In her latest "I'm you"-taglined ad, Christine O’Donnell contrasts herself with Democratic opponent Chris Coons with the opening line: “I didn’t go to Yale.”

Coons graduated from Amherst College and went on earn a law degree as well as a masters in ethics at Yale. O’Donnell's own educational credentials - including an inaccurate claim in 2005 that she was pursuing a master's degree at Princeton University - have been the subject of controversy.

But O’Donnell’s matriculation aside, her spurning of the idea of a pricey education would seem to fit into the anti-elitist trend fueling frustration with D.C. incumbents. But in fact, there are quite a few Senate candidates vying for the "outsider" label in key races who boast a degree from one of America's top educational institutions.

Alaska Tea Party-backed candidate Joe Miller DID go to Yale – specifically, for law school. (The Democrat in the race, Scott McAdams, actually tried to make an issue of Miller’s blue blood cred, labeling Miller a “an ivy league lawyer” in a tweet last month. McAdams attended Sheldon Jackson College in Sitka, Alaska.)

In Kentucky, two Duke University grads – Tea Party-backed Rand Paul, who received a medical degree from the home of the Blue Devils, and Jack Conway, who went there for undergrad -- are general election candidates in a hotly contested race.

In Colorado, it’s Princeton (Tea Party-backed Ken Buck) versus Yale Law (incumbent Democrat Michael Bennet). The populist candidate whom Bennet successfully fended off in the state’s primary, Andrew Romanoff, has a bachelor’s from Yale and a master’s from Harvard. Buck defeated “establishment” primary opponent, Lt. Gov. Jane Norton, who went to Colorado State University.

And in Pennsylvania, Democrat Joe Sestak unseated Yale Law smarty Arlen Specter in the state’s May primary. Sestak boasts a Harvard PhD and a Naval Academy bachelors of science on his resume. He’s facing off against Republican Pat Toomey, also a Harvard grad.

Of course, there are many candidates hoping to ride an anti-establishment wave who did not attend super-elite schools like the Ivies, which educated six of the last 10 U.S. presidents. Florida Republican Marco Rubio, of humble beginnings as the child of Cuban immigrants, attended community college and then a series of state universities in Florida. Tea Party darling Sharron Angle went to the University of Nevada, and Utah's Mike Lee attended BYU.

From NBC's Athena Jones
Calling job creation and rebuilding the economic security of the middle class "the moral and national challenge of our time," President Obama touted September's private sector job growth today while slamming Republicans for standing in the way of efforts to spur the economy.

The unemployment rate was unchanged at 9.6 percent during the month as the economy lost 95,000 jobs, due mainly to government layoffs. The private sector added 64,000 jobs, a point the president and his aides emphasized repeatedly this morning.

"We've now seen nine straight months of private sector job growth," Obama said after touring a small brick and masonry company in Bladensburg, MD.

Private sector employment has risen by 863,000 since last December and private sector employers have added an average of 91,000 jobs per month over the most recent quarter of this year, Austan Goolsbee, the chair of the White House's Council of Economic Advisers, wrote in a blog post. Goolsbee argued it was important not to "read too much" into the jobs report, given the volatility in the data, while also noting that estimates of private sector job growth for July and August were revised up by a total of 36,000.

The economy and the unemployment rate top voters' concerns as the November midterm elections approach. Today's jobs report is the last one before Election Day. With political analysts predicting Democratic losses in both houses, Obama faces the task of having to acknowledge that the economy has a long way to go before the recovery is felt broadly while at the same time arguing that it is headed in the right direction and making the case to voters that the GOP would put the country back on the wrong track.

Obama also announced plans to meet Monday with engineers, economists and state and local politicians to discuss the need to put more people back to work by rebuilding the nation's infrastructure. He also spoke about the Small Business Jobs Act that he signed last week as well as the loans and tax cuts it provides to companies.

"Unfortunately it was held up all summer by a partisan minority until a few courageous Republican senators put politics aside," he said. "Just imagine the difference it could have made for small businesses in our economy had it happened months before."

The Republican National Committee has consistently and effectively bashed the president and the Democratic Congress for what they say are failed efforts to boost job growth. One of the headlines in a statement the RNC released this morning blared" The Stimulus Failed to Create the Promised Jobs." The statement went on to argue that the administration's policies -- including the president's proposal to allow tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans to expire -- are creating uncertainty for businesses and families.

During this morning's visit to the brick company, the president joked that the firm built walls that were thick and difficult to move and could stop anything in their path "sort of like the way I feel about Congress sometimes." A loss of seats in the House and Senate will make it even harder for Obama to push through his political agenda.

The White House is hoping the president can motivate the Democratic base -- liberals, young people, African-Americans -- to get to the polls on Nov. 2 to save the Democratic majorities. The president is hosting another big outdoor rally in Philadelphia on Sunday with that goal in mind. His rally at the Univ. of Wisconsin last week drew some 26,000 people.

From NBC's Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
If it's Friday, it's time for another Top 10 list -- this time our look at what we consider the best (and most buzz-worthy) TV ads.

