From NBC's Alexandra Moe
In a sign that this presidential cycle might not be as long as 2007-2008, no candidates have declared they are running yet, none have formed exploratory committees, and most have indicated they are going to wait to announce their bids until Spring 2011.

By the end of 2006, five Republican candidates had already formed exploratory committees, including John McCain.

But there is something of a shadow campaign already underway. The first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses are still more than a year away. (They will be held Feb. 6, a month later than in 2008.) But potential GOP candidates, according to the Des Moines Register, have already made some 31 stops in the Hawkeye State this year.

Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty and Newt Gingrich lead the pack with seven stops each. Former Sen. Rick Santorum has been there four times; Former Gov. Sarah Palin, who just wrapped up a book tour with two stops in the state, has been there three times, as has – somewhat surprisingly – Ron Paul; Mike Huckabee, who won the 2008 caucuses, Mitt Romney, and Haley Barbour have each been there twice; and Mike Pence once.

It’s not clear yet exactly who will participate in the Iowa caucuses, but it will be upon the political world sooner than many think. The Iowa State Fair kicks off next summer (Aug. 11) and, by the way, expect to hear even more about that butter cow – 2011 marks the 100th year a cow has been sculpted out of butter at the fair.

**UPDATE: In an earlier version of this post, we had reported that five Republican candidates had formed exploratory committees by Dec. 6, 2006 but we have corrected that as five had been formed as of Dec. 13, 2006.

From NBC’s Courtney Kube and Carrie Dann
Defense Secretary Robert Gates, a supporter of repeal of the military’s Don’t Ask Don’t Tell policy, said Monday that he is “not particularly optimistic” that Congress will act on legislation before the end of the year to repeal the ban on gays and lesbians serving openly.

"The Congress has two weeks to act on the legislation and I'm not particularly optimistic that they will get this done," he said at an event aboard aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln. "I would hope that they would."

Gates, who testified before the Senate Armed Services Committee on Thursday about the issue, reiterated his concern that courts will overturn the policy before lawmakers nix the existing law, triggering a messy and disorganized implementation.

“My greatest fear is that we have to be told that this law will be overturned by a court and we will be forced to implement it without any time for information or training, or any of the other efforts that need to be undertaken to prepare us for such a change,” he said.

Gates also mentioned the testimony of the chiefs of each branch of the military, who appeared before Senate lawmakers Friday.

The Defense Secretary said that he agrees with the chiefs that “a change in this law is inevitable” and noted the argument of some (notably Gen. James Amos, the commandant of the Marine Corps) that the repeal should be deferred until the nation is no longer engaged in combat missions abroad.

He disagrees with such a delay, saying that he doesn’t see “the world getting any safer in the next 10 years.”

“I don't think the world is going to get any less stressful in the years ahead,” Gates said.

President Obama made his fifth trip to the swing state of North Carolina on Monday, as Democrats and Republicans in Washington appeared close to reaching a costly deal that would extend Bush era cuts for all income levels and aid for the jobless.

The president has said he would oppose any extension of the Bush tax cuts if it was not accompanied by an extension of unemployment insurance benefits and of other tax cuts for middle class families.

Obama made his position clear in a conversation on Saturday with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and outgoing House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and Vice President Biden spoke with Pelosi at his residence last night to talk about these and other issues in the lame-duck session. The White House argues taxes would still rise for 95 percent of Americans if other tax cuts are not also extended, like the Making Work Pay credit that was part of the stimulus. It is unclear where members of Congress stand on extending that relief.

Today in North Carolina, Obama stressed the importance of reaching a deal between the two parties to help protect the country's economy.

"We've got to find consensus here, because a middle-class tax hike would be very tough not only on working families, it would also be a drag on our economy at this moment, so I believe we should keep in place tax cuts for workers and small businesses that are set to expire," Obama told the audience at Forsyth Technical Community College in Winston-Salem. "We've got to make sure that we're coming up with a solution even if it's not 100% of what I want or what the Republicans want. There's no reason ordinary that Americans should see their taxes go up next year."

The president said extending unemployment insurance was not only the right thing to do, but the smart thing to do, because a failure to do so would drag down consumer spending, hurting businesses and slowing down hiring and the recovery.

Obama ran on a promise to end the tax cuts for families making more than $250,000 a year, but Senate Republicans blocked efforts over the weekend to make the tax cuts for middle-class families permanent or to raise the threshold for the tax relief to those making $1 million, forcing the two sides to find another solution.

The 9.8 percent jobless rate in November marked the 19th-straight month with the rate above 9 percent and was a sign the nation's slow recovery from the worst recession since the Great Depression has failed to put enough people back to work. Republicans have long argued that in these bad economic times, no one's taxes should go up and that government spending should be cut to help reduce the deficit. They want to see the extension of jobless benefits offset by other spending, a move Democrats oppose.

In an interview with CBS's "60 Minutes" on Sunday, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke warned against taking actions this year that would "affect this year's spending and this year's taxes in a way that will hurt the recovery."

Still, extending the tax cuts for all would cost an estimated $4 trillion over the next decade at a time when many members of Congress, Republicans especially, ran their campaigns on promises to rein in spending in the face of the massive federal budget deficit and Bernanke and numerous other economists have warned the nation's long-term structural deficit remains a major concern.

Investing in education, innovation and infrastructure
Upon arriving at Forsyth, the president toured the college's bio tech facilities. The administration believes community colleges will be key if the country is to meet the goal he has set of leading the world in the proportion of college graduates by 2020. He called on Congress and the private sector to work with him to help America invest in education, innovation and infrastructure, arguing that even if tough economic times, it was important to make sure the country could compete globally.

