How to spot a GOP wave on Election Night: Watch the early races in IN-9, GA-8, and KY-6… Tomorrow’s midterm topic: How to see if Democrats are on their way toward pulling off the upset and holding the House… If John Dingell’s in trouble, you know Democrats are bracing for a tough night… Obama campaigns in Obama country… Today’s presidential stop: Providence, RI, where Obama won 83% of the vote in ’08… But one Rhode Island Dem (gubernatorial nominee Frank Caprio) isn’t happy with Obama… How outside money is impacting this midterm season… Meg Whitman’s and Harry Reid’s closing ads… Profiling PA-4… And Mark Kirk up three in Illinois.

From NBC's Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** How to spot a GOP wave: On Election Night, which takes place eight days from today, we'll likely be able to tell very early if Republicans are on the verge of taking back the House -- and possibly more. Polls close completely at 7:00 pm ET in five states with a handful of key races: Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, and Virginia. (And we’ll begin to see returns in Indiana at 6:00 pm ET, when many polling places close in the state.) Let’s start with IN-9, which has become the quintessential swing district because Rep. Baron Hill (D) lost the seat in ’04, but won it back in ’06 and was re-elected in ‘08. This race is No. 42 in our House rankings -- right about the number the GOP will need to take back the House (because Dems will likely pick up two to four seats). So if this race is called for Hill’s challenger, Tea Party-backed Todd Young, you know it’s going to be a good night for the GOP.

*** Looking at IN, GA, and KY: Another place to watch is GA-8, because if Republicans are winning it, they could very well be on their way to a gain of 50-plus seats. Rep. Jim Marshall (D) won that district with just 51% in 2006 and 57% in ‘08. The other early House contest to watch is in KY-6, which could forecast a big GOP tidal wave if Republicans are winning it -- or are even running close. The congressman representing that district is Ben Chandler (D), who won his previous contests with 65% (in ’08) and 85% (in ’06). Other races to watch in that first hour: GA-2, IN-2, SC-5, VA-2, VA-5, VA-9, and VA-11. And closing at 7:30 are the key races in North Carolina (NC-2, NC-7, NC-8, NC-11), in Ohio (OH-1, OH-6, OH-13, OH-15, OH-16, OH-18), and in West Virginia (WV-1, WV-3). If Republicans are winning a majority of these 20 races, say hello to Speaker John Boehner.

*** Tomorrow’s midterm topic: We’ll profile the races that could tell us if Democrats are on their way to holding the House.

*** And if John Dingell’s in trouble…: Here’s yet another sign that Democrats everywhere are nervous: Over the weekend in Michigan, the party's longest serving House member -- John Dingell -- had to bring in Bill Clinton to rally the base just nine days before Election Day. “It’s time to make your vote two years ago mean something by protecting the forward progress and not, not, not bringing back the shovel brigade,” Clinton said. A recent Detroit Free-Press poll showed Dingell ahead with 53%. But per NBC’s John Yang, the last time Dingell was below 60% on Election Day was in 1994 GOP revolution. Dingell won 71% in 2008. Dingell is running almost entirely on what he's done for the district; this is the ultimate test of district vs. sending a message. Dingell's ALSO not helped by a weak statewide Democratic ticket.

*** Obama in Obama country: We’ve said that President Obama’s role in the final stretch is to turn out Democratic base voters, especially young and minority Democrats. Well, as one of us first pointed out yesterday, just look at the counties/cities where he campaigned last week: Portland/Multnomah (where he won 77% of the vote in ’08), King County, WA (70%), L.A. County (69%), San Francisco (84%), Las Vegas/Clark County, NV (59%), and Minneapolis/Hennepin (63%). And today, at 6:30 pm ET, Obama delivers remarks at a DCCC fundraiser in Providence, RI, where he won 83% of the vote. These last seven stops are places where Obama won, on average, 72% of the vote.

*** Obama’s campaign activity this week: On Wednesday, the president tapes an interview with Jon Stewart before the comedian’s rally in DC this week. On Saturday, he hits rallies in Philadelphia (rally the base for Sestak and four House races), Bridgeport, CT (this is more about CT-4 than CT SEN or CT GOV) and Chicago (IL SEN and IL GOV). On Sunday, he delivers a rally in Cleveland, OH (OH GOV, OH GOV, OH GOV, and a few House seats too).

*** Unhappy in Rhode Island: Not every Rhode Island Democrat is happy with President Obama as he stumps in the state tonight. Check this out: “The Democratic candidate for governor of Rhode Island is reacting angrily to news that he won't be getting the endorsement of President Obama… Fellow Democrat Frank Caprio told WPRO-AM that Obama can ‘take his endorsement and shove it.’ Caprio called Obama's decision ‘Washington insider politics at its worst.’ One of Caprio's opponents is former Republican U.S. Sen. Lincoln Chafee, running for governor as an independent. Chafee endorsed Obama's presidential run.”

*** How the outside money is shaping this election season: Is outside money enhancing Republican chances, or is it simply a side issue Democrats and the White House have used to change the subject? Well, to see its impact, take a look at today's NYT front page. “A vivid picture of how outside groups are helping Republicans across the country can be found here in central Florida. The incumbent Democrat, Representative Suzanne M. Kosmas, had a nearly four-to-one fund-raising advantage over her Republican challenger, State Representative Sandy Adams, at the end of September. Ms. Adams, low on cash, has not run a single campaign commercial. But a host of outside groups have swept in to swamp Ms. Kosmas with attack ads, helping establish Ms. Adams as the favorite without her having to spend on television.”

*** Whitman’s Hail Mary? In what appears to be her closing ad in California’s gubernatorial race, Meg Whitman (R) looks straight to the camera and says, “I know many of you see this election as an unhappy choice -- between a longtime politician with no plan for the future and a billionaire with no experience.” Then, in a reference to Jerry Brown’s (D) devastating ad comparing Whitman to Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R), she adds: “I’m not a career politician or a Hollywood star… If you want more of the same from Sacramento, then vote for my opponent. But if you want to get California moving again, I’m ready. Are you?” And speaking of closers, Harry Reid is up with his final argument against Sharron Angle: She will be bad for Nevada’s economy. Both closing ads are not the type of ads you see from candidates who are confident about their chances.

*** 75 House races to watch: PA-4: The Democratic nominee is two-term incumbent Rep. Jason Altmire, and his GOP nominee is lawyer Keith Rothfus. In 2008, McCain won 55% in this district -- which borders Ohio and includes the Pittsburgh suburbs -- and Bush won 54% in ’04. As of Oct. 13, Altmire had nearly $600,000 in the bank, while Rothfus had more than $130,000. Altmire voted for the stimulus, but against cap-and-trade and health care. Cook rates the contest as Lean Democratic, and Rothenberg has it Democrat Favored.

