Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who won the Iowa caucuses in 2008, warned Republicans in an interview on The View against underestimating President Obama in 2012, and says the party gave Obama a "gift" by taking back the House.

He said, of course, he believes he could you beat President Obama?

"I wouldn't run if I didn't think I could," he said, adding this: "I think it's going to be harder to beat Barack Obama than a lot of Republicans are thinking, because he is the president. He's going to have a $1 billion starting out in his war chest. There's an extraordinary advantage of an incumbent. And I'll tell you something else people don't think about -- divided government is good for the executive branch. The gift that the Republicans gave to him was that they're going to control at least the House of Representatives and they don't have, and he doesn't have a filibuster-proof Senate. What that means is that when the legislative branches fight, the executive always wins."

On whether he'll run, he said, "It's a decision I'll make later in the year. ... If people are sick of me, I probably won't do it." He again lamented the necessity of being a good fundraiser and having a solid field operation, and said he wouldn't get in unless he knew he would be in a very strong financial position.

"I'm not jumping into the pool, if it doesn't have water in it," he said.

Sarah Palin is vowing -- in a FOX interview that will air later today -- to "clean up" journalism, and says she will not speak to CBS's Katie Couric again, calling her "biased" and won't "waste my time."

Couric conducted the interview in 2008 in which Palin tried to defend her foreign policy credentials. Of Russian President Vladimir Putin, she said, "It's very important, when you consider even national security issues with Russia, as Putin rears his head and comes into the airspace of the United States of America, where do they go? It's Alaska. It's just right over the border."

Palin said of journalism:

"I want to help clean up the state that is so sorry today of journalism. And I have a communications degree. I studied journalism, who, what, where, when, and why of reporting. I will speak to reporters who still understand that cornerstone of our democracy, that expectation that the public has for truth to be reported. And then we get to decide our own opinion based on the facts reported to us."

Palin got a journalism degree from the University of Idaho in 1987, after which she briefly was a sportscaster in Alaska:

(Hat tip: Political Wire) And since Palin is going to be in the spotlight this week with her book out, here's more on Palin.

Three questions to determine if Palin is serious about being a successful presidential candidate: 1) Does she broaden her appeal… 2) Does she become more disciplined?... 3) Does she expand her policy portfolio?... New Q-poll shows Palin performing the worst among other GOPers in a head-to-head against Obama… The president's trip to Portugal was more successful than his trip to Asia… START has become the next big Washington battle… Expect to see more White House staff movement sooner rather than later… And an update on the uncalled House races.

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

From NBC's Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** Three questions for Palin: As Sarah Palin comes out with a new book this week, as she goes on a book tour (hitting some battleground states), and as she hints that she might run for president in a New York Times magazine profile, the political world finds itself in the midst of another round of Palin-palooza. Will she run for president? If not, what is she up to? While we're still not sure she actually runs (if she found the scrutiny of remaining Alaska governor too much, then she might not enjoy running for president or even being president), we’ve come up with three questions to determine if she’s truly serious about being a successful presidential candidate. After all, almost anyone can run for president (see: Mike Gravel, Alan Keyes, Fred Thompson, even Rudy Giuliani). But being a successful candidate -- coping with the campaign’s highs and lows, outlasting your opponents, and still appealing to a sizable portion of the country -- is another matter.

*** Does she broaden her appeal? First, does she broaden her appeal beyond her conservative/Tea Party base? Most successful presidential candidates --- at least at this point in the cycle -- are viewed more as uniters than dividers. Yet per a NBC/WSJ poll conducted earlier this fall, Palin is loved by conservatives (53%-19% fav/unfav) and Republicans (55%-17%), but not by Democrats (9%-73%), moderates (14%-62%), or independents (25%-55%). And in our most recent NBC/WSJ poll, which was released after the midterms, being endorsed by Palin was one of the more negative candidate qualities; in fact, it was worse than being endorsed by a labor union, than supporting allowing workers to invest their Social Security contributions in the stock market, and than supporting the economic stimulus.

*** Does she become more disciplined? Second, does she begin to be more disciplined? Since resigning her governorship last year, Palin has not only picked fights with the Obama White House and congressional Democrats -- but also with David Letterman, Katie Couric, Politico, the Wall Street Journal, and even some establishment Beltway Republicans. While that kind of combat can work for a political pundit or entertainer (like Rush Limbaugh), it’s harder for an actual presidential candidate, who will be a target of slings and arrows from Democrats and the White House, from fellow GOP presidential candidates, and from the news media. “She gives as good as she gets,” Mary Matalin told Robert Draper in his New York Times magazine piece on Palin. “But I don’t know her well enough to know if she’s developed the thick skin you need to be endlessly resilient, the way Reagan could take things for decades and let them roll off his back.”

