The New York Times: “The chairmen of President Obama’s bipartisan commission on reducing the national debt outlined a politically provocative and economically ambitious package of spending cuts and tax increases on Wednesday, igniting a debate that is likely to grip the country for years.”

The Washington Post adds: “The blueprint drafted by former Clinton White House chief of staff Erskine Bowles and former senator Alan K. Simpson (R-Wyo.) would slice more than $3.8 trillion from deficits over the next decade, reversing a rapid run-up in the national debt that many fear has the country headed for crisis. To meet that goal, Bowles and Simpson are proposing to slay a herd of sacred cows, including the tax deduction for mortgage interest claimed by many homeowners, the tax-free treatment of employer-provided health insurance and the practice of letting retirees claim Social Security benefits starting at age 62. The blueprint would raise the early retirement age to 64 and the standard retirement age to 69 for today's toddlers.”

Obama’s reaction: “‘Before anybody starts shooting down proposals, I think we need to listen. We have to gather up all the facts,” Obama said at a news conference on Thursday, per Politico. ‘We have to be straight with the American people… We can’t just engage in political rhetoric.’”

Pelosi’s reaction: “Outgoing U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi said on Wednesday a draft deficit-reduction proposal from a presidential commission is ‘simply unacceptable’ -- a sign many Democrats are uncomfortable with its envisioned benefit and spending cuts,” Reuters reports.

The liberal-leaning New York Times editorial page gives the recommendations a thumbs-up. “The draft proposal by the chairmen of President Obama’s deficit-reduction commission was a welcome antidote to the low-minded debate that dominated the midterm elections, in which politicians all vowed to reduce the deficit but offered no credible plans.”

“A Pentagon study group has concluded that the military can lift the ban on gays serving openly in uniform with only minimal and isolated incidents of risk to the current war efforts, according to two people familiar with a draft of the report, which is due to President Obama on Dec. 1,” the Washington Post says.

"The oil spill that damaged the Gulf of Mexico’s reefs and wetlands is also threatening to stain the Obama administration’s reputation for relying on science to guide policy. Academics, environmentalists, and federal investigators have accused the administration since the April spill of downplaying scientific findings, misrepresenting data, and most recently misconstruing the opinions of experts it solicited. The latest complaint from scientists comes in a report by the Interior Department’s inspector general, which concluded that the White House edited a drilling safety report in a way that made it falsely appear that scientists and experts supported the administration’s six-month ban on new deep-water drilling. The Associated Press obtained the report yesterday."

"Nancy Pelosi is struggling to stand her ground as the effects of last week's Democratic debacle shift the political earth beneath her feet," Politico writes. "Pelosi announced Friday that she’s running for minority leader in the new Congress, and her election still seems on track. But a movement by conservative Blue Dogs to block her ascent has picked up support from some liberals and even a handful of longtime Pelosi allies, who question whether she is the best person to lead the battered party in the House."

The AP: "In a fresh sign of turmoil among defeated Democrats, a growing number of the rank and file say they will not support House Speaker Nancy Pelosi in a politically symbolic roll call when the new Congress meets in January… Party elections are scheduled for next week, although a postponement is possible."

Left-leaning columnist Joan Vennochi from the Boston Globe: "Michael Capuano may be a disloyal, self-serving politician who is gunning for “the people’s seat,’’ so christened last January by Senator Scott Brown, the Republican who won it. But the congressman from Somerville is right about Nancy Pelosi. She and her leadership team should have stepped aside once Democrats lost their House majority after this month’s game-changing election."

"House Speaker Nancy Pelosi wants to push for a vote during the lame-duck session on a bill that would legalize young, undocumented immigrants if they attend college or serve in the military, according to Democratic sources familiar with a leadership conference call Wednesday," Politico writes. "A vote on the bill, known as the DREAM Act, could come as early as next week, the sources said. Pelosi asked Rep. George Miller (D-Calif.) and Rep. Xavier Becerra (D-Calif.) to assess the mood of the caucus, according to one source."

"Rep. John Boehner isn't ready to play let's make a deal with President Obama," the New York Daily News writes. "Emboldened by the GOP's drubbing of Democrats in this month's midterm elections, the likely next Speaker of the House told reporters Wednesday that he won't compromise his stance that the Bush-era tax cuts—even for wealthiest Americans—be made permanent."

“That sigh of relief you heard? It might have been John A. Boehner and other Republican leaders in the House when they got the word that Representative Michele Bachmann ending her campaign for a leadership position,” the New York Times writes.

"Connecticut GOP Chairman Chris Healy is strongly considering a bid to replace Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele, and on Wednesday he unleashed a scathing critique of Steele’s leadership," Roll Call writes. "'I think at some point someone has to step up and say the emperor has no clothes. I’m more than willing to do that,' Healy told Roll Call. 'I think I can give the RNC what it needs over the next two years. I don’t have any confidence that the current management can get it done.'"

ALASKA: The Anchorage Daily News: “Almost 98 percent of write-in ballots opened Wednesday went to Lisa Murkowski on the first day of a count meant to decide Alaska's U.S. Senate race… Elections workers opened the write-in ballots for almost 20 percent of the precincts in Alaska on Wednesday. The count of more than 90,000 write-ins will continue today and is expected to last five days.”

The U.S. District Court judge who was originally assigned to Joe Miller’s write-in lawsuit “quickly removed himself from the case,” the Alaska Dispatch reports. “It turns out [Judge John] Sedwick was the chief judge under whom Miller once worked as a part-time U.S. magistrate judge in Fairbanks, and Miller's sudden departure from the post to instead seek political office left Sedwick with a less than stellar opinion of the man. In fact, Sedwick openly admits he formed a ‘negative opinion of Mr. Miller.’”

There was discord within both the liberal and conservative blogospheres over the proposals from the president's deficit commission, which was publicized today. In some cases, both liberal and conservatives bloggers were supportive of the report, like conservative blogger Kevin Williamson at NRO and left-leaning Atlantic blogger Andrew Sullivan.

