From NBC's Mark Murray
Earlier this morning, we noted how Sen. Jim DeMint (R) is trying to be a kingmaker in GOP Senate primaries this year by endorsing conservative underdogs who are battling more establishment Republican candidates.

Now comes some other DeMint news: In an interview with David Brody of the Christian Broadcasting Network, the South Carolina senator equates the Tea Party movement to a "spiritual renewal," despite the fact that many of the Tea Party complaints center on fiscal concerns, not social ones.

From the interview:

David Brody: Are you concerned at all that some of the social conservative issues, abortion and same sex marriage, some of these other issues because they are taking somewhat of a back seat right now at least to the fiscal issues that there are some inherent problems for social conservatives in something like that?

Senator Jim DeMint: No actually just the opposite because I really think a lot of the motivation behind these Tea Party crowds is a spiritual component. I think it's very akin to the Great Awakening before the American Revolution. A lot of our founders believed the American Revolution was won before we ever got into a fight with the British. It was a spiritual renewal.

Senator Jim DeMint: I'm 'praying for you' comes up more than anything else in these crowds so I know there's a spiritual component out there.

Senator Jim DeMint: I think as this thing (the Tea Party movement) continues to roll you're going to see a parallel spiritual revival that goes along with it.

David Brody: Just so I understand, when you say spiritual revival how are you terming that? What do you mean specifically as in "spiritual revival?

Senator Jim DeMint: Well, I think people are seeing this massive government growing and they're realizing that it's the government that's hurting us and I think they're turning back to God in effect is our salvation and government is not our salvation and in fact more and more people see government as the problem and so I think some have been drawn in over the years to a dependency relationship with government and as the Bible says you can't have two masters and I think as people pull back from that they look more to God. It's no coincidence that socialist Europe is post-Christian because the bigger the government gets the smaller God gets and vice-versa. The bigger God gets the smaller people want their government because they're yearning for freedom.

White House and congressional Democrats go big (and we thought last year was busy!)… Obama meets at WH with congressional to discuss SCOTUS pick at 10:30 am ET… Obama has already "begun conversations" about replacing Stevens, and he's looking for a "consensus builder"… GOP changes its tone on financial reform bill… First Read profiles Merrick Garland… Jim DeMint vs. the NRSC… For the NRCC, it's the majority or bust… Mitt Romney's living in California… Marco Rubio is under federal investigation… And Arlen Specter appears on "Daily Rundown," while Chris Dodd is on "Andrea Mitchell Reports." 

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg 
*** Going big: So much for the idea that Democrats were going to scale back and coast into the midterms. Consider: The Senate is furiously working to pass its financial reform legislation; the Kerry-Graham-Lieberman energy bill is supposed to be introduced on Monday; Sen. Scott Brown (R) said, per the Wall Street Journal, that President Obama told him Congress is going to move forward on immigration next month (does the new Arizona law almost force the White House's hand on this?); and then there's that little SCOTUS vacancy Obama has to fill. Back in January, after the GOP's victory in Massachusetts, there was plenty of talk that Democrats would go small, not big. But they're presently acting as if there's no tomorrow -- which, of course, could very well be the case after Nov. 2.

*** Beginning the SCOTUS conversations: Speaking of filling that SCOTUS vacancy, President Obama and Vice President Biden will meet in the Oval Office with congressional leaders at 10:30 am ET to discuss replacing retiring Justice John Paul Stevens. Attending the meeting: Senate Majority Leader Reid, Senate Minority Leader McConnell, Senate Judiciary Chairman Pat Leahy, and Senate Judiciary Ranking Member Sessions. According to NBC's Savannah Guthrie, a White House official confirms that Obama has "begun conversations" with prospective Supreme Court nominees. To be clear, though: No formal interviews have taken place, nor will they occur before the president's meeting today. After the meeting at the White House, the president will reach out and "consult with" other members of the Senate Judiciary Committee, as well. As for the timing of Obama's pick, the official said that it's likely to come in May, although the White House isn't ruling out a decision next week. 

*** Finding a 'consensus builder': NBC's Kelly O'Donnell is hearing the same thing from her sources on Capitol Hill: No selection is imminent, and the president will continue to work on the selection over the "next several weeks." Obama's meeting today, O'Donnell adds, is described as an opportunity for Hill leaders to offer their own advice, but it isn't expected to be a "floating names session." The president is expected to discuss the type of person he is seeking -- someone who can be "a consensus builder" who can "persuade others" to reach consensus on the court. Obama also is expected to press his timeline with lawmakers. According to sources, he will emphasize that if he announces a choice before May 26, the date Sotomayor was named, he expects confirmation completed before the August recess. There is NO desire among Senate Democrats for this confirmation process to drag on. In fact, Senate Democrats are expected to push the White House to name a nominee sooner rather than later, so Leahy could wrap up the committee hearing portion of this process BEFORE the July 4 recess. A nominee named, say, in the first week of May would make this a realistic timeline.

*** And the bar's been set: At a pen and pad briefing with reporters yesterday, NRCC Chair Pete Sessions pulled no punches when it came to the so-called "expectations game." He said anything short of winning the majority this year is nothing more than a "warm bucket of spit." Sessions also revealed that the GOP would indeed release a Contract with America, "painting a picture" of what a House GOP majority will look like and some deliverables that Sessions says voters can hold the party accountable for. This new Contract, Sessions said, would likely be unveiled after Labor Day. As for Sessions' race by race take, he touted a few things: 1) geographical balance in their target races; 2) the flood of "new" candidates, i.e. those folks who have NEVER held elective office; and 3) the need to improve in the suburbs. In short, it was a VERY confident Sessions presiding over this briefing.

*** GOP changes its tone: Turning to the Senate debate over the financial reform bill, the momentum is clearly pointing to passage. The Washington Post writes, "Key Senate Republicans on Tuesday began to back away from their sharp criticism of proposed new financial regulations and expressed optimism that a bipartisan deal on a bill that would drastically change the way Wall Street operates could emerge in the coming days." More: "After a week of attacking the proposals as paving the way for new taxpayer 'bailouts,' Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said on the Senate floor that he was 'heartened to hear that bipartisan talks have resumed in earnest.' Later, after a meeting with fellow Republicans, he told reporters that while he believes that there are still serious flaws in the legislation, 'I'm convinced now there is a new element of seriousness attached to this, rather than just trying to score political points… I think that's a good sign.'" By the way, Senate Banking Chairman Chris Dodd will appear on MSNBC's "Andrea Mitchell Reports," which airs at 1:00 pm ET.

