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  • GOP to create freshman leader position

    NBC's Luke Russert reports that the new GOP Leadership Team will include a position for a member of the freshman class, according to a GOP aide. Only freshmen will vote on the position, and it was created with the idea of making sure the new diverse and dynamic class of Republican members had a seat at the leadership table.

    Sources tell NBC News that Rep.-Elect Kristi Noem (R-SD) has indicated that she has a strong interest in running. Noem, a Tea Party favorite, is seen by party insiders as a rising star. In the South Dakota House, Noem was an assistant majority leader and last Tuesday knocked off Democratic incumbent Stephanie Herseth Sandlin 48%-46%.

    Republicans won 63 formerly Democratic-held House seats and currently lead in five others that have not yet been called. And there were 19 20 other Republican open seats that the GOP retained for a grand total of potentially 87 88 Republican freshmen. If the current result in NY-25 holds, there would be at least 41 Tea Party-backed members of the freshman class.

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  • Coons, Manchin to be sworn in next week; Kirk after Thanksgiving


    The "special elections" held on Nov. 2nd will allow three senators-elect to sworn in this month, before the new Congress convenes in January. Democrats Chris Coons of Delaware and Joe Manchin of West Virginia will be sworn-in on Monday (Nov. 15) when the Senate returns for its lame-duck session.

    Coons will take VP Joe Biden's old seat, and Manchin will hold the seat of former Sen. Robert Byrd, who died last summer.

    But Illinois Sen.-elect Mark Kirk, a Republican who won President Barack Obama's seat, will follow two weeks later. Why? The procedures for filling the president's seat were laid out by a federal judge in Chicago. Under those rules, Kirk can't get his election certificate until Nov. 23 or 24.

    Because the Senate is expected to be in its Thanksgiving recess period, Kirk isn't excepted to sworn in until the following Monday, Nov. 29. Sen. Roland Burris will continue to fill Obama's seat until then.

    Even though most of the new senators-elect will not officially start until the new Congress convenes in January, all of them are expected in town next week for orientation and elections of party leadership.

  • Foley concedes in CT GOV race

    The AP with the breaking news that Tom Foley (R) conceded to Dan Malloy (D) in Connecticut's gubernatorial race:

    Tom Foley, the Republican candidate for governor of Connecticut, has conceded the close race despite questions about the election process. Foley said on Monday that his legal advisors determined that further challenges would not change the outcome. His announcement comes as Connecticut Republicans seek both state and federal investigations into how the election was handled last week in Bridgeport.

  • Guidance on Alaska's undecided Senate race

    According to Gail Fenumiai, director of Alaska's Division of Elections, counting of the "write-in" ballots will start on Wednesday, Nov. 10 at 9:00 am (Alaska time) in Juneau. The first day of counting will conclude around 5:00 pm local. At that point they will evaluate how far they've gotten and adjust hours accordingly.

    They will be working on Veteran's Day and the weekend.

    There will be 15 counting teams of two; each candidate and party is allowed one observer per team.

  • The uncalled House races: GOP leads in five of nine

    There are nine House races that have still not yet been called, and a few are almost certainly headed for recounts. All the seats are currently held by Democrats. Republicans lead in five. The GOP made historic gains of 60 seats on Election Night -- the most in a midterm since World War Two. That number could jump to somewhere in the neighborhood of 65 seats if current tallies hold.

    Here's the latest round of local news clips for each race:

    CA-11: Democrat Jerry McNerney is up 548 votes, but tens of thousands of mail-in and provisional ballots are still to be counted. The Stockton Record: "McNerney's razor-thin margin is subject to change and he could ultimately lose to Republican challenger David Harmer. Of the 172,000-plus votes cast in a district stretching across four counties, McNerney initially had a 121-vote edge, a margin well south of 1 percentage point. Nobody is calling for a recount, yet. That's because there are tens of thousands of ballots yet to be counted, most of them mail-in ballots. In addition, there are thousands of provisional ballots, votes cast in cases such as when a first-time voter cannot provide identification." The San Jose Mercury-News: "Democratic Rep. Jerry McNerney inched his way toward re-election as updated counts Friday showed him with a slim 548-vote lead over opponent and GOP nominee David Harmer. But the outcome is still a long way from settled. The gap represents a tiny 0.3 percentage points of the 176,108 votes counted in the 11th Congressional District, which remains one of nine House races nationwide still too close to call. The four county elections offices within the 11th District are plowing through the uncounted mail-in and provisional ballots but thousands of votes remain to be processed."

    CA-20: Andy Vidak (R), a cherry farms, leads incumbent Jim Costa (D) by 648 votes. The Fresno Bee: "After Tuesday's election, many political watchers believed that absentee and provisional ballots left to be counted in Fresno and Kern counties, where Costa beat Vidak overwhelmingly, would go to the incumbent. In Kings County, where Vidak demolished Costa, few ballots remain uncounted. ... About 50,000 to 70,000 absentee and provisional ballots still must be counted in Fresno County, Clerk Victor Salazar said Friday. ... Counties have until Nov. 30 to certify election results. The Fresno County elections office will update vote counts each Wednesday and Friday until the election is certified."

    IL-8: Republican Joe Walsh leads by 365 votes over incumbent Melissa Bean (D). Bean picked up some votes from absentee ballots in Cook County. The Chicago Tribune: "Democratic Rep. Melissa Bean continued to chip away at Republican challenger Joe Walsh's lead during absentee vote counting Friday, with her spokesman saying she could make further gains, even in areas Walsh dominated on election night. Bean picked up 15 more votes on Walsh, trimming his lead in the 8th District to 350 votes out of more than 200,000 cast. Walsh could take a healthy boost from absentee ballots in Lake and McHenry counties if those votes mirror Election Day tallies when they are added to the total on Nov. 16, the last day absentee ballots can be received. ... Hundreds of ballots remain unaccounted for in Cook County, while Lake County will add more than 500 votes to the total and McHenry County will likely add a few dozen more, according to election authorities. Bean's gains have come from absentee vote counting in Cook County, where valid absentee ballots will continue to be counted in coming days."

    KY-6: County officials affirmed Ben Chandler's (D) lead. The Lexington Herald-Leader: "U.S. Rep. Ben Chandler, D-Versailles, leads Republican Andy Barr by 649 votes, according to official vote totals from all 16 counties in the 6th Congressional District. The last of the county totals, which have been certified by county clerks but have not yet been given the final stamp of approval by the Kentucky Board of Elections, were submitted to the secretary of state's office Friday. The official count is Chandler with 119,812 votes and Barr with 119,163 votes, said Les Fugate, spokesman for the secretary of state." A recanvass will take place Nov. 12. "The state Board of Elections is scheduled to certify the vote Nov. 22."

    NY-1 (Suffolk County, Long Island): After a voting machine recanvass, Randy Altschuler (R) has taken over the lead from incumbent Tim Bishop (D). "Altschuler leads Bishop, a Democrat, by about 400 votes, both campaigns said, citing data from the Suffolk County Board of Elections. That represents a swing of almost 4,000 votes because Bishop was ahead by 3,461 earlier this week," Newsday (Long Island) reports.

