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  • Illinois candidate unamused by misspelling

    You can file this one under less-than-optimal typos:

    From the Chicago Sun-Times:

    The last name of Green Party gubernatorial candidate Rich Whitney is misspelled as "Whitey" on electronic-voting machines in nearly two dozen wards -- about half in predominantly African-American areas -- and election officials said Wednesday the problem cannot be corrected by Election Day.

    Whitney, the paper reports, is considering legal action to fix the mix-up before Election Day. He told the Sun-Times that the error may be the result of "machine politics."

    "In any event, whether it is or not, this has to be disconcerting to a voter," he said.

  • The kids aren't alright: Obama and the youth vote

    If you’re under 30 and registered to vote, the president – along with his political advisers – is talkin' 'bout your generation.

    President Barack Obama will made an appeal to youth voters Thursday in a commercial-free “youth town hall” broadcast on BET, MTV and CMT – his second event this week focused on energizing a key voting bloc for his party.

    Young people have provided substantial boosts for the Democratic Party for the last three election cycles, lending the lion’s share of their support to Democratic candidates in presidential and congressional races in 2004, 2006 and 2008.

    And they were particularly visible participants in Obama’s campaign, appearing in unprecedented droves at campaign events and donating money at higher-than-usual rates. Two-thirds of voters under 30 backed Obama in the 2008 election – a percentage that made the disparity between young and older voters the largest in the history of exit polling.

    But can the man who rode what looked like a spectacular generational wave two years ago inspire young people to turn out for somebody named Michael Bennet or Russ Feingold or Joe Sestak?

    Peter Levine, the director of the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement at Tufts University, sees why the strategy is an appealing one to the White House. “Campaigning to young people generally works,” he says. “And it’s cost-effective. It’s a good place to put your money because young voters aren’t usually being targeted by other groups, so your message isn’t diluted.”

    In tight statewide races like those in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – where the president has recently held rallies targeting young people – a small uptick in youth turnout could help Democrats beat expectations of the much-talked-about “enthusiasm gap” between the president’s party and the opposition.

    “This is an interesting strategy and it’s a good group for him to go after, but the yield is not going to be dramatic,” says Scott Keeter, director of survey research at the Pew Research Center. “He’s trying to make sure [youth turnout] doesn’t fall below 2006 levels.”

    That could be tough. According to Pew’s measures, the percentage of young Democrats who say they have “given a lot of thought” to the upcoming election has plummeted 20 points since the last off-year election in 2006. (Young people who identify as Republicans, by contrast, are even more engaged now than they were during the 1994 midterms.)

    That doesn’t mean that young people’s political affiliations have changed dramatically since 2006, although there has been some narrowing of Democrats’ advantage with youth voters since 2008. In 2006, 52 percent of voters under 30 described themselves as Democrats or Democratic-leaning; that number jumped to 62 percent in 2008 and is back to 56 percent now.

    But they’re just not all that interested in the election.

    In the latest NBC/WSJ poll, only 23 percent of voters aged 18 to 34 said that they have a high level of interest in the 2010 elections, compared to almost 50 percent of all respondents.

    Democrats are generally less engaged than Republicans this midterm cycle, Keeter says, and that trend is even slightly exaggerated among young people, who have been hit particularly hard by the economic recession.

    “Objectively, young people may actually have been hurt by the recession more than many older voters,” he says, adding that they’re likely to have difficulty finding jobs without prior experience and are more vulnerable to firings than longtime employees.

    “The fact that they’re still loyal to Democrats is somewhat amazing,” Keeter says. “Young people aren’t angry at the party in power, but the toll has come in their level of enthusiasm.”

    Another reason that young people might not turn out, Levine adds, is their feeling that Obama’s hopeful campaign messages have not resonated in his presidency.

    “They voted overwhelmingly for a particular flavor of change,” Levine says. “They’re either still hopeful or disappointed, and persistent unemployment for a young person is pretty disappointing.”

  • Mixing it up in Washington's Third District

    From msnbc.com's Tom Curry:

    LONGVIEW, Wash. -- The race in Washington’s Third Congressional District is crucial for control of the House. With ballots in voters’ mailboxes in the next few days, neither GOP candidate Jaime Herrera nor Democrat Denny Heck appear to have a significant lead even though political observers have seen the race trending toward the Republican in recent weeks. The two are vying for the seat being vacated by retiring Democrat, Rep. Brian Baird.

    The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee may have written off some House seats in Ohio, Pennsylvania and other states, but a DCCC operative was with Heck at Wednesday’s debates and this still seems a race Democrats might win even in a bad year for the party. A new poll in The Hill Wednesday showed the race statistically tied. The race is a good test district of the national mood, because it is a pure toss up with no ideological leaning one way or another and split evenly between Democratic and Republican voters.

    In their first two face-to-face debates Wednesday, Herrera, in contrast to the older, more aggressive, and wonkish Heck, came off as young, (she's 31), earnest, rather tense, and given to answering questions with generalities instead of specifics. in the second debate Wednesday night in Longview, Wash., she entirely skirted the question of what specific cuts she would make in federal spending

    Herrera had one seemingly spontaneous and personal moment in the first debate in Lacey, Wash., when asked to name the biggest mistake she has made in her life. "There were times I used credit cards to make ends meet. ... It is a big, big mistake ... I learned it is OK to not have a lot, it is OK to not have a brand-new car," she said.

    Heck, 58, a long-term Democratic insider as an ex-state legislator, former chief of staff to Gov. Booth Gardner in the 1990s, and candidate for state education superintendent, seemed by far the more self-assured candidate.

    Given the $1.3 trillion deficit, Heck's cost savings ideas may have sounded either small-bore (a ten percent pay cut for members of Congress which he insisted "isn't a gimmick") or untried on jittery 85-year old Medicare recipients (comparative effectiveness research in order to deter less useful medical procedures).

    But at least Heck's offerings were specific. Herrera offered no specific cuts in either debate. (After the Longview debate, when pressed for details, she said wanted $270 billion of unspent stimulus funds returned to taxpayers and elimination of bureaucracies created by Obama's health care bill.)

    If you were a deficit hawk, you couldn’t help noticing that Heck proposed more spending increases than spending cuts: he urged more outlays on the federal Title I education program, more money for educating handicapped children, more infrastructure spending, more spending on Mount St. Helens National Volcanic Monument, and a new tax break for buying American-made machinery (what's called a "tax expenditure" in budget lingo).

    At the Longview event Herrera faced an audience which included hostile Heck partisans who often booed, mocked, and heckled her, shouting "Answer the question" when she didn't supply specifics to a question about how to improve American education.

    Heck got one brief bout of abuse from Herrera partisans in the crowd when he said he supported an estate tax "because I believe there is a danger in the accumulated concentration of wealth."

    At one point Heck turned on Herrera and scolded her for repeatedly saying he supported cap-and-trade legislation. "Unless you can provide proof that I've ever said that I would vote for that bill, I would kindly thank you for stop saying that which is not true."

    Heck bad-mouthed the stimulus as spending too little and too slowly on infrastructure and not channeling enough money to this congressional district and other high unemployment areas. But flawed execution, Heck said after the first debate, "is not a reason never to do it again or never to try again."

    Herrera inexplicably failed to avail herself of the candid remark President Obama made in Wednesday's New York Times about the stimulus program. What he'd discovered in retrospect, the president said, was that "there's no such thing as shovel-ready projects." It seemed a line tailor-made for assailing Heck's support for the stimulus, but Herrera said instead "over the last two years we’ve seen that when government takes and spends more of our money, they can't get it right."

    If Herrera wins, it may be in spite of her soft-spoken and less aggressive debate style and because she offers herself as the candidate of change: "If the economy is where you'd like to see it, then don't change direction."

    If Heck wins, in a district that Republicans ought to win if it's a wave election, then maybe 2010 isn't shaping up to be a wave year. Or perhaps this will turn out to be one race where the more self-assured and hard-punching candidate wins despite a national tide which looks ready to pull down Democrats in other districts.

  • First Thoughts: I want my MTV

    Why Obama is focusing on younger voters… His MTV/BET/CMT town hall is at 4:00 pm ET… Is something going on Alaska’s Senate race? Don’t forget about Scott McAdams… Breaking down the movement in other key Senate contests… Mark Kirk and Alex Sink unable to pull away against their flawed opponents… VCI update: -40… Michelle Obama in CO, Bill Clinton in NM, and Joe Biden in IN… Four Senate debates to watch today… Is Blumenthal beginning to pull away in CT?... And spotlight on HI-1.