*** Meet Merrick Garland: In the next of our brief profiles of Obama's potential SCOTUS picks, we take a look today at Merrick Garland, who sits on U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit. Garland is widely respected across the ideological spectrum. Lawyers, who have argued before him, regard him as "fair" (though left-leaning), "polite," even-tempered, "pleasant," "brilliant," and "painstakingly thorough."... It seems his whole life and career have been geared toward the Supreme Court: He's a Phi Beta Kappa Harvard law grad; he clerked on the court for Justice William Brennan; he worked in the Carter, Bush 41, and Clinton administrations; and he oversaw the Tim McVeigh and Unabomber prosecutions. In 1997, Clinton appointed him to the D.C. Circuit, which is seen by many as a stepping-stone to the Supreme Court. 
 
*** Pros and cons: Conservatives have praised Garland, saying he "may well be the best that conservatives could reasonably hope for from a Democratic president." But despite that bipartisan praise, the left likely wouldn't be as thrilled with a Garland pick as someone they would view as more clearly liberal (like, say, Diane Wood), particularly at a time when Democrats have 59 senators. And he would be replacing a justice considered to be one of the court's leading liberals. Garland is seen as a careful judge, but he also would apparently fit the Obama empathy mold. Said one lawyer, according to the Almanac of the Federal Judiciary: "He is an unusually empathetic man. He is very much aware of the impact of his decisions on real people."  One other pro some are arguing for Garland: that he might have the backbone to go toe-to-toe with John Roberts in a way that could even make him a consensus builder with, say, Anthony Kennedy. This issue of the "Roberts Court" is something that is of concern to the president, and some believe he views this court pick as an opportunity to find someone to "check" Roberts.

*** DeMint vs. the NRSC: Yesterday, Sen. Jim DeMint (R) endorsed Marlin Stutzman for Indiana Senate -- over the NRSC's preferred candidate, Dan Coats. And it's not the first time this has happened: In Florida's Senate contest, DeMint backed Marco Rubio when the NRSC was still firmly behind Charlie Crist (of course, that's since changed); In Colorado, DeMint favors Ken Buck over Jane Norton; and in California, he's supporting Chuck DeVore over the two establishment favorites, Tom Campbell and Carly Fiorina. DeMint's endorsements in these races have certainly created a DeMint-vs.-NRSC storyline. But that storyline could very well take a hit if, say, the underdog Stutzman loses to Coats in the May 4 Indiana primary and loses by a LOT, which is VERY possible. Ditto if Norton beats Buck, and if DeVore loses to Campbell or Fiorina. Then again, DeMint would be viewed as a GOP kingmaker if one of these underdogs ends up winning in their primaries.

*** West Coast Mitt? Did anyone else know that Mitt Romney was living in California? The AP's Johnson writes, "Since losing his presidential bid in 2008, Romney has gone West Coast. It's part of a personal and political repositioning as he looks to avoid campaign trouble spots and reorder his life ahead of a second White House campaign in 2012. Romney not only sold his family home in Belmont, Mass., but he bought a house -- for $12 million -- in the northern San Diego community of La Jolla. He traded a snowy commute for early morning beach strolls amid the dog walkers. And he's become a familiar face at California political events, addressing the state Republican convention last month and campaigning on behalf of his former Bain Capital protege, Meg Whitman, a candidate for governor." 

*** Rubio under investigation? Down in Florida, while all the attention is on Charlie Crist -- will he run as an independent? Will he end his campaign? -- don't miss this story concerning Rubio and the entire state GOP: "Federal law enforcement agencies have launched a criminal investigation into the use of American Express cards issued by the Republican Party of Florida to elected officials and staff, according to sources familiar with the inquiry… Meanwhile, in a separate inquiry, the IRS is also looking at the tax records of at least three former party credit card holders -- former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio, ex-state party chairman Jim Greer and ex-party executive director Delmar Johnson -- to determine whether they misused their party credit cards for personal expenses, according to a source familiar with the preliminary inquiry." This is a reminder that Rubio, despite his popularity with the GOP base, isn't that well known and not completely vetted. And it's not helpful to him in trying to woo indie voters in a general if attack ads can factually claim "under federal investigation."

*** Impacting the FL GOV race: By the way, this story is perhaps more damaging to the GOP when it comes to the gubernatorial race. Why? In Florida, the state parties are the conduit for running the general election campaigns. This investigation handcuffs the GOP. And this investigation doesn't JUST touch Rubio; it also touches Crist, since it was his handpicked chairman, Jim Greer, who was running the party when many of the expenses were incurred.

*** Why cutting budgets isn't easy: Yesterday, New Jersey voters went to the polls to decide on the budget in their school districts -- a routine vote that typically passes by large margins with voter turnout around 15%. This year, however, a majority of the budgets, 54%, were voted down, which hasn't happened since 1976. The vote brought a higher turnout, driven by Gov. Chris Christie's $820 million cut in aid across the state's 590 school districts. New Jersey has an almost $11 billion budget deficit, and the cuts are designed to help reduce state spending by 5%. But the vote's result demonstrates the difficulty of following a "cut first" path to a balanced budget, especially when those cuts come at the expense of children's education.

*** Super Senate Tuesday: Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter (D), who faces off against primary challenger Joe Sestak (D) on May 18, on the appears on MSNBC's "Daily Rundown" this morning.

*** More midterm news: In Florida, John McCain -- who probably wouldn't have won the GOP presidential nomination without Charlie Crist's endorsement -- says he won't support Crist in his Senate race if he runs as an independent… In Indiana, the GOP Senate candidates last night participated in a debate where they largely agreed on the issues… And in Nevada, Harry Reid's campaign is pouncing on comments that Sue Lowden (R) made on a Nevada news show, where she touted a bartering system for health-care services…

Countdown to IN, NC, and OH primaries: 13 days
Countdown to NE and WV primaries: 20 days
Countdown to AR, KY, OR and PA primaries, and PA-12 special: 27 days
Countdown to HI special election: 31 days
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 195 days

Click here to sign up for First Read emails. 
Text FIRST to 622639, to sign up for First Read alerts to your mobile phone.
Check us out on Facebook and also on Twitter.

"Pushing forward with one of his most consequential decisions, President Barack Obama has begun informal talks with potential nominees for the Supreme Court," the AP reports. "And now he is reaching out to the senators who will control the confirmation fight ahead."

