What follows is a rough transcript of NBC News Chief White House Correspondent and Political Director Chuck Todd's interview with President Obama today from Russia. The president discusses who's really in charge in Russia, its influence on Iran, the economy, Sarah Palin -- even Michael Jackson and why he mentioned Capitols' star Alexander Ovechkin in his speech.

NBC'S CHUCK TODD: Mr. President, thanks.

PRESIDENT OBAMA: Thank you.

TODD: So yesterday, when asked about who ran Russia... who's really in charge - Medvedev or Prime Minister Putin, you kind of dodged the question and you noted you hadn't met Prime Minister Putin. You've met him now. Has your answer changed about who runs Russia??

Video: NBC's Chuck Todd talks to President Obama about improving relations between the U.S. and Russia as well as the current state of the economy, Sarah Palin's resignation and Michael Jackson.

OBAMA: Well, my answer yesterday continues to be my belief, which is they've got a president, they've got a prime minister, both have significant roles in the government. They cooperate and work very closely together. They're political allies.

My suspicion is they consult with each other before they make significant decisions.

I have said publicly before that I have a favorable impression of President Medvedev. In interactions with me, he has been professional and straightforward. He's followed through on his commitments.

This morning I had my first meeting with President Putin - Prime Minister Putin... 
 
TODD: And you've done that three times... Freudian or not Freudian?

OBAMA: No, I don't think it's Freudian. He used to be president and so... my impression of the prime minster is that he is strong, he cares deeply about Russia, he has understandable concerns about Russia's role in the world and I think he has suspicions about the United States. He was very gracious in our meeting and suggested that he wanted to see additional cooperation.

TODD: Does he still have on foot in the Cold War past?

OBAMA: I think he would be the first to admit as somebody who grew up in soviet Russia. He's somebody who knows the pains and the hardships and difficulties of the Russian past and that still informs some of his views. But I will say this: I found him to be very smart and I found him to have a practical bent.

I think the one thing I suspect Prime Minster Putin would completely agree on is that he is not sentimental about how he views the world, and where there are common interests between the United States and Russia, my belief is that we can potentially pursue those common interests to the benefit of both countries.

TODD: on Iran, it's our understanding, your aides said to us it was your number one priority, your top priority. This is what you kept talking about both with Prime Minister Putin and President Medvedev. Yet yesterday in public, President Medvedev couldn't even utter the word Iran, he kept referring to the Middle East. He almost bragged about not saying the name. Are you confident that Russia takes the Iranian threat as seriously as you do?

OBAMA: Well, I'm not sure that they see it exactly the same way. They've had an ongoing diplomatic relationship and commercial relationships with Iran for the last 30 years and we have not. So obviously they view Iran differently. Iran's also a neighbor of theirs.

Video: President Obama is in Russia meeting with Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev to work out an agreement for the U.S. and Russia to cut nuclear stockpiles by the end of the year. Guest host Alison Stewart is joined by author Joe Cirincione.

I am persuaded that they do not want to see Iran possess a nuclear weapon, and I think they are concerned about the potentially destabilizing effect of the nuclear arms race in the Middle East and one of the things that we are going to need to explore jointly over the next several months is can we provide a door for Iran to walk through where they say that we are not going to develop a nuclear weapon.

And, you know, Russia can be a very important partner in that process and so you know my hope is that they take not only the threat of nuclear proliferation seriously, which I think they do, but also recognize that this is something that would strengthen their relationship with the United States.

TODD: Do you think you still have some work though, to do to convince them that this is serious? Do you have diplomatic work to do?

OBAMA: Oh well I think that they understand its serious. But--

TODD: But do you have diplomatic work to do?

OBAMA: Understanding - we definitely have some diplomatic work to do because understanding that the situation is serious doesn't automatically translate into the kind of action that leads to the results that we'd like to see.

TODD: I want to move to economy, it's going to come up at the G-8 a little bit. I want to read some various phrases that you've used in your administration. Early on, when you took office, you said the economy was going to get worse before it gets better. Then Larry Summers said we hit bottom to a point. Then we started hearing the phrase green shoots. You predicted, though, higher unemployment. Vice President Biden over the weekend said the team misread the economy. And then yesterday, Prime Minister Brown was saying that the recession might get worse. So let's erase those words. What's the state of the economy? Is it getting better? Is it getting worse? Are there green shoots?

OBAMA: Here is my assessment and I think this assessment has been fairly consistent. We haven't always gotten the numbers right but I think the general overview is right. We went through an economic tsunami that was far worse than anything we've gone through since the Great Depression. And even early on I think we did not see the full magnitude of what was going to happen.

TODD: By the way, are you concerned you're not getting good data from your team or is this just a misread?

OBAMA: No, no, no, well I would actually rather than say misread we had incomplete information. We came in January 20th. It was only after the first quarter numbers came in if you recall that suddenly everybody looked and said the economy shrank six percent. So it was happening much more rapidly at an accelerated pace than the projections out there at the time. But just to focus on what has happened.

An economic tsunami hit. And there is a massive amount of damage that has been done. To the banking sectors, to individual homeowners, people's 401(k)s. A lot of wealth was removed out of the system and what we have successfully done is to staunch the bleeding.

In the finical sectors companies can go out and borrow. The rates are a little higher than that were but you've unfrozen those credit markets. You are seeing some recovery in some sectors of the housing market. So what you have is no longer the complete free fall that we had back in January or February.

TODD: So free fall, that idea was a correct assessment.

OBAMA: That has stopped.

TODD: And green shoots, that was a correct assessment?

OBAMA: Well what I would say is that in some areas you are seeing the economic engine turn. But what we always knew was that a. this recession was going to be deep b. it was going to last for a while and c. even when the economy pulls out of recession that you are going to see jobs emerging only at the end of that process rather than the beginning.

Now, this is my number one concern is how are we a. going to make sure that the people are getting back to work but b. how do we put the economy on a strong enough footing so that once we emerge out of the recession and the economy is actually on the uptick that it is creating the kinds of jobs and prosperity that we need. And that is why energy is so important, that why healthcare is so important, that's why improving out education system is so important.

That is why ultimately getting our fiscal house in order over the medium and long term is so important.

TODD: So I'm getting the, I better start moving along. I've got a whole round of quickies. You're a political junkie. Just give me your reaction to this Sarah Palin stuff.

OBAMA: Well I think a lot of people were surprised obviously she has generated a lot of attention. She has a fiercely loyal constituency within the Republican Party and in the conservative movement but she says that this is something that is best for her family and I respect that because--

TODD: She compares her leaving office to your leaving office early. Fair or unfair?

OBAMA: I'm sorry, I don't-

TODD: She compares the idea that she's leaving early as no different than your leaving your Senate seat early.

OBAMA: Well, you know, I think this is a decision she made and I respect her decision.

TODD: Al Sharpton has said Michael Jackson's imprint, sort of being able to crossover from a black audience to a white audience, helped pave the way for Oprah Winfrey, Tiger Woods, and you. Do you buy that argument?

OBAMA: You know, what I do believe is that black sports figures and black entertainers helped to create a comfort level with African Americans that had an impact historically dating back to people like Sidney Poitier or Louie Armstrong, up through Michael Jackson. So I would say that he's part of a long line of black entertainers that had an impact on the culture

TODD: I saw Gibbs give me this. We'll just do one last, you mentioned Ovechkin in there, our friend in Washington. Do you think should you have been transparent and said you've never been to a hockey game. Are you going to fix this?

OBAMA: Well, you know, the truth of the matter is that I have watched this guy play and he's outstanding. But you know, Chuck, I grew up in Hawaii, man.

