From NBC's Ali Weinberg
Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), up for re-election this year, is up with two radio ads on his campaign Web site, and he's taking on a familiar foe.

In the ads, McCain, who will probably face a primary challenge from the right, frames his re-election bid as a battle against President Obama, his 2008 presidential foe, and his "extreme left wing crusade to bankrupt America." He also reminds listeners of his prisoner-of-war past, as a voice says, "We know what he endured. Turned down the chance to go home early," in one ad.

The two spots will run on radio stations around the state. According to the Hotline, the McCain campaign just bought ad time on the Arizona station KFYI, on which ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R), a potential McCain challenger, has a daily show.

Ad #1
Voice: He's lived through a battle or two.

Vanquished many a foe.

But perhaps no battle in our lifetime is more vital than the one John McCain fights now.

A battle to save America.

Save our jobs.

John McCain leads the charge to slash government spending.

Bloated bureaucracies.

And ridiculously unaffordable ideas like government run health care.

McCain: President Obama is leading an extreme left wing crusade to bankrupt America. I stand in his way every day. If I get a bruise or two knocking some sense into heads in Washington, so be it.

I'll keep fighting for jobs and economic growth for Arizona as long as I'm in the Senate.

Voice: John McCain is Arizona's last line of defense.

Character. Matters.

McCain: I'm John McCain and I approve this message. Paid for by Friends for John McCain.

Ad #2

Voice: We know what he endured.

Turned down the chance to go home early.

It was against the prisoner's code.

John McCain has spent his life representing Arizona.

Fighting for the little guy.

Standing up to titans.

Afraid of no man.

Saying "yes" to jobs and small business, "no" to big government.

John McCain is leading the fight against President Obama every day.

Standing tall and outspoken.

Helping Arizona families.

McCain: My lot in life has been to wage war against wrong.

Like today's massive spending at the worst possible time.

Send me back to the Senate. We'll win that fight for Arizona.

Voice: John McCain is Arizona's last line of defense.

Character. Matters.

McCain: I'm John McCain and I approve this message. Paid for by Friends for John McCain.

From NBC's Mark Murray
Interior Secretary (and former Colorado Sen.) Ken Salazar has released a statement saying that he is NOT running for Colorado governor and is instead endorsing Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper.

A Democratic source with knowledge about these moves tell First Read that Hickenlooper is going to be the Dems' guy to replace Ritter. "He's fantastic for us -- great executive experience, very popular, good name ID, business-friendly," the source says.

Below is Salazar's release:

Colorado needs a strong, experienced leader with optimism and new ideas for carrying our state forward. That is why I am endorsing John Hickenlooper for Governor of Colorado. John Hickenlooper is a uniter. He transcends political and geographic divides to bring people together to develop solutions. If he decides to run, he will make an excellent Governor for the State of Colorado.

I know John and Helen will seriously consider this historic opportunity that will define the future of State of Colorado and her people. This is a personal decision they must make and I will fully respect that decision.

As for me, I have a job to do as Secretary of the Interior to implement President Obama's vision for a clean energy economy and to better protect America's great outdoors.

From NBC's Chuck Todd and Mark Murray
The White House is pushing back against the New York Daily News report that National Counterterrorism Center Director Michael Leiter did not cut his ski vacation short after the failed Christmas Day terrorist attack, and did not return to the agency's "bat cave" in McLean, VA until several days after Christmas. 

"Director Leiter was -- throughout the events of December 25, 2009 -- indeed at the National Counterterrorism Center in McLean, Virginia, and intimately involved in all aspects of the nation's response to the attempted terrorist attack -- to include coordinating intelligence, examining terrorist watchlisting, and briefing Members of Congress," said Denis McDonough, the White House's national security chief of staff. "During the following days, Director Leiter engaged in regular, repeated, and extended classified discussions with the White House, the President's National Security Staff located in Hawaii, the Director of National Intelligence, the Department of Homeland Security, various members of Congress and their staffs, and of course the National Counterterrorism Center."

McDonough continues, "Only after explicit consultations with both the White House and the Director of National Intelligence and considering the current threat environment did Director Leiter take six days of annual leave after the event, which again did not affect in any way his ability to remain engaged with all elements of the United States Government."

From NBC's Mark Murray
Those who followed politics back in the 1990s will find this a bit shocking. Then again, Bob Barr's politics have changed since becoming a Libertarian.

Barr writes:

Yes — the not-so-bright, would-be terrorist from Nigeria got though international and domestic security mechanisms supposed to have stopped him long before the jerk lit his underwear afire before landing in Detroit. And yes — the incident happened during the administration of President Barack Obama. But the sniping at the president by Republicans, including former Vice President Cheney, and by conservative radio and TV commentators, borders on — if not passing into — asinine.

The criticism has included such childishness as blasting Obama for waiting a few days before making a national speech on the incident. For heaven's sake, the president was briefed on the incident from the moment it occured; he made statements almost immediately indicating his concern and that he was being regularly briefed; he took time to gather the facts and meet with his national security team; and then he appeared publicly to give a rational, measured, but hard-hitting response. And for this, a former vice president criticizes him.

Partisanship truly has pervasively infected our political system when a reasonable, measured, factual, timely and substantive response by a president to a single security incident — the roots of which clearly indicate long-simmering problems that predated his tenure in office — is publicly blasted as irresponsible. In point of fact, those levelling such counterproductive attacks are the ones engaging in irresponsible behavior.

From NBC's Pete Williams
Here's a little more information on the border issue, as reported in today's Los Angeles Times.

Homeland Security officials say U.S. customs and border agents, after performing their regular checks of passenger lists for incoming flights from overseas, would have likely asked Umar Abdulmutallab some additional questions -- beyond the normal immigration process -- if he had simply gotten off his flight when it landed in Detroit on Christmas day, instead of trying to bomb it.

But they say this doesn't change the fact that there was no red flag that would have prevented him from boarding the flight in Amsterdam in the first place.

The officials say Customs and Border Protection prepares for arriving passengers by checking a flight's passenger list against the entire database of half a million names -- the TIDE database, the one that's been widely discussed since the bombing attempt. The note in that database from the State Department, which advised of the concerns of Abdulmutallab's father, would probably have been enough, they say, to subject him to some additional questions if he had simply  presented his passport in Detroit and sought admission to the country.

But the Transportation Security Administration has a different standard for blocking a passenger from boarding a flight at an overseas airport. It checks names against the more restrictive watch and no-fly lists. And as the administration revealed last week, his name was not on those lists.

Double-edged sword on releasing today's report… Don't forget about the GOP's own troubles… Why 2010 might not be 2006 -- yet… Salazar (or Hickenlooper) for CO governor?... Arnold criticizes the health-care legislation… And profiling Specter vs. Sestak.

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** Transparency's pros, cons: Today, the Obama administration is set to publicly release its report on the failed Christmas Day terrorist plot, and President Obama will make remarks about it at 1:00 pm ET. The administration is going to release this report and play up the fact that they are comfortable releasing bad information. In fact, it's the rhetorical opposite of the previous administration. But doing this is always a double-edged sword. On the one hand, candor is what the public says it wants (and what it believes it wasn't getting from the previous administration). On the other hand, the White House is giving its foes material to show that the agencies they are in charge of weren't working properly. The Obama administration believes that, over time, this candor and transparency will win the day and win the trust with the public. We shall see…

*** Shock and awe: Meanwhile, the report comes as National Security Adviser James Jones tells USA Today that Americans will feel "a certain shock" after reading it, and as the Los Angeles Times writes that U.S. officials "learned of the alleged extremist links of the suspect in the Christmas Day jetliner bombing attempt as he was airborne from Amsterdam to Detroit and had decided to question him when he landed." But the administration is pushing back against that article, with one official saying, "All that happened is Customs and Border Protection followed its normal procedures and checks as it prepared for arriving passengers and by doing so they accessed the suspect's TIDE-based record, which is why they were going to ask him a few additional questions… Officials wouldn't have pulled him out for secondary screening or prevented him from flying in Amsterdam because as has been widely reported, Abdulmutallab was not on the selectee, no-fly or even the terror watch list, and that is of course one of the failures the President has so strongly criticized."  and

*** Skating on thin ice: By the way, in the report itself, it's clear the intelligence breakdowns will be given far more blame for the attempted Christmas terror attack than the homeland security side of things. In fact, Jones' "two strikes" comments about both this incident the Ft. Hood shooting indicate the folks running the FBI, DNI, NCTC and CIA are all skating on thin ice. And this Daily News piece probably won't help, either: "The top official in charge of analyzing terror threats did not cut short his ski vacation after the underwear bomber nearly blew up an airliner on Christmas Day, the Daily News has learned. Michael Leiter, director of the National Counterterrorism Center since 2007, decided not to return to his agency's 'bat cave' nerve center in McLean, Va., until several days after Christmas, two U.S. officials said."