"Over the next several weeks, I'm going to be meeting with my economic team, with business leaders and others to develop specific policies and budget recommendations for the coming year," Obama said.

White House spokesman Bill Burton declined to outline any specific proposals, indicating more details could come out in next month's State of the Union address.

The president, who was joined at the event by North Carolina Gov. Bev Perdue and by Sens. Richard Burr (R-NC) and Kay Hagan (D-NC), closed his remarks by asking the two parties to put politics aside.

"Those of us who work in Washington have a choice to make in the coming weeks and months," he said. "We can focus on what's necessary for each party to win the news cycle or the next election. We can do what we've been doing or we can do what this moment demands and focus on what's necessary for America to win the future."

Wisconsin GOP chairman Reince Priebus made it official today and is getting into the race for RNC chairman.

Priebus, who served as this RNC's general counsel until this past weekend, was close to Steele and helped elect him in 2009.

Here's his five-and-a-half-minute announcement video:

The video touts Republicans' gains in Wisconsin, including winner the governorship, a U.S. Senate seat, two House seats, the state Assembly and Senate.

Very hopeful-sounding piano music plays in the background while others, including Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI), speak glowingly of Priebus.

"This is your victory," Ryan says in the video, adding, "Thank you for making this possible."

Priebus, who appears later in the video, notes, with perhaps a veiled shot at current RNC Chairman Michael Steele, "We all stayed on message....," he says of candidates and officials in Wisconsin.

Laying out his reasons for running, he says, "Our country is in a time of great peril" and that this election "really is the most important election" because "real damage" is being doing by President Obama and Democratic leaders in Congress.

"I don't believe we can win the presidency without a highly functioning RNC," Priebus says, "and unfortunately, we don't have that today."

He adds, "If you're looking for someone with an inflated ego, and thinks they know it all, that isn't me."

(Hat tip: Jonathan Martin via Ben Smith.)

Politico's Martin and Smith remind the political world not to forget about Mike Huckabee when looking ahead to the 2012 GOP presidential contest.

Dial down the deafening Sarah Palin buzz for just a moment: The most consequential decision in the 2012 Republican presidential sweepstakes could be whether Mike Huckabee decides to run again – and associates say the former Arkansas governor may well take the plunge.

If Huckabee gets in, he will unquestionably be a force to be reckoned with in the fight for the nomination. He’d be the undisputed frontrunner in lead-off Iowa, where he won by nine points in 2008. He’d be the candidate to beat in South Carolina, which he narrowly lost to John McCain two years ago in part because of a divided conservative vote. His weekly Fox show, thrice-daily radio program and Grisham-like ability to crank out a book-per-year has given him a direct media presence akin to Palin’s – but without the sky-high negatives.

And should Huckabee stay out, it would create a vacuum on the right among both religious conservatives and tea party activists that would significantly re-order the race and potentially create a larger opening for Palin.

And will Huck run? Some mixed opinions.

“My sense is he would like to do it,” said longtime GOP consultant Ed Rollins, Huckabee’s 2008 campaign chairman and still a close adviser.

“He’s truly enjoying what he’s doing right now,” added Chip Saltsman, the governor’s 2008 campaign manager and another close confidante, noting that Huckabee has “never really made any money.”

“But it’s hard to ignore these early polls that show him at top of the food chain,” said Saltsman.

Huckabee’s daughter, Sarah, went even further.

“I certainly wouldn’t count him out,” she said. “There is as good a chance that he runs at this point as he doesn’t.”

While some think President Obama's "core" coalition "has been shattered," here are some numbers from our latest NBC News-Wall Street Journal poll that looks at Obama's approval among some of those "core" groups:

- Blacks: 90% approve/6% disapprove
- Democrats: 82/12
- Liberals: 79/16
- Latinos: 56/33
- Post grads: 56/41
- UPDATE: 18-29: 53/38
- UPDATE 2: NBC's Ana Maria Arumi notes that in the 2010 midterm exit polls, voters 18-29 said they approved of the president's job by a 62/38 margin, which is close to how they voted in 2008 -- 66/32
- Women: 52/43
- 18-34: 49/43

Obama’s overall approval in this poll was 47/47 and was conducted from Nov. 11-15, after the Nov. 2nd midterms that saw Democrats lose 63 seats in the House -- a post-WWII record -- and six seats in the Senate.

As Republican pollster Bill McInturff, who conducts the NBC/WSJ poll with Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart, said after the poll, “It’s a reminder again … for a guy who took a shellacking, he’s got a pretty strong core pulse.” He cited Obama’s strong support among a core constituency of younger women, blacks, Latinos, young voters, voters in the West, and under-30 urban moderates. “This is a president that retains political standing,” he added.

Where Obama has serious deficits is not with his "core" groups, but with swing voters, Republicans, and whites. He is upside-down with independents, who moved his way in 2008, and has become much more polarizing in two years with the GOP.

And that could make for an election that looks more similar to 2004 -- decided by a state or two -- rather than the '08 landslide.

Alaska Sen. Mark Begich (D) has just issued a press release asking Joe Miller (R) to quit his legal challenge against Lisa Murkowski's (R-write-in) apparent victory.

"It is time for Joe Miller to put Alaska interests ahead of personal ambition and allow the State of Alaska to certify Lisa Murkowski as the winner,” Begich said.

“Failure to certify the election could prevent Senator Murkowski from being sworn into office in early January when other new senators officially take office.

