From NBC's Ken Strickland
Details on some of the most contentious elements of health-care reform were released today by one of Senate committees drafting the bill. 

The Senate Health Committee unveiled its plan for a public/government insurance program to compete with private insurers. And it also detailed the "play or pay" provision that would require companies to provide insurance coverage to their employees or pay fees to the government.

Today's announcement, while significant, provides only a few new pieces in what has become a giant health-care reform puzzle. Several outstanding issues remain -- chief among them total cost of reform and how you pay for that cost. Votes are at least weeks away, and bipartisanship on major elements remain elusive.

Here are the outlines of what the committee released today. (This is the committee chaired by Ted Kennedy, but temporarily run by Chris Dodd.)

Video: As President Obama pushed hard again on Wednesday to overhaul America's health care system, battle lines were being drawn over how he'll pay for a government insurance plan without raising taxes. NBC's Savannah Guthrie reports.

The Public Option (officially called "Community Health Insurance Option")
-- run by the Department of Health and Human Services
-- government loans provide start-up cost, but would eventually become self financed through premium payments
-- would follow the same rules as private insurance for things like defining benefits, consumer protections, and setting premiums "that are fair and based on local cost"
-- doctors would not be under obligation to participate in the public option
-- doctors payment rates -- negotiated by HHS Secretary -- would be "no more than the local average private rates, but could be less."

Employer Play or Pay: ("Shared Responsibility of Employers")
-- companies that do not offer "adequate coverage" to full time workers would pay an annual fee of $750 per employee
-- companies that do not offer coverage for part-time workers pay $375 per employee
-- firms with less that 25 employees would be exempt from fees
-- companies most cover 60% of the cost of the monthly premiums to avoid fees

The Congressional Budget Office estimates the cost of the committee's bill at $611 billion over 10 years. (But because the Senate Finance Committee holds exclusive jurisdiction of other areas of health-care reform -- like Medicaid expansion -- that cost estimate is incomplete.) The panel also cites CBO figures that show 97% of American would have insurance coverage.

From NBC's Scott Foster
In an on-camera interview today with the AP, President Obama was asked for his reaction to the apparent perception in the black community that he wasn't "respectful enough" to the death of Michael Jackson.

The president responded that he knows "a lot of people in the black community, and I haven't heard that."

(To recap: Obama's spokesman spoke on the president's behalf during a White House briefing last week, and the White House issued a written statement over the weekend that the President had sent a condolence letter to the Jackson family.)

Today, Obama offered his public reaction, praising the legacy of Jackson -- while also noting the troubling aspects of his life.

"Michael Jackson is -- will go down in history as one of the greatest entertainers," he said. "I grew up on his music, still have all his stuff on my iPod. You know, I think his brilliance as a performer also was paired with a tragic and in many ways sad personal life. But, you know, I am glad to see that he is being remembered primarily for the great joy that he brought to a lot of people through his extraordinary gifts as an entertainer."

From NBC's Mark Murray
The vice president's office just announced that Joe Biden has arrived in Iraq. The visit comes just days after the withdrawal of U.S. troops from the country's largest cities. Here's the release:

Vice President Biden has arrived in Iraq to visit U.S. troops and to meet with Iraqi leaders, including President Jalal Talabani, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and Speaker of the Council of Representatives Ayad al-Samarrai. The Vice President will reiterate the United States' commitment to fully implement the Security Agreement and the Strategic Framework Agreement and to carry out President Obama's plan to draw down U.S. forces. He will discuss with Iraq's leaders the importance of achieving the political progress that is necessary to ensure the nation's long-term stability. This is Vice President Biden's second trip to Iraq this year and his first as Vice President.

From NBC's Mark Murray
First Read has confirmed that former President Bill Clinton will host a fundraiser for New York Rep. Carolyn Maloney -- which is certainly interesting given that Maloney is challenging incumbent Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand.

A Clinton source insists that this doesn't mean he's endorsing Maloney, and says the former president is raising money for her "as a way of saying thanks for Maloney's help" during Hillary's failed 2008 presidential bid.

Bill Clinton, in fact, helped raise money for Gillibrand earlier this year.

Still, the news that Clinton is assisting Maloney here probably isn't welcome news to the Obama administration (which includes Clinton's wife) and establishment Democrats backing Gillibrand.

From NBC's Mark Murray
As expected, Republicans have seized on today's job-loss news, blasting out statements that criticize President Obama's handling of the economy (even though, as we pointed out this morning, that the huge job losses began back in 2008).

RNC Chairman Michael Steele: "June's unemployment report shows a job loss of 467,000 and proves that the stimulus package is not a 'Recovery Act.' Today President Obama will hold another White House PR event with presidential spin instead of putting forth real world, free market solutions that will put Americans back to work."

House Minority Whip Eric Cantor: "House Republicans laid out a serious and substantive agenda that put jobs first. House Democrats, along with the White House, instead took an unfocused, 'go it alone' approach that has fallen well short of its goals and has failed to create jobs."

And House Minority Leader John Boehner has released a Web video that asks, "Where are the jobs?"

[Youtube:tl_q0afUl0E]

*** UPDATE *** AFL-CIO spokesman Eddie Vale sends along this observation to First Read: "Pretty ironic that R's first opposed the stimulus, then some came over while making it smaller than D's and unions wanted, and now complaining that it isn't creating enough jobs."