Williamson:

I am surprised that the president’s deficit-reduction panel has produced such a sensible set of proposals: Eliminating tax write-offs while lowering tax rates is a big tax hike — a $100 billion-a-year tax hike, maybe more — but it is the right kind of tax hike, in my view. The simplification of tax filings for most Americans will provide additional private savings in the form of lower compliance costs. Raising the Social Security retirement age, reducing Medicare payments, capping federal revenues, chopping into discretionary spending — all are welcome. I do not think that the authors have “harpooned every whale” as Alan Simpson put it (Obamacare still haunts the fiscal depths), but it’s a very solid start, one that Republicans can pick up and run with.

Sullivan:

I've quickly scanned the Simpson-Bowles draft proposal and find it extremely encouraging. It really does hit what the Dish regards as key themes for a new fiscal order: 1986-style tax reform (largely removing deductions and lowering rates); serious defense retrenchment; focusing social security on the truly needy and raising the retirement age; hard cost-controls in Medicare; a real populist attack on government waste.

It reads like the manifesto the Tea Party never published. Every detail needs thinking through and debate. Much of it is way over my head in terms of the specifics of government programs and the ability to cut them. But the core proposal is honest, real, and vital. I recommend you download and read both documents.

Other bloggers, including Bob Stein at NRO, listed what he liked and disliked about the report. Among his findings;

Here's what I like:

Trying to reduce spending as a share of GDP to 21 percent — very commendable for a centrist group.

Civil-service retirement-benefit reductions; requiring greater contributions for the government’s defined-benefit plan; making the benefit formula less biased in favor of older workers.

Indexing the retirement age in Social Security to longevity — very good. Bravo.

Here’s what I don’t like:

Although the plan says it would try to cap revenue as a share of GDP at 21 percent, there is nothing in the plan that would do so. Gradually, productivity will push a larger share of income into the higher marginal tax brackets, resulting in higher revenue relative to GDP.

Social Security solvency is achieved over 75 years only, rather than over the infinite horizon. This means that in ten years, when the 75-year window includes, at the back end, a ten-year window where solvency does not exist, we will again be back in 75-year insolvency.

The plan calls for increasing the tax base for Social Security. This is a large tax
hike for many workers.

Some liberal bloggers, however, flatly condemned the report.

Washington Monthly's Steve Benen noted some of the lower-profile suggestions in the proposal.

Some of my favorites -- and by "favorites," I mean ideas that I found astounding, not ideas I actually approve of -- include the elimination of hundreds of thousands of federal workers, the elimination of subsidized student loans, new costs imposed on veterans for their health care, cutting schools on military bases, and new entrance fees at the Smithsonian.

Sorry, you freeloading school kids.

And to think, 14 out of 18 commission members weren't ready to endorse this. Imagine that.

Also keep in mind, the cuts could be less severe in the Simpson/Bowles model if only they cut taxes less. But this plan calls for dropping the top marginal rate to just 23%. Under Clinton, it was 39.6%. Under George W. Bush, it was 35%.

I've seen some suggestions that the report, such as it is, should be considered "controversial." But that's not quite right. It's better to call this what it is: hopelessly irrelevant.

Daily Kos' Joan McCarter was equally pessimistic.

The recommendations of the chairs--from the big tax cuts to the decimating of the federal workforce--just don't fit the reality of the current economy with high unemployment, the loss of equity of so many retirees and near retirees in the one major asset most held--their houses, and the wage stagnation that has resulted in the great income equality in the nation. That's not even addressing the costs of two wars and the Bush tax cuts.

From NBC's Kristen Welker and Mark Murray
JUNEAU, AK -- The ballots are arriving now.

Per Gail Fenumiai of the Division of Elections, counting of the write-in ballots in the still-undecided Senate race between GOP nominee Joe Miller and write-in candidate Lisa Murkowski will get underway, despite the lawsuit filed by the Miller camp to halt counting until stiffer guidelines are established for determining which votes are valid.

According to Alaska election law, the write-in oval must be filled in, and either a candidate's last name or the candidate's name as it appears on the candidacy declaration must appear on the ballot as well. Election officials have said they will determine voter intent to decide whether a ballot is valid. Fenumiai says there is nothing in state law that specifically references voter intent -- but there have been precedents in case law in which voter intent has been used as the standard. Miller's camp says Alaska election law should be followed to the word, and therefore misspellings (like "Murkoski" instead of "Murkowski") should not be allowed.

Fenumiai also says there are 40 districts that need to be counted in total. She is hoping the counting teams (15 teams of two) will each get through an entire district today -- one precinct at a time.

From NBC's Lisa Myers and Mark Murray
The dramatic recommendations laid out today by President Obama's debt commission -- to slash spending and eliminate popular tax deductions -- are merely a draft proposal by the commission co-chairs, but they underscore the scope of changes required to bring the deficit back to acceptable levels.

As co-chair Alan Simpson, a former GOP senator, put it: "We have harpooned every whale in the ocean and some of the minnows."

The recommendations:
-- Social Security: smaller cost of living benefits, a gradual increase in retirement age, higher payroll taxes for upper-income Americans.
-- Dramatic tax reform: to broaden the base and lower rates, while wiping out or scaling back most tax breaks, including reducing the mortgage deduction
-- Significant spending cuts in almost all functions of government.

Something of this magnitude is expected to be dead on arrival with most Democratic and Republican elected officials on the commission, who oppose either the spending cuts or tax increases. Still, the commission has until Dec. 1 to try to reach agreement on something -- perhaps a more limited set of spending cuts.

Indeed, as the New York Times notes, "Should the package of proposals fall short of the necessary 14 votes in the deficit commission [out of 18], as many people expect, proponents of deficit reduction, including some administration officials, hope that at least some of its recommendations could be the basis of efforts to pare deficits once the economy fully recovers."

*** UPDATE *** White House spokesman Bill Burton offers this response to the recommendations: "The President will wait until the bipartisan fiscal commission finishes its work before commenting. He respects the challenging task that the Co-Chairs and the Commissioners are undertaking and wants to give them space to work on it. These ideas, however, are only a step in the process towards coming up with a set of recommendations and the President looks forward to reviewing their final product early next month."

