From NBC's Ali Weinberg
A new poll from political action group EMILY’s List found that women who voted for Barack Obama in 2008, but not for their 2010 Democratic congressional candidate are likely to vote for Obama in 2012.

Since the 1980’s, it’s been “an iron law that Democrats only win when they win with women,” said Geoff Garin, the president of Democratic polling firm Hart Research Associates which conducted the poll. He added that while that did not happen in 2010, evidence suggested that women who either defected to a Republican candidate or didn’t vote at all would make their way back to the Democratic fold by 2012.

The group canvassed 608 women who voted for Obama for president, but either voted Republican, or did not vote at all, in the 2010 midterm elections. About six in ten of the women chose not to vote in the midterms, and three in ten voted for the Republican congressional candidate.

Of those groups, however, a majority – 62% - said they would prefer to re-elect President Obama than vote for a Republican candidate (23%). Fifteen percent said they were not sure yet who to support. Obama’s approval ratings were even higher, averaging at 71% among women who voted Republican or did not vote at all.

The economy was the chief motivating factor for most of the 2008 “drop-offs.” Among women who voted Republican, 77% said they were compelled by the state of the economy to vote. Women who did not go to the polls actually said they support Obama and the Democratic Congress on a whole (77% and 52%, respectively), but a majority also said their inactivity was driven by the economic doldrums.

Garin said that the suggested swing back towards Obama in 2012 indicated that women were more inclined to make a statement against unfavorable conditions (in this case, the economy), but in the 2012 presidential election, the stakes would be too high to vote any other way than for a Democratic president they still support overall.

Bah-humbug. The parties are exchanging barbs over who the real Grinch is.

Republicans are saying Majority Leader Harry Reid is to blame for potentially keeping the Senate in session through Christmas.

Democrats are saying it's Republicans' fault, charging that senators like Jon Kyl (R-AZ) and Jim DeMint (R-SC), have been operating from a playbook that could have been written by famed North Carolina basketball coach Dean Smith: Delay, delay, delay.

"Christmas is a week from Saturday. I understand that. But I hope the Republicans understand it also. Because we are going to complete our work, no matter how long it takes in this Congress," said Reid at a Capitol Hill news conference today, NBC's Kelly O'Donnell reports. "We have to do the work of the American people. We've been stalled and stalled and stalled this whole time. "

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) said, "It's completely and totally inappropriate to wrap all of this up into a 2,000-page bill and try to pass it the week before Christmas."

Reid: "I hate to report this to you, but there is still time after Christmas. So if Republicans think they can stall and stall and stall and if we take a break we're through. We're not through. Congress ends on Jan. 4th. So we're going to continue working on this stuff until we get it done."

Republicans penned a letter saying they would block any legislation until taxes and funding the government were resolved. The tax bill was passed today 81-19.

Kyl said he would do everything he could to stop the START nuclear treaty with Russia because of timing.

And DeMint had even wanted the entire omnibus and START treaty read into the record, something that could have taken 70 hours.

Kyl went so far as to claim Reid, a Mormon, was "disrespecting" Christmas.

"At some point you can no longer carry on the proposition that we're going to do this whole long list of things," Kyl said. "It is impossible to do all of the things that the majority leader laid out without doing -- frankly, without disrespecting the institution (meaning the Senate's need to move methodically on bills) and without disrespecting one of the two holiest of holidays for Christians and the families of all of the Senate, not just the senators themselves but all of the staff."

A testy Reid responded that it was "offensive" that Kyl said it was sacrilegious and disrespectful to stay in session during Christmas.

Ho, ho, ho.

*** UPDATE *** Reid's office released the following statement, hitting Kyl and DeMint for "sanctimonious lectures":

"As a Christian, no one has to remind me of the importance of Christmas for all Christian faiths and families across America.

"I do not need to hear the sanctimonious lectures of Senators Kyl and DeMint to remind me of what Christmas means.

"My question is where were their concerns about Christmas as they led filibusters on every major piece of legislation this Congress.

"Senate Republicans need look no further than themselves in casting blame for the predicament we are in right now.

"In this Congress, Republicans have waged 87 filibusters. They have used every trick in the book to delay legislation.

"In 15 minutes we are going to proceed to the START Treaty. Senator DeMint is going to make us read the entire treaty, in an effort to stall us from passing it.

"Then Senate Republicans are going to make us read the bill we need to pass in order to fund the government

"These are additional days of wasted time we could be using to pass legislation and get home for the holidays.

"Yet some of my Republican colleagues have the nerve to whine about having to stay and actually do the work the American people pay us for?

"Perhaps Senators Kyl and DeMint have been in Washington too long because in my state Nevadans employed in casinos and hotels have to work hard on holidays, including Christmas, to support their families.

"Most people don't get two weeks off yet alone one week off for Christmas. And those people who are lucky enough to have a job in these trying times need to work extra hours just to make ends meet.

"So it is deeply offensive to me and millions of working Americans across this country for any Senator to suggest that working through the Christmas holiday is somehow 'sacrilegious' or 'disrespectful.'

"The path to finishing this year lies in the hands of Senator Kyl, Senator DeMint and any other Senate Republican who are trying run out the clock or run out the door without finishing the American people's business.

"If they decide to work with us we can all have a happy holiday."

From NBC's Shawna Thomas
Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD) said he expects the tax cut compromise bill that just passed in the Senate to go to the Rules Committee today, but doesn't really think bringing to to the floor tonight is an option. Hoyer is still keeping quiet on what changes to the bill will get separate votes.

"They [Rules Committee] haven't decided what those options will be," Hoyer said, "but I think there will be options."