TODD: Don't tell those Blackhawk fans that. You became of bulls fan!

OBAMA: Well, we had basketball in Hawaii. We didn't have hockey. I love watching hockey.

TODD: I'm a Miami boy. I hear you. We had the same thing. I'll really end. Thank you, sir.

OBAMA: Appreciate it. Thanks.

From NBC's Alex Beinstein
Lots of people are asking if there might be a second stimulus coming down the pipe.

In fact, another Obama adviser makes mention of one: Per Reuters, Obama economic adviser Laura Tyson said at a seminar in Singapore, "We should be planning on a contingency basis for a second round of stimulus. ... The stimulus is performing close to expectations but not in timing." Reuters: "Addressing a seminar in Singapore, Tyson said she felt the first round of stimulus aimed to prop up the economy had been slightly smaller than she would have liked and that a possible second round should be directed at infrastructure investment."

Video: Austan Goolsbee, of the White House Council of Economic Advisors, discusses whether a second stimulus package is needed to pull the country out of recession.

Some other things we missed...
Geoge Got His Gun?
The New York Times: "And so when the library for George W. Bush opens in 2013 on the campus of Southern Methodist University in Dallas, visitors will most likely get to see one of his most treasured items: Saddam Hussein's pistol. The gun, a 9 millimeter Glock 18C, was found in the spider hole where the Iraqi leader was captured in December 2003 by Delta Force soldiers, four of whom later presented the pistol to Mr. Bush. Among the thousands of gifts Mr. Bush received as president, the gun became a favorite, a reminder of the pinnacle moment of the Iraq war, according to friends and long-time associates."

Video: Guest host Alison Stewart reports on how Saddam Hussein's gun might be displayed at President George W. Bush's library.

Obama's Olympic Dreams
ESPN reports that President Obama cut a two-minute video -- shot at the White House -- promoting Chicago's bid for the Olympics, that "was shown during a presentation by Chicago bid leaders at a meeting of the Association of National Olympic Committees of Africa in Abuja, Nigeria." Obama said: If Chicago is selected for this honor, we will ensure that the Olympics and Paralympic Games are a key priority for our nation. ... You can count on our government to work as a committed partner in Chicago's quest to host a great and historic games and strengthen the Olympic movement worldwide. ... As President, I see the 2016 Olympic and Paralympic Games as an opportunity for America to reach out and renew our bonds of friendship around the world -- to welcome the world to our shores with open arms."

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** Obama on Putin: During his second day in Russia, President Obama already has met with Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, chatted with former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev, and delivered a speech on U.S.-Russia relations. In an interview afterward with NBC News, Obama described his first meeting with Putin. "My impression of the prime minister is that he is strong, he cares deeply about Russia, he has understandable concerns about Russia's role in the world, and I think he has suspicions about the United States." Asked whether Putin still has a foot planted in the Cold War, the president replied, "I think he would be the first to admit as somebody who grew up in Soviet Russia, he's somebody who knows the pains and the hardships and difficulties of the Russian past, and that still informs some of his views. But I will say this: I found him to be very smart, and I found him to have a practical bent." More Obama: "[Putin] is not sentimental about how he views the world, and where there are common interests between the United States and Russia, my belief is that we can potentially pursue those common interests to the benefit of both countries."

*** On Iran and the economy: Also in the interview with NBC, Obama discussed Russia's relationship with Iran. "They've had an ongoing diplomatic relationship and commercial relationships with Iran for the last 30 years, and we have not. So, obviously, they view Iran differently." He added, "I am persuaded that they do not want to see Iran possess a nuclear weapon, and I think they are concerned about the potentially destabilizing effect of the nuclear arms race in the Middle East. And one of the things that we are going to need to explore jointly over the next several months is can we provide a door for Iran to walk through where they say that they are not going to develop a nuclear weapon." Turning to domestic issues, Obama was asked whether he misread the economy, as Vice President Biden asserted over the weekend. "Well, I would actually rather than say 'misread,' we had incomplete information. We came in January 20th. It was only after the first-quarter numbers came in, if you recall, that suddenly everybody looked and said the economy shrank 6%." Also, the president seemed to return back to downplaying expectations about the economy's recovery. "What we always knew was that: A) this recession was going to be deep, B) it was going to last for awhile, and C) even when the economy pulls out of recession that you are going to see jobs emerging only at the end of that process rather than the beginning."

Video: President Obama speaks to the graduates of Moscow's New Economic School and outlines his hopes for cooperation between the U.S. and Russia.

*** The revolution -- as well as the speech -- won't be televised: Here's the AP's lead of Obama's speech today in Russia: "President Barack Obama, working to drastically reshape U.S. relations with a skeptical Russia, said Tuesday the two countries are not 'destined to be antagonists.' 'The pursuit of power is no longer a zero-sum game,' Obama said, speaking in the Russian capital to graduates of the New Economic School but also hoping to reach the whole nation. 'Progress must be shared.'" Obama's speech was billed as the third of a series of four major speeches about America's role in the world. The first two: Prague and Cairo. But unlike those two speeches, it's not clear the intended audience even heard the president's words. There were empty seats at the graduation ceremony and very little local media coverage. Indeed, per the AP: "It was carried live on 24-hour news channel Vesti, but not on any of the main, more widely watched Russian TV channels like First Channel, Rossiya, or NTV." By the way, the fourth speech in this series takes place in Ghana this weekend.

*** 'I am a fighter. I thrive on challenge': Meanwhile, Obama wasn't the only American politician to speak to NBC News… In an interview in Alaska with NBC's Andrea Mitchell, Sarah Palin further explained why she's walking away from her job as governor. "I think that some people may not be fully aware of all of the conditions. And it's perplexed me that we have sat down with many reporters, and we have shown them how it's cost thousands and thousands of hours and state time and millions of dollars in state resources to continually send off these frivolous, ridiculous, wasteful ethics violations," she said, adding that her legal bill is about half a million dollars. Asked by Mitchell whether she was tired of the nitty, gritty work of a governor after the presidential campaign, Palin replied, "I am a fighter. I thrive on challenge."

*** That next fish run: Palin on her political future: "I don't know what the future holds. I can't predict what the next fish run's gonna look like, much less what's gonna happen in a couple years. But my focus is on my state still, and it always will be -- and my family and what is best for them. What is best for them is to not run for re-election and to avoid a lame duck, wasteful session in a final year of office." On whether it was a mistake to agree to be John McCain's running mate: "Not in the least. Absolutely not. It was a great honor to stand by a true American hero. I believe in John McCain, I appreciate him, I honor him, and I would've done all that again in a heartbeat." In his interview with NBC, Obama said this about Palin's decision to resign from office: "She says that this is something that is best for her family, and I respect that."

Video: Katrina vanden Heuvel, Sam Stein and Tim Griffin weigh in on Sarah Palin's resignation. Is another shoe about to drop?

*** Dems at 60: Today, it becomes official: Democrats will have a filibuster-proof 60 Senate seats when Al Franken gets sworn in by Vice President Biden at 12:15 pm ET. And as the New York Times and others have pointed out, Franken no longer seems to be the profane comedian. "'I'm ready to get to work, thank you,' Mr. Franken said in a sober monotone on Monday after posing for photographs with Senator Harry Reid, the majority leader. That was about as much of a knee-slapper as Mr. Franken told, at least in public." Meanwhile, with the Dems now at 60, the National Republican Senatorial Committee releases a new Web ad, which states: "The Democrats have total control. No checks. No balances… In 2010, you can hold them accountable."

Video: Kent Jones joins guest host Alison Stewart to take a look at Al Franken's improbable run from comedian to Senator.