*** And does she expand her policy portfolio? Third, do we see Palin expand her policy portfolio beyond her wheelhouse -- energy, special needs, and neoconservative foreign policy? Recently, Palin weighed in on the Federal Reserve’s action to pump more money into the economy (however, she mistakenly said that prices have risen over the last year or so when, in fact, inflation has been very low). There are two perceptions of Palin: One hits at what Lisa Murkowski said last week. ("You know, she was my governor for two years, for just about two years there, and I don't think that she enjoyed governing," Murkowski told CBS. "I don't think she liked to get down into the policy."). And the other is what Draper said of her. (“Less well known was the Palin who … was seen more than once passed out on her hotel bed half-buried in briefing books and index cards…”). But will somebody explain how she is helping herself to be taken more seriously when she’s using her new book to talk about things like “American Idol”?

*** More numbers on Palin: Meanwhile, a brand-new Quinnipiac poll shows Palin leading a hypothetical GOP primary field at 19% -- followed by Mitt Romney at 18%, Mike Huckabee at 17%, Newt Gingrich at 15%, and Tim Pawlenty at 6%. But in the GOP field, Palin's negatives are the highest (36%-51% overall fav/unfav and 33%-54% among indies), while Huckabee (41%-25%) and Romney (38%-26%) are positive, and Gingrich’s is negative (30%-43%); Obama is 48%-48%. And Palin also performs the worst in a head-to-head against Obama: Romney narrowly edges the president, 45%-44%; Obama leads Huckabee, 46%-44%; Obama leads the largely unknown Daniels 45%-36%; and Obama gets closest to 50% against Palin, whom he leads 48%-40%.

*** A better trip for Obama: Turning from Palin to American foreign policy, the NATO summit in Portugal was a very productive trip for President Obama. NATO endorsing major troop reductions in Afghanistan by Dec. 31, 2014 is a big deal. Yes, it's punting, but it's also an international coalition supporting the U.S.’s end game. So there's no second guessing outside the U.S. on this issue. The only second guessing will come from anti-war Democrats inside the U.S. And frankly, it's legitimate second guessing, but could the U.S. realistically pull out any sooner? The international community’s answer: no.

*** If you START me up, I’ll never stop: But Afghanistan was just one storyline in Lisbon; the other was the new START treaty. This is turning into a key political battle for Team Obama, and they know it. They got every European leader imaginable to go public this weekend supporting the treaty. Indeed, there's a real fear in the White House that if Sen. Jon Kyl and the GOP roll them on this, it will weaken the president on the world's stage. Right now, the White House is struggling to agree on a strategy to get this done. At a press conference over the weekend, Obama hit the Republicans for playing politics on foreign policy and national security. “This is an issue that traditionally has received strong bipartisan support,” he said. “There’s no other reason not to do it than the fact that Washington has become a very partisan place.” But he dodged the question of whether Kyl is playing politics. “I’ve spoken to Sen. Kyl directly,” he said. “Sen. Kyl has never said to me that he does not want to see START ratified.”

*** Sooner rather than later: Here’s a tip: Expect to see some more White House staff movement sooner rather than later. Nobody likes working in limbo, and this may speed up Pete Rouse and Valerie Jarrett, the two people other than the president himself who may know more about the re-arranging of the staff.

*** The uncalled races: Rep. Tim Bishop (D-NY-1) has come back to overtake Republican Randy Altschuler with counting of absentee and provisional ballots. That means of the five House races still uncalled, Republicans lead in two. They are currently +61 in the House and could get to about +63 -- if current numbers hold. The uncalled races: CA-11, CA-20, NY-1, NY-25, and TX-27. In CA-11 and CA-20, the Democrats appear to be on track to win narrowly. In NY-25, Republican Ann Marie Buerkle expanded her lead over incumbent Democrat Dan Maffei. And in TX-27, Blake Farenthold (R) continues to lead, as a recount requested by incumbent Solomon Ortiz nears completion.

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The Washington Post: "Obama comes home from the NATO summit facing one of the most significant showdowns of his presidency: trying to win ratification of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) before the Senate adjourns in December. Jon Kyl (Ariz), the second-ranking Republican senator, said last week he did not think there was time to bring it up during the current lame-duck session. But Obama has forced the issue, reflecting Democrats' belief that if the treaty is pushed into next year, it could become a political issue for an emboldened Republican Party. The pact currently needs nine Republican votes to pass the full Senate but will need 14 next year."

The AP: "President Obama took aim yesterday at Republican senators standing in the way of a nuclear arms reduction pact with Russia, saying they were abandoning Ronald Reagan’s lesson of nuclear diplomacy: 'Trust but verify.’”

The New York Times says that "while that Asia trip had mixed results, forcing Mr. Obama to leave without the South Korean trade deal he had expected, the consensus with Europeans and Russians at the NATO summit in Lisbon about how to handle Afghanistan and missile defense gave him a more successful sheen — even if ultimate success, particularly in Afghanistan, remains problematic."

Warren Buffett says the Bush tax cuts should expire.