*** More midterm news: In Alaska, the three Senate candidates participated in a heated debate yesterday… The Washington Post on yesterday’s Florida Senate debate: “Things started off civil but gradually descended into chaos as Republican Marco Rubio accused Gov. Charlie Crist, running as an independent, of ‘heckling’ during a debate between all three Florida Senate candidates.”… In Illinois, a new Chicago Tribune/WGN poll has Mark Kirk leading Alexi Giannoulias by three points (44%-41%)… And in Maryland, a new Washington Post poll has Gov. Martin O’Malley with a comfortable leading over GOP challenger Bob Ehrlich.

Countdown to Election Day 2010: 8 days

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“A costly and polarizing Congressional campaign heads into its closing week with Republicans in a strong position to win the House but with Democrats maintaining a narrow edge in the battle for the Senate, according to a race-by-race review and lawmakers and strategists on both sides,” the Sunday New York Times wrote. “In the House, 28 Democratic seats are either leaning Republican or all but lost to Republican candidates, according to the latest ratings of Congressional races by The New York Times, while 40 seats held by Democrats are seen as tossups.”

“The phalanx of anonymously financed conservative groups that have played such a crucial role this campaign year is starting a carefully coordinated final push to deliver control of Congress to Republicans, shifting money among some 80 House races they are monitoring day by day,” the AP reports. “Bolstered by a surge in last-minute donations and other financial support, outside liberal groups and unions say they are stepping up their response in advertising and get-out-the-vote efforts, but remain largely outgunned by the scale and sophistication of the operation supporting Republican candidates.”

“Democratic National Committee Chairman Tim Kaine said on ABC’s “This Week” that he expects few changes for the party in the near term. Kaine said Democrats would hold the House, Speaker Nancy Pelosi (Calif.) would keep her gavel, and Kaine himself would keep his job,” CQ reports. “Steele had a very different vision of the midterm elections, predicting Republicans would win handily in the House and appearing optimistic that they could take the Senate.”

CALIFORNIA: Politico describes Republican gubernatorial nominee Meg Whitman’s closing-argument ad, saying that it “seeks to warm her up, in part by beginning with a remarkable concession: that the millions she's spent to define herself haven't really worked, that voters still see her as a distant billionaire and the election as an ‘unhappy choice.’”

FLORIDA: At a rally in Orlando, Sarah Palin talked glowingly of Marco Rubio as "mavericky" and someone who kind of "started a whole bunch of this stuff," NBC’s Shawna Thomas notes. Both Palin and RNC Chairman Michael Steele also railed against Rep. Alan Grayson (D-FL), who is currently involved in a tough three-way race with a Republican and a "Tea Party" candidate. Grayson has been accused of helping the third-party candidate in order to split the conservative vote in his district. He's denied these allegations. "Stop your perpetrating,” Steele said warning Grayson. “Stop your faking. Stop your pretending. Mr. Grayson you are no friend of [the] tea party."

ILLINOIS: “The U.S. Senate contest in Illinois could go down to the wire as Republican Mark Kirk and Democrat Alexi Giannoulias are still running close headed into the campaign's final week, a new ChicagoTribune/WGN poll shows. Kirk held a 44 percent to 41 percent advantage over Giannoulias… Kirk's support among independents increased from 38 percent to 50 percent, the poll showed, while Giannoulias' backing among unaligned voters was relatively stagnant at about 28 percent,” the Tribune writes.

Similarly, a Mason-Dixon poll shows Kirk leading Giannoulias 43%-41%. That same poll has Bill Brady (R) leading 44%-40% over Pat Quinn (D) for the governor’s race. President Obama’s approval in the poll dips to 51% in his home state.

MASSACHUSETTS: A Boston Globe poll has Deval Patrick (D) up 43%-39% over Charles Baker (R) for governor.

It’s a real race in MA-10, a Boston Globe poll finds. District Attorney William R. Keating (D) leads state Rep. Jeffrey D. Perry (R) just 37%-33%. That’s just a huge undecided number. MA-10 is the most conservative in the state with all Democratic members of Congress. President Obama won it with just 55%.

In MA-4, Barney Frank’s district, he leads 46%-33%.

NEVADA: “Outside interest groups have poured nearly $5.2 million into the race between Democratic Sen. Harry Reid and Republican Sharron Angle in recent days, and are expected to spent millions more on advertising before the Nov. 2 election,” the AP reports. “According to the Center for Responsive Politics, the expenditures between Oct. 8 and Oct. 21 bring total outside spending in the race to $13.5 million.”

NEW HAMPSHIRE: The Boston Globe: “Charlie Bass and Ann McLane Kuster once were old family friends, children of allied political clans that formed part of New Hampshire’s moderate Republican bedrock. But this year Bass and Kuster are waging partisan war for a prized congressional seat. Defying national trends that favor the GOP, Kuster, now a Democrat, had climbed to a 7-point lead in the most recent poll. The open Second Congressional District race remains volatile, with outside interests pouring money in and a blizzard of negative ads intensifying in the campaign’s closing days.” That poll was a University of New Hampshire poll showing Kuster up 43%-36%, released Oct. 15.

ALASKA: NBC’s John Boxley reporting from Anchorage, AK, writes that one word summed up Sunday night's much anticipated Alaska Senatorial debate, with Joe Miller, Lisa Murkowski and Scott McAdams: nasty. From the start, Sen. Lisa Murkowski (write-in) was on the attack, at one point calling Joe Miller (R) unfit to serve in the Senate. While Miller acknowledged Sunday that he had been disciplined for using government computers to participate in a poll. He was suspended for three days, but he said, "That's one of the things about me I'm not a perfect person and, in fact, I think Alaskans know more about me today than probably any candidate." Murkowski responded, "Joe your statement here this evening demonstrates I think again, the lack of fitness for the office."

More on the debate: “Ethics took center stage Sunday during a debate in which Alaska Senate hopeful Joe Miller said he was suspended for or docked three days' pay for violating ethics policy while working as a local government attorney in 2008,” NECN reports. “Sen. Lisa Murkowski, who's running as a write-in candidate after losing the GOP primary to Miller, questioned his fitness to serve in the Senate — a comment that drew loud jeers from the debate audience in Anchorage.”

FLORIDA: CNN recounts the Florida Senate debate on Sunday’s “State of the Union,” writing that it “seemed more of a two-sided contest Sunday as Republican front-runner Marco Rubio's opponents both targeted him… Democratic Rep. Kendrick Meek and Republican-turned-independent Gov. Charlie Crist both tried to portray Rubio as too rigidly conservative for Florida in the spirited hour-long debate.”

The Washington Post’s take on the debate: “Things started off civil but gradually descended into chaos as Republican Marco Rubio accused Gov. Charlie Crist, running as an independent, of ‘heckling’ during a debate between all three Florida Senate candidates. Ironically, Crist had denounced bickering between the two major-party candidates, but spent a lot of time talking over Rubio and demanding that he release financial records.”

