The Boston Globe's lead story: "President wins on defense spending." The Globe says, "Obama scored a major victory" on the F-22 vote.

Video: Rachel Maddow is joined by Rep. Barney Frank, D-MA, to talk about the Senate cutting funding for F-22 fighter jets

The New York Times: "Senate aides said that some Democrats who otherwise might have voted for more planes sided with the president out of concern that a loss could have hurt him in the fight for health care reform. 'The president really needed to win this vote,' Senator Carl Levin, a Democrat from Michigan who led the fight to cut financing for the plane, said after the vote." 

The Washington Post curtain-raises the Maliki visit to DC this week, which begins today with a meeting with President Obama. "Iraq would like the United States to provide more economic support, help resolve problems with some of its neighbors and -- when asked -- assist in combating the myriad security problems it still faces. Otherwise, it would like the Americans to leave it alone. For its part, the Obama administration wants Baghdad to stop the sectarian disagreements that continue to impede economic and political progress, show a little more public respect for U.S. sacrifices on its behalf and start behaving like a normal, oil-rich democracy. Those issues, politely stated, will form the basis of talks during Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's first visit to the Obama White House on Wednesday, according to U.S. and Iraqi officials." 

The administration's auto task force chief, Ron Bloom, found himself on the receiving end of a lot of complaints from Congress over the GM/Chrysler bailouts. 

"An Associated Press-GfK Poll shows that a majority of Americans are back to thinking that the country is headed in the wrong direction after a fleeting period in which more thought it was on the right track. Obama still has a solid 55 percent approval rating -- better than Bill Clinton and about even with George W. Bush six months into their presidencies -- but there are growing doubts about whether he can succeed at some of the biggest items on his to-do list. And there is a growing sense that he is trying to tackle too much too soon."

Video: USA Today's Susan Page and Politico's Jim VandeHei debate whether President Obama's approval ratings, which trail other modern presidents at the six-month mark, will turn around if his embattled health care bill is passed.

Another "Oh, Joe" Moment: In Kiev yesterday, Vice President Biden said, " 'I cannot believe that a Frenchman visiting Kiev went back home and told his colleagues he discovered something, and didn't say he discovered the most beautiful women in the world," he told that country's president through a translator. "It's certain you have so many beautiful women.' It was unclear to reporters on hand which Frenchmen Biden may have been talking about."

The Washington Post does its best at what's become a version of "Kremlinology" -- trying to read the Senate Finance Committee tea leaves. Call it Baucus-ology. Bottom line: There could be a tax on INSURERS, not beneficiaries, for offering expensive plans. Also, the government health plan would be out in favor of a co-op (a la the rural electricity deals). Finally, they are promising that committee work will be DONE by the recess -- which is not meeting the president's deadline.

Video: In a prime-time news conference Wednesday, President Obama will press his plan to overhaul the country's health care system. This comes as some Democrats voice concerns over the president's timeline for the measure. NBC's Savannah Guthrie reports.

"Moderate House Democrats and a key committee chairman emerged from a three-hour meeting at the White House on Tuesday with a tentative agreement to give an outside panel -- rather than Congress -- the power to make cuts to government-financed health care programs," Politico writes. 
 
Roll Call reports the same: "Blue Dogs said Waxman agreed to support an independent commission with the power to control Medicare spending, an idea proposed by Obama but rejected by House chairmen while writing the bill."

But The Hill notes that "If Democrats in the lower chamber do not pass a healthcare reform bill before the recess, it would be seen as a major step backward from the legislative timetable President Obama initially outlined. As recently as last week, leading Democrats were predicting they would pass bills through the House and Senate before adjourning for the summer. The House Energy and Commerce Committee canceled a markup session Tuesday so that Obama could lobby seven centrist Democrats who are threatening to block the bill. Lawmakers said the markup will not resume on Wednesday." 
 
As Democratic aides told First Read yesterday, the "markup has been postponed to accommodate ongoing discussions among Members working to reach consensus."

Blue Dog Dem Mike Ross (D-AR) yesterday said that cost-cutting must be a primary goal of overhauling the health-care system, NBC's Athena Jones reports. Ross spoke after he and other Democratic members of the House Energy and Commerce Committee met with Obama for more than an hour Tuesday to discuss a comprehensive revamp of the health-care system, a conversation he said focused on ways to "bend the cost curve" when it comes to health care, which he said was growing at twice the rate of inflation.

"We talked about ways that we could get health care growing closer to the rate of inflation," Ross said. "There's a number of potential cost cutting measures, which I think the American people expect. Before we consider any kind of new revenue, they want us to squeeze every ounce of savings that we can out of the current system. That's what we're demanding."

Video:

 As President Barack Obama insists the country is closer than ever to overhauling the system, a key Senate committee said Tuesday it has reached agreement on major parts of a health care reform bill. NBC's Chuck Todd reports.

Per NBC's Luke Russert, another Blue Dog -- Baron Hill (D-IN) -- said "We took a major step" yesterday. Hill reiterated that the Blue Dogs were ultimately most concerned with the cost of the bill and that the news from Congressional Budget Office last week that the bill would not be cost effective was "a shot across the bow" for Blue Dogs.

Washington Post columnist Harold Meyerson blasts the Blue Dogs for holding up health care. "Centrist Democrats' opposition to health reform verges on the incoherent. A caucus (the Blue Dogs) formed ostensibly to promote balanced budgets now disapproves of the proposed taxes that would cover the expenses of the new programs. The congressional centrists say, commendably, that they want to squeeze more economies out of the system, but they oppose giving more power to an agency that would set the payment scales for physicians… Why Democrats of any ideology want to cripple their own president in his first year in office, and for seeking an objective that has been a stated goal of their party since the Truman administration, is a more mysterious matter." 

The Hill profiles Sen. Kent Conrad (D-ND) as a thorn in Obama's side, "despite their close friendship and the fact that Conrad was one of Obama's earliest supporters for the White House. Conrad has dealt significant setbacks to Obama's biggest policy proposals: healthcare reform, the budget and a controversial climate change plan."

