From NBC's Mark Murray and Rebecca Samuels
On "Meet the Press" today, House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer suggested that House Democrats might not have the 216 votes to pass health care right now, but they will have them when the roll call takes place.

REP. HOYER: We're going to get those 216 votes because we believe that they understand that Americans want health care reform by an overwhelming majority.
MR. GREGORY: Do you have them as we sit here?
REP. HOYER: I think we're going to have 216 when the role is called, yes.
MR. GREGORY: But not yet? You're not nailed down, a few behind?
REP. HOYER: There are still members looking at it, trying to make up their minds, we think 216 plus votes when we call the roll.

And here was House Minority Leader John Boehner on whether Democrats have the votes:

MR. GREGORY:  Leader Boehner, are they going to have the votes?
REP. BOEHNER:  It's clear from Steny they don't have the votes yet… we're about to make this historic change on a purely partisan vote, and I think of the American people stay engaged in this fight for the next few hours that this fight is not lost yet.

From NBC's Mike Viqueira
If things go according to plan, think 8:30 pm-ish finish.

This is all a back of the envelope calculation. Please do not use for any actual cash wager, and please keep in mind that even during procedural debate, there will be discussion of the larger underlying health-care reform issues:

- 1:00 pm ET: House comes in for 10 "ONE MINUTE" speeches.
- 1:20-ish: Debate on two "points of order" (i.e., objections) against the rule (having to do with budgetary impact). Each point gets 20 minutes debate.
- 2:15-ish: Vote on the POO's
- 2:45-ish: Debate begin on the rule
- 4:00-ish: Vote on the rule
- 4:30-ish: Two-hour general health care debate begins
- 7:00-ish: Debate ends. Vote on the SENATE bill begins (This is where John Boehner has asked for a manual vote, which would take much longer than a normal electronic vote. He isn't likely to get it, however.)
- 730-ish: Debate on a Republican "motion to recommit." This is the Republicans' best shot all day, a motion that would scuttle the whole thing. Substance is always a secret until last minute, but we can expect it to involve abortion in an effort to put the Stupak group on the spot.)
- 745-ish: Vote on motion to recommit
- 800-ish: If motion to recommit fails, then the final vote on reconciliation "fixes."
- 830-ish: Gavel comes down on final vote. If it's close, Dem leaders will extend the usual 15 minutes to twist arms.

If the GOP decides to use dilatory motions throughout the day, they can do that. In that case, it goes even later. But it's doubtful they will.

From NBC's Luke Russert and Domenico Montanaro
Senate Democrats tried to bridge that chasm of trust between House and Senate Democrats with a letter assuring them they will pass the reconciliation bill.

Click here for the full letter.

Here's what House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer had to say about it:

"I can't quote it verbatim. I saw it, I read it, it essentially says we are for reconciliation, we will vote for the reconciliation and we will vote for it and we'll vote for the reconciliation bill sent to us by the House. ...

"What we are hopeful for, when we considered it, we could treat this like a conference report, where you do the amendments and then you do the bill."

From NBC's Luke Russert
The
Tea Party protests got ugly today.

African-American Congressman John Lewis
(D-GA), a protege of Dr. Martin Luther King Jr., who helped organize
the March on Washington, went to the House floor today to tell Majority
Whip Jim Clyburn (D-SC) that a Tea Party protester
called him a "n-----."

Another Democratic source confirms to NBC News
that openly gay Congressman Barney Frank (D-MA) was
called a "f--" by somebody in the Tea Party crowd.

Rep. Emanaul Cleaver (D-MO),
another African-American member, was apparently spit on by a Tea Party
protester.

Clyburn, who helped lead sit-ins in South Carolina in the '60s had this to say regarding the Tea Partiers:

"It was absolutely shocking to me, last Monday, I stayed home to meet on the campus Pomford University where 50 years ago, as of last Monday, March 15th I led the first demonstrations in South Carolina, the sit-ins...quite frankly I heard some things today that I haven't heard since that day. I heard people saying things today I've not heard since March 15th, 1960 when I was marching to try and get off the back of the bus. This is incredible, shocking to me.

He added, "It doesn't make me nervous, I am the hardest person in the world to intimidate. ... Well a lot of us have said for a long time that none of this is about health care at all. ... It's about extending a basic fundamental right to people who are less powerful."

*** UPDATE *** NBC's Shawna Thomas has more after an interview with Frank. Here's part of what he had to say:

"It's just disappointing. ... John Lewis said he felt like it was 50 years ago. ... I walked from the Longworth building to the Rayburn building ... people started shouting and saying abusive things, and I just kept walking. ...

"The Republican leadership is making a mistake not doing more to disassociate from this. ... It's a mob mentality that doesn't work politically. ... 