But he did say that the leadership is not whipping the bill.

OFF CAMERA:

Hoyer: "We expect them [the Senate] to give it to us between 2 and 3. And then we well go to the Rules Committee probably tonight and have the bill out tomorrow."

Reporter: Any chance of voting on the rule tonight and getting that out of the way?

Hoyer: "I don't think so."

Reporter: So when's the bill coming to the floor?

Hoyer: "No later than tomorrow."

Reporter: So you think tonight is still an option?

Hoyer: "No, I really don't."

Reporter: Do you think the bill will passed unchanged from the Senate version?

Hoyer: "We're not whipping it."

NBC's Kelly O'Donnell reports that the Senate passed the tax compromise bill overwhelmingly, by an 81-19 margin.

The legislation now moves to the House. House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer's office says the House is not expected to take it up until tomorrow.

From NBC's Mark Murray
With the Senate's final approval of President Obama's compromise tax deal -- and with the House expected to take up the measure tomorrow -- nearly 60 percent approve of its major components, according to a new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll.

When respondents were told that the agreement would extend the Bush-era tax cuts -- for all income levels, including the wealthy -- for two years in exchange for a one-year extension of unemployment benefits and a temporary reduction of payroll taxes, 59 percent say they approve the deal and 36 disapprove.

What's more, 61 percent believe the agreement was a fair compromise for both President Obama and Republican leaders, while 23 percent think Obama gave up too much and 10 percent say Republicans gave up too much.

Yet the poll also shows that Democrats and liberals are slightly more opposed to the deal than their counterparts are -- but not significantly.

In the poll, Democrats approve the deal by a 54-to-41 percent margin, and liberals by 57-41 percent.

That's compared with 68-29 percent among Republicans; 60-35 percent among conservatives; 60-36 percent among independents; and 62-34 percent among moderates.

The NBC/WSJ poll was conducted Dec. 9-13 of 1,000 adults (including 200 reached by cellphone), and the margin of error for these two questions is plus-minus 4.4 percentage points.

The Senate approved the deal Wednesday by an 81-19 vote.

The rest of the poll will be released beginning at 6:30 pm ET.

*** UPDATE II *** In an interview with NBC’s Andrea Mitchell on Wednesday, Vice President Joe Biden blasted Republican Sen. Jon Kyl for his comment that it was disrespectful to vote on the START treaty during the Christmas season. He said Kyl should let the Senate vote.

“Get out of the way. There's too much at stake for America's national security,” Biden said. “And don't tell me about Christmas. I understand Christmas. I have been a senator for a long time.”

Biden noted that there are still 10 days before Christmas. “I hope I don't get in the way of your Christmas shopping, but this is the nation's business,” he said. “This is the national security that's at stake. Act.”

*** UPDATE *** DeMint's threat to force a reading of the START treaty word-for-word has been called off, at least for today. In an agreement with Republican Leader Mitch McConnell, Harry Reid opted not to start debate on the START treaty, even though he produced a successful vote to do so, NBC'S Ken Strickland reports. Debate on the treaty will now officially start tomorrow morning rather than this afternoon.

The Senate voted 66-32 to bring the treaty to the floor for consideration.

1:02 pm: The White House is calling a GOP senator’s stalling tactic to delay a vote on a strategic arms treaty with Russia “a new low” and a “political stunt” that jeopardizes national security.

White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs blasted Sen. Jim DeMint, R-S.C., for halting consideration of the START treaty by forcing a reading of the bill on the Senate floor, a procedural trick that would take up hours of time precious to Democrats who are eager to accomplish their remaining legislative goals before the end of the year.

In a press release, Gibbs called the tactic “exactly the kind of Washington game-playing that the American people are sick of.”

On the Senate floor this morning, Majority Leader Harry Reid called DeMint's action "a colossal waste of time."

Those who object to ratificiation of the START treaty argue that the Senate has not devoted enough time to debating the measure, including its proposals for modernizing America’s existing nuclear arsenal.

Earlier this month, 21 Republican senators signed a letter urging that the treaty not be addressed during the lame duck session.

"It would be unwise and improper to do this in a hurried fashion over the course of only a few days," they wrote.

The treaty is a top priority of the Obama administration and has been endorsed by every living Republican Secretary of State, leading backers to complain that Republicans are simply hoping to deny the White House a last victory before the start of the new Congress.

NBC's Ken Strickland contributed.

From NBC's Ken Strickland
The Senate has started a series of four votes that concludes with the passage of the tax cuts bill.

The order of the votes are as follows:

#1 (Sen. Coburn) to offset the cost of unemployment insurance benefits (requires 67 votes; expected to fail) *** UPDATE *** This measure has failed.
#2 (Sen. DeMint) permanently extend the tax cuts and estate tax (requires 67 votes; expected to fail) *** UPDATE *** This measure has failed.
#3 (Sen. Sanders) to eliminate the tax cut for highest incomes/modify estate tax (requires 67 votes; expected to fail)
#4 Senate passage of the tax cuts bill (simple 51 vote majority required for passage; expected to pass with strong bipartisan support)

From NBC's Athena Jones
President Obama kept the pressure on Congress on Wednesday, especially on members of his own party in the House of Representatives, to pass the tax cut plan he believes is needed to jump-start the country's economic recovery and boost hiring in the private sector.

The Senate is widely expected to pass the agreement later today. It would extend the Bush-era tax rates for all income levels for two years and extend unemployment insurance for 13 months, among other things, but many Democrats are angry that tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans will remain in place and about fact that the law would establish the lowest estate tax rate in decades.

