White House pursues inside-outside strategy on health care… Rahm cites "progress" after meeting last night on Capitol Hill… House Democrats and Republicans try to one-up each other on earmarks… Ensign is back in the news, and it's worth asking -- is this news worse than Rangel's or Massa's?... Dan Senor seriously considering NY Senate bid… Conflicting robo-polls in Colorado…

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** Inside and outside: Exactly one week until the White House's self-imposed deadline for the House to pass the Senate health-care bill -- before President Obama travels overseas -- the White House is pursuing an inside-outside strategy. Outside, Obama yesterday was stumping for reform in the St. Louis area, and we've learned that he plans to hit Cleveland on Monday (what say you, Dennis Kucinich?). Inside, White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel last night was meeting with House and Senate leaders to resolve outstanding issues. "I feel like we made a lot of progress towards achieving the goal of health-care reform," Emanuel said after the meeting, per NBC's Luke Russert. "Everybody is working diligently with the sense that we right now have, that we see the goal line and we know where we have to go." As we understand it, the biggest UNRESOLVED issue remains abortion. Still, the fact that we're seeing Rahm and not just his deputies on the Hill means that we're close to a vote.

*** Health-care air war heating up: With the finish line apparently in sight on health care, the TV air war is heating up. A couple of days ago, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce went up with an ad arguing that Democrats in Congress are trying to "use special rules" to "ram through their same trillion-dollar health-care bill… Tell Congress: Stop this health-care bill we can't afford to pay." Meanwhile, America's Health Insurance Plans (AHIP) has a TV ad contending that health insurers aren't to blame for rising costs. And now, Greg Sargent reports that organized labor and other Dem-leaning groups supporting health care plan to go up with their own TV ads to provide cover for Democrats who are considering voting for the Senate bill.

*** John McCain wins? At the first presidential debate between Obama and McCain, Obama had this pretty effective rebuttal to McCain's intense focus on earmarks. "[L]et's be clear: Earmarks account for $18 billion in last year's budget. Sen. McCain is proposing -- and this is a fundamental difference between us -- $300 billion in tax cuts." Translation: Earmarks like that infamous "Bridge to Nowhere" are problems, but are far down the list. Yet now we're seeing Democrats and Republicans fighting over who's tougher on earmarks. Yesterday, the House Democrats banned earmarks to private industry. Meanwhile, House Republicans today will hold a press conference where they will announce a party-wide moratorium on all earmarks. We ask again: Does the president regret not vetoing that supplemental bill from early '09, which had a plethora of earmarks in it? 

*** Obama's Day: At 11:15 am ET, Obama addresses the Export-Import Bank's annual conference… At 1:45 pm, he meets with members of the Congressional Black Caucus… At 3:00 pm, he talks immigration with Sens. Chuck Schumer (D) and Lindsey Graham (R)… At 3:45 pm, he meets with Secretary of State Clinton, who has amassed quite the operation at the State Department, according to the Washington Post… And at 6:20 pm, he meets with the Congressional Hispanic Caucus. 

*** Ensign's back in the news… : "Previously undisclosed e-mail messages turned over to the F.B.I. and Senate ethics investigators provide new evidence about Senator John Ensign's efforts to steer lobbying work to the embittered husband of his former mistress and could deepen his legal and political troubles," the New York Times says. "Mr. Ensign … suggested that a Las Vegas development firm hire the husband, Douglas Hampton, after it had sought the senator's help on several energy projects in 2008." Ensign's office responds: "Senator Ensign has stated clearly, he has not violated any law or Senate ethics rule. If Doug Hampton violated federal law or rules, Senator Ensign did not advise him to do so, did not suggest that he do so, and did not cooperate with his doing so." Question: When it comes to the allegations of what the senator himself did, isn't this story worse than Rangel's and Massa's, just not as "salacious"? 

*** … And Massa stays in the news: Speaking of Massa, the Washington Post reports that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's office was notified in October by then-Rep. Eric Massa's top aide of concerns about the New York Democrat's behavior, two congressional sources familiar with the matter said Wednesday night. Joe Racalto, Massa's chief of staff, was uneasy that Massa, 50, was living with several young, unmarried male staffers and using sexually explicit language with them, one source said. But what finally prompted him to call Pelosi's director of member services, the source said, was a lunch date that Massa made with a congressional aide in his 20s who worked in the office of Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.)." Pelosi's office tells NBC's Kelly O'Donnell that Pelosi did not know about actual allegations of harassment until February. Aides say Majority Leader Steny Hoyer's office was notified of allegations Feb. 8 and reported that to the Speaker's Office.

*** Hola, Senor: After being unable to get Rudy Giuliani, George Pataki, and most recently Mort Zuckerman to challenge Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D), New York Republicans are trying to get Dan Senor -- a private equity executive and former chief spokesman to Paul Bremer at the Coalition Provisional Authority in Iraq -- to enter the race. And Senor is seriously considering it, the New York Times reports. "The Republican leaders, who cautioned that they were not backing any single candidate, have told Mr. Senor that his deep ties in the party, expertise on national security and background as a businessman would make him a formidable candidate. His New York roots do not hurt, either: he was born in Utica, which could appeal to upstate voters wary of his Manhattan address." If Senor decides to run, it might be one of the biggest tests whether the Bush brand -- Bremer's Coalition Provisional Authority wasn't necessarily one of the bright spots in Iraq -- is still toxic or not. Then again, with Iraq appearing to finally turn around, are the initial Bush-era failures in Iraq ancient history? 

*** Robo-Cop: There are two robo-polls in Colorado's governor's race that reach two VERY different conclusions. One robo-poll has Democrat John Hickenlooper up by double digits. While the other one has Republican Scott McInnis up by six. It's a chief example why we have little confidence in these types of polls. We know so many number starved folks desperately want to look at even bad polls just to scratch an itch. But trust us: It's like "Raiders of the Lost Ark" -- if you look, eventually you'll burn your eyes out, and maybe even melt or have your entire brain turn to mush.

*** More midterm news: In California, the Meg Whitman press event that wasn't really a press event continues to get attention… And in Texas, "Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison hasn't announced whether she will resign, as she has said she would after the GOP gubernatorial primary, but that's not stopping most of those who want her U.S. Senate seat," including at least five Senate hopefuls who have already announced their intention to run, the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports.

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"President Obama slammed the health insurance industry and Republicans yesterday as the enemies of health care overhaul," the AP writes. "But the president's immediate roadblocks to achieving his top domestic priority are within his own Democratic Party, as congressional lawmakers remain unable to find a procedural and political path to final passage."