“As many in Washington are united against securing funding for important road and public facility projects in individual states, it’s vital that Alaska have both senators putting our unique needs first and fighting for our state. Without both senators, Alaska’s interests will be at risk on critical issues from energy development to job creation and reducing the national debt in a way that’s fair to Alaskans.”

White House and Senate GOPers close in on deal to temporarily extend all the Bush tax cuts in return for an extension on jobless benefits… How did we get here? Two explanations: 1) the votes aren’t there for Democrats, and 2) the economy is worse off than they probably expected it would be a year ago… Question for Dems: Do they fight on these tax cuts or try to get things done in the lame duck?... Another question: Why didn’t they try to work on the Bush tax cuts six months ago?... And get this: Extending the Bush tax cuts, jobless benefits, and other tax cuts for two years will likely cost more than the stimulus did… Obama discusses the economy at 12:20 pm ET in Winston-Salem, NC… And the end is nearing in Minnesota’s gubernatorial recount.

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** Done deal? Today’s New York Times reports that the Obama White House and Senate Republicans are closing in on a deal to temporarily extend the Bush tax cuts for all income levels -- for two years perhaps? -- in return for also extending jobless benefits and the Obama middle- class tax cuts from the 2009 stimulus. The deal could happen this week. As NBC’s Savannah Guthrie noted on “TODAY,” senior administration officials said President Obama has threatened to oppose even a temporary extension of the Bush tax cuts unless unemployment benefits and other target tax cuts are also included. And it appears that Senate Republicans are more than open to that deal. “I think we will extend unemployment compensation,” Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell said on “Meet the Press” yesterday. By the way, the deal appears to be more done than folks realize, but the issue continues to be the White House selling it to congressional Democrats, which will take place tomorrow on Capitol Hill when the parties hold their caucus meetings.

*** How we got here: So how did we get to the point where Obama is about to break one of his biggest campaign promises in extending the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy? First, the votes weren’t there for Democrats. On Saturday, Senate Republicans -- assisted by a handful of Democrats -- filibustered two amendments that would have 1) extended the Bush tax cuts only for those making less than $250,000 and 2) extended them for those making less than $1 million. And if Democrats don’t have the votes now, they certainly won’t have them next year when the next Congress convenes. Second, the employment situation is worse off than anyone would have expected a year ago, and that has put an enormous amount of pressure on Democrats not to change the current tax policy, even if the facts don't necessarily fit the narrative that tax cuts create jobs. If the economy was creating 200,000 to 300,000 jobs per month -- instead of the 39,000 in November -- Democrats would have a stronger argument to let the cuts expire. Now? “We don't want to take actions this year that will affect this year's spending and this year's taxes in a way that will hurt the recovery,” Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said last night on “60 Minutes.”

*** Fighting vs. getting things done: Of course, as Paul Krugman advises, President Obama could draw a line in the sand and threaten to veto any legislation that cuts taxes for the wealthy -- either in this lame duck or next year. But in addition to opening himself up to the charge of raising taxes in a struggling economy, that action would also imperil all the other items on Obama’s to-do list: jobless benefits, “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” repeal, and ratification of New START. A question for Democrats: Would getting those priorities through the lame duck be worth caving in on the Bush tax cuts? On Sunday, Indiana GOP Sen. Dick Lugar said the votes are there to pass New START. And on Friday, GOP Sen. Scott Brown said he backs DADT repeal, which improves the likelihood of that happening. And then there’s this: Is December -- when few Americans are really paying attention -- really the time to draw a line in the sand and fight?

*** Why didn’t congressional Democrats work on this six months ago? Here’s another question for Democrats, especially those on Capitol Hill who are upset that they seem to be caving in on the Bush tax cuts: Why didn’t they work on this last spring/summer, when they might have had a stronger hand to play? As the Times says, “In meetings with administration officials after the Senate votes, the House speaker, Nancy Pelosi, and many other House and Senate Democrats voiced deep unhappiness at the prospect of extending all the tax cuts and also expressed their belief that the White House did not appear to be getting enough for such a big concession.” It was the Capitol Hill Dem leadership -- more than the White House -- that pushed for putting off any votes on the Bush tax cuts. At the time, it was about trying to insulate some vulnerable Democrats from votes on taxes. Talk about short-sighted leadership decisions.

*** Bigger than the stimulus? And here’s something to chew on: Extending the Bush tax cuts for two years -- along with extending jobless benefits and targeted tax cuts -- would likely cost more (approximately $1 trillion) than the stimulus cost (approximately $800 billion). Here’s our back-of-envelope math arriving at the $1 trillion approximation: If the price tag of extending the Bush tax cuts over 10 years is nearly $4 trillion, then doing it for two years is some $800 billion. And extending the jobless benefits and targeted tax cuts raises that price tag even higher.

*** Obama’s day: Today, at 12:20 pm ET, President Obama gives a speech on the economy in Winston-Salem, NC. Per NBC's Athena Jones, this is Obama's fifth trip to the Tar Heel State since becoming president.

*** The end is near in Minnesota: “The first stage of Minnesota’s gubernatorial recount ended Friday as Hennepin County finished hand tallying roughly 470,000 ballots cast on Election Day and joined the state’s other 86 counties in taking a breather before the State Canvassing Board meets this week,” Minnesota Daily writes. “Republican Tom Emmer still trails DFL opponent Mark Dayton by 8,675 votes.” http://bit.ly/fHNH1c

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The New York Times front-pages, “White House officials and Congressional Republicans said Sunday they were closing in on a deal to temporarily continue the Bush-era tax cuts at all income levels, while bitterly frustrated Democratic Congressional leaders began exploring whether they would have the votes for such a package. A day after the Senate rejected President Obama’s preferred tax plan, officials said the broad contours of a compromise were in focus.”

