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  • First thoughts: The eyes are upon you

    It's Primary Day in Texas… Polls close at 8:00 pm ET in most parts of the state and at 9:00 pm ET in the El Paso area… Harold Ford drops NY Senate primary bid… The Washington Post stokes a Rahm vs. Obama rift… Obama-care vs. Romney-care… Bill Halter vs. J.D. Hayworth… And Obama today heads to Georgia to talk jobs, and will talk about health care tomorrow. 

    From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
    *** The eyes of the political world are upon you: Today is Primary Day in Texas, where the marquee race is the GOP gubernatorial primary featuring incumbent Gov. Rick Perry, Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, and Tea Party fav Debra Medina. The winner needs 50% to avoid an April 13 run-off. On the Democratic side, ex-Houston Mayor Bill White is the overwhelming front-runner. Over the past few weeks, we've recounted the various themes here: Kay Bailey Hutchison's struggles, how Perry has used Hutchison's work in Washington against her, Medina's rise (and fall?), and White's fighting chance against Perry in a general election match-up. Polls open at 8:00 am ET and close at 8:00 pm ET, but in El Paso and the surrounding area, they close at 9:00 pm ET. By the way, today just happens to be Texas Independence Day down in the Lone Star State…

    *** Rick Perry's playbook: So it's an anti-incumbent year, right? Well, then how did the second-longest-serving governor in the country (and longest in Texas history) apparently survive this primary challenge, if the polls are correct? The answer: Being an incumbent in WASHINGTON is worse than being an incumbent in AUSTIN, apparently. Staying with how Perry has used Hutchison's work in Washington against her, it's worth pointing out that at least nine senators and House members are running for governor this cycle: Hutchison in Texas, Sam Brownback in Kansas, Neil Abercrombie in Hawaii, Gresham Barrett in South Carolina, Artur Davis in Alabama, Nathan Deal in Georgia, Mary Fallin in Oklahoma, Pete Hoekstra in Michigan, and Zack Wamp in Tennessee. Did Rick Perry provide their opponents with a playbook how to win in a cycle when Washington is so unpopular?

    *** Ford tough? For the second time in the past four days, we've seen a prominent New York Democrat decide not to run for office this year. On Friday, it was Gov. David Paterson; on Monday night, it was Harold Ford Jr. In a New York Times op-ed, Ford writes, "If I run, the likely result would be a brutal and highly negative Democratic primary -- a primary where the winner emerges weakened and the Republican strengthened. I refuse to do anything that would help Republicans win a Senate seat in New York, and give the Senate majority to the Republicans." Yet much of the rest of his op-ed criticizes the Democratic Party, especially those who were backing Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand. "These are tough times, and the New Yorkers I have met are facing economic adversity with grace and dignity… And yet too few in the Democratic Party are really willing to break with orthodoxy to meet these challenges. We need leaders as good as the people they represent -- leaders focused on creating jobs, keeping taxes low, helping small businesses and restoring faith in government."

    *** Ford's stumbles, Gillibrand's vulnerability: Yet Ford's op-ed neglects to mention his own stumbles out of the gate -- his New York Times interview in which he said he visited Staten Island via helicopter, the fact that he wasn't paying New York taxes, or the rude reception he received from New York gays. One Democratic aide poses this question to First Read: "Who had a worse foray into their race: Dan Coats or Harold Ford?" Still, you could argue that Ford's potential challenge did expose to a larger audience of political elites in New York and DC that Gillibrand is vulnerable (despite the lack of a real GOP challenger right now) -- and it seems to have spurred Mort Zuckerman to think about running. Also, it's worth speculating whether Paterson dropping out hurt Ford, since he may have been counting on a competitive gubernatorial primary to help drive up African-American turnout. As for Zuckerman, we're hearing he's trying to figure out a way to run, a la Bloomberg the first time, in a fusion like way as an indie/GOPer. Many New York Republicans are surprisingly receptive to the supposed left-of-center billionaire. Sound familiar? MSNBC's "Andrea Mitchell Reports," which begins airing at 1:00 pm ET, interviews Gillibrand today.

    *** The Rahm rift: Outside of these campaign happenings, here's the story generating the most buzz in DC this morning: A week after the Washington Post's Milbank wrote a piece vigorously defending White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel ("Arguably, Emanuel is the only person keeping Obama from becoming Jimmy Carter"), the Post today runs a front-page story suggesting that Emanuel and other White House staffers aren't on the same page. From the story: "[I]n the search for what has gone wrong, influential Democrats are -- in unusually frank terms -- blaming Obama and his closest campaign aides for not listening to Emanuel," especially Rahm's argument not to try Khalid Sheik Mohammed in civilian court. Rahm backers are pushing back against the Post story ("They are just trying to stir the pot," one White House aide says of the Post; other argue this Post story is nothing more than an expanded Milbank column), but these two stories create the perception that the president and his chief of staff aren't on the same page -- something we did NOT see publicly with past chiefs of staff like Andy Card, Josh Bolten, John Podesta.

    *** Keeping it in the family? Of course, internal dissent can be a good thing. But what may irritate the president and the campaign-era brain trust is what this Post story implies: Rahm shared his personal dissent on KSM and health care with others outside "the family." Remember, we never saw these types of stories about Team Obama during the presidential campaign; it was something we expected from Teams Clinton and McCain. Then again, Rahm was never part of that Obama campaign team; he cut his teeth in the Clinton era, when that president seemed to handle or even embrace the public dissent. What the president and other White House staffers might find particularly frustrating is that -- regardless whether this perception is true or not -- they can't make a chief of staff change right now. Emanuel is too important in getting health-care done. Also, a Rahm departure would allow the Lindsey Grahams to further criticize the White House on KSM and national security and paint the president as on an island.