10. Flagged for excessive celebration: This Russ Feingold (D) spot might be the first TV ad we've ever seen featuring Randy Moss or someone mooning his audience. But it drives home the point that his opponents shouldn't be dancing in the end zone until the game is over. Problem for Feingold: The NFL asked him to remove the footage of Moss' faux moon, and his campaign said it will edit the ad.
9. All tied up: Scott McAdams' (D) first ad -- which showed him trying on all kinds of neckties, including Ted Stevens' famous Incredible Hulk tie -- garnered plenty of attention and highlighted his quest to "tie" himself to the state's late senator.
8. Oh no, he's got a case of the Twitters: This Chuck Grassley (R) ad makes us laugh out loud every time. It starts with one older woman saying, "I heard Chuck Grassley has … a Twitter." Another woman interjects, "Oh, can it be cured?" Then Grassley appears: Oh, not that kind… I'll Tweet. I'll text. I'll do whatever it takes." (Our question: What, exactly, did that woman think Twitter was?)
7. Hook(er), line, and sinker: From Twitter to Vitter… This two-minute Charlie Melancon (D) goes there -- bringing up opponent David Vitter's (R) prostitution scandal. (Trivia: Which of your First Read authors made a cameo appearance in this ad ? Although, the cameo appears to have been removed.)
6. HP, yeah you know me: This Barbara Boxer (D) ad is one of the toughest we've seen -- blasting opponent Carly Fiorina (R) for laying off thousands at Hewlett Packard and shipping those jobs overseas.
5. "I worked so hard to get that title": Here is Fiorina's response ad, which revisits Boxer dressing down a general who called her "ma'am" instead of "senator." Says Fiorina: "Twenty-eight years in Washington, and Barbara Boxer works hard for a title?"
4. Maid in America: Staying with California, this SEIU independent expenditure Spanish-language TV ad draws blood on Meg Whitman's housekeeper/nanny problem.
3. Taliban Dan: Love him or hate him, but Alan Grayson sure knows how to run provocative TV ads -- like this one, which calls his opponent Dan Webster "Taliban Dan." As provocative as it was, independent fact-checkers had plenty of problems with the ad.
2. Gettin' 'hicky' with it: This NRSC ad -- which features three supposed West Virginia residents criticizing Obama and alleging that Joe Manchin (D) does whatever Obama wants -- has received plenty of attention. But not necessarily good attention: The men were actors found by a casting agency who wanted a "'hicky' blue-collar look." The ad has since been pulled.
1. "I'm not a witch": This is No.1 on our list, because we'll probably never see another political candidate speak to the camera in an ad and say, "I'm not a witch." She adds, "I'm nothing you've heard. I'm you."

UPDATED 10:25 AM: A White House adviser tells NBC News that Deputy National Security Adviser Tom Donilon will succeed James Jones as National Security Adviser. Jones is stepping down today.

Donilon, who had said he was not interested in the position of chief of staff to the president, was widely believed to have his sights set on the post as National Security Adviser.

NBC's Andrea Mitchell also reported Jones is known to have recommended that Vice Chair of the Joint Chiefs Gen. James Cartwright replace him.

NBC's Mike Viqueira reports that National Security Adviser James Jones is retiring. An official announcement will come later today.

The news was first reported by the Associated Press.

Deputy National Security Adviser Tom Donilon, who said he was not interested in the White House chief of staff role, is widely believed to have his sights set on replacing Jones.

Is Washington underestimating Obama?... But here’s a real test for the president: Can he get his voters out in states like Wisconsin, Illinois, and Pennsylvania?... Final jobs report before the midterms shows the economy lost 95,000 jobs and the unemployment steady at 9.6% (but private employers added 64,000 jobs)… Obama rails against outside group spending in twin events yesterday… The “W” word becomes an issue in the Brown-Whitman race… First Read’s Top 10 TV ads… No.1 on our list? Christine O’Donnell’s “I’m you” ad, and she’s now running a second ad on this theme… And another poll shows Rubio leading in Florida.

From NBC's Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** A little counter C.W. with your Friday coffee: As President Obama draws 26,000 in Wisconsin, thousands yesterday in Maryland, and likely thousands in Philadelphia this weekend, it’s worth asking whether there’s a disconnect between how the president is perceived in Washington and how he’s perceived in other parts of the country. Beltway reporters and columnists often use these adjectives in describing the president: beleaguered, struggling, disappointing. And the Washington chatter of the week was whether he needs Hillary’s help for 2012. But here’s a reality check: Obama’s approval rating in the latest NBC/WSJ poll (46%) is just three points lower than George W. Bush’s in the survey right before he won a second term (49%). And despite all the problems (a sluggish economy, a sour public, and a brutal midterm landscape for Democrats), Obama still has a strong base propping him up (Democrats, liberals, blacks, Hispanics, and young voters).

*** The president’s real midterm test: Then again, the president has certainly served as a lightning rod in races across the country, especially former battleground states like Missouri (where Roy Blunt has tried to tie Obama to Robin Carnahan) and in places like West Virginia (where the NRSC had to take down that “hicky” ad tying the president to Joe Manchin). But the question -- with 25 days until Election Day -- is whether Obama has enough juice with his base in Wisconsin (where he was last week), Illinois (where he was last night), and Pennsylvania (where he’ll be on Sunday) to help Democratic candidates in those states. He can get these folks to come to his rallies, but can he get them to the polls? These three states may be the best test of whether the president has midterm juice -- all three contain important (and apathetic?) parts of the Democratic Party's base, and all are being fought over national issues.

*** The last jobs report: Of course, Obama doesn't want to see more of these kinds of job numbers. In the final jobs report before the midterms, the Labor Department reported that a total of 95,000 were lost in September due to widespread government layoffs, the AP notes. The unemployment rate remains at 9.6%, but the private sector added 64,000 jobs. Six months ago, the White House and many Democrats believed the employment situation was going to be on an up-arrow trajectory by this last jobs report. Of course, it's anything but. This flat-lining of the U.S. economy began right around the oil spill, as the double hit of the spill and the Greek debt crisis in Europe took away any hope economists had that the corporate world would begin to spend money again. Obama will discuss the economy at 11:40 am ET.

