ARIZONA: "As Sen. John McCain works to beat back a primary challenge from the right, Arizona businesswoman Nan Stockholm Walden is taking a look at entering the Senate race on the Democratic side, according to Democrats in Arizona and in Washington," Politico reports. 
 
FLORIDA: A new Research 2000 poll conducted for the liberal blog Daily Kos shows Marco Rubio leading Gov. Charlie Crist by 58% to 30%, while "in the general election, Crist leads the Democrat Meek by 45%-36% -- but Rubio only has a statistically insignificant edge over Meek of 41%-40%," Talking Points Memo writes. 
 
NEW YORK: "Gov. Paterson says he's a leaker," the New York Daily News writes. "Paterson, during an appearance on 'The John Gambling Show' Thursday morning, suggested that he was the one who first tipped the media about his efforts to contact Sherr-una Booker, the Bronx woman who filed a domestic violence complaint against his top aide David Johnson. 'I don't want to go into it but the person who informed others that there was such a conversation was me,' Paterson said." 
 
"The campaign for the Republican nomination for governor was blown wide open on Thursday as the party's presumptive frontrunner, Rick A. Lazio, lost key support after a last-minute entry into the race by a conservative Long Island Democrat," Steve Levy, the New York Times reports. 
 
PENNSYLVANIA: "A new poll sponsored by the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review in conjunction with Pennsylvania-based Susquehanna Polling and Research shows the upcoming special election to replace the late Congressman John Murtha is a near dead heat," according to the polling firm, "with Democrat special election nominee Mark Critz holding a tenuous 36/31 lead over Republican nominee Tim Burns; 31% of likely voters remain undecided." It's worth pointing out, however, that the Tribune-Review is a conservative-leaning newspaper and Susquehanna is a conservative firm. 

From NBC's Mark Murray
... in two different AP stories.

The first:

Gov. Mark Sanford has agreed to pay $74,000 in fines to resolve dozens of charges that he violated state ethics laws with his campaign spending and travel, including a taxpayer-funded rendezvous with his Argentine mistress, the State Ethics Commission said Thursday.

The second:

A judge has finalized South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford's divorce from his wife Jenny, ending their 20-year marriage. Court records show Family Court Judge Jocelyn Cate issued her ruling Thursday, less than three weeks after the first lady appeared, asking to end the marriage because of her husband's adultery.

From NBC's Mark Murray and Mike Viqueira
As we said last week, pronouncements that a member of Congress might vote for or against the health-care bill must be taken with a grain of salt -- until the final vote is taken.

Last week, Rep. Luis Gutierrez (D) said he was opposed to the legislation (due to its restrictions on illegal immigrants), but he left himself some wiggle room to eventually support it.

Well, Gutierrez today told reporters that he would end up voting for it on Sunday.

But Democrats have many more cats to herd until they get to 216. Per MSNBC's Brooke Brower, the Boston Globe is reporting that Massachusetts Rep. Stephen Lynch -- who voted for last year's House bill -- "said today that he will vote against President Obama's health care overhaul when it comes to the House floor, contending that it doesn't put enough pressure on insurance companies to reduce costs."

And Hotline reports that New York Rep. Michael Arcuri (D) -- who also voted for last year's bill -- plans to vote against it, according to Democratic officials.

*** UPDATE *** Two House Democrats who voted against last year's bill -- Tennessee's Bart Gordon and Colorado's Betsy Markey -- now say they will vote for the current health legislation.

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
The House legislation on the reconciliation package is posted online.

It's being called the "Health Care and Education Affordability Reconciliation Act of 2010."

Here it is.

*** UPDATE *** Here is the Democrats' summary of what's in the legislation.

From NBC's Mike Viqueira and Domenico Montanaro
Congressman Barney Frank took up a defense of congressional staffers in response to Minority Leader John Boehner being quoted as describing some as "little punk staffers."

Frank wrote a letter to Boehner urging him to apologize.

Here is Frank's full letter:
 
March 18, 2010

The Honorable John A. Boehner
Minority Leader
U.S. House of Representatives
1011 Longworth
Washington, D.C. 20515

Dear Minority Leader Boehner,

I was very disappointed to read a quote from you in the Market Watch article by Ronald Orol, on March 17th, in which you say "Don't let those little punk staffers take advantage of you and stand up for yourselves."

I am appalled that a Leader of the House, who must know what good work is done by our staffs, would take such an inaccurate cheap-shot at these people, for the purpose of ingratiating himself with bankers or any other group.  As Chairman of the Financial Services Committee, I work closely with a large number of the staff members whom you are demeaning by this statement, and while I obviously have closer working relationships with the members of the majority staff, I am familiar with the work done by a number of the minority staff members as well, both for the Committee and on personal staffs.  Your reference to "punk staffers" trying to "take advantage" of people in the financial industry is wholly unfair to a lot of hardworking men and women, the majority of whom, in my judgment, could be making more money if they were working elsewhere, and working under less stressful conditions and shorter hours.  It is of course possible that you were misquoted, and if that is the case, I urge you to quickly make that clear.  But if Mr. Orol accurately quoted you in referring to the people who work so hard in the public interest as "little punk staffers," I urge you to apologize to them.

I understand that you differ with what we and the majority are doing in what we believe is appropriate, tough regulation of the financial industry.  And of course you are free to defend that industry and work with them to try to defeat those regulations.  But picking on members of the staff is unworthy of you.  I urge you to confine your campaign against financial regulation to debates with other Members of Congress, and not engage in this sort of personal attack on staff members who, as you know, are constrained by our rules against even defending themselves from your name-calling.

BARNEY FRANK

From NBC's Ali Weinberg
White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs announced President Obama will be postponing until some time in June his trip to Indonesia and Australia which was scheduled for Sunday, March 21st

The president had originally been scheduled to leave on March 18th, but that was pushed back in order to stick around for the health care debate.

A vote is likely at this point to take place Sunday. And the president would then be able to sign it.

"It is clear that a final vote on health insurance reform cannot take place before Sunday afternoon," Gibbs said. "As a result, the president telephoned the leader of Indonesia and will call the leader of Australia later this afternoon and tell them that he must postpone his planned visits for a later date so that he can remain in Washington for this critical vote. The president now expects to visit Indonesia in June.

"The president greatly regrets the delay. Our international alliances are critical to America's security and economic progress. The passage of health insurance reform is of paramount importance and the president is determined to see this battle through."

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi gave a hint at what their proposed package of reconciliation fixes legislation will look like. She said the full bill should be posted online within the hour:

How would it be paid for:
- Cuts in "Medicare waste, fraud and abuse" totaling $500 billion
- Eliminating part of the Senate's proposed excise tax to include only a "Rolls Royce" excise tax on the most expensive, upper echelon health plans.
- A Medicare fee on "unearned income."

Some other "fixes":
- More "affordability" for the middle class
- Some members didn't like what they saw as state inequities (like the "special deals"). Instead, Pelosi said theree would be Medicaid reimbursements that are fairer to the rest of the states, including rewarding "do-gooder states," who have been out front making changes
- More insurance accountability
- Help primary care doctors who handle Medicaid cases
- Close the Medicare "donut hole"

Pelosi called the "self-executing" rule a "non-issue" and used in "regular" order and pointed to any number of times Republicans have used it -- though for nothing this large.

