Susana Martinez, center, her husband, Chuck Franco, right, and sister, Leticia, foreground, walk into a crowd of supporters in Las Cruces, N.M. on election night. (Photo by William Faulkner / AP)
From NBC's political team
Another piece of history made tonight: New Mexico has elected the first female Hispanic governor in American history.
NBC News projects that Republican District Attorney Susana Martinez has won the governorship over Democrat Lt. Gov. Diane Denish.
Now that NBC has projected the House for Republicans (according to our model) and now that the Senate is incredibly unlikely to flip (due to Joe Manchin's victory), our focus now turns to the silver-lining races for Democrats:
— Florida Gov (Sink vs. Scott)
— Ohio Gov (Strickland vs. Kasich)
— Colorado Senate (Bennet vs. Buck)
— Nevada Senate (Reid vs. Angle)
If Democrats win two of these four races — all of which are in battleground states — they can have something to cheer, despite the other bad news for the party.
*** UPDATE 3 *** Nov. 30, 2010: There is just one uncalled race remaining -- NY-1, where Rep. Tim Bishop leads by 235 votes.
*** UPDATE 2: There are 11 close races we're still watching -- all Dem-held seats. Republicans lead in two of those, so their number could inch upward.
*** UPDATE: AP reversed its GA-2 call. Sanford Bishop is now in the lead.
Check back here for the House gains as the night goes on:
Dem Pick Ups (3):
GOP Pick Ups (66): GOP +60 - Magic number: GOP officially takes back the House
*55 total incumbents lost (53 Democrats)
In other races we're watching: Dems held in NC-11, OH-13, IN-2, NC-8, WV-3, NC-7, GA-12, CT-4, GA-12, ME-1, 2, PA-4, 12, 17, RI-1, MA-10, IA-1, 2, 3, MN-1.
GOP holds: FL-12, AL-5, PA-6, 15, IL-10 (one of Dems' best pick up chances)
Still up for grabs in: CA-11, CA-20, IL-8, KY-6, NY-1, NY-25, TX-27, VA-11, WA-2
In addition to the above flips, the GOP also retained the following open seats:
FL-12
KS-4
TN-3
SC-3
MO-7
GA-9
OK-5
MI-2
KS-1
CA-19
SC-2
AZ-3
IN-4
AR-3
MI-3
FL-25
GA-7
FL-5
IN-3
From the NBC political unit
With polls now closed in two of the nation's most competitive Senate races, it's still too close to call the winners in Wisconsin and Colorado.
At 9 p.m. ET, the race between incumbent Democrat Russ Feingold and GOP challenger Ron Johnson in Wisconsin is too close to call. So is the hard-fought Colorado contest between Democrat Michael Bennet and Republican Ken Buck.
NBC has also reported Gov. John Hoeven the projected winner in North Dakota, meaning that Republicans have now netted three Senate seats.
While a record number of women are running for the Senate this cycle, five women have already lost tonight: Incumbent Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR), Linda McMahon (R-CT), Christine O’Donnell (R-DE), Lisa Johnston (D-KS), and Elaine Marshall (D-NC).
Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D-MD) and Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) have won their re-election campaigns.
Despite the loss of Lincoln, the Senate picks up another female senator with Kelly Ayotte (R) from New Hampshire.
There are still six female Senate races to watch, with one women vs. women race in California between Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) and Carly Fiorina (R).
From the NBC News political unit
NBC News projects that Republicans will gain a majority in the House.
The new Republican majority means the ouster of Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House, with the likely election of Republican John Boehner of Ohio to replace her in the chamber's highest post. It will put the GOP in charge of the lower chamber. Republicans have pledged to introduce legislation that could partially unwind the reforms passed under the Obama administration.
NBC's projection is that Republicans will hold a 236 to 199 seat advantage in the next House of Representatives. The margin of error is plus or minus 13 seats.
Republicans needed to win 39 seats to regain the majority in the House.
Democrats gained 32 seats in the 2006 cycle and 24 seats in 2008. The GOP wave makes 2010 the third "change" election in as many cycles — only the third time that has happened since World War II.
