Christine O’Donnell may have received enough national recognition to prompt a Saturday Night Live cold open, but two new polls show that the Delaware Republican appears unlikely to be the state's next U.S. senator.

A University of Delaware poll released Wednesday showed O’Donnell trailing Democrat Chris Coons by 19 points. And a Fairleigh-Dickinson University poll showed Coons up 53 percent to 36 percent.

For all the national buzz that the Palinesque perennial candidate has received, her supporters in her home state are comparatively lukewarm about her bid, according to the Delaware poll. Only one third of O’Donnell supporters said that they would be “very disappointed” if she lost the race, compared to two-thirds of Coons supporters who said the same about the Democratic candidate.

Tea Party darling O’Donnell stunned GOP rival Rep. Mike Castle, a moderate former governor with broad appeal and high name ID in the heavily Democratic state, in the state’s Sept. 14 Republican primary. The Fairleigh-Dickinson poll showed that Castle would be leading a hypothetical matchup with Coons by double digits.

Both polls also showed the Democrat in the race with a substantial advantage among independents, a phenomenon that could affect other Tea Party-affiliated candidates. Only 25 percent of independents nationwide have a positive opinion of the Tea Party movement, according to the latest NBC/WSJ poll. And more than half of independents said they have a negative impression of Sarah Palin, whose endorsement helped to vaunt the little-known O’Donnell to primary victory.

From NBC’s Andrea Mitchell
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton dismissed rumors circulating today that President Barack Obama could be considering making her his running mate for his re-election race in 2012, saying that she has "absolutely no interest" in changing course.

Asked about the speculation by Time Magazine CEO Ann Moore at a professional women’s conference, Clinton said that Vice President Joe Biden is doing “a wonderful job” and that she has “absolutely no interest and no reason for doing anything other than just dismissing these stories and moving on.”

“Both of us are very happy doing what we’re doing,” she said.

White House senior advisor David Axelrod told NBC News this morning that any reports about Clinton replacing Biden on the ticket in 2012 are “absolute fiction.”

*** UPDATE *** White House press secretary Robert Gibbs told reporters Wednesday that the rumor is "absolutely not true."

"It's not a discussion" within the White House, Gibbs said, adding that the president believes that "the decision to pick Joe Biden is one of the best decisions that he has made in the past few years."

The report, he said, "is a bit of a head-scratcher."

NBC's Chuck Todd and Mike Viqueira contributed reporting.

Evidence how races can quickly change: Whitman’s now behind in CA… If she loses, that could have a disastrous downballot effect for the GOP… SEIU I.E. launches another Spanish-language ad against Whitman… How Rick Scott and Nathan Deal are looking stronger than some Republicans ever would have thought (although Alex Sink has a tough new TV ad)... Applying the Coakley Lesson to CT and KY… DSCC hits Kirk on flip-flops, while the Chicago Tribune highlights Giannoulias’ inconsistent statements about the family bank… And profiling VA-9.

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** Whitman’s woes: As pundits debate the idea whether Democrats can somehow change the trajectory of the campaign nationally, consider what's going on in California: The race for governor has basically changed in a blink of an eye (in this case a week). For most of this cycle, Republicans have been bullish on Meg Whitman's chances -- due to her personal wealth, her business success at eBay, and her sophisticated (and expensive) campaign team. And she had a slight lead at summer’s end. But in a political environment benefiting almost every Republican, Whitman now finds herself in serious trouble. A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Whitman trailing Brown by seven points (50%-43%), which matches other polling we’ve seen. (The Whitman camp, though, released its own poll yesterday showing that the race is tied among likely voters, 44%-44%.) The biggest problem for Whitman -- beyond her handling of the housekeeper/nanny story -- is that she can no longer spend her way out of the hole. A new report finds that Whitman has now spent $140 million of her own money. But if she’s behind or tied, is another $100 million going to matter?

*** The downballot effect: If Whitman collapses, that could have disastrous downballot effect on Republicans. The GOP nominees for lieutenant governor and attorney general -- potential SEN and GOV candidates, if they’re successful -- probably can’t win if Whitman doesn’t. Ditto Carly Fiorina in the Senate contest, who desperately needs a strong Whitman showing to beat Barbara Boxer. Speaking of Fiorina, anyone notice she has yet to put any of her own money into the general election? One of the reasons Republicans in D.C. were bullish on Fiorina over Tom Campbell was Fiorina's ability to potentially self-fund at least part of it.

*** SEIU’s one-two punch: Back to the gubernatorial race… Following up on its earlier Spanish-language TV ad that hit Whitman on her housekeeper/nanny problem, an SEIU independent expenditure unit is up with a new Spanish language ad pointing out Whitman’s opposition to undocumented immigrants attending California colleges. The ad features Cesar Chavez’s grand niece. “When Jerry Brown was governor, he fought alongside my uncle Cesar Chavez to garner fair wages for workers and help open the doors for a generation of Latinos to gain access to education,” the ad goes (when translated into English). “Now Republican Meg Whitman wants to ban undocumented students from attending college, taking away their opportunity to succeed.” It’s a tough one-two punch for the Whitman camp, which has really worked hard to get Latino votes in this contest.

*** Great Scott? What a Deal? While one candidate Republicans were bullish on -- Whitman -- finds herself in trouble in California, two other gubernatorial candidates whom GOPers considered deeply flawed -- Rick Scott in Florida and Nathan Deal in Georgia -- now have even or better odds of winning their contests. In a normal political environment, the fact that Scott’s Columbia/HCA hospital chain was fined $1.7 billion for Medicare/Medicaid fraud committed under Scott’s watch would probably disqualify him for higher office, especially in senior-heavy Florida. But right now, Scott’s either tied or slightly leading in the general election to be Florida’s next governor. (One Democrat observing the contest, though, is confident they’ll beat Scott, saying: “At the end of the day, voters are going to reject Scott.”) Sink has her first DIRECT attack on Scott up on the Medicare fraud story, using law enforcement officials from Florida to make the charges. Then there's Georgia's Nathan Deal, who left Congress before the Office of Congressional Ethics revealed he might have broken ethics rules, and who faces personal insolvency on a $2.3 million loan. Deal’s probably the favorite to be the state’s next governor.