The Hill says Obama "will nominate a replacement to fill the Supreme Court seat of retiring Justice John Paul Stevens no later than May 26. But a senior administration official said it's 'entirely likely' that the president's pick will come 'well before then.' ... May 26 is the same day Obama nominated Sotomayor last year."

Is immigration next? Harry Reid pledged to work on immigration reform this year. And Scott Brown in an interview with the Wall Street Journal said that Obama told him immigration is coming in a month. "He called me originally about illegal immigration, something that he wanted me to look at that was coming down the pike," Brown says of the call, which also roamed onto other topics like basketball and financial regulation. "I told him and others that I will read anything and make a judgment when it comes forth."

"Key Senate Republicans on Tuesday began to back away from their sharp criticism of proposed new financial regulations and expressed optimism that a bipartisan deal on a bill that would drastically change the way Wall Street operates could emerge in the coming days," the Washington Post says.

Roll Call: "Democratic and Republican Senators are bracing for a legislative battle royal over financial regulatory reform, but both sides are clearly hoping a bipartisan agreement breaks before they have to draw their rhetorical swords."

The New York Times: "Hoping to seize on populist fury on a day when Goldman Sachs reported blockbuster earnings, Senate Democrats on Tuesday sought to portray Republicans as siding with wealthy Wall Street interests in opposing tougher financial regulations. In news conferences, floor speeches and interviews, the Democrats said they would force Republicans to block the bill. Republicans, however, countered that bipartisan negotiations to avoid such a fight had resumed in earnest. But some leading Republicans, including Senator Richard C. Shelby of Alabama, the senior member of the banking committee, said it could take weeks to reach a deal." 

The House dropped DC voting rights until at least next Congress. "The bill has been plagued by opposition in Congress and from the D.C. Council ever since an amendment was attached to it that would alter the District's gun laws."
 
"A disconnect is growing among Hispanic lawmakers over the strategy for moving comprehensive immigration reform, with some pressuring President Barack Obama to push legislation this summer and others acknowledging the issue likely will have to wait until after the midterm elections," Roll Call reports.

Hotline's Reid Wilson reports, "The RNC spent more than $340K at a semi-annual meeting in Honolulu in Jan., the latest example of the party spending lavishly on itself while GOP officials worry they won't have enough money to take advantage of a promising national landscape this fall. According to FEC reports filed late Tuesday, the RNC spent $167K on facilities for the 3-day meeting, which took place at a posh resort in Waikiki. That figure doesn't include rooms and office space for the party employees who staffed the meeting, which added up to at least another $90K." 

(Of course, anyone who has ever been to Hawaii knows that the place isn't cheap -- especially for a conference for hundreds of people.)

The Washington Post writes, "Both the national Democratic and Republican party committees spend about two-thirds of the money they take in on the care and comfort of committee staffs and on efforts to raise more funds, with lavish spending on limousines, expensive hotels, meals and tips, an analysis of the latest financial disclosure data shows." 

Et tu, McCain? "Asked if he will support Crist as an Independent, [John] McCain told The Hill, 'No.' Pressed further, McCain said, 'I support Republicans.' McCain, who is facing a GOP primary challenge this year,  added that Crist is 'a dear friend. I like him, admire him and respect him, but I'm also a Republican.'" 
 
"For most lawmakers, DWI stands for 'driving while intoxicated.' For Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), DWI stands for 'driving while illegal,'" the New York Daily News writes. "In an appearance on 'The O'Reilly Factor' on Tuesday Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) said that illegal immigrants were intentionally causing car accidents along state freeways."  
 
"If President Obama wants to run again in 2012, he may need to prove to the state of Arizona that he was in fact born in the United States," the New York Daily News reports, adding, "Now dubbed the 'birther bill,' the provision won a preliminary 31-22 vote, but the bill itself still faces a formal vote before it is sent to the state's Senate." 

The Hill's headline from NRCC Chair Pete Sessions saying that not recapturing the House would represent a failure on his part: "Republican campaign chief sets bar at recapturing the House in November." Sessions said, "Anything less, and I do not fulfill my mission statement."

ALABAMA: Rep. Parker Griffith, a former Democrat, is "still sitting on $20,000 in campaign contributions from Democratic lawmakers," CQ reports. "According to Griffith's campaign, it's money that Democratic donors simply have not asked him to return."   

FLORIDA: "Federal law enforcement agencies have launched a criminal investigation into the use of American Express cards issued by the Republican Party of Florida to elected officials and staff, according to sources familiar with the inquiry… Meanwhile, in a separate inquiry, the IRS is also looking at the tax records of at least three former party credit card holders -- former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio, ex-state party chairman Jim Greer and ex-party executive director Delmar Johnson -- to determine whether they misused their party credit cards for personal expenses, according to a source familiar with the preliminary inquiry."

Rubio has released this statement: "After all the negative publicity regarding the way Charlie Crist's hand-picked chairman spent money at the state party, getting this information out in the open will be the best way to deal with it. As far as my spending is concerned, it was for legitimate political purposes. When I made personal charges, I paid for them directly to American Express. I have not been contacted and don't know anything about any potential inquiries, but I welcome the chance to set the record straight once and for all."

INDIANA: In a televised debate last night, the five GOP Senate hopefuls "largely agreed on the issues in a televised debate on Tuesday night, but each offered different reasons that he should be the Republican nominee," the Louisville Courier-Journal reports. "For two, it was at least in part their time previously serving in government. For two others, it was instead their lack of political experience and their work in the private sector. For state Sen. Marlin Stutzman, a farmer and small business owner, it was both."   

NEVADA: Harry Reid's campaign is pouncing on comments that Sue Lowden (R) made on a Nevada news show, where she touted a bartering system for health-care services. "I'm telling you that this works. You know, before we all started having health care, in the olden days our grandparents, they would bring a chicken to the doctor, they would say I'll paint your house. That's the old days of what people would do to get health care with your doctors. Doctors are very sympathetic people. I'm not backing down from that system."

Link to the clip is here (exchange takes place at about 12:30 in the interview).

UTAH: Dave Weigel writes on his Washington Post blog that Bob Bennett is in real trouble in a re-election bid. "I got an early look at a survey of state GOP delegates conducted by a Utah firm. It's not pretty. When more than 1,000 delegates were polled on their choices in the Senate race, only 15 percent chose Bennett. When asked for a second choice, only 5 percent picked Bennett. In the first test, he's barely in the top three, which raises the possibility of the three-term senator getting knocked out of the convention in the first round of voting. The frontrunner is Mike Lee, a first-time candidate who gets 35 percent of first-choice votes and 22 percent of second-choice votes."