    *** I want my MTV… : Once again today, President Obama is focused on turning out young voters. At 4:00 pm ET, he participates in a town hall that’s being broadcast live on MTV, BET, and CMT. Why is he spending his time on young voters and not, say, Democratic-leaning seniors (the Washington Post notes that likely senior voters are breaking the GOP’s way, while less likely senior voters are potential Dem votes)? Our take: Democrats are dividing up the labor. Obama is working on young voters -- who often take the most time and effort to turn out -- and African Americans. That leaves other Dem targets (like soft seniors and soft labor) to the Democratic candidates and Dem-leaning groups themselves. Turning out younger voters is hard and expensive so at this point, it probably makes the most sense for DNC/Obama to do this. By the way, the DNC is up with a new TV ad (airing on BET and MSNBC) featuring footage of Obama’s recent rallies with young voters in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

    *** Is something going on in Alaska? It very well could be that Alaska’s three-way Senate contest is more of a contest than Florida’s three-way. Consider: Scott McAdams (D) has raised a significant amount of money by Alaska standards ($685,000 in the past quarter) and his ads are compelling (the Hulk tie and the Inouye endorsement were interesting tributes to Ted Stevens); Joe Miller (R) hasn’t been running a very good race (see: his press conference announcing that he wouldn’t take questions about his past); and there is uncertainty (anecdotally from folks in the Anchorage business community) that Lisa Murkowski can’t win a write-in campaign. In fact, the McAdams fundraising surge (again, by Alaska standards) may be evidence that some in Anchorage biz community are their hedging bets. Bottom line: Don’t be surprised if we begin to see a McAdams surge, or if we begin to see some outside groups jump and, well, muck around.

    *** How the rest of the Senate map looks: Here’s our understanding of how other Senate races are trending today, per conservations with Democrats and Republicans over the last 48 hours. First, Democrats have some momentum in Illinois (which is a Toss Up contest) and in Pennsylvania (which we have had Lean Republican). Second, both Colorado (Toss Up) and Wisconsin (Toss Up) appear to be moving toward the Republicans a bit. Third, we don’t think anyone has a handle on Nevada, which seems like a pure 50%-50% race -- or, because of “none of the above” and other third-party candidates on the ballot, 45%-45%. And fourth, Democrats seem to have solidified their standing in Connecticut (Lean Democrat) and in California (Toss Up), though we'll know more next week. And then there's Washington, where Murray looked like she was solidifying and now that seems to have moved back into a pure Toss Up. If the GOP can put away either CO or WI quickly, don't be surprised if Rossi becomes beneficiary. As for West Virginia, it’s another pure Toss Up, as Manchin has appeared to stop the bleeding for now, thanks to the "hicky" business.

    *** Kirk and Sink unable to pull away: Speaking of Illinois, the fact that Mark Kirk (R) has been unable to pull away from Alexi Giannoulias (D) -- despite Giannoulias’ bank woes -- has to be one of the Republicans’ biggest disappointments this general-election cycle. Indeed, the mirror image appears to be playing out in Florida’s gubernatorial contest, where Alex Sink (D) hasn’t been able to pull away from Rick Scott (R), despite Scott’s problems with his old Columbia/HCA hospital chain. Both Kirk and Sink could very well win next month. But both also shouldn’t be in dead heats right now. Does this mean they are running the most lackluster campaigns of the cycle? Perhaps, at least right now.

    *** Our latest VCI update: -40: Voters’ level of confidence has appeared to solidify before this 2010 midterm election. And it’s not good news for the Democrats. For the second straight month, NBC’s Voter Confidence Index shows President Obama and Democrats near -40. September’s VCI average was -39, and with a spate of polls out this month, it is now exactly -40. That is worse than President Clinton and the Democrats in 1994 (VCI: -30) when Democrats lost 54 seats in the House, and worse than Ronald Reagan and the Republican in 1982 (VCI: -35), when the GOP lost 26 House seats. It remains better than former President George W. Bush in 2006 (VCI: -65), when Republicans lost 30 seats. More on the VCI here and here.

    *** First lady still on the trail: After hitting Wisconsin and Illinois yesterday, First Lady Michelle Obama is in Colorado, campaigning for Sen. Michael Bennet. Elsewhere, former President Bill Clinton stumps in New Mexico for Lt. Gov. Diane Denish, who’s running for governor. And Vice President Biden stumps for Indiana Senate nominee Brad Ellsworth.

    *** Four Senate debates to watch: The marquee debate is in Nevada, where Harry Reid (D) and Sharron Angle (R) face off. Other debates today: Jack Conway (D) vs. Rand Paul (R) in Kentucky, Roy Blunt (R) vs. Robin Carnahan (D) in Missouri, and Dino Rossi (R) vs. Patty Murray (D) in Washington state.

    *** Is Blumenthal beginning to pull away? In Connecticut’s Senate contest, a new Quinnipiac poll shows Richard Blumenthal leading Linda McMahon by 11 points among likely voters, 54%-43%. That’s a significant change from Blumenthal’s three-point lead in the poll late last month. (Did Quinnipiac tinker with its likely-voter model?) A front-page New York Times story notes how McMahon appears to be struggling with female voters.

    *** 75 House races to watch: HI-1: The GOP nominee is first term Rep. Charles Djou, who was elected in a May special election to fill the seat vacated by Neil Abercrombie (D), who’s running for governor. The Dem nominee is state Senate President Colleen Hanabusa. In 2008, Obama won 70% of the vote in this district – which represents Honolulu – while Kerry got 53% in 2004. As of Aug. 29, Djou had nearly $430,000 in the bank, versus Hanabusa’s $400,000. Cook and Rothenberg rate the race as a Toss Up.

    Countdown to Election Day 2010: 19 days

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  • Obama agenda: Michelle Obama’s day on the trail

    The AP on First Lady Michelle Obama’s campaigning: “The two-state Midwest swing was the first time the popular first lady has hit the campaign trail since her husband's 2008 election. Over the next two weeks, she has other stops planned in Colorado, Connecticut, New York, Washington, California and a joint rally Sunday with her husband in Ohio. Obama talked about her husband's accomplishments in office but acknowledged there was still work to be done.” She said she would cast her ballot today in Chicago and encouraged others to vote early.

    The Washington Post: "Her presence on the trail, a welcome one for struggling Democrats in need of money and a re-energized base, adds another layer to Obama's role as first lady - one she, like other first ladies, took to with some reluctance but then seemed to embrace. In highly personal terms, Obama lays out the case for her husband's agenda, vouching for his policies and who he is as a person, and urge support for Democrats locked in tight races."

    In Wisconsin, “Mrs. Obama lauded Feingold for supporting health care reform and campaign finance reform, and for fighting to create jobs and cut taxes. She also touted Feingold's maverick credentials, saying the president has mentioned how Feingold doesn't always agree with him. ‘So Russ, you and I have a little something in common,’ she said, drawing laughter.”

    “President Obama's former car czar Steve Rattner will fork over $5 million to the feds for his role in a massive state pension fund pay-to-play scandal,” the New York Daily News reports. “In addition to paying the Securities and Exchange Commission, Rattner will be barred from working in the securities industry, a source with knowledge of the deal said.”

  • Yesterday's debates

    ARIZONA: “The son of former Vice President Dan Quayle and his Democratic opponent in Arizona's 3rd Congressional District focused on questioning each other's character in their only televised debate Wednesday, doing little to differentiate themselves on the issues. Democrat Jon Hulburd got things started by questioning Republican Ben Quayle about his involvement with a sex-steeped Arizona website, repeatedly asking him why he would want to draw Internet traffic to the racy site.”

    ARKANSAS: The AP on the Lincoln-Boozman debate: “Democratic Arkansas Sen. Blanche Lincoln repeatedly painted herself as an independent voice and moderate lawmaker on Wednesday during her second debate with her Republican challenger Rep. John Boozman, who sought to link the two-term senator to President Barack Obama and his agenda. Lincoln, who trails Boozman in most polls and is viewed as one of the Senate's most vulnerable incumbents this year, emphasized her ability to work with Republicans and Democrats and said she bows to no political agenda.”

    CONNECTICUT: The AP wraps yesterday’s gubernatorial debate: “The Republican candidate for governor in Connecticut promised not to raise taxes while his Democratic opponent said he couldn't make that pledge during a debate Wednesday night.”


    DELAWARE: The AP on the Coons-O’Donnell debate: Trailing by double-digits in most polls, Republican Senate candidate Christine O'Donnell went on the offensive Wednesday, attacking Democrat Chris Coons as a career politician with Marxist views who would raise taxes and rubber-stamp Democratic policies. Coons, meanwhile, during a nationally televised debate portrayed O'Donnell as an extremist more interested in clever sound bites than offering solutions to the problems confronting the nation.”