*** The political environment trumps all -- in friendly and competitive states: These two examples are reminders how the overall political environment -- which is benefiting Republicans right now -- can trump even the most damaging opposition research. And this was true in 2006, when Democrats Rod Blagojevich in Illinois and Jim Doyle in Wisconsin cruised to re-election despite facing ethics questions, or in 2008, when Al Franken (a controversial and outspoken candidate) narrowly beat Norm Coleman in Minnesota. Here’s a handy guide: When the political winds are at their party’s back, flawed and imperfect candidates can win in friendly or competitive states (see Deal in Georgia, Scott in Florida, or even Sharron Angle in Nevada), but have a much harder time in unfriendly territory (see O’Donnell in Delaware and even Whitman in California).

*** The Coakley lesson? Here’s something worth paying attention to: the DSCC is advertising in Connecticut (despite the fact that Dick Blumenthal is leading), and the NRSC is now upping its advertising in Kentucky (even though Rand Paul is ahead). A theory why this is occurring -- the parties are fearful of screwing up these races. Call it the Martha Coakley lesson. But also don’t forget this about Kentucky: While John Kerry won just 40% of the presidential vote in the state in 2004, Dan Mongiardo lost by just one percentage point to Jim Bunning that same year.

*** DSCC hits Kirk on flip-flops: First on First Read: In advance of the upcoming Alexi Giannoulias-vs.-Mark Kirk debate on “Meet the Press,” the DSCC has released a new Web video highlighting Kirk’s flip-flops on the issues, like on TARP, gun control, and cap-and-trade. Meanwhile, this Chicago Tribune story might be problematic for Giannoulias in the debate: “Giannoulias consistently vague about his job at the bank.” http://bit.ly/a1MHlA and http://bit.ly/aYpKfM

*** 75 House races to watch: VA-9: The Democratic nominee is 14-term incumbent Rick Boucher, who was first elected in 1982. Boucher’s GOP opponent is state delegate Morgan Griffith. In 2008, McCain won 59% in this district -- which is located in the southwestern part of the state -- while Bush won an equal amount in ’04. Boucher voted yes on the stimulus and cap-and-trade, but voted no on health care. As of June 30, Boucher had more than $2 million in the bank, versus Griffith’s nearly $300,000. Both Cook and Rothenberg rate the contest as Lean Democrat.

Countdown to Election Day 2010: 27 days

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The Washington Post front-pages: “Taliban representatives and the government of Afghan President Hamid Karzai have begun secret, high-level talks over a negotiated end to the war, according to Afghan and Arab sources. The talks follow inconclusive meetings, hosted by Saudi Arabia, that ended more than a year ago. While emphasizing the preliminary nature of the current discussions, the sources said that for the first time they believe that Taliban representatives are fully authorized to speak for the Quetta Shura, the Afghan Taliban organization based in Pakistan, and its leader, Mohammad Omar.”

You don’t see this everyday… The presidential seal fell off the podium while President Obama was speaking. The president’s reaction: "That's all right, all of you know who I am," the president joked to laughter from the audience when he realized what had happened. "But I'm sure there's somebody back there that's really nervous right now, don't you think? They're sweating bullets," he said, laughing. "Where were we.”

In Minnesota, Vice President Biden joked: “If I hear one more Republican tell me about balancing the budget, I am going to strangle them. To the press, that’s a figure of speech.”

President Obama is putting solar panels on the White House. Some have tried to draw comparisons to Jimmy Carter, since he first installed solar panels during his presidency. They were removed during Ronald Reagan’s presidency. But the panels have become more popular and more efficient in recent years and can save energy.

Here’s the shiny metal object of the day: “An Obama-Clinton ticket could be in the cards in 2012, Pulitzer Prize-winning political reporter Bob Woodward said Tuesday. And in a surprise twist, Vice President Biden would take over Secretary of State Clinton's post, keeping the Obama administration's talent intact.”

But White House senior adviser David Axelrod called any reports about Clinton replacing Biden on the ticket for 2012 "absolute fiction." He was very emphatic about the denial.

The Alaska blog, Mudflats, uncovered a nasty-gram email that Todd Palin sent Alaska Senate nominee Joe Miller, after Miller gave Sarah Palin a tepid 2012 endorsement when he was asked on FOX if she were qualified to be president. (Miller’s answer: There are plenty of great candidates out there.”

Well, hell hath no fury like a Palin scorned. Here’s Todd’s email to Miller:

“Hold off on any letter for Joe. Sarah put her ass on the line for Joe and yet he can't answer a simple question " is Sarah Palin Qualified to be President". I DON'T KNOW IF SHE IS.
Joe, please explain how this endorsement stuff works, is it to be completely one sided.
Sarah spent all morning working on a Facebook post for Joe, she won't use it, not now.
Put yourself in her shoe's Joe for one day.”

Here’s Miller forwarding the email to aides:

“Just found this in my inbox. This is what we're dealing with. Note the date and the complete misconstruction of what I said. “

From NBC's Mark Murray and Chuck Todd
Back in the spring, remember when the political world was debating whether the failed Times Square bomber, Faisal Shahzad, should have been read his Miranda rights?

Well, now that Shahzad was sentenced to spend his life in prison, the Obama administration is taking a bit of a victory lap, pointing out how the U.S. justice system worked in this case (though with the help of a Shahzad's confession).

Said White House spokesman Nick Shapiro:

We are pleased that this terrorist has been sentenced to spend the rest of his life in prison, after providing substantial intelligence to our interrogators, and a speedy civilian trial. We tried the case in a civilian court, we were able to use everything that he said and everything that we uncovered for intelligence collection purposes. His trial served no propaganda purpose for al Qaeda, and only underscored the strength of our justice system. The case shows once again how our values and the rule of law can keep us safe against those determined to do us harm on behalf of terrorist organizations overseas.