"We have played on their turf for so long," Pelosi said, adding, "Now they're going to be playing on the turf of the American people."

She continued, "We feel very strong in terms of where we are ... in terms of how we proceed" as well as the numbers provided by the CBO report.

She said Sunday's potential passage of health care "will sit comfortably with Social Security and Medicare.... This is history, and this is progress."

Here's the CBO's letter to Pelosi, per NBC's Shawna Thomas:

Please note that in the first page of the letter the CBO cautions that estimates presented are preliminary because the agency has not "thoroughly examined the reconiliation proposal to verify its consistency witht he previous draft."  Also I did not copy and paste the tables into this hot note.  those can be found at the link below:

March 18, 2010
Honorable Nancy Pelosi
Speaker
U.S. House of Representatives
Washington, DC 20515
Dear Madam Speaker:
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and the staff of the Joint Committee on
Taxation (JCT) have completed a preliminary estimate of the direct spending and revenue
effects of an amendment in the nature of a substitute to H.R. 4872, the Reconciliation Act
of 2010; that amendment (hereafter called "the reconciliation proposal") was made public
on March 18, 2010. The estimate is presented in three ways:
? An estimate of the budgetary effects of the reconciliation proposal, in combination
with the effects of H.R. 3590, the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act
(PPACA), as passed by the Senate;1
? An estimate of the incremental effects of the reconciliation proposal, over and
above the effects of enacting H.R. 3590 by itself;
? An estimate of the budgetary impact of the reconciliation proposal under the
assumption that H.R. 3590 is not enacted (that is, an estimate of the bill's impact
relative to current law as of today).
Although CBO completed a preliminary review of legislative language prior to its
release, the agency has not thoroughly examined the reconciliation proposal to verify its
consistency with the previous draft. This estimate is therefore preliminary, pending a
review of the language of the reconciliation proposal, as well as further review and
refinement of the budgetary projections.
The reconciliation proposal includes provisions related to health care and revenues, many
of which would amend H.R. 3590. It also includes amendments to the Higher Education
Act of 1965, which authorizes most federal programs involving postsecondary education.
1An estimate by CBO and JCT of the direct spending and revenue effects of H.R. 3590 as passed by the Senate was
provided in a letter to the Honorable Harry Reid on March 11, 2010. That estimate is available at www.cbo.gov (and
JCT's detailed table of revenue effects is available at www.jct.gov).
Honorable Nancy Pelosi
Page 2
CBO and JCT estimate that enacting both pieces of legislation-H.R. 3590 and the
reconciliation proposal- would produce a net reduction in federal deficits of $138
billion over the 2010-2019 period as result of changes in direct spending and revenue
(see the top panel of Table 1 and subtitle A of title II on Table 5). Approximately $85
billion of that reduction would be on-budget; other effects related to Social Security
revenues and spending as well as spending by the U.S. Postal Service are classified as
off-budget. CBO has not completed an estimate of the potential impact of the legislation
on discretionary spending, which would be subject to future appropriation action.
CBO and JCT previously estimated that enacting H.R. 3590 by itself would yield a net
reduction in federal deficits of $118 billion over the 2010-2019 period, of which about
$65 billion would be on-budget. The incremental effect of enacting the reconciliation
proposal-assuming that H.R. 3590 had already been enacted-would be the difference
between the estimate of the combined effect and the previous estimate for the Senatepassed
bill, H.R. 3590. That incremental effect is an estimated net reduction in federal
deficits of $20 billion over the 2010-2019 period over and above the savings from
enacting H.R. 3590 by itself; almost all of that reduction would be on-budget (see the
bottom panel of Table 1 and subtitle A of title II on Table 5).2
The budgetary impact of the reconciliation proposal if H.R. 3590 is not also enacted
would be different. Although estimates on that basis have been completed for most of the
provisions of the reconciliation proposal, CBO does not yet have such an estimate for all
of its provisions. By CBO's estimate, the provisions that have been analyzed so far would
reduce deficits by $82 billion over the 2010-2019 period (see Table 6).
Details on the budgetary effects of the health and revenue provisions of the reconciliation
proposal, along with its effects combined with H.R. 3590, are provided in Tables 1, 2,
and 3:
? Table 1 summarizes the effect on the deficit of the health and revenue provisions
of the reconciliation proposal combined with H.R. 3590; it also shows the net
incremental effect of those provisions of the reconciliation proposal over and
above the impact of enacting H.R. 3590 by itself.
? For the two pieces of legislation combined, Table 2 provides estimates of the
changes in the number of nonelderly people in the United States who would have
health insurance and presents the primary budgetary effects of the provisions
related to health insurance coverage.
2 The reconciliation proposal would require the Secretary of the Treasury to transfer amounts from the on-budget
general fund to the off-budget Social Security trust funds to offset any reduction in the balances of those trust funds
that would result from other provisions of the proposal. As a result, the off-budget changes estimated for that
proposal represent only its effect on outlays of the Postal Service.
Honorable Nancy Pelosi
Page 3
? For the two pieces of legislation combined, Table 3 displays detailed estimates of
the costs or savings from the health provisions that are not related to health
insurance coverage (primarily involving the Medicare program) and from certain
of the revenue provisions that are not related to insurance coverage. The table does
not include the effect on revenues of title IX, a set of tax provisions whose impact
is reported separately by JCT.
Tables 4 and 5 show the incremental budgetary effects of the reconciliation proposal
(except for title IX), over and above the effects of enacting H.R. 3590 by itself:
? Table 4 presents the incremental effects of the health and revenue provisions of
the reconciliation proposal---that is, the difference between the effects of the two
pieces of legislation combined and the effects of H.R. 3590 by itself (as shown in
CBO's March 11 letter to Senator Reid).
? Table 5 summarizes the incremental effects of the health, revenue, and education
provisions of the reconciliation proposal, also assuming that H.R. 3590 has been
enacted. (The impact of the health and revenue provisions is shown in more detail
in Table 4.)
Table 6 shows the estimated effect of enacting the reconciliation proposal relative to
current law---that is, assuming that H.R. 3590 is not enacted. That table does not include
some effects that have not yet been estimated.
Effects of the Legislation Beyond the First 10 Years
Although CBO does not generally provide cost estimates beyond the 10-year budget
projection period, certain Congressional rules require some information about the
budgetary impact of legislation in subsequent decades, and many Members have
requested CBO's analyses of the long-term budgetary impact of broad changes in the
nation's health care and health insurance systems. Therefore, CBO has developed a rough
outlook for the decade following the 2010-2019 period by grouping the elements of the
legislation into broad categories and (together with the staff of the Joint Committee on
Taxation) assessing the rate at which the budgetary impact of each of those broad
categories is likely to increase over time. Our analysis indicates that H.R. 3590, as passed
by the Senate, would reduce federal budget deficits over the ensuing decade relative to
those projected under current law-with a total effect during that decade that is in a broad
range between one-quarter percent and one-half percent of gross domestic product
(GDP).3 The imprecision of that calculation reflects the even greater degree of
uncertainty that attends to it, compared with CBO's 10-year budget estimates.
3 For a more extensive explanation of that analysis, see Congressional Budget Office, letter to the Honorable Harry
Reid regarding the longer-term effects of the manager's amendment to the Patient Protection and Affordable Care
Act (December 20, 2009).
Honorable Nancy Pelosi
Page 4
Using that same analytic approach, the combined effect of enacting H.R. 3590 and the
reconciliation bill would also be to reduce federal budget deficits over the ensuing decade
relative to those projected under current law-with a total effect during that decade that is
in a broad range around one-half percent of GDP. The incremental effect of enacting the
reconciliation bill (over and above the effect of enacting H.R. 3590 by itself) would thus
be to further reduce federal budget deficits in that decade, with a total effect that is in a
broad range between zero and one-quarter percent of GDP.
Relative to H.R. 3590, the reconciliation proposal would make a number of changes that
would affect its longer-term impact on the budget. In particular, it would increase the
subsidies offered in the new insurance exchanges and would reduce the impact of an
excise tax on health insurance plans with premiums above certain thresholds. An
important component of the longer-term analysis is that, beginning in 2019, the
reconciliation proposal would change the annual indexing provisions so that the premium
subsidies offered through the exchanges would grow more slowly; over time, the
spending on exchange subsidies would therefore fall back toward the level under H.R.
3590 by itself. Another key component of the longer-term analysis is that, beginning in
2020, the reconciliation proposal would index the thresholds for the high-premium excise
tax to the rate of general inflation rather than to inflation plus one percentage point.
CBO has not extrapolated estimates further into the future because the uncertainties
surrounding them are magnified even more. However, in view of the projected net
savings during the decade following the 10-year budget window, CBO anticipates that
the reconciliation proposal would probably continue to reduce budget deficits relative to
those under current law in subsequent decades, assuming that all of its provisions would
continue to be fully implemented.
Congressional rules governing the consideration of reconciliation bills also require an
assessment of their budgetary impact separately by title. The effects of the reconciliation
proposal over the 2010-2019 period are shown in Table 5, assuming that H.R. 3590 is
also enacted). CBO's analysis of the longer-term effects, by title, is as follows:
? Most of the changes to H.R. 3590 that have significant budgetary effects would be
made by title I of the reconciliation proposal, so the conclusions about the longerterm
impact for the proposal as a whole-that it would reduce deficits, relative to
H.R. 3590-also apply to that title.
? The changes regarding health care contained in title II have a smaller budgetary
impact than those in title I, and would by themselves increase budget deficits
somewhat. That title also contains the proposal's education provisions, which
CBO estimates would reduce future deficits. In CBO's estimation, the savings
generated by the education provisions would continue to outweigh the costs
Honorable Nancy Pelosi
Page 5
related to health care stemming from title II, so that the title as a whole would
continue to reduce the budget deficit in future years.
CBO has not yet completed an assessment of the impact for the longer term of enacting
the reconciliation proposal by itself.
I hope this analysis is helpful for the Congress's deliberations. If you have any questions,
please contact me or CBO staff. The primary staff contacts for this analysis are Philip
Ellis and Holly Harvey.
Sincerely,
Douglas W. Elmendorf
Director
Enclosures
cc: Honorable John A. Boehner
Republican Leader
Honorable John M. Spratt Jr.
Chairman
Committee on the Budget
Honorable Paul Ryan
Ranking Member
Honorable Harry Reid
Senate Majority Leader
Honorable Mitch McConnell
Senate Republican Leader
Honorable Kent Conrad
Chairman
Senate Committee on the Budget
Honorable Judd Gregg
Ranking Member