The Washington Post: “The Senate Republican leadership telegraphed on the Sunday morning talk shows that a compromise to extend unemployment compensation and the George W. Bush-era tax cuts is in the offing. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and Sen. Jon Kyl (Ariz.), the Republican whip, told different interviewers that they expect Congress to vote for the tax cuts, which have been in effect for a decade, to continue unaltered for at least several years in exchange for an agreement to extend jobless benefits that are about to expire for millions of workers.”

“Their political options limited, Democrats and Republicans appeared to unite yesterday behind the outlines of an economic package that would temporarily extend expiring tax rates for all taxpayers as well as jobless benefits for millions of Americans,” per the AP.

“President Barack Obama on Saturday praised a newly sealed trade deal with South Korea as a landmark agreement that promises to boost the domestic auto industry and support tens of thousands of American jobs,” the New York Daily News says.

For the first time in his presidency, Obama issued pardons -- nine of them: “Four of the cases involved cocaine possession or distribution, while other charges included adultery, a liquor-law violation, writing bad checks and illegal possession of government property,” the New York Post writes. White House spokesman Reid Cherlin: "The president was moved by the strength of the applicants' post-conviction efforts at atonement, as well as their superior citizenship and individual achievements.”

The Hill: “President Obama on Sunday night paid tribute to Beatles singer Paul McCartney, talk-show icon Oprah Winfrey and acclaimed country music icon Merle Haggard, among others, as the newest honorees by the Kennedy Center.”

“Key Senate Republicans reflected divisions in the party yesterday over ratifying a new treaty with Russia to reduce nuclear weapons before year-end,” the Boston Globe writes, adding that Sen. Richard “Lugar told CNN he believed there was ‘strong bipartisan support’ for a lame-duck vote and that he thinks ‘the votes are there.’ But he said Democrats would first have to deal with GOP demands that Bush-era income tax cuts be extended and that legislation is passed to fund government spending in the current federal fiscal year.”

“Senator Charles Schumer is seeking to make it illegal for anyone to distribute or record the revealing images produced by full-body scanners at airports,” AP writes. “The New York Democrat introduced a bill yesterday that would set penalties of up to a year in prison and fines up to $100,000, or both.”

To DREAM the impossible DREAM: “The DREAM Act -- a priority of Democrats in both Congress and the White House -- faces a difficult future in the lame duck,” The Hill writes. “Even as Democrats in both chambers prepare to consider the measure this week, Republicans and moderate Democrats are already lining up to shoot it down.”

“A Republican senator is planning on introducing legislation this week that would allow state officials to challenge federal regulations before they go into effect,” The Hill adds. “Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) told The Hill that his states' rights bill is in large part a reaction to Democrats' healthcare reform law… The proposed law could also be used to challenge other regulations, such as those from the Environmental Protection Agency, he added.”

“Congressional Democrats say they need the support of just one more Senate Republican in a last-ditch effort to pass federal health benefits for police and firefighters stricken by illnesses allegedly from Ground Zero dust,” the New York Post reports. “The $7.4 billion bill could go to the Senate floor as early as Wednesday, and New York lawmakers are scrambling to secure the Republican support needed to pass it.”

The AP: “US Representative Charles Rangel returned to his home turf in the city’s Harlem neighborhood yesterday, saying he still loves Congress, despite a showdown with colleagues over ethics violations that led to his censure by the House.”

And is this the new standard? Rangel added, “I was not found guilty of corruption, I did not go to bed with kids, I did not hurt the House speaker, I did not start a revolution against the United States of America, I did not steal any money, I did not take any bribes and that is abundantly clear.”

The New York Daily News says Rangel was greeted with a standing ovation in Harlem.

He called the censure "an embarrassing and painful experience,” and added on CNN, per the New York Daily News: “I tell you, individually, whether it's Republicans or Democrats, they knew what I had done did not reach the level of a censure.”

“Reince Priebus, the Republican National Committee's top legal counsel, resigned his position early Sunday morning, The Hotline has learned, a move that will be widely interpreted as a major step toward running for chairman of the organization and a big blow to current chairman Michael Steele. Priebus, the chairman of the Wisconsin Republican Party, was once Steele's closest ally on the committee. Priebus pushed to elect Steele in 2009, and in the two years since has served as Steele's conduit with committee members.”

FLORIDA: Veep watch? “Sen.-elect Marco Rubio (Fla.) was one of the many Republicans who won in November because of voter disgust with ‘business as usual’ in Washington, D.C. Now, Rubio and other incoming Members have turned to K Street insiders to help pay off their campaign debts,” Roll Call reports.

IOWA: The Des Moines Register publishes a “list of Iowans who can make or break a GOP presidential candidate;” fifty operatives, activists, officials, issue advocates and members of the media whom presidential prospects will likely call on as they prepare for the Iowa caucuses.

NEW HAMPSHIRE: “Former U.S. Senate candidate Ovide Lamontagne says his new Granite Oath PAC will eventually endorse a candidate for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination race, but he said he and his PAC are uncommitted at this point,” although Lamontagne backed Mitt Romney in the 2008 presidential primary campaign, the Manchester Union-Leader says.

NEW JERSEY: Weeds: Gov. Chris “Christie backed off on several of his key objections to [a medical marijuana] law -- backed by Trenton Dems and signed by his predecessor, Jon Corzine -- including one that allows terminally ill patients easier access to pot.”