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** Unemployment at 9.5%: Right before the long July 4th weekend, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning that the U.S. economy lost 467,000 jobs in June, and that the unemployment rate is now 9.5%, a 26-year high. Expect Republicans -- once again -- to pounce on these numbers and question the stimulus (but they're also forgetting that the economy lost 3.1 million jobs in Bush's last year in office; in Obama's first five months, the total loss has been 1.9 million). Not surprisingly, of course, Obama will today talk about jobs, innovation, and the economy at 2:20 pm ET. These remarks will follow a closed-press meeting with business leaders. Later in the afternoon, the president departs to Camp David to begin his July 4th holiday.

*** Home cookin' at the town hall? Did the White House get a tad carried away in its attempt to stay on message at yesterday's town hall? Says the Washington Post, "Of the seven questions the president answered, four were selected by his staff from videos submitted to the White House Web site or from those responding to a request for 'tweets.' The president called randomly on three audience members. All turned out to be members of groups with close ties to his administration: the Service Employees International Union, Health Care for America Now, and Organizing for America, which is a part of the Democratic National Committee. White House officials said that was a coincidence." Then again, Republicans who are pouncing on this news have probably forgotten when only party faithful were even allowed into Bush town halls and rallies. Still, the optics here for Obama -- someone who usually doesn't shy away from answering tough questions -- aren't good. For those complaining that Obama is being held to a different standard than Bush, remember that he set his own standard, and that's why the media is pushing back so hard on him.

*** Operations Khanjar (Strike of the Sword): According to NBC's Jim Miklaszewski, the U.S. Marines announced last night that 4,000 Marines and 650 Afghan military launched a major offensive in the Helmand province of southern Afghanistan -- aimed at driving out the Taliban to "secure the population from the threat of Taliban and other insurgent intimidation and violence." It is the first large-scale operation of its kind under the new emerging U.S. military strategy for Afghanistan. Unlike previous operations in the country, Mik says, the Marines intend to set up a series of bases and remain in Helmand. The objective is to create long-term security and stability that will enable the local Afghans to establish legitimate government. In other Afghanistan news, Mik reports that American officials believe that the Taliban has kidnapped a U.S. soldier in another part of that country.

*** North Korea and Russia: But Afghanistan isn't the only international issue the White House is closely following today. Also on its radar screen is a potential North Korea missile launch tied to July 4. "Asked if North Korea is likely to conduct a July 4 Taepodong-2 test, as occurred in 2006, Gen. Renuart said in an interview this week with The [Washington] Times at Northern Command headquarters at Peterson Air Force Base, 'I think we ought to assume there might be one on the Fourth of July and continue to be prepared and ready.'" And then there's Obama's upcoming trip to Russia. The Wall Street Journal writes, "Obama will explore with Russian leaders a longstanding proposal by Moscow to install U.S. missile-defense components on Russian soil, aimed at growing threats such as the Iranian and North Korean missile programs. The White House and Kremlin do expect progress on negotiations to reduce strategic nuclear warheads to about 1,500 for each side." Bottom line on the Kremlin visit: If the Russians insist missile defense needs to be a part of the nuke talks rather than a parallel discussion, then it'll be hard to call this part of the trip a success.

*** 2009 vs. 1993-1994: The narrow passage of the House energy bill had many Republicans drawing parallels to 1993-994, when contentious legislation (BTU, gas-tax increase) helped the GOP take back control of Congress. But there's one big difference between then and now: Back in 1994, Democrats had controlled the House of Representatives since the 1950s; now they've controlled it for less than three years. The energy vote victory, National Journal's Ron Brownstein writes, "suggests that Democrats learned something from their 12 years in the minority, when they watched narrower Republican House majorities, however reluctantly, surmount their differences to pass almost all of their party's agenda. 'The example of 1994 looms over everything," says White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel. 'We learned that if we don't hang together, we die separately. It brought unity and pragmatism to the party.'" One could argue Rahm lives by the following credo: WDCDin'94 (What Did Clinton Do In '94?), and then he advises the president to do the opposite. Speaking of '94, Politico notes that several members of that GOP freshmen class (Sanford, Ensign) have been caught up in affairs or sex scandals. 

*** The GOP's brand problem: This Washington Post piece has a fascinating take on why Norm Coleman lost to Al Franken: It's all about the Republican Party's brand. "[S]ome Republican strategists said the Coleman defeat ought to generate a broader reexamination of the party's status rather than simply a review of its legislative tactics. 'For [Coleman] to lose to Al Franken has to be a wake-up call to Republicans that the brand is what brought Coleman down,' GOP strategist John Feehery said. 'Hopefully that will spark a bigger strategic discussion about how to prevent the brand from bringing other people down.'" In 2010, we'll get some good tests about the state of the GOP brand in the Ohio (Rob Portman) and Missouri (Roy Blunt) Senate races. 
 
*** My Bodyguard (or not): Will the drip-drip end up being South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford's undoing? Earlier this week, of course, Sanford gave that bizarre interview to the AP, in which he admitted more contacts with his Argentine mistress than he previously revealed, and then said he had "crossed the lines" with other women. (The interview became more damaging when the audio was released. It was one thing for folks to read the excerpts; it was another to listen to Sanford.) Now comes a report from the State newspaper noting that Sanford left the governor's mansion without a security escort 38 times in 2008, and 39 times in the first six months of this year. "Those trips are about one-third of the 195 trips Sanford made from the mansion, with or without security, over that 18-month period… The information was obtained from security logs provided to The State newspaper under open-records laws." 