The White House has spent a great deal of time and energy selling the deal, with the president himself urging members of Congress to accept the compromise for the good of the country, an argument he reiterated today.

"I know there are different aspects of this plan to which members of Congress on both sides of the aisle object. That's the nature of compromise," Obama said. "But we worked hard to negotiate an agreement that's a win for middle class families and a win for our economy and we can't afford to have it fall victim to either delay or defeat, so I urge members of Congress to pass tax cuts as swiftly as possible."

The president's remarks came ahead of a meeting at Blair House with 20 of the nation's top CEOs to discuss ways to spur growth and increase investment and innovation. The White House believes the tax deal will help give businesses certainty, in part because people will not see their taxes go up and on Jan. 1 and will continue to get unemployment insurance. Economists say both will help support consumer spending.

The administration also wants to see corporate America invest trillions of dollars they are holding in cash reserves.

"This morning, I hope to elicit ideas from these business leaders that will help us not only climb out of recession, but seize the promise of this moment," the president said. "Ideas about tax reform, ideas about a balance approach to regulation that will promote rather than undermine growth and ideas that will help encourage businesses to invest in America and American jobs at a time when they're holding nearly $2 trillion on their books."

Among the executives expected to attend the meeting were American Express CEO Kenneth Chenault; UPS CEO Scott Davis, who is also a member of the president's Export Council; GE CEO Jeffrey Immelt; Dupont CEO Ellen Kullman; Boeing CEO James McNerney; PepsiCo CEO Indra Nooyi; Google CEO Eric Schmidt; and UBS CEO Robert Wolf.

Senate uncertainty over New START and the omnibus approps bill… What is certain: Senate passage of the tax deal, which will take place around 1:00 pm ET… Then the deal moves to the House, where some Democrats (Hoyer, Waxman) are coming around to the legislation… It’s NBC/WSJ poll day; poll comes out beginning at 6:30 pm ET… Thune takes a shot at Romney over the tax deal?... National Review takes a shot at Steele’s re-election bid… Crossroads GPS is on the air… Obama meets with business leaders at 9:30 am ET and gives a statement to reporters 15 minutes before that… And NBC’s Andrea Mitchell interviews Biden.

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** Senate uncertainty: So we know that the Senate today will pass the tax-cut deal (see below for more on that vote). But there’s uncertainty over two other big items the chamber is currently considering: New START and the omnibus appropriations bill. Yesterday, GOP Sen. Jon Kyl said he "will work very hard" to ensure START’s defeat if it's brought to the Senate floor this year. Kyl's reasoning, per NBC’s Ken Strickland: He and several of his colleagues believe there is not enough time to thoroughly debate and possibly amend the treaty, and they prefer to take it up in the next Congress. As for the omnibus, Republicans are vowing to defeat it because the $1.2 trillion bill contains earmarks totaling $8 billion, the Washington Post says. "The American people said just 42 days ago, 'Enough!' … Are we tone deaf? Are we stricken with amnesia?" Sen. John McCain (R) said. The Post adds that the omnibus’ fate is uncertain, “with a key test vote likely later in the week. The White House has not rallied behind the Democratic proposal.” The reason the House passed a continuing resolution (C.R.) and not an omnibus is that they knew it was unlikely the Senate could get the omnibus through.

*** Starting START: Despite Kyl’s threat on New START, the Senate today will vote on whether to start debating on treaty, NBC’s Strickland reports. Because treaties have "privileged" status under Senate rules, the vote to bring it to the floor cannot be filibustered, and therefore only needs a simple majority vote of 51 to succeed. But after it reaches the floor, ratification could be problematic and dramatic. There are indications from Senate floor staff that Republicans who oppose ratification this year might require the Senate clerks to read the entire treaty -- word for word -- once the legislation is on the floor. That could take more than a dozen hours, Strick is told. The "reading of the bill" (or in this case “the treaty”) is always required under the rules. But in almost all cases, it’s waived by senators as a practical matter since bills can be hundreds of pages long. But if even on senator objects, the bill must be read. Could be a wild day in the Senate. By the way, could Reid's strategy on START and omnibus be simply, “You can't kill both." So kill omnibus; we’ll give you the C.R. But give us a START vote?

*** Tax endgame in the Senate: At noon this morning, Strick adds, the Senate will begin a series of votes that will ultimately lead to the passage of tax-cuts bill. There will be three votes that will attempt to change the bill, followed by the vote for passage of the tax bill itself. The votes to amend the bill -- proposed by the legislation’s staunchest opponents (Republicans Tom Coburn and Jim DeMint and independent Bernie Sanders) -- are expected to fail. The vote for passage, which sends the bill to House, should happen about 1:00 pm ET and pass with overwhelming bipartisan support. Indeed, NBC’s Kelly O’Donnell notes that Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), who voted against the procedural vote on Monday, says he will support the final measure today.

*** And the endgame in the House: And what’s the status of the tax deal in the House? It’s not all that clear. Per NBC’s Shawna Thomas, last night’s House Democratic caucus meeting was a lot like last week's without the dramatic special guest (Vice President Biden). Members were standing up, airing their opinions about the bill and talking about the specific things they want changed. Apparently, the leadership spent most of their time listening and not a lot of time presenting choices to their caucus. Speaker Nancy Pelosi left fairly early on to attend a service for the recently deceased Richard Holbrooke. "I would say that the leadership has not fully expressed their opinion yet," Rep. Peter DeFazio (D-OR) said. But Rep. Henry Waxman (D-CA) seemed to echo the message of "urgency" that Majority Leader Steny Hoyer spoke about earlier on Tuesday. "In the end of the day I think we're going to have to pass a bill,” Waxman said. “That's the view of many of us.”