*** Hillary watch: Also today, Secretary of State Clinton meets with ousted Honduras President Zelaya.

*** Eight is enough? Looking back at that close 219-212 energy vote from late last month, one thing didn't get the attention it probably deserved: the eight Republicans who voted for the legislation and who helped pass it. Those Republicans were Mary Bono Mack (CA), Mike Castle (DE), Mark Kirk (IL), Leonard Lance (NJ), Frank LoBiondo (NJ), John McHugh (NY), Dave Reichert (WA), and Chris Smith (NJ). What do these folks have in common? They either hail from the coasts (Bono Mack. Castle, Lance, LoBiondo, McHugh, Reichert, and Smith), are thinking about statewide office in blue states (Castle, Kirk), or are joining the Obama administration (McHugh). In short, these are your remaining House GOP moderates, and their ranks will likely decrease by one when McHugh leaves. 

*** Censure time: Thanks to Michael Jackson's death and funeral, Sarah Palin's resignation, and Obama overseas trip, embattled South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford has escaped the media's scrutiny in the past few days. But that doesn't mean his job is still entirely secure. Last night, per South Carolina's The State, members of the state GOP voted to censure Sanford (22 voted to reprimand him, 10 asked for him to resign, and nine voted to support him). "The governor's spokesman, Joel Sawyer, reiterated Monday night after the vote that the governor will stay on. 'The governor fully appreciates the party's position and he intends to work diligently to earn back its trust,' Sawyer said."

Countdown to Election Day 2009: 119 days
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 483 days

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The New York Times: "In a speech intended to highlight his two-day visit, Mr. Obama reached out to national sensibilities here by assuring that 'American wants a strong, peaceful and prosperous Russia" and declaring that 'it is not for me to define Russia's national interests.' Yet he made the case that Russia should join America in curbing emerging nuclear powers like Iran and in promoting greater liberties at home."

"'By no means is America perfect,' the president said in a speech at the New Economic School, a graduate school in Moscow formed after the fall of the Soviet Union to introduce modern market economics to Russia. 'But it is our commitment to certain universal values which allows us to correct our imperfections and to grow stronger over time.'"

  Video: In his speech to the graduates of Moscow's New Economic School, President Obama expresses hope for a resetting of relations between the two countries.

The Washington Post adds, "'There is the 20th-century view that the United States and Russia are destined to be antagonists, and that a strong Russia or a strong America can only assert themselves in opposition to one another,' Obama said. "And there is a 19th-century view that we are destined to vie for spheres of influence, and that great powers must forge competing blocs to balance one another. These assumptions are wrong.'" 

The Wall Street Journal: But Obama "demanded that Russia accept the rights of former Soviet clients Georgia and Ukraine to sovereignty, secure borders and independent foreign policies. He reiterated that Russia's neighbors may join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization if they meet membership criteria. And he said economic success depends on the rule of law." 

Obama also reiterated "his support for efforts to restore Manuel Zelaya to Honduras' presidency --even as he points out that Zelaya

has strongly opposed American policies," the AP says. "In a speech to Moscow graduates on Tuesday, the president says that's evidence that the U.S. does not dictate another country's leaders. The president said of his support for Zelaya: 'We do so not because we agree with him. We do so because we respect the universal principle that people should choose their own leaders, whether they are leaders we agree with or not.'" 
 
(By the way, Hugo Chavez said he blames the U.S. -- but not Obama -- for Zelaya's ouster. Go figure.)

Politico: "The history of relations between Russia and the United States has very many different occasions and events of different, shall we say, color," Putin said, as the two men sat in chairs in front of an ornate fireplace. "There were periods when our relations flourished quite a bit and there were also periods of, shall we say, grayish mood between our two countries and of stagnation. With you we link all our hopes for the furtherance of relations between our two countries."

Back to domestic politics… "The Obama administration and major hospital associations on Monday evening were nearing a deal for about $150 billion in cost savings to help pay for an overhaul of the nation's health care system, with an announcement expected at the White House as early as Wednesday, officials said," the New York Times reports. "If an agreement is finalized, it would be the latest step in an on-going effort by the White House to win concessions from major health industry groups to help pay for legislation aimed at providing health insurance to all Americans. Democrats are hoping to keep the cost of the overhaul at about $1 trillion over 10 years."

"Labor unions and other progressive organizations are taking aim at the nation's premier business lobby: the U.S. Chamber of Commerce," Politico writes. "One effort is being led by the Service Employees International Union, which is attacking the Chamber's history of opposing legislation aimed at helping the working class. Its campaign has two goals: to counter the Chamber's messages and its motives

The Hill looks at the threat that Democratic centrists pose to Obama's agenda. "Half a dozen members of the Senate Democratic Conference pose the biggest threat to President Obama's agenda, giving Senate Republicans a fighting chance to block the administration's major expansions of government. GOP leaders have begun reaching out to these centrists, hoping they will buck their party on Obama's two biggest initiatives: healthcare reform and climate change legislation." They include: Sens. Ben Nelson, Joe Lieberman, Mary Landrieu, Evan Bayh, Blanche Lincoln, and Mark Pryor.  

Liberal groups like the AFL-CIO and the SEIU are lobbying for a new stimulus. 

But it's not likely to happen any time soon, Roll Call writes. 
 
"By the end of this week, House Democrats may have answered the biggest question looming in the healthcare debate – how they plan to pay for their overhaul," The Hill writes. "Leadership aides say they will introduce a bill by Thursday or Friday, in preparation for votes in committee next week. And that bill, they say, will include a way to pay for the bill."

 Video: President Obama wants a health care reform bill on his desk by October, but resistance from the industry is a big reason why that may not happen. Sens. Bernie Sanders and John Barrasso discuss on the "Ed Show."

Though the timeline for health care has seemed like it would be pushed back, Sen. Max Baucus guaranteed that legislation would hit the floor before the August recess. He said: "Clearly. Not a question… Everything's a step at a time. We're ready when we're ready. We're getting there." 

Murtha Watch: "For the past several years, Rep. John Murtha (D-Pa.)

has funneled more than $3 million in earmarks to a company in his district to build an underwater 'swimmer detection' sonar system for the Navy to use to protect its docks and ships. But the company, KDH Defense Systems, sews bulletproof vests. It had never built a sonar system and had no expertise in sonar engineering. The sonar project was to be the first product of a new 'startup' company."

Here's Politico's take on last night's censure of South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford: "The South Carolina Republican Party voted to censure Gov. Mark Sanford Monday -- rather than call for his resignation -- an outcome that makes it likely the GOP governor will be able to weather the storm surrounding his extramarital affair and remain in office."

Video: Republicans took to the Sunday morning talk shows to comment on Gov. Sarah Palin's, R-AK resignation, and they are not sure it's a good political move. In addition, GOP leaders were calling on Gov. Mark Sanford, R-SC, to resign, but he was resisting.

Limbaugh on Palin: "As far as I know, nobody in Palin's camp or Palin herself has said what the hell this is about and why she's doing this… If Sarah Palin has any desire to do a TV show, to do speeches, to raise money, to earn money - whatever it's for - if she has any desire for a future, be it in politics, be it in media or whatever, she's going to have to do it in the Lower 48," he said. "She cannot do it in Alaska… These people saying that she's an instant target because she quit, that's just inside-the-Beltway formulaic and she's not that. If anything this woman, her m.o. is outside-the-box and not formulaic… All I know, is that she is going to continue to fire-up people in the conservative Republican base as often as she speaks to 'em."