D.C. Republicans are making the argument that one of the nation’s most popular Democratic governors is just too good for Washington.

In a new ad opposing West Virginia Gov. Joe Manchin, the National Republican Senatorial Committee highlights the Democrat’s approval ratings in the state but makes the case that the widely admired chief executive will turn into an establishment puppet if he wins the election against Republican businessman John Raese.

In the 30-second spot, flannel-clad locals assert that “Joe’s not bad as governor, but when he’s with Obama … he turns into ‘Washington Joe.’’

“We better keep Joe Manchin right here in West Virginia,” one man in the ad asserts.

No politician aspires to be unpopular, but it’s worth noting that popular governors like Manchin have faced bumps in the past in their efforts to get to Capitol Hill.

Nebraska Gov. Ben Nelson, whose poll numbers were in the 60s, lost his first campaign for the Senate to Chuck Hagel in 1996, and popular Massachusetts Gov. Bill Weld, a Republican, lost to John Kerry. Iconic North Carolina Gov. Jim Hunt lost one of the nastiest Senate races in history when he challenged Republican Jesse Helms in 1984.

Raese himself has given a well-known governor a run for his money before. In 1984, then-two-term Gov. Jay Rockefeller beat Raese by just four points after spending $12 million on the race.

Watch the ad here:

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
As we noted in First Thoughts, Democratic-leaning outside groups are being far outspent by conservative ones.

This morning, in a meeting with reporters at AFL-CIO headquarters, AFL-CIO President Richard Trumka said he expects labor unions will be outspent 20-to-1 by corporate groups aligned with Republicans.

Trumka declined to discuss the amount of money the union he heads is spending or plans to spend. He said the AFL-CIO plans 25 "touches" per union member.

He added that the AFL-CIO is playing in 18 Senate races and about 100 House races, but not necessarily with TV ads.

"Information trumps those ads," he insisted, his back to a view of the White House and Washington Monument.

He said, in particular, the union is focusing on six states with heavy union membership -- Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York, Nevada, Illinois, and California. A union "firewall," perhaps. Trumka also said the union plans to make a "serious run" at the three-way Senate race in Alaska. Democrats hope Tea Party-backed Republican Joe Miller and incumbent Lisa Murkowski, running a write-in campaign, split votes, giving an opening to Sitka Mayor Scott McAdams (who's running an ad invoking the late-Republican-Sen. Ted Stevens).

One place, however, where the AFL-CIO played heavily -- and wasn't shy about saying what they were spending -- was in Arkansas. Unions spent about $10 million to try and oust incumbent Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln. But Lincoln won.

Asked if he has any regrets about spending that much money there, Trumka responded: "Absolutely not, because when you have principles at stake, you defend your principles. And we'll do it again. You'll see us do it in more primary races in the future. Not less -- more. And some of them will be successful and some of them won't, but people will understand that we're willing to fight for working people."

He claimed the money spent created "enthusiasm" in Arkansas, and that they have more volunteers there than they ever had before. Lincoln, however, remains one of the most vulnerable incumbents in the country and is down double-digits in public polls to Republican Rep. John Boozman.

"You ever see that ad that says, you know, a cup of tea $2, baseball bat $12, shirt $25, the other one priceless?" Trumka said. "Blanche Lincoln -- priceless."

Asked if she would be worse than Boozman, however, Trumka said, "She gave us no votes. She didn't help working people. It doesn't matter if it's a Democrat or a Republican voting against you, the votes are the same."

Asked about the biggest challenge in talking to union members about President Obama or Democratic leadership in Congress, he said it was "misconceptions about the stimulus package and the bailouts, because Republicans have done a good job of skewering that. If it wasn't for the stimulus package, we'd be in a Depression right now. ... This president's created more jobs during a Recession than George Bush did in eight years as president."

Republicans, he said, are "a lot better at distorting reality."

Trumka insisted that voters who are undecided but become educated about what Democrats are trying to do, can be convinced.

"If all you're getting is Rush Limbaugh and Glenn Beck's version of America," Trumka said, "if that's where you get your news from, you're obviously going to have a different opinion of America than somebody that actually reads the facts and tries to get knowledgeable about various issues."

He added that the union is and will be hammering the issues of outsourcing and the minimum wage.

On Rahm Emanuel's departure from the White House as chief of staff, Trumka said, "He's pursuing his lifetime dream. ... I wish him luck."

He added that he just wants a "receptive" and "analytical" White House -- which is certainly hard to miss right outside his office window.

The findings of the latest Washington Post/ABC poll are similar to our NBC/WSJ poll from last week: Democrats are making up ground, but the GOP still has the edge heading into next month's midterms.

"Democrats have cut in half the GOP's early-September advantage on the question of which party's candidates voters say they will support on Nov. 2. They have also made small gains on the question of which party people trust to handle big issues, such as the economy and health care... President Obama's approval rating has rebounded to where it was in July."

But: "Despite these apparent signs of improvement, the new Post-ABC poll suggests that Democrats remain at a significant disadvantage... Among likely voters, Republicans hold a six-point edge, 49 percent to 43 percent, on the congressional ballot. At this time four years ago, Democrats led by 12 points. Then, Democrats also held a 19-point advantage when voters were asked which party they trusted to deal with the country's main problems."

The Post's Greg Sargent also digs up these numbers: "Forty-nine percent think the GOP would lead the country in a 'new direction,' versus only 43 percent who think the GOP would return to Bush policies. Apologies for repeating this, but the simple fact is that the GOP may have already achieved separation from the party of Bush that ran the economy into the ground. Voters may not be buying a core Dem message in the numbers Dems need."

In the battle for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination, Hillary Clinton crushed Barack Obama in West Virginia. And in the general election, Obama received just 43% of the vote in the state.

So it shouldn't be surprising that Republicans are trying to tie Democratic Senate nominee (and Gov.) Joe Manchin to Obama.

A new National Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee TV ad features three men -- wearing flannel and baseball caps -- having a conversation about how "Obama's messin' things up."