Caught between complaints that airport screening has become too intrusive and threats of new terror attacks on aviation, Obama administration officials say they are sensitive to criticisms that security measures go too far, but they are insisting that the measures now in place are justified by the risks," the New York Times says. "With the Thanksgiving travel crush imminent, the chief of the Transportation Security Administration, John S. Pistole, said in a statement that his agency would try to make screening methods 'as minimally invasive as possible.' But he gave no indication that the agency would reverse its move to full-body scanners, now deployed in 70 of 450 airports in the United States, and physical pat-downs for passengers who object to the scans." http://nyti.ms/9OcAVl

"Asked if she would be willing to submit to an airport frisk, [Secretary of State] Clinton laughed and admitted, 'Not if I could avoid it. No, I mean who would?'"

The New York Post looks at the turkeys set to be pardoned by President Obama ahead of Thanksgiving.

Last year, we at First Read looked at the history of turkey pardons. President Truman is often incorrectly cited as the first to pardon a turkey. It appears President Kennedy was the first president to pardon a Thanksgiving turkey in 1963. Abraham Lincoln also spared a turkey, but it was one for Christmas. And here's video of last year's pardon.

"Defense Secretary Robert Gates is instructing his staff to accelerate by one day the public release of a yearlong study into the implications of repealing the ban on openly gay people serving in the military," The Hill reports. "That study, initially due Dec. 1, will now be ready for release on Nov. 30 to allow the congressional defense committees to hold hearings on the report as soon as possible."

Politico writes, "Former Bush administration official Maria Cino has created a 527 committee for an increasingly likely bid to become the RNC chairman, POLITICO has learned. Cino filed papers to create “Maria for Chairman” Friday with the FEC, a move that will let her raise and spend money in a campaign to take over the national party.

ALASKA: “Even as [Sen. Jim] DeMint says he would welcome fellow Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski back to the Senate, the South Carolinian is still urging conservative activists around the country to donate money to replace the incumbent with Tea Party favorite Joe Miller through a legal appeal,” The State reports. DeMint, who raised $5.6 million for ultraconservative GOP candidates this year, attached a personal appeal letter to a “CONTRIBUTE” banner and a photo of Miller at the top of www.senateconservatives.com, the Web site of his Senate Conservatives Fund.”

Rep. Tim Bishop (D-NY-1) has come back to overtake Republican Randy Altschuler with counting of absentee and provisional ballots. That means of the five races still uncalled, Republicans lead in two. They are currently +61 in the House and could get to about +63 if current numbers hold. The uncalled races: CA-11, CA-20, NY-1, NY-25, TX-27.

CA-11: “As of 6:20 p.m. Friday in the most recent report issued by her office, California Secretary of State Debra Bowen reported that [Democratic Rep. Jerry] McNerney continues to lead [Republican challenger David] Harmer by less than 1%, a percentage difference that has remained the same for more than a week,” Tri Valley Views reports.

CA-20: “It now appears likely that Fresno Democrat Jim Costa will win a fourth term in Congress and narrowly escape the Republican tidal wave that nearly ended his three-decade political career,” the Fresno Bee writes. “Yet Costa could have an even harder time holding on to his 20th Congressional District seat in 2012.”

NY-1: “Democratic Rep. Tim Bishop has overtaken Republican Randy Altschuler in the prolonged race for a New York House seat on Long Island that may stretch on for weeks to come,” Politico writes. “With the counting of absentee and provisional ballots complete in six localities, Bishop leads Altschuler by 15 votes. Election officials still must tally 5,004 ballots in Brookhaven – a process that is expected to be completed by Wednesday at the soonest.”

NY-25: “Republican Ann Marie Buerkle holds a 567-vote lead over U.S. Rep. Dan Maffei in the 25th Congressional District race after Wayne County election officials released their unofficial tally of absentee votes today.”

TX-17: “A ballot recount in South Texas demanded by U.S. Rep. Solomon Ortiz is nearly complete, but he's still trailing Republican challenger Blake Farenthold,” the AP reports. “Only about 15,000 absentee and early ballots have yet to be re-tabulated in Cameron County, which includes Brownsville, in the 27th Congressional District race.”

MAINE: "He has cursed at reporters and threatened to punch one. He once promised to tell the president of the United States to 'go to hell,'" the Boston Globe writes on its front page, profiling Maine's incoming Gov. Paul LePage. More: "LePage, with his narrow victory, is leading a Republican renaissance in Maine, one of just two states that will flip from complete Democratic control of state government to complete GOP control in January. He is a polarizing figure, and more complex than his public image might suggest… Republicans in Maine have not controlled the House, Senate, and the governor’s office at the same time since the 1960s."