    NY-25: Tea Party-backed Ann Marie Buerkle (R) leads Dann Maffei (D) by 684 votes. The Syracuse Post-Standard: "A routine audit and recanvassing will begin next week in all four counties before absentee and provisional ballots are opened. Election officials say it could be two weeks or more before a winner is determined."

    TX-27: Solomon Ortiz (D) trails by 799 792 votes with all the votes in. He's going to request a recount. KRGV-TV: "Ortiz says there were a number of irregularities in the election. The incumbent Democrat is asking for a manual recount of the votes." AP: "Under Texas rules, he'll have to pay for the re-count unless it affects the election's final outcome." The Corpus Christi Caller: "U.S. Rep. Solomon P. Ortiz will not have the votes necessary to overtake Congressman-elect Blake Farenthold after all provisional and overseas ballots are counted in the 27th District. As many as 736 ballots remain uncounted." [UPDATE: The lead is now 792.]

    VA-11: Gerry Connolly (D) claimed victory for a narrow win. By the way, he was hospitalized for an undisclosed condition. "As of Friday afternoon, Connolly led Oakton businessman Keith Fimian (R) by 968 votes, according to the Virginia State Board of Elections site. Connolly led by 487 votes Tuesday night, and that number steadily grew as the week progressed and more ballots were counted," the Washington Post reports, adding, "As his reelection race remained unresolved, Connolly was hospitalized for a condition his office would not disclose. 'Congressman Connolly visited his doctor for a checkup earlier this week, and his doctor recommended he be hospitalized for further testing,' [Campaign Manager James] Walkinshaw said. 'The details are a private matter, but he is doing well and will be heading home this weekend. He expects to be back to work for the people of Northern Virginia on Monday.'"

    WA-2: Rick Larsen (D) leads by 3,841 votes, a slight loss of votes from 4,100 after counting in Snohomish County. The (Everett) Herald: "Democratic U.S. Rep. Rick Larsen seems almost certain of re-election Saturday night after another tally of ballots gave him his largest lead yet over Republican challenger John Koster."

  • Pelosi, seven other Democrats, improved their margins of victory

    The University of Minnesota's Smart Politics blog finds "just eight Democratic incumbents won by a larger victory margin during the Republican landslide of 2010 than during the Democratic wave of 2008 - including lightning rod (and outgoing) House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who improved by the second largest margin out of the entire Democratic caucus."

    The "Magnificent Eight," as Smart Politics calls them: Bob Brady (PA-1), Pelosi (CA-8), Nydia Velazquez (NY-12), Chellie Pingree (ME-1), Jim Himes (CT-4), David Scott (GA-13), Chaka Fattah (PA-2), and Lucille Roybal-Allard (CA-24).

  • First Thoughts: Obama in defeat

    Obama in “60 Minutes” interview admits he didn’t compromise enough with Republicans… Obama talks jobs and Pakistan in India… Back to Bush… What Pelosi DIDN'T say on Friday: How she plans to lead the Dems back to a majority in ’12… Hoyer vs. Clyburn? Or is there a way out?... Decision day for Tom Foley… Minnesota -- Land of 1,000 Recounts... And the uncalled House races.


    *** Obama in defeat: To us, the most striking part of President Obama’s “60 Minutes” interview was his admission that that he and his administration didn’t compromise and work with the Republicans. It was an admission of defeat. “In terms of setting the tone and how this town operates, we just didn't pay enough attention to some of the things that we had talked about,” he said. “And, you know I'm paying a political price for that.” Yet while Obama and the Democrats didn’t get results in votes, they did get results in policy. After all, if you’re getting Ben Nelson to support a piece of legislation, that means that 5-10 Senate Republicans -- at least in their gut -- could have accepted it. What happened to the president was that he was out-maneuvered by the Senate GOP, and he did a poor job of trying to find five to 10 Republicans to support his legislation. Maybe that's a White House problem; maybe it was a Senate problem; maybe it was the burden of 59, then 60 seats, then 59 seats. But what is amazing is how so easily the president let narratives -- which the White House press shop fights BEHIND the scenes -- get treated as the story. http://bit.ly/bCBwGL

    *** Obama abroad: On “TODAY,” NBC’s Savannah Guthrie wrapped up Obama’s day in India, including a news conference the president conducted with India’s prime minister. “Mindful of the audience watching from home worried about jobs outsourced to India, the president went out of his way to emphasize deals between U.S. and Indian companies are creating American jobs. "I want to be able to say to the American people, 'These aren't just them taking their jobs... I want to be able to say, 'They just created 50,000 jobs." But as much as the U.S. focus of the trip is about jobs, the real purpose has everything to do about Pakistan. And that was summed in an Indian student’s critical question to Obama about the U.S. support of Pakistan. Everything about the president's outreach to India since he took office is about focusing on trying to create some sort of détente (if nothing else) between Pakistan and India.

    *** Back to Bush: Republicans won back control of the House, Democrats are licking their wounds, and we’re back … to talking about George W. Bush. In an interview with NBC’s Matt Lauer, a portion of which aired on “TODAY” this morning, Bush talked about his decision not to pardon Scooter Libby and how that affected (and didn’t affect) his relationship with his vice president, Dick Cheney. “Scooter's a loyal American who worked for Vice President Cheney who got caught up in this Valerie Plame case and was indicted and convicted. And I chose to commute his sentence," Bush said. "I felt he had paid enough of a penalty.” More: Cheney “wanted me to pardon him, and this is a decision that was really the last decision of the presidency, really. And I chose to let the jury verdict stand, after some serious deliberation. And the vice president was angry.” Bush later told Lauer that his relationship with Cheney has recovered. The entire Bush-Lauer interview will air on NBC at 8:00 pm ET.

    *** Pelosi’s big omission: The most underreported part of Nancy Pelosi decision on Friday to run for minority leader: The fact that her announcement (both her Tweet and her full statement) NEVER once mentioned how she plans to lead the House Democrats back to the majority. It was about protecting what had been created (health care, and Wall Street reform), not about how Democrats regain power. We know that Pelosi racked up a considerable legislative record over the past two years, and we also know that she and her team were able to win control in ’06. But how does she fix her public image? In our NBC/WSJ poll, her fav/unfav rating was 24%-50% (and among indies, it’s 8%-61%). Her decision on Friday was akin to if Newt Gingrich held on to power after ’98. By the way, Gingrich’s fav/unfav in the Oct. 1998 NBC/WSJ poll was 27%-46% (and 17%-52% among indies). Will House Democrats ask for more details from Pelosi on her plan to get the majority back, or her plan to fix her own image?