*** Happy Fourth of July: Finally, we won't be publishing our morning note tomorrow, although we'll update the Web site as news warrants. We'll see you bright and early Monday morning. Have a happy and safe holiday. And for some good holiday reading, check out this Wall Street Journal story about cracking Thomas Jefferson's code. "For more than 200 years, buried deep within Thomas Jefferson's correspondence and papers, there lay a mysterious cipher -- a coded message that appears to have remained unsolved. Until now…" Could this be the next plotline for Nicholas Cage? 

Countdown to Election Day 2009: 124 days
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 488 days

Click here to sign up for First Read emails. 
Text FIRST to 622639, to sign up for First Read alerts to your mobile phone.

Obama meets with business leaders at the White House privately to discuss how "they've been able to create jobs despite the economic doldrums," the AP says. Obama will speak from the Rose Garden afterward. Also, the president will sit down with the AP in advance of his trip to Russia, Italy and Ghana next week. Obama heads to Camp David at the end of his day. 
 
Ahead of the first leg of his trip to Russia, Russia's President Dmitri Medvedev urged Obama to put aside their differences. "The new U.S. administration headed by President Obama is now demonstrating readiness to change the situation, and build more effective ... relations," Medvedev said in a video on the Kremlin Web site, per Reuters. "We are ready for this. ... "Now is not the time to discover who is in a more difficult position or who is tougher. It is time to join efforts. We must improve our relations to solve multiple global problems through joint efforts."

The New York Times: "President Obama returned to the familiar trappings of a political campaign on Wednesday, holding a town-hall-style meeting where he sought to heighten the urgency surrounding the health care debate and dismissed critics who say the issue is too complex to tackle during his first year in office... With members of Congress away for the week, the president had the stage to himself as he promoted his plan to lower the cost of health care and make coverage more accessible. He cast his proposal as a cost-saver, rather than a giant expenditure, saying the economy was not likely to rally without reversing 'the crushing cost of health care.'"  

The New York Daily News: "President Obama played the comforter-in-chief Wednesday when a woman with kidney cancer, no insurance and little hope went looking for help at his health care summit. Obama gave an emotional Debby Smith a hug and a promise, but she also may have given him a hand by making herself a living argument for his health reform."

A new Quinnipiac poll has Obama's job approval at 57%-33%.

Michael Scherer has a piece in the latest issue of Time, in which he writes about Vice President Biden and his role overseeing the implementation of the stimulus. "What really haunts the White House is the fear that much of the money might be spent less efficiently than it could have been... Hanging over all these concerns is the prospect that a second stimulus bill may be needed to bail out states in late 2010 or 2011... Meanwhile, behind the scenes, Biden has ordered his staff to return any call or e-mail from states and localities seeking guidance within 24 hours."

"Determined to advance President Barack Obama's health care agenda, key Senate Democrats are calling for a government-run insurance option to compete with private plans, as well as a $750-per-worker annual fee on larger companies that do not offer coverage to employees," AP's Espo reports. "In a letter outlining the details, Sens. Edward M. Kennedy, D-Mass., and Christopher Dodd, D-Conn., said their revised plan would cost dramatically less than an earlier, incomplete proposal, and help show the way toward coverage for 97 percent of all Americans."
 
Charlie Rangel said on MSNBC that insurance companies are "stealing" from people. "In response to Rangel's comments, Ken Johnson, senior vice president of PhRMA, said: 'We would love to have Mr. Rangel spend a few days in a laboratory talking to some of our scientists who are working to cure cancer, heart disease and Alzheimer's. Perhaps then he would have a better appreciation of what we do. Yes, we agree saving money is important. But so is saving lives.'"

"A Puerto Rican civil rights organization with ties to Supreme Court nominee Sonia Sotomayor on Tuesday turned over a new round of documents to the Senate Judiciary Committee on her affiliation with the group," Roll Call reports. "But the move has done little to appease Judiciary Republicans who are complaining that the information provided represents just a preliminary culling of seven or eight of the 300-plus boxes of documents that they are demanding."

"Gov. Mark Sanford's long and emotional interview with The Associated Press Tuesday appears to have been the final straw for South Carolina's Republican establishment, much of which is now actively seeking his resignation… Fourteen GOP state senators -- more than half the Senate Republican caucus -- have already called for Sanford's resignation, joining a list that, as of Wednesday afternoon, included 11 Republican members of the state House and six of the state's biggest newspapers. And three leading South Carolina Republican officeholders, including the state's two U.S. senators, called Sanford today for what sources close to the lawmakers described as frank conversations about the governor's ability to carry out his job." 
 
The Washington Post's Cillizza: "Sanford's interview with the AP amounted to a political kamikaze mission that seems to suggest that the operative question now is not if he will resign but when he will resign." 
 
The New York Daily News: "He's still crying for you, Argentina!"
 
Politico looks at what it calls the "plagued" GOP class of '94. "As it turns out, the pressures and demands of political life have inflicted devastating damage not only on the Ensign and Sanford families, but on the families of many of the 71 other freshmen who formed the vanguard of the Republican Revolution. In the 14 years since that star-crossed class arrived in Washington espousing an agenda that placed family values at its core, no less than a dozen of its members have been caught up in affairs, sex scandals or in messy separations and divorces from their spouses that, in more than a few instances, led to their political downfalls." 
 
