From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** Tonight's presser: Will President Obama come armed with news tonight when, beginning at 8:00 pm ET, he holds his fourth primetime news conference? In his last full-fledged presser -- a daytime one dominated by the Iranian issue -- the president didn't have any news, and instead found himself more on the defensive than at any other time he's faced the press. You can easily see how tonight's news conference could produce a similar outcome if the White House doesn't have some specific news to make on health care. Will Obama be able to articulate specific policy proposals on health care that he's for, or will we hear more of the same chatter on his principles? Repetition is always important to pushing a message, but one of the things that may be slowing down the process in Congress is that the president hasn't come out publicly on the specifics. He won't even say if he's OK with the millionaires' surtax or not; whether a co-op is enough to fulfill his "public option" promise; or what amount of "virtually" universal coverage is satisfactory. Other issues will also come up tonight, including the stimulus and the economy in general, perhaps Iraq, Afghanistan, GITMO, and the Bush-era investigation issue. But health care should dominate.
*** The taxing debate: One of the bigger, but more under-reported, sea changes in American politics is how any kind of tax increase -- whether in war or peace, good economic times or bad ones -- has become absolutely unacceptable. After all, Ronald Reagan raised taxes. So did every modern American president involved in war, until George W. Bush. But not anymore. Indeed, as one of us pointed out on Nightly News last night, only 29% (or 157) of the 535 and House members and senators serving in Congress were around the last time -- 1993! -- the federal government raised taxes, and that was on gasoline. Think about that for a moment: Congress hasn't really had a TOUGH vote in 16 years, if one defines a "TOUGH" vote as the government asking for a financial sacrifice from the American people. This is the political climate that President Obama faces in trying to pay for health reform. Republicans and some Democrats are opposed to a tax on the wealthy, and unions and Obama's political strategists are against taxing health benefits.
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Video: Sen. Jim DeMint, R-S.C., an outspoken critic of President Obama's health care reform plans, talks with TODAY's Matt Lauer about Republicans' concerns about the proposed reforms.
*** A new era of responsibility? But at some point, if you're fighting two wars, trying to pay for health care, promising to reduce the deficit, and trying NOT to "starve the beast," you've got to raise taxes, right? When they were in charge, Republicans punted because they could NEVER go back to their base and defend a tax increase of any kind (and look where that got them). But is Barack Obama, who called for a "new era of responsibility" in his inaugural address, willing to use his influence to truly change how Washington works? So far, he's supported borrowing -- for the stimulus and for part 2 of the bank bailout.
*** The Great American Health-Care Fight: Other moving parts in the health-care debate: Right before Obama's press conference tonight, Eric Cantor and other GOP members participate in a health-care forum sponsored by the conservative Pajamas Media TV… The DNC is running a Web video using Sen. Jim DeMint's "Waterloo" comment to hit Republicans on health care… Cantor's office has its own Web video on the subject… And around 9:30 am ET, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell speaks on health care, his 25th speech on the topic since June 1, according to his office.
*** Transparency we can believe in? And just askin', but why is the White House declining a request to release a list of health-care industry stakeholders it has met with? The Los Angeles Times: "Invoking an argument used by President George W. Bush, the Obama administration has turned down a request from a watchdog group for a list of health industry executives who have visited the White House to discuss the massive healthcare overhaul. Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington sent a letter to the Secret Service asking about visits from 18 executives representing health insurers, drug makers, doctors and other players in the debate. The group wants the material in order to gauge the influence of those executives in crafting a new healthcare policy." And this gets at another issue: The White House hasn't said what it has promised the various stakeholders they've gotten to publicly promise to make cuts. Apparently, doctors are getting a 10-year fix to soften the blow of lower Medicare reimbursement rates. Who else got what?
*** Iraq is back: Before his primetime news conference, Obama meets at the White House with Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki, and the two will hold a joint press availability at 3:00 pm ET.
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According to NBC's Libby Leist, Iraq's Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari told reporters in Washington this week that Maliki will have one key message for Obama today: your attention is still needed. Zebari pressed the point that while the Obama administration turns its focus to the war in Afghanistan, it cannot come at Iraq's expense. He stressed that "serious challenges" remain and Iraq is still in a very fragile situation, especially over the next six months in the run up to January 2010 elections. For his part, Obama will try and send message that the U.S. is pledging support beyond security, and cultural and business exchanges will be discussed. Simply put, Iraq is like an 18 year old -- it wants independence from the parent (in this case the U.S.), but if it runs into trouble, it wants to know that the parent will bail him/her out.
*** Ace of Base? Whether it's "Birther" conspiracies, worries about ACORN and the Census, or the GOP's fealty to Rush Limbaugh, watching the conservative base in the Obama Era has become one of the fascinating spectacles in American politics. And perhaps the best place to monitor that base is in competitive Republican primaries. The latest example: Florida Gov. Charlie Crist -- who's running for the Senate and competing in a GOP primary against the more conservative Marco Rubio -- says he opposes Sonia Sotomayor's Supreme Court nomination. If Crist weren't running in a competitive Republican primary, does anyone believe he'd be opposing Sotomayor, let alone commenting on this issue? Do note that the man Crist and Rubio are trying to replace, Mel Martinez, has said he'll vote for her. As the Washington Post's Cillizza writes, Crist "appears more concerned about angering the GOP primary electorate by supporting Sotomayor than risking the ire of Hispanics in a general election against Rep. Kendrick Meek."
*** Birth(er) of a nation, part 2: Speaking of the conservative base, is anyone else stunned that a member of the United States Congress wouldn't unequivocally say that Barack Obama was born in the United States? That's exactly what happened when MSNBC's Chris Matthews interviewed Rep. John Campbell (R-CA) on Hardball yesterday. Why are elected officials feeding this conspiracy theory? As the "Morning Joe" crew noted today, what do these conspiracy theorists think -- a single mother, 47 years ago, secretly had the president in Indonesia and then hours later decided to get a Hawaii birth announcement because she thought he'd be president?
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Video: Democratic strategist Chris Kofinis discusses what problems the Republican Party will face if they continue to entertain conspiracy theories like those questioning President Barack Obama's citizenship.
*** Palin back in the news: With four days until she officially leaves office, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin is dealing with another ethics investigation. The AP reports that an independent investigator "has found evidence that … Palin may have violated ethics laws by accepting private donations to pay her legal debts. The report obtained by The Associated Press says Palin is securing unwarranted benefits and receiving improper gifts through the Alaska Fund Trust, set up by supporters." Per NBC's Norah O'Donnell, Palin spokeswoman Meg Stapleton issued this response: "I cannot verify the validity of this claim. There is no final report. The investigator is still confidentially reviewing this matter. It appears suspect that in the final days of the governor's term, someone would again violate the law and announce a supposed conclusion before it is reached."
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Video: Is Palin going to have to face charges? Rachel Maddow is joined by KTUU reporter Jill Burke
*** Gingrich & Giuliani: Today in DC, two of the nation's better-known Republicans -- Newt Gingrich and Rudy Giuliani -- give competing speeches on the economy. At 10:00 am ET at the National Press Club, Gingrich will outline steps he thinks will lead to job creation. And at the same time at the American Enterprise Institute, Giuliani will talk about the free market and economic competitiveness.
Countdown to Palin Stepping Down: 4 days
Countdown to Election Day 2009: 104 days
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 468 days
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