California may get all the attention nationally, but every state is struggling to close gaps. In North Carolina, it's a tax hike for everyone. "The proposal calls for increases in sales taxes and sin taxes, as well as a two-year surcharge on corporate and individual income taxes for all taxpayers, to raise $990 million. It would put the total budget for this fiscal year at about $18.9 billion. Budget writers are facing an unprecedented drop in revenue, but the exact size of the deficit has been a hot debate. Revenue next year is expected to be more than $4 billion below what it would have taken to keep funding programs and services at recent levels, and Democrats have described the deficit as $4.5 billion or more. Unlike the federal government, the state must have a balanced budget."

Video: An unprecedented deal in California to close the state's budget gap will cut billions from education spending and give early release to thousands of prison inmates. NBC's Miguel Almaguer reports on what could be a sign of things to come in other states.

The Washington Post does the big picture on the state budget issue. "[T]he total shortfall facing all 50 states through fiscal 2011 is estimated at nearly 10 times that figure, or $230 billion, according to state budget officers." 

Is DNC Chairman Tim Kaine moonlighting as Virginia governor, or is Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine moonlighting as DNC chair? 

"Kaine traveled outside the state doing business for the Democratic National Committee half of the days in June, a departure from an initial pledge to limit his work as party chairman to evenings and weekends." More: "According to newly released documents, Kaine's out-of-state travel has accelerated substantially as he has taken on a more visible national role in selling President Obama's agenda, but it has also come as the economic crisis has worsened in Virginia, where the unemployment rate has been rising and state revenue has been falling." 

The New York Times does a C.W.-setting piece on governors' races, and notes the GOP has an opportunity to make inroads. Of course, is this a party issue? Or simply an issue of incumbent governors or incumbent party's in trouble, and Dems have an edge overall so they will take the bigger hit?

ILLINOIS: Illinois State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D) announced that he would officially kick off his Senate candidacy this coming Sunday.

NEW YORK: The NRCC is running ads and robocalls already in NY-23 targeting state Sen. Darrel Aubertine, The Hill's Wilson reports, even BEFORE Rep. John McHugh has stepped down and before Aubertine has even declared for the race. McHugh is vacating the post to become President Obama secretary of the Army. 

PENNSYLVANIA: A new Quinnipiac poll has Specter-Toomey in a dead heat. Per a release, "Arlen Specter's 2010 reelection lead over Republican challenger Pat Toomey has shrunk to a tie with 45 percent for Specter and 44 percent for Toomey, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. And voters say 49 – 40 percent that Sen. Specter does not deserve reelection. President Barack Obama gets a 56 – 37 percent job approval, compared to 62 – 31 percent in a May 28 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. By a bare 50 – 43 percent majority, voters approve of the President's handling of the economy."  

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
CAPITOL HILL -- Ya gotta love House floor speeches.

Today's rhetorical flourishes came courtesy mostly of the House Republicans -- with some colorful Democratic exceptions. 

Video: MSNBC's Lawrence O'Donnell analyzes the Republicans' strategy of intervening in the health care battle despite their lack of political leverage to do so.

Republicans took to the floor en masse to taunt Democrats on unemployment and health care, using a privilege called "one minutes" (which are a series of one-minute speeches). In what was an apparently coordinated message attack, every Republican who took to the podium asked, "Where are the jobs?"

But as is per usual in Washington there was a bevy of what we call, "Only in DC Moments."

What exactly do Garth Brooks and Thelma and Louise have to do with the economy and health care? Don't worry, House Republicans will tell you.

There was Jeff Flake (R) (all loosely transcribed): There's a Garth Brooks song that says, "Wild Horses keep dragging me away ... Wild horses seem to be dragging the Congress away."    

Duncan Hunter (R): I've come to the conclusion Democrats don't like jobs... we've seen this movie before. It's called Thelma and Louise. Democrats are driving us and the economy off the cliff.

And the Democrats...

John Yarmuth (D): When I was a kid in Louisville they kept playing one song over and over again -- Purple People Eater. All Republicans are saying is the same old tired song.

Tough-talking former Sheriff Brad Ellsworth (D), of swing-district Indiana country, derided Republicans' calls of "Where are the jobs?" by holding up an Evansville, Ind., newspaper article (printed out) with the headline: "Stimulus has Hoosiers working."

"The American people are tired of the crap going back and forth," Ellsworth said.

When his office was contacted by First Read to check if we heard correctly, spokeswoman Liz Farrar said, "Yes, that's an accurate quote. He does not believe the political back and forth is constructive in fixing our struggling economy. What can I say? He's a tell it like it is kind of guy."

But wait, there's more...

In another rather entertaining moment, Blaine Luetkemeyer (R-MO), said he hears voices: Get real quiet and rung down the rhetoric, we can hear the voices of our constituents back home, they're asking this question, Where are the jobs? Where are the jobs, Mr. President. What's the solution, second stimulus is being talked about. ... oh, there are those voices again. They're louder this time. Where are the jobs?

Dan Burton presented the health care chart (as did Rep. Kevin Brady): This chart is not a spaghetti dinner though it may look like it. ... There's gonna be jobs created in India and China--health care is going to drive jobs off shore because small businesses can't afford to keep jobs here.

Unemployment, Burton posited, would go to 10, 12, 14, 15 percent "unless they change and change now."

Dave Camp displayed what he calls the Obama Misery Index, which he shows going up each month in 2009.

Cynthia Lummis argued that Obama and the Democrats want her state of Wyoming to go the way of Michigan. She said Wyoming was doing well economically before "cap and tax." Now, unemployment has doubled, she said. (But, just asking, how can unemployment be cap and trade's fault when it hasn't even been taken up by the Senate and therefore not even law yet?)

Gresham Barrett: What I'm talking about is not socialism. It's freedom. It's freedom. ... Where are the jobs?

Glenn Thompson: Where are the jobs?

Pete Hoekstra: Where are the jobs?

John Campbell: "This is not reform; this is just nuts."

From NBC's Luke Russert

Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD) expressed optimism for passing health-care reform possibly by the end of next week saying, "I believe we are going to get to a place where we can create consensus where there will be agreement." Later he added, "We have every intention of passing health care and we want to pass it next week."
 