From the NBC political unit
West Virginia Gov. Joe Manchin's strategy of running hard against Washington Democrats has paid off.
NBC News projects that Manchin will win the state's Senate race over Republican John Raese.
The popular Democrat ran ads distancing himself from both political parties, memorably shooting a copy of the cap-and-trade bill with a rifle in one commercial. He also branded Raese, who has unsuccessfully run for statewide office twice before, as a "crazy" Tea Party-backed candidate far outside of the mainstream.
Manchin will step into the seat long held by the late Democrat Sen. Robert Byrd.
From the NBC political unit
Republicans have now netted two Senate seats.
NBC News projects that Rep. John Boozman has won the Arkansas Senate race over incumbent Democrat Sen. Blanche Lincoln.
Lincoln barely survived a bruising primary against Lt. Gov. Bill Halter, who received millions from labor groups upset with Lincoln's opposition to the public option in health care legislation. But she struggled throughout the general election.
Along with Republican Dan Coats' victory in Indiana, Boozman's win means that Republicans now have gained two seats in the upper chamber.
NBC projects Rick Boucher (D) to lose in VA-9, in the Southwestern part of the state.
It's the first GOP flip of the night, and it's a a very bad sign for Democrats' chances to hold the House. That was ranked No. 85 on our list of GOP targets. Welcome, Rep. Morgan Griffith.
It appears that the Senate win by Rand Paul in Kentucky marks a first in congressional history. It is the first time that a son has served in the Senate while his father served in the House of Representatives.
Ron Paul of course is a congressman from Texas, and a former GOP contender for president.
There have been other instances of fathers and sons serving in Congress together. Of note, Sen. Ted Kennedy of Massachusetts and his son Patrick serving as a Congressman from Rhode Island. But in that case it was the father in the upper house and his son serving in the lower house.
And there was a father and son that served in the Senate simultaneously. Henry Dodge of Wisconsin served in the Senate from 1848 to 1857 and his son, Augustus Dodge, was a Senator from Iowa, from 1855-1858.
From the NBC News political unit
Connecticut GOP Senate candidate Linda McMahon's investment of over $45 million of her own money into the race wasn't enough to boost her over state attorney general Richard Blumenthal.
NBC News projects Blumenthal, the Democrat, the winner of the Connecticut race to replace retiring Democrat Sen. Chris Dodd.
The race received hefty national attention as Blumenthal faced criticism for embellishing his military record and McMahon was slammed by critics for her tenure as the CEO of wrestling empire WWE.
Blumenthal invested $2.3 million of his own funds into the expensive race.
We've been saying that Republicans need a net gain of 39 seats in the House. That's moved up now to 40.
NBC News calls John Carney (D) has won in Delaware. It's the first flip of the night.
Imagine if Mike Castle ran for re-election — it would likely be add another to the GOP total.
From the NBC News political team
NBC News projects Republican Marco Rubio the winner of the three-way Florida Senate race.
Independent Charlie Crist and Democrat Kendrick Meek split the anti-Rubio vote, allowing the Cuban-American conservative to cruise to a fairly easy victory in the state. Meek was reportedly urged to exit the race by longtime ally former President Bill Clinton, although Meek has disputed the report.
The Florida gubernatorial race between Democrat Alex Sink and Republican former hospital executive Rick Scott is too close to call at 8 p.m. ET.
From the NBC News political team
Her unforgettable 'I'm not a witch' ad earned her national press attention, but it wasn't enough to push Christine O'Donnell to victory in the Delaware Senate race.
NBC News projects that the insurgent Tea Party-backed Republican was defeated, as expected, by Democrat Chris Coons.
Republicans in the Northeast can celebrate one Senate victory though. NBC News projects that Republican Kelly Ayotte is the winner of the New Hampshire Senate race.
NBC's Adam Verdugo reports again from Anchorage, Alaska, on yet another funny image from Alaska (at right) that's appearing on T-shirts:
According to the national exit polls, 56% say that government is doing too many things better left to businesses and individuals.
In the 2008 exits, only 43% said that.
Yet in 1994, when Republicans regained control of Congress, 56% said the government was doing too much.