"The only problem I have with this... They all said 'You should quit. You should quit. We're going to defeat you. At some point... I'd like to retire. As long as I think it might make some of those people happy, I can never retire. I may have to work forever as long as they're out there."

From NBC's Shawna Thomas
From the House pool note:

From the House Democratic Caucus meeting, this from House Democratic Caucus Chairman John Larson (D-CT). He says "shortly after 2, we will have an hour of debate on the rule." This is the rule to allow reconcilation to get to the floor.

They would then vote on the rule, sans deem and pass. He then says there will then be "two hours of debate on the bill."

Larson did not elude to passing the Senate bill later. But he did say they would do this "in the light of day."

In conclusion, Larson added that the Senate bill "will become law tomorrow evening with the president's signature."

From NBC's Mike Viqueira, Luke Russert, and Tracy Kennedy
Abortion is turning out to be the enormous struggle that we thought it might.

There is discussion now with Bart Stupak about the possibility of having the president issue an executive order on how abortion procedures would be covered for those recieving government subsidies on the insurance exchange.

They wouldn't even be considering this if they weren't short votes. IF it were to happen, the pro-choice members are bound to be very upset. (They are led by Degette and Lowey).

If they can somehow do this without Stupak and his group, they will certainly do so.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) told a crowd of reporters that there will be no additional abortion bill or abortion language on the floor to placate Stupak (D-MI).

This seems to suggest she can go forward without his support and that of his gang.

"Thirty hours from now we will all be free as birds," she said.

Anything for abortion and Stupak?

"The bill is the bill," she said. "We have an agreement with the Senate that this is what we are passing in both houses."

She added that an executive order from the president dealing with abortion is a "possibility."

Pro-abortion-rights member Jan Schakowsky (D-IL) said that if there were to be Stupak language in the bill, then there are at least 50 members who wouldn't vote for it. She added that the Stupak legislation will not be voted on. It won't be in the legislation. There is no deal with Stupak, she reiterated. She wants to see the language of an executive order, but she has every confidence that the president is pro-abortion rights and Will see what he has to say this afternoon.

House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer also weighed in saying, "I don't know the answer to that question," of whether there will be an executive order. "I don't know where they stand. You obviously know there is a discussion about an executive order, where it stands I don't know."

Asked if anti-abortion-rights members would be responsive to an executive order, Hoyer said, "I am hopeful."

From NBC's Luke Russert and Shawna Thomas
Located at the West Front of the Capitol in the grassy area below the steps, are according to two Capitol Hill Police officers between 1,500 to 2,000 Tea Party protesters.

They are loud, vocal and many hold signs that say, "Kill the Bill" and "Don't Tread on Me."

Mike Pence (R-IN) and Tom Price (R-GA) have addressed the crowd and currently Michelle Bachmann (R-MN) is stirring them up into a tizzy.

Tea partiers are also trickling into the halls of the House builidngs wearing 9/12 tshirts and Marco Rubio pins. They have lists of undecideds whose offices they're trying to visit. Talking to a few who came up from Florida, they say they're here to preserve their and their children's freedom.

From NBC's Shawna Thomas, Luke Russert and Mike Viqueira
As we all sit enthralled by the House Rules Committee hearing, we offer a primer. The Rules Committee considered to be an arm of the speaker's office, and is an instrument by which the majority, whether it be Republicans or Democrats, exercises control over the House process. As many of us are learning lately, if you control the process you control the substance.
 
Its job is to design a package of rules by which most legislation is considered on the floor. The duration of debate, how many amendments, which amendments, etc. That package is debated on the floor and then must be approved by means of a vote. If it passes, then the underlying legislation is taken up.
  
The partisan committee ratio of 9 to 4 is a belt and suspenders approach to making sure there is no funny business and that the majority party always gets it's way. The legislative geeks refer to the House as a "majoritarian" body. In the words of a famous speaker of the 1880's, the job of the minority in the House is to "make a quorum and to draw its pay." In other words, sit down and shut up.
   
Today, for example, we will see a parade of Republicans before the committee asking that their amendments be allowed for floor consideration tomorrow. They will be ignored and outvoted. There will be no amendments allowed on the floor tomorrow, save those that are absolutely necessary for democrats pass to health care reform. But we will get to see a lot of people letting off a lot of steam, which is also a function of your U.S. House.
  
Schoolhouse rock, this isn't.
   
As has also been noted, Republicans operated in the same way when they were running things. In fact, the Rules Committee has been this way since the 19th century, and its power and influence have increased since the time of Henry Clay. Today, assignment to the committee is considered a special perk to many members.

The list of amendments that will be introduced today in the Rules Committee can be found here.

There are 91 amendments on the list. They are not all Republican amendments.