NEVADA: Politico’s post-mortem of the Nevada Senate race includes criticism of Sharron Angle’s political team, including longtime adviser Terry Campbell. “‘In the 20 years that I’ve been involved politically, I’ve never had the misfortune of working with such sheer, utter incompetence. Too much is at stake in these political campaigns — people like Campbell don’t need to be anywhere near them,’ said Chris LaCivita, who served as political director for the National Republican Senatorial Committee this fall and worked directly with the Angle campaign. ‘If they were filming a sequel to the movie “Dumb and Dumber,” Terry Campbell would have a feature role.’”

Quinnipiac is out with a 2012 poll, and it finds by a 64%-27% margin, Democrats don't want a challenge to President Obama. The president, the poll finds, has deficiencies among men, whites, independents, and those over age 35. But he retains a committed base.

In match-ups with potential 2012 Republicans, the numbers are close. Mitt Romney narrowly edges Obama 45%-44%; Obama narrowly leads Mike Huckabee 46%-44%; Obama leads Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, largely an unknown, 45%-36%; and Obama gets closest to 50% against Sarah Palin, whom he leads 48%-40%. Yet Palin leads in a hypothetical GOP primary with 19%, followed by Romney with 18%, Huckabee 17%, Gingrich 15%, Pawlenty 6%. Palin's negatives are the highest of all Republicans -- 36%-51%. Among independents, it's 33%-54%. Obama's is 48%-48%. Huckabee (41%-25%) and Romney (38%-26%) are positive, but Gingrich’s is negative (30%-43%).

"At this point, former Alaska Gov. Palin runs the worst against President Obama. Daniels is essentially a generic Republican because of his anonymity to most voters. Obama only gets 45 percent against him while he gets 48 percent against Ms. Palin," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the poll. "She is very unpopular among independents and although she recently said she thought she could defeat Obama, the data does not now necessarily support that assertion."

Former First Lady Barbara Bush told CNN's Larry King about her impressions of Sarah Palin: "I sat next to her once. Thought she was beautiful. And I think she's very happy in Alaska, and I hope she'll stay there."

“Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee said in Iowa Sunday he is considering a 2012 presidential campaign, but stopped short of giving a time frame for a decision as other prospective candidates have,” the Des Moines Register reports.

From NBC's Ali Weinberg
Senator-elect Mike Lee, an attorney, staged a successful upset against three-term incumbent Bob Bennett Mike Lee by tapping into Tea Party anger over the perceived excesses of the current members of government.

But what might surprise some of his supporters is that the staunch conservative is a family friend of one of the chief symbols of the Old Guard: Democratic Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, who was a member of Lee's Church of Latter-Day Saints congregation when he lived in Northern Virginia as his father served as the assistant attorney general under President Ford.

"The Reids were the first real Democrats that I spent a lot of time with," Lee told NBC News, "and I discovered fairly quickly that we didn't agree on almost anything. Any time I tried to defend the actions of the Reagan administration, they'd all jump all over me, so sometimes I like to say I cut my political teeth in the Reid household."

Lee added that Reid's son Josh has been a close friend of his since the sixth grade.

Just two months before Lee becomes a colleague of his family friend and sparring partner, he gave one of his first speeches in Washington D.C., in front of members of the Federalist society, a group for conservative and libertarian-minded lawyers.

Sticking to a Constitution-heavy pitch that so resonated to the Tea Party, Lee at times brandished a pocket version of the document as he spoke.

"I will not vote for a single piece of legislation that I can’t reconcile with the text and the original understanding of the U.S. Constitution," he said.

"Stated differently, if I can’t imagine myself explaining to James Madison with a straight face why what I was doing was consistent with the text and history of the constitution as it’s been amended all 27 times, I’ll vote no. I’ll do it every single time regardless of what the precedent says or can get away with," he continued to applause.

Watch an excerpt of Sen-elect Mike Lee's speech at the Federalist Society.

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

From NBC's Ali Weinberg
In a speech at the Federal Society's annual lawyer's convention, Indiana Rep. Mike Pence, considered a likely 2012 candidate for either governor or president, didn't explicitly say he was seeking the White House but certainly stoked the flames of existing rumors.

Speaking to a packed ballroom of conservative and libertarian-minded lawyers at the group's annual gathering, Pence immediately hearkened to the language of the Founding Fathers, most recently adopted by the Tea Party. He began by saying that President Obama "acts like a king."

"A president who slights the Constitution is like a rider who hates his horse. He will be thrown," Pence said, to the laughter of the audience. "The presidency has run off the rails," he continued. "It begs a new clarity, a new dignity, a new discipline. A new president," he continued.

Pence listed the reasons why the current president should not be re-elected in 2012, and the requirements for a hypothetical successor... whoever it may be.

"It depends entirely upon character and self-discipline," he began. "And an understanding of the covenant and principles that underline not only the republic, but life itself. It communicates that the president feels the gravity of his office and is willing to sacrifice himself. That his eye is not upon his own prospects but the storm of issues through which it is his responsibility to navigate with the specific powers accorded to him and the limitations placed upon it, not merely by man but by God."