*** Don't forget  about the GOP's own troubles: Due to the economy, the partisan fighting, the inevitable difficulties of governing or even Tuesday's Democratic retirements (especially Dorgan's and Ritter's), these last five or six months haven't been kind for Democrats and the Obama Democrats. But here's one important story to keep in mind as we begin to talk about November's midterms: These haven't been kind times for Republicans, either. On the same day we learned about the Dem retirements, the chairman of the Florida Republican Party resigned in large part because he was Charlie Crist's hand-picked guy, underscoring the ideological warfare inside the GOP. What's more, while RNC Chair Michael Steele promotes his book, his RNC has only $8.7 million in the bank (compared with the $23 million it had when he took office, and the $13 million the DNC has). Perhaps most importantly, the GOP brand remains in the dumps, which wasn't the case in 1993-94.

*** 2006 vs. 2010: Yet as Dan Balz writes in today's Washington Post, "The midterm elections are likely to be a referendum on the party in power, even if the public is not wild about the alternative. Democrats should remember the lesson of the 2006 elections, when anger at President George W. Bush and the GOP proved a more powerful motivator for voters than reservations they had about the Democrats' capacity to govern." But to compare 2006 to now might be a little premature. In our Jan. 2006 NBC/WSJ poll, Dems held a nine-point advantage on the generic ballot; in our most recent poll, Dems STILL have the advantage, albeit it's now two points. Also in our Jan. 2006 poll, Dems had a net-positive fav/unfav; Republicans, meanwhile, haven't been in positive territory since early 2005 (!!!). In short, Republicans -- at least as of now -- aren't in as good of shape as Democrats were at this point in '06.

*** The Great Conundrum: Indeed, the great conundrum of this cycle might be this: How short will the American public's memory be of the Republican leadership from the last decade? The GOP's negative ratings are still higher than the Dem party. Will this drive DOWN turnout among the middle of electorate, giving the GOP a shot at doing well in 2010 in a turnout election? It's one of the many wild cards of this cycle, which make predicting it very difficult.

*** Has the Senate map really changed? In the aftermath of the Democratic retirements, it's also important to emphasize that the overall Senate map hasn't changed. Yes, Republicans now have an excellent pick-up opportunity in North Dakota, but their chances in Connecticut have greatly diminished with Dodd's retirement and Blumenthal's entry. So you're essentially trading North Dakota for Connecticut. Still, Republicans have many more pieces on the chessboard than they did early this year. As we wrote yesterday, Republicans have good pick-up opportunities in at least eight states if you're counting Connecticut and seven if you're not. And remember: Competitive senate races rarely split, say 55%-45%, between the two parties on Election Day. It's amazing how all the close races break in the same direction. Check out the competitive races from the last five cycles. It's a remarkable pattern.

*** Salazar for Colorado governor? The Denver Post has this scoop: "The White House would not object if Interior Secretary Ken Salazar chose to resign his cabinet post and run for Colorado governor… According to sources with knowledge of the conversations, Salazar was encouraged by the White House to remain in the administration, citing an agenda on climate change and retooling energy policy. But administration officials said they would support him if he felt it was in the best interests of the party and the state to return to Colorado." However, more folks in DC seem to prefer Hickenlooper over Salazar. The good news for Dems is that it appears Hickenlooper won't primary Salazar, or vice versa. By the way, the Dorgan dropout means there are lots of calls going out making sure some wavering Dems stay in key 2010 races either as challengers or incumbents. That's the biggest worry after the Dorgan fallout -- that a BIG recruit or ANOTHER incumbent decides, "See ya."

*** Time to end those rumors of Arnold joining the administration? California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's shot at health care during his state of the state address yesterday deserves some attention. While it something he and other governors have said before, that's a bad ally to for the White House to lose. Of course, this is all about Arnold's efforts to get a potential federal bailout of his own later this year, which may be inevitable considering the state's budget problems. Schwarzenegger will be on "Meet the Press" on Sunday.

*** Specter vs. Sestak: As we've noted, the top primaries to watch this year are largely on the Republican side -- Perry vs. Hutchison in Texas, Crist vs. Rubio in Florida, McCain vs. Hayworth (?) in Arizona, Bennett vs. Lee (?) in Utah. Yet the best primary on the Democratic side is Specter vs. Sestak in Pennsylvania. Specter stunned Washington back in April, when the longtime Republican, seeing the writing on the wall, decided to switch parties. It automatically made him the statewide favorite. But Specter, endorsed by the White House, first has to get through his primary with former admiral and first-term congressman Joe Sestak. Sestak is the underdog: He started as much as 30 points down to Specter, but he got a hand up from liberal interest groups and blogs, who threatened to work hard against Specter if he didn't vote like a progressive. (Yet Specter has been a reliable Dem vote since switching parties.) Polls have closed somewhat, but a Dec. Quinnipiac poll had Specter up by 23 points (53%-30%). The biggest story in Pennsylvania? The fact that Pat Toomey (R) looks stronger than he ever did before. The same Q-poll showed Specter and Toomey tied at 44% each.

*** Other midterm news: In Massachusetts' upcoming special Senate election, Vicki Kennedy, Joe Kennedy II, and Paul Kirk are set to endorse Democratic nominee Martha Coakley at 10:00 am ET, while Coakley has gone up with her first TV ad of the (short) general election… Per NBC's Dax Tejera, Ned Lamont told liberal radio host Alan Colmes that he's definitely running for Connecticut governor… And the Cook Political Report's Jennifer Duffy calls Harry Reid the most endangered Senate incumbent now that Dodd is retiring.

Countdown to MA Special Election: 12 days
Countdown to IL primary: 26 days
Countdown to TX primary: 54 days
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 299 days

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"White House national security adviser James Jones says Americans will feel 'a certain shock' when they read an account being released Thursday of the missed clues that could have prevented the alleged Christmas Day bomber from ever boarding the plane," USA Today writes. "'That's two strikes,' Obama's top White House aide on defense and foreign policy issues said, referring to the foiled bombing of the Detroit-bound airliner and the shooting rampage at Fort Hood, Texas, in November. In that case, too, officials failed to act when red flags were raised about an Army psychiatrist, Maj. Nidal Hasan. He has been charged with killing 13 people. Jones said Obama 'certainly doesn't want that third strike, and neither does anybody else.'"

Meanwhile, "The top official in charge of analyzing terror threats did not cut short his ski vacation after the underwear bomber nearly blew up an airliner on Christmas Day, the Daily News has learned. Michael Leiter, director of the National Counterterrorism Center since 2007, decided not to return to his agency's 'bat cave' nerve center in McLean, Va., until several days after Christmas, two U.S. officials said." 
 
The Daily News' cover is a picture of Leiter at a Congressional hearing with the headline: "Ski bum!"

"One in five terror suspects released from the Guantanamo Bay prison has returned to the fight, according to a classified Pentagon report expected to stoke an already fierce debate over President Barack Obama's plan to close the military prison," the AP writes. "Human rights activists who want the prison closed dispute the numbers, saying they "are nearly impossible to verify independently."
 