From NBC's Andrea Mitchell and Courtney Kube
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton TWICE brushed off questions about whether Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has called her yet with a response to U.S. objections to a new housing development in East Jerusalem.

Asked whether Netanyahu has called yet, Clinton said, "When there is something to announce ... you'll be the first to hear."

Despite the fact that Netanyahu continues to brush off Clinton, she said that the ongoing disagreement between the U.S. and Israel will not impact her end goal at the quartet meeting.

"Our goals remain the same, it is to re-launch negotiations between the Israelis and the Palestinians on a path that will lead to a two-state solution," she said, adding, "nothing has happened that in any way effects out commitment to pursuing that."

Clinton confirmed that George Mitchell, the U.S. Envoy to the Middle East, arrived in Moscow earlier today to attend the quartet meeting tomorrow.

*** UPDATE *** Sources say that Netanyahu spoke with Clinton at around 3:30 pm ET today in Moscow. And they agreed to meet in Washington when Netanyahu is here on Monday for meetings with AIPAC, the American pro-Israel advocacy group.

From NBC's Athena Jones
WASHINGTON -- President Obama said Congressional Budget Office estimates showed the health-care bill would have a have a significant impact on the deficit, citing that as one more reason to support the legislation.

The CBO estimates the bill would cost $940 billion over a decade and that it would cut the deficit by $130 billion in the first 10 years and some $1.2 trillion in the second 10 years.

"That makes this legislation the most significant effort to reduce deficits since the Balanced Budget Act in the 1990s," Obama said during a Rose Garden signing ceremony for a jobs bill. "This is but one virtue of a reform that will bring new accountability to the insurance industry and greater economic security for all Americans, so I urge every member of Congress to consider this as they prepare for their important vote this weekend.

The White House expects the House of Representatives to vote on the Senate's version of the health-care bill this weekend, the first step in the process of getting it to his desk. The president has delayed his trip to Indonesia and Australia by three days and he and White House aides have been working with Democratic leaders on Capitol Hill to wrangle the 216 votes needed to ensure House passage before his scheduled departure on Sunday.

Obama used today's ceremony to thank members of Congress from both parties for working together to pass legislation aimed at putting Americans back to work -- a rare moment of bipartisan cooperation at a time of fierce partisanship. The Senate vote on the jobs bill was 68-29 with 11 Republicans voting in favor. Republicans are unanimously opposed to the health-care bill, however, and have been highly critical of Democratic tactics for pushing it through the House.

"I'm also gratified that over a dozen Republicans agreed that the need for this jobs bill was urgent, and that they were willing to break out of the partisan morass to help us take this forward step for the American people," he said. "I hope this is a prelude to further cooperation in the days and months to come, as we continue to work on digging our way out of the recession and rebuilding our economy in a way that works for all Americans and not just some Americans."

While acknowledging the $17.6 billion jobs bill was "by no means enough" and that more must be done to jump-start hiring in the private sector, the president said the measures included in the bill would help. Under the legislation, businesses that hire someone who has been unemployed for at least two months would have their payroll taxes forgiven, companies would be allowed to write off investments they make in equipment this year and municipal bonds would be used to increase investment in schools and clean energy projects. The bill includes infrastructure investments aimed at boosting hiring in the construction industry.

From NBC's Mark Murray
At the beginning of his event to sign a jobs bill into law, President Obama touted the new Congressional Budget Office numbers on the health-care bill -- which show the legislation cuts the deficit by $130 billion over 10 years and $1.2 trillion in the following 10 years.

Obama called the bill "the most significant effort to reduce the deficit since the balanced-budget efforts of the 1990s." He concluded, "I urge every member of Congress to consider this as they prepare for their important vote this weekend."

But hold on a second...

Rep. Paul Ryan, ranking member of the House Budget Committee, released this statement on the news about the Congressional Budget Office score of the health-care bill:

The Congressional Budget Office has confirmed that there is currently no official cost estimate. Yet House Democrats are touting to the press – and spinning for partisan gain – numbers that have not been released and are impossible to confirm. Rep. James Clyburn stated he was "giddy" about these unsubstantiated numbers. This is the latest outrageous exploitation by the Majority – in this case abusing the confidentiality of the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office – to pass their massive health care overhaul at any cost.