From NBC's Luke Russert
NBC News can confirm that Democrats will opt for a straight up or down vote on the Senate health-care bill tomorrow and not use the controversial "deem and pass" option that had been on the table.

According to a Democratic member, the Senate Parliamentarian, alerted the Democratic Leadership this afternoon that they COULD in fact pass a fix it bill BEFORE the Senate bill. Prior to today the idea was that that would not be allowed. For this reason, the Leadership opted out of using "deem and pass."

A Democratic aide tells us that the House tomorrow will vote first one the rule for debate, then on the fixes to the Senate bill and then on the Senate bill itself.

Chris Van Hollen suggested that this was in response to the heavy criticism brought on by the GOP, "there was no reason to allow the misinformation campaign to continue. Despite the fact that Republicans used it, we wanted to make the process absolutely clear."

As the president walked into a meeting of the House Democratic caucus. He said, "We are going to get this done".

Majority Leader Harry Reid told the Democratic Caucus, "I have the commitment of a significant majority of U.S. Senate to make this good law even better."

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro

Here's a quick look to how the weekend will go after discussions with House Democratic leadership aides:

Today: As we're seeing now the Rules Committee holds a hearing that is expected to last all day. The committee will vote to move the bill to the floor. The FULL House can't vote on it in the same day.

Tomorrow: There will be a full "rule" vote with a vote on the reconciliation bill some time after 2:07 p.m. ET.

What to expect today: The Rules Committee met at 10 a.m. ET. Eight chairmen will testify; 94 amendments will be considered. The meeting is expected to last all day.

A look at the week ahead in politics.

Confused by all the process and maneuvers? We break it down, classroom-style. Plus, Cuomo to DC for fundraiser, Pawlenty to New Hampshire, Romney's book tour continues, and a McCain-Palin reunion.

CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL VIDEO.

A brief clip is below:

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

From NBC's Shawna Thomas and Mark Murray
NBC confirms that New York Rep. Scott Murphy (D) will switch his vote from no to yes on the health-care reform package.

The Albany Times Union first reported the news.

From NBC's Luke Russert
NBC News has confirmed that Florida Congresswoman Suzanne Kosmas will switch from no to yes, becoming the sixth Democrat in recent days to announce that switch.

From NBC's Luke Russert and Mark Murray
Speaking to reporters this afternoon, Republican House leaders criticized the Democrats' health-care legislation, arguing that it wouldn't reduce the deficit, contrary to the Congressional Budget Office's preliminary score.

They also maintained that Democrats don't have the votes to pass the bill, and they said that the sole House Republican to vote for the House health-care bill last November -- Joseph Cao of Louisiana -- will vote against the current legislation.

"This bill is a budget Frankenstein," said GOP Rep. Paul Ryan, ranking member of the House Budget Committee. "It is a house of cards. It's going to give us a huge deficit now and an even larger deficit in the future, and we can very clearly map this out with CBO numbers."

House Minority Leader Eric Cantor added, "CBO's estimate is just not accurate. If they can go about and the Democratic majority can go about assuming this kind of fiscal state, one really has to question how it is we are going to see the course for our future chartered in any responsible way."

Cantor also said Democrats don't have the votes to pass the legislation. "We know that we need 38 Democrat no votes in order to defeat this bill. Publicly right now, there are 33 stated 'no' votes on the Democratic side. We also know that there are 12 members of the so-called Stupak group who are standing firm against the government funding of abortion. And we also know if you add that 12 to the already 33 'no' votes, there is no way they can pass this bill."

(But already some members of Stupak 12 -- like Dale Kildee, Charlie Wilson, and Jim Oberstar -- say they will vote for the legislation.)

On Cao, Cantor said: "Yes, I have spoken to Joseph Cao as recently as an hour and half ago, he is a firm no against this bill."

From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell
Conservative Florida Democratic Congressman Allen Boyd has become the fifth Dem no-to-yes vote.

Said Boyd:

"Throughout this entire debate, I have consistently said that responsible healthcare reform will embody four key principles: it will reduce costs, increase access, ensure patient choice, and not add to the federal deficit. This bill is not perfect, but I believe it meets these four principles of responsible reform by providing the largest middle class tax credits for healthcare in our nation's history and preserving a patient's ability to choose their own doctor."
 
"This package of reforms will effectively curb the skyrocketing cost of healthcare services, helping to lower monthly insurance premiums and doctor bills for millions of North Floridians. It will level the playing field between patients and insurance companies, providing all of us with added peace of mind by guaranteeing that insurance companies cannot suddenly drop your coverage or deny you coverage based on any type of pre-existing condition. It ensures that you and your doctor are the only people making decisions about your healthcare. And it will successfully reduce the deficit more than any other policy enacted since 1993, helping cut more than $1.2 trillion dollars from the deficit over the next 20 years. Taken together, these reforms will improve the overall health of our economy and the American people."