SOUTH CAROLINA: The State’s political blog The Buzz says that some top South Carolina Republicans weighed in on presidential candidates last week. “Gov.-elect Nikki Haley said she plans to endorse a Republican candidate in South Carolina’s pivotal first-in-the-South primary. Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin endorsed Haley. Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney gave Haley’s campaign $60,000. So The Buzz eagerly will be awaiting word on which Haley backs… U.S. Sen. Jim DeMint spoke highly of Indiana U.S. Rep. Mike Pence and said he’d be a good presidential candidate.”

“South Carolina Tea Party groups are trying to build a coordinated, statewide network of activists,” The State reports. “About 30 groups – or roughly half of the state’s self-titled liberty movement – met in Columbia on Saturday to discuss a formal affiliation with the national Tea Party Patriots organization. Local groups would be free to set their own agendas but would have access to the national group’s research, advice and resources – such as its weekly Monday conference calls.”

Sarah Palin’s book-signing stop in South Carolina on Friday sounded a lot like her other stops so far, according to the Charleston Post and Courier’s description. “As country music played over the loudspeaker, Palin greeted most everyone with a ‘Hi there! What's your name?’ Interactions were limited. The guests weren't allowed to take pictures and Palin would only sign her name, not a personal message. Reporters were able to photograph Palin but could not ask any questions.”

Lindsey Graham, who is not loved by the right wing, said in a floor speech on Sunday: "The House had a dramatic election. We picked up seats in the Senate. Some of us thought, maybe we could pick up two or three more, but we made some pretty poor choices when it came to candidates."

ALASKA: The Alaska Dispatch suggests several motivations that may be driving Republican Senate nominee Joe Miller’s legal challenge to Sen. Lisa Murkowski’s write-in victory. “Political analysts agree the various motives -- principle, image, weakening Murkowski, money -- are plausible, but don't think they're all wise undertakings. The balancing act between hurting your enemy and hurting yourself is one they're not convinced will work to Miller's advantage.”

CALIFORNIA: CA-11: “California Republican David Harmer has officially conceded defeat to Rep. Jerry McNerney (D-Calif.) more than a month after Election Day,” The Hill writes. “McNerney was declared the winner by the AP over a week ago and had already pronounced himself the victor, but it wasn't until late Friday that Harmer actually phoned the Democrat to concede.”

MINNESOTA: “The first stage of Minnesota’s gubernatorial recount ended Friday as Hennepin County finished hand tallying roughly 470,000 ballots cast on Election Day and joined the state’s other 86 counties in taking a breather before the State Canvassing Board meets this week,” Minnesota Daily reports. “Republican Tom Emmer still trails DFL opponent Mark Dayton by 8,675 votes… The board is scheduled to finish reviewing challenged ballots Friday and is set to declare the election Dec. 14.”

NEW YORK: NY-1: In the lone House race not yet called, Newsday writes, “[E]lections officials opened another batch of previously contested paper ballots Friday in the close race between Democratic U.S. Rep. Tim Bishop and his Republican challenger, Randy Altschuler. After the most recent count was completed at midday, Bishop held a 271-vote edge, his spokesman said, while the Altschuler campaign said the Bishop lead was 264. However, more than 1,400 paper ballots remain to be counted.”

From NBC's Alexandra Moe

As was reported earlier this week by First Read, money was a key focus at the RNC chair candidate forum sponsored by Freedom Works and the Republican National Conservative Caucus. Here is a short recap of what was said by the forum's participants: former Missouri GOP chairwoman Ann Wagner; former RNC political director Gentry Collins; former RNC chairman Mike Duncan; and former Michigan GOP chair Saul Anuzis.

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

A look at the Week Ahead in politics. There’s a lot on Congress’ plate in the lame-duck session -- tax cuts, START, Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell, the DREAM Act… will any of it get passed?

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

From NBC's Athena Jones
Another day, another White House conference call pushing one of their agenda items.

For the second time in two days, White House officials took to the telephone this morning urging Congress to pass the Dream Act. Secretary of Commerce Gary Locke, Cecilia Munoz, Director of Intergovernmental Affairs at the White House, President of Regent University Dr. Carlos Campo, UCLA Chancellor Dr. Gene Block, and the President of Miami-Dade College Dr. Eduardo Padron hosted a call Friday in which they argued that passing the bill was important to America's ability to compete in today's global economy.

Locke called the legislation -- which would allow young people who were not responsible for immigrating illegally to this country and who want to go to college or join the military to adjust their immigration status and provide a path to citizenship without fear of deportation -- "critical" to the country's future and said that each year promising high school students are prevented from attending doing so due to their illegal status.

"These are kids that can be our future scientists, our doctors, our military leaders and our educators," Locke said. "Some of them are our future entrepreneurs who will build the next Google or Intel that will generate hundreds of thousands of good paying jobs for our country."

Locke said that over the past 15 years, 25% of venture capital backed companies that eventually went public were started by immigrants.

The Dream Act faces difficult odds in the few weeks before Congress breaks for the holidays, as Democrats and Republicans try to strike deals on pressing issues from funding the government, to ratifying the New START arms treaty with Russia to extending the Bush tax cuts.

"I think some of this discussion about the Dream Act has been so short-sighted and we're failing to see the long-term benefits to our economy," Padron said.

The officials said the Dream Act would would not be a 'giveaway' by any means due to the lengthy process and vigorous background check the legislation would require and to its economic benefits. Munoz said the White House would remain "absolutely engaged" in efforts to get the bill passed and cited a Congressional Budget Office study saying the legislation would generate $2.3 billion of revenue over 10 years and reduce the deficit over the same period.

