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  • Bachmann to run for leadership post

    From NBC's Luke Russert
    One thing to look for now that Rep. Mike Pence has stepped down as GOP Conference Chair, GOP sources tell NBC News that Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., may attempt to try and run for the position of GOP Conference Chairman.

    Bachmann enjoys a lot of popularity with the Tea Party as well as with many of the new faces who won election last night.

    Rep. Jeb Hensarling, R-Texas, has indicated he wants to run for Pence's position. Hensarling is a very close ally of Eric Cantor, R-Va., and the GOP establishment. He also is on the short list to possibly be Chairman of the House Financial Services Committee.

    If Bachmann decides to run, it could mean the first "Establishment versus Tea Party" battle within the GOP Leadership.

    In that battle, it is now unclear who would prevail because it is not known who the newly elected House Republicans would support.

    *** UPDATE *** Bachmann has now formally announced her intention to run for the post.

    Bachmann’s decision to enter the race comes after GOP establishment favorite Jeb Hensarling (R-TX) announced his decision to seek the chairmanship with an endorsement and full support from future Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA).

    While Bachmann’s campaign will create a lot of buzz in GOP circles, a senior GOP aide on Capitol Hill tells NBC News that a chance of a Bachmann victory is, “slim to none.” The aide continued, “She’d be hard-pressed to find the votes to win that job.”

    Despite an uphill battle, Bachmann will not back down. Bachmann aide Sergio Gor tells NBC News, “This election told us that Constitutional Conservatives can win all across America, it’s important that they have a seat at the Leadership table.”

    One supporter of Bachmann tells NBC News that she would be a welcome candidate because, “she would stand up to leadership and not allow the GOP to be co-opted by Democrats.”

    The election for Conference Chair will most likely occur on November 17th.

  • First thoughts: Historic night


    *** Historic night: Another election, another night of history. Republicans last night won back control of the House, netting approximately 60 House seats, the largest midterm gain by one party since World War II. It also was the first time since the direct election of senators that the House flipped but the Senate didn’t, with the GOP gaining (for now) six seats. And, per the latest count, Republicans picked up seven governorships. What’s still outstanding: The Senate races in Alaska, Colorado and Washington, and the GOV races in Connecticut, Florida, Illinois, Minnesota, Oregon, and Vermont.

    *** Boehner couldn’t have asked for a better result: The likely next House speaker, John Boehner, couldn’t have asked for a better result from last night. With Democrats in charge of the White House and the Senate, Boehner’s GOP-controlled House now has the potential to pass legislation at will, but blame the Obama administration and the Senate for the inability to get things done -- or to pass THEIR versions of legislation (like, say, repealing health care). Which ever party wins the spin war over the expected gridlock in Washington will have the upper hand heading into 2012.

    *** Something about Harry: Despite his big win last night, is Harry Reid’s position in leadership totally safe? On “TODAY” this morning, he sounded as if he was trying to send a message to the Democratic incumbents who are up in 2012 that he’s received a wake-up call and he can lead the Democratic Senate in these tumultuous political times. But remember: Many of the 2006 Dem Senate class have ties to Chuck Schumer.

    *** Good news and bad news for Team Obama: If you’re David Plouffe or David Axelrod, last night wasn’t a complete disaster regarding 2012. Joe Sestak’s and Ted Strickland’s narrow losses in Pennsylvania and Ohio, respectively, demonstrate that the path to victory in those states is still in reach for Obama (with a little help from the economy). The Senate races in Colorado and Nevada also suggest that Dems still have juice in the Mountain West. (The Latino vote, which Harry Reid won 68%-30% in Nevada, will only grow in size between now and ’12.) And Team Obama has to feel heartened by the fact that North Carolina wasn’t the bloodbath other states were. On the other hand, the Midwest -- particularly Indiana and Wisconsin -- was a problem for Democrats, even with Sestak’s and Strickland’s close defeats. Per the exits, Republicans won the region, 53%-44%, a reversal from 2008, when Dems won the region, 54%-44%. And Florida feels a lot redder than it did after ’08.