Meanwhile, another previous no vote -- Jason Altmire -- reportedly will remain in the no column.

From NBC's Mark Murray
Right now, everyone is working the phones on health care -- even the ex-president of the AFL-CIO.

An AFL official tells First Read that John Sweeney, the federation's former president, is making calls to House Democrats who are undecided due to the health-care legislation's abortion language.

"Sweeney is a life-long devout Catholic who believes in the importance of the church in fighting for social and economic justice," AFL spokesman Eddie Vale says. "He will be making a moral case about the importance and necessity of health care for our country."

From NBC's Pete Williams
Florida's Republican attorney general intends to file a legal challenge if the House approves the health-care bill using the "deem and pass" method.

A spokeswoman for Attorney General Bill McCollum tells NBC News that he is prepared to file a lawsuit challenging the constitutionality of the deem and pass gambit. McCollum was elected to his current post in 2006. He spent 20 years as a US congressman from central Florida, and he's currently running for governor.

McCollum becomes the second state attorney general to say he'll challenge the House maneuver. Virginia's attorney general, Ken Cuccinelli, wrote House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on Wednesday suggesting he would challenge the method for passing the health-care bill.

Legal scholars are divided on whether the method would violate the constitution and, if it would, whether the federal courts would entertain a challenge.

From NBC's Chuck Todd and Mike Viqueira
President Obama will be meeting with the entire House Democratic Caucus tomorrow at 4:00 pm ET. NBC News is getting conflicting reports as to WHERE this meeting will take place.

House aides insist the president come up to the Hill. But the White House has already decided to host them in the East Room at the White House. Sources acknowledge that there is some disagreement about where this meeting should be.

*** UPDATE *** NBC's Kelly O'Donnell adds that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid will be attending tomorrow's Obama-House Dem meeting.

From NBC's Athena Jones
FAIRFAX, VA -- One day after announcing he was postponing an important trip to the Asia-Pacific region, President Obama today called this weekend's expected health-care vote in the House a "historic" opportunity to do what's "right" for the American people.

The speech at George Mason University was Obama's fourth off-campus health-care event in the past two weeks. In it, he framed the vote as a choice between a victory for the insurers or a victory for the American public.

"We are going to do something historic this weekend," the president told a cheering crowd that frequently interrupted him with chants of "Yes we can". "The only question left is this: Are we going to let the special interests win once again? Or are we going to make this vote a victory for the American people?"

Repeatedly couching the health-care vote in historical terms, Obama compared it to the votes to pass Social Security and Civil Rights legislation. He also invoked the memory of Sen. Ted Kennedy for the second time this week saying the late Massachusetts senator had pushed for reform because he knew it was right -- regardless of how it might play politically.

"In just a few days, a century-long struggle will culminate in an historic vote," he said. "As messy as this process is, as frustrating as this process is, as ugly as this process can be, when we have faced such decisions in our past, this nation time and time again has chosen to extend it's promise to more of its people."

The White House announced yesterday that the president would not depart Sunday for Guam, Indonesia, and Australia as planned, so that he could continue to work toward to sway wavering House Democrats to pass the Senate's version of the health care bill, the first step toward getting the legislation to his desk.

White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs called passage of the legislation "of paramount importance" and said Obama was "determined to see this battle through." A health-care overhaul is one of the president's top agenda items. The issue has dominated the past year, and the president has already spent a great deal of political capital on it.

The foreign trip had already been pushed back in the hopes that the House would pass the legislation before the president departed. But because it took time to get the score from the Congressional Budget Office about how much the bill would cost and how much money it would save over the next couple of decades -- and because the bill must be posted online for a 72 hour public review period before a vote -- it became clear that the earliest the House could take up the bill was Sunday afternoon. As Gibbs put it, there was just no more pad in the president's overseas schedule and so the trip was to be postponed until June.

As of yesterday, Obama had spoken with more than three dozen lawmakers in person or on the telephone since Monday. He was continuing those efforts today.

Meanwhile, the White House press operation has been busy sending out notices to reporters each time a Democrat who voted against the House version of the legislation last year switches to a "yes" vote, bringing the party one step closer to the 216 votes needed to get the bill through the House.

Obama closed his remarks in Fairfax much as he used to end his campaign rallies -- by calling on supporters to pick up the phone, knock on doors, and talk to their neighbors to drum up support for the bill.

"Do not quit. Do not give up. We keep on going," he shouted. "We are going to get this done. We are going to make history. We are going to fix health care in America with your help."