The New York Times: “After two years of operating at loggerheads with Republicans, Mr. Obama and his aides are planning a post-election agenda for a very different political climate. They see potential for bipartisan cooperation on reducing the deficit, passing stalled free-trade pacts and revamping the education bill known as No Child Left Behind — work that Arne Duncan, Mr. Obama’s education secretary, says could go a long way toward repairing ‘the current state of anger and animosity.’”

More: “Mr. Obama came to office vowing to reach across the aisle and change the tone in Washington, a goal he quickly abandoned when Republicans stood in lockstep against his stimulus bill. Today, with each side blaming the other for their sorry state of relations, neither has ‘clean hands,’ said Senator Mark Warner, Democrat of Virginia. Yet even Democrats say that, as president, Mr. Obama has a special obligation to try to put an end to the vitriol — and that the future of his presidency may depend on it.”

Sarah Palin rallied with RNC Chairman Michael Steele in Orlando, FL. "We can't be thinking that we got it in the bag,” Palin said of the midterms, per NBC’s Shawna Thomas. “We can't get cocky about that. We got to keep on working extremely hard. We got to leave the dancing to the stars… You fire Pelosi. You retire Reid and their whole band of merry followers and we get back to putting America on the right track. You do fire them, and it's nothing personal. You just replace them with people who will do the job and will listen to the people."

Before Palin revved up the crowd, Steele asked them to take it down a notch and get in touch with their feelings. "I just want to take a moment, because in the silence I want you to feel something…I want you to feel each other's presence. I want you to feel that energy. I want you to understand how and why you got here. It is because of the work, the dedication, the commitment, desire to restore our country. Feel this moment… We, the Republican Party, are grateful for the leadership of the Tea Party, because they restored our faith in the Constitution. They reminded us what we forgot in 2006 and 2008. And you can't fake that."

NBC's John Boxley reports from LAS VEGAS, Nev. -- Newt Gingrich was in Las Vegas Thursday night, in support of Sharron Angle and talking jobs.

Angle addressed the crowd, taking aim at Reid, with her signature line: "He needs to take some responsibility, he says its not his fault about the economy. Man up, Harry Reid. He says there is no problem with social security. Man up. He says this war is lost, your general is dishonest, you owe us an apology. Man up, Harry Reid."

Gingrich was greeted to chants of, "2012, 2012." Gingrich replied, "Before we get to 2012, let's focus on November 2nd."

And he had some blistering remarks for the Democratic leadership.

On Reid: "The fact that senator Reid left Washington without passing a tax bill is an act of total and utter irresponsibility."

On Nancy Pelosi and her comments that food stamps stimulate the economy: "You have to live in San Francisco to believe this."

On Obama: "And its totally clear that Obama doesn't have a clue about the meaning of American exceptionalism, the nature of the Declaration of Independence or the American Constitution. Other than that he is a terrific guy."

On the White House: "The White House is surrounded by left-wing, PHD's in theoretical knowledge and people who have never created a single job and by the time they get done talking to each other; they get too tired to go out find somebody who actually created a job..."

Afterwards, Gingrich spoke to reporters, on a number of topics, including the blame game, "The economy soured under President Bush, but the economy soured after Reid and Pelosi became leaders of the Congress, the economic devastation occurred after Reid and Pelosi took over in 2007, with their policies, then Obama got in office and his policies made it worse."

His 2012 Plans? "We'll decide in February or March what we are doing. Clearly there is an opportunity to draw a contrast with a radical administration that creates a real choice for the American people about what kind of country we want to be."

On the Tea Party: "They are a force; they are a populist reform movement that represents a real desire to return to the Constitution and a real desire to return limited government. I think they are having a substantial positive influence on the whole national debate."

On Angle not speaking to the press: "I think she should have a press conference at least as often as President Obama...check how often President Obama has had real press conferences, very very seldom, less than any recent President."

Republican National Committee chairman Michael Steele said on Sunday that he can relate to candidates whose campaigns have been pockmarked by poor publicity over gaffes or misstatements.

"Folks make mistakes," said Steele during an appearance on NBC's Meet the Press, "Lord knows I'm familiar with foot in mouth disease."

Some GOP candidates -- particularly those who are relative political novices propelled to victories in their party primaries by Tea Party forces -- have faced criticism over statements made during televised debates and appearances over the course of the 2010 campaign. Last week, Delaware Senate candidate Christine O'Donnell appeared to be unfamiliar with the language of the First Amendment; Colorado's Ken Buck equated homosexuality with alcoholism during a debate last Sunday on Meet the Press. Nevada's Sharron Angle faced ridicule after telling Hispanic students that "some of you look a little more Asian to me."

Steele, whose two year tenure at the helm of the GOP committee has been marked by gaffes and lackluster fundraising, said that candidates often misspeak in "the heat of a battle" but that voters will ultimately choose representatives in Washington who will fight for their interests.

"What really matters is how voters receive that, how the voters look at those candidates," he said, adding that "people understand where their heart is."

Asked if O'Donnell would make a good senator, Steele said, "I think she would be. Again, I don't get to make that judgment. The people in her state get to make that judgment."

Here's the Los Angeles Times on President Obama's rally in L.A. yesterday:

President Barack Obama rallied thousands of loyal supporters at the USC campus Friday, urging them to defy skeptics who have predicted losses for Democrats and turn out in force on election day to give his administration more time to turn around the nation's flailing economy and deliver the change he promised in the 2008 election.

"We need all of you to fight on. We need all of you fired up," the president told the roaring crowd of students and admirers — 37,500 of them, by USC officials' estimates — who spilled out across the sun-soaked lawn of Alumni Park and the streets beyond. "We need all of you ready to go, because in just 11 days … you have the chance to set the direction of this state and of this country, not just for the next two years but for the next five years, the next 10 years, the next 20 years."

And here's the Las Vegas Sun on the president's stop in Las Vegas to stump for Harry Reid and other Democrats:

President Barack Obama poked some fun at his right-hand U.S. senator on Friday, telling a Las Vegas crowd that Harry Reid isn’t the flashiest guy around, talks softly, gives wonky speeches and “doesn’t move real quick.”

“But Harry Reid does the right thing,” Obama told a crowd of some 9,000 enthusiasts at Orr Middle School.

CLICK HERE FOR FULL VIDEO: WEEK AHEAD IN POLITICS

What's happening next week? Candidates look to either seal the deal or change the game.

From NBC's Mark Murray
Rand Paul's (R) campaign team has polled Jack Conway's (D) "Aqua Buddha" TV, and it suggests that the Conway ad has backfired on the Democrat.