    The New York Daily News: “Christine O'Donnell's first debate with her opponent was no cup of tea. The GOP nominee for Delaware's Senate seat and Tea Party darling went on the attack Wednesday night against her Democratic opponent, Chris Coons, but found herself mostly on the defensive.”

    In a debate last night, Republican Christine O’Donnell “stuck to her theme of smaller government and lower taxes, and returned to attacks against Coons for his tax increases as New Castle County executive,” the Wilmington News-Journal reported. Democrat Chris Coons “highlighted his proposed programs, criticizing O'Donnell for a lack of specifics.”

    More from the debate: “When asked to name a recent U.S. Supreme Court decision that she disagreed with, O'Donnell was unable to name one. ‘Oh gosh, give me a specific one,’ O'Donnell responded. When [the moderator] told O'Donnell she had to think of one herself, she said she would post one on her website later. Coons cited the Citizens United decision, which ruled that corporations could spend unlimited funds on political advertisements.”

    “At one point, O'Donnell referred to multiple skits on Saturday Night Live, spoofing her as a witch,” the Philadelphia Inquirer recounts. “‘You're just jealous you weren't on Saturday Night Live,’ she said to Coons. ‘I'm dying to know who will play me, Christine,’ he said.”

    Mike Castle says he won’t endorse.

    MASSACHUSETTS: “Hours before a judge heard a contentious lawsuit, the Massachusetts gubernatorial candidates were essentially put on trial Wednesday as a debate moderator asked them a searing series of questions about alleged backroom dealings in the campaign,” AP writes. “Republican Charles Baker, independent Timothy Cahill, Democratic Gov. Deval Patrick and Green-Rainbow Party candidate Jill Stein were called to account before 500 business and community leaders in the aftermath of a dizzying spate of developments recently that have overshadowed any focus on more pedestrian issues such as job growth and tax policy.”

  • The midterms: Saving Harry Reid

    “Republican and Democratic officials say Democrats are planning to sink more than $2 million into television advertising to try to save Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid in Nevada while scaling back spending in Missouri as polls show their candidate trailing,” the AP writes.

    Three Republican groups - American Crossroads, American Action Network and the Commission on Hope, Growth and Opportunity - are “launching a $50 million advertising blitz this week in a final push to help the GOP win a majority in the House, representing the biggest spending blitz ever by such groups in a congressional election campaign,” the Wall Street Journal writes.

    More: “The coordinated effort, which the groups have dubbed the ‘House surge strategy,’ tops what the official Republican House election committee expects to spend on television ads for the entire contest. It is aimed at the few dozen competitive races where Democratic candidates have significantly more money in the bank than their Republican opponents, eating into one of the Democrats' last financial advantages.”

    Now, that’s SOME likely voter model: “Likely voters in battleground districts see extremists as having a more dominant influence over the Democratic Party than the GOP,” The Hill writes. “This result comes from The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll, which found that 44 percent of likely voters say the Democratic Party is more dominated by its extreme elements; whereas 37 percent say it’s the Republican Party that is more dominated by extremists.”


    Here’s The Hill’s interactive map of its congressional district polls.

    “The DNC released a new television ad, ‘Make History Again,’ to coincide with Obama's simulcast town hall on MTV, CMT, and BET as part of the party's effort to drive young voter turnout on Nov. 2,” The Hill reports. "The ad is the first to run on BET this election cycle, and is part of a $3 million push -- the most in the party's history -- in spending by the DNC to court black voters through traditionally African American media outlets.”

    ALASKA: It’s official. “Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) submitted paperwork Wednesday to make her write-in re-election campaign official, the Associated Press reported,” Roll Call writes.

    CALIFORNIA: The AP writes, “The president of the National Organization for Women says California gubernatorial candidate Jerry Brown should fire any campaign aide who uses the word ‘whore,’ as one of his aides did recently. NOW President Terry O'Neill also criticized Brown on Wednesday for saying during a debate that the private banter -- inadvertently captured on a telephone recorder -- is the kind of thing that typically happens in a campaign.” Brown’s campaign before the debate told First Read that it would not be conducting an investigation into who the staffer was, when asked directly if they would fire the individual. If this were a presidential campaign, the calls would have come faster to dismiss the staffer. http://bit.ly/cs9e7C and

    FLORIDA: Quinnipiac has Marco Rubio (R) up 44%-30% over Charlie Crist (I). Kendrick Meek (D) pulls just 22%.

    Robert F. Kennedy Jr. endorsed Gov. Charlie Crist in his Senate bid yesterday. In a statement, Kennedy praised Crist’s record on the environment, saying “Charlie Crist has been a champion for environmental protection, alternative energy, and green economy jobs. On the other hand, Tea Party darling Marco Rubio has assumed the radical role of climate change denier.”

    GEORGIA: “Democratic Rep. Sanford Bishop’s once-safe hold on his southwest Georgia district has slipped away less than a month before Election Day, and the contest is now a statistical tie, according to a new survey from the campaign of state Rep. Mike Keown (R),” Roll Call writes. “Bishop led Keown 47 percent to 46 percent with 7 percent undecided. The 1-point difference was well within the survey’s 4.9-point margin of error. Keown’s poll, which was conducted by the GOP firm Public Opinion Strategies, was in the field Sept. 27 and 28 and surveyed 400 likely 2nd district voters. The new poll came four weeks after another POS survey showed Bishop ahead 50 percent to 44 percent.”

    NEVADA: AP previews tonight’s Reid-Angle debate: Early voting begins Saturday and Angle has said she would not debate after that because she wants an ‘informed electorate.’ With both candidates tied in the polls and only a handful of voters undecided, any hint of a gaffe or an unrestrained gesture during the hourlong debate could sway the race's outcome.”

    The Boston Globe goes to Nevada to look at the Senate race.

    NEW YORK: “An upstate website is hitting Carl Paladino right in his self-proclaimed religious values - by dumping a new batch of sexually explicit emails he forwarded,” the New York Daily News reports. “The emails, some dating back to 2008, were posted Wednesday on WNYMedia.net, which first revealed an earlier batch of smutty and racist missives. One of the new emails -- sent a year ago -- shows a young, pigtailed woman engaging in sexual acts. ‘Awesome,’ Paladino reportedly wrote.”

    “Carl Paladino, a strong opponent of abortion, doesn't let his religious beliefs get in the way of making a quick profit,” the New York Post reports. “The Buffalo bomb-thrower, who says his Catholic beliefs require him to oppose abortion -- including in cases of rape and incest -- is the landlord for a Planned Parenthood in Niagara Falls, The Post learned yesterday. The center provides services including the RU-486 pill, which Planned Parenthood calls ‘medication abortion.’”

  • Poll: Reid leads Angle by 3

    A new poll could provide a little bit of good news for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, whose Tea-Party backed opponent, Sharron Angle, announced yesterday that she raised an astonishing $14 million in just three months.

    The survey from Suffolk University shows Reid with a 3-point lead over Angle – within the poll’s margin of error but one of Reid’s best performances in a nonpartisan poll since early last month.

    The poll showed 46 percent of likely Nevada voters supporting Reid, 43 supporting Angle, and 2 percent supporting Tea Party candidate Scott Ashjian. Three percent of likely voters said “None of these candidates” when they were given the option to “lean” towards one of the contenders; when asked whom they supported without including the “lean” option, 13 percent said they would support none of them.

    It’s not hard to see why Nevada voters might be dissatisfied with their major candidates. Fifty-two percent of respondents said they said they had an unfavorable opinion of Angle, and 54 percent said the same of Reid.

  • Ad Watch: Whitman's Chinese-American outreach

    From NBC's Ali Weinberg and Alison Bruno
    Meg Whitman
    releases an ad in Mandarin and Cantonese… Alexi Giannoulias utilizes footage from “Meet the Press”… And Carl Paladino has “A Plan”… In AL-2, Bobby Bright tells voters he’s not a liberal… Jim Marshall’s ad in GA-8, like that of Bill Owens’ in NY-23, plays up his conservative voting record.

    CA GOV, Whitman “My Community” (translated from Mandarin and Cantonese)

    10/12

    ANNCR: Meg Whitman understands our community. She knows entrepreneurship, high-tech jobs and education are the keys to our future. She was a success at eBay, taking it from 30 people to 15,000. She can help California too. She'll get our economy moving with less taxes and red tape on small business. Control wasteful spending. Cut regulation. And invest in schools. More money in the classroom, help for higher education. Meg Whitman. The change we need to get California going again.