Hoyer, speaking in his weekly off-camera briefing with Capitol Hill reporters, started off by vehemently going after Republicans who have suggested that Democrats are rushing health-care reform through Congress: "In the last 18 months, we've been discussing it extensively. This is not a rush to judgment."
 
Hoyer then pushed what is now a popular Democratic talking point after Republican Sen. Jim DeMint's comment that health-care reform would be Obama's "Waterloo," Hoyer said: "This is consistent with what Republicans are trying to do. Their interest is much more in making failure happen then progress for the American people."
 
While much has been made of the infighting between Democrats in recent weeks over health-care reform, Hoyer attempted to calm the situation by reiterating that every Democrat wants to see health-care reform passed, "People are at the table, because it confirms the fact that everybody wants to see a health-care reform bill that they can vote for."
 
On the subject of the Blue Dog Democrats and their reluctance to support the bill in its current state, Hoyer said, "I think we need to resolve an issue that is not a Blue Dog issue but an issue Blue Dogs care about which is this issue of disparity of reimbursement from region to region." He continued that the Democratic leadership was "very seriously considering the opinions of people who are not yet for the bill in its present form."
 
Hoyer defended the inclusion of a surcharge on the wealthy within the health-care reform bill, painting it as an option needed to ensure the bill is paid for: "The surcharge is one proposal to fund the cost of initially getting everybody into the system."

He then focused on savings that the Congressional Budget Office has missed as reasons why the surcharge may not be needed: "We believe there are many cost savers in this bill that are not subject to being scored. Which is understandable as well. Nobody believes that emphasis on prevention and wellness won't make people healthier and therefore save dollars. But for the CBO it's not tangible enough to score it."
 
Hoyer made the point that the House bill would contain a public option, something many Blue Dog Democrats have been fearful of voting for. "I think there is going to be a public option," the majority leader said. "I don't think the public option is a non-negotiable item for the Blue Dogs."
 
Another poison pill for health-care reform has been the unwillingness of 20 House Democrats to vote for a bill that contains funding for abortions. On the issue, Hoyer again expressed confidence.

"There are very strong feelings on both sides of that issue," he said, "and we are working to resolve them, so that we have the votes to pass this bill."
 
When pressed on whether or not the House can pass health-care reform by July 31st and before the August recess, Hoyer left the door open for the House staying in session into August saying, "I don't think staying in session is necessary to getting consensus."

However, he then added, "We'll see. I'll make that decision next week. I'm not going to make it now." 

From NBC's Michelle Perry and Mark Murray
On MSNBC this afternoon, New Hampshire Sen. Judd Gregg (R) told NBC's Andrea Mitchell that he had no regrets about turning down the opportunity to be President Obama's Commerce secretary.

Video: Sen. Judd Gregg, R-N.H., discusses some of the factors which may prevent a health care bill from being passed before Congress breaks for their August recess.

"I wouldn't have been any good on health-care defense, and wouldn't have been good on [the] budget. I made the right decision; I just should have made it sooner."

Mitchell interjected, "You weren't going to be great cheerleader?"

Gregg replied, "That's true."

Video:

 Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Ore., discusses the major push Democratic leaders are launching to win over health care critics within their own party.

Also, Mitchell interviewed Oregon Sen. Ron Wyden (D), who said he'd be willing to work through the August recess to hammer out a health-care bill. Mitchell asked Wyden what his wife thought about that.

He said she wasn't exactly thrilled.

From NBC's Ken Strickland
Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus today announced that a bipartisan group of committee members have "locked down and agreed" on two "major issues" of their version of the health-care reform bill. But Baucus refused to give specific details on which provisions agreement was reached.

He did said the agreement was on a policy provisions -- not issues that address how to pay for the massive reform. "Major issues," Baucus said, "issues that have been in the public domain for a good time."

Video: As lawmakers hammer out health care reform, which state plans are working and which face serious recession cost issues? NBC's Dr. Nancy Snyderman takes a look at Oregon and Massachusetts.

Democratic Sen. Kent Conrad is a member of group. He also refused to divulge specifics on the agreements, but appeared personally pleased with the deal. Conrad has been the driving force behind developing insurance cooperatives (co-ops) that would complete against private insurance plans. 

"I don't think it's my place to go into the details," he said. "It's been a very good day. I'm a very happy guy."

Beside Baucus and Conrad, the group consist of Chuck Grassley (R-IA), Orrin Hatch (R-UT), Olympia Snowe (R-ME), Mike Enzi (R-WY), and Jeff Bingaman (D-NM). Baucus says the group will meet again today at 3:00 pm and 7:00 pm ET.

From NBC's Mark Murray
As the political world waits for Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus (D-MT) to unveil his health-care bill, the liberal groups Progressive Change Campaign Committee and Democracy for America are running a TV ad in Montana the presses the senator to back a public/government option.

[Youtube:izNe4Bw_Ars]

The ad comes as the Washington Post reports that health-related companies and their employees "gave Baucus's political committees nearly $1.5 million in 2007 and 2008, when he began holding hearings and making preparations for this year's reform debate."

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
The longest-serving U.S. senator in history, 91-year-old Robert Byrd

, of West Virginia, cast his first vote today after a long absence due to illness.

Byrd spent more than six weeks in the hospital and returned to the Hill for the first time today.

Byrd voted against President Obama today on the F-22.  Byrd voted to continue production of the F-22 fighter jet.

From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell, Jim Miklaszewski, and Mark Murray
In a victory for the Obama administration, as well as for Sen. John McCain

(R-AZ), the purchase of new F-22 fighter jets was stripped form the Defense authorization bill.

The vote was 58-40, and only a simple majority was needed to pass the amendment -- authored by McCain and Carl Levin

(D-MI) -- stripping the F-22 money.

President Obama had threatened his first veto if the money for additional F-22s was in the bill. Both the Bush and Obama administrations were in agreement on ending production of the jet. But many in Congress wanted to keep the production line going, often citing jobs as a reason.

The Pentagon already has 183 of the jets with plans for four more. The McCain-Levin amendment removed $1.75 billion to build seven additional F-22s.