Here's your preview of the week ahead in politics. President Obama heads to Indiana, Sarah Palin's latest book is out, and with one of the busiest travel times of the year coming up next week, what will be the fallout from the "Don't touch my junk" controversy over body scanners and TSA pat-downs.

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

From msnbc.com's Tom Curry:

The annual Federalist Society convention is where right-leaning lawyers get together to cheer on their fellow conservatives on the bench and lament decisions made by liberal judges.

According to Legal Times, a Federalist Society audience applauded Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia Thursday when he mentioned that Sen. Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania, first elected in 1980, was leaving the Senate at year's end. (Scalia mentioned Specter in the context of the senator's support for televising Supreme Court proceedings, an idea Scalia opposes.)

Facing a difficult primary challenge from conservative Pat Toomey, Specter left the GOP to run for re-election as a Democrat. Despite support from President Obama, Specter lost a primary to Joe Sestak, who in turn lost to Toomey on Nov. 2.

Conservatives with long memories resent Specter for his vote against Ronald Reagan's Supreme Court nominee Robert Bork in 1987. (He was one of six Republican senators to vote against Bork, who went down to defeat on a vote of 58 to 42.)

The Federalist Society's applause for Specter's departure called to mind conservative doubts about him in 2004 after GOP won control of the Senate and he was in line to become Judiciary Committee chairman. At the time, Specter expressed doubts about whether President George W. Bush's conservative judicial nominees could win confirmation.

"Sen. Specter needs to satisfy not just us, but all the people who voted for the president on Nov. 2, that he is going to facilitate, and not thwart the president's judicial nominees," Judiciary Committee member Sen. John Cornyn, R- Texas, said at the time.

But Specter proved to be a pretty effective shepherd of Bush's nominees.

In the two years he served as chairman, the Senate confirmed 54 of Bush's judicial nominees, including his two Supreme Court nominees, John Roberts and Samuel Alito, and several conservative appeals court favorites such as Bill Pryor and Janice Rogers Brown. (By comparison, so far the Senate has confirmed 43 of Obama's judicial nominees.)

At the 2006 Federalist Society annual meeting, conservatives gave Specter a warm welcome.

"I conclude that most of that applause is for Chief Justice Roberts and Justice Alito," he told the crowd.
He added that the confirmations of Roberts and Alito "may turn out to be the highlight" of Bush's presidency.

"He's a little bit independent-minded sometimes. But there's nothing wrong with that," Bush had said when he campaigned for Specter in 2004. "I can count on this man….He's a firm ally when it matters most."

Perhaps a good epitaph for Specter's career as Judiciary Committee chairman.

From NBC's Shawna Thomas
The draw for Capitol Hill offices has begun for the new House of Representatives members of the 112th Congress. It's kind of like an NFL draft without the ridiculous amounts of money or the endorsement deals. Actually, it's not like the NFL draft at all.

How it works: Members are called in alphabetical order up to the from where they basically pick a number out of a wooden box.

The numbers range from 1 to 85, and already, the first and last have been chosen.

No. 1 went to Rep.-elect Cory Gardner (R-CO), who is already a member of the GOP transition team.

No. 85 went to Rep.-elect Robert Hurt of Virginia's fifth district.

After he picked, someone made the very bad joke of, "What do you call the guy with the last room draw?"

Answer: "Congressman"

Once everyone has a number, they go and check out the available offices. Then they come back at 1:00 pm ET and select their rooms based on the number they picked. As the rooms are pared down, those room numbers will disappear from the TV screens in the room.

Mark Murray and Domenico Montanaro are at it again. This week, they discuss ticket-splitting in the midterm elections. How prevalent was it? Can politics still be local? Did the top of the ticket help candidates? Thanks to JoAnne in PA for the question.

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Don't forget to submit questions for the Boiler Room segments in the upcoming weeks. Write questions below, post them on our Facebook page, or tweet it, to @NBCFirstRead or @mmurraypolitics or @DomenicoNBC.

Video was shot and edited by Alexandra Moe.

What we learned at the RGA meeting: 1) The GOP is more than invigorated after its midterm victories… 2) There’s no love lost between Haley Barbour’s RGA and Michael Steele’s RNC… 3) The governors who are eyeing 2012 are in no hurry to get in the race… Obama arrives in Lisbon… Lew -- finally -- gets confirmed… And Miller Time isn’t over, as Joe Miller has asked for an injunction to stop officials from certifying the results in Alaska.