The Washington Post's Balz and Bacon: "The Palin controversy highlights personal enmities and strategic disagreements among Republicans. The victory by Democrat Al Franken over Republican Norm Coleman for a U.S. Senate seat representing Minnesota, though long anticipated, drives home the degree to which Republicans are now a true minority party. Together, the controversies are another double blow to the weakened party… Palin's performance as McCain's vice presidential running mate created a wide gulf in public opinion between those who found her fresh and appealing and those who found her shallow and unready. That she divided Democrats from Republicans was not the surprise. But as the campaign went on, and even more since, she has become a source of division within the Republican Party, at least among GOP strategists, insiders and talking heads." 
 
"Ethics complaints against Gov. Sarah Palin and top members of her administration have cost the state personnel board nearly $300,000 over the past year, almost two-thirds of which appear to be from the Troopergate investigation of the governor," the Alaska Daily News reports, adding, "Palin herself reportedly has incurred over $600,000 in personal legal bills defending against complaints, although she won't provide a breakdown of the expenses or what cases they were for."

NEW HAMPSHIRE: Former Sen. John Sununu made it official yesterday that he would not run for Judd Gregg's seat in 2010. Republicans are now hoping they get their woman in state AG Kelly Ayotte. 
 
NEW JERSEY: Republican candidate Chris Christie said President Obama's planned appearance at a July 16 rally for Gov. Jon Corzine (D) "adds to the challenge" of beating the incumbent, but will not be a game-changer. "Obviously, when Air Force One lands someplace, it gets a lot of attention… Ultimately these races are going to be decided on New Jersey and Virginia issues." Political scientist Peter Woolley, from Farleigh Dickinson University, "said Obama's arrival in July -- rather than waiting until the September and October campaign homestretch -- underscores the need for Corzine to bring Democrats back into the fold." 

VIRGINIA: Noticeably absent from President Obama's health care town hall yesterday in Virginia was Democratic candidate Creigh Deeds. Although he was invited, Deeds spent part of the afternoon addressing secondary school principals in Williamsburg. Despite Republicans' attempts to tie Deeds to the national Democratic Party agenda (the union card check bill, cap-and-trade) Deeds "has been just as busy insisting he wants to stick to state issues that relate directly to the governor's portfolio."

His communications director later denied that Deeds was "distancing himself from President Obama." Already, the President has "spoken to Sen. Deeds on the phone and has signed an email sent to the DNC lists. I am certain there will be more opportunities."

Republican gubernatorial candidate Bob McDonnell challenged state Sen. Creigh Deeds (D) to a series of 10 debates between now and the November election. Said the Deeds camp: "Creigh is eager to go out and debate Bob McDonnell, but we're going to do it on independent terms." A Richmond Times-Dispatch blogger notes that in 2005, Bob McDonnell was also invited to participate in seven debates when running for attorney general against attorney Steve Baril. At the time, McDonnell's campaign accused Baril of "grandstanding."

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Another poll is out showing public support for a public/government option. A Quinnipiac poll today shows 69% support a public/government run option. Only 28%, though, say they'd opt into it.

This could be because most are happy with their current health insurance, as evidenced in NBC News/Wall Street Journal polling. (Hat tip: Roll Call.)

From NBC's Alex Beinstein and Domenico Montanaro
President Obama is jumping into the New Jersey governor's race, as he's set to appear with incumbent Jon Corzine at a rally at Rutgers University on July 16th, per Politico.

Vice President Biden was with Corzine during his primary election night rally.

From NBC's Danielle Weisberg
In Meghan McCain's most recent Daily Beast contribution, she writes a blog entitled, "Forgive Mark Sanford," in which she makes the argument that "sex scandals ... are private matters that don't affect public policy and shoot down rising political stars."

McCain strives to draw a line for politicians and privacy. The daughter of Sen. John McCain argues, "At the end of the day, a politician's job is to fix our country and take care of the states they represent."

Critics would argue that Sanford, in fact, wasn't taking care of the state he represents. He's governor of a state of more than four million people, disappeared for four days, during which time neither staff nor his family could reach him, and it's unclear he left instructions for a chain of command.

McCain makes the point that "what goes on in Governor Sanford's personal life...just isn't relevant to his role as a public official."

But the Sanford affair moves beyond just salacious details of sex and lustful, private e-mails that are the stuff of cable ratings and a pulpit for critics and the righteous. This does go to serving constituents. How can that be done if the public official isn't even reachable?

McCain argues that "we have to stop requiring that our politicians live at such a high level of moral superiority, as if they are infallible creatures."

There's a case for that, but it's tougher to make when a public official lets an affair take precedence over his job.

McCain also takes a shot at Sanford's wife, Jenny Sanford, for her statement. McCain called them a "long, Gospel-quoting press release."

But some women would argue that they projected a different image than the scorned wife standing beside her politician husband as he recanted his sins. Jenny Sanford kicked her husband out, and instead of creating a media blitz of a press conference, released her comments that accomplished just what she wished for, to maintain her dignity, self-respect, and basic sense of right and wrong.