    *** Obama and turnout: Obama’s campaign appearances in Illinois and Pennsylvania certainly helped Alexi Giannoulias and Sestak keep their races close. Giannoulias crushed Mark Kirk in Chicago, while Sestak lapped Pat Toomey in Philly. Where these Democrats didn’t fare as well, at least relative to ’08, was in the Chicago/Philly suburbs. But while Obama helped keep those races close, midterm turnout was down for the Dems from 2006 -- 126,000 less in Pennsylvania, 273,000 less in Missouri, and 330,000 less in Ohio, per Dem pollster Fred Yang.

    *** Obama meets the press: At 1:00 pm ET, the president holds a White House press conference to discuss yesterday’s midterm results.

    *** The Tea Party’s successes and failures: So how did the Tea Party fare last night? By our count, 113 of the 129 House GOP nominees we identified as being associated with the Tea Party won their congressional races, which is an astounding success rate. [CORRECTION: After 20+ hours of crunching numbers, your First Read authors looked up on MSNBC and heard the above number rattled off, and we included here. We went back and checked and the number is much lower. Tea Party-backed candidates only won overall about 32% of their races. Just 40 of 130 won races (so far) in the House. That's just 31%. For more on Tea Party numbers, click here.] On the other hand, we can count at least two Senate races (Delaware and Nevada) -- and possibly a third (if Ken Buck loses in Colorado) -- that the GOP lost because its Tea Party nominees were too conservative for their states. Make no mistake: If Republicans had already won in Colorado, Delaware, and Nevada, they’d be just one seat away from taking the Senate. And we’d be glued to the final votes coming from Washington state...

    *** The GOP’s establishment-vs.-Tea Party divide: As one Republican source reminds us, “establishment” GOP Senate candidates (like Kelly Ayotte, Dan Coats, John Hoeven, John Boozman, and Mark Kirk) fared much better than the Tea Party-backed Senate candidates. The losses by Christine O’Donnell and Sharron Angle will only advance the ideological split inside the GOP between the purists and the pragmatists. Just check out Jim DeMint’s Wall Street Journal op-ed.

    *** The midterm electorate: Per NBC’s Ana Maria Arumi, a closer look at the exit poll reveals that the voters who participated in yesterday’s midterms were older (23% were over the age of 65, an eight-point increase from ’08) and whiter (78% were white, a four-point increase from ’08)… 56% said that the government is doing too many things (versus 43% who said that in ’08)… Independents broke in favor of Republicans, 55%-39% (versus breaking for Obama 52%-44% in ’08)

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  • Second thoughts: On the House races

    *** 60-plus: As we mentioned above, Republicans gained approximately 60 House seats. There are still 12 races we're watching -- all held by Democrats -- that are too close to call. Republicans lead in three of those, so GOP gains will likely inch slightly higher. What's left: AZ-7, AZ-8, CA-11, CA-20, GA-2, IL-8, KY-6, MI-9, NY25, TX-27, VA-11, and WA-2.

    *** The correction: In 2006 and 2008 combined, Democrats picked up 56 seats (mostly in Republican-leaning territories). Well, Republicans took back 38 of those of those 56 seats. But what's most striking is that the GOP gained back nearly all the seats it lost (21 of 24) in ’08, and the other three are hung up in races that are too close to call. Of the other eight on the list of races yet to be called, three of them are '06 seats.

    *** The hurricane that started in the South and continued through the Midwest: Democrats really got crushed in the South and Midwest. They lost 23 seats in the South, including four in Florida, three in Tennessee, and two in Texas (with an additional one in overtime). They lost 21 seats in the Midwest, including a total of 13 in Pennsylvania (5), Ohio (5), and Illinois (3).

    *** 164 years of service gone: The longest-serving House member in history, John Dingell, may have walked away with a victory, but several of his Democratic colleagues who have worked in the lower chamber for decades lost their seats. Six "Old Bulls" -- John Spratt of South Carolina, Rick Boucher of Virginia, Ike Skelton of Missouri, Chet Edwards of Texas, James Oberstar of Minnesota, and Earl Pomeroy of North Dakota -- were defeated Tuesday. Out of that group, that's 128 combined years of service in the chamber.