From NBC's Athena Jones
It's not just French President Nicolas Sarkozy who likes his espresso.

Actor Tom Hanks has donated a new-and-improved espresso machine to the White House press corps.

It now sits just a few feet away from the smaller, less shiny machine he provided the press during the Bush administration.

The Pasquini Livia 90 Auto machine runs nearly $2,000, according to the product's Web site.

Hanks visited the old machine in the press area at the White House in March when he and Steven Spielberg came for a private screening with the Obamas of the HBO series "The Pacific."

From NBC's Mark Murray
Not more than a hour after President Obama returned to the White House after spending last night in California raising more than $3 million for Sen. Barbara Boxer and the DNC, Boxer's campaign just announced that Obama is going back to Cali.

Per the Boxer campaign, Obama will raise money for her in May -- this time in San Francisco.

From NBC's Ken Strickland
After criticizing Republican leaders yesterday for having a secret, closed-door meeting with Wall Street executives, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid today faced his own questions about a fundraiser he attended this year hosted by the president of Goldman Sachs.

Asked by reporters to confirm his attendance and how it played into the debate over financial regulatory reform, Reid didn't answer the question directly. Instead, he read from what appeared to be prepared remarks, touting his reform efforts.

"I'm leading the effort to rein in Wall Street," he said at his weekly on-camera news conference. "I'm going to make sure that in this legislation I do everything within my ability to make sure that banks aren't too big to fail."

Asked later by NBC News to confirm the fundraiser, Reid spokesman Jim Manley readily did so -- adding that everything was done in accordance with campaign finance rules. It raised $37,000, Manley said.

Yesterday, however, it was Reid and Manley who were on the attack, condemning Republican Leader Mitch McConnell and NRSC Chairman John Cornyn for meeting with Wall Street execs in New York City. In a written statement, Manley said the senators "should immediately reveal what they discussed earlier this month during secret, closed-door meeting with Wall Street executives in New York City."

When news of Reid's Goldman Sachs fundraiser was circulated yesterday, NRSC spokesman Brain Walsh said, "One can only presume that Sen. Reid will be return these donations immediately." Today, Manley said the majority leader plans to keep the money.

From NBC's Athena Jones
Park Police arrested several gay rights protestors who had handcuffed themselves to the fence in front of the White House. Capt. P.J. Beck of the Park Police said they were arrested for "failure to obey a lawful order" and that they would be taken to the Anacostia station to be processed.

According to a release from GetEQUAL, the gay rights group that organized the protest, there were six servicemembers arrested.

Police uncuffed them and slowly led them away one by one. Lt. Dan Choi, who was arrested here in a similar protest on March 18th, was the last to be handcuffed. GetEQUAL also organized that protest, and was also behind the group of protestors who interrupted President Obama's remarks at a Democratic National Committee fundraiser in Los Angeles Monday night.

Choi and another man wore fatigues and a black beret, a woman wore fatigues and a fourth man -- who appeared to be in his 50s or 60s -- wore a white Naval uniform.

Each protestor, including Choi, stood silently as they were uncuffed from the fence. Choi did not respond to shouted questions.

At one point, police had to use large metal cutters to get the cuffs off the fence. When Choi was finally uncuffed from the fence, police placed plastic cuffs on him and led him slowly to the waiting van.

From NBC's Luke Russert and Mark Murray
As we saw during the final stages of the health-care debate, Illinois Rep. Luis Gutierrez (D) isn't shy about taking his complaints public (he said he was going to vote against the health bill before eventually voting for it).

And now he's taking aim at President Obama's immigration policies, suggesting that Latino voters might not participate in the upcoming midterm elections -- if the administration and Democratic congressional leaders don't move forward on a comprehensive immigration bill.

In a press conference today blasting a new anti-immigration law in Arizona, Gutierrez said, "It seems to me that is an option for people to stay home [in November]. The choices have always been framed the following way -- the Republicans are so mean-spirited and so anti-immigrant that they simply push immigrants and Latinos into the waiting arms of Democrats."

"There is a third option for those voters," he added. "They don't necessarily have to fill the ranks of the Democratic Party. They can simply stay home, and that to me is an option that is there. It is not an option that I have called for. But let me be clear: It's not an option I have ruled out... Will I rule it out in the future? Absolutely not!"

Later, when speaking Spanish to Spanish-language reporters, Gutierrez was even harsher toward the Obama administration. "Where is the Justice Department? Here is an injustice against the basic rights. Where is the administration of Barack Obama and his Justice department?"

"And this week -- where is he? On Wall Street in New York talking with bankers. Look, it's time to work on immigration reform!"

From NBC's Mark Murray
Last night, Democratic Rep. Chris Van Hollen and GOP Rep. Mike Castle announced that they are teaming up to draft a legislative response to the Supreme Court's Citizens United vs. Federal Election Commission ruling, which permits corporate and labor interests to use their money directly in campaigns.

While Van Hollen and Castle haven't released the details of the legislation, a press release listed what they want to do -- establish tougher disclosure requirements, close loopholes to prevent foreign entities from spending on elections, and keep major beneficiaries of taxpayer money from financing campaigns.

"The court's ruling in this case demonstrates a blatant disregard for its own precedents and ignores the clear intent of Congress to reduce the influence of powerful special interests," the two men said. "We have an obligation to provide transparency and integrity in our political process, and we urge our colleagues to join us in supporting this important legislation."

Of course, it's interesting that the chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (Van Hollen) is teaming up here with a Republican running for the Senate in Delaware (Castle).

Van Hollen spokesman Doug Thornell responds, "This is an issue that shouldn't be held hostage by partisan politics. Both parties should want to reduce the influence of powerful special interests and increase transparency."

From NBC's Mark Murray and Sarah Blackwill
As we mentioned in First Thoughts this morning, Joe Sestak has launched his first TV ad in his Democratic Senate primary against Arlen Specter. Sestak's 60-second ad is mostly a bio spot, but it does take this shot at Specter: "If we want real change in Washington, we can't keep sending the same career politicians to represent us."

Meanwhile, Specter has a new TV ad hitting Sestak, calling him "No Show Joe" for his poor attendance record in the House (Hat tip: Politico).

From NBC's Mark Murray
In an interview last night on "Charlie Rose," White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel said that he wants to be mayor of Chicago -- something that has been long rumored.