"I don't know if it's the fact that I am younger, or that I just have a more open-minded view of politicians and sex, but it's of very little concern to me who elected officials sleep with," McCain wrote.

But it's of great deal of concern to many, when those politicians abandon their duties to do it.

From NBC's Mike Viqueira
House Minority Leader John Boehner is golfing out at Congressional Country Club today with Tiger Woods. The occassion is the pro-am before the annual tournament sponsored by Woods, known as the AT&T National.

For at least one hole, anyway, all those hours that the 7.5 handicap Boehner logs on the golf course paid off. Boehner sank a 35-foot putt for birdie on the 8th hole. The near-immortal Woods made a mere par.

Many have speculated that the leader's deep tan is a product of his many hours on the course. He often plays Burning Tree Country Club, about a mile down the road from Congressional in Bethesda, Md.

The foursome today included Tony Romo, quarterback of the locally reviled Dallas Cowboys.

From NBC's Athena Jones
At today's White House briefing, White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs highlighted the Wal-Mart letter in support of an employer mandate, calling it an important development and a "pretty big mindset change" from the nation's largest employer. He mentioned Wal-Mart three times.

He also discussed jobless numbers and said he had stated last week that unemployment would hit 10% this month or next month (although we recall him and the president talking about joblessness reaching 10%, we don't recall them having put a timetable on it.)

Gibbs was asked about the 60 votes Al Franken now gives Dems in the Senate and about troop levels in Afghanistan.

He said President Obama spoke earlier with Russian President Dmitri Medvedev about the issues they're going to discuss in the upcoming summit in Moscow, including the reduction of nuclear weapons.

There was a bit of a back and forth about the way the audience and questions were chosen for the health-care town hall in Annandale, Va., which is going on now.

Gibbs was also asked about the CIA interrogation memos, Iran, Honduras and got various questions on health care, including one about what the administration can do to make the policy-making more open. Obama during the campaign said it would be done publicly; Gibbs did not have a real answer to that question.

From NBC's Mike Viqueira
Confirming here that Henry Waxman was admitted yesterday to Cedars-Sinai. His committee spokeswoman in Washington says he "felt unwell" and was "admitted for routine testing."

Waxman remains as a patient at the hospital, but "is feeling much better now," says spokeswoman Karen Lightfoot.

When last seen in Washington, Waxman managed the energy bill through the House for that close vote late last Friday. As chairman of the powerful Energy and Commerce committee, he has jurisdiction over both the energy bill and the health care bill.

Waxman ousted fellow Democrat John Dingell, the longest serving member of the House in American history, as chair of the committee last January.

From NBC's Courtney Kube
The Defense Department's General Counsel is now reviewing the Don't Ask Don't Tell policy, spokesperson Bryan Whitman confirmed today.

Speaking to a group of reporters on his plane yesterday evening, Secretary Robert Gates said that when he really examined the law, he found that "it doesn't leave much to the imagination for a lot of flexibility." 

Gates asked his general counsel to examine whether there is any flexibility in how the military applies the law. The secretary mused about whether the military should "take action on somebody" if the information about their sexuality comes "from somebody who may have vengeance in mind or blackmail or somebody who has been jilted."

"I don't know the answer to that, and I don't want to pretend to," Gates quickly added, calling that "a question of legal interpretation."

The secretary said he and President Obama spoke about "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" last week, and that the issue came up when all of the Combatant Commanders came together to meet at the Pentagon last month. He said the discussion with President Obama focused on how to move forward to change the policy and how to ask Congress to change the law.

Spokesperson Bryan Whitman denied that Gates requested this review because he believes that the law has been enforced unfairly or improperly.

From NBC's Chuck Todd
If you needed any more evidence that Republicans are starting to collectively believe Chris Dodd is the single most vulnerable Democratic senator seeking re-election, here's yet another leaked poll. This survey, conducted by the GOP firm Wilson Research Strategies, was conducted last week on behalf of potential Republican candidate Peter Schiff, a financial commentator who was credited with predicting the current economic downturn.

Here are the bare bones of the survey among 400 likely voters:

-- Dodd leads Schiff 42-38.
-- Former Rep. Rob Simmons (who is already announced and raising money and is the NRSC's preferred candidate) leads Dodd 47-38.

Taking the poll at face value, here's what I see: There is a strong anti-Dodd sentiment out there if a guy with very little name I.D. came end up in a statistical tie with Dodd. It conforms with other public surveys we've seen where Dodd is struggling. Simmons, with a tad more name I.D., not surprisingly, has a bigger lead.

Of course, Democrats are ecstatic that Simmons could end up in a primary with Schiff. But let's stay on the big picture. These numbers are just not good for Dodd. Even if you want to believe this Republican poll has a pinky on the scale in its weighting on behalf of the Republicans, the results are still not comforting to Dodd. He's been on TV already trying to improve his personal ratings and he still trails any generic Republican in a state that is now considered VERY blue.

The White House has been doing plenty of little things to help Dodd, allowing him to be out front on a number of agenda items, including financial regulatory reform and health care. It's amazing how many times I've heard Pres. Obama name drop Dodd at public events.

My educated guess on where this race goes from here: Dodd and his folks will take a serious look at his political standing in the state in November and if progress has been made, it will embolden the incumbent that if he works hard enough, he can win.