With Democrats now at a fillibuster-proof 60 Senate seats, Roll Call writes, "Earlier rumors of GOP-led delay tactics to stall President Barack Obama's first high-court nomination [of Sonia Sotomayor] now appear all but dead, as the Judiciary Committee prepares to launch a week of confirmation hearings on July 13."

The Democratic Governors Association announced that it raised a record-breaking $11.6 million in the first six months of this year. Per a release, "The DGA's previous fundraising record for the period from January 1 to June 30 came in 2008, a year that year featured 11 gubernatorial races, four of which were highly competitive." There are just two gubernatorial contests this year -- in New Jersey and Virginia.

NEW JERSEY: Although it remains to be seen whether he'll accept her support on the campaign trail, New Jersey candidate Chris Christie, (R) will not be making a Palinesque choice of running mate. The Newark Star Ledger reports that both Christie and Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine will "stay away from the kind of controversy Palin sparked last year on the presidential ticket."  
 
NEW YORK: Republicans are hopeful about their chances in NY-29, as Republican Corning, N.Y. Mayor Tom Reed is set to take on incumbent Dem Eric Massa. Massa won by just two points in 2006. 
 
VIRGINIA: Will Sarah Palin be the next high-profile Republican to campaign for Virginia gubernatorial candidate Bob McDonnell?

After Palin's resignation announcement last week, RNC Chairman Michael Steele released a statement saying Palin is "an important and galvanizing voice" who will help GOP candidates in Virginia and New Jersey this year. McDonnell recently got a little help from his friends, Gov. Haley Barbour of Mississippi and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, which makes the Washington Post wonder whether Palin will be next.

From NBC's Ken Strickland
As congressional Democratic leaders return from their holiday recess, they faces a daunting task of trying to pass a massive health-care reform bill in the next 20 legislative days (or four weeks). To meet President's Obama request to have a bill on is desk in October, leaders hope that each chamber can pass its version of the bill before the August summer recess. But it will be tough road.

While there are five committees in Congress writing the bill, (three in the House, two in the Senate), not one of them has finished a version that's ready for votes on the floor. Draft language is being circulated, but the most significant and controversial parts of the legislation -- the so-called "public option" and how to pay for it -- remain unresolved.

Video: Dr. Nancy Snyderman discusses the health care battle with former senator Tom Daschle.

The challenge will be even harder in the Senate. While the three House committees are moving together on a single track, the two Senate panels are miles apart at this point. And any hope of truly bipartisan bill appears to rest exclusively within the Senate Finance Committee.  

Here's the timeline on how the congressional leaders hope to finish the bill, according to senior leadership aides of both sides of the rotunda.

THE HOUSE
Starting this week, the House meets for four weeks before the August break. Over the next two weeks, the committees will finalize their bills, and try to bring a single bill to the floor and vote for passage in the fourth week (approx. July 27th).

THE SENATE
Starting this week, the Senate meets for five weeks before summer recess. The leadership is planning to spend the fifth week (Aug. 3rd) on Sotomayor floor debate and vote. And it hopes to spend the two previous weeks on Sotomayor (July 20 & 27), as well as debating and voting on the health-care reform bill.

This essentially gives the two committees (Health and Finance) two weeks to finish their bills and merge them into one bill before taking it to the floor.

The Finance Committee is THE committee to watch. If the committee gives up its efforts for a bipartisan bill, it will likely trigger Dem leaders to use a procedural tool called "reconciliation." That would prevent a GOP filibuster and allow Dems to push a bill through with a simple 51 majority vote. (That said, reconciliation involves a complex set of rules that could still make for an perilous road to final passage.)

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Appearing somber -- and not cracking any jokes -- Sen.-elect Al Franken, a former Saturday Night Live star and liberal talk radio host, said while there's been a focus on the number 60, he's focused on another number.

"I see myself as the No. 2 senator from Minnesota," Franken said, standing beside Majority Leader Harry Reid, who spoke prior to Franken. Franken, who will be sworn in tomorrow at 12:15 p.m. ET by Vice President Biden, will become the junior senator from Minnesota.

Sen. Amy Klobuchar is that state's senior senator.

Video: TODAY's Meredith Vieira talks with former "Saturday Night Live" actor Al Franken about his position as Senator-elect after more than 200 days of legal wrangling.

Reid, who has the pressure on him now to hold a sprawling caucus, challenged Franken -- a likely reliably liberal vote -- to stay in line.

"I expect him to help deliver on the change this country is demanding," Reid said, citing health care, energy and the economy. "I'm confident Sen.-elect Franken will make a difference."

Reid also challenged Republicans to not just be "the Party of 'No'."

"Moving America forward will still require the cooperation of Republicans," Reid said, adding that Democrats "don't want to ram legislation through this body."

But, he added that Franken's election does not "adbicate" Republicans of the responsibility to govern. "I would hope the 'Party of 'No'' is coming to an end," Reid said.

Franken had no problem avowing the issues Reid spoke of. Franken said tops on his agenda would be: better health care for residents of his state, wages, education, and an "energy policy that creates jobs" and "addresses climate change" and that "is going to wean us from our dependence on foreign oil."

"America's best days are ahead of it," Franken said, adding, "I'm ready to get to work."

From NBC's Mark Murray
The liberal-leaning group Americans United for Change says it will be airing TV ads that thank House Democrats for voting for the energy/climate bill that recently (and narrowly) passed the House of Representatives.

The advertisements, budgeted at around $150,000, will run in several congressional districts -- including Mary Jo Kilroy's (OH), Betsy Markey's (CO), Baron Hill's (IN), Ben Chandler's (KY), and Rick Boucher's (VA).

Here's one of the ads: "Last month, Congressman Chandler voted to meet President Obama's challenge to create millions of clean energy jobs -- not in India or China, but right here, in America."

[Youtube:EP6UYEK_lno]

From NBC's Mark Murray
Forget Democrats and the Mainstream Media. What are conservatives -- the same folks who cheered her on during the presidential contest -- saying about Sarah Palin's decision to resign as governor, at least as it relates to a future presidential bid?

In short, their conclusion is similar to everyone else's: It doesn't make much sense. The big exception is the Weekly Standard's Bill Kristol, who calls her Friday announcement a potentially "shrewd" move.

Below is a snapshot of the commentary coming from conservatives:

The Weekly Standard's Fred Barnes: "Forget about Sarah Palin as the Republican presidential candidate in 2012 and probably ever. She may have no interest in seeking the GOP nomination. But if she does, her chances of winning the nomination have been minimized by her decision to resign as governor of Alaska... I say this reluctantly because Palin, in my view, is the most exciting Republican figure to emerge in decades... But personal magnetism is only one of the legs, or underpinnings, for a successful race for the Republican nomination. The other two are experience in office and enough knowledge of foreign and domestic issues to talk about them persuasively."

Red State's Erick Erickson: "I'm sad that so many people are mad at me for voicing my opinion that she's done with elected politics. I have always supported Sarah Palin. I continue to support her. But that does not change what I think. We should not be invested in the politician or the personality, but the ideas."

The Wall Street Journal editorial page: "Giving up on an executive job a year and a half early isn't the best way to persuade voters you're ready for the more demanding rigors and scrutiny of the White House... Some Alaskans, including many of her admirers, can be forgiven if they conclude she bugged out when the going got rough." Some Alaskans, including many of her admirers, can be forgiven if they conclude she bugged out when the going got rough.

National Review's Rich Lowry: "I think I have pretty well-established credentials when it comes to being charmed by Sarah Palin, but that statement, as a statement, was simply terrible. Rambling and not at all persuasive as an argument for her decision. More Gibson/Couric than GOP convention speech. She shouldn't have said a thing without getting Matt Scully — or some similarly talented speechwriter — on the case first. As to how this decision plays out ultimately, we'll see. There's plenty of time if (as I assume) she wants to run in 2012, and she obviously has plenty of capital with Republicans. But not an auspicious start."