Said Emanuel:

I hope Mayor Daley seeks re-election. I will work and support him if he seeks re-election. But if Mayor Daley doesn't, one day I would like to run for mayor of the City of Chicago.  That's always been an aspiration of mine even when I was in the House of Representatives.

Several moving parts in the battle over financial reform (Obama to speak in NY on Thursday, DNC up with new TV ad, Goldman Sachs earns $3.3 billion in 1st quarter and hires Greg Craig, and Mitch McConnell's tone shifts)… New Gallup poll shows that saying "Wall Street" makes quite a bit of difference in the results… The Crist soap opera continues… Rahm expects a real SCOTUS battle… First Read profiles Diane Wood… And Joe Sestak is up with his first TV ad.

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** Lots of moving parts: With the financial reform legislation expected to hit the Senate floor later this week, there are several moving parts out there. President Obama is set to deliver a speech on the subject on Thursday in New York… The DNC is up with a new TV ad hitting Wall Street (to run on national cable over the next two weeks)… Goldman Sachs' 1Q earnings doubled to $3.3 billion, and it hired former WH counsel Greg Craig to help it battle the legal and political challenges it's now facing… Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell's tone was less confrontational yesterday. ("In his remarks on Monday, the Washington Post says, McConnell conceded that 'both parties agree on this point: No bailouts.' He urged his Democratic colleagues to 'come together and direct our energies toward making sure we achieve that goal, and leave aside all the name-calling and second-guessing.'") And, perhaps most importantly, the Post mentions that GOP Sens. Bob Corker and Olympia Snowe said their concerns about the legislation could be resolved in a matter of days.

*** Wall Street, we have a problem: By the way, these new Gallup findings are interesting: 46% say they favor Congress passing a new law that would give the federal government new powers to regulate "large banks" and "major financial institutions," while 43% say they oppose the move. But when the wording in the question is changed to say "Wall Street banks," 50% say they favor the regulations, versus 36% who say they oppose them. And now you know why the president and the White House have shifted their rhetoric to ALWAYS include the phrase "Wall Street" before reform or financial regulation.

*** The Crist soap opera: The Charlie Crist story in Florida has sure turned into a soap opera. Yesterday, Crist left the door wide open to run as an independent. "I'm getting all kinds of advice. I take my cues from people in Florida. That's what I care about," Crist told the St. Pete Times. "I want to be very thoughtful in this. This is a decision that has to be made by (April) 30th, and I want to do what's right for the people of our state." Crist also told the AP that he intends to be "very, very thoughtful and deliberate" between now and the 30th. Still, that doesn't quite make the case to Florida voters -- or Republicans who've voted for him in the past -- why he should make an indie bid, other than personally benefiting his own political fortunes. After all, remember that his campaign released a statement on April 8 saying, unequivocally, that he wouldn't run as an independent. "He will not run as an Independent or as a No Party Affiliation."

*** How does he use the next two weeks? If Crist is going to run as an independent, he needs to start making the case beyond just political expediency. He has a window for the next two weeks where everyone in Florida will hang on to his every word. How he uses these next two weeks will tell us whether he has the chops to pull this off come the fall -- and perhaps beyond. His first challenge should he go indie: How does he answer the "which party will he caucus with?" question. Is it the Republicans or neither party? Meanwhile, Eric Cantor becomes the latest Republican to endorse Marco Rubio.

*** Rahm expects a real SCOTUS battle: Outside of Rahm Emanuel saying that he's definitely interested in becoming mayor of Chicago, the biggest news he made on "Charlie Rose" last night was his somewhat surprising prediction that there will be a battle over Obama's SCOTUS pick -- no matter who the nominee. "I think that there'll be a huge, huge battle… I think the President will obviously appoint a person that he thinks is appropriate and right for the Supreme Court, as he laid out the kind of criteria in the Justice Stevens model. I think if people took a fresh look at that, I don't think it has to be that type of battle. But we may be at a system and a time in which we have that type of battle." Of course, we haven't had a real SCOTUS battle since Clarence Thomas in 1991, and the current vacancy is swapping one liberal (John Paul Stevens) for probably another liberal (whomever Obama picks). Then again, if the financial reform legislation has turned into a full-out battle, then maybe Rahm is right…

*** Meet Diane Wood: In the next of our brief profiles of Obama's potential SCOTUS picks, we take a look today at Diane Wood of the 7th Circuit. Wood's pros: She wins praise from colleagues and lawyers for her smarts, her preparation, and her "incisive" opinions… A Wood pick would please the left, given that she has served as a liberal counterweight to conservative intellectuals on the 7th Circuit like Richard A. Posner and Frank Easterbrook (the three are friends, however, and they often have lunch together, and Posner even officiated Wood's wedding in '06, according to Bloomberg News)… In fact, she has won praise for finding consensus on the court, even with her conservative colleagues… If selected, she would bring educational diversity to the court, becoming the only current SCOTUS justice without an Ivy League degree (she earned her undergraduate and law degrees from the University of Texas at Austin, and you know First Read certainly won't hold that Longhorn education against her)… And Obama knows her -- the two taught law together at the University of Chicago, and they were reportedly friendly but not close.

*** Pros and cons: Wood's cons: Conservatives have more ammunition to use against her than they would against Elena Kagan or Merrick Garland, although none of her positions are outside the Democratic mainstream… She has a clear pro-choice record and has praised the late Justice Harry Blackmun, who wrote the majority opinion for Roe v. Wade (and for whom she clerked), for articulating privacy and individual rights… Wood delivered a lecture in 2005 stating her view that the Constitution is a living document that's adaptable to a changing world… On the 7th Circuit, she argued that atheists should be able to challenge mostly-Christian prayers that open the Indiana Legislature… And she ruled that a gay Wisconsin teacher should be able to sue for alleged discrimination… But this could be Wood's biggest shortcoming: At 59, she's one of the older Supreme Court possibilities for Obama (and she will turn 60 on July 4). By the way, John Paul Stevens turns 90 today…

*** Super Senate Tuesday: In Pennsylvania, Joe Sestak is expected to release his first TV ad today, PA2010 reports (hat tip: Politico). "Sestak's campaign will hit the airwaves Tuesday during the morning news cycle, according to someone familiar with the ad buy. This person described the initial airtime purchase as large, and said the statewide push would begin with a 60-second spot that starts the ad blitz with a positive tone."… Also in Pennsylvania, in that May 18 special election for the late Jack Murtha's House seat, the Washington Post's Cillizza reports that a poll taken for a conservative group shows Mark Critz (D) at 40% and Tim Burns at 39%. This is a special election that Dems should win, especially since it's taking place on the same day at the Dem SEN and GOV primaries.