From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell
Republican House Leader John Boehner told reporters today that he will continue to fly commercial airlines to his home district in Ohio each week as House speaker.

That is a break from Nancy Pelosi, who has at times been criticized for her use of military aircraft.

The military flights actually began after 9/11 to secure the line of presidential succession. Former Speaker Dennis Hastert, a Republican, was also flown home by the military to Illinois. Aides say Pelosi and Hastert each used the same type of 12-seat military aircraft. They add that aircraft can fly cross country to Pelosi's district non-stop without refueling.

GOP aides say Boehner would likely use military aircraft for other trips in the role of Speaker like overseas visits but for his weekly district travel he will fly commercial.

[Editor's note: This version of the story was changed to reflect that Hastert and Pelosi used the same type of military aircraft.]

Does the White House get more proactive or reactive to Congress? … As Alaska’s write-in count begins, Miller’s campaign goes to court … Minnesota’s recount likely to leave Pawlenty in place with – a GOP legislature (hmmm) … Pelosi launches a defense of the Democratic agenda in op-ed; some Dems survivors want her out (though likely not enough) … All eyes on Michael Steele and the RNC chair race – what’s the buzz? … Making sense of the midterms: Diving into the exits on views of the parties by state … And seven House races remain uncalled with GOP continuing to lead in five – could get to +65.

From NBC's Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, Ali Weinberg
*** What now for the White House? Here’s a question we have with Republicans set to take the reins in the House: How will the White House handle Congress now? Will they continue to let the agenda and details come from it, or will they begin to force their own debates? For example, will they propose the tax-cut plan or let Congress work it out? Will they offer their own entitlement/deficit/tax plans or let Congress do it and cherry pick? Both Speaker-to-be Boehner and Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell have said in their post-election statements, the president sets the agenda. So will the White House do that? Right now, in the GOP's post-election euphoria, it doesn't sound like the Democrats are ready to set the agenda. Of course, the president is overseas, but we'll know soon enough. Next week, the president has the entire congressional leadership teams to the White House and then, of course, there's the lame-duck tax-rate fight between the two parties. Will it be a fight at all? How the White House handles the lame-duck session -- and the tone set -- will likely dictate whether the White House will be more proactive or reactive with this new Congress.

*** Here come the lawyers: As the counting of write-in ballots begins today at 1:00 pm ET in Alaska’s still-undecided Senate race, Joe Miller’s (R) campaign filed a federal lawsuit last night to prohibit any write-in ballots that misspell Lisa Murkowski’s name, the Anchorage Daily News says. “Miller is asking a judge to stop the state from making a judgment on a voter's intentions if the voter wrote in something other than ‘Murkowski’ or ‘Lisa Murkowski.’ State law allows no leeway for other spellings, his lawsuit says… The Murkowski campaign reacted to Tuesday's lawsuit by accusing Miller of trying to toss out legitimate votes for the eight-year incumbent. ‘They're trying to discount as many votes as possible from Alaskans,’ Murkowski campaign manager Kevin Sweeney said. Miller's lawyer, Tom Van Flein [who is also the Palins’ attorney], is asking a federal judge for a hearing this afternoon.” After the counting of some 27,000 absentee ballots yesterday, Miller narrowed his deficit and now trails “write-in” by 11,333 votes.

*** Recount politics in Minnesota: Just askin’, but how loudly would Republicans be complaining if their gubernatorial candidate were ahead by a seemingly insurmountable 9,000-vote lead, but Democrats were girding for a long recount to allow their outgoing governor to remain on the job and work with the newly elected Democratic legislature? Well, that’s going on in Minnesota -- but in reverse. The Star Tribune: “Some Republicans say [a costly recount] would be worthwhile even as they privately concede it could be tough for Emmer to close the nearly 9,000-vote gap. Others say that prolonging the recount fight long enough to keep Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty in office an extra few weeks with a newly GOP-led Legislature would be a welcome bonus. ‘I don't think there's any downside to keeping this recount going on as long as possible,’ said a high-level Republican operative who spoke on the condition of anonymity. ‘If we keep the process going, there are opportunities for us in the upcoming legislative session.’” Can anyone come up with an example where a recount overturned a 9,000 vote advantage?

*** Pelosi’s Defense: Outgoing House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (and soon to be minority leader) lays out a defense of the Democratic agenda the past two years in a USA Today op-ed. She argues that the election “reflected the genuine frustration of the American people, who are justifiably angered by the continued high unemployment rate” -- not a reflection on her leadership. “While Democrats are also disappointed at the rate of job growth, it does not diminish what we have accomplished,” she writes, touting the 111th Congress as “the most productive in a half-century.” She calls Democrats and President Obama “job creators from Day One, saving the country from the worst economic catastrophe since the Great Depression.” She defends the stimulus, the financial sector and student-loan overhauls, and “historic health insurance reform.” She says that “more needs to be done” and alludes to bipartisanship three times: “Democrats will strive to work with the new Republican majority;” “We welcome Republican ideas about job creation;” and fighting to create jobs “hopefully in a bipartisan way.” But she takes this veiled shot: “Though they elected a new majority in Congress, Americans did not vote for the special interests. They voted for jobs. Democrats remain committed to fighting for the people's interests, not the special interests.” By the way, Politico’s Jonathan Allen reports: “A pair of disaffected Democratic survivors are calling on the party’s top brass to postpone House leadership elections until December -- a move that could give potential challengers to Speaker Nancy Pelosi and her top lieutenants more time to gather their forces. ... The body of the letter calls on Democrats to ‘spend more time to understand these historic losses’ before voting on leaders.” Learn more about the case for Pelosi remaining as House Democratic leader on MSNBC’s The Daily Rundown today with Pelosi confidante, California Rep. George Miller.