    IL SEN, Giannoulias “Whopper”
    10/12

    GIANNOULIAS: I'm Alexi Giannoulias, and I approve this message. NBC'S GREGORY: But the question, Mr. Giannoulias, should tax cuts be paid for? GIANNOULIAS: And this is why this race is so important. This is a fundamental public policy difference between myself and Congressman Kirk. He says he's a fiscal hawk. Look, the congressman has told some real whoppers during this campaign, but that may be the biggest one of all. He voted for every single one of the Bush budgets, which doubled our national debt. He voted to increase his own pay six times. He voted for the bridge to nowhere twice. He voted to raise the debt ceiling four times. The list goes on and on. So, Congressman, saying you're a fiscal hawk doesn't necessarily make it true, and your voting record proves that it's not true. The question is, for the Congressman, the $700 billion in tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans, we don't have $700 billion. So my question to the congressman is, which country do you plan on borrowing $700 billion from? The Saudis? China? We can't afford it. And that's one of the problems, quite frankly, with Washington, D.C., this overborrowing, overspending.

    NY GOV, Paladino “I’ve Got A Plan”
    10/12

    PALADINO: Hi, I'm Carl Paladino. Unemployment is at record levels. The state budget is out of control. Taxes are driving good jobs and companies from our state. Albany insiders like Andrew Cuomo have failed us. Albany needs a major overhaul and I've got a plan to do it. I'll cut taxes by 10%, cut state spending by 20%, and stamp out corruption with new full disclosure laws for state legislators. We can get New York moving again and I'm not afraid to do it.

    AL-2, Bright, “Just Bobby”
    10/12

    BRIGHT: "I've heard my constituents and they don't want a liberal running the House, they want a conservative. I'm going to vote for the person who will allow me to best represent my constituents. I've already voted to repeal a portion of [the health care law], and anyone who tells you otherwise is just downright lying to you. I'm the most independent member of Congress and what I try to do is bring people together to make good things happen for our country. I'm Bobby Bright and I approve this message, and I sure hope you do too."

    GA-8, Marshall, “Long Way”
    10/13

    MARSHALL: "I'm Jim Marshall and I approve this message." ANNCR: "Georgia is a long way from San Francisco, and Jim Marshall is a long way from Nancy Pelosi. Jim Marshall doesn't support Nancy Pelosi, he voted the same as Republican leaders 65 percent of the time. Jim Marshall worked and voted against Nancy Pelosi's trillion-dollar health care bill because we can't afford it. And Jim Marshall is endorsed by the NRA, Right-to-Life, and the Chamber of Commerce. They wouldn't have anything to do with a Nancy Pelosi supporter."


    NY-23, Owens, “People Know”

    10/12

    OWENS: "I'm Bill Owens and I approve this message." ANNCR: "Wall Street people sure know how to lie with numbers. Bill Owens didn't vote with Nancy Pelosi 93 percent of the time. He voted with the Republican leader 63 percent of the time. And Bill Owens strengthened Medicare with better prescription drug coverage. Matt Doheny wants to replace Medicare with private bouchers and reduced benefits. He promoted it with his own money. And Matt Doheny said he wants to cut Social Security benefits too. Matt Doheny won't stand up for us."

  • Voter confidence remains low for Obama, Democrats

    VCI UPDATE: -40 (down from -39 in September)

    Voters’ level of confidence has appeared to solidify before this 2010 midterm election. And it’s not good news for President Obama and the Democratic Party.

    For the second straight month, NBC’s Voter Confidence Index shows the American voters' level of confidence in President Obama and Democrats is at about -40.

    September’s VCI average was -39, and with a spate of polls out this month, it is largely unchanged, ticking down one point to -40 for the month of October so far.

    That is worse than President Clinton and the Democrats in 1994 when Democrats lost 54 seats in the House, and worse than Ronald Reagan and the Republicans in 1982, when the GOP lost 26 House seats. It remains better than former President George W. Bush in 2006, who had a VCI of -65, and Republicans lost 30 seats.

    For more on the VCI, check out: VCI.msnbc.com

  • Obama to Congress: make college tax credit permanent

    From NBC's Athena Jones
    WASHINGTON, Oct 13 --
    As part of an effort to boost the number of American college graduates, President Obama on Wednesday asked Congress to make permanent a tax credit to help make higher education more affordable.

    The American Opportunity Tax Credit (AOTC) was part of the stimulus program passed soon after the president took office and it is due to expire this year. The White House estimates the cost of making the credit -- which provides up to $2,500 a year to college students -- at $58 billion over the next ten years.

    "I am calling on Congress to make this tax credit permanent so it's worth up to $10,000 for four years of college, because we've gotta make sure that in good times or bad, our families can invest in their children's future and in the future of our country," the president said in the Rose Garden, where he was joined on stage by college students and their families.

    Obama, who often says education is key to the country's ability to compete globally, wants America to lead the world in the proportion of college graduates by the year 2020. Officials like Melody Barnes, the director of the White House Domestic Policy Council, often talk about steps the administration has taken to reduce some of the burden for students families paying for college, like increasing the size of Pell Grants, capping loan repayments at 10% of income starting in 2014 and forgiving loans after 10 years for graduates who go into public service jobs like teaching.

    Citing a report by the Treasury Department released today, the president said that during his first year in office, his administration had increased tax credits for higher education by over 90 percent. He said the government should make it possible for all of America's working families to send their kids to college, while again slamming Republicans for their proposal to pay for tax cuts for the wealthy in part by cutting education funding.

    "If Republicans in Congress had their way, that would be more difficult," he said. "They've proposed cutting back on education by 20%."

    He went on to say GOP-proposed cuts would reduce financial aid for 8 million students and leave community colleges without the resources they need to prepare students for the jobs of the future.

    "Nothing would be more short-sighted," Obama said. "There's an educational arms race taking place around the world right now -- from China to Germany to India to South Korea. Cutting back on education would amount to unilateral disarmament. We can't afford to do that."

    In a conference call previewing the event, administration officials said they would not "prejudge the congressional strategy" for getting a bill to make this credit permanent passed, saying only that they hoped to "work in the most constructive way with Congress as possible" to do it -- an acknowledgment that the November election and other legislative priorities could delay action.

    According to the Treasury Department's report on the impact of the AOTC, some 12.5 million students and their families were helped in 2009, with recipients receiving an average tax credit of more than $1,700. Officials pointed out that the AOTC provided 75 percent more aid to students and their families than the Hope Scholarships, which were instituted during the Clinton administration.

    Counselor to the Treasury Secretary Gene Sperling, who was part of the Clinton administration, called AOTC the "next big step" when it comes to college tax credits and said it addressed the concerns of previous credits like the Hope Scholarship, including the fact that college costs have gone up and that the previous credit did not cover the third and fourth years of college.

    The AOTC is phased out for joint filers making $160,000-$180,000 and for single taxpayers who make $80,000-$90,000, providing more help to more middle class families than the Hope credit, which phased out between $100,000 and $120,000 for married couples filing jointly and at $50,000 to $60,000 for single taxpayers.

  • Obama hails Chilean mine rescue

    From NBC's Athena Jones
    WASHINGTON, Oct 13 -- The Chilean people have inspired the world, President Obama said as he applauded the rescue of miners at Camp Esperanza.

    Rescue efforts were still underway as Obama spoke in the Rose Garden at an event highlighting college tax credits. Some 18 of the 33 miners had been retrieved after more than two months underground in the mine in the Atacama desert in northern Chile.

    "This rescue is a tribute not only to the determination of the rescue workers and the Chilean government but also the unity and resolve of the Chilean people," the president said. "I want to express the hopes of the American people that the miners who are still trapped underground would be returned home safely as soon as possible."

    White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs told reporters in the morning press gaggle that the president would likely call Chilean President Sebastian Pinera. Pinera has heard from presidents from around the region and from British Prime Minister David Cameron, according to his Twitter account.

    Gibbs also said President Obama watched the rescue as it unfolded last night.

    "Let me also commend so many people of goodwill -- not only in Chile, but also from the US and around the world who are lending a hand in this rescue effort," Obama said in the Rose Garden. "From the NASA team that helped design the escape vehicle to American companies that manufactured and delivered parts of the rescue drill to the American engineer who flew in from Afghanistan to operate the drill."

  • First Lady fires up WI voters

    By NBC's John Yang and Adam Verdugo
    In her first campaign appearance since 2008, First Lady Michelle Obama's mission in the midterm elections was clear: Try to rekindle the excitement and enthusiasm of President Obama's campaign, which energized young, first-time and independent voters.