And: "Although Obama said Tuesday that he still wants to close the detention facility, Defense Department press secretary Geoff Morrell suggested Wednesday that such plans were on hold. Congress has put severe limits on the endeavor. 'We are right now left without either the money or the authority to move detainees from Guantanamo Bay,' Morrell said."

If at first you don't succeed... "The Obama administration is gearing up for a fresh attempt to relaunch stalled Israeli-Palestinian peace talks after the effort hit a dead end last year. In a flurry of meetings in Washington and in European capitals this week and next, senior administration officials will explore new approaches to bringing the two sides together. The new tack would include preparing letters for Israeli and Palestinian leaders that would lay out the endgame and guarantee U.S. support for a negotiated end to the conflict." http://bit.ly/89ZtcG

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi says the House and Senate are close to reconciling the two chambers' versions of health-care bills, and that a vote is "possible" in January. 
 
"The Associated Press reported Wednesday evening that President Barack Obama told House Democratic leaders they'd have to drop opposition to taxing high-end 'Cadillac' health insurance plans to pay for those without coverage."

The New York Times adds, "The White House has long expressed a preference for the excise tax on high-cost plans, which health economists say could be an important tool in controlling long-term health care spending for the government and for individuals and families. But House Democrats have resisted the idea, which is also strongly opposed by many organized labor groups — an important part of the party's base — because the tax may hit a number of more generous union-sponsored health plans." 
 
Sen. Tim Johnson would be in line to replace Dodd as Banking chairman and Sen. Maria Cantwell would be at Indian Affairs.

The New York Times: "The sudden decision by two senior Democratic senators to retire shook the party's leaders on Wednesday and signaled that President Obama is facing a perilous political environment that could hold major implications for this year's midterm elections and his own agenda."

Politico: The recent retirements of two veteran Democratic senators and the decision by two Democratic gubernatorial candidates to drop their bids could prompt more in the party to head for the exits and further frighten already skittish donors and activists. But it doesn't yet appear that the party's congressional majorities are threatened.

The Washington Post's Dan Balz: "In some Democratic circles, including at the White House, there is hope that by fall, the political landscape may look less forbidding. That hope is based on two assumptions: that the economic outlook will be brighter, and that health-care changes will prove more popular with the public after the legislation's expected passage than they have during the long congressional debate. Some Democrats also note that Republicans have done little to improve their popularity among voters." 
 
The AP's second-day analysis on Tuesday's Democratic news: "Combined, the no-campaign decisions highlighted the challenges facing Obama's party. The Democrats are seeking to hang onto comfortable majorities in Congress and a slim edge among governors in a year when voters are angry at lawmakers of all political stripes and likely to punish the party in power. The bottom line for Obama: Losing even one seat in the Senate would make it more difficult to block Republican filibusters. And if the GOP makes big gains in the House -- a pickup of 30 or more seats is seeming ever more likely -- that will make it much harder to pass administration proposals."

"Fewer than half of U.S. adults identified as Democrats in 2009, the first time the number has dipped below that threshold since 2005," The Hill writes. "Forty-nine percent of adults said they were Democrats or leaned Democratic while 40.7 percent of adults polled said they were Republican or leaned Republican. By comparison, 51.5 percent of adults identified as Democratic in 2008 while 39.8 percent said they were Republican. The numbers are an aggregation of Gallup polls on the question from last year and were released Wednesday."

ALABAMA: National Journal's John Mercurio has a piece on his top 10 biggest unknown candidates who will have a "decisive impact on the year in politics." First on his alphabetical-by-state list is Rep. Artur Davis (D), who is running for governor and faces a "tough" June primary challenge against Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks (D). Davis is also African American. "Two years after a black man won the White House while carrying Southern states like Virginia and North Carolina, Democrats are closely watching Davis' campaign and asking: Will voters in the Deep South elect a moderate African American? If Davis wins, look for a spike in African-American candidates around the country in 2012."

COLORADO: The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee hit Jane Norton, who is campaigning for the Republican nomination against Democratic incumbent Sen. Michael Bennet, saying she "has made her tea party ideology increasingly clear over the past few weeks." They cited a statement she made at a Monday campaign stop, when asked about trying failed terrorist Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab as a criminal, rather than in a military tribunal. "The rights of terrorists are more important in this administration that the lives of American citizens," she said. The DSCC calls Norton's words "as fringy as it gets."

CONNECTICUT: With Dodd stepping aside at the end of his term, the Boston Globe profiles Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, the presumptive front-runner for the Democratic nomination. Blumenthal announced his entry into the field two hours after Dodd's news conference yesterday. "Analysts said Blumenthal would help the Democrats hold onto a seat that has been in the party for 47 years," the Globe writes. 
 
About Blumenthal: "A graduate of Harvard College and Yale Law School, where he was editor of the Yale Law Journal, Blumenthal previously served in the Connecticut House and Senate. As attorney general, he has pursued cases against Microsoft, tobacco companies, insurers, and credit card firms. In a Quinnipiac University poll in November, 78 percent of residents said they approved of the way Blumenthal has handled his job." He faces a primary against a software executive. On the other side, Republicans have former Rep. Rob Simmons (who's also a former CIA officer), who was ousted from Congress in the 2006 wave or the wealthy Linda McMahon, wife of wrestling mogul Vince McMahon.

Yes, that's the sound of liberals' heads exploding (again): Joe "Lieberman's endorsement is up for grabs in the 2010 Connecticut Senate race. As an independent with supporters in the Democratic and Republican parties, Lieberman's support could prove crucial in this year's general election." So where's Blumenthal stand? "While Blumenthal endorsed Lamont in 2006, he kept the Democratic primary winner at arm's distance and made clear his continued affection for Lieberman. Blumenthal had supported Lieberman in the Democratic primary."

KENTUCKY: Republican Senate candidate Rand Paul got the endorsement of the pro-gun rights group Gun Owners of America, the AP reports.

MASSACHUSETTS: Sen. Ted Kennedy's widow, Vicky, as well as Kennedy's nephew Joseph and current Sen.Paul G. Kirk, not surprisingly will endorse Democratic Senate nominee Martha Coakley. And Coakley is out with her first general election campaign ad, highlighting her record as attorney general. 

NEW YORK: "Allies of Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand had a harsh message for a former Tennessee congressman-turned-Wall Street bigwig: Don't even think about challenging her, carpetbagger! ... 'Unfortunately, Harold Ford's beliefs are way more 'Tennessee' -- where he ran for U.S. Senate the first time -- than New York,' Judith Hope, a Gillibrand supporter and former state Democratic Party chair, told the Daily News."

NORTH DAKOTA: In an interview with MSNBC's Ed Schultz last night, Byron Dorgan said the time was right for him to retire. "I'd rather have them ask the question why did he leave so soon rather than why did he stay so long."

Schultz also asked departing Sen. Byron Dorgan if he would be open to an appointment to President Obama's cabinet if such an opportunity became available. "Well sure, what, do I look like I'm slow witted?" he said. "If the president called and said would you serve in my cabinet, of course I would consider it."

From NBC's Ali Weinberg
While some on both the liberal and conservative sides of the blogosphere are extracting what they interpret as good news from yesterday's three Democratic retirements, others are using the news as a sign to double efforts in supporting their favored candidates.

Posting at National Review Online, CNBC's Larry Kudlow lists the factors that he believes will propel Senate Republican hopeful Linda McMahon to Sen. Chris Dodd's open seat: Ideology and cash. "If Linda McMahon runs a tea-party/free-market/populist/no-bailout/cut-taxes-and-spending/tough-on-terrorism/pro-Gitmo campaign she can win. She has the dough."

But Red State's Martin Knight takes a more reserved approach, writing, "We should not make the mistake of thinking the ND seat as good as won because [Byron] Dorgan quit, or the CT seat as good as out of reach (as many are suggesting) because we no longer have Chris Dodd to run against.