The New York Times: "President Obama continued his drive for a health care overhaul on Wednesday, ordering a crackdown on Medicare and Medicaid waste and fraud, while in Washington, House leaders said they hoped to have a completed bill to present to rank and file members Thursday morning." 

This is interesting: "As they push to finish health-care legislation by the end of the month, Democratic leaders in Congress are weighing whether to add another of President Obama's priorities to the package: a popular proposal to overhaul the federal student loan program. The move could clear the way for Obama to claim victory on two of his most significant domestic initiatives in a single signing ceremony. Administration officials and House leaders have pressed aggressively for the addition in recent days. But key senators are objecting to the move, arguing that political resistance in the Senate and the rapidly rising cost of the education measure could jeopardize efforts to push health-care reform to final passage. 'I think it threatens the health-care bill,' said Senate Budget Committee Chairman Kent Conrad (D-N.D.) 'It would threaten to sink them both.'" 

"A group of Hispanic lawmakers on Thursday will tell President Barack Obama that they may not vote for healthcare reform unless changes are made to the bill's immigration provisions," The Hill reports. On the policy: "The bill bans illegal immigrants from buying into the health-care system. Hispanic lawmakers "claim that while it may be politically popular in some parts of the country to ban illegal immigrants from using their own money to buy coverage, it is not good policy. Illegal immigrants will, one way or another, need medical attention in the United States, and it would be cheaper and more humane to provide them coverage if they pay for it. Otherwise, they will seek treatments in the nation's emergency rooms, effectively increasing medical costs."

And in advance of his meeting with the Congressional Black Caucus, Politico writes: "The 43-member caucus is fighting through one of the most difficult periods in its 39-year history, and some members and aides said they're getting far too little support from the nation's first black president -- a man they once believed would be their strongest champion. House Judiciary Committee Chairman John Conyers (D-Mich.) told POLITICO that White House officials are "not listening" to black lawmakers. Rep. Alcee Hastings (D-Fla.) said "there's not enough attention to poor people." 

The Boston Globe: "Small defense companies, energy firms, and other technology start-ups throughout New England could lose tens of millions of dollars a year because of a decision by House Democrats yesterday to abruptly halt budget earmarks for companies. The decision follows a House ethics probe into an alleged pay-to-play system in which investigators followed a trail of campaign contributions and linked them to earmarks -- a provision added to a bill that directs money to a specific project, in this case, a private company. Although the House Ethics Committee cleared members of specific wrongdoing, House leaders remained sensitive to the appearance of a rampant quid-pro-quo system that has stoked outrage around the country."

The New York Times adds, "House Democratic leaders on Wednesday banned budget earmarks to private industry, ending a practice that has steered billions of dollars in no-bid contracts to companies and set off corruption scandals. The ban is the most forceful step yet in a three-year effort in Congress to curb abuses in the use of earmarks, which allow individual lawmakers to award financing for pet projects to groups and businesses, many of them campaign donors."

I'll see your earmarks, and raise them… "A day after House Democrats announced a ban on earmarks for private companies, their Republican counterparts hope to dramatically up the ante with a unilateral prohibition on all targeted spending projects," Roll Call writes. "If approved, the Republican policy would restrict GOP lawmakers from sponsoring any earmarks at all -- broadening the Democratic ban to cover earmarks for nonprofit entities and tax and tariff breaks approved through the Ways and Means Committee."

The New York Daily News takes a look at how Massa lived on Capitol Hill. "Disgraced ex-Rep. Eric Massa insists he never sexually abused anyone, but he filled his Capitol Hill rowhouse with low-paid male staffers in an arrangement ripe for trouble. "It's like he had people trapped," said a Hill source. Sordid new details emerged yesterday of a pattern of behavior that went back to his 20 years as a naval officer, as ex-shipmates came forward to describe incidents of groping and perhaps worse…  In hindsight, Democratic insiders wondered about activities that before had just seemed odd. They said Massa hired a surprisingly large percentage of young gay men, and paid them so little that staffers were forced to live in the house with him… 'The guy's a freak,' a close friend of one embattled Massa aide told the Daily News."

(By the way, Rush Limbaugh made a racist joke about David Paterson and Eric Massa.)

The AP: "One is a former Democratic freshman little known outside his Corning-Olean-Pittsford, N.Y., district. The other, a 20-term Democratic kingpin from Harlem, is widely known to New Yorkers and anyone following tax legislation. But now, Republicans -- looking for any opening to regain control of the House -- are portraying newly resigned first-termer Eric Massa and veteran Charles Rangel as dual symbols of Democratic ethical misconduct. … Both cases represent potential albatrosses for Democrats in the fall elections, and the party can only hope that the problems fade away." 

But Massa and Rangel aren't the only members under investigation. Republican Rep. Nathan Deal is as well for "a state-funded program that benefits his family auto-salvage business." Now that Deal isn't resigning until after a potential health care vote, Georgia Democrats want the ethics committee to continue its investigation.

More ethics blotter: "Monica Conyers, the wife of veteran Rep. John Conyers (D-Mich.), was sentenced in federal court Wednesday to 37 months in prison. Mrs. Conyers, a former Detroit City Councilwoman, was sentenced to 37 months and two years of supervised probation after being convicted last year of bribery charges."

In Time, Joe Klein writes, "There is not much news in Karl Rove's memoir, Courage and Consequence, which is something of a moral triumph for the author. Rove is nothing if not loyal, and these sorts of books tend to create a stir only when they betray the boss. A significant amount of dirt is dished here -- an astonishing amount, actually; this is a work of titanic pettiness -- but it's all tossed at enemies of George W. Bush."

"One example: Hillary Clinton is criticized for sitting down, rather than standing, for a photo with rescue workers three days after the 9/11 terrorist attacks. Bush, who had just arrived at ground zero, is standing for photos, and it simply doesn't occur to Rove that Clinton had already spent most of the past several days there, working desperately for her constituents. Rove is not always so unfair; he manages to demolish more than a few of the sillier attacks against him and the President. But this book is primarily an act of vengeance -- and, in that sense, unintentionally revealing about the nature of the Bush presidency." 

Stu Rothenberg looks at three Democratic candidates who in a better environment might stand much better chances -- Suzan DelBene in WA-8, Jon Hulburd in AZ-3 and Brad Ellsworth running for Evan Bayh's U.S. Senate seat in Indiana.  

MASSACHUSETTS: The Boston Globe looks Gov. Deval Patrick's ramped up campaign against Republican opponent Charles Baker.

MISSOURI: "The League of Conservation Voters (LCV) launched an effort Wednesday to tip the scales in the close Missouri Senate race against Rep. Roy Blunt (R) by playing up oil-industry contributions to the conservative lawmaker. LCV named Blunt to its 'Dirty Dozen' list of candidates whom it will work against in the 2010 cycle."