From the NBC News political team
NBC News projects Republican Rob Portman the winner of the Ohio Senate race.
Portman, a former congressman who served as President George W. Bush's budget director, will replace retiring Republican George Voinovich. His Democratic opponent, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher, had consistently trailed in the race.
The tight gubernatorial race in Ohio between incumbent Gov. Ted Strickland and Republican former congressman John Kasich is too close to call at 7:30 p.m. ET.
The West Virginia Senate race between Democrat Gov. Joe Manchin and Republican John Raese is currently too early to call. But Manchin, who has largely run on his opposition to the Democratic health care and cap-and-trade bills, is currently leading in the race.
NBC's Adam Verdugo
ANCHORAGE, Alaska -- Supporters of incumbent Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) are wearing bracelets with Murkowski's name on them. Murkowski is running a write-in campaign, because she lost to Joe Miller (R) in the primary.
NBC's Adam Verdugo reports from Anchorage, Alaska, that voters are going to the polls with bracelets (pictured at right) and T-shirts with Lisa Murkowski's name on them.
Team Murkowski has been handing them out at rallies. One side says, "Lisa Murkowski". The other says, "Fill it in, write it in."
Voters must fill in the oval next to "write in" IN ADDITION to writing the name of the candidate or else the vote is useless.
No Senate candidate has won a write-in campaign since 1954, when Strom Thurmond did it.
From the NBC News political team
NBC News projects that Kentucky Republican Rand Paul and Indiana Republican Dan Coats have won their U.S. Senate races.
Paul, the son of one-time presidential candidate Rep. Ron Paul, received Tea Party support in his contest against state attorney general Democrat Jack Conway. Paul will replace Republican Sen. Jim Bunning, who is retiring.
In a less difficult cycle for Democrats, Indiana's Coats might have faced a tougher fight against opponent Brad Ellsworth, a former sheriff. Coats will replace retiring Democrat Evan Bayh, making this seat a pickup for the GOP.
NBC News also calls the South Carolina gubernatorial race between Republican Nikki Haley and Democrat Vincent Sheheen 'too close to call' at 7 p.m. ET.
After the first set of exit polls, we can confirm what we've seen in our NBC/WSJ survey and other polls: Voters are unhappy and pessimistic.
Per the exit polls, 26% say they're angry about the way the federal government is working, and another 47% say they're dissatisfied (but not angry). Just 21% say they're satisfied, and another 3% say they're enthusiastic.
In addition, 62% say the country is on the wrong track; 88% say the state of the economy is either poor or not so good; and 86% are worried about the economy's direction for next year.
And, according to the exits, 39% believe the government should do more to solve problems, while 56% think it's doing too many things.
President Obama's approval rating in the exit poll is 45%-54%, similar to what our final NBC/WSJ poll showed.
From Msnbc.com's Tom Curry
In early exit poll data, 62 percent of voters said the economy is the most important issue facing the country, with 56 percent said the country is on the wrong track.
With 14.8 million unemployed – 4.5 million more than on Election Day 2008 – it's not surprising that the economy is the dominant issue in the election.
Nearly nine in ten voters said the state of the economy was not good. And nearly 90 percent of voters were also pessimistic about the nation’s economic future.
The data also suggested that the 2010 electorate is turning out to be more conservative than in previous elections.
A relatively high 41 percent of voters identified themselves as conservatives, with only 20 percent calling themselves liberals and 39 percent identifying as moderates.
In the 2006 midterm elections in which the Democrats took control of Congress, only 32 percent of the electorate identified itself as conservative. In the 2008 election, only 34 percent called themselves conservative.
And after a stimulus program and bailouts of banks, most voters seemed to want a less activist government: 56 percent of voters said they wanted government to do less, while only 39 percent said government should do more to solve the nation's problems.
From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell
Aides say that John Boehner, the man poised to be the next Speaker of the House if Republicans win control of the lower chamber of Congress tonight, will be working out of a command center in the D.C. hotel where the GOP congressional campaign team will watch results.
Boehner, along with his senior staff, will spend time calling winning GOP candidates to congratulate them.