No seat is out of reach for any party, or any candidate - a Democrat, someone you've never heard of, can still win the ND seat and hold it for the Democrats; Dorgan has been on that seat since the 80s and ND's all Democrat Congressional delegation shows that ND voters are perfectly capable of reflexively sending a Democrat back to replace Dorgan in the Senate. So we really should stop crowing as if it's a done deal."

GOP12 blogger Christian Heinze pulls his favorite lines from the New York Times' Mark Leibovich's column on the feud between Republicans Charlie Crist and Marco Rubio in Florida. One conclusion? Both Crist and ousted state GOP chairman Jim Greer practice "disappointing pander to those who douse their speeches with the phrase 'common sense,' – a phrase lately associated with the Tea Party movement – treating it as though it were a clear philosophy," excerpting quotes from Crist and Greer lamenting the lack of 'common sense' politics in Washington.

The Huffington Post's Sam Stein posts about an interview with Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee chairman Robert Menendez (D-NJ). The senator "pushed back hard on the idea that Democratic senators were dropping like flies," Stein writes, observing a "notable lack of panic" among Democratic political strategists. "The calmness on Menendez's part was owed, [Menendez] said, to the structural and messaging problems currently plaguing Republicans," Stein writes.

Reflecting the sentiment of many liberal bloggers, Americablog's Joe Sudbay is sanguine about Sen. Dodd's swan song: "The Republicans have already started attacking Blumenthal, but he's got a solid record in Connecticut." And time to break out the popcorn for the Repubican primary: "The GOPers now have to worry about the knock-down battle underway for their party's nomination between former Congressman Rob Simmons and the former CEO of the World Wrestling Entertainment Linda McMahon. The primary in Connecticut is on August 10th, so that could end up being fun to watch."

Writing at Purple Texas, progressive blogger Bob Moser rhapsodizes on Democrats' newfound chances in the gubernatorial race. "Just two months ago, Democrats hadn't the slightest clue about what to expect—aside from yet another year of near-certain futility…But lo, unto the Dems a savior appeared: wildly popular Houston Mayor Bill White, who switched from gunning for [Sen. Kay Bailey] Hutchison's fictionally available Senate seat and gave his party a reason for optimism that's anything but fictional. And over the next six weeks, the Democratic blanks began to be filled in down the ballot." Moser writes that the best news for Texas Dems may be that their primaries "might create a few fireworks and stir some interest without tearing the party apart," much like the Republican primary between Governor Rick Perry and Hutchison is currently threatening to do.

Moser also praises some of the potential downballot Democatic candidates: "Former Travis County District Attorney Ronnie Earle, a white-hatted hero to many progressives for prosecuting Tom Delay, Sen. Hutchison and even himself, threw his hat in the ring. And then Linda Chavez- Thompson—sharecropper's daughter, national labor leader and vice chair of the Democratic National Committee—followed suit, potentially giving Democrats a boost in Latino turnout."

From NBC's Norah O'Donnell
A lawyer for the alleged third White House "party crasher" tells NBC News that his client believes he was invited to President Obama's first state dinner at the White House and attended the reception, the dinner, and the performance.
 
A. Scott Bolden, a Washington defense attorney, could not identify who invited Carlos Allen to the state dinner. "He has no idea," Bolden said. "He had an invitation mailed to him."
The Secret Service has said that Allen was not an invited guest.

Allen's attorney also contradicts information provided to NBC News by administration officials about how Allen came to join the official Indian delegation at the Willard Hotel. An administration official says that Allen sneaked past State Department protocol officers by pretending to be part of the official delegation.

Bolden claims that "it was a mere coincidence" that Allen happened to meet up with the Indian delegation at the hotel. "We deny the Indian delegation invited him," Bolden said. "No one from the Indian business delegation invited him."

"It was a pure coincidence that he was at the Willard," Bolden added. "He had an invite and he hoped a ride with them. There is nothing sinister about this."

Allen is now the third individual to allegedly slip past security into the state dinner without being on the official guest list. But Allen's attorney says his client is very different than the party-crashing Salahi couple. "This wasn't about social climbing or crashing the most important party in D.C.," he told NBC. "It was part social, part work. He helps wealthy and important and powerful people all the time."

Allen is the owner of Hush Galleria, an event-planning business that says on its Web site that it connects "up and coming individuals with elite individuals in luxurious environments."

From NBC's Mark Murray
Flanked by friends and family outside his home in Connecticut, Sen. Chris Dodd (D) announced that he would not seek re-election in the fall, citing both his personal and political health.

"I never wavered in my determination to do the best job for our state and nation. I love my job as your senator," he said. "However, this past year has raised some challenges that insisted I take stock of my life."

Dodd continued, "Over the past 12 months, I have managed four major pieces of legislation through Congress...; lost a beloved sister in July and in August -- Ted Kennedy; battled cancer over the summer; and in the midst of all this, found myself in the toughest political shape of my career."

Yet he downplayed that his low poll numbers were the sole reason why he wasn't seeking another term. "I am very aware of my present political standing here at home. But it is equally clear that any certain prediction about an election victory or defeat nearly a year from now, would be absurd," he said. "None of these events or circumstances either individually or collectively is the cause of my decision not to seek re-election." 

Dodd said he asked himself -- "Why am I running" -- on Christmas Eve after the Senate passed its health-care bill and after visiting Ted Kennedy's grave. "I thought about the dozens of patriotic Senators with whom I have had the privilege of serving in an institution I dearly love," he said. "I have been a Connecticut senator for 30 years. I'm proud of the job I've done and the results delivered. But none of us are irreplaceable. None of us are indispensable. Those who think otherwise are dangerous."

He added, "That is how I came to the conclusion that, in the long sweep of American history, there are moments for each elected public servant to step aside and let someone else step up."

From NBC's Mark Murray and Domenico Montanaro
At the outset of the fight for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination, Joe Biden and Chris Dodd seemed like interchangeable candidates. They both were longtime, gray-haired U.S. senators. Both had their share of highs (for Biden it was his work on the Violence Against Women Act; for Dodd it was his work on the Family Medical and Leave Act) and lows (Biden's plagiarism scandal; Dodd's association with the Clinton White House's fundraising controversies).

And at the end of the nomination battle, both men dropped out after disappointing finishes in the Iowa caucuses.

But what happened in between is one of the more interesting sidebars of the 2008 election: Biden's stock rose -- despite that start with his "clean, articulate" comment -- while Dodd's dropped.

As Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, and John Edwards sucked up most of the oxygen on the Democratic side, Biden was able to steal moments during the debates. In fact, he delivered one of our top lines of the decades, when he said this: "Rudy Giuliani, there are only three things he mentions in a sentence -- a noun, verb, and 9/11."

On the other hand, Dodd was unable to break through the clutter. In one of his attempts to get attention -- especially among Iowa caucus-goers -- Dodd relocated his family to the Hawkeye State, which in retrospect hurt him back home in Connecticut. (All this said, Dodd might have played one of the most significant roles during the Democratic primary season when he challenged Hillary Clinton at an MSNBC debate on driver's licenses for illegal immigrants.)

In the end, Biden was selected as his party's VP nominee and now is Vice President of the United States. Meanwhile, Dodd -- after the troubling Countrywide and AIG stories -- was too damaged to win re-election back home.

*** UPDATE *** But also in the end, as Dodd stated at his press conference just moments ago, he's had a key role in two major pieces of legislation: health care and financial services reeform.

Democrats experience a Black Tuesday with retirements from Dodd, Dorgan, and Ritter… While Dodd's exit is probably a political blessing, the same can't be said for Dorgan's or Ritter's decisions… Republicans are one step closer to putting 11 Senate seats in play… What is happening to Democrats in the Mountain West?... And Harold Ford to challenge Gillibrand? Really?