NEVADA: "The Republican National Committee may have thought it was dogging Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) by satirizing him as cartoon character Scooby Doo, but Reid is getting scrappy with the portrayal in his own fundraising appeal. "It's been a long time since I watched cartoons with my kids, but I recall Scooby Doo as a pretty good character," Reid said in a fundraising e-mail asking for donations of up to $50. "He solved mysteries and caught the bad guys, pretty impressive -- especially for a dog."

TEXAS: "Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison hasn't announced whether she will resign, as she has said she would after the GOP gubernatorial primary, but that's not stopping most of those who want her U.S. Senate seat," including at least five Senate hopefuls who have already announced their intention to run, the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports. 

From NBC's Betsy Cline and Shawna Thomas
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi told reporters today that a compromise is not far off on resolving the differences between the Senate and House health care bills. "We're pretty close actually," she said. "It's being resolved because we need to find the solution and because we have no more time to think about it. Decision time is here, and that's it."

She suggested there may be additional legislation needed to get the full reform she wants. "There's some things that we anticipate might be complementary to it, which might not fit into a reconciliation bill, but I feel pretty good about where we are."

According to Pelosi, Democrats are now just waiting on scoring from the Congressional Budget Office. She also said they would meet tonight with White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel to assess their progress.

In a photo-op following a meeting with public hospital leaders, Pelosi also fielded questions about earmarks, the day's topic du jour. She said she promised this kind of reform when she became Speaker in 2007 and was proud of the Rep. Obey's announcement today that it will not approve for-profit earmarks.

From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell
Congressional sources say it's unclear today if any investigation of the Eric Massa case will continue. The House Committee on Standards of Official Conduct, also referred to as the Ethics Committee, has "no technical jurisdiction" over Massa following his resignation. In practical terms, sources say, "removal from office" is the ultimate sanction within the committee's power and the abrupt resignation makes that threat irrelevant.

Sources tell NBC News the Massa case had barely begun with no full-time staff assigned and no subcommittee empanelled. The work underway was described as some "collection of data" that included "vetters" checking to see if initial concerns raised were in fact, official complaints. 

Going forward, the committee may have to figure out what it can do within House rules following a resignation. Formal requests to keep the investigation open could be made as the House Republican Leader seemed to suggest today. One potential consideration is cost to taxpayers since investigations are typically lengthy.

*** UPDATE *** The Washington Post is reporting that the House Ethics Committee has closed the investigation.

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Josh Green has some revealing new details on the continuing Eric Massa scandal, in an Atlantic piece just up:

[I]n conversations yesterday and today with some of Massa's Navy shipmates, it became clear that the behavior toward his subordinates that got Massa into trouble in Congress is part of pattern that dates to his time in the Navy.

According to Peter Clarke, a Navy shipmate, Massa was notorious for making unwanted advances toward subordinates. He tells the story of his friend Stuart Borsch, with whom Massa shared a hotel room while on leave during the first Gulf War. "Stuart's at the edge of the bed," Clarke says Borsch told him at the time, "and [Massa] starts massaging him. Massa said, 'You'll have to get one of my special massages.' He called them 'Massa Massages.'" Ron Moss, a Navy shipmate and Borsch's roommate, confirmed that Borsch told him this story at the time.

Borsch, now a history professor at Assumption College in Worcester, Massachusetts, didn't addresss that specific incident, but did confirm to me in an email that he was groped by Massa: "In 1990, aboard the U.S.S. Jouett, I was awakened when a senior officer, Lt. Commander Massa, seemed to be groping me. (I was a lieutenant at the time.) I believe he may have been drinking. I shouted at him and he left. I mentioned the incident to several other officers. I did not officially report it."

Clarke says that Massa's roommate, Tom Maxfield was also assaulted. "Tom lived on upper bunk," Clarke say. "When you're on ship, you're almost exhausted 24-7. So a lot of times you sleep with your uniform on. Tom and Massa shared a stateroom together. Massa climbed up on the top of his bunk, which is hard to do--you never crawl up on somebody else's bunk. He wakes up to Massa undoing his pants trying to snorkel him." Ron Moss also confirmed hearing this story from Maxfield.

From NBC's Charlie Specht
Sen. Orrin Hatch (R) today called President Obama's remarks about the Supreme Court during his State of the Union Address "wrong," "disrespectful," and "completely unnecessary." 
 
"I've said before that President Obama was not only wrong about the Court's decision, but was disrespectful by attacking them for it during the State of the Union address," Hatch said in a statement. "No president has done that, and he should not have used that speech for it either. Chief Justice Roberts is right; the president's remarks were troubling and the State of the Union this year resembled a political pep rally."

Hatch's comments came a day after NBC's Pete Williams reported that Chief Justice John Roberts called the president's criticism of the court "troubling."

From NBC's Betsy Cline
Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius today faced leaders from the insurance industry, the same people the Obama administration has blamed for the current health care crisis.

"I'm not here to vilify or blame insurance companies for the health-care system's problems," Sebelius told the audience. But, she added, "Americans, at the very least, deserve to know what's going on. They need transparency."

Sebelius said, on the one hand, she recognized the plight of insurers -- that young, healthy Americans are dropping out of the marketplace because of the economy. But, on the other hand, she said, "We've got to figure out a new strategy," she told the America's Health Insurance Plan (AHIP) policy conference. "We need to put ourselves in the shoes of the remaining customers."

Sebelius was referencing the double-digit premium increases facing some customers in California, an issue she has talked about many times in past weeks. Sebelius suggested the insurance industry consider cutting profits in the short-term to create a means for more sustainable profits in the long-term, but AHIP President Karen Ignagni disagreed. Ignagni compared her industry to AIG saying, "We must be solvent to pay claims... We have to be in the black, not red, or we'll have hundreds of AIGs in the delivery system."

Ignagni later responded to the administration's use of what she called "politics of vilification" as a diversion. "Politics as usual won't address the underlying issues," she told the media at a press conference following Sebelius' remarks.

Sebelius told them that it's not too late for insurers to work with Congress and the White House, and Ignagni seemed to agree.

"Now could be the beginning of a change," Ignani said. "This could be the end of vilification and the beginning of problem-solving."

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Former eBay CEO Meg Whitman, a Republican running in the wide open California governor's race, had an awkward run-in with California press today.

She invited reporters to an event, then refused to take questions and then had her press aides escort reporters and cameras out.

The report below from a local TV station shows Whitman just smiling as a reporter asked a question. Appearing to not know what to do, she asked an aide through her smile, "How do you want to handle this Sarah?" Addressing the press she said, "I think we're not going to take questions right this very minute."