Per the Paul poll that First Read obtained, more than 80% of Kentucky voters said they have heard of the Conway ad, which says that Paul belonged to a secret society while in college that called the Bible a "hoax," and that he allegedly tied up a woman and made her bow down to the god "Aqua Buddha."

Nearly 70% said the ad went too far, versus 31% who said it raised valid questions.

And get this: 45% of Kentucky voters (including 70% of Republicans, 53% of independents, and nearly 25% of Democrats) said the ad would make them more likely to vote for Paul. That's compared with 26% (40% of Democrats, 19% of independents, and 9% of Republicans) who said it made them less likely to vote for him.

The poll was conducted Oct. 21 of 1,200 Kentucky voters.

*** UPDATE *** The Conway camp is furiously pushing back against the poll, alleging that it was conducted at a Paul tele-town hall, which would make the poll suspect. In fact, the Conway camp played -- over the phone -- audio of that tele-town hall, in which a questioner asks about being "outraged" by the Aqua Buddha ad.

But the GOP source who emailed First Read the poll maintains that the survey in question wasn't part of the tele-town hall. "The poll is in no way associated with the tele-town hall last night." More from the source: "I can't believe their spin was that we leaked a tele-town hall poll. That's hilarious." And the source sends this poll's information:

Statewide telephone survey conducted October 21, 2010 - sample 1200 Telephone survey conducted Oct. 21, 2010 - Margin of error +/- 2.95 percentage points.
Pollster: Fritz Wenzel

*** UPDATE II *** Conway spokesman John Collins responds: "This poll is as laughable as Paul's tirade over whether he should answer questions about his own actions. Instead of making up data, Paul should try something he's never done - face the voters and answer questions."

From NBC's Adam Verdugo
Blue Bell, PA - Former New York Mayor and one-time presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani railed against the Democrats at a rally here at a local fire house. He was campaigning for Pat Toomey (R), who is deadlocked in a Senate race with Rep. Joe Sestak (D). Toomey had a big lead in the contest, but it has tightened significantly in recent days.

He frequently referred to the trifecta of "Obama-Pelosi-Reid," saying that it's important to "correct the Obama-Pelosi-Reid agenda" of "big giant government" this election.

"They want to make us like one of those European social democracies where the government runs just about everything." Giuliani said Toomey's opponent, Joe Sestak, may be the only person in the country that he knows that "wants to go further than the Obama-Pelosi-Reid."

"I don't know how much further you can go without going into the ocean," the former New York City mayor said.

"Barney Frank!" someone shouted from the crowd.

"You found one!" Giuliani acknowledged.

At one point during Giuliani's speech, someone in the crowd yelled, "You should be in the White House!"

Giuliani acknowledged the comment and told the crowd a story about a woman he met at the airport California recently. "This woman came up to me and said to me 'You would make a better president than President Obama.' And I said, 'Ma'am, thank you very much, but that is not a compliment.'"

"I know thousands of people that would make a better president than President Obama," he exclaimed. "I know hundreds of thousands of people that would make a better speaker of the House than Nancy Pelosi."

He continued railing on Pelosi. "No more Nancy Pelosi on Sunday morning television! That alone is worth voting for Republicans."

"Or on 'Saturday Night Live'; she's a big enough joke!" someone from the crowd yelled.

Maybe she can get a spot on "Saturday Night Live," Giuliani mused. "Or maybe she can take Juan Williams' place on NPR," said the former mayor.

"All the poor guy did was express his feelings," he said, defending Williams, a television commentator who was recently fired from his post at NPR for comments he made in regard to Muslims which his employer said were insensitive. "Juan Williams just expressed something that a lot of people feel."

He also said people should stop worrying about offending people when it comes to protecting American soil. "I would like to know, who is offended if I say 'Islamic extremism?'"

"We need an Italian president!," someone yelled from the crowd, referring to Giuliani's Italian background.

"Frankly, I don't care who's offended by it, because if you're offended by it there's something wrong with you," saying that Islamic extremists were an "embarrassment to decent Muslims."

"Any Muslim that gets offended by that better straighten out their way of thinking."

Giuliani, who flaunted the fact that he was wearing cowboy boots, spoke to a crowd of about 200. He said he won the boots in a bet in 1996, when the Yankees beat the Texas Rangers. After the event, Giuliani was headed to Texas to see Gov. Rick Perry, with whom he has made another wager on the Yankees-Rangers playoff series.

What's the wager?

You guessed it: cowboy boots.

If history is any precedent -- especially if Republicans win control of Congress -- assignment editors can probably plan on a Washington D.C. press conference featuring Big Bird and Oscar in the next few months.

In the wake of NPR’s decision to fire political analyst Juan Williams for his remarks about Muslims, Republican Sen. Jim DeMint announced Friday that he will introduce legislation to nix federal financing for the Corporation for Public Broadcasting, which funds NPR and PBS programming. (In fiscal year 2008, public radio and TV received 13.8 percent of its total revenues from CPB appropriations.)

“With record debt and unemployment, there's simply no reason to force taxpayers to subsidize liberal programming they disagree with,” said DeMint in a written statement.

The sentiment, echoed by conservatives from Rep. Eric Cantor to Sarah Palin, could set up a rerun of congressional Republicans’ previous attempts to reduce or eliminate taxpayer funding for public broadcasting often labeled left-of-center by critics.

It’s a back-and-forth as predictable as Oscar the Grouch’s enthusiasm for trash.

Efforts to reduce funding for public broadcasting date back to President Richard Nixon, who was irked by what he perceived to be anti-Administration bias on its public affairs programs. In 1973, he vetoed appropriations for the Corporation, which later agreed to shrink its control over programming decisions.

Newt Gingrich led another charge in 1995, labeling PBS “a little sandbox for the rich” and promising to “zero out” funding for public radio and TV. After a public outcry, the Corporation survived the onslaught, and PBS added several new programs apparently aimed at conservatives.

More unsuccessful calls for defunding came in 1999, when it was revealed that Boston public broadcasting station WGBH had shared its donor list with Democratic Party leaders.

And in 2005, CPB chairman (and Bush appointee) Kenneth Tomlinson renewed allegations that public broadcasting are liberally biased. But after a House subcommittee voted to completely phase out the government’s grant to underwrite the programming, a powerful lobbyist showed up in Washington to rally support to reinstate the funding -- Clifford the Big Red Dog. House Democrats held a press conference near the Capitol featuring the cuddly character, kids with handwritten posters, and boxes of petitions from viewers. The full House restored the money.

So, will this year be the one that the funding is finally eliminated? If it is, it will be a spending cut brought to you by the letters G, O, and P.

Ever wonder what Mark and Domenico do behind the scenes? Have you ever wanted to ask their opinions on an interesting topic? Now, you can! Each week, the dynamic duo will take questions from First Read readers in a new Web segment called, “Inside the Boiler Room.”