    *** Hoyer vs. Clyburn: Pelosi’s decision also triggered a game of musical chairs inside the Dem leadership, because there’s one less leadership position in the minority. And right now, there’s a battle between current No. 2 Steny Hoyer (the House Dems’ bridge to more conservative Democrats) and the current No. 3 Jim Clyburn (the House Dems’ highest-ranking African American) to be minority whip. On “Morning Joe,” Clyburn called himself the underdog in this race, which will take place next week. But the Washington Post notes that there’s a potential compromise: “One possibility is the everyone-move-down-a-slot compromise. That would mean that Hoyer would become minority whip and Clyburn would become caucus chairman, the No. 3 post in the minority, a job he held in 2006.” Don't be surprised if there's movement on this today; Both Hoyer and Clyburn are good vote-counters.

    *** Decision Day for Foley: The Hartford Courant reports that GOP nominee Tom Foley, who trailed Democrat Dan Malloy by 5,637 votes in the final count in Connecticut’s gubernatorial race, will speak at 1:00 pm ET to announce how he’ll proceed. The paper says he has two options: One, "[p]ushing for a statewide recount, if the analysis of the results shows changes large enough to reduce the margin to within the 2,000-or-less-vote difference that triggers an automatic recount. Last week, there was a 2,000-vote swing in his favor because of erroneous recording of Torrington's votes." Two, [i]nitiating a lawsuit to seek a remedy such as a court order for a statewide recount, even if the official margin exceeds the 2,000-or-less vote threshold, if 'irregularities' are found that are serious enough to 'affect the outcome of the election.'"

    *** Land of 1,000 10,000 Recounts: But as the Minneapolis Star Tribune noted last week, a candidate who trails by more than 2,000 votes rarely wins in a recount. “Ned Foley, an election law professor at Ohio State University, said his study of recounts found they rarely change the result and then only when the election night loser is fewer than 2,000 votes short of victory.” And that applies to Minnesota’s still-undecided gubernatorial contest, which Mark Dayton (D) leads Tom Emmer (R) by nearly 9,000 votes. While that margin triggers a recount under the state’s law, it’s worth reminding everyone that the initial count two years ago had Norm Coleman (R) leading Al Franken (D) by only 762 votes.

    *** The uncalled House races: There are still nine uncalled House races. Republicans now lead in five of those races. The GOP is currently +60 in the House after Tuesday, and could jump to around +65. Here are some updates since Friday: In AZ-8, Gabrielle Giffords (D) was declared the winner over Tea Party-backed Jesse Kelly. And a new race came up for grabs: NY-1 (Suffolk County, Long Island), after a voting-machine recanvass. Randy Altschuler (R) has taken over the lead from incumbent Tim Bishop (D). "Altschuler leads Bishop, a Democrat, by about 400 votes, both campaigns said, citing data from the Suffolk County Board of Elections. That represents a swing of almost 4,000 votes because Bishop was ahead by 3,461 earlier this week," Newsday (Long Island) reports. The other uncalled races: CA-20, NY-25, IL-8, TX-27, CA-11, KY-6, VA-11, WA-2.

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  • Obama agenda: Ready to work, but not ready to compromise

    The New York Daily News: President Obama is not ready to cave in to Republican demands that Bush-era tax cuts must be extended to wealthy Americans. Obama told "60 Minutes" that he is ready to work with Republicans on the hotly debated issue, but he stopped short of saying he is ready to compromise with the GOP.”

    “President Obama warily offered up a can't-we-all-get-along prescription Sunday for the tense relationship between India and Pakistan,” the New York Daily News writes. Pressed by Indian students at a town hall in Mumbai, Obama fended off questions about why the U.S. has refused to declare Pakistan a ‘terrorist state.’”

    Here’s Savannah Guthrie’s TODAY spot on the president’s trip to India.

    NPR reports that some Democrats fear the White House is too insular. “Knowing what the president would do means understanding what goes on in the president's head, which cannot be expected of outsiders. But an inner circle that understands the president's internal monologue may also share his blind spots. As one very plugged in and slightly exasperated Democratic outsider put it, this president is ‘heavily enabled.’ Many prominent Democrats outside of the White House share this concern, but most would not speak on the record for fear of burning bridges. Particularly after a midterm that Obama described as a ‘shellacking,’ many believe that the White House needs new voices and new ideas. The perception is that everyone in the president's inner circle is on the same page — which is not necessarily a good thing.”

    Here are the people who’ve come and gone.

  • Congress: Dilemmas all around

    The Boston Globe notes the conundrum the GOP faces now that it controls the House: “Newly empowered Republicans, energized by an antigovernment groundswell that helped them seize control of the House, are making pledges that thrill mainstream conservatives and Tea Partiers alike: They will slash deficits and cut government down to size… Politically, without a majority in the Senate, their leverage to win spending reductions will be limited to things like threatening government shutdowns, and refusing to raise the nation’s debt limit.”

    Democrats have their own problems: “Rather than spending the days after Tuesday’s midterms regrouping, Members have been stuck fighting over who among them should lead in the minority,” Roll Call writes.

    “Sen. Charles Schumer declined a request by Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) to return as chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee for the 2012 cycle, the New York Democrat said Sunday,” Roll Call writes.

  • GOP watch: A ‘missed opportunity’

    “New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie says the Senate race in Delaware was ‘a missed opportunity’ for his fellow Republicans to pick up the seat long held by Democrat Joe Biden,” the AP writes of Christie’s appearance on NBC’s Meet the Press. Christie also left open the possibility of a 2016 run, but again shut the door on one in 2012.

    Tea Party superstar Rand Paul bucked the GOP leadership on Sunday by pushing drastic budget-cutting proposals, including a 10% pay slash for federal workers,” the New York Daily News writes. “Paul, the Republican senator-elect from Kentucky, said on ABC's "This Week" that Social Security, Medicare and defense should also be ‘on the table.’”

    Things that make you go, hmm… why is Sarah Palin giving an economic policy speech? “We shouldn’t be playing around with inflation. It’s not for nothing Reagan called it ‘as violent as a mugger, as frightening as an armed robber, and as deadly as a hit man.’ The Fed’s pump priming addiction has got our small businesses running scared, and our allies worried.”

    Liberal economist Paul Krugman disagrees and thinks the Fed should do more.

    “Rep. Eric Cantor of Virginia, who is poised to become House majority leader in January, said on Fox News Sunday that Pelosi's decision to stay in the leadership as Democratic leader ‘doesn't make sense,” USA Today writes. "’This is the woman who...puts ideology first,’ Cantor said. ‘This says to voters, 'we're not listening to you.'” And Cantor joined to no compromise club.

    “Resurgent Republicans rallied yesterday behind an agenda based on unwavering opposition to President Obama and federal spending, laying the groundwork for gridlock until their 2012 goal: a new president, a ‘better Senate,’ and ridding the country of the new health care law,” the AP’s Elliott writes.

  • Making sense of the midterms

    It could have been worse… Democratic Governors Association executive director Nathan Daschle pens this memo: “[D]espite a historically unfavorable environment and being outspent 2-to-1 by the RGA, the DGA successfully flipped five governorships from Republican to Democratic and kept the GOP’s net gain well below the historic average. When the final results are tallied – with Mark Dayton projected to win Minnesota – the RGA will have a net gain of five governorships.”