Video: President Obama commends the Senate on its vote to reject funding for seven new F-22 jets, saying the money is better spent on other military priorities.

The Pentagon released this statement: "Secretary Gates appreciates the careful consideration Senators have given to this matter of national security and he applauds their bipartisan support to complete the F-22 program at 187 planes. He understands that for many members this was a very difficult vote, but he believes that the Pentagon cannot continue with business as usual when it comes to the F-22 or any other program in excess to our needs. Today's vote is an important step in that direction and the secretary looks forward to working closely with lawmakers as President Obama's budget is debated in the coming months."

In remarks he made at the White House, Obama said he was "grateful" for amendment's passage vote, saying that military experts have agreed that the U.S. doesn't need more F-22s. "This would have been an inexcusable waste of money," he said. "If more money goes to F-22s, it is our troops and citizens who lose."

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
House Republicans continued their opposition to the House version of health reform, highlighted what they called Democrats' infighting and took shots at President Obama's approach.

"I commend the Blue Dog Democrats" who are "expressing concern on the cost of the bill," Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN) told reporters following the Republicans' weekly meeting. He added, "I understand they're going to get the extended tour" of the White House. (Several so-called moderate Blue Dog Democrats, who have expressed some concerns over the details of the health-care plan, were asked to the White House today.)

"I tell people, 'The woodshed's not on the regular tour,'" Pence added, after reminiscing -- with a chuckle -- of times he was invited to the White House during the Bush administration.

Video: Rep. James Clyburn, D-S.C.,  joins MSNBC's Carlos Watson to talk about President Barack Obama's determination to pass his health care plan on time despite his admission that the bills themselves are not yet "where they need to be."

John Boehner, the House Republican Minority Leader, questioned how much political capital the White House and House Democratic leadership had left within their own party.

"Some Democrats got their arms broken" during the energy fight, Boehner said. "Now there are no more arms to break."

The House energy bill passed narrowly almost a month ago. It faces an potentially even steeper fight in the Senate.

"There's bipartisan opposition to this," Rep. Eric Cantor (R-VA) said of the current version of health reform. "Either this bill fails or it will change dramatically."

He added, "This administration has no one else to blame," "no straw men," "no press conference left." (Obama is holding a prime-time press conference tomorrow night, and he has done several rounds of broadcast interviews.)

Boehner called Obama's public push "barnstorming" that won't work. He said health reform being proposed costs too much and does not provide affordable access.

"So, Mr. President," Boehner said, directly addressing the array of cameras in front of him, "It's time to scrap this bill. Let's start over in a bipartisan way."

Republicans tried to argue for a narrow distinction. They contended, on one hand, that they support some form of health-care reform, but, on the other, saying that what House Democrats and President Obama want is unnecessary and would cost roughly five million jobs.

(Here's where they get this estimate, which is based on prior studies compiled by White House economic advisers Jared Bernstein and Christina Romer, and have to do with an "employer mandate.")

"Energy independence is a right," Pence argued, adding, "Health care should be done correctly." But, he said, "We're asking, 'Where are the jobs?'"

After the news conference, Pence told a small group of reporters in a back hallway here off the West End front where  Obama delivered his inaugural speech, that the "Republicans support health reform."

But he criticized Obama's approach, saying he's "not optimistic after six months of heavy handed tactics by the White House and House Democrats." (Part of what Pence considers Obama's "heavy handed" approach is the president's continued public demand for Congress to get him a bill to sign.)

When asked by NBC what specifics Republicans would actually support in a health-reform bill, Pence pointed to: (1) Health savings accounts, and (2) A version of a co-op plan. But, he said, "It seems this administration is in a headlong rush to push government health insurance" and pay for it "with $1 trillion."

Video: Sen. Tom Coburn, R-Okla., a practicing physician, and Sen. John Barasso, R-Wyo., an orthopedic trauma surgeon, join Morning Joe to talk about the danger of having a government-managed health care system.

Health savings accounts have been a non-starter with Democrats; a co-op plan -- instead of a so-call public/government-run option -- was proposed by North Dakota Democrat Kent Conrad, a senator who sits on the powerful Finance Committee.

Details of a Finance Committee health-care plan could come today or tomorrow. Sen. Max Baucus indicated there is a tentative deal on some of the sticking points in its health-care bill, but they're still not quite all the way there. It's still possible that a co-op could be what Finance decides on, but it would raise the ire of liberals.

From NBC's Pete Williams, Ken Strickland, and Mark Murray
The Senate Judiciary Committee will vote on the Sotomayor

 nomination next Tuesday, July 28th, said the committee chairman, Patrick Leahy of Vermont.

Republican senators asked for a one-week delay on the vote, which is customarily granted, Leahy said.

Meanwhile, Maine Sen. Susan Collins has become the fourth Republican senator to announce support for Sotomayor, joining Dick Lugar, Mel Martinez, and Olympia Snowe.

"I have decided to vote in favor of Judge Sonia Sotomayor to serve as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court," Collins said in a statement. "The decision of whether to confirm a nominee to the Supreme Court is a solemn responsibility of the Senate and one that I approach with the utmost care... I know that I will not agree with every decision Justice Sotomayor reaches on the Court, just as I disagree with some of her previous decisions. However, upon reading these decisions, talking personally with her, and hearing her responses to probing questions, I have concluded that Judge Sotomayor understands the proper rule of a judge and is committed to applying the law impartially without bias or favoritism." 

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** Finding an enemy: You can mark yesterday as perhaps a key turning point in the fight over health-care reform. Why? Because President Obama and the White House found a political enemy in South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint (R), who earlier said that health care could be Obama's "Waterloo" and could "break" him politically. Obama replied yesterday: "Think about that. This isn't about me. This isn't about politics. This is about a health-care system that is breaking America's families." As it turns out, Obama is much more comfortable when he has someone to run against. He hasn't really had that … until now. Will Republicans regret turning this into a political fight? Polls, including yesterday's Washington Post/ABC survey, show that the public trusts Obama more than Republicans on health care. And that means they're more likely to side with the president in a political fight, even if they aren't convinced his plan is the right one.