    *** Perception matters: Also, there's much to Emanuel that the president likes, and he is fiercely loyal once the "play is called" as one person indicated in the Post story. But the issue some may have with Rahm at this point is the PERCEPTION that he worries too much about his own reputation -- at the expense of the president. By the way, for Rahm's practical political future, nothing will irritate him more in this Post story than the Luis Gutierrez criticism, since that's one less endorsement he can count on if he ever runs for Chicago mayor.

    *** Obama-care = Romney-care? Today's also the day that Mitt Romney's new book, "No Apology: The Case for American Greatness" is released; tomorrow, he begins a nearly three-month book tour that will take him to early primary states (like IA, NH, NV, SC) and battleground states (like CO, FL, MI, OH). As Romney kicks off his book tour -- and begins laying the foundation for a presidential bid -- one of the more underreported stories is whether his effort to reform Massachusetts health-care system could come back to haunt him in an environment where the entire GOP, including Romney, is against Obama's health reforms. "Americans said no because Obama-care is bad care for America!" Romney declared at CPAC last month. But as health-care policy experts know, Obama-care looks a whole lot like Romney-care in Massachusetts -- it gives subsidies for the poor, it mandates that all have insurance, it prohibits insurers from denying those with pre-existing conditions; and it sets up an exchange (or the equivalent) where folks can purchase insurance plans. On "TODAY" this morning, Romney said: "Our health-care plan was a heck of a lot better… Let the states resolve these issues," not have a federal one-size-fits-all approach.

    *** Halter vs. Hayworth: It's worth comparing how Bill Halter in Arkansas and J.D. Hayworth in Arizona rolled out their primary bids. Halter at least had figured out how to get the maximum out of his base (MoveOn, Hamsher, DailyKos all immediately backed him and raised an impressive sum of money; there's also the quick AFL-CIO nod), while Hayworth couldn't even get a press release endorsement from the Tea Party folks in Arizona.  Now we don't know if there are enough progressives/liberals in Arkansas to vault Halter to victory, a la Ned Lamont. But the first day energy OUTSIDE OF THE STATE between Lamont and Halter is there. 

    *** Obama today and tomorrow: Today President Obama takes his White House to Main Street tour to Savannah, GA, where he tours Savannah Technical College at 11:55 am ET, delivers remarks on the economy at 12:30 pm, tours a local manufacturing facility at 1:20 pm, and tours a local small business at 2:50 pm. Tomorrow, the New York Times reports, Obama will talk about a way forward on health care. "President Obama this week will begin a climactic push to rally restive Congressional Democrats to pass major health care legislation by hammering the argument that the costs of failure will be higher insurance premiums and lost coverage for individuals and businesses."

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  • Obama agenda: Wed. speech preview

    The New York Times: "President Obama this week will begin a climactic push to rally restive Congressional Democrats to pass major health care legislation by hammering the argument that the costs of failure will be higher insurance premiums and lost coverage for individuals and businesses… Mr. Obama on Wednesday 'will talk about the merits of the legislation, mainly about the costs of doing nothing versus the cost of doing something and what this will accomplish,' said his chief of staff, Rahm Emanuel." 

    "Obama will discuss both the 'process and policy' of his plan during a speech that he will deliver somewhere in the Washington, D.C., area, White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs said Monday," Roll Call adds. "Gibbs said Obama has 'absolutely' been involved in crafting a final proposal since last week's bipartisan health care summit. He said Obama will post his revised plan -- which will not be in legislative form and which will be smaller than the House bill -- on the White House Web site that day." 

    Obama's Organizing for America is running a full-page ad in USA Today pledging support for members of Congress who vote for health reform. OFA says it's pledging "over 8 million hours to support members of Congress who fight for real health reform."

    Palace intrigue, courtesy of the Washington Post: "Rahm Emanuel is officially a Washington caricature. He's the town's resident leviathan, a bullying, bruising White House chief of staff who is a prime target for the failings of the Obama administration. But a contrarian narrative is emerging: Emanuel is a force of political reason within the White House and could have helped the administration avoid its current bind if the president had heeded his advice on some of the most sensitive subjects of the year: health-care reform, jobs and trying alleged terrorists in civilian courts."

    "The right to bear arms is back before the Supreme Court. This time the focus is on handgun bans in Chicago and one of its suburbs," AP writes. "The justices were hearing arguments Tuesday in a case that asks them to extend their 2008 decision striking down a Washington, D.C., gun ban to state and local laws."

  • Congress: Mr. Gridlock?

    Roll Call on Bunning's filibuster: "By blocking a short-term extension of unemployment and health insurance benefits, highway funding and Medicare payments to doctors, Bunning has unwittingly given Democrats measurable evidence that the much-maligned Republican filibuster is the real reason for Washington's gridlock."  
     
    The New York Daily News' headline on Sen. Jim Bunning's hold on unemployment benefits: "Bird-flipping Kentucky Sen. Jim Bunning blocking checks to 8,000 unemployed New Yorkers."  
     
    Is it only a matter of time for Charlie Rangel? House Republicans are renewing their drive to force embattled Ways and Means Chairman Charlie Rangel (D-N.Y.) to surrender his gavel in the wake of his ethics wrist slap last week," Roll Call says. "And with politically vulnerable Democrats starting to peel off and join the call, top party strategists are wondering how long the Harlem Democrat can maintain his perch atop the tax-writing panel."  
     