*** Steele the one? The next big race: As the midterms wrap up (there are just a few uncalled races left), all eyes in Washington move toward 2012 and, more immediately, the race for Republican National Committee chairman. The 168 RNC members will vote Jan. 13-15 at their Winter Meeting in DC. The consensus seems to be that members are not thrilled with Michael Steele’s tenure and would prefer a new chairman, but they haven’t coalesced around any one person. No one has announced yet, and if they want to make a serious run at it, they’ll likely have to do so by next week, because they’ll have to campaign a bit to meet with committee members to gauge support. One GOP consultant tells First Read Steele believes he has 50 votes, but would need 80.

*** The replacements: The names circulating the rumor mill of those who could replace Steele include: Wisconsin GOP chair Reince Priebus, named in the Washington Post’s Cillizza’s piece yesterday, the New York Times’ Zeleny’s today and mentioned to First Read by a GOP consultant. But Priebus told Zeleny he might be uncomfortable challenging Steele because of their friendship. Others: Henry Barbour, Haley Barbour’s nephew (also quoted in the Times as not being thrilled with Steele. But he’s like a non-starter, because Haley Barbour is thought to be seriously mulling a 2012 presidential bid; Ron Weiser (the Michigan GOP chair); Saul Anuzis (a committeeman from Michigan who ran an aggressive campaign for chair last time); Kevin Dewine (Ohio GOP chairman); Jan Larimer (RNC co-chairman); former Chairman Mike Duncan; Maria Cino (who ran the 2008 convention); ex-Oklahoma Gov. Frank Keating); and maybe Katon Dawson (the runner up to Steele. He’s thought to be considering it, but not seriously). The question becomes: What would Steele want to get out of the race; what kind of deal might have to be cut? RNC Convention chairman, perhaps… For those that think they know Steele, the idea of finding him something seems like a viable option and a Florida convention just might be the ticket.

*** Making sense of the midterms: Views of the parties: In our next installment looking at the midterm exit polls, we today examine the attitudes about the two political parties. The national exit poll showed both the Democratic Party and the Republican Party at pretty much the same place, with the Dems’ 43%-53% fav/unfav rating and the GOP’s 42%-52% score. But there were differences in key battleground states. In these battlegrounds, the Democrats’ highest ratings were in Pennsylvania (48% favorable) and Wisconsin (46%), and their lowest were in Iowa (41%) and Indiana (40%). The Republicans’ highest ratings were in Indiana (51%), Wisconsin (46%) and Iowa (45%), and their lowest were in Nevada (40%) and Colorado (38%).

*** The state scores, from best to worst: In the states where we could find the numbers, here are the Democratic Party’s favorable ratings, from best to worst: IL 52%, CA 50%, WA 50%, PA 48%, WI 46%, OR 45%, WV 45%, CO 43%, FL 43%, OH 43%, NV 42%, KY 41%, IA 41%, AR 40%, TX 39%, SC 29% 39%, AZ 36%. And here are the GOP’s favorable ratings, from best to worst: SC 53%, IN 51%, AR 51%, TX 50%, KY 49%, AZ 47%, WV 46%, WI 46%, IA 45%, FL 43%, OH 42%, PA 41%, NV 40%, IL 39%, CO 38%, WA 35%, CA 33%, OR 30%.

*** The uncalled House races: There are now seven races that remain uncalled. In VA-11, Keith Fimian (R) conceded yesterday to Gerry Connolly (D). Republicans still lead in five (giving them potentially a +65 final tally up from what’s currently +60) -- though incumbent Jim Costa (D) in CA-20 has closed the gap to just 145 votes from what was a 1,823-vote lead for Andy Vidak (R) on Election Night. By the way, Costa says he’d prefer to see a new Democratic leader. "I'm looking to support new leadership," he said, adding that he thinks it would be good for the “valley” if Republican Kevin McCarthy (from Bakersfield) is elected majority whip. The uncalled races: CA-11, CA-20, IL-8, KY-6 NY-1, NY-25, TX-27.

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As President Obama arrived in Seoul, Korea to attend the G-20, there’s plenty of economic drama. The New York Times: “Anyone wondering what President Obama will face when he arrives in South Korea on Wednesday for a global financial summit meeting need look no further than an announcement by China’s leading state-endorsed rating agency, which downgraded the United States’ credit rating on Tuesday — and provocatively questioned American leadership of the global economy. The agency cited the Federal Reserve’s decision to pump more money into the United States economy and warned of Washington’s ‘deteriorating debt repayment capability’ and ‘the serious defects in the United States economic development and management model,’ which it predicted would lead to ‘fundamentally lowering the national solvency.’”

The paper adds, "The Chinese, who have protested that the Federal Reserve is trying to unilaterally manipulate the dollar for the purpose of creating jobs at home, have been accused of doing exactly that for years -- the root of many of the world’s economic tensions today, in the eyes of Mr. Obama and his economic aides."

The Washington Post on Obama's earlier speech in Indonesia: “Speaking before thousands in the city that helped raise him, President Obama on Wednesday cited this country's transition from dictatorship to democracy as a model in an Islamic world often governed by unelected autocracies. He also praised Indonesia - the world's most populous Muslim-majority nation - for a 'spirit of tolerance that is written into your constitution, symbolized in your mosques and churches and temples, and embodied in your people,' a quality worthy for all the world to emulate."

More: "Obama received a warm welcome from the crowd of about 6,500 at the University of Indonesia, particularly when he spoke in Indonesian, as when he recalled buying satay and bakso from street vendors or referenced the national motto, 'Bhinneka Tunggal Ika,' or 'Unity in Diversity.' 'We are two nations which have traveled different paths. Yet our nations show that hundreds of millions who hold different beliefs can be united in freedom under one flag,' Obama said."

AP: "In the Muslim nation that was his boyhood home, President Obama acknowledged today that US relations are still frayed with the Islamic world despite his best efforts at repair. He urged all sides to look beyond 'suspicion and mistrust' to forge common ground against terrorism. Forcefully returning to a theme he sounded last year in visits to Turkey and Egypt, Obama said: 'I have made it clear that America is not and never will be at war with Islam. . . . Those who want to build must not cede ground to terrorists who seek to destroy.'"