National Review's Rick Brookhiser: "As Cole Porter said, Sarah Palin's got that thing, that special thing that makes the birdies forget to sing, yes she's got that thing — that special thing. Yet she also makes a more than normal share of misjudgments. Are we to accept in an aspirant to the Oval Office cutting short her tour of duty in the Alaska statehouse?"

The Weekly Standard's Bill Kristol: "If Palin wants to run in 2012, why not do exactly what she announced today? It's an enormous gamble - but it could be a shrewd one. After all, she's freeing herself from the duties of the governorship. Now she can do her book, give speeches, travel the country and the world, campaign for others, meet people, get more educated on the issues - and without being criticized for neglecting her duties in Alaska. I suppose she'll take a hit for leaving the governorship early - but how much of one? She's probably accomplished most of what she was going to get done as governor, and is leaving a sympatico lieutenant governor in charge."

From NBC's Andrea Mitchell

WASILLA, Alaska -- The latest Tweet from Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin -- on her time off with the family in Bristol Bay -- where she says they have gone for decades to do commercial fishing:

"Grateful Todd left fishing grnds to join me this wkend; but now he's back slaying salmon & working the kids @ the site; anxious to join 'em!"

She tweeted yesterday that she was going to join the work crew for one day picking fish.

Video: NBC's Andrea Mitchell and Vanity Fair's Todd Purdum talk about the response to Gov. Sarah Palin's resignation and why the Alaska governor decided to step down.

Over the weekend, her lawyer told NBC News that the local FBI office had taken the unusual step of issuing a statement confirming that there is no ongoing federal investigation into Palin's affairs. 

Palin's attorney sought the statement to rebut blogs claiming she resigned because of an impending scandal. Attorney Tom Van Flein says those blogs are defamatory and has threatened to sue media outlets repeating them unchallenged.

Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell, who will replace Palin on July 26th, told NBC Sunday that she first told him of her plan to resign last Wednesday -- two days before her announcement. He believes that the pressure of continuing ethics challenges and mounting bills -- now estimated at more than $500,000 -- contributed to her decision to resign.

Video: Alaska Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell – who will take over for Gov. Sarah Palin when steps down at the end of July – joins NBC's Lester Holt to discuss the former vice presidential candidate's decision.

Palin's attorney also tells us that her legal defense fund has raised approximately $250,000 toward her outstanding legal debt. He stressed that 15 out of 16 ethics challenges against her have been dismissed -- including a challenge to the way she set up her legal defense fund.

In addition to Palin's book deal, she is being offered lucrative speeches and has been approached about talk shows. She is expected to earn millions on the book and other deals once she is out of state government -- after July 26.

From NBC's Alex Beinstein
The Republican foreign-policy strategist Henry Kissinger spoke to the German publication Der Spiegel. Here are a few nuggets:

 
SPIEGEL: Despite the failure of Versailles, this Wilsonian idea is remarkably prevalent. Is our affinity to the ideals of democracy perhaps naïve?

Kissinger: The belief in democracy as a universal remedy regularly reappears in American foreign policy. Its most recent appearance came with the so-called neocons in the Bush administration. Actually, Obama is much closer to a realistic policy on this issue than Bush was.

SPIEGEL: Do you think it was helpful for Obama to deliver a speech to the Islamic world in Cairo? Or has he created a lot of illusions about what politics can deliver?

Kissinger: Obama is like a chess player who is playing simultaneous chess and has opened his game with an unusual opening. Now he's got to play his hand as he plays his various counterparts. We haven't got beyond the opening game move yet. I have no quarrel with the opening move.

From NBC's Ken Strickland
The current plan is for Al Franken

to be sworn in tomorrow on the Senate floor at about 12:15 pm ET. Vice President Biden is expected to do the honors in his role of "President of the Senate."

Also today, Franken and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid will have a photo-op in the Capitol at 1:00 pm ET.

From NBC's Savannah Guthrie

A U.S. official in Moscow says there will be a joint U.S.-Russian statement today on the thorny issue of missile defense.

Also, the framework for the new START treaty will include numbers. We're efforting more details.

*** UPDATE *** Below is the joint statement. In short, there's no real agreement on this issue, but they say they'll keep talking.

In accordance with the understanding reached at the meeting in London on April 1, 2009, Russia and the United States plan to continue the discussion concerning the establishment of cooperation in responding to the challenge of ballistic missile proliferation. Our countries are intensifying their search for optimum ways of strengthening strategic relations on the basis of mutual respect and interests.

We have instructed our experts to work together to analyze the ballistic missile challenges of the 21st century and to prepare appropriate recommendations, giving priority to the use of political and diplomatic methods. At the same time they plan to conduct a joint review of the entire spectrum of means at our disposal that allow us to cooperate on monitoring the development of missile programs around the world. Our experts are intensifying dialogue on establishing the Joint Data Exchange Center, which is to become the basis for a multilateral missile-launch notification regime.

The Russian Federation and the United States of America reaffirm their willingness to engage in equitable and mutually beneficial cooperation with all interested countries that share their assessments of the danger of global proliferation of ballistic missiles. We call upon all countries having a missile potential to refrain from steps that could lead to missile proliferation and undermine regional and global stability.

From NBC's Albert Oetgen
MOSCOW, Sunday, July 5th -- It's a very gray day in this very gray city.

A planeload of reporters arrived here this afternoon in advance of President Obama's first trip to Russia as chief executive, full of anticipation and American preconceptions about this vast and complicated land.

Video: Mark Ames, who lived in and reported in Russia, former ambassador to the Soviet Union Jack Matlock, and NBC News' Savannah Guthrie in Moscow talk about Obama's trip to Russia.

As the 767 widebody banked on its final approach to Vnukovo Airport, acres and acres of dull concrete high-rise apartment buildings loomed in the middle distance, echoes of Soviet-era regimentation and Cold War discipline, reminders that the blinding speed of change in the 21st Century -- of any century -- can never erase the indelible effects of history and experience.
 
Inside the terminal, reporters were hustled through customs. Efficient uniformed clerks rarely made eye contact, conjuring the persistent, lingering feelings of mistrust that aging Baby Boomers learned during the early days of the Cold War when, as impressionable schoolchildren, they were taught the absurd lesson that crouching under classroom desks could somehow protect them from nuclear fallout.

The walk from customs to the busses assembled to take the press corps to a downtown hotel involved a series of 90-degree turns monitored by escorts. The route coursed through a small crowd of Muscovites waiting for family and friends to make their way out of the maze of corridors leading to the airport gates.

One of the turns made no sense. There was a clear diagonal shortcut through the crowd. But when two reporters tried to take it, armed police instantly materialized, herding them back onto the pre-assigned route with the brutal efficiency and mind-numbing lack of imagination that over empowered Transportation Safety Administration police display every day in American airports.
 
Imperialist powers, it turns out, have much in common, regardless of the current state of their affairs or the mercurial patterns of history. The grayness of Moscow, and its uniformed police, tracks perfectly with the Washington summer to date.

