 years, the Office of the Actuary at HHS said last week that the new health-care law would raise health costs $311 billion from 2010 to 2019.

But after some digging, it's pretty clear that the Spectator report isn't accurate.

1. The Office of the Actuary didn't receive the language of the reconciliation bill until March 18 (when the legislation was posted), so the Spectator's assertion that HHS had a copy of the Actuary's score a week before congressional passage -- on March 22 -- doesn't make sense.

2. Past scores from the Office of the Actuary came out AFTER passage of the legislation. For the House bill that passed on Nov. 7, 2009, the Actuary's score came out on Nov. 13. And for the Senate bill that passed on Dec. 24, 2009, the Actuary's score came out on Jan. 8, 2010. This most recent Actuary report is dated April 22.

3. Given points #1 and #2, it's hard to see how the Actuary's score was available before the CBO's, which came out on March 18.