Indeed, the CBO's letter to Speaker Nancy Pelosi says the numbers are preliminary.

Although CBO completed a preliminary review of legislative language prior to its
release, the agency has not thoroughly examined the reconciliation proposal to verify its consistency with the previous draft. This estimate is therefore preliminary, pending a
review of the language of the reconciliation proposal, as well as further review and
refinement of the budgetary projections.

The CBO score is in… Do the numbers influence House Dems who voted against last year's House bill and also against the Stupak amendment?... NBC/WSJ poll finds that a third of the country knows "a lot" about the filibuster procedure… Jobs bill sent to Obama's desk, which he plans to sign today… Whitman inches ahead of Brown in new CA Field Poll… And MSNBC's "Daily Rundown" interviews Tom Daschle and Bart Stupak.

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg

*** Start the clock, CBO is in: BREAKING NEWS: We just got the Congressional Budget Office score. The legislation's total price tag is $940 billion over 10 years, and it reduces the deficit by $130 billion over 10 years and $1.2 trillion over the next 10 years. Per NBC's Kelly O'Donnell this news means that we'll likely have a final vote on Sunday at noon ET. The CBO report was seen as potentially the last thing standing in the way of passage. We're told that the White House and House Dem leaders are fewer than five votes away from 216, after Dennis Kucinich's no-to-yes switch yesterday and pro-life Dem Dale Kildee saying that he's ok with the Senate bill's abortion language. On-the-fence House Democrats like retiring Rep. Brian Baird, who voted no on last year's House bill, have been saying they need to see the CBO score -- and a good score. Baird, as the Washington Post writes, "said he stands by what he told Obama: He still needs to see the specifics of the new House bill, including a forthcoming analysis from the Congressional Budget Office."

*** The prime no-to-yes targets: Baird, according to our count, is one of at least 14 House Democrats who voted against last year's House bill and also against the anti-abortion Stupak amendment. Consequently, these are folks that the White House could be able to convince to vote for the same Senate bill that Ben Nelson, Mary Landrieu, and even Blanche Lincoln supported. Remember, the Senate bill has no public option, and it reduces costs more than the House bill did. Of course, the politics on health care drastically changed on health care after Scott Brown's Senate victory in January. These are the 14 Dems we counted who voted no on Stupak and no on last year's House bill: Adler (NJ), Baird (WA), Boyd (FL), Edwards (TX), Herseth Sandlin (SD), Kissell (NC), Kosmas (FL), Kratovil (MD), Kucinich (OH, who switched yesterday), Markey (CO), McMahon (NY), Minnick (ID), Murphy (NY), and Nye (VA). 

*** A third of the nation is highly engaged: According to our latest NBC/WSJ poll, one-third say they know "a lot" about the filibuster procedure in the Senate. And these folks are split on whether reconciliation should be used to bypass a filibuster on health care: 44% of them say they favor Democrats using the procedure, while 42% say they oppose it. These folks are the people in the country that are paying a significant amount of attention to the health-care debate. By comparison, a combined 40% said they haven't heard/seen anything or much about reconciliation. We'll dig more into this sub-group later, but think of them as the unofficial opinion leaders of the country -- the most informed. It's a larger group than some might have believed.

*** Lost: Lost in the intense focus on the health-care debate was this news from yesterday: "In a rare bipartisan vote, the Senate approved and sent to President Obama on Wednesday a bill intended to spur employment by providing businesses with incentives to hire new workers -- an approach that Congressional Democrats hope to repeat," the New York Times reports. "The legislation, approved 68 to 29, would give employers an exemption from payroll taxes through the end of 2010 on workers they hire who have been unemployed for at least 60 days. It also extends the federal highway construction program, shifts $20 billion to road and bridge building and takes other steps to bolster public improvement projects." This passage yesterday is the reason why the White House needs to get health-care passed ASAP. The health-care debate is drowning out all news, even news on the economy. By the way, the DSCC has a Web ad hitting Republicans who voted against the legislation.

*** Just one of the guys? It's worth remembering that, despite the angry town halls and all the boisterous Tea Party rallies, the GOP's biggest success stories in 2009 and early 2010 were Bob McDonnell, Chris Christie, and Scott Brown. One thing they all had in common -- beyond winning their races in blue and purple states -- was not directly criticizing President Obama. Why are we mentioning this? Because the Republican candidate running for Obama's old Senate seat in the blue state of Illinois, Mark Kirk (R), was caught on tape at a closed-press fundraiser saying that Republicans were "on the way to making this guy a one-termer," referring to Obama. Kirk also said he would lead the effort to repeal health care. Well, Alexi Giannoulias' campaign and the White House fired back. Said David Axelrod in a statement: "Given the great challenges America, and families across Illinois face today, the last thing we need is another Republican senator in Washington who is more focused on tearing down the President than he is on solving problems." Honest question: With his primary over, why is Kirk playing to the base and not the middle, even at fundraisers?

*** Whitman inches ahead of Brown: In California's gubernatorial contest, a new Field Poll shows Meg Whitman (R) leading former Gov. Jerry Brown (D) by three points in a hypothetical match-up, 46%-43%. Brown had held double-digit leads in previous Field polls. Of course, Whitman's been on the air to support her primary bid, and Brown has not. Also, the typical response we're hearing from Democrats on this poll is that the undecided vote will likely break Brown's way in this blue state, and that Whitman hasn't really been that great of a candidate. But remember that we heard similar stuff about the undecided vote in New Jersey and Chris Christie. And guess what -- Christie won.

*** More midterm news: In Arkansas, Blanche Lincoln has a new TV ad touting her work on the Senate Ag Committee (compare that with the recent Michael Bennet in which he didn't say he was running for the Senate!)… In Connecticut, Linda McMahon is now leading Rob Simmons, according to a new Quinnipiac poll (does this mean that McMahon will finally start receiving the scrutiny the front-runner often gets?)… And in New York, a Democrat is switching parties to run for the GOP nomination for New York governor.

Countdown to IA, UT filing deadlines: 1 day
Countdown to IN, NC, and OH primaries: 47 days
Countdown to NE and WV primaries: 54 days
Countdown to AR, KY, OR and PA primaries: 61 days
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 229 days

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President Obama signs the jobs bill into law today.

"In a rare bipartisan vote, the Senate approved and sent to President Obama on Wednesday a bill intended to spur employment by providing businesses with incentives to hire new workers -- an approach that Congressional Democrats hope to repeat," the New York Times notes. "The legislation, approved 68 to 29, would give employers an exemption from payroll taxes through the end of 2010 on workers they hire who have been unemployed for at least 60 days. It also extends the federal highway construction program, shifts $20 billion to road and bridge building and takes other steps to bolster public improvement projects."

In his FOX interview, Obama said this about the self-executing rule: "I don't spend a lot of time worrying about what the procedural rules are in the House or Senate. What I can tell you is that the vote that's taken in the House will be a vote for health-care reform… If people vote yes, whatever form that takes, that is going to be a vote for health-care reform. And I don't think we should pretend otherwise. And if they don't, if they vote against it, then they're going to be voting against health-care reform, and they're going to be voting in favor of the status quo." He added, "And yes, I have said that this is an ugly process. It was ugly when Republicans were in charge. It was ugly when Democrats were in charge." 