For the most part, the crowd was loud and enthusiastic. One female protester tried to shout down the president, but was drowned out by the audience, according to the pool report, and some of the usual protesters -- some 50 people or more -- lined the road outside the venue, holding signs like "Tear Down this Bill" and "Stop Health care."

From NBC's Mark Murray
While Ohio Rep. John Boccieri (D) today became the fourth House Democrat to switch from no to yes, Hotline yesterday reported on one House Dem who plans to switch from yes to no: New York Rep. Michael Arcuri (D).

Greg Sargent and Politico's Ben Smith note that New York labor groups are planning to recruit a primary challenger to face off against Arcuri.

Ben Smith:

New York's Working Families Party, which has outsized influence in state politics and its own ballot line, is actively recruiting a candidate to run against Upstate Rep. Mike Arcuri, who says he'll vote against health care legislation.

"If Rep. Arcuri sides with the insurance companies against the middle-class and working-class voters of his district, they'll go elsewhere, and we are in active conversation with several people who we think would make excellent third-line challengers in this race," WFP executive director Dan Cantor told me.

Greg Sargent:

It appears SEIU is dead serious about this business about yanking support for House Dems who vote No on the health bill.

The SEIU bluntly informed Dem Rep Michael Arcuri of New York yesterday that it's pulling support for him in the wake of the news that he's an all-but-certain No, I'm told. And the search for a primary or third-party challenger is underway.

Jerry Dennis, the president of SEIU local 200, which represents 14,000 workers statewide in New York, called Arcuri yesterday and delivered the news, SEIU spokesman Matt Nerzig tells me.

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro, Mark Murray, Kelly O'Donnell, and Shawna Thomas
Ohio Congressman John Boccieri announced he will switch his vote to yes on health care.

"If in this job I can save one life one family one person," he said, "this job is worth it."

Boccieri becomes the fourth no-to-yes vote, as Democrats try to corral enough votes to pass health legislation this weekend. The others: Dennis Kucinich (OH), Betsy Markey (CO), and Bart Gordon (TN)

"A lot of people are telling me this decision could cost me my job," Boccieri said. "I want my mom to know I'm standing up today, and I'm doing what I believe in."

Interestingly, Boccieri gave remarks and introduced constituents to tell their health care stories and did not explicitly declare his vote until he was asked a question about it. He had given a speech that signaled his position but needed prodding to say it aloud.

"Yes," he said, "I will be voting yes for the bill."

Boccieri is a freshman from a conservative-leaning district. He has been under intense pressure to oppose the bill. One sign of the pressure, the congressman says a plane has flown above his district trailing a sign urging him to vote no.

After a couple of months of catching very few breaks, Dems have the momentum on health care… But that doesn't mean everything will be smooth sailing between now and Sunday… First Read names names on Dems that still need convincing… NBC's Mike Viqueira on past close House votes… The GOP's game plan… Obama's final health-care rally (how many times have we said that?)… Breaking down what's in the bill (in our Congress section)… Why so little scrutiny on John Ensign?… And First Read's Top 10 Senate takeovers.

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** Dems and Big Mo: Ever since the Senate passed its health-care bill on Christmas Eve, Democrats and the Obama White House have caught very few breaks. You had Scott Brown's surprise victory in Massachusetts, the Rangel and Massa news, and even a February jobs report that would have been MUCH better had it not been for all the snow in the Northeast. But with the fate of health care on the line this week, almost everything has gone their way -- whether it was picking up Dennis Kucinich's "yes" vote on Wednesday, getting two more no-to-yes converts (Bart Gordon and Betsy Markey), and getting a very positive preliminary score from the CBO ($138 billion in deficit reduction over 10 years and $1.2 trillion in deficit reduction over the next 10 years).
 
*** Three more days of herding cats: But that doesn't mean everything is going to be smooth sailing between now and the final House vote, which is set for Sunday afternoon. Although we reported yesterday that Democrats were just about five votes short of the 216 needed for passage, President Obama and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi are going to have to spend the next three days herding cats. One plugged-in Democratic Capitol Hill source tells us that several Dems who voted FOR last November's health bill -- Michael Arcuri (NY), Stephen Lynch (MA), Jerry Costello (IL), Paul Kanjorski (PA), Marion Berry (AR), and Marcy Kaptor (OH) -- still need convincing. And the source says that they're trying to get a few more no-to-yes switches like Scott Murphy (NY), Jason Altmire (PA), and Alan Boyd (FL).

*** Breaking down the undecideds: There are a few ways you can group these Democrats above. Costello is your longtime party stalwart who chairs an important aviation subcommittee (would he really walk away from his party when they need him?); Altmire is one the majority-makers from 2006, who represents a swing district; Berry is an upcoming retirement; Boyd is one of the party's southern conservatives; and Murphy is a guy who, in part, owes the White House and Pelosi for his election last year in a special. Getting all these folks on board requires different selling points and convincing. In short, it's why getting to 216 isn't an easy task.