Video: The Washington Post's Eugene Robinson debates with a Morning Joe panel whether the Obama administration needs to take a more reasonable approach to achieving health care reform.

*** Risk vs. reward: Of course, Republicans would have drawn criticism had they not attempted to seize this political opportunity. So the GOP strategy of turning this into a political fight was something they had to attempt, because the reward is great (see DeMint's prediction). But it may have given the president a lifeline -- just as he was showing a growing frustration with members of HIS OWN party. But, suddenly, the president looks much more comfortable when back to campaign mode, running against Republicans.

*** Playing into Obama's hands? Honest question: Is this "Will it pass or won't it?" drama on health care actually playing right into Obama's hands? Truth is, with the Democrats at 60 in the Senate and with a very strong majority in the House, they are -- more than likely -- going to be able to pass health care, especially when you have Senate Republicans like Chuck Grassley and Olympia Snowe who still apparently want to play ball. As a result, any victory Obama gets on health care is going to look more significant. Then again, he's got to achieve that victory first, and that's why he's meeting today with House Democrats on Energy and Commerce Committee, to get them to pass the House bill.

Video: Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Ore., talks about the large group of moderate senators who share President Obama's goal to fix health care this year, but disagree with his timetable.

*** Seizing the bully pulpit: Another day, another example of President Obama seizing the bully pulpit to press for health-care reform. At 1:05 pm ET (before meeting with those House Democrats), he once again delivers brief remarks on the subject from the White House -- the eighth day in the last nine in which he spoken on health care (in some form or fashion) since returning from his recent overseas trip. Yet another example was his interview with NBC's Meredith Vieira on TODAY. On why he set an August deadline to get health-care bills passed through the House and Senate: "Well, because if you don't set a deadline in this town, nothing happens. You know, the default in Washington is inaction and inertia. And there's a reason why we haven't had health-care reform in 50 years." But in a separate interview with PBS, Obama did admit that the deadline could "spill over." He said, "You've been around here long enough to know that you have to say, 'Get this done.' If somebody comes to me and says, 'It's basically done; it's going to spill over by a few days or a week,' you know, that's different."

*** The Great American Health Care Fight: Other health-care developments: It looks like the surtax on high-income earners is more on life support than Republicans wish, because it was turning into an easy thing to attack Democrats over… The U.S. Chamber of Commerce holds a conference call with reporters at 2:00 pm ET today to announce a multi-million-dollar ad campaign to protect "employer-sponsored health care"…  Obama held a conference call with liberal bloggers last night… Has Obama lost David Brooks? The White House's favorite non-liberal columnist unloads on House Dem "old bulls" … And everyone is waiting to see if today's the day that the Senate Finance Committee releases its health-care bill.

*** Birth(ers) of a Nation: Remember that McCain event last year during the presidential campaign, when a woman asked if Barack Obama was an Arab? Well, that's nothing compared to YouTube clip of a Rep. Mike Castle (R-DE) town hall, in which a woman carries on and on about Obama's citizenship and birth certificate. Let's get something straight: If Obama weren't a United States citizen, don't you think the Clinton campaign (first) or the McCain camp (second) would have said something during the two-year-long presidential campaign? (In fact, McCain, who was born in the Panama Canal Zone, was the one who had the bigger potential legal question mark about his eligibility for the presidency.) But the real story in all of this is that Republican Party has a HUGE problem with its base right now. That some Republicans believe a man who won last year's presidential contest by seven percentage points is not the legitimate president is a base problem much bigger than Cindy Sheehan anti-war protestors or black helicopter conspiracy theorists who flock to some Ron Paul events. Check out how flummoxed Castle looked. How many other Republican elected officials are dealing with questioners like this woman? Meanwhile, did Lou Dobbs really GO THERE? Seriously? This is getting absurd.

*** Mr. Unpopular: Here's more evidence that simply BEING a governor is an unpopular job these days, per a new Quinnipiac poll: "Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell's job approval rating has shrunk to its lowest level ever, 39 - 53 percent negative, and voters see him as most responsible for the state's budget mess." What has Rendell done wrong other than be chief executive of a state running out of money. You can write this storyline about some 35 of the 50 governors. By the way, California struck a budget deal… FINALLY. It's ugly for all involved.

*** Sotomayor news: At 10:00 am ET, the Senate Judiciary Committee will gather to consider Sonia Sotomayor's Supreme Court nomination, and some members will hold a stakeout afterward. It's expected that Republicans will move to delay a committee vote on her nomination until next week. That said, the full Senate vote is still on target before the chamber departs for its August recess. Meanwhile, has Sotomayor become a campaign wedge issue for some Republicans seeking re-election in 2010? If so, keep tabs on Richard Burr's vote. The normally down-the-line conservative from a swing state is undecided.

*** Elsewhere today: Vice President Biden

is in Ukraine and Georgia through Friday… Secretary of State Clinton is in Bangkok, where she meets with the Thai prime minister… Fed Chair Ben Bernanke testifies at 10:00 am ET before House Financial Services (Bernanke is getting more political grief from BOTH sides of Pennsylvania Ave, by the way) … TARP Special Inspector General Neil Barofsky testifies on his TARP report before House Oversight and Government Reform at 10:00 am… And Chu on this: Energy Secretary Steven Chu appears tonight on "The Daily Show," and he also launches Facebook and YouTube to discuss energy and climate change.

*** Two steppin' with the Obamas: Finally, the White House will host a country music celebration tonight, with country acts like Brad Paisley, Alison Krauss, and Charley Pride.

Countdown to Palin Stepping Down: 5 days
Countdown to Election Day 2009: 105 days
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 469 days

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The New York Daily News: "President Obama opened fire at "political" opponents of health care reform Monday."

"As we proceed through this debate, it's important for the public to know that Republican opposition is not substantive, it's political," a senior White House official said, per Roll Call. "There will be a 'big backlash against Republicans' if they are seen as willing to sink health reform 'to score political points,' the official said."

Video: President Obama has demanded Congress move quickly on passing his health care plan, while some Republicans seem to see the health care reform debate as an opportunity to score cheap political points. Rachel Maddow is joined by Gov. Ed Rendell, D-PA.

