The White House sees history as a driving force, but does its focus on the long run keep it from winning the politics of the moment?… Obama drops his line hitting the U.S. Chamber on foreign money… Another busy campaign week for Obama; today, he raises money for the DCCC in Florida (at Alonzo Mourning's home)… Wrapping up yesterday’s Alexi-vs.-Kirk debate… Springtime … for Rich Iott … in Germany… Profiling WV-1… And SNL jabs Christine O’Donnell again.
From NBC's Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** The White House’s history lessons: As George Santayana once observed, those who fail to learn history are doomed to repeat it. But are those who rely too much on history -- like the Obama White House has arguably done -- doomed to lose in the politics of the moment? For Team Obama, history has been a driving force, whether it was with health care (determining not to repeat the Clinton mistakes), the economy and the midterms (comforting themselves by drawing parallels to 1982), the timetable in Afghanistan (wanting to avoid what happened in Vietnam, as well as what happened Afghanistan post-Soviet pullout), or the Tea Party (comparing it to past social/political movements). But as we’ve seen over the past year, relying on history isn't always the best way to win the current debates or news cycles over the economy, the health-care law, and the upcoming midterms. In fact, the White House often acts if it’s trapped by history.
*** Focusing on the long run is sometimes all you can do: Then again, the White House DID get health care passed, so avoiding the Clinton pitfalls proved to be helpful. And if the job market improves -- and that remains a big IF -- then the Obama folks will look prescient with the Reagan comparison (and 2012 could be a layup). Of course, when things are going badly and there’s not much you can do about them (e.g., the economy), then you need to focus on the long run. If you don’t, you’ll have a panicked and knee-jerk presidency. There's nothing wrong with having a long view, but if all you have is the long view, then suddenly you'll find yourself with your opposition in charge -- and with the growing perception that you are politically weak or naïve or both.
*** Chamber 1, White House 0: At his rally yesterday in Philly, which an estimated 18,500 attended, Obama once again mentioned how outside GOP groups are spending millions upon millions in TV attack ads this cycle, without disclosing who has contributed to those groups. But the president dropped the line he used last week in Maryland and Illinois that one of the largest groups paying for these ads -- the U.S. Chamber of Commerce -- takes in money from foreign sources. Why? Maybe because the Saturday New York Times noted that “there is little evidence that what the chamber does in collecting overseas dues is improper or even unusual, according to both liberal and conservative election-law lawyers and campaign finance documents.” Then, CBS’s Bob Schieffer yesterday asked David Axelrod if he had proof of what the chamber was doing. Axe’s answer: “Well, do you have any evidence that it’s not, Bob?” Schieffer’s response: “If the only charge, three weeks into the election that the Democrats can make is that there’s somehow this may or may not be foreign money coming into the campaign, is that the best you can do?” Ouch.
*** Giving cover: Whatever traction the White House thought it was having on this issue of outside influence, this knee-jerk/badly researched riff about the Chamber gave cover to all the groups. The Crossroads folks are having a field day about the Chamber issue, and they weren't part of the initial debate over foreign money.
*** Another busy campaign week: It’s another busy campaign week for the White House. Today, Obama raises money in Miami for the DCCC. (Before that, he’ll make a statement on transportation at 10:50 am ET, and later in the day will meet with the students profiled in the documentary “Waiting for Superman.”) On Tuesday, he participates in a DNC-sponsored tele-town hall and holds another town hall, co-sponsored by MTV and BET, with younger voters on Thursday. On Friday, he goes to Delaware. He heads to Massachusetts on Saturday to campaign for Deval Patrick. And then on Sunday, he stumps for Gov. Ted Strickland in Ohio, and will be joined there by First Lady Michelle Obama. Speaking of the first lady, she campaigns this week for Russ Feingold in Wisconsin, Alexi Giannoulias in Illinois, and Michael Bennet in Colorado.
*** Giannoulias vs. Kirk: Meanwhile, Giannoulias (D) and Mark Kirk (R) squared off in a debate yesterday on “Meet the Press,” and NBC’s David Gregory asked each candidate about their flaws. Giannoulias on mob figures who had received loans at his family’s bank: “We didn’t know the extent of that activity.” And Kirk on his misstatements about his military record: “I made mistakes with regard to my military misstatements, I was careless, and, and I learned a very painful and humbling lesson. This is very important to me.” Our takeaway from yesterday: You saw two beaten-down candidates. Neither came across as optimistic, though Giannoulias tried to stay on message a tad better. It was a classic example of how a rough campaign with two damaged nominees can take a toll. The loser of this race is probably done in politics, and maybe that contributed to why they looked so downtrodden. They were like two boxers in the 15th round with nothing left and trading weak punches.
*** Springtime … for Rich Iott … in Germany… : There have been some, well, “interesting” candidates this cycle with some, well, “interesting” resumes. But this very well might take the cake. On Friday, the Atlantic’s Josh Green broke the news that Rich Iott, the GOP congressional nominee (and Tea Party favorite) running for Ohio’s 9th district, donned for years “a German Waffen SS uniform and participated in Nazi re-enactments.” More: "Iott ... was involved with a group that calls itself Wiking, whose members are devoted to re-enacting the exploits of an actual Nazi division.” Here's Iott's response: "It's purely historical interest in World War II... I've always been fascinated by the fact that here was a relatively small country that from a strictly military point of view accomplished incredible things. I mean, they took over most of Europe and Russia, and it really took the combined effort of the free world to defeat them. From a purely historical military point of view, that's incredible." Yesterday, GOP House Whip Eric Cantor, who is Jewish, condemned Iott's Nazi re-enactments. Republicans probably need to condemn this guy en masse. And don't be surprised if a bunch start doing the same with Carl Paladino.
*** Also this week: Tomorrow is the Jerry Brown-vs.-Meg Whitman debate at Dominican University, which is just outside of San Francisco. This final California gubernatorial debate comes just days after it was revealed that a Brown aide referred to Whitman as a “whore.” Also this week: Chris Coons and Christine O’Donnell debate on Wednesday; Sharron Angle and Harry Reid and Robin Carnahan and Roy Blunt debate on Thursday; Bill Clinton stumps for Jerry Brown on Friday and Sunday. And on Saturday, Sarah Palin participates in an RNC-sponsored rally in Anaheim, CA.
*** 75 House races to watch: WV-1: The Democratic nominee is state Sen. Mike Oliverio, who defeated incumbent Alan Mollohan in the Dem primary. His GOP opponent is former state party chairman David McKinley. In 2008, McCain won 57% of the vote in this district – which is located in the northern part of the state – while Bush got 58% in ’04. As of June 30, both Oliverio and McKinley had $300,000 in the bank. Cook and Rothenberg rate the race as Toss Up.
*** More midterm news: In Colorado, Ken Buck and Michael Bennet debate today… In Delaware, “Saturday Night Live” took another jab at Christine O’Donnell… In Florida, Alex Sink plans to air a rare two-minute ad against Rick Scott… In Indiana, Dan Coats and Brad Ellsworth debate today… In Kentucky, Jack Conway and Rand Paul debate… In West Virginia, Joe Manchin is up with a TV ad seizing on the “hicky” casting call in the NRSC’s recent ad (as well as the fact that his opponent’s wife is registered to vote in Florida)… And in Wisconsin, Russ Feingold and Ron Johnson debate today.
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 22 days
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