Where did the name come from? It’s what the late Tim Russert called the office where Mark and Domenico work; not many people see it (and don't necessarily want to), but if it stops working, you notice.

You can submit questions for Mark and Domenico in the First Read comments area, Facebook page, or tweet it, to @mmurraypolitics or @DomenicoNBC.

In this week's inaugural segment, check out the political unit’s favorite ads from this election season.

Produced and edited by Alexandra Moe
Shot by Alexandra Moe and Ali Weinberg

From NBC's Adam Verdugo
BALTIMORE -- Former President Bill Clinton thinks that voters need to pay attention to the facts like they pay attention to their sports.

"When we care about something that's really important to us, like football or basketball or the World Series -- some life or death deal like that," he said sarcastically as the crowd laughed, "I mean we know the facts, right?"

"You listen to ESPN talking about the last game in the National or American League baseball playoffs, why, you'd think you're listening to Einstein, the way they go through the facts," he said.

"It's only when something has absolutely no significance to us -- like the economy, the future of our children, the way the nation is going to turn up -- when we say 'don't bother me with the facts I got my mind made up.'"

"You're laughing, but it's true isn't it?" Clinton said.

Clinton's contention is that Republicans have been playing loose with the facts in recent ads, and he wants voters to pause.

"Suppose we think about it," he said. "This crowd," Clinton added, referring to the Republicans, "they're banking on you not thinking. They're banking on some people being so mad that facts don't matter and other people being so apathetic that facts don't matter."

Case in point, Clinton says: "The Republican argument goes something like this," he said. 'Hey, they got the White House and the Congress, and we gave them 21 months to get out of that hole that we left them. And we're not out so throw them out and put us back in. We may not be out of the hole yet but it was a real deep hole. At least we stopped digging."

The former two-term president said Democrats were asking for "four years to get out of a hole the American people gave them eight years to dig." It's only fair, he added.

His other message to Democrats: they need to turn out on Election Day. He cited statistics from the 2008 campaign in which African-American voters turned out in greater numbers than the general populace. And he geared his message to younger voters, calling them "tomorrow's America."

"None of these races would look like they do if tomorrow's America," he said, "the America that showed up in 2008, would just show up in 2010."

The 64-year-old former president also took some time in his remarks for self-deprecating humor, recalling a recent speech he gave to a young crowd at a university, calling himself "ancient history."

"It's kinda like going to the museum, except the mummy's not wrapped yet," he said.

Clinton made these comments in Baltimore, Md., in front of a crowd of hundreds. He was campaigning for Gov. Martin O'Malley, who is in a race against former Maryland governor, Bob Ehrlich. Clinton, a former governor himself, said it was a job he knew something about.

Clinton's visit came a day before early voting begins in Maryland.

A reminder about this midterm season: In recent times, one party has rarely held control of the White House, House, and Senate… And when it has controlled all three, it ended in a wave election for the other side… How well are Republicans managing the expectations game?... Obama stumps today in California (for Boxer and Brown) and in Nevada (for Harry Reid)… How do we know Pennsylvania is tightening? Onorato is gaining ground on Corbett… “Meet” to interview the RNC’s Steele… Previewing the top ballot propositions to watch… And spotlighting OH-6.

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** Checks and balances: If Republicans take back control of the House and maybe even the Senate, it will return American politics to its standard state: divided government. In the 21 Congresses after LBJ’s presidency, one party has held full control of the House, Senate, and White House just six times. Also since LBJ, the longest one party has controlled those three bodies is just for four years (1977-1981 and 2003-2007). And get this: Every time a party has had control of the three bodies, it ended in a wave election for the other side (1980, 1994, and 2006). So is what we’re witnessing just American politics returning to its natural state? Indeed, our NBC/WSJ poll in late August found that 62% of respondents said it was better if different parties control the White House and Congress, while only 29% preferred one party in command of both.

*** The expectations game: Of course, most of the polls, pundits, and prognosticators have settled on the consensus opinion that Republicans are set to win the House and get close to taking the Senate. And if there’s one thing right now that might make Democrats feel better about their prospects, it’s this: The DC consensus has often been wrong this cycle. Just when everyone thought Bill Halter was going to beat Blanche Lincoln, he lost. After we all thought Lisa Murkowski would cruise to primary victory, she went down to defeat. And when believed Mike Castle has learned from Murkowski’s lesson, he lost, too. So if the DC establishment could be wrong, the question becomes: Have Republicans mismanaged the expectations game, because anything less than winning the House and getting close to double-digit Senate pick-ups will be a big defeat? Imagine the infighting among GOPers if they come up short on winning the House?

*** Embracing expectations: Privately, Republican strategists admit that the expectations game has gotten out of control for them, with some analysts now predicting House gains in the 50s or 60s. But they’re embracing the expectations. In fact, they have helped Republicans and GOP-leaning groups raise a significant amount of money, which has enabled the GOP to expand the map. Bottom line: The expectations could end up being a self-fulfilling prophecy.

*** Obama out West: On the third day of his four-day campaign swing, President Obama is in Los Angeles, where he delivers remarks at a fundraising event for Sen. Barbara Boxer at 3:45 pm ET, speaks at a DNC rally (also featuring Boxer and Jerry Brown) at 4:55 pm ET, and tapes an interview for the Piolin Show at 6:25 pm ET. Then the president heads to Las Vegas, where he attends another DNC rally at 9:10 pm ET and raises money for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid at 10:45 pm ET. Tomorrow, Obama travels to Minnesota. By the way, how likely is it the New York Times report on identifying some of the Chamber's biggest donors ends up in his campaign stump speech remarks today?

*** Elsewhere on the campaign trail: Rudy Giuliani stumps in Pennsylvania for Pat Toomey, who also today participates in another debate with Joe Sestak. Other debates today: John Hickenlooper vs. Dan Maes vs. Tom Tancredo in Colorado; Dan Coats vs. Brad Ellsworth in Indiana; and Russ Feingold vs. Ron Johnson in Wisconsin.

*** Dems are coming back home in the Keystone State: Speaking of Pennsylvania, how do we know that Democrats in that state are coming back home? Because a new Quinnipiac poll shows that not only is Sestak gaining ground on Toomey in the Senate race, but that the gubernatorial contest is tightening, too. Per the poll, Tom Corbett (R) leads Dan Onorato by five points among likely voters, 49%-44%, down from Corbett’s 15-point lead last month. Remember: Pennsylvania is a state where the Dems’ traditional get-out-the-vote apparatus (including labor and minorities) can have an outsized effect. And, well, remember the PA-12 special: The Democrats have some intangibles on their side structurally. Republicans need a strong wind at their back to overcome it. http://bit.ly/bEbnTK

*** If it’s Sunday… : David Gregory’s guest on “Meet the Press” this Sunday will be RNC Chairman Michael Steele, whose committee finds itself at a significant cash-on-hand disadvantage compared with the DNC. Of course, GOP outside groups have helped to more than make up the difference.