    “In fact, at the end of the day, in the 22 races in which both committees spent heavily (more than $500K), the DGA won 11 races, the RGA won 10, and an independent won one.”

    The AP summed up the Democratic and Republican parties’ post-midterm outlooks, as articulated on yesterday’s Sunday shows: “Republicans said they were willing to work with President Barack Obama but also signaled it would be only on their terms. With control of the White House and the Senate, Democrats showed no sign they were conceding the final two years of Obama's term to Republican lawmakers who claimed the majority in the House.”


    “A look at the electoral map shows that, outside selected parts of the Southwest, few Republican candidates this year paid a price for adopting a hard-line immigration stance,” the L.A. Times writes.

    CALIFORNIA: “While the rest of the nation went red in Tuesday's midterm elections, California emerged even bluer. What's going on?” the San Francisco Chronicle asks. “The state's rising numbers of new voters - newly minted immigrant voters, minorities and voters between the ages of 18 and 29 - are overwhelmingly Democratic in their preferences.”

    MISSOURI: “In 2006, Missouri was the very picture of a "purple" state, with an electoral map that had dense pockets of blue Democrat voters among swaths of red Republicans,” the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes. “Four years later, the state has a whole new color scheme. Judging by Tuesday's U.S. Senate election — which saw Republican U.S. Rep. Roy Blunt overpower Democrat Robin Carnahan — the new political landscape in Missouri overwhelmingly favors the GOP.” (hat tip: Ben Smith)

    NEW YORK: The New York Times profiles Andrew Cuomo: “Mr. Cuomo’s record as a manager, though, shows that not everyone can thrive under his style: forceful, focused, insistent on results, and disinclined to entertain dissent. That style, of course, has implications for more than the members of his emerging administration. Mr. Cuomo may think little of Albany’s power players, but he will still have to work with them. Mr. Cuomo, for sure, has attracted a loyal circle of advisers who have remained with him for decades. They feel exhilarated by his intensity. But he has also alienated subordinates, who call his demands unrealistic, his approach overbearing and his intolerance for disagreement dispiriting.”

  • Inside the Boiler Room - Biggest Midterm Surprises

    Mark Murray and Domenico Montanaro recap the 2010 midterm election. What did they consider the biggest surprises this cycle? Plus, with many people already looking to the next election, Mark and Domenico preview what 2012 may bring.

    Don't forget to submit questions for the Boiler Room segments next week. Write questions below, post them on our Facebook page, or tweet it, to @NBCFirstRead or @mmurraypolitics or @DomenicoNBC.

    Video was shot and edited by Alexandra Moe.

  • Pelosi: 'I am running for Dem leader'

    From NBC's Shawna Thomas
    Nancy Pelosi just tweeted -- and her press office confirms -- that she will run in the new Congress to be the House Democratic leader.

    "Driven by the urgency of creating jobs & protecting #hcr, #wsr, Social Security & Medicare, I am running for Dem Leader," the tweet reads.

    *** UPDATE *** Pelosi's office just released the letter that she sent to her Democratic colleagues this afternoon announcing that she will run for the post of House minority leader. An excerpt:

    "Our work is far from finished. As a result of Tuesday's election, the role of Democrats in the 112th Congress will change, but our commitment to serving the American people will not. We have no intention of allowing our great achievements to be rolled back. It is my hope that we can work in a bipartisan way to create jobs and strengthen the middle class

    "Many of our colleagues have called with their recommendations on how to continue our fight for the middle class, and have encouraged me to run for House Democratic Leader. Based on those discussions, and driven by the urgency of protecting health care reform, Wall Street reform, and Social Security and Medicare, I have decided to run."

    House Speakers often step aside after losing their party loses the majority. The last speaker to stay on as minority leader was Republican Joe Martin in 1955, according to msnbc.com's Tom Curry.

    *** UPDATE TWO *** NBC's Mark Murray writes that the most recent NBC/WSJ poll (conducted Oct. 28-30), showed Pelosi with a 24% positive rating and a 50% negative rating. Among independents, her positive/negative score was 8%-61%.

  • The case against Pelosi


    If Nancy Pelosi does indeed decide to leave the Democratic leadership, it’s expected that she’ll retire from Congress. Current Majority Leader Steny Hoyer would become minority leader. Jim Clyburn would stay on as minority whip and the Democratic caucus chairman would fall to John Larson, Chris Van Hollen, or Xavier Becerra.

    This is the case for Nancy Pelosi to move on, per conversations with Democratic aides and some Democratic members who believe she should leave the leadership.

    1. Going forward, Pelosi is -- pick your word -- radioactive, toxic, or damaged goods. Last Tuesday’s election results were a total repudiation of her policies and style. The buck has to stop somewhere. Her unpopularity around the country -- and especially among independents -- would be a drag on the party heading into 2012 and a very important presidential election. Not only would she kill any chances of Democrats retaking the House, but she also would hurt President Obama’s ability to work with the GOP over the next two years. The Obama-Pelosi branding hurt many candidates in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia -- it’s not something the White House nor Democrats running in conservative leaning districts need again.

    2. Pelosi staying will severely divide the party. Moderates like Heath Shuler (D-NC) and even liberals like John Yarmuth (D-KY) have said that she’s not the best person to “take the party forward.” Many rank-and-file members are of this mindset. Democrats need to be united when they are in the minority, much like the GOP was over the last two years. A House Democratic civil war would be disastrous.

    3. With Pelosi as minority leader, it could prove difficult for the party to recruit moderate candidates to challenge Republicans in conservative-leaning districts that sent Democrats to Congress in 2006 and 2008. Moderates won’t want to be associated with Pelosi and party will not be able to compete in swing districts.

    4. House Democrats desperately need a fresh voice. Pelosi has been in the Democratic leadership since 2002. Her take-no-prisoners leadership style -- while delivering on key legislation -- is not conducive to working with the GOP and improving the party’s standing going forward. People want their leaders to work to together, not be consistently combative. A new, more moderate leader like Hoyer, could make the Democratic Party seem less liberal and less polarizing -- exactly what they need right now.

    5. Pelosi can retire as the most powerful woman in the history of American politics -- as of the most powerful speakers of all time. For her to go into the minority could only tarnish her legacy. Why put herself through the strains of being -- once again -- the Democratic minority leader?

  • The case for Pelosi to remain House Dem leader


    If Nancy Pelosi wants to remain House Democratic leader, there will be a game of musical chairs in the leadership: Jim Clyburn (D-SC), the Dems' whip, has indicated that he would like to stay in the leadership. Therefore, current No. 2 Steny Hoyer, who is seen as more moderate, would either have to challenge Clyburn (not ideal for the party), be relegated to a lesser position, or simply leave leadership. Under the latter scenario, the No. 3 position of caucus chairman would go to Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) or Xavier Beccarra (D-CA). In essence, Pelosi could eliminate her chief rival within the Democratic Leadership and be surrounded by dutiful surrogates.