President Obama defended the plan to give Medicaid money to Louisiana. "The so-called 'Louisiana purchase' would give extra Medicaid funding to any state in which every county has been declared a disaster area. Louisiana would qualify due to Hurricane Katrina," The Hill writes. "Hawaii may also qualify due to the recent earthquake."

The Hill says the Fox interview with Obama got "combative." From the article: "Fox News's exclusive interview with President Obama airing [last night] is notably combative, with a frustrated President Obama repeatedly lamenting that Fox's Bret Baier won't let him finish his sentences.'Bret, let me finish my answers here,' Obama said at one point."

"The dominoes started falling into place for House Democratic leaders whipping their health care overhaul Wednesday, with a slow trickle of key undecided Members announcing their support for the bill or signaling they were leaning that way," Roll Call writes. "With a Congressional Budget Office score and text of the reconciliation bill imminent but still elusive, several undecided Democrats continued to cite the need to read the final text before declaring how they would vote. As of Wednesday evening, Democratic leaders were eyeing a best-case scenario for final passage on Saturday. But they are looking to post the bill text 72 hours before the vote, and as the hours ticked by with no such language publicly available, a vote on Sunday or later appeared increasingly likely." 

The New York Times: "House Democrats are inching toward the majority they need to pass health care legislation, giving them added confidence as they work out the last details of the bill and gird for a showdown as soon as this weekend. House Democrats are inching toward the majority they need to pass health care legislation, giving them added confidence as they work out the last details of the bill and gird for a showdown as soon as this weekend." 

"Roman Catholic opposition to the health care overhaul package is crumbling, with some church officials and lawmakers concluding that their long-sought goal of health care overhaul trumps the desire to adopt the severest restrictions on abortion funding," the Boston Globe writes. "A coalition of 59,000 nuns released a letter yesterday calling on Congress to approve the overhaul, defying the US Conference of Catholic Bishops, which opposes the measure. The Catholic Health Association, which represents 1,200 Catholic hospitals, has endorsed the package, as have Catholics United and Catholic groups promoting social justice. That split mirrors a division among some antiabortion US representatives." 

"Idaho is leading the charge in a states-rights push to defeat a proposal in Congress that would require people to buy health insurance, a key piece of reforms being pushed by President Barack Obama," the AP writes. "Republican Gov. C.L. 'Butch' Otter used a ceremony Wednesday afternoon to become the first governor to sign into law a measure requiring the state attorney general to sue the federal government over any such insurance mandates. There's similar legislation pending in 37 other states."

"House Republicans leaders will attempt Thursday to force a vote on a resolution that would block Democrats from deeming the Senate health care reform bill as passed," Roll Call writes, adding, "The procedural maneuver will come after a closed-door, bicameral Republican Conference meeting that is scheduled to take place at 9:45 a.m. Thursday inside the House chamber."

ARKANSAS: Sen. Blanche Lincoln launches a new TV ad, touting her role as chair of the Senate Agriculture Committee.

CALIFORNIA: "[Jerry] Brown, the state attorney general who held double-digit leads over Whitman in Field Poll surveys taken in October and January, now trails the former eBay Inc. chief executive by 43 percent to 46 percent in a two-way matchup," Reuters writes. "Whitman also widened her advantage over her rival for the Republican nomination, state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner, 63 percent to 14 percent."

And "[former Rep. Tom] Campbell leading former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina 28 percent to 22 percent among likely Republican voters in the June 8 primary, while Assemblyman Chuck DeVore had support from 9 percent," the Fresno Bee writes. 

CONNECTICUT: "Former World Wrestling Entertainment CEO Linda McMahon, who has spent millions on TV and radio ads and glossy mailers, now leads the GOP field in the U.S. Senate race [with 44% of registered voters], a new Quinnipiac University poll found," although McMahon still trails Democratic candidate and Attorney General Richard Blumenthal by 30 points, the Hartford Courant reports.

FLORIDA: "The pitched wrangling over healthcare legislation broke into the U.S. Senate campaign Wednesday as Gov. Charlie Crist pressed his potential Democratic rival, Rep. Kendrick Meek, to oppose the bill," the Miami Herald writes. 

ILLINOIS: The White House "roared back" at Rep. Mark Kirk after he said at a fundraising event that "if President Obama signs a health insurance reform bill into law--and if he is elected to the Senate--he would 'lead the effort' for its repeal," the Chicago Sun-Times writes. White House senior adviser David Axelrod told the Sun-Times he found Kirk's remarks "disappointing." 

NEW YORK: "David Paterson's appointment of Senator Kirsten Gillibrand took its latest weird turn today, when Don Imus asked the governor about whether Gillibrand had thrown him under the bus when she suggested he resign in the wake of allegations he'd involved himself in domestic violence charges against an aide," Politico writes. When asked whether he had talked to Gillibrand, Paterson said "It's hard to talk to anyone when you're under a bus."

Paterson's press secretary quit, "the fifth member of Team Paterson to bolt amid mushrooming scandals," the New York Daily News writes.

And: "A governor's race that seemed all but settled is about to be upended again, by a popular Democrat from Long Island who is set to announce that he is switching parties. The move is certain to excite Republican leaders pessimistic about their party's hopes this fall. Those leaders believe that the official, Steve Levy, a blunt-spoken fiscal hawk and contrarian who collected 96 percent of the vote in his last re-election bid, can tap into the public's anti-incumbent sentiment and frustration with Albany's overspending."

From msnbc.com's Carrie Dann, Tom Curry and NBC's Ken Strickland
Democratic lawmakers hope that they are about to begin the finale of their intricate, year-long dance towards passing a comprehensive overhaul of the nation's health insurance system.

If the music and lyrics seem a little baffling to you, you're not alone. Deeming? Whipping? Reconciling? Even staff members on Capitol Hill are trying to keep the steps straight: Whip, vote, vote, sign, debate, vote, sign.

If you want to dance along, here are the steps that must happen for the whole process to be completed: whip, vote, vote, sign, debate, vote, sign.

Read the full guide here.

From NBC's Mark Murray and Domenico Montanaro
Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet (D) isn't the only sitting Democratic lawmaker running for the Senate this year who's portraying himself as a Washington outsider ("I've been in Washington for only a year, but it didn't take that long to see the whole place is broken," he says in a new TV ad).

Paul Hodes (D), a two-term New Hampshire congressman who's vying for the state's open Senate seat, echoed that message in an interview today with First Read. "I've been in Washington long enough to see what's broken, but not long enough to be contaminated," he said after describing his opposition to earmarks and his support of ways to reduce the deficit.

When more than three in four Americans disapprove of Congress' job and in a political environment that does not favor Democrats, Bennet and Hodes clearly see this inside-outside strategy as their path to victory.

And Missouri Senate candidate Robin Carnahan (D) -- whose mother and brother all serve or have served in Congress -- is playing the outsider card, too. "Last night's Senate vote against reining in earmarks shows how badly broken Washington really is," she said in a statement. "At a time when all of us in Missouri are tightening our belts, Washington ought to be doing the same.