*** The propositions: While the Senate, House, and gubernatorial contests will be the main attractions on Election Night, don’t forget about the ballot measures across the country. Some of the more notable ones: Prop. 19 in California (which would legalize the personal use of marijuana for individuals 21 years or older), Prop. 20 in California (which would remove elected representatives from the congressional redistricting process), Prop. 23 in California (which would suspend the state’s climate-change law), and Colorado Amendment 62 (which defines a “person” beginning at conception).

*** Monday’s midterm topic: A viewer’s guide to detecting a GOP wave on Election Night; on Tuesday, we’ll run our viewer’s guide to detecting how Democrats could hold on to the House.

*** 75 House races to watch: OH-6: The Democratic nominee is two-term Rep. Charlie Wilson, who was first elected in 2006. His GOP opponent is former defense contractor Bill Johnson. In 2008, McCain grabbed 50% of the vote in this district -- which includes the city of Athens -- and Bush won 51% in ’04. Wilson voted for the stimulus and health care, but against cap-and-trade. As of Sept. 30, Wilson had nearly $700,000 in the bank, versus Johnson’s nearly $230,000. Cook rates the contest as Toss Up, while Rothenberg has it Lean Democrat.

Countdown to Election Day 2010: 11 days

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President Obama “turned his attention on Thursday to convincing the female voters who helped deliver the presidency to him not to abandon the Democratic Party in its hour of need,” the New York Times writes. “In a series of orchestrated events, the White House sought to make the case that Mr. Obama’s two years in office have already been a boon to women all over the country… But for all of the cheers at Thursday’s campaign events, it remains unclear whether women will be there for Mr. Obama.”

“President Barack Obama rallied an arena full of supporters Thursday at the University of Washington alongside Sen. Patty Murray, whose seat could decide control of the Senate,” Roll Call adds.

The Washington Post reports that “President Obama will go on a four-city blitz right before Election Day, traveling to Philadelphia, Bridgeport, Chicago, and Cleveland over the final campaign weekend…Vice President Biden will accompany him to Cleveland. On Nov. 1, the Monday before election day, First Lady Michelle Obama will campaign in Las Vegas and Philadelphia, officials said.”

“This year, Boehner is using a different strategy as he tries to position himself as the next House speaker,” the AP writes. “He has diverted more than a quarter-million dollars of his business-funded war chest to 29 avowedly antiestablishment candidates who have been endorsed by elements of the Tea Party movement. The donations to these hopefuls, from Oregon to Alabama, show more than the Republican Party’s broad embrace of insurgents in a year when Democrats are on the defensive. They also appear to reflect Boehner’s pragmatic desire to promote ties with a new crop of impassioned conservatives, some of whom could hold the keys to a Republican takeover of the House.”

Orrin Hatch said Clarence Thomas does deserve an apology from Anita Hill. Hatch on Twitter: "People have got to understand that Justice Thomas and his wife are good honest people who deserve an apology!"

He was there? Hatch told CNN: "Look, I was there. I know this more intimately than almost anybody. And I can tell you that Clarence Thomas was telling the truth… I think this has probably grated on Ginni all these years. And I think she was probably hoping that maybe Anita Hill would admit that what she said was wrong."

Tim Pawlenty says he’ll decide in March if he’s running for president in 2012. Gingrich also says March, and Mitch Daniels says April, per GOP 12.

The New York Times front-pages, "Prudential Financial sent in a $2 million donation last year as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce kicked off a national advertising campaign to weaken the historic rewrite of the nation’s financial regulations. Dow Chemical delivered $1.7 million to the chamber last year as the group took a leading role in aggressively fighting proposed rules that would impose tighter security requirements on chemical facilities.

And Goldman Sachs, Chevron Texaco, and Aegon, a multinational insurance company based in the Netherlands, donated more than $8 million in recent years to a chamber foundation that has been critical of growing federal regulation and spending. These large donations — none of which were publicly disclosed by the chamber, a tax-exempt group that keeps its donors secret, as it is allowed by law — offer a glimpse of the chamber’s money-raising efforts, which it has ramped up recently in an orchestrated campaign to become one of the most well-financed critics of the Obama administration and an influential player in this fall’s Congressional elections."

Meanwhile, the biggest outside spender this cycle? It’s AFSCME. The Wall Street Journal: “The 1.6 million-member AFSCME is spending a total of $87.5 million on the elections after tapping into a $16 million emergency account to help fortify the Democrats' hold on Congress. Last week, AFSCME dug deeper, taking out a $2 million loan to fund its push. The group is spending money on television advertisements, phone calls, campaign mailings and other political efforts, helped by a Supreme Court decision that loosened restrictions on campaign spending.”

The AP: “Election Day is already over for more than 3 million Americans, and a surprising number of them are Democrats. Republicans are gaining ground in turning out early voters compared with their showing two years ago, but figures from the first batch of states that offer clues about early-voting patterns still give Democrats an edge in a number of states and counties. ‘If people thought the Democrats were just going to roll over and play dead in this election, that’s not what we’re seeing,’ said Michael McDonald, a George Mason University professor who tracks early voting nationally. ‘They have got to be feeling a little bit better with the numbers that they’re seeing.’”

That said… "More Republicans have cast early ballots than Democrats since early voting got underway Monday in Colorado--a state with one of this cycle's tightest Senate contests," The Hill finds.

“Mississippi Gov. and RGA Chairman Haley Barbour is poised to embark on a whirlwind trip through gubernatorial battlegrounds with a group of top GOP governors, showcasing Republican leadership in the states on what the RGA’s billing the ‘Remember November Tour,’” Politico writes.

The Washington Post reports on the paradox between being a rising Latino star in the Republican Party like Susana Martinez in New Mexico, Brian Sandoval in Nevada, and Marco Rubio in Florida. “The nation's fastest-growing voting bloc - nearly half the voters in New Mexico, for instance, are of Latino origin - has largely shunned the GOP in recent years. Yet those Republican hopes may be difficult to realize, if only because the GOP's anti-immigration rhetoric is a primary reason Latinos have turned away from the party.”

ARIZONA: “White powder delivered in an swastika-covered envelope to the Tucson, Ariz., office of Rep. Raul Grijalva is a toxic substance, the Democratic congressman said the FBI told him Thursday afternoon,” MSNBC.com writes. “Grijalva received death threats in April, shortly after SB1070, the anti-illegal-immigrant law, was signed. He called for a boycott in response. He closed his Tucson and Yuma offices as a result of the threats, the Daily Star said. In July, after he called off the boycott, staffers found a bullet and a shattered window inside his Yuma office, the Daily Star said.”

CALIFORNIA: Mike Bloomberg’s stumping for Meg Whitman today.