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** Dems' Black Tuesday: Everything comes in threes, right? Within a span of just a few hours yesterday, we learned that three Democratic incumbents -- Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd, North Dakota Sen. Byron Dorgan, and Colorado Gov. Bill Ritter -- said they won't be running for re-election this fall. Of course, this happens every holiday break: A politician comes back from spending time at home and makes a surprise decision not to run for office. The storyline is inevitable, but the character (in this case, characters) playing the lead role turned out to be the surprise. While most political junkies probably drafted Dodd in the first round of their Retirement Fantasy Draft (and also had David Vitter and even Robert Bennett in mind), we doubt anyone had Dorgan on the board. The biggest story with these retirements? The effect on President Obama. He's the head of the party, and to see so many Democrats in one day decide they don't want to run while he's the leader can create the perception of political weakness -- at the very time when he's trying to strong-arm Dems to give him health care and other major domestic achievements

*** Reading the tea leaves: Collectively, these retirements are a sign that many Democrats are reading the tea leaves and determining that this year is going to be difficult for their party. It's what happened to Democrats in the year preceding the GOP's sweep in 1994. So far, the Democratic Party hasn't seen a flood of retirements -- and it's important to note, as Anita Dunn did on TODAY, that Democrats have just two Senate retirements, compared with six for the GOP -- but the sheer number yesterday leaves a mark. Combine this with the Alabama congressman, Parker Griffith, who switched parties late last month, and it all creates a psychological effect on the party. It demoralizes activists trying to get fired up about the midterms; it also demoralizes donors; and then it could convince other Democrats sitting on the fence to jump off. They might think, "Well, if Byron Dorgan thinks he can't win, and that guy always figures out how to win in tough political environments, then maybe I should bail, too."

*** Good news, bad news: While this overall story isn't a good one for Democrats, Dodd's retirement -- which he'll announce at a press conference at noon ET in East Haddam, CT -- is a political blessing of sorts for the party. As political analyst Charlie Cook tells First Read, "Dodd's retirement is the only good thing that's happened to Democrats this week. Another Democrat, say state Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, would have a pretty good chance of winning. [But] Dodd had little chance. Unlike many other states, the problem in Connecticut was the incumbent, not the party." (As it turns out, Blumenthal holds a press conference at 2:30 pm ET.) On the other hand, the Dorgan news is a body blow. He was a player in leadership from a state that's not ordinarily associated with the Democratic Party (however, as Cook reminds us, the last Republican senator from North Dakota was Mark Andrews, who lost in 1986). And Dorgan's retirement makes it easier for Republicans to convince GOP Gov. John Hoeven to run for this Senate seat, giving them another pick-up opportunity. By the way, MSNBC's Ed Schultz interviews Dorgan on his show, which begins at 6:00 pm ET.

*** The first stage of denial: Of course, be wary when the first set of blind quotes you read from party strategists after a retirement is "[Fill in the blank's] decision may turn out to be a blessing." As we wrote above, that's probably true regarding Dodd. But we're also hearing that line about Ritter and also Lt. Gov. Cherry in Michigan, who announced yesterday he wouldn't be running for governor. Sure, it's easy to make the case that both certainly had uphill battles in their races. But remember when we heard all the happy talk from Republicans, who were blindly quoted saying that "trading Mel Martinez for Charlie Crist" in Florida is really a "blessing." Guess what: You think national Republicans wish they weren't dealing with the Crist-vs.-Rubio situation right now? You think national Republicans wish Arlen Specter were still running as a Republican and not given the Democrats their 60th Senate seat? The fact is that retirements, party switches, etc. hurt a party -- period.

*** These go to eleven? As one of us continually stated during the '06 cycle, no political party in recent times has regained control of the House without also taking back the Senate. The trend continued in '06, when Dems won BOTH the House and Senate. And it has been one of the reasons why we've thought the GOP's chances of taking back the House this year are slim -- because also picking up 11 Senate seats seems next to impossible. But Dorgan's retirement now gives Republicans legitimate shots in at least eight contests: AR, CO, CT, DE, IL, NV, ND, and PA. (Of course, Dodd's retirement probably diminishes the GOP's chances in CT.) And remember that Toss-up Senate races always tend to break in one direction. But for Republicans to have an opportunity to put 11 seats in play, they'll need to find three or four more legitimate targets out of California, New York (Gillibrand's seat), Oregon, Washington, and Wisconsin. And, of course, there's the "Massachusetts miracle" two weeks from now…

*** Ford tough? Speaking of Gillibrand, what about the news that Harold Ford Jr. might run against her in New York? Two things immediately come to mind. One, we always thought Gillibrand's vulnerability was on her left flank, but Ford (chair of the DLC!) can't run against her from the left, can he? And two, if Ford runs, we guess that ends his political career in Tennessee, right?   

*** All's not quiet on the Western front: In the past three election cycles, there has been no region where Democrats have fared better than in the Mountain West. Yet in the span of about three hours yesterday, we learned that two Mountain West incumbents up for re-election this year -- Dorgan and Ritter -- wouldn't be running in November, signaling that all isn't quiet for Dems on the western front. The Ritter retirement is especially symbolic because Colorado was seen as the shining example of the NEW Democratic Party. They won big in the state in '06; Dems made Denver their convention city to showcase the party's independent streak (and Ritter); and now they lose the state's governor to retirement because of a couple of mediocre polls. Sure, there's a strong bench in Colorado -- led by Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper and ex-Sen./current Interior Secretary Ken Salazar, and possibly Senate primary challenger Andrew Romanoff -- but Ritter wasn't facing a world-beater Republican. Ex-Congressman Scott McInnis was not lighting the fires of many Republicans nationally, as they feared his Washington baggage alone would cost him.

*** Ritter's double whammy: To put it another away, it's hard to fathom this, but apparently it's true: Ritter was chased into retirement by McInnis, who has never won statewide, had his share of internal dustups in the party, and is not exactly someone whom Colorado Republicans were getting fired up about. To add insult to injury, Ritter is the reason why Democrats nationally are worried so much about losing the state's SENATE seat. Instead of appointing the very popular mayor of Denver, he plucked someone out of relative obscurity, Michael Bennet, who has since drawn a primary challenge (from Romanoff) and is viewed as a very vulnerable target come November. So Ritter, as party leader in the state, created a mess in the Senate race and then pulls rip cord himself. A double whammy.

*** Today's non-midterm news: Turning away from all the midterm news, President Obama delivers remarks at the White House honoring math and science educators at 1:35 pm ET. About an hour later, NBC's Luke Russert reports, Obama will meet with House Democratic leaders and key committee chairs to discuss the health-care reconciliation. Speaking of, Obama has approved Democrats using the "ping-pong" method to pass health-care reform, Russert adds.

*** Illinois in the spotlight: Today's featured primary (or, better yet, primaries) to watch isn't as entertaining or as high profile as Perry vs. Hutchison in Texas or Crist vs. Rubio in Florida, but it bears watching because it's coming up 27 days from now. On Feb. 2, Illinois Dems will head to the polls to choose a nominee to permanently fill Obama's old Senate seat. The field is a far cry from the primary talent in '04, which included Obama, Blair Hull, and Dan Hynes. In fact, all three main Dems in next month's race have flaws -- apparent front-runner Alexi Giannoulias has Rezko ties, Cheryle Jackson used to be Blagojevich's spokeswoman, and David Hoffman has little name ID. (Dems and the Obama White House failed to get to get their desired candidate, state AG Lisa Madigan.) Also on the Dem side, incumbent Gov. Pat Quinn, who succeeded Blago, faces a primary challenge from Dan Hynes, the state's comptroller.

*** Captain Kirk? In Illinois' GOP Senate primary, front-runner Mark Kirk is facing a crowded field of challengers, including the more conservative Patrick Hughes, who has been trying to make hay out of Kirk's vote for cap-and-trade. Illinois remains a blue state, and the Dem winner probably has the edge, but Republicans are excited about Kirk's chances. That said, Kirk didn't handle his Senate announcement all that well (he played some "Hamlet" before throwing his hat into the ring), and the news that Kirk wanted Sarah Palin's help to fend off his primary challengers turned out to be embarrassing.