*** Mo money, mo problems: In twin appearances yesterday, Obama stressed all the outside money -- some of it from abroad, he argued -- impacting this year’s midterm races. Here was Obama at the rally in Maryland: “This is a threat to our democracy. The American people deserve to know who’s trying to sway their elections. And if we just stand by and allow the special interests to silence anybody who’s got the guts to stand up to them, our country is going to be a very different place.” And here he was in Illinois at a fundraiser for Alexi Giannoulias: “In this Senate race, two groups funded and advised by Karl Rove have outspent the Democratic Party two to one in an attempt to beat Alexi -- two to one… Just this week, we learned that one of the largest groups paying for these ads regularly takes in money from foreign sources.” While it's clear the White House wants to attention paid to how these groups are funded (and they are having a HUGE impact), it's not an issue many voters believe is of a high priority. Many Democrats struggling in their re-election bids aren't exactly jumping at the chance to talk about Citizens United. Instead, they'd prefer a cohesive economic message. Then again, the economy isn't exactly a plus for the Democrats so many the White House is right about this.

*** The “W” word: Another day, another controversy in California’s gubernatorial contest. Here’s the L.A. Times: “In a private conversation that was inadvertently taped by a voicemail machine, an associate of Democratic gubernatorial candidate Jerry Brown can be heard referring to his Republican opponent Meg Whitman as a ‘whore’ for cutting a deal protecting law enforcement pensions as the two candidates competed for police endorsements.” Not surprisingly, the Whitman campaign jumped all over the remark in an effort to change the dynamics of a race that Brown is leading; Brown’s camp apologized for the remark. This story cuts several ways. First, it could help Whitman with a key demographic she’s trying to win over: educated women. Then again, it could undermine one of Whitman’s chief attacks on Brown -- that he’s in the pocket of unions -- because it suggests that Brown isn’t willing to cut a deal with a police union to protect their pensions. Short term: It's a lifeline to Whitman as it changes the storyline, even for a day.

*** More O’Donnell ads (pro and con): Lo and behold, O’Donnell has a new TV ad that doubles down on the “I’m you” message. "I didn't go to Yale,” she says to the camera. “I didn't inherit millions like my opponent. I'm you." Meanwhile, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has a new TV ad hitting O’Donnell. It goes, “Christine O’Donnell claims she’ll control Washington spending. But look at her record. She was sued for not paying her bills. Didn’t pay her taxes. Has a federal complaint filed against her for spending campaign funds on herself. If Christine O’Donnell wants to be irresponsible with her money- that’s her business. But she’s running for Senate- and being irresponsible with our money is our business.”

*** More midterm news: In Alabama, “Rep. Bobby Bright on Thursday became the first Democratic incumbent to say publicly that he would not support Nancy Pelosi for Speaker in the next Congress,” CQ reports… In Florida, a new Mason-Dixon poll shows Marco Rubio (R) with a comfortable lead in the state’s three-way Senate contest.

Countdown to Election Day 2010: 25 days

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The Washington Post: "President Obama stepped into a growing political furor over the nation's troubled foreclosure system Thursday by vetoing a little-known bill that critics say would have made it easier to evict homeowners who missed their payments. The decision to block the measure, which Congress passed without debate, came as members of the president's own party have urged the administration and federal regulators to more actively address the crisis over flawed foreclosures."

The Post also covers Obama stumping in Maryland yesterday for Gov. Martin O’Malley.

"A federal judge in Michigan on Thursday dismissed one of more than 15 legal challenges to the new health care law, becoming the first to rule that the law is constitutional," the New York Times writes. "Two other cases with higher profiles, one in Florida and one in Virginia, are headed toward hearings on the issues that were decided in Michigan. The central question, which may ultimately fall to the Supreme Court, is whether the Commerce Clause of the Constitution gives Congress the authority to require citizens to obtain a commercial product, namely health insurance."

More: "Judge George C. Steeh of Federal District Court in Detroit ruled that choosing not to obtain insurance qualified as an example of “activities that substantially affect interstate commerce.” That is the standard set by the Supreme Court for Congress’s compliance with the Commerce Clause. Judge Steeh, who was appointed by President Bill Clinton, agreed with the federal government that not obtaining health coverage is effectively an active decision to pay for medical care out of pocket. “These decisions, viewed in the aggregate,” Judge Steeh wrote, “have clear and direct impacts on health care providers, taxpayers and the insured population who ultimately pay for the care provided to those who go without insurance.”

"The chairwoman of the House Committee on Standards of Official Conduct has scheduled hearings for next month in the separate cases of Representatives Charles B. Rangel, Democrat of New York, and Maxine Waters, Democrat of California, who have been accused of ethics violations," the New York Times says. "In a statement on Thursday, the chairwoman, Representative Zoe Lofgren, Democrat of California, said that Mr. Rangel’s hearing would begin on Nov. 15 and that the hearing for Ms. Waters would start on Nov. 29."

The New York Times: "The largest public transit project in the nation, a commuter train tunnel under the Hudson River to Manhattan, was halted on Thursday by Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey because, he said, the state could not afford its share of the project’s rising cost. Mr. Christie’s decision stunned other government officials and advocates of public transportation because work on the tunnel was under way and $3 billion of federal financing had already been arranged — more money than had been committed to any other transit project in America."

The Star-Ledger: “Critics say Christie's decision to scrap Hudson tunnel project will cost N.J. homeowners, commuters jobs.” More: “Commuter trains so packed that passengers eye overhead racks as a tempting refuge from the crush; more cars on the road, making for longer traffic delays and dirtier air; billions of dollars in home value lost to suburbs more accessible to Manhattan and therefore more marketable; continued crushing property tax burdens; fewer income tax dollars in state coffers and an all-around grim long-term economic outlook for the state.”

Reuters: “Digging for the tunnel, which was estimated to create 6,000 jobs, began in June 2009. It was to open in 2018.”

The AP: “As a candidate last year, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie was willing to support the planned New Jersey-to-Manhattan rail tunnel. As governor, he now says the nation's largest public transportation project is a luxury the state can no longer afford.”