*** Poll day: How does the American public view the tax deal? What about New START? And what about President Obama’s standing and his 2012 re-election prospects? Well, beginning at 6:30 pm ET, tune into NBC’s “Nightly News,” or click on to MSNBC.com, for the answers in our brand-new NBC/WSJ poll.

*** Thune’s shot at Romney? A day after Mitt Romney penned an op-ed opposing the tax deal, GOP Sen. John Thune -- who voted to end the filibuster on the legislation earlier this week, and who might run for president -- took a shot at critics of the deal. "It is easy to stand on the sidelines and criticize this deal," Thune said, per CNN. "And it would perhaps be politically expedient to stand on the sideline and criticize this tax deal. But to advocate against this tax deal is to advocate for a tax increase."

*** National Review’s shot at Steele: Speaking of taking shots, National Review is running an editorial blasting RNC Chairman Michael Steele’s bid for a second term and calling for “Anybody but Steele” to replace him. In 2012, National Review argues, it will be “crucial that every GOP institution be running on all cylinders. For all the Herculean work of the outside groups, there are certain tasks for which only the party committee is suited, given its ability to coordinate with state parties. If nothing else, the subpar reputation the RNC has earned under Steele’s leadership will make it impossible for the committee to work at its optimum.” More: Steele’s poor performance as chairman has had one fortunate side effect -- it has created a robust field of alternatives. It gives us no pleasure to say this, but none of them would be worse than Steele, and we believe any of them would be better. Someone else deserves a chance at the top of the RNC.”

*** Crossroads back on the air: Politico yesterday reported that the Rove-backed Crossroads GPS -- the entity that can keep its donors anonymous -- is airing $400,000 in radio ads in 12 congressional districts that Democrats barely won to put pressure on the Dems to back to tax-cut deal. Example: “[W]hose side is Congressman Tim Bishop on? Will he side with Nancy Pelosi to raise job-killing taxes, or with struggling families and the small businesses that can create the jobs we need?” But why is Crossroads GPS airing ads on something (the tax deal) that seems like a sure thing? And why is it targeting Democrats who will most likely vote for it? One theory: Crossroads GPS is a 501(c) organization. That designation allows it to keep its donors anonymous, but the law says that these non-profits’ primary purpose can’t be in express-advocacy politics (i.e., vote for or against a candidate). One way around this is for a non-profit to keep its express-advocacy spending below 50% of total expenditures. And that’s where these legislative-advocacy radio ads come in.

*** Crossroads’ response: But Crossroads spokesman Jonathan Collegio responds to First Read that these radio ads are about getting the tax deal across the finish line. “The ad urges the members named to demand that Pelosi holds a vote on the package before tax rates jump on January 1,” Collegio said. “It’s not enough to passively oppose a massive tax hike -- the only way the legislation will come to the floor is if these members stand up to Pelosi and demand a vote on this thing. That’s why we’re running the spots.”

*** Obama’s day: At 9:15 am ET, the president will make a statement to the press before he meets with prominent business leaders at the Blair House 15 minutes later.

*** Interviewing Biden: NBC’s Andrea Mitchell today interviews Vice President Biden, and a portion of the interview will air on NBC’s “Nightly News” and MSNBC today. The entire interview will air on MSNBC’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports” tomorrow.

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“Attempts to wrap up a bitterly contentious session of Congress fell into disarray Tuesday as Republicans vowed to filibuster a one-year spending bill and Democratic infighting threatened to sink the White House’s tax cut deal,” Roll Call writes. “By late Tuesday night, the only thing that seemed certain was that Congress will, for the second year in a row, be in session the week of Christmas.”

“The Senate will wrap up work on President Barack Obama’s tax cut deal Wednesday and begin debate on the new Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, punting an ugly fight over a one-year spending bill until Thursday night,” Roll Call writes.

Democrats yesterday said there are enough votes to ratify START. “Asked directly yesterday if at least 67 senators will vote to ratify START, Senate majority leader Harry Reid was definitive: ‘Yes,’” the Boston Globe writes. But: “Senator Jon Kyl of Arizona, who has led the opposition, suggested that Reid’s ambitions are too grand for the lame-duck session, which had been scheduled to end this Friday. ‘It is impossible to do all of the things that the majority leader laid out . . . without disrespecting the institution and without disrespecting one of the two holiest of holidays for Christians and the families of all of the Senate, not just the senators themselves but all of the staff,’ Kyl said yesterday.”

More Reid: “Christmas is a week from Saturday. I understand that,” he said at a press conference. “But I hope the Republicans understand it also, because we are going to complete our work no matter how long it takes in this Congress.”

(Let’s be clear: the only reason START is being dealt with so late in the lame-duck session is because Republicans wrote a letter vowing to filibuster anything until taxes and funding the government were resolved.)

The Senate is expected to vote today on the tax compromise. And then it moves to the House.

The Hill’s whip count shows 72 House Democrats are “firm no” on the tax bill, 11 are “leaning no,” and just 20 are “firm yes” and four are “leaning yes;” Five Republicans also say they are “firm or likely no,” including Michele Bachmann, Jason Chaffetz, Jeff Flake, Steve King, and Mike Pence.

“Senate Democrats have filed a $1.1 trillion omnibus spending bill that would fund the government through fiscal year 2011, according to Senate GOP sources,” The Hill reports. Thune came out sharply against it, but Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and others are considering voting in favor of the bill.