From NBC's Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, Ali Weinberg
SAN DIEGO, Calif./LISBON, Portugal -- We learned at least three things at the annual Republican Governors Association meeting that concluded here yesterday. First, Republicans are invigorated after their midterm victories earlier this month, no surprise. In consecutive days, the RGA showcased their rising and diverse stars (Nikki Haley of South Carolina, Susana Martinez of New Mexico, and Brian Sandoval of Nevada), and their victorious candidates from Midwest battleground states (Tom Corbett of Pennsylvania, John Kasich of Ohio, Rick Snyder of Michigan, and Scott Walker of Wisconsin). As outgoing Minnesota Gov. -- and possible presidential contender -- Tim Pawlenty said of these governors-elect, "I think the country is going to look at them and say, 'Wow.'" If the Republicans did anything in 2010 for their future even if 2012 doesn't go as planned for them, it was deepening their bench for 2016 and beyond.

*** RGA gets in its digs at Steele and the RNC: Second, we learned that there is no love lost between Haley Barbour's RGA and Michael Steele's RNC. Throughout the two-day conference, Barbour and his allies got in their digs at Steele and made it clear that they want Steele out. Barbour said yesterday that, in 2012, it is “absolutely essential that the RNC operate at maximum capacity,” adding that the RNC didn’t do that in 2010. Remember, the RGA can't fill the gap for the RNC in 2012 since there are just a handful of GOV races (11) with only 4 (and we're being generous) in potential presidential battleground states (MO, IN, NC and NH). RGA folks made clear to First Read that they could have won some of the close races they ended up losing -- like Connecticut, Illinois, Oregon, or Vermont -- if there had been a better-financed RNC with the kind of ground game it has provided in previous years. By the way, Republican Saul Anuzis, who already has announced his bid for RNC chair, was working the halls at the meeting. The rhetoric from the governors seems to hint that there is a desire to unite behind one major anti-Steele candidate in the RNC chair race.

*** Slow ride, take it easy: And third, the governors who are eyeing the 2012 presidential race are planning to take their time before making up their minds. Barbour said he wouldn't announce a decision until after his state's legislative ends in April or May. Is he thinking about running? "I am," he said, adding: "I've begun to talk about it." As for Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, he said that he would spend the next five or six months on "another round of reforms" in the state. "That takes you into April," saying that any decision wouldn’t come before then. And Pawlenty told reporters that he is "a few months" away from making a decision. Mitt Romney appears to be in no hurry, either. Politico writes, “Romney is letting donors know it’ll be a while before he looks to 2012 — and that any presidential campaign he builds will have a much smaller staff than in 2008. ‘People are exhausted from the 2010 election, and they’re not anxious to begin right away with the next campaign,’” Romney told donors, per Politico.

*** Obama arrives in Lisbon… : Thousands of miles away from San Diego, President Obama touched down earlier this morning in Lisbon, Portugal for a NATO summit. This may be a short overseas trip, but the issues involved couldn't be more important to the president -- from getting continued NATO buy-in on the U.S. plan in Afghanistan, to massaging relations with Russia as the president struggles to get the START treaty ratified in the lame-duck Senate. On Afghanistan, this is the beginning of the re-framing of the withdrawal timeline way from July 2011 to the end of 2014. As the administration will argue, 2011 was never an END to Afghanistan but rather the target date to BEGIN the end of the war. And that's how this is being pitched to NATO leaders this weekend; the idea is that as Afghan troops stand up, NATO and U.S. troops stand down. It's a phrase that became familiar to the American public during the height of the Iraq war. Of course, the hard political sell for the White House is to make sure the short-attention span, ADD media doesn't shorthand all of this as "U.S. isn't getting out of Afghanistan until 2014" instead of "U.S. begins withdrawal in 2011, but the withdrawal could take as long as three years." Why 2014? Why not 2012, 2013, or now? Is there really that much confidence the Afghan Army's capability to provide their own security is going to be leaps and bounds better three years from now? That's the question facing the president.

*** … And pens op-ed: Meanwhile, Obama has penned this op-ed in the International Herald-Tribune: “Our shared effort [in Afghanistan] is essential to denying terrorists a safe haven, just as it is necessary to improve the lives of the Afghan people. With the arrival of additional coalition forces over the last two years, we finally have the strategy and resources to break the Taliban's momentum, deprive insurgents of their strongholds, train more Afghan security forces, and assist the Afghan people. In Lisbon, we will align our approach so that we can begin a transition to Afghan responsibility early next year, and adopt President Hamid Karzai's goal of Afghan forces taking the lead for security across Afghanistan by the end of 2014.

*** Who START-ed This Fight: As for the president's struggle to get START passed by the lame-duck senate, look for the administration to begin making a more substantive argument for it, rather than simply the political argument you've been hearing (tradition dictates bipartisan majorities have passed treaties like this before). The substantive arguments include: the fact so many European leaders want this treaty ratified and enacted out of their own safety concerns; Russian cooperation on dealing with Iran could be hampered if it dies; Eastern European countries (like Poland) do support this treaty; and the worry by some Russian experts that the failure of this treaty to be ratified could weaken Medvedev domestically in his partnership with Putin.