Whitman continued to smile and nervously laugh. Then reporters were escorted out and her camapign put up some a makeshift a shade to prevent further pictures.

The reporter for the local station below says that Whitman called him to apologize. But having these kinds of local reports is never a good thing.

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Back wax? Come on, it was a "razor on the neck."

Yesterday, we mentioned Charlie Crist's back wax charge against Marco Rubio. And we mentioned Crist's defense of his healthy tan from 2006. Today, Rubio's team hits back:

"Marco paid $20 for a haircut with a razor on the neck, and he bought some items that went into a silent auction, including gift certificates. ... Charlie Crist's obsession with making up things about other people's grooming habits is bizarre for anyone, especially the sitting governor of Florida."

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Ralph Reed has decided against a run for Congress. Reed, the former executive director of the Christian Coalition, who's political star faded after the extent of his ties to convicted former lobbyist Jack Abramoff were revealed in 2006, made the announcement this morning.

He does appear to be not only leaving the door open to another run for at some point, but he also appears to be trying to undergo something of a resurgence with the founding of another faith group, the Faith and Freedom Coalition. Reed was in Iowa yesterday speaking to the Iowa Christian Alliance talking about his fundraising goals and how to take back Iowa with a Christian resurgence.

Here's his statement, per Christian Broadcasting Network's Brody: 

"After much thought and prayer, I have decided not to be a candidate for Congress in Georgia's Seventh district in 2010. I believe I can best advance conservative principles by continuing to serve as CEO of Century Strategies, LLC, and founding chairman of the Faith and Freedom Coalition.  Century's voter contact subsidiary and grassroots team will be involved in a number of races in 2010.  FFC is growing rapidly, with over 150,000 members and supporters already, currently adding one new state chapter a week and 1,000 new members a day.

"In 2010 and 2012, FFC will register an estimated one million new faith-based voters and make tens of millions of voter contacts in what may be the largest conservative get-out-the-vote effort in modern political history.  These nationwide efforts offer a much better prospect for changing the direction of the country than winning a Congressional race myself.  In the end, I concluded I cannot run for Congress and carry out the plans I have for Century Strategies and Faith and Freedom Coalition at the same time.  I had to make a choice.  I believe electing 50 to 100 men and women of character and conservative beliefs to Congress and statewide office over the next two election cycles is a more efficacious way to advance the conservative agenda than seeking public office myself in 2010.

Should that door open in the future, perhaps I will arrive at a different decision, but I know this is the right decision at this time for me and the Reed family.  Jo Anne and I have been deeply moved and encouraged by the expressions of support we have received from so many.  We are proud to call Georgia our home and we look forward to continuing to be involved in the civic life of our state and the nation.  God bless you as we work together for an historic victory in 2010."

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
As first reported on MSNBC's Daily Rundown this morning, here is Marco Rubio's kickoff ad, which lays the groundwork for Rubio's line of attack against Gov. Charlie Crist in the GOP primary:

*** UPDATE *** Here's the Crist campaign response:

"As the truth begins to surface about Speaker Rubio's double billing of taxpayers, lavish spending of Republican money, and, just today, excessive pork spending, no ad will be able to stop voters from seeing he is not who he claims to be," spokeswoman Andrea Saul said in a statement. "A Miami lobbyist, Speaker Rubio has proved he is just another typical politician who uses his public office for personal gain and only comes clean once caught.  Floridians deserve a true steward of their hard earned taxpayer dollars and public servant who does the right thing, even when no one is looking."

Obama heads to St. Louis to sell health care… Robin Carnahan WON'T be there… The White House and the new Gang of 14 make progress on energy… Israel's shot at Biden… Fact-checking Stupak and looking at his main beef with the Senate health bill -- it doesn't codify the Hyde Amendment… John Roberts vs. Obama… Marco Rubio vs. Crist heats up… And wrapping up Giannoulias' day at the White House.

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** Spirit of St. Louis: President Obama is back on the road to sell health care -- this time to St. Louis, where he gives a speech at 4:50 pm ET. Later that night, he helps raise money for Sen. Claire McCaskill (D), an early and staunch supporter during the 2008 presidential primaries who is NOT up for re-election this year (but in 2012). Leading up to the White House's self-imposed deadline of March 18 -- next week! -- for the House to pass the Senate health-care bill, we've learned that the White House is adding more stops to Obama's health-care tour. He's supposed to hit the road again on Monday, and White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs said that there might be more campaign-style stops. Meanwhile, the White House isn't backing away from that March 18 deadline. On "TODAY" this morning, House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer accidentally supported that deadline by saying, "That's our objective." Then Hoyer backtracked, saying they hope to vote before the House's Easter recess, which is set to begin on March 29. The White House and other non-congressional Dems are a bit confused as to why a week longer helps.

*** Carnahan won't be there: While Obama will be with McCaskill, Robin Carnahan -- who is running THIS YEAR to be the Show Me State's other female Democratic senator -- won't be in attendance. Instead, she'll be in D.C., of all places. Carnahan will be meeting with the National Association of Securities Administrators Association and members of the Senate Budget Committee "to demand strong financial reforms to hold Wall St. bankers accountable," Carnahan spokesman Linden Zakula told First Read. Zakula added the D.C. event was planned long ago and "I'm sure we'll be seeing both of them [McCaskill and Obama] on the campaign trail." Of course, Carnahan is also raising money while in D.C.

*** The new Gang of 14: Lost in yesterday's Massa mess on cable TV -- and all we can say about it is "wow" -- was real progress on energy. Yesterday, President Obama met with 14 Democratic and Republican senators to discuss energy. And per Politico, the meeting came near the release of a revamped energy bill by Sens. John Kerry (D), Lindsey Graham (R), and Joe Lieberman (I-D). "Those three senators have dropped the idea of an economy-wide cap in favor of imposing different emissions curbs on different industries. The legislation would also provide new federal assistance to nuclear power plants, carbon sequestration, storage projects at coal plants and offshore oil exploration – proposals aimed at attracting Republican support." Graham had positive things to say after the White House meeting. "… Graham (R-SC) was impressed by Obama's commitment to a comprehensive approach and urged his GOP colleagues to back the bill. 'I'm not going to support some half-assed reform,' he exclaimed." Graham added that it has to be comprehensive, because for individual ideas like off-shore oil drilling, nuclear power expansion, or major climate change initiatives, there aren't 60 votes. But collectively, Graham is confident there are 60 votes.