The Washington Post says the omnibus’ “fate was uncertain Tuesday, with a key test vote likely later in the week. The White House has not rallied behind the Democratic proposal. President Obama grew to oppose earmarks when he was a senator and he chided Congress when he signed a similarly massive spending bill in March 2009.”

Speaker-in-waiting John Boehner wants President Obama to veto the omnibus.

Dana Milbank lobs this grenade in the opening of his latest column: “Dear Tea Party voter: You've been had.” He notes Kristi Noem (R-SD) -- and 13 other freshmen Republicans -- hiring a lobbyist as to run their offices and hob-nobbing with them as a guest of honor at a recent reception. More: “It was probably inevitable that the Tea Party activists would be betrayed, but the speed with which congressional Republicans have reverted to business-as-usual has been impressive. House Republican leaders rejected a Tea Party-backed candidate as the new chairman of the House Appropriations Committee, instead installing Hal Rogers of Kentucky, who is known as the ‘Prince of Pork’ and who once said pork is a ‘bad word for making good things happen.’”

With Roy Blunt moving to the Senate, Majority Leader Steny Hoyer is trying to bolster his across-the-aisle relationships with the new leadership team, Roll Call writes.

President Obama will delay his annual trip to his birth state of Hawaii in order to sign the tax bill.

The New York Times’s Leonhardt notes that conservatives’ political attacks against the health-care law are similar to the conservatives’ (unsuccessful) crusades against Medicare, Social Security, and other expansions of the safety net.

"Rahm Emanuel, President Obama’s former chief of staff, testified yesterday about his wife’s wedding dress, family china, and car registrations to prove that he meets a residency requirement to run for mayor of Chicago,” the AP writes, adding, “The Emanuels left china, photo albums, and the dress at their Chicago home when they moved to Washington in 2009, he said. He can’t live in the house while exploring a mayoral bid because he hasn’t been able to persuade the tenant in his 2,719-square-foot home to move out before the lease expires in June.”

The Washington Post’s write-up of its new Post/ABC poll: “The midterm elections - in which Republicans gained 63 seats to take control of the House and added six seats to their Senate minority - were widely seen as a rebuke to President Obama. Still, the public trusts Obama marginally more than they do congressional Republicans to deal with the country's main problems in the coming years, 43 percent to 38 percent. The poll suggests that the election, while perhaps a vote against the status quo, was not a broad mandate for Republicans and their plans. The survey also underscores the degree to which Americans are conflicted about who they think is setting the agenda in Washington.”

Steele watch: “Senate Republicans unhappy with the leadership of the Republican National Committee are quietly pushing for change in the wake of Chairman Michael Steele opting to run for a second term,” Roll Call reports. “Congressional Republicans have little influence over the RNC leadership elections. That factor, and a desire to avoid inserting the heavy hand of Washington into a contest mostly decided by 168 RNC committee members in the states, has led many Senate Republicans to keep out of the debate over Steele. But two key Senate Republicans on Tuesday expressed what many in their Conference have been feeling throughout the chairman’s controversial two-year tenure” -- Jim DeMint and John Thune.

“Iowa’s Republican National Committee delegation is divided in the race for the GOP’s national chairman,” the Des Moines Register writes. “On Monday, state Chairman Matt Strawn said he was supporting former Iowan Gentry Collins, who resigned as the RNC’s national political director last month. Today, Iowa’s Republican National Committeeman Steve Scheffler said Tuesday he was for Wisconsin Republican Party Chairman Reince Priebus in the RNC chairmanship race.”

The Wall Street Journal examines the rift between prospective presidential candidates created by the tax cut debate: “In opposing the deal, Ms. Palin and Mr. Romney are aligning themselves with several large tea-party groups that see the tax deal as a betrayal of the Republican Party's pledge during the last election to slash spending and attack the deficit… Those supporting the deal [Gingrich, Huckabee, Pawlenty] reflect a wider Republican sentiment: that any tax cut is good and should be embraced, even if it is part of a bill that causes heartburn on other fronts.”

Hot Air’s AllahPundit notes, “Paul Ryan, Grover Norquist, and Freedom Works are in favor of the deal, but a whole lot of conservative rock stars on the right are now against it -- from Pence to Palin to Bachmann to talk radio to grassroots outfits like the Tea Party Patriots. How many House liberals are willing to bite the bullet and vote yes for Obama’s sake to replace defecting votes on the GOP side?”

BARBOUR: “The state has launched the 'Broadband for Mississippi' website, Gov. Haley Barbour said Monday, part of a federally funded effort to increase Internet access in Mississippi, which ranks last in the nation,” the Biloxi-Gulfport SunHerald writes.

PALIN: In a new poll to be released today by EMILY’s List, “Eighty percent of the women tested in the poll favored the president in a contest against Palin, while just 10 percent said they’d support the former GOP vice presidential candidate.”

GOP 12’s Christian Heinze on Palin’s announcement that she will do an interview with ABC’s Robin Roberts: “The Roberts interview is another sign she's thinking about trying to reach indies that have, so far, rejected her. Winning their favor right now matters, because even though indies don't (usually) vote in GOP primaries, Palin has to start selling Republicans on her electability.”

“A new political fund-raising group called ‘Draft Sarah Palin’ registered with the Federal Election Commission this month, federal records indicate, and the committee's treasurer has a history of big-time fund-raising,” the Center for Responsive Politics reports.

PAWLENTY: Minnesota public unions are hitting back at Pawlenty.

Merry Christmas, Iowa. Pawlenty is sending out Christmas cards to Iowa Republicans, including Craig Robinson, the former Iowa GOP political director who now runs The Iowa Republican Web site.

PENCE: Put Mike Pence in the “no” column with Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin on the tax deal.