*** Lew gets confirmed -- finally: You know it has been a rough last couple of weeks for the White House when the good news includes getting its OMB pick finally confirmed. The Senate last night confirmed Jacob Lew as the president’s new budget director after Louisiana Sen. Mary Landrieu lifted her hold on the nomination. Per Roll Call, Landrieu held up the nomination to protest the administration’s deepwater-drilling moratorium. “The moratorium was lifted last month, and Landrieu said at the time that the move was a ‘good start’ but that she would monitor the administration’s handling of drilling permits before deciding whether to let Lew’s nomination go forward. “In a floor speech after the vote Thursday, Landrieu said she was lifting her hold ‘because notable progress has been made, permits have been issued.’”

*** Strategery? Why did the House Democrats push to pass unemployment benefits, even though they knew they didn’t have the votes? Sure, they got the GOP on record, but what about the ultimate goal of getting these benefits? Will Dems use this as a negotiating tool with Republicans over the Bush tax cuts? And what is the strategy on this issue? Is there one?

*** Censure recommended for Rangel: If he could do it over again, do you think Rep. Charlie Rangel (D) would have run for re-election? Or at least tried a different strategy? The New York Times: "The House ethics committee on Thursday recommended that Representative Charles B. Rangel be formally censured for ethical misconduct, the most serious punishment the House can mete out to a member short of expulsion... Censure requires approval by the full House, which plans to take up the matter after its Thanksgiving recess." More: "If, as expected, censure is approved, Mr. Rangel will be the first member to receive such punishment since 1983, when two congressmen were rebuked for sexual misconduct with House pages. Mr. Rangel would be required to stand in the well of the House while the speaker reads a resolution rebuking him."

*** Miller Time (isn’t over): Even though opponent Lisa Murkowski has been declared the apparent winner in Alaska’s Senate race, Joe Miller isn’t giving up. As the Anchorage Daily News writes, “The Republican candidate in the Alaska U.S. Senate race asked a federal judge Thursday for a preliminary injunction stopping officials from certifying the election. An attorney for Joe Miller sought the injunction as part of a previous lawsuit challenging write-in ballots for Lisa Murkowski, the incumbent senator.”

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“Frustrated by what they see as President Barack Obama's weakness in battling Republicans, leading Democratic donors and tacticians have begun independently plotting their political recovery -- including building a network of outside fundraising and campaign organizations to compete with those formed this year by Republicans,” McClatchy-Tribune writes. “This week, more than 100 wealthy Democrats held a meeting at a Washington hotel at which participants repeatedly called for Obama to be more aggressive in his agenda and tactical combat with the Republican right. ‘I am used to fighting losing battles, but I don't like losing without a fight,’ said George Soros, a longtime donor to causes on the left, who made a call to arms in private conversations at the post-election meeting of the Democracy Alliance, an organization of wealthy Democrats that provides funding to liberal groups.”

Jacob Lew was confirmed last night after Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) withdrew her hold.

After Newt Gingrich’s two-day book signing in Iowa, the Des Moines Register considers whether his heavy investment in policy platforms is enough to compete with other potential presidential hopefuls. “If 2012 were a contest of ideas, Gingrich would already be winning… Too bad for Gingrich that campaigns often have very little to do with ideas,” the Register writes. “He may be intellectually gifted, but Gingrich is no rock star. He’s 67 and looks his age. He’s working on the paunch with a personal trainer, but he can’t match Palin or even Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour when it comes to charisma. He will have been out of office a dozen years by the time he’d launch a presidential campaign.”

“As he did four years ago, state Rep. Roberto Alonzo has filed a bill that would move the Texas presidential primary from the first Tuesday in March to the first Tuesday in February,” the Lubbock Avalanche-Journal writes.

The New York Post goes so far as to call Charlie Rangel a “crook.” The Post’s cover: “Crook-odile tears.” The Post’s lead: “The House ethics committee last night hit Rep. Charles Rangel with the stiff penalty of censure -- after the teary-eyed Harlem congressman begged for mercy and told the panel he wasn't a corrupt politician.”

The New York Daily News’ cover: “It’s a cryin’ shame.” The News’ story: “Rep. Charles Rangel's tears fell on deaf ears Thursday as a House panel recommended he be hit with a harsh censure for violating a slew of House ethics rules.” http://bit.ly/9ogMzp and

Sen. Scott Brown’s limited moves in working with Democrats to alter the health-care law is disappointing Tea Party groups.

“Sen. John Cornyn said during a closed-door meeting Tuesday that he expects colleagues to bring their concerns to him about candidates he recruits as National Republican Senatorial Committee chairman -- and not to help mount challenges against them, Republicans familiar with the meeting said Thursday,” Roll Call reports. “Although not mentioned by name, the Republicans said the Texas lawmaker’s speech was clearly intended for the ears of Sen. Jim DeMint.”