Liberal economist Paul Krugman calls the move by Christie “a destructive and incredibly foolish.” More: “But it shouldn’t have been all that surprising. We are no longer the nation that used to amaze the world with its visionary projects. We have become, instead, a nation whose politicians seem to compete over who can show the least vision, the least concern about the future and the greatest willingness to pander to short-term, narrow-minded selfishness.”

A House ethics panel has set hearing dates for Rep. Charlie Rangel of New York and Rep. Maxine Waters of California to address charges against the two longtime Democratic lawmakers.

Rangel’s adjudicatory hearing will begin on Monday, Nov. 15, the committee announced in a statement. Waters’ hearing is set to begin Monday, Nov. 29.

Last week, all five Republicans on the 10 member committee made a rare formal demand that the hearings be held before the midterm elections.

In the statement announcing the hearings, committee chair Zoe Lofgren, D-Calif., said the minority’s public request was made “in contrast to their prior requests and ongoing discussions” with the majority, which are kept private as a rule.

Rangel is charged with violating 13 House rules, including allegations that he solicited donations using official letterhead to raise funds for an educational center bearing his name. Waters is accused of giving special help to a bank in which her husband held stock.

From NBC's Ali Weinberg and Alison Bruno
Gubernatorial hopefuls Mark Dayton and Bill Brady recruit their children for the ad endorsement cause… New Mexico’s Susana Martinez uses Diane Denish’s words as Bill Richardson’s lieutenant governor against her… And Marco Rubio says “We All Know” that Charlie Crist is a flip-flopper…

And in House races, Delaware Democrat John Carney releases his first ad against Glen Urquhart, linking him to a slightly higher-profile, polarizing Republican nominee in the state… the Chamber of Commerce hits Floridians Alan Grayson and Diane Kosmas… and in South Dakota, Kristi Noem uses Stephanie Herseth Sandlin’s words against her.

IL GOV, Brady “Katie”
10/6
KATIE: I'm Kate Brady. My dad has taught me a lot of lessons about life. 'No challenge is too big, Katie,' that's what he always tells me. He feels the same way about the people of Illinois. He'll tell you, 'times are tough but so are the people.' He believes to his core that you put your faith in people and not government. He put his faith in me and made me the person I am today. I know he'll lead us, lift us up and fight to give us a brighter future. ANNCR: Bill Brady. Governor.

MN GOV, Dayton “Our Ad for Dad”
10/6
A. DAYTON: "My grandfather never went to business school, but he just worked harder than everyone else. I think that's sorta been the family secret." E. DAYTON: "I just think that my dad is a classic workhorse. He represents the values and the priorities that people associate with Minnesota." A. DAYTON: "To me, he was just dad. He was the coach of my little league baseball team." E. DAYTON: "Growing up he was a goalie, he was all-state and so it was great to have my dad as a goalie coach. He was always out there on the ice with me, you know, taking shots on me. And it meant a lot to me to have his support and encouragement." A. DAYTON: "He was a great role-model as a father who was just playing the game right, working hard and he brought that same mentality and approach to his career in politics." E. DAYTON: "He's been driven by injustice and unfairness and to stand up for the little guy and try to give them a better chance in life since we were given so much." A. DAYTON: "My dad's never claimed to be perfect, but his heart's in the right place." E. DAYTON: "There've been no steadier, supportive, loving presence in our lives than our dad." A. DAYTON: "The kind of man that I want to be and that I hope to be someday.”

NM GOV, Martinez “More of the Same”
10/6
DENISH: Hi I'm New Mexico's Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish. Governor Bill Richardson’s work is something to brag about. Governor Richardson believes that good jobs and good wages are the best solutions. Governor Richardson has a record of success. Please join me in supporting Bill Richardson.

DE-AL, Carney
10/5
ANNCR: For John Carney, it’s never been about politics. It’s always been about people. The ones he grew up with in Claymont, who struggled through hard times but keep believing in better ones. John Carney’s always been a voice when we needed one, because creating jobs and a better future for our kids isn’t politics. It’s personal. Glenn Urquhart and Christine O’Donnell want to shift the tax burden from the wealthy to the middle class. And Urquhart opposes the new law to stop Wall Street abuses. If you’re going to represent Delaware’s voters, you ought to represent Delaware values.

FL-8, anti-Grayson (Chamber of Commerce)
10/5
ANNCR: "Tired of big-mouth politicians ignoring our big problems? Alan Grayson is the most extreme." GRAYSON: "Die quickly. The Republicans want you to die quickly. Die quickly." ANNCR: "But when it comes to Nancy Pelosi, big barker Grayson turns into a lap-dog. Obamacare, job-killing energy taxes, union giveaways. Good boy Alan. Call Alan Grayson, tell him to stop being Pelosi's lapdog and help fix our economy. The U.S. Chamber is responsible for the content of this advertising."

FL-24, anti-Kosmas (Chamber of Commerce)
10/5
ANNCR: "Nancy Pelosi didn't damage our economy all alone, she had some help from a friend. Suzanne Kosmas votes with Nancy Pelosi 93 percent of the time. 93 percent. Kosmas is such a good pal she even changed her vote to help Pelosi pass Obamacare, saddling us with a trillion dollar price tag. Kosmas and Pelosi. An economic wrecking crew. Tell Kosmas to stop. Her friendship with Pelosi is crushing Florida taxpayers. The U.S. Chamber is responsible for the content of this advertising."

SD-AL, Noem, “One Way”
10/6
HERSETH SANDLIN: "Don't be so scared just because Democrats are in charge." ANNCR: "Trillion dollar deficits. South Dakota families' losing their homes. The policies of Obama and Pelosi?" HERSETH SANDLIN: "I think it's clear that it's been working for South Dakota." ANNCR: "She voted for Obama's stimulus that increased debt and failed to create jobs." HERSETH SANDLIN: "It's my political party that's in charge of everything in Washington." ANNCR: "Stephanie Herseth Sandlin. She acts one way in South Dakota, another way in Washington." NOEM: "I'm Kristi Noem and I approve this message."