“A possible House vote on the tax cut compromise between President Barack Obama and congressional Republicans could derail a trip by Rep. Mike Pence to South Carolina Wednesday,” CNN writes.

THUNE: “South Dakota Sen. John Thune took a veiled swipe at Mitt Romney on the Senate floor Tuesday, saying it’s ‘easy’ and ‘possibly even politically expedient to stand on the sidelines and criticize’ the tax cut proposal backed by President Obama and GOP congressional leaders,” Politico writes.

The Hill also picks up on Thune’s speech as a shot at Romney and Palin.

NEW HAMPSHIRE: “The New Hampshire Union Leader, WMUR-TV and CNN announced they will host the first primary debate in the first primary state on June 7, 2011 in Manchester,” the Wall Street Journal writes. “That is a remarkably late start by 2008 campaign standards, but the Republican hopefuls appear to be keeping their powder dry.”

ALASKA: “Alaska should have a U.S. senator in place by the time Congress convenes in early January, even if all of the legal wrangling between the two rivals contesting the seat isn't resolved by then, a federal judge said Tuesday,” AP writes. “U.S. District Judge Ralph Beistline said in a written order that certification of the race between Republicans Joe Miller and Sen. Lisa Murkowski doesn't necessarily mean the end of the court battle. He said it's possible that the certification could be revoked if it was done in error and suggested the sides submit legal briefings on that issue.”

From NBC's Ken Strickland
Senate Republican leaders’ top point man on the new Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty said Tuesday that he "will work very hard" to ensure that the treaty is not ratified if it's brought to the Senate floor in the waning days of the lame duck session.

Sen. Jon Kyl, R-Ariz., argues that there is not enough time to thoroughly debate and possibly amend the START measure before the Senate adjourns for the year. Majority Leader Harry Reid plans to bring the treaty to the Senate floor following completion of the tax cuts bill this week.

"I let the Majority Leader know that's an issue for a lot of my colleagues," Kyl told reporters Tuesday. "And if he does bring it up, I will work very hard to achieve that result, namely that the treaty fails."

Treaty supporters touted Republican Sen. Olympia Snowe's announcement last week that she will support ratification. But Snowe’s statement of support included a caveat that echoed Kyl's concerns: in a written release, she said she will vote to approve the measure as long as Reid offers it in "a framework that allows for sufficient debate and amendments."

At a news conference today, Reid said he had enough Republican support to secure the 67 votes needed to ratify the treaty, which is a top priority of the White House.

But Kyl was quick to disagree with that assessment.

"I will resist the temptation to go over the record of things where the Majority Leader had predicted something prematurely," Kyl said.

After standing at the podium silently for a few moments, he added with a grin, "If I'm really going to resist the temptation, I better resist the temptation."

From NBC's Jim Miklaszewski
A gay-rights advocacy group has called for the immediate resignation of the Marine Corps' commandant for his claim today that the repeal of "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" could risk the lives of his Marines.

Gen. James Amos told a group of print reporters today that the recent Pentagon report on "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" revealed that the repeal of the law could result in "distractions" that could threaten Marines in combat.

"Mistakes and inattention or distractions costs Marines lives," Amos said. "I take that very seriously. I don't want to lose any Marines to the distraction. I don't want to have any Marines that I'm visiting at Bethesda [Naval Hospital], with no legs be the result of any type of distraction."

In a brief statement, the Servicemembers Legal Defense Network, a gay servicemembers-rights group demanded, "Gen. Amos needs to fall in line and salute or resign now."

In his confirmation hearing and a recent hearing on "Don't Ask, Don't Tell," Amos has openly stated his opposition to the immediate repeal of the law while his Marines are actively engaged in fighting the war in Afghanistan.

From NBC's Courtney Kube
A State Department official warns against making too much of Ambassador Richard Holbrooke's widely-reported sentiment to stop the war in Afghanistan that he uttered just before going in to surgery last week.

“You’ve got to stop this war in Afghanistan,” he said, per the Washington Post.

The official said that Holbrooke's doctors were urging him to calm down as they were preparing him for surgery last week. As they told him to settle down, he replied that he had too much to do. They told him they would take care of everything while he was in surgery and he joked back that if they could do his job, then they should see what they can do about stopping the war in Afghanistan, too.

The official said that Holbrooke had multiple doctors in the room at the time, including a Pakistani doctor, but there is "no indication" he was speaking to the Pakistani doctor when he said this. In fact, the official said the doctor he was speaking to at the time was Egyptian.

State Department spokesperson PJ Crowley also addressed this story during today's briefing, saying there was "a lengthy exchange with Holbrooke and the medical team."

Crowley said that when the medical team told Holbrooke to relax, he responded, "I can't relax. I'm worried about Afghanistan and Pakistan." Crowley said that after more back-and-forth, the medical team finally said, "We'll tell you what, we'll try to fix this challenge while you're undergoing surgery." Crowley said that Holbrooke joked, "Yeah, see if you can take care of that, including ending the war."

Crowley warned that there was no transcript of this exchange, and that it is based on Crowley's conversations with several people who were in the room at the time.

Crowley joked that this said two things about Holbrooke: "No. 1, he always wanted to make sure he got the last word." Two: "It showed how he was singularly focused on pursuing and advancing the the process and the policies in Afghanistan and Pakistan to bring them to a successful conclusion."

From msnbc.com's Tom Curry
Months from now, a federal appeals court or the United States Supreme Court might reverse Monday’s ruling by federal district court judge Henry Hudson that struck down the health care law’s requirement that individuals buy insurance (also known as the “individual mandate” in health care jargon).