*** Coming to a magazine near you: By the way, yesterday's featured primary -- Crist vs. Rubio in Florida -- happens to be the cover of this coming Sunday's New York Times magazine. An excerpt from the article: "It is not uncommon for a party out of power to undergo an identity crisis and an internal bloodletting, and it is [Florida governor Charlie] Crist's bad luck that his race in 2010 fits the frame of a philosophical debate that has been fulminating in the Republican Party for several months. The race, and the national debate, pits the governing pragmatists against the ideological purists."

Countdown to MA Special Election: 13 days
Countdown to IL primary: 27 days
Countdown to TX primary: 55 days
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 300 days

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Both the New York Times and Washington Post front-page Chris Dodd's decision not to run for re-election. The Times: "The decision came hours after another Democratic senator, Byron L. Dorgan of North Dakota, also announced that he would not seek re-election this November. The developments underscored the fragility of the Democrats' 60-vote Senate majority, which is just enough to block Republican filibusters. Democratic incumbents also face serious challenges in Arkansas, Colorado, Nevada and Pennsylvania among other states." 

"Without Dodd as a foil, Republicans chances of taking over a seat in this solidly blue state are considerably diminished. Former Rep. Rob Simmons and wealthy businesswoman Linda McMahon are battling it out for the Republican nod but either would start as an underdog in a general election match up with [expected Democratic replacement candidate Attorney General Richard] Blumenthal."

The AP: "Given Dodd's bad poll standing, other Democrats have gone out of their way to give him the spotlight in hopes he could recover before November. With the embattled Dodd stepping aside, Democrats can now try to recruit a more popular candidate to run in Democratic-leaning state, bolstering the prospects of thwarting a Republican victory." Here's some bio info on Dodd. 

Roll Call also notes, "Dodd's move, unlike the announcement just hours earlier that Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-N.D.) will not seek re-election, is good news for Senate Democrats because it gives them a better shot at holding the seat in heavily Democratic Connecticut." Why the downfall? Two reasons: (1) Dodd's "ill-fated decision to run for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination -- and to move his wife and children temporarily to Iowa while he competed unsuccessfully in that state's first in the nation nominating caucuses -- alienated some Connecticut voters." And (2) "[T]he nation's financial crisis focused attention on Dodd's role as chairman of the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee, as well as on real estate loans he received that critics portrayed as sweetheart deals." 

The Washington Post on Dorgan's retirement: "Dorgan's decision is likely to have a considerable impact on the national landscape, coming less than a month after similar announcements by four House Democrats representing conservative districts. Democratic strategists continue to insist these decisions are unique to the specific lawmakers and not indicative of any broader national trend. But Dorgan's retirement complicates that argument -- the 67-year-old was on no one's retirement list at the start of this election cycle."  
 
Soon after Dorgan's announcement, [Republican] Gov. John Hoeven said he's "seriously" considering a U.S. Senate race, and he'll make up his mind soon. Hoeven has routinely brushed aside questions about a Senate candidacy with a statement that he was focused on his job as governor. He has also declined to give a timeline for making up his mind.   

Roll Call: "Sen. Byron Dorgan's (D-N.D.) decision to retire at the end of 2010 caught his fellow Senate Democratic leaders by surprise Tuesday. Sources said the Democratic Policy Committee Chairman had apparently made up his mind before notifying Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) and other colleagues of his decision, giving them no opportunity to talk him out of leaving open an already vulnerable Democratic seat."

The Denver Post on Ritter: "As word of Ritter's decision spread Tuesday night, most Republicans and Democrats were bound by a common reaction: surprise. 'I really like him,' said state Sen. Greg Brophy, R-Wray. 'I disagree with him on most policy issues, but dang, I like him.'"

Topping the list of important issues being negotiated between the House and Senate in trying to merge the health-care bill is the price of premiums. Plus: "At a White House meeting that stretched into Tuesday evening, the president and Democratic congressional leaders agreed on fast-track negotiations that would bypass the need for a formal conference to resolve differences between the House and Senate health care bills."
 
And is it goodbye public option for good? "House Democrats face the virtual certainty that they will not get the government-run insurance plan liberals had sought, a point Pelosi acknowledged after meeting earlier in the day with key committee leaders." 

"The informal negotiations Democrats plan to use to reconcile differences on healthcare drew fire from none other than Harry Reid back in 2006," The Hill notes, adding that Reid also "decried legislative dealmaking outside of the formal conference committee process in 2006 when the Senate was discussing asbestos legislation… Reid also criticize[d] the use of 'managers' amendments' to facilitate dealmaking. Democrats did use managers' amendments to help alleviate the concerns of centrists on healthcare legislation." 

"Sen. Blanche Lincoln (Ark.) spent Tuesday jabbing fellow centrist Democratic Sen. Ben Nelson (Neb.), saying a Medicaid deal he secured for his home state should be dropped from the final health care reform bill," Roll Call writes. She said, "The people of Arkansas did not send me to Washington to be a horse trader. They sent me there to work hard to get good policy. In this circumstance, it's obviously Medicaid dollars, which usually come in a formula-based system down to states. It's very complicated, it's very difficult and it's something that I think everyone needs to adhere to. We'll see what happens, whether it comes out or not. I think it's appropriate that it should." 

The Hill: "Republicans say their efforts to fight the Democrats agenda in the courts will not be limited to healthcare reform. They predicted that global climate change legislation, an employee card-check bill and a host of other new environmental and labor regulations would face court fights. With Democrats in control of the White House and large majorities in the Senate and House, Republicans view the third branch of government as their last, best hope to limit Obama's ambitious reform agenda."

RNC Chairman Michael Steele backed off his suggestion yesterday that Republicans couldn't win back the House this year. "Yes, we can," Steele said on Tuesday when pressed by MSNBC's Chris Matthews on whether the GOP will win back the House, before adding: "I think we can," The Hill writes.
 
"Arguing that 'circular firing squads' tear down the party, South Carolina Republicans came to the defense of GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham (S.C.) and pushed back against the Lexington County Republican Party's decision to formally censure him on Monday," Roll Call says. "In a letter to County GOP Chairman Rich Bolen, four former county chairmen -- Scott Malyerck, Katrina Shealy, Butch Wallace and Lyman Whitehead -- took aim at the censure resolution, which criticized Graham for his work across the aisle on immigration reform, the 2008 financial industry bailout and other bipartisan efforts."  
 
"In response to her husband Mark Sanford's extramarital -- and now extremely public -- year-long affair with an Argentine woman, Jenny has penned the tome 'Staying True.' The memoir will now hit stores on Feb. 5, a good three months prior to its original May release date," the New York Daily News writes. John Edwards' former aide's book is also due out in February. 

Yesterday, we highlighted the Republican Governors Association's haul. The Democratic Governors Association announced that it raised $23.1 million in 2009, "more than ever before in the organization's history, and will start the 2010 election cycle with nearly 12 times as much cash on hand as 2006, the last equivalent election cycle." In the fourth quarter, it says it raised more than $7 million and now has $17.5 million cash on hand, which is $1.5 million more than 2006.

CALIFORNIA: "When former Rep. Richard Pombo (R-Calif.) confirmed Tuesday on local KMJ talk radio that he will run for the 19th district seat held by retiring Rep. George Radanovich (R-Calif.), it touched off what is expected to be a fiery Republican primary -- one that is already dividing party activists," Roll Call writes.

FLORIDA: Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) endorsed Marco Rubio.   

MASSACHUSETTS: The Boston Globe looks at Martha Coakley's cases as attorney general, including one in which a 23-month old was raped by a police officer, but her office took little action: "Coakley, now the Democratic candidate for US Senate, has made much of her record prosecuting crimes against children, and says her office handled this investigation appropriately. But the case stands out as one in which she drew criticism for not being aggressive enough. Indeed, the case gave rise to Coakley's last competitive election."  

In one of their last debates before the Jan. 19th special election, the candidates for the Senate seat "clashed yesterday over health care, abortion, and terrorism in one of their final three debates before the Jan. 19 special election to succeed Edward M. Kennedy. But they agreed on one thing: Cardinal Sean O'Malley should release the names of any Irish priests accused of sexually abusing children in the Boston area."  