    Mrs. Obama made repeated references to that race in her appearance at a luncheon fundraiser for Sen. Russ Feingold (D-Wis.), who is in a tough re-election bid, at the U.S. Cellular Arena in downtown Milwaukee.

    "I think about how we all felt on Election Night," she said to applause and cheers. "And I think about how we felt on Inauguration Day--we were excited, we were energized, we were hopeful, we were fired up because we knew we had a chance to change the country that we love for the better."

    Recalling her 2008 campaign appearances, Mrs. Obama said: "I asked you to have my husband's back. … Remember? I gave him to you. But he can't do it alone."

    The First Lady urged the crowd who paid at least $250 a head for a lunch of a flank steak sandwich, salad and chocolate cake: "We need you to find those folks who are planning to sit this one out--find them! We need you to tell them that they can't vote just once … they've got to vote this time and every time. We need you to get them fired up!"

    Today is the beginning of a seven-state swing of solo fundraising events that will take her to some of the Democrats' toughest races as they battle to keep control of Congress. She'll also join her husband to campaign in Ohio on Sunday.

    Mrs. Obama is much more popular these days than the President, especially among his liberal base. A new CNN poll out today gives her a 65-percent approval rating--50 percent among conservatives.

    "In some ways Michelle Obama has maintained a connection that the President has lost," said Nia-Malika Henderson, who writes about the First Lady for the Washington Post. "She very much as kept a lot of the 'cool factor,' if you will, from the campaign of 2008."

    Key to that appeal is her self-described role as "Mom-in-Chief." Indeed, her speech today speech tried to stay above the partisan fray. She listed the administration's accomplishments including health care and credit card reform. She drew applause and cheers when she reminded the crowd that the first bill President Obama signed into law was to ensure women equal pay for equal work.

    "I come at this stuff as a Mom," she said. "My children are the center of my world. My hopes for their future are at the heart of every single thing I do."

    "Her popularity gives her some ability to talk to voters who won't even listen to the President," said political analyst Stuart Rothenberg.

    Tonight, Mrs. Obama will be in Chicago for two more fundraisers: One for Alexi Giannoulias, the Democratic candidate in a neck-and-neck race for the Senate seat her husband held, and another for three Chicago-area House candidates.

    She'll spend a rare night in the Obamas' Hyde Park home and on Thursday, before flying to Denver for a fundraising luncheon for Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.), the First Lady will put something else in the bank for Democratic candidates: Her vote, as she'll participate in early voting in Chicago.

  • Raese, missile defense, and 'lasers in the sky'

    From NBC's Shawna Thomas and Carrie Dann
    INWOOD W.V. West Virginia Republican candidate John Raese on Tuesday outlined his focus on national defense by calling for an extensive laser-based missile defense system.

    A very extensive one.

    "If there is a rogue missile aimed at our country, we have 33 minutes to figure out what we’re going to do," Raese said at an event sponsored by the League of American Voters. "We are sitting with the only technology in the world that works and it’s laser technology. We need 1000 laser systems put in the sky and we need it right now. That is [of] paramount importance."

    Raese said the system would cost $20 billion.

    Laser-based technology has been long discussed as a promising method for deterring missiles, but experts say that components of a system like the one Raese described are in the infant stages of research and development and would require the negotiation of staggeringly complex international treaties.

    Riki Ellison, the chairman of the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance, said that Raese appeared to be referring to DPALs (diode pumped alkali lasers), which have shown great promise in the field of missile defense but - at least at current funding levels for the development of such programs - could take two decades to develop. He said that the development of DPAL technology would be accelerated by Raese's proposed budget infusion (the Obama administration recently reduced funding for the Missile Defense Agency). But, he added, deploying that technology in space would require the negotiation of a treaty among world powers.

    "That's a significant policy challenge," Ellison said.

    Raese's wide-ranging conversation Monday was sponsored by the League of American Voters in association with local Tea Party group Blue Ridge Patriots. In addition to national defense, Raese touched on term limits, the war in Afghanistan, getting rid of the minimum wage and abolishing the IRS and the Department of Energy. About 100 people attended.

    If elected, Raese said that on his first day as a senator, he will introduce a “termination and repeal of Obamacare.” He also said he supports making the Bush tax cuts permanent and ensuring that the “cap and trade” bill in the Senate does not become law.

    A Blue Ridge Patriot representative said the town hall was advertised on local radio as well as to a list of at least 100 journalists statewide. Most of the crowd seemed to be Raese supporters.

    The Patriots invited Raese's Democratic opponent, Gov. Joe Manchin, but they said he respectfully declined the invitation.

    Here's the video:

  • After VFW asks PAC to rescind endorsements, PAC sticks by process

    *** UPDATE *** The VFW PAC is sticking by its endorsement process. Full press release below...

    It's not everyday this happens.

    The Veterans of Foreign Wars has asked its political action committee to rescind its endorsements of incumbent Democrats Sen. Barbara Boxer and Rep. Ron Klein (FL-22) because of outrage among its members for endorsing them.

    Here's the VFW's spokesman: "This election cycle, I don't even think 'divisive' is a good word for it. It's not strong enough," Newberry said. "It stands to reason if that's the climate in the country, it's going to apply in this case."

    AP:

    Endorsements from the Veterans of Foreign Wars Political Action Committee have so enraged many VFW members that
    its elected leaders have asked the PAC to immediately rescind all endorsements for next month's election. The PAC operates separately from the veterans group and bases its endorsements on how lawmakers voted on issues of importance to veterans and members of the military.

    But hundreds of VFW members have been calling the national headquarters in recent days to complain, particularly about two races -- both featuring Democratic incumbents.

    In one race, Sen. Barbara Boxer of California got the PAC's endorsement over Republican Carly Fiorina. In the other, Rep. Ron Klein of Florida got the endorsement over Republican and Iraq war veteran Allen West.

    In calling on the PAC to rescind its endorsements, the VFW's commander in chief, Richard L. Eubank, and two other officers said that the endorsement process "unintentionally provided favoritism to the incumbents."

    "It is now evident it was unfairly skewed," Eubank wrote in a letter published on the organization's website.

    The VFW has about 1.2 million members, and the endorsement from its PAC is usually widely advertised by the candidates.

    Jerry Newberry, the VFW's director of communications, said Wednesday that the group's national headquarters in Kansas City, Mo., receives complaints about endorsements every election. However, this year's outcry has been the strongest, said Newberry, because of the rising use of technology as well as growing partisanship.

    "This election cycle, I don't even think 'divisive' is a good word for it. It's not strong enough," Newberry said. "It stands to reason if that's the climate in the country, it's going to apply in this case."

    The PAC's criteria for endorsements require senators to vote in favor of the VFW's position on seven of nine measures that were approved in 2008 and 2009. Its criteria for House members require votes in favor of the VFW's position on 10 of 13.

    VFW PAC sticks by its endorsement process, full release:

    VFW-PAC Stands By Endorsement Process

    WASHINGTON, DC, Oct 13,2010 - The VFW-PAC was established in 1979 by the Veterans of Foreign Wars of the United States (VFW) as a separate, nonpartisan organization charged with the single task of working in Congress to support candidates who have taken responsible positions on issues involving national defense and legislation pertaining to the nation's veterans.

    An eleven member Board of Directors reviews and establishes the criteria used for the endorsement process each election cycle. This cycle the Board chose a methodology for endorsement that was used successfully in years past; grading an incumbent's support by the position taken on critical issues of importance to the VFW. Therefore, thirteen roll call votes in the House of Representatives and nine votes in the Senate that aligned with VFW priority goals were selected to grade the support of incumbent members of Congress. The bar was set high, as a Senator must have voted in concert with the VFW position on 7 of 9 votes and a Representative 10 of 13 to receive the VFW-PAC endorsement. If a member of Congress failed to make the grade, the Board would consider a challenger for that Congressional seat. The Board would also consider candidates running for open seats. Both challengers and open seat candidates would have to state in writing their position on VFW priority goals.

    There are a few races out of 356 endorsed candidates in both the House and Senate, where emotions are running high, that are getting a lot of attention. In some cases there are veterans and even VFW members running against Congressional incumbents endorsed by the VFW-PAC. It would not only be unfair, but contrary to VFW-PAC By-Laws to disregard the incumbent's record of support and endorse another candidate. The VFW-PAC will not abandon those in Congress that have supported issues of critical importance to our nation's security and veterans.