    "Two politically vulnerable Democrats on Monday called for Rep. Charles Rangel to step down as Ways and Means Committee chairman," The Hill notes. "Reps. Betty Sutton (Ohio) and Harry Mitchell (Ariz.) have joined the ranks of Democrats calling for the New York Democrat to relinquish his gavel in the wake of the ethics committee finding that Rangel violated House rules."  
     
    More power to the Fed? "Sens. Chris Dodd (D-Conn.) and Bob Corker (R-Tenn.) are in talks about creating a new consumer financial protection office in the Federal Reserve to attempt to overcome partisan gridlock that is holding up a wide-ranging financial overhaul plan," The Hill reports. "Several sources familiar with the talks said the two senators have not yet inked a final deal and that they are still working through final language." 

  • GOP watch: Romney vs. populism

    The Boston Globe on Mitt Romney's new book, which comes out today: "As Mitt Romney sets out this week to promote his new book, 'No Apology,' he is also auditioning for a rapidly disappearing role in American politics: a politician who is speaking out against the 'temptations of populism.'"
     
    He told the Globe in an interview, "The populism I'm referring to is, if you will, demonizing certain members of society: going after businesspeople, going after Wall Street, going after people who are highly educated, people who are CEOs. That kind of 'All of our problems are due to that group' is something that is unproductive."
     
    More: "The former Massachusetts governor and highly successful businessman says his critique of populist politics applies to both President Obama, who is battling bankers over Wall Street rules, and Republican leaders who have courted the 'tea party'' movement by turning their anger on corporate leaders along with government."  
     
    The Globe's Issenberg writes, "A prominent Washington journalist and former Globe reporter is among the many advisers and political experts who helped Mitt Romney write 'No Apologies,' according to the book's acknowledgments… Easton, a former Globe deputy Washington bureau chief and author of several political books, is Washington bureau chief for Fortune and a regular analyst for Fox News. She is married to Russ Schriefer, a Republican media consultant who worked on Romney's 2008 campaign." 

  • The midterms: Ford tough

    CALIFORNIA: Republican gubernatorial candidate Steve Poizner releases his first TV spot today, "painting himself as the race's true conservative and dissing his Republican rival Meg Whitman," the L.A. Times reports.

    The New York Times' Nagourney parachutes into Barbara Boxer's re-election bid. "Early polls in California suggest that Sen. Barbara Boxer is facing what could be the toughest election of her career," he writes. "Her difficulties in a state that has for 20 years proved reliably Democratic in national elections suggests how the pendulum has swung against Democrats in just a year."

    ILLINOIS: The campaign of Senate candidate Alexi Giannoulias yesterday called Mark Kirk's criticism of Giannoulias' involvement with his family back "outlandish." Yesterday, Kirk said Giannoulias "bears direct responsibility for reckless loans that could bankrupt the Broadway Bank," the Chicago Tribune reported.  
     
    Kirk said of Giannoulias: "Alexi Giannoulias engaged in the same kind of reckless lending that brought our U.S. economy to its knees," Kirk said. 

    NEW YORK: In a New York Times op-ed today, former Rep. Harold Ford explains why he will not be running for Senate: "I've examined this race in every possible way, and I keep returning to the same fundamental conclusion: If I run, the likely result would be a brutal and highly negative Democratic primary -- a primary where the winner emerges weakened and the Republican strengthened."  
     
    "Gillibrand has been widely criticized for a lackluster performance in the Senate and has had weak approval ratings in recent polls," the New York Post writes. "But Ford failed to catch on with many Democratic leaders. He conducted a poll less than a week ago to measure his support. It was believed to have shown a difficult path to the nomination for Ford -- who received massive Wall Street compensation and voted twice for a constitutional ban on gay marriage, two problematic issues." 

    "In an explosive development that puts Gov. Paterson at the center of an alleged cover-up, the governor instructed two female state workers to contact the woman involved in a domestic-violence case against his closest aide -- even enlisting one of them to ask the victim to downplay it, sources told The [New York] Post last night. Paterson instructed his press secretary, Marissa Shorenstein -- who met with probers from Attorney General Andrew Cuomo's office yesterday -- to phone Sherr-una Booker just as the media was preparing to unleash a damning piece on Booker's ex, troubled longtime Paterson pal David Johnson, one source said."  
     
    The New York Daily News: "Gov Paterson personally directed two female staffers to reach out to a domestic violence victim who was pointing the finger at his right-hand man."

    SOUTH CAROLINA: "Americans for Job Security has launched an ad attacking GOP gubernatorial candidate Gresham Barrett for his support of the bank bailout in 2008 and various earmark requests," the Charleston City Paper reports.

    TEXAS: The AP previews today's Texas primary. Gov. Rick "Perry, the state's longest-serving governor, wants an unprecedented third full four-year term. [Sen. Kay Bailey] Hutchison argues he's trying to stay too long and has grown arrogant in office. Medina calls herself the best alternative to establishment candidates. Perry has pushed an anti-Washington message and talked up Texas as having one of the nation's best economies, something he says he helped bring about."  
     
    Politico's Martin says Perry's "success against the once seemingly formidable Hutchison illustrates both the political opportunity and danger at the moment for Republicans. The Perry message, in which the federal government wants to redistribute wealth and foist a radical agenda on states, plainly resonates among right-leaning voters who don't just oppose Obama but are downright afraid of him. Already, White is training his fire at Perry and making the case that the Republican has hurt himself with swing voters by moving to the right to dispatch Hutchison. It's a view held by some Hutchison supporters, as well."