CONNECTICUT: A new Suffolk poll shows Blumenthal leading McMahon 57%-39%.

FLORIDA: Former President Bill Clinton campaigned with Democratic gubernatorial nominee Alex Sink yesterday, where he “questioned [Republican nominee Rick] Scott's ethics and called his campaign ‘name-calling contest paid for ... basically in taxpayer money that was funneled through his health care operations.’”

IOWA: Mitt Romney, Haley Barbour, Bob McDonnell, and Tim Pawlenty are all heading to Iowa for Terry Branstad (R). Per the Des Moines Register (via GOP 12: Romney will be there Tuesday, Barbour and McDonnell on Wednesday, and Pawlenty next Sunday.)

KENTUCKY: The Louisville-Journal reports that Bill Clinton will campaign for Senate candidate Jack Conway on election eve.

LOUISIANA: “The father of Rep. Anh ‘Joseph’ Cao died Wednesday at age 78, the Louisiana Republican’s office announced in a statement Thursday,” Roll Call reports.

MAINE: A Critical Insights tracking poll shows Paul LePage with a 32%-19% lead over independent Eliot Cutler, and Democrat Libby Mitchell fading to third with just 11%. And in ME-1, Chellie Pingree was up just 45%-40% over Republican Dean Scontras.
NEVADA: “Republicans are mocking the embattled Nevada Democrat for seeming to take credit for saving the world economy from complete destruction in an interview Thursday,” Politico takes away from Reid’s interview with MSNBC’s Ed Schultz. “People have been hurting -- I understand that,’ Reid told MSNBC's Ed Schultz. ‘And it doesn't give them comfort or solace for me to tell them, 'You know, but for me we'd be in a worldwide depression.' They want to know what I have done for them.’” More: The National Republican Senatorial Committee's Brian Walsh called Reid's statement "either the height of ignorance or arrogance or, most likely, a combination of both."

“Republican Sharron Angle again called on Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid to ‘man up’ and take responsibility for the state's woes as she embraced a new campaign phrase plucked from Nevada's only U.S. Senate race debate,” AP writes. “Angle said Thursday that Reid must accept his share of blame for Nevada's record unemployment, bankruptcy and foreclosure levels and demanded the Nevada Democrat acknowledge Social Security's faults.”

NBC's Brian Williams sat down with New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) for a piece that will air on "Nightly News" tonight. Per an advance excerpt, Christie criticizes President Obama for something Christie has won praise for: displaying anger.

CHRISTIE: Where I've been most disappointed has been --I really thought he had the opportunity, even though I didn't vote for him, I thought he had the opportunity to be a transformational figure. I thought because of his charisma, because of the way he presented himself to the public and the things he said during the campaign and believed in, that he could in fact go beyond partisanship and where I'm disappointed is, I think he's being incredibly partisan.

That's not say that Republicans haven't been partisan too, because they have but when you're president, your obligation, I think, is to set the tone and to embarrass others into changing theirs.

And I've been disappointed in the real partisan tone of the president has taken, both in terms of his policies and in terms of his rhetoric. And now he seems kind of angry about things when I see him out on the campaign trail. I don't think President Obama does angry well. I don't think it suits him well and so, I've been a little disappointed in that regard.

It’s been a recurrent theme throughout the last days of this midterm election cycle: “New poll shows [Insert Senate race that didn’t seem competitive three weeks ago] is tightening.”

According to some polls, candidates in a handful of states have made apparent gains after months of trailing. In Pennsylvania, two new surveys show Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak – who has struggled to stay within striking distance of Republican Pat Toomey since the state’s May primary – now polling within the margin of error. A St. Norbert College/Wisconsin Public Radio poll released Tuesday put Democrat Russ Feingold just two points behind GOP nominee Ron Johnson. In the pricey (and contentious) California Senate contest, a new PPIC poll shows GOP candidate Carly Fiorina catching up with incumbent Barbara Boxer. Gaps have also seemingly closed in Colorado and Alaska.

But what does “tightening” really mean, other than more fodder for analysts dissecting the state of the races?

Experts and pollsters contend it’s a normal part of the campaign life cycle.

“There’s just a natural tightening of races,” says Nathan Gonzales, who analyzes races for the nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report.

In the final weeks before a competitive statewide election, when activists are working to fire up their base and television audiences face a closing barrage of paid political advertising, voters begin to pay attention.

In this cycle, that especially means Democratic voters.

“The tightening is just mostly about more Democrats showing support for Democratic candidates,” added Gonzales. “There are folks who are calling this ‘a Democratic surge’ – I’m just not ready to call it that."

In some cases, Republicans might have already been mobilized because their side of the political spectrum was simply more interesting early on in their state's campaign contests.

In the Wisconsin Senate race, for instance, Democrat Feingold did not face a contested primary, while Republican candidates in other state races were forced to duke it out for their nominations.

“Democrats and Democratic-leaners just weren’t really all that involved in what was going on politically,” said Dr. Wendy Scattergood of St. Norbert College. “Their side wasn’t where the drama was.”

But now, Scattergood says, those Democrats may be tuning in and rallying behind their nominee.

Television ads could also be playing a role in mobilizing Democratic-leaners – and perhaps changing some minds within the dwindling but crucial bloc of undecided or soft “lean” voters.

Dr. G. Terry Madonna, polling director at Franklin & Marshall College, noted that a series of recent Pennsylvania polls appear to show a slight improvement for Sestak in the Philadelphia suburbs, where Democrats must perform well to retain retiring Sen. Arlen Specter’s seat. That bump, he said, may have been aided by advertisements criticizing Toomey’s vote to normalize trade relations with China. Democrats say the policy has led to job losses in the state.

Madonna says that there does appear to be some tightening in the race but that more independent polling is necessary to prove that the contest is really neck-and-neck. Two polls in the last two days have shown the contest within the margin of error, but various other automated or partisan polls have shown Toomey retaining a high single-digit lead.

While new poll releases are the bread-and-butter of political reporting and analysis, there is some truth to the hackneyed stump line that "the only poll that matters is the one on Election Day." There is often wide variety in how pollsters identify and classify the voters most likely to cast a ballot.

“Ultimately, polling isn’t about how people are going to vote. It’s about who is going to actually show up at the polls,” said Gonzales.

That, he added, is very difficult to predict.

From NBC's John Yang
Is Michigan Rep. John Dingell (D) -- the longest serving member of the House ever -- in trouble?

Despite the anti-incumbent political environment, Michigan's devastated economy, and the second-highest unemployment rate in the country, few thought the race would be competitive. After all, the district -- in the state's southeastern corner stretching from Ann Arbor to the Ohio border -- is so heavily Democratic that John Kerry swamped George W. Bush by 20 percentage points in 2004. And Dingell, who has not won less than 60% of the vote since 1994, has far outspent his underfunded challenger, cardiologist Robert Steele.