    The following case for Pelosi to remain as House leader comes after long conversations with senior Democratic aides who believe Pelosi will stay on as minority leader of the House Democratic Caucus. (Note: We'll run the case against Pelosi in a following dispatch.)

    1. Pelosi is the best fundraiser for the House Democrats outside of President Obama and President Clinton. She has raised more money than any of her colleagues and built a diverse fundraising network of both large and small donors. Her efforts in collecting donations have allowed Democrats to compete in numerous conservative-leaning districts from 2006 to present day. Her fundraising network just couldn’t be passed over to Hoyer. If she leaves, the Democrats will leave a lot of money on the table.

    2. Pelosi, along with Rahm Emanuel, is seen by many within the party as the mastermind behind the 2006 and 2008 election strategy that gave Democrats their largest House gains in over a decade. Many feel she could rebound in 2012 and deliver the 20-plus seats needed to retake the majority in the House after the GOP makes unpopular spending cuts such as unemployment insurance.

    3. Under Pelosi, the Democrats were actually able to pass historic legislation that had eluded them for years. Pelosi had the clout to tell liberals that the public option would die in the health-care bill, and the ability to tell the pro-choice caucus not to be worried about abortion rights being stripped away in the final bill. She’s the best vote-getter the party has, and the best at bringing many diverse groups of people together. If she leaves, they splintering within the party becomes too great and hurts it going forward into 2012.

    4. Many liberals and progressives do not want to compromise on their principles to appease Republicans. They see no problem in doing what the GOP did over the last two years that is being the “Party of No” out of principle. If this is the direction that liberals and progressives want to go, Pelosi is a much better leader than Hoyer. There is fear that Hoyer would be too accommodating to the GOP and to K Street influence.

    5. Why should Pelosi be the only leader to fall on the sword after the disastrous results for Democrats on Tuesday? The president is not shaking up his team. Harry Reid will return to the Senate, a Senate that couldn’t pass many House bills that liberals and progressives feel could have helped their election prospects. And Pelosi has worked harder than any other Democrat leader and earned the right to leave on her own terms. In no way does she need to placate moderates by stepping down.

    6. Finally, part of Pelosi wanting to stay is personal. She and many within in her caucus feel that she’s the best person at the table for House Democrats. While the media play up the need for her to leave -- as do some self-serving moderates -- eventually there is no better voice to lead an aggressive minority party that will put the GOP on the record as being against the middle class and being pro-big businesses and the wealthy.

  • First Thoughts: What we learned

    Eleven things we learned after the midterms… First Read’s initial 2012 battleground map… Economy adds 151,000 jobs in October; unemployment rate stays at 9.6%... Obama: It’s the communication, stupid… Murray wins in WA… Hartford Courant says it appears Malloy wins in CT… And the nine uncalled House races.


    *** What we learned after the midterms: After some reflection -- and rest -- it's time to list what we learned after Tuesday's midterm elections:
    -- The Democrats and Team Obama currently have a Big 10 problem: While Obama won every Big 10 state in '08 (even one electoral vote in the Big 10's newest member, Nebraska), Democrats lost almost every major contest in them on Tuesday, and the two exceptions were Illinois governor (which was decided yesterday) and Minnesota governor (which looks headed for a recount, with the Dem in the lead). According to the exit polls, 54% in the Midwest voted Republican, and 44% voted Democrat.
    -- Democrats have a bigger problem with the middle than with the left: Per the exits, the independent vote broke 56%-38% for the GOP. What’s more, the self-described moderate vote broke just 55%-42% for Democrats, down from 61%-37% in ’08 and 60%-38% in ’06. And for the notion that liberals didn’t turn out, the exits show that 20% of the midterm electorate was liberal, which was identical to ’06 but down two points from ’08.
    -- The GOP was unable to make substantial gains on the coasts: The real Democratic firewall existed -- and held up -- in the East and West. The most recent example: The Washington Senate race, which was decided for incumbent Patty Murray (D) last night.
    -- Candidates who ran away from health care Obama and the Dem agenda didn’t have a great record: Bobby Bright (AL), Travis Childers (MS), Lincoln Davis (TN), Chet Edwards (TX), Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin (SD), Frank Kratovil (MD), John Marshall (GA), Walt Minnick (ID), Glenn Nye (VA), and Harry Teague (NM) all lost.
    -- Candidates from swing or conservative districts who ran to the left didn’t have a great record, either: See Alan Grayson (FL) and Tom Perriello (VA).
    -- Rich candidates don’t make winning candidates: Meg Whitman, Carly Fiorina, and Linda McMahon all lost. The exception: Rick Scott, and he won the election but arguably lost the campaign narrative, given he won with upside-down personal numbers.
    -- The GOP now has more diversity: Say hello to Brian Sandoval, Susana Martinez, Marco Rubio, Allen West, and Tim Scott. Don't discount this: A party that didn’t have a 21st Century America bench now has one.
    -- Tea Party statewide candidates didn’t fare well in blue or purple states: Sharron Angle (Nevada), Christine O’Donnell (Delaware), and Ken Buck (Colorado). The Tea Party can have an impact in primaries and survive in red state general elections (see: Paul, Rand).
    -- There was no real mandate on health care: Per the national exits, 48% said the health-care law should be repealed, while a combined 47% said it should be left alone or expanded.
    -- Palin’s endorsed candidates had a mixed record: Some won (Nikki Haley, Susana Martinez), while others lost (Christine O’Donnell, Sharron Angle, probably Joe Miller). See our Tea Party nugget.
    -- Dems had a turnout problem: As we noted on Wednesday, the Democratic vote in the Pennsylvania, Missouri, and Ohio Senate races was down from the levels in ’06.

    *** First Read’s 2012 map: As we begin turning our attention to the 2012 presidential contest, we debut our initial presidential battleground map. Note: This is based on where we believe things will be a year from now, with the GOP candidates headed into home stretch in IA. It essentially combines what we know from '04, '06, '08 and '10, and factors it ALL in. Here's another way to look at this: The lean Dem states are winnable by a Republican if things break, say, 53%-47% nationally for the nominee. And the lean GOP states are winnable by a Democrat if things break, well, 53%-47% nationally for the president. And you can guarantee BOTH parties will play in every lean and toss-up state so the BIG battleground for 2012 begins with 17 states. We fully expect a David Plouffe to attempt to argue GA and AZ should be in lean. And we expect a GOP strategist to argue they can put one EV in ME and, say, OR in play. But here you go…

    Solid Dem: DE, HI, MD, MA, NY, RI, VT
    Likely Dem: CA, CT, IL, ME, WA, OR
    Lean Dem: IA, MI, MN, NJ, PA
    Toss-up: CO, FL, NV, NH, NM, OH, VA, WI
    Lean GOP: MO, MT, NE (one EV), NC,
    Likely GOP: AL, AR, AZ, GA, IN, LA, MS, NE (four EVs), ND, SC, SD, TX
    DC Solid GOP: AK, ID, KS, KY, OK, TN, UT, WV, WY

    *** Economy adds 151,000 jobs: Of course, our 2012 map will depend on the monthly jobs reports between now and then. Here’s the latest jobs report, per the AP: “Economy adds 151,000 jobs, most in 5 months; unemployment rate remains 9.6%.” More: “Private employers hired 159,000 workers, while governments at all levels shed only 8,000 jobs.” It almost adds insult to injury for the White House and Democrats that the best jobs report in five months comes the Friday AFTER the election, instead of the Friday BEFORE the election.