    *** We're about to find out what happens when Congress tops being polite and starts getting real...: Former “Real World” contestant Sean Duffy won in WI-7. But, as Cook House editor David Wasserman put it, Democrats and Republicans' "worst nightmare" came true because "live wires like" Renee Ellmers in NC-2, Allen West in FL-22, and Raul Labrador in ID-1 all won. Expect those districts -- and others -- to become top Dem targets in 2012. http://bit.ly/bxlLyb

    *** O-hio: NBC's Chris Donovan points out that John Boehner would be the third speaker from the state of Ohio. The other two:
    -- J. Warren Keifer - one term - (1881-83) and
    -- Nicholas Longworth - 3 terms - (1925-31). NOTE: The Longworth House Office Building was named for him.

  • More about last night

    "After running for months against the Washington ruling establishment, a host of Tea Party-backed candidates won election yesterday and promptly faced the challenge of transitioning from a boisterous political campaign to finding common ground in Congress to deal with a massive debt they vowed to control," the Boston Globe writes, adding that "the movement also faced some setbacks" like in Nevada, Delaware and West Virginia.

    The Wall Street Journal: "Republicans took control of governors' mansions across the country, including a close contest in swing state Ohio and a victory by a tea-party favorite in South Carolina. The GOP flipped at least a half-dozen states that had been governed by Democrats, racking up wins across the Midwest, notably in Michigan, Wisconsin, Kansas, Oklahoma and, in the West, Wyoming. Republicans also took over governors' seats in Pennsylvania, Tennessee and New Mexico and looked poised to pick up wins in Iowa and Florida as well.

    The New York Times on the national implications of those state races: "States are preparing to carry out their once-a-decade redrawing of political districts — for the House and state legislatures — based on United States census counts collected this year, and many of these new governors will have important roles in deciding what those maps look like. Going into Election Day, Democrats held 26 governorships, while Republicans had 24. Following most midterm elections after the arrival of a new president, the party in power in the White House typically loses some governorships, but the changes on Tuesday appeared to go deeper."

    The Washington Post on the reason why some concession speeches, including that in the California governors' race, came later than others: "At 10 p.m. (1 a.m. ET Wednesday), former Republican governor Pete Wilson took the stage at the "victory" party of apparently defeated Republican gubernatorial candidate Meg Whitman and informed the crowd at the Hilton Universal hotel ballroom that an insufficient number of votes had been counted for Whitman to concede. 'I recall several long nights,' Wilson said. 'But you know something. Those nights ended the right way. I never lost. And I think that is what we are facing tonight.' He said the secretary of state's computer had crashed."

    FLORIDA: "Florida's governor's race pitting Republican Rick Scott against Democrat Alex Sink for governor is proving to be a cliffhanger. Scott, a healthcare mogul, held an edge in the wee hours of Wednesday morning, but Sink refused to concede by saying `we're going to let the people of Florida -- all the people of Florida -- have their voices heard.'"

    NEVADA: The Las Vegas Sun characterizes voters' sentiment about their choices in yesterday's Senate and gubernatorial race as "a joyless slog, like needing a new car but only having the budget to trudge through a used car lot in search of something that runs... The Reid toxicity carried over to [Sen. Harry Reid's] son Rory Reid, the Clark County commissioner running for governor as a Democrat."

    The waiting is the hardest part: "Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) is leading Dino Rossi (R) by just more than 1 point, but the winner in the vote-by-mail state may not be known for weeks," CQ writes. "A spokesman at the Washington secretary of state’s office projected that as much as 40 percent of the total vote is not yet in. Envelopes needed only to be postmarked by Nov. 2."

  • How Harry Reid won


    LAS VEGAS -- In a year of anti-incumbent fervor and anger over the economy, how did Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) beat the odds and win a fifth term in a state battered by the bad economy?

    A look at interviews with voters as they left the polls suggests it was by making Sharron Angle, his Tea Party-backed Republican opponent the issue, not the economy.

    In a state with the highest unemployment rate in the nation, 40 percent of voters said they'd been laid off in the last two years -- and Reid won them, 49 percent to 39. In a state with the highest home foreclosure rate in the nation, 53 percent of voters said they or a relative were worried about losing their home -- and Reid and Angle split them, 46-48.