*** More midterm news: In Iowa, another one bit the dust in Gov. Chet Culver's re-election campaign -- as chief of staff John Frew became the latest in "a series of top aides" to announce his resignation…  In New York, "Attorney General Andrew Cuomo maintains a nearly 40-point lead over former Republican Representative Rick Lazio and an even larger lead over Democrat-turned-Republican Suffolk County Executive Steve Levy," a Siena Research Institute poll finds… And in Utah, the Salt Lake Tribune says that only person who might be able to save Sen. Bob Bennett is Mitt Romney.

Countdown to IN, NC, and OH primaries: 14 days
Countdown to NE and WV primaries: 21 days
Countdown to AR, KY, OR and PA primaries, and PA-12 special: 28 days
Countdown to HI special election: 32 days
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 196 days

Click here to sign up for First Read emails. 
Text FIRST to 622639, to sign up for First Read alerts to your mobile phone.
Check us out on Facebook and also on Twitter. 

The Los Angeles Times on Obama's fundraisers for Sen. Barbara Boxer last night. "In a foray that underscored the tough reelection battle facing Sen. Barbara Boxer, President Obama visited Los Angeles on Monday for a set of fundraisers expected to raise nearly $3.5 million for the three-term senator and the Democratic National Committee. Obama mixed support for Boxer with a defense of his own leadership, arguing that while there would be 'some hard days ahead' for the nation, signs of progress abound: the economy is expanding, businesses have begun hiring and tax revenue is edging up." 

Obama also mentioned that Boxer could lose. "I don't want anyone here taking this for granted," he said in Los Angeles last night. "Unless she's got that support she might not win this thing, and I don't think that's an acceptable outcome. So I want everyone to work hard."

Meanwhile, Obama was interrupted by gay rights protesters at the fundraiser, who shouted: "What about 'Don't ask, don't tell?'" Obama yelled back: "We are going to do that."

Turning to financial reform, Obama is on the front page of the New York Post with this headline: "Wall buster!"

Meanwhile, the New York Daily News' cover is: "You don't call? Mayor miffed Obama snub on Thursday visit here."

"If diplomacy fails and Iran gets a nuclear bomb, the U.S. would still have ways to discourage Tehran from using these terrifying weapons," the AP writes. "But there are limits on what even the world's sole superpower can do to contain a nuclear-armed Iran and blunt its influence in the volatile Middle East."

"Democratic leaders scrambled Monday to peel away the Republican votes they need to bring a Wall Street reform package to the Senate floor this week -- an effort hampered by sharp partisan divisions," the Washington Post front-pages. "Both sides are eager to exploit a lingering resentment toward Wall Street in the election-year debate. Democrats have seized on the attempt to curb reckless investment practices as part of an effort to depict the GOP as out of touch with the concerns of average Americans. On Monday, Democrats sought to use a lawsuit brought against financial giant Goldman Sachs by the Securities and Exchange Commission as a cudgel to persuade Republicans to line up behind the bill."

Roll Call adds, "Neither Senate Democrats nor Republicans seem all that confident that they have identified a winning strategy when it comes to the upcoming financial regulatory reform debate. Though Democratic leaders claim they are willing to bring the bill to the floor as soon as Thursday with or without GOP support, they are also relying on a full-court press by the White House and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner to recruit the crucial Republican votes that they need to overcome a threatened GOP filibuster."

1,500? The New York Times: "With so much money at stake, it is not surprising that more than 1,500 lobbyists, executives, bankers and others have made their way to the Senate committee that on Wednesday will take up legislation to rein in derivatives, the complex securities at the heart of the financial crisis, the billion-dollar bank bailouts and the fraud case filed last week against Goldman Sachs."  

"Senator Scott Brown's use of as-yet-unsubstantiated industry estimates to predict the number of jobs that would be lost to greater financial regulation drew fire yesterday as partisan debate continued to heat up in the US Senate," the Boston Globe reports. "Brown said yesterday that his weekend prediction on national TV Sunday that tightening Wall Street rules would kill 25,000 to 35,000 jobs in Massachusetts was 'based on my speaking with industry leaders' in recent weeks, but he did not cite any specific analysis. That varied from an explanation offered by his representatives on Sunday, when his office said Brown was given the estimate by the chief executive of MassMutual, a large insurance company headquartered in Springfield."

"In the latest mess involving Rep. Charlie Rangel's (D) finances, the former Ways and Means chairman's campaign committee paid $26,000 in fines to New York City on Jan. 19," Roll Call reports. "What could possibly lead to such a massive sum? Rangel's office isn't saying."

Mitt Romney endorsed Marco Rubio and campaigned with him in Tampa, FL. "Marco Rubio's meteoric rise -- first to Florida speaker of the house, and now to a candidate for the US Senate -- is the embodiment of the American Dream," Romney said. "While I respect Governor Crist, Marco Rubio's proven record of conservative, principled, and idea-driven leadership is what Florida needs now. Marco Rubio will be a reliable spokesman against the Washington culture of higher spending, higher taxes, and higher debt."

Romney also waded into whether or not Crist should run as an independent: "At a rally in Tampa yesterday, Romney urged Crist not to follow that path and possibly undercut Rubio's chances. Romney, former Massachusetts governor who ran for the GOP nomination for president in 2008, said that Crist should stay in the US Senate race as a Republican or step aside and support his opponent. He said he expects 'Crist to do the right thing.'" 
 
What is George Pataki up to with this Paul Revere ad?

"House Republicans, seeing scores of seats within their grasp, are turning up the fundraising heat on corporations and trade associations, groups they hope will push their party over the finish line on Election Day," Roll Call reports. "National Republican Congressional Committee Deputy Chairman Greg Walden (Ore.) last week called out more than 100 downtown political action committee representatives at the Capitol Hill Club for giving too much campaign cash to Democrats this cycle, according to multiple sources. While Walden stopped short of threatening the PAC executives with political retribution, a source in attendance observed that his point was clear: 'Republican leadership is watching.'"