Rep. Kendrick Meek is saying, “thanks, but no thanks,” to an environmental group’s endorsement.

The Sierra Club, an environmental conservation group, endorsed the Florida Democratic Senate candidate on Thursday, calling him a “serious and accomplished” candidate who understands “urgency of environmental protection and the policies needed to accomplish that goal.”

Problem is -- the Club ALSO endorsed (and said the same nice things about) Florida Gov. Charlie Crist, the independent candidate in the race from whom Meek must differentiate himself to have a shot at winning the three-way Senate contest.

That, Meek says, isn’t fair.

"I cannot in good conscience accept an endorsement from an organization that would stand with a governor who has consistently put developers, oil companies and the special interests first,” Meek said in a statement in which he “respectfully declined” the group’s nod.

In its original announcement, the Club’s political director wrote that it rarely endorses more than one candidate in a race, but the group found something to like about both candidates. Meek opposes offshore drilling in Florida (Crist favored drilling before the BP oil spill but backed off that support after the disaster.) The group also praised Crist for championing preservation of the Everglades.

Responding to Meek’s rebuff, Sierra Club spokeswoman Maggie Kao said the Club stands by its endorsement. “We believe that both Meek and Crist are accomplished leaders who are committed to fighting climate disruption and building a clean energy economy to create jobs. Our endorsements of both candidates serve to reflect that belief,” she said.

From NBC's Mark Murray
Trying to set expectations before an Election Day that's 26 days away, Obama adviser (and former campaign manager) David Plouffe today said it would be a "colossal failure" for Republicans if they don't win back control of the House and Senate.

Yet citing polls showing a more enthusiastic Democratic base, Plouffe added that Democrats could win many close races -- if they turn out their voters and improve among independents. "I think we can stave off the worst of predictions," he told a gathering of political reporters.

But while Plouffe gladly set expectations for Republican success on Election Night, he refused to do the same for Democrats. "We are just trying to do as well as we can," he said, drawing laughs from the assembled reporters for his very low bar.

Also at the briefing, Plouffe argued that Republicans' inability to produce new ideas or learn from their defeats in 2006 and 2008 would hurt the GOP -- if not in the short term, then in the long run. "I think that is going to cause them big problems."

(He attributed the Democrats' own problems this election season to the economy, that midterms are traditionally tough for the party in power, that Democrats maximized their gains after '06 and '08, and that opposition is often a more powerful force than support.)

Plouffe argued that the Republican Party -- due to the Tea Party's successes in GOP primaries -- will undoubtedly push the party to the right in 2011 and 2012. "You wait until '11 or '12. All the energy will be around Christine O'Donnell- and Rand Paul-type voters." For future GOP candidates, he added, "the gate you have to get through is farther to the right."

And Plouffe railed against the GOP-leaning outside groups -- like the Rove-backed American Crossroads and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce -- calling them "the central financial actors" of 2010 and contending that they are "hijacking" the country's democracy with (in some cases) the unlimited and anonymous donations they can receive. "This is a big, big threat to our democracy."

*** UDPATE *** RNC Communications Director Doug Heye responds to Plouffe's remarks: "There is no better place to get mixed messages than from the Democrats. One the one hand, David Plouffe say our candidates are too extreme to be elected. Seconds later, he says it will be a ‘colossal failure’ if they do not. At some point, Democrats should pick a message and stick to it."

From NBC’s Shawna Thomas and Carrie Dann
Delaware Senate candidate Christine O’Donnell said Thursday that the National Republican Senatorial Committee is “considering” contributing money to her race -- after she requested its support yesterday -- but that she believes she can win even without the support of the GOP organization.

“I asked them to help us,” said O’Donnell, who met with NRSC Chairman Sen. John Cornyn yesterday. “But I'm confident that even if they don't, we are building coalitions and a strong grassroots campaign and rising in the polls and doing what we need to do to win.”

“The more people working to win towards victory on November 2nd, the better,” she told NBC News. “But if they don’t, I'm still confident that we can win.”

As First Read pointed out this morning, races like O’Donnell’s (and the difficult-to-poll Alaska Senate contest) are receiving enormous national attention because of their respective spoof-able moments and linkage to the Palin family. But it’s worth pointing out that there are some much closer statewide races that are receiving little national press.

According to poll averages computed by RealClearPolitics, O’Donnell is down by 16 points against Democrat Chris Coons.

That margin is equal to the COMBINED total poll differentials in three close Senate races (Colorado – 4.4 points, Washington – 3.3 points, and Illinois – 1.2 points) plus two tight gubernatorial contests (Florida – 2.9 points and Ohio – 4.2 points).

Privately, Republican officials tell First Read that the controversial TV ad hitting Joe Manchin -- and featuring "hicky" actors -- will be rotated out of their ad rotation.

Separately, Republicans are maintaining that the National Republican Senatorial Committee had nothing to do with the casting call for "hicky" actors to portray West Virginians in the ad.

National Republican Senatorial Committee spokesman Brian Walsh emails: "Contrary to the false headline by Politico, no one at the NRSC, or associated with the NRSC, had anything to do with the language used in this casting call. We do not support it. But we're not going to be lectured by a Governor who refuses to tell the people of West Virginia why he's flip-flopped on ObamaCare or why his office is under investigation by the Department of Justice. It's one thing for actors to impersonate someone they're not because it's their job, it is entirely different when a governor is doing that so he can get promoted, as we've seen Joe Manchin do in this campaign."