“Republicans retaking control of the House in January are getting lessons from veterans of the past two transitions of power on Capitol Hill -- 1994, when the GOP last took control of Congress, and 2006, when Democrats grabbed it back. Lesson No. 1: They have a short window to convince the public they're serious about changing the way Washington works,” the AP writes.

“If Democrats thought last Tuesday was a tough night, just wait for a coming perilous vote on a huge $1 trillion spending bill to keep the government operating,” the Wall Street Journal writes. “One option, favored by outgoing House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, is passing a $1.1 trillion spending bill to fund the government through Sept. 30, 2011… The other option, favored by House Republicans, is a short-term funding extension, with a roughly $200 billion price tag.”

“In a highly unusual move, the Freshman Class Steering Committee, a body of 28 members that will farm out committee assignments, will feature two freshman, rather than the usual one. What is more, the elected leadership team, which generally has nine members, will make room for a 10th, also to accommodate an incoming freshman, providing a vital role usually not enjoyed by newbies,” the New York Times writes. “The new positions reflect the large number of fresh faces — roughly 60 among newly-in-control Republicans – and a likely desire among senior leaders in the House to make sure that new members feel present and accounted for, and not tempted into immediate acts of rebellion.”

South Carolina Representative-elect Tim Scott and Illinois Representative-elect Adam Kinzinger “will be unofficial ambassadors for tea party voters on the transition team and in Congress,” the Miami Herald writes.

“U.S. Rep.-elect Martha Roby arrived in Washington even earlier than she planned after House Republicans appointed her to a transition team prepping to take over the U.S. House come January,” The Birmingham News writes. Roby “is one of four freshmen on the 22-member transition team. The team met Monday night and most of the day Tuesday, hammering out issues about day-to-day House operations.”

Representative-elect Kristi Noem “might run for the House Republican freshman class representative to the party leadership -- a role that would put her in the regular strategy meetings held by the speaker of the house, the majority leader and others,” the Rapid City Journal writes. “In possibly pursuing this position, Noem is treading familiar ground. When Sen. John Thune was first elected to the House in 1996, he served two years as the representative of his class on the leadership team.”

"George W. Bush recounted the mistakes of his presidency on Oprah Winfrey’s talk show as he launched a book tour to promote his just-released memoir, 'Decision Points,'" AP writes. "The former president said he still feels 'sick about' the fact that no weapons of mass destruction were found in Iraq. His response to Hurricane Katrina could have been quicker, he said, and he should have landed Air Force One two days after the storm instead of viewing the destruction through the plane’s window. And he said he did not see the financial meltdown coming."

On NBC's TODAY show this morning, Bush defended his fiscal record, saying the "only fair way" to compare him to others is by debt-to-GDP ratio. He also declined to speak about the New York mosque controversy or the anti-Muslim rhetoric that has abounded. He dismissed the rhetoric, saying that the loudest voices get the most coverage.

"I have no desire to debate," Bush said. "My debating days are over. ... After selling this book, I'm heading back underground."

He did layout his post-presidency policy priorities as public schools and disease overseas. He said he can still have an impact on policy without being political.

The Washington Post's Cillizza: "There is an effort underway among prominent Republican National Committee members to recruit a serious alternative to Chairman Michael Steele if and when he decides to stand for a second term early next year, according to sources familiar with the conversations. Henry Barbour, the nephew of Gov. Haley Barbour and a committeeman from Mississippi, has approached Reince Priebus, who served as the chairman of Steele's first run for chairman in 2009, about the possibility of challenging the incumbent early next year."

The New York Times follows up: "Some senior party officials are maneuvering to put pressure on Michael Steele, the controversial party chairman, not to seek re-election when his term ends in January or, failing that, to encourage a challenger to step forward to take him on. So far, the effort has been tentative, with Mr. Steele’s most ardent opponents working behind the scenes to persuade an alternative to run against him -- fearful that any overt moves will create a backlash in Mr. Steele’s favor among those committee members who tend to view the establishment in Washington with suspicion."

“A new poll finds a majority of New Jersey voters agree with Gov. Chris Christie's decision to stop construction of a new rail tunnel into Manhattan,” the AP writes. “In the Quinnipiac University Poll released Wednesday, 53 percent support the governor's decision compared to 37 percent who disagree. Even commuters were split, with 50 percent backing Christie and 47 percent supporting the tunnel.”

National Journal notes that both Sarah Palin and Newt Gingrich hold events in Dallas at the same time tonight. Palin speaks to an anti-abortion-rights group, while Gingrich is signing books at a Borders on his book tour.

From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell
Democratic aides say House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is trying to help find a solution to the conflict in the leadership race for the next Congress but is not actively brokering a deal.

A senior Pelosi aide says, "In the course of the preparation for the lame duck, the Speaker has had conversations with Mr. Hoyer and Mr. Clyburn and other members of the leadership and she wants them both to remain in leadership."

The No. 2 and No. 3 Democrats, Steny Hoyer and Jim Clyburn, are both seeking the same position because their party loses one leadership job in the minority.

The left and right sides of the blogosphere comment on the news that Sen. Mitch McConnell is staging a "behind the scences" attempt to defeat a conservative plan to ban earmarks.

From Politico:

In a series of one-on-one conversations with incoming and sitting senators, McConnell is encouraging his colleagues to keep an open mind and not to automatically side with [Sen. Jim] DeMint, whose plan calls on Senate Republicans to unilaterally give up earmarks in the 112th Congress, according to several people familiar with the talks.

Liberal blogger John Cole at Balloon Juice finds the potential Republican rift over earmarks "awesome," making two points.

Two things about this are awesome. The first is that these guys have so little respect for the tea party that they can’t even wait a week to rub the rube’s noses in it. I mean, it is just great. Every idiot who spent the last year pretending the tea party and the lunatics they had nominated were anything other than the lunatic fringe of the GOP should just be summarily ignored. It’s really one of the greatest cons/re-branding efforts of all times.