For the moment, Hudson’s ruling has refocused attention on one of the crucial ingredients in insurance reform: improving insurance risk pools.

The health care law hinges on the millions of young and healthy people – good insurance risks -- who have decided they’d rather do without insurance.

Under the new law, 24 million people will be buying insurance through new purchasing “exchanges” regulated by the federal government. The more healthy people that the federal government can nudge into insurance risk pools, the lower will be the average cost in each risk pool. (As the Congressional Budget Office reported last June, “in the absence of a mandate, those who enroll would be less healthy, on average, than those enrolled with a mandate.”)

If the new people entering an insurance risk pool are less healthy, then the premiums will at some point become too costly for most members – or too costly for the taxpayers if the government is paying to cover the uninsured.

According to the Kaiser Commission, nearly one-third of the uninsured in 2007 were between ages 19 and 29. Paul Fronstin at the Employment Benefit Research Institute, a nonpartisan research group in Washington, said last year that bringing in the young and healthy uninsured would reduce the average cost of care “because you’ve brought in more people in paying (premiums), but not necessarily more people using health care.”

That’s why there was so much focus during the congressional debate last year on the so-called “young invincibles” – healthy people who go uninsured.

Sen. John Kerry, D- Mass explained it this way during the Senate Finance Committee debate last year: “It is critical to have what we call the young invincibles purchase coverage and come into the marketplace, because without them premiums are going to go up for everyone. If the insurers anticipate that they won't have a risk pool that is balanced between the older sicker and the younger healthier, then they will charge a (higher) premium that reflects the fact that they anticipate getting a sicker risk pool.”

The crucial money isn’t the revenue brought in by the penalties for being uninsured --$4 billion per year starting in 2017, according to the CBO -- but the flow of premium payments from those who were previously uninsured.

Obama knew that mandatory purchase of insurance would be a difficult idea to sell politically. In fact, he’d campaigned against the individual mandate in the Democratic primaries in 2008.

And, in selling his plan in 2009, he repeatedly emphasized its non-coercive aspect: “If you like what you're getting, keep it. Nobody is forcing you to shift,” he said.

Nonetheless he came around to the idea that forcing people to buy insurance was necessary. As he explained at a July 2009 press conference, “Unless you have a what's called a single-payer system in which everybody is automatically covered, then you're probably not going to reach every single individual, because there's always going to be somebody out there who thinks they're indestructible and doesn't want to get health care….. And then unfortunately when they get hit by a bus, they end up in the emergency room and the rest of us have to pay for it.”

Equally as important are those who don’t get hit by a bus: their premium payments help make the risk pools work.

Hudson’s ruling raised the possibility the overhaul would be unraveled if those young invincibles get the chance to opt out.

From NBC's Pete Williams
The Justice Department says the government will appeal Monday's ruling that found a portion of the health-care law unconstitutional.

The Department believes this case should follow the ordinary course of allowing the courts of appeals to hear it first so the issues and arguments can be fully developed before the Supreme Court decides whether to consider it. As Judge Hudson noted in denying an injunction, the individual responsibility provision does not go into effect until 2014, so there is more than sufficient time for the courts to consider this case in their normal course of business.

From NBC's Shawna Thomas and Mark Murray
A stand-alone bill to repeal "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" has been introduced in the House of Representatives. It's sponsored by Rep. Patrick Murphy (D-PA) and co-sponsored by Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD). The bill number is H.R. 6520.

The text of the bill is identical to the bill that Sens. Joe Lieberman (I-D-CT) and Susan Collins (R-ME) introduced on Dec. 10 in the Senate.

Right now, there's not a timeframe for bringing the actual legislation to the House floor for debate.

This stand-alone strategy comes after Senate Republicans blocked a defense authorization bill containing a measure that repealed DADT.

From NBC's Jim Miklaszewski
The Army lieutenant colonel who refused to deploy to Afghanistan because he claims President Obama is not a natural-born American has pleaded guilty to one charge against him.

Lt. Col. Terrence Lakin pleaded guilty to not reporting to Fort Campbell (KY) for his deployment to Afghanistan. Lakin claims the order from President Obama as commander-in-chief is "unlawful" because he has not proven he was born in the United States.

Lakin could face up to 18 months in prison, but Army officials tell NBC News instead of jail time it's "likely" the court will order him discharged from the Army.

That could prove to be expensive. Army officials say at 18 years of service, Lakin is two years short of full retirement, which over a lifetime could total as much as a couple million dollars in retirement pay and benefits.

Lakin still faces court martial on a second charge of missing his flight to Afghanistan.

The tax cut compromise making its way through Congress might be winning bipartisan approval, but neither political party is united in supporting the proposal.

While most of the intra-party angst over the measure has focused on infighting Democrats, the deal is also turning into a kind of political Rorschach test for the GOP.

Where some Republican leaders see coveted tax breaks that they believe will push the balance sheets of American businesses back into the black, others are focused on what they see as a big black hole in the nation’s debt.

The latest salvo against the deal came from 2012 GOP candidate-in-waiting Mitt Romney. In a USA Today op-ed, the former Massachusetts governor slammed the deal’s price tag and argued that the temporary nature of the tax cut extensions would aggravate uncertainty in the American economy.

“The deal delivers short-term economic stimulus, and it does so at the very time [President Barack Obama] wants it most, before the 2012 elections,” he wrote. “But the long term health of our great engine of prosperity will remain very much in doubt.”