*** With friends like these… : On the very day Vice President Biden visited Israel, that country displayed -- to put it very kindly -- an amazing show of independence by announcing more settlement development, this time saying it plans to build 1,600 housing units in traditionally Arab East Jerusalem. Writes the L.A. Times: "In the midst of a high-profile trip by Vice President Joe Biden, Israel unveiled plans for new housing in disputed Jerusalem on Tuesday, a surprise step that embarrassed and angered the highest ranking Obama administration official yet to visit the country." It may be Bibi Netanyahu playing domestic politics, but it underscores why the president's early attempts to jump start the peace process have failed and apparently badly.

*** Stupak and the Hyde Amendment: Yesterday, one of us fact-checked Rep. Bart Stupak's (D) claim that the Senate health-care bill directly subsidizes abortion, which we concluded was incorrect when you read the language of the bill. But Stupak's main beef has to with the Hyde Amendment, which bars federal financing of abortion (except in cases of rape or incest or when the mother's life is at risk). "[T]he Senate bill remains a departure from current law which prohibits federal funding and subsidies for abortion… In fact, the Senate bill creates an unprecedented accounting scheme to replace the long-standing Hyde Amendment." According to some who follow the issue closely, Stupak's amendment, which was part of the House bill, codifies Hyde while the Senate bill doesn't.

*** Hyde isn't permanent law: As Slate's Timothy Noah wrote last week, "A common misconception is that the government's ban on abortion funding through the Hyde Amendment … has the force of permanent law. It does not. It is merely a rider routinely attached to annual appropriations bills. Should the appropriations committees in Congress decide one year not to attach it, then HHS will become free to fund abortions. Pro-lifers live in fear that this will happen, but they don't want to draw too much attention to the possibility, lest they discourage the public from thinking the Hyde Amendment is writ in stone. If Congress ever did tire of the Hyde Amendment (which at this point has outlived Hyde), Stupak wouldn't want to see abortion restrictions evaporate from health reform, too. But that's exactly what would happen under the Senate bill. Its legislative language deliberately defines abortion 'based on the law [governing HHS appropriations] as in effect as of the date that is six months before the beginning of the plan year involved.'"

*** John Roberts vs. Obama: Who knew that President Obama's criticism of the Supreme Court's controversial campaign-finance decision – and Justice Alito's visible reaction to it -- would continue to be a story a month and a half after he delivered his State of the Union address? As NBC's Pete Williams reported, Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts yesterday called Obama's SOTU criticism "very troubling." Speaking to a law school class in Alabama on Tuesday, Roberts said while anyone is free to criticize the court, the sight of a president dressing down the justices in front of Congress was "very troubling." Roberts also said he wonders if justices should attend State of the Union addresses anymore. By the way, for those who still have both the PREPARED text of Obama's SOTU and the ACTUAL remarks handy, you'll notice how the president seemed to attempt to back off what was going to be harsher criticism of court.

*** Rubio vs. Crist heats up: From the look of things, it appears that Marco Rubio's campaign is trying to knock out Charlie Crist -- almost six months before their August primary. Yesterday, Team Rubio released a memo from campaign pollster Whit Ayres: "The trend is obvious and striking: Marco Rubio, without running a single television ad, has gone from low single digits to a majority of the vote on the primary ballot, in the process passing a sitting governor. In almost thirty years of polling for Republican candidates, I have never seen a comparable phenomenon. This trend presents Charlie Crist with a significant strategic dilemma. How does an incumbent governor who currently stands at about one-third of the primary vote grow his support?" Be sure to tune to MSNBC's "Daily Rundown" for an exclusive on the Rubio-Crist race.

*** Giannoulias' day at the White House: Yesterday's White House visit by Illinois Senate nominee Alexi Giannoulias (D) – as part of the White House's Greek Independence Day celebration – was mainly about reassuring Democrats in Washington, in light of the bank problem that threatens Giannoulias' candidacy. His campaign released this press release yesterday: "White House Reiterates Strong Support for Alexi Giannoulias' Candidacy." And it included this line for Robert Gibbs: "Alexi Giannoulias is the Democratic nominee for the United States Senate, and has the support and the backing of the White House." (However, the NRSC seized on this less than encouraging line from Obama yesterday: "We've got at least one potential member of Congress -- Alexi, stand up -- from the state of Illinois." Asked the NRSC, "Potential member"?) The question we have: How will the actual event of the bank failure play out in the Chicago and Illinois media? It's one thing to poll the idea before it happens, but no one knows for sure how the actual event ends up playing out. Is it a local news obsession? Is it a one-day story? Does all this pre-emptive action help make it "old news" by the time it actually shuts down?

*** More midterm news: In Arizona, J.D. Hayworth has a radio ad touting his Christian beliefs and values… In Georgia, Roll Call says Ralph Reed is expected to announce that he WON'T run for Congress… And in Louisiana, "U.S. Rep. Charlie Melancon's campaign manager has filed a complaint with the Senate Select Committee on Ethics accusing U.S. Sen. David Vitter of sending out an illegal campaign fund solicitation" that featured a facsimile of the eagle on the great seal of the United States, which is illegal, the Shreveport Times reports.

Countdown to CA, NV filing deadlines: 2 days
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Countdown to Election Day 2010: 237 days

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President Obama is on the cover of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch ahead of his trip there. The paper's table-setting lead: "President Barack Obama will try to rally a skeptical public behind his health insurance overhaul in a speech in St. Charles today that may remind Missourians of Obama's days as a hard-charging candidate. Hoping to bring a sense of urgency to the debate, the White House is pursuing a campaign-style approach that aims broadsides at the insurance industry and warns of a rash of higher premiums."
 
More: "The White House said Tuesday night that Obama planned to spell out a new White House initiative today that would pay private auditors to root out waste and fraud in Medicare and Medicaid. Improper payments for those two programs last year were estimated at $54 billion."

Obama's job approval in a new AP-GFK poll holds at 53%. "Obama's overall standing hasn't really moved since January," AP's Sidoti writes. "Neither have his ratings on health care and the economy." Even though 56% say the country is headed in the wrong direction, Obama remains more popular than Congress (22% approval), Republicans (30%), or Democrats generally (36%). The president also got a boost on Iraq (55% approve) and Afghanistan (57% approve). Democrats still lead in the generic ballot 44%-38%. But this is key: "By 67 percent to 59 percent, more independents disapprove of Democrats in Congress than disapprove of Republicans."