Says one man: "Joe’s not bad as governor, but when he’s with Obama…

Another interjects: "… he turns into 'Washington Joe'"

The one man replies: "And 'Washington Joe' does whatever Obama wants."

The ad's kicker: "A vote for Manchin is a vote for Obama."

As we've written before, popular governors have often struggled in Senate races, because what voters want from their senators and governors is often different.
*** UPDATE *** The Manchin campaign responds: "National special interests have joined Raese in lying about what Joe Manchin’s priorities will be when he goes to the US Senate. The only thing that Gov. Manchin has been a rubber stamp for is West Virginia and he will always put our state first by standing up to the Obama administration on cap and trade, out of control spending and the over-reaching regulations imposed by healthcare legislation."

GOP-leaning outside groups are blowing away their Democratic counterparts… Why did Dem groups disarm?... A potential downside to GOP outside groups essentially replacing the RNC… Wrapping up last night’s Blumenthal vs. McMahon debate… O’Donnell and Paladino air new spots in search of a makeover… Murkowski vs. the Tea Party Express… Obama delivers remarks at White House Community College Summit at 12:15 pm ET… And previewing VA-5.

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** Mind the (money) gap: As we mentioned a couple of weeks ago, Democratic federal campaign committees (DNC/DSCC/DCCC) have a combined $20 million cash-on-hand advantage over their GOP counterparts (RNC/NRSC/NRCC). And the DNC's impressive $16 million haul for September will only add to that edge. But in what could very well be the cycle’s biggest story, GOP-leaning outside groups -- like the Rove-backed American Crossroads and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce -- are more than making up the gap. According to Democratic ad-tracking numbers, outside GOP groups spent a whopping $34 million in August and September, compared with just $4 million by Dem groups. And that’s just in Senate races. In House races, GOP groups have spent or plan to spend some $30 million in more than 70 districts, versus $7.5 million by Dem groups. Now comes this Politico report: American Crossroads is announcing today a mammoth $4 million advertising blitz in eight key Senate contests. Indeed, the disparity is only going to grow in October, thanks to the fact that in politics, like, well anything in life: money follows winners.

*** Why did Dem groups disarm? This is turning into a financial blowout. Amazingly, Democratic outside groups are acting as if they’ve disarmed. Why? Some reasons we’ve heard from Democrats who are trying to compete on this front: 1) the economy is bad; 2) the Dem donor base is demoralized and tired; 3) some of the bigger donors are liberals, and they’ve been disappointed with the administration’s policies; 4) the president isn’t really courting the big donors; 5) Obama’s attacks on the Citizens United decision have deterred them from getting involved; 6) Obama doesn't have a long-time donor network, a la the Clintons (think Terry McAuliffe); and 7) many of the Democrats' best fundraisers are ambassadors right now. And here’s another reason: Dems got a tad complacent after Obama’s enormous money haul in 2008. The assumption was that money wouldn’t be an object, so Dem-leaning outside groups never really tried, and they believed -- deep down -- that the GOP outside groups couldn’t raise the big bucks. Well guess what…

*** The one potential downside for Republicans here: However, there is one potential downside to these GOP groups essentially supplanting the Republican National Committee as the GOP’s cash cow: These groups are dropping big bucks on TV ads, but are they doing the things needed for long-term success -- like building voter rolls or an effective GOTV operation? That's not something you can do quickly; it takes time. That said, this GOP outside spending should serve as a big wakeup call for Team Obama in 2012, because while he had an ENORMOUS financial advantage over John McCain (who didn't want to look like a flip-flopper on campaign finance issues), that probably won't be the case for the next GOP nominee.

*** Blumenthal vs. McMahon: Want to know why Linda McMahon’s campaign finally dropped its TV ad hitting Richard Blumenthal over his misstatements about his military service? Because her campaign wanted to make sure it was a key part of last night’s debate, and it was. Here was Blumenthal’s response, per the Hartford Courant: "I'm proud of my military services. On a few occasions out of hundreds, I've described it inaccurately and I regret it, I take full responsibility for it. It was not intentional but that is no excuse, and I want to say that I am sorry.'' Meanwhile, McMahon had to respond to the Blumenthal charge that she was open to a reduction in the minimum wage. “That’s a lie,” she said. “You know that that’s a lie.” The New York Times: “The disagreement stemmed from a recent appearance at which Ms. McMahon was asked by reporters if she believed the minimum wage should be lowered. She did not explicitly say it should not, and Democrats have pounced on that ambiguity to suggest she favors reducing it.”

*** Bewitched: In what has to be the first-ever political TV ad in which a candidate declares that he/she is NOT a witch, Delaware GOP Senate nominee Christine O’Donnell is up with her first general-election ad. “I’m not a witch. I’m nothing you’ve heard. I’m you.” she says to the camera. “No one of us are perfect, but none of us can be happy with what we see all around us… I’ll go to Washington and do what you would do.” This TV ad raises the same question that Sarah Palin’s vice-presidential candidacy two years ago: Whom do Americans want representing them in Congress and the White House -- folks exactly like them, or the best and the brightest?

*** Paladino’s makeover: Christine O’Donnell isn’t the only Tea Party candidate who has cut a spot in search of a makeover. “This campaign is not about my family,” a subdued Paladino says to the camera in a new Web video. “It is not about divorces or affairs. It’s about who has a plan to restore prosperity and economic growth to New York state.”

*** Murkowski vs. Tea Party Express: Per NBC’s Kelly O’Donnell, Sen. Lisa Murkowski -- who’s running a write-in campaign after her primary defeat -- is asking Alaska TV stations NOT to run new ads paid for by the Tea Party Express, a group that backs GOP nominee Joe Miller. Murkowski's legal team sent a letter "to all Alaska broadcasters reminding them that they will be held liable for knowingly running false advertising or for knowingly broadcasting false information." Murkowski aides claim the Tea Party Express accuses Murkowski and her campaign of trying "to influence the absentee vote count." They point to Alaska elections officials who say the Aug. 24 primary was conducted fairly. Murkowski said, "This ad is vile. Accusing me of influencing the absentee voter count is dirty politics at it worst." Of course, Murkowski has her own TV ad that takes a shot at the Tea Party Express, and has called the group “extremist.”