He will also be in close contact with National Republican Congressional Committee chairman Rep. Pete Sessions, the staff at the NRCC, and the entire Leadership team.
Aides downplay expectations and say they are "taking nothing for granted. The American people have every right to have their voices heard, and Boehner encouraged every American this morning to do their duty and vote. He is not expected to address the results-watch gathering this evening until we have a good handle on the results."
Aides say they expect the D.C. headquarters party will be upbeat but they say "the tone of the overall event will be serious and reflective of the challenges that lie ahead for our nation. This is not a time for celebration. It wouldn't be right to have a balloon drop and party hats when nearly one in 10 Americans are out of work."
A few candidates who will likely be going home disappointed tonight won on at least one measure this election cycle: media attention.
A survey by the Pew Research Center's Project for Excellence in Journalism, which tracks how news organizations cover stories, found that the media showered coverage this year on several candidates who trail by double digits in recent public polls, including N.Y. gubernatorial candidate Carl Paladino and Florida Senate candidate Charlie Crist.
And second only to the president in the number of election stories primarily addressing a single newsmaker: Delaware Senate candidate Christine O'Donnell. O'Donnell was the subject of about 160 stories in the survey.
Paladino was featured in 52 stories; Arkansas Senate candidate Blanche Lincoln (who faced a contested primary but now trails her Republican opponent badly) also clocks in at 52; and Republican Meg Whitman, who has spent over $140 million of her own money on her gubernatorial bid in California, was the main subject of 90 stories.
Both Nevada Senate candidates and Kentucky Senate contender Rand Paul were also among the top newsmakers, according to the study.
The project has tracked 52 different news outlets -- including television, cable, online, radio, and newspapers -- since January of this year. A story would be coded as a specific "newsmaker" story only if the figure was the "dominant force" of the story, explains Project Associate Director Mark Jurkowitz.
About 10 percent of all news stories over that period of time focused on the 2010 elections, Jurkowitz said.
Here's our 2010 NBC News Election Briefing Book with a Viewer's Guide for you to follow along hour-by-hour, race by race.
The conventional wisdom is that Republicans will take back a majority in the House of Representatives, making Ohio congressman John Boehner the next Speaker of the House and likely public face of the Republican Party.
Two key numbers to watch for those keeping score at home: 55 and 54. Since World War II, the most House seats gained by one party was 55 in 1946. The close runner up: 54 in 1994.
The NBC Voter Confidence Index (which measures the level of confidence Americans have in the president and party in power back to 1974) certainly points to that as a possibility. Currently, votersÕ level of confidence in President Obama and the Democratic Party sits at -36, six points worse than 1994. (For more on the VCI, check out: http://vci.msnbc.com.)
There are a handful of races in the states that close early tonight that could provide a roadmap for just how big the wave will be. Some that could tell us something about the rest of the night: GA-8, IN-9, SC-5, KY-6.
Check out more of those with analysis in the "Viewer's Guide."
Our Top 11 takeovers are all Democratic-held seats. Republicans need to win 10 of those to take control. The top four are at least leaning toward the GOP -- North Dakota, Arkansas, Indiana, and Wisconsin. No. 11 – California leans toward the Democrats. That could mean Republicans would need to run the table and win all six of the toss ups – Pennsylvania, Colorado, Illinois, Nevada, West Virginia, Washington.
There are 37 governors races, and there could be as many as 30 new governors. Control in many state over redistricting plus 2012 momentum are at stake. Republicans are set to make big gains. Key swing states: Ohio (Toss Up), Florida (toss up), and Pennsylvania (Lean R). Plus, other Toss Ups: Illinois, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oregon, Rhode Island, and Vermont. California is Lean D.
LAS VEGAS -- Guess who's crashing Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's election night party hotel.
The Tea Party Express has booked space for a "Victory Watch Party" tonight at the Aria Hotel and Casino on the Las Vegas Strip--the same hotel as Reid's event. They even plan to park the Tea Party Express bus out front.
In a statement, the Reid campaign said: "We're very pleased they've chosen to spend their money at a project Sen. Reid saved." The Aria is part of a big downtown development that Reid helped save from bankruptcy.
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