    In the political endorsement arena, there will always be party loyalists and individuals that will not agree with the VFW-PAC decision. The Board respects their position and appreciates their activism in support of the candidate of their choice. The VFW-PAC endorsement is not designed to tell people how to vote; but to point out who has demonstrated support for veterans and America's security.

    The VFW-PAC disagrees with those who claim the endorsement process is skewed, flawed, or unfair. Some incumbents will have an advantage over another candidate because they have a good voting record on the issues. They also have a disadvantage if their votes don't support the VFW's position. Holding lawmakers accountable and judging them by their actions on legislative issues is a fair and necessary standard. This Congress has been very good to veterans and incumbent endorsements reflect that support.

    The VFW-PAC stands by the endorsement process used during the 2010 election cycle.

  • Paladino loses Orthodox rabbi's endorsement

    It's understandable that Carl Paladino might lose some endorsements because of his comments about gays.

    But, how about because he apologized for them?

    AP:

    An Orthodox rabbi says he's withdrawing his endorsement of New York gubernatorial candidate Carl Paladino because the Republican apologized for comments he made about gays. Rabbi Yehuda Levin, who represents an umbrella organization of ultra-Orthodox clerics, accused Paladino on Wednesday of bowing to political pressure when he apologized for saying children shouldn't be "brainwashed" into thinking homosexuality is acceptable. Levin -- speaking in New York City in front of St. Patrick's Cathedral -- says he can't support Paladino's campaign "until such time as he straightens out." He also called on Archbishop Timothy Dolan to speak out against Paladino. The campaign didn't immediately respond to a request for comment.

  • Keeping an eye on South Carolina

    Here’s a story line you’re not hearing a lot this midterm cycle: Keep an eye on a possible sleeper Democratic candidate in a ruby-red state.

    A new poll from Winthrop Universityshows South Carolina Republican gubernatorial nominee Nikki Haley leading Democrat Vincent Sheheen by nine points. But Sheheen is performing slightly better than Haley among independents, and Haley’s support is comparatively softer, making this a race worth keeping on the political radar in the run up to Election Day.

    “Nine points is a lot, but it is not insurmountable for Sheheen,” said Dr. Scott Huffmon, the director of the Winthrop Poll.

    The key data point in the survey, which shows Haley leading Sheheen 46 percent to 37 percent, considers how sure each candidate’s supporters are about who they will back on Election Day. About 26 percent of Haley supporters said they might change their minds before the election, compared to 18 percent of Sheheen supporters who said their vote wasn’t definite.

    Huffmon believes that most “soft” Haley supporters – who are overwhelmingly Republican – will eventually support the GOP candidate in the race. But, he said, the numbers indicate that voters may have lingering doubts about her as a candidate, regardless of her party affiliation.

    “Six months ago, if you’d run generic numbers – for a generic Democrat and a generic Republican – there would have been a much larger spread in this race,” Huffmon said. “The fact that it’s in single digits now means that this race is a lot closer than people thought.”

    The results of the poll come as a political blogger’s unsubstantiated charges of an affair with Haley are popping up again in press reports. Will Folks, who alleges that he had a romantic relationship with Haley, submitted an affidavit to a newly founded anti-Haley group called Conservatives for Truth in Politics detailing what he called “romantic encounters” with the state representative prior to 2007. No demonstrable proof of the truth of his allegations -- or of separate charges by lobbyist Larry Marchant, who claims he had a one night stand with Haley -- have been presented.

    Another tidbit from Winthrop, by the way: Democratic Senate nominee Alvin Greene, who made national headlines after his fluky victory in the Democratic primary in June, is polling below the state’s Green Party candidate, Tom Clements. The two candidates are both mired in the low double digits, almost 50 points behind incumbent Republican Sen. Jim DeMint.

    The telephone survey of 741 likely voters was conducted between Oct. 5 and Oct. 10. The margin of error is 3.6 percent.

  • First Thoughts: In search of a game-changer

    Whitman gets aggressive in combative CA GOV debate. Brown played defense on W word, but didn’t appear to be a game-changer … McMahon-Blumenthal give Nevada run for its money as nastiest race this cycle. … Sharron Angle’s whopping $14 million. … Delaware, Arkansas debates tonight… Bill Clinton, Michelle Obama hit the trail. … More Democratic House candidate run from Pelosi … Rand Paul’s latest college daze story. … More Paladino gay problems … Spotlight on WV-3.


    *** Brown vs. Whitman: Without a doubt, last night's final Jerry Brown-vs.-Meg Whitman debate at Dominican University in San Rafael, CA, was the most combative, free-wheeling one of the race. Whitman was as aggressive as we've seen, hitting Brown for being soft on crime, for being beholden to special interests, and for being the "same old, same old." That aggression, though, shouldn't have come as a surprise given that recent polls have shown she’s trailing. Brown had his moments, too, asking Whitman how much she’d personally save from cutting the state’s capital-gain taxes (which she didn’t answer) and deflecting the “whore” controversy by pointing out that her campaign chairman (former Gov. Pete Wilson) had once called Congress “whores.” Brown apologized for an associate calling Whitman that word, but said he couldn’t (or wouldn't?) find out who said it. It was the one moment where Brown looked on the ropes, it was both compelling TV and we're guessing VERY uncomfortable for Brown supporters to watch.

    *** But it wasn’t a game-changer: Overall, however, last night’s debate wasn't a game-changer in a race with three weeks to go. There weren’t any huge gaffes or new revelations; in many ways, it was a good summary by both candidates of the best case each can make to being the most logical next governor of a state in the most precarious position it's been in since joining the Republic. Of course, in a contest that has provided us with one controversy after another in recent weeks (the housekeeper/nanny story, then the “whore” kerfuffle), we’re bound to see a potential game-changer or two down the stretch, though the closer election day gets, the harder it is for last minute revelations to take hold. One last point about the debate: While Whitman was tough and aggressive last night -- watching her in action reminded one of us of Hillary Clinton, circa spring of ’08 -- Brown was the more optimistic of the two. When moderator Tom Brokaw asked the candidates to ask Californians what THEY could do to help fix the state’s problems, it was Brown who reminded the audience that California -- despite its budget woes -- is a “great state with tremendous potential.” He said, “I love California.”

    *** Tuesday Night Raw: There was another debate across the country, in the Connecticut Senate race, which the Hartford Courant described as a “character battle.” NBC’s Kelly O’Donnell noted on TODAY that there were hisses and boos from the audience and the moderator had to step in and ask the crowd to settle down. Democrat Richard Blumenthal: “[Y]ou have built your fortune, putting profits first." Republican Linda McMahon: "You do have a credibility issue. The people of Connecticut know you, but what they know now is you have great difficulty in always telling the truth." Blumenthal criticized McMahon’s stewardship of WWE: “ ‘My opponent has not only marketed sex and violence to children, she has paid hundreds of millions of dollars’ to hire lobbyists to stave off regulations aimed at professional wrestling,” the Courant writes. He also hit her on steroids. McMahon conceded that WWE has on occasion “pushed the envelope,” but insisted, "It's insulting to the millions of people who watch WWE every week ... to suggest that somehow it is less than quality entertainment.” It was Blumenthal and McMahon’s third debate in eight days, and wow, did this one get nasty. Every low blow was delivered. Every time we think it's settled about which race is the nastiest (Nevada, we're looking at you), Connecticut makes a run for the lead.

    *** More debates to watch: Tonight will bring us even more debates. In Delaware, Christine O’Donnell will face off against Chris Coons. (By the way, a new Monmouth University poll shows Coons with an almost 20-point lead.) And in Arkansas, it’s trailing incumbent Blanche Lincoln versus Rep. John Boozman. Bill Clinton will campaign with Lincoln, hoping to help her change the dynamics of that race.

    *** Running from Pelosi: Republicans have tried to make House Speaker Nancy Pelosi the bogey-man in swing districts. It didn’t work in the PA-12 special, but in the past day, there were examples of three more House Democratic candidates running from Pelosi. Rep. Bobby Bright went up with an ad saying he wouldn’t vote for Pelosi for speaker if Democrats retain a majority in Congress; Roy Herron, who’s running for the open TN-8 seat is alleging that the DCCC pulled money from his district because “I will not vote for Nancy Pelosi for House Speaker;” Bill Owens went up with an ad in NY-23 saying he voted with Boehner 63% of the time; Rep. Peter DeFazio has said he favored replacing Pelosi as speaker. In fairness to Pelosi, she has said it’s fine if Democrats run against her as long as they win. By the way, if you doubted the enthusiasm there was for ousting Harry Reid and Pelosi, all you have to do is look at the astounding $14 million Sharron Angle raised in the third quarter. The money to Angle was not about her but more about HIM -- Reid. Even Angle's spokesperson admitted as much. Normally Congressional leaders aren't the national protagonists in a midterm, but it's becoming clearer that Pelosi-Reid and NOT Obama is truly what's driving a lot of the venom on the trail. Since Angle is running aginst Reid that national venom is finding its way into her coffers via the Internet.