In a press release, West Virginia Gov. (and Democratic Senate candidate) Joe Manchin called on the National Republican Senatorial Committee to apologize for airing a TV ad featuring actors posing as "hicky" West Virginians

"John Raese and his special interest friends have insulted the people of West Virginia and need to immediately apologize," Manchin said. "Not only have they been spending millions to try and buy this election with lies and distortions, we can now see once and for all what he and his friends really think of West Virginia and our people. It's offensive and it only proves that John Raese has spent too much time in the state of Florida, living in his Palm Beach mansion, and doesn't know, understand or respect the great people of this state, and what we stand for."

Here's the Politico piece that broke the "hicky" story: "A Republican ad that shows a couple of regular-looking guys commiserating in a diner about West Virginia Gov. Joe Manchin (D) turns out to have been shot with actors, from a script, in Philadelphia. But not just any actors: 'We are going for a "Hicky" Blue Collar look,' read the casting call for the ad, being aired by the National Republican Senatorial Committee. "These characters are from West Virginia so think coal miner/trucker looks."

Where’s the buzz surrounding the possible 2012 Republicans?... Politico says Hillaryland has its eyes on 2016, not 2012… Obama speaks at rally for O’Malley at 3:15 pm ET… While we all focus on the DE and AK Senate races, don’t forget about CO, IL, PA, WV, and WI… GOP outside money groups have an 8-to-1 spending advantage… “Hicky, blue-collar look”?... About last night’s Crist-Meek-Rubio debate… Profiling VA-2… And Blumenthal and McMahon square off in another debate.

From NBC's Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** Where’s the buzz? President Obama today hits another rally (for Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley), after recently drawing 26,000 in Wisconsin. But looking ahead to 2012, we’ve heard some Republicans ask: If the GOP’s ’12 nominee was out there, wouldn’t that person already have a considerable following? After all, conservatives and Republicans right now are displaying unprecedented enthusiasm, energy, and engagement about the coming midterm elections. That’s largely why Republicans are poised to make big gains next month. But given this GOP excitement, it’s striking that -- outside of Sarah Palin (and she could be more exciting to the media than to the base) -- none of it has rubbed off the potential ’12 Republicans.

*** Comparing '06 with now: In 2006, due to his rock-star status campaigning for other Democrats, political observers could already sense that Obama would be a BIG deal if he ran for president. Ditto Hillary Clinton, whose march to Senate re-election was attracting plenty of buzz. Right now, the only Republican outside of Palin who’s even approaching the same buzz that Obama and Clinton received in ’06 is someone who has said he won’t run: New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie. There are A LOT of 2012 GOPers traveling the country (Romney, Pawlenty, Huckabee, Santorum, etc), and none is even close to getting real buzz in the base of the party right now.

*** Speaking of buzz about 2012 (and also 2016): Thanks to Drudge and cable TV’s need to feed the beast, we’re not sure the Hillary-Biden “Trading Places” story is really going to go away, despite strong denials by the White House and Clinton. Indeed, Politico yesterday noted that Hillaryland’s true target isn’t VP in 2012 but rather president in 2016. “Not happening,” one of her 2008 campaign’s topmost figures said about Clinton becoming VP in ‘12. “Stay tuned for 2016.” More: “Many in Clinton’s broader circle assume that she is positioning herself with an eye toward that 2016 bid – not that they claim to have first-hand knowledge of it. ‘Once you run for president you always want to be president,” James Carville … told POLITICO when he was asked about Hillary Clinton’s prospects. “My assumption is that once you’ve run you’re going to run again.” Of course, the whole story was written on the premise of making an assumption about her ambition. Those closest to Hillary acknowledge folks AROUND Clinton are more interested in seeing her run again than the prospective candidate herself. In fact, she's actually starting to get into a groove in her current job and starting to enjoy more this year than she did last year.

*** How quickly we forget 1994: The Politico article also made this point: “The renewed buzz around Clinton's prospects, though, has been driven by the political weaknesses of Obama and Biden. Fanned by a media eager for conflict and fascinated by all things Clinton, the spark for the notion of Clinton's return to politics comes from her original argument against Obama. Clinton made the case in the Democratic primaries that Obama would be unable to win among working-class white Democratic voters. The Democrats head into the midterms profoundly weak among some of those same white voters - though Obama's biggest problem remains with Republicans, and pollsters argue that their real problem is a lackluster Democratic base.” Yet here’s our question: If Bill Clinton couldn’t avoid what happened in ’94, then do we think Hillary as president would be any stronger than Obama is right now, especially with unemployment at 10%? Classic grass-is-always-greener-on-the-other-side analysis.

*** Obama’s day: As mentioned above, President Obama delivers remarks at 3:15 pm ET at a rally for Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley at Bowie State University, a historically black college. Then, in the early evening, he flies to Chicago to speak at a fundraiser for Alexi Giannoulias at 7:00 pm ET.

*** Don’t you … forget about me: While the political and news world fixates on the Senate contests in Delaware (because of Christine O’Donnell) and Alaska (because of Todd Palin’s nasty-gram email to Joe Miller), we want to remind folks that there are MUCH more competitive and consequential Senate races out there. Some examples: Colorado, Illinois, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Wisconsin. In fact, these are, perhaps, the five CLOSEST Senate races in the country, and they rank near the bottom in coverage. Hmmm

*** GOP outside group’s 8-to-1 spending advantage: On Tuesday, we wrote about how GOP-leaning outside groups were blowing away Dem outside groups in TV ad spending. Here are some fresh numbers a source sent us: From August until now, GOP groups have spent nearly $41 million in key Senate seats, including $8.8 million by American Crossroads and $14 million by Crossroads GPS. By comparison, Dem groups have spent just $5.5 million in these states. That’s an 8-to-1 advantage for the GOP. Wow…

*** The ‘hicky’ blue-collar look? Remember that recent tough TV ad the National Republican Senatorial Committee is running against Joe Manchin in West Virginia? The ad features three men -- wearing flannel and baseball caps -- having a conversation about how "Obama's messin' things up" and how Manchin “does whatever Obama wants.” Well, it turns out those weren’t West Virginians. Rather, they were actors shooting the ad from Philadelphia, and they weren’t just actors, Politico reports. “‘We are going for a “Hicky” Blue Collar look,’ read the casting call for the ad, being aired by the National Republican Senatorial Committee. ‘These characters are from West Virginia so think coal miner/trucker looks.’” All of a sudden, Manchin now has three things to hit GOP opponent John Raese with: 1) that Raese’s wife is a resident of another state; 2) Raese’s position on the minimum wage; and 3) this casting call that doesn’t necessarily portray West Virginia in a positive light.