Second, I love that the GOP is still so un-serious that earmarks are the hill to die on when it comes to fiscal responsibility. Earmarks are a nothing-burger when it comes to the budget- less than 1% of the federal budget. That’s still big money, but it is nothing when your party ran on a platform of cutting taxes for the rich and re-instating Medicare Advantage and fainting at the notion of defense cuts. Making a big stink about earmarks while supporting all the other irresponsible things the GOP wants to do is akin to ordering four double whoppers for lunch, and then removing the pickles on each, “cuz you’re on a diet!

Conservative blogger Erick Erickson at RedState takes issue with the notion that earmarks are "nothing-burgers" and the other pro-earmark arguments.

Yes, earmarks amount to a small percentage of the budget and compared to the enormity of the entitlement crisis of Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid they are miniscule. But as Jeff Flake and Tom Coburn have said before, earmarks are the gateway drug to higher spending. If a politician thinks his reelection bid is in jeopardy because he won’t be able to deliver a bike path or high-speed rail project to his district, it is inconceivable to think that that same politician will sign up for allowing people to redirect their FICA taxes to personal accounts or slow the growth of Medicare. Earmarks erode the ability to say no to more government, and they corrupt often-good politicians with the enjoyment and the power of directing other people’s money to those who come to them and ask.

Yes, Congress does have the power to spend money, but the vast majority of earmarks are spent on completely unconstitutional projects and activities. Lets take some of the earmarks requested by Senator Jim Inhofe (who we hear has been on quite the war path lately in defense of earmarks). Did the Founders really envision the federal government paying for developing curriculum in the Tulsa public schools for students at risk of dropping out ($195,000) or a river ferry boat program in Oklahoma City ($1.7 million) or an 'engineering incubator' in Norman ($137,200)? What clause of the Constitution do those fall under exactly?

There are now seven uncalled House races -- the Republican conceded in VA-11. Republicans currently are +60 in the House. They still lead in five of the uncalled races, so their total could rise to somewhere in the neighborhood of +65. Democrats, though, feel good about their chances in CA-20, where incumbent Jim Costa (D) picked up more votes and now trails by just 145 votes from what was a 1,823-vote lead for Andy Vidak (R) on Election Night.

In VA-11, Democrat Gerry Connolly, who held off Keith Fimian (R) by less than 1,000 votes said, per the Falls Church News-Press: "This outcome should be viewed from the standpoint of strength, not weakness. ... While trees were falling all over the woods, this one didn't."

Connolly also spoke about being hospitalized after the election. He said it was for "a minor blockage in an artery was discovered and 'cleared up.'"

CA-20 could be decided by tomorrow at 6:00 pm ET.

The Bakersfield Californian:

With most of Kern’s ballots now accounted for as well — with the exception of a few thousand challenged and provisional ballots county-wide — the ultimate outcome of the race will likely be decided by Costa’s home county of Fresno. And that means Costa and Vidak will have to wait until at least Wednesday at 3 p.m. to find out their fate.

The other uncalled races: CA-11, IL-8, KY-6, NY-1, NY-25, TX-25.

If Allen West or Tim Scott want in to the Congressional Black Caucus, they are welcome, CBC Chairwoman Barbara Lee (D-TX) said in a statement.

West (R-FL) and Scott (R-SC) will be the first black Republican members of Congress since J.C. Watts retired in 2003.

The New York Times:

“Membership in the Congressional Black Caucus has never been restricted to Democrats,” Representative Barbara Lee, the chairwoman of the caucus and a California Democrat, said in a statement. “Should either of the two African American Republicans recently elected to the House of Representatives request membership in the Congressional Black Caucus they will be welcomed.” ...

Ms. Lee’s statement noted that two black Republican House members had previously joined the caucus during the 40-year history of the caucus, while Watts decided not to become a member.

Who blinks first in the upcoming fight over the Bush tax cuts?... Will Pelosi remaining as Dem leader provide some steel in the Dems’ backbone?... The pollsters strike back… Making sense of the midterms: Looking at Obama’s approval rating in the states… Counting of the absentee ballots begins today in Alaska; tomorrow is the counting of the write-ins… Update in the still-undecided MN GOV race… The eight (and soon seven) undecided House races… And 2010 was the worst year for House incumbents since 1948.

From NBC's Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** Who blinks first on taxes? As the lame-duck congressional session approaches -- as does the expiration date for the Bush tax cuts -- we have two questions. One, does Congress extend the tax cuts for those making $250,000-plus for one to three years, or permanently? And two, are the tax cuts for the wealthy de-coupled from the ones from the middle class? Per Dow Jones, GOP Sen. Orrin Hatch said the second question is a non-starter. “Hatch rejected another compromise idea that has been floated of extending the lower tax rates for so-called middle class Americans permanently, while only temporarily continuing the discounted rates for wealthier Americans.” (The reason why: Republicans and some Democrats know that tax cuts for the wealthy would never pass by themselves.) So this becomes a game of who blinks first -- Democrats and the White House who want to separate the tax cuts, or the Republicans who don’t. Can Dems find 60 votes in the Senate for their preferred course?

*** Will Pelosi provide some steel in the Dems’ backbone? We’ve heard from some Democrats that a benefit to Nancy Pelosi staying as leader is that she’d help provide some steel in the Dem backbone in this tax fight. After all, in the lame duck, Democrats will still enjoy their majority in the House and will have a larger majority in the Senate than they’ll have in January. Here's one scenario painted for us as VERY likely: The House passes on mostly party-line vote a permanent extension of middle-class tax rates and a temp extension (three years?) of upper-income breaks. Then Senate Dems try and find 60 votes. Remember, they'll have 58 Dems in the lame duck when the vote comes up (Mark Kirk gets sworn in after Thanksgiving). And there are anywhere between three and five Dem defectors on the "de-coupling" issue. Are there five GOPers willing to vote with Senate Dems on this? Will Dems go to the brink to push this all the way until the end of the year? Or does an exhausted political party and White House cut the extend-them-all-for-three-years deal?