    Roll Call looks at the Texas primary -- not just at the top of the ticket -- as a test of Tea Party strength: "The loose confederation of anti-government and anti-tax activists is aiming to wield greater influence in the fall elections, and it also hopes to influence lower-profile primary challenges against sitting Members. In Texas today, 14 of 32 incumbents in the delegation face primary challenges, including 11 of 20 Republicans. Though none of the 14 is expected to lose or even be forced into a runoff next month, Texas does have a more libertarian and anti-establishment streak than most states. A large protest vote against incumbents could be a harbinger of bigger anti-incumbent sentiment in the fall elections." 
     
    The Hill notes of Kay Bailey Hutchison's troubles and others going forward this cycle: "If you want to run for higher office, the worst thing to put on your campaign mail might be the word 'congressman.'"

  • Moderation, please

    From NBC's Mark Murray, Chuck Todd and Domenico Montanaro
    The Drudge Report has a provocative photo and link to a story on President Obama's recent physical exam. It shows Obama drinking a beer at a basketball game with this headline: "PAPER: Obama doctors recommend 'moderation of alcohol intake'..." And it links to a Guardian newspaper account of Obama's physical, which contains this final line: "The doctors also recommended 'moderation of alcohol intake.'"

    But when you read the actual report, it's clear that this alcohol recommendation is akin to your dentist telling you to floss daily and brush your teeth twice a day.

    Recommendations: Follow-up colorectal cancer screening is recommended in 5 years for routine colon cancer screening. Continue smoking cessation efforts, a daily exercise program, healthy diet, moderation in alcohol intake, periodic dental care, and remain up-to-date with recommended immunizations. Continue modified exercise regimen, and lower extremity muscle strengthening program, for occasional left patella-femoral pain secondary to chronic tendonitis. Recommend dietary modification to reduce LDL cholesterol below 130.

    Here's a link to the entire doctor's report.

  • The left immediately embraces Halter

    From NBC's Mark Murray
    Democrats have been making the point that this year's ideologically charged GOP primaries (Crist vs. Rubio in Florida, McCain vs. Hayworth in Arizona, Grayson vs. Paul in Kentucky, and the challenge Robert Bennett will get in Utah) will end up minimizing GOP gains in November.

    But with Arkansas Lt. Gov. Bill Halter (D) challenging incumbent Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D), Democrats now have an ideologically charged primary of their own.

    While Arlen Specter vs. Joe Sestak in Pennsylvania and Michael Bennet vs. Andrew Romanoff in Colorado are competitive Democratic primaries, they haven't featured the same level of involvement from the left that we're now seeing in the Lincoln-vs.-Halter race.

    Consider this immediate endorsement that Halter received from MoveOn:

    "Blanche Lincoln is one of the worst corporate Democrats in Washington. That's why 92 percent of Arkansas MoveOn members voted to support Bill Halter over Blanche Lincoln in a primary election. Instead of fighting for the health care reform Arkansas families desperately need, she took nearly a million ($866,000) from Big Insurance and HMO interests and then played a leading role in opposing the public health insurance option. She took $1.3 million from Wall Street banks and helped kill legislation that would've allowed struggling homeowners to stay in their homes.  And she sponsored a bill to roll back the Clean Air Act to protect corporate profits. With Bill Halter, our Arkansas members see a candidate who will stand up to special interests.  Arkansans deserve someone who'll fight for them, not Wall Street."

    Here's FireDogLake's Jane Hamsher:

    Blanche Lincoln stands for everything that's wrong with both parties: her primary loyalty is to her DC cohorts and her corporate donors, and she thinks it's her job to pick the taxpayer pocket on their behalf. As the head of the Agriculture Committee and a member of the Finance Committee, Lincoln has stood at the front of the line when it comes to repaying her corporate donors with political favors. She has personally been the recipient of big ag subsidies, and her continued tenure as Chairman of the Senate Agriculture Committee would mean the death of sustainable agriculture for a generation. She's the prime target for an accountability campaign.

    Some in the media will try to paint this as a "purge" of "moderates" from the Democratic party. It's not. Blanche Lincoln is a radical corporatist. That's not the "center" of anything. Conservatives and liberals alike are tired of watching Senators like Lincoln raise millions in campaign cash and vote for one bailout after another, as if there's no connection.

    And here's Markos Moulitsas urging supporters to raise money for Halter:

    Today, we're looking for 1,000 charter contributors to the Halter campaign, so if you're angry at our corrupt, corporate-owned government, strike a blow by helping rid the Senate of one of its worst corporatists.

  • More on Biden and the parliamentarian

    From NBC's Ken Strickland
    Former parliamentarian Dove is technically correct when he says Vice President Biden, in his capacity as president of the Senate, could overrule the parliamentarian. But the chance of that happening is virtually none.

    Dove himself says no vice president has played an active role in the Senate since Humphrey. And here's a historic context as to why as illustrated in Robert Caro bio on LBJ:

    After LBJ became VP, when wanted to come back to the Senate and essentially run the Democratic caucus as he had as when he was Senate Majority Leader.

    Caro wrote, "[Senator Clint] Anderson said, the Vice President was an official of the Executive Branch. Selection of a member of that branch to preside over a senatorial body would not only shatter the principle of separation of powers but would also make the Senate 'look ridiculous.' "

    You might also remember that Senate Republicans flirted with a similar move to end the judicial showdown during Bill Frist's reign as majority leader. But a number of senior Republican senators objected.

  • Obama announces failing schools grants

    From NBC's Athena Jones
    President Obama announced $900 million in grants, part of his 2011 budget, to help turn around the nation's lowest-performing schools.

    While health care and the economy have dominated much of the policy talk in the capital this past year, education reform has been a recurring focus for Obama since the campaign and one his administration wants to draw more attention to.