*** Obama’s day: At 12:15 pm ET, President Obama delivers remarks at the White House’s Community College Summit. And at 7:50 pm, he speaks to the 2010 Fortune Most Powerful Women summit.

*** 75 House races to watch: VA-5: The Democratic nominee is first-term incumbent Tom Perriello, who won by just 727 votes. His GOP opponent is state Sen. Robert Hurt. In 2008, McCain won 51% in this district – which includes Charlottesville but also the southern part of the state – and Bush won 56% in ’04. As of June 30, Perriello had $1.7 million in the bank, while Hurt had nearly $216,000. Perriello voted for the stimulus, cap-and-trade, and health care. Cook rates the race as a Toss Up, and Rothenberg has it Toss Up/Tilt Republican.

*** More midterm news: In Ohio’s gubernatorial contest, a new Quinnipiac poll shows that John Kasich (R) is leading Gov. Ted Strickland (D) by nine points (50%-41%), down from his 17-point lead last month (54%-37%).

Countdown to Election Day 2010: 28 days

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“Intending to talk about colleges and worker training, President Obama yesterday suddenly found himself in a spirited debate with a business advisory group about whose tax cuts should be extended and for how long,” the AP reports. “At a meeting of the President's Economic Recovery Advisory Board, Harvard economist Martin Feldstein pressed Obama to keep all the Bush-era tax cuts, not just the middle-class cuts the president wants to extend. ‘That would give a boost to confidence,’ Feldstein declared. SEC Chairman William Donaldson added that an extension would allay business and consumer uncertainty. Obama replied that his stand would benefit 98 percent of taxpayers. ‘You'd think [that] would provide some level of certainty,’ he said.”

Roll Call: “President Barack Obama may find that he has some surprising new Republican allies next year. With Democrats poised to lose seats and possibly control of Congress in the midterm elections, House Republicans are looking to the next year to restart their relationship with the White House. Members say they think Obama will have incentive to work with an emboldened GOP and see an opportunity to advance a shared agenda.”

Here's the latest Washington Post/ABC poll: "Less than a month before the midterm elections, the political landscape remains strongly tilted toward Republicans, although Democrats have made modest improvements with voters since their late-summer low point. Democrats have cut in half the GOP's early-September advantage on the question of which party's candidates voters say they will support on Nov. 2. They have also made small gains on the question of which party people trust to handle big issues, such as the economy and health care."

“House Republicans are already examining which Democrats might want to switch parties after Nov. 2 and are mapping out a strategy for how to persuade them to make the leap,” Roll Call reports. “Republican aides and lobbyists said there are a handful of Democratic Members whom GOP leaders plan to target, with Member-to-Member conversations beginning immediately after the midterm elections… Democratic Reps. Dan Boren (Okla.), Walt Minnick (Idaho) and Heath Shuler (N.C.) are all on the Republicans’ target list. Reps. Mike McIntyre (N.C.) and Gene Taylor (Miss.) are also considered potential gets. House Democrats, meanwhile, are working on a counterstrategy to try to thwart any GOP poaching, and they are even eyeing a few Republicans they think might be willing to join their ranks.”

It’s not the first time… “Sarah Palin's trip to Miami this week has been postponed, less than a week before the former vice presidential nominee was scheduled to appear at the AmericanAirlines Arena,” NBC Miami reports. “Tea Party Group SFLA Conservative, which was promoting the Oct. 6 event that was to be hosted by the Liberty and Freedom Foundation, said Sunday that a 'scheduling conflict' led to the postponement of the event.” Tickets had been sold for the event in September. The Hill notes: “Palin's visit to Miami [would have been] five days before President Obama is scheduled to appear at a fundraiser for congressional Democrats at the home of Miami Heat legend Alonzo Mourning.” http://bit.ly/bweWs8 and

Here’s video of Mitt Romney stumping for New Mexico gubernatorial nominee Susana Martinez.

NBC's Shawna Thomas reports from West Des Moines, Iowa, where New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie was campaigning for Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad. New York gubernatorial candidate Carl Paladino has asked for Chrstie's support, but hasn't gotten it. In an interview with Fox, Paladino was asked, "Do you think that the party establishment is telling Chris Christie, you’re a maverick but this guy is crazy, hands off him?" Paladino responded: "Yes. So what. Go ahead. They’re welcome. I’m going to win the election. We’re going to take Andrew down."

A reporter asked Christie at a press conference following Branstad's fundraiser about it. Christie responded this way: "I’m happy that Mr. Paladino said nice things about me. It’s better than him saying bad things. I choose the people that I want to come and support and endorse. No one chooses it for me. So the idea that, you know, someone says ‘the party establishment is telling me something’ I mean, you know, who’s he talking about exactly? I listen and go to the beat of my own drummer on these things, you know? So if he believes that there’s somebody trying to prevent me from getting involved in something, then he doesn’t know me that well. So, I’ve gotten requests, as I’ve told you, from more than 30 states to be involved. I’m the Governor of New Jersey and I got work to do in New Jersey. So we’ve picked 13 states where I’ll go to help people because I believe deeply in those candidates and in my ability to be able to help them get over the finish line on November 2nd. That’s why I’m here with Terry Branstad because I believe in him…I’ve never met Mr. Paladino. I’ve never spoken to him so I don’t know how he would know any of that but I thank him for his kind words.”

From NBC's Adam Verdugo
STRUTHERS, Ohio -- Vice President Joe Biden paid a visit Monday to an aluminum-manufacturing plant in Northeast Ohio to lend a hand to Gov. Ted Strickland. The vice president told a crowd of several hundred gathered here that the Obama administration needs partners like Gov. Strickland in the states because "states are the incubators of progress."

“We need Ted,” Biden exclaimed. “The stakes matter.”