*** More on Pelosi: Despite the disadvantages we've laid out regarding Pelosi staying as Dem leader (e.g., her poll numbers and the fact that, according to CMAG, more than $65 million was spent against her during the campaign in TV ads), there’s an additional benefit to her remaining, and it's why she has the votes: She can raise lots of money. As one Dem aide reminds us, "The DCCC spent $29 million on 33 Blue Dogs and $27 million on 35 New Democrats. Speaker Pelosi is the single largest fundraiser for Congressional Democrats ($231 million since 2002, $64.8 million this cycle alone)." Also, another argument pro-Pelosi forces are making is that she can unify the caucus better than anyone else right now. There was a fear (threat?) among some progressives in the House that a Steny Hoyer campaign for House Dem leader would split the caucus badly and create an ideological divide that could be more counter-productive than the blind quote hand-wringing taking place now re: Pelosi.

*** The pollsters strike back: Nineteen of the political world’s most prominent pollsters issued an open letter yesterday, expressing the concern that many polls released for public (and media) consumption contain inadequate information about how they were conducted. “The American Association of Public Opinion Research outlines clear and extensive standards for the report of publicly released research studies," they wrote. "AAPOR urges full and complete disclosure at the time results are released of elements including sampling and sample design and the exact wording of questions and responses whose results are reported. We would urge the media to examine whether publicly released polls meet AAPOR standards in choosing whether or not to cover them.”

*** Robo-polls flooding the zone: These pollsters zeroed in on -- correctly -- the BIGGER problem with public polling these days: the narrative-setting polls released (mostly by robo-pollsters) very early on in campaigns. Nobody can ever "check" the accuracy of these polls; pollsters only get graded toward the end of the campaign when, frankly, many of them can weight their way to semi-accuracy. The bottom line: The flooding the zone aspect of these dial-a-pollsters has ruined the study of public opinion and made pollsters who spend the money to do it right look obsolete. At NBC/MSNBC, we advise all our platforms against using many of these unreliable pollsters. What the industry needs is an agreed-upon grading system that ALL major media would follow.

*** Making sense of the midterms: Obama's approval rating: Over the next week, we'll be digging deeper into the exit polls to make sense of the midterms and what they could tell us about 2012. Today's topic: Obama's standing in key states. In the states we examined, Obama's highest approval rating was in Vermont (60%), and his lowest was in West Virginia (30%). Among presidential battleground states, Colorado (48%) was the highest and Indiana (37%) was the lowest. Here's the full list, from highest to lowest job-approval rating: VT 60%, CA 54%, IL 53%, OR 52%, WA 51%, CO 48%, PA 47%, WI 46%, NV 45%, FL 45%, IA 43%, OH 43%, SC 43%, AZ 40%, LA 40%, TX 38%, AR 37%, IN 37%, and WV 30%.

*** Making sense of the midterms: The Obama-McCain split: One more point about Obama in the exit polls: The percentage who said they voted for him in '08 was below 50% in every battleground state, even the ones he won (CO, FL, IN, IA, NV, OH, PA, and WI). Indeed, the percentage who said they voted for him in these states was off, on average, between five and six points from his actual vote total two years ago, while McCain's was off between one and two points. (Example: The 2010 exits showed Obama and McCain tied in Florida at 46%, versus Obama's actual 51%-48% win in the state in '08.) This suggests that Obama's voters didn't turn out to their 2008 levels, while McCain’s pretty much did.

*** Alaska update: Per the Anchorage Daily News, the counting of more than 30,500 ABSENTEE ballots begins today in the still-undecided Alaska Senate race. “Alaskans cast 13,439 more write-in ballots on last week’s Election Day than they voted for Republican nominee [Joe] Miller. Miller hopes that today’s absentee count will help him narrow that gap.” As NBC’s Kristen Welker and Adam Verdugo noted earlier, the counting of the WRITE-IN ballots starts tomorrow.

*** Minnesota update: The Minneapolis Star Tribune reports that the Hennepin County Canvassing Board “certified its election results on Monday, shifting a total of six votes to Emmer. A tally in a Plymouth precinct had initially come up short. Dayton now leads Emmer by 8,751 votes, down slightly from an earlier lead of 8,854 votes. He named a transition team on Monday and will meet with Gov. Tim Pawlenty on Tuesday. Emmer met briefly with Pawlenty on Monday morning, but did not comment on it. He has declined all interviews since election night.” More: “To make up his current gap, Emmer must find thousands of yet-uncounted votes ready to be folded into the 2.1 million already tallied. But the Hennepin County Board meeting on Monday unearthed no major caches.”

*** The uncalled House races: There are now eight (and soon seven, it seems) races that remain uncalled. Republicans still lead in five, giving them the potential to move to +65 from +60 currently. Some changes from yesterday: The AP called WA-2 for incumbent Rick Larsen (D), and the Washington Post reports that Keith Fimian (R) will concede to freshman Rep. Gerry Connolly (D) in VA-11 today. The uncalled races: CA-11, CA-20, IL-8, KY-6 NY-1, NY-25, TX-27, VA-11. http://wapo.st/crrniE

*** Worst year for House incumbents since 1948: If Republicans win in the five still-uncalled House races in which they lead, the incumbent reelection rate would appear to be high -- 85%. But it would be the LOWEST in the House since 1948. What's more, nearly one-fourth of the House will be freshmen; 22% (or more, depending on those uncalled races) of the next Congress will be comprised of new members -- the most since 1992. If Lisa Murkowski wins in Alaska, 84% of incumbents who sought reelection would return to the Senate. (It was lower in 2006, 2000, 1992, 1980, and several other times before that back to WWII.) Traditionally, the incumbent reelection rate is much higher in the House (92%) than the Senate (79%).