    The president often speaks about the importance of having a highly educated workforce to compete globally in the 21st century "knowledge economy." By 2020, Obama wants America to have the highest proportion of college graduates in the world.

    "High school dropouts are more likely to be teen parents, more likely to commit crime, more likely to rely on public assistance, more likely to lead shattered lives," the president told the crowd gathered in the U.S. Chamber of Commerce's Hall of Flags. "What's more, they cost our economy hundreds of billions of dollars over the course of a lifetime in lower wages and higher public expenses."

    The event was hosted by America's Promise Alliance, an organization founded by Former Secretary of State Colin Powell. He and his wife Alma also spoke at the event.

    "The education crisis is the civil rights issue of our generation," read the program for the event. "We must come together for a more equitable, hopeful, and prosperous future for every child and for our nation."

    The president noted that more than a million students -- nearly a third -- do not finish high school in the U.S. and stressed the particularly high dropout rates among blacks and Hispanic.

    Calling teaching "one of the most important jobs that we have in this country," Obama said failing schools must be held accountable, with poorly performing ones closed, principals replaced or faculty fired, as a school committee voted to do last week at a failing Rhode Island high school where only 7 percent of its 11th-graders were deemed proficient in math in 2009.

    The $900 million would go to 5,000 of the nation's lowest-performing schools over the next five years to help improve student achievement. The president's budget also includes a $100-million program aimed at increasing college-level, dual-credit and other accelerated courses in schools, allowing students to earn a high-school diploma and an associate's degree simultaneously.

    "This is a problem we cannot afford to accept, and we cannot afford to ignore," Obama said. "The stakes are too high -- for our children, for our economy, and for our country. It's time for all of us to come together -- parents, students, principals and teachers, business leaders and elected officials from across the political spectrum -- to end America's dropout crisis."

  • Biden rules

    From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
    Vice President Joe Biden
    could play a bigger role when it comes to the health-care process going forward than most people previously understood.

    Former Senate parliamentarian of 37 years Robert Dove said on MSNBC's The Daily Rundown that the vice president, who also functions as the president of the Senate, can override the parliamentarian when it comes to what qualifies under reconciliation.

    "The parliamentarian only can advise," Dove said. "It is the vice president who rules."

    Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

    It is widely understood that the parliamentarian would rule whether or not items under reconciliation are germaine to the budget. It wasn't always the case that items under reconciliation had to pertain to the budget. But it had been used so often to defeat filibusters, Dove said, that in the 1980s Sen. Robert Byrd (D-WV) instituted a the budget rule. It is now known as the Byrd Rule. The parliamentarian currently is Alan Frumin.

    Not since Hubert Humphrey, Dove said, has there been a vice president played such a powerful role. But as NBC's Chuck Todd, who co-hosts the show, pointed out, perhaps not since Humphrey has the U.S. seen a vice president as comfortable with the rules of the Senate as Biden. 

    "That's why I brought this up," Dove said. "Yes. Humphrey had been the majority whip. He had been in the Senate since 1948. He felt very comfortable playing an important role. And it's quite possible that Vice President Biden [would]."

    On the use of reconciliation, Dove said that it "has been used a lot. I would never use the term illegitimate when it comes to reconciliation. ... It has been used for very large, major bills. It is a way of getting around the problem of the Senate filibuster."

    Some of the "fixes" Democrats would like to pass, however, might not be available because of the Byrd Rule. And it's not cut and dry what would qualify.

    For example, Dove said, in 1995, under a large reconciliation bill, one item was not allowing any federal funding for abortions. While the item did score by the Congressional Budget Office and would have saved the government money, Dove disallowed it, because he found that the intent of its inclusion wasn't a budgetary one, but for policy.

    Here's a transcript of the exchange:

    ROBERT DOVE: Ultimately, it's the vice president of the United States, but I can tell you I have...

    CHUCK TODD: Wait a minute, explain that.

    SAVANNAH GUTHRIE: Yeah, what does that mean?

    DOVE: It is the decision of the vice president whether or not to play a role here.

    TODD: He can play president of the Senate.

    DOVE: Absolutely. And I have seen vice presidents play that role in other, very important situations. Hubert Humphrey...

    GUTHRIE: So the vice president could overrule the parliamentarian?

    DOVE: Oh, absolutely. The parliamentarian only can advise. It is the vice president who rules. But I will say that not since Hubert Humphrey have I seen a vice president try to play that kind of role in the Senate.

    TODD: But not since Hubert Humphrey have we had a vice president this familiar with Senate rules as this vice president in Joe Biden.

    DOVE: That's why I brought this up. Yes. Humphrey had been the majority whip. He had been in the Senate since 1948.

    TODD: He knew that place.

    DOVE: He felt very comfortable playing an important role. And it's quite possible that Vice President Biden...

  • First thoughts: Dems pick up 2 votes?

    Dems might pick up two health-care votes today (with Nathan Deal's retirement in Georgia and Blanche Lincoln's primary challenge… It's another busy week in politics -- TX Gov primary on Tuesday, Mitt Romney's book on Tuesday, Obama in Georgia on Tuesday, and jobs numbers on Friday… Mission accomplished in Iraq?... Can the White House make political hay out of Bunning's obstruction?... And Baron Hill says no to a Senate bid, meaning that Brad Ellsworth more than likely will be the Dem nominee in Indiana.