With friends like these…? "Israel blindsided Vice President Joe Biden's fence-mending mission Tuesday by announcing a settler building boom in East Jerusalem," the New York Daily News reports. "The move to expand an Orthodox Jewish settlement by 1,600 units embarrassed Biden, who was trying to jump-start 'indirect' talks with the Palestinians. "Biden showed his anger by arriving 90 minutes late for dinner at the residence of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. 'I condemn the decision' by Israeli Interior Minister Eli Yishai to build in the area of the West Bank annexed to Jerusalem by Israel, Biden said in an unusually undiplomatic statement. He called the announcement 'precisely the kind of step that undermines the trust we need right now and runs counter to the constructive discussions that I've had here in Israel.'"

In addition to NBC's Pete Williams' reporting yesterday on Chief Justice John Roberts saying that President Obama's chiding over the Citizens United case was "very troubling," he also said the State of the Union had "degenerated into a political pep rally."

The Washington Post: "Massa went on television Tuesday night for the first time since the allegations surfaced, but his comments in two cable television interviews contradicted earlier statements, serving only to raise more questions."

Groping? Just a tickle monster? "Now they're saying I groped a male staffer," Massa told host Glenn Beck. "I did. I tickled him until he couldn't breathe." When asked if there could be new allegations or if there were phone and electronic messages, he said, "I'm sure there's text messages. We bantered back and forth all the time." 
 
The New York Post says Massa's in a "tickle pickle." 
 
What about wrestling? Any inappropriate touching then? "When four guys jump on you to wrestle you and prove you're 50 years old anything could be anything," Massa told Larry King. He denied having touched anyone inappropriately during the incident. He later added: "I never admitted groping." He added, "When you grab someone and you're wrestling, I don't know how to describe that word." More: "Massa said that he had been unaware, until informed by Larry King, that his former deputy chief of staff, Ron Hikel, had first reported allegations to House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer's (D-Md.) office and then to the ethics committee in February."

Turning to health care… Roll Call sees three paths to resolving the abortion issue to pass health reform: (1) "find the votes to pass the Senate's less restrictive abortion language over the objections of the Catholic bishops, Rep. Bart Stupak (D-Mich.) and a clutch of House Democrats who oppose abortion rights." (That's the speaker's preference.); (2) "punt the abortion debate with promises that the issue will be subject to future floor votes"; (3) "forcing new abortion language through the Senate, either on a reconciliation bill of fixes or on another bill, but that will require 60 votes to overcome procedural hurdles."

The Washington Post chronicles how Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is trying to divide Democrats on reconciliation. "Speaking to reporters Tuesday, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) warned House Democrats that they would be taking a colossal risk if they approved the Senate's version of health-care legislation before the Senate had acted to remove some of the bill's most contentious provisions. Now that Democrats have lost their supermajority in the Senate, some variation of this delicate two-step process is the only way a health-care reform bill can become law.

"'House Democrats will have to decide whether they want to trust the Senate to fix their political problems,' McConnell said. He listed perks that Senate Democrats won for Nebraska, Louisiana, Florida and labor unions; House members insist that all must be removed through a separate 'fixes' bill under special budget reconciliation rules." 
 
Majority Leader Steny "Hoyer on Tuesday morning suggested the March 18 deadline recently set by White House press secretary Robert Gibbs was not endorsed by congressional leaders." 
 
Here's The Hill's updated whip count on health care.

Rick Santorum made his second trip to Iowa: "Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum passionately defended his record against abortion Tuesday night amid an underground effort to discredit him. 'There are a lot of people who vote pro-life. There are very few people who stand up and fight pro-life. There is a reason for that. You pay a price if you stand up in the foxhole and fight for pro-life instead of just voting for pro-life,' Santorum said." There are currently robo-calls against Santorum making the rounds in Iowa. 

Despite the losses most observers expect Democrats to incur this fall, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is seeking to show it's still on offense -- or at least in a good position to defend open seats -- in several districts. Today, the DCCC announces 13 candidates who have qualified for its "Red to Blue" program. "These candidates have come out of the gate strong and the Red to Blue Program will give them the financial and structural edge to be even more competitive in November," said Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD), chairman of the DCCC. "These candidates are generating excitement back home and are making the case to voters that their commitment to creating jobs and standing up for the middle class is far better than turning back the clock to the failed Bush policies of the past."
 
The candidates are: Ami Bera (CA-03), Paula Brooks (OH-12), John Callahan (PA-15), John Carney (DE-AL), Suzan DelBene (WA-08), Lori Edwards (FL-12), Raj Goyle (KS-04), Roy Herron (TN-08), Bryan Lentz (PA-07), Rob Miller (SC-02), Steve Pougnet (CA-45), Dan Seals (IL-10), Tom White (NE-02)
 
CQ reports that the House Conservatives Fund will endorse 10 candidates today, giving them each $5,000. 
 
ALABAMA: When asked whether he would return $7,000 in campaign contributions from former House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Rep. Charlie Rangel, Democrat-turned-Republican Rep. Parker Griffith said, "I don't have a relationship with Congressman Rangel, and I'm not sure about the money trail," local news channel WAFF reports. 
 
ARIZONA: Senate candidate J.D. Hayworth has a new radio ad out, touting his Christian beliefs and values. 
 
GEORGIA: "Former Christian Coalition architect Ralph Reed, who is known to be considering a possible bid in Georgia's open 7th district, announced Tuesday that he'd make his future plans known on Wednesday," Roll Call reports. "But multiple Georgia GOP insiders said Tuesday afternoon that they believe the former lieutenant governor candidate will simply be announcing that he will pass on the Congressional contest." 
 
"Ralph Reed, the former head of the Christian Coalition and a veteran Republican strategist, told a Des Moines crowd Tuesday night that he was helping establish an Iowa-based Christian political organization, and if he could raise $500,000, Hawkeye State politics would be changed for the better," the Iowa Independent reports. 
 
LOUISIANA: "U.S. Rep. Charlie Melancon's campaign manager has filed a complaint with the Senate Select Committee on Ethics accusing U.S. Sen. David Vitter of sending out an illegal campaign fund solicitation" that featured a facsimile of the eagle on the great seal of the United States, which is illegal," the Shreveport Times reports. 
 
MISSOURI: "Democratic Senate candidate Robin Carnahan won't be in St. Louis Wednesday when President Obama drops in for a health care rally," the Kansas City Star reports. Instead, she'll be in Washington raising money, as will Republican candidate Roy Blunt. 
 
NEW YORK: A Marist poll showed Andrew Cuomo's approval ratings fall off markedly "since Gov. Paterson tapped him to probe potential witness tampering by members of the governor's office." His approval was at 67% two weeks ago and now it sits at 54%. That's still far better than Paterson, now at an abysmal 19%.

From NBC's Mark Murray
Rep. Bart Stupak's (D-MI) office has responded to our earlier fact-check on his claim that the Senate health care directly subsidizes abortion.