But if this early advertising doesn't improve his numbers and voters still have a cynical view of Dodd and whether he was too out of touch on the economic crisis, don't be surprised if the holidays become a time of political soul-searching for Sen. Dodd.  It's a complicated personal issue for Dodd as he doesn't want to be chased out of office like his father, Thomas Dodd, was. And that personal complication is something no political consultant or pollster can understand. BTW, expect the president to be very helpful for Dodd, whether it's campaign help, or offering a job (Peace Corps Director?) in order to provide him a soft landing.

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** The meaning of 60: It lasted 238 days beyond Election Day and eventually entered all four seasons, but the never-ending Minnesota Senate race finally came to a conclusion yesterday, after the state Supreme Court unanimously ruled in Al Franken's favor and after Norm Coleman conceded hours later. Most significantly, yesterday's developments resulted in Democrats obtaining a filibuster-proof majority -- 60 votes -- in the Senate, and Dems want to have him seated by as early as Monday. Having 60 votes will shift the balance of power from the Republican Maine-iacs (Collins and Snowe) to the Joe Liebermans, Ben Nelsons, and Mary Landrieus, meaning that the upcoming fights over health care and energy will be on Democratic turf. Remember that stimulus debate back in February? Does anyone doubt it would have been different (in size and composition) had Franken been in the Senate then? As Rahm Emanuel told the New Yorker then, "No disrespect to Paul Krugman [who wanted a larger bill], but has he figured out how to seat the Minnesota senator?" 

*** The Democrats' challenges: Indeed, had Franken been in the Senate then, you could have probably added some $30-$50 billion to the size of the $787 billion stimulus; that was the cost of getting one more GOP vote, Susan Collins. But Democrats jumping for joy right now might want to temper their enthusiasm a bit. For one thing, conservative/moderate Democrats haven't always been easy votes to get. In fact, in the health-care debate, Dem senators like Max Baucus and Kent Conrad have been cool towards a public/government insurance option. Second, given the health problems of reliable Democratic votes like Ted Kennedy and Robert Byrd, it will be a challenge for Democrats to make sure they have 60 votes at a particular time. Yesterday's Franken news ironically coincided with Byrd's release from the hospital, and it's been more than a year since all 100 senators voted on a bill. So forget Harry Reid; getting to 60 is the hands of medical professionals, not political ones.

*** So what do Republicans do? Their initial spin is, "OK, no excuse time. Democrats have it all -- the House, the White House, and a filibuster-proof Senate." It's almost as if Republicans want to start their "change" campaign now. And that's what will be interesting to watch: Will they completely wash their hands of governing, and simply sit back like a columnist or talk radio host and just criticize, er, campaign? They can't obstruct on a party line vote, but they can rant. But can the Republicans keep this up for over a year and just sit by as a group, or do a handful of them (the Maine-iacs, Voinovich, Mel Martinez, Lugar, maybe Grassley) start going their own way and possibly work with the White House?

*** Other odds and ends: This is now the first time since the 95th Congress (1977-1979) that one party will have had 60 or more votes in the Senate; Democrats had 61 at the start of that Congress. Also, this wasn't the longest contested election. Per NBC's Marcie Rickun, the Senate Historical Office says the 1974 Wyman-Durkin race went through several stages of recount battles before the Senate finally declared the seat vacant at the end of July, 1975. Then, a new election was called, which took place on September 16, 1975. And there was an even LONGER Senate vacancy in Illinois in the 1920s... Finally, what does the future hold for Norm Coleman? Will he run for governor in 2010? Remember that Coleman lost statewide to a wrestler (Jesse Ventura) and a comedian (Al Franken), and probably wouldn't have won the lone race he did win without a death (Paul Wellstone's), though in that race he did beat a former vice president (Walter Mondale). Coleman's concession speech had "I'm running for office again soon" written all over it. The Republicans need a strong candidate for governor thanks to Tim Pawlenty's retirement, and because Coleman stayed and fight, he probably can raise a decent chunk of change nationally.

*** Chuck Schumer's legacy: One other thing worth pointing out in the Franken-Coleman news: In his two cycles as chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, Democrats were able to pick up a whopping 14 Senate seats (six in '06 and eight in '08). And when you add Arlen Specter's switch earlier this year, that means that Democrats went from having just 45 senators in 2006 to 60 today. That's a remarkable two cycles.

*** Back to health care: Turning to an issue that Democrats hope Franken's Senate vote will help them with -- health care -- President Obama holds an online town hall on the subject in Annandale, VA at 1:15 pm ET. Per the White House, questions will come from a live audience, as well as online communities like Facebook, YouTube, and Twitter. Valerie Jarrett will moderate the forum. By the way, don't think it went unnoticed that in the president's congratulatory statement and Franken's victory statement last night, both mentioned energy and health care. Coordinate much?

*** Where in the world is … Manuel Zelaya? Ousted Honduran president Manuel Zelaya traveled to Washington, DC, late yesterday, according to multiple sources. He was in New York earlier yesterday to meet with the United Nations. It's not clear where or who the ousted president met with in Washington last night. But it was made clear to us this morning that Zelaya has since left both Washington and the country. We're efforting more details.