    *** It’s the communication, stupid: CBS has released this excerpt of President’s Obama interview that will appear on “60 Minutes” this Sunday: “I think that, over the course of two years we were so busy and so focused on getting a bunch of stuff done that, we stopped paying attention to the fact that leadership isn't just legislation. That it's a matter of persuading people. And giving them confidence and bringing them together. And setting a tone… Making an argument that people can understand. I think that we haven't always been successful at that. And I take personal responsibility for that. And it's something that I've got to examine carefully … as I go forward." This is something the White House believes deep down; they do not believe any of their policies were wrong, they believe they didn't connect the dots on their policies and they acknowledge many of their policies haven't produced real results.

    *** Murray wins in Washington: As mentioned above, Patty Murray won her Senate race. The Seattle Times: “Sen. Patty Murray has won a fourth term, riding a wave of strong Democratic support in King County to defeat Republican challenger Dino Rossi. Rossi conceded at about 6 p.m., calling Murray to congratulate her, according to a statement released by his campaign.”

    *** Less confusion in Connecticut? Breaking news from the Hartford Courant: "Democrat Dannel Malloy appears to have gained enough votes in Bridgeport to win the race for governor. Bridgeport Mayor Bill Finch announced the totals at a press conference around 6:20 a.m., after elections workers there tallied votes through the night. The Bridgeport vote went for Malloy, with 17,800 votes to Republican Tom Foley's 4,075 votes. That margin of 13,725 appears to be enough to overcome the 8,409-vote lead that Foley held before the Bridgeport votes were counted. If the numbers hold up, Malloy will have won the race by a margin of 5,316."

    *** The uncalled House races: Republicans are still at +60 and could get to about +64. There are nine races not yet called. All are held by Democrats. Republicans lead in four of them. Bob Etheridge (D-NC-2) still has not yet conceded, though his race has been called. Some changes since yesterday: Rep. Raul Grijalva (D) is now off this list. His race was called, and he survived 49%-45%. In WA-2, another 9% of the vote came in, and Rick Larsen (D) increased his lead by about 1,000 votes. In AZ-8, Gabrielle Giffords (D) increased her lead. In CA-11, Jerry McNerney (D) picked up 13 more votes for a narrow lead of 134 votes -- the closest race left.

    -- CA-20: 100% in; Vidak (R) up 51-49 or 1,823 votes of 63K
    -- NY-25: 100% in; 50-50, Buerkle (R) up 659 votes of 189K
    -- IL-8: 100% in Walsh (R) up 49-48 or 559 votes of 194K
    -- TX-27: 100% in; Farenthold (R) up 48-47, or 799 votes of 101K
    -- CA-11: 100% in; 47-47 McNerney (D) up by just 134 votes of 164K
    -- KY-6: 100% in; 50-50 Chandler (D) up 600 votes of 140K
    -- VA-11: 100% in; 49-49 Connolly (D) up 920 votes out of 222K
    -- WA-2: 80% in; 50-50 Larsen (D) up 1,451 out of 220K
    -- AZ-8: 100% in; Giffords (D) up 49-47, or 3,055 votes of 239K

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  • Obama agenda: A failure to sell

    “After a suffering a ‘shellacking’ in the midterm elections, President Obama acknowledges what many have seen as his chief weakness - failing to sell the importance of several legislative milestones to the American people,” CBS writes of an interview with 60 Minutes to air Sunday. Obama said: "I think that's a fair argument. I think that, over the course of two years we were so busy and so focused on getting a bunch of stuff done that, we stopped paying attention to the fact that leadership isn't just legislation. That it's a matter of persuading people. And giving them confidence and bringing them together. And setting a tone… Making an argument that people can understand. I think that we haven't always been successful at that. And I take personal responsibility for that. And it's something that I've got to examine carefully … as I go forward."

    “President Obama sought to retake the political initiative yesterday after a bruising election, inviting Republican and Democratic congressional leaders to meet with him on the economy and jobs,” the AP writes. “The White House confirmed Obama would consider extending Bush-era tax cuts even for wealthy Americans for a year or two. The Nov. 18 meeting will be closely watched, in particular, for any signs of cooperation between Obama and his two frequent Republican antagonists, John Boehner, House speaker-in-waiting, and Mitch McConnell, Senate minority leader. They will be joined by the top Democrats in Congress, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and Senate majority leader Harry Reid.”

  • Congress: Ben Nelson ‘not planning’ to switch parties

    Currently, the balance of power in the House is 239-187 with Republicans leading in four of the remaining nine races.

    Sen. Ben Nelson (D) says he has no plans to switch parties. “I’m certainly not planning to, and the answer I’ve been giving is ‘No,’” Nelson told Roll Call. He added, “Last night hasn’t made me decide one thing or another.”

    “The lingering uncertainty about whether Speaker Nancy Pelosi will stay on as Minority Leader is beginning to cause consternation among moderate Democrats who think it’s time for a leadership shake-up,” Roll Call writes.

    “Rep. Steve King promoted installing Rep. Michele Bachmann as Republican Conference chairwoman in the 112th Congress,” Roll Call writes.

    “The congressman expected to be the next House majority leader says Republican-led committees will devote more time to investigating and exposing lapses by the Obama administration and problems with its programs, including bringing critical oversight reports to the House floor for very public debates,” AP writes. Hello, Darrell Issa.

  • GOP watch: The GOP’s dilemma

    The Washington Post: “Jubilant over their landslide victory in the House and their pickup of six Senate seats, Republican leaders nevertheless face a dilemma as they debate how to exert their new authority. Their energetic conservative base is eager to thwart President Obama's every move, and if Republicans fail at doing so, they risk disappointing the supporters who turned out in vast numbers for Tuesday's midterm elections.”

    “Tea Party activists are injecting into the 2012 GOP presidential primary an element of antiestablishment volatility that could hurt Mitt Romney’s possible bid while benefiting a fast-growing crop of conservative candidates, political observers say,” the Boston Globe’s Kranish writes. Romney donated to some Tea Party activists, was the first and only potential 2012er to reach out to Sen. Jim DeMint to congratulate him, but “Romney’s decision to interject himself in a Utah primary also has hurt him among Tea Party movement activists,” the Globe writes.