"Although the Senate bill requires one of the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) plans to exclude abortion coverage and the associated $1 charge for reproductive services, the other OPM plans will include abortion services and will require all enrollees to pay the $1 per month fee. While the Americans who make the effort to seek out a plan that does not cover abortion will not be subject to this unprecedented charge, many more Americans will enroll in plans unaware that a portion of their monthly premium is earmarked for abortion. No where in federal law does it allow for a fee for abortion coverage. All health care plans currently administered by OPM – those offered to federal employees through the Federal Employees Health Benefits Program – are prohibited from including abortion coverage. In order to be consistent with current law the Senate bill must be modified to ensure that no plans administered by OPM cover abortion services.

Even if the $1 per month issue is addressed, the Senate bill remains a departure from current law which prohibits federal funding and subsidies for abortion. The annual Labor-HHS appropriations bill and seven other federal health programs include language that specifically prohibits the use of federal funds to assist in the purchase of health care coverage that includes abortion. No such language appears in the Senate bill. In fact, the Senate bill creates an unprecedented accounting scheme to replace the long-standing Hyde amendment. The law of the land is that – except in cases of rape, incest or life of the mother – the federal government does not pay for abortion or any portion of a health insurance policy that covers abortion. This law must be maintained in health care reform legislation."

The first paragraph doesn't appear to knock down what we wrote earlier: that the Senate legislation doesn't directly subsidize abortion. The second paragraph hits at what we've heard is Stupak's (and National Right to Life's) main beef with the Senate legislation: that it doesn't codify the Hyde amendment.

From NBC's Katherine Andrew
The Wilmington (DE) News Journal reports that conservative commentator Christine O'Donnell will challenge Rep. Mike Castle (R) in Delaware's GOP Senate primary.

O'Donnell, who will make her formal announcement tomorrow at 10:30 a.m ET tomorrow morning, is no stranger to the campaign scene, having run unsuccessfully for the Delaware Senate in 2006 and 2008. 

The primary is on Sept. 14.

New Castle County Executive Chris Coons is the Democrat running in the race.

From NBC's Pete Williams
Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts today called President Obama's remarks about the court during the State of the Union message "very troubling."

Speaking to a law school class today in Alabama, Roberts said while anyone is free to criticize the court, the sight of a president dressing down the justices in front of Congress was "very troubling."

Roberts said he wonders if justices should attend State of the Union addresses anymore.

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
The national Republican midterm political strategy is beginning to take shape. Yesterday, National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Cornyn (R-TX) stressed health care -- not necessarily even the economy -- as the top issue for the midterms.

Earlier this week, the Republican National Committee took to the airwaves with a fundraising solicitation that strikes many of the Tea Party themes. In it, RNC Chairman Michael Steele invokes the phrase "take their government back" and he says the word "freedom" eight times in 30 seconds.

In a turn from 2006, Republicans are also now seizing the mantle of ethics. The RNC is now going up with another ad -- hitting Democrats on the subject. They were handed Charlie Rangel and Eric Massa in the same day, and they use both in the ad as well as targeting the unpopular House Speaker Nancy Pelosi for her response. Republican strategist John Feehery on MSNBC added in Rod Blagojevich and David Paterson.

Using Massa, however, could be somewhat problematic, whatever the growing allegations against him turn out to be. For one, some on the conservative side of the spectrum are embracing him, and two, from what has been reported so far, the way Democratic leadership handled the Massa situation is markedly different from the way Republican leadership handled the highly publicized page scandal involving former Rep. Mark Foley.

House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer's office says it told a staffer, who complained of Massa's conduct, he had two days to report the complaint to the ethics committee or it would do it for him. Republicans, by contrast, during the Foley scandal appeared to attempt to sweep the allegations under the rug.

That said, Pelosi, who is the main target of the GOP ad, has not taken a hard line on several ethics issues -- from convicted former Rep. William Jefferson to the late Jack Murtha and his connections to the lobbying group PMA, or Charlie Rangel, who amid an ethics investigation has stepped down from his Ways and Means chairmanship.

The RNC ad says Pelosi called the sexual harassment allegation against Massa a "rumor." That's true.

"There had been a rumor, but just that," Pelosi said Thursday, per Roll Call. "A one-, two-, three-person rumor that had been reported to Mr. Hoyer's office and reported to my staff, which they did not report to me because you know what? This is rumor city. There are rumors. I have a job to do, and I've been doing just that."

In 2006, Democrats rode to power on the crest of a wave of an unpopular war in Iraq, President Bush's declining popularity, the mismanagement of the aftermath of Hurrcane Katrina, and GOP ethics problems related to convicted ex-lobbyist Jack Abramoff, money-laundering charges surrounding Tom DeLay and sex scandals like Foley's and a less publicized one involving former Rep. Don Sherwood. (The Sherwood scandal gave a traditionally Republican-held Northeast Pennsylvania district to the Democrats.)

The landscape has changed dramatically since 2006, and Democrats -- four years after pledging to drain the swamp -- are on the defensive over their governance. Republicans are looking to ride their own wave back to power fueled, in part, by anti-government Tea Party anger, an economy that has yet to turn around in the year since President Obama has taken office -- while a prolonged health-care fight has taken place -- and now Democrats facing their own ethics scandals.

From NBC's Mark Murray
Once again, it looks like the thorny issue of abortion will decide the fate of health care.

Last November, the House of Representatives narrowly passed its health-care bill, 220-215, only after it included an amendment by Rep. Bart Stupak (D-MI) barring any federal funding in the legislation from being used for abortion coverage (except in cases of rape, incest, or if the mother's life is in danger). A month later, Senate Democrats secured their 60th -- and decisive -- vote after agreeing to Sen. Ben Nelson's (D-NE) similar (though less restrictive) changes on abortion.

And now, with the House poised to vote later this month on the already-passed Senate health-care bill, Stupak is claiming that he and 11 other House Democrats who voted for the legislation in November will vote against the Senate bill, unless it adopts the House's abortion language. (Stupak tells the AP he's "optimistic" he can resolve this abortion dispute with the White House and Democratic leaders.)

Stupak's rationale: The Senate bill -- despite Nelson's changes -- directly subsidizes abortion.

"In the Senate bill," Stupak told MSNBC's Chris Matthews last week, "it says you must offer insurance policies that will be paid for by the federal government that covers abortion. You must do so."

The Michigan congressman later said this to ABC's George Stephanopoulos: "The bill that they're using as the vehicle is the Senate bill, and if you go to page 2,069 through page 2,078, you will find in there the federal government would directly subsidize abortions, plus every enrollee in the Office of Personnel Management enrolled plan, every enrollee has to pay a minimum of $1 per month towards reproductive rights, which includes abortion."

