Obama to propose a freeze in non-security discretionary spending, which affects only a portion of the nation's $3.5 trillion budget… Senate expected to reject an independent commission to reduce the nation's debt… How John McCain no longer seems so bipartisan… House Dem leaders MIGHT be willing to pass Senate health-care bill if Senate makes changes (via reconciliation) first… Rubio now has the lead over Crist in Florida, while Obama's numbers are upside down in the Sunshine State… And could Democrats also lose Obama's old Senate seat?
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** Deep freeze? The latest leak before tomorrow night's State of the Union address is that President Obama will propose freezing non-security discretionary spending over the next three budget years (beginning Oct. 1). This "non-security" freeze means that it will NOT apply to the Defense, Veterans Affairs, Homeland Security, or State departments. In 2010, this non-security discretionary piece of the budget pie amounted to $447 billion. So the president's proposal is to keep this budget piece at the same level (not even adjusted for inflation) for the next three years. If enacted, the administration estimates it will save $250 billion over the next 10 years. Of course, this is just a small slice of the budget pie. As the Washington Post writes, it "would affect only about one-eighth of the nation's $3.5 trillion budget, the bulk of which is devoted to entitlement programs such as Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, which are responsible for much of the future increase in spending." Even if it's mostly symbolic, the White House believes that the country is demanding more fiscal discipline after all of last year's spending to help revive the economy.
*** Epitomizing Washington's political paralysis: But just how hard is it to really cut into the nation's debt? Look no further than today's Senate vote to establish an independent debt commission, which would come up with bipartisan recommendations to reduce the debt. Today's vote isn't expected to get 60 votes because conservatives are worried that the commission's recommendations would include tax increases, while liberals are concerned that there would be cuts in entitlement spending. Well, yeah -- the only way to really reduce the debt (outside of another economic boom like we saw in the late '90s) is to both raise taxes and cut entitlement spending. That Democrats and Republicans can't come together on something like this only adds to the perception that Washington isn't working.Â
*** Mr. Bipartisan? At 12:30 pm, John McCain teams up with Evan Bayh to hold a news conference on the budget deficit. Beyond this event, however, it's pretty remarkable that on the most bipartisan issue Congress has worked on lately -- the re-confirmation of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke -- McCain has decided to sit it out. Yesterday, the man associated with the Gang of 14 effort on judges, bipartisan immigration reform, and McCain-Feingold said he was opposing Bernanke. Also, as the Washington Post's Dana Milbank notes, McCain withdrew his support on the independent debt commission that the Senate votes on today. Of course, there's one big reason why McCain hasn't been as bipartisan as he used to be: the primary challenge he's receiving from J.D. Hayworth. That's probably why he's opposing Bernanke, voting against the debt commission (due to the likelihood of raising taxes), issuing a fairly muted response (by McCain standards) on last week's Supreme Court ruling, and remaining relatively silent on immigration reform. By the way, Hayworth will appear on MSNBC's "Hardball" tonight.
*** Other SOTU odds and ends: In advance of tomorrow's State of the Union address, labor leaders Andy Stern and Anna Burger hold a dialogue this morning on the state of the American worker at the Center for American Progress. Also, House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer is delivering a speech at the National Press Club, where he will discuss the House's agenda for 2010. "So it is crucial for the Senate to work with the House to get a jobs bill to the President's desk as soon as possible," Hoyer is expected to say. "If Republicans continue to stand in the way of Americans going back to work, it is crucial to make them own their record." Finally, the Washington Post has a fantastic story profiling what has happened to the three honored guests of Obama's first address to Congress last year.
*** Returning to health care: Here's the latest news we've picked up on health care: The House leadership believes it can pass the Senate bill IF the changes are made by the Senate via reconciliation. MORE IMPORTANTLY, the House leaders want those changes made FIRST before they pass the Senate health care bill itself. The deadline: before the president's day recess.
*** Rubio takes the lead: In Florida, a new Quinnipiac poll shows Marco Rubio now leading Charlie Crist, 47%-44%, although that's within the margin of error. Back in June, Crist had a 31-point lead over Rubio in poll. And in October, Crist's lead was 15 points. (This begs the question: Outside of Mark Sanford and John Edwards, did any other American politician have a worse 2009 than Charlie Crist?) The survey also shows both Rubio and Crist beating Democrat Kendrick Meek in a hypothetical match up. What's more, the poll shows Obama with a 45%-49% approval/disapproval rating, which isn't good news for the White House in this important battleground state. And it just so happens, Obama will be in Florida this Thursday…
*** Losing Kennedy's seat, Biden's, and Obama's? A week from today, Illinois will hold the first primary of the 2010 midterm season, and it features competitive Dem and GOP contests for Senate and governor. And after Democrats lost Ted Kennedy's seat last week, and appear on their way to losing Joe Biden's, there's the distinct possibility that they might lose Barack Obama's old Senate seat, too. (Symbolically, if Republicans end up winning the president's Senate seat, the vice president's, Harry Reid's, and Ted Kennedy's seat, how is not seen as a symbolic repudiation of the Democratic Party leadership?) One reason is due to candidate recruitment. Six years ago, the Senate Democratic primary featured a strong field including wealthy Blair Hull, the Chicago pol Dan Hynes, and a state senator named Barack Obama. But this year, after the Obama White House failed to get their desired candidate Lisa Madigan, the field consists of State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, Chicago Urban League CEO Cheryle Jackson, and David Hoffman, and all of them have flaws -- Giannoulias has ties to Tony Rezko; Jackson was once Blago's spokeswoman, and Hoffman's name ID remains pretty low. A new Chicago Tribune poll shows Giannoulias leading the Dem field.
*** Lisa Madigan, where are you? A second difficulty is the overall political environment. (Did you know that the state's unemployment rate is 11.1%?) The winner of the Democratic primary will most likely face GOP Rep. Mark Kirk, who actually has a good shot of beating the Dem nominee in this blue state (but who must survive his own crowded primary first). Third, as we mentioned yesterday, Democrats really bungled their Senate appointments in late 2008/early 2009. If Blago had not appointed someone, or if Roland Burris had simply refused the appointment, Democrats could have had a stronger candidate -- a Lisa Madigan or perhaps even a Dan Hynes -- as their current senator… And speaking of Hynes, don't forget about Illinois' gubernatorial primary, where Hynes is challenging incumbent Gov. Pat Quinn. There's the real possibility that Hynes could defeat the incumbent.
*** More midterm news: Staying with the Democratic Senate primary in Illinois, both Hoffman and Giannoulias are engaged in a TV ad war… And in Arkansas, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is denying reports that it wants vulnerable Blanche Lincoln to retire.
Countdown to IL primary: 7 days
Countdown to TX primary: 35 days
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 280 days
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