*** Let's get ready to rumble: As NBC's Mike Viqueira points out, close votes on the House floor are a lot like championship fights, and they don't happen all that often (the Clinton budget vote in '93, the Medicare prescription-drug law in '03, and the TARP vote in '08). You have members hanging on the rail at the back of the chamber, watching the vote tally that is illuminated with each members name above the press gallery, hoping that they won't get a tap on the shoulder from a leader calling in a chit and making them vote "yes." The whip team roams the aisles carrying their whip list. Each deputy whip is assigned certain members to keep track of and see that they vote the way they are expected to. And the opposition will be standing there taking it all in and marking down those who take tough votes.

*** The GOP's game plan: So what are Republicans planning to do, especially if the reform measure passes? The Wall Street Journal has a good write-up: "Republicans are looking beyond Sunday's expected vote on the Democrats' health-care overhaul to focus on strategies for striking back should it pass, ranging from challenges to the measure by individual states to a national repeal campaign. Opponents say they can still defeat the bill this weekend. By talking about the tactics now, and showing how they intend to rally the public, they hope to sway wavering lawmakers to vote no. And if the bill passes, they have a head start on a strategy to knock off all or parts of the legislation." The GOP has an interesting task ahead of them: keep the issue in the news for the long haul (at least until November), especially since so little of this health-care plan goes into effect this year.

*** Obama's final rally: At 11:35 am ET in Fairfax, VA, President Obama holds what could very well be his final rally (how many times have we written that?) to sell health-care reform. And it's his fourth event in a battleground state in the past two weeks -- the other stops were in Pennsylvania, Missouri, and Ohio.

*** Massa vs. Ensign: Turning to non-health care news… Here's a question a few have begun asking: How did the Eric Massa mess dominate the news for an entire week, while the latest allegations surrounding John Ensign -- which include an ACTUAL FBI investigation -- have registered just a blip on the media radar? (Yesterday, it was reported that a grand jury has issued subpoenas for an inquiry into whether Ensign broke laws by financially helping the husband of his ex-mistress.) As the Washington Monthly's Steve Benen recently wrote, "Sen. John Ensign (R) of Nevada is caught in a truly humiliating sex scandal -- and remember, the media generally loves political sex scandals -- involving a shameless hypocrite, who ran on a 'family-values' platform, committing adultery with one of his own aides, who happens to be married to another aide. The scandal involves the immediate affair, plus alleged ethics violations, hush money, and official corruption. And yet, no media frenzy. No reporters staked out in front of Ensign's home. No op-eds speculating about the need for Ensign to resign in disgrace."

*** Refuse To resign: Of course, maybe this "refuse to resign" strategy by Ensign is working for New York's Democratic Gov. David Paterson who also seems to be defying political gravity. By the way, the one senator who does NOT want to see a new frenzy begin with Ensign is David Vitter, who is up for re-election this year and so far as avoided dealing with his past transgressions on the campaign trail.

*** First Read's Top 10 Senate takeovers: If it's Friday, it means another First Read Top 10 -- this time our monthly look at the Top 10 Senate takeovers. Like last month, GOP pick-up opportunities dominate our list (eight of the 10 are Democratic held seats). But we have a few changes from February: We've moved Indiana down a couple of spots; moved Illinois up one; moved Pennsylvania down two; moved Missouri up one; and dropped Ohio out of the Top 10. The number in parentheses is our ranking from last month.
1. North Dakota (1) -- Sen. Hoeven (R), we presume?
2. Delaware (3) -- Castle (R) remains the front-runner, but can Coons mix it up?
3. Nevada (4) -- the "most powerful senator" in Nevada's history is about to take center stage again in the health debate
4. Indiana (2) -- the $64,000 question: how does Ellsworth (D) vote on health care?
5. Arkansas (5) -- with a tough primary and general, Lincoln (D) isn't going down without a fight
6. Colorado (6) -- who would have thought a narrow caucus loss would make Bennet (D) look stronger?
7. Illinois (8) -- Kirk (R) has put his foot in his mouth again, but Giannoulias' bank woes are the big elephant in the room
8. Missouri (9) – while trailing slightly in the polls, Carnahan (D) remains the best Dem pick-up opportunity this cycle
9. Pennsylvania (7) -- a couple of new polls show that Specter (D) isn't as vulnerable as we thought a month ago
10. New Hampshire (10) – this state right now is the Dems' second-best pick-opportunity; Ohio is third. 