Who’s Jesus rooting for? “The Family Research Council, an influential group with large followings among conservatives and evangelical Christians, announced a nationwide initiative Wednesday to persuade 1 million people to pray” for Sen. Jim DeMint, The State reports. “Tony Perkins, head of the Washington-based organization, said DeMint has been unfairly blamed for having cost Republicans control of the Senate by backing ultraconservative candidates who lost several key general election races last week.”

ALASKA: Sour grapes? Joe Miller’s campaign “asked a federal judge Thursday for a preliminary injunction stopping officials from certifying the election,” the Alaska Daily News writes.

Yesterday was Ted Stevens Day.

NEW YORK: NY-1: Republican Randy Altschuler “is clinging to a 272-vote lead in his quest to end Democratic Rep. Tim Bishop’s Congressional career at four terms, according to updated figures released Thursday by the Bishop campaign,” Roll Call reports. “The margin represents a dramatic improvement for the incumbent, who picked up 111 votes after the first 20 percent of absentee ballots in the Empire State’s 1st district were counted.”

NY-25: “The 25th Congressional District race is tightening, according to new numbers from Onondaga County released by Rep. Dan Maffei’s campaign,” the Auburn Citizen reports. “Unofficial numbers of Onondaga County absentee and emergency ballot counting from Maffei’s campaign show Maffei with 2,101 votes and Buerkle receiving 1,580, according to a campaign press release issued Thursday.”

TEXAS: TX-27: “Two more South Texas counties have recounted Nov. 2 votes by hand as requested by U.S. Rep. Solomon Ortiz. But the results haven’t cut into the Corpus Christi Democrat’s opponent’s lead of about 800 votes,” the AP reports. “Ortiz spokesman Jose Borjon said Wednesday that Willacy County re-tabulated ballots, with Ortiz picking up four votes and Republican Blake Farenthold gaining one.”

SAN DIEGO -- Speaking to reporters at the Republican Governors Association meeting here, Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour and Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels said they were planning to wait until the spring to make up their minds about running for president in 2012.

Barbour said that any decision wouldn't come until after his state's legislative session concluded in April or May. One benefit to waiting, he observed: "The later you start, the less money you'll spend."

Is he thinking about a White House bid? "I am," Barbour replied. "I've begun to talk about it."

As for Daniels, he too said he wanted to spend the next five to six months working with his state's legislature for "another round of big reforms."

"That takes you into April," Daniels said, adding that any decision would not come sooner than that.

The House Ethics Committee has recommended a censure for Rep. Charlie Rangel (D-NY) for violating House rules.

NBC's Shawna Thomas reports that the was 9 to 1 in favor of censure and for Rangel to pay restitution.

From NBC's Ken Strickland
In a brief comment to NBC News this afternoon, Republican Sen. Jon Kyl of Arizona said, "I think there is no chance that [the START] treaty can be completed in the lame duck session."

Kyl was responding to a question about whether there had been any progress made on negotiations for the START nuclear reduction treaty. Earlier this afternoon, Kyl attended a meeting to discuss START at the request of Sen. John Kerry (D-MA).

Also attending the meeting, according to John McCain (R-AZ) were Republican Sens. McCain, Roger Wicker, Jim Inhofe, John Thune, and others.

Kyl also stressed that he was still willing to talk to whomever wanted to talk, hence his meeting today with Kerry. He added that Kerry had been very "persistent" in his effort to continue discussions.

SAN DIEGO – Speaking here before the Republican Governors Association annual meeting, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich delivered remarks that were classic Gingrich -- full of biting comments at Democrats, and full of ideas for the conservative governors in the audience.

Observing that voters had rejected Democrats in 1980, 1984, 1994, and now in 2010, Gingrich said that rejection wasn’t enough. “The challenge for us is to turn rejection of the left into replacement of the left,” he said.

The possible 2012 presidential candidate added, “The challenge for us is to have a Republican Party of jobs and paychecks replace a Democratic Party of bureaucracy and food stamps.”

Gingrich also listed 12 ideas for the assembled Republican governors here. Those ideas included: turning the millions spent on unemployment insurance into a job-training program; turn Medicaid funds into block grants by the number of people in poverty per state; and insist on the teaching of “American exceptionalism” in all public-financed schools.

An extension of unemployment benefits failed in the House this afternoon.

The measure got a vote of 258-154, but the L.A. Times points out that that margin is "ordinarily sufficient to pass legislation. But Democrats brought the measure to the floor using a legislative tactic that required approval from two-thirds of the House."

AP writes: "Republicans in the House Thursday blocked a bill that would have extended jobless benefits for the long-term unemployed beyond the holiday season. An extension of jobless benefits enacted this summer expires Dec. 1, and unless they are renewed, two million people will lose benefits averaging $310 a week nationwide by the end of December. The failed measure would have extended jobless benefits through the end of February at a cost of adding $12.5 billion to the nation's debt. Republicans opposing the legislation said the measure should be paid for by cutting unspent money from last year's economic stimulus bill. The White House criticized Congress for voting to cut off unemployment benefits with the holiday break approaching."