FLORIDA: "Gov. Charlie Crist said Monday he may quit his GOP primary race and run for the Senate as an independent, his once-promising career threatened by fast-rising conservative opposition. After weeks of insisting he would stay in the Aug. 24 primary, Crist told The Associated Press in a phone interview he intends to be 'very, very thoughtful and deliberate' as he makes up his mind. The governor trails conservative rival Marco Rubio by double-digit margins in public polls after holding a huge lead at the outset." 

"With Gov. Charlie Crist facing a brutal Republican U.S. Senate primary or a full-blown party mutiny if he runs as an independent, prominent supporters are urging him to consider a third option: quitting altogether," the St. Pete Times reports. "The toughest assessment came from the arm of the national Republican Party that had clamored to endorse Crist and shove aside rival Republican Marco Rubio nearly one year ago, when their positions in the polls were reversed."

"'We believe there is zero chance Gov. Crist continues running in the Republican primary,' said Rob Jesmer, executive director of the National Republican Senate Committee, in a memo. 'It is our view that if Gov. Crist believes he cannot win a primary then the proper course of action is he drop out of the race and wait for another day.'"

IOWA: Another one bites the dust in Gov. Chet Culver's (D) re-election campaign as chief of staff John Frew became the latest in "a series of top aides" to announce his resignation.   
 
KANSAS: "Rep. Todd Tiahrt (R-Kan.) announced Monday that he has the backing of Rep. Mike Pence (R-Ind.), the third-ranking Republican in the House, in his primary bid for Senate against Rep. Jerry Moran," CQ reports.

"More than most open-seat candidates, Democrat Stephene Moore's bid in Kansas' 3rd district will be heavily influenced by the man she is trying to replace," Roll Call writes. "Moore's husband, retiring Rep. Dennis Moore (D), has a history of winning tough races in the competitive east Kansas district, and it's clear she will get a boost from his name identification. But from a strategic perspective, is it smart for Stephene Moore to align herself with her husband's legacy, given the anti-Washington, D.C., sentiment circulating through the 2010 midterm elections? Does she even have a choice, given their shared last name?"  
 
KENTUCKY: Rudy Giuliani endorsed Trey Grayson in the Kentucky GOP primary. "Trey Grayson is the candidate in this race who will make the right decisions necessary to keep America safe and prevent more attacks on our homeland," Giuliani said. But the Rand Paul campaign dismissed the endorsement. "Another pro-abortion, liberal, northeastern Republican endorsing Trey Grayson is just more bad news for him," campaign manager David Adams said. 

NEW YORK: "Attorney General Andrew Cuomo maintains a nearly 40-point lead over former Republican Representative Rick Lazio and an even larger lead over Democrat-turned-Republican Suffolk County Executive Steve Levy," a Siena Research Institute poll finds.  
 
UTAH: The support of the state's "most revered politician," Mitt Romney, might be the only way Sen. Bob Bennett survives the May 8th Republican convention, the Salt Lake Tribune quoted the state's attorney general, who supports Bennett challenger Mike Lee.

From NBC's Ken Strickland
After meeting today with Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, moderate Republican Sen. Susan Collins reaffirmed her opposition to the financial regulatory reform bill. And she made it clear she'd vote against starting debate on the bill if Majority Leader Harry Reid attempts to bring it to the floor later this week, citing Republicans' strategic disadvantage.

"But I also told him of my belief that we can work out a truly bipartisan bill that will strengthen our financial system," Collins told reporters following her meeting with Geithner. She said the thought such an agreement could be worked out in a few weeks.

Collins chief criticism of the bill is the $50 billion fund that would be used to wind down failing firms. She said the fund would send a signal that firms could continue to engage in risky practices with the knowledge that money would be available to bail them out (even though the firms would finance that $50 billion fund). Collins said that Geithner "agreed with my concerns," and that the administration did not support such a fund.

As a remedy, the senator suggested that there be higher capital requirements for institutions as they increase in size. 

She said the bill "does nothing" to address the problems with Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, "which obvious contributed to the financial crisis." More transparency in derivatives was also an area of concern for Collins.

Instead of blocking the bill from coming to the floor, Democrats says Republicans should bring the bill to the floor and offer amendments to make whatever changes they think are necessary. Republicans, seeing the strategic disadvantage, are pushing to negotiate a new bill first and then bring it to the floor.

Strategically, Republicans would face a daunting task of changing the bill if they allowed it to go the floor "as is." Democrats could vote to "table" or essentially kill any Republican amendment with only 51 votes. In a worst case scenario, Republicans would have to find 60 votes (or flip 19 Democrats) to overcome a Democratic filibusters on a Republican amendment.

(Democrats used the "tabling" strategy successfully last week in the bill to extended unemployment benefits, killing at least three Republican amendments from Tom Coburn.)

"It's much harder to correct fundamental flaws in a bill once it's gone to the Senate floor," Collins said. "For one thing it can take 60 votes to make those corrections."

From NBC's Ali Weinberg
Both the liberal and conservative blogospheres have plenty to say about continued rumors that Gov. Charlie Crist will eventually run as an independent against Republican Marco Rubio, fueled most recently by Crist's decision to pull his TV ads, which First Read reported on this morning. The consensus on both sides of the aisle seems to be that no one can predict Crist's next move, but smart money would be on a shift.

Jim Geraghty, writing at conservative National Review Online, also used his headline to pose a question: "What is Crist doing?" He suggests that the campaign's actions today reflect an absence in direction: " No independent bid? Pulling ads? The Crist campaign is Lost. I don't mean that they can't win or that they don't know what they're doing; I mean that they're in a tropical location, nobody can follow their story lines, the little bit that we know gets ever more complicated and contradictory, and whenever we think we've figured something out, that bit of information gets eaten by a smoke monster."

And GOP 12's Christian Heinze wrote that a press release from the Crist campaign, attempting to divert attention away from his will-he-won't-he Independent shift "seems to talk." The release touted Crist's "long record of transparency" in releasing his 2009 tax return, while his campaign spokeswoman criticized Rubio's "unethical spending habits," a charge which has not stuck to Rubio despite the Crist campaign's efforts.

Liberal blogger Steve Benen of the Washington Independent commented on NRSC executive director Rob Jesmer's claim that there is "zero chance" that Crist continues to run as a Republican. Benen writes of Crist's enigmatic strategy: "Crist's next move is anybody's guess," adding, "I'm especially interested to see how Crist responds to the NRSC's Jesmer email -- I wouldn't be too surprised if the message pushes Crist closer to a third-party run, since he'll no doubt be annoyed by the disrespect."     