    In the closing days of the campaign, Reid's TV ads pounded away at Angle, painting her as extreme and out of the mainstream--an opponent of Social Security and a proponent of privatizing the Veterans' Affairs Department and eliminating the Education Department.

    In the exit poll, 44 percent said Angle was "too conservative," and Reid won moderates, 62-33.

    At the same time, Reid's get-out-the-vote operation capitalized on Angle's tough stand on illegal immigration to mobilize Hispanics, who turned out at a greater rate than in the 2008 presidential election and voted for Reid, 66-31. And Reid got help from organized labor, as union households voted for him 69-29.

    In this contest between the grassroots intensity of the Tea Party movement and a well-oiled campaign machine, the machine won.

  • In some House races, it's going to overtime!

    Here are just a few races that are very close (insert Ratherism here), where we may not know the results for a few days:

    TX-27: 100% in, Solomon Ortiz (D) is down by 799 votes out of 101,000 votes

    KY-6: 99% in Chandler up 600 out of 240,000

    VA-11: 99% Connolly up 487 of 220,000

    WA-2: 61% in Larsen down 48-47, or 1,429 out of 173,000

    MN-8: 64% in Oberstar down 2,126 of 155,000 votes

  • Pelosi: 'House took courageous action'

    Outgoing House Speaker Nancy Pelosi put out a statement reacting to tonight. She said, "The House took courageous action" in the face of a potential Depression.

    Pelosi Statement on the Midterm Elections:

    "Over the last four years, the Democratic Majority in the House took courageous action on behalf of America’s middle class to create jobs and save the country from the worst economic catastrophe since the Great Depression.
    "Our Members and candidates ran remarkable campaigns led by the superb leadership of DCCC Chairman Chris Van Hollen.
    "The outcome of the election does not diminish the work we have done for the American people. We must all strive to find common ground to support the middle class, create jobs, reduce the deficit and move our nation forward."
  • Early Alaska results look good for Murkowski

    From the NBC political team
    We might be in for a long night -- or a long few weeks -- in the Alaska Senate race, but the early numbers are good ones for Republican write-in candidate Lisa Murkowski.

    With about 58 percent of votes recorded, the "write in" option is leading with 39 percent of the vote, with Republican Joe Miller receiving 36 percent and Democrat Scott McAdams getting 25 percent.

    If the write-in option wins or comes within one percent of the top vote-getter, the ballots will be individually evaluated to determine which names voters wrote in. That process could take weeks.

    "We're not done yet," Murkowski told supporters in an upbeat address early Wednesday morning.

  • Kerry on Reid: 'Hell, all the pundits were wrong'

    Democratic Sen. John Kerry is very, very enthusiastic about Majority Leader Harry Reid's win in Nevada.

    "Politico was wrong, Huffington Post was wrong, hell, all the pundits were wrong," Kerry said in a written statement. "Harry Reid isn’t just Dracula, he isn’t just Lazarus, he’s our Leader and our whole caucus is thrilled that he’s unbreakable and unbeatable."

  • 'Old Bulls' in the House lose long-held seats

    It's been a tough night for some long-serving House Democrats.

    At this hour, Democrats have lost in 45 congressional districts. Several of those defeated have served in Congress for over two decades.

    Reps. John Spratt of South Carolina and Rick Boucher of Virginia were both first elected to the House in 1982.

    Ike Skelton of Missouri, the chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, has served since 1976.

    Chet Edwards of Texas began his career in Congress in 1990.

    Rep. Earl Pomeroy of North Dakota, who was running for a tenth term, was first elected in 1992.

    All five were defeated tonight.

    Between just those five "Old Bulls," that's 128 combined years of service in the chamber.

  • President Obama speaks to Pelosi, Boehner

    President Barack Obama makes an election night phone call to Rep. John Boehner (R-Ohio) from his Treaty Room office in the White House residence, Nov. 2, 2010.

    NBC's Savannah Guthrie reports that President Obama has reached out to both soon-to-be former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and likely soon-to-be Speaker John Boehner.