The Washington Post looks at the Republicans: "Lacking unity on an alternative agenda to Obama's health-care plans, Republicans have instead focused on a strategy of rallying public opposition and wooing the conservative Democrats in Congress, whose votes will ultimately determine the fate of any health-care bill. That plan depends in large part on Congress going on break before it votes on a bill. On Monday, though, Republicans made clear that they see an opportunity to derail the legislation now."

In his interview with PBS yesterday, Obama said he'd veto a bill that taxed health-care benefits. He mentioned John McCain's proposed health-care plan and his own attacks on it during the campaign. And there continued to be a "fierce urgency" in the president's voice: "I want this done now," Obama said. "Now, if there are no deadlines, nothing gets done in this town."

Video: TODAY's Meredith Vieira talks to President Obama about his push for health care reform.

Roll Call: "Obama will speak again about health care reform Tuesday afternoon, offering brief remarks at the White House. After his comments, he will meet with Democratic members of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, which began marking up reform legislation Monday."

Administration officials say reports from task forces ordered by President Obama on detainee and interrogation policy will be delayed, NBC's Pete Williams reports. Both were due this week, under the terms of executive orders he signed on his first full day in office.  Delays were authorized at that time if the task forces he appointed needed more time.

Officials say they will, indeed, need more time to make their recommendations to the president on long-term policies for detention and interrogation. But officials say the goal of closing the detention center at Guantanamo Bay by next January remains on track.

Video: Rachel Maddow reports on the Guantanamo closure delay.

The AP adds, "The Obama administration on Monday pushed back its own deadline for devising new anti-terrorism policies. The decision had been expected, as presidentially appointed task forces have failed to meet a six-month schedule for making policy recommendations on how terror suspects should be interrogated, held in custody or handed over to other countries."

"Trust in President Barack Obama and his Democratic allies to identify the right solutions to problems facing the country has dropped off significantly since March, according to a new Public Strategies Inc./POLITICO poll. Just as Obama intensifies his efforts to fulfill a campaign promise and reach an agreement with Congress on health care reform, the number of Americans who say they trust the president has fallen from 66 percent to 54 percent. At the same time, the percentage of those who say they do not trust the president has jumped from 31 to 42."

More: "But whatever the problems faced by Obama and his party, they still earn higher approval ratings than other Washington leaders or the Republican Party, according to the Public Trust Monitor poll. And the loss in trust in Democrats did not correspond with a gain for the GOP: Trust in Republicans fell from 40 percent in March to 36 percent in the recent survey."

According to the TARP inspector general, the U.S. could lose up to $24 trillion as a result of the bailouts.

Obama -- good for K Street? "Sweeping proposals to reform the energy, healthcare and financial-services sectors helped K Street shake off a slow start to the year," The Hill notes. 
 
The Pentagon wants to add 22,000 to the Army rolls.

Roll Call also says, according to its analysis, that the House plan actually costs $1.6 trillion, not $1 trillion. "[D]espite more than $800 billion in tax and fee hikes, it actually adds $239 billion to the deficit, according to the CBO. The $1 trillion figure Democrats want reporters to use leaves out major pieces of the bill — notably a $245 billion provision intended to prevent a scheduled cut to doctors' pay under Medicare. Democrats have conveniently decided to exempt that provision from their pay-as-you-go budget rule."

Video: As President Barack Obama stepped up the rhetoric Monday urging the imminent passage of a health care bill, he and his critics squared off over the politics and price-tag of reform. NBC's Chuck Todd reports.

The AP: "Democrats on the House Energy and Commerce Committee - the only one of three House panels weighing health overhaul legislation that has yet to pass it - were to meet with the president Tuesday afternoon, the White House announced. That follows a committee drafting session that lasted past midnight Monday as panel members slogged through numerous amendments, with majority Democrats turning back Republican attempts to change the bill. But Committee Chairman Henry Waxman's bigger difficulties were with his own party, particularly a bloc of fiscally conservative Democrats who oppose the legislation in its current form over costs and other issues."

But the likely place where a health bill could get done is in the Senate Finance Committee. Roll Call: "A closed-door meeting of bipartisan Senate Finance Committee negotiators broke up Monday night with lawmakers appearing increasingly optimistic that a deal was within reach, although no timetable was given for when a bill might be ready for markup. Finance Chairman Max Baucus (D-Mont.) said after the meeting that the group of six Senators — three Democrats and three Republicans — have "tentatively" reached an agreement on four or five of the about 12 issues that need to be negotiated, although he declined to elaborate."

So North Carolina Republican Sen. Richard Burr is a "maybe" on confirming Sotomayor -- and he's up for re-election in 2010 in a swing state. Hmmmm

Video: According to Intrade.com, the odds of Judge Sonia Sotomayor being confirmed with a strong majority are 77.5 percent.

From his spokesperson: "He will be able to make a more thorough assessment of her  qualifications after meeting with her next week and asking specific, substantive questions to ensure that she is committed to upholding the Constitution and the rights and freedoms it protects," Ward said in a statement.

Politics Daily's Jill Lawrence looks at some of the Republicans' advantages -- as well as the Democrats' disadvantages -- heading into the 2010 midterms. 

CONNECTICUT: Chris Dodd

as Ted Kennedy has been helpful to the Connecticut senator's fundraising -- more so than if he were still just Banking Committee Chairman Dodd. "Dodd, the acting chairman of the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions (HELP) Committee, has branched out his fundraising operation by tapping healthcare-related companies for more than $112,000 in the second quarter of 2009. The sum represents a good chunk of the more than $450,000 Dodd accumulated from PACs in the second quarter."

The Washington Post notes how Dodd is trying to distance himself from the same set of financial firms who have supported him for decades.

ILLINOIS: Roll Call says that without Mark Kirk in IL-10, it could be an uphill fight for Republicans to hold on to the seat. But both sides likely face primaries, and the Democrats are waiting to see what Dan Seals does. Seals lost in both 2006 and 2008 to Kirk. He would bring name ID, but Dems are worried about giving him a third shot.