The announcement from the presumed White House contender puts him in the camp of conservative senators like Sen. Jim DeMint of South Carolina, who was one of five Republican senators to oppose last night’s motion to move the legislation forward. DeMint – who was joined by Sens. Tom Coburn, Jeff Sessions, John Ensign, and retiring moderate George Voinovich in voting against cloture – warned last week that the plan is “going to give a lot of Republicans who just ran for office heartburn.”

Others who have raised objections to the deal include:

• Conservative fiscal-hawk group Club for Growth, which said the deal “would resurrect the death tax, grow government, blow a hole in the deficit with unpaid-for spending, and do so without providing the permanent relief and security our economy needs to finally start hiring and growing again.”
• The Tea Party Patriots, a national grassroots organization dedicated to “constitutionally limited government” and fiscal responsibility. Calling the proposal “problematic,” the group pointed to several tenets of the House Republican “Pledge to America” that it believes the tax cut deal would violate.
• A group of House Republicans, including Reps. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota, Jason Chaffetz of Utah, and Darrell Issa of California. Chaffetz, who may mount a primary challenge against GOP senator Orrin Hatch in 2012, warned in an interview with Politico that the vote on the tax deal is akin to the “TARP and stimulus” measures – which happened to scuttle Hatch’s Utah colleague Bob Bennett's re-election bid at the hands of a Tea Party-aligned candidate. Issa, the House GOP’s lead government watchdog, called the Senate version of the bill “an incomplete effort that fails to create a permanent tax structure giving businesses the kind of long term predictability needed to support investment, economic growth and job creation.”
• Former vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin, who tweeted her concerns: “Obviously Obama is so very, very wrong on the economy & spins GOP tax cut goals; so fiscal conservatives: we expect you to fight for us & America's solvency.”
• *** UPDATE *** Republican Rep. Mike Pence of Indiana said Tuesday afternoon that he will vote against the tax cut package, citing concerns about the deficit. "At the end of the day, I've just come to the conclusion: the American people did not vote for more stimulus," he said on Sean Hannity's radio show. Pence is also discussed as a possible candidate for president in 2012.

By highlighting concerns about the deficit and opposing the deal, Romney and Palin may earn the esteem of Tea Party activists and other fiscal conservatives who echo their worries about America’s long-term fiscal health. But it also places them at odds with a number of other prominent GOP figures and presidential contenders – as well as with Republican congressional leaders and bipartisan majorities of Americans asked about the deal in recent polls.

Other potential 2012 candidates, like Newt Gingrich and Mike Huckabee, have backed the deal. Sen. John Thune of South Dakota, also viewed as likely to jump into the presidential contest, joined over 80 of his Senate colleagues to vote for cloture yesterday – although he has noted that a permanent extension would have been preferable.

“It’s the right thing to do for the country,” Thune said last week. “We need to get this tax rate issue addressed so that we don’t have this massive tax increase occur on Jan. 1.”

*** UPDATE II *** In a speech on the Senate floor Tuesday afternoon, Thune accused opponents of the deal of taking a "politically expedient" position that would result in tax hikes for all Americans.

"Inaction is not an option," he said, without mentioning Romney or other Republican opponents of the deal by name. "And advocating against this proposal is no different than advocating for higher taxes."

From NBC's Ken Strickland
It appears that the Senate will move try to tackle two legislative priorities at once, as soon as it finishes the tax-cut bill: 1) the New START treaty and 2) the government spending bill. This information comes from a Democratic and Republican source.

The two-at-once procedure is known as "dual tracking."

It essentially means trying to pass two different bills at the same time, alternating debate and votes on the floor.

Expect to hear more about it from Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid at his news conference this afternoon.

On the website for his 527 group American Solutions, Newt Gingrich praised the Virginia health care ruling which declared the individual mandate portion of President Obama’s health care reform bill unconstitutional, calling the decision “an enormous victory for all Americans.”

Congress should finish the job by repealing this flawed legislation and replacing it with market-based, individually centered health reform that leads to affordable coverage for all Americans.

Full repeal is going to be a very long, difficult fight - but today's ruling is a huge victory that should not be overlooked.

Last week, Gingrich weighed in on the tax cut deal - tweeting that it too was a “great victory for American people and GOP leadership.” That comment put him on the opposite side of the issue than Mitt Romney, who, we wrote today, criticized the temporary nature of the bill and the fact that it adds to the deficit.

From NBC's Luke Russert
Last week, Hill reporters were taking bets on when House Democrats would pivot from their anger at President Obama and the tax deal he cut with Republicans.

Well, it looks like today is the day.

"We believe there are provisions in the bill that a very helpful in growing the economy. In stepping in to assist those who lost their unemployment insurance," House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer said today.

He added, "We also think that making sure middle-class taxes don't go up is absolutely essential to grow, expand the economy and create jobs."

More Hoyer: "The vote in the Senate yesterday, 83-15, there is strong support for moving ahead. The reason? There is a very keen sense that allowing middle-class taxes to go up after January 1st, will not be good for the economy."

Hoyer went on to say that the House Democrats are meeting as a caucus meeting tonight. Many liberals are still upset about the estate-tax issue. Hoyer indicated that perhaps there might be a House vote on an amendment to the Senate bill that switches the Senate estate-tax language.

House sources told NBC News that the amendment would most likely be defeated by Republicans and moderate Democrats -- and thus wouldn't change the Senate bill.

Remember: The Senate does not want to see ANY changes to its bill in the House. When Hoyer was asked whether there were enough moderate Democrats and Republicans to pass the president's compromise, he said, "I'd be surprised if it was just limited to Blue Dogs on our side."

That seems to suggest the votes are there in the House for the president's deal.

The vote could be taken up as early as Thursday, and the schedule likely will be figured out tonight at the House caucus meeting.