What happens to health care if Coakley loses?... Do House Democrats vote for the Senate bill?... And do Obama and the Dems hit the re-set button?… New NBC/MSNBC/WSJ poll numbers on race… Yesterday's overlooked speech by Obama… And Norm Coleman decides against a gubernatorial bid.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** If Coakley loses? If Martha Coakley (D) loses in tomorrow's special election in Massachusetts -- and it's more than a possibility at this point -- then what happens to health care? There are some Plan Bs for the Democrats, but all of them have risks. One, they could hope to delay Scott Brown's (R) being seated in the Senate, especially if the race is close, but this move would have disastrous P.R. consequences for the White House and Democrats in control of Congress (think Franken-Coleman, but on steroids). Two, they could try to persuade Olympia Snowe (R) to be their 60th vote, but if she didn't vote for the legislation in December, why would she vote for it now? (And what Harry Reid said about her in the New York Times magazine probably doesn't help, either.) Third, they could use budget reconciliation to pass it without 60 votes, but as we've written before, you're putting health care's fortunes in the hands of the Senate parliamentarian, who could strike out key sections of bill because they aren't germane to the budget. And fourth, you have the House pass the Senate bill, but we know that many House Democrats weren't fans of the Senate's work.
*** I'll take what's behind Door Number 4… : Still, Door Number 4 seems to be gaining the most traction at this point. So how can Democrats do this? Well, the Senate passed their bill with a House number -- H.R. 3590. So because it has a House number, it's technically a House bill, and if the House passes it without a single change, then the bill can go to the White House for the president's signature without another vote in the Senate. (After all, would Blanche Lincoln and Evan Bayh still be there for the White House for another vote? Both are up in 2010 in states a lot less Democratic friendly than Massachusetts.) Putting a House number (H.R.) on their bills is something the Senate does regularly with many bills, particularly if there's a concern about how the conference committee process is going to work.
*** Unintended consequences and unanswered questions: Now there are plenty of unintended consequences and unanswered questions of going this route. If the House simply passes the Senate bill, the deal Big Labor cut last week on the so-called "Cadillac" excise tax is null and void. Also, the Medicaid exemption for Nebraska would still be in there. Finally, this idea really hasn't been floated by the House Democratic leadership. When First Read asked a member of the House leadership about this possibility a few months ago, were told, "No chance" because the assumption was the House moderates and progressives were going to want to have a real say in the conference committee and didn't want to simply look like they were run by the Senate Democrats. Of course, that was then; this is now. And the political reality is this: The White House does not want a year of the political capital they used up on health care to die because of a special election in Massachusetts. They believe they need SOMETHING for all of this political pain they've endured.
*** Hitting the re-set button? A top GOP strategist asked First Read this question: "Isn't it a bit ironic that we've all concluded Obama will fail if he doesn't have 60 votes? Maybe he could go back to the campaign plan of being a post-partisan?" Indeed, a Democratic loss on Tuesday could actually turn out to be a blessing for the White House (if they seize the moment), because it would allow Obama and the Democrats to hit the re-set button, forcing Democratic leaders to work with their GOP counterparts to get something done. Of course, it takes two to tango, and Republicans haven't yet to show any willingness to work with this president unless it's Afghanistan or some GOP orthodoxy (like tax cuts). However, the White House did a poor job of creating its own GOP caucuses, separate from the Dem leadership's.
*** Gender and Patrick: If Coakley loses tomorrow, you'll also hear plenty of reminders that Massachusetts has never elected a female governor or senator. But it's also worth remembering that Massachusetts did overwhelmingly vote for Hillary Clinton in the Bay State's Democratic presidential primary, as did neighboring New Hampshire, which has elected Jeanne Shaheen as governor and senator. Here's one other thing to point out: Brown has run almost as much against Deval Patrick as he's run against Coakley and the Democratic agenda in Washington. Patrick is more unpopular than Obama's health care plan. And by running against Patrick early on, Brown was able to frame Coakley as the "incumbent."
*** Race in America one year into Obama's presidency: In our new NBC/WSJ poll, which gets released in full tomorrow night, we asked some questions about race. And we're unveiling those numbers today in conjunction with Martin Luther King Jr. Day and MSNBC's special program "Obama's America -- 2010 and beyond," which airs tonight at 10:00 pm ET. Here's one set of numbers we can release early: Asked whether America is a nation where people are not judged by the color of their skin but by the content of their character, 60% of all adults agreed, which was up from 47% in Jan. 2008 before Obama won the presidency. But there's a racial divide here: While 62% of whites and 57% of Hispanics said that people are not judged by the color of their skin, only 40% of African Americans agreed with that. We'll be releasing some other NBC/WSJ poll numbers on race later this afternoon. So one year into the Obama presidency and it appears views on race haven't dramatically changed -- yet.
*** Yesterday's overlooked speech: Speaking of Martin Luther King Jr. Day, Obama's comments yesterday honoring MLK at an African-American church in D.C. haven't received as much attention as his rally for Coakley did. But they should. For one thing, he admitted some of his failings in his first year in office. "On the heels of that victory over a year ago, there were some who suggested that somehow we had entered into a post-racial America, all those problems would be solved," he said. "There were those who argued that because I had spoke of a need for unity in this country that our nation was somehow entering into a period of post-partisanship. That didn't work out so well." Could this be the first hints of what we could hear at the State of the Union next week (assuming it is next week), particularly in the wake of a Brown victory tomorrow?
*** Obama's message to progressives: Obama also uttered these words, which seemed directed at progressives who have been disappointed with some of the compromises his administration has had to make. "Sometimes I get a little frustrated when folks just don't want to see that even if we don't get everything, we're getting something. King understood that the desegregation of the Armed Forces didn't end the civil rights movement, because black and white soldiers still couldn't sit together at the same lunch counter when they came home. But he still insisted on the rightness of desegregating the Armed Forces. That was a good first step." And that brings us to…
*** Democrats eating their own? Eyebrows were raised when prominent liberal blogger -- Firedoglake's Jane Hamsher -- released a robo-poll on Friday showing Arkansas Rep. Vic Snyder (D) trailing by 17 points (56%-39%). Later that day, Snyder announced he wouldn't be seeking re-election. Then on Saturday, Firedoglake released another robo-poll showing Ohio Rep. Steve Driehaus (D) also losing by 17 points. What's interesting here is that Snyder and Driehaus both voted for the House health-care bill last November And liberal blogger Dave Weigel wondered if Hamsher and Firedoglake were trying to scare vulnerable House Dems into retirement as a way to kill health reform, due to Hamsher's disagreements with the legislation (over the public option, mandates, and deals with industry groups. Hamsher replied, "If Vic Snyder is getting hammered, it isn't because of a poll. The fault lies much deeper than that. The corrupt PhRMA deal, the insurance company giveaways, their exemption from anti-trust laws -- people understand what's going on, and Democrats across the country are paying a price for it. You'd have to be in serious denial to pretend anything else."
*** More midterm news: In Colorado, Democrats are trying to persuade Andrew Romanoff, who is currently challenging incumbent (and appointed) Sen. Michael Bennet (D), to run for lieutenant governor… And in Minnesota, Norm Coleman has said he's not running for governor this year. "This is not the right time for me and my family to conduct a campaign for Governor," he said in a Facebook post. "The timing on this race is both a bit too soon and a bit too late."
Countdown to MA Special Election: 1 day
Countdown to IL primary: 15 days
Countdown to TX primary: 43 days
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 288 days
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