    From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
    *** Dems pick up two votes? Are Democrats having their best health-care day in quite some time? Oddly enough, maybe. Today, it appears they've picked up two votes for THEIR effort to pass health-care. First, Rep. Nathan Deal (R) announces his resignation today to concentrate on his bid for Georgia governor. And with Deal's retirement, that means there are 431 House members, so the magic number to pass health care in the House is now 216 votes, down from last week's 217. Second, in Arkansas, Lt. Gov. Bill Halter (D) today announced he's launching a primary challenge against Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D). While Arkansas isn't Pennsylvania -- where Joe Sestak's primary has pushed Arlen Specter to the left -- Halter's challenge probably ensures that Lincoln ends up voting for reconciliation, assuming that Lincoln wants to remain in the Senate. We have more on the Deal and Halter news below…

    *** Another busy week: Fasten your seatbelts for another busy week in politics. Today, President Obama gives a speech in DC on education at an event hosted by Colin Powell's America's Promise Alliance (an issue that does have bipartisan support, but the question of funding is a real sticking point). On Tuesday, there's the Texas gubernatorial primary, the release of Mitt Romney's new book, Sarah Palin's appearance on "Leno," and Obama heading to Georgia to talk about the economy. On Wednesday, the president is expected to make remarks on how he hopes Congress proceeds on health care. And on Friday, we'll see new monthly job numbers from the Labor Department (which the winter storms and the days off of work for so many will make the numbers look worse than expected), while GOP Sen. Scott Brown campaigns for John McCain in Arizona.   

    *** Mission accomplished? And on Sunday, Iraq's parliamentary elections will take place. Pegged to those elections, the latest issue of Newsweek runs a provocative cover story with this headline: "Victory at Last: The Emergence of a Democratic Iraq." From the story: "[George W.] Bush's rhetoric about democracy came to sound as bitterly ironic as his pumped-up appearance on an aircraft carrier a few months earlier, in front of an enormous banner that declared MISSION ACCOMPLISHED. And yet it has to be said and it should be understood—now, almost seven hellish years later—that something that looks mighty like democracy is emerging in Iraq. And while it may not be a beacon of inspiration to the region, it most certainly is a watershed event that could come to represent a whole new era in the history of the massively undemocratic Middle East." The New York Times notes, however, that Prime Minister's Nuri al-Maliki's might have a difficult time winning a majority on March 7.

    *** Shades of 1995-1996? The Obama White House is oddly happy about stories like this one: "Two thousand federal transportation workers will be furloughed without pay on Monday, and the Obama administration said they have a Kentucky senator to blame for it… The furloughs and freeze on payments were the result of a decision last week by Republican Sen. Jim Bunning to block passage of legislation that would have extended federal highway and transit programs," as well as unemployment benefits. The more the GOP is seen as actively obstructing, the better shot the White House thinks it can make the case to the American public that the Republicans aren't interested in governing. By the way, the AP notes that last year saw a Senate record of 112 cloture votes (i.e., filibusters). And get this: "In the first two months of 2010, the number already exceeds 40."

    *** 'Cause I gotta have faith: With Democrats and Republicans unable to come together on health care -- let alone on this transportation/unemployment benefits spending -- the AP runs a story noting a favorite First Read topic that we've tracked for years now: the loss of faith in ALL institutions (not just politics, but business, sports, religion, universities, etc). "What does it mean if people have lost faith in the government to solve the most pressing issues, lost faith in companies to deliver workable products -- and lost faith in the belief that either will take responsibility for failure?" the AP asks. "Short term, the public's distrust doesn't bode well for any politician up for election this fall, particularly Democrats who control Congress… It may not bode well for companies such as Toyota that are seeking to restore credibility; consumers are only loyal to a point… Long term, such a lack of confidence in the nation's biggest institutions could turn society's skepticism to debilitating cynicism. It could spread animosity throughout society, crimping America's historic optimism, fueling incivility -- if not paranoia -- among the people and encouraging disrespect of authorities of all types, at all levels."

    *** Not a good time to be a member of Congress running for governor: It's one day until the GOP gubernatorial primary in Texas. And over the weekend, the Washington Post's Dan Balz had a great piece explaining Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison's (R) troubles against incumbent Gov. Rick Perry (R). "At a time of rising anger toward Washington, Perry has hung Hutchison's service in the nation's capital around her neck. His campaign calls her 'Kay Bailout' for her support of the financial industry rescue. He has attacked her for the earmark projects she has secured for Texas, which he describes as symptomatic of out-of-control spending in Washington. 'He definitely has made it more difficult for me,' [Hutchison] said aboard her campaign bus. 'I've protected Texas. I've brought Texas taxpayer dollars back to Texas very successfully, and I've voted for Texas values. I didn't think that anyone could turn my success in producing results for Texas into a negative.'" By the way, there are a number of sitting members of Congress trying to become governor (Brownback in KS, Hoekstra in MI, Deal in GA, etc). What will opponents and those running learn from this potentially disastrous showing by Hutchison?

    *** Blanche Lincoln gets primary challenge: With Arkansas' filing deadline a week from today, Lt. Gov. Bill Halter (D) announced that he will challenge Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) in a Democratic primary. "I'm going to spend the rest of today phoning friends, family and supporters, and making a courtesy call to Sen. Blanche Lincoln," Halter said in a press release. "I look forward to joining my wife and father tomorrow morning at the state capitol where we'll make official my campaign to put Arkansans first." Halter also has this announcement video. The question is whether Lincoln -- whose poll numbers are abysmal -- decides not to seek re-election with the filing deadline next week. Before this news, it was pretty clear she was focused on running. Assuming she does stay in, this sets up an odd primary fight between the progressive wing of the party and the White House. By the way, this also could be a test of Bill Clinton's sway, if he chooses to engage; something tells us he'd be itching for this fight.