Thursday, DHS Sec. Janet Napolitano argued passage of the bill would strengthen the U.S. economy and its military and allow the Department of Homeland Security to focus its enforcement resources on removing dangerous criminal aliens from the country.

From NBC's Athena Jones
WASHINGTON, DC, Dec. 3 -- With news that the nation's jobless rate reached the highest level since April, the White House tried to put a positive spin on a very bad number and used it to argue for action on extending tax cuts for the middle class and unemployment insurance to millions.

The unemployment rate climbed to 9.8% in November, with the economy adding a lower-than-expected 39,000 jobs. November marked the 19th straight month with an unemployment rate above 9%. Job cuts hit sectors from retailers and factories to construction companies and financial firms.

"You never want to make too much of any one month," Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers Austan Goolsbee told MSNBC. "I think collectively we've seen some progress in the economy, but it's got to be way more."

Goolsbee went on to say that November marked the 11th straight month of private sector job growth -- the sector added 50,000 jobs during the month -- with 1.2 million private sector jobs added this year.

Still CNBC's Becky Quick said the number was a "punch in the gut" for Wall Street, which saw a 100 point reversal in Dow futures soon after the news. Quick said the number would likely to hurt consumer confidence as shoppers head into the holidays.

Today's news comes as efforts to extend aid to millions of out of work Americans have stalled on Capitol Hill and as Democrats and Republicans work to reach a compromise to extending the so-called Bush tax cuts. The November figures could strengthen the arguments being made by both sides.

When it comes to the Bush tax cuts, Democrats say the government cannot afford to borrow $700 billion over the next decade to pay for tax cuts for families that earn more than $250,000 a year, while Republicans say the slow pace of the economic recovery proves that now not the time to raise taxes on anyone. Goolsbee told MSNBC the administration's focused remained on the middle class and repeated the administration's argument that borrowing money to extend tax relief for the rich was not a good idea.

"I think you cannot help but look at these numbers and say it's absolutely imperative that we extend the middle class tax cuts, not just the Bush tax cuts, but also the Obama cuts," Goolsbee said, making a reference to provisions like the Recovery Act's Making Work Pay tax credit. "On the economic policy front, what is critically important right now is for the 98% of people that are looking at having their taxes go up that we extend those tax cuts."

On the matter of unemployment benefits, Democrats and the White House, which hosted on a conference call on the issue yesterday, argue a failure to extend the aid would put 600,000 jobs at stake and would slow economic recovery.

DEC 3 - Thank you for everything you do, President Obama told nearly 4,000 troops assembled at Bagram Air Base during a surprise visit to Afghanistan on Friday.

The president left under cover of night on Thursday and greeted Gens. David Petraeus and Karl Eikenberry upon arriving to deliver a holiday message of thanks and something of pep talk to troops on the base.

After speaking with Afghan President Hamid Karzai for 15 minutes, the president met with the Petraeus and Eikenberry, National Security Advisor Tom Donilon and Doug Lute, the special assistant to the president for Afghanistan and Pakistan, according to the small pool of reporters traveling with him. A planned meeting with Karzai had to be canceled, because weather conditions prevented a presidential helicopter ride to Kabul. The pair last met for about an hour in Lisbon in November.

The war in Afghanistan, which has entered its tenth year, has become increasingly unpopular here at home and in Europe. The president's trip comes just days after NATO allies agreed at the meeting in Portugal to an eventual exit strategy from the country that would have Afghan forces taking the lead for their own security across the country by 2014.

The president last visited Afghanistan in March. Today he spent 30 minutes at Bagram hospital meeting with patients, nurses, doctors and staff and awarding five Purple Hearts and met with the surviving members of a platoon that lost six troops this week, before delivering a roughly 20-minute speech to the troops. Obama apologized for keeping the service members "up late" and coming on such short notice, but said he wanted to make sure he could spend a little time this holiday season with troops, calling them the finest fighting force the world has ever known.

"Thanks to your service we are making important progress," said the president, clad in an Air Force One bomber jacket. "You are protecting your country. You're achieving your objectives. You will succeed in your mission."

He said he knew that troops in Afghanistan faced a "tough fight." US troops are set to begin drawing down in July of next year, but how many depart the country will depend on conditions on the ground. The White House is set to conduct a comprehensive review of its strategy in Afghanistan later this month, but no major changes are expected and the president today insisted that progress was being made.

"We said we were going to break the Taliban's momentum, and that's what you're doing." Obama said. "You're going on the offense, tired of playing defense, targeting their leaders, pushing them out of their strongholds. Today we can be proud that there are fewer areas under Taliban control and more Afghans have a chance to build a more hopeful future."

It may be the holiday season, but it's definitely not the most wonderful time of the year for congressional Democrats as they try to pass some of their big-ticket agenda items (repealing DADT, ratifying new START, jobless benefits) before this session ends. With so much gridlock in Washington, what, if anything, can they actually accomplish? Thanks to Feisty Redhead Roselle, IL for the topic.

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From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell and Carrie Dann
Sen. Scott Brown, a Republican from Massachusetts, just announced in a statement that he will support repeal of the military's Don't Ask, Don't Tell policy.

Brown says that he "accept[s] the findings of the report" issued by the Pentagon, which found that a majority of servicemembers believe that repeal would have a minimal effect on their units' abilities to serve.

“I pledged to keep an open mind about the present policy on Don’t Ask Don’t Tell. Having reviewed the Pentagon report, having spoken to active and retired military service members, and having discussed the matter privately with Defense Secretary Gates and others, I accept the findings of the report and support repeal based on the Secretary’s recommendations that repeal will be implemented only when the battle effectiveness of the forces is assured and proper preparations have been completed.”