But Republicans aren't letting Hodes, who was elected in the Democratic wave of 2006, play this inside-outside game without a fight. "In a state that prides itself on its fiscally conservative values, Paul Hodes' blind partisan support for the stimulus boondoggle and government-run health care is completely out of step with many New Hampshire voters," said National Republican Senatorial Committee spokesman Brian Walsh. "Judging by his low poll numbers, it seems Granite State voters believe Hodes has been in Washington for too long and they're tired of the Democrats' out-of-control spending agenda, which Hodes has unabashedly supported in Congress."

In addition to his  inside-outside strategy, Hodes said his general election contest -- against a GOP field including former state Attorney General Kelly Ayotte, attorney Ovide Lamontagne, and businessmen William Binnie -- "is going to be about important choices." Such as:
-- cracking down on health insurance companies vs. protecting them
-- fighting for working families vs. aiding greed on Wall Street
-- trying to curb climate change vs. denying its science
-- protecting a woman's right to choose an abortion vs. restricting that right. 

Hodes acknowledged he is likely down by high single digits to Ayotte, but she is facing a competitive GOP primary. ("I don't think this is a wind-at-my-back election," said Hodes, who cast himself as "the guy in the barn coat.") And he sees "some improvement in the atmosphere" for Democrats -- at least marginally -- before the fall election. "Since Massachusetts," Hodes said, "there has been a bottoming out over the last couple of weeks." He added, "Health-care reform will pass, and that'll be helpful." And he predicted the economy would at least not "get a lot worse."

Also in the interview, Hodes said he was leaning to vote for the health-care legislation that the House will soon consider, although he added he's waiting for the score from the Congressional Budget Office. "I'm certainly leaning 'yes,'" he said.

"I believe health-care reform is a jobs bill, especially for small businesses... It is the right thing to do."

From NBC's Pete Williams
Is the way the House apparently plans to vote on the health-care bill constitutional? The Senate passed its version in December. Now the House must decide whether to accept what the Senate did and send it on to the president so it can become law.

First, the method. A bill coming to the House floor for a final vote needs a ticket for admission. It gets one from the House Rules Committee, which dictates whether and how it can be amended. When the bill comes up on the floor, the House votes first on the rule and then on the actual bill.

Here's what the Democratic leadership is apparently proposing to do when the House gets its turn to vote on the Senate version of the health care bill. The House will focus its attention on a package of changes to the Senate version, one that would eliminate the special deals for certain states and other provisions objectionable to a majority of the House.

Like any bill in the House, the package with the changes will need a rule. It will say that by adopting the rule for how to debate the changes package the House also deems the Senate version of the health care bill to have passed the House.

This wink-wink procedure is rare, but it has been used by both parties in the House to pass a bill and send it on to the president. But is it constitutional?

The Supreme Court has never ruled on this deem and pass procedure. It did suggest in a 1998 case that when the House votes on a Senate bill, it must vote on "precisely the same text" passed by the Senate. Many conservative legal scholars believe that means deem and pass would be unconstitutional, because the House rule would not be exactly what the Senate passed and would include the package of fixes.

Some liberal legal scholars believe this isn't so clear. One has even said that if the deem and pass rule explicitly said that the House was approving the Senate provision, it would be good enough because it would provide the accountability the Constitution demands.

Normally, the courts are reluctant to wade into political disputes. For that reason, some scholars believe the Supreme Court wouldn't want to touch it. Some Democrats point to a 2007 decision by the federal appeals court in Washington which held that the courts should not inquire into the internal mechanics of how Congress passes its bills. The appeals court based its decision on an 1892 U.S. Supreme Court ruling, which said as long as the leaders of both houses of Congress attest that a bill has been passed, such a declaration should be deemed "unimpeachable" by the courts.

But the U.S. Supreme Court itself has said, in a more recent ruling, that the rule of deference to Congress does not apply when a constitutional provision is at issue. For that reason, some legal scholars believe the Supreme Court might not be so reluctant to take up a challenge if a lawsuit is filed over the health care vote.

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
You think Rahm Emanuel is tough?

The vote on health care is getting close, and President Obama may have a new secret weapon to shore up the votes -- Kansas State men's basketball coach Frank Martin. Martin is fiery. Describing him as intense may be an understatement.

"He's a scary dude," Obama said of Martin, as he laid out his NCAA Tournament bracket on ESPN. ESPN's Andy Katz suggested Martin perhaps should work for the Secret Service.

"I could use him," Obama said, but for something else. "I could send him up to Congress to get 'em to vote for health care."

As featured on MSNBC's Daily Rundown, Obama picked Kansas (not K-State) to win the national championship -- though he does have K-State in the Final Four (but losing to its intra-state rival). Kansas is going to be a popular pick to win the NCAA tournament this year. Obama also went with the favorite last year -- the University of North Carolina. Carolina won convincingly.

Carolina, in a rebuilding year this year. will be in the NIT. But Carolina fans can take SOME solace in that Obama GRUDGINGLY put the Blue Devils in the Elite Eight, losing to Villanova. (He attributed putting Duke that far because of his loyalty to body man Reggie Love, a former Duke player.)

Obama goes out on a limb with some of his first-round picks: 13th-seeded Murray State over fourth-seeded Vanderbilt; No. 13 Siena over No. 4 Purdue; and No. 12 Cornell over No. 5 Temple.

The Siena upset will be a popular one since (1) Siena is really good; and (2) Purdue lost its best player and looked woeful in its last outing.

Here's Obama's segment on ESPN:

And here in the Political Unit, we're big basketball fans. Here are our Final Four picks:

Deputy Political Director Mark Murray: Kansas (champion), Syracuse, Kentucky (finalist), Villanova.

Political Reporter Domenico Montanaro: Kansas (champion), Syracuse, Kentucky (finalist), Louisville.

From NBC's Ken Strickland
Senate Democrats will hold a closed-door meeting this afternoon to ensure they can hold up their end of the process to pass some fixes in the health-care reform bill. House Democrats have been skeptical their Senate colleagues will be able to close the deal after the House passes its bills later this week.

"From our point of view, it would be unfair to ask the House to vote unless we could get it done, too," Sen. Chuck Schumer, the chamber's No. 3 Democrat, said today.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi had repeatedly said her members need assurances, in writing, that the Senate will pass a "fixes" bill that addresses the concerns of her members. But based on reconciliation rules in the Senate and unified GOP opposition, there is NO GUARANTEE Senate Democrats can keep a fixes bill intact.

When Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid was asked by reporters earlier today what type of written assurances he could give the House he said, "We'll see." Schumer had the same "We'll see" response when the question was put to him.

"Nancy [Pelosi] is moving along very well, but she certainly wants some assurances -- in one form or another -- that we will move after she moves and that's what caucus is about," Schumer said.

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
President Obama's personal lobbying of Rep. Dennis Kucinich, one of the staunchest advocates of a single-payer system and who opposed the House bill in the first go round from the left, has apparently worked.

"I have decided to cast a vote in favor of the legislation," Kucinich said at a Capitol Hill news conference this morning. He said he'd made the decision after "careful discussions" with Obama, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and his wife.

He said he doesn't believe this bill moves toward what he'd prefer -- a single-payer system -- but he hopes it moves "in the direction of comprehensive reform."

Kucinich invoked Obama going to his district, the work his local office does with constituents, his personal battle with Crohn's Disease and the historic nature of the pending vote.

"There are those who believe health care is a privilge and not a right," Kucinich said, adding, "This is what President Obama is dealing with."