Biden’s visit to the Buckeye State was his second in two weeks, and it comes at a time when polling shows the governor’s race is tight. Last week, a CBS/New York Times poll had the race between Strickland and former congressman John Kasich essentially tied with Kasich up 43%-42%.

Kasich has been attacking Strickland’s record on job creation and taxes. Strickland, Biden argued, is responsible for balancing two budgets without raising taxes and creating thousands of jobs. “He’s done it all while dealing with this God-awful recession that his opponent’s Republican policies helped create," Biden said.

Biden also took the opportunity to tout some of the administration's latest successes, such as the new health-care reforms that took effect recently, and hit Republicans on their latest governing blueprint. He said the GOP’s “Pledge to America” was “the exact same thing they were doing before.”

“This is not your grandfather’s Republican Party,” Biden said. “This is the Republican Tea Party. This is the party of ‘repeal and repeat.’”

From NBC's Shawna Thomas
Cedar Rapids, Iowa -- If Michelle Rhee, the current Washington, D.C., public schools chancellor, is looking for a job, former Gov. Terry Branstad (R-IA) would like to at least have a conversation with her. At a Rotary Club event here, the former governor who is trying to drop the word former from his title, took a question at the very end of the event about what he would do better if he were to find himself in Des Moines again.

"I think one of the most important things is the people you choose to surround yourself with," Branstad responded.

And one of the people he would like to consider bringing in, he said, is Rhee.

"The Director of Education position is open in Iowa, right?" Branstad said. "I don't know if you've been watching on television, but this woman that's been the director of education in Washington, D.C., she's probably going to lose her job. But she's probably one of the most leading innovators there is. This is the kind of person that we need to get to run the Department of Education in the state of Iowa. I don't know if we can get her or not. I've heard that the mayor lost and because they laid off a lot of teachers because they did it on the basis of results, and they're trying to improve education. And I guess I'm willing to take a risk with somebody that's willing to make the tough decisions to improve education, because I want to see us back in the leadership position."

Rhee was the only person mentioned by name in Brandstad's speech. His opponent, current Gov. Chet Culver (D-IA) barely got a mention. The audience members' questions and Branstad's speech, for the most part, focused on state taxes and how hard it has been for communities such as this one to recover from the devastating floods of 2008.

Tonight, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie will appear with Branstad at a fundraiser and press conference in Des Moines.

Put this one on the list of proposals from conservative candidates that make Democratic operatives smile: In the past week, two Republican Senate candidates have suggested they have concerns about the federal minimum wage.

Alaska Republican Joe Miller, in an interview with ABC News and Politico, said that minimum wage rates should be left up the states. “There should not be” a federal rule regulating low pay, he said. “That is not within the scope of the powers that are given to the federal government.”

And last week, Connecticut GOPer Linda McMahon confessed to being unsure what the minimum wage rate is – after saying that she thinks that it should be reviewed and possibly lowered.

Democrats leapt on both stories, painting the Republicans (particularly the affluent McMahon, who has vowed to spend $50 million of her own money on her race) as out of touch with the plight of the American worker.

Neither Miller’s nor McMahon’s home state has a high population of workers receiving minimum wage.

About one percent of Alaska workers 16 and over receive hourly rates at or below the federal minimum wage, per 2008 numbers from the Bureau of Labor statistics. That's the second-lowest proportion in the country after Oregon.

In Connecticut, it’s 1.8 percent -- also well below the national average of three percent of workers who make at or below minimum wage.

Msnbc.com's Tom Curry reports: Move over Election Day, make way for Election Month. (Full story here.) Voters across the nation will cast their votes for federal, state and local offices on Nov. 2. But in Iowa, they began voting two weeks ago and can take advantage of early participation through Oct. 30.

In Ohio, voters started casting ballots last Tuesday, and early voting runs until Nov. 1. Californians can vote by mail and counties begin mailing ballots out Monday. In West Virginia, where a suddenly competitive U.S. Senate race has emerged, the conservative group American Crossroads announced last week it's working to deliver absentee ballot mailers and make early voting notifications in that state. Early voting begins there on Oct. 13. By the end of this week, voters in ten states will have started casting ballots. In all, 36 states and the District of Columbia have adopted some form of pre-Election Day voting. ...

According to the Early Voting Information Center at Reed College in Portland, Ore., about one-fifth of the electorate voted early in 2004, one-quarter did in 2006, and one-third in 2008.

Here's yet another wacky bit of Christine O'Donnell news. Apparently, in a 2006 GOP debate for Delaware Senate, she claimed said she had access to "classified information" that showed China was plotting to take over the United States.

AP:

Republican Senate nominee Christine O'Donnell of Delaware said in a 2006 debate that China was plotting to take over America and claimed to have classified information about the country that she couldn't divulge. O'Donnell's comments came as she and two other Republican candidates debated U.S. policy on China during Delaware's 2006 Senate primary, which O'Donnell ultimately lost. She said China had a "carefully thought out and strategic plan to take over America" and accused one opponent of appeasement for suggesting that the two countries were economically dependent and should find a way to be allies.

"That doesn't work," she said. "There's much I want to say. I wish I wasn't privy to some of the classified information that I am privy to."

"A country that forces women to have abortions and mandates that you can only have one child and will not allow you the freedom to read the Bible, you think they can be our friend?" she asked. "We have to look at our history and realize that if they pretend to be our friend it's because they've got something up their sleeve."

When her opponent challenged her claim about having secret information, O'Donnell suggested she had received it through nonprofit groups she worked with that frequently sent missionaries there. O'Donnell's campaign didn't immediately respond to questions about the comments.

In a new ad, Connecticut Republican Linda McMahon is directly attacking her Senate opponent for incorrectly implying that he served in the Vietnam War.

The new spot comes just hours before the first debate between McMahon and Democratic candidate Richard Blumenthal, whose statements about his service in the war were first reported by The New York Times in May.