    *** First lady hits the trail: Meanwhile, First Lady Michelle Obama today heads to Wisconsin, where she helps raise money for vulnerable Sen. Russ Feingold and to her hometown of Chicago, where she attends a fundraiser for Alexi Giannoulias.

    *** 75 House races to watch: WV-3: The Democratic nominee is 17-term incumbent Rep. Nick Rahall, who was first elected in 1976. His GOP opponent is former state Supreme Court judge Elliot “Spike” Maynard. In 2008, McCain captured 56% of the vote in this district – which is located in the southern third of the state – while Bush won 53% in ’04. As of June 30, Rahall had more than $1.5 million in the bank, versus Maynard’s $115,000. Rahall voted for the stimulus and health care but against cap-and-trade. Cook rates the race as “Lean Democrat”; Rothenberg doesn’t have it rated.

    *** More midterm news: Republicans lead in eight of 10 open House seats, according a The Hill poll. … Rand Paul in college apparently was involved with a group that sent out a newsletter with anti-Christian overtones. … Carl Paladino’s gay nephew, also a campaign staffer, is upset with his uncle over his gay remarks and hasn’t shown up to work. Plus, Paladino cashed rent checks from gay clubs, including one run by his son. … And will Martha Coakley pull a Martha Coakley?

    Countdown to Election Day 2010: 20 days

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  • Obama agenda: Softening support?

    “Three weeks ahead of the crucial midterm elections, a stunning 43 percent of likely voters who backed President Obama in 2008 say now that they don't support him as much as they did or don't support him at all, according to a Bloomberg LP poll released yesterday,” the New York Post writes. “ ‘Of that group, 19 percent say they support Obama, ‘but not as much as before,’ and another 17 percent say there are some days they support him and ‘some days I don't.’ About 7 percent say they no longer support Obama or now oppose him.”

    “On Tuesday night, Obama took his youth tour a step further, fielding the first presidential question via the Internet-calling service Skype,” the Washington Post reports of Obama’s town hall at George Washington University. But if the technology was exciting, the Post continues, some of the softball questions were not.

  • The midterms: Shaky ground.

    The Hill polls 10 open House districts. The GOP leads in eight.

    ALABAMA: “The first House Democrat to publicly say that he would oppose Nancy Pelosi for Speaker in the next Congress is now running a campaign ad touting his position,” Roll Call writes. “In a new 30-second television spot, Rep. Bobby Bright (Ala.) pledges to vote ‘for the person who will allow [him] to best represent [his] constituents,’ as a Friday Associated Press headline that reads ‘Bobby Bright Won’t Vote for Pelosi’ flashes across the screen.”

    CALIFORNIA: “In a blistering final debate, Democratic candidate for governor Jerry Brown apologized to his Republican counterpart Meg Whitman on Tuesday for a slur directed at her by an associate, an apology that Whitman did not explicitly accept as she cast his campaign as insulting to all Californians,” the Los Angeles Times writes.

    CONNECTICUT: “Tuesday night's debate between U.S. Senate candidates Richard Blumenthal and Linda McMahon began with a public policy discussion about jobs and the economy but turned into a barbed exchange over character,” the Hartford Courant writes.

    DELAWARE: A Monmouth University poll shows Chris Coons leading Christine O’Donnell by almost 20 points – 57%-38%. “It gets worse for O’Donnell,” Roll Call notes, “Only 35 percent of those surveyed believe she is qualified to serve in the Senate, while 64 percent believe that Coons is qualified.”


    FLORIDA: “Republican Rick Scott clings to a single percentage point lead over Democrat Alex Sink, 45-44, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll released Tuesday,” the Miami Herald reports.

    KENTUCKY: Politico writes about a revelation that the NoZe Brotherhood, the secret society that Rand Paul was a part of in college, wrote a newsletter that “often had a specifically anti-Christian tone, as it made fun of the Baptist college's faith-based orientation.”

    MASSACHUSETTS: Can Martha Coakley pull a Martha Coakley and lose… again? The Boston Globe looks at whether her opponent (for state Attorney General) is catching on.

    NEW HAMPSHIRE: Democratic Senate candidate Paul Hodes “is seizing on an e-mail exchange between [opponent Kelly] Ayotte and her political adviser Rob Varsalone four years ago that he says shows their politicization of a murder case as they discussed her Senate ambitions,” Politico reports.

    Roll Call wraps a NH-1 debate: “With just 21 days to rescue a political career teetering on the brink, Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) took the fight to Republican challenger Frank Guinta on Tuesday afternoon, repeatedly lashing out at the former Manchester mayor during a debate that was intense throughout and nasty at times. At the end of the hour, the two-term incumbent had asked far more questions of Guinta than the moderator in a matchup that wasn’t supposed to include direct interaction between the candidates.”

    NEW JERSEY: “A coalition of tea party activists on Monday called for a campaign aide for Delaware Democratic Senate candidate Chris Coons to either resign or be fired for his role in an alleged plot by some Democrats to plant a fake tea party candidate in a New Jersey congressional race,” the AP writes. “In an article published last week, the Courier-Post of Cherry Hill, N.J. reported that [Marshall] Spevak, a Democratic operative who worked on U.S. Rep. John Adler's 2008 congressional campaign, signed and helped circulate a petition this year to get Peter DeStefano on the ballot in New Jersey's 3rd District congressional race representing the New Jersey Tea Party.”

    NEW YORK: “Carl Paladino's openly gay nephew -- whom the candidate points to as proof he's no homophobe -- said yesterday he was "very offended" by his uncle's anti-gay rants. Jeff Hannon, 23, a staffer for the Paladino campaign, also hasn't shown up at work since the bomb-throwing GOP gubernatorial hopeful made his caustic comments about homosexuality, one of Hannon's co-workers told The Post. In a brief phone interview yesterday, Hannon, in his first public remarks on the incident, told The Post, ‘Obviously, I'm very offended by his comments.’”

    “Carl Paladino says kids shouldn't be ‘brainwashed’ into thinking it's okay to be gay or be taken to a ‘disgusting’ gay pride parade,” the New York Daily News reports. But he had no problem when his son, William, ran Cobalt, a nightclub once dubbed Buffalo's ‘gay club of the moment.’ And he had no problem cashing the rent checks from Cobalt and another gay club called Buddies II, both of which were located for years in buildings he owned.”

    “Shortly after [gubernatorial nominee Carl Paladino’s] apology was released, Mr. Paladino’s campaign manager, Michael R. Caputo, prompted another flare-up by saying Mr. Cuomo was ‘a very experienced, very polished, very smooth, very oily kind of career politician,’” the New York Times writes. “Asked for Mr. Cuomo’s response to being referred to by Mr. Caputo as “oily,” Marissa Shorenstein, a campaign spokeswoman said, ‘He doesn’t merit a response.’”

    TENNESSEE: “State Sen. Roy Herron (D), who's running for the opening seat held by retiring Rep. John Tanner (D) in Tennessee's 8th congressional district, suggested the DCCC's decision to cancel ad buys in the race was tied to his refusal to back Pelosi,” The Hill writes.

    TEXAS: The Fort Worth Star-Telegram endorses Rep. Chet Edwards for re-election in Texas’ 17th district.

  • Paladino apologizes (somewhat) for gay remarks

    Carl Paladino's campaign just sent out an something of an apology for his recent comments.

    It might be one of the weirder apologies ever: (By the way, he misspells President Barack Obama's name.)

    I am Carl Paladino, a father, a husband, a builder and a business owner. I am neither perfect, nor a career politician. I have made mistakes in this campaign - I have made mistakes all my life- as we all have. I am what I am - a simple man who works hard, trusts others, and loves his family and fears for the future of our State.

    Yesterday I was handed a script. I redacted some contents that were unacceptable. I did also say some things for which I should have chosen better words. I said other things that the press misinterpreted and misstated. I sincerely apologize for any comment that may have offended the Gay and Lesbian Community or their family members. Any reference to branding an entire community based on a small representation of them is wrong. My personal beliefs are:
    1) I am a live and let live person.

    2) I am 100% against discrimination of any group. I oppose discrimination of any kind in housing, credit, insurance benefits or visitation.

    3) I am 100% against hate crimes in any form.

    4) I am in support of civil agreements and equal rights for all citizens.