He continued, "His visit to my district underscored the importance" of this debate.

Kucinich noted that he has argued strongly for a single-payer system. "My criticism of the legislation has been well reported. ... I do not retract those criticisms."

But, he said, "I know I have to make a decision -- not on the bill as I would like to see it, but as it is."

Obama invited Kucinich to ride on Air Force One before his health-care event in Ohio, in Kucinich's own district. At that event, Obama, with the help of an audience member, goaded Kucinich to vote for the bill.

New NBC/WSJ poll shows a divided nation on health care and Obama… But eight out of 10 Americans agree that Congress is broken… Poll also shows GOP gaining ground on issues like health care and the economy, and taking the lead on the deficit and taxes… Setting everyone straight on "deem and pass"… Dennis the Menace or Dennis the Hero?... Blanche Lincoln unveils tough response TV ad… And Romanoff bests Bennet in last night's Colorado caucuses, but it perhaps wasn't enough to make the case that Bennet is unacceptable to state activists.

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** A divided nation: From 2001 to 2005, political analysts were often fond of describing the country as a 50-50, or maybe 51-49, nation. The Democratic routs in '06 and '08 scuttled that kind of talk, but our new NBC/WSJ poll might bring it back. In the survey, the public is split on whether Congress should pass the health-care bill (46%-45%), on President Obama's approval rating (48%-47%), and on which political party would do a better job handling the economy (31%-31%). In the short term, the partisan divide could end up helping Obama and the Democrats, especially on health care. NBC/WSJ co-pollster Peter Hart (D) argues that Democrats' strong support of health care -- they think it's a good idea by a 64%-16% margin -- could ultimately persuade on-the-fence Dem congressmen to back the legislation. But in the long term, Obama did promise to usher in a new, post-partisan age. And looking at our poll, it sure looks more like the country after the '00 election or even the '04 one.

*** But eight out of 10 Americans agree…: But if the country is divided on health care and Obama, there is one thing all Americans -- including majorities of Dems, Republicans, independents -- agree on: Congress is broken. In the poll, just 17% approve of Congress' job, while a whopping 77% disapprove. Given the choice, half of respondents say they would vote to defeat every single member of Congress, including their own representative. And asked which one or two phrases best described their feelings about Congress, the top four responses were all negative: only interested in staying in office (37%), too close to special interest groups (28%), too partisan (19%), and supporting pork projects and waste (16%). Perhaps this is why rookie Sen. Michael Bennet (D) in his first TV ad does everything possible to distance himself from Washington. Not only does he not mention his party (a common practice in many races this year), he doesn't even mention the office he sits in or is running for; the only hint is a chyron that says "U.S. senator."

*** GOP gaining ground: Maybe the most striking finding in the poll is the ground the GOP has gained on the issues. Not yet 14 months since Bush left office, Republicans have pulled even with Democrats on which party better handles the economy (31%-31%), have moved ahead on reducing the deficit (30%-24%) and taxes (36%-25%), and have maintained their edge on combating terrorism (36%-22%). Democrats lead on health care by nine points (although that down from their 36-point lead back in Jan. 2008) and by 24 points on global warming (down from 45 points in Jan. 2008). And demonstrating the Obama White House's communication failures, check this out: By a 46%-45% margin, Americans DON'T believe the U.S. economy would have gone into a greater economic downturn without the stimulus.

*** To deem the impossible deem: Want to know one of the reasons why 77% disapprove of Congress? It's because there has been more attention on process and sausage-making than there has ever been. And the latest process story, as we wrote yesterday, is "deem and pass" or the "self-executing" rule. We have noticed some of our media brethren note that "deem and pass" is bypassing or skipping a vote that's required (like on the Senate health-care bill). That's not true; there will be a vote on it when the House adopts the rules of debate for the reconciliation bill. The best way to describe the process is that "deem and pass" avoids a direct or explicit vote. By the way, congressional scholar Norm Ornstein notes that Republicans frequently used "deem and pass" when they were in the majority. And as Time's Tumulty writes, Democrats like Steny Hoyer complained about the process when they were in the minority. Proving a new (or is it old?) Washington axiom these days, everyone's a hypocrite, especially the other guy.

*** Dennis, the Menace -- or hero? This could either give the Obama White House and House Democrats some momentum on passing health care, or it could be a poke in the eye: At 10:00 am ET, Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D) holds a press conference to announce how he'll vote on the bill. Despite being one of the most liberal members in the House, Kucinich voted against the original House bill. Why? Because it wasn't liberal enough. No one knows what the congressman will say today. His office told First Read yesterday he was a "firm no." But at the same time as his office was saying that, he was being lobbied by President Obama on Air Force One and called out to "Vote Yes!" at Obama's event in his congressional district. This would be a real slap in the president's face if Kucinich decided to hold a press conference and re-state his opposition.

*** Midterm news: In Arkansas, Blanche Lincoln is up with a tough response ad to the negative advertisement that labor groups are airing in the state. Like Bennet's ad above, Lincoln's distances herself from Washington and tries to make Halter's support look like it's coming from out-of-state folks; this was always the danger for Halter that his campaign could get painted as a bunch of outsiders (in orange caps?) invading Arkansas. … In California, today is the filing deadline… And in Colorado, Andrew Romanoff defeated Bennet in the state's caucuses. But it was far from a knockout blow -- Romanoff needed to make the case that Bennet was unacceptable to state party activists. He didn't appear do that. By the way, don't overlook the fact that Jane Norton's campaign couldn't keep a Tea Party activist from getting a place on the primary ballot, either.

Countdown to IA, UT filing deadlines: 2 days
Countdown to IN, NC, and OH primaries: 48 days
Countdown to NE and WV primaries: 55 days
Countdown to AR, KY, OR and PA primaries: 62 days
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 230 days

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Here's the Wall Street Journal's take on the new NBC/WSJ poll: "[O]pinions have solidified around the health-care legislation, with 48% calling it a 'bad idea' and 36% viewing it as a 'good idea' when presented with a choice between those two. That gap is consistent with surveys dating to the fall. At the same time, Democratic voters strongly favor the legislation being pushed by President Barack Obama, particularly constituencies such as blacks, Latinos and self-described liberals. Those groups mobilized in 2008 to help elect Mr. Obama, but are far less enthusiastic than core Republicans about voting in this year's midterm elections."

"The survey found a 21-point enthusiasm gap between the parties, with 67% of Republicans saying they are very interested in the November elections, compared with 46% of Democrats. 'If the Democrats are going to close that gap, they've got to get their people excited. And I don't see how you get those people if you vote no' on the party's health-care legislation, said Democratic pollster Peter Hart, who conducted the survey with Republican Bill McInturff." 

Here's our take: "As Congress prepares for a crucial and possibly decisive vote on the fate of President Barack Obama's health care plan, the American public is evenly divided about whether the legislation should be passed or rejected, according to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. Americans are also split on which would be worse for their congressional representative's re-election chances -- a vote for the overhaul bill or a vote against it."

"And they're divided on Obama's overall job performance, as well as -- for the first time in six years -- whether the Democratic Party or the Republican Party better handles the economy. But they overwhelmingly agree on this: The nation is on the wrong track, the economy has negatively affected the country, and Congress is broken."