The Boston Globe: "In one of the most aggressive political fund-raising pushes in recent memory, Republican gubernatorial hopeful Charles D. Baker has amassed a $1.85 million war chest over roughly five months of campaigning, tapping into a broad range of supporters and establishing himself as a major threat to Governor Deval Patrick's reelection bid. Baker doubled, in less than half the time, what Patrick raised for the entirety of 2009, despite a fund-raising visit by President Obama this past fall for the Democratic governor. Baker's coffers currently hold more than 10 times the amount in Patrick's campaign account."

NEW YORK: Encouraged by a group of influential New York Democrats, Harold Ford Jr., the former congressman from Tennessee, is weighing a bid to unseat Sen. Kirsten E. Gillibrand in this fall's Democratic primary, according to three people who have spoken with him," the New York Times reports. According to the Times, a Ford bid has already been encouraged, if not outright endorsed, by members of the influential Tisch family and Mayor Michael Bloomberg. 

OHIO: Former President Bill Clinton appeared at a fundraising dinner for Gov. Ted Strickland's re-election bid last night.

TEXAS: A gubernatorial debate next Thursday features not only Republican headliners Gov. Rick Perry and Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, but also a third candidate, former county GOP chairwoman Debra Medina. 

UTAH: With the entry of Mike Lee into the race against Bob Bennett, Jason Chaffetz is expected to announce that he'll run for re-election in the House.  

WASHINGTON: Former Washington Redskin Clint Didier announced yesterday he will "run for Senate against incumbent Patty Murray (D-Wash.)" as  Republican. Didier was a tight end who won two Super Bowls with the Redskins in the 1980s. (Does he have the wrong Washington?) 

From NBC's Mark Murray
In a statement released today, North Dakota Sen. Byron Dorgan (D) announced that he would not seek re-election this year.

"Let me be clear that this decision does not relate to any dissatisfaction that I have about serving in the Senate," he said. "Yes, I wish there was less rancor and more bipartisanship in the U.S. Senate these days. But still, it is a great privilege to serve and I have the utmost respect for all of the men and women with whom I serve... Further, my decision has no relationship to the prospect of a difficult election contest this year.  Frankly, I think if I had decided to run for another term in the Senate I would be reelected."

He added, however: "But I feel that after serving 30 years, I want to make time for some other priorities. And making a commitment to serve in the Senate for the next seven years does not seem like the right decision for me."

Dorgan's decision gives Republicans an excellent opportunity to pick up the seat, especially if GOP Gov. John Hoeven decides to run.

For quite some time, Republicans have been courting Hoeven to run against Dorgan. Today's news might make that sell to Hoeven much easier.

Currently, the nonpartisan Cook Political Reports rates the North Dakota contest as "Solid Democrat." That rating will obviously change, especially if Hoeven gets in.

From NBC's Luke Russert
The first meeting of the House Democratic leadership regarding the path to final passage of a health-care reform bill is under way.

The players include: House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, Education and Labor Committee Chairman George Miller, Energy and Commerce Committee Chairman Henry Waxman, Ways and Means Chairman Charlie Rangel, and Rules Committee Chair Louise Slaughter.

The four chairmen/chairwomen were the principal folks who shaped the final bill within their committees. They are the most important people in terms of getting the final legislation passed and signing off on any changes that the Senate has made, because the membership of their committees represent a wide range of views within the Democratic Party.

As of now, Miller and Waxman have returned from their homes California, and are meeting with Pelosi and Hoyer; Rangel and Slaughter are on their way to DC. Absent is Majority Whip Jim Clyburn, and the reason is not known at this time.

The Democratic caucus is expected to meet on Thursday. Most members will participate via conference call. The House goes back into full work mode on Tuesday, Jan. 12.

*** UPDATE *** As it turns out, Clyburn was able to attend today's meeting.

From NBC's Mark Murray
More proof that Florida's Charlie Crist-vs.-Marco Rubio Senate primary is dividing Florida's Republican Party...

At 1:15 pm ET, Florida Republican Party Chairman Jim Greer -- whom Crist handpicked to fill that position -- was expected to announce that he's resigning from his post, First Read has confirmed. Florida media outlets report that state Sen. John Thrasher (R) will replace Greer.

The St. Petersburg Times says Greer "has been spending virtually all of his time fending off criticism of his management of party finances and his meddling in contested party primaries on behalf of Crist, while demands for his resignation by Republican activists have reached a crescendo in recent weeks."

More from the paper: "Despite an orchestrated vote of confidence at a state GOP meeting last month, the timing of Greer's announced resignation is no accident: He faced a most difficult vote of party leaders at a state GOP meeting this Saturday in Orlando, a vote he might not have survived."

Greer received national attention when he criticized President Obama's back-to-school speech last year as a platform "to spread" his "socialist ideology."

Crist released this statement: "I would like to commend my friend Chairman Jim Greer for his selfless dedication to the Republican Party of Florida over the last three years.  Under Chairman Greer's leadership we maintained a strong majority in Florida's Congressional Delegation and overwhelming majorities in the State House and Senate. Jim has long been a loyal servant to the Republican cause, and I appreciate the many sacrifices the Chairman, his wife Lisa, and their four children have made to ensure our Party's continued success in the Sunshine State.  Chairman Greer has and always will have my unwavering support." 

From NBC's Mark Murray
Last March, we compared Michael Steele's first few weeks as RNC chair to Howard Dean's rocky start as DNC chairman in '05. (Remember that Dean received criticism back then for saying the GOP was "pretty much a white, Christian party," and that many Republicans "have not made an honest living in their lives.)

But by now, as Steele's gaffes continue to pile up, there's really no comparison. Just consider what Steele has said on "Hannity" last night as he promotes his new book, "Right Now: A 12-Step Program for Defeating the Obama Agenda":

-- Steele not only admitted that Republicans probably wouldn't take back the House in November (a view shared by most political handicappers), but more importantly suggested that Republicans might not be ready to govern. "I don't know [if the GOP is ready]," he said. "And that's what I'm assessing and evaluating right now. Those candidates that are looking to run have to be -- have to be anchored in these principles. They have to be -- they have to understand ... these steps, because if they don't, then they'll get to Washington, and they'll start drinking that Potomac River water. And they'll get drunk with power."

-- Per liberal-leaning Media Matters, he also made a comment that some might find inappropriate or offensive: "Our platform is one of the best political documents that's been written in the last 25 years. Honest Injun on that," he told Hannity.

These new gaffes or verbal missteps come after the Washington Times uncovered that Steele has been giving paid speeches in addition to his day job, and after Hotline reported that Steele's RNC gave the Northern Mariana Islands $20,000 -- even though it doesn't have any voting members of Congress or any electoral votes.

An RNC spokeswoman responded to the $20,000 for the Northern Mariana Islands. "The RNC gives money to state parties because the job of the RNC is to help Republicans win elections -- just like we did in New Jersey and Virginia."

From NBC's Pete Williams
After initially answering questions from the FBI, Umar Abdulmutallab stopped talking several days ago, leaving some questions so far unanswered.

Among them:

-- Why did he buy a ticket for a flight to Detroit? 

Investigators have not come up with an answer, but some theorize that when Abdulmutallab bought his ticket, on Dec. 16, it was one of the few Christmas holiday flights to the U.S. with aisle seats available over the wing. He apparently wanted to sit over the wing (presumably in the belief that an explosion there would produce greater damage). Federal officials say he chose his seat, 19A, rather than having it assigned to him by the reservation computers.

More is known, now, about what he was doing in the weeks before he came to the U.S. After going to Yemen early in Aug. 2009, he went to Ghana, arriving in the city of Accra on Dec. 9, according to the government there, on an Ethiopian Airlines flight from Dubai that went through Addis Ababa. He bought his ticket for Detroit a week later at the KLM office in Accra, paying $2,831 for a round-trip ticket.