Oetgen is the managing editor of NBC News' Washington Bureau

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** Palin-palooza: So much for an uneventful July 4 holiday weekend, huh? The news Friday that Sarah Palin not only won't run for re-election in 2010 (which wasn't much of a surprise), but would also be resigning from office later this month (a complete shocker) was the latest drama to surround the former Republican presidential running mate. The questions on everyone's mind: Does this mean she WON'T be running for president in 2012? Or WILL she be running? And if so, does resigning 2 ½ years into her first statewide political term strengthen her hand or seriously weaken it? Well, in a July 4 posting on her Facebook page, she sure sounded like someone with dreams of the Oval Office dancing in her head. "[T]hough it's honorable for countless others to leave their positions for a higher calling and without finishing a term, of course we know by now, for some reason a different standard applies for the decisions I make," she wrote. Palin also fired off this Twitter message yesterday: "Critics are spinning, so hang in there as they feed false info on the right decision made as I enter last yr in office to not run again..."

*** Not Obama or Nixon: When she wrote that it's "honorable for countless others to leave their positions for a higher calling," Palin might very well have been referring to Obama, who began running for president just after two years into his first U.S. Senate term. But there is one big difference between the two: Obama's national reputation was pristine from the moment he gave that 2004 convention speech to his presidential announcement, while Palin's image (after the Bristol-Levi breakup, the feud with David Letterman, and that devastating Vanity Fair piece) is more of mixed bag. On Sunday, the New York Times also compared her decision to resign to Richard Nixon's exodus from politics before winning the '68 presidential election. But the difference between the two is that Nixon served eight years as vice president, two years as a U.S. senator, and four years as a congressman, while Palin has served in statewide office for just 2 ½ years. Indeed, Palin's decision to resign might only reinforce the perception that she's not a serious politician with the policy chops to be president in these serious times.

Video: William Kristol of "The Weekly Standard" talks with TODAY's Natalie Morales about the likelihood of a Sarah Palin run for the White House in 2012.

*** And I did it my way: All that said, the normal political rules don't seem to apply to Palin. Once removed from office, she will be flooded with requests for speaking engagements, and will turn mundane GOP congressional events into exciting rallies that draw her most ardent supporters (as well as those turning out to see a potential car wreck). In short, Palin's resignation was all about self-interest -- improving her financial standing and her political standing as the Republicans' biggest celebrity. And given her appeal to the GOP base, she knows she can do this her way. Palin definitely has a future as a conservative political celebrity, but does she risk her influence on a presidential run? She could end up having a parallel career to a Pat Buchanan -- active commentator with a loyal following and an occasional (but not successful) presidential candidate. Who has more to fear from Sarah Palin? Mitt Romney or Tim Pawlenty? Or Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity?

*** Geography and the calendar: There are two other legitimate reasons for Palin's resignation, if she's planning a presidential bid. One is geography. As political analyst Charlie Cook tells First Read, running for president was hard enough for Bill Clinton (in '92 from Little Rock) and for George W. Bush (in '00 from Austin), and it's probably even harder now that campaigns have begun earlier and have become more expensive. So just think about the challenges of running for president in 2012 from Juneau. "Someone might be an effective governor or a serious candidate but not both," Cook says. Second, Obama launched his presidential bid in Feb. 2007. If she used that same time frame, Palin would announce in Feb. 2011 -- just one month after she would have completed her first term. That's not nearly enough time to make money in the private sector, or build a national campaign team through considerable political travel in the Lower 48. But writing in Slate, Bruce Reed noted that politicians who have quit their day jobs to run for president (Bob Dole, Mitt Romney, Bill Bradley, John Edwards) haven't been all that successful. Running while still holding office (Clinton, Bush 43, Obama) does still appear to be the better way to go.

*** Just askin': Who thought, as of early last week, that Sarah Palin would be resigning from office before Mark Sanford (we think)?

*** Obama in Russia: Turning to non-Palin news, President Obama already has arrived in Moscow, laid a wreath at the Tomb of the Unknown Russian Soldier, and met with Russian President Medvedev at the Kremlin. At 10:50 am ET, the two leaders hold a joint press conference (although this appears to be running late). And afterwards, Obama greets U.S. embassy personnel and attends a dinner hosted by Medvedev. Of course, there will be plenty of glad-handing when Obama and Medvedev announce their nuclear-arms agreement of sorts. But the fine print needs to be worked out. And, frankly, it seems as if things already aren't going as well as perhaps the Obama administration originally hoped it would. In the last few days, in fact, it has been lowering expectations for this meeting. The two will announce the easy stuff today, including a framework for continued negotiations on nuclear arms reduction, as well as official Russian permission to use their air space for our military campaign in Afghanistan. But it's the hard stuff -- missile defense and Iran -- that will get most of the attention from the press, and there's little evidence of progress from either side on these issues.

Video: President Obama and his family have arrived in Moscow for a U.S.-Russia summit. NBC's Savannah Guthrie reports.

*** From Russia with love? Perhaps the most interesting aspect of Obama's Russia trip is the semi-cold reception he's probably going to receive. It's not the Cold War, but it's not yet warm. Is it partly cloudy with a chance of cold or partly sunny with a chance of warmth? You decide. Indeed, today's early events were as gray and understated as the grayness of this city right now. The mood of the relationship and the weather do seem to match.

*** The world is flat watch: While the issues are completely unrelated, keep an eye on three hot spots today: China, Honduras, and Iran. All three countries are experiencing some domestic tumult -- ethnic clashes in China, the coup in Honduras, and of course the aftermath of the disputed election in Iran. As Buffalo Springfield famously noted, "There's something happenin' here, what it is ain't exactly clear." Then again, this could simply be a result of the world being flat, so we see and hear about everything now. 

*** $1.4 million a day? Wow. Finally, Congress returns this week from its July 4 recess, and its main work between now and August will be hammering out the details on health-care reform. Be sure to check out today's Washington Post story on the health-care lobbying effort, which notes that the health industry has hired "more than 350 former government staff members and retired members of Congress in hopes of influencing their old bosses and colleagues," and that it's spending more than $1.4 million a day on lobbying. Wow, is there any way to describe this story other than the health-care industry has hired, LITERALLY, an army of lobbyists? (Speaking of lobbyists, Roll Call has an interesting story about which Democratic lobbyists have secured the best access to the White House. Here's a hint: They have ties to Daschle and Gephardt.) In other congressional news, it looks like Al Franken will be seated on Tuesday, and his nameplate outside his office will be installed today.  and

Countdown to Election Day 2009: 120 days
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 484 days

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Roll Call: "Alaska's GOP Gov. Sarah Palin left Republicans and Democrats alike scratching their heads on Friday after the former vice presidential nominee announced she would resign with two years left in her term."

Was money the motivation to quit? The man who will replace her, Alaska Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell, hints at it. "Parnell … said it was costing the State of Alaska about $2 million just to pay for the staff to deal with the records requests from the ethics complaints. 'That was just over the top, and I think she used the word insane in her remarks,' Mr. Parnell said."

The Anchorage Daily News' editorial board on Palin's decision: "Shock was the order of the day Friday when Gov. Sarah Palin announced her resignation… After the shock, confusion. Gov. Palin baffled Alaskans with her explanation that, having decided not to seek a second term, she doesn't want to be a lame duck until December 2010. That explanation is more lame than the duck… She spoke as if she were making a sacrifice for the good of Alaska, but it's hard to see how… [T]he governor's explanation simply doesn't make sense… Sarah Palin is a charismatic leader with a devoted national following and ambition to match. So there's no surprise if she sees a future for herself beyond Alaska. But we thought she'd finish her work on the home front first. She hasn't made clear why she won't."

Video: NBC's Andrea Mitchell explains whether Sarah Palin delivered the proper message to her supporters upon resigning from her position as governor of Alaska.

How intense has the lefty blogosphere gotten? So intense that the FBI felt compelled to take the unusual step to declare that Palin was not under investigation.