    But don’t discount Romney out of hand because of the Tea Party. He will raise and spend a lot of money and could still win by process of elimination. Lots of conservatives are going to run, and if they split the vote, then there’s Romney’s path to win in places like South Carolina, for example. McCain did it in ’08, when Huckabee and Fred Thompson split the conservative vote in the Northwestern part of the state. On the other hand, Romney’s faith was an issue in 2008 for South Carolinians, and he doesn’t have the base of support with veterans that McCain did in South Carolina.

  • Making sense of the midterms

    National Journal's Ron Brownstein on the Democrats' demographic hole: "So Democrats emerge from this week confronting a huge demographic hole: their meager performance among all white voters except women with college degrees (who tend to be both more socially liberal and more receptive to activist government). And they face a huge geographic hole: a collapse in the interior states, which tend to be whiter and older than the coastal states, with fewer college graduates. After the first red-blue map entered our consciousness following the 2000 presidential race, I wrote that it was possible to drive east for three days from San Francisco without crossing a county that voted Democratic; it is now possible to do the same thing with House districts. Still strong (if somewhat diminished) on the coasts, but routed in the heartland, Democrats look like a bridge with two pillars, but no span in between."

    "Democrats don’t need to win most white voters or most interior states to compete. But they can’t get annihilated on those battlefields either, and that’s exactly what happened as the party stumbled to its historic collapse this week."

    Roll Call breaks down the House race gains by region: In New England, New Hampshire is the only GOP bright spot; Dems lost a dozen seats in the Mid-Atlantic; the GOP made big gains in the South picking up 19 seats, and swept in much of the Midwest.

    ALASKA: “Republican Senate hopeful Joe Miller of Alaska says incumbent Sen. Lisa Murkowski's ‘little victory speech’ may have been premature,” the AP writes. “In a taped interview aired Friday on NBC's ‘Today’ show, Miller said he's not ready to concede defeat in the closely watch contest… Initial returns show write-in ballots hold an edge of more than 13,000 votes over Miller. But it isn't yet clear how many of the write-in votes are for Murkowski.”

    CONNECTICUT: “Democrat Dannel Malloy appears to have gained enough votes in Bridgeport to win the race for governor,” the Hartford Courant writes. “Bridgeport Mayor Bill Finch announced the totals at a press conference around 6:20 a.m., after elections workers there tallied votes through the night. The Bridgeport vote went for Malloy, with 17,800 votes to Republican Tom Foley's 4,075 votes. That margin of 13,725 appears to be enough to overcome the 8,409-vote lead that Foley held before the Bridgeport votes were counted. If the numbers hold up, Malloy will have won the race by a margin of 5,316.”

    WASHINGTON: “Sen. Patty Murray has won a fourth term, riding a wave of strong Democratic support in King County to defeat Republican challenger Dino Rossi,” The Seattle Times writes. “Rossi conceded at about 6 p.m., calling Murray to congratulate her, according to a statement released by his campaign.”

  • Tight House races: Late update

    From NBC News' Doug Adams
    Two days after the election, nine (or 10) House races still have not been decided. All of the seats are held by Democratic incumbents -- and in four of the races, the Republican challenger is ahead. Below is an update and analysis of each race as of Thursday afternoon.

    Arizona 8th CD: Two-term incumbent Gabrielle Giffords (D) leads by 2,356 votes over challenger Jesse Kelly, a 29-year-old Marine veteran and Tea Party favorite. Giffords' lead is just under 1 percentage point as of Thursday late afternoon. Democrats are confident she can hang on, as her lead has increased slowly each day. The bulk of the remaining early and provisional ballots are in Pima County (Tucson), which Giffords won decisively. The 8th Congressional District is the southeast corner of Arizona and includes almost all of Tucson.

    California 11th CD: This is the closest race in the country. Two-term Rep. Jerry McNerny (D) leads by a scant 121 votes over Republican David Harmer, out of more than 164,000 votes cast. Tens of thousands of mail-in and provisional ballots remain to be counted, and a result isn't expected for at least a week. Republicans are optimistic they could pull off a win here because Harman was winning a bigger percentage of the early mail-in vote before Election Day. Either candidate can demand and pay for a recount, but that decision must be made by Dec. 5. The sprawling 11th Congressional District is in the San Joaquin valley and includes part of Stockton.

    California 20th CD: Three-term incumbent Jim Costa (D) trails challenger Andy Vidak, a cherry farmer, by less than 2,000 votes out of more 60,000 votes cast. But there are still at least 50,000 absentee and provisional ballots still outstanding. Democrats are cautiously optimistic that the moderate Costa can pull it out since the bulk of the outstanding ballots come from two counties (Fresno and Kern) that Costa won convincingly. Election officials have until Nov. 30 to produce final results, so we may not know the winner in this one until after Thanksgiving at the earliest. The rural 20th Congressional District is in central California, southwest of Fresno.

    Illinois 8th CD: Incumbent Melissa Bean (D) was heavily favored in this race, but now finds herself trailing by 553 votes with 100 percent of the precincts reporting. Republican newcomer Joe Walsh -- a self-employed consultant who calls himself a Tea Party activist -- has claimed victory, but Bean has yet to concede. There are several thousand absentee and provisional ballots still to be counted, and the deadline for reporting the final results is Nov 16. This one doesn't look good for the Democrats, as the majority of outstanding ballots are from counties that Walsh won. The 8th Congressional District includes Schaumberg and the suburbs northwest of Chicago.

    Kentucky 6th CD: Republican challenger Andy Barr formally requested a "recanvass" or machine check of the vote totals Thursday afternoon. Barr trails Rep. Ben Chandler (D) by 644 votes, out of about 239,000 votes cast. Chandler has claimed victory, but the recanvass will take place Nov. 12. Barr can also petition for a more intensive hand recount, but his campaign would have to foot the bill at a cost of several thousand dollars. Experts say it's unlikely Barr can overcome a 600-plus-vote deficit. The 6th Congressional District, in central Kentucky, includes Lexington and its surrounding counties, stretching west to include the capital of Frankfort.

    New York 25th CD: This one might not be decided until Thanksgiving. Republican challenger Mary Ann Buerkle has moved into the lead, after late results on Wednesday from Wayne County were finally reported. The results had been delayed because of machine problems. Buerkle now holds a 659-vote lead over incumbent freshman Dan Maffei (D). More than 11,000 absentee ballots are still to be counted, most of them from Onandaga County, which is where the majority of voters live and the only county that Maffei won. The 25th Congressional District is in the middle of upstate New York and includes the city of Syracuse and the communities west between Syracuse and Rochester.

    Texas 27th CD: Twenty-eight-year incumbent Solomon Ortiz (D) has refused to concede, despite trailing challenger Blake Farenthold by 799 votes out of more than 100,000 votes cast. Farenthold, a lawyer and conservative radio talk show host from a famous Democratic family, has declared victory. Ortiz and his team of lawyers are considering a recount, which his campaign would have to pay for. The 27th Congressional District is in southeast Texas, stretching from Corpus Christi south to the border, including Brownsville.