Roll Call looks at the pending Supreme Court fight with Justice John Paul Stevens indicating he plans to leave the court within the next three years.

"Attorney General Eric Holder told Congress yesterday that Osama bin Laden will never face trial in the United States because he will not be captured alive," the AP says. "In testy exchanges with House Republicans, he compared bin Laden to mass killer Charles Manson, and predicted events would ensure 'we will be reading Miranda rights to the corpse of Osama bin Laden,' not to the al Qaeda leader as a captive. Holder sternly rejected criticism from GOP members of a House Appropriations subcommittee, who contend it is too dangerous to put terrorists on trial in federal civilian courts."

Here's our explainer on how the "Self-Executing Rule," a.k.a. "Deem and Pass works": The health-care bill would be voted on INDIRECTLY, tucked into what's known as "the rule." The rule essentially outlines the rules for an upcoming vote -- in this case, it would be the vote on the package of reconciliation fixes. By passing "the rule," the House also would "deem" the Senate bill passed (with a "hereby" statement. "We hereby deem..."). The House would then vote on the package of reconciliation fixes. 

Here's how the New York Times describes "Deem and Pass." (Note the use of the word explicit when describing whether or not there's a vote): "House Democrats are so skittish about the piece of legislation that is now the vehicle for overhauling the health care system -- the bill passed by the Senate in December -- that they are considering a maneuver that would allow them to pass it without explicitly voting for it. Under that approach, House Democrats would approve a package of changes to the Senate bill in a budget reconciliation bill. The Senate bill would be 'deemed passed' if and when the House adopts rules for debate on the reconciliation bill -- or perhaps when the House passes that reconciliation bill." 

Roll Call: "House Republicans had Democratic leaders tied in knots Tuesday trying to defend a special rule to enact the Senate's health care bill without a separate vote, even as Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) insisted she had not yet decided whether to use it." More: "Democratic leaders broadly projected confidence that they were building toward majority support and passage in short order. But the only thing certain on Tuesday was how uncertain the leadership team continued to be on all the particulars -- of support, process and timing." And: "On timing, Clyburn said in an interview with McClatchy Newspapers over the weekend that the vote could slide past Easter Sunday -- April 4 -- while others said they believe the package can clear the chamber late this week."  

"Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and her lieutenants had not released new bill text or a score from the Congressional Budget Office (CB0), triggering speculation that the vote may not occur this week," The Hill notes. And: "Hoping to take advantage of the information vacuum, more than 125 House Republicans delivered speeches on the floor, lambasting Democrats on both policy and process." The story also has a detailed look at where undecided members stand. And here's its updated whip count.

Anyone who thought Sen. Blanche Lincoln would move left in the Senate because of her primary challenge, think again. Yesterday, she called out the House for considering "Deem and Pass." "Arkansans and most Americans are demanding more accountability from Washington, not less, so I believe that any plan to approve major reform without actually voting for it simply won't fly outside the beltway," she said in a statement, adding, "The House should vote on the Senate health bill under normal rules. "I noticed that Bill Halter has called for more accountability in Washington, so I expect him to stand with me and support transparency throughout these final stages of the debate on health insurance reform." 

House Minority Leader John Boehner hosted a DC fundraiser Tuesday night for fellow Republican Rep. Ahn "Joseph" Cao, considered one of the most vulnerable incumbents in the country. Cao voted with the Democrats the first time around on health care, but has indicated he would vote his party's line this time around. 

The Boston Globe takes a look at the pressure undecided members are facing in making up their minds on how to vote on health care. It leads with Pennsylvania's Jason Altmire. "Pressure is building on dozens of uncertain Democrats in the House this week as broad health care overhaul legislation appears headed for a climactic vote, perhaps by this weekend," the Globe writes. "Obama is making phone calls, holding one-on-one meetings with rank-and-file lawmakers, and planning another campaign-style event this week as part of the administration's lobbying campaign to help House Speaker Nancy Pelosi secure 216 yes votes. 'March Madness' -- the political variety -- is what some lawmakers are calling it."

CALIFORNIA: "A national group opposed to gay marriage on Monday launched 30-second ads attacking Republican U.S. Senate candidate Tom Campbell for his stance against Proposition 8, the 2008 voter-approved initiative to define marriage in the state constitution as between a man and a woman. The New Jersey-based National Organization for Marriage said it is spending $275,000 on ads that suggest Campbell, a moderate Republican, is not much different from 'liberal Barbara Boxer.'"

COLORADO: In last night's first round of Democratic and Republican caucuses, "Andrew Romanoff defeated [Democratic Sen. Michael] Bennet handily, even though Bennet swamped him in fundraising and had the blessing of top Democrats," while "in Republican caucuses, former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton lost narrowly to Ken Buck, a northern Colorado prosecutor," the AP reports.

Romanoff defeated Bennet by a 51%-42% margin. Fewer than 22,000 total voters participated.

Bennet, meanwhile, is up with his first campaign ad.

FLORIDA: "Former Florida Speaker Marco Rubio is set to announce that Republican Study Committee Chairman Tom Price (R-Ga.) is endorsing his Senate campaign," CQ reports.

MASSACHUSETTS: "State Treasurer Timothy P. Cahill, an independent candidate for governor making a play for fiscally conservative voters, said yesterday that the state's universal health care law is bankrupting Massachusetts and will do the same nationally if Congress passes a similar plan," the Boston Globe reports. Cahill said at a press conference yesterday: "If President Obama and the Democrats repeat the mistake of the health insurance reform here in Massachusetts on a national level, they will threaten to wipe out the American economy within four years."

NEVADA: "Nevada's largest private employer is lashing back at attack ads aimed at linking Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid to alleged exploitative labor practices in Dubai in the United Arab Emirates," the Las Vegas Review-Journal reports. Floyd Brown, the maker of the anti-Reid and 1988 'Willie Horton' ads, says the ad is justified because 'MGM Mirage CEO Jim Murren cut a campaign commercial supporting Reid and the company's $8.5 billion CityCenter project is co-owned with Dubai World, a private development arm of the government of Dubai in the U.A.E.,' which has been accused of coercing laborers to work in substandard conditions."

SOUTH CAROLINA: Former Massachusetts governor and 2008 presidential candidate Mitt Romney endorsed State Rep. Nikki Haley for governor yesterday. 

WISCONSIN: "Former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson (R) is '50-50' on whether or not to challenge Sen. Russ Feingold (D) this fall and will almost certainly make a decision before the May 20 state party convention, according to a source familiar with his thinking," the Washington Post said yesterday.

From NBC's Mark Murray
Here's our write-up on the latest NBC/WSJ poll:

As Congress prepares for a crucial and possibly decisive vote on the fate of President Barack Obama's health care plan, the American public is evenly divided about whether the legislation should be passed or rejected, according to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

Americans are also split on which would be worse for their congressional representative's re-election chances — a vote for the overhaul bill or a vote against it.

And they're divided on Obama's overall job performance, as well as —for the first time in six years — whether the Democratic Party or the Republican Party better handles the economy.

But they overwhelmingly agree on this: The nation is on the wrong track, the economy has negatively affected the country, and Congress is broken.

"The memo is pretty simple — 'Americans to Congress: You stink,'" says Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart, who conducted the survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff.

"The public is disgusted and unhappy," Hart adds. "To me, this is an exceptionally important story."

Click here for the rest of the story.