Per NBC's Norah O'Donnell, Palin's attorney also released this very tough statement: "[S]everal unscrupulous people have asserted false and defamatory allegations that the 'real' reasons for Governor Palin's resignation stem from an alleged criminal investigation pertaining to the construction of the Wasilla Sports Complex. This canard was first floated by Democrat operatives in September 2008 during the national campaign and followed up by sympathetic Democratic writers… To the extent several websites, most notably liberal Alaska blogger Shannyn Moore, are now claiming as 'fact' that Governor Palin resigned because she is 'under federal investigation' for embezzlement or other criminal wrongdoing, we will be exploring legal options this week to address such defamation. This is to provide notice to Ms. Moore, and those who re-publish the defamation, such as Huffington Post, MSNBC, the New York Times and The Washington Post, that the Palins will not allow them to propagate defamatory material without answering to this in a court of law."

The Washington Post's Dan Balz: "Sarah Palin demonstrated once again yesterday that she is one of America's most unconventional politicians, following an unpredictable path to an uncertain future… Few who have watched Palin doubt her ability to attract attention, command a following and make herself a force, should she choose to run for president. Democratic and Republican strategists agree that she has charisma and a personality that connects with people… But along with those skills have come a host of questions, which began in the days after her vice presidential selection and have continued. They include whether she has the experience and knowledge of the world required of a successful national candidate."

The New York Times' Adam Nagourney: "But if some of her supporters are correct in surmising what she is doing — turning full time to preparing herself, after a tough year, for a presidential campaign in 2012 — it represents a huge gamble, even by the standards of a politician whose short career has been shaped by huge gambles."

Ross Douhat wonders if Palin's biggest mistake was not blinking when McCain asked her to join the GOP ticket. "Had she refused John McCain, Palin would still be a popular female governor in a Republican Party starved for future stars. Her scandals would be the stuff of local politics, her daughter's pregnancy a minor story in the Lower 48, her son Trig's parentage a nonissue even for conspiracy theorists. There would still be plenty of time to ease into the national spotlight, to bone up on the issues, and to craft a persona more appealing than the Mrs. Spiro Agnew role the McCain campaign assigned to her."

And here's Maureen Dowd: "On the shore of Lake Lucille, with wild fowl honking and the First Dude smiling, with Piper in the foreground and their Piper Cub in the background, the woman who took the Republican Party by storm only 10 months ago gave an incoherent, breathless and prickly stream of consciousness to a small group in her Wasilla yard. Gobsmacked Alaska politicians, Republican big shots, the national press, her brother, the D.C. lawyer who helped create her political action committee and yes, even Fox News, played catch-up. What looked like a secret wedding turned out to be a public unraveling as the G.O.P. implosion continued: Sarah wanted everyone to know that she's not having fun and people are being mean to her and she doesn't feel like finishing her first term as governor."

"She can hunt wolves from the air and field-dress a moose, but she fears being a lame duck? Some brickbats over her ethics and diva turns as John McCain's running mate, and that dewy skin turns awfully thin."

The AP writes, "In advance of Obama's departure Sunday, a White House official told reporters the presidents expect to announce progress on negotiations that could lead to a treaty to replace the START I agreement, which expires Dec. 5. On Monday, a senior U.S. official said Obama and Medvedev were prepared to sign an agreement lowering both the number of warheads and delivery vehicles. The official would not reveal specific numbers. All agree that months of tough bargaining lay ahead before a full treaty is ready."

"Presidents Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev end a seven-year hiatus in U.S.-Russian summitry on Monday, with each declaring his determination to further cut nuclear arsenals and repair a badly damaged relationship."

Video: President Obama is set to depart for a summit with Russian leaders with the hope that the U.S. and Russia can enhance a relationship that may have some underlining tension. NBC's Mike Viqueira reports.

The AP also interviewed Obama. Here are the highlights. "He laid down the law to former Russian President Vladimir Putin, who he said needs to 'understand that the old Cold War approaches to US-Russian relations' are outdated," per the Boston Globe. "'Putin has one foot in the old ways of doing business and one foot in the new,' Obama said."

One thing that's fascinating to see when on the ground here in Russia is how the (sort of) state-controlled media depict the United States -- especially the English language Russia TV. The New York Times: "Russians blamed America for supporting the economic reforms of the Yeltsin era and for the social chaos that ensued. They were infuriated by American-backed wars in Yugoslavia and Iraq, by the expansion of NATO eastward and most recently by the Georgian attack on South Ossetia."

The New York Times also notes that in separate interviews, both Obama and Biden have presented engagement with Iran as a necessity.

The AP has a piece about the importance of the next three months in determining the public's sense of whether they are feeling any part of the recovery the administration believes is about to begin. "The pace of the economic recovery heading into the fall — electric smooth or diesel rough — will determine whether Obama can prod Congress on the key features of his agenda with momentum or from a defensive crouch."

Video:

 Eliot Spitzer, former attorney general of New York, Yale University economist Robert Shiller, and hedge fund manager Bill Fleckenstein,  talk about Vice President Joe Biden's recent statements on the economic challenges the administration inherited.

"Vice President Biden acknowledged [yesterday] that the administration underestimated the depth of the economic recession months ago as it prepared a recovery package that is only now beginning to take effect," the Washington Post says. 'We misread how bad the economy was, but we are now only about 120 days into the recovery package,' Biden said on ABC's 'This Week.' 'The truth of the matter was, no one anticipated, no one expected that that recovery package would in fact be in a position at this point of having distributed the bulk of the money.'"

Colin Powell

had praise -- but also criticism -- for Obama in a CNN interview: "[I] think one of the cautions that has to be given to the president -- and I've talked to some of his people about this -- is that you can't have so many things on the table that you can't absorb it all. And we can't pay for it all."

And Roll Call writes how lobbyists are slowly gaining some access to the White House. "Among the lobbyists with the greatest access to the corridors of the West Wing — according to their colleagues — are several who served there under Clinton or dealt closely with the Clintonites during the 1990s. Among these are Chuck Brain of Capitol Hill Strategies, Clinton's last legislative affairs chief; Rich Tarplin of Tarplin Strategies, a health care specialist who was Health and Human Services' legislative affairs director; Joel Johnson of Glover Park Group, a former staffer to ex-Sen. Tom Daschle (D-S.D.) who was a senior Clinton aide; Chris Jennings of  Jennings Policy Strategies, for years Clinton's chief health care guru; and Steve Elmendorf of Elmendorf Strategies, the chief of staff to former House Minority Leader Dick Gephardt (D-Mo.)."

"But K Street sources emphasized that doors in the White House are open not just to favored friends of Obama's minions. 'My sense is they take a very practical view of their interaction with lobbyists, activists and interest groups,' another top Democratic lobbyist said. 'If people can support or promote the president's agenda, there is a very business-like working relationship.'"

The Los Angeles Times curtain-raises the battle to pass the climate/energy bill in the Senate. "[A]s the battle moves to the Senate, Obama faces demands for even more concessions -- including pressure to open the nation's coastlines to offshore oil and gas drilling. The Senate also will take up a series of controversial issues that were glossed over or omitted from the House legislation. Among them: giving the government sweeping powers to approve thousands of miles of new transmission lines to carry electric power to coastal cities from wind turbines in the upper Midwest and solar power generators in the Southwest, regardless of local objections."

Interestingly, the LA Times identifies just three Republicans who might join the majority on energy: the two Maine Republicans (natch) and John McCain.

The New York Times does a piece on the lobbying efforts going on in Maine to convince the state's two moderate GOP senators to support Obama's plan.

Video: Ron Brownstein of the Atlantic Media Company joins the Morning Joe gang to discuss the House's passage of energy legislation – and its prospects for success in the Senate.