Daily Kos's Markos Moulitsas reflected the uncertainty pervading the blogosphere on the Florida governor, asking, "What will Crist do?" Assuming Crist switches to an Independent affiliation, Moulitsas wrote, "a three-way race with Rubio, [Kendrick] Meek and Crist makes this a real crapshoot of a race. And with Rubio the presumptive nominee, it'd be good to see both Crist and Meek pounding away at the Republican. And while we'd root for Meek, a Crist victory (presuming he caucuses with Democrats, which is what the rumors suggest), would be nice consolation. So keep your fingers crossed for an independent bid."

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Two different polls out today have fresh insights on the Tea Party movement. One is an "exit poll" sponsored by Politico, the other is the Pew poll.

Politico hired exit pollster Edison Research to get a better view of those who attend Tea Party rallies. They found a Sarah Palin wing and a Ron Paul wing.

From the Washington, DC, tax day rally, it found: "Tea party activists are divided roughly into two camps, according to a new POLITICO/TargetPoint poll: one that's libertarian-minded and largely indifferent to hot-button values issues and another that's culturally conservative and equally concerned about social and fiscal issues."

One unifying issue, however, is their disdain for President Obama. "The attendees were largely hostile to President Barack Obama and the national Democratic Party -- three-quarters believe the president 'is pursuing a socialist agenda.'"

And: "In general, those who turned out for the April 15 event tended to be less culturally conservative than national Republicans. Asked to rate their level of anger about 22 issues on a scale of one (not angry at all) to five (extremely angry), the issue that drew the most anger: the growing national debt. The least: courts granting same-sex couples the right to marry. Twenty-four percent said they're 'not at all' upset about gay marriage."

They are overwhelmingly Republicans or disaffected Republicans: "For all their differences, these activists share much. They've traditionally supported Republicans: 70 percent backed Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) in 2008; just 12 percent voted for Obama." It should be no suprise then that "11 percent said they'd consider voting for Obama in 2012."

Pew shows the majority of people -- 61% -- either had no opinion on the Tea Party movement or had not heard of it. A quarter surveyed -- 24% -- said they agree with it, and just 14% said they don't.

Those that agree are generally older, white, college educated, higher income, married, and Republican. The largest bloc of those who agree are 65 and older (33%), followed by 50-64 (32%), then 30-49 (23%) and drops off among those 18-29 (9%). By race, whites agree the most (28%) as compared to Hispanics (17%) and blacks (7%). By education, 30% of college grads agree; 26% with some college do; and 20% have a high school education or less. By income, 35% of those making $75,000 a year or more agree; 23% of those making $30,000 to $74,999 do; and just 14% of those making less than $30,000 do.

By party identification, 45% of Republicans agrees (vs. just 4% who don't), 26% of independents (vs. 14% who don't), and 6% of Democrats (vs. 24% who don't). And they're even more Republican when leaners are pushed.

Of those who lean Republican, 53% agree and just 12% of independents and 7% of Democrats do.

In the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll from last month, 29% had a positive view of the Tea Party movement vs. 28% who had a negative one.

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
First Confederate History Month, now Viagra?

Gov. Bob McDonnell has pulled erectile dyfunction drug funding for state employees from the state budget.

In fairness to McDonnell, The Washington Examiner reports:

"Former Gov. Tim Kaine proposed in December to remove coverage for all erectile dysfunction medication. The General Assembly, as it retooled Kaine's budget, quietly reinstated the drugs with no explanation. The state expects to save $7 million a year by cutting out coverage for erectile dysfunction drugs and nonsedating antihistamines, as well as creating a new 90-day maintenance drug network. The legislature will reconvene for a single-day session on Wednesday to consider McDonnell's proposed amendments and give final approval to the budget plan, which covers state spending for the coming two fiscal years."

From NBC's Mark Murray
The new Pew survey showing that only 22% of the country trust the federal government in Washington is receiving lots of attention -- and deservedly so.

But the poll doesn't ask why people aren't trusting the federal government and whom they are blaming for the distrust. Fortunately, our January NBC/WSJ poll delved into these questions.

In that survey, just 28% said that the federal government was healthy or working ok, versus a whopping 70% who said it wasn't working or was unhealthy. By comparison, in Dec. 2000 -- as the Bush vs. Gore presidential contest was still unresolved -- our poll showed that 55% said the federal government was working, compared with 43% who said it wasn't working. 

Strikingly, the Jan. 2010 NBC/WSJ poll found that the public was blaming congressional Republicans and congressional Democrats more than they were President Obama: 48% said they blamed congressional Republicans for not finding solutions to the problems the U.S. is facing, 41% blamed congressional Democrats, and 27% blamed Obama.

And why isn't the public trusting the government? That Jan. 2010 poll found that 93% said there's too much partisan fighting between Democrats and Republicans; 84% said special interests have too much influence over legislation; 74% said the government isn't doing enough to regulate Wall Street; 61% said Democratic majorities are trying to push through legislation without bipartisan compromise; an equal 61% said Republicans are trying to block any Democratic legislation without bipartisan compromise; 58% said the federal government is doing too much; and 47% said Obama is failing to provide the kind of leadership needed on the economy and health care. 

From NBC's Ken Strickland
If Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid tries to bring the financial regulatory reform bill to the floor this week -- as it's currently written -- Republicans have the votes to block it, a senior GOP leadership aide said today. But Banking Committee Chairman Chris Dodd essentially dared Republicans to do it.

The Republican aide cited the letter sent to Reid last week signed by all 41 Senators saying they "are united in our opposition" to the bill. (Democrats will need 60 votes to start debate.) Although the letter was not explicit that Republicans would filibuster, the aide maintained the votes are there to do so.

At a news conference today, Dodd was skeptical. "The words about filibusters are not in that letter," Dodd said. Pointing to the fraud case pending against Goldman Sachs, he added, "I don't really believe Republican members want to be in a position where they're talking about filibustering a bill that would allow us to address those issues."

In an apparent effort to secure at least one Republican vote needed, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner will meet this afternoon with moderate Republican Susan Collins. Her office confirmed today the senator will vote against "the motion to proceed" to the legislation.

The most vocal criticism of the bill involves a $50-billion fund -- paid for by the financial industry -- to wind down failing banks. Republican Leader Mitch McConnell has said it would "institutionalize" government bailouts.

Dodd said the idea for the fund came from Republicans, calling it "the irony of ironies." The White House is lukewarm to notion of the fund, but Dodd says the administration has not asked him to take it out of the bill.