On Dec. 24, he flew from Accra to Lagos, on Virgin Nigerian Flight 804, on a one-way ticket. From there, he began the journey to Detroit, connecting through Amsterdam.

The government in Ghana says it doesn't know what he was doing there during the two weeks before the flight to the U.S.

-- Why did he spend 20 minutes in the airplane bathroom before returning to his seat and igniting the device he brought on board?

One thought -- again, just a theory on the part of some investigators -- is that he may have tried and failed to set off his explosives in the bathroom.  He clearly went there to retrieve the explosive powder from his underwear, but that wouldn't have taken 20 minutes.

By the way, investigators say he apparently wore the underwear that concealed the PETN powder over a regular pair of underwear. When he did set off the explosive material, in his lap under a blanket, the resulting fire burned his legs but not -- as was reported elsewhere -- his groin. 

-- What was the exact nature of his explosive device?

The FBI crime lab has yet to isolate all the specific chemicals involved, a senior official says, but federal agents have a pretty good idea. They believe four chemicals were involved.  Only two have so far been identified.

The first, which is known, was ethyl glycol. It was apparently combined with a second liquid (as yet unknown), which produced heat and flame. Those two together were intended to set off an initiator, probably the explosive TATP, which would cause the PETN to explode.

It's still not clear why the device didn't work. And while the crime lab techs believe the second and third chemicals were present, they haven't yet found traces of them.

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Michigan Lt. Gov. John Cherry, who was the perceived front runner for the Democratic nomination in the toss-up Michigan governor's race to replace Jennifer Granholm, will announce he's dropping out at noon today, according to a Democratic source.

Local Lansing, Mich., affiliate WLNS reported late last night that Cherry may drop out. "[W]ord is that Cherry has had trouble raising money -- and fellow Democrats have privately and publically expressed doubts about his ability to win the race if he secured his party's nomination," WLNS wrote.

The possible front runners now for the nomination are either Andy Dillon, who is the speaker of the House, and Lansing mayor Virg Bernero.

"But stay tuned on that front," the source said.

Obama meets with security team to discuss failed terror plot, and makes brief remarks at 4:00 pm ET… House Dem aide says legislative ping-pong isn't all that uncommon… Steele criticizes Bush 41, Bush 43, and McCain… Profiling Crist vs. Rubio… Does Scott Brown have a chance two weeks from today?... And Kay Bailey Hutchison to air TV ad during the Texas-Alabama game.

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** The reviews are in: At 2:30 pm ET today, President Obama will hold a meeting with his national security team to discuss the agency reviews looking into the failed Christmas Day terrorist attack. Those attending today's meeting include Secretaries Clinton, Gates, Napolitano and Chu; Attorney General Holder; Counterterrorism chief Brennan; DNI Director Blair; CIA Director Panetta; and FBI Director Mueller. According to the White House, Obama will receive an update on the investigation from Mueller, an update on the prosecution from Holder, and an update on the detection capabilities from Napolitano. The president will then get an update from Brennan on his review of the watch-list system. After the meeting, at 4:00 pm, Obama will make brief remarks, in which he'll outline his findings and initial security reforms. Roll Call adds that the president will brief members of Congress later tonight. As we noted yesterday, the next phase in this story will take place when Congress subpoenas most of these same folks before various congressional committees. And how these folks do at those hearings will determine the level of, um, "accountability" that will come their way.

*** Debating the game of ping-pong: Turning to health care, Politico reports this morning that liberals and Republicans are criticizing the news that House and Senate Democrats will bypass a formal conference committee and instead play a game of legislative "ping-pong" -- i.e., amend their respective health bills until they're identical. However, a House Democratic aide tells First Read that legislative ping-pong is not all that uncommon of a practice, noting that the S-CHIP and FDA/tobacco laws were reconciled that way. Meanwhile, Politico got its hands on an 11-page summary outlining the differences between the House and Senate health-care bills. 

*** Steele also criticizes his own: RNC Chairman Michael Steele -- beyond his day job, the paid speaking engagements, and sometimes filling in for conservative radio host Bill Bennett -- also had time to a write a new book, "Right Now: A 12-Step Program for Defeating the Obama Agenda," which he discussed on TODAY this morning. In the book, per the AP, Steele directly or indirectly takes several post-Reagan Republican leaders to task. He criticizes Bush 41 "for raising taxes two years after President Ronald Reagan left office, though Steele ignores the fact that Reagan raised taxes too"; Bush 43 "for not vetoing any spending bills during his first five years in office"; and McCain "for backing censorship of political speech through the McCain-Feingold campaign finance law." (One GOP pol who escapes criticism -- or any mention -- is Palin.) Correct us if we're wrong, but didn't the GOP experience its greatest gains as a political party AFTER Reagan? When Reagan came into office, the party was still largely a presidential party. Over the last 20 years, the GOP became a competitive party at every level of government. Isn't the "Reagan" defense too easy of an excuse?

*** Crist vs. Rubio: If yesterday's profiled primary, Perry vs. Hutchison in Texas, isn't the best primary of 2010, then today's profiled primary is, Charlie Crist vs. Marco Rubio down in Florida. Last spring, some Republicans, especially the NRSC, were rejoicing that Charlie Crist got into the Senate race. Now some conservatives see him as a villain -- consider Crist embracing Obama and the stimulus -- and are backing the more conservative Rubio in the Aug. 24 primary. That Crist has gone from a rare GOP success story in '06 to a pariah might tell us more about the Republican Party than it does Crist. But he's been a politician in a hurry, and his decision to avoid running for a second term as governor has given his foes more fuel to criticize him. Still, even though Rubio has made up ground in the polls, Crist enjoys a sizable fundraising edge. Some questions folks will be asking between now and August: Can Rubio beat Kendrick Meek in a general election? (Republicans say yes.) And could Crist pull an Arlen Specter? (Very doubtful, we've heard.)

*** I knew Mitt Romney. Mitt Romney was a friend of mine. Senator, you're no Mitt Romney: Speaking of Senate races, Massachusetts voters head to the polls exactly two weeks from today to select a permanent replacement for Ted Kennedy's seat. Democrat Martha Coakley, who won a Dem four-way race last month, is the favorite. But there's chatter in the conservative blogosphere that Republican candidate, state Sen. Scott Brown, could make the race closer than people are expecting, given the low turnout and evidence in polls that Republicans have an enthusiasm advantage. But remember: This is Massachusetts, where Democrats control all 10 congressional seats and 90% of the state's legislature. The contest, which also features a third-party candidate (the deliciously named Joe Kennedy, no relation) takes place on Jan. 19. If Brown does keep this respectable, look for the conservative grassroots to cry foul (again) at the Washington Republican establishment. While the folks in DC are making a strategic decision because of the facts we've outlined above, it still won't sit well with many fired up conservative grassroots activists

*** Lee to challenge Bennett: This news, via the Salt Lake Tribune, is pretty significant regarding another primary to watch: "Attorney Mike Lee plans to join the field of candidates challenging Sen. Bob Bennett for the Republican nomination for the U.S. Senate. Lee, a prominent Salt Lake City attorney who lives in Alpine, plans to make the announcement tomorrow at the Utah Capitol. He will be endorsed by former Gov. Norm Bangerter and former U.S. Rep. Jim Hansen."

*** Other midterm news: Lincoln Chafee, a former Republican who lost his Rhode Island Senate seat in 2006, officially announced his independent bid for governor yesterday… The San Francisco Chronicle reports that California's GOP gubernatorial primary has become a "battle of the super rich," with Meg Whitman already contributing $19 million of her own money and Steve Poizner pouring in $15 million… And Kay Bailey Hutchison's campaign has bought air time for a TV ad to run during Thursday's Texas-Alabama college football championship game, which Hutchison will be attending in person. As we wrote yesterday, Hutchison is a University of Texas grad, while primary opponent Rick Perry is a Texas A&M Aggie.

Countdown to MA Special Election: 14 days
Countdown to IL primary: 28 days
Countdown to TX primary: 56 days
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 301 days

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