The spot includes a video clip of Blumenthal discussing the national reception that troops received “when we returned,” from Vietnam, suggesting that he had served overseas. It also replays a clip revealed earlier this year in which Blumenthal spoke about changes in American attitudes about war “since the days that I served in Vietnam.”

“Would you lie about serving in a war?" a narrator asks. "Dick Blumenthal did again and again. He covered one lie with another. He lied about Vietnam. What else is he lying about?"

According to the Times, Blumenthal received five military deferments between 1965-1970 and ultimately served in a Marine Reserve unit based in the United States. He has said that he has “misspoken” about his military record but that his "intention has always been to be completely clear and accurate and straightforward, out of respect to the veterans who served in Vietnam.”

Newt Gingrich is warning that “the Left are planning to subvert the will of the American people” with it. Rep. Tom Price of Georgia unsuccessfully introduced legislation to quash it. And three Republican Senate candidates are making the argument that they are uniquely positioned to stand in its way.

Republicans are threatening that a lame duck session of Congress -- when members who have retired or been voted out of office will return with their colleagues to cast a final series of votes before the next session begins in January -- will be packed with legislative activity as Democrats hurry to ram through progressive proposals before an expected influx of new GOP members.

Because of special election rules in Delaware, West Virginia, and Illinois, the senators elected in those states on Nov. 2 will be seated almost immediately. Republican candidates Christine O’Donnell and John Raese have used their ability to “stop the lame duck” legislation as a talking point during their campaigns, and Mark Kirk of Illinois has even launched a website called saveusfromthelameduck.com.

The major issue that Congress is expected to address in the lame duck session will be a vote on the extension of tax cuts set to expire at the end of the year. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., has filed cloture on a handful of other bills -- including one that would address food safety regulations and the stalled energy overhaul bill . Also on the to-do list: an omnibus spending bill to fund the government, the ratification of an arms treaty, and possibly another attempt at the repeal of the Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell policy for gays in the military.

But it’s unclear how many of those agenda items will actually be passed, no matter how the election turns out.

Lame duck sessions generally involve more congressional waddling than soaring legislative achievements – or even broken gridlock. And it’s worth noting that, in the United States Senate, the 21 Democrats up for re-election in 2012 likely won't be eager to incur the wrath of their constituents if the ballot-box rejection of many of their colleagues is still fresh in their minds.

Lame duck sessions may be unpopular, but they’re no longer uncommon. There have been 17 lame duck sessions since 1935, when the passage of the 20th amendment adjusted the start date of new members to create today’s two month gap between Election Day and the start of the new Congress. Such sessions were generally sporadic until the mid-1990s; seven of the last eight Congresses have held them.

The term “lame duck” was born among the brokers of the London stock exchange in the 18th century, who used it as a slang term for those who defaulted on their debts.

The first lame duck session was, well, pretty lame. In 1940, international tensions prompted congressional leaders to meet regularly without taking an extended break for the election. But very little was actually accomplished in the days after Franklin D. Roosevelt was elected for an unprecedented third term, in part because the House and Senate chambers were being repaired, forcing members to meet in alternate rooms. There often weren’t enough lawmakers around for a quorum.

But there have been some productive lame duck sessions, even some after one party had made substantial gains on Election Day.

In 1980, Democrats lost control of the Senate but not the House. In a lame duck session between Nov. 12 and Dec. 16, the House enacted over 100 laws, including a controversial “superfund” bill for cleaning up chemical contamination. And in 1994, after Democrats suffered spectacular losses on Election Day, the Senate finally allowed a vote on the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, the most ambitious international trade agreement in the nation’s history. It passed with a broad bipartisan majority through both chambers.

The most dramatic lame duck session to date was in 1998, when President Bill Clinton was impeached by the House during a lame duck Congress. (The subsequent Senate trial occurred after the new Congress began. Clinton’s lawyers considered using the lame-duck status of the House to argue that the impeachment vote should be voided, but ultimately decided against it.)

Participating in the vote that ultimately approved the articles of impeachment were 21 Republicans -- including retiring Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich -- and 17 Democrats who would not be returning for the next Congress. Only one departing lawmaker, Democrat Rep. Paul McHale of Pennsylvania, broke ranks with his party on the vote.

Surprise! It's October. … Whitman blames Brown for housekeeper issue. … Rand Paul-Jack Conway debate health care, stimulus, Social Security and who's in touch with Kentucky. … An election season when debates could matter. … Critics hit Raese residency again … Rahm's 'Telling it like it is'… Profiling TN-8.

From NBC's Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** An October to remember? One month out before Election Day, it’s worth reminding everyone that Octobers matter in American politics. It’s the time in the cycle when campaigns start feeling the heat; front-runners see their leads shrink; debates take place; gaffes get magnified; and voters really begin to tune in. Indeed, something unexpected is bound to happen -- it almost always does. Remember: Although it first broke in late September, Mark Foley’s Page-gate was an October story that certainly had an impact on the ’06 midterms. And already in the last few days, we’ve seen a housekeeper come out of nowhere (CA GOV) and a father who was once Bozo the Clown (DE SEN). What’s next? It’s October, folks…

*** Whitman’s blame game: Speaking of that housekeeper who came out of nowhere… Anyone who follows politics or works in the business knows that a large part is dealing with the unexpected -- a crisis, scandal, controversy, etc. And in many cases, how a candidate deals with the unexpected tells a lot about their ability to handle the job itself. But in her first foray into politics, and dealing with her first real crisis (over her ex-housekeeper’s immigration status), Meg Whitman has decided to blame her opponent for her current woes. During Saturday’s Univision debate, Whitman “turned to [Democratic opponent Jerry] Brown and said he ‘should be ashamed’ of ‘sacrificing Nicky Díaz on the altar of your political ambitions,’” the New York Times recounted. Brown responded, “Don’t run for governor if you can’t stand up on your own two feet and say, ‘Hey, I made a mistake.’”