    Virginia 11th CD: Rep. Gerry Connolly (D) extended his lead over businessman Keith Fimian (R) to 930 votes, according to the latest tally released Thursday afternoon. Connolly, a freshman Democrat, doubled his lead from election night, when he led by only 487 votes out of just over a quarter million votes cast. Fimian has not conceded the race and is considering requesting a recount. Since the margin is greater than .05 percentage points, Fimian would have to pay for a recount, although news reports say he'd have little trouble soliciting donations for that effort. Any recount would not start until at least Nov. 22, when the results are certified. The 11th Congressional District is in northern Virginia and includes the outer western suburbs of Washington DC.

    Washington 2nd CD: Five-term incumbent Rep. Rick Larson (D) jumped out to a 1,606-vote lead Thursday over challenger John Koster (R) out of almost 200,000 votes counted so far. Koster had a 1,500-vote lead on election night, but as mail-in ballots trickle in Larson has steadily gained ground. But there are still a substantial number of ballots outstanding, many from Snohomish County, which is Koster's stronghold. As is customary in close races in this mail-in ballot state, both campaigns will wait for several more days before declaring victory. The 2nd Congressional District in the northwest part of the state, and includes the San Juan Islands and the mainland along Puget Sound north of Seattle.

    Washington 9th CD: Rep. Adam Smith (D) leads his challenger by 11,366 votes, which computes to 53%-46%. NBC News has projected Smith the winner. But because Washington is a mail ballot state, it might be a few more days before things are finalized. The Republican in the race is state legislator Dick Muri. The 9th Congressional District is in the independent-heavy corridor between Seattle and Tacoma.

    NOTE: North Carolina 2nd CD: Longtime incumbent Bobby Etheridge (D) closed to within 1 percentage point and plans to seek a recount if the margin remains that close. His Republican challenger, Renee Ellmers, leads by 1,646 votes. Ellmers on Thursday afternoon blasted the NRCC for allegedly refusing to help pay attorneys in the potential recount battle; she claims she'll face legal costs of at least $50,000. Etheridge picked up about 500 votes yesterday, bringing him within the margin eligible for a recount. NBC News has projected Ellmers as the winner, though Etheridge has not conceded.

  • NBC: Quinn is apparent winner in Illinois gov race

    From the NBC News political team
    NBC News reports that Democrat Gov. Pat Quinn is the apparent winner in the Illinois governors race.

    Quinn, a former lieutenant governor who stepped into the job two years ago when Gov. Rod Blagojevich was ousted due to corruption charges, has a lead of about 19,000 votes over Republican state Sen. Bill Brady.

    He campaigned on a proposal to raise income taxes in order to help offset the state's staggering deficit.

    Another Democrat on the ticket, Obama ally Alexi Giannoulias, lost to Republican Mark Kirk in the state's Senate race Tuesday.

  • Making 2012 guesses? Some context from 2006

    We now know the 2010 winners and losers, and the election, for the most part, is over... just in time for the press and politicos to start breathlessly hypothesizing about the next one – and the all-important 2012 presidential primary.

    But before you start filling out your GOP candidate brackets, it’s worth remembering the heady days of winter 2006, when Democrats had thundered to victory in the midterms and pundits were frenetically handicapping the upcoming contests in the race to replace President George W. Bush.

    It’s safe to say the chatter in the weeks after that election was often short of terrifically informative.

    In mid-November 2006, pollsters found that New York mayor Rudy Giuliani would run away with the Republican presidential nomination – especially if the second most popular GOP choice, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, decided to pass on a run.

    Few polls even included the eventual winner of the Iowa caucuses, Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. And in at least seven surveys that month, Mitt Romney’s support languished in single digits, behind a man who eventually passed on a run -- Newt Gingrich.

    On the Democratic side, a flurry of surveys in November 2006 showed Hillary Clinton leading Barack Obama by double digits. Also winning a substantial chunk of support was former Vice President Al Gore.

    No public polls showed Obama with a lead over Clinton until early 2008.

    Clinton, at the time, was being quizzed by reporters about rumors that she might choose to become Senate majority leader instead of making a presidential run at all.

    The day after the midterm election, the Associated Press labeled then-Sen. Barack Obama “an intriguing wild card” in the ’08 contest, although it remained unclear whether or not he would run. But experts were also quick to muse about the unlikelihood that a senator – especially a freshman with little experience – could win the presidency, noting historical trends that favor governors instead.

    Also that week, Sen. Russ Feingold, who had been talked about as a candidate, tweaked the prevailing conventional wisdom when he said he saw the Democratic surge as a sign to back away from a presidential run. “I saw the result Tuesday and thought ‘What a great opportunity to do my work in the Senate,’” he said.

    And two days after the midterm elections, the first Democratic hopeful filed the paperwork to make his run official, declaring that the elections showed that people “want leaders who share their values, understand their needs, and respect their intelligence … that’s what I intend to do as president.”

    That would-be nominee? Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack. Some speculated that Vilsack could win his home state caucuses – either negating their results entirely or launching him to national name recognition. He dropped out of the race with relatively little fanfare just three months later.

    There was one early guess that turned out to be right -- after it was wrong, that is.

    Sen. John McCain was considered the institutional frontrunner for the nomination in 2006, although many GOP strategists fretted that his bipartisan overtures on immigration and judicial nominations would scuttle his primary victory. Both turned out to ring true; his campaign barely had a pulse in the summer of 2007, only to be revived later in the year when he bested all of his rivals in the crowded GOP field.

  • House Operations: The GOP Way

    From NBC's Luke Russert
    Many of the newly-elected Republican members of Congress come from small business backgrounds, according to House GOP 112th Congress Transition Chairman Greg Walden of Oregon.

    So, Walden says, Republicans will attempt to run the House as a small business--looking to boost efficiency wherever possible.

    After praising House Speaker Nancy Pelosi for fully cooperating in the changeover process and making it “seamless,” Walden announced that the GOP transition team will consist of twenty-two House Republicans with a “good complement” being newly elected members. Walden continued to say the GOP team would be looking at everything available in order to cut costs and to make the institution “more open to public scrutiny.”

    Two specifics areas that the GOP transition team will target are the internal GOP Conference rules and the rules of the House itself.

    Walden indicated that a total earmark ban would be discussed within the conference as would a rule requiring all legislation to be posted on the internet for 72 hours before it could be voted upon.

    He also denounced the current structure of the House in regards to scheduling. He complained that Democrats often held two-day workweeks, where committee hearings would be delayed because they fell upon the same time as votes.

    The GOP will move to put a more concrete work schedule in place in an effort to cut down on the travel costs for members because they couldn’t book flights in advance due to a schedule always in flux.

    Walden would not commit to continuing Speaker Pelosi’s “Greening the Capitol” initiative saying that while he’s from a conservationist state, there “were limits of what could be done to best use taxpayer money efficiently.” Thus the GOP could remove some of the more expensive LED bulbs that Pelosi installed to make the Capitol more environmentally friendly in an effort to save money.

    The GOP expects to have a tangible plan for how the House will run operationally in place by January.

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