Brown, who serves on the Senate Armed Services Committee, noted in today's hearing on repeal that he hopes that the service chiefs of each military branch, who have expressed some reservations about repeal, are consulted before the Pentagon officially signs off on any legislation passed by Congress that affects the rule.

He also said earlier today that a repeal by the courts rather than by legislative action would be "exceedingly disruptive" to the force, an argument made by the Secretary of Defense and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff yesterday.

From NBC's Mark Murray
President Obama's deficit-reduction commission just adjourned and was unable to get the 14 votes (out of 18) necessary to force Congress to vote on its proposal.

But with more than a majority backing the proposal, commission members said they were optimistic Congress could still tackle deficit reduction along the lines the proposal recommended. "We should not let this proposal fall by the wayside," said GOP Sen. Mike Crapo, who supported it. "We have shown that we can get a supermajority to pass this kind of legislation."

Said co-chair Alan Simpson, a former GOP senator: "I will walk home proudly, with my head held high."

A bad jobs report: Economy adds just 39,000 jobs in November and unemployment rate jumps to 9.8%... Also a bad 24 hours for political pragmatism… The deficit doesn’t hold with the deficit commission, as it won’t get the supermajority today to move the proposal to Congress…. It’s a victory for interest-group politics… Democrats don’t play political hardball as well as Republicans do… Second day of DADT testimony on Capitol Hill… And Sens. Mitch McConnell and John Kerry to appear on “Meet the Press.”

From NBC's Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** A bad jobs report: Before we get to the political news of the day, we have to start with what is a stomach punch to folks on Wall Street and the West Wing -- and that's the November job numbers. Expectations were running high that this could be the best report in not just months, but a few years. Um, oops. Today’s numbers aren’t good at all. Per the AP, a total of just 39,000 jobs (and 50,000 private-sector ones) were created last month -- which was FAR below the expectations of approximately 150,000 jobs (thanks to ADP's numbers). In addition, the unemployment rate jumped from 9.6% to 9.8%. This news will probably only strengthen the GOP's hand in the tax fight. Now to Washington...

*** A bad 24 hours for political pragmatism: Simply put, it’s been a bad 24 hours for political pragmatism -- from the legislative temper tantrums on Capitol Hill, to the inability of the deficit commission to get a supermajority to agree on shared sacrifice. Why is Congress wasting time voting on tax-cut bills that can't pass now when 1) they could have done this months ago if they really wanted to make a political point before an ACTUAL election, or 2) they could actually propose a compromise that might actually pass? After all, the legislative clock is ticking. And it’s just not the Democrats voting on tax-cut legislation unlikely to pass that's part of this temper-tantrum disease going around Washington. Yesterday, we also saw a single anonymous GOP senator force votes on Saturday; GOP Sen. Jim DeMint threaten to filibuster new START; and Harry Reid walk into Mitch McConnell’s office to negotiate -- when McConnell had already left for the evening. All in all, it’s one of those times when Washington looks absurd and out of touch with the rest of the country.

*** The center doesn’t hold: As we predicted, the center was unlikely to ever hold with President Obama’s deficit-reduction commission. Just when it looked like the final proposal, which will be voted on today, was picking up greater-than-expected support, folks from both the left and the right jumped ship yesterday -- thanks to interest-group pressure from the ideological bases. Right now, there are 10 members who are yes votes (co-chairs Erskine Bowles and Alan Simpson; GOP Sens. Tom Coburn, Mike Crapo, and Judd Gregg; Dem Sens. Kent Conrad and Dick Durbin; former Clinton OMB Director Alice Rivlin; businesswoman Ann Fudge; and Honeywell CEO David Cote). There are six no votes (GOP Reps. Dave Camp, Jeb Hensarling, and Paul Ryan; Dem Rep. Jan Schakowsky; Dem Sen. Max Baucus; and former SEIU head Andy Stern). And there are two undeclared votes (Dem Reps. Xavier Becerra and John Spratt). So that’s a majority, but not the supermajority -- 14 out of 18 commission members -- needed to move the proposal to Congress.

*** A victory for interest-group politics: If you can’t get 14 out of 18 from this group -- consisting of some of Washington’s most practical politicians -- then it’s unlikely you’ll see major deficit reduction from the next Congress, unless there’s a clear emergency or crisis. Pure and simple, this is a victory for interest-group politics. Grover Norquist (who’s opposed any tax increases) and Richard Trumka (who’s opposed to any touching of Social Security) won. But as Politics Daily’s Jill Lawrence asks, do Democrats really want to pull out of the deficit-reduction game at a time when they still control the White House and Senate? Similarly, Republicans are unlikely to ever get a better deal from a Democratic president than the current occupant of the White House. That said, it will be interesting to see if the proposal getting 10 or 11 votes could serve as a mandate for the White House and the next Congress to tackle deficit reduction. But we’re not holding our breath.

*** Two other points on the commission: Here are two other points on the deficit commission. One, the U.S. senators have been more likely to support the proposal. With the exception of Baucus (whose opposition apparently is less about ideology and about something else; simply, it's Baucus being Baucus), all the senators on the panel (Coburn, Conrad, Crapo, Gregg, and Durbin) are yes votes. But the House members (Camp, Hensarling, Ryan, Schakowsky) are opposed, with two undecideds (Becerra and Spratt). Second, the commission’s co-chairs get plenty of credit for creating an honest conversation about reducing the deficit. "I don't know if we're going to get two votes or five votes or 10 votes or 14 votes,” Bowles said earlier this week. “But one thing is certain: The problem is real. The solutions are painful. And there are no easy choices."