MICHIGAN: "Businessman Rick Snyder is expected on Tuesday to jump into the race to become Michigan's next governor and join a crowded field of Republicans looking to take the state's top elected post next year," the AP reports. Snyder, an Ann Arbor venture capitalist and former president of computer maker Gateway Inc., has media events scheduled for Dearborn, Flint, Lansing and Grand Rapids. A relative newcomer to Michigan's political scene, the 50-year-old Snyder may have to mount an expensive campaign to promote his name and political platform. But being considered an outsider -- and stressing his successful business background -- could help him in a state that has had the nation's highest annual average unemployment rate since 2006."

NEW JERSEY: Republican gubernatorial nominee Chris Christie made his pick for lieutenant governor -- Kim Guadagno, a county sheriff and former federal prosecutor.  Christie made the announcement on YouTube, as well as Facebook and Twitter. Columnist Alan Steinberg called the Guadagno pick a "political masterstroke," noting her conservative bona fides and political acumen, despite her pro-choice stance.

A Hill focus group found that Corzine's (as well as Chris Dodd's) TV ads fared poorly, as compared to competitors'.

NEW YORK: President Bill Clinton

hosted a fundraiser last night for New York Rep. Carolyn Maloney, who is challenging Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand for the senate seat vacated by now-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. The even brought in about $300,000, per the New York Post. But the event was overshadowed by a controversy involving Maloney having used the n-word. She apparently said it while relaying a story to a monthly newspaper. Maloney admitted to using the word and apologized yesterday.  "I apologize for having repeated a word I find disgusting," Maloney said. She was quoted in the publication saying: "I got a call from someone from Puerto Rico, [who] said [Gillibrand] went to Puerto Rico and came out for English-only [education]. And he said, 'It was like saying n- - - -r to a Puerto Rican.'" Maloney's further explained: "It's no excuse, but I was so caught up in relaying the story exactly as it was told to me that, in doing so, I repeated a word that should never be repeated."

The New York Daily News puts the controversy on its cover. Over a photo of Maloney, the headline: "It's a sorry start."

From NBC's Michelle Perry
The chairman of the Senate Budget Committee, Sen. Kent Conrad (D-ND) says it's not up to the Congressional Budget Office to support the health-care reform proposals put forth by his fellow Democrats in Congress. Conrad defended the CBO's less-than-favorable assessment of the current proposals, telling Andrea Mitchell on MSNBC today, "We can all question CBO scoring. There are things I don't agree with....but at the end of the day we have got to have an objective scorekeeper."

Video: With only three weeks until the Senate breaks for August recess, will Congress be able to merge the five health care plans currently circling on the Hill into a bill the president will sign? Sen. Kent Conrad, D-N.D., discusses.

It was Conrad's question to CBO chief Doug Elmendorf that started the latest round of opposition to Obama's health-care reform, when he appeared before the Budget Committee last week.

The exchange was as follows:

CONRAD: Everyone has said that bending cost curve over time is critically important and one of key goals of effort...from what you've seen...do you see a successful effort being mounted to bend long term cost curve?

ELMENDORF: No, Mr. chairman

CONRAD:  So the cost curve in your judgment is being bent, but it is being bent the wrong way. Is that correct?

ELMENDORF: The way I would put it is that the curve is being raised, so there is a justifiable focus on growth rates because, of course, it is the compounding of growth rates faster than the economy that leads to these unsustainable paths. 

When asked about the White House argument that Elmendorf wasn't taking into account preventative health measures such as wellness and technology, Conrad said, "It may be that the CBO isn't giving us the kind of scores we would like to see but at the end of the day, they're the ones we have to rely on to keep us on track."

And of the president's August deadline for putting out a proposal, Conrad, a member of the Finance Committee charged with getting it done said, "All the stars would have to be in alignment to get it done in the next three weeks, but what's critically important here is that we do bend the cost curve right and virtually every economist that has come before us has said reducing the tax subsidy for healthcare which is 2.4 trillion over the next ten years should be part of it."

From NBC's Pete Williams

A group representing more than 400 U.S. mayors is urging Congress to defeat a measure -- one that could come to a vote today in the U.S. Senate -- that would require states granting concealed weapons permits to honor permits issued by any other state.

Whether concealed weapons laws reduce crime is a hotly contested issue, but Sen. John Thune, the South Dakota Republican who proposed the measure, says the laws are effective. 

"Since criminals are unable to tell who is and who is not carrying a firearm just by looking at a potential victim," he said, "they are less likely to commit crimes when they fear that they may come in direct contact with an individual who is armed."

He added, "Minorities and women tend to be the ones with the most to gain from being allowed to protect themselves." 

All states but two, Illinois and Wisconsin, grant licenses to carry concealed weapons, but the standards vary greatly. Some states, for example, require applicants to take gun safety programs and pass written tests. Others refuse permits to anyone with misdemeanor gun convictions. 

Nine states have already chosen to honor permits issued elsewhere. The Thune measure would require the same of the remaining concealed carry states. Supporters say it would also require concealed carry states to recognize the rights of Alaska and Vermont residents, whose states do not require a permit in order to carry a concealed weapon.

Opponents of the idea say it would reduce all states to the lowest common denominator, since a permit granted by a relatively permissive state would have to be honored in states with more restrictive rules.  

In a letter signed today, New York's Michael Bloomberg, Boston's Thomas Menino, and hundreds of other mayors urge Congress to defeat the measure, now scheduled to come to the Senate floor as an amendment to a defense-spending bill. They claim it could make it much harder for police to determine who's legally carrying guns.

"Ambiguity as to the legality of firearm possession could lead to confusion among police officers that could result in catastrophic incidences," the mayors write. "Congress should be working to make the job of a police officer more safe, not less."

The Mayors Against Illegal Guns Action Fund is also running print ads against the amendment. In Virginia, for example, it is running one in the Richmond Times-Dispatch today featuring families of Virginia Tech victims and survivors.

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
In the New Jersey gubernatorial race, The Corzine (D)

campaign has taken to taunting Chris Christie (R) with a Web site it calls "Christie Facts."