*** Meet the freshmen… Take me to your Tea Party leader: Indeed, there will likely be 88 new Republicans (63 flips plus five potential pickups and 20 open-seat holds). There will be just nine Democratic freshmen (three pick-ups, six open-seat holds). It is quite the GOP crop, including at least 41 Tea Party-backed Republicans, who will, per NBC’s Luke Russert, be able to vote on a leader. The early favorite: Kristi Noem, who upended Democratic incumbent Kristi Noem Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin. It may be a shrewd move by Speaker-in-waiting John Boehner to create this position. Tea Party Patriots told NPR before the election that it was going to hold a meeting with just the newly elected members to implore upon them that if they vote how the Tea Party wants, then they can count on their support in 2012, but if not, they won’t get it.

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“U.S. President Barack Obama arrived in Jakarta on Tuesday for a visit aimed at boosting U.S. security and trade ties with Indonesia, and using the most populous Muslim nation to reach out to the wider Islamic world. Indonesia — Obama's home for four years of his youth and an emerging economic power but also a country where U.S.-backed military and police still stifle dissent — is an important destination for Obama for a variety of strategic and personal reasons, aides said. Its importance as a U.S. ally is on the rise, even if the joy over Obama's election has faded since he became president almost two years ago.”

The New York Times: "When President Obama visits Jakarta on Tuesday, he will find a city that, in some ways, has changed beyond recognition. A city of one luxury hotel and one shopping mall when Mr. Obama lived here between 1967 and 1971, Jakarta is now the overextended and overcrowded capital of the world’s fourth most populous nation. But Jakarta’s neighborhoods, including the two where Mr. Obama lived, retain enough of their former selves that the president would quickly find his bearings.”

“The presidential commission investigating the BP Gulf of Mexico oil spill challenged claims in Congress that the oil company and others sacrificed safety to cut costs,” the AP says.

In New York, closing arguments began in the trial of the first Guantanamo detainee to face a civilian trial.

The New York Times: "Prospects for Congress to authorize repeal of the “don’t ask, don’t tell” policy face new uncertainties as time runs out for the Senate to act and strong objections remain among Republicans and the most senior ranks of the military. The murky picture on Capitol Hill comes even as Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates said for the first time that he would like to see the Senate vote to authorize the repeal before the end of the year, and a not-yet-released Pentagon survey of active-duty forces and their families shows that the majority do not care if gay men and women serve openly, which the policy forbids."

“Members of the House Republican transition team emerged from a three-hour meeting Monday night saying that no decisions had been made about changes they want to implement but that a range of options were discussed,” Roll Call reports, adding, “The closed-door meeting explored topics that included a review of elements from the House GOP governing agenda, known as the ‘Pledge to America’; ways to rein in spending; changes to the House schedule; safety and security in the Capitol complex; and how to ‘ensure proper oversight by House committees,’ transition team spokesman Brendan Buck said in a statement.”

“[Rep. Pete] Sessions will opt against challenging Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) for the third-ranking job of majority whip in the new Republican majority,” The Hill reports. “The move by Sessions eliminates a possible showdown for the No. 3 position in the House Republican leadership, and gives him a chance to pick up more good will from GOP colleagues.”

The new Scott Brown: “Sen.-elect Mark Kirk (R-Ill.) could buck his Republican leadership in his first two weeks on the job and vote in favor of a campaign-finance transparency bill that the GOP’s top brass ardently oppose,” The Hill writes.

“The expectation that House Democrats will soon confirm Speaker Nancy Pelosi as their new minority leader, despite her leading role in last week’s disastrous midterm elections, has led to internal misgivings about party strategy that could fuel a fight over the second-ranking leadership post,” the Boston Globe writes.

“Representative Steny H. Hoyer of Maryland, the No. 2 Democrat in the House, said Monday that he would try to hold on to that position when his party slips into the minority next year as the leadership of House Democrats remained in turmoil one week after devastating election losses,” the New York Times writes. “The decision by Mr. Hoyer, who has served as majority leader the past four years, sets up a possible fight with Representative James E. Clyburn of South Carolina, currently the No. 3 Democrat, who said on Monday that he was still pursuing the No. 2 position as well.”

ALASKA: “Joe Miller hopes to make a comeback in Alaska’s U.S. Senate race when the Division of Elections today starts counting more than 30,500 absentee ballots,” the Anchorage Daily News reports. “Alaskans cast 13,439 more write-in ballots on last week’s Election Day than they voted for Republican nominee Miller… Both sides have gathered legal teams to monitor the ballot counts and prepare for a possible court challenge.” Murkowski’s likely lead comes from mostly rural areas, some that didn’t have a single person vote for Miller.

CONNECTICUT: “Republican Tom Foley conceded the gubernatorial election Monday to Democrat Dannel Malloy, saying that various problems with voting in Bridgeport were not enough to overturn the outcome of the race,” per the Hartford Courant.

FLORIDA: Really? “In his last two months in office, Florida Gov. Charlie Crist is considering a December surprise: a posthumous pardon for Jim Morrison, lead singer of The Doors, for indecent exposure charges after an infamous 1969 Miami concert,” The Hill reports.

WEST VIRGINIA: Forget about the rumors that Joe Manchin is switching parties. A spokesman said: “Joe Manchin is a lifelong Democrat, and he is not switching parties. This is exactly what is wrong with Washington — individuals try to put politics before our nation. Joe Manchin wants to go to Washington to encourage Members of Congress to stop partisan bickering and start putting our nation’s needs at the forefront.”

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro and Alexandra Moe
There will be a lot of new faces in the next Congress.

Based on results of Tuesday's election, 22% or more of the next Congress will be comprised of new members -- the most since 1992, according to numbers crunched by the NBC Political Unit and Vital Statistics on Congress 2008.

There are still nine uncalled House races, all involving Democratic incumbents. The results of those races could change the numbers slightly. Republicans lead in five of those, and if they do win, the incumbent reelection rate would still appear to be high 85%, but it would be the lowest in the House since 1948.

In the Senate, if Lisa Murkowski wins, then 84% of incumbents who sought reelection would return to Congress. It was lower in 2006 (78.6%). Traditionally, the incumbent reelection rate is much higher in the House -- 92% of House incumbents have been reelected on average since 1946 versus 79% of Senate incumbents.