*** Democrats don’t play political hardball as well as Republicans do: Want another example of how Republicans play political hardball better than Democrats do? Just look what happened after yesterday’s House vote extending only middle-class tax cuts. We noticed only a few Democratic press releases accusing Republicans of voting against tax cuts for 98% of Americans (and thus accusing them of raising these folks’ taxes). If the shoe had been on the other foot, however, Republicans would have mercilessly pounded Democrats for weeks -- if not months. The recent Charlie Rangel and John Ensign stories are instructive here, too. Republicans were relentless that the news of Rangel’s wrongdoings never got dropped. On the other hand, Democrats essentially gave up on Ensign’s woes. And lo and behold, it now looks like Ensign is no longer a Justice Department target. And Rangel's been censured on the House floor. Republicans just play the political message game better than Democrats do.

*** DADT on the Hill, Day 2: At 9:00 am ET, the Senate Armed Services Committee will hear a second day of testimony regarding the Pentagon’s report on gays serving in the military. Testifying will be Marine Gen. James E. Cartwright, vice chair of the Joint Chiefs; Gen. George W. Casey Jr., the Army’s chief of staff; Admiral Gary Roughead, chief of naval operations; Marine Commandant James F. Amos; Gen. Norton A. Schwartz, chief of staff of the Air Force; and Admiral Robert J. Papp, commandant of the Coast Guard.

*** If it’s Sunday… : Here’s the “Meet the Press” lineup for Sunday: GOP Senate leader Mitch McConnell, Dem Sen. John Kerry, and a roundtable consisting of the New York Times’ Tom Friedman, the BBC’s Katty Kay, the Times’ David Brooks, and GOP strategist Mike Murphy.

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“White House negotiators and congressional Republicans have the outlines of a deal to extend the Bush-era tax cuts and federal unemployment benefits, which would end a partisan stalemate on Capitol Hill,” The Hill writes. “Under the prospective deal, all the Bush tax cuts would be extended for two years and unemployment benefits would be extended for one, according to congressional sources. Also under consideration is an extension of the Make Work Pay and college-tuition tax credits that were part of the 2009 economic stimulus package.”

“House Democrats yesterday approved an extension to the Bush tax cuts for families earning less than $250,000, a measure almost certain to be rejected in the Senate. But negotiators worked behind the scenes on an eventual compromise that could extend the cuts to top earners as a way to win Republican support,” the Boston Globe adds. “A deal on the income tax cuts, which expire this month, could emerge in the next week from the small group of negotiators.”

The New York Post: “In a final bit of political theater before relinquishing power, House Democrats yesterday passed a bill to extend the Bush tax cuts for the middle class while letting those for high earners expire -- a measure that succeeded only in infuriating Republicans.”

Speaker-to-be John Boehner called the maneuver “chicken crap,” but remember back in September when he said he would vote for a middle-class tax cut? Business Week: “Boehner would support extending tax cuts for those making less than $250,000 a year ‘if that’s what we can get done, but I think that’s bad policy,’ he said yesterday on CBS’s ‘Face the Nation’ program. ‘If the only option I have is to vote for some of those tax reductions, I’ll vote for it. I’m going to do everything I can to fight to make sure that we extend the current tax rates for all Americans.’”

Roll Call: “Senate Democrats braced for a pair of showdown votes on tax cuts scheduled for Saturday after Republicans backed away from a deal for a more orderly treatment of the tax cut issue late Thursday night. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid plans to charge ahead against likely filibusters on two Democratic proposals, one that would extend the soon-to-expire tax cuts for middle-class taxpayers and another that would extend the cuts for those making up to $1 million.”

“House ethics investigators have begun looking into why the House Financial Services Committee, led by Representative Barney Frank, a Newton Democrat, did not fully comply with its promise to turn over all documents pertinent to an investigation of subcommittee chairwoman Maxine Waters, according to congressional staff and other sources close to the inquiry,” the Boston Globe writes.

“House Democratic leaders are considering a vote on the DREAM Act on Wednesday, a senior House Democratic aide said Thursday,” Roll Call writes.

“Republican Gov.-elect Nikki Haley said President Barack Obama agreed Thursday to consider letting South Carolina opt out of the federal health care overhaul if the state comes up with its own solutions to meet some of the important conditions of the national legislation,” the AP writes.

Mike Bloomberg, the billionaire New York mayor, says Obama’s not business-friendly enough and should get some new advisers: He tells GQ, per the New York Daily News: "One of the things I've urged the president to do is to get some business people in his close, tight circle… One of the president's jobs is to promote American business around the world, sell our products, get people from around the world to come and invest here. That's a big part of the job. That's our tax base. That's how Americans earn a living, and I don't think he has enough [business] advisers.”

But isn’t business doing just fine? As was reported last week, business profits are at an all-time high; Wall Street is humming; and the Dow is well above 11,000.

IOWA: “Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin was on pace to sign more than 1,000 copies of her new book today during an event to promote the new release at a northwest Iowa Walmart,” the Des Moines Register writes. “Press were escorted into the signing room in small groups. In one such group, CNN news reporter Jim Acosta broke ranks and asked Palin a question, aides said. Palin reportedly stood up and addressed Acosta, who was asked to leave.”

“If Sarah Palin runs for president, she might trace the origins of an Iowa caucus campaign to a brief conversation she had in Spirit Lake Thursday,” the Register adds, noting that the president of a county Republican women’s group invited Palin to speak at the group’s summer event.