*** About last night: Here's the Miami Herald's take on last night's Crist-Meek-Rubio debate in Florida: "Marco Rubio got the front-runner treatment in a combative U.S. Senate debate Wednesday night, with both his rivals attacking him as a right-wing extremist out of step with Florida voters.” Here's the St. Pete Times: "The surprise of the night was Meek, the Democrat trailing in the polls, money and enthusiasm. Meek was strong throughout the hour, landing some of the best lines." Here’s ABC: “[I]n the end, neither Gov. Charlie Crist (I) nor Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) was able to knock frontrunner Marco Rubio (R) off his game.” And here is the take from NBC's Adam Verdugo, who was there: It was clear that both Crist and Meek had Rubio in their sights. Rubio is the clear frontrunner in the polls and just before the debate, Rubio’s campaign announced a record haul of $5 million in the last quarter, the largest from a Senate candidate this quarter.

*** 75 House races to watch: VA-2: The Democratic nominee is first-term incumbent Glenn Nye, and his GOP opponent is businessman Scott Rigell. In 2008, Obama won 51% in this district -- representing Virginia Beach -- while Bush won 58% in ’04. As of June 30, Nye had nearly $1.3 million in the bank, versus Rigell’s $227,000. Nye voted against the stimulus, cap-and-trade, and health care. Cook rates the contest as Toss Up, while Rothenberg has it Lean Republican.

*** More midterm news: In Colorado, Campaign Money Watch, a nonpartisan campaign finance reform watchdog group, is up with a big ad buy against Ken Buck… In Connecticut, Dick Blumenthal and Linda McMahon square off in another debate today.

Countdown to Election Day 2010: 26 days

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The New York Times writes, “The Obama administration failed to act upon or fully inform the public of its own worst-case estimates of the amount of oil gushing from the blown-out BP well, slowing response efforts and keeping the American people in the dark for weeks about the size of the disaster, according to preliminary reports from the presidential commission investigating the accident." More: "The government repeatedly underestimated how much oil was flowing into the Gulf of Mexico and how much was left after the well was capped in July, leading to a loss of faith in the government’s ability to handle the spill and a continuing breach between the federal authorities and state and local officials, the commission staff members found in a series of four reports issued Wednesday."

"The commission probing the BP oil spill says low-balled oil flow estimates might have hampered attempts to plug the ruptured well, and White House officials might have blocked release of 'worst case' discharge models," The Hill adds.

The Washington Post on President Obama’s drawbacks and skills on the campaign trail: while he’s not appearing in many campaign ads as a midterm asset, he is “proving every bit as powerful a fundraiser as they had expected, helping offset some fundraising by outside groups on the Republican side.”

“President Obama had dinner in Cresskill [NJ] and raised nearly $1 million from donors, telling them the nation faces a difficult election and pressing them not to lose focus,” the Bergen Record recounts. “Obama warned Democrats against ‘losing sight of that long game and we start sulking and sitting back and not doing everything we can do to make sure our folks turn out.’”

Per a new CBS/NYT poll, President Obama's approval is at 44%/45%.

Not surprisingly, President Obama won't campaign for Rahm Emanuel's Chicago mayoral bid.

"A House Republican website that provided a searchable database of federal earmark requests has disappeared," Roll Call reports. "The Web address, sunshine.gop.gov, now links only to a March news release about the House Republican Conference’s one-year earmark ban. Republican aides who were asked Wednesday afternoon about the website’s disappearance were puzzled about what had become of it, and none could explain why it went dark."

The New York Times says that Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina won’t attend the RNC/Palin rally next Saturday in California.

"It’s shaping up as two of the more star-studded Republican events of the fall: Sarah Palin, the former governor of Alaska, and Michael Steele, the head of the Republican National Committee, appearing on the same stage – first in Orange County and the following week in Orlando – at what is being billed as ‘final path to victory’ rallies, intended to raise campaign funds and build enthusiasm among conservatives as Election Day approaches. But what may be the most interesting thing about the California rally next Saturday is not who is on the stage – but who is not."

When former Alaska governor Sarah Palin endorsed Senate candidate Joe Miller on her Facebook page in June, she wrote that he “is ready to help lead the greatest state in our exceptional nation; he is Alaska’s true Commonsense Conservative choice, and I’ll be proud to vote for him for the United States Senate.”

But faced with what could be a difficult election in Palin’s home state, Miller isn’t exactly returning the favor.

For a second time on Wednesday, Miller declined to offer a strong statement in the affirmative when asked if Palin is qualified to be the president of the United States.

“We know what qualified means, don't we?” the Yale Law School graduate said in reply to the question from a FOX News anchor. “We know we have a constitutional requirement for somebody that's going to run for president. Of course, she is qualified."

(Miller did say that Palin “has done phenomenal things for the country,” but the statement was still far from a full-throated backing.)

As reported by an Alaska blog yesterday, a similar (but even more milquetoast) comment from Miller last month infuriated Palin’s husband Todd, who berated Miller for failing to offer more support for his wife.