    *** More midterm news: In Georgia, Rep. John Linder (R) announced that he won't be seeking re-election; his district is a conservative one, where McCain got 60% of the vote in 2008… Also in Georgia, Rep. Nathan Deal (R) announced he's resigning his House seat to focus on his gubernatorial bid… In Indiana, Rep. Baron Hill (D) said he wouldn't run for the Senate, which means that Rep. Brad Ellsworth is going to be the Dem nominee… In Michigan, an EPIC-MRA poll shows Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R) leading the Republican gubernatorial race with 27%, followed by 21% for Mike Cox (R) and Rick Snyder at 12%, per Taegan Goddard… And in Pennsylvania, a new Franklin and Marshall poll finds Sen. Arlen Specter (D) leading primary challenger Joe Sestak (D), 33% to 16%, while Specter trails Pat Toomey (R) by 10 points in a general election match-up.

    Countdown to TX primary: 1 day
    Countdown to AR filing deadline: 7 days
    Countdown to OR, PA filing deadlines: 8 days
    Countdown to CA, NV filing deadlines: 11 days
    Countdown to IA, UT filing deadlines: 18 days
    Countdown to Election Day 2010: 246 days

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  • Obama agenda: Beauty school dropout..

    "President Barack Obama will announce Monday a national effort to reduce the high school dropout rate and better prepare students for successful college careers," The Hill writes. "The administration has committed $3.5 billion to fund changes in persistently low-performing schools around the country, with priority given to high schools with graduation rates below 60 percent."

    "As President Obama begins making final decisions on a broad new nuclear strategy for the United States, senior aides say he will permanently reduce America's arsenal by thousands of weapons. But the administration has rejected proposals that the United States declare it would never be the first to use nuclear weapons," the New York Times says. "Mr. Obama's new strategy — which would annul or reverse several initiatives by the Bush administration — will be contained in a nearly completed document called the Nuclear Posture Review, which all presidents undertake. Aides said Secretary of Defense Robert M. Gates will present Mr. Obama with several options on Monday to address unresolved issues in that document, which have been hotly debated within the administration."

    "The White House appointed a Washington insider on Saturday to replace Desirée Rogers, President Obama's social secretary who has announced that she will be leaving the post soon," Reuters writes. "The new social secretary, Julianna Smoot, was finance director of Mr. Obama's presidential campaign and has worked for four senators. She is currently chief of staff to Ron Kirk, the United States trade representative."

    Was his doctor's evaluation a sign that Obama is still smoking or at least struggling to quit?

    The New York Times: "President Obama 'is in excellent health' and likely to remain able to carry out his duties for the rest of his term, his doctor said Sunday after completing Mr. Obama's first routine medical checkup since he took office. But Mr. Obama, 48, continues to struggle to stop his 30-year smoking habit and needs to modify his diet, said Dr. Jeffrey Kuhlman, a Navy captain who led the medical team that performed Mr. Obama's physical."

  • Congress: Does she have the votes?

    Per the New York Times, "Speaker Nancy Pelosi says she is confident she will be able to get the votes needed to pass sweeping health care legislation in the House, even if it threatens the political careers of some members of her party."

    More: 'Ms. Pelosi was asked what she would say to House Democrats who were 'in real fear of losing their seats in November if they support you now.' 'Our members, every one of them, wants health care,' Ms. Pelosi said. 'They know that this will take courage. It took courage to pass Social Security. It took courage to pass Medicare. And many of the same forces that were at work decades ago are at work again against this bill.' 'But,' Ms. Pelosi continued, 'the American people need it. Why are we here? We're not here just to self-perpetuate our service in Congress. We're here to do the job for the American people, to get them results that give them not only health security, but economic security.'"

    Meanwhile… Only in Washington can reconciliation push people farther apart, NBC's Andrew Rafferty notes. Republicans John McCain and Eric Cantor appeared on "Meet the Press" yesterday to continue their call for Democrats to start over on a health-care bill and not use reconciliation to pass the legislation through the Senate. Cantor predicted Democrats would lose their majority in the House if "Speaker Pelosi rams this bill through the House using reconciliation," and McCain pushed his argument that the parliamentary maneuver was not meant to pass major changes in policy. However, it is the GOP that has taken heat for their history of finding ways to avoid a filibuster.  McCain has on nine occasions voted for legislation that was passed through reconciliation.  He said on Sunday, "Yes, I have voted for them, but I objected strenuously to us changing the rules of the Senate so that 51 votes would prevail."

    Roll Call: "The games are over. With President Barack Obama's bipartisan health care summit now a thing of the past, House Democratic leaders are ready to play hardball and charge forward on reform in the way that they want to: by taking full advantage of their majority." But the House and Senate are still playing this game of which comes first.

    The Hill: "The healthcare summit turned out to be Groundhog Day for Democrats, who have six more weeks of healthcare reform if they are to meet their latest self-imposed deadline. It won't be easy."

    At 1:00 pm ET, House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer gives a speech on fiscal responsibility at the Brooking Institution. "To return our budget to balance, President Obama is creating a bipartisan fiscal commission. Along with Speaker Pelosi and Majority Leader Reid, I've pledged that its recommendations will get an up-or-down vote in Congress," Hoyer is expected to say, per excerpts. "Given the seriousness of our situation, the commission must come to a consensus, and Congress must act on its proposals at the end of the year… It seems to me that the only solution that can win the support of both parties is a balanced approach: one that cuts some spending and raises some revenue while avoiding extremes in either direction. A balanced approach would spread the effects of change across American society."

    Hoyer will add, "Our willingness to put the welfare of our children ahead of our own -- to plant seeds for them whose fruit we may never taste -- is a powerful test of our character."