*** More midterm news: In Florida, a new Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll shows Marco Rubio "leading Gov. Charlie Crist by 58% to 30%, while "in the general election, Crist leads the Democrat Meek by 45%-36% -- but Rubio only has a statistically insignificant edge over Meek of 41%-40%," Talking Points Memo says… In Iowa, today is the filing deadline… In New York, Rick Lazio took shots at his competition for the GOP gubernatorial nomination, Steve Levy… In Pennsylvania, a new Susquehanna (R) poll "shows the upcoming special election to replace the late Congressman John Murtha is a near dead heat, with Democrat special election nominee Mark Critz holding a tenuous 36/31 lead over Republican nominee Tim Burns; 31% of likely voters remain undecided.".. And in Utah, today is the filing deadline.

Countdown to IN, NC, and OH primaries: 46 days
Countdown to NE and WV primaries: 53 days
Countdown to AR, KY, OR and PA primaries: 60 days
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 228 days

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"House Democrats yesterday unveiled a $940 billion compromise health care package they said would reduce the deficit and vastly expand health insurance coverage, continuing a march toward what leaders predicted will be final House passage Sunday of a sweeping overhaul that has bitterly divided both Congress and the public," the Boston Globe reports.

The Washington Post summarizes what's in the health bill and reconciliation fixes. "The compromise would extend coverage to an additional 32 million Americans over the next decade by expanding Medicaid eligibility and creating state-run insurance exchanges and federal subsidies for lower-income families who lack access to employer-provided coverage. All Americans would be required for the first time to obtain insurance or face an annual penalty of $695; employers could face penalties of $2,000 per worker for not offering affordable coverage. In exchange for the new business, private insurers would be subject to an array of rules, including a ban on the practice of denying coverage to people with preexisting medical conditions and a requirement that adult children be permitted to stay on their parents' policies until age 26."

More: "It would eliminate the most politically contentious of several deals cut to win the votes of recalcitrant lawmakers by extending to all states a promise of Medicaid funding that had originally been offered only to Nebraska. And it would delay until 2018 the implementation of a 40 percent tax on high-cost insurance policies. To cover the cost of those changes, the compromise would impose a 3.8 percent Medicare tax on investment income for wealthy taxpayers, a levy that would come in addition to a Senate-proposed increase in the regular payroll tax for those families. And it would slice an additional $60 billion from Medicare, with the privately run program known as Medicare Advantage targeted for particularly deep cuts, bringing the total reduction in projected spending on the program to more than $500 billion over the next decade."

Here's a good example -- courtesy of the LA Times -- why House Dem leaders are as optimistic as ever on getting health care passed. "After the caucus meeting, Indiana Rep. Baron P. Hill, a conservative Democrat whom leaders were trying to stop from switching from yes to no on the healthcare legislation, said he was closer to supporting the bill. 'I'm pretty happy about the numbers,' Hill said. 'That moves me a step forward.'"

But the cat herding continues for Democrats: "House Democrats officially gained two and lost two on Thursday as they continued their painstaking zigzag toward 216 votes and final passage of a sweeping health care overhaul, now likely on Sunday," Roll Call writes. "Leaders got two pieces of good news, with retiring Science and Technology Chairman Bart Gordon (D-Tenn.) and freshman Rep. Betsy Markey (D-Colo.), who voted 'no' on the original House bill, announcing they would back reform this time around. But those gains were offset by the losses of Reps. Michael Arcuri (D-N.Y.) and Stephen Lynch (D-Mass.) who flipped their previous support to opposition."
 
"Rebuffing personal pleas from President Obama and Vicki Kennedy, Representative Stephen F. Lynch said yesterday that he will vote against the Democrats' health care overhaul, contending that it doesn't put enough pressure on insurance companies to reduce costs."
 
More: "The pressure on House members is intense. Lynch was summoned to the White House yesterday afternoon for a personal, 40-minute Oval Office meeting with the president. The former ironworker also received a call from his union's president urging him to vote yes. Vicki Kennedy, widow of the senator, also spoke with Lynch. When reminded yesterday of Senator Kennedy's advice to not let the 'perfect be the enemy of the good,' Lynch told reporters: "There's a difference between compromise and surrender, right? And this is a complete surrender of all the things that people thought were important to health care reform."

The New York Daily News looks at the pressure Upstate New York congressman Scott Murphy is facing. Murphy was elected in a special election with lots of national help from Democrats last year. 
 
"Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio), who is undecided on the health care vote, said she is urging Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) to hold a separate vote reaffirming Rep. Bart Stupak's (D-Mich.) strict language limiting abortion insurance coverage to help clear the way for passage of the reform package Sunday," Roll Call writes. "Kaptur said she's 'trying to convince her that that would be a very useful thing,' but she said Pelosi hasn't yet signaled a willingness to consider the idea."