Stupak's Democratic allies have adopted his rationale. As the office of Rep. Dan Lipinski (D-IL) -- ostensibly one of the Stupak Twelve -- has said: "Congressman Lipinski will not vote for a health care bill that provides federal funding for abortion."

But is Stupak right -- that the Senate bill directly subsidizes abortions? The answer appears to be no.

For starters, let's look at the pages that Stupak cited to Stephanopoulos. From pages 2,071-2,072: "If a qualified health plan provides coverage of services described in paragraph (1)(B)(i)" -- i.e., abortion -- "the issuer of the plan shall not use any amount attributable to [health reform's government-funding mechanisms] for purposes of paying for such services.

As Slate's Timothy Noah, who fact-checked Stupak last week, writes, "That seems pretty straightforward. No government funding for abortions."

What's more, the Senate bill explicitly ensures that Americans who receive federal subsidies under the reform plan must pay separately for abortion coverage. Here's pages 2,074-2,075: "In the case of a plan to which sub paragraph (A) applies, the issuer of the plan shall collect from each enrollee in the plan (without regard to the enrollee's age, sex, or family status) a separate payment" that "may not estimate such a cost at less than $1 per enrollee, per month."

Here's the kicker: Under the Senate bill, due to Nelson's changes, states can choose NOT to offer abortion coverage in the health exchange. Page 2,069: "A State may elect to prohibit abortion coverage in qualified health plans offered through an Exchange in such State is such State enacts a law to provide for such prohibition." And those states that do not prohibit abortion coverage must provide a choice of health plans on the exchange that include abortion coverage and don't include abortion.

First Read contacted Stupak's office for comment, but we've yet to hear back.

Will abortions be covered if the House passes the Senate bill. Yes. (As the Republican National Committee embarrassingly discovered, many health plans already provide elective abortion coverage.)

But will the federal government directly subsidize and pay for abortion coverage? Not if you read the fine print.

*** UPDATE *** A Stupak spokeswoman just called First Read, saying that the office is putting together a document laying out all of its arguments why the Senate bill directly subsidizes abortion. When we asked if there was specific language she could immediately point us to, the spokeswoman declined saying she'd wait until the document is released. When it comes out, we'll post on it.

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Ralph Reed, once left for dead politically, is trying to stage a comeback.

Reed, the 48-year-old former executive director of the Christian coalition, saw his meteoric rise take an even harder fall in 2006 after the extent of his ties to convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff were revealed. He saw sizable, early leads in the polls disintegrate in his bid for Georgia lieutenant governor, and he wound up losing in the GOP primary.

But in a changed environment, the first one favoring Republicans since 2006, Reed is plotting a bid for Congress. The Christian Broadcasting Network's David Brody reports Reed will announce tomorrow morning whether or not he will run for retiring Georgia Congressman John Linder's seat. (Linder announced his retirement on Feb. 27. The seventh congressional district is a solidly Republican one. McCain won it with 60% of the vote; Bush did so with 70%.)

"The environment is so good for Republicans right now, any conservative who ever considered running for anything, this is the year to do it," one Republican strategist told First Read. Of Reed's ties to Abramoff, the strategist said, "It doesn't worry me too much. If he can get himself elected, then voters will have given him a clean bill of health, and he'll no doubt hold himself to a high standard in Congress. This strikes me as the sort of inside-the-beltway hand-wringing that's largely irrelevant in a country with unemployment hovering around 10 percent."

Another GOP strategist, though, disagreed.

"It's not inside-the-beltway handwringing when it's up on 30-second TV ads in his district," the strategist said, adding, "He's going to say that he's going to challenge the status quo, and they're going to point back to him operating in a system with a convicted criminal and developing these deals. It's going to be impossible to make the argument that he's going to operate outside that system, the broken stystm that's in Washington, D.C. That's a powerful argument this cycle."

Additionally, the strategist said of Reed: "He quickly rises to the ranks of Public Enemy 1 through 10 for the Democrats. It's low-hanging fruit." And he said a Reed candidacy could be used in general elections across Georgia. "Do you stand with Ralph Reed? Do you support his candidacy?" would be the question for an opponent to ask. Now, it might not make a difference among Republicans, the strategist said, but it could be a problem in a general election and for a national GOP message.

"This is a change election," the strategist continued. "People are disgusted with Washington, and he's not able to make that argument with a level of purity that another candidate could -- and that makes his candidacy more difficult."

Here are two accounts of Reed's fall from the Washington Post and Time from 2006.

The Washington Post:

"Jack Abramoff, whose outsize Washington lobbying scandal has reached down to Georgia. Abramoff and Reed -- the former executive director of the Christian Coalition -- have been friends for 25 years, and until recently it had been a mutually profitable association. Now it is proving highly inconvenient for Reed, and threatens to stall a career that has been emblematic of the modern GOP. ... the first major dent in Reed's carefully cultivated image came with the disclosure in the summer of 2004 that his public relations and lobbying companies had received at least $4.2 million from Abramoff to mobilize Christian voters to fight Indian casinos competing with Abramoff's casino clients.

Similarly damaging has been a torrent of e-mails revealed during the investigation that shows a side of Reed that some former supporters say cannot be reconciled with his professed Christian values.

"After reading the e-mail, it became pretty obvious he was putting money before God," said Phil Dacosta, a Georgia Christian Coalition member who had initially backed Reed. "We are righteously casting him out."

Among those e-mails was one from Reed to Abramoff in late 1998: "I need to start humping in corporate accounts! . . . I'm counting on you to help me with some contacts." Within months, Abramoff hired him to lobby on behalf of the Mississippi Band of Choctaws, who were seeking to prevent competitors from setting up facilities in nearby Alabama.

In 1999, Reed e-mailed Abramoff after submitting a bill for $120,000 and warning that he would need as much as $300,000 more: "We are opening the bomb bays and holding nothing back."

Time (in an article penned by current Vice President Biden Communications Director Jay Carney):

In considering the collapse of Ralph Reed's political dreams, it's tempting to conjure up biblical parables about Jesus instructing his followers in humility by suggesting they go "sit in the lowest place"--or of pride going before a fall. ...

Reed, just 45 but with crow's-feet carved gently into his temples, offering a meager group of supporters a curt concession speech in a hotel ballroom in Buckhead last week. He had lost the primary to a little-known state senator named Casey Cagle in a 12-point landslide, Reed's once invincible lead in the polls and fund raising eroded by a year of steady revelations about his ties to the convicted former G.O.P. superlobbyist Jack Abramoff. In the political vernacular that Reed loves to employ, he was waxed.