    Blame the staff? The New York Post reports, "Rep. Charles Rangel was made aware that organizers of the Caribbean junkets he attended were grubbing for freebie plane tickets from corporate sponsors, according to a report from the House Ethics Committee. In a letter dated April 23, 2007, and carbon-copied to Rangel, the head of the Carib News Foundation solicited American Airlines to donate 90 round-trip first-class and coach tickets to cover flights to its conference that year in Antigua and Barbuda. Rangel attended that junket and one in 2008. The letter and an interview with Karl Rodney, CEO of the Carib News Foundation, were included in the House Ethics Committee report, which concluded that the Harlem congressman broke congressional rules by accepting junkets bankrolled by corporate sponsors."

  • GOP watch: Newt on Obama

    Former Republican House Speaker Newt Gingrich suggested that an overly partisan, poorly articulated agenda had pulled President Obama down from the peak of public approval to the point where his party may lose its majority status in Congress.
     
    Speaking at a pen-and-pad discussion with reporters last week, Gingrich, who led the 1994 "Republican revolution" in which the GOP regained the majority midway through President Clinton's first term, said that the spirit of change in which Obama was elected gave him the opportunity to "build out from that in a genuinely bipartisan way," risking the frustration of his party's leaders in the process.
     
    Rather, he continued, Obama and congressional Democrats chose to embark on a strictly partisan agenda, setting a benchmark, he said, with "the act of passing a $787 billion [stimulus] bill with no elected official."

  • The midterms: Lights go out in GA

    Stu Rothenberg throws cold water on Rasmussen, the hype around people being offered jobs in the White House so they don't run and the Tea Party candidate in Nevada. On the White House supposedly having offered Joe Sestak a job not to run against Arlen Specter: "What's the big deal? This kind of thing happens all of the time. There is nothing immoral or unethical about it. It's politics. The White House embraced Sen. Arlen Specter (D-Pa.) when he switched parties, and now they are trying to clear the primary field for him. As news goes, it's interesting but hardly shocking or outrageous. But it was treated as a big deal."

    GEORGIA: "U.S. Rep. John Linder, the conservative Republican who has represented much of Gwinnett and surrounding counties for nearly two decades, abruptly announced on Saturday he will not seek re-election in November, immediately setting off a scramble for his congressional seat," the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported, adding that among the rumored replacements is Atlanta Braves pitcher John Smoltz.

    MLB.com, though reported: "Atlanta-Journal Constitution political insider Jim Galloway reported on Saturday that Republicans are thinking about approaching Smoltz to run for the congressional seat that will be vacated when U.S. Rep. John Linder retires at the end of his current term. 'This is not in my plans,' Smoltz replied via a text message on Sunday morning.'" Smoltz apparently assisted with the campaigns of Rep. Tom Price and Sen. Saxby Chambliss.

    And Rep. Nathan Deal is reportedly resigning today to focus on his run for governor. That would trigger a special election for his GA-9 seat. 
     
    Linder and Deal were both first elected in 1992 and haven't won with less than 64% since 1996. Bush and McCain won both of their districts handily.

    INDIANA: "Rep. Baron Hill (D-Ind.) announced Saturday that he will not seek the seat of retiring Sen. Evan Bayh (D), clearing the way for Rep. Brad Ellsworth to be the Democratic standard-bearer in November," Roll Call writes. Hill was overseas when Evan Bayh decided not to run for re-election. Despite expressing interest when he came back, Ellsworth already threw his hat in the ring. Hill gave his support to Ellsworth.

    MASSACHUSETTS: "Joseph P. Kennedy III said yesterday that he will not run for Congress this year, ending feverish speculation that the young Cape Cod prosecutor would seek the 10th District seat if Representative William Delahunt retires," the Boston Globe says.

    MICHIGAN: "An EPIC-MRA poll in Michigan shows Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R) leading the Republican gubernatorial race with 27%, followed by 21% for Mike Cox (R) and Rick Snyder at 12%," Taegan Goddard reports.

    NEW YORK: Enter Andrew Cuomo: "Now that Gov. David Paterson has abandoned his campaign all those assumptions about Mr. Cuomo -- not to mention his record -- will be scrutinized and challenged, if and when he does what everyone expects he will in a matter of weeks: quickly wrap up his investigation of Mr. Paterson and officially enter the race," the New York Times reports. 
     
    However, the New York Daily News' Benjamin writes, "Albany's dysfunction will keep Attorney General Andrew Cuomo's campaign for governor on ice for the foreseeable future. A source close to Cuomo confirmed the AG will not announce his candidacy as long as his investigations into both Gov. Paterson and Senate Majority Leader Pedro Espada Jr. (D-Bronx) are open. It could take more than a month for the two cases to be resolved." 
     
    "A day after Paterson declared an end to his campaign, [Republican Rick] Lazio, while in Niagara Falls, wasted no time in getting the race with Cuomo started, calling on him to stop hiding and start providing New York with his views and ideas," The Buffalo News reports. "'I think the time is now for people to ask the tough questions,' Lazio said."

    PENNSYLVANIA: A new Franklin and Marshall poll shows Sen. Arlen Specter leading challenger Joe Sestak 33% to 16%, while in a general election matchup, Specter is 10 points behind Republican Pat Toomey, 34% to 44%, while Sestak trails Toomey 20% to 38%.

    TEXAS: "After more than a year of bare-knuckle combat between Gov. Rick Perry and U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison before Tuesday's Republican gubernatorial primary, the bitterness of their fight has some experts wondering whether it could undercut Republican efforts to reunite against the Democratic nominee in the fall," the Fort Worth Star-Telegram writes. 
     
    And channeling First Read, the Washington Post's Cillizza looks at the possibility that Bill White (D) could give Perry (R) a run for his money in November.

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