And, of course, once the House fight is done, the Senate takes it up. The Hill previews that: "Senators are looking ahead to a battle next week over budget rules in the expectation that healthcare reform will pass the House this weekend. They don't know how long the parliamentary fighting will last." More: "Democrats are confident they can pass the package with a simple majority; Republicans agree that is likely. What's in question is how many of its provisions will fall to procedural objections. If the House passes healthcare reform on Sunday, as some GOP lawmakers expect, the Senate-passed bill will go to President Barack Obama's desk and a reconciliation measure making changes to it will go to the Senate for approval. A Democratic leadership aide said the reconciliation package would hit the floor as early as Tuesday."

National Journal's Ron Brownstein has two takeaways on Obama from this health-care fight. First: "Win or lose, Obama has pursued health care reform as tenaciously as any president has pursued any domestic initiative in decades. Health care has now been his presidency's central domestic focus for a full year. That's about as long as it took to pass the Civil Rights Act of 1964, originally introduced by John F. Kennedy and driven home by Lyndon Johnson. Rarely since World War II has a president devoted so much time, at so much political cost, to shouldering a single priority through Congress."

Second: "The key here is his 2008 campaign assertion that 'Ronald Reagan changed the trajectory of America' more than Richard Nixon or Bill Clinton did. The health care struggle suggests that Obama views changing that trajectory as the ultimate measure of a presidency's success. His aim is to establish a long-term political direction—one centered on a more activist government that shapes and polices the market to strengthen the foundation for sustainable, broadly-shared growth. Everything else—the legislative tactics, even most individual policies—is negotiable. He wants to chart the course for the supertanker, not to steer it around each wave or decide which crates are loaded into its hull."

"In seeking enough votes to overhaul the nation's health care system, President Barack Obama is telling nervous Democratic lawmakers that their political fates are linked to the bill's passage, discouraging the notion that they can save themselves by opposing it, House members say," the AP writes. "They also say the president's not asking lawmakers to save his skin either, while the White House insists that no special favors in exchange for votes are being offered or accepted."

And so the next great legislative fight begins. But can this be done seriously in an election year? The New York Times: "In carefully choreographed moves, the senators, Charles E. Schumer, Democrat of New York, and Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina, described their proposal in an editorial posted at midafternoon on the Web site of The Washington Post. President Obama immediately responded with a statement saying it 'should be the basis for moving forward,' and he pledged "to do everything in my power to forge a bipartisan consensus this year" around the bill."

"At a news conference with Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov after talks on a wide range of issues, [Secretary of State Hillary] Clinton told reporters that Iran, while entitled to the peaceful use of nuclear energy, must reassure the world that it is not trying to build a nuclear weapon," the New York Daily News writes. Clinton said, "In the absence of those reassurances, we think it would be premature to go forward with any project at this time, because we want to send an unequivocal message to the Iranians." But "Lavrov forcefully asserted that, whatever the U.S. concerns, his country will finish its work on the Bushehr nuclear power plant shortly."

The L.A. Times looks at the Rahm-Axelrod dynamic. Our favorite nugget: "Axelrod and Emanuel are star players in almost every discussion. That might be expected given the common portrayals of the two. Emanuel is the hard-eyed, salty-tongued pragmatist who counts votes and navigates the polarized politics of Capitol Hill. Axelrod is more relaxed and avuncular, more inclined to invoke the aspirational language that Obama used in his campaign. Years ago, when they played basketball with future Democratic Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn, 'Axelrod shot three-pointers,' Quinn recalled. 'Rahm called a lot of fouls.' Now, with the healthcare battle apparently won, the two men insist that their friendship has not suffered. They're quick to challenge any suggestion that they regularly disagree, let alone argue."

And the New York Times on the Obama-Hillary relationship: "Sixteen months after Mr. Obama surprised nearly everyone by picking her as secretary of state, the two have again surprised nearly everyone by forging a credible partnership. Mrs. Clinton has proved to be an eager team player, a tireless defender of the administration, ever deferential to Mr. Obama and careful to ensure that her husband, the former president, does not upstage her boss."

"The federal grand jury investigating Sen. John Ensign (R-Nev.) subpoenaed the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), a sign the Justice Department is ramping up its efforts to determine whether Ensign abused his office in the aftermath of an affair he had with a top aide's wife," The Hill writes. "'The NRSC has responded appropriately to questions concerning matters related to the 2008 election cycle timeframe,' said Sean Cairncross, the NRSC's general counsel, in a statement. The FBI and the Senate Ethics Committee are investigating the two-term Nevada senator for allegedly trying to limit political damage from an affair with the wife of one of his former Senate aides by conspiring to help the former aide secure lobbying work and using his influence to pressure several parties to keep quiet about it."