There's little reliable public polling in the race. But, with barely a week to go before Election Day, there are unmistakable signs of concern. One example: Former President Bill Clinton is making a hastily arranged visit to Ann Arbor on Sunday afternoon for a Dingell rally at the University of Michigan. In addition, there are signs that organized labor is shifting resources to the race as Democrats try to hang on to their House majority.

Steele, who says he was motivated to run by health-care reform, is using the slogan: "Time for a change." The seat has been held by someone named John Dingell for 77 years -- first the current congressman's father from 1933 until 1955, and then John Dingell Jr. ever since.

NBC/WSJ poll: Outsiders have the advantage over insiders… Good news and bad news for both parties on health care… Poll also shows public concerns over outside-group advertising… Breaking the GOP down into three parts… The men who would be the GOP Senate leaders if Republicans take back the Senate… The men and women who would be the Senate chairs if they win control… Profiling NY-24… And MoveOn goes on the offensive.

From NBC's Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** Outside game: Here's a scenario that's not outside the realm of possibility: Sharron Angle (in Nevada), Carly Fiorina (in California), and Rand Paul (in Kentucky) all win, but Mark Kirk (in Illinois) and Pat Toomey (in Pennsylvania) lose. What would explain this? Well, just look at our new NBC/WSJ poll, which finds that only 23% of registered voters would back a generic congressional candidate who has served in Congress for more than 10 years, but 48% would support someone running for the first time. Being perceived as part of Washington is a bigger problem this midterm cycle than being perceived as too inexperienced to serve in Congress. We're even seeing this dynamic play out in New Hampshire, where former GOP Rep. Charlie Bass is struggling. In fact, of all the ex-congressmen running for their old seat, Bass may be the one struggling the most simply because he is NOT running against another incumbent. Bottom line: The public is looking for fresh faces to send to Washington, not the same-old, same-old.

*** Good news and bad news on health care and the stimulus: Our poll also finds that there's good news and bad news for both parties when it comes to health care. The good news for Republicans (and bad news for Democrats): 46% believe the health-care law is a bad idea, and 36% think it’s a good idea -- which is essentially unchanged from the last time we asked this question in June. But here’s the bad news for Republicans (and good news for Democrats): 52% back a candidate who believes the law should be given a chance to work, while 45% support a candidate who wants to repeal the law and start over. So the public is against health care before it is for it? Exactly. Yet here’s more good news for Republicans (and bad news for Dems): 45% in the poll believe the stimulus is a bad idea, versus 35% who see it as a good idea. Overall, 50% say the government is doing too much, while 45% think it should be doing more to meet people’s needs. Those two numbers might tell us all we need to know as we head into Election Day.

*** Concerns about outside groups: So how has the White House/Democratic campaign against the GOP-leaning outside groups that have been spending so much on TV ads this midterm cycle fared? Per our poll, 74% say it’s a concern that outside groups have their own agenda and care only about electing or defeating candidates based on their own issues; 72% say it’s a concern that these groups don’t have to disclose who’s contributing to them; 71% say it’s a concern that the candidates who are helped by these groups could be beholden to their interests; and 68% say they’re concerned these groups are funded by unions or large corporations. Despite these concerns, our pollsters say that the White House/Dem campaign against these outside groups hasn’t changed the overall dynamics of this election.

*** Average Americans vs. large corporations: That said, there has been this shift in our poll: 45% of registered voters say Democrats in Congress are more concerned about the interests of average Americans, versus 41% who think they’re more concerned about large corporations. That’s a change from May when 52% thought congressional Dems were more concerned about large corporations and 35% said they were more concerned about average Americans. By comparison, 68% in our current poll say Republicans in Congress are more concerned about large corporations, which is essentially unchanged from May. And 53% say President Obama is more concerned about the interests of average Americans, versus 31% who think he’s more concerned about large corporations. Don’t be surprised if this becomes a major Dem message come 2012…

*** The GOP’s three parts: Finally, our poll made this discovery: You can divide the Republican Party into three parts: About a third of all Republicans say they don’t support the Tea Party, and these folks say the leading GOP spokespeople are Mitt Romney (19%), Sarah Palin (17%), and Mike Huckabee (16%). Another third of Republicans support the Tea Party but identify more with the Republican Party, and their preferred GOP spokespeople are Huckabee (23%), Palin (23%), and Newt Gingrich (16%). And the final third are Republicans who say they identify more with the Tea Party, and their favored GOP spokespeople are Gingrich (22%), Palin (17%), Huckabee (14%), and Glenn Beck (10%).

*** The men who would be Senate GOP leaders: If Republicans win back the Senate in November, NBC’s Ken Strickland has put together this list of the likely GOP Senate leadership:

Majority leader: Mitch McConnell (R-KY)
Assistant majority leader (whip): Jon Kyl (R-AZ)
Conference chair: Lamar Alexander (R-TN)
Conference vice-chair: John Barrasso (R-WY)
Policy committee chair: John Thune (R-SD)
NRSC chair: John Cornyn (R-TX)
President pro tempore: Dick Lugar (R-IN)

*** The men and women who would be Senate GOP chairs: And, per NBC’s Ken Strickland, here are the likely GOP Senate chairs:

Appropriations: Thad Cochran (R-MS)
Armed Services: John McCain (R-AZ)
Banking: Richard Shelby (R-AL)
Budget: Mike Crapo (R-ID)
Commerce: Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX)
Energy and Natural Resources: Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) or Richard Burr (R-NC)
Environment and Public Works: Jim Inhofe (R-OK)
Finance: Chuck Grassley (R-IA)
Foreign Relations: Dick Lugar (R-IN)
Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions: Mike Enzi (R-WY)
Judiciary: Jeff Sessions (R-AL)
Homeland Security and Government Affairs: Susan Collins (R-ME)

*** Tomorrow’s midterm topic: The key ballot measures across the country.

*** 75 House races to watch: NY-24: The Democratic nominee is two-term incumbent Rep. Michael Arcuri, who was first elected in 2006. His Republican opponent is ’08 nominee Richard Hanna. In 2008, Obama won 63% in this Upstate New York district – which represents Utica – and Kerry won 58% in 2004. Arcuri voted yes for the stimulus, but against cap-and-trade and health care. As of Sept. 30, Arcuri had more than $475,000 in the bank, versus Hanna’s nearly $420,000. Both Cook and Rothenberg rate the contest as Toss Up.

*** More midterm news: MoveOn is going up with 28 TV ads in Senate and House contests… In California, a new Public Policy Institute of California poll shows Jerry Brown leading Meg Whitman in the governor’s race, 44%-36%, and Barbara Boxer leading Carly Fiorina, 43%-38%... In Pennsylvania, a new Quinnipiac poll has Pat Toomey at 48% and Joe Sestak at 46%.

Countdown to Election Day 2010: 12 days

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