*** Cable catnip, part 2: We knew that Todd Purdum's critical profile of Sarah Palin would get lots of attention. What we didn't know was that it would immediatley start a public war between Bill Kristol/Randy Scheunemann and Steve Schmidt. As Politico's Martin writes, "William Kristol … touched off the latest back-and-forth Tuesday morning with a post on his magazine's blog … pointing a finger at Steve Schmidt, McCain's campaign manager. Kristol cited a passage in Purdum's piece in which 'some top aides' were said to worry about the Alaska governor's 'mental state' and the prospect that the Alaska governor may be suffering from post-partum depression following the birth of her son Trig. 'In fact, one aide who raised this possibility in the course of trashing Palin's mental state to others in the McCain-Palin campaign was Steve Schmidt,' Kristol wrote. Asked about the accusation, Schmidt fired back in an email: 'I'm sure John McCain would be president today if only Bill Kristol had been in charge of the campaign. After all, his management of [former Vice President] Dan Quayle's public image as his chief of staff is still something that takes your breath away,' Schmidt continued." Folks, be sure to read the whole piece; it only gets better…

*** The Sanford story gets weirder: Finally, as he's trying to save his job -- not to mention his marriage -- what was South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford thinking when told the AP yesterday that he had "crossed the lines" with other women besides his Argentine mistress? "'Without wandering into that field we'll just say that I let my guard down in all senses of the word without ever crossing the line that I crossed with this situation,' he said, referring to his affair with Chapur." This guy is letting his mid-life crisis play out in public. Meanwhile, the Washington Post chooses to "go there" in a piece about Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer, the once and future governor, delving into the rumors about him.

Countdown to Election Day 2009: 125 days
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 489 days

Click here to sign up for First Read emails.
Text FIRST to 622639, to sign up for First Read alerts to your mobile phone.

Minnesota, your long Senate race nightmare is over.

The Star Tribune: "Al Franken, a satirist known for his biting political humor, is headed to the U.S. Senate, the survivor of an epic legal struggle that opponent Norm Coleman finally conceded he couldn't win."
 
And is Minnesota governor on Coleman's mind... again? "Conceding defeat outside his St. Paul home shortly after the court ruling, Coleman sidestepped questions about whether he would turn his attention to running for governor in 2010. 'We'll talk about the future in short order,' he said."

The Washington Post: "In a unanimous ruling, the court rejected Republican Norm Coleman's legal arguments that some absentee ballots had been improperly counted and that some localities had used inconsistent standards in counting votes. The ruling led Coleman to concede his Senate seat to Franken, who could be sworn in as soon as next week, when the Senate returns from a recess." 

According to NBC's Pete Williams, Minnesota officials intend to hand-deliver the official election certificate to the U.S. Senate this morning. Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty and the secretary of state signed the papers at about 7:15 ET last night. Copies of the documents were faxed to the Secretary of the U.S. Senate last night, and the originals were sent overnight for delivery this morning. This clears the way for Franken to be sworn in when the Senate reconvenes next week, after the July 4th break.

Franken is on the cover of the Boston Globe with the headline: "Franken wins long Minn. battle, gives Democrats a 60th Senate vote.

The New York Times: "It was an oddly abrupt ending to an election contest that had left Senator Amy Klobuchar, a Democrat, handling the state's business alone and had left many ordinary Minnesotans weary of the fight."  

Per NBC's Dax Tejera, Franken holds a victory rally in St. Paul at 1:00 pm ET.

As the AP warns -- channeling the Cook Political Report's Jennifer Duffy from way back before November '08 -- 60 votes doesn't guarantee Dem success. "[N]umbers aren't the same as votes in the Senate. And to enact administration priorities on health care, energy and other issues, Democrats will have to remain as united in support of legislation as Republicans are in opposition, no easy task in an institution where lawmakers weigh regional concerns, ideology and narrow political self-interest as well as party loyalty." 
 
The Hill: "But even as Franken becomes the 60th Democrat in the Senate, health problems could prevent the party from actually being able to field its full team on a given vote. Sen. Robert Byrd (D-W.Va.) was released from the hospital Tuesday after spending a few weeks there -- a stay that included treatment for a staph infection for the 91-year-old incumbent. And Sen. Edward Kennedy (D-Mass.) should also continue to miss time in the Senate as he battles a brain tumor."
 
And note The Hill's analysis -- and chart -- on Dems who've broken with their party, as the party has gotten a greater majority: "At least three dozen vulnerable Democrats have deserted their party during important votes this year -- a move that could bolster their reelection chances but has left Democrats lacking unity."
 
Roll Call warns that Franken's seating -- and No. 60 -- raises the bar for Dems: "On the one hand, 60 is the magic number to beat back a GOP-led filibuster. On the other, Democrats will have no one but themselves to blame if they can't pass President Barack Obama's ambitious plans to rewrite health care, overhaul banking regulations and tackle global warming. And Democratic infighting will likely be the predominant media storyline rather than the partisan gridlock that has characterized the chamber over the past several years."

President Obama "is taking his pitch for health care revisions to Virginia, holding a town hall forum and fielding questions via the Internet."

Mitch Stewart, director of Organizing for America, told reporters in a conference call today that it will be up to the president's supporters to pressure lawmakers into action on health care, NBC's James Rankin notes. "One of the roles that we think we're uniquely positioned to play as the president's grassroots operation is to draw a very direct line from what's happening in Washington D.C. to local communities across the country," Stewart said.