    NBC's Chuck Todd has the following read-out of the president's conversation with Boehner, per Boehner's office:

    President Obama called Leader Boehner at midnight to congratulate him. They had a brief but pleasant conversation. Leader Boehner said he’s always been straightforward and honest with the president in the past, and said that’s the way he’ll continue to be with the president in the future. They discussed working together to focus on the top priorities of the American people, which Boehner has identified as creating jobs and cutting spending. "That's what they expect," Boehner said. He thanked the president for the call.

    (Official White House Photo by Pete Souza via WH Flickr stream)

  • Tea Party of Five


    Five Tea Party-backed candidates running for Senate have won their campaigns — three have lost so far.

    Pat Toomey (PA), Rand Paul (KY), Marco Rubio (FL), Ron Johnson (WI), and Mike Lee (UT) are the five who will be Senators. Christine O’Donnell (DE), Sharron Angle (NV), and John Raese (WV) lost their bids.

    The remaining two Tea Party candidates — Ken Buck (CO) and Joe Miller (AK) — have very competitive races.

  • Senate Majority Leader Reid keeps his job

    From the NBC News political team
    NBC News projects that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has defeated Tea Party-backed candidate Sharron Angle in Nevada.

    Angle was not the preferred candidate of national Republicans, who wanted Lt. Gov. Sue Lowden to challenge the highly unpopular majority leader. Angle was criticized during the general election for numerous gaffes and her studious avoidance of the press.

    Reid, whose approval ratings in the state have floundered as unemployment, foreclosures, and bankruptcies in Nevada remained the worst in the nation, was nonetheless able to paint Angle as too extreme for the state.

    His victory averts a Democratic leadership struggle between Sen. Chuck Schumer and Sen. Dick Durbin, who were both said to be eyeing the job if Reid was to lose.

  • Toomey wins; GOP has now netted 6 in Senate

    From the NBC political team
    NBC News projects that former GOP Rep. Pat Toomey is the winner of the Pennsylvania Senate race.

    Toomey, the former head of anti-spending group Club for Growth, defeated Rep. Joe Sestak in the close contest.

    Sestak overcame incumbent (and Republican-turned-Democrat) Sen. Arlen Specter in the state's May Democratic primary.

    Toomey's victory means that Republicans have now netted six Senate seats.

  • GOP's Kirk wins Obama's old seat

    From the NBC News political team
    Republican Mark Kirk is NBC's projected winner of the Illinois Senate race, snatching the seat that former Sen. Barack Obama held in Illinois.

    Kirk defeated Obama ally Alexi Giannoulias. Giannoulias struggled to overcome reports that his family's failed bank made loans to known criminals. The president and the first lady both made stops in the state to try to boost the Democrat.

    Kirk, for his part, faced criticism during the campaign for embellishing his military record.

    The victory for Kirk gives Republicans a net gain of five Senate seats so far tonight.

  • Democrats now almost assured to keep Senate control

    From the NBC political team
    As of 12 a.m. ET, with the projected win of Democratic incumbent Daniel Inouye in Hawaii, Democrats now have control of 48 seats in the Senate.

    Two independents — Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Joe Lieberman of Connecticut — caucus with Democrats.

    That means Democrats have effectively retained control of the U.S. Senate unless Republicans are able to bring any moderate Democrats or independents into their caucus.

    Republicans have picked up four Senate seats so far tonight. They would have needed to net 10 seats to achieve a majority in the Senate.

    There are still tight races to be called in Colorado, Illinois and Nevada that will affect the final count as well.

  • Boxer hangs on in California

    From the NBC News political team
    Don't call her ma'am, call her senator — for another Senate term.

    NBC News projects that incumbent Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer has hung on to her job after facing a challenge from former HP CEO Carly Fiorina.

    The governors race in the California is still too early to call.

  • 'Personhood' amendment fails in Colorado


    Voters rejected Amendment 62 in Colorado. This amendment, referred to as the personhood amendment, would have defined a ‘person’ as beginning at conception. Early results show overwhelming opposition.