 The AP breaks down several proposed health-care plans. 
 
And the wire service also asks, "What if a new health plan set up shop in your town offering coverage at a much lower price than other insurers? If you could save $2,500 on the $12,700 it costs for an average family plan through an employer, would you take it? That's not small change. Now what if the government offered that deal? Would your employer take it?"

But the timeline looks like it's going to be pushed back. Roll Call: "Senate Democratic leaders' hopes of approving health care reform before adjourning for the August recess appear all but dead, with the prospect of meeting President Barack Obama's demand for a bill on his desk by Oct. 15 looking increasingly difficult."

Finally, Roll Call previews Al Franken's first days in Washington. He'll likely be seated midday Tuesday.

"Colin Powell

stuck up for Sonia from the block on Sunday, labeling as bogus the 'reverse racist' charges aimed at Supreme Court nominee Sonia Sotomayor," the New York Daily News writes. "Powell, who's from the same South Bronx neighborhood as Sotomayor, said the first Hispanic woman nominated to the high bench should be confirmed in Senate hearings beginning later this month."
 
"Supporters of Supreme Court nominee Sonia Sotomayor

fanned out across the country last week, organizing local rallies and other events to tout her law and order credentials and build grass-roots momentum for her impending confirmation," Roll Call reports. "Although Democrats in Washington said the Obama administration is not directly involved in the campaign, the events could help Senate Democrats blunt some of the criticism of Sotomayor by conservative groups and Republican Senators."

CALIFORNIA: The special election to replace Ellen Tauscher, who took a job at the State Department, is going to be Sept. 1. "The top contenders, all Democrats, are Lt. Gov. John Garamendi, state Sen. Mark DeSaulnier and state Assemblywoman Joan Buchanan," Roll Call reports.

NEW JERSEY: A former New Jersey Democratic Party leader said questions about Gov. Jon Corzine's (D) ability to retain his party's base resemble fears about Barack Obama as he entered the final stretch of his presidential campaign. "When I was at the Democratic National Convention, there was the same chatter about the Obama campaign and that they didn't have their act together," said former state Democratic Party chairman Tom Byrne. But the rival camp of Chris Christie (R) says Democrats just aren't that into Corzine. "There's a real disconnect between Corzine and voters across the state," said Christie strategist Mike DuHaime, who ran Giuliani's campaign before moving over to the McCain campaign in the general.

NORTH DAKOTA: The state party is trying to get Gov. John Hoeven to run for Senate against Byron Dorgan in 2010.

VIRGINIA: For anyone who was dying to know the origins of Democratic candidate Creigh Deeds' name, the Washington Post has the answer. Like his opponent Bob McDonnell (R), Deeds' actual name is Robert. At the age of 6, though, Deeds started using his middle name, which traces back to David S. Creigh, a distant relative and local Civil War hero, who found a Union soldier ransacking his home, shot him with his own gun and dumped the body down a dry well. "A name that celebrates a hero of the Confederacy isn't the most convenient thing for a guy running for governor of Virginia in 2009," the Post says. "But Deeds said that history is complicated and that he's comfortable with his own."

THE WEEK AHEAD: Obama's fourth major international trip takes him from Russia to Italy to Ghana, Congress is back, Al Franken gets seated and George W. Bush and Nancy Reagan birthdays.

For our mailbox, submit your questions for next week in the comments section below. We might pick yours.

By the way, this is an early Week Ahead, because we, at First Read, are taking tomorrow off. Happy Fourth of July! See you Monday.

From NBC's Alex Beinstein, James Rankin, and Katelin Schartz
The
economic recession has not only hurt individual Americans across the
country; it has also negatively affected state governments, which must
balance their budgets.

June 30 was the end of the fiscal year for
most states, and here's a round up of headlines -- in the last couple
of days -- that shed light on the challenges they're facing:

Alabama
"Recession Delays Alabama Tax Refunds"
120,000 Alabama taxpayers will have to wait for their refunds due to declining revenue.

Arizona
"Brewer Rips Budget, Calls Special Session"
Arizona lawmakers pulled an all-nighter to avoid a government shutdown.

California
"California Ready to Issue IOUs"
California's
epic budget meltdown is grabbing national headlines and forcing the
state to print IOUs to residents waiting on income-tax refunds

Colorado
"Colorado Crisis Worst Since Depression"
Colorado
is accustomed to boom-and-bust economics, but analysts say this budget
crisis is the worst the state has seen in a long time.

Connecticut
Gov. Rell Vetoes Democrats' Budget Proposal

Delaware
"House OKs a Dozen New Tax Initiatives"
Reluctant lawmakers passed a slew of new taxes in order to make up for the states deficit.

Florida
"Florida Drivers, Brace for Impact on Your Wallets"
Florida is trying to close budget deficits by increasing registration and licensing fees for automobiles.

Georgia
It's the start of the new fiscal year, but that only means more challenges for Governor Perdue and legislative leaders when it comes to a balanced budget.

Idaho
"Idaho Ends Fiscal Year with Balanced Budget"
Gov. Butch Otter praised legislators for "making tough decisions" which allowed the state to end its fiscal year without a deficit.

Illinois
"State Budget Vetoed"
The Governor of Illinois has vetoed the budget sent to him by state legislators, saying it would cut vital services.

Indiana
"Budget Brings Good, Bad News for State Schools"
Centrist Democrats joined Republicans in creating a two-year budget that has angered many education advocates.

Iowa
"Iowa Dips into Savings to Balance its Budget"
Iowa's will have to tap into its cash reserves in order to meet requirements set by its balanced budget law.

Kansas
Governor Parkinson Announces Plan To Balance Kansas Budget

Louisiana
"State Budget Year Begins with Cuts"
Louisiana faces steep budget cuts, but not as much as Gov. Bobby Jindal had hoped for.

Maine
State Budget Woes Leading to Court Delays

Maryland
Spending will actually decline next year

Massachusetts
State budget disappoints local lawmakers

Michigan
Bankruptcy may be next for Detroit schools deficit and is considering filing bankruptcy.

Minnesota
Unallotment could leave $7 billion problem in two years
http://www.grandforksherald.com/event/article/id/124834/

Mississippi
Mississippi legislators beat midnight deadline by approving $6 billion budget

Missouri
Missouri currently has a 25-year high employment rate, and this new plan will mean almost 1500 more jobs will be lost when the new program takes effect July 1st.

Nebraska
NU Budget Proposes 4 Percent Tuition Increase

New Hampshire
Budget process most challenging in history for legislators

New Mexico
Governor to cut 470 salaries

North Carolina
N.C. Budget Failts to Draw Consensus

Ohio
Ohio House Passes seven-day temporary budget extension while slots plan remains blocked

Oklahoma
"Oklahoma City schools approve $603M budget" – NewsOK:

Pennsylvania
"It must be time for the state budget impasse"
For the seventh year, Pennsylvania reigns in a new fiscal year without approving a budget.

South Carolina
"State parks weather economic slump; Visitors, revenue strong despite the recession"

South Dakota
"Pierre schools narrow down budget"

Washington
 "Another $250 million caseload hit to Washington budget"
The economic recession is causing more people to seek public assistance, which has the state considering taping "The Rainy Day Fund" intended to be used during emergencies.  The fund has a balance of $250 million.

West Virginia
"Budget year ends on hopeful notes"

Wisconsin
"State budget includes spurs to technology"
The new state budget put more than $10 million toward investment in Wisconsin's technology economy.  The budget will seek to reduce the deficit by raising $2.1 billion in taxes over the next two years, spending more stimulus money, and cutting state spending and reducing aid for schools and government.