“Joe, please explain how this endorsement stuff works, is it to be completely one sided,” Todd Palin demanded in an email.

Miller’s race against Democrat Scott McAdams and current incumbent Republican Lisa Murkowksi – who announced that she will run as a write-in candidate after being defeated by Miller last month – has created a headache for pollsters and pundits trying to gauge the closeness of the contest. But a recent attempt to model the complexities of a write-in candidacy by Alaska pollster Ivan Moore predicted a possible photo finish if the election were held tomorrow.

An exceptionally close race could mean a long slog before it’s known if Murkowski successfully pulled off the chancy write-in campaign.

Per Shelly Growden, the election systems manager in the state’s Division of Elections, when the ballots are counted on Election Night, officials will publicize the percentage of voters who bubbled in the “write-in” option on their ballots, but not whose name they actually wrote in.

As the AP pointed out last month, the candidate’s last name must be written in -- just "Lisa” won't suffice.

While election officials have previously said that “voter intent” will be the criteria used to determine whether various misspellings of the name count or not, Growden declined to elaborate on what that meant. “We’re not talking about any hypothetical situations right now,” she said.

By law, write-ins are only differentiated by written-in name if 1) the write-in option gets the most votes in the race or 2) if the write-in option receives the second highest number of votes but is no less than 0.5 percent less than the winner.

That differentiating count would happen at the Division of Elections in Juneau under “highly controlled circumstances,” Growden says. But it won’t even begin until all of the absentee ballots have been received, 15 days after Election Day.

So, there’s a plausible scenario in which we won’t know the winner of the race until at least two weeks into November.

From NBC's Alexandra Moe and Domenico Montanaro
Most are focused on the midterm elections at hand, but at a panel this morning before one of DC’s elite law lobbying firms, Republicans were also talking about 2012.

One thing was clear: the 2012 Republican field isn’t setting the political world on fire.

Purple Strategies’ Alex Castellanos, an ex-Mitt Romney ad maker (who does not appear to be part of the current Romney inner circle), said if 2010 is any predictor of the 2012 presidential race, establishment candidates, like Romney, in particular, are going to be in trouble.

“The problem for Mitt this time around is that the candidates that Republicans have been knocking off in the Republican primaries have been Mitt Romney’s, the older establishment Republicans,” he said this morning at a panel hosted by the firm DLA Piper.

Reached for comment by First Read, Romney spokesman Eric Fehrnstrom dismissed the comments, pointing to the former Massachusetts governor's primary endorsement success rate.

“Our win percentage for candidates we endorsed in contested primaries is 89 percent (50 of 56 primaries),” Fehrnstrom said. He noted that Castellanos has no affiliation with Romney’s Free and Strong America PAC.

Castellanos added that it remains to be seen which candidate can actually harness Republican momentum – mostly created by the Tea Party and a lackluster economy.

“Who could do that?” he asked. “I think it could be someone like a Chris Christie (R-NJ), someone like a Mitch Daniels (R-IN), you have a fresh face in John Thune (R-SD). You’d never think somebody just elected to the Senate for two years especially with a funny name could get elected president. But a Marco Rubio would be out there. A strong female Republican, a Meg Whitman or a Carly Fiorina in California, how would that change the game?”

Former Sen. Mel Martinez (R-FL) threw out the name of National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) as one that may be “exciting.”

But all of these candidates have potential problems: Despite being touted by various Republicans (including a movie about him made by the Republican Governors Association), Christie said he’s not interested and some remain unconvinced he could win nationally; Daniels has been attacked by social conservatives for saying Republicans should downplay social issues in this economy; Thune has tested the waters, but his name ID remains low and has said Sarah Palin is the elephant in the room, who will affect lots of Republicans’ decisions about a White House run; Rubio, Whitman, and Fiorina have to win their 2010 contests first; And Cornyn drew the ire of the Tea Party because of his stewardship of the NRSC. Several of the committee’s endorsed candidates were challenged by Tea Party candidates -- and lost.

On 2010, Republicans predicted significant gains in November.

“I think we are going to see a 50-plus Republican seat pick up in the House,” Castellanos said, “and we are going to get very close in the Senate. It’ll all depend on late election night if the wave sweeps all the way to California and Carly Fiorina.”

Democrats conceded Republicans are going to gain seats, but thought they would be more modest.

“The historical losses for the incumbent party are 23 in the House, a few in the Senate,” said Steve McMahon, a Democratic strategist, also of Purple Strategies. “I think we are probably, almost certainly, going to exceed that but I don’t think its going to be anywhere near 60.”

Former Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle (D-SD) contended that predictions a month out from an election are difficult because of the amount of volatility, especially in this election cycle. He recognized, however, that a transition in Congress has unfolded.

“Control of Congress, in other words, has become, sort of, the preeminent goal of either party at the expense of governance on virtually every one of the issues,” Daschle said.

He called for leaders, however, to reassess and refocus.

“We’ve got to learn how to govern,” he said. “We’ve got to figure out how to depoliticize and put this all together in a way that allows us to remain the leaders of the world but certainly the leaders of this country.”

Last month, Sen. Arlen Specter was less than enthusiastic about commenting on the campaign of former primary opponent Joe Sestak, responding to a reporter's question about the race merely by saying he was "late for the squash court."

But the Pennsylvania Republican-turned-Democrat -- who was defeated by Sestak in the May Democratic primary -- will take some time away from his game on Monday to campaign for the first time with his former foe.

From The Morning Call:

Specter will join U.S. Senate candidate Joe Sestak at a private, closed press fundraiser held at a law firm in downtown Philadelphia on Monday night. First reported by the Philadelphia Jewish Voice, it seems the topic of the reception will be Sestak's support for Israel, something that has been widely attacked by Republicans.

NBC News rates the Pennsylvania Senate race a tossup.