Corzine supporters -- and inquiring reporters -- got a text message this afternoon touting the site with this message:

Just launched: http//ChristieFacts.com today. Please pass this on to friends. Keep Chris Christie honest about his right wing record as this race heats up.

The Web site is a faux news site that tries to define Christie as too conservative for New Jersey. During the Republican primary, Christie was billed as the more moderate candidate. But this site tries to knock that perception down.

Sections: A snarky "About Chris" one, "No-bid contracts," "Videos & Clips," "Latest News," and "Did you know?"

It has a section called "5 things you should know about Chris Christie," including, "5. Promises to fight Obama," "4. Conservative right-wing values," "3. Opposes gun control," "2. Would reject stimulus funds," "1. Christie is anti-choice." In the upper right, tucked away is a Q&A from Fox: "Q: Are you a conservative or moderate?" "A: I'm conservative."

*** UPDATE *** The Republican Governors Association responds: "A better use of his money would be to spend it apologizing to New Jerseyans for increasing their taxes by billions and letting unemployment skyrocket," spokesman Mike Schrimpf said. 

From NBC's Betsy Cline
Former House Speaker (and possible 2012 presidential candidate) Newt Gingrich

says the United States is "living on the edge of catastrophe" as it relates to national security. In a tone that appeared to belie the urgency of his message, Gingrich named a laundry list of threats to worry about: electromagnetic pulse attacks, biological weapons, cyber attacks (what he calls weapons of mass disruption), unprotected assets in outer space, and dangers unknown.
 
Gingrich mostly blamed budget issues for the security risks facing the country. "We need a safety-oriented defense budget, not a budget director-oriented defense budget," because "we're more worried about saving a few million dollars as opposed to few million lives."
 
Mentioning the ongoing wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, Gingrich said the U.S. is "drifting into the belief that this is the condition we live in, not a war to be won." He says this mindset just empowers the enemy.
 
Gingrich also briefly touched on a few issues of the day. Continuing to dismiss the Democratic efforts to reform health care, he repeated that health care needs reform -- but not at the cost of the Democrats' proposal.
 
And in response to a question about Judge Sonia Sotomayor, Gingrich said he's interested to see if she's the moderate person who testified before the Senate Judiciary Committee -- or the person who made the speeches with what he called "racial components."
 
"When it's Chuck Schumer reassuring the committee that she's moderate, they've got a huge liability," he said.

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro and Michelle Perry
President Obama continued to use the bully pulpit today to try and push health-care reform.

He urged that the time is now to pass health-care reform and said he knows that there is "a tendency toward inertia" in Washington.

As we've noted previously, the White House is butting up against the August rececss for both chambers to pass its own bills. It would be advantageous for the White House to get bills out before that recess, because there is a risk that moderate Democrats and Republicans -- who might have voted for reform -- go home, hear complaints from (their loudest) constituents and then rescind support.

VIDEO: Pushing for health care: July 20: With time running out before Congress takes recess, can President Barack Obama hold on to his self-imposed August deadline despite strong criticism from inside his own party? Nancy Ann DeParle, director of the White House Office of Health Reform, discusses.

Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) told NBC's Andrea Mitchell on MSNBC's Andrea Mitchell Reports that there has been "steady" but "slow" progress in the Finance Committee on its bill. "There is progress being made," Grassley said.

The Finance Committee represents perhaps the last, best chance for the White House to get health reform passed.

The House bill got a shot in the arm when the American Medical Association endorsed it last week. But it took a hit when the Congressional Budget Office's chief said it would bend the cost curve upward not downward.

The president has said he wants it to be deficit neutral, and anything short of that, would be difficult to reconcile politically.

Grassley acknowledged the key role the committee is playing.

Video: The Senate Finance Committee is still working on a compromise care bill that committee chairman, Sen. Max Baucus, D-Mont., is hoping will gain Republican support. Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, discusses.

"Bending the curve downward is going to happen in the Senate Finance Committee," he said, "or they aren't going to do it."

It does appear they are close, however. Grassley said his staff and Chairman Max Baucus' (D-MT) have been in ongoing negotiations and that they are making progress.

Grassley said there is a $200 billion hole that has to be plugged before the committee can unveil its plan. He expressed frustration with the limited revenue streams that exist -- and that are acceptable to all sides -- to pay for it. Where's it going to come from? "I don't have an answer for you except that we're looking," Grassley said.

Grassley said -- without hesitation -- that the so-called House surtax is "definitely off the table," he said. "It hurts small business."

The House surtax would raise taxes on the highest income earners -- those making more than $280,000 per year.

Nancy-Ann Deparle, director of the White House Office of health reform, she is confident health care would happen on the president's timeline.

"I definitely think we can make it," Deparle told Mitchell.

Deparle said she will be talking to Baucus later today on the committee's progress. She added that the Montana senator is on board to make health reform happen.

From NBC's Alex Beinstein
Michael Steele and the RNC aren't the only ones hitting President Obama on health care today.

Video: The chairman of the Republican Party says Republicans will do "everything humanly possible to remind voters about the risky experimentation going on in Washington."

In an op-ed in Politico, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal writes, "I know a little something about health care policy, and I can tell you exactly the game that is currently afoot. If the House Democrats' plan were to become law, the president's statement that 'if you like your health care now, you can keep it' will not be true. This is not an opinion, this is a fact."

Jindal continues, "Businesses will, in effect, be forced to send employees into the Democrats' government-run health care. It's really not something to argue about, it is a fact. A private health insurance system, otherwise known as what we have today, will not be able to compete with a taxpayer-subsidized government plan, and businesses faced with growing health care costs will opt to either lay off more workers or send employees into the government plan. One independent study already suggested that up to 119 million Americans will end up leaving their private plans for the public plan. To think otherwise requires one to suspend disbelief."

Minority Leader John Boehner also joins in on the criticism with an op-ed in Yahoo News. "Not only will the Democrats' government-run health care plan raise your costs, but it also will raise costs for our nation's employers – particularly small businesses. At the heart of their proposal is a small business tax that, for tens of millions, means diminished job security. The National Federation of Independent Businesses warns that the small business tax and mandates in the Democrats' plan will destroy 1.6 million jobs – one million of them in small businesses alone."