The Boston Globe profiles "the face of the insurance industry in Washington." The Globe describes her as "a slight, soft-spoken former AFL-CIO employee benefits director with a penchant for data-driven logic. She has the confidence and intellectual agility of a skilled debater, but prefers to dwell on areas of agreement. On healthcare, Karen Ignagni often sounds like the lifelong Democrat that she is… It is no accident that Ignagni is the chief executive of America's Health Insurance Plans, the main health insurance lobby, at a time when a popular new Democratic president is planning a sweeping healthcare overhaul. Insurance executives believe this may be a life-or-death moment: If Congress creates the strong government insurance option that liberals want, insurers say they would be unable to compete and would eventually go out of business."

The AP notes that U.S. involvement in Iraq did not end yesterday and will continue for many years. Obama said yesterday, "Iraq's future is in the hands of its own people. And Iraq's leaders must now make some hard choices necessary to resolve key political questions."

"Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. emerged as a canny strategist at the Supreme Court this term, laying the groundwork for bold changes that could take the court to the right even as the recent elections moved the nation to the left," the New York Times writes. "The court took mainly incremental steps in major cases concerning voting rights, employment discrimination, criminal procedure and campaign finance. But the chief justice's fingerprints were on all of them, and he left clues that the court is only one decision away from fundamental change in many areas of the law. Whether he will succeed depends on Justice Anthony M. Kennedy, the court's swing vote. And there is reason to think that the chief justice has found a reliable ally when it counts."

"The Supreme Court will have a new look -- and perhaps a new member -- but the same right-of-center tilt when the justices return in late summer to deal with unfinished business about money in campaigns," AP writes. "Some justices will change seats with the retirement of Justice David Souter, with the more senior justices closer to the center of the bench. But the conservatives still should be able to muster majorities in the areas of civil rights and campaign cash."

Politico's Martin looks at the fallout from the Vanity Fair piece that exposed rifts between the McCain-Palin camps. "Rival factions close to the McCain campaign have been feuding since last fall over Palin, usually waging the battle in the shadows with anonymous quotes," Martin writes. "Now, however, some of the most well-known names in Republican politics are going on-the-record with personal attacks and blame-casting." The players include on one side Steve Schmidt -- who ran McCain's campaign -- Nicolle and Mark Wallace against Bill Kristol and Randy Scheunemann. How about this bomb lobbed by Schmidt after Kristol criticized Schmidt in a blog post: "I'm sure John McCain would be president today if only Bill Kristol had been in charge of the campaign. ... After all, his management of [former Vice President] Dan Quayle's public image as his chief of staff is still something that takes your breath away."
 
Palin says she can beat Obama... in running: "In a recent interview with Runner's World, the governor of Alaska expressed how she'd do in a race against President Obama. 'If [it] were a long race that required a lot of endurance I'd win,' she said, boasting that while she may lack the physical strength to take on the President, she could outlast him by sheer will power. 'I betcha I'd have more endurance,' she said. 'If you ever talk to my old coaches they'd tell you, too. What I lacked in physical strength or skill I made up for in determination and endurance.'" Is that a metaphor or what? No matter how hard some try, she won't go away...

Meanwhile… "In an interview with The Associated Press, Sanford admitted to as many as seven meetings with Maria Belen Chapur since 2001, including five during the year Sanford has said he was engaged in a romantic relationship with her. Further, the two-term Republican governor said he had casual encounters with other women, but that he did not have sex with them. Those encounters happened, he said, outside the United States but before he met Chapur." And: "Sanford's wife, Jenny, discovered the affair in January when she discovered a letter he had written her. Sanford told the AP he asked his wife to visit Chapur with him several times, but she refused. In the interview, Sanford called Chapur his 'soul mate,' but said he is trying to fall back in love with his wife."
 
The New York Post: "SC Gov: My harem of honeys."

The National Republican Congressional Committee is going up with a TV ad hitting Democratic freshman Rep. Tom Perriello (VA) for voting for the energy bill. The ad is part of a media campaign (radio, Web ads) targeting other Dems who voted for the legislation, including Reps. Boucher (VA), Markey (CO), Space (OH), and Kilroy (OH).

NEW JERSEY: New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine is still behind GOP candidate Chris Christie, but he has "closed the gap a bit," according to a new poll from Farleigh Dickinson-PublicMind. The poll found that 45% favor Christie, while 39% prefer Corzine, with 14% undecided. Despite the tightened margin between the two, "only one in five voters said they believe New Jersey is on the right track, and 54 percent said their view of Corzine is unfavorable."  
 
NEW YORK: "Rep. Carolyn Maloney has decided to take on Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand in the 2010 Democratic primary, refusing to bow to party leaders who want her to stay out, the Daily News has learned. 'She's definitely decided to run,' said a senior Maloney adviser, speaking on condition of anonymity. 'She's in it.'"
 
"Hoping that money talks, Matthew Doheny (R), an investment banker who wants to run in the yet-to-be-scheduled special election to replace Rep. John McHugh (R-N.Y.), opened a campaign account this week and dropped $500,000 of his own money into it," Roll Call reports. "Doheny has also hired Brendan Quinn, a top Republican strategist in New York who is the former executive director of the Empire State GOP." 
 
PENNSYLVANIA: "Former National Constitution Center President Joe Torsella (D), who ended his Senate campaign after Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter defected from the Republican Party and became a Democrat, endorsed Specter on Tuesday."