    5) My position on marriage is based on my personal views. I have the same position on this issue as President Barrack Obama. I have previously stated I would support a referendum by New York voters. I have proposed Initiative and Referendum so New Yorkers can decide important issues like this.

    6) The portrayal of me as anti-gay is inconsistent with my lifelong beliefs and actions and my prior history as an father, employer and friend to many in the gay and lesbian community.

    I am concerned with the future for all our citizens, gay, straight, Catholic, Protestant, Jewish and Muslim and Agnostic. Although I am not perfect I do admit my mistakes. I will reach out to leaders of the gay community to educate me on how to better represent my support for the rights of all citizens. If elected as your governor I will stand and fight for all gay New Yorkers rights. I ask you for forgiveness on my poorly chosen words and the publication by others not involved with our campaign of unredacted script that did not reflect my oral statement or match my personal feelings. Please go to my website www.paladinoforthepeople.com to learn more detail about the issues including my staunch support for civil rights for all New Yorkers.

  • Clooney presses Obama on Sudan


    "Turn the lights on" to expose the actions of the Sudanese government, actor and activist George Clooney told reporters after meeting with President Obama on Tuesday.

    Clooney visited the White House with human rights activist John Prendergast, who co-founded the Enough Project, to push the administration to ramp up diplomatic efforts to avoid another war in the troubled African country just five years after a peace agreement ended the last decades-long conflict.

    The fear is that a planned Jan. 9, 2011 referendum on independence for the mostly black, Christian southern part of Sudan could provoke a new North-South conflict, due, in part, to a dispute over the oil-rich Abyei region in the south. Northern Sudan -- where the capital Khartoum is located -- is mostly Arab and Muslim. The leader of the South has reportedly stated that officials in the North are intentionally delaying preparations for the vote and said the region would go ahead with the referendum as scheduled.


    "Right now, at this moment, there's an opportunity here to negotiate a peace treaty," Clooney said, allowing that it would be "complicated" and "difficult."

    Clooney said he was impressed with how involved the Obama administration had been in Sudan "at the highest levels" and that it was important to act before it's too late, even suggesting that Google Earth use its satellite to put up live images confirming reports of government tanks and helicopters lining up on the border near Abyei.

    "I think any time there is a danger of people being killed, we're too slow," Clooney said. "I think that no one would disagree with that. I don't think the UN would disagree with that."

    He went on to say that he believed the Obama administration would like to be further down the line in negotiations.

    "The difference is we were late in the Congo; we were late in El Salvador; we were late in Darfur; we were late in Rwanda. We've been late," he said. "The hope is that we can be there this time before and not have to just mop up the mess afterwards."

    Clooney called on the international community to keep the pressure on the Sudanese government and on its President Omar Hassan Ahmed Bashir, who has been charged with genocide by the International Criminal Court, by continuing negotiations with the government and by offering carrots and some "pretty prickly sticks" including increased sanctions. He also said the United Nations needed a stronger mandate to act in the region.

    Prendergrast said Obama had "evinced a very clear and deep knowledge about the details of the negotiations going on" in the Sudan and pledged that the administration would "do all it can."

    Clooney, who was on his way to another meeting with Sen. Dick Lugar (R-IN), also visited Obama in February of 2009, early in his presidency, to ask the White House to appoint a special full-time envoy to Sudan. The White House appointed Gen. Scott Gration to the role, and Clooney said Tuesday that while he had faith in Gration's leadership, but that the general needed more support from the international community to be effective.

  • The first lady hits the stump

    The more popular half of the White House’s first couple is hitting the campaign trail.

    Michelle Obama, who has largely avoided political events this midterm cycle, is slated to hold rallies and fundraisers for Democratic Senate candidates in seven states over the next two weeks, including stops in Illinois, Colorado, and Wisconsin.

    Obama campaigned extensively for her husband during the 2008 presidential race, although her individual appearances were generally low-key, featuring intimate roundtable events and discussions about specific policy issues like support for military families. The upcoming tour of midterm battleground states -- Illinois, Colorado, Wisconsin, New York, Washington, Connecticut, and California -- will be her most extensive foray into campaign politics for more than two years.

    The first lady remains much more popular than her husband nationwide. An NBC/WSJ poll in August showed less than one in five respondents saying they have a negative view of Mrs. Obama.

    She is particularly popular with women, African Americans and other core Democratic voters – constituencies that could be crucial in tight Senate races nationwide. According to the NBC/WSJ poll, 57 percent of female respondents have a positive impression of Michelle Obama, compared to just 43 percent of men. Comparatively, just 48 percent of women view Barack Obama in a positive light.

    Michelle Obama also performs better than her husband now with suburban voters and retirees.

    But a downside for Obama could be that her fans – not unlike 2008 Obama voters as a whole – simply aren’t all that motivated to vote in November. Almost 60 percent of Michelle Obama supporters expressed relatively low interest in the midterm elections when they were surveyed in August.

    Democrats are hoping that the first lady can turn those numbers around.

    On Wednesday, Mrs. Obama will appear on behalf of Democratic Senate candidate Alexi Giannoulias, who is vying to win the seat that the first lady’s husband occupied for four years. Giannoulias was bullish on Sunday about the energy that the first lady’s upcoming appearance in her own home state could inject into the race, telling reporters that his campaign office had been flooded with calls from supporters since the news of her visit was announced.

    Giannoulias trailed GOP Rep. Mark Kirk by just one point in a Suffolk University poll earlier this month. In that poll, women favored Giannoulias by about 43 percent to 36 percent, with about 12 percent undecided.

    Pam Monetti, the co-president of a group called Illinois Democratic Women, said that the first lady’s visit will help to elevate Giannoulias’s stance on women’s issues as well as economic policies that would help struggling families.

    “She’s a mom,” said Monetti. “A lot of women voters see that she faces the same things that we face.”

    On Thursday, the first lady will appear in Denver, Colorado, at an event for incumbent Democrat Michael Bennet. Bennet is in a difficult race against Tea Party-backed candidate Ken Buck, who defeated establishment GOP favorite Lt. Gov. Jane Norton in the Aug. 10 primary. The incumbent Democrat himself overcame a tough primary challenge from Colorado House Speaker Andrew Romanoff.

    Bennet has been consistently behind in polling since late summer, although recent automated telephone surveys have shown the race tightening slightly to about a five point margin.

    A former superintendent of Denver public schools, Bennet was mostly unknown in the state when he was appointed to replace Sen. Ken Salazar – who became Obama’s Secretary of the Interior – in 2009. In ads, Buck has portrayed Bennet as a “rubber stamp for his friends in Washington.”

    Democrats hope that Obama’s appearance could serve to inject some publicity into the campaign just a few days after early voting began in the state. “Our mail-in ballots dropped today, and this starts our get out the vote effort,” said Pat Waak, the chair of the Colorado Democratic Party. “Having Michelle come into a state where she’s extremely popular will energize voters to get them to fill out their ballots.”

    Waak says that female voters in the state are particularly wary of Buck’s policy proposals. “They are very concerned about health care reform, which [Buck] wants to repeal,” she said. “They’re looking for very specific economic policies – Buck doesn’t have any.”

    But the presence of any national Democratic surrogate could be risky in a state where the president’s approval rating among likely voters was just 39 percent in a McClatchy/Marist poll last month.

    Professor Kenneth Bickers, who heads the political science department at the University of Colorado at Boulder, says that the presence of any figure associated with unpopular Washington D.C. could backfire for the Democratic candidate.

    “Bennet has been trying to not nationalize the Senate race,” Bickers said, noting that the appointed senator has been trying to focus on state-specific issues. “But having Michelle Obama, or the president, or any another national figure out here serves to nationalize the race. To the extent that’s happening, it’s helping Buck, not Bennet.”

  • Hillary talks 2008, political civility

    From NBC's Andrea Mitchell and Courtney Kube
    In the midst of a heated political season back in the U.S., Secretary of State Hillary Clinton spoke about mending political fences during her trip to Sarajevo today.

    "We have someone who could never have been elected in my country just a short while ago," she told a group of students and civil society leaders today, adding, "I ran against him, as you know, I tried to beat him, and he won."

    Clinton said despite their own battle, after President Obama won, "he asked me to work with him."

    "Now in many countries that would still seem like a strange idea -- if you're in a political contest, it should be zero sum game, winner takes all," she said, adding, "but that's not how we see it."

    "I'm often asked how could I go to work for President Obama after trying to defeat him, and the answer is simple: we both love our country," Clinton said. She went on to encourage the group to work to develop that same mindset there in Sarajevo.

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