*** Sunday’s Paul-Conway debate: Here’s the how the Lexington Herald-Leader covered yesterday’s Rand Paul-vs.-Jack Conway debate: “Paul accused Conway of being a surrogate for President Barack Obama's agenda, citing Conway's support for a federal health care overhaul law and the federal stimulus bill. 'I think this election really is about the president's agenda,' Paul said... Meanwhile, Conway continued to highlight past statements by Paul that show 'he's out of touch with the mainstream values of Kentucky.' 'There's a real clear choice between someone who has taken on the drug issue and someone who says drugs aren't a pressing issue, someone who stands up to criminals and someone who says non-violent behavior shouldn't be a crime, someone who supports the rights of the disabled and someone who has said that he is against the American Disabilities Act, between someone who is going to stand up and protect Medicare and someone who says Medicare needs a $2,000 deductible.'" If Democrats were looking for a game-changer of a moment, this debate didn’t provide it.

*** When debates matter: Speaking of debates, wrestling mogul Linda McMahon and state Attorney General Richard Blumenthal square off tonight in their first Senate debate. Debates in races like this Connecticut Senate race, the California governor's race, and Nevada Senate could be determining factors for voters who are unconvinced by either candidate. For this debate tonight, it's the rare instance where the underdog, McMahon, is more camera comfortable, than the frontrunner, Blumenthal. And yet McMahon’s been the more gaffe-prone one of late, in particular her comments about the minimum wage gave Blumenthal the “out of touch” opening. One other thing to watch for tonight: how much does Blumenthal hit her on the culture of wrestling vs. simply hitting her for being too much part of a “corporate culture.” There are also debates today in the Senate races in Ohio and North Dakota and the at-large House race in North Dakota, where incumbent Earl Pomeroy is vulnerable. (Vice President Biden is in Ohio today to campaign for Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland.)

*** ‘Take me home… West Virginia’: Wealthy Republican John Raese’s residency is becoming an issue again in his bid for the Senate. Raese, who “owns a steel fabricating business and a limestone company and is part owner of a statewide radio network and Morgantown newspaper,” also “owns homes in Florida, West Virginia and Colorado.” The Times West Virginian writes, “There is nothing wrong with that. However, as a Senate candidate, the question of where Raese lives means more. Whoever wins the Senate seat in November will have to be a resident of West Virginia the day that person is elected, according to Article I, Section 3 of the U.S. Constitution.” This also became an issue for Raese in 2006 when he ran for the Senate and in his primary bid this year. During the primary, he said, “I've never been a resident of Florida. I pay taxes and I live here in West Virginia. … My wife isn't running for U.S. Senate. I am.” (Sound a little like Maine's Paul LePage?) Residency issues are never huge deals in Senate races (see Clinton, Hillary), but with Raese now being treated as an equal to Manchin in his chances to win this seat, how he handles this new scrutiny will tell us whether he’s ready for the big leagues. His answer that the Florida Homestead exemption was for his wife could strike some as hair-splitting. When a couple has residency in separate states, it makes it easier for an opponent to paint them as out of touch because it’s usually very wealthy folks who can do that.

*** Telling it like it is: As expected, Rahm Emanuel launched his Web site for Chicago mayor over the weekend, and it contains this video of Emanuel: “We need leadership that's tough enough to say no when it needs to be said, and smart enough to know what government should do -- and also what it can't do,” he says in it. “There's another thing we've learned over the years: To keep Chicago moving forward, every community must participate. This city belongs to all of us, and every person has a role to play in building its future. So as I prepare to run for mayor, I'm going to spend the next few weeks visiting our neighborhoods - at grocery stores, L stops, bowling alleys, and hot dog stands. I'm calling this the ‘Tell It Like It Is’ tour, because I want to hear from you -- in blunt, Chicago terms -- what you think about our city, and how the next mayor and you, can make it better.” It was a very straight forward video, Rahm with no-tie on what appeared to be a semi-barren room. He’s walking a fine line between starting his campaign and not sucking up oxygen from the two Democrats who need the most help THIS November: Alexi and Quinn.

*** Speaking of White House turnover: The news over the weekend that Democratic activists are being sounded out about the idea of Robert Gibbs taking over the chairmanship of the DNC is about a couple of things: (1) With the GOP presidential campaign heating up, having a strong spokesperson, who is comfortable on camera, may be the No. 1 prerequisite in 2011. It’s one way to both connect the White House to the politics of the coming cycle and separate it at the same time. (2) Gibbs is probably the president’s best advocate on TV and moving to the DNC would give him more latitude to do just that. Also, if Gibbs does leave the West Wing, it would mean the lone member of the Big Four (Rahm, Valerie Jarrett, David Axelrod, and Gibbs) that would remain in the West Wing: Jarrett, the person who has the longest personal friendship with the president. By the way, Gibbs could also end up taking a bigger portfolio INSIDE the West Wing, which includes messaging and the speech-writing team.

*** Obama’s day: At 2:00 pm ET, President Obama meets with his Economic Recovery Advisory Board. Among the attendees: Recovery Board Chairman Paul Volcker, Harvard economist Martin Feldstein, GE CEO Jeff Immelt, Caterpillar Chairman Jim Owens, and AFL-CIO head Richard Trumka.

*** 75 House races to watch: TN-8: The Democratic nominee in the race to replace retiring Rep. John Tanner (D) is state Sen. Roy Herron. His Republican opponent is Gospel singer and farmer Stephen Fincher. In 2008, McCain won 56% in this district, while Bush won 53% in ’04. As of July 16, Herron had nearly $1.2 million in bank, versus Fincher’s $420,000. Both Cook and Rothenberg rate the contest as a Toss Up.

*** More midterm news: In Connecticut, Richard Blumenthal and Linda McMahon debate… In Delaware, Bill Maher released video of Christine O’Donnell saying, “I would have become a Hare Krishna, but I didn't want to become a vegetarian.”… Rand Paul says the retirement age likely needs to be boosted … The LA Times endorsed Jerry Brown. … In Georgia, Roy Barnes isn’t sure if he’d support Obama in 2012. … Obama appears in first campaign ad of 2010 … Welcome, Congressman Landry.

Countdown to Election Day 2010: 29 days

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