    Other ballot measures to watch for as results continue to come in across the country: Proposition 19 in California would legalize marijuana; the amendment in Illinois would allow for recalling a governor by petition; and Proposition 106 in Arizona would prohibit mandatory participation in the health care system.

  • Most new senators will be no strangers to politics

    From Carrie Dann and Ken Strickland
    There's been a lot of talk this cycle about the ousting of "career politicians."

    While two incumbent senators have already been defeated tonight, a look at the incoming class of freshmen senators, as projected by NBC News so far, shows that most are no stranger to politics.

    Of the incoming members in the upper chamber, there are:

    • Two state attorneys general (Ayotte in New Hampshire and Blumenthal in Connecticut),
    • At least four lawmakers who have served in the House (Blunt in Missouri, Portman in Ohio, Boozman in Arkansas, and Moran in Kansas)
    • Two lawmakers who have served as governor (Manchin in West Virginia and Hoeven in North Dakota)

    There will be at least one more congressman added to the list. Both candidates in the Pennsylvania Senate race, which has not yet been called, served in Congress.

    In addition:

    • Incoming Democrat Chris Coons has served as a county executive in Delaware since 2005.
    • Florida's Marco Rubio served in the state House since 2000, taking the post of Speaker from 2006 to 2008.
    • Utah's Mike Lee, a former Supreme Court clerk, is the son of a former U.S. Solicitor General.
  • Pa. Senate race still too close to call

    From the NBC political team
    The hard-fought Pennsylvania Senate contest between former GOP Rep. Pat Toomey and Democrat Rep. Joe Sestak remains separated by less than a percentage point.

    With about 82 percent of the vote recorded, Sestak trails Toomey by about 30,000 votes.

    About 40 percent of the vote in Montgomery County — in the Philadelphia suburbs — has not yet been counted. Sestak must perform well in the city's collar counties — where voter registration is about equally divided between Republicans and Democrats — to pull out the win.

    (See the latest results.)

  • Palin's 'Mama Grizzly' governors win


    All three of Sarah Palin’s “Mama Grizzlies” won their gubernatorial races: Susana Martinez (R-NM), Mary Fallin (R-OK), and Nikki Haley (R-SC).

    These females also make history of their own — each becoming the first female governor of their state. And, the victories by Martinez and Haley mark the first female governors of color in the nation. Martinez is Hispanic and Haley is the daughter of Indian immigrants.

    A record number of women (10) are their party’s nominee for governor this year. Diane Denish (D-NM) and Jari Askins (D-OK) have already lost in their woman vs. woman races. Only four contests remain tonight for female candidates in Arizona, California, Florida, and Maine.

  • Nikki Haley wins narrow victory in S.C.

    From NBC's political unit
    After winning the South Carolina Republican gubernatorial primary, Nikki Haley was hailed as an emerging rock star in the GOP. But first, she faced what became an unexpectedly close race against Democratic nominee Vincent Sheheen.

    NBC News now projects Haley the winner of the governorship.

    With about 85 percent of the vote reported, Haley led by five points.
    (AP Photo/David Goldman)

  • Feingold defeated in Wisconsin

    From the NBC News political unit
    NBC News projects that incumbent Democrat Russ Feingold has lost his bid for re-election to the Senate.

    Republican Ron Johnson, a businessman, defeated the liberal senator from Wisconsin in what became an unexpectedly tight challenge for Feingold.

    Feingold was first elected in 1992.

  • Murkowski camp awaits results

    From NBC's Adam Verdugo
    Here's some guidance from on the ground in the unpredictable three-way Alaska Senate race.

    Incumbent and write-in candidate Lisa Murkowski's campaign will only make remarks when they "know something," per an aide.

    Their best guess on timing? Between 2 a.m. ET and 3 a.m. ET.

    Murkowski has prepared three speeches, depending on the outcome.

    One was described as a "clear outcome" speech that Murkowski will give if the "write-in" option definitely receives enough votes to trigger a count of the ballots.

    She has also prepared a speech for an "unclear outcome" — if the vote tally is below that threshhold.

    The third option is a "concession speech," which a Republican aide said was very unlikely tonight.

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